National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Surf Forecast for Oahu  Issued: 04/09/2020 03:05:28 AM HST

Surf Discussion for Oahu  Issued: 04/08/2020 02:58:46 PM HST


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SRFHFO

SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
305 AM HST THU APR 9 2020

OAHU-
305 AM HST THU APR 9 2020

Surf along north facing shores will be 5 to 7 feet today, rising to 7 to 10 feet Friday.

Surf along west facing shores will be 3 to 5 feet today, building to 5 to 7 feet Friday.

Surf along south facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Friday.

Surf along east facing shores will be 1 to 3 feet through Friday.

Outlook through Thursday April 16: Surf along north and west facing shores will build through Friday then subside on Saturday. A moderate and rather short-period north- northwest swell is expected early next week. A longer period northwest swell arriving Tuesday night could produce surf near the High Surf Advisory threshold on Wednesday. Surf along south facing shores will remain rather small, but a swell from the Tasman Sea may produce a small boost in surf along south facing shores over the weekend. Surf will remain small along east facing shores through early next week, then gradually rise starting mid-week.

Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.


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SRDHFO

COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
258 PM HST WED APR 8 2020

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 PM when Pat Caldwell is available.

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
04/08
4NW1157SAME7-10WSAME
4NW824SAME
THU
04/09
4NW1157DOWNMED7-10LVSAME
5NNW1169UPMED
FRI
04/10
7NNW12812UPMED8-12SWUP
SAT
04/11
5NNW12610DOWNLOW9-13NWSAME
2S1434UPLOW
SUN
04/12
7NNW1068UPLOW11-16NNEUP
2S1334DOWNLOW
MON
04/13
4NNW1147DOWNLOW11-16ENEUP

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOpen ocean swell height measured from trough to crestin feet located 20 nautical miles offshore
DMNT DIRDominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 compasspoints
DMNT PDDominant period in seconds
H1/3Significant wave height in the surf zone
H1/10Average height in the highest one-tenth waves in the surfzone
HGT TENDHeight tendency of swell (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBProbability of occurrence (valid values: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOpen water wind speed measured in knots located20 nautical miles offshore
WIND DIRWind direction in 16 compass points
SPD TENDWind speed tendency (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Compass & Swell Shadow Lines for Hawaii

Oahu Surf Climatology

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY.. Nearby sources keeping north shores active.

DETAILED:. Mid Wednesday on northern shores has breakers from 310-330 degrees at levels below the April average. Heights are expected to trend downward from this direction into Thursday as surf rises more from 330-350 degrees.

A low pressure system occluded to the NW of Hawaii a week ago and has maintained a long-lived, wave-producing pattern for Hawaii into 4/8. See the latest NWS State Forecast Discussion regarding the evolving central north Pacific weather patterns influencing Hawaiis winds and skies through the weekend.

Sunday into early Tuesday 4/5-7, a short fetch aimed at Hawaii over the 305-330 degree band from the long-lived, nearby low. NOAA NW Hawaii buoys 51001 and 51101 over the past 24 hours to mid day 4/8 showed the 10-14s band remaining about the same though the dominant direction has slowly veered from 305 to 325 degrees. The remote Kuril Islands source that produced the dominant size locally 4/6-7 from the WNW is fading under these buoys as the nearby source takes over.

The PacIOOS/CDIP Waimea, Oahu buoy over the past 24 hours to mid day 4/8 shows a drop in the 13-15 second bands, related to the drop from the Kurils WNW source, while the 8-13 second bands centered from the NW remain steady. The shorter-period NW event should trend down on Thursday as the dominant surf turns from NNW.

The long-lived low pressure system to the NNW of Hawaii began to lift out to the NNE 4/7 and intensify. A wide, long fetch of near gales with pockets to moderate gales aimed highest just west of Hawaii beyond 1000 nm. The fetch is predicted to fade out by early Thursday.

Surf is predicted to trend up from 320-345 degrees mid Thursday to levels near the April average by late afternoon. The peak of the event is estimated for mid Friday from 330-360 degrees above average. Heights should hold at least average to Saturday morning, then steadily decline from 330-360 degrees into Sunday as a new event picks up.

Models show a compact, weak low pressure forming within 1000 nm NNW of Hawaii Friday 4/10. It is modelled to intensify as it tracks ENE to a position NE of Hawaii by Sunday. The proximity of strong breezes within 300 nm of Hawaii Saturday morning should have the shorter-wave period bands from this source arrive first on Sunday from 325-345 degrees. Heights should climb to near the April average by Sunday PM 4/12. The event should peak on Monday morning with moderate wave periods of 12-14s at levels above the April average from 340-360 degrees.

Mid Monday on eastern shores has breakers from the trade wind belt of 50-90 degrees at an east side minimum. Low conditions are expected to continue through the period while the trade wind belt to the E to NE of Hawaii out 1000 nm remains mostly moderate or less.

Mid Monday on southern shores has breakers from 140-220 degrees at a seasonal minimum. Low surf is predicted to continue on Thursday.

A low-end gale east of New Zealand formed last Friday 4/3. It had less than a day aimed at Hawaii then began aiming more towards the west well away from Hawaii 4/4-5. Only a small event under low probability is expected locally, picking up on Saturday 4/11 from 175-195 degrees. It should linger on Sunday 4/12 and fade by 4/13.

