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42nd NOAA Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop 23-26 October 2017, Norman, OK Climate Prediction S&T Digest |
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CONTENTS PREFACE 1. RECENT EVENTS California from drought to deluge within the framework of winter stationary waves by Simon Wang, Utah State University; Emily Becker, Jinho Yoon, Rob Gillies by Binod Pokharel, Utah State University; S.-Y. Simon Wang, Yen-Heng Lin, Lin Zhao, and Robert Gillies An overview of the 2016-17 La Niña and return to neutral conditions by Michelle L'Heureux, NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center Relation between a Rossby wave-breaking event and enhanced convective activities in August 2016 by Kazuto Takemura, Climate Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency; Yutaro Kubo, and Shuhei Maeda The sudden onset of the current 2017 northern High Plains drought by Muthuvel Chelliah, NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center; David Miskus The Australian climate of 2016; A strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole dominates by Catherine Ganter, Bureau of Meteorology, Australia; Andrew Watkins, and Felicity Gamble Causality and sub-seasonal predictability of the 2016 Yangtze River extreme rainfall by Xing Yuan, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences; Shanshan Wang, and Zeng-Zhen Hu 2. SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL EXTREMES by Bryan Mundhenk, Colorado State University; Elizabeth Barnes, Eric Maloney, and Cory Baggett The impact of El Niño on winter and early spring U.S. tornado outbreaks (INVITED) by Ashton Robinson Cook, NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center; Lance M. Leslie, David B. Parsons, and Joseph T. Schaefer Extratropical impacts on Atlantic tropical cyclone activity via Rossby wave breaking (INVITED) by Zhuo Wang, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Developing an experimental week 2-4 severe weather outlook for the United States by Hui Wang, NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center; Alima Diawara, Arun Kumar, and David DeWitt Gulf of Mexico influence on sub-seasonal and seasonal severe thunderstorm frequency by Maria J. Molina, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Central Michigan University; John T. Allen, and Vittorio A. Gensini Short-term climate extremes: Probabilistic forecasts from a multi-model ensemble by Emily J. Becker, NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center and Innovim LLC; Huug van den Dool by Christina Finan, NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center and Innovim LLC; Hui Wang, and Jae Schemm 3. CLIMATE SERVICES Delivering impact-based seasonal outlooks for South Central Texas by Larry Hopper, Jr., Austin-San Antonio NWS WFO; Mark Lenz, Ty Dickinson, and J. W. Zeitler Improving impact-based seasonal outlooks for South Central Texas by Ty Dickinson, The University of Oklahoma; Larry Hopper, and Mark Lenz by John Zhu and Nelun Fernando, Texas Water Development Board, Austin, Texas by Jiayu Zhou, NOAA/NWS Office of Science and Technology Integration; David DeWitt 4. HIGH LATITUDE VARIABILITY Diagnosing extremes and trends of seasonal temperatures in Alaska (INVITED) by John E. Walsh, University of Alaska, Fairbanks; Brian Brettschneider Atmosphere-sea ice coupling processes in observations and CMIP5 (INVITED) by Qinghua Ding, Department of Geography, Earth Research Institute, University of California Santa Barbara; Michelle L?Heureux, Kirstin Harnos, Nathaniel Johnson, and Mitch Bushuk Searching for Arctic temperature trends and extremes from original station records by Taneil Uttal, Polar Observations and Processes, NOAA Earth Systems Research Laboratory New pathway of tropical influences on Arctic subseasonal warming events in the troposphere by Yen-Heng Lin, Department of Plants, Soils and Climate, Utah State University, Logan, UT; S.-Y. Simon Wang Influence of the stratosphere on MJO-AO teleconnections in the subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) models by Laura M. Ciasto, NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center and Innovim LLC; Michelle L'Heureux, Kirstin Harnos, and Jason C. Furtado Prediction of seasonal Arctic sea ice extent using the NMME by Kirstin Harnos, NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center and Innovim LLC; Michelle L'Heureux, Qin Zhang, and Qinghua Ding Multi-week prediction skill assessment of Arctic sea ice variability in the CFSv2 by Yanyun Liu, NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center and Innovim LLC; Wanqiu Wang, and Arun Kumar 5. DROUGHT AND PLUVIAL EVENTS Subseasonal prediction of warm season drought in North America (INVITED) by Hailan Wang, NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office; Yehui Chang, Siegfried D. Schubert, and Randal D. Koster Diagnosing extreme drought characteristics across the globe by Ehsan Najafi, NOAA Cooperative Remote Sensing Science and Technology Center (NOAA-CREST), City University of New York; Indrani Pal, and Reza Khanbilvardi Future projections of U.S. drought and pluvial events characteristics by Elinor R Martin, The University of Oklahoma Long-term variation of US land surface hydrological extremes by Yun Fan, NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center; Huug van den Dool Improving CPC?s handling of long-term temperature trends by Stephen Baxter, NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center Drought characteristics in two agro-climatic zones in Sub-Saharan Africa by Ayansina Ayanlade, Department of Geography, Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife, Nigeria; Maren Radeny, John F. Morton, and Tabitha Muchaba Probabilistic drought forecasts based on the Northern American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) by Li Xu, NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center and Innovim LLC; Kingtse C. Mo 6. SUBSEASONAL TO SEASONAL PREDICTABILITY An assessment of subseasonal forecast using extended Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) by Yuejian Zhu and Wei Li, NOAA/NWS Environmental Modeling Center; Eric Sinsky, Hong Guan, Xiaqiong Zhou, and Dingchen Hou Investigating the Potential for Seasonal Snowfall Forecasts at CPC by Stephen Baxter, NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center Center Improving the stable surface layer in the NCEP Global Forecast System by Weizhong Zheng, NOAA/NWS Environmental Modeling Center; Michael Ek, Kenneth Mitchell, Helin Wei, and Jesse Meng 7. CLIMATE DIAGNOSTICS, PREDICTION, AND ANALYSES Changing snowpack-streamflow relationships in the Rio Grande Headwaters by David S. Gutzler, University of New Mexico; Shaleene B. Chavarria by Ying Zhang, NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center and ESSIC, University of Maryland; Wanqiu Wang, and Arun Kumar by Daniel Harnos, NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center; Laura Ciasto, Nathaniel Johnson, Michelle L'Heureux, Cristiana Stan, and Adam Allgood Extratropical-tropical interactions over Ethiopia by Endalkachew Bekele, NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center, and UCAR/CPAESS; Wassila Thiaw Developing an NMME probability threshold based seasonal forecast tool by Mingyue Chen, NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center; Arun Kumar, and David DeWitt by Sarah Strazzo, IMSG and NOAA/NWS Climate Prediction Center; Dan Collins, Andrew Schepen, Q.J. Wang, Emily Becker, and Liwei Jia by Virendra Goswami, Environment and Peace Foundation, India
APPENDIX
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