National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Flood Watch Continues for Northern New York and Most of Vermont until 2 PM Today

Additional river rises are expected with minor and localized ice jam flooding possible Today. Also, minor open water flooding is forecasted on the Ausable River and Otter Creek, with Action Stage possible on the Lamoille, Winooski, Mad, Barton, and Missisquoi Rivers Today. The threat for flooding ends by tonight. Read More >

Subject: NAM12 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM12_20260312_0000
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Thu 03/12 00Z 0.43 2043  83  89  11 0.00
Thu 03/12 03Z 0.83 2340  94  81  10 0.05
Thu 03/12 06Z 0.66 2136  97  84  11 0.05
Thu 03/12 09Z 1.74 2633  98  95   5 0.17
Thu 03/12 12Z 0.87 2731  84  70  -3 0.07
Thu 03/12 15Z 1.75 2828  85  14  -9 0.00
Thu 03/12 18Z 1.77 2925  87  30 -12 0.00
Thu 03/12 21Z 4.93 3023  85  44 -14 0.00
Fri 03/13 00Z 1.75 3025  86  39 -14 0.00
Fri 03/13 03Z 2.93 3028  91  52 -14 0.00
Fri 03/13 06Z 1.19 3024  91  47 -14 0.00
Fri 03/13 09Z 0.88 2923  88  59 -13 0.00
Fri 03/13 12Z 0.64 2818  85  11 -12 0.00
Fri 03/13 15Z 0.30 2309  69   5 -10 0.00
Fri 03/13 18Z 0.15 1817  54  77  -9 0.00
Fri 03/13 21Z 0.07 1730  91  87  -8 0.03
Sat 03/14 00Z 0.33 1937  92  82  -8 0.05
Sat 03/14 03Z 0.57 2038  94  75  -6 0.00
Sat 03/14 06Z 0.68 2135  94  80  -5 0.00
Sat 03/14 09Z 1.33 2333  97  44  -7 0.00
Sat 03/14 12Z 2.67 2435  92  23 -10 0.01
Sat 03/14 15Z 4.93 2533  87  47 -11 0.00
Sat 03/14 18Z 17.10 2734  83  75 -11 0.00
Sat 03/14 21Z 4.07 2534  87  48 -11 0.00
Sun 03/15 00Z 3.35 2934  86  37 -13 0.00
Sun 03/15 03Z 1.15 3031  70   7 -13 0.00
Sun 03/15 06Z 0.40 3123  40  12 -10 0.00
Sun 03/15 09Z 0.27 3117  29   6  -9 0.00
Sun 03/15 12Z 0.17 3009  20  14  -8 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.43 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1