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Scattered Severe Thunderstorms Across the Northern Plains; Fire Weather Concerns in the Western U.S.

Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across central and eastern North Dakota, as well as far northwest Minnesota Saturday (Slight Risk level 2 of 5). Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat. Elevated to critical fire weather conditions will persist through the weekend across the Western U.S. Isolated dry thunderstorms could lead to new fire starts over portions of the northern Rockies. Read More >

Below average flood potential this spring across northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota.

 

Next Update: March 14, 2024


Area Covered

This spring flood and water resource outlook is for the Rapid City Hydrologic Service Area (HSA) which covers northeastern Wyoming and western South Dakota. The main river basins include the Little Missouri, Eastern Powder, Belle Fourche, Grand, Moreau, Cheyenne, Bad, White and Keya Paha River Basins. 

Current Flooding
To obtain the latest watches, warnings, statements, and advisories, go to: https://weather.gov/unr

Temperature and Precipitation
Click here for a listing of ways to obtain past precipitation.

Central Plains

Percent of Normal Precipitation since October 1

Wyoming

Departure from Normal Precipitation

South Dakota

Departure from Normal Precipitation

Normal Precipitation for the Water Year
Percent Normal Precipitation for the Water Year

Current Climate Summary Map
Current Climate Summary Map

Current Climate Summary Map
Current Climate Summary Map

Precipitation Maps from the High Plains Climate Center

 

Snow Cover and Liquid Water Content

Below is modeled snow depth and snow water equivalent from National Operation Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center and automated SNOTEL data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service. 

Modeled Snow Depth
Modeled Snow Water Equivalent

Modeled Snow Analyses from National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

 

Cole Canyon
North Rapid Creek
Blind Park

NRCS Snotel Graphic for Cole Canyon

NRCS Snotel Graphic for North Rapid Creek

NRCS Snotel Graphic for Blind Park

Black Hills and Bear Lodge Mountain SNOTEL Data from the Natural Resources Conservation Service

 

Soil Conditions

Calculated Soil Moisture Anomaly

Modeled Snow Moisture from Climate Prediction Center

 

Lake and River Conditions

Monthly Average Streamflow

Streamflow Mapping provided by the USGS

 

Current Reservoir Data from the Bureau of Reclamation
The graphs below denote reservoir storage levels. The line labeled active is the point where the reservoir is considered "full" which is when the pool elevation is at the top of the active conservation pool. Most reservoirs have additional storage above this level for surplus or to hold flood waters.
Angostura Reservoir, SD
Belle Fourche Reservoir, SD
Deerfield Reservoir, SD

Current Reservoir Data for Angostura Reservoir

Current Reservoir Data for Belle Fourche Reservoir

Current Reservoir Data for Deerfield Reservoir

 
Keyhole Reservoir, WY
Pactola Reservoir, SD
Shadehill Reservoir, SD

Current Reservoir Data for Keyhole Reservoir

Current Reservoir Data for Pactola Reservoir

Current Reservoir Data for Shadehill Reservoir

 

Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

Climate Prediction Center Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks

8 - 14 Day Temperature Outlook
8 - 14 day Precipitation Outlook

 

1 Month Temperature Outlook
1 Month Precipitation Outlook

Monthly Temperature Outlook

Monthly Precipitation Outlook

 

Three Month Temperature Outlook
Three Month Precipitation Outlook

Three Monthly Temperature Outlook

Three Monthly Precipitation Outlook

 

Questions or Comments

If you have any questions or comments about this spring flood and water resource outlook please contact:

Melissa Smith
Service Hydrologist
National Weather Service
300 East Signal Drive
Rapid City, SD  57701
605-341-9271
melissa.smith@noaa.gov