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Winter Weather Advisory in Effect from 7 PM Sunday to 4 PM Monday

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 7 PM Sunday to 4 PM Monday with freezing rain expected across the region. Ice accumulations generally between 0.2 to 0.4 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Travel could be very difficult, especially during the Monday morning commute. Isolated power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. Read More >

Subject: NAM12 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM12_20251228_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sun 12/28 12Z 0.11 3212  47  26   1 0.00
Sun 12/28 15Z 0.10 2906  38  16   2 0.00
Sun 12/28 18Z 0.17 2411  30  27   4 0.00
Sun 12/28 21Z 0.22 2218  29  23   5 0.00
Mon 12/29 00Z 0.25 2124  28  20   6 0.00
Mon 12/29 03Z 0.16 2024  72  87   3 0.01
Mon 12/29 06Z 0.11 1731  97  97   3 0.22
Mon 12/29 09Z 0.20 2030  98  95   6 0.34
Mon 12/29 12Z 0.28 2130  98  95   8 0.15
Mon 12/29 15Z 0.35 2228  98  96   6 0.19
Mon 12/29 18Z 0.39 2226  98  92   3 0.06
Mon 12/29 21Z 1.17 2624  97  66  -4 0.10
Tue 12/30 00Z 8.42 2527  86  76  -9 0.02
Tue 12/30 03Z 2.44 2426  86  75 -11 0.00
Tue 12/30 06Z 7.04 2427  90  84 -13 0.00
Tue 12/30 09Z 18.29 2627  81  91 -19 0.00
Tue 12/30 12Z 17.33 2726  79  83 -22 0.01
Tue 12/30 15Z 17.80 2726  78  83 -24 0.00
Tue 12/30 18Z 17.77 2726  76  82 -23 0.00
Tue 12/30 21Z 13.60 2829  77  81 -22 0.00
Wed 12/31 00Z 1.96 2833  83  81 -21 0.01
Wed 12/31 03Z 1.82 2834  82  80 -19 0.02
Wed 12/31 06Z 0.95 2833  52  36 -17 0.02
Wed 12/31 09Z 1.32 2833  72  65 -19 0.00
Wed 12/31 12Z 0.78 2626  87  82 -13 0.01
Wed 12/31 15Z 0.75 2423  90  82 -12 0.01
Wed 12/31 18Z 0.86 2226  90  91 -11 0.01
Wed 12/31 21Z 1.14 2331  92  44 -10 0.01
Thu 01/01 00Z 3.52 2724  88  83 -13 0.04

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 1.23 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1