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Last Map Update: Tue, Oct. 15, 2019 at 2:26:20 pm CDT

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical Depression Fifteen, located a couple hundred miles east of the Cabo Verde Islands.

A trough of low pressure is producing small area of showers and thunderstorms over the southern Yucatan peninsula, Belize, and northern Guatemala. This disturbance and another tropical system over the eastern Pacific Ocean are expected to produce heavy rains across a large portion of Central America during the next couple of days, which could cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. By late Wednesday, the disturbance is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche and gradually turn northward. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for some development towards the end of the week when the system is located over the western Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A tropical wave located more than 500 miles east of the southern Windward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are expected to become increasingly hostile over the system, and significant development of this system appears unlikely while the disturbance moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

For more information, visit the National Hurricane Center webpage.
Tuesday: Winds become more southwesterly allowing moist gulf air to stream over the region as frontal boundary continues northward into northern LA/TX. In combination with upper-level disturbances aloft, periods of thunderstorms with heavy rain will be possible, especially in the northern portion of the area. More scattered thunderstorm activity is expected further south, closer to the coast. Otherwise, expect highs in the mid to upper 80s, held somewhat in check by rain and expansive cloud coverage.
Overnight: Boundary returns to the region, this time as a cold front. Cold frontal boundary will push through the region overnight, accompanied by a line of thunderstorms. These storms will be capable of producing heavy rain, as well as the chance for a damaging wind gust or two. Winds will become northwesterly behind the front, with some cooler air beginning to filter in.
Wednesday: Cold front continues to push out of the region allowing cooler and drier air to keep pushing into the region out of the north. Some scattered thundershowers will also be a possibility through the morning as the front passes, with precipitation chances decreasing as the day progresses. Clouds largely stick around, and afternoon highs only hit marks in the 70s.

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Hourly Weather Roundup ( )
Location Sky/Weather Temp Dewpt RH Wind Baro Remarks
Lake Charles
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Alexandria
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Beaumont
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De Quincy
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De Ridder
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Fort Polk
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Jasper**
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Jennings
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Lafayette
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Nederland/Port Arthur
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New Iberia
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Opelousas
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Orange
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Patterson
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Pineville
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Note: Temperatures (and thus relative humidity values as well) for Jasper may be inaccurate.
"N/A" or "MISG" will be displayed if values are not available. In the LOCATION column, click on links for a list of recent observations at sites of interest. In the WIND column, VRB is "variable" and G is "gust". Wind speeds are in MPH. In the BARO (pressure) column, values are in inches. In the REMARKS column, HX is "heat index", WCI is "wind chill index", and VSB is "visibility" (if shown).
 

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