It is emphasized...this soaring forecast information is valid only for the RAOB site area, and frequently will not apply to other areas of the state.
Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Wichita, Kansas
2048 CDT Wednesday, October 17, 2018
This forecast is for Thursday October 18, 2018
:
If the trigger temperature of 63.8 F/17.7 C is reached...then
Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
Maximum rate of lift........................ 0 ft/min (0.0 m/s)
Maximum height of thermals.................. 2190 ft MSL (667 ft AGL)
Forecast maximum temperature................... 58.0 F/14.9 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... None
Time of overdevelopment........................ 1200 CDT
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast opaque middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 1929 ft MSL (406 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Friday 10/19....... Poor
Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available
Remarks...
Sunrise/Sunset.................... 07:43:15 / 18:50:12 CDT
Total possible sunshine........... 11 hr 6 min 56 sec (666 min 56 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:16:44 CDT... 42.14 degrees
Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 10/17/2018 at 0600 CDT
Freezing level.................. 12381 ft MSL (10858 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 14354 ft MSL (12831 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 6680 ft MSL (5157 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... +17.2
K index......................... +6.3
Height Temperature Wind Wind Spd Lapse Rate ConvectionT Thermal Lift Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft deg C deg F Index fpm m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18000 -9.3 15.3 190 72 37 2.2 1.2 42.2 108.0 21.6 M M
17000 -9.0 15.8 190 67 35 1.2 0.6 39.3 102.7 20.8 M M
16000 -8.0 17.6 190 63 33 4.3 2.4 37.1 98.8 20.4 M M
15000 -6.3 20.7 190 60 31 7.3 4.0 35.8 96.5 20.0 M M
14000 -4.1 24.6 185 56 29 7.6 4.1 35.0 95.1 19.3 M M
13000 -1.7 28.9 185 57 29 8.3 4.5 34.4 93.9 17.9 M M
12000 0.6 33.1 185 63 33 7.7 4.2 33.8 92.9 16.0 M M
11000 2.7 36.9 180 63 32 5.2 2.9 32.8 91.1 14.2 M M
10000 4.5 40.1 180 61 31 3.2 1.7 30.5 87.0 12.0 M M
9500 4.8 40.6 180 67 35 0.5 0.3 29.3 84.7 11.2 M M
9000 4.9 40.8 180 80 41 0.4 0.2 27.8 82.0 10.1 M M
8500 4.9 40.8 180 78 40 -0.4 -0.2 26.2 79.1 9.0 M M
8000 4.8 40.6 180 63 32 0.1 0.0 24.5 76.2 7.8 M M
7500 5.0 41.0 175 56 29 2.4 1.3 23.2 73.8 6.8 M M
7000 5.3 41.5 175 51 26 3.3 1.8 22.1 71.7 5.9 M M
6500 5.9 42.6 175 50 26 4.1 2.2 21.2 70.1 5.2 M M
6000 6.5 43.7 175 51 26 5.2 2.8 20.4 68.6 4.7 M M
5500 7.2 45.0 175 56 29 4.9 2.7 19.6 67.3 4.2 M M
5000 8.0 46.4 175 60 31 5.0 2.8 18.9 66.0 4.0 M M
4500 8.8 47.8 175 63 32 7.1 3.9 18.3 65.0 3.8 M M
4000 9.8 49.6 175 60 31 6.5 3.6 17.9 64.2 3.5 M M
3750 10.2 50.4 175 58 30 5.7 3.1 17.6 63.7 3.4 M M
3500 10.5 50.9 180 60 31 5.8 3.2 17.3 63.1 3.1 M M
3250 11.0 51.8 180 62 32 6.6 3.6 17.0 62.6 2.9 M M
3000 11.4 52.5 180 65 33 5.3 2.9 16.7 62.1 2.6 M M
2750 11.7 53.1 180 69 36 3.2 1.7 16.3 61.4 2.3 M M
2500 11.9 53.4 180 73 37 3.7 2.0 15.8 60.4 1.5 M M
2250 12.1 53.8 180 76 39 -1.2 -0.6 15.3 59.5 0.7 M M
2000 11.6 52.9 180 76 39 -10.5 -5.8 14.0 57.3 -1.8 M M
1750 10.5 50.9 180 73 38 -16.9 -9.3 12.3 54.1 -5.2 59 0.3
* * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * *
10/17/2018 at 0900 CDT | 10/17/2018 at 1200 CDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +14.7 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +13.2
CINH... -0.1 K Index... +7.1 | CINH... -0.1 K Index... +8.5
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18000 -9.3 15.3 240 15 8 3.1 1.7 | -9.4 15.1 245 15 8 4.7 2.6
17000 -8.7 16.3 240 15 8 2.7 1.5 | -8.1 17.4 245 13 7 4.7 2.6
16000 -7.4 18.7 240 13 7 5.4 2.9 | -6.6 20.1 240 10 5 5.2 2.9
15000 -5.5 22.1 235 10 5 7.2 3.9 | -5.1 22.8 225 9 5 5.6 3.1
14000 -3.4 25.9 225 8 4 6.8 3.8 | -3.4 25.9 210 9 4 6.4 3.5
13000 -1.4 29.5 215 6 3 6.7 3.7 | -1.5 29.3 200 8 4 6.8 3.7
12000 0.5 32.9 210 5 3 6.4 3.5 | 0.5 32.9 195 8 4 6.5 3.6
11000 2.4 36.3 200 4 2 5.8 3.2 | 2.5 36.5 190 8 4 5.9 3.2
10000 4.4 39.9 180 3 2 4.2 2.3 | 4.7 40.5 185 7 4 5.1 2.8
9500 4.9 40.8 170 3 2 1.2 0.6 | 5.4 41.7 180 7 3 1.8 1.0
