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March 2015
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- Tulsa: No daily records were set or tied this month.
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- Using the radar-derived estimated observed precipitation from the RFCs, rainfall totals for March 2015 ranged from 0.50” in eastern Kay, western Osage, and western Pawnee Counties to near 8” in Carroll, Franklin, and southern Le Flore Counties. The majority of the HSA received 2”-5” of rain this month. There was a mixture of a well-above and well-below normal rainfall across the HSA this month. The greatest deficits occurred northwest of I-44, where 10%-75% of the normal March rainfall was received. Eastern Kay, western Osage, and northern Pawnee Counties received only 10%-25% of the normal March rainfall. On the other hand, all of Carroll County and localized areas of east central OK and west central AR received 150%-200% of the normal March rainfall. The remainder of the area generally received 75%-125% of the normal rainfall this month.
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- The Poteau River near Panama flooded mid-month, reaching moderate flood stage.
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- From snow at the beginning of the month, to flooding mid-month, to tornadoes at the end of the month, March 2015 was active across eastern OK and northwest AR.
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- A strong cold front moved through the region on the 4th, bringing winter weather to all of eastern OK and northwest AR. Ahead of the front, rain developed during the evening of the 3rd and continued through the overnight hours. As the cold front pushed south, the rain transitioned briefly to freezing rain and sleet before finally becoming snow. Around 0.05” or less of ice accumulation was reported across the area. Many locations reported up to 0.50” of sleet before the precipitation transitioned to snow. Sleet and snowfall totals ranged from a trace to 5”, with the majority of the area getting 1”-2”. The highest totals of 3”-4” occurred across Cherokee, Adair, Delaware, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, and Carroll County. 5” of sleet and snow were reported 4 miles north of Pettigrew, AR (Madison Co.). There was a minimum in the snowfall totals along the I-44 corridor from Bristow to Vinita, which includes much of the Tulsa metro area. Rainfall/liquid equivalent totals from the 3rd-4th ranged from a few hundredths to around 1.5”.
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- As a surface low moved north out of Louisiana and into AR, very deep Gulf moisture was drawn north into the HSA. Showers first developed on the 12th, bringing around 0.10” to around 0.50” of rain to southeast OK and northwest/west central AR. A mid-level low over southeast TX then moved north on the 13th, bringing widespread rainfall to eastern OK and northwest AR as it interacted with the unusually high moisture for this time of year. The rain continued on the 14th before moving south of the HSA. Storm total rainfall ranged from only around 0.10” in northwest Osage and eastern Kay Counties, to near 3” in portions of east central OK and west central AR. Most locations south of I-44 received over an inch of rain. A large area of 2.5”-3” of rain fell across Pittsburg County, including McAlester, which measured 2.66” at the Mesonet site. Rises occurred along rivers and streams within the White, Illinois, lower Arkansas, Canadian, and lower Red River Basins. The Poteau River near Panama exceeded Moderate Flood Stage, making this the first time for mainstem flooding in the HSA since October 2014. The Illinois River near Tahlequah exceeded Action Stage, but remained below Flood Stage.
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- The cold front stalled across southeast OK and west central AR and then lifted back north as a warm front to northeast OK and northwest AR. A second round of severe weather broke out during the late afternoon of the 25th near the front as a strong shortwave approached. The initial storms were supercells, which produced several tornadoes from west of Tulsa into northwest AR. As the evening wore on, a cold front surged into the area from the northwest and thunderstorms congealed into a line along the cold front, marching to the south and east during the evening and overnight hours. Many of the storms became severe producing large hail and damaging winds, including softball size hail and winds of 100mph in Tulsa, before exiting southeast Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas. Several tornadoes occurred during this event, leading to one fatality when an EF-2 tornado hit a mobile home community west of Sand Springs. More information on the tornadoes can be found here: www.weather.gov/tsa/weather-event_2015mar25 These storms also brought heavy rain and flash flooding to northeast OK and northwest AR. All but eastern Kay and the far western portions of Pawnee and Osage Counties received 0.25” to over 1.5” of rain. The greatest rainfall occurred over Benton and Carroll Counties, where 1.5” to near 4” of rain fell. Most of the northern half of Carroll Co. received 3”-4” of rain. 1.5” to around 2.5” of rain occurred across eastern Pawnee, southern Osage, far eastern Creek, Tulsa, far northwest Wagoner, and southwest Rogers Counties, with isolated 1.5”-2” amounts elsewhere in northeast OK and northwest AR. However, no mainstem river flooding occurred from this rainfall. Unfortunately, one SUV was swept away when the driver drove into water over Hwy 187 northwest of Eureka Springs, AR in Carroll Co. The driver did not survive. South Fork Creek 6 miles southwest of Webbers Falls, OK (Muskogee Co.) rose to about 12 feet high at a low water crossing according to local residents. A pickup truck with two passengers tried to cross this creek at the low water crossing and was swept off the road. Both passengers drowned.
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- According to the Drought Monitor from March 31, 2015, Extreme Drought (D3) conditions had extended eastward into eastern Kay, western Osage and northern Pawnee Counties in eastern OK. Severe Drought (D2) conditions were occurring across portions of eastern Kay, Osage, Pawnee, northern Creek, and western Washington Counties in eastern OK. Moderate Drought (D1) conditions were present across portions of Osage, Tulsa, Creek, Washington, Nowata, Craig, Rogers, Mayes, Wagoner and western Cherokee Counties in eastern OK. Abnormally Dry (D0), but not experiencing drought, conditions existed across the remainder of eastern OK north of I-40. Abnormally Dry (D0) conditions were also present in Benton, Washington, Madison, and northern Crawford Counties in northwest AR.
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- According to the Oklahoma Climatological Survey, March 2015 was the 45th driest for northeast Oklahoma, the 21st wettest for east central Oklahoma, and the 16th wettest for southeast Oklahoma. Records go back to 1921. For the Water Year-to-date, October 1, 2014-March 31, 2015, northeast Oklahoma ranked as the 47th wettest, east central Oklahoma was the 41st wettest, and southeast Oklahoma was the 44th driest period.
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| Outlook |
- The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for April 2015 (issued March 31, 2015) indicates an enhanced chance for above normal temperatures across all of eastern OK and northwest AR. This outlook also calls for a slightly enhanced chance for above median rainfall across southeast OK and west central AR, with an equal chance for above, near, and below median precipitation elsewhere. This outlook is based on short- and extended-range computer models that show troughing over the western U.S. and ridging over the southeast U.S. for much of April. Mean southwesterly flow and forecast ridging over the south-central U.S. supports an enhanced chance for above normal temperatures. The enhanced rainfall chances are due to the anticipation of an active storm track during the first half of April.
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- The Climate Prediction Center CPC outlook for the 3-month period April-May-June 2015 calls for an equal chance for above, near, and below normal temperatures and precipitation across all of eastern OK and northwest AR (outlook issued March 19, 2015). This outlook is based on both statistical and dynamical forecast tools and considering weak El Niño conditions.
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- According to CPC, current atmospheric and oceanic observations show El Niño conditions. CPC is forecasting a 50% chance for El Niño to continue through the summer. If El Niño conditions do persist through the summer, it is historically likely that conditions will persist into the following winter. El Niño impacts are generally most significant during the cold seasons.
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