Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 05/28/2026 11:18:00 AM UTC

                        
613
FXHW60 PHFO 280118 AAA
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
318 PM HST Wed May 27 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trades become moderate late this week through the weekend.
Scattered showers focus windward and mauka into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High stability remains firmly entrenched over the state. Breezy
trades are delivering showers to windward and mauka sections of
the islands this morning beneath the resident 8kft trade
inversion. No change in the large scale pattern is anticipated for
the next several days as the islands reside under or equatorward
of the subtropical jet placing the region beneath a broad swath of
large scale subsidence in maintenance of existing stability.
Sensible weather will be largely modulated by periodic
fluctuations in the trades which will weaken in concert with
periodic height falls across the Central/North Pacific. The first
such instance will be a gradual weakening of trades during the
latter half of this week in response to a rapidly weakening 1040mb
high migrating toward 35N and weakening considerably as it does
so. It is certainly plausible that trades are briefly lost
altogether early next week setting the stage for a period of
land/sea breezes. Given the high stability environment in place,
would expect little in the way of interior showers should that
pattern develop. Otherwise, scattered showers will focus windward
and mauka for the balance of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration over Kauai as
increased lower-level clouds create lower ceilings and
visibility. This AIRMET will continue through the afternoon and
possibly into the evening before the moisture passes to the west.
Additional windward areas could possilby be added with incoming
moisture tonight.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect across all islands for moderate
turbulence due to breezy trades and will likely be needed through
tonight.


&&

.MARINE...
A surface ridge north of the state will maintain breezy to strong
trade winds across the Hawaiian coastal waters through this
afternoon before a weakness developing in the ridge allows trade
wind speeds to ease slightly during the latter part of the week
into the weekend. With the ASCAT pass from earlier today showing
wind speeds already starting weaken, the Small Craft Advisory has
been scaled back to the typically windier waters around the Big
Island and Maui County. A more significant weakening of the trade
winds is likely this weekend into early next week as a large North
Pacific low pressure system far north of the islands breaks the
ridge down even further.

A small, long-period northwest swell is peaking as it fills in
down the island chain this afternoon. North- and west-facing
shores are experiencing near- to above-seasonal-average surf that
will hold through the evening before gradually subsiding into the
weekend.

A series of medium-period south swells will continue to bring
small surf to south facing shores through Thursday. A more
significant long-period south swell is expected to begin filling
in Thursday night and will likely bring above-advisory-level surf
to south-facing shores through the weekend. This swell originated
from a storm-force low that passed south and east of New Zealand
over the weekend, generating seas of 35 to 40 feet or greater
within Hawaiis swell AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration over Kauai as
increased lower-level clouds create lower ceilings and
visibility. This AIRMET will continue through the afternoon and
possibly into the evening before the moisture passes to the west.
Additional windward areas could possilby be added with incoming
moisture tonight.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect across all islands for moderate
turbulence due to breezy trades and will likely be needed through
tonight.
window, though the peak of the energy may pass just east of the
state. The buoys near American Samoa picked up a portion of this
swell today, seeming to peak around 5 feet 16 seconds, with the
peak of the swell also likely passing to their east. Elevated surf
along south-facing shores will likely continue into the first
week of June due to a continued active weather pattern near New
Zealand sending swells toward Hawaii.

Rough surf along east-facing shores will gradually lower Thursday
through the weekend as trade winds ease.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...Foster/Pechachek
MARINE...Farris