National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Gusty Winds in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast; Atmospheric River to Impact the Northwest

Gusty winds are expected from portions of the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast through the night following the system that brought rain to the area. An atmospheric river will move into the Northwest late today into Saturday bringing moderate to heavy rainfall, mountain snow, windy conditions, and high surf to the area over the weekend. Read More >

Subject: NAM3 EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the Central_Greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_NAM3_20251102_0600
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes Central_Greens are orthogonal to 260 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the Central_Greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Sun 11/02 06Z 0.33 3117  92   5  -3 0.00
Sun 11/02 07Z 0.37 3018  91   6  -3 0.00
Sun 11/02 08Z 0.40 3019  90   6  -3 0.00
Sun 11/02 09Z 0.37 3019  90   6  -3 0.00
Sun 11/02 10Z 0.36 3019  88   7  -3 0.00
Sun 11/02 11Z 0.38 3020  86   8  -3 0.00
Sun 11/02 12Z 0.39 3020  85   9  -3 0.00
Sun 11/02 13Z 0.34 3020  84  11  -3 0.00
Sun 11/02 14Z 0.34 3019  85  12  -3 0.00
Sun 11/02 15Z 0.29 3016  81  11  -3 0.00
Sun 11/02 16Z 0.31 2915  80  11  -3 0.00
Sun 11/02 17Z 0.34 2813  82  10  -3 0.00
Sun 11/02 18Z 0.35 2813  80  10  -3 0.00
Sun 11/02 19Z 0.43 2715  81   9  -3 0.00
Sun 11/02 20Z 0.48 2716  83  10  -3 0.00
Sun 11/02 21Z 0.50 2718  81  10  -2 0.00
Sun 11/02 22Z 0.46 2719  76   9  -1 0.00
Sun 11/02 23Z 0.47 2721  69   9   0 0.00
Mon 11/03 00Z 0.47 2822  66   9   0 0.00
Mon 11/03 01Z 0.48 2823  63  10   0 0.00
Mon 11/03 02Z 0.48 2823  62  11   0 0.00
Mon 11/03 03Z 0.55 2824  63  11   0 0.00
Mon 11/03 04Z 0.58 2724  59  16   0 0.00
Mon 11/03 05Z 0.63 2724  61  18   0 0.00
Mon 11/03 06Z 0.69 2625  71  28   1 0.00
Mon 11/03 07Z 0.71 2624  81  43   1 0.00
Mon 11/03 08Z 0.74 2525  82  59   1 0.00
Mon 11/03 09Z 0.78 2425  80  55   2 0.00
Mon 11/03 10Z 0.88 2428  82  66   1 0.00
Mon 11/03 11Z 0.92 2430  85  71   1 0.00
Mon 11/03 12Z 0.89 2331  81  71   2 0.00
Mon 11/03 13Z 0.89 2332  74  67   2 0.00
Mon 11/03 14Z 0.90 2333  73  52   2 0.00
Mon 11/03 15Z 0.98 2333  73  47   2 0.00
Mon 11/03 16Z 1.07 2332  71  48   2 0.00
Mon 11/03 17Z 1.27 2232  73  37   2 0.00
Mon 11/03 18Z 1.75 2231  69  42   2 0.00
Mon 11/03 19Z 2.17 2130  72  85   1 0.00
Mon 11/03 20Z 1.27 2031  73  90   1 0.00
Mon 11/03 21Z 0.93 2032  73  87   1 0.00
Mon 11/03 22Z 0.90 2133  84  89   1 0.00
Mon 11/03 23Z 1.24 2333  97  95   0 0.08
Tue 11/04 00Z 1.43 2431  96  90   0 0.07
Tue 11/04 01Z 1.52 2531  97  54  -1 0.04
Tue 11/04 02Z 1.48 2631  96  61  -1 0.03
Tue 11/04 03Z 1.30 2629  95  73  -2 0.02
Tue 11/04 04Z 1.16 2731  96  80  -2 0.05
Tue 11/04 05Z 1.05 2730  96  82  -2 0.04
Tue 11/04 06Z 1.00 2729  96  87  -2 0.05
Tue 11/04 07Z 1.06 2831  97  81  -2 0.07
Tue 11/04 08Z 1.06 2831  97  81  -2 0.04
Tue 11/04 09Z 1.14 2933  97  79  -3 0.02
Tue 11/04 10Z 1.14 2934  96  75  -3 0.02
Tue 11/04 11Z 1.10 3035  96  70  -3 0.01
Tue 11/04 12Z 1.11 3035  96  77  -3 0.01
Tue 11/04 13Z 1.12 3034  96  79  -4 0.01
Tue 11/04 14Z 1.16 2932  95  26  -4 0.01
Tue 11/04 15Z 1.31 2928  95  20  -4 0.01
Tue 11/04 16Z 1.61 2927  93  23  -4 0.00
Tue 11/04 17Z 2.48 2926  87  22  -4 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the Central_Greens is: 0.58 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1