National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Dangerous Cold From 7 PM This Evening to 11 AM Friday

An Extreme Cold Warning has been issued for the Adirondacks with wind chills as low as 30 to 40 below zero expected. The Cold Weather Advisory has been expanded to include the Champlain Valley as well as the rest of northern New York and Vermont. The risk of frostbite and hypothermia will be elevated, especially for vulnerable populations. Wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves. Read More >

Subject: NAM12 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM12_20260130_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Fri 01/30 06Z 0.72 2927  80  43 -24 0.00
Fri 01/30 09Z 0.56 3031  76  51 -23 0.00
Fri 01/30 12Z 0.43 3030  79  67 -22 0.00
Fri 01/30 15Z 0.32 3125  81  75 -20 0.00
Fri 01/30 18Z 0.31 3021  83  68 -18 0.00
Fri 01/30 21Z 0.35 3022  85  62 -17 0.00
Sat 01/31 00Z 0.30 3123  88  61 -17 0.00
Sat 01/31 03Z 0.22 3221  89  58 -15 0.00
Sat 01/31 06Z 0.20 3118  87  53 -14 0.00
Sat 01/31 09Z 0.22 3118  86  48 -15 0.00
Sat 01/31 12Z 0.21 3117  86  41 -16 0.00
Sat 01/31 15Z 0.17 3113  86  38 -16 0.00
Sat 01/31 18Z 0.16 3111  88  36 -16 0.00
Sat 01/31 21Z 0.16 3110  88  40 -16 0.00
Sun 02/01 00Z 0.09 3416  85  34 -14 0.00
Sun 02/01 03Z 0.03 0015  81  28 -12 0.00
Sun 02/01 06Z 0.09 0213  71  27 -11 0.00
Sun 02/01 09Z 0.11 0216  62  20 -10 0.00
Sun 02/01 12Z 0.14 0221  60  18  -9 0.00
Sun 02/01 15Z 0.19 0322  57  17  -9 0.00
Sun 02/01 18Z 0.16 0223  52  17  -8 0.00
Sun 02/01 21Z 0.08 0129  48  13  -8 0.00
Mon 02/02 00Z 0.11 0132  47  13  -9 0.00
Mon 02/02 03Z 0.12 0128  49  14  -8 0.00
Mon 02/02 06Z 0.06 3528  59  10  -8 0.00
Mon 02/02 09Z 0.09 3426  57  12  -9 0.00
Mon 02/02 12Z 0.15 3428  49  11  -8 0.00
Mon 02/02 15Z 0.15 3326  41  17  -8 0.00
Mon 02/02 18Z 0.18 3322  39  32  -8 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.00 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1