120 FXUS66 KSEW 302249 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 345 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure aloft will maintain warm and dry conditions across the region early this week. As the high pressure weakens toward midweek, expect a return to near normal temperatures. Most areas remain dry through the week, though a few showers are possible near the coast and mountains by the end of the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...Clear skies over W WA this afternoon as upper level ridging remains the dominant weather influence over the region. Temps as of 3 PM running the range from lower to mid 70s for water adjacent locations while some obs on the islands are still down in the mid to upper 60s. Interior locations are feeling the heat though with most land-based obs in the mid to upper 80s. With the ridge axis moving further east, centering over ID Tuesday, W WA will be on the backside of the feature and as such, will see temps start to cool but temps will start to cool, albeit gradually. An approaching upper level trough will help to enhance onshore pushes, which will help take the edge of temps more significantly Wednesday and Thursday, with daytime highs generally in the lower to mid 70s for the interior and mid to upper 60s for coastal and water- adjacent locations. This pairing of the upper level trough and onshore flow will allow for some moisture to increase over the area, mainly in the form of some clouds...but no precip is expected for much of W WA. Some isolated showers may be possible over portions of the Cascades Wednesday and Thursday with a shortwave disturbance, but otherwise this feature should have minimal impact. 18 && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...Confidence in the specifics of the pattern late in the week, including the Independence Day holiday, remains rather low with ensemble guidance continuing to exhibit a rather large spread in how the pattern may evolve. The forecast continues to reflect the most likely scenario of a generally zonal flow pattern that will provide for some morning clouds and temperatures close to (or slightly above) seasonal normals. This would leave the door open to perhaps a few light showers near the northern coast and in the North Cascades over the weekend, but even in these favored locations the chance of rain remains quite low (less than 20 percent) for the weekend. 12 && .AVIATION...The air mass is dry and stable across western WA with broad ridging over the Pac NW. Low level stratus clouds will push inland tonight, through the Chehalis gap and strait, for MVFR to IFR conditions. Expect VFR conditions in the interior. 33 KSEA...VFR tonight and Tuesday with N winds to 10 kt. 33 && .MARINE...A thermal trough along the coast will lead to gusty winds and choppy seas over the coastal waters - a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Expect strong westerly pushes down the Strait of Juan de Fuca tonight, Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Gales are possible in the strait Tuesday night. A weak front will cross the waters on Wednesday, with onshore flow following through the end of the week. 33 && .FIRE WEATHER...Warm and dry conditions will continue across the region through Wednesday under high pressure. Daytime RH values will continue to dip to around 30-35% across the Cascades, and central Puget Sound southward. A few spots in these areas may see RH drop to 25%, with elevated fire weather concerns (particularly in dry grassy areas). Light winds out of the north to northeast is expected with a slight breeze in the afternoons. Tuesday morning will have a modest RH recovery overnight/morning. As a deeper marine push begins to tap in some marine air west of Puget Sound Wednesday, a few areas east of the sound may still stay drier, with recoveries improving more on Thursday. Model guidance has the onshore flow with cooler temperatures and higher RH`s continuing through the holiday weekend. The biggest uncertainty will be if any showers are able to develop with weak troughs pushing through. HPR && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

988 FXUS66 KPQR 302213 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 313 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Hot weather continues today and Tuesday, with today shaping up to be the hottest day of the week. Expect widespread highs in the low to mid 90s across the interior valleys. A few isolated thunderstorms are possible over the Lane County Cascades Tuesday afternoon. Conditions cool to near to slightly above normal for early July for midweek into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Monday afternoon through Sunday...Observed temperatures at 3pm Monday are in the low 90s for locations east of the Coast Range, though marine stratus lingering right along the coast is keeping coastal temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. Inland temperatures are on track to peak in the mid-90s late this afternoon as high pressure over the Desert Southwest builds northwest into Oregon and Washington. Temperatures on Tuesday are expected to be around 5 degrees lower than today, peaking in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Thunderstorm chances for the Lane County Cascades have diminished for tonight as latest guidance keeps the main forcing and moisture south of the county, though a few showers could still form between 5 PM tonight through 5 AM Tuesday. Latest guidance indicates a shortwave along the cutoff low pressure system over California will move just north enough tomorrow afternoon to bring enough monsoonal moisture north into central Oregon as well as providing enough lift for a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms over the Lane and Linn County Cascades tomorrow afternoon. Weak troughing moving into the PacNW Tuesday night into Wednesday pushes the high pressure back to the east, allowing daytime temperatures to fall into the low 80s. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that weak longwave troughing will linger over the region through the end of the week and into the holiday weekend, bringing the return of onshore flow and near-seasonal temperatures for early July. Daily normal high temperatures are around 78-81 degrees across the Willamette Valley from July 1-6. High temperatures are forecast around 79-82 degrees across the Willamette Valley Wednesday through Sunday with little spread in the ensemble data. With the return of onshore flow, could also see the return of more widespread morning stratus across inland areas, as well. -HEC && .AVIATION...Satellite imagery as of early Monday afternoon depicts lingering stratus along the coast with persistent LIFR/IFR conditions at KONP. High pressure will maintain VFR conditions with mostly clear skies for Willamette Valley terminals through the TAF period. Will see some increasing high clouds tonight from the south, in addition to a return of LIFR/IFR marine stratus. Surface pressure gradients tighten this afternoon, strengthening north/northwest winds across the area with gusts up to 25 kt at any given terminal. Winds gradually ease after 03-06z Tue. PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with mostly clear skies through the TAF period. Some high clouds this evening. Northwesterly winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt this afternoon/evening. -Alviz && .MARINE...High pressure will maintain northerly winds across the waters through the week, breeziest today and Tuesday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across all marine zones through 1700 Tuesday, with northerly winds forecast to gust up to 30 kt. An exception is the Columbia River Bar, where the Small Craft Advisory ends 2300 Monday due to winds easing below 20 kt. The strongest winds over the waters are forecast south of Cape Falcon, where pressure gradients are tightest. Expect steep and choppy seas 8 to 10 ft at 7-8 seconds through Tuesday. Seas subside to around 4-6 ft mid-week onward as winds weaken. -Alviz && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ251>253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

