It is emphasized...this soaring forecast information is valid only for the RAOB site area, and frequently will not apply to other areas of the state.
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Wichita, Kansas
0744 CDT Saturday, August 15, 2020
This forecast is for Saturday August 15, 2020
:
If the trigger temperature of 87.2 F/30.7 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Fair
Maximum rate of lift........................ 333 ft/min (1.7 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 4477 ft MSL (2938 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 87.0 F/31.0 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1415 CDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 2971 ft MSL (1432 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Sunday 08/16....... Fair
Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available
Remarks... Expect mixing heights around 3500-4000 ft agl today, with few to
scattered afternoon cumulus. Slight chances for showers/thunderstorms
late tonight into Sunday morning. Mixing heights will be a bit lower
Sunday around 3000-3500 ft agl.
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:47:35 / 20:24:22 CDT
Total possible sunshine........... 13 hr 36 min 47 sec (816 min 47 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:35:59 CDT... 64.53 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 08/15/2020 at 0600 CDT
Freezing level.................. 15387 ft MSL (13848 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 9638 ft MSL (8099 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 6590 ft MSL (5051 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -6.1
K index......................... +31.9
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18000 -6.3 20.7 345 14 7 7.7 4.2 44.0 111.2 10.9 M M
17000 -4.0 24.8 345 11 6 8.0 4.4 43.3 109.9 10.4 M M
16000 -1.6 29.1 340 8 4 8.4 4.6 42.8 109.0 10.0 M M
15000 0.8 33.4 325 7 3 8.4 4.6 42.3 108.1 9.6 M M
14000 3.2 37.8 305 6 3 8.3 4.6 41.8 107.2 9.1 M M
13000 5.6 42.1 295 6 3 8.3 4.6 41.3 106.4 8.7 M M
12000 8.0 46.4 290 6 3 7.9 4.3 40.8 105.4 8.3 M M
11000 10.4 50.7 280 5 3 7.9 4.3 40.2 104.3 7.8 M M
10000 13.3 55.9 270 4 2 7.8 4.3 39.4 102.9 7.2 M M
9500 14.4 57.9 270 3 2 7.1 3.9 39.0 102.2 6.9 M M
9000 15.3 59.5 275 3 1 7.1 3.9 38.6 101.4 6.4 M M
8500 16.2 61.2 280 2 1 7.2 4.0 38.1 100.7 5.9 M M
8000 17.2 63.0 295 1 1 7.4 4.1 37.7 99.9 5.5 M M
7500 18.0 64.4 325 1 1 5.9 3.2 37.2 99.0 4.8 M M
7000 18.6 65.5 355 2 1 6.2 3.4 36.7 98.0 4.0 M M
6500 19.3 66.7 005 2 1 5.4 3.0 36.0 96.9 3.2 M M
6000 20.0 68.0 010 2 1 5.4 3.0 35.4 95.7 2.5 M M
5500 20.7 69.3 010 2 1 5.7 3.1 34.7 94.5 1.7 M M
5000 21.3 70.3 005 2 1 5.0 2.8 34.1 93.4 1.0 M M
