Great Falls, MT

Weather Forecast Office

Montana Fire Weather Decision Support Site

Fire Weather Forecast:

949
FNUS55 KTFX 181916
FWFTFX

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for North-Central Montana
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
116 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Rain will continue to fall across North Central and Southwestern
Montana through the evening today, thoroughly soaking most fire
fuels, particularly in an area bounded by Great Falls, Lewistown,
and Havre. Even with the rain, it will remain breezy through the
day today, with wind gusts to 40 mph across much of the area, with
a few gusts to 60 possible in Judith Basin and Fergus Counties.
Behind this rain, high pressure will briefly build into the area
on Thursday, providing a period of dry and tranquil weather before
a cold front pushes into the area Friday afternoon and evening.
High pressure will return for the weekend. Ludwig

MTZ112-191030-
Eastern Glacier/Toole/Central/Eastern Pondera/Liberty-
116 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy.
* Min Temperature.......43-48.
24 hr trend......4 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........87-96 percent.
24 hr trend......5 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. Northwest winds around 25 mph
becoming west 15 to 20 mph after midnight.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................10 percent.

.THURSDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......66-73...58-64 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......9 degrees up...3 degrees up higher elevations.
* Min Humidity..........34-44 percent.
24 hr trend......21 percent down...11 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Min Temperature.......43-48.
24 hr trend......1 degree down.
* Max Humidity..........70-80 percent.
24 hr trend......17 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny. Chance of rain in the
afternoon.
* Max Temperature.......59-67...52-57 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......10 degrees down...4 degrees down higher
elevations.
* Min Humidity..........43-53 percent.
24 hr trend......6 percent up...1 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the upper 30s.
Highs around 60. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs in the upper 60s.
Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the mid
40s. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower
70s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the
mid 70s.

$$

MTZ113-191030-
Hill and Blaine Counties-
116 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Showers in the evening.
Slight chance of thunderstorms through the night. Chance of
showers after midnight.
* Min Temperature.......46-51...39-48 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......7 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........94-100 percent.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. Northwest winds around 30 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. Northwest winds 25 to 30 mph.
* LAL...................3 until 2400, then 2.
* CWR...................50 percent.

.THURSDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......67-72...59-64 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......11 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........41-51 percent...50-58 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......43 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph becoming west
10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low (Above 3000 feet)...mid level
haines 5 moderate (Below 3000 feet).

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Min Temperature.......44-49.
24 hr trend......1 degree down.
* Max Humidity..........77-87 percent.
24 hr trend......13 percent down...23 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...South winds 5 to 10 mph.
Ridges.............South winds 5 to 10 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Max Temperature.......63-69...56-62 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......6 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........47-57 percent.
24 hr trend......8 percent up...1 percent up higher elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low (Above 3000 feet)...mid level
haines 4 low (Below 3000 feet).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the
upper 30s. Highs in the lower 60s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs in the upper 60s.
South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the mid
40s. Highs in the upper 60s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
lower 70s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the
mid 70s.

$$

MTZ114-191030-
Lewis and Clark National Forest Rocky Mountain District-
Rocky Mountain Front-
116 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy then becoming partly cloudy.
* Min Temperature.......40-47.
24 hr trend......6 degrees down...1 degree down higher
elevations.
* Max Humidity..........85-95 percent.
24 hr trend......7 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.THURSDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......66-73...53-63 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......9 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........32-40 percent...43-53 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......24 percent down...40 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Min Temperature.......40-49.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Max Humidity..........65-75 percent.
24 hr trend......26 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......62-69...49-59 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......3 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........26-36 percent...36-46 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......4 percent down...9 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....3 very low.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the upper 30s.
Highs around 60. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the mid
60s. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the lower 60s. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
upper 60s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the
lower 70s.

$$

MTZ115-191030-
Chouteau and Fergus Counties-
116 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of rain after midnight.
* Min Temperature.......46-51.
24 hr trend......6 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........92-99 percent.
24 hr trend......5 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. West winds 30 to 35 mph.
Ridges.............Very windy. West winds 30 to 35 mph.
* LAL...................3 until 2400, then 1.
* CWR...................40 percent.

.THURSDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......68-73...59-66 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......13 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........42-52 percent.
24 hr trend......46 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. West winds around 25 mph decreasing
to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
Ridges.............Windy. West winds around 25 mph decreasing
to 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low (Above 3000 feet)...mid level
haines 4 low (Below 3000 feet).

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly clear.
* Min Temperature.......46-51.
24 hr trend......1 degree down.
* Max Humidity..........69-79 percent...62-70 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......20 percent down...31 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Max Temperature.......66-71...58-67 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......2 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........41-51 percent.
24 hr trend......8 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low (Above 3000 feet)...mid level
haines 4 low (Below 3000 feet).

