This page provides statistical evaluations for deterministic forecasts issued by the APRFC. The evaluations
compare each 6-hour operational stage forecasts against USGS observations over a 72-hour lead time.
Please note that APRFC forecasts are seasonally dependent and are generally issued during the open water
season from May through October.
Each plot summarizes the performance of a specific forecast point over the last 7-days. Use the first
dropdown menu to select a forecast evaluation point and the second menu to view a forecast rank analysis.
The metrics used to evaluate the forecasts are Mean Error (bias) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE).
Mean Error measures the average direction and magnitude of forecast error, indicating whether forecasts
consistently overestimate (+) or underestimate (-) observations. RMSE also measures the average
magnitude of forecast errors, however places greater emphasis on large errors.
Link to 2025 Open Water Year
