NWS Forecast Office Tulsa, OK

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Last Map Update: Tue, Mar 3, 2026 at 5:32:18 am CST

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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Fire Weather Tue

Severe Storm Outlook Tue

Severe Storm Outlook Wed

Severe Storm Outlook Thu

Severe Storm Outlook Fri

Excessive Rainfall Outlook Wed

Forecast Summary

Fire weather concerns will develop by late morning today as strong southerly surface winds become breezy and gusty and temperatures climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Afternoon relative humidity values should remain around or above 40 percent, but dry and cured fine fuels in the area will enhance the fire threat and the strong southerly winds will cause fire spread rates >100 ft/min in most places.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage Tuesday night, perhaps as early as late evening, across portions of northeast Oklahoma and far northwest Arkansas. There is a marginal risk of severe weather mainly north of I-44, where large hail and gusty winds may develop. Showers and thunderstorms likely continue into Wednesday morning.

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase further on Wednesday as a cold front drops southeast into the region. Instability ahead of the front is expected to create a potential for severe storms across parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are the primary hazards with any severe storm, but a low tornado threat will exist as well.

Additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast to move into the region from the west late Thursday night and into Friday morning. There is a marginal risk of severe weather, primarily large hail and gusty winds, with this activity.

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase again Friday as another cold front pushes into the region. Instability ahead of the front could create a potential for severe storms across much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Continue to monitor latest forecasts.

A Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall exists Wednesday and into Wednesday night, mainly for areas southeast of I-44. Monitor forecasts if you live in a flood prone area. Have multiple ways to receive warning information.

An unsettled weather pattern will persist for the remainder of this week and into the early part of the weekend. Periods of both a severe weather and heavy rain threat should be expected.

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