National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Soaring Forecast

 

 

 

It is emphasized...this soaring forecast information is valid only for the RAOB site area, and frequently will not apply to other areas of the state.

 


Soaring Forecast
National Weather Service Wichita, Kansas
0535 AM CDT Wednesday, June 29, 2016

This forecast is for Wednesday, June 29, 2016:

If the trigger temperature of 85.7 F/29.8 C is reached...then
   Thermal Soaring Index....................... Poor
   Maximum rate of lift........................ 131 ft/min (0.7 m/s)
   Maximum height of thermals.................. 6481 ft MSL (4967 ft AGL)

Forecast maximum temperature................... 88.0 F/31.6 C
Time of trigger temperature.................... 1415 CDT
Time of overdevelopment........................ None
Middle/high clouds during soaring window....... Broken/overcast thin middle
Surface winds during soaring window............ 20 mph or less
Height of the -3 thermal index................. 3208 ft MSL (1694 ft AGL)
Thermal soaring outlook for Thursday 06/30..... Fair

Wave Soaring Index............................. Not available

Remarks... 

Sunrise/Sunset.................... 06:12:28 / 20:57:57 CDT
Total possible sunshine........... 14 hr 45 min 29 sec (885 min 29 sec)
Altitude of sun at 13:35:16 CDT... 75.21 degrees

Upper air data from numerical model forecast valid on 06/29/2016 at 0700 CDT

Freezing level.................. 14618 ft MSL (13104 ft AGL)
Convective condensation level... 10482 ft MSL (8968 ft AGL)
Lifted condensation level....... 8611 ft MSL (7098 ft AGL)
Lifted index.................... -3.3
K index......................... +14.1

Height  Temperature  Wind  Wind Spd  Lapse Rate  ConvectionT  Thermal  Lift Rate
ft MSL  deg C deg F   Dir   kt  m/s  C/km F/kft  deg C deg F   Index    fpm  m/s
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 18000   -7.3  18.9   325   20   11   7.6   4.1   43.2 109.7     9.9      M    M
 17000   -5.1  22.8   325   18    9   7.2   3.9   42.2 108.0     9.2      M    M
 16000   -3.0  26.6   325   16    8   7.2   4.0   41.3 106.4     8.5      M    M
 15000   -0.9  30.4   325   14    7   7.0   3.8   40.4 104.7     7.8      M    M
 14000    1.2  34.2   330   12    6   6.8   3.7   39.4 103.0     7.0      M    M
 13000    3.3  37.9   335   10    5   7.3   4.0   38.5 101.3     6.3      M    M
 12000    5.5  41.9   340    7    4   6.9   3.8   37.6  99.7     5.6      M    M
 11000    7.6  45.7   335    4    2   7.6   4.2   36.8  98.2     4.9      M    M
 10000    9.8  49.6   305    2    1   7.6   4.1   36.1  96.9     4.2      M    M
  9500   11.4  52.5   260    3    1   6.7   3.7   35.5  95.9     3.6      M    M
  9000   12.2  54.0   240    4    2   6.9   3.8   35.0  95.0     3.0      M    M
  8500   13.1  55.6   235    5    2   6.2   3.4   34.5  94.1     2.4      M    M
  8000   13.8  56.8   230    6    3   6.5   3.5   33.9  93.1     1.7      M    M
  7500   14.7  58.5   225    7    3   7.4   4.0   33.5  92.2     1.1      M    M
  7000   15.6  60.1   225    8    4   7.4   4.0   33.1  91.6     0.5      M    M
  6500   16.4  61.5   220    8    4   7.2   3.9   32.7  90.8    -0.1    327  1.7
  6000   17.3  63.1   220    8    4  12.0   6.6   32.3  90.1    -0.6    286  1.5
  5500   18.8  65.8   205    8    4   4.4   2.4   32.3  90.2    -0.7    228  1.2
  5000   19.8  67.6   195    8    4   7.8   4.3   31.8  89.3    -1.0    181  0.9
  4500   21.0  69.8   185    9    5   6.7   3.7   31.5  88.6    -1.3    131  0.7
  4000   22.0  71.6   175   10    5   6.0   3.3   30.9  87.7    -1.7     86  0.4
  3750   22.5  72.5   175   11    6   7.1   3.9   30.7  87.2    -2.0     64  0.3
  3500   23.0  73.4   170   12    6   5.3   2.9   30.5  86.8    -2.3     43  0.2
  3250   23.0  73.4   165   13    7   3.0   1.6   30.0  86.0    -2.9     33  0.2
  3000   23.1  73.6   160   14    7   4.9   2.7   29.5  85.2    -3.6     24  0.1
  2750   23.2  73.8   155   16    8   0.8   0.4   29.1  84.4    -4.3     15  0.1
  2500   22.8  73.0   150   16    8  -4.7  -2.6   28.1  82.7    -5.4     19  0.1
  2250   22.3  72.1   150   17    9  -3.7  -2.0   27.1  80.7    -6.6     25  0.1
  2000   21.9  71.4   145   17    9  -6.1  -3.3   26.0  78.9    -7.8     32  0.2
  1750   21.1  70.0   140   14    7 -15.2  -8.3   24.5  76.2    -9.3     47  0.2

