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Very Heavy Rain, Severe Thunderstorms, and High Flash Flood Risk moves into the Mississippi Valley and Midwest

Thunderstorms, some severe, with very heavy rain have moved into the Mid South and Tennessee Valley today. Flash flooding and severe thunderstorms will be possible from the central Gulf Coast to the Upper Great Lakes. The greatest threat of excessive rains will be in portions of the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valleys. This storm system has a history of producing life threatening flash floods. Read More >

We are able to confirm at LEAST 4 tornadoes from Saturday, April 29th across Van Zandt County. Tornado #1 near Grand Saline has been given a PRELIMINARY rating of EF-0. Tornado #2 around 1 mile east of Canton has been given a PRELIMINARY rating of EF-0. Tornado #3 which is the long track south of Eustace to just west of Canton has been given a PRELIMINARY rating of EF-3. Tornado #4 which is the other long track that started out in Henderson County and tracked just east of Canton and up into Rains County has been given a PRELIMINARY rating EF-3 for the Van Zandt County portion. Path lengths and path widths are still pending on all tornadoes as well. We will have additional survey crews out tomorrow.
A quick warm up is expected Monday and Tuesday with high temperatures in the 80s. Our next system arrives on Wednesday, bringing decent storm chances across the region during the day. There will be enough moisture and instability for scattered storms to develop ahead of the cold front. Nice weather conditions return to North and Central TX. late week and into the next weekend.

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Experimental Convective Parameters For North Texas

The National Weather Service in Fort Worth is now offering Experimental Convective Parameters on this website!

The analysis is computed using surface observation data and the latest RUC model for all upper level data.  This is different from the SPC mesoanalysis web page, because no model analysis is used for the surface fields.  This means our analysis is heavily weighted to the latest surface observation. Thus, some small "bulls-eye" type areas may occur if a surface observation is outlying or incorrect.  Bad observations are periodically quality controlled by forecasters and removed.  The advantage to this technique is that our convective parameters will have a higher resolution and be capable of rapid adjustments if the atmosphere is rapidly changing.

The parameters are generated hourly, with the generation process starting around 15 minutes past the hour. The images should be available by 20 past each hour.

We are currently producing the following images: