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2025 Great ShakeOut in WA - Oct 16, 2025

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Aviation Forecast Discussion

.AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Low pressure drops south along the Washington coastline tonight. A clash of moisture from the south into colder Canadian air from the north will result in widespread precipitation across the Inland Northwest into tonight. Widespread MVFR conditions is expected. Airports across the region will mainly see rain with this low pressure system. Cold air with increasing north to northeast winds will make an impact tonight. This may result in a little bit of snow mixing in with rain overnight including at KCOE and KGEG. Northerly winds will be gusty through north Idaho, the Okanogan Valley, and over the Columbia Basin overnight into Monday with gusts of 20-30 kts common, and as strong as 35 kts at KOMK/KSZT KCOE by the morning hours on Monday. IFR conditions with lowering ceilings may occur overnight before the boundary layer dries out into Monday morning with conditions becoming VFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in MVFR conditions overnight for much of the region (along with localized IFR conditions), except KPUW/KLWS where downslope boundary layer winds should keep conditions VFR. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard &&

Latest GEG Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF)

FTUS44 KGEG 130521
KGEG 130520Z 1306/1406 06010KT 6SM -RA SCT008 BKN015 OVC035 PROB30
      1309/1312 3SM -RASN BR
     FM131200 04013G19KT P6SM BKN022
     FM131400 04016G25KT P6SM SCT060
     FM140000 04010KT P6SM SCT100

Latest Area Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs)

FTUS44 KSFF 130521 RRB
KSFF 130520Z 1306/1406 08011KT P6SM -RA SCT012 BKN025 OVC040
     FM131000 06012G18KT P6SM BKN020
     FM131300 05012G18KT P6SM SCT060
     FM140000 04008KT P6SM SCT100

FTUS46 KOTX 130520
TAFCOE
TAF
KCOE 130520Z 1306/1406 04013G21KT 5SM -RASN BR OVC020
     FM130900 03018G27KT 6SM -RASN BR BKN027
     FM131100 03020G32KT P6SM SCT050 BKN100
     FM140000 03014KT P6SM SCT100=

FTUS54 KPUW 130521 RRC
KPUW 130520Z 1306/1406 09009KT P6SM -RA SCT029 OVC050
     FM131000 09010G17KT P6SM BKN090
     FM131600 07015G23KT P6SM BKN100
     FM140000 07009KT P6SM SCT100 BKN150

FTUS46 KOTX 130520
TAFLWS
TAF
KLWS 130520Z 1306/1406 11005KT P6SM OVC090
     FM131200 07006KT P6SM BKN090
     FM131700 05006KT P6SM BKN100=

FTUS44 KMWH 130521 RRA
KMWH 130520Z 1306/1406 04010KT 6SM -RA BR BKN018 OVC025
     FM130800 03014G26KT P6SM -RA BKN025 OVC040
     FM131300 03022G31KT P6SM SCT040 OVC060
     FM131700 03022G31KT P6SM BKN100
     FM140000 02011KT P6SM SCT100

FTUS80 KEAT 130521 RRI
KEAT 130520Z 1306/1406 02015KT P6SM -RA OVC025
     FM131000 01014KT 6SM -RA BR OVC020
     FM131600 33009KT P6SM SCT025 OVC040
     FM132000 33007KT P6SM BKN080
     FM140200 35008KT P6SM SCT100

FTUS80 KSEA 130906 AAA
KSEA 130903Z 1309/1412 04008KT P6SM BKN070 BKN100
     FM131300 04014KT P6SM BKN050
     FM131800 04014KT P6SM SCT050
     FM140300 04008KT P6SM SKC

FTUS44 KBOI 130521
KBOI 130520Z 1306/1406 13005KT P6SM BKN070 OVC100
     FM131100 VRB04KT P6SM OVC080 PROB30 1311/1316 -SHRA SCT050
      OVC070
     FM132200 31008KT P6SM BKN100

FTUS54 KPDT 130521 RRB
KPDT 130520Z 1306/1406 11005KT 6SM -RA SCT025 OVC040
     FM131300 36009KT P6SM SCT025 OVC050 PROB30 1315/1317 -RA
      OVC015

