742 FXUS66 KSEW 190433 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 833 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers give way to mostly dry and clearing conditions tonight. Cool temperatures Wednesday morning with areas of fog. Increasing easterly gap winds during the day Wednesday. A weak front moves in Wednesday night, but splits as it does so, bringing light precipitation. Additional systems reach the area Friday and into this weekend, with the potential for more substantial rain and accumulating snow in the mountain passes Sunday into early next week. A cooling trend looks to start next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... An upper level trough axis has moved east of the Cascades this evening. Skies have begun to clear across much of the lowlands. But light surface winds, a long night ahead, and plentiful low level moisture are expected to result in widespread low cloud development overnight along with areas of fog by morning. Apart from monitoring of fog development overnight, current forecasts have trends covered well. Previous discussion follows with update to aviation portion. 27 Radar imagery and surface analysis show a few very isolated showers, mostly across the northwest interior. Shower coverage will decrease tonight as a brief upper level ridge and associated surface high pressure system moves across the region. High pressure will quickly move inland tonight. As such, clouds will clear tonight. This, along with mostly light to calm winds at least early in the night will allow for areas of dense fog to develop into early Wednesday morning. The best chances of seeing fog will be across the Southwest Interior up through the Kitsap Peninsula and up towards the Seattle metro, in western Whatcom county, and along the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Satellite trends will be monitored tonight for the potential for any advisories. Additionally, low temperatures will likely drop a decent amount, reaching into the low to mid 30s, to near 40 in the urban metro. High pressure will remain over eastern Washington/southeastern British Columbia on Wednesday while a frontal system will approach the coast Wednesday night. Conditions will be dry during the day Wednesday. However, winds will begin to increase early Wednesday morning as offshore gradients increase. Winds look to peak early Wednesday afternoon. Maximum gusts through the gaps in the terrain may reach 25-35 mph, with locally up to 40-45 mph near North Bend. Since this is one of the few times this is expected to peak during the day, a wind advisory will be issued mainly for the North Bend area. Rain chances will begin to increase along the coast after around midnight Thursday, but as the front moves inland, it quickly begins to split and weaken as upper level support decreases. As such, rain will devolve rather quickly into scattered showers for the rest of the area Thursday morning. Precipitation accumulations will be small to negligible. Showers taper off Thursday night. Temperatures on Thursday will be a bit warmer, with highs in the low to mid 50s and lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Along the coast, large long period waves will arrive Thursday afternoon. However, currently guidance is suggesting that waves will be just short of high surf advisory criteria. Will continue to monitor trends as the waves develop and move into the area. Localized beach erosion and significant run-up may be possible on Thursday. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Precipitation chances reenter the forecast on Friday for the far northwest portions of the area as a system tracks across southern British Columbia. This will try to slowly sink southward on Saturday before an upper level trough moves into the area Sunday into Monday, which will bring the best for more substantial precipitation area-wide. Lowering snow levels will likely result in some accumulating snow at the passes. There are still considerable differences in the exact evolution of the weather this weekend, and the ensembles are still showing about a 50/50 split between between a cooler and perhaps drier solution vs warmer and wetter solution. What does look more likely is next week marking the start of a cooling trend through the week with highs back in the 40s and lows in the 30s. 62 && .AVIATION... An upper trough axis has moved east of the Cascades with north to northwest flow aloft developing over Western Washington as a weak upper ridge builds into the area. Weak surface gradients will become increasingly offshore during the day on Wednesday. Evening surface observations show little temperature/dew point separation. With higher level clouds clearing out, low clouds and fog are already beginning to form and will become progressively more widespread overnight into Wednesday morning. IFR or LIFR ceilings with areas of reduced surface visibility are expected 11Z-16Z for many interior lowland terminals. Low level offshore flow will begin to develop on Wednesday and this should help gradually erode the low clouds for a return to VFR most areas by midday Wednesday. KSEA...Weak surface winds overnight combined with some clearing and little temperature/dew point separation lend a good degree of confidence into the development of low clouds and fog. Satellite trends and regional observations point toward fog formation as opposed to stratus. Will incorporate this into the 06Z TAF package. Fog and low clouds may hang on into late morning before low level easterly flow breaks through near-surface inversions. Surface winds light N/NE this evening will become light and variable overnight then becoming E/NE 5 to 8 knots toward late morning...rising to 10 to 15 knots at times toward 00Z. 27 && .MARINE... Marine conditions look to remain rather tranquil until Wednesday morning as high pressure moves inland and a frontal system approaches the coastal waters from the west. Offshore gradients increase, which will bring Small Craft Advisory winds to the outer coastal waters as well as through the western Strait of Juan de Fuca. Winds will ease overnight Wednesday into Thursday morning as the front moves inland. Additional systems look to move across the northwest Friday into Saturday with potentially a stronger system Sunday into Monday, but there remain significant differences between model outcomes. Seas around 7 to 9 ft will begin to rise Thursday as a long period swell group arrives to the west coast. Wave heights will increase to 16 to 18 ft late Thursday (with a dominant period of around 15 to 16 s) and will slowly ease to around 10 to 12 ft Friday and remain around there through the weekend into early next week. 62 && .HYDROLOGY... No flooding is expected through the week ahead. Stronger weather systems moving into the region by early next week could bring periods of heavier rain and will be the next time frame to watch with respect to hydrologic concerns. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday for Foothills and Valleys of Central King County. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM PST Wednesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm && $$

