COZ205-162315-
COZ205-162315-
Colorado River Headwaters-
104 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Wrn Colorado and Ern Utah
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
104 AM MDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.DISCUSSION...High pressure remains anchored overhead keeping
temperatures above normal. Moisture continues to saturate the
high and this will keep a threat of daily afternoon 
thunderstorms. Gusty outflow winds and lightning remain the
main threats but some of the stronger storms will be capable
of moderate to heavy rainfall rates. Recent burn scars will
be vulnerable for debris flows if these storms with heavy 
rainfall move through. This threat remains through the weekend. 

...GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...
...THE SMOKE DATA IS CALCULATED FROM AN AVERAGE AT 6000 FEET MSL...


.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40%). Isolated showers until 
                    1200, then scattered showers and thunderstorms. 
Chc of lightning....30 percent. 
Max temperature.....80-90 F. 
Min humidity........17-27%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph becoming 
                    upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph by 1100.
CWR.................40 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Northeast 10 to 15 mph. 
Mixing Height.......2500 ft AGL until 1000, then 11000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....West 5 mph until 1200, then north. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Good after 1200. 

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40%). Scattered showers and 
                    isolated thunderstorms until 2400. 
Chc of lightning....20 percent. 
Min temperature.....53-63 F. 
Max humidity........59-74%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 3 to 6 mph. 
                    Localized gusts up to 20 mph in the evening. 
CWR.................30 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....East 5 to 10 mph. 
Mixing Height.......7500 ft AGL until 2000, then 1000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....South 5 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor. 

.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30%) until 1200, then partly 
                    cloudy (40-50%). Isolated showers until 
                    1200, scattered showers and thunderstorms after 
                    1200. 
Chc of lightning....30 percent. 
Max temperature.....80-90 F. 
Min humidity........20-30%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph becoming 
                    upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph by 1100.
CWR.................40 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....East 5 to 10 mph. 
Mixing Height.......1500 ft AGL until 0900. 11500 ft AGL after 
                    1000. 
Transport Winds.....Northeast 5 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Good after 1200. 

.FORECAST FOR DAY 3 THROUGH 7...
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 51-61. Highs 79-89. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 52-62. Highs 80-90. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms. Lows
51-61. Highs 79-89. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Numerous showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 50-60. Highs 76-86. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers with numerous thunderstorms.
Lows 50-60. Highs 73-83.