143 FXUS66 KMFR 302353 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 453 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...01/00Z TAFs...The marine layer remains over the marine waters, along the immediate coast and into parts of Coos Bay, including North Bend. This is resulting in LIFR conditions that are likely to persist into Tuesday morning. For inland locations, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. However, scattered thunderstorms have developed across northern California and east of the Cascades. Storm motion is generally east southeast to west northwest today, so expect storms to move northwestward eventually impacting portions of Jackson & Josephine counties around 00z-03z. Strong gusty erratic outflows up to 30-40 kts are possible with these storms along with hail. Roseburg will likely be too far north to see any activity, but both KMFR and KLMT will have decent chances (40-50%) at being impacted by thunderstorms late this afternoon through early evening. Current guidance fizzles out thunderstorm activity after 03z, but isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible overnight into Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, expect the return of marine stratus to similar areas again tonight, resulting in IFR/LIFR conditions. /BR-y && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 229 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ DISCUSSION...Heat is building across the area early this afternoon with many areas several degrees above where they were this time yesterday, especially over the East Side. Meanwhile, day cloud phase distinction RGB satellite imagery is showing convective initiation occurring in portions of NorCal early this afternoon ahead of weak forcing and enhanced moist, southerly mid-level flow associated with low pressure off the California coast. Radar is showing a few pop-up cells in Siskiyou, Modoc, Trinity and Shasta counties which are realizing the instability. It will take some more time to destabilize across SW Oregon since there is a cap in the lowest levels (below about 800 mb) per the 18z balloon sounding. We may never completely erode this cap, but there should still be some elevated cells that get going later this afternoon across the area. Expect isolated thunderstorms to become more numerous across Modoc and Siskiyou County into mid-afternoon with continued motion off to the W-NW. These will continue to develop, while others form along and near the Siskiyous Mtns/Cascades and eventually spread across SW Oregon. With strong surface heating, expect a pretty dry sub cloud layer and resultant robust DCAPE (~1500 J/KG), so these storms will have the ability to produce some strong gusty outflows of 40-60 mph. In addition to strong wind gusts, storms can produce hail and numerous cloud to ground lightning flashes. It should be noted that despite the drier surface layer to start, PWATS increase to 0.75-1.00, so storms that have some dry lightning initially will become wetter as time goes on and could produce heavy downpours. Expect main thunderstorm action to be from 3-8 pm this evening with activity waning after sunset due to the loss of instability. The main question always seems to be how much activity will be able to come off the terrain (Cascades/Siskiyous) and into the valleys. There are competing forces at work here, steering flow is on the weak side and the instability drops off to the NW, where there`s also lots of convection inhibition (CIN). Think these storms peak in intensity in the 5-8 pm range, then will tend to fizzle as the sun sets. It appears that the Roseburg area will be on the NW fringes of t-storm chances (low probability around 15%). Highest probabilities will be in NorCal (60-70%) and around 40% chance here in Medford. Keep an eye to sky this afternoon and evening and if you see lightning or hear thunder, seek shelter. Activity remains possible tonight, but think mostly showers as opposed to thunderstorms. Can there be a thunderstorm? Yes, but just not as widespread as the storms this afternoon/evening. Tomorrow, the low offshore will move closer to the coast (near SF Bay) and this will maintain a southerly flow of moist air into the region. As such, we`re expecting another round of showers and thunderstorms, with just a slight edge eastward compared to today. Basically, this means highest probability of thunderstorms will be near Cascades/Siskiyous and points S & E. Model CAMS peg areas from central Siskiyou County NNE up the Highway 97 corridor for the main risk of lightning Tuesday afternoon/evening. Activity on either side of this (far East Side and for valleys immediately west of the Cascades) should be more isolated in nature. With all the showers and thunderstorms around the area, this will cause temperatures to be lower than they are today. The trade off though will be a little higher humidity, so it might feel just as warm if not warmer than today. Main risks with storms on Tuesday will be similar to today - gusty winds, small hail, cloud to ground lightning and downpours. Models show a kicker trough in the NE Pacific that should push the upper trough/low onshore into California Tuesday night into Wednesday. As such, flow aloft will shift more to the WSW west of the Cascades and this should keep activity farther to east over the East Side (mostly S and E of Klamath Falls) both Wednesday and Thursday afternoons/evenings. This will also bring continued cooling to the area (generally around -5F each day compared to Tuesday). There`s still some uncertainty with respect to the 4th of July. Models are showing generally a WSW flow aloft with another trough swinging through. The majority of the guidance keeps this trough farther north, so thunder chances remain across NE sections of the CWA or even just out of the area. But, a minority of solutions show a somewhat deeper trough and the potential for showers/thunder farther south across the East Side (perhaps Modoc County). For now, have gone with just slight chances across the northern