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347 FXUS63 KDVN 021029 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 529 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 ...Updated for 12z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Smoke from Canadian wildfires will continue hazy skies through the weekend, with an Air Quality Alert remaining in effect for Iowa through tonight. - Gradual moderation through the 80s next week, with a few low rain chances (20 percent). && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Quiet and comfortable conditions will continue through the weekend, as high pressure over the western Great Lakes and dry, light easterly low level flow persist. Attendant subsidence will continue to foster the potential for some wildfire smoke to make it to the surface at times, owing to visibility restrictions 3-6SM and also impacts to air quality. In fact, an Air Quality Alert remains in effect for all of Iowa through 8 AM Sunday. However, some degradation in air quality is likely to impact all areas not just Iowa, and as such it is recommended to take it easy outdoors and avoid long or intense activities and take frequent breaks until the wildfire smoke disperses and air quality improves, which may not be until late in the weekend or early next week. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 A slow eastward progression of the high will foster a continuation of largely dry weather with a gradual moderation on temperatures into mid-week. A upper ridge will amplify over the southwest U.S. near the Four Corners region mid to late week, with very anomalous 500 hPa heights of around 600 dam! As the ridge amplifies the 1000-500 hpa thicknesses will climb over the region supporting additional warming at or above normal over the second half of the week into next weekend with NBM showing highs reaching the upper 80s and lower 90s. Dew points will also be climbing and leading to more typical summertime humidity. We`ll also see periodic storm chances at times mid to late week, as guidance suggests the potential for several disturbances to track along the northern periphery of the amplifying upper ridge across the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. PoPs are quite low (20%) at this time, as there remains large uncertainty on timing/strength/track of the shortwaves, but the ingredients appear favorable for some potential of organized convection in or near the area. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 525 AM CDT Sat Aug 2 2025 Periodic MVFR to lower VFR visibility reductions (4-6SM) in smoke/haze due to wildfire smoke is expected to persist through the TAF cycle. In addition, some patchy shallow fog with variable visibilities from VLIFR to MVFR is possible near KDBQ at the start of the TAF period and may redevelop again late tonight at all sites after 08z given light winds and small dewpoint depressions. Aside from the visibility concerns, clouds and any ceilings will remain VFR throughout. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...McClure LONG TERM...McClure AVIATION...McClure |
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