NWS Little Rock, AR - Drought in Arkansas

Across the country, moderate to exceptional drought (D1 to D4) conditions continued from the western United States into the northern Plains, upper Midwest, Great Lakes, and New England. There were also spots of moderate drought (D1) from the mid-Atlantic states to Florida.

Long term drought and a lack of rain in the western United States contributed to extreme heat, low water levels, and wildfires in June.

On the 15th, the temperature at Billings, MT soared to 108 degrees, which tied the all-time high in the city. The same thing happened at Sheridan, WY and Salt Lake City, UT, with the mercury topping out at 107 degrees. Wildfires were ongoing in the west as of the 18th. This included a large 165,000 acre Telegraph Fire east of Phoenix, AZ, and close to a 30,000 acre Pinnacle Fire northeast of Tucson, AZ. Lake Mead was experiencing the lowest water levels since the 1930s (about a third of its full capacity). Sitting just east of Las Vegas, NV along the Colorado River, the lake supplies water to 25,000,000 people.

All-time highs were established at Portland, OR and Seattle, WA on the 28th, with thermometers showing 116 degrees and 108 degrees respectively. Highways buckled and streetcar cables melted. The majority of homes in this part of the world are not equipped with air conditioners, so many folks went to cooling centers for relief.

After a very wet May from southwest to central Arkansas, the southeast got torrential downpours in early June. Flooding was extensive in the southeast, with many acres of farmland under water.

An economist with the Arkansas Agriculture Experiment Station estimated that record rainfall and widespread flooding in southeast Arkansas on June 8th/9th cost farmers at least $200 million in losses ($70 million each in soybeans and rice, and $60 million in corn). There are more details here.

Rohwer (Desha County) had 19.22 inches of rain on the 8th/9th, the second highest two day total in Arkansas recorded history. Stuttgart (Arkansas County) received 7.50 inches of rain on the 9th, which was the most liquid in one day at the site. The last three weeks of the month were not so wet. In fact, from the 10th through the 30th, less than a tenth of an inch of precipitation was measured across the central third of the state including Hot Springs (Garland County), Little Rock (Pulaski County), and West Memphis (Crittenden County). By the end of June, more sites than not had below average rainfall..

For the year (2021) so far (through June), while there was some dryness in places, it was wetter than usual overall. This was especially true in central and southern sections of the state where rainfall was four to more than eight inches above average at multiple locations.

Soil moisture was generally inflated heading into early July. This is a variable that is monitored for signs of drought. While ground water levels fluctuated in the last year across Arkansas (with a minimum in late 2020/early 2021), they never got low enough to worry much about drought development.

In fact, drought has not been a factor since 2018. In each of the last three years, rainfall surpluses were in the double digits. That was certainly the case in 2020, mainly in central and southern Arkansas.

As far as the forecast, it does not appear that recent dryness will be a persistent issue. While ridges of high pressure will crank up the heat and shut off downpours at times this summer, the ridges will wobble away often enough to allow storm systems/fronts to bring decent rain chances.

Models are indicating at or above average precipitation from Texas to the southeast states (including Arkansas) from July through September. An active tropical season certainly boosts the odds of a wet scenario.

As a heads up, data is showing a drier picture from the late summer into the fall. There are signs this pattern could hold into the winter. The situation will be monitored closely.

Looking back at recorded history, drought is no stranger to Arkansas. The good news is that periods of drought are generally short-lived. That was the case in 2011 when a deluge unfolded from mid-November to mid-December.

Hurricane Isaac brought much needed rain to drought stricken areas of the south and east in late August, 2012. Pine Bluff (Jefferson County) had 8.39 inches in the forty eight hour period ending at 700 am CDT on September 1st.

In September, 2013, areas from Little Rock (Pulaski County) southward got two to four inches of rain, with locally over six inches on the 19th/20th. Some of these amounts exceeded what would normally be expected during the entire month. This busted a short term extreme (D3) drought that peaked just a few days prior to the rain.

The southern half of Arkansas dealt with a moderate to extreme drought (D2 to D4) in October, 2015. Very dry air and heat in the middle of the month made conditions worse. On the 15th, Little Rock experienced the hottest October day on record when the thermometer showed 98 degrees. Fast forward to the wettest November in recorded state history, and the drought was erased.