Friday's Outlook: Increasing onshore moisture and daytime heating will bring scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms to the Houston/Galveston region. Activity will be hit-or-miss, with the highest rain chances (40-50%) south of I-10. High temperatures will mostly be in the mid-to-upper 80s.
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible Saturday afternoon into Saturday night due to a passing weak disturbance. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather is in place for areas generally north and east of Lake Livingston. Potential impacts include damaging wind gusts (up to 60 mph), with a lower chance of large hail or a brief tornado. Remain weather-aware!
Warm and dry weather will increase the fire risk across Southeast Texas this weekend, with fire weather conditions peaking on Saturday and Sunday. Please take precautions to prevent wildfires, including avoiding outdoor burning and securing tow chains. The current fire danger rating is Low to Moderate, and most counties have established burn bans.
Extended Weather Outlook for southeast Texas, updated October 16, 2025. High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to low 90s through the weekend into the first part of next week. A slight decrease in temperatures is expected mid-week. Rain chances will be in the 20% to 40% range this weekend, then taper off into next week as drier air filters into the area.
Drought conditions continue to expand across SE Texas as of October 14, 2025. Moderate Drought (D1) has expanded into NW Harris County and the Piney Woods, and a pocket of Severe Drought (D2) has developed in parts of Wharton and Colorado counties. Unfortunately, these conditions are likely to remain or worsen as dry weather persists.
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