Fire Weather Concerns and Severe Thunderstorms through the Weekend

Dry and windy conditions, and some dry thunderstorms and lightning, may support hazardous fire activity in the northern Plains, high southern Plains and the Southwest this weekend. An active severe weather pattern is forecast for portions of the central and southern High Plains into the Upper Midwest through early the part of next week. Damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes are possible. Read More >

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Last Map Update: Fri, May 15, 2026 at 12:30:31 pm CDT

Watches, Warnings & Advisories

National Weather Service Wichita, Kansas

National Weather Service Springfield, MO

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National Weather Service Little Rock, AR

National Weather Service Fort Worth/Dallas, TX

Air Quality Alert

Hazardous Weather Outlook

Low T-Storm Chances Friday, Friday Night

Severe Storm Outlook Sunday

Severe Storm Outlook Monday

Severe Storm Outlook Tuesday

Forecast Summary

Low thunderstorm chances will exist Friday morning as a disturbance moves through the area. A relative lull in the activity is expected during the afternoon, with chances increasing during the evening and overnight due to potential dryline development.

A Marginal risk for severe weather exists Sunday afternoon and evening across most of eastern Oklahoma and northwest and west central Arkansas. A Slight risk exists in far western Osage and Pawnee counties.

Monday afternoon into Monday night currently looks to feature the best chance for severe weather across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, with a 30 percent chance across western Osage and Pawnee counties and a 15 percent chance extending eastward to a Eureka Springs to Fort Smith to Antlers line. All modes of severe weather, including higher end threats, will be possible.

There is a 15 percent chance of severe weather along and north of a line from Atoka to Mena Tuesday. All modes of severe weather will be possible. Severe weather details will depend on the position of a cold front. Changes to the forecast should be expected.

Periods of low shower and thunderstorm chances will exist through Saturday, with more organized and widespread thunderstorms and severe weather potential likely to develop late in the weekend into early next week. Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, with cooler weather toward the early to middle part of next week.

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Fire Weather Concerns and Severe Thunderstorms through the Weekend

NWS Forecast Office Tulsa, OK