Severe Weather in the Central Plains; Fire Concerns in the Southern High Plains and Southwest; Late-Season Mountain Snow

Severe storms, including large hail, wind, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are possible in the central Plains. Dry, windy conditions and lightning from dry thunderstorms may produce hazardous fire conditions in the Southwest and southern High Plains. Late-season snow is expected in the Northwest and the Great Basin. Heat is spreading across the eastern U.S.. Read More >

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Aviation Forecast Discussion

.AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: A low pressure system over the region will continue to bring scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through the evening. Given isolated nature of thunderstorms did not include for any of the TAF sites but the eastern TAF sites (KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW/KLWS) have the best potential and will be monitored for possible amendments this evening. Storms today have had a history of producing pea size hail, and gusty outflow wind gusts up to 30 kts. The low will exit overnight leading to a decrease in showers and wind although showers rotating south on the back side of the low will continue to produce shower activity over the ID Panhandle down to the palouse into Sunday morning. Ceilings are forecast to lower overnight due to a moist boundary layer and upslope boundary layer winds for the ID Panhandle, and extreme Eastern WA leading to areas of stratus with IFR and MVFR conditions. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is a 60-80 percent chance for MVFR ceilings and a 20-40 percent chance for IFR conditions to develop late tonight into Sunday morning for KPUW/KCOE. For KGEG/KSFF chances are about half those values (30-40 percent chance MVFR, 10-20 percent chance IFR) for late tonight into Sunday morning. These probabilities could increase depending on amount of precipitation that falls this evening. There is higher confidence in VFR conditions persisting at KEAT/KMWH through the TAF period. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard &&

Latest GEG Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF)

FTUS44 KGEG 170133 AAA
KGEG 170132Z 1702/1724 34012G20KT 4SM -TSRAGS SCT035CB BKN050
      OVC090
     FM170245 21007KT P6SM SCT035 BKN060 BKN090
     FM170600 19005KT P6SM SCT070 BKN200
     FM171100 17005KT P6SM BKN035
     FM171400 05005KT P6SM SCT060

Latest Area Terminal Aerodrome Forecasts (TAFs)

FTUS44 KSFF 162336
KSFF 162335Z 1700/1724 21011KT P6SM SCT030 BKN045 BKN060 PROB30
      1700/1704 -SHRA
     FM170600 05002KT P6SM SCT070 BKN200
     FM171000 VRB02KT P6SM BKN040
     FM171400 VRB03KT P6SM SCT070

FTUS46 KOTX 162335
TAFCOE
TAF
KCOE 162335Z 1700/1724 24011KT P6SM -SHRA SCT025 BKN040
     FM170200 16005KT P6SM BKN060
      PROB30 1702/1704 -SHRA
     FM170800 15004KT P6SM BKN025
     FM171400 03006KT P6SM OVC035
     FM171900 35005KT P6SM SCT060=

FTUS54 KPUW 170130 AAA
KPUW 170128Z 1701/1724 23011KT P6SM -SHRA SCT030 BKN060
      TEMPO 1701/1703 04012G18KT 3SM SHRA OVC030
     FM170400 19004KT P6SM BKN035 PROB30 1704/1706 -SHRA
     FM171200 28004KT P6SM BKN025 PROB30 1712/1715 5SM -SHRASN
     FM172000 30008KT P6SM SCT040 BKN070

FTUS46 KOTX 162335
TAFLWS
TAF
KLWS 162335Z 1700/1724 29015G28KT P6SM -SHRA FEW060 SCT080 BKN110
     FM170400 19007KT P6SM BKN080
      PROB30 1704/1708 -SHRA
     FM171200 23002KT P6SM BKN060
     FM171800 31009KT P6SM BKN070=

FTUS44 KMWH 170015 AAA
KMWH 170013Z 1700/1724 31010G17KT P6SM FEW090 BKN110
      TEMPO 1700/1702 05017KT -TSRA FEW050CB OVC100
     FM170400 31006KT P6SM SCT090
     FM171800 02007KT P6SM FEW080

FTUS80 KEAT 162336 RRB
KEAT 162335Z 1700/1724 31021G30KT P6SM FEW090
     FM170300 30013KT P6SM FEW090
     FM170900 31010KT P6SM SCT070
     FM172000 27008KT P6SM SKC

FTUS80 KSEA 162327 RRG
KSEA 162325Z 1700/1806 34008KT 6SM -RA FEW035 BKN060 BKN080 PROB30
      1700/1701 -TSRA BKN025CB
     FM170100 VRB05KT P6SM VCSH BKN060
     FM170200 17006KT P6SM VCSH SCT060
     FM171300 17003KT P6SM BKN022
     FM171800 00000KT P6SM BKN035
     FM172100 33005KT P6SM SCT250
     FM180500 01003KT P6SM BKN220