495 FXUS66 KPQR 182309 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 309 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A weakening frontal band is sliding slowly eastward through the forecast area this afternoon, producing widespread mid-level cloud cover and virga. Precipitation reaching the ground has been extremely limited, and dry conditions will prevail for most locations. After a brief interruption Wednesday night into Thursday with a weak front brushing the region, a broader transition toward a wetter, more active pattern takes shape over the weekend and into early next week. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Thursday Night...The frontal zone draped from the north Oregon Coast toward southwest Washington continues to drift inland. There continues to be little to no precipitation from this frontal band as most of the moisture continues to evaporate within the sub-cloud layer. The trailing edge of the band now stretches from roughly Tillamook northeast to Kelso, and this feature will exit over the Cascades by late this evening. Temperatures will hold near seasonal norms through this afternoon, but the combination of clearing tendencies and a drier air mass tonight favors stronger radiational cooling. Early this morning, a brief period of freezing fog developed in the Eugene area, and the pattern tonight points to a similar a similar risk for the southern Willamette Valley. Fog potential overall is higher tonight than last night, especially for Salem southward. Could see pockets of dense fog elsewhere in interior valleys before sunrise Wednesday morning. Easterly winds within the Columbia River Gorge and along the coast will likely keep fog out of nearby terminals, although fog being advected within the Columbia River Gorge towards Troutdale and Portland is not out of the question. Wednesday will remain largely quiet, with temperatures a few degrees warmer than today. The next system arrives late Wednesday as a modest shortwave and surface front approach from the Northeast Pacific. Model consensus continues to show the upper trough splitting, but with the main closed low heading northeastward towards Juneau AK and a small shortwave trough that may form a small closed surface low drifts eastward towards the Pacific Northwest. Uncertainty remains regarding the location of the shortwave trough as it moves towards the PNW, as models suggest that it will move into either Washington or Oregon. This system will bring around 0.20 to 0.40 inches of rain to the coast and Coast Range, 0.10 to 0.20 inches within the interior valley, and 0.10 to 0.30 inches along the Cascades and Cascade foothills, with the higher amounts expected along the central Oregon Coast and Coast Range. Snow levels will stay above 5000 feet, keeping travel over the Cascade passes largely unaffected. .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday Morning...The end of the workweek begins under a broad but low-amplitude ridge, keeping the primary storm track pointed into British Columbia on Friday, focusing the better rain chances over western Washington and brushing only the far northern portions of our region. Farther south, shower chances remain lower but not zero as weak disturbances pass along the periphery of the ridge. Over the weekend, the ridge axis shifts inland and gradually breaks down as a series of Pacific waves drop southward. Ensemble guidance has grown more aligned in showing the storm track dipping south into Oregon by Sunday, introducing a steadily increasing probability of widespread rain. Confidence is higher for a more organized system late Sunday into Monday, which could deliver meaningful precipitation to the lowlands and accumulating snow to the Cascades. Cooling aloft within the approaching trough supports falling snow levels, and current probabilities show a 25-35% chance for at least 6 inches of new snow at the Cascade passes from late Sunday into early Tuesday morning. ~12 && .AVIATION...High pressure will maintain calm winds across the area throughout the TAF period, except around 15-18z Wednesday when easterly winds will develop at KTTD and KPDX, beginning at KTTD first and KPDX last. High clouds this morning will push east of the Cascades between 00-03z Wednesday, while cloud cover clears out west of the Cascades. This will set the stage for fog and low stratus to develop across much of the Willamette Valley between 06-12z Wednesday, likely impacting all inland terminals. The exception is at KTTD where easterly winds should prevent fog from developing. KPDX will likely be near the edge of the fog/low stratus deck, but suspect visibilities at KPDX will fall to 1 SM or lower by 09-10z Wednesday before fog scours out by 17-18z Wednesday as east winds reach the terminal. There is a 50-75% chance for dense fog reducing surface visibilities to 1/4 SM at KEUG, KSLE, and KUAO. Probabilities are lower at KHIO at 10%, but feel these probabilities are misleadingly low given the clear skies and calm winds in place this evening and with KHIO being a fog-prone TAF site. Also worth noting is temperatures will be right around 32 degrees at KEUG when fog develops, meaning freezing fog is possible. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR flight conditions will persist through approximately 09z Wednesday. Clearing skies after 00z Wednesday with calm winds will favor fog and low stratus development after 09z Wednesday, with surface visibilities likely falling to 1 SM or lower. There is a 30% chance visibilities will fall as low as 1/4 SM. Confidence is rather low regarding the exact time fog and low stratus will scour out at the KPDX terminal, as the terminal will be near the edge of the stratus/fog deck and the end time will depend on when easterly winds reach the KPDX terminal. Latest guidance suggests east winds will finally reach the KPDX terminal around 17-18z Wednesday, which is when fog and low clouds are expected to scour out. -23 && .MARINE...Buoy observations from Tuesday afternoon showed seas ranging between 6 to 8 ft at 11 to 12 seconds, with light north to northeast winds around 10 kt. Winds are still expected to become easterly for a brief period of time Wednesday morning as offshore flow develops. East winds should generally stay at or under 10 kt, but may be locally stronger downwind of coastal gaps. Winds veer to the south and increase Wednesday afternoon as another frontal system approaches the waters, with wind gusts peaking between 25 and 30 kt Wednesday evening through Wednesday night as the front moves through. Small Craft Advisories have been issued to cover this threat. Winds weaken significantly on Thursday behind the frontal passage, however a long period westerly swell will be rapidly increasing. Forecast seas have increased with today`s forecast update, and are now expected to peak between 17-19 ft Thursday afternoon and evening with a dominant wave period of 14-15 seconds. There is a 10% chance seas will peak at or slightly above 20 ft. Given increasing confidence for steep and hazardous seas on Thursday, a Hazardous Seas Watch has been issued for the inner and outer waters late Thursday morning through Thursday night. Seas are then expected to slowly subside to 10-13 ft Friday morning and afternoon, and then remain within that range through the upcoming weekend. Winds look to stay under 20 kt Friday through the weekend as well. -23 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Wednesday to 10 AM PST Thursday for PZZ251>253. Hazardous Seas Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for PZZ251>253-271>273. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Wednesday to 10 AM PST Thursday for PZZ271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

