Changes to Lower Mississippi River forecast products coming Monday, October 31

The Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center will begin issuing 28-day forecasts for the Lower Ohio and Lower Mississippi Rivers daily starting Monday, October 31, 2016. An official forecast based upon 2 days of forecast rainfall (QPF) and an experimental forecast based upon 16 days of computer model forecast rainfall will be issued by late morning. These forecasts are currently issued weekly on Wednesdays (28-day forecast with 2 days of QPF) and daily for a limited number of locations (28-day forecast with 16 days of QPF).

Popular forecast services such as the Lower Ohio / Lower Mississippi River 5-day Forecast Summary will not change. The official 28-day forecast using 2 days of forecast rainfall will continue to be available. The 28-day forecast using 16 days of raw computer model forecast rainfall will be available in a graphical format at a date that is yet to be determined.

Users of long range river forecast products should be reminded that confidence in river forecasts increases significantly as lead time increases. Forecasts for time periods 2, 3, and 4 weeks into the future are often several feet higher or lower than what will eventually be observed.