COZ205-051045-
COZ205-051045-
Colorado River Headwaters-
1234 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Wrn Colorado and Ern Utah
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1234 PM MDT Mon May 4 2026

.DISCUSSION...

Showers and thunderstorms will bring wetting rains and snow to 
the region through Wednesday. Gusty outflow winds and lightning 
will be the primary concerns, as elevated relative humidities will
keep widespread critical fire weather conditions suppressed. 
Warmer and drier conditions with gusty winds will return localized
critical fire weather to the Four Corners area later this week.

...GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...
...THE SMOKE DATA IS CALCULATED FROM AN AVERAGE AT 6000 FEET MSL...


.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Numerous showers and 
                    scattered thunderstorms until 2400, then 
                    scattered showers. 
Chc of lightning....50 percent. 
Min temperature.....29-39 F. 
Max humidity........78-93%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 3 to 6 mph. 
                    Localized gusts up to 25 mph in the evening. 
CWR.................60 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....West 20 to 25 mph increasing to 20 to 30 mph 
                    after midnight. 
Mixing Height.......6500 ft AGL until 2000, then 2000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 5 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Fair until 2100, then poor. 

.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Isolated thunderstorms 
                    until 1200. Numerous showers. Scattered 
                    thunderstorms after 1200. 
Chc of lightning....50 percent. 
Max temperature.....48-58 F. 
Min humidity........34-44%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    west 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Localized 
                    gusts up to 30 mph. 
CWR.................70 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....West 20 to 30 mph. 
Mixing Height.......8500 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph until 1200, then west 15 
                    to 20 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Very good after 1200. 

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Numerous showers until 
                    2400. Isolated thunderstorms. Snow showers 
                    after 2400. 
Chc of lightning....20 percent. 
Min temperature.....22-32 F. 
Max humidity........82-97%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 3 to 6 mph. 
                    Localized gusts up to 30 mph decreasing to 20 
                    mph after midnight. 
CWR.................80 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....West 20 to 30 mph. 
Mixing Height.......5500 ft AGL until 2100, then 2500 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....West 5 to 10 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 2100, then poor. 

.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Numerous snow showers 
                    and isolated thunderstorms until 1200, then 
                    scattered thunderstorms and snow showers. 
Chc of lightning....50 percent. 
Max temperature.....36-46 F. 
Min humidity........32-42%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    north 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Localized 
                    gusts up to 30 mph. 
CWR.................70 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Northwest 10 to 15 mph. 
Mixing Height.......8000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....Northwest 5 to 10 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Good after 1200. 

.FORECAST FOR DAY 3 THROUGH 7...
.THURSDAY...Warmer. Mostly clear. Lows 17-27. Highs 52-62. Winds
less than 15 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows
31-41. Highs 58-68. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 34-44. Highs 56-66. West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 
25 mph. 
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Lows 30-40. Highs 54-64. 
.MONDAY...Mostly clear. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows
30-40. Highs 60-70.