483 FXUS66 KMFR 182220 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 220 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 .DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows a lower cloud deck persisting in the Rogue, Illinois, Applegate, and Shasta Valleys and the clouds have been slow to erode over the past few hours. Meanwhile, lower clouds in some of the valleys east of the Cascades, in particular Lake County have also been slow to burn off. iIt`s possible these areas may not break out at all or at the very least late in the afternoon. Guidance tonight is in pretty good agreement for low clouds and patchy to areas of fog to form for the interior westside valleys again later tonight into Wednesday morning, and the valleys east of the Cascades. For the westside valleys, this should be enough to keep temperatures from dropping near or below freezing as the cloud layer and fog will slow down the amount of cooling tonight. The pattern overall will remain rather quiet for the rest of the week into next weekend. The exception will be Wednesday night into Thursday as an upper trough will move into the area bringing precipitation, but much like the last couple of times, the low will split from the main flow and push south into northern Cal. This will limit the amount of precipitation we get in our area. Snow is expected to be confined to the mountains. Even then 24 hour snowfall accumulation will be an inch or less along the Cascades and around Mount Ashland and the higher terrain east of the Cascades. Meanwhile snowfall amounts will be higher at Mount Shasta Ski area. As the upper low splits and weakens, precipitation during the day Thursday will diminish, but will tend to linger longer in Northern California. The upper low will move south into California Thursday night with dry weather likely. However, low level moisture from Wednesday night and Thursday morning precipitation will be high, thus setting the table for low clouds and fog again for the interior valleys. Friday through the weekend is likely to be dry as upper ridging nudges in from the west as the cutoff low moves towards southern California. The upper flow will likely remain westerly with the ridge remaining over the area Saturday through Sunday. This will likely keep the storm track farther north, this keeping our area dry. There`s good agreement among the operational models with the overall pattern this weekend. The operational models, the majority of the individual ECMWF (88 percent), and all of the GFS ensemble means show no precipitation in our area Sunday. Additionally, the clusters are also in good agreement into Sunday with upper ridging over our area and the storm track farther north. As is typical, the NBM solution for the weekend is too high, too far south, and inland, especially given the above mentioned. So while we have a slight chance to chance pops in the forecast for some locations Sunday, the reality is we`ll end up dry. Now it won`t be until late Sunday night into Monday where a weak upper trough will swing north of the area and this will send a weakening front into our area early Monday morning. The front will weaken as it moves through the area Monday, therefore it`s possible most of the precipitation (and it will be light) will be in the morning with most areas dry Monday afternoon. A cooler and drier airmass will follow Monday night into Tuesday which the operational models show, but this is not locked in stone with some the individual ensemble members hinting at more upper troughing which could bring cooler and possibly unsettled weather. -Petrucelli && .AVIATION...18/18Z TAFs...Ceilings look to be persistent in many west side valleys late this morning, including most areas south and east of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide, including Medford and Montague/Yreka. Ceilings are around 3000 feet (borderline MVFR) and could last through most of this afternoon. There is a chance ceilings lift or even scatter out for a time late this afternoon/evening. Similarly, fog/low clouds are bringing lower conditions to Klamath Falls, but with LIFR. These should tend to lift and break over the next few hours with satellite imagery showing some drying coming in from the north. Roseburg and North Bend have already cleared to VFR. With high pressure building in and plenty of low-level moisture, we expect areas of fog and low clouds to redevelop this evening and fill in again overnight into Wednesday morning. This will bring widespread valley IFR/LIFR and to most TAF sites. Offshore flow could prevent the fog/low clouds at North Bend, so a VFR forecast is indicated there through Wednesday morning. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM PST Tuesday, November 18, 2025...North winds and northwest swell will gradually subside tonight with conditions improving from north to south into Wednesday. Then, another frontal system is expected Wednesday afternoon and night with steep wind-driven seas. After the front passes and winds diminish, large longer period swell arrives Thursday into Friday. Guidance is showing the swell peaking in the 16-19 foot range at 15 seconds Thursday evening. A somewhat active pattern then continues through the weekend, with persistent elevated seas of slightly higher than 10 feet. -Spilde && .BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 200 PM PST Tuesday, November 18, 2025...Guidance is showing a long period swell arriving Thursday morning and persisting through Friday morning. With swells peaking in the 16-19 foot range (15 sec period) Thursday evening, this will result in 20-24 foot breaking waves in the surf zone. A high surf advisory has been issued. -Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for ORZ021-022. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 10 AM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