 * * * * * * Numerical weather prediction model forecast data valid * * * * * * 

           06/29/2016 at 1000 CDT          |       06/29/2016 at 1300 CDT        
                                           |
K index... +20.1  LI... +266.2             | K index... +28.8  LI... +267.8
CAPE... +2017.2  CIN... -40.9              | CAPE... +1508.1  CIN... -21.9
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 18000  -7.3  18.9  300  24 12   6.7   3.7 |  -6.7  19.9  320  23 12   5.8   3.2
 17000  -5.1  22.8  295  22 11   7.0   3.9 |  -5.1  22.8  320  24 12   6.0   3.3
 16000  -3.1  26.4  295  19 10   6.9   3.8 |  -3.3  26.1  315  24 12   6.3   3.4
 15000  -1.1  30.0  300  16  8   6.6   3.6 |  -1.4  29.5  310  24 12   7.1   3.9
 14000   1.0  33.8  305  13  6   6.7   3.7 |   0.9  33.6  310  22 11   7.7   4.2
 13000   3.0  37.4  310  10  5   7.1   3.9 |   3.1  37.6  305  19 10   7.4   4.1
 12000   5.2  41.4  315   7  4   7.9   4.4 |   5.4  41.7  305  16  8   8.0   4.4
 11000   7.6  45.7  310   6  3   8.1   4.4 |   7.7  45.9  300  12  6   7.9   4.4
 10000   9.9  49.8  300   5  2   7.7   4.2 |  10.7  51.3  285   8  4   7.7   4.2
  9500  11.6  52.9  290   4  2   6.9   3.8 |  12.0  53.6  280   7  4   7.5   4.1
  9000  12.5  54.5  280   4  2   7.0   3.8 |  13.1  55.6  275   6  3   7.5   4.1
  8500  13.4  56.1  275   5  2   6.1   3.4 |  14.2  57.6  265   6  3   7.2   3.9
  8000  14.1  57.4  270   5  3   6.5   3.6 |  15.3  59.5  255   5  3   7.3   4.0
  7500  14.8  58.6  265   6  3   6.5   3.6 |  16.1  61.0  245   5  3   5.7   3.1
  7000  15.5  59.9  260   6  3   7.1   3.9 |  16.7  62.1  230   5  3   6.5   3.6
  6500  16.3  61.3  255   6  3   7.4   4.1 |  17.3  63.1  220   6  3   7.3   4.0
  6000  17.2  63.0  250   6  3  12.4   6.8 |  17.9  64.2  210   6  3  11.3   6.2
  5500  18.7  65.7  230   5  3   4.4   2.4 |  19.2  66.6  195   7  4   4.1   2.2
  5000  19.9  67.8  215   5  3   8.0   4.4 |  20.2  68.4  185   9  4   7.4   4.0
  4500  21.1  70.0  200   6  3   5.9   3.2 |  21.3  70.3  175  11  5   6.3   3.4
  4000  21.9  71.4  185   7  4   4.5   2.5 |  22.3  72.1  165  12  6   9.4   5.1
  3750  22.3  72.1  185   8  4   6.0   3.3 |  22.9  73.2  165  12  6  10.6   5.8
  3500  22.6  72.7  180   9  5   3.9   2.2 |  23.6  74.5  160  12  6  10.3   5.7
  3250  22.7  72.9  170  11  6   2.2   1.2 |  24.3  75.7  160  12  6   9.2   5.1
  3000  22.7  72.9  165  13  6   1.7   0.9 |  25.0  77.0  160  12  6  10.1   5.5
  2750  22.7  72.9  160  15  8   3.6   2.0 |  25.8  78.4  160  12  6  10.6   5.8
  2500  22.9  73.2  155  14  7   7.5   4.1 |  26.6  79.9  160  12  6  10.7   5.8
  2250  23.2  73.8  155  12  6   6.1   3.4 |  27.3  81.1  160  12  6   9.4   5.2
  2000  23.5  74.3  150  11  6  11.5   6.3 |  28.1  82.6  160  11  6  13.8   7.5
  1750  24.7  76.5  150  10  5  24.0  13.2 |  29.5  85.1  160  11  6  26.1  14.3

