Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 02/13/2026 05:17:00 PM UTC

                        
539
FXHW60 PHFO 130717
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
917 PM HST Thu Feb 12 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Trade winds will continue through the weekend and into next week,
bringing showers to the usual areas, with Sunday seeing the most
showers. A trough may move close enough to put us in a wetter
pattern from the middle to the end of next week, but confidence is
not high at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM HST Thu Feb 12 2026

No changes to the forecast philosophy at this time, and with the
forecast on track, no updates anticipated this evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 307 PM HST Thu Feb 12 2026

Scattered showers were occurring this afternoon across all
islands, favoring windward and mauka areas, but also in the Kona
region of Big Island. Precipitation recorded so far today is
generally around a tenth of an inch or so, with higher amounts at
higher elevations and in some windward locations. Skies were
partly to mostly cloudy, and highly variable in both time and
space. Trade winds were blowing out of the east averaging 10-20
mph with gusts 20-30 mph.

A strong surface high north of the state, associated with a high-
amplitude upper level ridge, will get even stronger through
Saturday before weakening Sunday into early next week. The result
for our weather will be a continuation of trade winds and the
typical windward and mauka showers that come with that. Winds will
be moderate, but below advisory threshold over land.

An enhanced band of moisture will move east to west through the
state Sunday into Sunday night, bringing a slight increase in
showers. The upper level ridge referenced earlier will shift east
and weaken Monday into Tuesday as a high-amplitude trough attempts
to move east across the central Pacific. By Wednesday and Thursday
of next week, models show a large spread of potential strength and
location of this next upper trough. The latest deterministic GFS
shows a moderate closed low moving into position just a few
hundred miles northwest of the state. This would like put us back
in a wet pattern for the middle to latter part of next week. The
latest EC has most of the energy going farther north of the state,
with only weak troughing to our west. The ensembles are split as
well, so we will continue to watch this potential system over the
coming days until some convergence in solutions occurs.

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued at 307 PM HST Thu Feb 12 2026

Breezy trades will continue to persist over most of the island
chain. Intermittent mountain and windward showers are expected to
persist as well, with MVFR conditions possible under shower
activity. Leeward sites expected to remain VFR.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration for Kauai,
Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island for windward sections due
to ongoing showers and low ceilings. Conditions are largely
expected to persist through the evening.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below 7 kft
for leeward sides of the islands. Conditions are expected to
persist for the next several days.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 915 PM HST Thu Feb 12 2026

Strong high pressure building far north of the waters will
continue to drift east supporting moderate to strong easterly
trade winds and elevated seas into next week. Winds look to
maintain strong speeds but veer slightly early next week as  high
pressure continues to tracks east and a potential disturbance may
develop to the west northwest of the islands too. A Small Craft
Advisory (SCA) is in effect for all coastal waters through Friday
night and will likely be extended through the weekend.

A small to moderate medium to long period northwest swell will
continue to build slowly overnight and peak Friday into Saturday
just below High Surf Advisory (HSA) levels, before declining
through the weekend. Looking into next week, small background
northwest swell energy is expected through the forecast period.

Surf along east facing shores will continue to build over all
waters into this weekend and early next week due to persistent
strong trades locally and upstream of the islands. A HSA is likely
for east facing shores over the weekend.

Surf along south shores remains small with some background trade
wind swell for select exposures.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai
Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$

UPDATE...M Ballard
DISCUSSION...Parker
AVIATION...Thomas/Evans
MARINE...Shigesato