Dangerous Fire Conditions in the Southern High Plains; Severe Weather in the Central Plains and Upper Midwest; Late-Season Mountain Snow

Dry and windy conditions will produce dangerous fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains into the Southwest. Severe storms, including very large hail, strong tornadoes, and winds, are expected in the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Heavy late-season snow and record cold temperatures are expected in the northern to central Rockies. Heat is spreading across the eastern U.S.. Read More >

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Last Map Update: Sun, May 17, 2026 at 4:44:38 pm CDT

Watches, Warnings & Advisories

National Weather Service Wichita, Kansas

National Weather Service Springfield, MO

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National Weather Service Little Rock, AR

National Weather Service Fort Worth/Dallas, TX

Wind Advisory

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Severe Storm Outlook Sunday

Severe Storm Outlook Monday

Wind Advisory Monday

Severe Storm Outlook Tuesday

Excessive Rainfall Outlook Tuesday

Forecast Summary

A Marginal risk for severe weather exists this afternoon and evening across the region. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats with any severe storm that develops.

Monday afternoon into Monday night currently looks to feature the best chance for severe weather across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with an Enhanced Risk across western Osage and Pawnee counties and a Slight Risk extending eastward to a McAlester to Eureka Springs line. A Marginal Risk extends across the rest of northwest and west central Arkansas, as well as southeast Oklahoma. All modes of severe weather, including higher end threats, will be possible.

Southerly winds will increase Monday morning with sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph and gusts of 40 to 45 mph likely across portions of northeast Oklahoma. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 9 AM to 9 PM Monday for these areas.

The potential for severe weather will continue into Tuesday along and in advance of a cold front. A Slight Risk for severe weather exists along and south of I-44, with a Marginal Risk northwest to a line from Bartlesville to Pawnee.

A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall exists on Tuesday for areas along and to the southeast of I-44. Average amounts from 0.5 to 1.5 inches should be expected, with localized totals in the 2 to 3 inch range. Localized flash flooding and rises on area rivers may result.

Thunderstorm chances return today with higher chances Monday evening into Tuesday. Severe weather potential likely to develop at times through early next week. Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, with cooler weather toward the early to middle part of next week.

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