370 FXUS66 KEKA 182126 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 126 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Cooler and drier conditions expected through Wednesday. A quick moving system arrives Wednesday evening, bringing breezy south winds and rain across the area. Drier conditions expected by Thursday afternoon through at least Sunday. Frost possible Friday night into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...A brief period of dry weather is forecast through most of Wednesday as a much drier airmass fills in behind this system tonight, bringing chillier temperatures to the interior areas. Lingering cloud cover is likely to keep high temperatures this afternoon moderated, with even the warmest valleys struggling to reach 60. Ample moisture from recent rains are likely to promote cloud cover and patchy valley fog again tonight. Temperatures could still drop into the mid to high 30s for the coldest valleys of Trinity and northern Mendocino counties. These overnight temperatures will likely be high enough to prevent widespread frost. Another system is likely to arrive by late Wednesday evening, returning gusty south winds and rain to the area. Most models show this as a quick moving system bringing light to locally moderate rain and breezy south winds. NBM is showing over 50% chances for over 0.5" of rain north of Cape Mendocino. There is around a 40% chances or higher for over 1" in Del Norte the King Range. Generally, forecast amounts range from 0.25-0.5" across the area, with localized areas over 1". South winds are not currently forecast to be strong, though gusts of 25-35 mph are possible especially along the coastal areas and in channeled terrain. Snow levels will drop Wednesday night to 5000-5500 ft, but lower precipitation potential in Trinity County will only support a dusting at Highway 3 around Scott Mountain Pass. Conditions quickly improve by Thursday morning with only some lingering showers continuing by Thursday afternoon. Another break in the wet weather returns Friday and into the weekend. Chilly overnight temperatures are likely, which could lead to widespread frost as early as Friday morning if cloud cover clears out. An additional system is possible early next week, but ensembles are starting to trend this system northward. NBM is only showing a 50% chance for 0.1" in Del Norte Monday, with much lower probabilities to the south. Even high-end precipitation amounts (75th percentile) are only showing 0.25-0.50". JB && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)...VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at coastal aerodromes (KCEC and KACV) through the period. Shallow moist air may result in brief MVFR vsbys this evening once mixing and solar insolation ceases. IFR conditions are expected to redevelop in the interior valleys overnight. Skies have been slow to clear out in Trinity and portions of interior Humboldt this afternoon and may not clear out at all. KUKI has cleared out, but IFR conditions will likely (60% chance) redevelop aft 08Z. Toward the end of the forecast period, MVFR cigs may (50% chance) spread back out over the coastal plain around Humboldt Bay and over KACV after 14-16Z Wed as winds turn south-southeasterly in advance of a front. Low level wind shear and shallow severe turbulence will be possible (20% chance) for over the coastal mountains and coastal airfields after 00z Thu as a 35kt+ low level barrier jet develops. && .MARINE...A frontal boundary will rapidly progress across the waters Thu afternoon and evening bringing a brief period of gale force winds by mid to late evening. High resolution 10 member ensemble indicates 60-80% chance for gust > 34 kt, primarily in the outer waters, and nearshore waters north of Trinidad head, around Pt St George and north of Shelter Cove around Cape Mendo. There is a great deal of small scale variability, timing and spatial differences between all the HREF members. Thus a gale watch for gusts > 34 kt has been hoisted after 4-7 PM Wed for the outer waters. Gusts > 34 kt are certainly expected inside 10NM, especially around headlands. Large W-NW swell will begin to build Wed night and reach 15-17 feet at 13-15 seconds by Thu morning. This swell will combine with short period wind waves and seas will once again become quite hazardous. A warning for seas may be necessary. Otherwise, northerly winds and steep wind waves are generally forecast to prevail through the remainder of the week. A series of large W-NW swell groups will also propagate into the waters Thu through Sun. && .BEACH HAZARDS...Long period W-NW swell from 8-12 ft with dominant periods near 16 seconds is forecast to build over the weekend. This swell may pose a moderate risk for sneaker waves as well as continued erosion of beach profiles. Stay tuned. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for PZZ450- 455. Gale Warning until 11 PM PST this evening for PZZ470. Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for PZZ470. Gale Warning until 9 PM PST this evening for PZZ475. Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through late Wednesday night for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

854 FXUS66 KMTR 190433 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 833 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 118 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 - Mainly dry weather through Wednesday, with a few isolated showers being possible. - More beneficial type rain late Wednesday through Thursday. - Dry weather returns Friday and continues through the weekend. && .UPDATE... Issued at 833 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 An upper level low will remain located over southern California tonight into Wednesday while high pressure moves in across our forecast area from the northwest. High pressure will bring dry weather along with night-time radiative cooling resulting in patchy fog during the overnight and Wednesday morning. Newly arriving 00z forecast guidance agrees with previous guidance that the dry weather break will be temporary. Another low pressure system is forecast to arrive from the northwest later Wednesday, Wednesday night and Thursday bringing more wet weather to our forecast area. For additional info on the forecast please see the previous discussions. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 118 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 (This evening through Wednesday) Upper level troughing will slowly swing through southern CA today and tomorrow, while weak upper level ridging quickly builds and then flattens. Radar thus far has shown a few showers develop over southern Monterey and San Benito counties, while elsewhere we have a mix of sunny skies and fair weather cumulus. Tonight, skies should clear and given the moisture we may see some valley fog. Tomorrow, deterministic models suggest a weak disturbance passing over head, which may bring some high clouds and perhaps a few isolated showers to the region. Otherwise quiet weather prevails until the next system approaches the PacNW. Rain chances begin to increase for the North Bay during the evening hours. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 118 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 (Wednesday night through next Monday) The aforementioned upper level low will bring a round of beneficial rain late Wednesday into Thursday. Rainfall amounts continue to be around 0.25" for the North Bay counties, with perhaps slightly higher amounts in elevated terrain. Elsewhere, amounts look to anywhere from 0.1- 0.25", with lower amounts expected for interior locations. The Santa Cruz and Santa Lucia mountains may see slightly higher amounts. Once this system exits the region, ensemble and deterministic models show upper level ridging building in for the weekend. Given additional moisture from the rain, we should see some night and morning fog. The ridge will also bring temperatures up a few degrees putting most areas near or above normal. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 349 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 VFR conditions with moderate diurnally driven wind dominate this afternoon. Some low VFR cumulus clouds are gradually evaporating across the East and South Bay. Overnight a deep but weak marine layer will try to form, which could bring some MVFR or low VFR clouds to the terminals by Wednesday morning. Beyond the TAF period southerly winds will begin to increase as a cold front approaches from the NW Wednesday night. Vicinity of SFO...Standard afternoon moderate onshore wind will gradually decrease through the evening. The ceiling forecast is tricky for Wednesday. There is a good chance for a weak marine layer to roll in early Wednesday morning, but there still a lot of uncertainty whether it will carry clouds or if the bases will be above or below 3,000 feet. As the day goes on cloud cover should increase, but the ceilings will also lift. High clouds and southerly winds will increase late in the TAF period as a cold front approaches. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Mostly clear skies will continue through the evening. We have another tricky forecast for Wednesday as there is a roughly even chance for MVFR ceilings or VFR skies. SNS has a better chance of higher ceilings and less cloud coverage than MRY. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 349 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 Buoys are reporting a fresh NW breeze and rough seas. The winds will decrease and shift to a gentle southerly breeze Wednesday, allowing rough seas to subside and allowing for a brief favorable weather window across the coastal waters. Late Wednesday an approaching cold front will cause the southerly breeze to increase to moderate before increasing and flipping back to a fresh to strong NW breeze as the front passes early Thursday morning. The winds will gradually diminish through the day Thursday as a very high NW swell up to 15 feet arrives. This swell will stick around for a while, very gradually subsiding through the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ UPDATE...Canepa SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

411 FXUS66 KOTX 190002 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 402 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier overall this week with slightly above normal temperatures. - Active weather returns by the end of the weekend. && .SYNOPSIS... A quieter weather pattern is forecast for the upcoming week. Temperatures will be cooler, but still be above normal through the week. A more active pattern is expected to develop by the end of the weekend into early next week with valley rain, mountain snow and breezy winds. && .DISCUSSION... Tuesday night through Wednesday: The Inland Northwest is under the influence of a weak upper-level trough this afternoon. This has primarily resulted in an increase in extensive clouds, but as the cold pool associated with the upper-level trough moves east of the Cascades, there is a 10-15% chance for light rain across the lowlands and a 20-30% chance for light snow in the mountains. Limited moisture and dynamics will keep totals generally less than a couple hundredths. On Wednesday, models are in good agreement for a transient upper- level ridge to move into the Inland Northwest as upper- level trough associated with a low in the Gulf of Alaska approaches the western US. Mid level drying and subsidence associated with the ridge will decrease cloud cover Wednesday morning. The timing of the drier air and clearing of mid and high level clouds should be late enough in the morning to inhibit fog development. Wednesday afternoon will feature seasonable temperatures in the 40s. Despite the ridging, mixing will be limited, keeping winds light and preventing significant warming. Thursday through Saturday: Models are in general agreement on the trough to split as it digs offshore, becoming a closed low as it moves into northern California on Thursday. This leaves the Inland Northwest under zonal flow aloft and subtle ridging. Thursday looks largely dry, though depending on the track of the low, southeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle have a 15% chance of light rain. By Friday, a zonal jet will direct a plume of moisture into the Pacific Northwest. However, forecast confidence regarding the precise orientation of the moisture axis and strongest winds aloft remains tied to the evolution of the California low. Without a defined system over the Inland Northwest, precipitation will be driven almost exclusively by orographic ascent with precipitation chances confined to the mountains. Saturday Night through Monday: Global ensembles highlight a pattern shift late weekend as an upper-level trough and associated surface cold front approach the Pacific Northwest. This system presents the highest impact potential of the forecast period. Anticipate a period of lowland precipitation, moderate to heavy mountain snow, and gusty winds. While there is high confidence in a pattern change, uncertainty exists regarding the timing of the frontal passage and the depth of the colder air mass. We will continue to monitor this as the forecast evolves. && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: A weak mid level trough moving through the northwest continues to bring cloud cover of varying levels, though primarily VFR conditions are being observed. The cloud cover should help limit reductions overnight and in the early morning due to fog, but the HREF is showing a 10-15% chance for fog development by early Wednesday morning from the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene down to KPUW and in some of the sheltered northeastern valleys. .FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence for reduced visibility due to fog development for KGEG, KSFF, KCOE and KPUW. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 31 45 31 45 30 45 / 10 0 0 10 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 33 46 32 45 33 44 / 10 0 0 10 10 10 Pullman 29 46 33 45 30 46 / 10 0 0 20 10 0 Lewiston 35 49 36 50 35 50 / 10 0 0 10 0 0 Colville 29 46 27 47 28 42 / 20 0 0 10 10 10 Sandpoint 33 45 31 45 33 42 / 40 10 0 20 30 30 Kellogg 33 47 35 48 36 44 / 20 10 0 20 30 30 Moses Lake 28 48 31 47 28 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 33 47 35 49 34 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Omak 32 46 33 47 33 44 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