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the lower 60s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
upper 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the upper
40s. Highs in the mid 60s. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the lower
70s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the
upper 70s.

$$

MTZ116-191030-
Lincoln Ranger District of the Helena National Forest-
116 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy.
* Min Temperature.......37-44.
24 hr trend......2 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........87-97 percent.
24 hr trend......1 percent down...7 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.THURSDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......63-68...54-62 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......9 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........35-40 percent...39-49 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......29 percent down...35 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Min Temperature.......39-46.
24 hr trend......2 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........66-76 percent.
24 hr trend......22 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......61-67...52-61 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......2 degrees down.
* Min Humidity..........33-43 percent.
24 hr trend......4 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....3 very low.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
mid 50s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the
upper 50s. West winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the lower 40s.
Highs in the mid 50s. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
lower 60s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid
60s.

$$

MTZ117-191030-
Central and Eastern Lewis and Clark National Forest Areas-
116 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Showers and slight chance of
thunderstorms in the evening.
* Min Temperature.......41-48.
24 hr trend......6 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........88-97 percent.
24 hr trend......7 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Windy. West winds 25 to 30 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. West winds 25 to 30 mph.
* LAL...................2 until 2400, then 1.
* CWR...................20 percent.

.THURSDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......65-74...55-65 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......14 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........37-47 percent.
24 hr trend......42 percent down...49 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............Windy. West winds around 25 mph decreasing
to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Min Temperature.......40-49.
24 hr trend......2 degrees up.
* Max Humidity..........65-75 percent.
24 hr trend......23 percent down...31 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Sunny.
* Max Temperature.......64-71...54-64 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Min Humidity..........32-42 percent.
24 hr trend......2 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 15 to 20 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of rain. Lows in the
upper 30s. Highs in the upper 50s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the mid 60s.
South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the lower 60s. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
upper 60s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the
lower 70s.

$$

MTZ118-191030-
Helena and Townsend Ranger Districts of the Helena National
Forest-
116 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024

.TONIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of rain in the
evening.
* Min Temperature.......41-47.
24 hr trend......3 degrees down.
* Max Humidity..........84-94 percent.
24 hr trend......9 percent down.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...West winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............West winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.THURSDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......64-72...55-64 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......14 degrees up.
* Min Humidity..........33-43 percent.
24 hr trend......28 percent down...40 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
* Sky/Weather...........Partly cloudy.
* Min Temperature.......42-48.
24 hr trend......1 degree up.
* Max Humidity..........69-79 percent...60-69 percent higher
elevations.
24 hr trend......19 percent down...25 percent down higher
elevations.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
Ridges.............Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.

.FRIDAY...
* Sky/Weather...........Mostly sunny.
* Max Temperature.......64-72...54-64 higher elevations.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Min Humidity..........33-43 percent.
24 hr trend......Unchanged.
* Wind (20 FT).
Lower Elevations...Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to
the west in the afternoon.
Ridges.............West winds 15 to 20 mph.
* LAL...................1.
* CWR...................0 percent.
* High Level Haines.....2 very low.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7......
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows around 40. Highs in the lower
60s. Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid
60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the lower 60s. West winds 15 to 20 mph.
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the
upper 60s.
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the
lower 70s.

$$

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517
FXUS65 KTFX 190600
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1200 AM MDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Aviation Section Updated

.SYNOPSIS...
This afternoon through tonight there will be rain showers across
most of North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. The rain
showers will end in Southwestern Montana this evening and from west
to east across North-central and Central Montana by Thursday
morning. Thursday it will warm up and be dry during most of the day.
Unsettled weather returns to close out the work week continuing
through the weekend. Early next week widespread precipitation looks
to return to North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana.

&&

.UPDATE...

Adjustments were made to the precipitation chances to reflect
current conditions and the latest model guidance. Rain will
continue to slowly migrate to the east as the low moves further
into North Dakota. For the most part, showers will taper off for
locations in Hill, Blaine, and Fergus counties by midnight.
Thursday is still on track to be dry which will allow locations
currently under the Flood Advisory to experience some relief.

Wind speeds have diminished considerably over the past couple
hours leading to an early cancellation of the high wind warning.
Some gusty winds are still possible around the Lewistown Divide
and into the higher elevations of Fergus county, however, no
significant impacts are expected from here on out.