FTUS80 KBOI 162324 RRA
KBOI 162322Z 1700/1724 34018G27KT P6SM SCT080
     FM170400 30010KT P6SM BKN080
     FM171500 32015G25KT P6SM SCT080 BKN100
     FM172000 34025G35KT P6SM SCT080 BKN100 PROB30 1720/1724
      VRB25G40KT -SHRA BKN070

FTUS80 KPDT 162321 RRP
KPDT 162320Z 1700/1724 26020G28KT P6SM FEW040 BKN060 BKN100 PROB30
      1700/1703 6SM -SHRA SCT030 OVC050
     FM170800 26009KT P6SM BKN050 BKN100
     FM172000 32011KT P6SM BKN150

FTUS80 KALW 162321
KALW 162320Z 1700/1724 29011KT P6SM VCSH FEW030 BKN050 BKN070
      PROB30 1700/1706 6SM -SHRA SCT030 OVC050
     FM170600 20011KT P6SM BKN050 BKN100
     FM171600 23008KT P6SM BKN040 BKN080

FTUS80 KPSC 162321 RRQ
KPSC 162320Z 1700/1724 11011KT P6SM SCT060 BKN100 PROB30 1700/1703
      6SM -SHRA OVC050
     FM170300 26009KT P6SM BKN050 BKN100

FTUS80 KYKM 162321 RRW
KYKM 162320Z 1700/1724 29012G22KT P6SM SCT060 BKN100
     FM171000 33010KT P6SM FEW070 SCT100 SCT150

FTUS80 KDLS 162321 RRF
KDLS 162320Z 1700/1724 29015G25KT P6SM BKN050 BKN100 PROB30
      1700/1702 6SM -SHRA SCT030 OVC050
     FM171000 30009KT P6SM FEW100
     FM171800 31015G25KT P6SM SCT150

FTUS46 KPDT 162320
TAFBDN
TAF
KBDN 162320Z 1700/1724 32012G22KT P6SM SCT035 BKN050 BKN100
      PROB30 1700/1702 6SM -SHRA SCT030 OVC050
     FM170200 31010G18KT P6SM SCT030 BKN050 BKN100
      PROB30 1702/1708 6SM -SHRA BKN030 OVC050
     FM170800 32007KT P6SM SCT030 BKN050
     FM171800 34015G24KT P6SM SCT250=

FTUS80 KMSO 162342 RRA
KMSO 162340Z 1700/1724 33010G20KT 6SM -RA VCTS SCT030 BKN050CB
     FM170200 33006KT P6SM VCSH BKN035
     FM171000 VRB04KT 6SM -RA BR OVC015
     FM171600 34008KT P6SM VCSH BKN050

FTUS54 KBTM 162342
KBTM 162340Z 1700/1724 32011KT 5SM -RASN BR BKN035
     FM170800 00000KT 5SM -SN BR BKN035
     FM171200 34005KT P6SM OVC020
     FM171800 33008G20KT P6SM -SHRASN BKN030 AMD NOT SKED

FTUS80 KSMN 162342 RRB
KSMN 162340Z 1700/1724 32012G22KT P6SM -SHRA FEW070 BKN080
     FM170400 02010KT P6SM OVC100
     FM171700 35008KT P6SM FEW045 PROB30 1721/1724 4SM -SHRA BR
      OVC030

FTUS80 KGPI 162342
KGPI 162340Z 1700/1724 17010KT P6SM -SHRA VCTS SCT015 BKN040CB
     FM170200 19006KT P6SM BKN035
     FM170800 VRB03KT P6SM -RA OVC025 PROB30 1709/1712 4SM -RA BR
      OVC015
     FM171400 03010KT P6SM VCSH BKN050

