|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
092 FXUS63 KDVN 041743 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 1243 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat and humidity will increase today through the at least the upcoming weekend. This will result in a notable increase in humidity across the area. - The weather will become more active tonight into early next week with several chances for showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rain will be possible. There is a risk of severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 As of 2 AM CDT, there is a decaying MCS across southern Minnesota that is spreading into northern Iowa west of I-35. CAMS have this activity quickly decaying but does show some isolated showers moving it into the Highway 20 corridor from 7 to 9 AM associated with some 850 MB warm advection. Added 20% chances along Highway 20 in Iowa to account for this potential. Through the day today, 500 MB flow is forecast to transition to more zonal flow aloft as high pressure shifts southeastward into the southeastern US. As this occurs, a subtle shortwave will move across the area from 00 UTC to 12 UTC on Friday. Ahead of this, moisture will slowly build across the area. High temperatures today will be warmer with highs in the mid 80s along the Highway 20 corridor and upper 80s to the south. After 00 UTC, CAMS show the potential for several rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the area especially north of Interstate 80. CAPE and shear will be limited across the area with only a few hundred J/KG and 0 to 6 km shear of 20 to 25 knots. An isolated strong storm is possible during the evening hours northwest of Cedar Rapids and think that damaging winds are the main threat. Precipitable water values really surge across the area after 06 UTC with values rising to 1.50 to 1.75 inches. If rain is seen, most places will see a quarter to a half an inch but if a location receives several rounds of rain, up to an inch of rain is possible. The higher rainfall totals should be north of Interstate 80 tonight. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 127 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 The shortwave trough from Thursday night will be exiting the area on Friday morning with the potential for lingering showers and storms into Friday morning. This would mainly be to the east of the Mississippi River. Models show skies clearing from west to east across the area late morning into the afternoon with temperatures rebounding into the lower to mid 80s with dewpoints into the mid to upper 60s. This is resulting in HREF CAPE values of 2000 to 3000 J/KG across the area. The limiting factor for severe potential is 0 to 6 KM shear, which is forecast to be 20 to 30 knots. The better alignment of CAPE and shear on Friday afternoon into Friday night is a west of a Iowa City to Dubuque line where severe storms are possible. Isolated severe storms will be possible to the south and east of this line. The main threats will be damaging winds and large hail. The shortwave moving into the area will lead to several rounds of showers and storms moving across the area Friday evening into Saturday morning before that shortwave exits the area. This is the best chance for showers and storms in the next 7 days. Heavy rain will also be possible with precipitable water values around 1.50 inches. High pressure is forecast to build into the area at the surface and aloft Saturday night into Sunday before another shortwave lifts across the area Sunday night into Monday. This will bring the potential for another round of showers and storms to the area Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. There could also be the potential for heavy rain with any of these storm systems as model show PWATs near 2.00 inches Sunday night. Beyond Monday night, an Omega Block tries to redevelop across the CONUS as 500 MB ridging builds back into the Central Plains and a closed low sits off of the East Coast and another in the Northern Rockies. Models differ on the placement of the ridge across the Great Lakes. This leads to differences in locations of shortwave activity traveling up the western side of the ridge. If the center of ridge is to our east, there may be several chances for showers and storms as disturbances lift northeastward into the Upper Great Lakes and if the ridge is centered closer to the area, it will be hot, humid, and dry. Ensemble guidance appears to favor broad ridging centered into the Upper Midwest shunting the better precipitation chances to our northwest. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1230 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026 A round of showers and thunderstorms will move in from the west later tonight into Friday morning, first impacting CID and DBQ mainly after 05Z/Friday. The activity will spread east toward the Mississippi River into early Friday AM. Still have low confidence on exact timing for the heaviest downpours and potential for some thunder, so only mentioned TS in PROB30s at CID/DBQ for now. Brief bouts of MVFR/IFR are possible in any moderate/heavy showers and ceilings generally should lower into Friday AM with widespread MVFR anticipated, with brief IFR possible (30-50% chance from the latest NBM). && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Cousins LONG TERM...Cousins/Gunkel/Uttech AVIATION...Uttech |
|
Follow us on X
Follow us on Facebook
Follow us on YouTube
DVN RSS Feed