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Dangerous Heat in the East; Critical Fire Weather in the Southwest

Dangerous, record-breaking heat will intensify across most of the central and eastern U.S this week. Heat indices will likely exceed 100 degrees. Heat is likely to continue across the eastern U.S. through the Independence Day holiday weekend. Critical fire weather conditions will continue today and likely Tuesday across portions of the Four Corners and northern High Plains. Read More >

Subject: NAM12 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM12_20260629_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Mon 06/29 12Z 0.06 3512  76  43  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 15Z 0.14 3509  76  46  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 18Z 0.63 3407  67  36  13 0.00
Mon 06/29 21Z 0.88 3207  58  23  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 00Z 0.17 3307  49  25  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 03Z 0.28 3004  49  20  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 06Z 0.51 2707  57  32  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 09Z 0.67 2709  61  34  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 12Z 0.42 2508  68  61  14 0.00
Tue 06/30 15Z 0.44 2310  68  61  15 0.00
Tue 06/30 18Z 0.47 2114  68  77  15 0.00
Tue 06/30 21Z 0.67 2118  85  93  16 0.03
Wed 07/01 00Z 1.03 2326  88  67  17 0.05
Wed 07/01 03Z 1.33 2536  87  42  18 0.00
Wed 07/01 06Z 1.18 2839  91  54  19 0.02
Wed 07/01 09Z 0.89 2931  97  18  19 0.01
Wed 07/01 12Z 0.63 2922  94  28  18 0.01
Wed 07/01 15Z 0.54 3018  91  15  19 0.00
Wed 07/01 18Z 0.37 2810  78  47  21 0.00
Wed 07/01 21Z 0.56 2711  78  73  21 0.00
Thu 07/02 00Z 0.55 2713  91  53  20 0.14
Thu 07/02 03Z 0.87 2817  84  31  20 0.02
Thu 07/02 06Z 0.69 2818  87  40  20 0.00
Thu 07/02 09Z 0.68 2816  87  41  20 0.00
Thu 07/02 12Z 0.65 2817  92  50  20 0.01
Thu 07/02 15Z 0.68 2816  84  28  20 0.03
Thu 07/02 18Z 2.92 2517  78  39  20 0.00
Thu 07/02 21Z 4.98 2618  56  54  21 0.00
Fri 07/03 00Z 1.81 2530  59  31  21 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.32 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1