Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 11/05/2026 04:44:00 PM UTC

                        
334
FXHW60 PHFO 050644
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
844 PM HST Wed Nov 4 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Breezy to locally windy trade winds will persist through
Thursday. Pockets of moisture embedded with the trade wind flow
will focus showers over windward and mauka areas with some showers
spilling over leeward areas. Trades winds will increase in
strength Friday into Saturday due to a tropical disturbance
passing well to the south of the area and a strong high building
in from the northwest. Enhanced trade wind showers are also
anticipated for windward areas later this week and into the
weekend as tropical moisture surges in from the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...

A Wind Advisory has been issued for Kohala on Big Island as winds
have been particularly strong due to terrain and diurnal effects.
Latest high resolution model guidance suggests winds should ease
below advisory levels Thursday morning. However, will continue to
monitor trends overnight to determine if an extension is needed.

Radar imagery show scattered to numerous, light to moderate
showers moving over the central island chain. Rainfall totals for
the past 6 hours show most windward areas received between 0.20
to 0.40 inches for the wetter areas with central and leeward Oahu
receiving between 0.10 to 0.30 inches. Satellite imagery show and
area of enhanced low level clouds just west of the state that
will increase shower coverage later tonight and into Thursday
morning particularly for windward areas but with the breezy
trades some showers will spill to leeward areas. No changes to the
general forecast.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 PM HST Wed Nov 4 2026

After numerous showers in windward, mauka, and some leeward areas
of the smaller islands this morning, coverage has decreased this
afternoon and are focused mostly in windward areas. Little change
is expected tonight through at least Thursday. A ridge of high
pressure north of the state is driving breezy trades across the
island chain, which will continue. Additional pockets of moisture
will focus showers over windward and mauka areas, particularly
during the overnight and early morning hours.

An area of showers and thunderstorms is gradually becoming better
organized well southeast of the state. There remains a high
chance (70 percent) of this activity gradually developing into a
tropical cyclone within a few days. The ridge to our north will
steer this system westward and keep direct impacts well to the
south. However, a rich plume of moisture will pass through
southern parts of the state characterized by anomalously high pwats
around 2.25 inches. The last several model runs have shown a
consistent trend with bringing this deep moisture farther north.
What looked like the Big Island being grazed with this moisture 24
hours ago now looks like at least the Big Island and Maui, perhaps
as far north as Oahu. In addition, with surface high pressure
settling southeast toward the state while the potential tropical
system passes to the south, trades may strengthen further Friday
into Saturday. Timing consistency is improving between the GFS and
the ECMWF with the deep moisture arriving by late Friday morning
and exiting to the west sometime Saturday morning. PoPs and QPF
have been increased during this period for windward areas, but
given the trades and moisture content of the airmass, some of
these showers may spill into leeward areas as well. Locally heavy
rainfall will be possible.

After the passage of that system, much drier air and lower
inversion heights will filter in from the east northeast Sunday
into next week. Shower coverage will decrease, but a few may
remain possible in windward locations each day.

&&

.AVIATION...

Breezy trades expected for next few days. Low cigs and SHRA will
continue over windward and mauka locations with some spillover
into leeward areas at times. MVFR conds in SHRA, otherwise VFR
prevails.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward portions of
all island except Lanai. Conds should improve in the mid morning
hours.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod turb lee of terrain and
should remain in effect for next few days.


&&

.MARINE...
Fresh to strong trade winds will remain in place throughout the
week as a broad area of high pressure remains in place north of
the state. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for all
Hawaiian Waters and the SCA conditions will likely persist across
the state through the weekend due to a combination of winds and
seas. Additionally this weekend, a tropical cyclone could pass far
south of the state. According to National Hurricane Center, there
is a medium chance of formation during the next 48 hours.

Surf along north and west-facing shores will quickly build late
tonight into the morning hours on Thursday as a new long-period
north-northwest swell arrives. Latest buoy reading at buoy 51001
as of 710 PM showed a significant increase of energy across the 17
to 19 seconds spectral bands, which should translate to surf
quickly exceeding advisory levels during the morning hours on
Thursday. High Surf Advisory is in effect for most north and west
facing shores of the smaller islands on Thursday. This swell is
expected to peak during the day Thursday then fade over the next
few days. Surf will likely be at borderline High Surf Advisory
thresholds on Friday as the north-northwest swell declines.
Additional reinforcing energy is expected out of the north-
northwest over the weekend, which could produce advisory level
surf once again Saturday night into Sunday morning.

A compact fetch of gales passing east of New Zealand last week
Friday should produce some waves slightly above average around
Friday into Saturday along south facing shores. Surf along east-
facing shores will stay elevated and choppy through much of the
week due to the strong trades.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 334 PM HST Wed Nov 4 2026
Persistent rainfall will likely limited the widespread
availability of receptive fuels. Breezy winds will continue during
the next several days, generating moderate fire weather
conditions. The inversion near Big Island will range from 6000 to
8000 ft over the next few days.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM HST Friday for
Kauai North-Kauai Southwest-Maui Central Valley North-Maui
Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-
Oahu North Shore-Waianae Coast-Windward Haleakala.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Big Island North-
Kohala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai
Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$


SHORT TERM UPDATE...Almanza
DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Borghoff
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Kino