La Crosse, WI

Weather Forecast Office

Severe Drought (D2) Develops in Northeast Iowa

Summary
River and Stream Flow
Agricultural Impacts
Fire Hazards
Precip & Temp Outlooks
Questions?

Severe Drought (D2) Develops in Northeast Iowa

Updated on Thursday, October 10, 2024
Next Scheduled Update: Thursday, October 17, 2024

Summary:

From August 10 through October 8, rainfall totals ranged from 1.24" at Oelwein, IA to 7.72" near Ettrick, WI. This resulted in rainfall deficits from 2 to 5". The largest deficits were in northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota. Temperatures anomalies ranged from 1 to 3°F warmer than normal. This resulted in abnormally dry (D0) to severe (D2) drought in northeast Iowa and abnormally dry (D0) to moderate (D1) drought along Interstate 90 in southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Note: The impacts of any precipitation that fell after 7 AM Tuesday, October 8 will be evaluated next week.

U.S. Drought Monitor Summary:

In the October 8 release of the U.S. Drought Monitor, abnormally dry (D0) to severe (D2) drought were seen in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, and from southwest Minnesota and northeast Iowa east southeast into northern Illinois. Elsewhere, in Iowa, Minnesota,and Wisconsin, it was abnormally dry (D0).

Note: The data cutoff for Drought Monitor maps is Tuesday at 7 a.m. Central Daylight Time.

State Drought Statistics


Iowa	Minnesota	Wisconsin

Local Area Affected:

Moderate (D1) to Severe Drought (D2) in all or parts of:

Northeast Iowa: Chickasaw and Fayette counties.

Moderate (D1) Drought in all or parts of:

Northeast Iowa: Floyd County.

Abnormally Dry (D0) to Severe Drought (D2) in all or parts of:

Northeast Iowa: Allamakee, Clayton, and Winneshiek counties.

Abnormally Dry (D0) to Moderate Drought (D1) in all or parts of:

Northeast Iowa: Howard and Mitchell counties.
Southeast Minnesota: Dodge, Olmsted, and Wabasha counties.
Western Wisconsin: Adams, Grant, Juneau, and Richland counties.

Abnormally Dry (D0) in all or parts of:

Southeast Minnesota: Fillmore, Houston, Mower, and Winona counties.
Western Wisconsin: Buffalo, Clark, Crawford, Jackson, La Crosse, Monroe, Taylor, Trempealeau, and Vernon counties.

State/Local Government Actions:

No known actions are taking place in northeast Iowa, southeast Minnesota, and western Wisconsin.

Climatological Summary:

From August 10 through October 8, rainfall totals ranged from 1.24" at Oelwein, IA to 7.72" near Ettrick, WI. This resulted in rainfall deficits from 2 to 5". The largest deficits were in northeast Iowa and southeast Minnesota. Temperatures anomalies ranged from 1 to 3°F warmer than normal. This resulted in abnormally dry (D0) to severe (D2) drought in northeast Iowa and abnormally dry (D0) to moderate (D1) drought along Interstate 90 in southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

Precipitation Departures from August 10 through October 8, 2024.

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a weekly collaborative effort between several federal agencies including NOAA/NWS, U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Details and explanations of the Drought Monitor can be found at:

U.S. Drought Monitor

The categories of drought are defined as follows:

Abnormally Dry (D0) - Going into drought: short-term dryness slowing planting, growth of crops or pastures; fire risk above average. Coming out of drought: some lingering water deficits; pastures or crops not fully recovered.

Moderate Drought (D1) - Some damage to crops and pastures; fire risk high; streams, reservoirs, or wells low, some water shortages developing or imminent, voluntary water use restrictions requested.

Severe Drought (D2) - Crop or pasture losses likely; fire risk very high; water shortages common; water restrictions imposed.

Extreme Drought (D3) - Major crop/pasture losses; extreme fire danger; widespread water shortages or restrictions.

Exceptional Drought (D4) - Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; exceptional fire risk; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells, creating water emergencies.

Potential Evapotranspiration Rates:

Iowa

Disaster & Drought Assistance:

Other Drought Web Sites:

Minnesota DNR
ReadyWisconsin (Part of the Wisconsin Emergency Management Team)

Drought Plans:

River and Stream Flow Conditions:

As of the morning of October 9, rivers and stream flows range from much-below to normal in western Wisconsin, from below to near normal in southeast Minnesota, and near normal in northeast Iowa.

