National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

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Experimental...Fire Weather Planning forecast for VA Natl Forests
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Blacksburg VA
1146 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...

...Dry weather tonight into Sunday to give way to widespread
rainfall early next week... 

High pressure will control our weather tonight into Sunday. A strong 
cold front will approach Sunday night and then cross the region 
Monday through Tuesday, bringing good coverage of showers and some 
gusty winds. High pressure returns to the area by the latter half of 
the upcoming week.

Minimum relative humidity values will steadily increase to well above 
50 percent by Monday. Light transport winds and a relatively shallow 
mixing heights will create poor dispersion and ventilation conditions 
into Sunday, but improving conditions are expected as winds increase 
ahead of the approaching cold front. Rainfall amounts of one half inch 
east of the Blue Ridge to two inches in the mountains are possible from 
early Monday into Tuesday.

VAZ018>020-WVZ044-220900-
JEFFERSON NATIONAL FOREST Central Zone-
INCLUDING Warm Springs, James River, and New Castle
1146 PM EDT Sat Oct 21 2017

                      Tonight      Sun          Sun Night    Mon          

Cloud cover           MClear       MClear       PCldy        Cloudy       
Precip type           None         None         Showers      Showers      
Chance precip (%)     0            0            20           100          
Min/Max Temp          47           74           50           68           
Max/Min RH %          93           47           98           70           
Wnd20ft2min/Early(mph)Lgt/Var      Lgt/Var      Lgt/Var      SE  5        
Wnd20ft2min/Late(mph) Lgt/Var      S  5         Lgt/Var      SE  6G20     
Precip amount         0.00         0.00         0.00         0.25         
Precip duration                                 0            5            
Precip begin                                    2 AM         Continuing   
Precip end                                      Continuing   Continuing   
Mixing hgt(ft-AGL)                 4020                      4710         
Transport wnd (mph)                SE 14                     SE 45        
Vent rate (mph-ft)                 56280                     211950       
Dispersion(evening)   VERY POOR                 POOR                      
LAL                   1            1            1            1            
Haines Index          3            4            3            2            
ADI early             24 FAIR      26 FAIR      48 GEN GOOD  48 GEN GOOD  
ADI late              1 VERY POOR  43 GEN GOOD  4 VERY POOR  107 VERY GOOD
Max LVORI early       3            7            3            9            
Max LVORI late        5            2            6            3            

REMARKS...None.

.FORECAST FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...Breezy, showers. Lows in the lower
50s. Highs in the mid 60s. Minimum RH 59 percent. West winds
20 to 25 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Lows around 40.
Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH 49 percent. West winds 5 to
10 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid
30s. Highs in the mid 50s. Minimum RH 45 percent. West winds 5 to
10 mph. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 30s.
Highs in the lower 60s. Minimum RH 49 percent. Southwest winds
around 5 mph. 
.FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs in the mid 60s. Minimum RH 56 percent. Southwest winds
around 5 mph. 

$$

.OUTLOOK 8 TO 14 DAYS...
Temperatures below normal.  Precipitation above normal.

$$