9000 5.1 41.2 165 4 2 1.3 0.7 | 5.7 42.3 175 6 3 1.9 1.1
8500 5.2 41.4 165 4 2 -0.0 -0.0 | 5.8 42.4 170 6 3 -1.0 -0.6
8000 5.2 41.4 160 4 2 0.3 0.2 | 5.7 42.3 170 7 3 -0.7 -0.4
7500 5.3 41.5 160 5 3 1.2 0.6 | 5.5 41.9 165 7 4 -0.6 -0.3
7000 5.4 41.7 155 6 3 2.2 1.2 | 5.4 41.7 165 7 4 0.5 0.3
6500 5.8 42.4 155 6 3 2.8 1.6 | 5.6 42.1 165 8 4 1.6 0.9
6000 6.2 43.2 150 7 4 3.1 1.7 | 5.9 42.6 165 9 4 3.0 1.7
5500 6.8 44.2 155 8 4 6.3 3.4 | 6.4 43.5 165 9 5 5.1 2.8
5000 7.6 45.7 155 8 4 4.1 2.3 | 7.1 44.8 165 9 5 4.5 2.5
4500 8.4 47.1 160 8 4 6.6 3.6 | 7.9 46.2 170 10 5 5.5 3.0
4000 9.3 48.7 160 8 4 6.1 3.3 | 8.6 47.5 170 9 5 5.3 2.9
3750 9.7 49.5 165 8 4 6.2 3.4 | 9.0 48.2 170 9 5 6.9 3.8
3500 10.1 50.2 165 8 4 6.0 3.3 | 9.5 49.1 170 9 4 7.7 4.2
3250 10.6 51.1 165 8 4 6.1 3.3 | 10.0 50.0 170 8 4 6.6 3.6
3000 11.0 51.8 165 9 4 4.9 2.7 | 10.5 50.9 175 8 4 8.4 4.6
2750 11.2 52.2 165 9 5 2.2 1.2 | 11.2 52.2 175 8 4 9.5 5.2
2500 11.3 52.3 165 9 5 1.4 0.8 | 11.8 53.2 175 7 4 8.3 4.6
2250 11.4 52.5 165 8 4 -0.9 -0.5 | 12.5 54.5 175 7 4 10.8 5.9
2000 11.1 52.0 165 7 4 -2.1 -1.2 | 13.4 56.1 175 7 3 11.7 6.4
1750 11.1 52.0 165 5 3 4.3 2.4 | 14.1 57.4 175 6 3 10.6 5.8
10/17/2018 at 1500 CDT | 10/17/2018 at 1800 CDT
|
CAPE... 0.0 LI... +12.8 | CAPE... 0.0 LI... +6.6
CINH... -0.0 K Index... +12.5 | CINH... 0.0 K Index... +21.8
|
Height Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate | Temperature Wnd WndSpd Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft | deg C deg F Dir kt m/s C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
18000 -9.0 15.8 235 17 9 5.4 3.0 | -8.5 16.7 245 18 9 6.5 3.6
17000 -7.5 18.5 235 15 8 5.3 2.9 | -6.7 19.9 245 17 9 6.2 3.4
16000 -6.0 21.2 235 13 7 5.7 3.1 | -5.1 22.8 245 15 8 5.8 3.2
15000 -4.3 24.3 230 11 6 6.0 3.3 | -3.5 25.7 245 13 7 6.1 3.3
14000 -2.7 27.1 225 10 5 5.9 3.2 | -1.7 28.9 235 12 6 6.9 3.8
13000 -1.1 30.0 220 10 5 5.8 3.2 | 0.2 32.4 230 11 6 5.7 3.1
12000 0.5 32.9 215 9 5 5.0 2.7 | 1.7 35.1 230 11 6 3.6 2.0
11000 2.5 36.5 210 8 4 5.8 3.2 | 3.1 37.6 220 10 5 3.9 2.1
10000 4.3 39.7 205 8 4 6.3 3.5 | 4.4 39.9 215 10 5 4.6 2.5
9500 5.1 41.2 205 9 4 3.7 2.0 | 5.1 41.2 215 9 5 5.4 3.0
9000 5.6 42.1 200 9 4 3.4 1.9 | 5.9 42.6 215 10 5 5.8 3.2
8500 6.0 42.8 195 9 4 -0.5 -0.2 | 6.6 43.9 215 10 5 4.6 2.5
8000 6.1 43.0 190 9 4 -0.4 -0.2 | 7.2 45.0 215 10 5 5.2 2.8
7500 6.1 43.0 185 9 5 -1.6 -0.9 | 7.5 45.5 210 10 5 -1.8 -1.0
7000 6.0 42.8 175 9 5 -1.0 -0.5 | 7.4 45.3 200 10 5 -1.2 -0.7
6500 6.0 42.8 175 9 5 0.2 0.1 | 7.2 45.0 195 10 5 -1.5 -0.8
6000 6.0 42.8 170 9 5 0.7 0.4 | 7.1 44.8 190 10 5 -0.7 -0.4
5500 6.3 43.3 170 10 5 3.3 1.8 | 7.2 45.0 180 9 5 0.1 0.1
5000 6.8 44.2 175 10 5 4.8 2.7 | 7.3 45.1 180 9 5 0.2 0.1
4500 7.3 45.1 175 9 5 5.1 2.8 | 7.3 45.1 175 9 5 0.9 0.5
4000 8.3 46.9 175 9 5 6.6 3.6 | 7.6 45.7 180 9 5 2.2 1.2
3750 8.7 47.7 180 9 5 6.8 3.7 | 7.8 46.0 180 9 5 2.9 1.6
3500 9.2 48.6 180 8 4 7.7 4.2 | 8.1 46.6 180 9 4 4.7 2.6
3250 9.8 49.6 180 8 4 7.8 4.3 | 8.5 47.3 180 8 4 5.0 2.7
3000 10.3 50.5 180 8 4 9.2 5.0 | 8.8 47.8 185 7 4 5.7 3.1
2750 11.0 51.8 185 7 4 10.2 5.6 | 9.3 48.7 185 7 4 8.4 4.6
2500 11.7 53.1 185 7 4 9.2 5.0 | 10.0 50.0 185 7 4 9.4 5.1
2250 12.4 54.3 185 7 3 10.4 5.7 | 10.7 51.3 185 7 3 9.2 5.1
2000 13.2 55.8 185 6 3 11.7 6.4 | 11.3 52.3 185 6 3 7.7 4.2
1750 13.9 57.0 185 5 3 11.2 6.1 | 11.7 53.1 185 5 2 4.0 2.2
________________________________________________________________________________
This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 CST/0730 CDT
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 CST/1930 CDT (0130 UTC). It is not
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance.
The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Wichita Gliderport at
North Latitude: 37 deg 45 min 48.420 sec
West Longitude: 97 deg 10 min 41.220 sec
Elevation: 1380 feet (420 meters)
and may not be representative of other locations around the Wichita area. Note
that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models differ from actual
station elevations, which can lead to data which appear to be below ground.
Erroneous data such as these should not be used.
The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice. Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page. To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in