FTUS80 KALW 130521 RRA
KALW 130520Z 1306/1406 11009KT 6SM -RA OVC040 PROB30 1312/1315 -RA
      OVC015
     FM131500 VRB05KT P6SM OVC050

FTUS80 KPSC 130521 RRX
KPSC 130520Z 1306/1406 09008KT P6SM -RA OVC040
     FM130700 01010KT 6SM -RA SCT025 OVC040
     FM131500 34012KT P6SM OVC100

FTUS54 KYKM 130521 RRE
KYKM 130520Z 1306/1406 05008KT P6SM -RA SCT025 OVC040
     FM130800 36010KT P6SM -RA SCT025 OVC035
     FM131400 02015G25KT P6SM -RA OVC050
     FM131800 01015G23KT P6SM BKN050

FTUS54 KDLS 130521
KDLS 130520Z 1306/1406 30003KT 6SM -RA BR SCT030 OVC045
     FM130900 10003KT 6SM -RA OVC020
     FM131800 VRB04KT P6SM OVC100

FTUS46 KPDT 130520
TAFBDN
TAF
KBDN 130520Z 1306/1406 35010KT 6SM -RA SCT025 OVC040
     FM130800 34009KT 6SM -RA OVC025=

FTUS80 KMSO 130927 AAA
KMSO 130923Z 1309/1406 12008G21KT P6SM VCSH BKN050 OVC070
     FM131400 11018G25KT P6SM VCSH OVC050 PROB30 1314/1318 3SM -SN
      BR BKN020 OVC050

FTUS43 KBTM 130530
KBTM 130528Z 1306/1406 30007KT 3SM -SN BR OVC009
      TEMPO 1306/1308 3/4SM -SN BR BKN005
     FM131200 09011KT 2SM -SN BR OVC007
     FM131700 VRB05KT P6SM VCSH SCT025 BKN050

FTUS80 KSMN 130530 RRB
KSMN 130528Z 1306/1406 21006KT P6SM VCSH SCT080 OVC100
     FM130900 17004KT P6SM OVC050
     FM132100 11011KT P6SM BKN120

FTUS44 KGPI 130530
KGPI 130528Z 1306/1406 03018G28KT 6SM -SN SCT030 OVC040
     FM131000 03015G20KT P6SM VCSH OVC050
     FM132300 04014KT P6SM OVC050

