It is emphasized...this soaring forecast information is valid only for the RAOB site area, and frequently will not apply to other areas of the state.
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Wichita, Kansas
2006 CST Tuesday, November 30, 2021
This forecast is for Wednesday December 1, 2021
:
If the trigger temperature of 69.1 F/20.6 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
Maximum rate of lift........................ 72 ft/min (0.4 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 4407 ft MSL (2865 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 72.0 F/22.7 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1345 CST
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 3041 ft MSL (1499 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 12/02..... Poor
Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:29:08 / 17:12:33 CST
Total possible sunshine........... 9 hr 43 min 25 sec (583 min 25 sec)
Altitude of sun at 12:20:50 CST... 29.96 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 11/30/2021 at 0500 CST
Freezing level.................. 10947 ft MSL (9405 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 16176 ft MSL (14634 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 11212 ft MSL (9670 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +8.7
K index......................... +10.8
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18000 -11.7 10.9 350 136 70 8.4 4.6 39.2 102.5 10.8 M M
17000 -9.9 14.2 355 139 71 4.0 2.2 37.8 100.1 10.3 M M
16000 -8.8 16.2 355 141 72 4.3 2.4 35.8 96.4 9.7 M M
15000 -7.4 18.7 355 143 73 6.6 3.6 34.0 93.3 9.0 M M
14000 -5.5 22.1 355 139 72 7.0 3.8 33.0 91.4 8.2 M M
13000 -3.4 25.9 355 130 67 6.4 3.5 32.1 89.8 7.6 M M
12000 -1.8 28.8 350 112 58 5.6 3.1 30.8 87.4 7.0 M M
11000 -0.3 31.5 350 108 55 6.0 3.3 29.3 84.7 6.7 M M
10000 1.8 35.2 355 109 56 7.2 3.9 28.3 83.0 6.5 M M
9500 3.0 37.4 350 105 54 7.4 4.1 27.9 82.3 6.2 M M
9000 4.6 40.3 350 97 50 6.6 3.6 27.3 81.2 5.7 M M
8500 5.7 42.3 350 90 47 6.3 3.5 26.8 80.3 5.3 M M
8000 6.4 43.5 355 89 46 4.6 2.5 26.1 79.0 4.9 M M
7500 7.0 44.6 355 88 45 5.1 2.8 25.3 77.5 4.4 M M
7000 7.8 46.0 355 95 49 5.5 3.0 24.6 76.3 3.9 M M
6500 8.6 47.5 355 102 53 5.3 2.9 23.9 75.1 3.4 M M
6000 9.4 48.9 355 107 55 5.3 2.9 23.2 73.8 2.7 M M
5500 10.1 50.2 355 109 56 5.5 3.0 22.6 72.6 1.9 M M
5000 10.9 51.6 355 108 56 5.1 2.8 21.9 71.4 1.1 M M
4500 11.7 53.1 355 107 55 5.4 2.9 21.2 70.1 0.2 M M
4000 12.4 54.3 355 104 54 3.6 2.0 20.4 68.7 -0.8 47 0.2
3750 12.6 54.7 355 104 53 3.3 1.8 19.9 67.8 -1.2 32 0.2
3500 12.8 55.0 355 102 53 2.9 1.6 19.4 66.9 -1.8 18 0.1
3250 13.0 55.4 355 101 52 0.3 0.2 18.8 65.8 -2.4 6 0.0
3000 12.9 55.2 355 99 51 -1.2 -0.7 18.0 64.4 -3.1 M M
