COZ205-171100-
COZ205-171100-
Colorado River Headwaters-
1248 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Wrn Colorado and Ern Utah
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1248 PM MDT Sat May 16 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR COLORADO FIRE
WEATHER ZONES 203 BELOW 8000 FEET, 205 BELOW 8000 FEET, 290 AND
292, AS WELL AS UTAH FIRE WEATHER ZONE 490... 

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the
afternoon, favoring areas north of I-70. Dry surface levels and
wind gusts of 30-40 mph will lead to critical fire weather 
conditions for central-eastern Utah and central-western Colorado,
where Red Flag Warnings are in effect through 8PM. Showers and 
storms could create strong outflow winds with gusts in excess of 
45 mph. Increased moisture, widespread precipitation, and cooler
temperatures arrive starting tomorrow.

...GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...
...THE SMOKE DATA IS CALCULATED FROM AN AVERAGE AT 6000 FEET MSL...


...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (50-60%). Scattered showers and 
                    isolated thunderstorms. 
Chc of lightning....20 percent. 
Min temperature.....35-45 F. 
Max humidity........75-90%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 3 to 6 mph. 
                    Localized gusts up to 35 mph in the evening. 
CWR.................40 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 30 to 40 mph. 
Mixing Height.......10000 ft AGL until 2000, then 1000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....West 10 to 15 mph until 2400, then southwest 5 
                    mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Very good until 2100, then poor. 

.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70%). Isolated thunderstorms 
                    until 1200. Numerous showers. Scattered 
                    thunderstorms after 1200. 
Chc of lightning....50 percent. 
Max temperature.....56-66 F. 
Min humidity........31-41%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph becoming 
                    upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph by 1100.
CWR.................60 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 25 to 35 mph increasing to 30 to 40 
                    mph in the afternoon. 
Mixing Height.......2000 ft AGL until 0900, then 8500 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph until 1200, then 20 to 25 
                    mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Very good after 1200. 

.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Numerous showers until 
                    2400. Isolated thunderstorms. Scattered showers 
                    after 2400. 
Chc of lightning....20 percent. 
Min temperature.....32-42 F. 
Max humidity........73-88%. 
20-foot winds.......Upslope/upvalley 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    downslope/downvalley 3 to 6 mph by sunset.
CWR.................70 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 30 to 40 mph. 
Mixing Height.......5000 ft AGL until 2000, then 1000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....West 5 to 10 mph until 2400, then southeast. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor. 

.MONDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Isolated thunderstorms 
                    until 1200. Showers. Scattered thunderstorms 
                    after 1200. 
Chc of lightning....50 percent. 
Max temperature.....46-56 F. 
Min humidity........43-53%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. 
                    Localized gusts up to 35 mph. 
CWR.................90 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....South 25 to 35 mph becoming southwest 20 to 25 
                    mph in the afternoon. 
Mixing Height.......1500 ft AGL until 0800. 6000 ft AGL after 0900. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900, then good. 

.FORECAST FOR DAY 3 THROUGH 7...
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Lows 24-34. Highs 47-57. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 24-34. Highs 54-64. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 28-38. Highs 58-68. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows
29-39. Highs 63-73. 
.SATURDAY...Mostly clear. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 33-43. Highs 67-77.