936 FXUS66 KPDT 182259 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 259 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 .UPDATED AVIATION...00Z TAFs...Low CIGs have cleared out of KRDM/KBDN from this late morning, leaving all sites at VFR with light winds. Otherwise, mid to high clouds will prevail throughout the TAF period. Feaster/97 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 209 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025/ KEY POINTS... 1. High mountain precipitation, low elevation dry 2. Cold overnight temperatures with patchy fog/freezing fog 3. Active weather will return late in the week .DISCUSSION...Current satellite shows a layer of mid level clouds hovering over the easter portion of the CWA keeping the Ochoco- John Day Highlands eastwards overcast. A layer of high level clouds have moved over the vast majority of the CWA this afternoon as well. Models are showing a dry air slot will push in behind these clouds bringing dry and cold conditions to the majority of the region with some high mountain rain. Today through Thursday afternoon...The remainder of the day will continue to be dry with only the high elevations of the Cascades seeing any form of precipitation as the trough continues to meander over the region. With the dry cold air filtering into the region from the NW, overnight temperatures will dip into at or below freezing range with 60-80% of the raw ensembles showing much of central/north central OR, Ochoco-John Day Highlands, the Gorge, foothills of the Blues, Simcoe Highlands and portions of the eastern slopes of the Cascades seeing temperatures below freezing. With that said, a FREEZE WARNING has been issued for the OR and WA portions of the Gorge for freezing temperatures starting tonight at 11 PM and continuing through Wednesday morning at 10 AM. Along with the cold temperatures, there is roughly 30% probabilities that there will be patchy fog across portions of the region that remain above freezing and freezing fog in areas that drop below. A brief trough Wednesday afternoon will continue to keep the lower elevations dry with continued light high mountain precipitation ahead of the next incoming system. Wednesday night models show the leading edge of the next trough beginning to push its way onshore. By Wednesday afternoon, mountain showers will begin and with the cooler air from today ahead of this next system, models show snow levels will drop to below 3500 feet in the far northern WA Cascades and 4500 feet across the remaining Cascades through tonight and continue through tomorrow. This next system will bring in some moisture allowing some light precipitation to fall along the Cascades before spreading across central OR and the eastern mountains. However, models do show this system to be relatively dry with only 0.01(over the eastern mountains) up to 0.05 inches (over the WA Cascades) of QPF available and only 60% probabilities of 0.10 inches of snow falling along the Snoqualmie corridor through Thursday morning and very light snow over the eastern mountains as another brief ridge drys the area out ahead of the next incoming trough. Thursday night onwards...Models show an upper level elongated low off the coast of Canada slithering its way southward bringing with it SW flow aloft and a weak AR. However, clusters are showing there to be some difference with the timing of the separating low and trough. Thursday eyeing, a few models (GFS/Can) show the low to serrate from the trough ans swing south towards California and an elongated trough moves over the Cascades while the remaining models have the system still as one (ECMWF/NAM). Regardless, ensembles and models alike show this will bring back increased probabilities of precipitation across the WA Cascades, Blues and the Wallowas. CB/90 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 31 48 31 47 / 10 0 10 10 ALW 34 48 35 47 / 10 0 10 20 PSC 30 48 32 50 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 29 50 32 51 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 31 48 33 49 / 0 0 0 10 ELN 27 46 30 47 / 0 0 10 0 RDM 22 51 27 49 / 0 0 20 10 LGD 29 51 34 51 / 10 0 10 20 GCD 31 55 34 51 / 10 0 10 20 DLS 34 50 39 52 / 0 0 30 20 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Wednesday for ORZ041. WA...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Wednesday for WAZ024. && $$ SHORT TERM...90 LONG TERM....90 AVIATION...97

991 FXUS65 KREV 182127 CCA AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 125 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Snow showers to linger in Southern Mono Co and the White Mountains through this evening, with dry and cold conditions Wednesday. Fog and freezing fog may form overnight in valley locations. * Another storm will bring rain and snow to the Sierra and western Nevada Thursday, but this is not nearly as wet as the multi- day storm we just had. * Looking ahead to the week of Thanksgiving, the weather for traveling looks good the early part of the week. Simulations are pointing toward a colder storm the weekend following the holiday, details TBD. && .DISCUSSION... * After a multi-day period of wetting rains, and liquid totals that have pushed KRNO to the 11th wettest start of the water year (10/1/25-11/17/25), we`re going to start to dry out, but this will be a short-lived reprieve. Plentiful low-level moisture and partially clearing skies, along with cold overnight lows, will help fog and freezing fog to develop in valleys across the Sierra and Western Nevada. Places like the Martis Valley and Carson Valley have a solid 90% chance, while other valley locations have a 60% chance overnight from approximately 10 pm through 8 am. We have already solidified the latest "first freeze", aka 32 degrees or colder for KRNO, with the previous record 11/16/16. Tonight, we may finally reach that mark with a forecast low of 31, but if we have enough fog/low stratus develop, it could keep things a few degrees warmer. * The next winter system arrives Thursday, with snow levels hovering in the 5.5-6.5kft range. This means that the weather type will be snow for all Sierra passes, but totals do not look overly problematic. The mid-range snow totals in the Sierra are 2-5 inches, with the high-end (1 in 10 chance) scenario reaching 8-12" of snow along the crest. Be prepared for chain controls and travel delays if you are traversing the Sierra on Thursday. Liquid totals are not nearly as impressive with this storm as the couple we just had, with 0.3-0.8" for the Sierra, and lesser amounts of a few hundredths up to a couple tenths of an inch into northeast CA and western NV. * NE-E winds will develop on the back side of this system Friday, with gusty conditions along the Sierra crest into Saturday morning. The weekend is generally quiet with near to below normal temperatures that will gradually warm into Monday. There`s a 10% chance for a weak system to brush north of the region the early part of next week, which would produce light showers closer to the Oregon border and bring cooling into Tuesday. * Looking ahead to one of the busiest travel period of the year -- the weather for Thanksgiving is looking quiet, but we are seeing a large number of ensembles (80+%) indicating a colder trough for the weekend following the holiday, with rain and snow chances. With this storm being 10-12 days out, it`s still TBD on many details, but just something to be aware of if you do have travel plans. -Dawn && .AVIATION... * While lower clouds are slowly eroding on satellite, observations around the region are still showing plentiful clouds obscuring terrain. Additional fog and/or low stratus has a moderate-high chance of forming overnight. Terminals most likely to be affected include KTRK and KMEV (90% chance), but patchy fog/freezing fog has a 60% chance of forming at any other valley terminal. Time frame to watch out for fog development will be approximately 03z- 15z. * Otherwise, improved flying conditions into Wednesday, before our next storm brings an uptick in SW winds (~25-40 kts at FL100) and chances for rain and snow Thursday. NE-E winds will develop on the back side of this system Friday into Saturday morning, with mountain wave turbulence possible west of the Sierra crest. -Dawn && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon CAZ073. && $$

