Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 02/07/2026 04:30:00 PM UTC

                        
527
FXHW60 PHFO 070630
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
830 PM HST Fri Feb 6 2026

.UPDATE...
Currently at the surface, a slow moving cold front is located in
the Kauai Channel just east of Oahu as of 8 pm HST. Behind the
front moderate to breezy north winds have filled in with gusts as
high as 40 mph reported at Barking Sands within the past couple of
hours. Ahead of the front light and variable winds prevail.
Infrared satellite imagery depicts mostly cloudy to overcast
conditions across the smaller islands, while partly to mostly
cloudy skies are present on the Big Island. Radar imagery shows
scattered to numerous showers across the smaller islands, with
fewer showers over the Big Island. Main short term focus revolves
around rain chances and the potential for some heavy rain tonight
in Kauai.

The front will move slowly southeastward through Oahu and into
Maui County tonight, with scattered to numerous showers
accompanying the feature, and breezy north to northeast winds
filling in behind it. Thus far rainfall intensity has remained
under control, although there is some concern that it could
increase particularly over the north coast of Kauai later tonight
where it will be enhanced by orographic lift provided by the
strong northerly flow. We will monitor rain/stream gauges closely
through the night for potential need for flood advisories. Update
will be sent out shortly.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through Oahu tonight, then slow and stall
near Maui County by early Saturday. This frontal boundary
combined with increasing moisture and a disturbance aloft, will
bring the potential for heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and a few
thunderstorms from Saturday afternoon through Monday. Breezy north
to northeasterly winds will develop behind the front, then the
trades will become very windy late Sunday into Monday as strong
high pressure builds well north of the state and interacts with a
deepening trough to the west. Conditions will gradually improve by
mid to late next week, though breezy and occasionally showery
trade wind weather is expected to persist.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 345 PM HST Fri Feb 6 2026/

Visible satellite imagery this afternoon highlights two key
features impacting the forecast: a cold front on Kauais doorstep
and a plume of moisture lifting northward across the central
islands within a weakly convergent southwesterly flow.

The cold front is expected to move across Kauai late this
afternoon or early this evening, then continue gradually down the
island chain toward Oahu late tonight before slowing and stalling
near Maui County on Saturday. Shower coverage will increase along
and ahead of the front, with the greatest potential for heavy
rainfall tonight across north- and east-facing areas of Kauai.
Some high-resolution model guidance suggests rainfall totals of 1
to 3 inches in these areas by Saturday morning. Meanwhile,
isolated to scattered showers will continue to filter across the
central islands on the weakly convergent southwesterly flow. As
the front reaches Oahu late tonight and Maui County on Saturday,
showers will increasingly focus over windward and mauka areas.

As the front stalls and begins to weaken over Maui County on
Saturday, it will interact with the weak surface convergence zone
embedded in the southwesterly flow ahead of it. This interaction
will lead to expanding shower coverage statewide. With deep
moisture supplied by these two features spreading across the
islands and increasing instability as much cooler air filters in
aloft with an upper level disturbance, the threat for heavy rain
and flooding will rise, particularly over windward and mauka
areas. Model guidance suggests that some of these areas may
receive 3 to 6 inches of rain from tonight through Monday.
Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible within the more
robust shower bands. A Flood Watch remains in effect for all
islands from noon Saturday through 6 PM Monday.

In addition to the flooding threat, winds also become a concern
Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds in behind the front and
a surface trough forms and deeps west of the state. The
tightening pressure gradient between these surface features will
strengthen the trade winds likely to Wind Advisory criteria late
Sunday into Monday, with the potential for isolated High Wind
Warning level gusts across some leeward downsloping areas.

Finally, winter weather impacts are possible for the Big Island
summits this weekend. As deep moisture overspreads the island, an
upper level disturbance nudges in from the northwest, and
temperatures aloft drop below freezing, conditions will become
favorable for heavy snowfall at the summits. As a result, a Winter
Storm Watch remains in effect for the summits of Mauna Kea and
Mauna Loa from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon.

Conditions will gradually improve for the middle and latter
portion of next week, although a somewhat showery and breezy
trade wind pattern will likely persist.

