A multi-day thunderstorm and heavy rain event will impact the south-central U.S. this Memorial Day weekend. Severe thunderstorms may produce large hail, severe gusts, and a possible tornado or two across portions of the central and southern Plains through Monday. The threat for heavy to excessive rainfall and possible flash flooding will return to the south-central U.S., especially in the Ozarks. Read More >
Biggest takeaway:
Whatever plan you base off a tornado warning, that NWS tornado warning needs to be received instantly, & your plan triggered and accomplished rapidly (within a few minutes) to be of value.
Warning/Trigger for Plan:
NWS Tornado Warning
Advance Notice/Time to Activate & Accomplish Your Planned Response:
Plan on 5-10 minutes of advance warning.
Allow options that there may be little/no advance warning, and it may be as much as 30 mins.
Frequency:
Average is 0-2/year for any one location in this region.
How Accurate Warnings?
If a tornado occurs, it is highly likely that it was preceded by at least a few minutes by a NWS Tornado Warning. That said, with the current state of the science, more than half of NWS Tornado Warnings are false alarms. Furthermore, even when a tornado does occur within a warning area, it is less likely to hit your specific location.