Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 06/27/2026 11:59:00 AM UTC

                        
709
FXHW60 PHFO 270159
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
359 PM HST Fri Jun 26 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Breezy trades are expected to slightly decrease on Sunday and
remain at moderate to locally breezy speeds through early next
week. Light passing showers will focus mostly over windward and
mountain areas during the night time and early morning hours.
Occasional leeward showers will be possible. Wetter trade wind
conditions are expected next week as areas of enhanced moisture
are forecast to move through the islands starting as early as
Sunday night.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Fairly typical summer time trade wind weather is expected through
the weekend with light passing showers riding in with our
moderate to breezy trade winds. As the high far north of the state
drifts further northeast, we should see a slight decrease of our
trade winds on Sunday. Soundings from Hilo and Lihue also show our
typical trade wind weather with the 00Z sounding showing the
trade wind inversion at roughly 6500 feet and precipitable water
values of around 1.2 inches.

By next week, models indicate a few batches of enhanced moisture
and higher dewpoint temperatures arriving, boosting shower
chances. GFS model cross section data on Monday currently shows a
plume of moisture with a depth up to 10,000 ft passing through
the islands. While the upper level dynamics remain very weak, the
enhanced moisture combined with orographic lifting should allow
for some brief periods of moderate showers over windward and
mountain areas Sunday night into Monday.

Then Tuesday into Wednesday, a plume of deeper moisture arrives
with dewpoints up into the low 70s. This would translate to more
widespread trade wind showers and more frequent leeward spillover
showers. Areas that do not see frequent showers will be hot and
muggy due to the warm dewpoint temperatures. While the upper level
dynamics does not look great either on the second plume of
moisture, there is an upper level low far west of the state that
could enhance precipitation if the upper low gets close enough to
the state. Nonetheless, with the abundant moisture expected by the
middle of next week, some brief heavy showers will be possible.
Stay tuned for updates.

&&

.AVIATION...

Moderate to breezy trades will continue through Saturday. Low
clouds and scattered showers will favor windward and mauka areas
as areas of moisture move in. Expect MVFR windward and mauka due
to low clouds, and brief MVFR conditions in showers. VFR expected
elsewhere.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscurations for windward
sections of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island.
Conditions may continue overnight due to the ongoing and upstream
showers.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate turbulence downwind of
terrain due to the breezy trade winds and will continue through
the forecast period.

&&

.MARINE...

High pressure far north of the state will gradually shift further
northeast through the weekend then remain nearly stationary
through early next week. This will allow moderate to locally
strong trades to persist through Saturday, then slightly decrease
Sunday into early next week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains
in effect for the typically windier waters around Maui and the Big
Island through Saturday afternoon. Winds will be borderline SCA
levels Sunday into early next week.

A small, medium-period south swell will gradually ease into
Saturday. Surf will fall below seasonal averages by tonight.
Another small, long-period south swell will arrive and fill in on
late Saturday, then peak on Sunday before gradually declining
early next week. This swell should boost surf heights back up to
near normal for this time of year.

Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy with a
slight decline possible early next week due to minor fluctuations of
our trades. Surf heights along north facing shores will remain tiny
through the first half of next week. A tiny bump in surf is
possible for north-facing shores on Saturday with the arrival of a
very small, medum-period west-northwest swell.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Kino
AVIATION...Parker
MARINE...Kino