Raw METARs for WFO OTX CWA and Surrounding Areas

--TAFs--	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
KGEG	1015Z	37	36	93		30	30	10			7	-RA	0.01	SCT005 BKN012 OVC024
KSFF	1015Z	43	39	87				calm			10			OVC025
KCOE	1020Z	36	34	93		26	10	17			10
KPUW	1020Z	43	37	81		37	90	10			10			OVC085
KLWS	1020Z	45	41	87				calm			10			BKN090
KMWH	1015Z	43	39	87		35	40	17			10		0.01	OVC039
KEAT	1015Z	39	37	93		34	220	7			10	-RA		OVC020
--WA--	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
KS52	1010Z	38	37	95			130	3			10			CLR
KOMK	1015Z	43	36	76		35	360	16			10			OVC060
KS10
KEPH	1015Z	43	39	87		35	30	18			10	-RA		FEW021 OVC029
K63S	1010Z	36	32	87				calm			10			BKN055 OVC070
KDEW	1020Z	37	34	87		28	40	16			10	UP	0.01	OVC038
KSKA	1025Z	37	36	93		28	30	16			10			BKN015 OVC023
--ID--	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
K65S	1015Z	36	28	75		29	340	9			10			FEW041 OVC050
KSZT	1010Z	37	30	75		26	20	22	33		10			BKN060 OVC070
KMLP	1020Z	27	27	100				calm			1 1/2	-SN BR		OVC002
-PDT TAFs-	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
KPDT	1015Z	45	43	93				calm			5	-RA BR	0.02	OVC042
KALW	1015Z	46	43	87			40	3			10	-RA		BKN048 OVC065
KPSC	1015Z	46	46	100			340	3			7	-RA	0.02	OVC048
KYKM	1015Z	45	39	81		40	10	10			8	RA	0.03	FEW021 OVC035
KDLS	0951Z	43	39	87		39	210	6			10			FEW045 BKN070
KRDM	1015Z	37	36	93				calm			10			FEW041 OVC080
KBDN	1015Z	36	34	93				calm			10			FEW041 SCT050 OVC065
-MSO TAFs-	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
KMSO	1020Z	36	27	70		30	120	7			10			OVC060
KBTM	1020Z	27	25	93				calm			10			OVC019
KSMN	1020Z	43	36	76		39	210	6			10			OVC070
KGPI	1020Z	36	21	56		27	40	13			10			OVC065
KHRF	1015Z	34	34	100		29	350	5			10			SCT007 BKN011 OVC017
-Misc-	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
KSEA	1015Z	45	43	93		39	30	13			10			FEW070 BKN085 BKN110
KSMP	1017Z	32	32	100				calm			3/4	BR		BKN012 OVC023
KELN	1015Z	41	37	87		38	300	5			10			BKN045 OVC055
KRLD	1015Z	47	47	99				calm			7	UP	0.01	SCT023 SCT029 OVC060
KGIC	1010Z	36	36	100				calm			1			OVC002
KHRI	1015Z	48	46	94			90	3			10	-RA	0.01	SCT041 OVC049
KP69	0952Z	43	42	97				calm

Lowest Expected Flight Category Forecasts - EXPERIMENTAL

•This site is for informational purposes. It should be used with other preflight information sources needed to satisfy all the requirements of 14 CFR 91.103. It is NOT designed to be used as a primary or sole source of information for preflight action. Refer to Flight Service for more information.

0-1 hr Ceiling Forecast	0-1 hr Visibility Forecast

1-2 hr Ceiling Forecast	1-2 hr Visibility Forecast

2-3 hr Ceiling Forecast	2-3 hr Visibility Forecast

3-4 hr Ceiling Forecast	3-4 hr Visibility Forecast

4-5 hr Ceiling Forecast	4-5 hr Visibility Forecast

5-6 hr Ceiling Forecast	5-6 hr Visibility Forecast

6-12 hr Ceiling Forecast	6-12 hr Visibility Forecast

12-18 hr Ceiling Forecast	12-18 hr Visibility Forecast

18-24 hr Ceiling Forecast	18-24 hr Visibility Forecast

HREF Ceiling Probabilities - EXPERIMENTAL

•These plots are produced by HREF ensemble guidance and are for informational purposes. It should be used with other preflight information sources needed to satisfy all the requirements of 14 CFR 91.103. It is NOT designed to be used as a primary or sole source of information for preflight action. Refer to Flight Service for more information.

0-1 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	0-1 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	0-1 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

1-2 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	1-2 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	1-2 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

2-3 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	2-3 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	2-3 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

3-4 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	3-4 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	3-4 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

4-5 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	4-5 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	4-5 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

5-6 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	5-6 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	5-6 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

6-12 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	6-12 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	6-12 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

12-18 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	12-18 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	12-18 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

18-24 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	18-24 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	18-24 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

HREF Visibility Probabilities - EXPERIMENTAL

0-1 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	0-1 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	0-1 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

1-2 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	1-2 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	1-2 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

2-3 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	2-3 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	2-3 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

3-4 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	3-4 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	3-4 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

4-5 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	4-5 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	4-5 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

5-6 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	5-6 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	5-6 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

6-12 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	6-12 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	6-12 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

12-18 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	12-18 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	12-18 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

18-24 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	18-24 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	18-24 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi


0-1 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	0-1 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

1-2 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	1-2 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

2-3 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	2-3 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

3-4 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	3-4 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

4-5 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	4-5 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

5-6 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	5-6 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

6-12 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	6-12 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

12-18 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	12-18 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

18-24 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	18-24 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi