National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
How Dry Is It?
Abnormally Dry Conditions
At times, below normal precipitation will lead to a lack of ground water and worsening drought conditions in Arkansas. Check out the latest conditions below.
 
Monitoring Drought in Arkansas
 
Drought Status
 
There were moderate drought (D1) conditions in far eastern Arkansas on 03/12/2024.

Moderate drought (D1) conditions existed in far eastern Arkansas in mid-March. Next Page Update: April 1, 2024

 
Drought Conditions (Percent Area)
Category Coverage
None 56.37%
D0-D4 43.63%
D1-D4 2.58%
D2-D4 0%
D3-D4 0%
D4 0%
In the picture: There were moderate drought (D1) conditions in far eastern Arkansas on 03/12/2024.
 
 
Drought conditions as of 03/12/2024.
In the picture: Drought conditions as of 03/12/2024.
 

Across the country, the worst drought conditions (at least D3) were in the southern Rockies and southern Plains, and portions of the upper Midwest and northern Rockies.

Here at home in March (through the 17th), wet to very wet conditions were noted across much of Arkansas. There was a surplus of rain by more than two inches in places, including El Dorado (Union County) and Little Rock (Pulaski County). It was drier than usual (mostly by less than an inch) in the northern one to two rows of counties.

 

Precipitation in March, 2024 (Through the 17th)
Site Amount Normal +/- % of Normal
Fayetteville (NW AR) 1.44 2.08 -0.64 69%
Harrison (NC AR) 1.48 2.03 -0.55 73%
Jonesboro (NE AR) 2.00 2.63 -0.63 76%
Fort Smith (WC AR) 2.85 2.06 +0.79 138%
Little Rock (C AR) 5.31 2.76 +2.55 192%
Texarkana (SW AR) 3.38 2.59 +0.79 131%
El Dorado (SC AR) 8.60 2.84 +5.76 303%
Pine Bluff (SE AR) 3.38 2.95 +0.43 115%

 

Precipitation across Arkansas in February, 2024.
In the picture: Precipitation across Arkansas in February, 2024.
 

In February, after a somewhat wet start to the month, not much fell from the sky during the last two weeks. Overall, precipitation at many sites was one to two inches below average. This resulted in a moderate to high wildfire danger, and burn bans posted in almost 30 (of 75) counties by the 28th.

 

Precipitation in February, 2024
Site Amount Normal +/- % of Normal
Fayetteville (NW AR) 1.17 2.56 -1.39 46%
Harrison (NC AR) 1.61 2.42 -0.81 67%
Jonesboro (NE AR) 2.71 3.79 -1.08 72%
Fort Smith (WC AR) 1.42 2.69 -1.27 53%
Little Rock (C AR) 3.10 3.97 -0.87 78%
West Memphis (EC AR) 2.57 4.31 -1.74 60%
Texarkana (SW AR) 2.46 4.28 -1.82 57%
El Dorado (SC AR) 3.39 4.47 -1.08 76%
Pine Bluff (SE AR) 3.34 4.27 -0.93 78%

 

January was much wetter than normal (by two to more than four inches in the majority of the state). In fact, it was the the 10th wettest January on record (since 1895). This resulted in drought relief from central into southeast Arkansas.

 

Precipitation in January, 2024
Site Amount Normal +/- % of Normal
Fayetteville (NW AR) 2.97 2.75 +0.22 108%
Harrison (NC AR) 4.92 2.67 +2.25 184%
Jonesboro (NE AR) 7.91 3.52 +4.39 225%
Fort Smith (WC AR) 3.92 2.91 +1.01 135%
Little Rock (C AR) 9.13 3.50 +5.63 261%
West Memphis (EC AR) 5.66 3.82 +1.84 148%
Texarkana (SW AR) 7.88 3.64 +4.24 216%
El Dorado (SC AR) 8.87 4.39 +4.48 202%
Pine Bluff (SE AR) 7.33 3.82 +3.51 192%

 

This is where drought was prevalent to finish 2023. From October 1st to December 31st (92 days), rainfall deficits went from two to five inches at Little Rock (Pulaski County) and Pine Bluff (Jefferson County) to eight to twelve inches toward Monticello (Drew County).

