Tracking a Couple of Storm Systems Across the Country

Showers, along with a few strong to severe thunderstorms, are expected from the Great Lakes, New England and southward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. In the wake of this system, a stronger storm is expected to track from the Pacific Northwest, Plains and through the Eastern U.S. this weekend. Strong winds, showers and a larger drop in temperatures are expected this weekend into Monday. Read More >

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Aviation Forecast Discussion

.AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Areas of freezing fog, producing LIFR conditions are impacting the Spokane terminals from SFF to GEG. Stable weather conditions aloft coupled with light easterly boundary layer winds leads to low confidence for exact burn off times. HREF picked up on the LIFR probabilities this morning suggesting rapid drop in LIFR probabilities/conditions by 20z. Additional terminals across the valleys of NE WA and N ID including CQV, SZT, 65S are contending with a mix of IFR and MVFR stratus but satellite trends showing these beginning to burn off btwn SZT-65S and will likely be closer to 20-21z along the Pend Oreille River and Columbia River in NE WA. Otherwise, mainly high clouds spilling into the region from the NW with VFR skies. Easterly winds will elevated for PUW through late morning and again Sunday morning with speeds of 10-15kts. MOS is indicating fog redeveloping around CQV, SFF, GEG again Sunday morning around 10-12z. HREF has very low probabilities thus confidence is leaning toward persistence. .FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions to persist for KEAT, KMWH, KPUW, and KLWS. There is low confidence for exact time for fog to fully burn off at KGEG and KSFF which could be as late as 21-22z with some model soundings suggesting it lifting into an MVFR stratus deck vs fully eroding. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard &&

Latest GEG Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF)

FTUS80 KGEG 081739 RRB
KGEG 081737Z 0818/0918 06003KT 1/4SM FZFG VV001
     FM081900 07006KT 1/2SM FZFG BKN002
     FM082000 07004KT 3SM BR SCT003 SCT120
     FM082030 05004KT P6SM SCT120
     FM091200 04005KT 1/2SM FZFG VV002

Latest Area Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs)

FTUS80 KSFF 081739 RRE
KSFF 081737Z 0818/0918 VRB01KT 1/4SM FZFG VV002
     FM081900 VRB02KT 1SM BR BKN003
     FM082000 07004KT P6SM SCT120
     FM091200 04001KT 1/4SM FZFG VV002

FTUS46 KOTX 081737
TAFCOE
TAF
KCOE 081737Z 0818/0918 06005KT P6SM SCT020 SCT120
     FM082000 05007KT P6SM SCT120
     FM090900 04010KT P6SM FEW002=

FTUS54 KPUW 081739 RRA
KPUW 081737Z 0818/0918 10012KT P6SM FEW120 SCT200
     FM082200 10007KT P6SM FEW200
     FM091500 10014KT P6SM SKC

FTUS46 KOTX 081737
TAFLWS
TAF
KLWS 081737Z 0818/0918 09006KT P6SM FEW120 SCT250
     FM082300 13004KT P6SM FEW250=

FTUS80 KMWH 081739 RRD
KMWH 081737Z 0818/0918 01007KT P6SM SCT250

FTUS80 KEAT 081739 RRA
KEAT 081737Z 0818/0918 VRB04KT P6SM SCT200

FTUS80 KSEA 081721 RRR
KSEA 081720Z 0818/0924 04006KT P6SM SCT200
     FM090300 10004KT P6SM BKN200
     FM091200 18003KT P6SM FEW250
     FM091500 17004KT P6SM SCT250
     FM091900 20004KT P6SM SCT130

FTUS44 KBOI 081721
KBOI 081720Z 0818/0918 VRB05KT P6SM FEW200
     FM090600 12007KT P6SM FEW200

FTUS54 KPDT 081721 RRA
KPDT 081720Z 0818/0918 36007KT P6SM FEW250

FTUS80 KALW 081721
KALW 081720Z 0818/0918 12005KT P6SM FEW250

FTUS80 KPSC 081721 RRP
KPSC 081720Z 0818/0918 35007KT P6SM FEW250

FTUS80 KYKM 081721 RRT
KYKM 081720Z 0818/0918 32005KT P6SM FEW250

FTUS80 KDLS 081721 RRE
KDLS 081720Z 0818/0918 09006KT P6SM OVC006
     FM082000 08007KT P6SM FEW015

FTUS46 KPDT 081720
TAFBDN
TAF
KBDN 081720Z 0818/0918 VRB04KT P6SM FEW250=

FTUS44 KMSO 081721 RRA
KMSO 081720Z 0818/0918 28004KT P6SM SKC
     FM091000 VRB03KT 5SM BR VCFG SCT030
     FM091600 VRB03KT P6SM SCT030

FTUS43 KBTM 081721
KBTM 081720Z 0818/0918 30010KT P6SM SKC
     FM090100 VRB03KT P6SM SKC

FTUS80 KSMN 081721 RRR
KSMN 081720Z 0818/0918 00000KT P6SM SKC

FTUS44 KGPI 081721
KGPI 081720Z 0818/0918 17003KT P6SM SKC
     FM090900 VRB03KT 5SM BR VCFG SCT030
     FM091500 VRB03KT P6SM SCT030