NOTE: This is time-sensitive and conditions could change. Updated river and streamflow conditions can be found via links to the right.

Hourly and forecast river stages out to 90 days can be found at:

NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)

Additional Current stream and river stages may be viewed at:

USGS WaterWatch

An interactive table of sites that are at or near record flows can be found at:

USGS WaterWatch

Agricultural Impacts:

Here are the latest Agricultural Statistics Service reports for Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin issued on October 7, 2024.

Iowa

Iowa experienced another week of dry and windy conditions which allowed farmers 6.7 days suitable for fieldwork. Corn and soybean harvest continued to be the primary field activities for the week. Combine and other equipment fires were reported as weather conditions increased the risk of such fires.

Topsoil moisture condition rated 22 percent very short, 42 percent short, 36 percent adequate and 0 percent surplus.
Subsoil moisture condition rated 16 percent very short, 44 percent short, 39 percent adequate and 1 percent surplus.

Corn mature reached 90 percent, 6 days behind last year but 5 days ahead of the five-year average. Corn harvested for grain reached 22 percent, 2 days behind last year but 1 day ahead of normal. Moisture content of field corn being harvested for grain was 18 percent. Corn condition rated 77 percent good to excellent. Soybeans dropping leaves reached 93 percent, 1 day ahead of last year and 5 days ahead of the five-year average. Soybeans harvested
reached 58 percent this week, 4 days ahead of last year and 1 week ahead of the average. Iowa farmers were able to harvest 31 percent of the State’s soybean crop during the week ending October 6, 2024. Soybean condition rated 76 percent good to excellent.

Pasture condition continued to fall and rated just 38 percent good to excellent this week, a decrease of 6 percentage points. Livestock water resources continue to be a concern.

Minnesota

Warm, dry conditions gave Minnesota farmers an average of 6.7 days suitable for fieldwork the week. Harvest, fall tillage, and fertilizer applications kept farmers busy in their fields.

Topsoil moisture supplies were rated 17 percent very short, 40 percent short, 42 percent adequate, and 1 percent surplus.
Subsoil moisture supplies were rated 12 percent very short, 28 percent short, 58 percent adequate, and 2 percent surplus.

Corn in the dent stage reached 97 percent. Eighty-two percent of the crop was mature, 10 days behind last year but slightly ahead of the 5-year average. Corn harvested for grain reached 15 percent with moisture content averaging 19 percent. Corn condition was 63 percent good to excellent. Corn for silage harvest reached 92 percent.

Soybeans coloring reached 98 percent and leaves were dropping at 91 percent. Harvest reached 68 percent, 6 days ahead of last year and 1 week ahead of the 5-year average.

Dry edible beans harvested reached 86 percent. Potato harvest reached 77 percent. Sugarbeet harvest reached 21 percent, and condition was 80 percent good to excellent. Sunflower harvest was at 5 percent and condition was rated at 72 percent good to excellent.

Wisconsin

Wisconsin had 6.8 days suitable for fieldwork statewide for the week. Another warm and dry week that led to advances in soybean harvest and corn maturity. Soil moisture supplies continued to decline. Harvest was ongoing for soybeans, corn, cranberries, potatoes, and vegetables for processing. Other field activities included spreading manure, fall tillage and seeding winter wheat.

Topsoil moisture condition rated 16 percent very short, 39 percent short, 45 percent adequate and 0 percent surplus.
Subsoil moisture condition rated 11 percent very short, 35 percent short, 53 percent adequate and 1 percent surplus.

Corn in the dent stage was 95 percent. Seventy percent of the corn crop was mature, 1 day behind last year but 1 day ahead of the 5-year average. Corn for grain was 10 percent harvested. Corn for silage harvest was 80 percent complete, 1 day ahead of last year and 5 days ahead of average. Corn condition declined to 61 percent good to excellent.

Soybeans coloring reached 97 percent and 90 percent of soybeans were dropping leaves. The soybean harvest was 61 percent complete, 12 days ahead of last year and 2 weeks ahead of average. Soybean condition was at 59 percent good to excellent, down 5 percentage points from last week.

