Heavy Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorm Threats for the Plains and Southeast

A frontal boundary extending from the western High Plains to the Southeast will focus additional showers and thunderstorms this weekend. Some of these storms may become severe, alongside frequent lightning, and isolated instances of flash flooding. Meanwhile dry conditions will continue for the Great Basin where fire weather concerns linger. For the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, seasonable weather. Read More >

Severe Thunderstorm (damaging winds & lightning)

Biggest Takeaway:
While not routine, these warnings are something that will occur several times most years. Be inside a sturdy structure. Severe/Damaging Thunderstorms cause most of the instances of wind damage in our region. Wind damage from a severe thunderstorm is 10x more likely than a tornado.

Warning/Trigger for Plan:
NWS Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Advance Notice/Time to Activate & Accomplish Your Planned Response:
Plan on 10-15 minutes advance warning before onset (allow there may be no advance notice, and it may be as much as 60 minutes).

Frequency:
Average is ~10/year at various times of day & night

How accurate are warnings?
If there is a Severe Thunderstorm Warning, it is nearly certain that there will be targeted wind damage in the warning area (and nearby to you). Often though, the damaging winds will not affect your specific location, and will only be "nearby" within a few miles. Most of the time however, you will at least get lightning and very heavy rain. How much risk can you tolerate from a damaging wind gust occurring on your location vs. nearby? The safest course of action is to shelter during the typical 15-45 minutes of the warning.

How do you balance this uncertainty of a direct hit of damaging winds with the potentially deadly consequences if it does hit you?
Damaging winds may be just enough to rip off large limbs (>50mph), or enough to snap down large trees and cause structural damage (>80 mph) - warnings the NWS issues will often include expected wind speed & damage.
Note that large branches and trees are at risk for coming down during a severe thunderstorm. Is that a threat in your location? How do you keep people out of harm’s way from falling trees?
Safest situation:
- In a sturdy, enclosed structure – not a mobile home
  - Away from windows
  - Be as low as possible
    - Winds increase with height
    - If a tree falls into your structure, the upper levels will be most damaged
  - Put as much structure between you and the outside as possible
    - Homes: Typically the lowest level, interior room.
    - Buildings: Typically interior hallways or concrete staircases.
Safety References:
- Thunderstorms, Tornadoes, Lightning...Nature's Most Violent Storms