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Expect a pleasant Fall Saturday with partly sunny skies. High temperatures will climb into the upper 70s and low 80s. Light and variable winds will become more southerly through the day. The chance for rain will remain low, but a few sprinkles will be possible this morning and during the early afternoon hours.
Expect warm conditions to continue over the next 3 to 5 days across North and Central TX. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s with overnight low temperatures in the 50s and 60s. A few urban areas may see low temperatures on Wednesday morning in the low 70s as moisture streams northward. There will be opportunities for rain from Tuesday through Thursday across the along and ahead of a cold front.
We had a warmer and drier than normal September at DFW. North Texas. The mean temperature at DFW was 81.4 degrees which is 3.5 degrees above normal. DFW only recorded 0.89 inches of rain during the month of September which is 1.57 inches below normal. Rainfall was below normal across most of North Texas east of a Killeen to Arlington to Greenville to Sherman line. Some other monthly rainfall amounts across the region include: Arlington: 1.38" Bowie: 3.22" Corsicana 0.21" Dallas Executive Airport 2.38" Dallas Love Field 1.74" Denton 2.53" Fort Worth Alliance 4.47" Fort Worth Meacham 4.14" Gainesville 3.79" McKinney 6.07" Mineral Wells 2.83" Palestine 1.25" Paris 2.87" Sherman Denison 1.88" Terrell 1.95"
We had three fronts that moved through North Texas during the month of September. They each brought brief cool-downs giving us only seven days with below normal temperatures. The average high temperature for the month was 91.0 degrees which is 2.6 degrees above normal. The average low temperature was 71.9 degrees which was 4.4 degrees above normal. This resulted in a mean monthly temperature of 81.5 degrees which is 3.5 degrees above normal. September 2016 was the 14th warmest on record. Records for the official Dallas Fort Worth site go back to September 1, 1898 (119 years). DFW had two 100- degree days (September 19th & 20th) which is one above normal. DFW had 18 100-degree days this year which was the normal number.
We had a warmer and drier than normal September across Central Texas. The mean temperature at Waco was 80.5 degrees which is 2.4 degrees above normal. Waco only recorded 0.72 inches of rain during the month of September which is 2.34 inches below normal.
We had three fronts that moved through Central Texas during the month of September. They each brought brief cool-downs giving Waco ten days with below normal temperatures. The average high temperature for the month was 91.3 degrees which is 1.5 degrees above normal. The average low temperature was 69.6 degrees which was 3.2 degrees above normal. This resulted in a mean monthly temperature of 80.5 degrees which was 2.4 degrees above normal. September 2016 was the 30th warmest on record. Records for the official Waco site go back to December 1, 1901 (115 Septembers).
Rain chances return Tuesday afternoon through Thursday as an upper level trough, dryline and cold front combine to bring possibly strong or severe storms to North and Central Texas. There could potentially be 2 to 3 rounds of rain/storms. The best rain chances are generally along and north of Interstate 20. Details regarding this system will become more clear as we get closer in time to the event so check back for updates. The front will move through on Thursday bringing cooler temperatures by the end of next week.

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Experimental Convective Parameters For North Texas

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth is now offering Experimental Convective Parameters on this website!

The analysis is computed using surface observation data and the latest RUC model for all upper level data.  This is different from the SPC mesoanalysis web page, because no model analysis is used for the surface fields.  This means our analysis is heavily weighted to the latest surface observation. Thus, some small "bulls-eye" type areas may occur if a surface observation is outlying or incorrect.  Bad observations are periodically quality controlled by forecasters and removed.  The advantage to this technique is that our convective parameters will have a higher resolution and be capable of rapid adjustments if the atmosphere is rapidly changing.

The parameters are generated hourly, with the generation process starting around 15 minutes past the hour. The images should be available by 20 past each hour.

We are currently producing the following images: