Dry and windy conditions will bring widespread fire weather concerns to the northern/central Plains and portions of the Southwest into the southern Plains. Severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging wind gusts are possible over the central Plains today into this weekend. Rain and high elevation snow is expected over parts of the Cascades and Northern Intermountain Region through Saturday. Read More >
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830 FXUS63 KDVN 141107 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 607 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures warm into the 70s today, then 80s Friday through at least Monday. Humidity levels will also be on the increase through the weekend and into early next week. - Thunderstorms return to the forecast Thursday night through Tuesday. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the area in a marginal, or level 1 of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms Thursday night and Friday night. Then for this weekend and Monday in a Slight, or level 2 out of 5 risk, for severe thunderstorms. - At this time, the most widespread and significant severe thunderstorm risk is forecast to be on Monday, followed by Sunday and Sunday night. Stay tuned in the coming days as more details emerge on this severe weather potential. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 High pressure is over northern Illinois early today, with light and variable winds over our area, along with clear skies, and temperatures in the 40s. This chilly start will give way to a warmer day today, as the high pressure moves off to the east. It continues to look like a notable increase in southerly winds will spread in from west to east during the day. For most, this will still be a very pleasant day, with highs in the lower 70s east to upper 70s west. Dry weather looks to hold firmly in place due to exceptionally dry air near the high pressure until after 6 PM. A broad weak short wave will sweep through the Midwest this evening and overnight. This will also be occurring with strong WAA and increasing moisture transport into Iowa and Missouri during the mid to late evening hours. After yesterday`s remarkably dry atmosphere, we`re potentially seeing PWAT values over 1.50 move into southern areas tonight. The NBM brings in lows pops under 40% through the north half of the area this evening, with the main short wave, however, this activity would be incredibly light if it reaches the ground. The main impacts will hold off until overnight in the south, while the north probably remains dry. Initially, a strong area of storms to our west/southwest should form in northern MO and KS, but overnight, this activity will spread east, potentially into southern sections of the CWA overnight. Pops are 60 to 80% over the southern 1/2 of the area, (highest south), which is supported by a thunderstorm track of the main storms over northern Missouri towards central Illinois. Rainfall could be over 0.5 in that event alone given the moisture, but the potential also exists that much of that event falls south of the southern counties too. The main threat overnight from severe weather appears to be marginally severe hail mainly less than 1 inch, and some gusty winds potentially. The late evolution of storms into our CWA lowers our confidence on any activity being isolated and strong, vs a mature area that could be sinking south of the CWA with time as it moves east after midnight. The timing of these first two waves of WAA driven showers and storms will leave Friday a mainly dry and pleasant warm day. The break in storms, and break in cloud cover leads us to our first warm day in this stretch, with highs in the upper 70s east to mid 80s west. Friday night, a similar convective evolution is expected to late tonight, this time though, a more northerly track is possible, as shown in at least 50% of guidance. With a warmer atmosphere in place, inherently more unstable in the boundary layer than tonight, this offers a low, but more mixed potential for severe weather of both large hail and damaging winds, though once again, we may be towards the later half of the storm evolution Friday night, with threats decreasing with time. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 232 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 The global ensembles favor zonal flow aloft becoming southwest flow this weekend into early next week as an upper level trough deepens across the Intermountain West. With Gulf moisture return, this will set the stage for multiple rounds of thunderstorms. Surface dewpoints are forecast to increase into the mid 50s F by Saturday and at least into the 60s by Sunday and potentially the lower 70s by Monday. When combined with increasing temperatures into the 80s, buoyancy will also be on the increase across the region, especially Sunday into Monday. SPC has portions of the regional outlooked in Marginal to Slight Risks from Friday through Monday. Within this period, Monday has the more significant threat for all severe weather hazards (large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes), followed by Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. From a setup standpoint, the wavering front remains over the area through Saturday, and then begin to lift north on Sunday as a warm front with a large warm and buoyant sector establishing itself across much of the central US on Monday. Buoyancy will build to the south of this stalled turned stationary turned warm front. The best chance for thunderstorms Friday into Saturday looks to be south of I-80, south of the stalled front. There is some question as to the strength of forcing and shear for thunderstorm coverage and organization, and the SPC Marginal Risk for the southern portions of the area describes the threat well for Friday night, with a small area of a Day 4 Slight risk across the south on Saturday into Saturday night. Buoyancy continues to build into Sunday. As stronger impulses embedded in southwest flow aloft arrive and the low level jet strengthens Sunday evening and night, the coverage and organization of storms will be greater than compared to Saturday. Monday poses the more significant severe thunderstorm threat from a coverage and organization standpoint with a higher ceiling for all hazard magnitudes for large hail, damaging wind and tornadoes. As low pressure propagates into the Upper Midwest on Monday, with strong mid and low level jets, forcing and shear will be maximized coincident with moderate to strong buoyancy. Specific details and timing will be worked out over the coming days, however, machine learning severe probabilities all point to Monday being the most significant day for severe thunderstorms. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 601 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026 High pressure will shift east of the region through this morning, allowing south-southeast winds to gradually increase through the day. Sporadic to occasional gusts near 20 kt are favored at eastern Iowa airports during Thursday afternoon and possibly into the evening. An inherent dry air mass provides uncertainties on late evening shower coverage and start time, and thunder inclusion. For now, will only mention this at Burlington towards morning as a prob 30. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin/NWS AVIATION...Ervin |
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