Frigid Airmass to Bring Significantly Colder Temperatures; Heavy Lake-effect Snow; Fire Concerns Across the Central Gulf Coast

A frigid cold airmass will bring significantly colder weather across the eastern two thirds of the country early this week. Temperatures will tie or break many records across the Southeast through tonight. Moderate to heavy lake effect snow will continue downwind of the Great Lakes. Gusty winds and dry conditions will support an elevated fire weather threat across the Central Gulf Coast. Read More >

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Aviation Forecast Discussion

.AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Around 18Z, a front will move through, bringing lower ceilings to all TAF sites and rain chances to KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. Ensembles are showing 40-60% chance for MVFR ceilings over these locations from 18-02Z but the 06z KOTX sounding suggests lots of dry air to overcome. Chances for rain continue through 06z in southeast WA. Models hinting at lower cigs developing in eastern WA/north ID Tuesday morning but chances are not high (20-40% chance). .FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions to persist. Low confidence for MVFR conditions for KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard &&

Latest GEG Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF)

FTUS44 KGEG 101124
KGEG 101121Z 1012/1112 15005KT P6SM BKN100
     FM101800 19006KT P6SM BKN100 PROB30 1020/1024 -RA OVC050
     FM110200 18006KT P6SM OVC100

Latest Area Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs)

FTUS44 KSFF 101124
KSFF 101121Z 1012/1112 15005KT P6SM BKN200
     FM101800 19006KT P6SM BKN100 PROB30 1020/1024 -RA OVC050
     FM110100 VRB03KT P6SM BKN050

FTUS46 KOTX 101121
TAFCOE
TAF
KCOE 101121Z 1012/1112 11005KT P6SM BKN200
     FM101800 22006KT P6SM OVC100
      PROB30 1022/1101 -RA OVC050
     FM110100 VRB04KT P6SM OVC050=

FTUS54 KPUW 101124
KPUW 101121Z 1012/1112 11005KT P6SM SKC
     FM102100 24009KT P6SM OVC100 PROB30 1023/1101 -RA OVC050
     FM110100 VRB04KT P6SM OVC050

FTUS46 KOTX 101121
TAFLWS
TAF
KLWS 101121Z 1012/1112 12005KT P6SM BKN250
     FM101800 VRB03KT P6SM OVC100
     FM110200 VRB04KT P6SM OVC050=

FTUS44 KMWH 101124
KMWH 101121Z 1012/1112 15003KT P6SM OVC250
     FM101300 VRB03KT P6SM OVC100
     FM101800 VRB03KT P6SM BKN080

FTUS80 KEAT 101124 RRA
KEAT 101121Z 1012/1112 VRB03KT P6SM BKN250
     FM101700 25005KT P6SM OVC050
     FM110000 VRB04KT P6SM SKC

FTUS80 KSEA 101403 AAA
KSEA 101401Z 1014/1118 23007KT P6SM -RA BKN016 OVC090
     FM101600 21008KT P6SM VCSH OVC020
     FM102000 24010KT P6SM OVC025
     FM102300 20005KT P6SM SCT025 OVC035
     FM110600 20004KT P6SM OVC025

FTUS44 KBOI 101142
KBOI 101138Z 1012/1112 14008KT P6SM BKN200
     FM101400 VRB04KT P6SM BKN200
     FM110000 32005KT P6SM SCT200
     FM110400 VRB03KT P6SM SCT200

FTUS80 KPDT 101127 RRD
KPDT 101125Z 1012/1112 16005KT P6SM OVC200
     FM102200 28009KT P6SM SCT050 SCT100 OVC200
     FM110100 23007KT P6SM BKN035 OVC050 PROB30 1101/1107 -RA

FTUS80 KALW 101127
KALW 101125Z 1012/1112 16005KT P6SM OVC200
     FM101900 21009G15KT P6SM OVC200
     FM102200 22007KT P6SM BKN050 BKN100 BKN200
     FM110000 20008KT P6SM SCT025 BKN035 OVC050 PROB30 1100/1106
      -RA
     FM110700 20008KT P6SM FEW035 BKN050 BKN250

FTUS80 KPSC 101403 AAA
KPSC 101400Z 1014/1112 VRB04KT 6SM BR OVC200
      TEMPO 1014/1017 5SM BR
     FM101800 VRB04KT P6SM OVC200
     FM102100 30005KT P6SM BKN050 BKN100 OVC200 PROB30 1023/1103
      -RA
     FM110400 VRB03KT P6SM SCT250

FTUS80 KYKM 101127 RRE
KYKM 101125Z 1012/1112 28003KT P6SM OVC200
     FM101800 VRB04KT P6SM FEW050 BKN100 OVC200
     FM110000 28004KT P6SM SCT250

FTUS80 KDLS 101127 RRA
KDLS 101125Z 1012/1112 VRB03KT P6SM OVC200
     FM102100 31009G15KT P6SM SCT040 BKN060 OVC100 PROB30
      1021/1101
      -RA
     FM110500 28006KT P6SM SCT250

FTUS46 KPDT 101125
TAFBDN
TAF
KBDN 101125Z 1012/1112 18008KT P6SM OVC200
     FM101900 22009G15KT P6SM OVC200
     FM102100 29006KT P6SM OVC200
     FM110200 22006KT P6SM SCT050 SCT100 BKN250=