           06/29/2016 at 1600 CDT          |       06/29/2016 at 1900 CDT        
                                           |
K index... +32.3  LI... +266.7             | K index... +36.4  LI... +266.0
CAPE... +1813.4  CIN... -8.8               | CAPE... +2323.1  CIN... -4.1
                                           |
Height Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate | Temperature  Wnd WndSpd  Lapse Rate
ft MSL deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft | deg C deg F  Dir kt m/s  C/km F/kft
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 18000  -6.3  20.7  320  25 13   7.0   3.9 |  -6.2  20.8  335  34 18   6.6   3.6
 17000  -4.0  24.8  325  24 13   7.4   4.0 |  -4.1  24.6  335  32 17   7.3   4.0
 16000  -2.0  28.4  325  23 12   6.9   3.8 |  -2.1  28.2  330  30 15   7.6   4.2
 15000  -0.1  31.8  330  22 11   6.4   3.5 |  -0.2  31.6  330  26 13   6.9   3.8
 14000   1.8  35.2  335  20 10   6.9   3.8 |   1.7  35.1  325  23 12   7.3   4.0
 13000   3.8  38.8  335  19 10   7.0   3.9 |   3.9  39.0  325  20 10   7.5   4.1
 12000   6.0  42.8  325  18  9   8.3   4.6 |   6.1  43.0  330  16  8   7.8   4.3
 11000   8.3  46.9  315  16  8   7.6   4.1 |   8.3  46.9  335  12  6   7.9   4.3
 10000  10.8  51.4  300  12  6   7.4   4.1 |  11.1  52.0  325   9  5   7.7   4.2
  9500  11.9  53.4  290  10  5   7.3   4.0 |  12.1  53.8  310   8  4   7.4   4.1
  9000  13.0  55.4  280   9  5   7.3   4.0 |  13.1  55.6  285   6  3   7.3   4.0
  8500  14.1  57.4  270   8  4   7.2   4.0 |  14.1  57.4  245   7  3   7.5   4.1
  8000  15.2  59.4  255   8  4   7.3   4.0 |  15.1  59.2  220   9  5   7.6   4.2
  7500  16.1  61.0  235   8  4   6.6   3.6 |  16.1  61.0  205  11  6   8.0   4.4
  7000  16.9  62.4  215   9  5   7.1   3.9 |  17.1  62.8  190  13  6   8.2   4.5
  6500  17.7  63.9  200  10  5   8.2   4.5 |  18.2  64.8  185  13  7   9.4   5.2
  6000  18.6  65.5  185  11  6   9.2   5.0 |  19.5  67.1  180  13  7  10.9   6.0
  5500  20.1  68.2  185  11  6   9.7   5.3 |  21.1  70.0  175  12  6   9.2   5.0
  5000  21.6  70.9  180  12  6  10.6   5.8 |  22.6  72.7  175  12  6  10.4   5.7
  4500  23.0  73.4  180  12  6   9.0   4.9 |  24.0  75.2  175  12  6   9.2   5.1
  4000  24.4  75.9  180  11  6  10.1   5.5 |  25.4  77.7  170  12  6   9.5   5.2
  3750  25.2  77.4  180  11  6  10.3   5.6 |  26.1  79.0  170  12  6  10.0   5.5
  3500  25.9  78.6  180  11  6  10.2   5.6 |  26.9  80.4  170  12  6   9.9   5.5
  3250  26.7  80.1  180  11  6   9.9   5.4 |  27.6  81.7  170  12  6   9.7   5.3
  3000  27.4  81.3  175  11  6   9.8   5.4 |  28.3  82.9  170  12  6   9.9   5.4
  2750  28.1  82.6  175  11  6  10.0   5.5 |  29.1  84.4  165  11  6  10.1   5.6
  2500  28.9  84.0  175  11  6  10.5   5.8 |  29.8  85.6  165  11  6   9.5   5.2
  2250  29.6  85.3  175  11  6  10.1   5.6 |  30.5  86.9  165  11  6   8.6   4.7
  2000  30.4  86.7  175  11  5  12.1   6.6 |  31.2  88.2  165  10  5  10.5   5.8
  1750  31.6  88.9  175  10  5  20.1  11.0 |  32.0  89.6  165  10  5  14.5   7.9
________________________________________________________________________________

