National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Conditions as of:  February 13th, 2020  

 

Area Covered

This Spring Flood and Water Resource Outlook is for the North Platte Hydrologic Service Area, which covers western and north central Nebraska. The river basins include: the North Platte and South Platte Rivers and the Platte River in western Nebraska, Frenchman Creek and Stinking Water Creek in southwest Nebraska, the Loup and Dismal Rivers in the Sandhills of Nebraska, and portions of the Elkhorn and Niobrara Rivers in north central Nebraska.

Current Flooding

To obtain the latest watches, warnings, statements, and advisories, go to the NWS North Platte Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service

Flood Outlook Summary

At this time, the probability of spring flooding from March through May is above average for portions of north central and central Nebraska with around average flood potential for southwestern Nebraska. 

 

The potential for ice jam related flooding will remain high until the ice is off of the rivers, streams and lakes. Recent cold weather has caused ice to reform on  lakes and rivers, especially along the Niobrara and Elkhorn River. However, above normal temperatures are expected the last week of February, which will bring a low, to near zero ice jam threat. 

The potential for rainfall induced flash flooding is not quantifiable. This type of flooding is most likely to occur during the later spring and summer months.

Snow Cover and Mountain Snowpack

 

As of February 13, most areas were free of snow with the exception of portions of the Niobrara and Elkhorn River basins where a few inches of snow remains. However, we just passed the halfway point of our snow accumulation season on February 1, so additional snowfall is expected before the spring flood season.

The snowpack in the North Platte and South Platte River Basins in Colorado and Wyoming were slightly above average, ranging from 105 to 115 percent of average. These values are near last year. Flooding from snowmelt runoff is highly dependent on how quickly it comes out of the low to mid elevations of the mountains, typically 8500 ft and lower.

Snow Depth Snow Water Equivalent

Modeled Snow Analyses from National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center

 

Reservoir Conditions

Normal operations are ongoing at reservoirs along the North Platte River for this time of year. Releases from these dams have been limited through the winter months, with inflows generally coming from melting snow. Because of these operations, reservoir levels have risen through the winter months. The current reservoir storage across Wyoming, as well as Lake McConaughy are slightly above average for this time of the year.

Soil Conditions and Frost Depths

Soil moisture across western and north central Nebraska is above average, with the driest conditions across southwest Nebraska. Groundwater levels are very high, with several wells reporting water levels just a few inches below the surface. Soil temperature sensors indicate most areas have a 4 inch soil temperatures in the upper 20s to around 30 with a frost depth from 3 to 5 inches in southwest Nebraska to 5 to 10 inches in north central Nebraska. 

 

Calculated Soil Moisture Anomaly
Modeled Snow Moisture from Climate Prediction Center

 

Lastest 1 Day
Soil Temperature
Lastest 7 Day
Average Soil Temperature
One-day average soil temperatures Seven-day average soil temperatures
Soil Temperatures Data from University of Nebraska Lincoln Crop Watch

 

River and Lake Ice Conditions

Due to recent cold temperatures, ice is reforming on lakes, rivers and streams. 

Monthly Average Streamflow
Streamflow Mapping provided by the USGS

 

Seasonal Precipitation

Precipitation so far this water year, since October 1, 2019, has ranged from below average across southwest Nebraska to above average across north central and central Nebraska. Amounts ranged from around 2 inches in the southeastern panhandle and southwest Nebraska, to over 5 inches in portions of  north central Nebraska. 

Nebraska
Percent of Normal Precipitation since October 1
Nebraska
Departure from Normal Precipitation since October 1
Image of Percent of Normal Precipitation for the Water Year Current Climate Summary Map
Precipitation Maps from the High Plains Climate Center

 

Precipitation and Temperature Outlook

Water temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean continue to be slightly above average, indicating El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral conditions. The outlook indicates neutral conditions will continue through the spring, This weather pattern will typically bring warmer conditions to the southern and western portions of the United States, with wetter conditions over the Central and Northern Plains. For the summer, predictability is low for any type of overall weather pattern.


According to the Climate Prediction Center, the latest 8 to 14 day outlook calls for near average temperatures with above average precipitation.

8 - 14 Day Temperature Outlook 8 - 14 day Precipitation Outlook

 

The latest 30 day outlook for February indicates there are equal chances for above, below, or average temperatures and precipitation.

Temperature Outlook Precipitation Outlook
Monthly Temperature Outlook Monthly Precipitation Outlook

 

According to the Climate Prediction Center, the latest 90 day outlook for March, April, and May indicates there is equal chances for above, below, and average temperature and chances for above normal precipitation this spring.

Three Month Temperature Outlook Three Month Precipitation Outlook
off02_temp.gif (719×707) off02_prcp.gif (719×707)

 

More Outlooks are available at the Climate Prediction Center Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks webpage

 

Questions or Comments

If you have any questions or comments about this spring flood and water resource outlook please contact,

Kenneth Roberg
North Platte HSA Focal Point
National Weather Service
5250 East Lee Bird Dr
North Platte, NE 6910
Telephone 308-532-4936
E-mail kenneth.roberg@noaa.gov
 or 
Melissa Smith
Service Hydrologist
National Weather Service
300 East Signal Drive
Rapid City South Dakota 57701
Telephone 605-341-9271
E-mail melissa.smith@noaa.gov