National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

An area of rain and thunderstorms extends along a line from Paris to Athens to Franklin, and is moving towards the east-northeast at about 25 MPH. Thunderstorm activity has intensified somewhat over Henderson, Freestone, Limestone, and Robertson Counties, though these thunderstorms remain well below severe limits for now. The main hazards with these thunderstorms will be occasional lightning, and rainfall rates of one-quarter to one-half inch per hour which will lead to ponding of water on roadways. A severe weather threat may develop later this afternoon across our far eastern zones, generally along and east of State Highway 19. The main severe weather threats will likely be damaging wind gusts and small hail.
A dryline will move east across parts of North and Central Texas today. Afternoon high temperatures will climb into the lower 80s with gusty southwest winds 15 to 30 mph. Wind gusts up to 40 mph will also occur. The combination of strong and gusty winds along with humidity values in the teens to lower 30s will result in high to extreme fire weather conditions along and west of Interstate 35/35E. A Red Flag Warning is in effect late this morning through the early evening hours along and west of a line from Mills County to Dallas County to Grayson County. AVOID outdoor burning of any sort Friday afternoon, not just in the watch area, but all across the region. DO NOT toss lit cigarette butts from any moving vehicle. Any fires will ignite and spread quickly!
Another upper-level system will cross the Plains Sunday afternoon and night. There will be a potential for discrete thunderstorm development east of a dryline and south of a warm front, with conditions likely to be favorable for thunderstorms to become severe. Confidence is increasing in this severe weather setup, as models have come into better agreement. Some uncertainty still remains however, especially with regards to timing and placement of the highest threat area. Still, interests in North and Central Texas are advised to monitor weather forecasts closely moving into the weekend.
Model guidance indicates that an upper-level low is likely to move into the Southern Plains by Wednesday next week. Deep Gulf moisture will spread into the Southern Plains ahead of this low, leading to the potential for heavy rainfall. There remains some disagreement in timing and placement of the upper-level low, and thus the heavy rainfall. While it is too early to know exact amounts of rainfall, the latest data suggest that the primary threat towards the middle of next week would likely be heavy rainfall and flooding rather than severe thunderstorms. However, severe weather can rarely be ruled out with a springtime storm system. We will continue to refine the forecast details of this event over the coming days.

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