This product is issued twice per day, once by approximately 0630 CST/0730 CDT 
(1330 UTC) and again by approximately 1830 CST/1930 CDT (0130 UTC).  It is not 
continuously monitored nor updated after its initial issuance. 

The information contained herein is based on rawinsonde observation and/or
numerical weather prediction model data taken at the Sunflower Gliderport at 

                   North Latitude: 37 deg 55 min 35.043 sec
                   West Longitude: 97 deg 54 min 22.188 sec
                   Elevation: 1582 feet (482 meters)

and may not be representative of other locations around the Hutchinson area.
Note that some elevations in numerical weather prediction models differ from
actual station elevations, which can lead to data which appear to be below
ground.  Erroneous data such as these should not be used.

The content and format of this report as well as the issuance times are subject
to change without prior notice.  Comments and suggestions are welcome and should
be directed to one of the addresses or phone numbers shown at the bottom of this
page.  To expedite a response to comments, be sure to mention your interest in 
the soaring forecast.

DEFINITIONS:

CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) - An integrated measure of the
     energy available for convective development, also known as the positive 
     area on a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  Larger
     values are indicative of greater instability and the possibility of 
     stronger convective activity, including thunderstorms.  Values around or
     greater than 1000 suggest the possibility of severe weather should
     convective activity develop.

CIN (Convective Inhibition) - An integrated measure of the amount of energy
     needed to initiate convective activity, also known as the negative area on
     a thermodynamic diagram.  Units are Joules per kilogram.  The more negative
     this number, the more energy is required to initiate convection.  This
     inhibitive energy can be overcome through surface heating, cooling aloft,
     lifting mechanisms (orographic, frontal, gravity waves, etc.)

Convective Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the
     average saturation mixing ratio in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass,
     if heated sufficiently from below, will rise dry adiabatically until it 
     just becomes saturated.  It estimates the base of cumulus clouds that are
     produced by surface heating only.

Convection Temperature (ConvectionT) - The surface temperature required to make
     the airmass dry adiabatic up to the given level.  It can be considered a
     "trigger temperature" for that level.

Freezing Level - The height where the temperature is zero degrees Celsius.

Height of Stable Layer - The height (between 12,000 and 18,000 feet above 
     mean sea level) where the smallest lapse rate exists.  The location and
     existence of this feature is important in the generation of mountain 
     waves.

K Index - A measure of stability which combines the temperature difference
     between approximately 5,000 and 18,000 feet above the surface, the amount
     of moisture at approximately 5,000 feet above the surface, and a measure
     of the dryness at approximately 10,000 feet above the surface.  Larger 
     positive numbers indicate more instability and a greater likelihood of 
     thunderstorm development.  One interpretation of K index values regarding
     soaring in the western United States is given in WMO Technical Note 158 
     and is reproduced in the following table:

          below -10    no or weak thermals
           -10 to 5    dry thermals or 1/8 cumulus with moderate thermals
            5 to 15    good soaring conditions
           15 to 20    good soaring conditions with occasional showers
           20 to 30    excellent soaring conditions, but increasing
                       probability of showers and thunderstorms
           above 30    more than 60 percent probability of thunderstorms

Lapse Rate - The change with height of the temperature. Negative values indicate
     inversions. 

