COZ294-161245-
COZ294-161245-
Southwest Colorado Upper West Forecast Area-
235 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Wrn Colorado and Ern Utah
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
235 PM MDT Thu May 15 2025

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers with a few thunderstorms will 
continue through this evening with gusty, erratic winds and some 
light rain and high mountain snow. Dry and warmer conditions
return Friday and Saturday with showers limited to the northern 
mountains. Critical fire weather conditions are possible Saturday
ahead of the next storm system, set to bring widespread 
precipitation and cooler temperatures Sunday into early next week.

...GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...
...THE SMOKE DATA IS CALCULATED FROM AN AVERAGE AT 6000 FEET MSL...


.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50%). Isolated showers until 
                    2400. 
Chc of lightning....0 percent. 
Min temperature.....27-37 F. 
Max humidity........47-57%. 
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph by sunset.
CWR.................10 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....West 25 to 35 mph. 
Mixing Height.......9500 ft AGL until 2000, then 1500 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....West 10 to 15 mph until 2400, then north 5 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 2100, then poor. 

.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (10-20%) until 1200, then partly 
                    cloudy (30-40%). 
Chc of lightning....0 percent. 
Max temperature.....53-63 F. 
Min humidity........13-23%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    west 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Localized 
                    gusts up to 25 mph. 
CWR.................0 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....West 20 to 30 mph decreasing to 20 to 25 mph in 
                    the afternoon. 
Mixing Height.......1000 ft AGL until 0800. 10000 ft AGL after 
                    0900. 
Transport Winds.....West 5 to 10 mph until 1200, then 15 to 20 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Excellent after 1200. 

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50%). 
Chc of lightning....0 percent. 
Min temperature.....35-45 F. 
Max humidity........33-43%. 
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph by sunset.
CWR.................0 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 20 to 25 mph. 
Mixing Height.......8500 ft AGL until 2000, then 1500 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....West 5 to 10 mph until 2400, then southeast. 
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 2100, then poor. 

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50%). 
Chc of lightning....0 percent. 
Max temperature.....55-65 F. 
Min humidity........11-16%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. 
                    Localized gusts up to 35 mph. 
CWR.................0 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 20 to 25 mph. 
Mixing Height.......1000 ft AGL until 0700. 12000 ft AGL after 
                    0800. 
Transport Winds.....South 10 to 15 mph until 1200, then southwest 
                    20 to 25 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Excellent after 1200. 

.FORECAST FOR DAY 3 THROUGH 7...
.SUNDAY...Cooler. Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and scattered
thunderstorms. Lows 35-45. Highs 46-56. Southwest winds 10 to
20 mph with gusts to  45 mph. 
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 27-37. Highs 43-53. West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 
30 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 26-36. Highs 53-63. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows 30-40. Highs 60-70. 
.THURSDAY...Clear. Lows 34-44. Highs 66-76.