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497 FXUS63 KDVN 080839 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 339 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today, Wednesday looking to be a lull day, and more storms possible later Thursday especially in the west. Shortwave driving more storms Friday and Friday night, then not as active for the weekend. The severe weather potential remains low at this time, but will have to watch for stronger storm potential Thursday night in the west and especially on Friday CWA-wide. - Seasonal temperatures and humidity levels will continue this week and into the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Today...The current MCS propagating south-southeastward down the MO RVR Valley will probably scrape/move acrs portions of the southwestern DVN CWA in an weakening mode, but still may produce wind gusts to 35 MPH and lighting as it encounters a lobe of higher D- CAPE acrs southeast IA into MO through 6-7 AM or so. A couple of MCV`s evident in both RADAR and satellite imagery, with the one spiraling currently just southeast of the DSM area having the potential to kick up more isolated to sctrd convection into the western and northern DVN CWA this morning. Otherwise may have to wait to midday and afternoon with the main upper wave approaching combining with some diurnal instability build up for more sctrd storms to fire on remnant LLVL boundaries/thermal discontinuity. This afternoon activity will look to be more favorable along and east of the MS RVR. Some uncertainty on extent of lingering convective debris and ambient clouds tempering heat up potential and thus extent of usable CAPE for stronger storms or more coverage. But shear profiles are weak as low to mid level lapse rates, so it may be just pulse type billow ups and then drops with local outflow winds of 35-45 MPH. Locally heavy rainfall also if PWAT`s of 2 inches or higher maintain. High temps a challenge today as well with weak sfc flow, questions on extent of convective debris hanging on and ongoing humid conditions. Will let the 50% NBM values ride for now, but see a scenario that they may be a bit warm in spots. Tonight...An isolated shower or storm possible, but most spots to go dry into Wed morning. Lows in the 60s, with patchy fog possible especially shallow in nature over fields and in river valleys. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 315 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Wednesday and Thursday...Wed a lull day with influence of both sfc and upper ridging, but can`t rule out an isolated storm of shower in the ongoing buoyancy regime of mid summer. Seasonable temps Wed. Looking at the medium range ensembles, Thursday is more uncertain. Broadening upper ridge will look to spill another shortwave toward the area, and the models are varying from a nocturnal elevated warm air advection(WAA)wing of sctrd storms making it into the area from the west Thu night, to a full blown MCS propagating into the fcst area by Thu afternoon and evening. Extent of passing ridge and preferred mass field placement prefer the sctrd nocturnal convection scenario with better storm prospects as you head west. Friday...The same ensembles showing a more organized digging shortwave for Friday and Friday night, and this may be the day with more dynamic/kinematic support for strong to severe storms and even mCS development in or near the local area. Likely POPs warranted for this period. Saturday through Monday...Depending on the progressive nature of the Friday wave, Saturday may be another lull day with summer typical temps, sun and humidity. That may linger into Sunday before ensemble timing brings another short wave aloft, embedded on southern fringe of more progressive zonal steering flow acrs the northern quarter of the CONUS, for shower/storm chances by Monday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1245 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Generally a VFR period into Tue morning with some ACCAS and stratocu around as the main MCS plunges southward to the west of the area. But there is a chance for isolated to wdly sctrd showers or a thunderstorm to pop up overnight into early morning on the eastern flank of the MCS. A better chance for sctrd storms popping up may be from midday into the afternoon on remnant boundary and outflow from the overnight system in the heating of the day, especially along and east of the MS RVR. Have included some PROB30 windows for this potential. Otherwise, just VFR debris clouds and light variable sfc wind regime. There might be a south to southwesterly direction to the winds for much of the day before expected veering off to the northwest Tue evening. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...12 LONG TERM...12 AVIATION...12 |
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