Area Forecast Discussion Issued: 03/28/2026 12:00:00 AM UTC
752
FXHW60 PHFO 271400
AFDHFO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
400 AM HST Fri Mar 27 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A band of showers currently over Oahu this morning will expand
towards Maui County during the day today and over the Big Island
on Saturday. Our moderate to locally breezy northeasterly trade
winds will focus the showers over windward and mauka areas with
brief downpours possible. A drier airmass will return over the
western half of the state by Saturday afternoon, while showery
conditions could persist over the windward areas of the eastern
half of the state. Our north-northeast to northeast trade winds
will strengthen this weekend and become locally strong by Saturday
evening. Gusty winds are expected over leeward areas this
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM HST Fri Mar 27 2026
This mornings satellite imagery shows an increase of showers
across the state especially over windward areas. 12Z Lihue and
Hilo soundings show a strong inversion located at around 6000 to
7000 feet with precipitable water values of around an inch. While
moisture values remain lower than normal, a gradual increase is
expected today especially over Oahu and Maui County. Our north-
northeast to northeast trade winds will also strengthen today into
Saturday, which should increase orographic lift over windward
mountain slopes and allow for some moderate showers. While heavy
showers are not expected due to the strong trade wind inversion,
brief downpours will be possible at times and we could see some
showers anchoring along windward mountains through Saturday
morning. A few inches of rain will be possible over the windward
slopes during this time especially over the windward mountains of
Maui County tonight.
On Saturday, a dying front will pass through parts of the state
with a strong high building behind the front. A drier air mass
with dewpoints down into the 50s will fill in behind the front
over the western half of the state by Saturday afternoon. Our
north-northeast to northeast trade winds will strengthen to
locally strong speeds and will likely produce gusty winds across
leeward areas through Sunday. Wind gusts of 40 mph will be
possible with gusts up to 50 mph not out of the question.
Depending on how strong the wind gusts become during the day
Saturday, a Wind Advisory may be needed over select leeward areas
for Saturday evening into Sunday. Meanwhile, moisture will likely
linger over the eastern half of the state this weekend especially
the Big Island. Some steady periods of light to moderate showers
will be possible over windward Big Island especially Saturday
through Sunday morning.
For the first half of next week, trade winds will gradually weaken
to our more typical breezy speeds and shift more easterly as the
high to our north drifts further east. A subtle increase of
moisture will likely bring the return of scattered showers across
the state primarily over windward and mauka areas.
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued at 400 AM HST Fri Mar 27 2026
Light to moderate trade winds are expected to prevail across the
islands, however a system to the northeast will push some moisture
across the islands today, making for periodic windward showers and
even some lee side showers at times today, mainly during the first
half of the period. VFR is generally expected to prevail, however
localized MVFR conditions are possible under showers.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect across the islands for moderate
turbulence between FL270 and FL350. These conditions are expected
to improve throughout the day today.
AIRMET Sierra is in effect for windward Kauai and Oahu due to
shower activity. Conditions are expected to improve later today,
however other islands may need to be considered for expansion
depending on where moisture from the aforementioned system tracks.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 400 AM HST Fri Mar 27 2026
A low pressure system northeast of the islands and a high
pressure system to the far northwest of the Hawaii region will
keep northeasterly trade winds in the forecast through early next
week. Wind speeds for much of the coastal waters will be moderate
to fresh this morning, though strong winds in the vicinity of
Kauai have necessitated the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) for the Leeward and Northwest Waters of Kauai, as well as
the Kauai Channel. By this afternoon, a tightening pressure
gradient across the islands is expected to spread Small Craft
winds to the majority of the leeward waters and channels, with the
exception of the Big Island. Winds are likely to increase to
fresh to strong speeds and become more widespread by Saturday
afternoon as a cold front sweeps southward across the islands.
SCA criteria are likely to be sustained into early next week as
high pressure builds to the north of the islands.
A small bump in surf is forecast today as another small medium-
period northwest swell arrives. The bump in surf sustains through
Saturday before gradually fading through the rest of the weekend.
For east facing shores, short-period wind wave energy from
northeasterly trade winds will fade today, then build back in this
weekend. A large short- to medium-period north-northeast (010-020
degrees) swell will build into the region Saturday night through
Monday, likely bringing advisory-level surf to north- and east-facing
shores late this weekend into early next week.
Along south-facing shores, small background pulses will keep surf
heights above flat conditions through early next week.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Kauai Channel-
Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 6 PM HST Saturday for
Alenuihaha Channel-Kaiwi Channel-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward
Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Evans
MARINE...Quesada
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