part of the East Side, but keep checking back for updates to see if it impacts the evening anywhere for fireworks shows. It appears as if west side areas should remain dry. We`ll have to wait and see if the marine layer will be deep enough for stratus along the coast. Overall, temps will be near or just above normal levels for this time of year, which means highs in the mid to upper 80s for most valleys west of the Cascades and in the low 80s for populated East Side areas. Coastal locations will have highs in the mid to upper 60s. This weekend into early next week, models are showing at least some troughiness hanging along the coast with the upper ridge setting up over the Four Corners of the SW U.S. ECMWF guidance has a stronger upper low off the California coast, which might suggest better thunder chances once again. But, uncertainty in position and amount of moisture are wildcards at the moment, so the forecast remains dry for now. -Spilde MARINE...A thermal trough will maintain moderate to strong north winds (including gales) and steep to very steep wind-driven seas through at least Tuesday evening. A gale warning is in effect south of Port Orford with small craft advisory conditions expected elsewhere. Improving conditions could start as early as Wednesday but are more likely by Thursday. -Spilde FIRE WEATHER...Updated 230 PM PDT Monday, June 30, 2025...The main concern ahead will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms for most areas away from the coast into this evening, then again Tuesday afternoon and evening in northern California, and Cascades east in Oregon. An 18z (11am pdt) upper air launch was done and it shows a dry layer below 500mb with a small cap just under 500mb, and a low level inversion. The low level inversion will break, and the question will be the small cap around 500mb. Given the expected increasing instability and trigger, the expectation is for the that small cap to be broken, thus providing the opportunity for storm development. The latest meso analysis shows areas where mid level lapse rates are highest gradually moving northward. Right now the highest vales are in northern California, and southern Fire zones 624 and 625. Mid level lapse rates basically is a measure of the temperature change with height and the higher the value, the more unstable the atmosphere. Satellite image and radar are showing thunderstorms firing up in northern California. The trend is for storms to increase in number and coverage area as the afternoon progresses. Storms early this afternoon may not produce much of any precipitation to start, then the chance for wetting rain could increase mid to late this afternoon and evening. The main reason for the increase chance in wetting rain is steering winds will be light and high moisture content throughout the column of the atmosphere. Thus, storms will be slow movers providing the bigger window of opportunity for storms to produce locally moderate to heavy precipitation. However, that does not mean that all storms will produce wetting rain. Some could also produce little to no rain, because of the dry sub layer below. The general consensus among the CAMS (convective allowing models) that show simulated reflectivity show storms developing in northern Cal this afternoon, then migrating north towards portions of the Rogue Valley late this afternoon and early evening. Keep in mind, lightning strikes outside of the precipitation cores are possible. Due to the prolonged period of dry and warm to hot weather, lightning efficiency will be high to very high for fire starts. We also have to be mindful of gusty and erratic outflow winds near and away from the core of thunderstorms. Given the above mentioned and increasing confidence for both The Red Flag Warning for this afternoon and evening remains in effect and the Fire Weather Watch for abundant lightning on dry fuels Tuesday afternoon/early evening has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning or the same zones Tuesday afternoon/early evening. Please see RFWMFR for more details. It will be hot again this afternoon with highs in the upper 90s to low triple digits for the interior westside valleys and low to mid 90s east of the Cascades. Tonight, some evidence points towards the potential for nocturnal storms, but confidence on this is low and it will be something that we`ll need to monitor. The most likely scenario will be isolated convective showers later this evening and overnight tonight. Tuesday, the thunderstorm threat is expected to be along and east of the Cascades and northern California. Guidance and instability parameters are in better agreement suggesting storms could be isolated to scattered Tuesday afternoon into early Tuesday evening in the same Fire zones as what were expecting this afternoon/early this evening. Like today, steering winds will be light, and unlike today, there should be more available moisture in the column of the atmosphere, with PWATS between 1.00-1.25". Therefore storms Tuesday will be slow to move with locally heavy rain. Wednesday, the focus for storms should be confined to portions of Lake county, and portions of Northern California as the upper low to the south gets kicked eastward as an upstream upper trough moves in from the west. Even then, storms are expected to be isolated. The concern for thunderstorms could carry over into Thursday as an upper trough approaches the area from the west with the best chance for storms along and east of the Cascades and portions of northern Cal. -Petrucelli && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ280-281-284. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376. && $$

440 FXUS66 KEKA 302152 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 252 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Fire weather danger has been enhanced by mid level moisture and instability. Red Flag Warnings are in place through Tuesday night for the interior areas. Temperatures ease through the week && .DISCUSSION...With an upper level low offshore of Southern-Central California, the effects of high pressure have become muted. Temperatures have eased a bit as clouds/moisture are being pulled into the area with the top edge of the cyclonic/CCW flow. The moisture at mid levels has increased steep lapse rates and given buoyancy to air parcels, free convection at upper elevations with high base thunderstorms could produce dry lightning and/or downdrafts which could further exacerbate fire ignitions with downburst or outflows as cold dense air drops out of the core. As of this afternoon, isolated lightning and convective cells have produced radar returns traveling NW through Trinity county and our neighbors in Siskiyou, verifying previous forecasts and model soundings. Confidence has increased for the convective outlook for tonight and Tuesday with SPC including our CWA in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms with gusty/damaging winds from the previously mentioned outflow ~60mph. We have upgraded the FW.A for Tuesday into a Red Flag Warning matching the current FW.W with the same fire