It is emphasized...this soaring forecast information is valid only for the RAOB site area, and frequently will not apply to other areas of the state.
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Wichita, Kansas
2035 CDT Thursday, June 17, 2021
This forecast is for Friday June 18, 2021
:
If the trigger temperature of 95.9 F/35.5 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Good
Maximum rate of lift........................ 655 ft/min (3.3 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 9974 ft MSL (8437 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 104.0 F/40.5 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1145 CDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... None
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 7569 ft MSL (6032 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Saturday 06/19..... Good
Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available
Remarks... It will be breezy in the afternoon, especially Friday, but otherwise,
deeper mixing should lead to good soaring conditions the next couple
of days.
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:09:04 / 20:56:41 CDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 47 min 36 sec (887 min 36 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:32:53 CDT... 73.88 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 06/17/2021 at 0600 CDT
Freezing level.................. 16305 ft MSL (14768 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 15645 ft MSL (14108 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 14165 ft MSL (12628 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -1.8
K index......................... +16.3
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18000 -4.7 23.5 070 6 3 8.9 4.9 45.6 114.1 4.1 M M
17000 -1.9 28.6 075 4 2 8.9 4.9 45.4 113.7 3.8 M M
16000 0.6 33.1 090 3 2 8.4 4.6 44.9 112.8 3.8 M M
15000 3.2 37.8 110 3 1 8.5 4.6 44.4 112.0 3.7 M M
14000 5.7 42.3 125 3 1 8.6 4.7 44.0 111.3 3.3 M M
13000 8.1 46.6 155 3 1 7.8 4.3 43.5 110.4 2.7 M M
12000 10.4 50.7 185 3 2 7.4 4.0 42.8 109.1 1.9 M M
11000 13.3 55.9 215 4 2 8.9 4.9 42.1 107.8 0.9 M M
10000 15.9 60.6 225 5 2 8.4 4.6 41.8 107.2 -0.1 650 3.3
9500 17.2 63.0 230 5 3 8.7 4.8 41.6 106.8 -0.6 608 3.1
9000 18.5 65.3 230 5 3 8.8 4.8 41.4 106.5 -1.3 570 2.9
8500 19.9 67.8 235 5 3 8.5 4.7 41.2 106.2 -2.0 531 2.7
8000 21.1 70.0 240 5 3 8.6 4.7 41.0 105.8 -2.6 491 2.5
7500 22.1 71.8 240 5 3 6.6 3.6 40.7 105.3 -3.1 445 2.3
7000 23.0 73.4 240 6 3 6.7 3.7 40.2 104.3 -3.3 393 2.0
6500 23.7 74.7 240 8 4 4.7 2.6 39.5 103.2 -3.5 340 1.7
6000 24.4 75.9 240 10 5 6.3 3.5 38.8 101.8 -3.7 288 1.5
5500 25.3 77.5 240 13 7 5.0 2.8 38.2 100.8 -3.6 226 1.1
5000 26.0 78.8 240 15 8 3.9 2.1 37.6 99.7 -3.8 173 0.9