4500 21.8 71.2 360 3 1 3.1 1.7 33.2 91.7 0.0 M M
4000 22.4 72.3 355 3 1 5.1 2.8 32.4 90.3 -0.8 101 0.5
3750 22.7 72.9 360 3 2 2.6 1.4 31.9 89.5 -1.3 86 0.4
3500 22.8 73.0 005 4 2 2.7 1.5 31.3 88.4 -1.9 76 0.4
3250 23.0 73.4 010 4 2 4.2 2.3 30.9 87.6 -2.4 61 0.3
3000 23.3 73.9 015 5 3 3.6 2.0 30.4 86.8 -2.9 46 0.2
2750 23.4 74.1 020 6 3 0.7 0.4 29.9 85.8 -3.5 35 0.2
2500 23.3 73.9 020 6 3 -2.1 -1.1 29.1 84.3 -4.3 30 0.2
2250 23.1 73.6 020 7 3 -2.5 -1.4 28.2 82.7 -5.2 29 0.1
2000 22.9 73.2 020 7 4 -2.5 -1.4 27.2 81.0 -6.2 27 0.1
1750 22.7 72.9 015 6 3 -4.9 -2.7 26.3 79.3 -7.1 26 0.1
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
08/15/2020 at 0900 CDT | 08/15/2020 at 1200 CDT
|
CAPE... +2874.9 LI... -7.7 | CAPE... +2829.9 LI... -7.0
CINH... -121.7 K Index... +30.9 | CINH... -105.4 K Index... +28.8
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18000 -6.3 20.7 335 14 7 7.4 4.1 | -5.9 21.4 325 13 7 7.6 4.2
17000 -4.2 24.4 330 12 6 7.9 4.3 | -3.7 25.3 315 11 6 8.0 4.4
16000 -1.7 28.9 320 10 5 8.5 4.7 | -1.3 29.7 310 10 5 8.3 4.6
15000 0.8 33.4 305 8 4 8.7 4.7 | 1.3 34.3 300 10 5 8.7 4.8
14000 3.3 37.9 300 8 4 8.5 4.7 | 3.6 38.5 295 10 5 8.3 4.5
13000 5.8 42.4 295 8 4 8.5 4.7 | 6.0 42.8 290 10 5 8.3 4.6
12000 8.2 46.8 295 8 4 7.9 4.4 | 8.3 46.9 290 9 4 7.7 4.2
11000 10.5 50.9 295 7 3 7.8 4.3 | 10.6 51.1 290 7 3 7.4 4.1
10000 13.4 56.1 285 5 3 7.9 4.3 | 12.8 55.0 290 5 3 7.3 4.0
9500 14.5 58.1 285 5 2 7.2 3.9 | 13.9 57.0 280 4 2 7.0 3.9
9000 15.5 59.9 290 4 2 7.3 4.0 | 15.3 59.5 275 3 1 6.7 3.7
8500 16.4 61.5 295 3 1 6.4 3.5 | 16.1 61.0 275 2 1 5.9 3.2
8000 17.2 63.0 310 2 1 6.6 3.6 | 16.7 62.1 285 1 0 6.3 3.5
7500 17.9 64.2 345 2 1 6.1 3.3 | 17.5 63.5 045 1 0 6.7 3.7
7000 18.5 65.3 015 2 1 6.5 3.6 | 18.3 64.9 060 2 1 6.5 3.6
6500 19.4 66.9 030 3 1 6.7 3.7 | 19.3 66.7 065 3 2 5.9 3.2
6000 20.3 68.5 035 3 2 5.5 3.0 | 20.4 68.7 070 4 2 5.1 2.8
5500 20.9 69.6 035 4 2 5.4 3.0 | 20.8 69.4 070 5 2 3.5 1.9
5000 21.5 70.7 035 5 3 4.6 2.5 | 21.2 70.2 070 5 3 4.6 2.5
4500 22.1 71.8 040 6 3 3.8 2.1 | 21.8 71.2 070 5 3 6.4 3.5
4000 22.7 72.9 045 6 3 4.5 2.5 | 22.7 72.9 065 5 3 9.3 5.1
3750 22.9 73.2 050 6 3 2.7 1.5 | 23.4 74.1 065 5 3 9.5 5.2
3500 23.1 73.6 050 6 3 1.5 0.8 | 24.1 75.4 065 5 3 9.7 5.3
3250 23.1 73.6 050 7 3 2.1 1.2 | 24.8 76.6 065 5 3 9.3 5.1
3000 23.1 73.6 050 7 3 -0.7 -0.4 | 25.5 77.9 065 5 3 10.2 5.6
2750 22.9 73.2 050 7 4 0.6 0.3 | 26.3 79.3 060 5 3 11.0 6.1
2500 23.2 73.8 050 7 3 7.0 3.9 | 27.1 80.8 060 5 3 10.9 6.0
2250 23.7 74.7 045 6 3 7.2 3.9 | 27.8 82.0 060 5 2 9.8 5.4
2000 24.2 75.6 045 6 3 9.5 5.2 | 28.6 83.5 060 5 2 13.8 7.6
1750 25.1 77.2 045 5 3 18.0 9.8 | 29.9 85.8 060 4 2 24.8 13.6
08/15/2020 at 1500 CDT | 08/15/2020 at 1800 CDT