Winter wheat planting was 63 percent complete, 2 days ahead of last year and average. Thirty-six percent of the crop has emerged. The fourth cutting of alfalfa hay was 92 percent complete.

Potato harvest was 86 percent complete. Fall tillage was 22 percent complete. Pasture and range condition was rated 38 percent good to excellent, down 7 percentage points from last week.

NASS Soil Moisture Conditions in Northeast Iowa, Southeast Minnesota, & Western Wisconsin as of October 7, 2024
State	Region	Soil	Percent of Moisture
State	Region	Soil	Very Short	Short	Adequate	Surplus
Iowa	North-Central	Top Soil	18	55	27	0
	North-Central	Sub Soil	12	54	34	0
	Northeast	Top Soil	19	52	29	0
	Northeast	Sub Soil	12	54	34	0
Minnesota	State	Top Soil	17	40	42	1
Minnesota	State	Sub Soil	12	28	58	2
Wisconsin	Southwest	Top Soil	25	51	24	0
	Southwest	Sub Soil	15	40	45	0
	West-Central	Top Soil	22	42	36	0
	West-Central	Sub Soil	14	36	50	0
	Central	Top Soil	0	24	76	0
	Central	Sub Soil	2	24	71	3
	North-Central	Top Soil	22	42	36	0
	North-Central	Sub Soil	13	29	58	0

Soil moisture supply measures how much moisture is present in cropland topsoil during the week. Soil moisture is reported as a percentage. The categories very short, short, adequate, and surplus must add up to 100%.

Very Short - Soil moisture supplies are significantly less than what is required for normal plant development. Growth has been stopped, or nearly so, and plants are showing visible signs of moisture stress. Under these conditions, plants will quickly suffer irreparable damage.

Short - Soil dry. Seed germination and/or normal crop growth and development would be curtailed.

Adequate - Soil moist. Seed germination and/or crop growth and development would be normal or unhindered.

Surplus - Soil wet. Fields may be muddy and will generally be unable to absorb additional moisture. Young developing crops may be yellowing from excess moisture.

The map below lists the Agricultural Districts in southeast Minnesota, western Wisconsin, and northeast Iowa.

Additional information on agriculture impacts may be viewed from the:

Fire Danger Hazards:

As of the morning of October 9, fire danger was high (fires start easily started and spread at a high rate) in southeast Minnesota, moderate (fires start easily started and spread at a moderate rate) to high from southwest into central Wisconsin, and low (fires are not easily started) in northeast Iowa.

NOTE: This is time-sensitive and conditions could change from day to day. Fire conditions can change drastically on drier, windy days. Updated DNR fire conditions can be found via links to the right.

Citizens should always check with local officials in their area before undertaking any outside burning. Citizens are liable for damages and suppression costs of any wildfire they may start.

Description of Fire Danger Ratings

For updated DNR Fire Conditions consult the following Web Sites:

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a drought index that is specifically related to fire potential. The KDBI is broken into four categories which indicate the susceptibility of ground fuels to fire danger. Below are the four categories and a brief description of each.

Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KDBI)
KBDI Value	Description of Fire Potential
0 to 200	Low - Wet with little danger of fire initiation
201 to 400	Moderate - Drying occurring with some fire danger
401 to 600	High - Ground cover is dry and will burn readily
601 to 800	Extreme - Dead and live fuels will burn readily

KBDI and Dead Fuel Moisture data can be found through the:

Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS)

Burn Bans:

Iowa

Precipitation/Temperature Outlooks:

From October 10 through October 15, temperatures will be near- to above-normal and precipitation will be below normal. During this time frame, daily average temperatures range from 48 to 53°F, and precipitation averages around a half inch.

From October 16 through October 22 (8-14 day outlook), the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is forecasting enhanced chances of above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation. The normal daily average temperatures for this period range from 46 to 51°F and the normal precipitation is around a half inch.

From November 2024 through January 2025, the Climate Prediction Center has equal chances of warmer-, near-, and colder-than-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation for the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Seasonal temperatures gradually cool. They gradually get colder from the lower to mid-30s in November to the mid- to upper teens by January. Seasonal precipitation ranges from 3 to 5" along and north of Interstate 94, and from 4 to 6" across the remainder of the area.

Below are the seasonal outlooks for the next year.