4500 26.6 79.9 235 17 9 5.9 3.2 36.7 98.1 -4.5 136 0.7
4000 27.3 81.1 235 18 10 4.0 2.2 36.0 96.8 -5.3 99 0.5
3750 27.5 81.5 230 19 10 3.1 1.7 35.5 95.9 -5.8 85 0.4
3500 27.7 81.9 230 20 10 3.0 1.6 35.0 95.0 -6.4 72 0.4
3250 27.8 82.0 230 20 11 1.7 0.9 34.4 94.0 -7.1 63 0.3
3000 27.8 82.0 225 21 11 -1.5 -0.8 33.7 92.7 -7.9 57 0.3
2750 27.5 81.5 225 20 10 -2.6 -1.5 32.8 91.0 -8.7 53 0.3
2500 27.1 80.8 220 20 10 -7.0 -3.8 31.7 89.1 -9.8 56 0.3
2250 26.3 79.3 215 17 9 -10.7 -5.9 30.3 86.5 -11.4 73 0.4
2000 25.4 77.7 210 14 7 -10.4 -5.7 28.8 83.8 -12.9 90 0.5
1750 24.5 76.1 205 10 5 -12.1 -6.6 27.2 80.9 -14.8 115 0.6
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
06/17/2021 at 0900 CDT | 06/17/2021 at 1200 CDT
|
CAPE... +434.8 LI... -0.8 | CAPE... +695.6 LI... -1.2
CINH... -389.8 K Index... +12.4 | CINH... -193.8 K Index... +7.5
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18000 -4.0 24.8 110 4 2 7.7 4.2 | -3.7 25.3 165 2 1 7.5 4.1
17000 -1.7 28.9 110 4 2 8.0 4.4 | -1.4 29.5 155 3 1 7.8 4.3
16000 0.9 33.6 115 4 2 8.6 4.7 | 1.1 34.0 150 3 2 8.7 4.8
15000 3.4 38.1 120 4 2 8.6 4.7 | 3.7 38.7 150 4 2 8.9 4.9
14000 6.1 43.0 130 3 2 8.5 4.7 | 6.4 43.5 155 4 2 8.7 4.8
13000 8.6 47.5 135 3 1 8.3 4.5 | 9.0 48.2 155 3 2 8.4 4.6
12000 10.9 51.6 165 2 1 7.1 3.9 | 12.1 53.8 155 2 1 8.0 4.4
11000 13.6 56.5 225 2 1 7.8 4.3 | 14.3 57.7 180 1 0 7.5 4.1
10000 15.9 60.6 220 3 2 7.7 4.2 | 16.5 61.7 220 2 1 7.8 4.3
9500 17.1 62.8 220 4 2 6.6 3.6 | 17.7 63.9 225 2 1 6.8 3.7
9000 18.0 64.4 215 5 3 6.0 3.3 | 18.6 65.5 220 4 2 6.2 3.4
8500 18.8 65.8 210 6 3 6.9 3.8 | 19.5 67.1 220 5 3 5.5 3.0
8000 19.8 67.6 210 7 3 7.1 3.9 | 20.3 68.5 215 6 3 5.2 2.9
7500 20.9 69.6 215 7 4 8.3 4.6 | 21.1 70.0 215 8 4 6.8 3.7
7000 22.0 71.6 220 8 4 8.7 4.8 | 22.0 71.6 215 9 5 7.3 4.0
6500 23.1 73.6 225 8 4 7.2 4.0 | 22.9 73.2 210 10 5 5.8 3.2
6000 24.2 75.6 230 9 5 11.8 6.5 | 23.6 74.5 210 11 5 9.3 5.1
5500 25.8 78.4 235 10 5 5.5 3.0 | 24.9 76.8 210 11 6 7.1 3.9
5000 26.8 80.2 235 12 6 5.0 2.7 | 26.0 78.8 210 11 6 6.8 3.7
4500 27.3 81.1 235 13 7 4.9 2.7 | 26.9 80.4 210 12 6 7.6 4.2
4000 27.8 82.0 230 15 8 1.7 0.9 | 28.1 82.6 205 12 6 10.1 5.5
3750 27.7 81.9 230 16 8 -0.5 -0.3 | 28.8 83.8 205 12 6 9.0 5.0
3500 27.6 81.7 225 16 8 -0.5 -0.3 | 29.4 84.9 205 12 6 8.5 4.7
3250 27.5 81.5 225 16 8 1.0 0.5 | 30.0 86.0 205 12 6 10.1 5.5
3000 27.5 81.5 220 15 8 2.3 1.3 | 30.8 87.4 205 12 6 10.6 5.8
2750 27.5 81.5 220 14 7 0.5 0.3 | 31.5 88.7 205 12 6 9.1 5.0
2500 27.5 81.5 215 13 7 5.7 3.1 | 32.2 90.0 205 12 6 10.2 5.6
2250 28.2 82.8 210 12 6 11.1 6.1 | 33.1 91.6 205 11 6 11.7 6.4
2000 28.9 84.0 210 11 6 8.9 4.9 | 33.9 93.0 205 11 6 10.5 5.8
1750 29.6 85.3 210 10 5 13.7 7.5 | 34.8 94.6 200 10 5 15.6 8.6
