LAST UPDATED: 745 PM SUNDAY, MARCH 15 2026
.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions to start off the period, the ceiling
restrictions once again become possible tonight through much of
Monday.
Very dynamic cold front will be approaching the forecast area
through the overnight hours, then will push through during the
morning and afternoon hours on Monday. Period starts off with
vfr conditions, but with increasing moisture through the night,
guidance is bringing ceilings back down into mvfr between
03z-06z at all sites. Have mostly followed that trend for
ceilings, with mvfr or lower then expected for the remainder of
the period as the front moves in. On top of ceiling
restrictions, additional aviation threats through the period
will be centered on winds. First will be the main synoptic scale
surface winds, as they increase ahead of the approaching front
overnight and early Monday morning. Sustained winds will
increase to above 10 knots by midnight, then continue to
increase through the night. By Monday morning winds will begin
to top 20 knots just ahead of the front out of the south to
southwest, then rapidly turn west/northwesterly behind the
front, with sustained winds between 20-25 knots expected. In
addition, wind gusts will be quite strong as a rather intense
low-level jet moves through the region and those winds mix down
to the surface. Wind gusts outside of any storms will top 30
knots on Monday. Even strong winds will be possible along the
squall line as it moves through each taf location, with initial
estimates gusts over 40 knots along the line. In addition, the
squall line should bring ifr or lower visibilities as it moves
through. Exact timing of this front will be adjusted the closer
it gets on Monday, but for now have included a 4 hour tempo
group at each taf location, with timing centered around the
period of highest confidence at this time. All in all, a rather
hazardous flying day on tap for the aviation community Monday.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Strong winds possible into Monday
night. A return to VFR conditions and lighter winds is
anticipated for Tuesday onward.
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