Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 11/11/2026 11:29:00 PM UTC

                        
352
FXHW60 PHFO 111329
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
329 AM HST Wed Nov 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Strong and gusty trade winds expected through Thursday as a new
high builds north of the state. Relatively dry conditions are
expected today with windward and mauka showers tonight into
Thursday as a band of moisture moves from north to south across
the state. Moderate to locally breezy trades will briefly return
around Friday or Saturday, but trade winds will strengthen once
again Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A high building far north of the state will strengthen the trade
winds and will bring windy conditions across the state. A Wind
Advisory is in effect for the typical windy areas around Maui
County and the Big Island until 6AM Thursday. Winds will be
strongest through gaps, and over and downslope of ridges through
Wednesday evening. Wind gusts of 50 mph are expected during this
time. For Oahu and Kauai strong and gusty trades are possible but
confidence was to low to include them in the wind advisory at this
time. The combination of strong trade winds and mostly dry
conditions will elevate fire weather concerns today.

A frontal boundary is expected to move north through south of the
island chain tonight into Thursday, which should bring a brief
increase of scattered showers, especially over windward and mauka
areas. The strong trade winds should begin to ease some by Friday
afternoon down to breezy to locally strong speeds. From Friday
through the weekend, we should see our typical trade wind showers
most frequent during the overnight and early morning hours over
windward and mauka areas. Trade winds should restrengthen back to
strong levels Saturday night into Sunday as another high passes
far north of the state.

&&

.AVIATION...

Locally strong trade winds are expected through tonight. Showers
will continue to be carried in on the trade wind flow, and
primarily impact the windward and mountain areas. Brief MVFR
conditions are expected within showers while VFR prevails
elsewhere.

AIRMET Tango will remain in effect for moderate turbulence
downwind of terrain due to the breezy to locally strong trade
winds. Expect this AIRMET to remain in place for the foreseeable
future. Upper level turbulence is also possible over the state,
however those conditions are expected to improve today.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscurations for windward
areas of Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island. Conditions are
improving for Molokai and Maui, and that may be dropped later this
morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong high pressure north of Hawaii is producing fresh to strong
winds across the marine areas this morning. Winds may be locally
higher through the typical windier channels and waters near Maui
County and the Big Island, for which a Gale Warning remains in
effect through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in
effect for all other coastal waters, and this may need to be
extended into Thursday for most waters.

Seas are also forecast to exceed 10 feet later today into Thursday
with the arrival of a large north-northwest swell. Meanwhile, a
front will drop south from the northern offshore waters to reach
the central waters as it weakens into a trough by tonight. The
trough will bring increased shower activity to the area through
Thursday. Winds will gradually ease through Saturday as high
pressure weakens slightly, but this weekend another strong area of
high pressure passes north of the islands, which may lead to
another period of strong winds Sunday into early next week.

A large, long-period north-northwest swell (340 degree) swell arrives
today and will bring rapidly increasing surf to north and west-facing
shores. Surf will reach advisory level this morning and approach
warning level surf tonight and linger into Thursday. A High Surf
Advisory remains in effect for north and west-facing shores of
Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai and for north-facing shores of Maui
through Thursday afternoon. Surf will decrease Friday followed by a
north swell this weekend which could push surf back to advisory
levels on Sunday.

Surf along east facing shores will increase today as trade winds
strengthen. East shore surf will remain elevated and choppy through
Friday, then may diminish slightly this weekend. A small, long-period
south swell may bring a small bump to south shore surf today into
Thursday. Surf becomes tiny again Friday into the weekend for south-
facing shores.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Fire weather conditions will remain near critical levels over the
next several days, mainly do the uptick in winds that will
persist through Thursday. With the trades strengthening under a
drier air mass, winds and humidity will likely reach critical
thresholds today, while fuel conditions remain below critical
thresholds due to the above average rainfall over the past few
months. Due to the fuels, Red Flag Warnings are not expected at
this time, but near critical fire weather conditions are expected
through Thursday. Winds should ease slightly with a modest
increase of humidities on Friday.

Temperature inversion heights will remain between 5,300 and 6,700
feet across the state. The strong low level inversion will make
winds quite gusty especially during the afternoons and evenings
downwind of terrain over the next several days.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Niihau-Waianae
Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai North-Molokai
Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Maui Central Valley North-
Windward Haleakala.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-
Maui Leeward West-Kohala-Molokai-Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-
Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-South
Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui
County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Big Island
Windward Waters.

Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Thursday for Maalaea Bay-Pailolo
Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island
Southeast Waters.

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Walsh
AVIATION...M Ballard
MARINE...Quesada
FIRE WEATHER...Walsh