weather zones 204, 211, 212, 277 and 283. Zone 203 has been included for Tuesday with HREF including Del Norte in their probability of thunder, albeit slight. NBM also confirms high CAPE values in the 2000-2800 j/kg range for interior Del Norte. /EYS && .AVIATION...18Z TAFs: A shallow marine layer continued to result in LIFR conditions at coastal airports today. Variable mid layer clouds convection may disrupt the layer north of Cape Mendocino this evening. For how long is not known. Visible satellite imagery showed areas of stratus and fog lingering along the shoreline this afternoon and suspect LIFR conditions to quickly redevelop this evening with loss of daytime heating and mixing. LIFR ceilings below 500 feet and vsby`s 1/2SM or less are probable overnight into early Tuesday at coastal terminals. VFR concisions are forecast to prevail inland. A cutoff upper low will meander off the central CA coast tonight into Tuesday and will contribute to inland shower and thunderstorm activity. Some of this activity may hold together as it makes its way northwestward closer to Humboldt and Del Norte coast, but confidence remains too low at this time for TAF inclusion. There may be at the least gusty outflow winds as the storms pulse stronger on the higher inland terrain. Sonoma county stratus will once again make a run for the Mendo border overnight. Coastal low clouds and fog may also spread into the Anderson valley. && .MARINE...Large and steep waves are forecast to continue across the waters through mid week. The one exception is Mendocino nearshore waters where small scale eddies will continue to result in southerlies. Highest waves around 14 feet are expected over the northern outer waters where a hazardous seas warning remains in effect. Northerly winds begin to ramp up tonight into Tuesday and a gale warning for gusts to 40 kt has been hoisted for pzz470. Greater uncertainty for gales exists for the southern outer waters (pzz475). Northerly winds and steep waves will continue for the latter portion of the week, but should trend down. && .FIRE WEATHER...Hot, dry conditions continue to ease for the next few days as low pressure morphs the ridging regime. High temperatures ease throughout the remainder of the week. Thunderstorms are the primary concern over Trinity and interior Humboldt. Other counties like Del Norte and Lake have less of a chance but are still being included as models fade at their boarders in probability. Convective cells are currently being observed via satellite and radar as of 20z today. Red Flag Warnings are in place for the remainder of the day and lasting into 11pm tonight. The fire weather watch for Tuesday has been upgraded to a Red Flag Warning and includes zone 203, interior Del Norte along with Trinity, interior Humboldt, eastern Mendocino and Northern Lake counties. /EYS && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ204- 211-212-277-283. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ203- 204-211-212-277-283. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ450. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ470. Gale Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ475. Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday evening for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

341 FXUS66 KMTR 010154 CCA AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service San Francisco CA 654 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 128 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 - Typical marine layer stratus pattern this week. - 10 percent chance for dry thunderstorms in the North Bay Tuesday night. - Near normal temperatures with a cooling trend late week. - Breezy northwest winds Thursday afternoon and evening. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 120 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Skies are sunny across the district with a 1200 foot marine layer along the immediate coast. Convection noted this morning remains offshore, well west of the Sonoma coast and continues to move away from our coastal waters. Well to our north up in Trinity county some of the first convection over land associated with the upper low west of Big Sur is starting to initiate and that is being captured fairly well by the CAM models. In terms of sensible weather for the Bay Area its a pretty seasonal afternoon with temps 60s coast, 70s bayside, 80s inland and 90s for the interior hot spots of the Central Coast. For tonight the well defined marine layer along the coast will spread into the coastal valleys once again. With a depth under 1500 feet it shouldn`t spread too far inland. Similar to the last few evenings some coastal drizzle and fog is likely during the evening and overnight hours. For Tuesday the upper low wont move too much but inch closer the coast. Instability rotating around the low will remain focused over the Sierra and mountains of northern California, keeping the best thunderstorm chances over the higher terrain (where Red Flag Warnings are currently in effect) and likely avoiding the Bay Area through at least Tuesday afternoon. Thus expect another sunny and seasonable day for the first of July across the Bay Area with no unseasonably hot temps forecast. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 120 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 About a 10 percent chance that a stray thunderstorm or two could sneak into extreme northern Sonoma or Napa counties Tuesday evening per some of the latest HRRR/HREF runs while even the gfs shows some mucape bullseyes over northern Napa county around 03z Weds. All that being said the most likely scenario is any convection stays north and east of the Bay Area. However, any slight bobble in the location of the upper low could send a vort lobe over mid-level instability further south than currently expected. On Weds the upper low will finally eject and the main flow will turn more westerly, ending the t-storm threat and associated instability. By Weds afternoon weak shortwave ridge will try and build over the Central Coast. Yet another late season trough is forecast to approach the region by Thursday. This one will be more progressive (versus cut-off) with slightly cooler air aloft. Main concern would be slightly stronger westerly winds Thursday afternoon and evening to coincide with any pre 4th of July activities. Temperatures will remain near or slightly below normal and the marine layer could deepen to 3000 feet or so later Thursday into Friday. Trough axis passes overhead on 4th of July meaning no unseasonably hot temps to contend with mainly 70s and 80s inland. Quiet and uneventful weather forecast through the weekend with a general trough in place at least through July 7th. By around July 8-10th some hints that the Four-Corners ridge could start to expand and build some heat farther northward but confidence remains low to medium given the resiliency of the West Coast trough the last 4-5 weeks. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 419 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Expect VFR conditions for the remainder of the afternoon and early evening with the exception of HAF. Breezy diurnal winds will ease after sunset. Onshore flow increases toward the end of the TAF period Tuesday evening, when Bay Area winds will increase to around 15 knots. Vicinity of SFO...VFR for the remainder of the afternoon and evening with gusty winds up to 25 knots, easing around sunset. Marine layer has been struggling to reach SFO and OAK, so confidence is low that IFR/LIFR cigs will develop early Tuesday morning but it is possible. Breezy onshore flow will lift winds to 15 knots or higher toward the end of the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the remainder of the afternoon with IFR/LIFR cigs expected to develop in the early evening hours and persist through the overnight hours into the early afternoon on Tuesday. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Saturday) Issued at 419 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Locally breezy to gusty conditions are possible in the afternoon and evening across the San Pablo Bay and Suisun Bay with a Small Craft Advisory in effect. Significant wave heights will build early Tuesday morning as northwest winds strengthen and gradually spread across the outer waters through the rest of the week. Winds will be strongest across the northernmost outer waters with winds strengthening to near gale force by midweek. Winds and seas will then remain elevated across the coastal waters through the end of this week and into the next. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RW LONG TERM....RW AVIATION...JM MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

510 FXUS66 KOTX 302344 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 444 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot Tuesday including moderate to locally major HeatRisk. - A 15% chance of thunderstorms producing little rain Wednesday - Dry and Windy conditions Wednesday in Central Washington with elevated to critical fire weather concerns. - Not as hot Thursday and Independence Day with high temperatures in the 80s && .SYNOPSIS... Hot Temperatures will occur on Tuesday with high temperatures in the 90s with the hottest locations near 100 degrees. A weak weather system tracking through Wednesday will deliver a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms producing little rain. Dry and windy conditions will also lead to increased fire weather concerns on Wednesday in Central Washington. Temperatures will cool into the 80s for Thursday and Independence Day. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Tuesday: Hot and dry conditions will be the rule as dry southwesterly flow promotes additional warming. Tuesday will be the hottest day this week with high temperatures reaching the 90s to near 100 degrees. Moderate to locally major HeatRisk continued to be forecast with Moses Lake, Lewiston, and downtown Wenatchee and Omak some locations forecast to hit the 100F mark. Tuesday Night through Wednesday morning: A mid level wave over Oregon gets picked up by an approaching upper trough, with an axis of elevated moisture/instability tracking along and east of a line from Moses Lake to Grand Coulee to Colville Wednesday morning. CAM`s models are picking up on elevated convection mostly in the form of high based showers, but with some embedded higher reflectivies indicative of potential lightning. With 700-500mb MU CAPE of 200-400 J/KG and it being within the 0 to -20C thermal layer, can not ruled out a handful of lightning strikes across Eastern Washington into the ID Panhandle. With the fast storm motion, and dry sub cloud layer, rain reaching the ground is expected to be brief and light. This raises the concern of potential new fire starts with any lightning that does occur. Wednesday afternoon and evening: Attention turns to critical fire weather conditions in Central WA as pressure gradients tighten with the approaching trough and weakening ridge over the region. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for the Okanogan Valley down through the Wenatchee area, Waterville Plateau, and Moses Lake area. Dry and windy conditions will lead to the potential for rapid fire spread with any new fire starts. Thursday through Monday: Drier and more stable air moves into the region on Thursday as an upper low moving into Central BC results in increasing westerly flow. Heading into Independence Day another mid level wave is shown by the ensembles to pass to our south across Oregon. The bulk of the models maintain dry weather across the region. Although it is worth noting that some of the ECMWF ensembles track precipitation further north into SE WA and the south ID Panhandle, with 20 percent of the members producing a wetting rain for Pullman. Currently the forecast leans to the majority of a dry scenario but this potential will continue to be monitored. Heading into the weekend it`s a similar story with dry conditions most favored although some weak impulses moving through the area will need to be monitored for possible convection but 80-90% of the ensembles support a dry scenario. JW && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: High pressure will deliver clear skies and light terrain driven winds through much of the TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in conditions remaining VFR across the Inland Northwest. JDC ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 61 96 63 91 58 84 / 0 0 0 20 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 60 94 63 91 58 81 / 0 0 0 20 10 0 Pullman 57 94 61 87 54 81 / 0 0 0 20 10 0 Lewiston 65 102 70 96 63 89 / 0 0 0 20 10 10 Colville 53 94 54 91 49 84 / 0 0 0 20 0 0 Sandpoint 55 91 57 88 54 81 / 0 0 0 20 10 0 Kellogg 65 91 67 87 60 81 / 0 0 0 20 10 10 Moses Lake 61 100 63 95 57 88 / 0 0 0 20 0 0 Wenatchee 70 99 68 92 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 62 99 62 95 56 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Central Chelan County- Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area- Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley- Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Okanogan County. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Coeur d`Alene Area- Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties- Lewiston Area-Northern Panhandle. && $$

