Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 02/14/2026 11:19:00 PM UTC

                        
308
FXHW60 PHFO 141319
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
319 AM HST Sat Feb 14 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

Trade winds will continue into next week, bringing showers to the
usual windward and mauka locations. A slight increase in showers
is expected Sunday and Sunday night. Winds will increase through
the weekend and into next week as the pressure gradient
strengthens over the islands. Trade winds will become southeast
Tuesday night and remain that way through the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Isolated showers are ongoing across most windward and mauka areas
this morning. A trough is bringing in some upper level clouds from
the south as evident on satellite imagery. Trade winds will
continue through the weekend, and strengthen through Sunday. This
should continue the windward and mauka showers that are typical in
a trade wind regime. Winds will strengthen slightly and continue
well into next week. An upper level trough approaching from the
northwest around midweek appears strong enough to turn our surface
winds to out of the southeast Tuesday night. Though is it
forecast to weaken as it swings through the state it should be
enough to keep our winds out of the southeast through the forecast
period.


&&

.AVIATION...

Moderate to breezy easterly trade winds will prevail across the
islands through the weekend and well into next week. Showers and
occasional low clouds embedded within the trade wind flow will
generally favor north through east sections of the islands
throughout this period. While VFR flight conditions are expected
to prevail at most locations today, a band of moisture moving into
the state from the east early this morning is expected to
increase windward and mountain shower activity, particularly over
the eastern end of the state. Looking ahead, guidance continues
to show an additional, more robust, band of showers moving into
the islands on Sunday. This will likely lead to an increase in
MVFR conditions across windward and mountain locations for most
islands.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence downwind
of island terrain. These conditions are expected to continue into
the foreseeable future, as the breezy to strong trades will
persist for several days. Additionally, AIRMET Sierra has been
issued early this morning for mountain obscuration along north
through east sections of Maui. This AIRMET may need to be
expanded to include windward portions of other islands as well
later this morning.

&&

.MARINE...

Strong high pressure far north of the state will continue to
produce rough conditions into next week. Trade winds are expected
to gradually strengthen through Sunday, where we could see gales
over the windier waters and channels around Maui County. A Small
Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended for all coastal water due
to a combination of winds and seas through Sunday night. A Gale
Watch may be needed for the Alenuihaha Channel on Sunday and
possibly the Pailolo Channel this afternoon.

The current small medium period northwest swell will continue to
hold this morning before a gradual decrease expected through
Sunday. Minimal energy is expected from the northwest during the
first half of next week, although select exposures should see some
wind swell.

Surf along east facing shores will continue to build over all
waters into this weekend and early next week due to the
persistent strong trades locally and upstream of the islands. Surf
heights look to stay just below High Surf Advisory today but may
reach criteria Sunday.

Surf along south shores remains small with some background trade
wind swell for select exposures through the forecast period.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for all Hawaiian
waters-

&&

$$


DISCUSSION...Walsh
AVIATION...Vaughan
MARINE...Shigesato