
A Flood Watch has been issued until 8 AM Monday for most of northern and central Vermont, outside of Grand Isle County, for heavy rain. Rainfall between 1 to 2 inches, with locally up to 3 inches, will be possible through this evening and overnight as a cold front moves through. Flash Flooding will be possible if areas receive multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Read More >
Subject: NAM12 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens
Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM12_20260614_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.
925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date Time Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sun 06/14 12Z 0.49 2417 73 46 14 0.00
Sun 06/14 15Z 0.78 2217 83 46 14 0.00
Sun 06/14 18Z 1.02 2023 80 65 15 0.05
Sun 06/14 21Z 2.79 2321 86 91 14 0.35
Mon 06/15 00Z 0.57 2125 81 91 15 0.16
Mon 06/15 03Z 0.73 2420 94 96 13 0.39
Mon 06/15 06Z 0.42 2916 92 82 11 0.36
Mon 06/15 09Z 0.39 3014 96 89 9 0.02
Mon 06/15 12Z 0.41 2915 87 54 7 0.00
Mon 06/15 15Z 0.68 2913 89 13 6 0.00
Mon 06/15 18Z 4.29 2912 87 21 6 0.00
Mon 06/15 21Z 4.71 3013 85 22 6 0.00
Tue 06/16 00Z 1.14 3014 85 23 6 0.00
Tue 06/16 03Z 0.96 3019 89 12 5 0.00
Tue 06/16 06Z 0.86 3119 92 3 4 0.00
Tue 06/16 09Z 0.47 3217 87 6 3 0.00
Tue 06/16 12Z 0.29 3212 81 35 4 0.00
Tue 06/16 15Z 0.70 2908 77 58 5 0.00
Tue 06/16 18Z 3.06 2707 71 46 7 0.00
Tue 06/16 21Z 2.63 2507 68 40 8 0.00
Wed 06/17 00Z 0.72 2409 73 32 9 0.00
Wed 06/17 03Z 0.78 2411 72 28 8 0.00
Wed 06/17 06Z 0.73 2410 71 24 8 0.00
Wed 06/17 09Z 0.70 2410 72 28 8 0.00
Wed 06/17 12Z 0.23 2009 71 20 8 0.00
Wed 06/17 15Z 0.31 1712 73 16 9 0.00
Wed 06/17 18Z 0.54 1814 68 22 10 0.00
Wed 06/17 21Z 1.06 1715 64 39 11 0.00
Thu 06/18 00Z 0.24 1822 73 75 11 0.01
Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 1.34 inches.
Froude Number (Frd#):
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
Air flows freely over terrain.
Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.
Relative Humidity (RH):
925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.
850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
T > -11 10-15:1
T -11 to -15 25-35:1
T < -15 15-20:1