Raw METARs for WFO OTX CWA and Surrounding Areas

--TAFs--	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
KGEG	1753Z	33	32	96		27	50	6			1/8	FG		VV001
KSFF	1753Z	35	34	96				calm			1/4	FG		VV002
KCOE	1756Z	40	36	86		35	60	7			10			CLR
KPUW	1753Z	44	36	73		38	110	12			10			CLR
KLWS	1756Z	42	37	82		39	VRB	5			10			CLR
KMWH	1752Z	40	34	79		35	20	8			10			CLR
KEAT	1755Z	41	32	70		36	290	7			10			CLR
--WA--	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
KS52	1755Z	35	29	79			360	3			10			SCT075 SCT090 BKN120
KOMK	1753Z	38	30	73			110	3			10			CLR
KS10
KEPH	1753Z	42	33	71		35	360	12			10			CLR
K63S	1735Z	32	32	100				calm			3/4	BR		OVC003
KDEW	1753Z	39	34	82		33	40	8			10			CLR
KSKA	1756Z	36	35	97		30	60	8			5/8	BR		VV001
--ID--	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
K65S	1735Z	37	34	87				calm			10			OVC030
KSZT	1730Z	34	34	100				calm			7			SCT002
KMLP	1753Z	31	26	82		26	170	5			10			FEW008
-PDT TAFs-	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
KPDT	1753Z	44	36	73			140	3			10			CLR
KALW	1753Z	45	37	74			VRB	3			10			CLR
KPSC	1753Z	43	37	80			VRB	3			10			CLR
KYKM	1753Z	45	34	66		42	270	5			10			CLR
KDLS	1700Z	43	43	100		40	80	5			6	BR		OVC005
KRDM	1756Z	43	28	56				calm			10			CLR
KBDN	1735Z	45	28	53				calm			10			CLR
-MSO TAFs-	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
KMSO	1755Z	39	30	70				calm			10			CLR
KBTM	1755Z	37	18	45		33	30	5			10			CLR
KSMN	1756Z	39	21	48		35	260	5			10			CLR
KGPI	1755Z	43	30	61		38	150	8			10			CLR
KHRF	1735Z	43	28	57		39	210	6			10			CLR
-Misc-	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
KSEA	1753Z	47	40	77		45	300	5			10			SCT250
KSMP	1756Z	32	31	96							8			CLR
KELN	1753Z	39	34	82			80	3			10			CLR
KRLD	1755Z	46	41	84			320	3			10			CLR
KGIC	1755Z	37	32	81				calm			10			CLR
KP69	1752Z	43	39	86			30	3

Lowest Expected Flight Category Forecasts - EXPERIMENTAL

•This site is for informational purposes. It should be used with other preflight information sources needed to satisfy all the requirements of 14 CFR 91.103. It is NOT designed to be used as a primary or sole source of information for preflight action. Refer to Flight Service for more information.

0-1 hr Ceiling Forecast	0-1 hr Visibility Forecast

1-2 hr Ceiling Forecast	1-2 hr Visibility Forecast

2-3 hr Ceiling Forecast	2-3 hr Visibility Forecast

3-4 hr Ceiling Forecast	3-4 hr Visibility Forecast

4-5 hr Ceiling Forecast	4-5 hr Visibility Forecast

5-6 hr Ceiling Forecast	5-6 hr Visibility Forecast

6-12 hr Ceiling Forecast	6-12 hr Visibility Forecast

12-18 hr Ceiling Forecast	12-18 hr Visibility Forecast

18-24 hr Ceiling Forecast	18-24 hr Visibility Forecast

HREF Ceiling Probabilities - EXPERIMENTAL

•These plots are produced by HREF ensemble guidance and are for informational purposes. It should be used with other preflight information sources needed to satisfy all the requirements of 14 CFR 91.103. It is NOT designed to be used as a primary or sole source of information for preflight action. Refer to Flight Service for more information.

0-1 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	0-1 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	0-1 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

1-2 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	1-2 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	1-2 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

2-3 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	2-3 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	2-3 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

3-4 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	3-4 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	3-4 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

4-5 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	4-5 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	4-5 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

5-6 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	5-6 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	5-6 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

6-12 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	6-12 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	6-12 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

12-18 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	12-18 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	12-18 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

18-24 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	18-24 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	18-24 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

HREF Visibility Probabilities - EXPERIMENTAL

0-1 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	0-1 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	0-1 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

1-2 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	1-2 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	1-2 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

2-3 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	2-3 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	2-3 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

3-4 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	3-4 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	3-4 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

4-5 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	4-5 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	4-5 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

5-6 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	5-6 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	5-6 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

6-12 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	6-12 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	6-12 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

12-18 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	12-18 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	12-18 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

18-24 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	18-24 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	18-24 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi


0-1 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	0-1 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

1-2 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	1-2 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

2-3 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	2-3 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

3-4 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	3-4 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

4-5 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	4-5 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

5-6 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	5-6 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

6-12 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	6-12 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

12-18 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	12-18 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

18-24 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	18-24 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi