
A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 7 PM Sunday to 4 PM Monday with freezing rain expected across the region. Ice accumulations generally between 0.2 to 0.4 inches, with locally higher amounts possible. Travel could be very difficult, especially during the Monday morning commute. Isolated power outages and tree damage are possible due to the ice. Read More >
Subject: NAM12 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens
Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM12_20251228_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.
925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date Time Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sun 12/28 12Z 0.11 3212 47 26 1 0.00
Sun 12/28 15Z 0.10 2906 38 16 2 0.00
Sun 12/28 18Z 0.17 2411 30 27 4 0.00
Sun 12/28 21Z 0.22 2218 29 23 5 0.00
Mon 12/29 00Z 0.25 2124 28 20 6 0.00
Mon 12/29 03Z 0.16 2024 72 87 3 0.01
Mon 12/29 06Z 0.11 1731 97 97 3 0.22
Mon 12/29 09Z 0.20 2030 98 95 6 0.34
Mon 12/29 12Z 0.28 2130 98 95 8 0.15
Mon 12/29 15Z 0.35 2228 98 96 6 0.19
Mon 12/29 18Z 0.39 2226 98 92 3 0.06
Mon 12/29 21Z 1.17 2624 97 66 -4 0.10
Tue 12/30 00Z 8.42 2527 86 76 -9 0.02
Tue 12/30 03Z 2.44 2426 86 75 -11 0.00
Tue 12/30 06Z 7.04 2427 90 84 -13 0.00
Tue 12/30 09Z 18.29 2627 81 91 -19 0.00
Tue 12/30 12Z 17.33 2726 79 83 -22 0.01
Tue 12/30 15Z 17.80 2726 78 83 -24 0.00
Tue 12/30 18Z 17.77 2726 76 82 -23 0.00
Tue 12/30 21Z 13.60 2829 77 81 -22 0.00
Wed 12/31 00Z 1.96 2833 83 81 -21 0.01
Wed 12/31 03Z 1.82 2834 82 80 -19 0.02
Wed 12/31 06Z 0.95 2833 52 36 -17 0.02
Wed 12/31 09Z 1.32 2833 72 65 -19 0.00
Wed 12/31 12Z 0.78 2626 87 82 -13 0.01
Wed 12/31 15Z 0.75 2423 90 82 -12 0.01
Wed 12/31 18Z 0.86 2226 90 91 -11 0.01
Wed 12/31 21Z 1.14 2331 92 44 -10 0.01
Thu 01/01 00Z 3.52 2724 88 83 -13 0.04
Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 1.23 inches.
Froude Number (Frd#):
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
Air flows freely over terrain.
Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.
Relative Humidity (RH):
925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.
850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
T > -11 10-15:1
T -11 to -15 25-35:1
T < -15 15-20:1