
Dry and windy conditions will produce dangerous fire weather conditions across the southern High Plains into the Southwest. Severe storms, including very large hail, strong tornadoes, and winds, are expected in the central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Heavy late-season snow and record cold temperatures are expected in the northern to central Rockies. Heat is spreading across the eastern U.S.. Read More >
COZ205-181145-
COZ205-181145-
Colorado River Headwaters-
143 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026
Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Wrn Colorado and Ern Utah
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
143 PM MDT Sun May 17 2026
.DISCUSSION... Thunderstorms are expected to continue through the
evening. Strong outflow gusts are possible with storms. Rain and
high elevation snow is possible tonight through tomorrow morning
as a low pressure system moves across the region. With the
exception of some very localized areas, critical fire weather
conditions stay out of the forecast for at least the next few
days. This is due to increased relative humidity values, and
weaker afternoon wind gusts beginning Tuesday.
...GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...
...THE SMOKE DATA IS CALCULATED FROM AN AVERAGE AT 6000 FEET MSL...
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Numerous showers until
2400. Isolated thunderstorms. Scattered showers
after 2400.
Chc of lightning....20 percent.
Min temperature.....34-44 F.
Max humidity........73-88%.
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 3 to 6 mph.
Localized gusts up to 25 mph.
CWR.................60 percent.
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 35 to 45 mph.
Mixing Height.......6500 ft AGL until 2000, then 1000 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph until 2400, then south.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Showers and isolated
thunderstorms until 1200, then numerous showers
and scattered thunderstorms.
Chc of lightning....50 percent.
Max temperature.....46-56 F.
Min humidity........46-56%.
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 4 to 8 mph becoming
west 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. Localized
gusts up to 30 mph.
CWR.................80 percent.
15K Ft MSL Winds....South 25 to 35 mph becoming southwest 20 to 25
mph in the afternoon.
Mixing Height.......1000 ft AGL until 0800, then 5500 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900, then good.
.MONDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70%) until 2400, then partly
cloudy (40-50%). Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms until 2400.
Chc of lightning....20 percent.
Min temperature.....25-35 F.
Max humidity........72-87%.
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 3 to 6 mph.
Localized gusts up to 30 mph in the evening.
CWR.................20 percent.
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 20 to 30 mph.
Mixing Height.......4000 ft AGL until 2000, then 1500 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....West 5 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50%). Isolated snow showers
until 1200, scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms after 1200.
Chc of lightning....20 percent.
Max temperature.....50-60 F.
Min humidity........32-42%.
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley winds 4 to 8 mph. Localized
gusts up to 25 mph in the afternoon.
CWR.................10 percent.
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 20 to 30 mph.
Mixing Height.......3000 ft AGL until 1000, then 8000 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southwest 5 mph until 1200, then 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Very good after 1200.
.FORECAST FOR DAY 3 THROUGH 7...
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Lows 26-36. Highs 53-63. Winds less than 15 mph.
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 28-38. Highs 57-67. Winds less than 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows
29-39. Highs 60-70. West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to
30 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 33-43. Highs 65-75.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows
36-46. Highs 70-80.