 

Precipitation From October 1 to December 31, 2023
Site Amount Normal +/- % of Normal
Little Rock (C AR) 10.67 14.27 -3.60 75%
Pine Bluff (SE AR) 9.25 13.85 -4.60 67%
Monticello (SE AR) 5.56 14.38 -8.82 39%

 

Drought outlook through May, 2024.
In the picture: Drought outlook through May, 2024.
 

Looking ahead, El Niño (warmer than normal water temperatures near the equator in the Pacific Ocean) will stick around through the first half of 2024. Long range models are showing a wet pattern evolving in the coming weeks (heading deeper into spring). The most appreciable rain is expected in eastern Arkansas, and this should end our existing drought. The west may not get as much rain, and this is where drought is favored if it redevelops. We will monitor the situation closely.

 

Precipitation Statistics (2019-2023)
Site 2023 +/- 2022 +/- 2021 +/- 2020 +/- 2019 +/- Total +/-
Fayetteville (NW AR) 44.89 -2.07 41.76 -5.20 42.60 -4.36 49.86 +1.35 65.26 +16.75 +6.47
Harrison (NC AR) 44.59 +0.09 43.23 -1.27 46.81 +2.31 53.60 +9.46 56.98 +12.84 +23.43
Jonesboro (NE AR) 48.43 -0.08 47.27 -1.24 41.36 -7.15 56.25 +8.15 65.89 +17.79 +17.47
Fort Smith (WC AR) 45.29 -2.05 56.01 +8.67 50.60 +3.26 61.62 +16.16 67.50 +22.04 +48.08
Little Rock (C AR) 56.86 +6.44 48.29 -2.13 43.71 -6.71 60.04 +10.29 60.46 +10.71 +18.60
West Memphis (EC AR) 46.99 -3.41 53.17 +2.77 44.66 -5.74 53.89 +1.66 73.86 +20.63 +15.91
Texarkana (SW AR) 56.66 +7.79 45.38 -3.49 47.03 -1.84 68.81 +19.16 51.53 +1.88 +23.50
El Dorado (SC AR) 57.11 +4.99 50.41 -1.71 49.27 -2.85 66.18 +13.26 60.64 +7.72 +21.41
Pine Bluff (SE AR) 48.39 -2.42 46.87 -3.94 44.94 -5.87 63.04 +11.89 63.96 +12.81 +12.47

 

Looking back at recorded history, drought is no stranger to Arkansas. The good news is that periods of drought are generally short-lived. That was the case in 2011 when a deluge unfolded from mid-November to mid-December.

 

Thirty day rainfall through 600 am CST on 12/11/2011. Twelve to more than eighteen inches of rain was measured from Mena (Polk County) to Mount Ida (Montgomery County), Russellville (Pope County), Little Rock (Pulaski County), Jonesboro (Craighead County) and West Memphis (Crittenden County).
In the picture: Thirty day rainfall through 600 am CST on 12/11/2011.

 

Hurricane Isaac brought much needed rain to drought stricken areas of the south and east in late August, 2012. Pine Bluff (Jefferson County) had 8.39 inches in the forty eight hour period ending at 700 am CDT on September 1st.

Hurricane Isaac was just off the coast of Louisiana at 425 pm CDT on 08/28/2012.
In the picture: Hurricane Isaac was just off the coast of Louisiana at 425 pm CDT on 08/28/2012.

 

In September, 2013, areas from Little Rock (Pulaski County) southward got two to four inches of rain, with locally over six inches on the 19th/20th. Some of these amounts exceeded what would normally be expected during the entire month. This busted a short term extreme (D3) drought that peaked just a few days prior to the rain.

The southern half of Arkansas dealt with a moderate to extreme drought (D2 to D4) in October, 2015. Very dry air and heat in the middle of the month made conditions worse. On the 15th, Little Rock experienced the hottest October day on record when the thermometer showed 98 degrees. Fast forward to the wettest November in recorded state history, and the drought was erased.

 

Precipitation Trends

 

Streamflow and Soil Moisture
 
Most recent streamflow (values in the 25th to 75th percentile are normal)
Most recent soil moisture (values between 30 and 70 percent are normal)

 

Fire Danger

 

The Forecast