the soaring forecast.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
energy available for convective development, also known as the positive
area on a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. Larger
values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of
stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms. Values around or
greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
convective activity develop.
CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
a thermodynamic diagram. Units are Joules per kilogram. The more negative
this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection. This
inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)
Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it
just becomes saturated. It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
produced by surface heating only.
Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level. It can be considered a
"trigger temperature" for that level.
Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.
Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above
mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists. The location and
existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain
waves.
K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface. Larger
positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of
thunderstorm development. One interpretation of K index values regarding
soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158
and is reproduced in the following table:
below -10 no or weak thermals
-10 to 5 dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
5 to 15 good soaring conditions
15 to 20 good soaring conditions with occasional showers
20 to 30 excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
probability of showers and thunderstorms
above 30 more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms
Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
inversions.
Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.
Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
level. The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum
temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
feet of the airmass. Negative values are indicative of instability with
positive values showing stable conditions.
Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals. It is
computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
are applied to these calculations.
Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.
Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals. It
is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures
between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet
above the ground. After this computation, further empirical adjustments
are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment.
Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds. Broken means that
between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights:
1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
where the wind speed no longer increases with height
PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
sea level). Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.
Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
and the time of overdevelopment.
Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level. Negative values
are indicative of thermal lift.
Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the
computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:
Maximum rate of lift Adjective Rating
>= 800 fpm Excellent
>= 400 and < 800 fpm Good
>= 200 and < 400 fpm Fair
< 200 fpm Poor
Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
3. initiation of widespread precipitation
Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
reach the trigger temperature.
Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.
Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which
attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
soaring into a single index number. Objective points are assigned to
these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough
movements.
051515
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