2018-19 Winter Outlook

Outlook l Temperature l Precipitation l Conclusion


El Niño is anchored in the tropical Pacific, but it affects seasonal climate "downstream" in the United States. This map shows some of the precipitation and temperature impacts we may experience if El Niño develops this winter as predicted, but not all impacts occur during every event, and their strength and exact location can vary.


CPC U.S. Temperature Outlook for the 2018/2019 Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) Click to Enlarge	CPC U.S. Precipitation Outlook for the 2018/2019 Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) Click to Enlarge

Summary:

Climate forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict a weak El Niño to occur during the meteorological winter months of 2018-2019 (Dec-Jan-Feb). This combined with other global factors should favor Above Normal Temperatures across Wyoming with the greatest chance across northwest and north central Wyoming. Below Normal Precipitation is favored across northern Wyoming during the winter months, and the rest of the state has equal chances of above normal, below normal or normal precipitation; in other words, no clear climate signal. Things to keep in mind, and that were stated in the video above, displayed on these outlooks are the highest probability outlooks. Scroll to each category below to see additional details.

Outlook l Temperature l Precipitation l Conclusion

CPC U.S. Temperature Outlook for the 2018/2019 Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) Click to Enlarge

Jackson	Rock Springs	Cody	Casper

More Local 3-month temperature outlooks can be found here

Summary:

With a weak El Niño expected, generally above normal temperatures are favored. There still could be cold temperatures at times. The images above (click to enlarge) show the individual break down by category for temperatures across west and central Wyoming. Overall there is a 45 to 50% chance of above normal temperatures (highest chances across northwest Wyoming), with some slight chances for near and below normal temperatures during the time period.

More information: Winter temperature patterns for every El Niño since 1950.

Outlook l Temperature l Precipitation l Conclusion

CPC U.S. Precip Outlook for the 2018/2019 Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb)

Click to Enlarge

Summary:

The precipitation comes with slightly lower confidence due to variability in El Niño years. A strong El Niño does typically bring below normal precipitation across northwest Wyoming. However, some moderate to weak El Niño years have brought near to above normal precipitation in northwest Wyoming. The map above shows this winter leaning slightly towards below normal chances of precipitation across northern Wyoming , while there are equal chances of above, below or near normal precipitation (no clear climate signal) across the southern two-thirds of Wyoming.

More information: Winter precipitation patterns during every El Niño since 1950.

Outlook l Temperature l Precipitation l Conclusion

CPC U.S. Temperature Outlook for the 2018/2019 Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb)

Click to Enlarge

CPC U.S. Precipitation Outlook for the 2018/2019 Winter (Dec-Jan-Feb)

Click to Enlarge

Key Points

A weak El Niño may bring above normal temperatures this winter with the highest chances across northwest and north central Wyoming.
Chances slightly favor below normal precipitation across northern Wyoming this winter.
Other factors could over take the influence of the weak El Niño this winter and possibly bring variability to this outlook, especially for precipitation.
These outlooks are only for December, January, and February which are typically the driest months for the lower elevations east of the Continental Divide. The wettest months for these lower elevations typically come from March through June, with the typical snow season running from September through June.
These outlooks also only display the chances for above, below, or near normal temperatures and precipitation. They do not indicate how much above or below normal a given parameter will be.
Contact your local National Weather Service Office for questions and more details.