National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
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Last Map Update: Fri, Jun. 18, 2021 at 4:22:49 pm CDT

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At 400 PM, the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.9 North, longitude 91.2 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 16 mph and a north to north-northeast motion
is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the
system will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast
tonight or early Saturday. A northeastward or east-
northeastward motion across the southeastern United States is
forecast after landfall through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts.
Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the
circulation is gradually becoming better defined, and the system
still is likely to become a tropical or subtropical storm
before landfall. Regardless of its status, little change in strength
is expected through landfall. Weakening is forecast to
begin after the system crosses the coast.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations and Air Force Hurricane Hunter data is 1006 mb (29.71
inches). At 100 PM, the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.3 North, longitude 91.1 West. The system is moving toward the
north near 14 mph, and a north to north-northeast motion
is expected during the next day or so. On the forecast track, the
system will make landfall along the north-central Gulf Coast
tonight or early Saturday. A northeastward motion across the
southeastern United States is likely after landfall through
the weekend.

Satellite data indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased
to near 45 mph with higher gusts. The circulation is
gradually becoming better defined, and a tropical storm is
likely to form over the north-central Gulf of Mexico later today or
tonight.

* Formation chance through 48 hours... high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles east of
the center. A NOAA C-MAN station at the Southwest Pass of the
Mississippi River recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph
and a wind gust of 51 mph at an elevation of 125 feet.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1007 mb
(29.74 inches).
The hot, dry summertime pattern is coming to a close as tropical moisture from Potential Tropical Cyclone 3 overtakes the area. Forecast rainfall totals through the weekend have been ticking downward as the storm's track has continued nudging eastward. Generally, 1-2 inches of rain are expected through Sunday, higher amounts possible with heavy rainshowers/bands.
A Marginal Risk of severe weather is present across east and southeastern portions of Louisiana this afternoon and tonight. The primary threats are short-lived tropical tornadoes and gusty winds brought on by Potential Tropical Cyclone 3.
Rain chances will be on the rise tonight as Potential Tropical Cyclone Three nears the central Gulf states. Winds will be ENE and shifting around as the storm influence takes over. Winds 5 to 10 mph further northwest, increasing to 10 to 15 MPH to the southeast.
Sunshine will peek through at times as dry air from the west mingles with rain and storms from Potential Tropical Cyclone Three. Rain and thunderstorms with patches of sunshine in between will be likely throughout the area, keeping temps in the low to mid 90s. Winds shifting to the north and northwest at 10 to 15 MPH, higher gusts.

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Hourly Weather Roundup ( )
Location Sky/Weather Temp Dewpt RH Wind Baro Remarks
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Lafayette
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Nederland/Port Arthur
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Orange
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Patterson
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Pineville
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"N/A" or "MISG" will be displayed if values are not available. In the LOCATION column, click on links for a list of recent observations at sites of interest. In the WIND column, VRB is "variable" and G is "gust". Wind speeds are in MPH. In the BARO (pressure) column, values are in inches. In the REMARKS column, HX is "heat index", WCI is "wind chill index", and VSB is "visibility" (if shown).
 

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