National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Extreme Heat and Excessive Rainfall This Week

A significant heat wave is underway for the Intermountain West, Northern Plains, and Upper Great Lakes, peaking in intensity through midweek and lingering across parts of the Northern Plains and Midwest until this weekend. In southwest Texas, excessive rainfall may bring a risk for potentially life-threatening flash and arroyo flooding through Thursday. Read More >

The Hydrologic Ensemble Forecasting System (HEFS) is a probabilistic forecasting tool currently under development by the National Weather Service (NWS).  The goals of HEFS are to provide hydrologic forecasts including an analysis of “probable outcomes” and to minimize biases in the atmospheric models and in the hydrologic models.

Below is information about HEFS: