...Todays Topic for Severe Weather Awareness Week is Storm
Prediction Center Outlook Changes...
The National Weather Service, in cooperation with the Arkansas
Division of Emergency Management, has proclaimed the week of
March 1st through the 7th as Severe Weather Awareness Week
in Arkansas.
A different topic will be discussed each day, and the topic
today is Storm Prediction Center Outlook Changes.
The Storm Prediction Center will implement changes to the
severe weather probabilities in the Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3
Convective Outlooks to better reflect the potential for a range
of severe storm intensities based on storm environment and
convective mode.
The 10% unconditional significant severe probability ("hatched area")
for EF2 or greater tornadoes, 2-inch or larger hail, and 65 knot winds
or higher will no longer be constrained to 10% or greater
probabilities, and will be expressed in three Conditional Intensity
Groups (CIG1, CIG2, and CIG3).
For tornadoes, the groups have been defined as probabilities relative
to climatology, with CIG1 implying above climatology for EF2 or greater,
CIG2 implying twice the climatological probabilities and an increased
potential for EF3 or greater tornadoes, and CIG3 implying the potential
for an historic outbreak and increased probabilities for EF4 or
greater tornadoes.
For severe wind, CIG1 likewise infers a greater-than-climatology
potential for 65-knot thunderstorm gusts or greater, CIG2 implies
increased potential for 74-knot or greater gusts, and CIG3 denoting
increased likelihood of a high-end derecho.
Similarly for severe hail, the higher conditional intensity groups
will imply greater potential for 2-inch (CIG1) and 3.5-inch (CIG2)
hail (there is no CIG3 for hail).
In summary, the three Conditional Intensity Groups will provide
additional granularity regarding the range of severe storm intensities
in the Day 1 through Day 3 time frame, and provide important
information in support of forecast and IDSS/partner decision making.
&&
For a list of all the tornadoes and other significant weather events
that occurred in 2025...
https://www.weather.gov/media/lzk/StormsOf2025.pdf
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