National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
How Dry Is It?
Abnormally Dry Conditions
At times, below normal precipitation will lead to a lack of ground water and worsening drought conditions in Arkansas. Check out the latest conditions below.
 
Monitoring Drought in Arkansas
 
Drought Status
 
There were moderate to severe drought (D1/D2) conditions in parts of southern, central, and eastern Arkansas as well as the far northwest on 09/10/2024.

A moderate to severe drought (D1/D2) was ongoing in parts of southern, central, and eastern Arkansas as well as the far northwest heading into mid-September. Next Page Update: October 1, 2024

 
Drought Conditions (Percent Area)
Category Coverage
None 14.38%
D0-D4 85.62%
D1-D4 38.50%
D2-D4 3.66%
D3-D4 0%
D4 0%
In the picture: There were moderate to severe drought (D1/D2) conditions in parts of southern, central, and eastern Arkansas as well as the far northwest on 09/10/2024.
 
 
Drought conditions as of 09/10/2024.
In the picture: Drought conditions as of 09/10/2024.
 

Across the country, the worst drought conditions (at least D3) were in the Rockies, Plains, mid-South (not Arkansas yet), Ohio Valley, and the central Appalachians.

 

Hurricane Francine was closing in on the Louisiana Gulf Coast on 09/11/2024. The system briefly became a category two storm (maximum sustained wind around 100 mph) before making landfall during the late afternoon. The remnants of Francine eventually unleashed areas of heavy rain in parts of Arkansas (in the southwest and east) as well as wind gusts up to 50 mph (in the east).
In the picture: Hurricane Francine was closing in on the Louisiana Gulf Coast on 09/11/2024. The system briefly became a category two storm (maximum sustained wind around 100 mph) before making landfall during the late afternoon. The remnants of Francine eventually unleashed areas of heavy rain in parts of Arkansas (in the southwest and east) as well as wind gusts up to 50 mph (in the east).
 

Here at home in September (through the 13th), the remnants of Hurricane Francine dumped significant rainfall (locally more than four inches) and brought drought relief to southwest and eastern sections of the state. In the forty eight hour period ending at 700 am CDT on the 13th, 6.20 inches of rain was measured near Harrisburg (Poinsett County), with 5.44 inches at Millwood Dam (Little River County), 4.17 inches at Jonesboro (Craighead County), and 4.13 inches at West Memphis (Crittenden County). Meanwhile, the northwest missed out on the deluge. Less than a half inch of liquid was tallied for the month so far at Fayetteville (Washington County), Fort Smith (Sebastian County), and Harrison (Boone County).

 

Precipitation in September, 2024 (Through the 13th)
Site Amount Normal +/- % of Normal
Fayetteville (NW AR) 0.04 1.71 -1.67 2%
Harrison (NC AR) 0.26 1.76 -1.50 15%
Jonesboro (NE AR) 5.26 1.51 +3.75 348%
Fort Smith (WC AR) 0.11 1.80 -1.69 6%
Little Rock (C AR) 1.07 1.35 -0.28 79%
West Memphis (EC AR) 5.07 1.35 +3.72 376%
Texarkana (SW AR) 2.73 1.55 +1.18 176%
El Dorado (SC AR) 1.09 1.46 -0.37 75%
Pine Bluff (SE AR) 2.07 1.38 +0.69 150%

 

Precipitation across Arkansas in August, 2024.
In the picture: Precipitation across Arkansas in August, 2024.
 

In August, downpours were the most prevalent in the Ozark and Ouachita Mountains, and the Arkansas River Valley west of Russellville (Pope County). It was a very wet month at Fayetteville (Washington County) and Fort Smith (Sebastian County). Elsewhere, many locations had less than two inches of precipitation, with under an inch at El Dorado (Union County), Jonesboro (Craighead County), and Texarkana (Miller County).

 

Precipitation in August, 2024
Site Amount Normal +/- % of Normal
Fayetteville (NW AR) 5.99 3.17 +2.82 189%
Harrison (NC AR) 2.21 3.42 -1.21 65%
Jonesboro (NE AR) 0.90 3.41 -2.51 26%
Fort Smith (WC AR) 7.20 3.60 +3.60 200%
Little Rock (C AR) 1.71 3.16 -1.45 54%
West Memphis (EC AR) 1.15 2.37 -1.22 49%
Texarkana (SW AR) 0.43 2.98 -2.55 14%
El Dorado (SC AR) 0.16 3.40 -3.24 5%
Pine Bluff (SE AR) 1.77 3.38 -1.61 52%

 

Across the country during the summer of 2024, some of the largest soil moisture declines (in millimeters) were from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to the Gulf Coast (including southern and eastern Arkansas).
In the picture: Across the country during the summer of 2024, some of the largest soil moisture declines (in millimeters) were from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys to the Gulf Coast (including southern and eastern Arkansas).
 

In Arkansas this summer (June through August), soil moisture declined the most across the south/east. Ground water was more appreciable in the north/west due to a wet July. Heavy to excessive rain was provided by the remnants of Hurricane Beryl on the 8th/9th. On the 16th/17th, there were cloudbursts from Yellville (Marion County) and Marshall (Searcy County) to Mountain View (Stone County), Heber Springs (Cleburne County), Conway (Faulkner County), and Morrilton (Conway County).

In 2024 (through September 13th), wet to very wet conditions were found across the central and southern counties, and it was somewhat dry in the north and east. Precipitation was more than eight inches above average at El Dorado (Union County), Little Rock (Pulaski County), and Texarkana (Miller County), and two to four inches subpar at Fayetteville (Washington County), Harrison (Boone County), and West Memphis (Crittenden County).

 

Precipitation in 2024 (Through September 13th)
Site Amount Normal +/- % of Normal
Fayetteville (NW AR) 30.93 33.18 -2.25 93%
Harrison (NC AR) 27.91 31.49 -3.58 89%
Jonesboro (NE AR) 35.63 34.06 +1.57 105%
Fort Smith (WC AR) 38.39 33.35 +5.04 115%
Little Rock (C AR) 46.25 34.49 +11.76 134%
West Memphis (EC AR) 31.93 35.23 -3.30 91%
Texarkana (SW AR) 42.40 33.72 +8.68 126%
El Dorado (SC AR) 47.14 36.33 +10.81 130%
Pine Bluff (SE AR) 36.64 35.25 +1.39 104%

 

Drought outlook through November, 2024.
Drought Outlook  |  NMME Precipitation Outlook
In the pictures: Drought and NMME (North American Multi-Model Ensemble) precipitation outlook through November, 2024.
 

Looking ahead, La Niña (cooler than normal water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean) is likely to emerge in the fall. As La Niña becomes dominant, we may be faced with dryness and a worsening drought (especially in portions of southern/western Arkansas) depending on how much precipitation is provided by the tropics. The forecast calls for a more active than usual hurricane season. We will monitor the situation closely.

 

Precipitation Trends
 
Departure from Normal Precipitation for Latest Month (click "Precipitation Estimate" for rainfall legend)
Departure from Normal Precipitation for Year (click "Precipitation Estimate" for rainfall legend)

 

Streamflow and Soil Moisture
 
Most recent streamflow (values in the 25th to 75th percentile are normal)
Most recent soil moisture (values between 30 and 70 percent are normal)

 

Fire Danger

 

The Forecast