Into the long range, models show low surf potential from the mid latitudes of the southern hemisphere with south shores of Hawaii at a minimum 4/14-18. Hints of more low pressure areas SW to SE of New Zealand within 4/9-14, that could see better odds for surf locally within 4/17-24. It is too early for specifics.

For northern shores, the N short-period swell from the nearby source arriving locally 4/12-13 should drop rapidly 4/14. Models show a wintry low pressure pattern west of the Date Line 4/11-12 that should bring WNW to NW surf above the April average within 4/15-17.

Windswell from the trade wind belt of 50-90 degrees is expected to remain below average 4/14-15 but could trend up 4/16-17 to near average.

Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence.

The next Collaborative Forecast will be updated Friday, April 9.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See https://www.weather.gov/hfo/marine

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY.. Nearby sources keeping north shores active.

DETAILED:. Mid Wednesday on northern shores has breakers from 310-330 degrees at levels below the April average. Heights are expected to trend downward from this direction into Thursday as surf rises more from 330-350 degrees.

A low pressure system occluded to the NW of Hawaii a week ago and has maintained a long-lived, wave-producing pattern for Hawaii into 4/8. See the latest NWS State Forecast Discussion regarding the evolving central north Pacific weather patterns influencing Hawaiis winds and skies through the weekend.

Sunday into early Tuesday 4/5-7, a short fetch aimed at Hawaii over the 305-330 degree band from the long-lived, nearby low. NOAA NW Hawaii buoys 51001 and 51101 over the past 24 hours to mid day 4/8 showed the 10-14s band remaining about the same though the dominant direction has slowly veered from 305 to 325 degrees. The remote Kuril Islands source that produced the dominant size locally 4/6-7 from the WNW is fading under these buoys as the nearby source takes over.

The PacIOOS/CDIP Waimea, Oahu buoy over the past 24 hours to mid day 4/8 shows a drop in the 13-15 second bands, related to the drop from the Kurils WNW source, while the 8-13 second bands centered from the NW remain steady. The shorter-period NW event should trend down on Thursday as the dominant surf turns from NNW.

The long-lived low pressure system to the NNW of Hawaii began to lift out to the NNE 4/7 and intensify. A wide, long fetch of near gales with pockets to moderate gales aimed highest just west of Hawaii beyond 1000 nm. The fetch is predicted to fade out by early Thursday.

Surf is predicted to trend up from 320-345 degrees mid Thursday to levels near the April average by late afternoon. The peak of the event is estimated for mid Friday from 330-360 degrees above average. Heights should hold at least average to Saturday morning, then steadily decline from 330-360 degrees into Sunday as a new event picks up.

Models show a compact, weak low pressure forming within 1000 nm NNW of Hawaii Friday 4/10. It is modelled to intensify as it tracks ENE to a position NE of Hawaii by Sunday. The proximity of strong breezes within 300 nm of Hawaii Saturday morning should have the shorter-wave period bands from this source arrive first on Sunday from 325-345 degrees. Heights should climb to near the April average by Sunday PM 4/12. The event should peak on Monday morning with moderate wave periods of 12-14s at levels above the April average from 340-360 degrees.

Mid Monday on eastern shores has breakers from the trade wind belt of 50-90 degrees at an east side minimum. Low conditions are expected to continue through the period while the trade wind belt to the E to NE of Hawaii out 1000 nm remains mostly moderate or less.

Mid Monday on southern shores has breakers from 140-220 degrees at a seasonal minimum. Low surf is predicted to continue on Thursday.

A low-end gale east of New Zealand formed last Friday 4/3. It had less than a day aimed at Hawaii then began aiming more towards the west well away from Hawaii 4/4-5. Only a small event under low probability is expected locally, picking up on Saturday 4/11 from 175-195 degrees. It should linger on Sunday 4/12 and fade by 4/13.

Into the long range, models show low surf potential from the mid latitudes of the southern hemisphere with south shores of Hawaii at a minimum 4/14-18. Hints of more low pressure areas SW to SE of New Zealand within 4/9-14, that could see better odds for surf locally within 4/17-24. It is too early for specifics.

For northern shores, the N short-period swell from the nearby source arriving locally 4/12-13 should drop rapidly 4/14. Models show a wintry low pressure pattern west of the Date Line 4/11-12 that should bring WNW to NW surf above the April average within 4/15-17.

Windswell from the trade wind belt of 50-90 degrees is expected to remain below average 4/14-15 but could trend up 4/16-17 to near average.

Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence.

The next Collaborative Forecast will be updated Friday, April 9.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See https://www.weather.gov/hfo/marine

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NWS Forecaster and NCEI Pat Caldwell

Additional Resources:

Waimea Buoy Mokapu Point Buoy Kaumalapau SW Lanai Buoy Barbers Point, Kalaeloa Buoy Pauwela, Maui Hilo Bay Buoy Kaneohe Bay Buoy Hanalei Kauai Buoy Pearl Harbor Entrance
Buoy 51001 Buoy 51101 Buoy 51000 Buoy 51100 Buoy 51002 Buoy 51003 Buoy 51004

Latest North Pacific Surface Analysis

Upcoming tides for select Hawaii locations

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