|
CAPE... +2314.7 LI... -5.2 | CAPE... +1727.5 LI... -5.8
CINH... -70.5 K Index... +31.7 | CINH... -225.2 K Index... +31.6
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18000 -5.4 22.3 315 13 7 8.0 4.4 | -5.2 22.6 315 15 7 8.6 4.7
17000 -3.1 26.4 310 12 6 8.2 4.5 | -2.6 27.3 310 14 7 8.5 4.7
16000 -0.7 30.7 300 11 5 8.3 4.6 | -0.1 31.8 300 13 7 8.5 4.7
15000 1.8 35.2 295 10 5 8.3 4.6 | 2.4 36.3 295 12 6 8.5 4.6
14000 4.1 39.4 290 10 5 8.1 4.4 | 4.9 40.8 295 12 6 8.6 4.7
13000 6.4 43.5 295 9 5 8.3 4.6 | 7.3 45.1 295 11 6 8.2 4.5
12000 8.6 47.5 295 8 4 7.8 4.3 | 9.5 49.1 295 10 5 7.5 4.1
11000 10.7 51.3 290 7 3 6.5 3.6 | 11.4 52.5 290 8 4 6.6 3.6
10000 12.8 55.0 275 5 3 6.7 3.7 | 13.0 55.4 275 6 3 5.3 2.9
9500 13.8 56.8 265 4 2 6.2 3.4 | 14.1 57.4 255 5 3 4.9 2.7
9000 14.8 58.6 245 3 2 5.5 3.0 | 14.7 58.5 240 5 3 4.9 2.7
8500 15.4 59.7 230 3 1 5.3 2.9 | 15.4 59.7 230 5 2 6.6 3.6
8000 16.1 61.0 210 2 1 5.5 3.0 | 16.3 61.3 210 4 2 6.5 3.6
7500 17.0 62.6 175 2 1 7.5 4.1 | 17.2 63.0 195 4 2 7.1 3.9
7000 18.0 64.4 140 2 1 7.1 3.9 | 18.2 64.8 175 4 2 7.2 3.9
6500 18.9 66.0 125 3 1 6.5 3.5 | 19.3 66.7 155 4 2 7.3 4.0
6000 19.8 67.6 115 3 2 6.7 3.7 | 20.3 68.5 145 4 2 5.9 3.2
5500 20.8 69.4 100 4 2 8.2 4.5 | 21.1 70.0 120 4 2 6.4 3.5
5000 21.9 71.4 090 4 2 8.1 4.4 | 22.1 71.8 100 5 3 7.0 3.8
4500 23.3 73.9 085 5 2 10.4 5.7 | 23.3 73.9 090 6 3 8.1 4.5
4000 24.7 76.5 085 5 2 9.8 5.4 | 24.5 76.1 085 7 4 8.7 4.8
3750 25.5 77.9 085 5 3 10.4 5.7 | 25.2 77.4 085 7 4 8.7 4.8
3500 26.2 79.2 085 5 3 9.8 5.4 | 25.8 78.4 080 7 4 9.1 5.0
3250 26.9 80.4 080 5 3 8.8 4.9 | 26.5 79.7 080 8 4 9.4 5.1
3000 27.6 81.7 080 5 3 10.1 5.6 | 27.2 81.0 080 8 4 9.8 5.4
2750 28.4 83.1 080 5 3 11.1 6.1 | 28.0 82.4 080 8 4 10.4 5.7
2500 29.2 84.6 080 5 3 10.7 5.8 | 28.7 83.7 080 8 4 10.1 5.5
2250 30.0 86.0 080 5 3 9.8 5.4 | 29.4 84.9 080 7 4 10.3 5.7
2000 30.7 87.3 080 5 3 12.6 6.9 | 30.2 86.4 080 7 4 9.2 5.1
1750 31.9 89.4 080 5 2 21.3 11.7 | 30.7 87.3 080 7 3 6.3 3.5
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 CST/0730 CDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 CST/1930 CDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Wichita Gliderport at
North Latitude: 37 deg 45 min 48.420 sec
West Longitude: 97 deg 10 min 41.220 sec
Elevation: 1380 feet (420 meters)
and may not be representative of other locations around the Wichita area. Note
that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models differ from actual
station elevations, which can lead to data which appear to be below ground.
Erroneous data such as these should not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
051515
Follow us on Twitter
Follow us on Facebook
Follow us on YouTube
ICT RSS Feed