Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 07/17/2026 11:42:00 PM UTC

                        
786
FXHW60 PHFO 171342
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
342 AM HST Fri Jul 17 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Locally breezy trade winds will remain through the weekend, easing
a bit early next week. Typical trade wind showers will favor
windward and mauka areas.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
No significant changes to the forecast this morning.

High pressure remains anchored far northeast of the islands. The
pressure gradient over the islands supports the light to moderate
trade wind flow we have been experiencing recently. The high is
expected to weaken and lift to the north, and the weaken. The
resultant pressure gradient over the islands should weaken,
leading winds easing a bit more to start the next week. As a new
high builds north of the islands by midweek, the pressure gradient
over the islands will tighten, leading to an uptick in the trades.
High pressure aloft will maintain a stable atmosphere, limiting
clouds and showers, mostly to the windward and mauka areas.


&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate trades will continue through the weekend. Passing clouds
and showers will be focused over the typical windward and mauka
locations. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with some MVFR
conditions in clouds and showers.

No AIRMETs in effect this morning, and none expected.


&&

.MARINE...

As high pressure far north of the islands edges slightly south and
east through this weekend and interacts with a couple of lows and
troughs passing to the south and southwest of Hawaii, trades will
remain fresh to strong. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect
for the windier channels and waters around Maui County and the Big
Island through Saturday afternoon. Winds will begin to diminish
again late this weekend as high pressure to the north starts to
weaken, which should eliminate the need for a SCA Sunday into
early next week.

A small, medium-period west-northwest swell will gradually fade today
into the weekend, causing surf along north-facing shores to drop to
flat/tiny by the weekend.

Meanwhile, south-facing shores remain slightly below average as old
southwest and west-northwest swells fade. However, a fresh south-
southwest swell building today will briefly boost surf back to near
average through early Saturday. This will maintain small surf along
west-facing shores as well. A larger, moderate south swell is
expected to build Sunday through early next week, bringing potentially
above-average (though sub-advisory) waves to south shores.

On east-facing shores, strengthening trade winds will make surf
slightly bigger and choppy this weekend, with a potential small-to-
moderate swell arriving early-to-mid next week from Tropical Storm
Elida.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...M Ballard
AVIATION...M Ballard
MARINE...Quesada