National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Autumn Temperatures for Eastern Third of the Country; Developing Offshore Coastal Storm

Cooler and less humid conditions for most of the eastern third of the nation as high pressure dominates the weather pattern. Otherwise, rather tranquil weather for most of the nation for the end of the weekend into the start of this week. We continue to monitor a developing coastal storm offshore of the Carolinas; Coastal flooding and beach erosion possible along portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Read More >

Subject: NAM12 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM12_20261018_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sun 10/18 12Z 0.58 2917  79  60  -2 0.00
Sun 10/18 15Z 0.54 2914  80  43  -1 0.00
Sun 10/18 18Z 0.40 2611  62  37   1 0.00
Sun 10/18 21Z 0.33 2413  49  20   3 0.00
Mon 10/19 00Z 0.35 2716  36  17   7 0.00
Mon 10/19 03Z 0.30 2714  20  23   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 06Z 0.27 2512  20  24   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 09Z 0.30 2514  20  24   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 12Z 0.34 2614  14  24   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 15Z 0.36 2715   9  27   9 0.00
Mon 10/19 18Z 0.32 2713  10  31  10 0.00
Mon 10/19 21Z 0.33 2914  14  30  10 0.00
Tue 10/20 00Z 0.26 3012  25  23  10 0.00
Tue 10/20 03Z 0.16 3211  34  17  10 0.00
Tue 10/20 06Z 0.08 3414  47  13   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 09Z 0.03 0015  44  14   9 0.00
Tue 10/20 12Z 0.09 0120  31  14   8 0.00
Tue 10/20 15Z 0.17 0221  28   8   7 0.00
Tue 10/20 18Z 0.13 0216  34   3   6 0.00
Tue 10/20 21Z 0.12 0217  40   4   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 00Z 0.20 0319  42   4   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 03Z 0.22 0515  46   5   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 06Z 0.19 0710  52   5   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 09Z 0.20 0514  47   5   6 0.00
Wed 10/21 12Z 0.19 0811  43   5   7 0.00
Wed 10/21 15Z 0.20 1012  42   6   8 0.00
Wed 10/21 18Z 0.17 1111  46   6   8 0.00
Wed 10/21 21Z 0.14 1310  48   6   9 0.00
Thu 10/22 00Z 0.10 1409  45   6   9 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.00 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1