417 FXUS66 KPDT 302330 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 430 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .Updated Aviation Discussion. .AVIATION...00Z TAFS...VFR conditions currently across all sites, which will stay the course through the period. Winds will stay light and below 10 kts for most sites, with the exception of KRDM/KBDN/KDLS experiencing gusts up to 20-25 kts toward the end of the period. KRDM/KBDN will also experience gusts up to 20 kts late this afternoon before dissipating this evening. SCT-BKN ceilings of 20-25kft will build in this evening and overnight as a system approaching from the south. 75 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 156 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025/ SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...Heat returns to the forecast area as the PacNW finds itself wedged between high pressure ridging to the north and a cutoff low to the south over California. Such a setup is ripe for not only hot temperatures through Tuesday, but also for elevated thunderstorms for central Oregon, spreading eastward through Wednesday as the northeastward progression of this low amplifies SW flow and thus moisture advection over the forecast area. Not much change in heat headlines, as Heat Advisories remain in effect for the Basin, Gorge, Yakima/Kittitas Valleys, and north central Oregon. Tuesday continues to look like the hottest day, with much of the Basin expected to eclipse the century mark on Tuesday afternoon. Once high pressure is nudged aside heading into Wednesday, temperatures are expected to trend toward more seasonable readings. Keeping an eye on the shower and thunderstorm threat for central Oregon starting this evening as a result of SW flow becoming more prominent over the region. Latest HREF guidance generally keeps convective activity south of the forecast area tonight, before ramping up tomorrow afternoon and spreading as far north as the southern Blues and as far east as the John Day Valley. Bullseye currently appears to be Deschutes and Crook Counties, at least for our forecast area. PWATs are on the higher end (0.7-0.9 inches) owing to strong SW flow aloft, and a slower storm motion would suggest more of a wetting rain potential, but with convective parameters as supportive of convection as they are (plentiful mid- level moisture with MUCAPEs reaching up to 1000 J/kg), have elected to err on the side of caution and issue a Red Flag Warning for at least one central Oregon zone (OR700) for dry lightning. QPF falls off quite a bit to the north of this "bullseye," so am not confident enough in widespread wetting rains to completely negate the dry lightning effect. Confidence in wetting rains increases for storms closer to the Cascades. On Wednesday, winds increase as high pressure breaks down. Temps cool, but with the boundary layer still dry from Tuesday`s heat, winds have the potential to combine with low RHs in the teens to create critical fire weather conditions. Have opted to issue a Fire Weather Watch for the Washington Columbia Basin and Kittitas Valley for Wednesday as a result. RHs do seem high enough to preclude critical conditions in adjacent zones, and winds/RHs are admittedly borderline in the watch zones, but the overall setup does at least support elevated fire spread concerns. Will see how models evolve with regards to the RH and winds on Wednesday and adjust the Watch accordingly. Evans/74 LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Ensembles suggest the potential for another shortwave trough to cross through the PacNW on Thursday, making for another chance for showers and isolated thunderstorms across mainly the eastern mountains. The thunderstorm risk will be downplayed, however, due to weakening instability, stemming from lower lapse rates as this relatively progressive synoptic pattern shaping up helps stabilize the atmosphere to a degree. Ensemble clusters generally suggest a benign pattern heading into the Holiday weekend, split between a weak zonal or SW pattern, but neither strong enough to produce shower chances for either the Cascades or eastern mountains. Expect generally seasonable temperatures, with winds slackening after Thursday as the progressive nature of the pattern lightens up. Evans/74 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 64 100 67 93 / 0 0 10 10 ALW 68 99 70 92 / 0 0 10 20 PSC 63 102 66 96 / 0 0 0 10 YKM 65 100 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 63 102 68 95 / 0 0 10 10 ELN 65 99 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 57 96 55 87 / 0 10 20 10 LGD 60 96 63 89 / 0 0 10 20 GCD 61 97 60 90 / 0 10 30 20 DLS 68 98 65 85 / 0 0 10 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ041-044-507-508-510. Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ700. WA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for WAZ024-026>029-521. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for WAZ690-691. && $$ SHORT TERM...74 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...75

472 FXUS65 KREV 301942 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1242 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Above normal temperatures persist across the region with widespread minor to moderate HeatRisk present today. * Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into evening, mainly in northeastern California with lesser chances south around the Sierra and into the Tahoe Basin. * A minor cooldown begins tomorrow through the holiday, with daily afternoon precipitation chances in the region through at least Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... A couple more days with above average temperatures, and Moderate HeatRisk. Make sure to stay hydrated today and tomorrow, take frequent breaks in shade if you are in the sun, and remember to look before you lock for children and pets in vehicles. These toasty days ahead will moderate by midweek toward more seasonal averages, with the coolest day looking to be the holiday. As we look beyond the holiday, temperatures will be on the rise to well-above average once again. Showers this afternoon may begin to appear in far northern Lassen and Modoc counties and possibly into far northern Washoe, where chances will be between 15-25% for today. Further south, along the Sierra and into the Tahoe Basin, there are chances around 5-15%. Showers will begin to develop around 1 PM this afternoon, with some showers potentially lingering around the Tahoe Basin and into Alpine County into the overnight hours. However, recent guidance has suggested the overnight shower chances have dropped to 10% or less. In areas where showers do form, be aware of the skies as lightning and gusty outflows are the main threat with summer afternoon showers. The shower chances shift slightly eastward for Tuesday, with chances as high as 20-40% for Lassen, Modoc and northern Washoe counties. Chances for the Sierra and Tahoe Basin will range 10-25%, with higher chances in the northern Sierra into the Tahoe Basin. Reno-Carson-Minden area will see afternoon shower chances around 10- 20% as well. Wednesday, we start seeing the showers become more widespread, but chances stay in the range of 10-25% for most of western Nevada and northeastern California. Some showers may even spread as far east as the Basin and Range, with 10-15% chances there. Thursday, showers appear in blended guidance along the Oregon border, and for the holiday. Once we settle into next weekend, a drying trend emerges as high pressure resumes across the region. One final note about the shower chances, there may be little precipitation that hits the ground, with the best day to see wetting rains on Wednesday. Any storms that fire may be of the dry thunder variety today and Tuesday. Gusty winds Tuesday may increase the Fire Weather concern for Lassen, Modoc and northern Washoe, as any spark that ignites may