06/17/2021 at 1500 CDT | 06/17/2021 at 1800 CDT
|
CAPE... +432.7 LI... -1.1 | CAPE... +631.0 LI... -2.1
CINH... -129.2 K Index... +12.0 | CINH... -131.0 K Index... +13.4
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18000 -3.6 25.5 260 3 1 7.8 4.3 | -3.7 25.3 300 4 2 8.3 4.6
17000 -1.3 29.7 215 3 1 7.8 4.3 | -1.2 29.8 265 2 1 8.3 4.5
16000 1.1 34.0 190 3 2 8.3 4.6 | 1.2 34.2 230 2 1 8.3 4.5
15000 3.7 38.7 180 3 2 8.9 4.9 | 3.8 38.8 210 2 1 8.8 4.9
14000 6.4 43.5 175 3 2 8.5 4.6 | 6.4 43.5 205 2 1 8.0 4.4
13000 8.9 48.0 175 3 1 8.0 4.4 | 8.8 47.8 205 2 1 8.1 4.5
12000 11.3 52.3 180 2 1 8.2 4.5 | 11.2 52.2 205 1 1 8.1 4.4
11000 14.2 57.6 195 1 1 7.6 4.2 | 13.5 56.3 215 1 1 7.6 4.2
10000 16.4 61.5 210 2 1 7.8 4.3 | 15.6 60.1 225 2 1 7.2 3.9
9500 17.5 63.5 215 3 1 6.7 3.7 | 17.1 62.8 220 4 2 7.2 4.0
9000 18.3 64.9 210 4 2 5.9 3.3 | 18.1 64.6 220 5 3 7.2 3.9
8500 19.0 66.2 210 6 3 5.9 3.3 | 19.1 66.4 220 6 3 5.9 3.3
8000 19.8 67.6 215 7 4 5.9 3.2 | 19.8 67.6 215 8 4 5.6 3.0
7500 20.7 69.3 210 9 4 7.9 4.3 | 20.5 68.9 215 10 5 8.0 4.4
7000 21.8 71.2 210 10 5 8.6 4.7 | 21.7 71.1 210 11 5 8.5 4.6
6500 22.9 73.2 205 11 5 7.8 4.3 | 22.9 73.2 205 11 6 8.1 4.4
6000 24.1 75.4 205 11 6 11.7 6.4 | 24.2 75.6 200 11 6 11.7 6.4
5500 25.7 78.3 205 11 6 8.2 4.5 | 25.7 78.3 200 11 6 8.0 4.4
5000 27.0 80.6 205 11 6 11.4 6.2 | 27.0 80.6 200 12 6 11.4 6.3
4500 28.7 83.7 200 11 6 9.0 4.9 | 28.7 83.7 195 12 6 9.1 5.0
4000 30.2 86.4 200 11 6 9.9 5.4 | 30.1 86.2 195 12 6 9.1 5.0
3750 30.9 87.6 200 11 6 9.9 5.4 | 30.8 87.4 195 12 6 9.7 5.3
3500 31.7 89.1 200 11 6 9.9 5.4 | 31.5 88.7 190 12 6 9.9 5.4
3250 32.4 90.3 200 11 6 9.9 5.4 | 32.2 90.0 190 12 6 9.5 5.2
3000 33.2 91.8 200 11 6 10.0 5.5 | 32.9 91.2 190 12 6 9.5 5.2
2750 33.9 93.0 200 11 6 9.9 5.4 | 33.6 92.5 190 12 6 10.0 5.5
2500 34.6 94.3 200 11 6 10.2 5.6 | 34.3 93.7 190 11 6 9.5 5.2
2250 35.4 95.7 200 11 5 10.5 5.7 | 35.0 95.0 190 11 6 8.6 4.7
2000 36.2 97.2 200 10 5 10.9 6.0 | 35.6 96.1 185 10 5 8.9 4.9
1750 37.1 98.8 195 10 5 16.8 9.2 | 36.2 97.2 185 9 5 8.9 4.9
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 CST/0730 CDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 CST/1930 CDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Wichita Gliderport at
North Latitude: 37 deg 45 min 48.420 sec
West Longitude: 97 deg 10 min 41.220 sec
Elevation: 1380 feet (420 meters)
and may not be representative of other locations around the Wichita area. Note
that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models differ from actual
station elevations, which can lead to data which appear to be below ground.
Erroneous data such as these should not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
051515
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