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Surf Forecast for Oahu Issued: 03/22/2019 03:56:37 AM HST
Surf Discussion for Oahu Issued: 03/20/2019 03:00:29 PM HST
FZHW52 PHFO 
SRFHFO
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
356 AM HST FRI MAR 22 2019
OAHU-
356 AM HST FRI MAR 22 2019
Surf along north facing shores will be 9 to 14 feet today, rising to 10 to 15 feet tonight and Saturday.
Surf along west facing shores will be 5 to 8 feet today, rising to 6 to 10 feet tonight and Saturday.
Surf along east facing shores will be 2 to 4 feet today, rising to 3 to 5 feet Saturday.
Surf along south facing shores will be 2 feet or less through Saturday.
Outlook through Friday March 29: A reinforcing north-northwest swell could push north shore surf to advisory levels tonight and Saturday. Surf is expected to drop well below advisory levels by Sunday, and several reinforcing north and northwest swells will maintain small to moderate surf into the middle of next week. A larger northwest swell is possible next Thursday. Surf along east facing shores will build to around March average this weekend due to stronger trade winds, followed by a decline early next week as trades ease. South shore surf will remain small.
Surf heights are forecast heights of the face, or front, of waves. The surf forecast is based on the significant wave height, the average height of the one third largest waves, at the locations of the largest breakers. Some waves may be more than twice as high as the significant wave height. Expect to encounter rip currents in or near any surf zone.
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST FOR OAHU
NWS/NCDDC HONOLULU HI
300 PM HST WED MAR 20 2019
This collaborative forecast will be updated Monday through Friday at 300 PM when Pat Caldwell is available.
| FORECAST DATE | SWL HGT | DMNT DIR | DMNT PD | H 1/3 | H 1/10 | HGT TEND | PROB | WIND SPD | WIND DIR | SPD TEND |
| 1PM 03/20 | 7 | NW | 18 | 14 | 18 | UP | 4-6 | VRB | SAME | |
| 4 | N | 11 | 6 | 8 | DOWN | |||||
| THU 03/21 | 7 | NW | 14 | 12 | 16 | DOWN | HIGH | 11-16 | NE | UP |
| 8 | NNW | 13 | 14 | 18 | UP | LOW | ||||
| FRI 03/22 | 8 | NNW | 12 | 12 | 16 | DOWN | MED | 13-19 | ENE | UP |
| 6 | ENE | 6 | 2 | 4 | UP | LOW | ||||
| SAT 03/23 | 8 | NNW | 14 | 14 | 18 | SAME | LOW | 13-19 | ENE | SAME |
| 6 | ENE | 7 | 3 | 4 | UP | LOW | ||||
| SUN 03/24 | 5 | NNW | 14 | 8 | 10 | DOWN | MED | 17-21 | ENE | UP |
| 7 | ENE | 7 | 4 | 5 | UP | LOW | ||||
| MON 03/25 | 4 | N | 12 | 6 | 8 | DOWN | LOW | 11-16 | E | DOWN |
| 7 | ENE | 7 | 4 | 5 | DOWN | LOW |
LEGEND:
| SWL HGT | Open ocean swell height measured from trough to crestin feet located 20 nautical miles offshore |
| DMNT DIR | Dominant direction typically +/-10 degrees in 16 compasspoints |
| DMNT PD | Dominant period in seconds |
| H1/3 | Significant wave height in the surf zone |
| H1/10 | Average height in the highest one-tenth waves in the surfzone |
| HGT TEND | Height tendency of swell (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME) |
| PROB | Probability of occurrence (valid values: HIGH/MED/LOW) |
| WIND SPD | Open water wind speed measured in knots located20 nautical miles offshore |
| WIND DIR | Wind direction in 16 compass points |
| SPD TEND | Wind speed tendency (valid values: UP/DOWN/SAME) |
Compass & Swell Shadow Lines for Hawaii
Surf heights will vary between different beaches and at the same beach at different break areas.
DISCUSSION: SUMMARY:. Overlapping NW to N events into the weekend.
DETAILED:. Mid Wednesday on northern shores has rising breakers from 305-325 degrees above the March average and dropping surf from 345-010 degrees. Heights should remain elevated on Thursday.
A low pressure system gained storm force as it tracked east along 45N east of the Kuril Islands 3/16 reaching the Date Line with seas over 30 feet early 3/18. The center was north of Hawaii 3/19 as it stalled.
The primary surf was produced over the 305-325 degree band while west of the Date Line. NOAA NW Hawaii buoys 51001 and 51101 Wednesday morning 3/20 suggest the peak of the episode will occur local after sundown. Once east of the Date Line, the fetch became more zonal or west to east, aiming higher seas well NE of Hawaii. Surf should remain elevated Thursday from 305-330 degrees.
A new low pressure formed Monday 3/18 just west of the Date Line. It raced NE and merged with the former low 3/19-20 north of Hawaii. A long, wide fetch of near gales with pockets to marginal gales formed over the 320-340 degree band nosing to within 600 nm of Hawaii Wednesday morning. Short- to moderate-period swell from this source should build locally Thursday afternoon, peak overnight, then slowly decline on Friday at levels above the March average.
The merged low pressure pattern 3/20-21 north of Hawaii is modelled to have central pressure dropping below 960 mb with hurricane force. The highest seas are aimed well NE of Hawaii. Wave Watch III is bringing into Hawaii some of the moderate period swell of 14-15 seconds Friday night into Saturday from 330-350 degrees. This should keep surf above average through Saturday.
The merged low pattern is modelled to move east Friday 3/22 into Monday 3/25, leading to surf dropping below average by Sunday 3/24 from 340-360 degrees trending down into Monday.
Mid Wednesday on eastern shores has near nil windswell from the trade wind belt of 50-90 degrees. Exposures to north swell are declining.
Models have backed off on the magnitude of the overhead and upstream trades for the weekend. See the latest NWS State Forecast Discussion for more details.
The upstream fetch of trades is predicted to remain short over the weekend. The moderate to fresh trade wind event should slowly pick up surf Friday into Sunday to levels near average from 50-90 degrees. Heights are modelled to trend down on Monday.
No surf beyond tiny to small is predicted this period for southern shores, with low-end summer background conditions.
Into the long range, storm- to hurricane force low pressure systems tracking east to the S to SE of New Zealand within 55-65S and turning NE near 150W could be enough to bring in 1', long-period swell making for upper-end summer background conditions locally 3/27-31 from 170-200 degrees.
In the north Pacific, storm-force low pressure systems west of the Date Line within 3/23-25 are expected to bring surf above average from WNW to NNW starting late 3/27 and holding into 3/29. Shorter period N swell are suggest for 3/28-29.
Trade windswell from 50-90 degrees is expected to remain below average.
Long range forecasts are subject to low confidence.
This collaborative forecast will resume on Friday, March 22.
This forecast was produced through the collaborative efforts of NWS and NCEI. Please send suggestions to w-hfo.webmaster@noaa.gov or call the Warning Coordination Meteorologist at 808-973-5275.
ADDITIONAL RESOURCES: See http://weather.gov/hfo/marine
NWS Forecaster and NCEI Pat Caldwell
Additional Resources:
Latest North Pacific Surface Analysis
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