easily carry in the gusty winds. See the Fire Weather section below for more details. HRICH && .AVIATION... * VFR conditions through the afternoon, when gusty westerly winds return around 00Z, to about 20-25 kts. For terminals across western Nevada, heat-density issues may arise today and tomorrow afternoon. For KSVE, a 15-25% chance of afternoon showers exists today and tomorrow. Shower chances also appear for KTRK/KTVL Tuesday afternoon, and widespread for all terminals on Wednesday. Any shower may have the potential to produce gusty and erratic outflows up to 50+ kts in it`s vicinity. HRICH && .FIRE WEATHER... * Isolated dry lightning and strong, erratic outflow winds with gusts of 50+ mph are possible (15-25% chances) for far northern Lassen County into far northern Washoe County during the afternoon and evening hours today. Storms today will see the potential for dry lightning strikes due to high storm bases and fast storm motions. Lesser chances for isolated dry thunderstorms (10-15%) are also seen in the Sierra down to the Tahoe Basin, Alpine and northern Mono County late today. * Coverage of storms expands east into the Sierra front on Tuesday afternoon and farther into western NV for Wednesday afternoon. These storms will be a mix of wet and dry storms with the best chances for dry strikes expected again in areas of northern Lassen to northern Washoe County on Tuesday. * Areas of localized critical conditions are possible by mid-week as breezy and dry conditions return mid-week. -078/Fuentes/HRICH && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

655 FXUS66 KSTO 302035 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 135 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... Low chance for mountain thunderstorms through mid-week. Lightning on dry fuels may lead to easier fire starts. Otherwise warm and dry weather continues with periodically breezy onshore winds. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk persists into the middle of next week. Quiet and cooler end to the week. && .KEY MESSAGES... * Early to Mid Week: -Above normal temperatures persist through Wednesday with widespread Moderate HeatRisk, although increased onshore flow brings some relief to the Delta vicinity -Slight (10-30%) probability of thunderstorms through Wednesday during the afternoon and early evening hours across the mountains of interior NorCal. Highest thunderstorm probabilities over the northern mountains on Monday-Tuesday. Thunderstorm chances expand farther south into the Sierra by Wednesday. -Lightning on dry fuels may lead to easier fire starts. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the northern Coast Range, Shasta County mountains and Burney Basin from 11 AM - 8 PM Tuesday. * Late Next Week: -Quiet weather late week with temperatures becoming seasonal to slightly below average -Coolest day will be Friday .Changes from previous forecast... -No major changes in the forecast && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Surface winds 12 kts or less, except in the Delta vicinity where southwest gusts 20 to 25 kts are expected through 14Z Tuesday. Isolated mountain thunderstorms possible across northern/central Sacramento Valley and surrounding terrain through 10z Tuesday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for Burney Basin and Northeast Plateau in Shasta County Including Northwest Lassen NF north of Lassen NP-Eastern Mendocino NF-Eastern Portion of Shasta/Trinity NF-Northern Sierra Foothills from 1000 to 3000 Ft. Includes portions of Shasta-Trinity and Butte Units-Northern Sierra Including Lassen NP and Plumas and Lassen NF/S West of the Sierra Crest (West of Evans Peak-Grizzly Peak-Beckworth Peak)-Southeast Edge Shasta-Trinity NF and Western Portions of Tehama-Glenn Unit. && $$

786 FXUS65 KMSO 301937 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 137 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Hot temperatures through Wednesday - Gusty storms in Lemhi County & SW Montana Tuesday afternoon - Thunderstorms across the region each day Wednesday onward Hot daytime temperatures will persist through Wednesday as high pressure remains over the Northern Rockies. Warm overnight lows are also expected in the lower valleys of north-central Idaho, where a heat advisory is in effect. Moisture will begin increasing across Lemhi County and southwest Montana on Tuesday, with high-resolution models now indicating potential thunderstorm development. Any storms that form are expected to be high-based and will likely produce gusty outflow winds. The ridge shifts eastward Wednesday, setting up southwest flow- a classic thunderstorm pattern for central Idaho and western Montana. With the recent heat and dry conditions, strong winds will be the main threat at first. Machine learning and AI models continue to indicate some risk of severe storms Wednesday. Model guidance agrees that southwesterly flow will persist through the week and into the weekend, but differs on the exact timing and strength of thunderstorm-producing shortwaves. This pattern favors daily thunderstorms, some potentially strong with gusty winds, heavy rain, and hail. If you have outdoor plans, stay weather- aware and have a plan in case a storm approaches. && .AVIATION...Hot daytime temperatures will continue under strong high pressure, which may contribute to density altitude concerns. High-resolution models now indicating potential thunderstorm development across Lemhi County and southwest Montana Tuesday afternoon, which may impact KSMN and KBTM. Any storms that form are expected to be high-based and will likely produce gusty outflow winds. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT Tuesday for Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River Region...Orofino/Grangeville Region. && $$

279 FXUS65 KBOI 010257 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 857 PM MDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .DISCUSSION...A few thunderstorms remain active this evening along the Idaho/Nevada border, associated with a deepening upper- level trough off the Pacific Northwest coast and an influx of midlevel moisture from the southwestern U.S. Thus far, storms have been short-lived and primarily driven by surface heating, with limited shear across the region. A peak wind gust of 50 MPH was reported earlier in southwest Owyhee County, though most storms have produced gusts in the 30 to 40 MPH range and little to no measurable precipitation. Convection will taper off after sunset, but another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected to develop by sunrise Tuesday across southeast Oregon with the approach of a weak embedded shortwave. The potential for stronger thunderstorms increases Tuesday afternoon (30% chance), particularly across south-central Idaho, where modest instability (CAPE) and improved deep-layer shear (06 km) will coincide with an additional shortwave passage. The Western Magic Valley will be most favored for strong convection capable of producing wind gusts up to 60 MPH. && .AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening near the NV border and lower Magic Valley with gusts up to 40 kt. High density altitude due to heat. Additional isolated showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday across SE Oregon and higher terrain of SW Idaho. Surface winds: NW-NE 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: variable 10 kt or less, becoming E-S 10-20 kt this evening by 06z. KBOI...VFR. High density altitude due to heat. Surface winds: NW 5- 10 kt, becoming variable less than 8 kt this evening 04z and after. