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129 FXUS63 KDVN 061839 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 139 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Precipitation chances are best this evening and through tonight, with largely <0.50" expected. Otherwise, this week will remain largely dry. - Seasonal temperatures work into the area behind the cold front coming through today, lasting through the remainder of the work week. The weekend and beyond, we may see another warmup through the region. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 After a lull in rainfall in the northwest this afternoon, we will start to see convection blossom over the area this evening. The cold front that is slowly passing through will still be over a portion of our area, with a weaker LLJ pumping into it. Thus, plenty of forcing to favor a period of repeating showers and embedded thunderstorms. Severe weather is not expected with this, owing to fairly weak instability. Rather, we will just have enough instability to introduce lightning. This area of showers and storms is expected to fill in after sunset, currently looking to develop in areas along the Mississippi River. The area of showers/storms will slowly drift east through the night, clearing much of the area by sunrise Tuesday. Overall, light rain accumulation is expected out of this, with most seeing around 0.25-0.50". Best chances for the higher end of that range will largely be along a line from Freeport IL to Fairfield IA. Otherwise, we will be dealing with mostly cloudy skies, with temperatures ranging from upper 40s in our northwest to mid 50s in our southeast. Tomorrow, we are in for quite the change. We will continue to see remnant showers in our south/east early in the morning, but much of that activity should be moved out by 10am-12pm local time. Post- Frontal airmass then pushes in, with surface high pressure moving into the area. This will allow for much cooler temperatures than we have been seeing, with most remaining in the mid-upper 60s. A light northerly wind will also be seen, with decreasing cloud cover. We are looking towards quite a beautiful and cooler fall evening tomorrow! && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Issued at 135 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 The remainder of the week will remain dominated by surface high pressure, along with ridging over the central CONUS. This will largely keep upper level flow northwesterly. Guidance indicates some weak waves passing along the top of the building ridge. Although, moisture will be severely lacking. Thus, we are expecting to remain largely dry as this passes, but a stray shower or two cannot be ruled out. This will generally pass through Thursday into Friday. For now, we will continue to message a dry forecast with passing clouds. During this timeframe, temperatures will remain near seasonal norms, with widespread 60s/70s. The weekend and beyond, the story remains the same since last forecast package. We will continue to see the ridge amplify over the central CONUS and shift east. This should allow more warm advection into the region, increasing temperatures once again. The CPC favors above normal temperatures during this timeframe. Thus, it looks like the 80s might return again. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 1234 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025 A cold front coming through the region will bring along the chance for showers and isolated storms. Best coverage will be seen after 03z, but isolated to scattered showers cannot be ruled out from 18z Monday and beyond. Lower cigs and vis can be seen in the showers/storms, with cigs down to 1000-2000 ft or less and vis between 3-5 SM. The shower activity will continue through tonight, decreasing in coverage from west to east after 06z. Winds will largely be northwesterly to northerly around 10 KTs. Thus, while we will see long periods of VFR conditions, we will see occasional reductions to MVFR/IFR through the forecast period, especially between 00-12z. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Gunkel LONG TERM...Gunkel AVIATION...Gunkel |
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