Potential Weather Impacts from Developing Tropical Disturbance

The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor a low pressure center located over 1,000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. While a tropical cyclone has not yet formed, environmental conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or storm is expected to form on Wednesday.

The disturbance is expected to move generally northwestward across the Central Pacific and toward the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands later this week and into the weekend.

Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the eventual track, intensity, and proximity to the Hawaiian Islands. These details will have a significant influence on the magnitude and location of any impacts. However, given the potential for development and the expected movement of the system, several hazards could affect land and marine zones across the state.

FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns increase on Friday. Winds will begin to strengthen and a dry and stable air mass with low relative humidity in advance of the storm will likely lead to high wildfire potential.

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...
Winds could strengthen further on Saturday, though the timing, direction, and magnitude of the strongest winds remain highly dependent on the eventual track and intensity of the system. Even if the center of the system remains away from the islands, the north semicircle of the storm will likely produce damaging winds.

LARGE AND ROUGH SURF...
The developing system is expected to generate a large easterly swell as it moves northwestward across the Central Pacific. Surf may build along east-facing shores from east to west as the system approaches, with Warning-level surf of 15 feet or larger possible into the weekend.

HEAVY RAINFALL...
This system could bring periods of heavy rainfall, particularly across east and southeast-facing slopes. Orographic enhancement could result in locally higher rainfall totals where moist tropical flow interacts with island terrain. If heavier rainfall persists over the same locations, flash flooding and rapidly rising streams are possible.

PREPARE NOW...
Residents and visitors should continue to monitor the latest forecasts during the coming days and use this time to review hurricane preparedness plans and supplies. Do not focus on any single model forecast or projected track while the system remains in its early stages of development.

Additional information will be provided as forecast confidence increases.