789 FXUS66 KSTO 182011 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1211 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Drier conditions return today into Wednesday morning. - Our next system [Wednesday PM - Friday AM] will bring mountain snow and light to moderate rain showers creating minor travel impacts - Dry weather returns Friday late morning through the weekend. .DISCUSSION... ...Today - Wednesday AM... Dry and mild conditions today with scattered clouds over the mountains and portions of the northern San Joaquin areas. 15-30 percent chance of lowered visibilities in the morning, mainly over the northern San Joaquin areas and Valley foothills. Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s today and Wednesday. ...Wednesday Evening - Friday... The trough is currently forecast to bring renewed rain and mountain snow chances late Wednesday through Friday afternoon. Latest NBM runs have decreased total rain and snow for our region slightly, but still within the same impact range as yesterday`s package. NBM probabilities show a 30-50% chance of 3 inches of snow or more over the Sierra above 6000 feet and 40-70% chance of 0.25" of rain of more for the Valley north of I-80 so even amidst the uncertainty the system looks to be on the lower range of impacts. Forecasted Rain amounts are 0.10-0.50", up to an inch over the mountains with the wettest period Wednesday night to Thursday morning. 2-5" of snow expected with highest amounts south of Hwy. 50. Rain and snow should taper off Thursday evening into Friday morning as dry weather returns. You can always find the latest road conditions at quickmap.dot.ca.gov ...Next Weekend - Early Next Week... Drier weather overtakes the area by Friday midday, as upper level ridging is progged to develop and somewhat strengthen in the eastern Pacific. Weak troughing to the north in/near the Gulf of Alaska may help keep our heights flat, with seasonable high temperatures and mainly dry weather in the forecast through the weekend. Monday brings an outside chance of weak showers over the Sierra and N. Sac Valley but chances remain low and impacts look minimal. .AVIATION... General VFR conditions outside of localized MVFR conditions over the northern San Joaquin Valley from mist and cloud cover around 2000-5000 feet until 06z Wed. Then 15-30% chance for MVFR to IFR conditions from mist and low stratus across the foothills, southern Sac. Valley, and northern San Joaquin from 12z Wed into 18z Wed and as low as LIFR conditions at KMOD from fog and mist from 10z to 15z Wed. Lastly, broken to overcast skies expected at KRDD and KRBL around 1500 to 3000 feet from 07z Wed into 18z Wed. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

595 FXUS65 KMSO 182024 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 124 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Foggy Mornings: Areas of valley fog are likely each morning through Friday. - Weekend Moisture: A minor Atmospheric River will bring widespread precipitation this weekend. Snow levels will remain relatively high above 5000 ft. - Thanksgiving Week: A sharp cold front could bring some low- elevation snow but still a lot of uncertainty on the details. A weak weather system may brush the region on Wednesday, bringing increased cloud cover and a chance of light valley rain/snow and high-elevation snow showers to northwest Montana and the Glacier Park region. However, moisture is limited, and this system will bring mainly light accumulations above around 3,500 feet. Temperatures will remain mild, with valley highs generally in the 40s. However, areas with persistent fog may struggle to get out of the 30s. A mild weather pattern will dominate the Northern Rockies through the end of the week. High pressure is generally overhead, trapping air in the valleys. The primary near-term forecast challenge will be the daily cycle of valley fog and low clouds. The weather pattern begins to shift on Friday as the high- pressure area weakens, allowing Pacific moisture to stream into the region. The weekend Atmospheric River (a long plume of moisture directed at the Pacific Northwest) will bring rain and snow into western Montana and north-central Idaho starting Saturday. This system is warmer, with snow levels rising to between 4,500 and 5,500 feet. Valley locations can expect periods of rain, while mountain passes (Lookout, Lolo, Marias) will likely see accumulating snowfall and slushy road conditions. Attention turns to a cold low-pressure system moving south from the Gulf of Alaska early next week. There is strong model agreement for a sharp cold front to pass through the region sometime Monday or early Tuesday. This setup favors a transition from rain to snow on valley floors, followed by temperatures dropping closer to normal. Precipitation amounts vary greatly: anywhere from only a dusting on mountain passes to 4 to 6 inches of snow in the mountains through Tuesday morning. By Wednesday, there is still a 60 to 80 percent chance that highs could be at or below freezing across western Montana, but milder in the lower elevations of Idaho (30s to low 40s). These chances decrease by Thanksgiving into Friday, which suggests milder conditions. Snow showers could persist in the mountains Tuesday into Wednesday. This common pattern of colder air moving in after the front could also bring periodic snow showers down to some valley floors. Forecast models are increasingly agreeing on a push of Pacific moisture by the day after Thanksgiving (Friday) and/or into Saturday. This could bring a chance for snow to the region, though snow levels are still uncertain (ranging from 1,000 to 2,500 feet on Friday). && .AVIATION...Shower activity is widely scattered across western Montana and north central Idaho. Localized obscurations of the terrain and lowered visibility can be expected with showers. This activity will generally shift focus into north-central Idaho and southwest Montana after 19/0000z this evening. A period of lowered visibility and ceiling may occur through roughly 19/0600z for airfields KHRF and KBTM. The upper level trough will pass through northwest Montana between 19/0900z and 19/1500z, bringing another round of widespread shower activity, mainly along and north of Highway 2. A mix of rain and snow down to roughly 3500 feet will cause widespread obstruction of the terrain and lowered visibility, including at KGPI. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

