COZ205-162315-
COZ205-162315-
Colorado River Headwaters-
115 AM MDT Sat May 16 2026

Fire Weather Planning Forecast for Wrn Colorado and Ern Utah
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
115 AM MDT Sat May 16 2026

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR COLORADO
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 203 BELOW 8000 FEET, 205 BELOW 8000 FEET, 290
AND 292, AS WELL AS UTAH FIRE WEATHER ZONE 490... 

.DISCUSSION...Moisture is moving in aloft in the form of mid level
cloudiness and virga early this morning. This moisture will help
fuel thunderstorm activity mainly north of I-70 this afternoon. 
Dry low layers will help create Red Flag conditions today as well
as create conditions favorable for very strong outflow winds near
showers or virga. As more moisture and lift arrives by Sunday...
precipitation is more likely to reach the ground help push 
humidity levels upward into early next week.  

...GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR ANY SHOWERS
OR THUNDERSTORMS...
...THE SMOKE DATA IS CALCULATED FROM AN AVERAGE AT 6000 FEET MSL...


...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR GUSTY WINDS, LOW HUMIDITY AND DRY FUELS FOR COLORADO
FIRE WEATHER ZONE 205 BELOW 8000 FEET... 

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50%). Isolated showers and 
                    thunderstorms after 1200. 
Chc of lightning....20 percent. 
Max temperature.....69-79 F. 
Min humidity........13-23%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    west 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 35 mph in the 
                    afternoon. 
CWR.................10 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 20 to 30 mph. 
Mixing Height.......1000 ft AGL until 0900. 12000 ft AGL after 
                    1000. 
Transport Winds.....South 5 to 10 mph until 1200, then southwest 20 
                    to 25 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Excellent after 1200. 

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70%). Scattered showers and 
                    isolated thunderstorms. 
Chc of lightning....20 percent. 
Min temperature.....35-45 F. 
Max humidity........73-88%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 3 to 6 mph. 
                    Localized gusts up to 35 mph in the evening. 
CWR.................20 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 25 to 35 mph. 
Mixing Height.......8500 ft AGL until 2000, then 1000 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....West 10 to 15 mph until 2400, then northwest 5 
                    mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 2100, then poor. 

.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80%). Isolated thunderstorms 
                    until 1200. Numerous showers. Scattered 
                    thunderstorms after 1200. 
Chc of lightning....50 percent. 
Max temperature.....58-68 F. 
Min humidity........29-39%. 
20-foot winds.......Downslope/downvalley winds 4 to 8 mph becoming 
                    southwest 10 to 15 mph in the afternoon. 
                    Localized gusts up to 30 mph. 
CWR.................50 percent. 
15K Ft MSL Winds....Southwest 20 to 30 mph. 
Mixing Height.......3000 ft AGL until 1000, then 9500 ft AGL. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph until 1200, then 15 to 20 
                    mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Very good after 1200. 

.FORECAST FOR DAY 3 THROUGH 7...
.MONDAY...Cooler. Showers and scattered thunderstorms. Lows
32-42. Highs 43-53. West winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 
35 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 24-34. Highs 46-56. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly clear. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 24-34. Highs 54-64. Winds less than 15 mph. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Isolated showers and thunderstorms.
Lows 28-38. Highs 60-70. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly clear. Isolated showers. Lows 31-41. Highs
65-75.