Looking to the overnight hours, there are increasing chances for
fog development along the valleys of southwestern Montana.
Widespread impacts are not expected at this time, however, there
is around a 40-60% chance for localized dense fog developing in
and around West Yellowstone tonight. -thor

&&

.AVIATION...
19/06Z TAF Period

A few lingering light showers are possible for the next few hours
across North Central MT. There`s a 40% for dense fog (1/2SM or less)
at the KWYS terminal starting around 12z. However, there`s a chance
cloud cover limits fog development. Due to the uncertainty, I`ve
kept a TEMPO for LIFR conditions at KWYS this morning. Other
terminals have a low fog potential due to the cloud cover.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Cloud
cover clears moderately around 12z. Lower clouds along the mountains
will keep mountains obscured through 12z. -Wilson

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation
weather and hazard information.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy rainfall continues to affect portions of Central MT as of 7 PM
Wednesday evening. Rainfall reports of 4 to 6 inches are common from
Belt to Lewistown today. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall is
possible in this area. A very good rainfall also extends further
northward up into the Bears Paw Mountains. Thus this entire area is
now under a flood advisory until Noon on Thursday, as minor flood
impacts are possible. There is the potential that flood warnings
might need to be issued for portions of the Lewistown area should
more significant flooding impacts develop because of the additional
expected rainfall this evening.

The area flood watch has been cancelled, as a flood advisory is now
in effect.

The flash flood watch for the burn scar of Horse Gulch has been
cancelled.

Brusda

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 700 PM MDT Wed Sep 18 2024/
Rest of Today... There is a surface low over Petroleum County that
will track east this afternoon before moving north out of Montana by
midnight tonight. This is bringing precipitation to much of North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana this afternoon. The
heaviest precipitation will be in Hill, Blaine, Choteau, Fergus, and
Judith Basin Counties. The precipitation will end by early Thursday
morning from west to east across North-central and Central Montana.
The precipitation will end in Southwestern Montana by 6 pm tonight.
There is a 40 - 80% chance for greater than a half inch of rain in
Hill, Blaine, Choteau, Judith Basin, and Fergus Counties through
midnight tonight. There is a 50% chance for an inch of rain or
greater through midnight tonight from Havre to Fort Benton to
southern Fergus County to northeastern Blaine County. For the other
areas that are east of the I-15 Corridor there is a 20 - 50% chance
for a tenth of an inch of rain or greater through midnight tonight.
For more hydrology information see the HYDROLOGY section below. Due
to the rain and clouds temperatures across North-central, Central,
and Southwestern Montana will struggle to get to 60 degrees this
afternoon. Due to a strong surface pressure gradient and an upper-
level jet it will be windy across the plains of North-central
Montana this afternoon through tonight. There is a 90% chance for
wind gusts of 55 mph or greater in Fergus and Judith Basin Counties
through midnight tonight. There is also a 70% chance for sustained
winds of 40 mph or greater in Fergus and Judith Basin Counties
through midnight tonight. As a result a High Wind Warning remains in
effect for Fergus County and Judith Basin County below 5000 feet
through midnight tonight.

Thursday through Saturday... On Thursday an upper-level ridge moves
over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. As result due
to clearing skies, thursday morning there is a 50% chance for fog to
form in the West Yellowstone area. The upper-level ridge will warm
up temperatures to around seasonal averages and bring dry conditions
to the area for the day on Thursday. Between midnight and 6 AM
Thursday there is 30 - 60% chance for a quarter inch of rain in
Hill, Blaine, Choteau, Judith Basin, and Fergus Counties. On Friday
a weak upper-level trough moves above North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. This will bring isolated showers to the area
with slightly cooler temperatures. On Friday there is a 5 to 30%
chance for a tenth of an inch of rain or greater across North-
central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Saturday the upper-
level trough remains over North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana. This will cool temperatures down to a few degrees below
seasonal averages. There will also be an isolated rain shower across
North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. On Saturday there
is a 5 - 10% chance for a tenth of an inch of rain or greater across
the area.

Sunday through next Wednesday... On Sunday an upper-level ridge
moves over North-central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. Then an
upper-level shortwave will move through the flow. This will bring a
5 - 10% chance for rain to North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. On Monday clusters indicate that there will
be zonal flow over North-central, Central, and Southwestern
Montana. This will keep unsettled weather in place for the area.
On Tuesday and next Wednesday ensemble clusters and deterministic
models begin to diverge. One scenario is for zonal flow to remain
over North- central, Central, and Southwestern Montana. This keeps
the unsettled weather in place for the area. Another scenario is
for an upper- level ridge to move over North-central, Central, and
Southwestern Montana. This would warm up temperatures and bring
dry and calm conditions to the area. The third and final scenario
is for an upper-level trough to begin to move over North-central,
Central, and Southwestern Montana. This would bring cooler
temperatures and widespread precipitation to the area. -IG

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 47 73 48 70 / 30 0 0 0
CTB 46 71 45 64 / 10 0 0 30
HLN 48 74 48 73 / 10 0 0 0
BZN 41 71 42 73 / 30 0 0 10
WYS 32 60 31 64 / 40 10 0 10
DLN 39 68 41 69 / 10 0 0 0
HVR 48 71 47 67 / 100 0 0 10
LWT 46 66 45 67 / 100 0 0 10

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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