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October Heat Wave in California; Tropical Cyclone Possible in the Gulf

Much higher than typical October temperatures will continue across coastal southern California up through the Bay Area and Central Valley through midweek resulting in result in Major to Extreme HeatRisk. A tropical depression is likely to form over the Gulf of America during the middle part of this week with further strengthening possible as it moves northeastward later this week. Read More >

Recreation Forecasts

Latest Hot Air Balloon Text Forecast

We'd like to know how you use this forecast. Please send a note to our Warning Coordination Meteorologist, Aaron Woodward. Thanks!

                        
992
SXUS43 KUNR 062001
RECUNR

Afternoon Hot Air Balloon Forecast
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
201 PM MDT Tue Oct 6 2026

This forecast is information to assist pilots and aircrews for flight planning
and is not to be considered as a sole source of information to meet all
preflight actions. Pilots should receive a complete preflight briefing from a
Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF) or online via 1800wxbrief.com.

...HERE IS THE AFTERNOON HOT AIR BALLOON FORECAST
FOR THE HOT SPRINGS MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...

.THIS AFTERNOON...
    Sunset:                          624 PM.

    Surface Wind Forecast:           4 PM...030/12G22 mph.
                                     6 PM...040/10G21 mph.

    Boundary Layer Wind:             4 PM...360/18 mph. Depth 5200 ft.
                                     6 PM...050/18 mph. Depth 900 ft.

    RAP Winds (approx. 5 PM):              250ft...040/07 mph.
                                           500ft...040/08 mph.
                                          1000ft...030/08 mph.
                                          2000ft...030/07 mph.
                                          3000ft...010/05 mph.

    Surface Lifted Index:            4 PM...+3.
                                     7 PM...+5.

    Density Altitude:                4 PM...6074 ft.
                                     6 PM...5551 ft.

    Additional Weather Info:         clear below 12000 feet AGL,
                                     unrestricted visibilities.


.OUTLOOK FOR TOMORROW MORNING...
    Sunrise:        657 AM.
    Weather:        clear below 12000 feet AGL,
                    unrestricted visibilities.
    Surface Wind:   6 AM...270/05 mph.
                    8 AM...260/05 mph.
    Boundary Wind:  6 AM...290/07 mph. Depth 400 ft.
                    8 AM...270/08 mph. Depth 600 ft.

    RAP Winds (approx. 6 AM):  250ft...290/06 mph.
                               500ft...340/10 mph.
                              1000ft...350/13 mph.
                              2000ft...340/15 mph.
                              3000ft...340/16 mph.

This forecast is not routinely updated or amended outside of any scheduled
issuances.

&&

Additional aviation observations and forecasts are available at
aviationweather.gov. You can also read the local aviation forecast discussion
at https://www.aviationweather.gov/fcstdisc.

$$

WFO UNR



                

Note: "Boundary layer" above refers to the planetary boundary layer, or the layer within which the effects of friction are significant (courtesy of the NWS Glossary). The depth of this layer will vary throughout the day, typically reaching its maximum depth in the afternoon and minimum depth overnight.

Link: Vertical Wind Profile for Hot Springs Municipal Airport (courtesy CWSU Seattle)

 

The soundings below show temperature (in red) and dew point (in green) at decreasing pressures (increasing heights) throughout the atmosphere.

Winds (in knots; 1 knot = 1.15078 mph) are shown at right.
Pennants or flags correspond to 50 kt, long barbs represent 10 kt, and short barbs represent 5 kt. Winds are also colored by magnitude.
The shaft points to the direction from which the wind is blowing. More information about wind barbs can be found here.

 

Latest Observed Sounding from Rapid City (courtesy NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research)


Latest Observed Sounding from Rapid City (courtesy NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research)

 

 

Forecast Soundings for the Hot Springs Municipal Airport (click to zoom)

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