Excessive Rainfall and Potential Tropical Cyclone in the South; Severe Thunderstorms in the Midwest

Excessive rainfall may produce locally considerable flash flooding over parts of the northwestern Gulf Coast, lower Mississippi River Valley, and Deep South through Thursday. Potential Tropical Cyclone One is forecast to become a tropical storm (Arthur) as it moves along or just off the northwestern Gulf coast through Wednesday. An outbreak of severe weather is forecast in the Midwest Wednesday. Read More >

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Last Map Update: Tue, Jun 16, 2026 at 11:18:29 am CDT

Watches, Warnings & Advisories

National Weather Service Wichita, Kansas

National Weather Service Springfield, MO

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National Weather Service Little Rock, AR

National Weather Service Fort Worth/Dallas, TX

Flood Warning

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Severe Outlook Tuesday

Severe Outlook Wednesday

Severe Outlook Thursday

Heavy Rain Potential Returns

Forecast Summary

A marginal risk of severe weather is forecast Tuesday afternoon across portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary hazards with any severe thunderstorms, mainly between 2 and 9 PM.

A marginal to slight risk for severe storms will exist late in the day Wednesday across portions of northeast Oklahoma as a frontal boundary works into the area. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main concerns.

A marginal risk for severe weather is forecast across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas Thursday afternoon and evening. Damaging wind gusts are the primary concern, but large hail may also occur.

Slow moving and training thunderstorms may produce areas of flash flooding late week, especially Thursday. There is a marginal to slight Risk (5-15% chance) of excessive rainfall Wednesday through Friday.

Much cooler weather is expected areawide through Tuesday morning. Warmer and wetter weather returns to the area by mid-week. There will be a limited severe potential and a heavy rain threat.

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Excessive Rainfall and Potential Tropical Cyclone in the South; Severe Thunderstorms in the Midwest

NWS Forecast Office Tulsa, OK