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Wednesday night...An upper level trough remains off the CA coast with unusual isolated thunderstorms over the marine layer continuing this afternoon. This system is bringing mid level moisture and smoke to the area from the south. A 10-20 percent chance of thunderstorms is forecast this afternoon along the NV border and south central OR, where cumulus clouds are beginning to form this afternoon. Gusty outflow winds up to 45 mph possible with the storms this afternoon along the NV border and western Harney County. Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue into Tuesday morning, mainly over eastern OR with sprinkles possible over southwest Idaho. A dry slot with the system moves into southeast OR and southwest ID by Tuesday afternoon, limiting thunderstorm threat, and allowing warmer air. Temperatures will be in the low 100s in the Treasure Valley and Weiser River Basin on Tuesday where a Heat Advisory remains in effect. A shortwave moves into the Pacific NW on Wednesday, bringing a weak cold front, and a 20-30 percent chance of showers and storms. Main threats with the front will be gusty winds and gusty erratic outflow winds from thunderstorms up to 50 mph. LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Forecast confidence beyond Thursday is low. But the models bring in shortwaves at different times during the Thursday to Friday window keeping a threat of showers and thunderstorms over the area through Saturday. With those systems, temperatures lower to near normal by Friday and continue through Sunday before warming 5-10 degrees by Monday. Gusty outflow winds will be the main threats with the thunderstorms. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM MDT Tuesday IDZ012-014-033. OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM MDT /10 AM PDT/ to 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/ Tuesday ORZ064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...JDS AVIATION.....JY SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....KA

303 FXUS65 KLKN 301929 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1229 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1229 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 * Heat Advisory for Southwestern Elko County, Northern Eureka County, Northern Lander County, and Humboldt County today * Red Flag Warning for Northern Nye County, Southern Lander County, and Southern Eureka County Tuesday * Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses in the valleys of Northern Nevada Tuesday afternoon * A few strong thunderstorms expected each afternoon and evening today through Saturday && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Monday) Issued at 1229 PM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A ridge of high pressure will extend northwestward across Northern Nevada this afternoon and tonight. Isolated, dry thunderstorms should remain north of the Interstate 80 corridor this afternoon into this evening. A Heat Advisory is in effect for Southwestern Elko County, Northern Eureka County, Northern Lander County, and Humboldt County until 9 PM PDT this evening. An upper-level area of low pressure will meander around the Eastern Pacific Ocean Tuesday, just off the coast of Central California. High temperatures throughout Northern Nevada Tuesday afternoon will be around ten degrees above normal for this time of year. A Heat Advisory may be required. Here are probabilities of maximum temperatures of 95 degrees or higher for select locations in Northern Nevada on Tuesday, July 1st, 2025: Elko - 100% Winnemucca - 100% Carlin - 100% Crescent Valley - 100% Battle Mountain - 99% West Wendover - 97% McDermitt - 95% Montello - 95% Denio - 90% Spring Creek - 75% In addition, there is a major risk of wildfires in parts of Central Nevada Tuesday due to south wind gusts near 35 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 5 percent. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Northern Nye County, Southern Lander County, and Southern Eureka County from 11 AM PDT Tuesday morning until 8 PM PDT Tuesday evening. The aforementioned upper-level area of low pressure will make landfall over Southern California Wednesday. This cyclone aloft will open up into a trough of low pressure Thursday as it moves eastward across Southern Nevada. A trough of low pressure will pass eastward over the Pacific Northwest Friday. A ridge of high pressure will build eastward across Northern Nevada this weekend. Isolated, dry thunderstorms this afternoon and this evening will transition to an isolated mix of wet and dry thunderstorms each afternoon and evening Wednesday through Saturday as atmospheric moisture increases. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding a moderate risk for heat-related illnesses in the valleys of Northern Nevada Tuesday afternoon. High forecast confidence in a critical risk of wildfires in parts of Central Nevada Tuesday. Moderate forecast confidence regarding the location thunderstorms each afternoon and evening Wednesday through Saturday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) VFR conditions are expected at all terminals through Tuesday afternoon. Isolated high-based thunderstorms at KEKO and KELY Monday afternoon may create erratic gusty winds in and near storms until early evening. Afternoon wind gusts in the range of 22-25KTs are anticipated at all terminals until after sunset Monday night. KWMC and KEKO will see gusts until after midnight before diminishing but sunrise Tuesday morning. Wind gusts return Tuesday afternoon with stronger speeds of near 30Kts forecast especially for KTPH and KELY until later Tuesday evening. AMD NOT SKED for KELY due to visibility sensor issues. && .FIRE WEATHER... High based isolated dry thunderstorms are forecasted for zones 437/438/469/470 through Monday evening. Afternoon diurnal breezes will be stronger for zones 425/426/427 through Monday evening where gusts are expected to range 25-30 mph until after sunset. On Tuesday a Red Flag Warning has been issued for zones 426/427 due to critical fuels, RH values between 5 and 14%, and stronger wind gusts of 35-40 mph from 11AM PDT until 8PM PDT Tuesday night. Isolated dry thunderstorms are again forecast Tuesday afternoon for zones 425/437/438/469/470 until later Tuesday evening. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for NVZ030-036-038. Red Flag Warning from 11 AM PDT Tuesday morning until 8 PM PDT Tuesday evening for NVZ426-427. && $$ DISCUSSION...87 AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...99