Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 07/19/2026 11:08:00 AM UTC

                        
982
FXHW60 PHFO 190108
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
308 PM HST Sat Jul 18 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Locally breezy trade winds will continue but ease a bit early
next week. A trend toward fewer windward and mauka showers, and
more sunshine, is expected Sunday as drier air pushes in on the
trades. At this time, we don`t see any significant areas of
enhanced moisture moving toward the state, so relatively dry
trades should continue through late next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Radar shows only isolated light showers this afternoon as an area
of higher moisture has now moved west of the state. Winds were
moderate to breezy, with sustained winds averaging 10 to 20 mph
and gusts blowing 20 to 30 mph (30-35 at the usual windy spots).

A strong surface high well to the north will keep moderate to
occasionally breezy trade winds blowing for the next week (at
least), with only slight variations in speed. Showers should be
relatively light because moisture will be limited, with PW values
coming in around a quarter inch below normal. Models are not
displaying any significant areas of increased moisture headed
toward the state over the next 5-7 days.

We are keeping an eye on the developing tropical disturbance
several hundred miles SW of Ixtapa, Mexico. Various ensemble
systems have been showing a small potential for this system to
bring us some tropical trouble in about a week and a half or so.
It`s much too early to forecast any details, and please note that
may ensemble members don`t bring it near the state. However, let
it serve as a good reminder to stay, or become, prepared.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate trades will continue through Sunday, with just a slight
decrease in speed tomorrow. Clouds and isolated to scattered showers
will remain over windward and mauka locations. Conditions will be
VFR apart from isolated MVFR over windward and mauka areas in
clouds and showers.

No AIRMETs are in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
Fresh to locally strong trade winds will continue tonight and
slowly begin subsiding tomorrow afternoon into Monday. As a
result, the SCA will be scaled back to the typical areas around
Big Island and Maui tonight before dropping off completely
tomorrow night. Winds will then be moderate Monday and Tuesday as
the high pressure to the north weakens. High pressure will then
rebuild and restrengthen trade winds during the second half of
next week.

Surf along south facing shores will remain near the summertime average
through the afternoon and tonight. A larger, moderate south swell
is expected to build Sunday through early next week, bringing
potentially High Surf Advisory level conditions Monday and
Tuesday. As this swell slowly fades into the middle of next week,
another moderate south- southwest swell is expected to arrive on
Thursday, keeping surf elevated into next weekend.

A small, medium-period west-northwest swell will gradually fade
through the weekend, causing surf along north-facing shores to
drop to flat/tiny levels.

East facing shores will remain choppy tonight and then will
gradually drop through the rest of the weekend into early next
week as trade winds ease. Energy from Tropical Storm Elida may
reach the islands during the middle of next week and bring a
slight boost for east facing shores. Additionally, as the trades
ramp up during the later half of next week, surf will also
increase.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Maalaea Bay.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Parker
AVIATION...Parker
MARINE...Tsamous