Ice Buildup May Bring Increased Water Levels on the Missouri River Near Bismarck/Mandan

Flooding

Use this tab to monitor latest river levels along the Missouri River near Bismarck/Mandan

Hydrographs

Missouri River at Bismarck	Missouri River at Mandan	Heart River near Mandan	Apple Creek near Menoken

Radar/Photos

USGS Camera on Missouri River near Bismarck

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Latest Hydrologic Outlook

 

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FGUS73 KBIS 240244
ESFBIS
NDC001-007-011-015-021-025-029-031-033-037-041-043-045-047-051-053-
055-057-059-061-065-083-085-087-089-093-103-105-260200-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
744 PM MST Thu Dec 23 2021

...FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK...

This Flood and Water Resources Outlook is for the Missouri and James
River basins of North Dakota, covering the period of 25 December
through 25 March, 2022. This outlook is a part of the normal release
of flood probabilities, on or about, the fourth Thursday of each
month.

The following message has four sections. The first provides some
text on the highlights of this outlook and conditions affecting
the local hydrology. The second section gives the current and
normal/historical risks of flooding as determined by the Ensemble
Streamflow Forecast model of the National Weather Service. The third
section gives the current probabilities for reaching flood stage at
the listed forecast locations. And finally, the fourth section
covers the risk of the river sites falling below the listed stages.

...Flood Outlook Highlights...
Drought continues for most of the river basin, except in limited
portions of south central North Dakota. Below average precipitation
has fallen north, while near average precipitation has fallen south
for the month of December. Climatologically, this is not extremely
significant as little precipitation is normally expected for
December anyways. Furthermore, recent cold temperatures have allowed
the rivers to freeze or begin to freeze over. The outlook over the
next couple weeks is for below average temperatures, which will
result in further icing over most remaining open water spots at all
rivers. Therefore, any potential flood threat will hold off until
the spring thaw and the risk of widespread flooding remains at or
below historically normal levels for this time of year.

...Current Conditions...
Drought conditions remain as near average to below average
precipitation has fallen in the past month. In addition, cooler
weather has allowed the rivers to freeze or begin to freeze over.
With recent cold temperatures, ice sheets have begun to float
downstream the Missouri River and jam up. While this has led to
river rises in certain locations such as at the Bismarck gauge, low
river levels to begin with have allowed rising river levels to peak
well below flood stage. A below average temperature forecast over
the next couple weeks will further increase ice thickness and areal
coverage where any open water remains.

...Weather Outlook...
All of the short-term CPC outlooks, 6-10, 8-14, and 3-4 week
experimental favor below average temperatures with an equal chance
designation for moisture. On the other hand, the longer term one
month and three month outlooks hold the region in the equal chances
category for above normal, near normal, or below normal temperatures
and precipitation.

In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stage
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is greater than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.

...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 12/25/2021 - 03/25/2022

: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Pipestem
Pingree 11.0 13.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:James River
Grace City 12.0 14.0 15.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
LaMoure 14.0 16.0 18.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Missouri River
Williston 22.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cannonball River
Regent 22.0 24.0 26.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Cannonball River
Breien 10.0 20.0 23.0 : <5 18 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Beaver Creek
Linton 12.0 14.0 16.0 : <5 12 <5 6 <5 <5
:Little Muddy River
Williston 10.0 12.0 14.0 : <5 24 <5 10 <5 <5
:Little Missouri River
Marmarth 18.0 23.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
Medora 15.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 7 <5 <5 <5 <5
Watford City 20.0 24.0 30.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Knife River
Manning 15.0 17.0 20.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Spring Creek
Zap 14.0 18.0 20.0 : <5 5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Knife River
Hazen 21.0 24.0 25.0 : <5 6 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Heart River
Mandan 17.0 23.0 28.0 : <5 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Apple Creek
Menoken 15.0 16.0 17.0 : 22 27 17 23 <5 <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period:
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem
Pingree 4.7 4.7 5.1 5.2 5.6 6.3 6.4
:James River
Grace City 4.0 4.1 4.9 5.7 6.2 6.7 7.2
LaMoure 6.9 7.0 7.4 7.9 8.3 9.4 11.2
:Missouri River
Williston 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.3 16.2
:Cannonball River
Regent 4.9 5.0 5.6 6.3 6.8 7.2 7.8
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh 1.1 1.1 2.5 3.2 3.8 4.4 4.9
:Cannonball River
Breien 2.9 3.2 4.5 5.9 6.8 7.6 8.1
:Beaver Creek
Linton 5.0 5.4 5.7 6.1 6.5 7.1 7.5
:Little Muddy River
Williston 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.8 5.2 5.6
:Little Missouri River
Marmarth 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 2.3 3.5 5.1
Medora 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.7 2.5 4.4 5.8
Watford City -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.7 0.1 1.8 2.8
:Knife River
Manning 5.8 5.8 5.8 6.3 7.0 7.3 8.8
:Spring Creek
Zap 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.7 6.0 6.8 7.6
:Knife River
Hazen 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.4 5.8 11.7 13.9
:Heart River
Mandan -0.1 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.8 2.6 4.1
:Apple Creek
Menoken 6.0 6.2 6.7 8.6 14.6 16.3 16.6

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for
the valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period:
LOCATION 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Pipestem
Pingree 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7
:James River
Grace City 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0
LaMoure 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9 6.9
:Missouri River
:Cannonball River
Regent 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
:Cedar Creek
Raleigh 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0
:Cannonball River
Breien 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7
:Beaver Creek
Linton 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2
:Little Muddy River
Williston 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
:Little Missouri River
Marmarth 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0
Medora 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4
Watford City -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1
:Knife River
Manning 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.7
:Spring Creek
Zap 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
:Knife River
Hazen 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3
:Heart River
Mandan -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6 -1.6
:Apple Creek
Menoken 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range
of probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range
planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic
forecasts are part of the National Weather Service`s Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Visit our web site weather.gov/bis for more weather and water
information.

The next outlook will be issued by the end of January.

$$

Telken

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