Weekly Outlook for SIWO

Date: Thursday, April 22, 2026

St. Lawrence Island

Continued northerly winds have brought consolidated and compact pack ice to the north side of Saint Lawrence Island, which is flowing around both the east and west sides. That pack ice has been upgraded to include some first year thick ice (>47 in). The northerly winds have also opened a polynya that begins just south of Gambell and stretches around the entire south and southeast portion of the Island. Despite the increasing daylight, the air mass has been cold enough to freeze the polynya further offshore and develop both new and young ice. Shorefast ice has remained intact most everywhere, though there has been some sections of the outer shorefast ice east of Siknik Training Camp that have broken off and look more unstable in the satellite imagery.

While northerly winds are keeping compacted and consolidated ice 50 to 80 miles off the coast of Shishmaref, the last easterly wind event showed a fair amount of developing leads and cracks within the ice pack despite the ice overall not moving much at all. The shorefast ice within 10 miles of the coast between Wales and Shishmaref appears to remain stable and intact.

This area has not yet started for the 2026 season.

This area has not yet started for the 2026 season.

This area has not yet started for the 2026 season.

Wind Forecast

St. Lawrence Island: 

Today (4/22), winds will be the strongest for the forecast period with gusts out of the N/NE between 35 and 45 kts. Winds will slightly weaken overnight, shifting more easterly by Thursday morning (4/23). Another round of gusty winds are expected during the day, Thursday, with easterly gusts between 30 and 40 kts. Winds weaken to around 20 kts, shifting out of the SE, by late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Winds will gradually weaken throughout the weekend, remaining out of the E/SE. Gusty winds return early Sunday (4/26), out of the NE, with potential gusts between 25 and 35 kts. Winds will weaken back to around 20 kts by Monday (4/27) with winds remaining out of the E/NE through the mid-week.

Wales to Shish:

Today (4/22), winds will be the strongest for the forecast period with gusts out of the N/NE between 30 and 40 kts. Winds will slightly weaken overnight, shifting more easterly by Thursday morning (4/23). Another round of gusty winds are expected during the day, Thursday, with easterly gusts between 20 and 25 kts. Winds weaken to 10 to 15 kts, shifting out of the SE, by late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Winds will gradually weaken throughout the weekend, remaining out of the S/SE. Gusty winds return Sunday afternoon(4/26), out of the E/NE, with potential gusts between 15 and 20 kts. Winds will weaken back to 10 kts, or less, by Monday (4/27) with winds remaining out of the E/NE through the mid-week.

Temperature Forecast

St. Lawrence Island:

Temperatures will be on a slight warming trend over the next day or so, then remain fairly consistent throughout the rest of the period. Highs for today (4/22) will be around 20 degrees with lows in the upper teens tonight. Thursday (4/23), temperatures will warm to the mid 30s for high temperatures with lows around 30 degrees. This trend will continue for the next several days into next week.

Wales to Shishmaref:

Highs for today may get up to around 10 to 15 degrees with lows tonight getting down to the mid-single digits above 0. Temperatures will warm tomorrow (4/23) with highs in the mid 30s and overnight lows in the upper 20s. This trend will continue for the next several days into next week.

Wales to Shishmaref:

Easterly winds will likely disrupt the compact and consolidated ice offshore through the weekend, opening up leads and moving it to the west. The shorefast ice will likely remain intact with these winds, however, the probability of shorefast breaking off is not zero with the offshore winds. 

St. Lawrence Island:

Southeasterly winds are going to change the orientation of polynyas around the islands through Saturday. Expect polynyas to open along the west and north sides of the island. The shorefast ice in these areas should remain stable, but with offshore winds, the probability of shorefast breakoff is low but not zero. The first year medium and thick ice will be pushed away from Gambell and replaced with new and young ice currently south of the island. The first year medium/thick ice southwest of the island will be pushed against the southeast side of the island. 

Next week the predominant easterly winds will keep a small polynya along both the south and north sides of the Island with a large polynya along the west side. First year medium and thick ice will be compacted against the shorefast ice along the east side of the island.