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Severe Weather in the Central Plains; Fire Concerns in the Southern High Plains and Southwest; Late-Season Mountain Snow

Severe storms, including large hail, wind, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes, are possible in the central Plains. Dry, windy conditions and lightning from dry thunderstorms may produce hazardous fire conditions in the Southwest and southern High Plains. Late-season snow is expected in the Northwest and the Great Basin. Heat is spreading across the eastern U.S.. Read More >

Recreation Forecasts

Latest Hot Air Balloon Text Forecast

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SXUS43 KUNR 170902
RECUNR

Morning Hot Air Balloon Forecast
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
301 AM MDT Sun May 17 2026

This forecast is information to assist pilots and aircrews for flight planning
and is not to be considered as a sole source of information to meet all
preflight actions. Pilots should receive a complete preflight briefing from a
Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF) or online via 1800wxbrief.com.

...HERE IS THE MORNING HOT AIR BALLOON FORECAST
FOR THE HOT SPRINGS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...

.THIS MORNING...
    Sunrise:                         524 AM.

    Surface Wind Forecast:           5 AM...350/07G14 mph.
                                     7 AM...320/10G17 mph.

    Boundary Layer Wind:             7 AM...030/13 mph. Depth 1200 ft.
                                     9 AM...340/16 mph. Depth 1400 ft.

    RAP Winds (at 6 AM):              250ft...340/06 mph.
                                      500ft...340/06 mph.
                                     1000ft...320/06 mph.
                                     2000ft...290/08 mph.
                                     3000ft...280/11 mph.

    Surface Lifted Index:            6 AM...+1.
                                     9 AM...+3.

    Density Altitude:                5 AM...4332 ft.
                                     7 AM...4641 ft.

    Additional Weather Info:         ceilings around 2000 feet AGL,
                                     unrestricted visibilities,
                                     70 percent chance of precipitation.


.OUTLOOK FOR THIS EVENING...
    Sunset:         814 PM.

    Weather:        ceilings around 6000 feet AGL,
                    unrestricted visibilities.

    Surface Wind:   5 PM...040/22G33 mph.
                    7 PM...050/18G31 mph.

    Boundary Wind:  5 PM...030/33 mph. Depth 4000 ft.
                    7 PM...030/31 mph. Depth 1700 ft.

    RAP Winds (at 5 PM):  250ft...040/16 mph.
                          500ft...040/21 mph.
                         1000ft...040/22 mph.
                         2000ft...040/23 mph.
                         3000ft...040/22 mph.


.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    Surface Wind Forecast:           5 AM...030/22G35 mph.
                                     7 AM...040/24G35 mph.

    RAP Winds (at 6 AM):              250ft...030/08 mph.
                                      500ft...020/18 mph.
                                     1000ft...020/25 mph.
                                     2000ft...020/28 mph.
                                     3000ft...030/24 mph.

    Additional Weather Info:         ceilings around 1000 feet AGL,
                                     unrestricted visibilities,
                                     80 percent chance of precipitation.


This forecast is not routinely updated or amended outside of any scheduled
issuances.

&&

Additional aviation observations and forecasts are available at
aviationweather.gov. You can also read the local aviation forecast discussion
at https://www.aviationweather.gov/fcstdisc.

$$

WFO UNR



                

Note: "Boundary layer" above refers to the planetary boundary layer, or the layer within which the effects of friction are significant (courtesy of the NWS Glossary). The depth of this layer will vary throughout the day, typically reaching its maximum depth in the afternoon and minimum depth overnight.

Link: Vertical Wind Profile for Hot Springs Municipal Airport (courtesy CWSU Seattle)

 

The soundings below show temperature (in red) and dew point (in green) at decreasing pressures (increasing heights) throughout the atmosphere.

Winds (in knots; 1 knot = 1.15078 mph) are shown at right.
Pennants or flags correspond to 50 kt, long barbs represent 10 kt, and short barbs represent 5 kt. Winds are also colored by magnitude.
The shaft points to the direction from which the wind is blowing. More information about wind barbs can be found here.

 

Latest Observed Sounding from Rapid City (courtesy NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research)


Latest Observed Sounding from Rapid City (courtesy NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research)

 

 

Forecast Soundings for the Hot Springs Municipal Airport (click to zoom)

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