La Crosse, WI

Weather Forecast Office

Drought Expands Further

Summary
River and Stream Flow
Agricultural Impacts
Fire Hazards
Precip & Temp Outlooks
Questions?

Drought Expands Further

Updated on Thursday, October 24, 2024
Next Scheduled Update: Thursday, October 31, 2024

Summary:

From July 24 through October 22 (past 90 days), rainfall totals ranged from 2.53" near Oelwein, IA to 9.82" near Colby, MN. This resulted in rainfall deficits from 1 to 9". The largest deficits (4 to 9") were south of Interstate 94. Temperatures anomalies ranged from 1 to 4°F warmer than normal.

The combination of dryness and above normal temperatures since late July has resulted in moderate (D1) to severe (D2) drought in northeast Iowa and south of Interstate 94 in Wisconsin, moderate (D1) drought in southeast Minnesota, and abnormally dry (D0) north of Interstate 94 in western Wisconsin.

Note: The impacts of any precipitation that fell after 7 AM Tuesday, October 22 will be evaluated next week.

U.S. Drought Monitor Summary:

In the October 22 release of the U.S. Drought Monitor, abnormally dry (D0) to severe (D2) drought were seen across Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin, and moderate dry (D1) to severe (D2) drought in northern Illinois.

Note: The data cutoff for Drought Monitor maps is Tuesday at 7 a.m. Central Daylight Time.

State Drought Statistics


Iowa	Minnesota	Wisconsin

Local Area Affected:

Severe Drought (D2) in all or parts of:

Northeast Iowa: Clayton and Fayette counties.

Moderate (D1) to Severe Drought (D2) in all or parts of:

Northeast Iowa: Allamakee, Chickasaw, Floyd, Howard, and Winneshiek counties.
Western Wisconsin: Crawford and Grant County.

Abnormally Dry (D0) to Severe Drought (D2) in all or parts of:

Northeast Iowa: Mitchell County.

Moderate (D1) Drought in all or parts of:

Southeast Minnesota: Dodge, Fillmore, Houston, Mower, Olmsted, Wabasha, and Winona counties..
Western Wisconsin: Buffalo, La Crosse, Monroe, Richland and Vernon counties.

Abnormally Dry (D0) to Moderate Drought (D1) in all or parts of:

Western Wisconsin: Adams, Jackson, Juneau, and Trempealeau counties.

Abnormally Dry (D0) in all or parts of:

Western Wisconsin: Clark and Taylor counties.

State/Local Government Actions:

No known actions are taking place in northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and western Wisconsin.

Climatological Summary:

From July 24 through October 22 (past 90 days), rainfall totals ranged from 2.53" near Oelwein, IA to 9.82" near Colby, MN. This resulted in rainfall deficits from 1 to 9". The largest deficits (4 to 9") were south of Interstate 94. Temperatures anomalies ranged from 1 to 4°F warmer than normal.

The combination of dryness and above normal temperatures since late July has resulted in moderate (D1) to severe (D2) drought in northeast Iowa and south of Interstate 94 in Wisconsin, moderate (D1) drought in southeast Minnesota, and abnormally dry (D0) north of Interstate 94 in western Wisconsin.

Precipitation Departures from July 24 through October 22, 2024.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a weekly collaborative effort between several federal agencies including NOAA/NWS, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Details and explanations of the Drought Monitor can be found at:

U.S. Drought Monitor

The categories of drought are defined as follows:

Abnormally Dry (D0) - Going into drought: short-term dryness slowing planting, growth of crops or pastures; fire risk above average. Coming out of drought: some lingering water deficits; pastures or crops not fully recovered.

Moderate Drought (D1) - Some damage to crops and pastures; fire risk high; streams, reservoirs, or wells low, some water shortages developing or imminent, voluntary water use restrictions requested.

Severe Drought (D2) - Crop or pasture losses likely; fire risk very high; water shortages common; water restrictions imposed.

Extreme Drought (D3) - Major crop/pasture losses; extreme fire danger; widespread water shortages or restrictions.

Exceptional Drought (D4) - Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; exceptional fire risk; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells, creating water emergencies.

