Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 09/04/2026 07:09:00 PM UTC

                        
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FXHW60 PHFO 040909
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1109 PM HST Thu Sep 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
A high pressure ridge to the north and Hurricane Lowell passing
south of the Hawaiian Islands will keep breezy trade winds in the
forecast on Friday. Expect decreasing wind speeds this weekend as
a low pressure trough moving into the Central Pacific basin
weakens the ridge north of the state. Expect continued passing
showers favoring windward mountain areas with brief showers over
leeward zones. Hurricane Lowell will begin to drift northward
later this weekend, potentially bringing impacts to the western
most islands from Monday into Tuesday. Please continue to closely
monitor the weather forecast for early next week as the track and
associated impacts with Hurricane Lowell will likely evolve over
time.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
Hurricane Lowell is 495 miles SSW of Hilo and 590 miles S of
Lihue at the 5 PM HST from the latest National Hurricane Center
(NHC) advisory. Even though the forecast track on the northward
turn of Lowell remains at lower confidence levels, we should
continue to prepare for higher surf, strong winds and increasing
heavy rainfall trends as Lowell eventually drifts northward
through the region. Western islands of Niihau, Kauai and Oahu will
see the highest impact threats at this time. However, locally
heavy showers may develop on any island as this large unstable
tropical system passes through the area. Please continue to
closely monitor the weather forecast for early next week as the
track and associated impacts with Hurricane Lowell will likely
evolve over time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 PM HST Thu Sep 3 2026

Strong gradient winds resulting from the pressure difference
between the storm and the subtropical high the north is resulting
in strong trade winds across the islands through Friday. Scattered
clouds and showers moving in with the trades will focus across
windward slopes but may occasionally reach leeward sides of the
smaller islands. A Wind Advisory goes through tonight for portions
of Oahu, Maui County and Big Island with sustained winds 20 to 30
mph and gusts to 50 mph. This advisory may need to be extended
into Friday, but by Saturday, a weekend Hurricane Karina will
begin to disrupt the trade wind flow and likely weaken the speeds
a bit. Typical summertime trade winds and night/early morning
windward showers are forecast Saturday and through the day Sunday.

Attention will shift late Sunday into early next week to the
forecast track of Hurricane Lowell, currently a category 4
hurricane. The NHC track forecast moves Lowell slowly westward
through Friday night with an abrupt northward turn and increase in
forward speed on Saturday. While confidence is low whether a
direct impact will occur or not, Lowell will likely bring some
impacts to the state including storm surge, high surf, wind, and
rainfall impacts to portions of Hawaii, particularly as it moves
closest to Kauai County Monday night. The extent of these impacts
could range from minor to major depending on the eventual path of
the storm, and more specifically when the abrupt turn to the
north occurs. Regardless, Lowell is forecast to be a category 3
hurricane at its closest proximity. Coastal inundation could also
be exacerbated by the peak monthly high tides that are expected to
occur Monday. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely
monitor the progress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day
weekend, listen to the advice of officials, and ensure they have
their hurricane plan and supply kit in place.

Please visit the hurricanes.gov page for the official NHC forecast
for Lowell.

On Tuesday, winds will weaken shift south to southeastly in the
wake of Lowell, but lingering shower bands may occur through the
day. Karina will weaken to a remnant low and eventually be
absorbed into Lowell north of the state midweek. Winds will
eventually shift back to trades during the second half of the week
with no significant weather events expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Mostly VFR through the night with the exception of passing MVFR
showers favoring windward mountain areas. Weakening trades will
occur overnight with some sites gusting near 30 kts after 20z Fri.
Brief showers return by Friday night with locally MVFR cigs.

Hurricane Lowell will continue to pass south of the island chain
through Saturday. On this westerly track, regional trade winds
will remain breezy per a tight pressure gradient between the
hurricane and high pressure to the far north.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence
south through west downstream of high terrain. AIRMET Tango will
likely be in effect for the foreseeable future.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong surface high persists far north of the Hawaiian Islands
and will slowly drift east through the weekend. Currently,
Hurricane Lowell is passing near 450 nm south of the islands as it
continues to track west. The interaction between the two will
strengthen the trade winds across the coastal waters to fresh to
locally near gale force. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been
extended for all Hawaiian Waters through Saturday and will likely
be extended.

The latest track from Hurricane Lowell from the National Hurricane
Center is bringing Tropical Storm conditions to the far southern
offshore waters. Although as Hurricane Lowell turns north,
confidence is growing for hurricane conditions to the southwest
and western offshore waters on Sunday. How close it gets to the
state, is yet to be determined. As for Hurricane Karina,
confidence is increasing that Karina will pass to the north and
northeast of the state.

Swells from Hurricane Lowell has filled in and will remain
elevated above High Surf Advisory (HSA) conditions through Saturday.
A large, medium-period east swell from Hurricane Karina is filling in
and will continue though the weekend, producing high end advisory
level surf or warning level surf along east facing shores. The HSA
has been extended in time and expanded to include east facing shores.
The swell from Lowell will gradually veer from southeast towards the
southwest early next week. While, the forecast for swells and seas for
next week will highly depend on the eventual track and intensity of
Lowell, confidence is beginning to increase for the potential of
extra- large surf (exceeding warning levels) along south and western
exposures early next week. Coinciding also with monthly high tides,
this will create the potential for impacts to harbor entrances,
channels, as well as coastal properties and infrastructure including
roadways.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 310 PM HST Thu Sep 3 2026
Trade winds will remain strong and gusty into Friday. Gusts to,
or over 50 mph, will be possible in the typical windy areas.
Relative humidity values are forecast to remain too high for
critical fire criteria to be reached, and fuels are currently
rated as not critical. Therefore, the strong winds will not
trigger fire weather watches or warnings. The trade inversion is
forecast to be 6000 ft to 7000 ft through tonight.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Big Island East-
Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-East
Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kauai
South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu-Kona-Koolau Windward-Lanai
Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-
Molokai Leeward South-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai
Windward-Niihau-Olomana-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-
Waianae Coast-Windward Haleakala.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Big Island North-Big
Island South-Big Island Southeast-Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa
Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu-Kohala-Koolau Leeward-
Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui
Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-
Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai
Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-South
Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains-Windward
Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai
Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM UPDATE...Bohlin
DISCUSSION...Foster
AVIATION...APR
MARINE...Walsh
FIRE WEATHER...Foster