AVIATION...
- UPDATED 830 PM HST Fri Feb 6 2026

A strong cold front is moving through the island chain and a
separate band of moisture is moving southwest to northeast over
Maui County. The front is bringing low cigs, SHRA and
strengthening north winds to Kauai and Oahu this evening, with
Maui County overnight and the Big Island tomorrow. IFR to MVFR
conds expected, with localized LIFR conds, with FROPA.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc from Kauai to Maui and
will likely linger overnight. It will most likely be expanded to
the Big Island tomorrow. If conds deteriorate further Sierra may
be needed for IFR conds.

AIRMET Tango for mod turb will likely become necessary overnight
and Saturday as winds increase, starting with Kauai and spreading
eastward.


MARINE...
A front currently near Kauai will move to Oahu waters tonight,
then stall and dissipate over Maui County waters Saturday. High
pressure building behind the front will produce fresh to strong
northeasterly trade winds around Kauai and Oahu tonight and
expand to Maui County waters Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory
(SCA) remains in effect around Kauai and Oahu for a combination of
the increasing winds and combined seas in excess of 10 feet from a
building west-northwest swell. The SCA has been expanded to Maui
County waters Saturday. Over Big Island waters, gentle to
moderate southerly winds will give way to strengthening easterly
winds on Saturday. As the high expands later in the weekend, trade
winds will strengthen to near gale to gale force over most waters
late Sunday and Monday. While the SCA now runs through Sunday
afternoon, it will need to be expanded to all Hawaiian waters and
extended through at least Monday, and a Gale Watch may be issued
overnight for some waters. In addition, expect heavy showers and
isolated thunderstorms over most waters Saturday through Monday.
Winds are expected to ease Tuesday but still remain in the fresh
to strong range through Wednesday.

A large west-northwest swell (295-310 degrees) will build down
the island chain through the evening and peak late tonight into
early Saturday. Recent observations at NOAA buoys northwest of
Kauai indicate that the swell is coming in a couple of feet larger
than guidance at 14 to 16 feet with significant energy spread
between 13 to 19 second periods. A High Surf Warning (HSW) remains
in place for rapidly rising surf across north and west facing
shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai this afternoon and
evening, and given the larger swell, the HSW has been expanded to
north shores of Maui. The swell will reach west facing shores of
the Big Island around sunrise, and a High Surf Advisory is in
effect for that area through at least the afternoon. The swell
will decline sharply late Saturday, with surf expected to fall
below advisory levels on all shores by Sunday morning. Small to
moderate north-northwest swells will prevail through the remainder
of the week.

Surf along east facing shores will remain very small into the
evening. East shore surf will build and become rough from west to
east late tonight and Saturday as the front moves down the island
chain. Large and very rough seas will develop on Sunday as trade
winds strengthen, likely exceeding the advisory level Sunday night
or Monday and potentially reaching the warning level. Large east
shore surf will slowly decline Tuesday through the remainder of
the week. Surf along south facing shores will remain small with a
slight bump possible early next week.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Saturday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai
North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Maui Central
Valley North-Windward Haleakala.

Flood Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday afternoon for
Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Kauai Mountains-Waianae Coast-Oahu North
Shore-Olomana-Central Oahu-Waianae Mountains-Lanai Mauka-
Kahoolawe-Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Haleakala Summit-
Kona-Kohala-Big Island Interior-Kauai North-Kauai East-Kauai
South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Koolau Windward-
Koolau Leeward-Molokai-Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-
Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Windward
Haleakala-Kipahulu-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big
Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island East-Big Island
North.

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for
Kauai Leeward-Kauai Mountains-Waianae Coast-Central Oahu-Waianae
Mountains-Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Kohala-Big
Island Interior-Kauai South-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Koolau
Leeward-Molokai West-Molokai Leeward South-Lanai Windward-Lanai
Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central
Valley South.

High Surf Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM HST Saturday for Kona-
Kohala.

Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
afternoon for Big Island Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM HST Sunday for
Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-
Maui County Leeward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-
Alenuihaha Channel.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Jelsema
DISCUSSION...Farris
AVIATION...Walsh
MARINE...Wroe