NWS Little Rock, AR - Text Viewer

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HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
430 PM CST THU MAR 05 2020

...SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR MUCH OF ARKANSAS...

The National Weather Service Forecast Office in Little Rock has a
Hydrologic Service Area which is wholly located within the state of
Arkansas. It encompasses an area which includes the White River from
Bull Shoals Dam downstream and the Ouachita River and tributaries
from the headwaters to the upper boundary of the Felsenthal National
Wildlife Refuge. Along with the main stem of these rivers, it also
includes tributaries with forecast locations on the Cache, Black,
Spring, Saline, Petit Jean, Fourche LaFave, Little Missouri,
Buffalo, Little Red, and Eleven Point Rivers.

EXISTING CONDITIONS...

Rainfall - Over much of the winter, well above normal precipitation
has occurred over the White, Lower Arkansas, and Upper Ouachita
River Basins. The lower Mississippi, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys have
had 20 to 40 inches of rainfall over the past 3 months with 10 to 20
inches occurring over the past month.

Snowpack - The upper Mississippi Valley has had significant snow
this year. Snow depths of 10 to 20 inches is covering portions of
Minnesota, Wisconsin, and north Iowa. Snow water equivalents range
from 2 to 6 inches over this area. The remainder of the area is
relatively snow free, including Arkansas.

Soil Moisture - Soil moisture and streamflow conditions are
significantly above normal over the White, Lower Arkansas, and Upper
Ouachita River Basins due to recent rainfall.

River Flows and Reservoirs - Storage capacity at the Corps of
Engineer Projects in the White River basin is 1 to 7 feet above
normal pool. Corps of Engineers projects in southwestern Arkansas
all have much of their flood control capacity available at this
time.

White River Basin...

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring
rainfall patterns; an ABOVE AVERAGE flood potential is expected over
the lower White and Black Basins. Percent of Average Flood Control
storage for the Black/White Basin Reservoirs are given below.

                                             3/5
                      Clearwater Res. MO    100%
      Combined Black/White Reservoirs AR     87%

Recent rainfall has allowed streamflows to rise to above seasonal
levels. Soil moisture conditions are above normal and minor flooding
continues on the lower Black and lower White Rivers. Observed daily
streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

                                             3/5
Black River              Black Rock  AR     151%
White River                 Newport  AR     191%

ARKANSAS RIVER BASIN...

The potential for flood conditions on the mainstem Arkansas River
will be near normal. Flooding in western Arkansas usually occurs in
response to specific heavy precipitation events. Also, the Arkansas
River may flood in response to upstream conditions. The wet
antecedent soil conditions warrant the above normal potential of
flooding.

Precipitation totals during the last 90 days for western Arkansas
have been above average along the Oklahoma border. Precipitation has
been above normal near Little Rock and southeastward, as well.

Soil moisture conditions in western Arkansas are above normal. The
most significant anomalies are across Northwest Arkansas.

Corps of Engineers projects in southwestern Arkansas all have much
of their flood control capacity available at this time. Streamflows
in western Arkansas are all near normal.

OUACHITA RIVER BASIN...

Streamflows are near to above normal and soil moisture content are
above seasonal averages. Minor flooding is occurring now in Arkansas
and Louisiana. Over the next 7 days, one to three inches of rainfall
is forecast over the area and this may cause renewed minor flooding
on smaller tributaries going into the Ouachita River. Observed daily
streamflows as a percent of median are given below.

                                             3/5
Ouachita River                 Camden AR     96%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring
rainfall patterns; an ABOVE AVERAGE flood potential is expected over
the Ouachita and Black River Basins.

Percent of available reservoir flood control storage is given below.

                                             3/5
                        Lake Ouachita AR    100%
                          DeGray Res. AR    100%


...EXTENDED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

The 8-14 DAY Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center
indicates chances of above normal precipitation and above normal
temperatures.

The 30-DAY Outlook indicates chances of above normal temperatures
and above normal precipitation.

The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) Seasonal Outlook (MAR-APR-MAY)
indicates increased chances (33-40%) of above median precipitation.

The U.S. Drought Monitor of March 3, 2020 indicates no drought in
Arkansas. CPC`s Seasonal Drought Outlook of February 20, 2020
indicates Arkansas should remain drought-free during the next three
months.

CONCLUSION...

Overall, Arkansas is expected to have a near average flood potential
on the Arkansas River and its tributaries. An above average flood
potential is expected in the White and Upper Ouachita River Basin
due to antecedent conditions heading into Spring.

The Spring Flood Potential Outlook is a routine product. Should
excessive rainfall become part of the forecast at any time frame of
the year, a river flood warnings will be issued with event specific
information.

For the latest river stage information, forecast, and warnings
please visit our website at:

http://www.weather.gov/lzk

River stage and forecast data can be obtained by selecting the
rivers and lakes AHPS link on the front page.

$$

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