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333 FXUS63 KDVN 162320 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 520 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures, low humidity and dried fuels will result in a very high fire danger through Wednesday. Avoid any outdoor burning. - Anomalously warm temperatures will be seen through at least Wednesday. Record highs occurred Monday (2/16). There is a high probability for record warm lows Tuesday and Wednesday (2/17-2/18). Refer to the climate section for further information. - Isolated to scattered (20-50%) showers Tuesday night with a very low (10%) chance of a couple of thunderstorms. - More precipitation chances (30-70%) are expected Thursday into Friday with rain mixing with and changing to snow Thursday night into Friday. However, some areas may not see any precipitation. Temperatures will cool closer to seasonal normals. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... Issued at 308 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Unseasonably warm temperatures will be seen across the area through Tuesday with record warm lows likely, especially Tuesday. Strong winds with gusts up to 30 mph will diminish around sunset as the boundary layer decouples from the remainder of the atmosphere. By mid to late morning Tuesday, the nocturnal inversion breaks allowing windy conditions to return. Winds on Tuesday look to be a bit stronger than Monday with gusts up to 35 mph possible. The very dry conditions combined with warm temperatures and dried fuels will result in a very high fire risk for Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 308 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Tuesday night/Wednesday Assessment...very high (>90%) confidence of anomalously warm conditions. Low (<25%) confidence on rain chances. The anomalously warm conditions will continue through Wednesday with record warm lows expected for Wednesday. The model consensus has slightly lowered the rain chance for Tuesday night by roughly 5 percent and has kept Wednesday dry. The slight lowering appears to be in response to a faster storm movement. There are still questions regarding areal coverage of precipitation. Progged moisture is sadly limited so any convection that occurs will be elevated and most likely isolated. The GFS and few GEFS members that have precipitation are pushing the overall rain chances higher. The higher rain chances will be near the warm front that should be near or slightly north of Highway 30. South of the front, rain chances look much more isolated. At the same time thunder chances need to be considered. The LLJ is very impressive and there is broad synoptic lift from the upper jet. Thus while the thunder risk is no zero, it is low given the limited moisture. The models are inferring a weak low moving from southeast Nebraska into north central Iowa Tuesday night. Areas along and immediately east of this low would have the better chances of seeing an isolated rumble of thunder. Under this scenario areas northwest of a Freeport, IL to Sigourney, IA line would be more favorable location for any thunder to occur. For Wednesday the abnormally warm conditions will continue. Windy conditions combined with low humidity levels and dry fuels will keep a very high fire risk across the area. Wednesday night Assessment...very high (>90%) of above normal temperatures. A slowing of the next system will result in Wednesday night being dry but with well above normal temperatures. Attention then turns to the next system. Thursday through Friday Assessment...high (>80%) confidence of a storm system. Low to medium (25-50%) confidence on precipitation. All models take the track of the next system across eastern Iowa but at slightly different times. Moisture is initially limited but will surge north with time. However, plume forecasts show the better moisture push is into the Ohio Valley. This raises questions as to overall moisture available for precipitation. The model consensus has the best chances for precipitation Thursday afternoon/evening during the passage of the low. What is interesting is what the models are inferring with the system. Most of the models are showing the storm reaching peak strength (around 990 mb) with an occlusion occurring as it moves through the area. Thus precipitation will start out as rain Thursday afternoon with rain mixing with snow Thursday night, especially after midnight as colder air gets pulled in from the west and south. It is entirely possible that a complete change-over to all snow may occur prior to sunrise west of a Dubuque, IA to Williamsburg, IA line. Right now the model consensus has 40-60% chances for rain Thursday afternoon with 30-70% chances for precipitation Thursday night. On Friday, strong winds on the backside of the departing low will usher in much colder temperatures. The best chances for precipitation are Friday morning at 20-40%. As the thermal profile of the atmosphere cools Friday, the rain/snow mix will slowly change over to all snow. Snow accumulations on Friday look to be a dusting for areas north of Highway 30. Friday night through Monday Assessment...a certainty of temperatures much closer to normal. Low (<20%) confidence on precipitation. Over next weekend and into early the following week, a temporary shift to northwest flow aloft will result in temperatures much closer to normal. The change in flow pattern will push most systems well to the south of the area. The model consensus shows this with most of the period being dry. The exception is Saturday afternoon/night where the model consensus has a 20% chance of a rain/snow mix or mainly snow (Saturday night). Whether or not the precipitation chances Saturday/Saturday night will be realized is dependent upon the evolution of the Thursday/Friday system. Some model solutions persist cyclonic flow aloft with a cold thermal upper low moving into the Great Lakes. If this scenario is correct, then convectively driven rain/snow showers would be possible Saturday afternoon with patchy snow Saturday night. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/... Issued at 515 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026 Boundary layer is in the process of re-stablizing with sunset which will drop winds to under 10 knots. There may or may not be some patchy MVFR VSBYS toward sunrise Tuesday due to the lighter winds. The nocturnal inversion will break again 16-18z/17 with the potential for gusts to 30 knots. Looking further ahead there are signals suggesting LLWS developing after 00z/18 across eastern Iowa and northern Illinois. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 229 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026 Record high temperatures for February 16th Burlington, IA.......68 in 1921 Cedar Rapids, IA.....67 in 1921 Dubuque, IA..........60 in 1921 and previous years Moline, IL...........60 in 1921 Record warm lows for February 17th Dubuque, IA..........37 in 2011 Moline, IL...........42 in 2011 and previous years Record warm lows for February 18th Dubuque, IA..........37 in 1981 Moline, IL...........43 in 1997 && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...08 LONG TERM...08 AVIATION...08 CLIMATE...08 |
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