499 FXUS65 KBOI 190348 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 848 PM MST Tue Nov 18 2025 .DISCUSSION...A slow-moving trough is steering a band of mid- to-high clouds over E-Central OR and into the area, with patchy fog and areas of stratus ahead of it, and expected to continue over SW ID and SE OR through Wednesday morning and early afternoon. Winds will remain on the variable and calmer side tonight, becoming more E-SE Wednesday afternoon and dissipating much of the fog. Patchy valley fog and areas of stratus are expected to return Wednesday night through Thursday morning, as a secondary trough off the Pacific NW coast digs across the area. A 20-40% chance of precipitation is still expected mainly for the W-Central ID mountains Wednesday. Thursday will see a 20-30% chance of precipitation mainly across higher elevations. Peak daytime valley temperatures are expected to remain in the lower 50s Wednesday through Friday, with nighttime temperatures slowly dropping into the mid/lower 30s. Higher elevations will generally see daytime temperatures in the upper 40s and nighttime temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION...MVFR-LIFR in areas of fog/low stratus, especially in E Oregon and Wrn Snake Plain. Light precip for NE Oregon and W-central Idaho Wed morning, with 6.5k-7.5k feet MSL snow levels. Some Flight Cat improvement expected by mid-day Wed, except lingering low ceilings over SW Idaho mountains and E Oregon. Surface winds: variable less than 8kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S to SW 5-15 kt. KBOI...Periods of MVFR/IFR from low stratus expanding tonight in the Treasure Valley. A 70% chance of LIFR ceilings/vis occurring between 19/06z-15z. Uncertainty of LIFR is due to passing upper low and presence of mid clouds. Surface winds: light and variable. && .AIR STAGNATION...Forecasts keep conditions borderline in regards to a prolonged stagnant air mass setting up. Mixing heights of 1800-2500 feet AGL and light winds are expected through Friday. The weekend will see a low-amplitude ridge which will keep dry and stable conditions in place. Expect fog and stratus to be in play through at least Wednesday with a system on Thursday possibly breaking it up, especially in the Snake Plain which gets into easterly winds. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...We remain under an area of weak flow aloft sandwiched between a low over southern CA and another along the US/Canada border. This northern system will hold the most potential impact for our weather over the next 24hr as it drags a weak front across the area. The front will bring a 20-40% chance of showers to the e-central Oregon and w-central Idaho mtns on Wednesday and enough wind to portions of SE Oregon to combat the development of fog/stratus. Further east and south, the front is expected to have little impact near the surface which will favor redevelopment of fog and stratus tonight into Wednesday. Given the stubbornness the fog/stratus has shown today, have leaned into the HRRR and NAMnest solutions for tonight into Wednesday regarding timing and coverage of low cloud cover. Expect to see a mix of fog/stratus from Harney/Malheur counties through the Snake Plain to Twin/Jerome. Not confident enough on the form and coverage to issue any highlights for dense fog, but wouldn`t be surprised if one is needed for Wednesday morning. Above the valleys mid-high clouds will accompany the weak front and mtn showers. Another wave will push onto the coast late Wednesday, extending into our region on Thursday. Not confident on what fog/stratus will do Wednesday night but the lowest elevations stand the best chance at seeing it return (if it does in fact erode on Wednesday). This next system will bring a more widespread 20-30% chance of precipitation to SE Oregon and the SW Idaho Thursday, though any amounts will be light (most locations <0.10"). Snow levels through the period will remain between 6-8kft so what little does fall will be limited to the higher peaks. LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...A ridge builds in from the west as a closed low moves over southern California, this will allow for a mostly zonal flow to keep temps moderated through Monday at about 5-10 degrees above normal. During this period, mixing heights have a daily maximum of around 2-3 kft MSL, lowest on Friday and Saturday. This could allow a weak inversion to develop, while supporting morning fog. A broad trough moves in from Alaska Monday evening, bringing a 20-40% chance of precipitation to the north and cooling temperatures down to normal on Tuesday. Models seem less confident in the precipitation than previous runs, but the trough is consistent so a cooldown is likely. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...JY AVIATION.....SH AIR STAGNATION...DG SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....JM

176 FXUS65 KLKN 182001 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1201 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 PM PST Tue Nov 18 2025 * Periods of precipitation south of Highway 50 this afternoon and tonight * Periods of precipitation south of Highway 50 Thursday night * Warming trend Friday through Monday && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper-level area of low pressure will move southward just off the coast of California this afternoon. This cyclone aloft will turn eastward and make landfall over Southern California tonight, before entering the Desert Southwest Wednesday. Precipitation associated with this atmospheric disturbance should remain south of the Highway 50 corridor this afternoon and tonight. Another upper-level area of low pressure will approach the coast of the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night. This cyclone aloft will turn southward and progress in that direction just off the coast of California Thursday. This atmospheric disturbance will be at its closest location to the Silver State Thursday night. Once again, precipitation associated with this upper-level area of low pressure should remain south of the Highway 50 corridor Thursday night. An Eastern Pacific ridge of high pressure will build eastward across Northern Nevada Friday through Monday. This ridge of high pressure will keep the storm track north of the Silver State Friday through Monday. A warming trend is expected Friday through Monday. By Monday afternoon, high temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada will be seven to nine degrees above normal for this time of year. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding periods of precipitation south of Highway 50 this afternoon and tonight. Moderate forecast confidence in periods of precipitation south of Highway 50 Thursday night. Low forecast confidence regarding a warming trend Friday through Monday. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours. Showers are expected in the vicinity of KTPH this afternoon into Wednesday morning. Showers are anticipated in the vicinity of KELY this afternoon and tonight. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 87