SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
PLEASANT HILL, MO
March 11, 2026
NARRATIVE PART 1 OF 1
ATTN WFO'S SERVED BY MBRFC.
This Spring Flood Outlook is not for public release until
Thursday, 12 March 2026.
This Spring Outlook is for the Missouri River drainage which
includes rivers in Montana, Wyoming, Colorado, North and South
Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, and Missouri.
SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
Overall Flood Risk and Conditions ...
Flood risk this spring across the Missouri River Basin is generally
below normal when compared to historical likelihood of flooding. A
decreased flood risk is predominant across the eastern portion of
the basin while flood risk is near to below normal across the
western portion of the basin.
To provide context:
- A normal flood risk means that locations that typically
experience springtime flooding are likely to flood again this year.
However, this does not guarantee that flooding will occur.
- For locations that do not typically flood, a normal risk
indicates that flooding is again not expected.
- A decreased flood risk does not necessarily mean flooding will
not occur, nor does an increased flood risk guarantee that flooding
will happen.
Since the start of the water year on October 1st, precipitation has
been above normal across Montana, North Dakota, and northern Wyoming
falling within the top 25% of the climatological record going back
roughly 135 years. Elsewhere, precipitation has been near to below
normal, with the driest conditions centered over Nebraska. However,
since January 1st, and especially over the last couple of weeks,
precipitation has been below normal for a majority of the basin with
the exception of eastern Kansas and western Missouri.
Temperatures since October 1 have remained above average, most
notably across the southern and western portions of the basin where
the climatological rank is in the top 5 warmest (of 134 years).
Only the northeastern portion of the basin falls outside of this
rank, but still in the top 25. While both the maximum and minimum
temperatures have been above normal this year, maximum temperatures
have had a larger departure from normal. These warmer temperatures
have limited snowpack across the basin.
Soil moisture across the basin made a significant improvement in the
spring and summer of 2025, but has since deteriorated, especially in
the lower basin. The most notable area of saturated soils remains
around the North Dakota / South Dakota / Montana border. With
significant rain this March across the southeastern portion of the
basin, soil moisture has increased in eastern Kansas and across
Missouri. This rainfall was significant enough to add several
locations to the spring flood outlook for this issuance.
At this time last year, 62% of the Missouri River Basin was
experiencing some level of drought. By the end of 2025, that aerial
coverage had decreased to 21% of the basin. Since the beginning of
2026 though, conditions have continued to deteriorate; with 57% of
the basin now being categorized as some level of drought. For all
intents and purposes the basin is entering into its sixth
consecutive year of drought.
Recent Flooding
Aside from intermittent ice jam flooding and swelling of some small
streams and tributaries due to snowmelt, flooding has been minimal
this winter. Minor flooding occurred mid-February in east-central
Kansas within the Marias Des Cynges River basin. Additionally, as
March began, heavy precipitation across eastern Kansas and
Missouri caused minor flooding in the Osage and Marias Des Cynges
river basins as well as tributaries to the Missouri River below
Kansas City.
Mountain & Plains Snowpack
Plains snowpack has been largely absent this season. While the basin
has experienced several rounds of snow across the plains, the
snowpack continues to build and melt relatively quickly. The Missouri
Basin is approximately 80% of the way through the normal peak snow
water equivalent accumulating period for mountain snow. The
accumulation of snowpack across the mountainous west has been below
average. This is mostly due to precipitation that would normally fall
as snow, falling as rain this winter due to the warmer than average
temperatures.
Soil temperatures have begun to increase over the past few weeks.
Frost depths that had exceeded 1-2 feet across the northern basin,
are beginning to thaw. If the ground continues to thaw in the coming
weeks, flood potential due to frozen ground will decrease.
Water Supply ...
Water supply forecasts produced by the National Weather Service and
issued in early March, project lower than average April-September
runoff volumes for all of the mountainous west. Volume forecasts
vary across the mountain west. While some locations along the
Montana / Wyoming border remain near normal, a stronger and more
consistent signal toward below-normal runoff, ranging from 30-90%,
currently exists across Colorado and southern Wyoming as well as
northern Montana. This is primarily due to the lower than average
present accumulated snowpack. The next water supply update will be
issued in early April. More information regarding current Water
Supply Forecasts can be accessed at: https://weather.gov/mbrfc/water
Ice Jam Flooding ...
River ice impacts have posed only minor problems this winter. While
ice jam break-up flooding risk is considered low this year, wherever
river ice remains, so does the risk for ice jam flooding. Please
note, the probabilistic quantifications that form the basis for this
Spring Flood Outlook do not take into account the presence of river
ice.
Flood Potential ...
Springtime flooding in the lower one-third of the basin is typically
driven by thunderstorm activity. Flooding is projected to occur
again this spring in this region of the basin. The outlook area is
limited to eastern Kansas and areas across Missouri.
The following state by state flood potential discussions are based
on long-range probabilistic river outlooks developed this week. The
locations listed have a greater than 50% chance of exceeding minor
flood stage.