2750 12.7 54.9 355 96 49 -2.7 -1.5 17.1 62.8 -3.8 M M
2500 12.3 54.1 355 91 47 -10.1 -5.5 16.1 60.7 -5.0 M M
2250 11.3 52.3 355 82 42 -13.5 -7.4 14.2 57.6 -7.1 29 0.1
2000 10.3 50.5 355 74 38 -13.9 -7.6 12.5 54.5 -9.1 61 0.3
1750 8.7 47.7 355 48 25 -35.7 -19.6 10.1 50.3 -11.7 110 0.6
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
11/30/2021 at 0800 CST | 11/30/2021 at 1100 CST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +12.5 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +12.7
CINH... 0.0 K Index... -8.4 | CINH... -0.1 K Index... -5.5
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18000 -9.9 14.2 355 184 95 8.3 4.6 | -9.3 15.3 355 189 97 8.7 4.8
17000 -8.0 17.6 355 184 95 5.8 3.2 | -6.8 19.8 355 191 98 8.0 4.4
16000 -6.4 20.5 355 190 98 5.2 2.8 | -4.6 23.7 355 194 100 6.6 3.6
15000 -4.8 23.4 355 198 102 4.7 2.6 | -2.8 27.0 355 199 102 5.5 3.0
14000 -3.4 25.9 355 207 106 4.6 2.5 | -1.2 29.8 355 203 105 3.8 2.1
13000 -2.0 28.4 360 208 107 4.6 2.5 | -0.1 31.8 360 208 107 3.7 2.0
12000 -0.7 30.7 360 206 106 5.3 2.9 | 1.0 33.8 360 214 110 4.2 2.3
11000 1.0 33.8 360 195 100 5.4 3.0 | 2.6 36.7 360 212 109 4.0 2.2
10000 2.7 36.9 355 180 93 4.1 2.3 | 3.7 38.7 360 205 106 3.2 1.8
9500 3.3 37.9 355 176 91 4.2 2.3 | 4.2 39.6 360 202 104 3.1 1.7
9000 3.9 39.0 355 180 93 4.1 2.3 | 4.5 40.1 360 200 103 2.0 1.1
8500 4.5 40.1 355 187 96 4.4 2.4 | 4.8 40.6 360 200 103 2.3 1.3
8000 5.2 41.4 360 196 101 4.8 2.7 | 5.1 41.2 360 202 104 2.6 1.4
7500 6.0 42.8 360 206 106 5.0 2.8 | 5.5 41.9 360 204 105 4.4 2.4
7000 6.7 44.1 360 214 110 5.1 2.8 | 6.3 43.3 360 208 107 5.1 2.8
6500 7.5 45.5 360 223 115 5.7 3.1 | 7.2 45.0 360 212 109 6.5 3.6
6000 8.4 47.1 360 232 119 5.2 2.8 | 8.2 46.8 360 216 111 5.9 3.2
5500 9.1 48.4 360 201 104 6.6 3.6 | 9.0 48.2 360 221 114 6.2 3.4
5000 10.2 50.4 360 120 62 7.0 3.8 | 10.0 50.0 360 228 117 5.7 3.1
4500 11.2 52.2 360 123 63 6.8 3.7 | 10.8 51.4 360 230 119 5.8 3.2
4000 12.2 54.0 360 71 37 6.6 3.6 | 11.6 52.9 360 231 119 6.0 3.3
3750 12.7 54.9 010 9 5 5.5 3.0 | 12.0 53.6 360 230 118 3.8 2.1
3500 13.0 55.4 010 9 4 3.8 2.1 | 12.2 54.0 360 228 117 2.9 1.6
3250 13.2 55.8 015 9 5 2.8 1.5 | 12.5 54.5 360 223 115 4.7 2.6
3000 13.4 56.1 015 9 5 3.3 1.8 | 12.8 55.0 360 217 112 4.1 2.2
2750 13.5 56.3 020 9 5 -3.4 -1.8 | 13.1 55.6 360 212 109 5.0 2.8
2500 12.7 54.9 360 54 28 -13.6 -7.4 | 13.6 56.5 360 208 107 7.3 4.0
2250 11.6 52.9 360 132 68 -15.5 -8.5 | 14.1 57.4 360 203 105 6.9 3.8
2000 10.4 50.7 360 209 108 -14.3 -7.8 | 14.6 58.3 360 198 102 9.5 5.2
1750 9.3 48.7 360 205 106 -15.6 -8.6 | 15.6 60.1 360 196 101 17.5 9.6
11/30/2021 at 1400 CST | 11/30/2021 at 1700 CST
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +10.2 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +8.8
