Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms Thursday

Additional rounds of thunderstorms are expected Thursday and Thursday night across Oklahoma and north Texas, with risks for both large hail and flash flooding. Strong winds may accompany any storms from east Texas northeast through the lower Great Lakes. Read More >

Storm Warning: Advancements in Marine Forecasting since the Edmund Fitzgerald

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Forecast Format

Example from 1975

Example from 2010

Gridded Forecasts

Forecast Example from 1975

24 hour time frame

One Synopsis for entire Great Lakes region

Details at a minimum

WEATHER SYNOPSIS FOR GREAT LAKES
FORECAST POSITIONS FOR 1 AM EST MONDAY...DEEPENING LOW CENTER 29.25 INCHES EXTREME SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA WITH COLD FRONT AND WINDSHIFT LINE SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. LOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TO ABOUT 200 MILES NORTH OF EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH COLD FRONT AND WINDSHIFT LINE IN ARC TO EASTERN NEW YORK TO WEST VIRGINIA MIDNIGHT MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...DEEP LOW MOVING TO EAST OF JAMES BAY. WEAK RIDGE MOVING FROM NORTHERN PLAINS STATES TO UPPER AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

LAKE SUPERIOR
GALE WARNINGS IN EFFECT
WEST HALF...
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 28 TO 40 KNOTS INCREASING TO 35 TO 45 KNOTS THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT BECOMING NORTH TO NORTHWEST 35 TO 45 KNOTS MONDAY. RAIN MIXED WITH SNOW AT TIMES. SOME THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES 5 TO 10 FEET INCREASING TO 8 TO 15 FEET OVERNIGHT.

EAST HALF...
EASTERLY WINDS 32 TO 42 KNOTS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY MONDAY MORNING AND WEST TO SOUTHWEST 35 TO 45 KNOTS MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS. WAVES 5 TO 10 FEET INCREASING TO 8 TO 15 FEET MONDAY.

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Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms Thursday

Advances in Observations and Forecasts

Forecast Example from 1975