Additional rounds of thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Thursday night across Oklahoma and north Texas, with risks for both large hail and flash flooding. Strong winds may accompany any storms from east Texas northeast through the lower Great Lakes. Read More >
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245 FXUS63 KDVN 010826 AFDDVN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL 326 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Periodic chances of showers and a few thunderstorms will continue today through Friday. No strong to severe storms are expected at this time, although some small hail is possible this afternoon. - Seasonal temperatures are expected through the upcoming weekend, with above normal temperatures returning Tuesday and Wednesday next week. - A blocking pattern should help keep conditions dry for Sunday through at least Wednesday next week. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025 A soggy morning was seen across the area early this morning, with widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms ongoing around 08z/3 AM today. Light to moderate rainfall was seen ahead of an area of low pressure over northeastern Missouri, which will continue to lift northeastward this morning. Although the surface low is expected to quickly move out of the area late this morning, a few mid-level shortwaves embedded within a broad upper-level trough will continue to sweep through the area today. Once the surface low moves out, there should be a brief lull in rain showers late this morning into the early afternoon before another impulse moves through late this afternoon into the early evening. CAM guidance indicates some thunderstorm development will be possible (30-60% chances), given mixed-layer CAPE values progged around 500-1000 J/kg. However, modest mid-level lapse rates of 6 to 7 degree C/km will keep any large hail threat pretty limited, but at least some small hail will be possible with these PM storms. Today`s highs are forecast to warm to the lower 60s north to the upper 60s south. Easterly winds early this morning are also expected to gradually turn more westerly by this afternoon in the wake of the low pressure passage, but generally remaining light in nature (around 5 to 15 mph) Tonight, the early evening storms are expected to dissipate, becoming isolated showers late tonight, mainly over northwestern IL into far eastern IA. The lion`s share of the total rainfall today/tonight should be along and east of the MS River, where between 0.5" to 1.5" are possible per the 01.00z HREF probability- matched mean QPF. Most locations elsewhere will likely see around 0.1" to 0.5".| && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 325 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025 Additional chances (20-40%) of showers are on tap during the day Friday as the aforementioned upper-level trough sweeps through the area. Although guidance is in fairly good agreement with suggesting a mid-level PVA maxima to cross the area in the afternoon, CAM guidance shows some discrepancies among the timing and coverage of showers. For now, we have gone with the consensus blends for the PoPs. Eventually, the upper-level wave will move out of our region by this weekend, setting up very pleasant conditions! Largely dry conditions are expected as an area of high pressure builds over the northern Plains region and settles over Iowa. A glancing shower is possible over northwest IL Saturday. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will remain seasonal, with highs in the 60s. As we continue through the first half of next week, our local weather appears to remain pretty quiet, thanks to an omega blocking pattern that is expected to set up across the central CONUS. Upper- level ridging develops over our region, with cut-off upper-level lows on either side, so we`re stuck right in the middle. Despite being under this blocking pattern, southerly flow will help temperatures gradually increase to above normal, with highs returning to the upper 70s Tuesday and Wednesday. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1257 AM CDT Thu May 1 2025 A period of damp and dreary weather will continue across the area tonight into Thursday morning as an area of low pressure over north-central Missouri continues to lift northeastward. Light to moderate rainfall is expected, along with MVFR/IFR (isolated LIFR, too) expected with it. Confidence is a bit lower on the timing/duration of these conditions as current guidance seems to be struggling with even the current conditions, making for a more challenging forecast. However, upstream observations give more confidence in MVFR conditions over the next hour or two with IFR/LIFR conditions closer to the surface low as it lifts northward. Expect winds to turn quite a bit over time this morning, as well, as the low crosses the area. East winds presently will gradually turn more northwesterly by late this morning and westerly into the afternoon hours. However, winds will generally remain light, between 5 to 10 knots throughout the TAF period. && .DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IA...None. IL...None. MO...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Schultz LONG TERM...Schultz AVIATION...Schultz |
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