Area Forecast Discussion for Hawaii

Area Forecast Discussion   Issued: 08/28/2026 11:19:00 AM UTC

                        
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FXHW60 PHFO 280119
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
319 PM HST Thu Aug 27 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through early
next week. These trades are relatively dry and stable, leading to
typical summertime windward and/or upslope mauka light showers.
Tropical Storm Lowell has formed well southeast of the state, and
is currently forecast by NHC to eventually move W to WNW. It might
approach the state between roughly Sep 4 and Sep 7, but at this
time range, uncertainty is quite large. NHC will continue to issue
forecasts every 6 hours as Lowell develops.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Satellite shows mostly sunny skies for most of the state this
afternoon, with exceptions confined to some windward and mauka
areas. Showers have been isolated and light so far, with reports
of just a few hundredths in most areas, up to a third of an inch
in parts of windward Big Island. Winds were averaging 10 to 20
mph, with gusts 30 to 35 mph in the usual orographically-favored
locations (such as Kahului, the Moloka`i airport, and near the top
of the Ko`olaus, to name a few).

A large surface high pressure system was centered near 46N 158W
this afternoon. It is forecast to remain nearly stationary through
Saturday before retrograding westward through Monday. By
Wednesday, it should move east and end up right about where it
started. This will keep trade winds going well into next week. The
lower levels of the atmosphere will stay relatively stable and
dry through at least Tuesday. Therefore, expect typical
summertime showers, mainly windward and mauka. Wind speeds are
expected to stay elevated, but below wind advisory criteria. An
increase in moisture may arrive Wednesday.

The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing forecasts for
Tropical Storm Lowell. Long-range models show Lowell may move
toward the state. General model consensus this far out shows that
if it comes toward Hawaii, it could arrive sometime between the
4th and 7th. We will of course be monitoring this closely, and NHC
will issue forecasts every 6 hours. The other storm named earlier
today, Tropical Storm Karina, is not expected to pose a direct
threat to the islands at this time. But this far out, nothing is
certain.

&&

.AVIATION...
Moderate trades expected through the period. Low cigs and SHRA
over windward and mauka slopes, focused across eastern Islands
today, likely expanding to all Islands into Friday. MVFR conds in
heavier SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod low-level turb lee of terrain
and may be needed for a few days.

&&

.MARINE...
Dominant high pressure will keep moderate to locally strong trade
winds in place through the middle of next week. A Small Craft
Advisory for the typically windier waters around Maui County and
the Big Island will continue through tomorrow and will likely need
to be extended for the next several days.

Surf along south facing shores will hold just below advisory
levels through tomorrow as a small, long period south southwest
swell continues. The swell will gradually fade through the
weekend. Then another similar sized south swell is expected by the
middle to the later half of next week.

Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy due to
persistent trade wind swell. A small, medium period east swell
from Tropical Storm Iselle may fill in Friday, peak Saturday
before slowly fading into early next week. Additional medium
period east swell is possible next week, resulting from Tropical
Storms Karina and Lowell. This swell will depend on their track
and intensity.

Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny to flat.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relatively dry air and moderate to locally breezy trade winds
will continue to bring moderate fire weather concerns through
early next week. Conditions may get close to criteria if the
approaching airmass proves to be drier than forecast, especially
Friday and Monday.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Alenuihaha
Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-
Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/FIRE WEATHER...Parker
AVIATION...Munroe
MARINE...Tsamous