Potential Evapotranspiration Rates:

Iowa

Disaster & Drought Assistance:

Other Drought Web Sites:

Minnesota DNR
ReadyWisconsin (Part of the Wisconsin Emergency Management Team)

Drought Plans:

River and Stream Flow Conditions:

As of the morning of October 22, rivers and stream flows range from below to normal in northeast Iowa, southeast Minneosta, and western Wisconsin.

NOTE: This is time-sensitive and conditions could change. Updated river and streamflow conditions can be found via links to the right.

Hourly and forecast river stages out to 90 days can be found at:

NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)

Additional Current stream and river stages may be viewed at:

USGS WaterWatch

An interactive table of sites that are at or near record flows can be found at:

USGS WaterWatch

Agricultural Impacts:

Here are the latest Agricultural Statistics Service reports for Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin issued on October 21, 2024.

Iowa

Row crop harvest remained ahead of average as Iowa’s farmers had 6.8 days suitable for fieldwork. Field activities included harvesting corn and soybeans, fall tillage, and applying manure and fertilizer. Dry conditions resulted in field and equipment fires being reported during harvest. For the second straight week, most of the State received no measurable precipitation.

Topsoil moisture condition rated 41 percent very short, 40 percent short, 19 percent adequate and 0 percent surplus.
Subsoil moisture condition rated 31 percent very short, 46 percent short, 23 percent adequate and 0 percent surplus.

Nearly all of Iowa’s corn crop reached the mature stage or beyond. Harvest of the corn for grain crop reached 68 percent complete, 5 days ahead of last year and 10 days ahead of the five-year average. Farmers in south central Iowa remained behind farmers in the rest of the State with just 50 percent of their crop harvested. Moisture content of field corn being harvested was 15 percent.

Soybeans harvested reached 91 percent, 1 week ahead of last year and almost 2 weeks ahead of the average. Farmers in northern Iowa, as well as west central and east central, have already harvested 94 percent or more of their soybeans.

Pasture condition fell another 8 percentage points to 22 percent good to excellent this week. Ponds and creeks in pastures are drying up as pastures go dormant due to the dry conditions. Some cattle are being turned onto corn stalk fields.

Minnesota

Minnesota farmers averaged 6.6 days suitable for fieldwork the week. Harvest, fall tillage, and fertilizer applications continued. Livestock were doing well with no issues reported.

Topsoil moisture supplies were rated 31 percent very short, 42 percent short, 27 percent adequate, and 0 percent surplus.
Subsoil moisture supplies were rated 20 percent very short, 37 percent short, 42 percent adequate, and 1 percent surplus.

Corn was 98 percent mature. Corn harvested for grain reached 66 percent, 4 days ahead of last year and over a week ahead of the 5-year average, with moisture content averaging 16 percent.

Soybean harvest was coming to an end at 95 percent, 11 days ahead of last year and 2 weeks ahead of the five-year average.

Potato harvest was virtually complete at 97 percent and sugarbeet harvest reached 90 percent. Sunflower harvest was at 39 percent and condition was rated at 72 percent good to excellent.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin had 6.7 days suitable for fieldwork statewide for the week. Harvest progress continued for corn and soybeans despite rainfall spanning from Northwest Wisconsin to Southeast Wisconsin. Warmer than normal temperatures in northern Wisconsin assisted in corn drying. Harvest was nearly complete for corn silage, potatoes, and vegetables while the cranberry harvest continued. Other field activities included spreading manure, fall tillage and seeding winter wheat.

Topsoil moisture condition rated 30 percent very short, 39 percent short, 31 percent adequate and 0 percent surplus.
Subsoil moisture condition rated 16 percent very short, 40 percent short, 44 percent adequate and 0 percent surplus.

Ninety-four percent of the corn crop was mature. Corn for grain was 44 percent harvested, 13 days ahead of last year and 12 days ahead of the 5-year average. Moisture content of corn harvested for grain was 19 percent. Corn for silage harvest was 96 percent complete. Condition increased 2 percentage points to 63 percent good to excellent.

Soybean harvest was 93 percent complete, 4 weeks ahead of last year and average. Winter wheat planting was 91 percent complete, 1 week ahead of last year and 10 days ahead of average. Sixty-two percent of the winter wheat crop has emerged. Winter wheat condition was rated 75 percent good to excellent.