FTUS80 KMSO 101127 RRC
KMSO 101126Z 1012/1112 VRB03KT P6SM SCT250
     FM102100 26007KT P6SM SCT100
     FM110200 31006KT P6SM VCSH OVC050

FTUS80 KBTM 101127
KBTM 101126Z 1012/1112 VRB03KT P6SM SCT200
     FM101900 24011G16KT P6SM SCT150

FTUS80 KSMN 101127 RRE
KSMN 101126Z 1012/1112 00000KT P6SM FEW250
     FM102200 18008KT P6SM SCT100

FTUS80 KGPI 101609 AAA
KGPI 101606Z 1016/1112 VRB03KT 1/2SM FG BKN002
      TEMPO 1016/1018 2SM BR SCT002
     FM102100 18007KT P6SM VCSH SCT050 BKN070
     FM110000 21007KT P6SM -SHRA OVC045

Raw METARs for WFO OTX CWA and Surrounding Areas

--TAFs--	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
KGEG	1600Z	37	34	87		33	50	5			10			FEW075
KSFF	1600Z	37	36	93				calm			9			CLR
KCOE	1600Z	37	36	93		32	50	7			10			CLR
KPUW	1600Z	46	36	66		44	90	5			10			CLR
KLWS	1600Z	43	37	81				calm			10			CLR
KMWH	1555Z	37	37	100		32	350	6			6	BR		CLR
KEAT	1555Z	39	37	93			30	3			10			BKN070
--WA--	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
KS52	1555Z	34						calm			10			BKN085 OVC110
KOMK	1555Z	37	36	93				calm			10			BKN085
KS10
KEPH	1555Z	39	37	93		34	30	7			10			CLR
KDEW	1600Z	36	34	93				calm			10			CLR
KSKA	1555Z	38	36	91				calm			10			OVC140
--ID--	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
KSZT	1550Z	34	34	100				calm			10			OVC070
KMLP	1600Z	43	28	57							10			SCT120
-PDT TAFs-	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
KPDT	1555Z	43	39	87		38	110	8			10			CLR
KALW	1555Z	45	39	81				calm			8			CLR
KPSC	1555Z	39	39	100			120	3			4	BR		CLR
KYKM	1555Z	36	36	100		32	20	5			10			CLR
KRDM	1556Z	41	34	76		37	60	6			10			CLR
-MSO TAFs-	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
KMSO	1600Z	30	27	86				calm			10			CLR
KBTM	1600Z	28	23	80			280	3			10			CLR
KSMN	1605Z	25	21	86				calm			10			CLR
KGPI	1605Z	28	28	100		22	360	5			1/2	FZFG		VV002
-Misc-	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
KSEA	1600Z	55	52	88			160	7			10			SCT090 OVC110
KSMP	1556Z	44	44	100				calm			1/4	FG	0.01	BKN003 OVC008
KELN	1600Z	36	34	93			300	3			6	BR		BKN060
KRLD	1555Z	45	43	95		42	140	6			10			CLR
KGIC	1555Z	39	34	81				calm			10			CLR
KP69	1552Z	37	36	96			VRB	3

Lowest Expected Flight Category Forecasts - EXPERIMENTAL

•This site is for informational purposes. It should be used with other preflight information sources needed to satisfy all the requirements of 14 CFR 91.103. It is NOT designed to be used as a primary or sole source of information for preflight action. Refer to Flight Service for more information.

0-1 hr Ceiling Forecast	0-1 hr Visibility Forecast

1-2 hr Ceiling Forecast	1-2 hr Visibility Forecast

2-3 hr Ceiling Forecast	2-3 hr Visibility Forecast

3-4 hr Ceiling Forecast	3-4 hr Visibility Forecast

4-5 hr Ceiling Forecast	4-5 hr Visibility Forecast

5-6 hr Ceiling Forecast	5-6 hr Visibility Forecast

6-12 hr Ceiling Forecast	6-12 hr Visibility Forecast

12-18 hr Ceiling Forecast	12-18 hr Visibility Forecast

18-24 hr Ceiling Forecast	18-24 hr Visibility Forecast

HREF Ceiling Probabilities - EXPERIMENTAL

•These plots are produced by HREF ensemble guidance and are for informational purposes. It should be used with other preflight information sources needed to satisfy all the requirements of 14 CFR 91.103. It is NOT designed to be used as a primary or sole source of information for preflight action. Refer to Flight Service for more information.

0-1 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	0-1 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	0-1 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

1-2 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	1-2 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	1-2 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

2-3 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	2-3 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	2-3 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

3-4 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	3-4 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	3-4 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

4-5 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	4-5 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	4-5 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

5-6 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	5-6 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	5-6 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

6-12 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	6-12 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	6-12 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

12-18 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	12-18 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	12-18 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

18-24 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	18-24 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	18-24 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

HREF Visibility Probabilities - EXPERIMENTAL

0-1 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	0-1 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	0-1 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

1-2 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	1-2 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	1-2 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

2-3 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	2-3 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	2-3 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

3-4 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	3-4 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	3-4 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

4-5 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	4-5 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	4-5 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

5-6 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	5-6 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	5-6 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

6-12 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	6-12 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	6-12 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

12-18 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	12-18 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	12-18 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

18-24 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	18-24 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	18-24 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi


0-1 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	0-1 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

1-2 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	1-2 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

2-3 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	2-3 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

3-4 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	3-4 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

4-5 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	4-5 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

5-6 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	5-6 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

6-12 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	6-12 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

12-18 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	12-18 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

18-24 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	18-24 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi