Heavy rain and widely scattered severe storms are expected over portions of the central and southern Plains into the Ohio Valley. Unseasonable warmth will continue for a few more days across the Midwest, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic where several daily record highs could fall. Read More >
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436 FXUS63 KDVN 151128 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 628 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A widespread rain will occur through early evening with possibly a rumble of thunder. No severe storms are expected. - A strong cold front will sweep through the area tonight bringing very windy conditions into Friday. Wind gusts up to 45 mph are possible. - Frost is a certainty across the area late Friday night into Saturday morning. The probability of a light freeze north of Highway 30 are now 50-60 percent. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 146 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Dry easterly flow is delaying the onset of rain. The lift is strong so once rain begins developing the areal coverage will increase quickly. The strong cold front will sweep through the area tonight turning winds around to the northwest. All models show a trop fold moving through the area late Thursday night and Friday. Said feature will result in very windy conditions from midnight through early Friday afternoon. Gusts to 40 mph will be common with localized gusts to 45 mph. The probabilities of wind headlines are currently at 25-30 percent. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 146 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Friday night through Wednesday Assessment...a certainty of frost late Friday night into Saturday morning. Clearing skies and light winds will result in frost occurring Friday night into Saturday morning. Overall probabilities of a light freeze continue to increase north of Highway 30. Freeze probabilities for those areas are now 50-60 percent. Frost headlines will be needed in the next 36 hours for the Friday night into Saturday morning time frame. Trends will continue to be watched regarding the possibility of freeze headlines. Frost will also be possible late Saturday night and Sunday morning east of the Mississippi. Unlike Friday night, it is expected to be more isolated. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 628 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Messy aviation conditions are expected for today, as an area of low pressure approaches the region this morning and quickly exits by this evening. Ahead of it, widespread showers (80-100% chances) and perhaps some isolated thunderstorms will develop over the region. Largely MVFR ceilings will transition to IFR ceilings, along with MVFR to isolated IFR visibility reductions. Confidence in these conditions are high, although the exact timing of transition still remains uncertain. As the low pressure system moves through late this morning into the afternoon, winds will become variable for a time before turning northwesterly in its wake. As the rain moves out, a tightening pressure gradient will lead to strengthening winds this evening through the day Friday, with gusts between 25 to 30 knots prior to 12z Friday (even stronger winds are expected after 12z). && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...Schultz |
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