Severe Thunderstorm and Heavy Rainfall Threat Tonight; Heat Continues on Tuesday Across the Eastern U.S.

Severe weather and flash flooding threats continue across the Central Plains and Midwest into tonight. Very large hail, strong tornadoes and damaging winds are expected. An early season heat wave will continue to challenge temperature records across the eastern U.S. through Wednesday. Read More >

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Last Map Update: Mon, May 18, 2026 at 10:22:44 pm CDT

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Severe Storm Outlook Monday

Severe Storm Outlook Tuesday

Severe Storm Timing Mon Night, Tue

Excessive Rainfall Outlook Mon, Tue

Forecast Summary

A conditional risk for severe weather will exist Monday afternoon, with potential for severe weather if storms develop. The chance of severe weather will increase Monday night and early Tuesday morning, with an Enhanced Risk across northwestern Osage and Pawnee counties and a Slight Risk extending eastward to a McAlester to Fayetteville line. A Marginal Risk extends across the rest of northwest and west central Arkansas, as well as southeast Oklahoma.

The potential for severe weather will continue into the daytime Tuesday along and in advance of a cold front. A Slight Risk for severe weather exists along and south of I-44, with a Marginal Risk northwest to a line from Bartlesville to Pawnee.

The better chance for severe storms during the Monday into Tuesday time frame will accompany storms along a cold front, beginning late Monday night/early Tuesday morning and shifting southward into Tuesday afternoon.

A Marginal to locally, Slight Risk of excessive rainfall exists across all of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas Monday night into Tuesday. Rainfall amounts of a half to one inch should be common, with local totals in the 2 to 3 inch range possible.

Thunderstorm chances continue Monday with higher chances Monday night into Tuesday. Severe weather potential likely to develop at times. Above normal temperatures will continue through Monday, with cooler weather toward the early to middle part of next week.

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Severe Thunderstorm and Heavy Rainfall Threat Tonight; Heat Continues on Tuesday Across the Eastern U.S.

NWS Forecast Office Tulsa, OK