
Additional river rises are expected with minor and localized ice jam flooding possible Today. Also, minor open water flooding is forecasted on the Ausable River and Otter Creek, with Action Stage possible on the Lamoille, Winooski, Mad, Barton, and Missisquoi Rivers Today. The threat for flooding ends by tonight. Read More >
Subject: NAM12 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens
Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM12_20260312_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.
925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date Time Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Thu 03/12 00Z 0.43 2043 83 89 11 0.00
Thu 03/12 03Z 0.83 2340 94 81 10 0.05
Thu 03/12 06Z 0.66 2136 97 84 11 0.05
Thu 03/12 09Z 1.74 2633 98 95 5 0.17
Thu 03/12 12Z 0.87 2731 84 70 -3 0.07
Thu 03/12 15Z 1.75 2828 85 14 -9 0.00
Thu 03/12 18Z 1.77 2925 87 30 -12 0.00
Thu 03/12 21Z 4.93 3023 85 44 -14 0.00
Fri 03/13 00Z 1.75 3025 86 39 -14 0.00
Fri 03/13 03Z 2.93 3028 91 52 -14 0.00
Fri 03/13 06Z 1.19 3024 91 47 -14 0.00
Fri 03/13 09Z 0.88 2923 88 59 -13 0.00
Fri 03/13 12Z 0.64 2818 85 11 -12 0.00
Fri 03/13 15Z 0.30 2309 69 5 -10 0.00
Fri 03/13 18Z 0.15 1817 54 77 -9 0.00
Fri 03/13 21Z 0.07 1730 91 87 -8 0.03
Sat 03/14 00Z 0.33 1937 92 82 -8 0.05
Sat 03/14 03Z 0.57 2038 94 75 -6 0.00
Sat 03/14 06Z 0.68 2135 94 80 -5 0.00
Sat 03/14 09Z 1.33 2333 97 44 -7 0.00
Sat 03/14 12Z 2.67 2435 92 23 -10 0.01
Sat 03/14 15Z 4.93 2533 87 47 -11 0.00
Sat 03/14 18Z 17.10 2734 83 75 -11 0.00
Sat 03/14 21Z 4.07 2534 87 48 -11 0.00
Sun 03/15 00Z 3.35 2934 86 37 -13 0.00
Sun 03/15 03Z 1.15 3031 70 7 -13 0.00
Sun 03/15 06Z 0.40 3123 40 12 -10 0.00
Sun 03/15 09Z 0.27 3117 29 6 -9 0.00
Sun 03/15 12Z 0.17 3009 20 14 -8 0.00
Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.43 inches.
Froude Number (Frd#):
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
Air flows freely over terrain.
Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.
Relative Humidity (RH):
925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.
850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
T > -11 10-15:1
T -11 to -15 25-35:1
T < -15 15-20:1