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Heavy Snow in the Sierra Nevada; Heavy Rainfall in Texas Sunday

Heavy snow is expected in the Sierra Nevada mountain ranges into Saturday causing hazardous travel conditions. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued. Thunderstorms and moderate to heavy rainfall are expected across portions of eastern Texas into Louisiana on Sunday. Read More >

Subject: NAM12 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM12_20261103_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Tue 11/03 06Z 0.47 2813  59  88   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 09Z 0.37 2710  57  86   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 12Z 0.39 2411  63  91   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 15Z 0.44 2314  63  95   9 0.00
Tue 11/03 18Z 0.54 2217  72  94   8 0.00
Tue 11/03 21Z 0.61 2324  89  88   9 0.01
Wed 11/04 00Z 0.61 2524  93  77  10 0.02
Wed 11/04 03Z 0.77 2726  85  67  11 0.00
Wed 11/04 06Z 0.93 2626  74  53  11 0.00
Wed 11/04 09Z 0.93 2627  70  66  11 0.00
Wed 11/04 12Z 1.00 2628  69  71  11 0.00
Wed 11/04 15Z 0.76 2625  66  78  12 0.00
Wed 11/04 18Z 0.53 2519  62  59  13 0.00
Wed 11/04 21Z 0.47 2417  65  49  13 0.00
Thu 11/05 00Z 0.55 2520  68  49  12 0.00
Thu 11/05 03Z 0.43 2419  52  52  13 0.00
Thu 11/05 06Z 0.38 2322  45  51  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 09Z 0.47 2329  50  48  14 0.00
Thu 11/05 12Z 0.48 2231  64  40  13 0.00
Thu 11/05 15Z 0.65 2234  97  94  11 0.00
Thu 11/05 18Z 0.65 2329  93  65  11 0.05
Thu 11/05 21Z 0.70 2327  82  12  10 0.00
Fri 11/06 00Z 0.82 2330  91  12   9 0.00
Fri 11/06 03Z 0.71 2329  89  30  10 0.02
Fri 11/06 06Z 0.78 2621  88  14   6 0.01
Fri 11/06 09Z 0.58 2617  87  26   5 0.00
Fri 11/06 12Z 0.45 2514  85  30   4 0.00
Fri 11/06 15Z 0.28 2310  80  36   5 0.00
Fri 11/06 18Z 0.24 2208  82  36   5 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.11 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1