LAST UPDATED: 829 PM TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 29 2022
.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR for the time being, but expectation is that restrictions will
quickly develop later tonight and into Wednesday as a strong front
approaches the region.
Southeasterly flow has developed across the forecast area today and
is leading to a slow but gradual increase in moisture across the
area. With dry air and high pressure still in place across the
region, I do expect VFR to last for the next few hours. Clouds
should quickly increase through 03z-05z and remain VFR as this
occurs, with a possible exception at OGB. Low-level flow is
southeasterly, and that usually favors stratus especially when skies
are clear. This looks most likely to be maintained at OGB for
several more hours with stratocumulus and cirrus being a bit further
west. HRRR and LAMP guidance has recently suggested that a brief
period of LIFR cigs are possible at OGB between 05z and 07z, but I
am hesitant to include that in the TAF at this time. From there, the
forecast is fairly simple, with moisture and rain increasing in
coverage from west to east quickly after 08z. Rain should generally
bring cigs/vis to MVFR (this is common in obs to our west) and I
expect that to be the case given we're already in the warm sector of
this system. However, there should be embedded convection within
this rain, so expect IFR cig/vis to occur at times, and I cover that
in a TEMPO group at all sites. I don't think there will be
widespread thunder & don't include it in the TAF, but don't be
surprised if there is some lightning with this. The heaviest
rain generally looks to occur from 09z to 17z across the
region, quickly pushing out of the area thereafter as dry air
pushes in. Look for LLWS to occur during this time as well. I do
think that some MVFR cigs will likely hang on for a couple
hours after the rain stops, but generally should be out of here
after 21z. Winds will start near the east or southeast this
evening, quickly shifting out of the south and southwest ahead
of the front.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...No restrictions expected late in the
week as dry air returns.
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