CINH... -0.0 K Index... +2.4 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +7.2
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18000 -9.3 15.3 355 149 77 7.8 4.3 | -9.3 15.3 350 101 52 7.1 3.9
17000 -7.0 19.4 355 161 83 7.9 4.3 | -7.2 19.0 350 104 54 7.3 4.0
16000 -4.8 23.4 355 169 87 7.1 3.9 | -5.0 23.0 350 107 55 7.1 3.9
15000 -2.8 27.0 355 176 90 6.1 3.4 | -3.0 26.6 355 108 55 6.7 3.7
14000 -1.1 30.0 355 182 94 4.9 2.7 | -1.0 30.2 355 108 55 6.0 3.3
13000 0.4 32.7 355 190 98 4.4 2.4 | 0.7 33.3 355 111 57 6.0 3.3
12000 1.6 34.9 360 199 102 4.4 2.4 | 2.8 37.0 355 119 61 4.8 2.6
11000 2.9 37.2 360 200 103 4.8 2.6 | 4.3 39.7 355 124 64 5.5 3.0
10000 4.7 40.5 360 197 101 4.8 2.6 | 5.9 42.6 355 127 66 4.9 2.7
9500 5.4 41.7 360 195 100 4.7 2.6 | 6.6 43.9 355 128 66 4.9 2.7
9000 6.1 43.0 360 194 100 4.3 2.4 | 7.3 45.1 355 126 65 4.5 2.5
8500 6.7 44.1 360 193 99 4.0 2.2 | 8.0 46.4 355 124 64 4.8 2.6
8000 7.2 45.0 360 194 100 3.5 1.9 | 8.7 47.7 355 119 61 5.1 2.8
7500 7.7 45.9 360 196 101 3.6 2.0 | 9.5 49.1 355 115 59 5.4 2.9
7000 8.3 46.9 360 197 102 3.6 2.0 | 10.3 50.5 355 108 56 5.5 3.0
6500 8.9 48.0 360 194 100 5.0 2.7 | 11.0 51.8 355 99 51 5.0 2.7
6000 9.7 49.5 360 185 95 5.1 2.8 | 11.8 53.2 355 88 45 6.4 3.5
5500 10.5 50.9 360 166 86 5.6 3.1 | 12.7 54.9 355 75 39 4.3 2.3
5000 11.4 52.5 355 133 68 4.5 2.5 | 13.4 56.1 350 56 29 4.7 2.6
4500 11.8 53.2 355 100 51 1.5 0.8 | 13.9 57.0 345 34 18 2.3 1.3
4000 12.3 54.1 355 55 28 6.4 3.5 | 14.1 57.4 295 10 5 -0.6 -0.3
3750 12.8 55.0 350 34 18 5.2 2.8 | 14.1 57.4 230 12 6 1.6 0.9
3500 13.1 55.6 350 24 12 6.5 3.6 | 14.3 57.7 200 25 13 4.6 2.5
3250 13.7 56.7 345 19 10 9.5 5.2 | 14.7 58.5 195 37 19 5.7 3.1
3000 14.4 57.9 345 16 8 9.5 5.2 | 15.1 59.2 190 48 25 6.8 3.7
2750 15.1 59.2 340 12 6 9.5 5.2 | 15.6 60.1 185 61 31 6.7 3.7
2500 15.9 60.6 335 10 5 10.1 5.6 | 16.0 60.8 185 71 37 3.6 2.0
2250 16.6 61.9 330 8 4 10.3 5.6 | 16.2 61.2 185 77 40 4.3 2.3
2000 17.4 63.3 325 7 4 10.5 5.7 | 16.4 61.5 185 82 42 -2.0 -1.1
1750 18.2 64.8 310 5 3 12.1 6.6 | 15.4 59.7 185 87 45 -27.3 -15.0
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 CST/0730 CDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 CST/1930 CDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Wichita Gliderport at
North Latitude: 37 deg 45 min 48.420 sec
West Longitude: 97 deg 10 min 41.220 sec
Elevation: 1380 feet (420 meters)
and may not be representative of other locations around the Wichita area. Note
that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models differ from actual
station elevations, which can lead to data which appear to be below ground.
Erroneous data such as these should not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
051515
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