National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Surf Forecast for Oahu  Issued: 12/08/2019 03:42:56 AM HST

Surf Discussion for Oahu  Issued: 12/05/2019 02:40:16 PM HST


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SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
342 AM HST SUN DEC 8 2019

OAHU-
342 AM HST SUN DEC 8 2019

HIGH SURF WARNING FOR EAST FACING SHORES
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES

Surf along north facing shores will be 12 to 16 feet this morning, lowering to 8 to 12 feet this afternoon, lowering to 6 to 10 feet tonight, then rising to 10 to 14 feet Monday.

Surf along west facing shores will be 2 to 3 feet this morning, rising to 3 to 5 feet this afternoon, rising to 4 to 7 feet tonight, then rising to 6 to 9 feet Monday.

Surf along east facing shores will be 12 to 16 feet this morning, lowering to 8 to 12 feet this afternoon, lowering to 5 to 8 feet tonight, then lowering to 3 to 5 feet Monday.

Surf along south facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Monday.

Outlook through Sunday December 15: The current north-northeast swell will gradually lower today through Monday. A new northwest swell is expected to arrive later today, then gradually build tonight and Monday. Advisory level surf will likely affect north and west facing shores late Monday through mid week, before a much larger northwest swell arrives. This larger northwest swell is expected to arrive Wednesday, likely pushing surf to warning levels along north and west facing shores during the day Wednesday and holding at warning levels through Thursday and possibly into Friday. This swell is expected to lower Friday and Friday night, with yet another large, possibly advisory level, northwest swell arriving over the weekend. No other significant swells are expected.

Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.


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COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
240 PM HST THU DEC 5 2019

This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 PM when Pat Caldwell is available.

FORECAST
DATE
SWL
HGT
DMNT
DIR
DMNT
PD
H
1/3
H
1/10
HGT
TEND

PROB
WIND
SPD
WIND
DIR
SPD
TEND
1PM
12/05
2N1024DOWN13-19ESAME
5NE723DOWN
FRI
12/06
7N141216UPMED11-16EDOWN
5NNE824UPLOW
SAT
12/07
5N12810DOWNLOW4-6VRBSAME
8NNE171620UPLOW
4NNE946DOWNLOW
SUN
12/08
8NNE141418DOWNLOW4-6VRBSAME
MON
12/09
3NNE1246DOWNLOW7-10NEUP
6NW151014UPLOW
TUE
12/10
8NNW141418UPLOW9-13ESAME

LEGEND:

SWL HGTOpen ocean swell height measured from trough to crestin feet located 20 nautical miles offshore
DMNT DIRDominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 compasspoints
DMNT PDDominant period in seconds
H1/3Significant wave height in the surf zone
H1/10Average height in the highest one-tenth waves in the surfzone
HGT TENDHeight tendency of swell (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)
PROBProbability of occurrence (valid values: HIGH/MED/LOW)
WIND SPDOpen water wind speed measured in knots located20 nautical miles offshore
WIND DIRWind direction in 16 compass points
SPD TENDWind speed tendency (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME)

Compass & Swell Shadow Lines for Hawaii

Oahu Surf Climatology

Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.

DISCUSSION: SUMMARY... N to NE the focus into Sunday then dominant swell backs to WNW to NNW for next week with an upward trend.

DETAILED:. Mid Thursday on northern shores has breakers at a seasonal minimum. An increase is predicted on Friday.

A low pressure pattern had a second wind of energy this week and is expected to produce overlapping events from N and NNE, respectively 12/6-9.

The first phase had the low intensifying near the Aleutians on the Date Line 12/2 with a SE track. Gales over the 355-010 degree band aimed highest just east of Hawaii 12/2 into early 12/4 with the head of the fetch about 1200 nm away.

Surf is expected to build above the north shore seasonal average on Friday with a peak late in the day. The event should drop below average on Saturday as the next event arrives.

The second event occurred as the aforementioned low became occluded near 43N, 145W to the NNE of Hawaii early 12/4. The low center slowly shifted ESE into 12/5. ASCAT satellite swaths showed severe gale to storm force winds mostly north to south on the W to NW side of the low over a wide area aimed highest east of Hawaii though close enough for angular spreading. A separate fetch of gales aimed directly at Hawaii on the N to NE side of the low. Models show the low slowly easing in ocean surface winds toward marginal gales into Friday, then fading out Saturday.

Long-period forerunners are due locally early Saturday from 000-030 degrees. It should return surf above average mid day, peak overnight Saturday night, then slowly drop Sunday. Heights should fall to small levels on Monday from the same direction.

The blocking pattern in the NW to central N Pacific over the past 10 days has been undercut by an eastward shifting jet level trough 12/3-5. It is expected to stretch from Japan to longitudes of Hawaii by the weekend. The jet stream 12/4-5 is steering a surface low pressure eastward. Models show new lows spaced 1-2 days apart tracking east from the NW Pacific basin eastward within 12/6-11. This would give rise to overlapping, above average WNW to NNW events locally starting next week.

The first low has had a ribbon of gales stretch from near Hokkaido late Tuesday to near 170E by early Thursday near the 310 degree great circle band relative to Hawaii. Models show the head of the fetch reaching about 1000 nm away from Hawaii by early Saturday as winds weaken.

This event is expected to have forerunners near sundown Sunday night and filled in near to just above average by Monday morning from 305-315 degrees. On Monday, the longer period remote source swell is expected to arrive with the shorter period swell from the Saturday source making for less organized breakers. This event is expected to decline Tuesday as a new larger event fills in.

Models show a gale to severe gale low tracking east along 50N Friday 12/6 steered rapidly east by the zonal jet. It is expected to cross the Date Line late Saturday. A wider fetch of stronger winds over the 310-330 degree band than the prior low is predicted to set up, that should manifest into above average breakers building locally Tuesday morning. It should peak late Tuesday.

Mid Thursday on eastern shores has breakers from 30-90 degrees at levels below the trade windswell average. The aforementioned N to NNE events are expected to bring select locations above the east side average 12/6-8.

ASCAT satellite Thursday morning shows fresh to strong breezes to the N to NNE of Hawaii associated with a strong high pressure cell near 40N, 160W. This should trend up windswell from 000-040 degrees Friday and drop on Saturday.

See the latest NWS State Forecast Discussion for an explanation of the varying local skies and winds.

No surf beyond tiny is expected from the southern hemisphere this period and next week.

Into the long range, each low in the NW to N central Pacific this week into next is expected to become more favorable for surf size in Hawaii, leading to a steady upward tend locally next week. A new event Wednesday 12/11 from 315-330 degrees should stay above average into Thursday 12/12, when surf grows well above average. Models are suggesting a frontal passage 12/12-13 that could result in rough windswell from 000-030 degrees.

Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence.

This collaborative forecast will resume on Monday, December 9.

This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.

ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See https://www.weather.gov/hfo/marine

NWS Forecaster and NCEI Pat Caldwell

Additional Resources:

Waimea Buoy Mokapu Point Buoy Kaumalapau SW Lanai Buoy Barbers Point, Kalaeloa Buoy Pauwela, Maui Hilo Bay Buoy Kaneohe Bay Buoy Hanalei Kauai Buoy Pearl Harbor Entrance
Buoy 51001 Buoy 51101 Buoy 51000 Buoy 51100 Buoy 51002 Buoy 51003 Buoy 51004

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