Potato harvest was 98 percent complete. Fall tillage was 41 percent complete. Pasture and range condition was rated 26 percent good to excellent, down 6 percentage points from last week.

NASS Soil Moisture Conditions in Northeast Iowa, Southeast Minnesota, & Western Wisconsin as of October 20, 2024
State	Region	Soil	Percent of Moisture
State	Region	Soil	Very Short	Short	Adequate	Surplus
Iowa	North-Central	Top Soil	48	38	14	0
	North-Central	Sub Soil	33	48	19	0
	Northeast	Top Soil	43	38	19	0
	Northeast	Sub Soil	32	44	23	0
Minnesota	State	Top Soil	31	42	27	0
Minnesota	State	Sub Soil	20	37	42	1
Wisconsin	Southwest	Top Soil	55	39	6	0
	Southwest	Sub Soil	16	44	40	0
	West-Central	Top Soil	42	35	23	0
	West-Central	Sub Soil	28	42	30	0
	Central	Top Soil	16	44	40	0
	Central	Sub Soil	6	39	55	0
	North-Central	Top Soil	18	20	62	0
	North-Central	Sub Soil	9	29	62	0

Soil moisture supply measures how much moisture is present in cropland topsoil during the week. Soil moisture is reported as a percentage. The categories very short, short, adequate, and surplus must add up to 100%.

Very Short - Soil moisture supplies are significantly less than what is required for normal plant development. Growth has been stopped, or nearly so, and plants are showing visible signs of moisture stress. Under these conditions, plants will quickly suffer irreparable damage.

Short - Soil dry. Seed germination and/or normal crop growth and development would be curtailed.

Adequate - Soil moist. Seed germination and/or crop growth and development would be normal or unhindered.

Surplus - Soil wet. Fields may be muddy and will generally be unable to absorb additional moisture. Young developing crops may be yellowing from excess moisture.

The map below lists the Agricultural Districts in southeast Minnesota, western Wisconsin, and northeast Iowa.

Additional information on agriculture impacts may be viewed from the:

Fire Danger Hazards:

As of the morning of October 22, fire danger was very high (fires start easily started and spread at a very high rate) in central Wisconsin. Fire danger was high (fires start easily started and spread at a high rate) in southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Finally, fire danger was low (fires are not easily started) to moderate (fires start easily started and spread at a moderate rate) in northeast Iowa.

NOTE: This is time-sensitive and conditions could change from day to day. Fire conditions can change drastically on drier, windy days. Updated DNR fire conditions can be found via links to the right.

Citizens should always check with local officials in their area before undertaking any outside burning. Citizens are liable for damages and suppression costs of any wildfire they may start.

Description of Fire Danger Ratings

For updated DNR Fire Conditions consult the following Web Sites:

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a drought index that is specifically related to fire potential. The KDBI is broken into four categories which indicate the susceptibility of ground fuels to fire danger. Below are the four categories and a brief description of each.

Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KDBI)
KBDI Value	Description of Fire Potential
0 to 200	Low - Wet with little danger of fire initiation
201 to 400	Moderate - Drying occurring with some fire danger
401 to 600	High - Ground cover is dry and will burn readily
601 to 800	Extreme - Dead and live fuels will burn readily

KBDI and Dead Fuel Moisture data can be found through the:

Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS)

Burn Bans:

Iowa

Precipitation/Temperature Outlooks:

From October 24 through October 29, temperatures and precipitation will be near- to above-normal. During this time frame, daily average temperatures range from 42 to 45°F, and precipitation averages around 4 tenths of an inch.

From October 30 through November 5 (8-14 day outlook), the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting enhanced chances of above-normal temperatures (60-70%) and precipitation (40-50%). The normal daily average temperatures for this period range from 39 to 44°F and the normal precipitation is around a half inch.

From November 2024 through January 2025, the Climate Prediction Center has an enhanced chances for warmer than normal (33-40%) in northeast Iowa and southwest Wisconsin, and equal chances of warmer-, near-, and colder-than-normal elsewhere in the Upper Mississippi River Valley. The forecast for precipitation is equal chances of drier-, near-, and wetter-than-normal for the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Seasonal temperatures gradually cool. They gradually get colder from the 30s in November to 10 to 20°F by January. Seasonal precipitation ranges from 4 to 6".

Below are the seasonal outlooks for the next year.