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165 FXUS63 KDVN 232315 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 615 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Predominantly dry conditions continue through the Memorial Day weekend, though there will be occasional slight (10-30%) chances for rain. The first opportunity for rain will be tonight, mainly west of a Waterloo to Macomb line. - The highest (30-50%) chance for appreciable rain during the forecast period will be on Tuesday. - Cooler than normal weather will continue through midweek, with a warming trend thereafter. There is a 30% chance high temperatures reach 80 degrees by Friday. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 At 2pm, temperatures in the mid 60s to around 70 and a gentle northerly breeze have made for a pleasant spring afternoon across eastern Iowa and western Illinois. Sunshine will become increasingly filtered by clouds overspreading the region from the west as a transient disturbance approaches. While deep mixing has made for dry low levels, featuring dewpoints in the upper 30s to mid 40s this afternoon, thinking is that top- down saturation of the column may occur with precip developing in the right entrance region of a ~100 kt 250mb jet streak lifting into the region tonight. Consequently, boosted PoPs to 15-30% (for at least a mention in the forecast) across mainly our west/southwest half tonight in accordance with the corridor of highest PoPs given by the HREF. In any case, any rain would fall pre-dawn and QPF amounts would be under a tenth of an inch. With weak northeast low level flow and prolific stratocumulus, tomorrow will be just a smidgen cooler than today with highs mostly in the mid 60s, but it should also be dry. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 By Sunday morning, the GFS and NAM suggest our northeast Missouri counties may be clipped by another round of shower activity associated with a shortwave sliding east-southeast out of the Plains, but most global ensemble guidance, like the deterministic ECMWF, keeps the area dry; the Low Resolution Ensemble Forecast (LREF) system gives only a ~20% chance for measurable precip south of a roughly Ottumwa to Burlington line. Weak ridging poking into the area late Sunday into Monday will be shunted east as a shortwave lifting out of the Central Plains phases with a deepening upper trough in the Dakotas. Isentropic upglide may result in some light rain activity on Monday, with the highest chances (30-40%) late in the day and south of roughly the I-80 corridor. Though there is some model dispersion in precise timing, deterministic guidance seems to be converging on Monday night into Tuesday with the better forcing for ascent and thus higher precip chances. Given the abundant cloud cover and possible (30-50% chance) showers, temperatures will remain below normal through Tuesday with forecast highs in the 60s. The pattern Wednesday and beyond becomes increasingly nebulous as a myriad of individual deterministic and ensemble solutions become apparent. Cluster analysis fortunately distills this into two broad outcomes: outcome 1 suggests the upper level trough becomes cut off somewhere over the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Regions and lingers into next weekend, while the 2nd is more progressive - having that trough shift eastward and ridging expand back into the Midwest by the end of the work week. Solution 1 (50-60% chance) would bedevil the region with persistent cloud cover and at least sporadic rain chances, while solution 2 (40-50% chance) suggests low rain chances, sunshine, and a gradual warming trend culminating in a return to the 80s to kick off the upcoming weekend. Ultimately, the holistic ensemble envelope reveals a spectrum in how long it takes that upper trough to depart and warmer weather to return, with increasing temperatures and decreasing chances for precipitation apparent in NBM each day late next week. By Friday, it suggests a 30% chance high temperatures return to the 80s. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 615 PM CDT Fri May 23 2025 VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. We will remain on the far eastern edge of a storm system that should stay over the central Plains region tonight. Confidence is high for little, if any, impact from any showers that do move into our region, with no more than 20% chances of showers for BRL and CID. Given such confidence, decided to leave any precip mention out of these TAFs. Light and variable winds tonight will turn more east to northeasterly Saturday, but generally staying less than 10 knots. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Ervin LONG TERM...Ervin AVIATION...Schultz |
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