Lifted Condensation Level - The height to which an air parcel possessing the 
     average dew point in the lowest 4000 feet of the airmass and the forecast
     maximum temperature must be lifted dry adiabatically to attain saturation.

Lifted Index (LI) - The difference between the environmental temperature at a
     level approximately 18,000 feet above the surface and the temperature of
     an air parcel lifted dry adiabatically from the surface to its lifted
     condensation level and then pseudoadiabatically thereafter to this same
     level.  The parcel's initial temperature is the forecast maximum 
     temperature and its dew point is the average dew point in the lowest 4000
     feet of the airmass.  Negative values are indicative of instability with
     positive values showing stable conditions.

Lift Rate - An experimental estimate of the strength of thermals.  It is
     computed the same way as the maximum rate of lift but uses the actual
     level rather than the maximum height of thermals in the calculation.
     Also, none of the empirical adjustments based on cloudiness and K-index
     are applied to these calculations.

Maximum Height of Thermals - The height where the dry adiabat through the
     forecast maximum temperature intersects the environmental temperature.

Maximum Rate of Lift - An estimate of the maximum strength of thermals.  It 
     is computed from an empirical formula which combines the expected maximum
     height of thermals with the difference in the environmental temperatures 
     between the maximum height of thermals and the temperature 4,000 feet 
     above the ground.  After this computation, further empirical adjustments
     are made based on the value of the K-index and the amount and opacity of
     middle and high level cloudiness expected between the time of trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment.  

Middle/High Clouds - The amount and opacity of middle (altostratus, altocumulus)
     or high (cirrus, cirrostratus, cirrocumulus) clouds.  Broken means that
     between 60% and 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud, with overcast
     conditions occurring when more than 90% of the sky is covered by the cloud.
     Thin implies that the clouds are predominantly transparent, meaning that
     some sunlight is reaching the ground, in contrast to opaque which suggests
     that little sunlight is reaching the ground.
  
Potential Height of Wave - The minimum of the following two heights: 
     1. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind direction changes by 30 degrees or more
     2. Level above the height of stable layer (or 14,000 feet if none exists)
        where the wind speed no longer increases with height

PVA/NVA - Positive vorticity advection (PVA)/negative vorticity advection (NVA)
     on the 500 millibar isobaric surface (approximately 18,000 feet above mean
     sea level).  Weak PVA has been shown to assist in mountain wave soaring.

Soaring Window - The time between the time the trigger temperature is reached
                 and the time of overdevelopment.

Thermal Index - The difference between the environmental temperature and the
     temperature at a particular level determined by following the dry adiabat
     through the forecast maximum temperature up to that level.  Negative values
     are indicative of thermal lift.

Thermal Soaring Index - An adjective rating (for sailplanes) based on the 
     computed maximum rate of lift, and the wind speed and middle and high
     cloud cover expected during the soaring window (the time of the trigger
     temperature and the time of overdevelopment) according to the following:

                 Maximum rate of lift        Adjective Rating
                      >= 800 fpm                 Excellent
                 >= 400 and < 800 fpm              Good
                 >= 200 and < 400 fpm              Fair
                       < 200 fpm                   Poor  

Time of Overdevelopment - The time one or more of the following phenomena,
     which essentially shut off thermal lift, is expected to occur:
     1. formation of broken to overcast convective cloud cover
     2. formation of scattered to numerous downbursts
     3. initiation of widespread precipitation

Time of Trigger Temperature - The time the surface temperature is expected to
     reach the trigger temperature.

Trigger Temperature - The surface temperature required to make the first 4000
     feet of the atmosphere dry adiabatic.

Wave Soaring Index - An empirical, adjective rating (for sailplanes) which 
     attempts to combine a variety of phenomena important in mountain wave
     soaring into a single index number.  Objective points are assigned to
     these phenomena: wind speed and direction at 14,000 ft MSL, the static
     stability in the 12,000-18,000 ft MSL layer, the wind speed gradient above
     the stable layer, jet stream location and frontal and upper trough 
     movements.

051515