|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
607 FXUS63 KDVN 071909 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 209 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - This morning`s round of heavy rain producing storms has seen prolific heavy rain rates, mesoscale storm interactions, and nearly continuous redevelopment, resulting in a Flash Flood Threat Developing! - Rounds of nocturnal and diurnal convection through Monday night will bring a risk of locally heavy rainfall due to weak winds aloft. If the heavy rain is persistent more than 1 hour, flash flooding is possible. - Heat and humidity will return around mid-week with temperatures in the 90s and heat indices pushing 100 or higher. The probability of heat headlines around mid-week is 33-40 percent. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 208 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 Our area has been the focal point of weak synoptic lift from the approaching upper low, exceptionally high PWAT air mass around 2 inches, and a mesoscale boundary from Lake Michigan which is all creating a nearly continuous convective activity over the I-80 and and north this morning. Day time temperatures and east winds under these storms have held the boundary in place, while predominantly dry conditions south have allowed for heating. This will set the stage for additional torrential rain producing storms over the area, especially the northeast 1/2. Given this scenario, I`ve opted to issue a Flood Watch for this scenario where repeated torrential rain is expected on and off through Monday. Models are not handling this well, but with the upper low lifting up over the area, this focusing mechanism is unlikely to stop until the upper low`s passage. We have had seen flash flooding already take place in Bureau County in our east, and additional flooding appears likely, despite starting the day with dry soil conditions in many areas. Several reports through Noon are 2 to 5 inches of rain this morning. Rainfall tonight in general may average 0.5 to 1.0 inches, but in areas that see the repeated storms, tonight may see more areas of 2 to 5 inches. That certainly won`t be everywhere, but in the northeast 1/2 were especially prone to this, with advection over the boundary. Late this morning, along the boundary in the east, NSP values grew to around 2-3, and a small tornado was reported by an IL police deputy, relayed by emergency management. The latest mesoanalysis from SPC is showing that area lifting northeast of Bureau Co, and with ongoing rains we may be done with that threat. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 207 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 Tuesday through Sunday Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of temperatures well above normal. Low (20-25%) confidence for rain. Trends with the models continue to show temperatures well above normal for much of the week. However, the highest heat indices now look to occur in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. A seasonably strong front arriving Wednesday night will bring cooler temperatures on Thursday with temperatures moving to near normal for next weekend. Heat indices Tuesday continue to indicate 95 to 100 but areas south of I-80 have a 30-40% probability of exceeding 100. On Wednesday the probability of seeing heat indices of 100+ is now at 50-60%. Depending upon how rain chances play out, heat headlines may be needed in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. The model consensus indicates the daylight hours of Tuesday are dry. Tuesday night into Wednesday is a question. A weak signal has started to develop suggesting a nocturnal storm complex running around the edge of the heat dome. If this occurs it would play significantly into the need for potential heat headlines Wednesday. Albeit a weak signal, some of the ensemble members of the various models are pointing to rain and have a 20-30 percent chance for rain Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wednesday night into Thursday looks interesting. A much stronger front is progged to move through the area that will be associated with a strong upper level disturbance. Winds in the mid-levels of the atmosphere are progged to be around 50 knots indicating organized storms with the potential for severe storms. CSU ML progs and other ML analog sites from the June 6th model runs have a 15-30% probability of severe storms occurring. Thus the transition from hot and humid conditions may have severe storms. Thus Wednesday night has the best chances for rain. The current model consensus has 50-70 percent chances for rain. Outside of Wednesday night, the model consensus has daily 20-35 percent chances for rain Thursday through Sunday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/... Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026 An upper low with copious moisture is combining with east winds over northern Illinois to bring widespread shower and thunderstorms to eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. This nearly continuous process will lead to scattered storms with low visibility, heavy rain, and lower MVFR cigs / brief IFR cigs to all sites this afternoon and evening, and potentially into Monday afternoon at times. Expect heavy downpours with all storms, and possibly localized gusty winds, but otherwise, light wind flow from the southeast to east southeast. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...Flood Watch through Monday evening for IAZ040>042-051>054- 064>068. IL...Flood Watch through Monday evening for ILZ001-007-009-015>018- 024. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...Ervin |
|
Follow us on X
Follow us on Facebook
Follow us on YouTube
DVN RSS Feed