South Dakota:
- Minor flooding is expected on the James River
Kansas:
- Minor flooding is expected on the Little Osage River,
Marais Des Cygnes River, and Solomon River
- Moderate flooding is expected on Stranger Creek
Missouri:
- Moderate flooding is expected on Big Creek, Blackwater River,
Grand River, Petite Saline Creek, and Crooked River
- Minor flooding is projected along the Marmaton River,
Moniteau Creek, Grand River, Little Osage River, Big Piney River,
Moreau River, South Grand River, Roubidoux Creek, Chariton River,
Wakenda Creek, Hinkson Creek, Maries River, Sac River, Lamine River
and the mainstem Missouri River below Kansas City
Regarding the greater than 25% exceedance flood potential, many
additional locations are outlooked, mainly confined to the eastern
half of the basin. It is possible these locations will exceed flood
stage through May with several more locations also locations
possible to exceed moderate flood category as well. This flood
potential spans from eastern South Dakota south across eastern
Nebraska / Kansas and across much of Missouri. This enhancement in
flood risk would likely be driven by extreme thunderstorm activity
or prolonged heavy rainfall events.
These projections of river stages are based on current observed
states of streamflow, soil moisture, and snowpack, coupled with
future precipitation and temperature patterns and anticipated
operational hydrologic changes such as reservoir releases and canal
diversions. "Outlooks" are provided for long-range (weeks to months)
projections based on climatological patterns of precipitation and
temperature. "Forecasts" are provided for short-term (days)
projections based on forecast patterns of precipitation and
temperature. The uncertainty of these products varies from season
to season and location to location. The uncertainty of forecasts
tends to be less than the uncertainty of outlooks due to their
shorter lead time.
Users of these products are encouraged to contact their nearest
National Weather Service Forecast Office for continued updates of
meteorological conditions which can have significant impacts on
flood preparedness planning and flood fighting activities.
For additional quantitative information please refer to NWPS products
for probabilistic outlooks of potential flooding. Refer to short-term
flood forecasts and products, if any are currently issued, for
information about ongoing or near-term anticipated flooding.
This is the final scheduled Spring Flood Outlooks of the 2026 season.
Additional river information, including the monthly Water Supply
Outlook, can be accessed at the following URL:
https://weather.gov/mbrfc
Current Snow Conditions...
The conditions listed below are based on observations and model
data as of Wednesday morning, March 11th.
Montana
Pockets of snow depths of 1-2 inches are being reported across
the plains of Montana with water equivalents generally less than
0.2 inches.
Wyoming and Colorado Plains
Little to no snow is being reported across the plains of
Wyoming and Colorado.
Mountainous West
Snowpack conditions in the mountainous areas of the basin are
generally below normal. In Montana, the Jefferson, Musselshell,
Missouri headwaters, Sun, Teton, and Marais River basins are
reporting a below normal snowpack (75-90%). The St. Mary and Milk
basins are reporting a below normal snowpack (40-70%). In Wyoming,
the Tongue, Bighorn, Powder, Wind, and Yellowstone River basins are
reporting a below to near normal snowpack (55-95%). The higher
elevations of the North Platte River basin are reporting a below
normal snowpack (71%). In Colorado, the higher elevations of
the South Platte River basin are reporting a below normal
snowpack (67%).
North Dakota
A recent storm has produced snow depths from 1-2 inches across much
of North Dakota. Water equivalents are generally less than 0.2 inches.
South Dakota
The Black Hills in South Dakota have 8-10 inches of snow depth
with water equivalents in the 1-3 inch range. Snow depths of 1-2
inches are being reported across the northern portion of South Dakota.
Water equivalents are generally less than 0.2 inches. Elsewhere across
the state, little or no snow is being reported.
Iowa, Nebraska, Missouri and Kansas
Nebraska and northwest Iowa also received an additional inch of snow
overnight with water equivalents less than 0.1 inches.
No snow is being reported across Missouri and Kansas.
Current Soil Moisture Conditions
The US Drought Monitor indicates that large portions of the Missouri
River basin are experiencing below normal soil moisture
conditions. Extreme drought is indicated across portions of
northern Montana, southern Wyoming, northern Colorado, and western
Nebraska. Moderate to severe drought is occurring across central
Montana, much of Wyoming, much of Nebraska, and southern South Dakota.
Isolated frost depth reports suggest that soils across Montana,
Wyoming, South Dakota, and North Dakota have frost penetration ranging
from 0.5-2 feet. Frost depths of less than 0.5 feet are being reported
across Nebraska, Iowa, Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri.
Current River Conditions
Recent rain across eastern Kansas and much of Missouri has area
rivers running above average. Elsewhere, river levels across the basin
are currently running near to below normal.
A summary of river flow conditions at selected river stations for
March 11th follows:
Long Term Current
Mean (CFS) (CFS)
James River - Huron, SD 220 550(EST)
Big Sioux River - Akron, IA 1730 740
Platte River - Louisville, NE 10900 8100
Kansas River - Desoto, KS 5920 2150
Gasconade River - Jerome, MO 3800 8650
Missouri River - Omaha, NE 23200 16900
Missouri River - Rulo, NE 34900 26000
Missouri River - St. Joseph, MO 38800 27400
Missouri River - Waverly, MO 48900 30000
Missouri River - Hermann, MO 87000 97600
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