Raw METARs for WFO OTX CWA and Surrounding Areas

--TAFs--	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
KGEG	0125Z	46	36	66		42	160	7			10			SCT035 BKN055 BKN090
KSFF	0125Z	46	34	62		43	210	6			10			BKN070
KCOE	0125Z	46	36	66		44	260	5			10			FEW065
KPUW	0125Z	37	36	93		29	30	13			3	-RA BR	0.03	OVC030
KLWS	0125Z	54	30	41				calm			10			CLR
KMWH	0125Z	57	30	36			90	7			10			BKN085
KEAT	0125Z	61	25	25			300	23	30		10			CLR
--WA--	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
KS52	0115Z	58	26	29			350	23			10			SCT100
KOMK	0125Z	55	30	38			210	5			10			SCT110
KS10
KEPH	0125Z	55	36	47			50	8			10	-RA	0.01	SCT065 OVC085
K63S	0115Z	50	36	58		46	310	9			10			FEW044 BKN050 OVC060
KDEW	0125Z	45	39	81		40	180	10			10			FEW050 BKN070 OVC090
KSKA	0106Z	48	37	66		44	180	9			10	VCTS		CLR
--ID--	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
K65S	0115Z	46	37	71
KSZT	0115Z	46	34	62		41	220	9	16		10			SCT075
KMLP	0125Z	28	27	93				calm			5	BR		BKN002 OVC007
-PDT TAFs-	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
KPDT	0125Z	55	30	38			260	30	36		10			BKN090
KALW	0125Z	54	36	51			180	17			10			FEW095
KPSC	0128Z	58	33	39			330	8			10	-RA	T	FEW070 OVC090
KYKM	0125Z	55	30	38			280	16			10			CLR
KDLS	0125Z	55	37	51			240	6			10			FEW043 BKN050 OVC065
KRDM	0125Z	48	32	54		42	290	17			10			SCT080
KBDN	0115Z	48	28	46		41	320	18	24		10			FEW050
-MSO TAFs-	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
KMSO	0125Z	46	25	43		40	320	13			10			BKN075
KSMN	0125Z	45	25	46		41	320	7			10			SCT043 BKN050 OVC085
KGPI	0125Z	37	34	87		31	340	8			2	+RA BR	0.07	FEW012 BKN020 OVC027
KHRF	0115Z	46	27	46		40	300	13			10	UP		FEW047 SCT065 BKN075
-Misc-	Time	T	Td	RH	HI	WC	Dir	Wind	G	PK	Vis	Wx	Pcp	Clouds
KSEA	0125Z	50	43	76							10		0.02	BKN049 BKN055
KSMP	0056Z	33	33	100							1/4	FG		VV002
KELN	0125Z	52	30	44			290	24			10			CLR
K1YT	0055Z	58	29	33			330	16	23		10			FEW080 SCT200
KRLD	0115Z	61	38	42			320	8			10			SCT037 BKN090 OVC110
KGIC	0115Z	45	32	61		40	230	9	17		10			SCT041 OVC050
KHRI	0125Z	57	36	44			260	23	32		10			FEW060 SCT110
KP69	0052Z	43	43	100				calm					0.06

Lowest Expected Flight Category Forecasts - EXPERIMENTAL

•This site is for informational purposes. It should be used with other preflight information sources needed to satisfy all the requirements of 14 CFR 91.103. It is NOT designed to be used as a primary or sole source of information for preflight action. Refer to Flight Service for more information.

0-1 hr Ceiling Forecast	0-1 hr Visibility Forecast

1-2 hr Ceiling Forecast	1-2 hr Visibility Forecast

2-3 hr Ceiling Forecast	2-3 hr Visibility Forecast

3-4 hr Ceiling Forecast	3-4 hr Visibility Forecast

4-5 hr Ceiling Forecast	4-5 hr Visibility Forecast

5-6 hr Ceiling Forecast	5-6 hr Visibility Forecast

6-12 hr Ceiling Forecast	6-12 hr Visibility Forecast

12-18 hr Ceiling Forecast	12-18 hr Visibility Forecast

18-24 hr Ceiling Forecast	18-24 hr Visibility Forecast

HREF Ceiling Probabilities - EXPERIMENTAL

•These plots are produced by HREF ensemble guidance and are for informational purposes. It should be used with other preflight information sources needed to satisfy all the requirements of 14 CFR 91.103. It is NOT designed to be used as a primary or sole source of information for preflight action. Refer to Flight Service for more information.

0-1 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	0-1 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	0-1 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

1-2 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	1-2 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	1-2 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

2-3 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	2-3 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	2-3 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

3-4 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	3-4 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	3-4 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

4-5 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	4-5 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	4-5 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

5-6 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	5-6 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	5-6 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

6-12 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	6-12 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	6-12 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

12-18 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	12-18 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	12-18 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

18-24 hr Probability of Ceiling < 1000 ft	18-24 hr Probability of Ceiling < 2000 ft	18-24 hr Probability of Ceiling < 3000 ft

HREF Visibility Probabilities - EXPERIMENTAL

0-1 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	0-1 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	0-1 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

1-2 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	1-2 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	1-2 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

2-3 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	2-3 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	2-3 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

3-4 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	3-4 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	3-4 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

4-5 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	4-5 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	4-5 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

5-6 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	5-6 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	5-6 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

6-12 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	6-12 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	6-12 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

12-18 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	12-18 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	12-18 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi

18-24 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.25 mi	18-24 hr Probability of Visibility < 0.5 mi	18-24 hr Probability of Visibility < 1 mi


0-1 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	0-1 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

1-2 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	1-2 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

2-3 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	2-3 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

3-4 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	3-4 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

4-5 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	4-5 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

5-6 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	5-6 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

6-12 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	6-12 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

12-18 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	12-18 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi

18-24 hr Probability of Visibility < 2 mi	18-24 hr Probability of Visibility < 4 mi