288 FXUS66 KSEW 121757 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 1057 AM PDT Tue May 12 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A lingering ridge of high pressure will bring one more day of warm temperatures to western Washington today. A transition to onshore flow and cooler conditions will take place on Wednesday along with a chance of some precipitation. Cooler and unsettled conditions will continue into the weekend as a trough of low pressure over the Northeast Pacific sends a series of weak frontal systems across the area. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Generally clear skies over W WA this early morning although seeing some high clouds starting to move in from the far SW corner of the CWA. Some low-level clouds are possible inland from the coastline, although their eastward extent is pretty limited. One last day under the ridge will see daytime highs a few degrees warmer than yesterday with widespread upper 70s to lower 80 expected throughout the interior lowlands. Locations along the coast and in the islands will benefit from their proximity to water with highs in these spots much milder in the upper 60s to around 70. The ridge pushes eastward late this afternoon/early this evening allowing for an onshore push. While the most obvious change will be the cooling of temperatures, the incoming upper level trough tonight and associated moisture could give rise to evening and overnight showers. Best chances of this seem to be near the Cascades and associated foothills where orographics will give a boost to the incoming instability, but the lower end PoPs for these showers extends to the eastern half of the Olympic Peninsula. A slight chance for thunderstorms is present over the far southern portion of the Cascades, which lines up with latest SPC thoughts of general thunder...although this is more of a concern for down in PQRs CWA. Wednesday sees the upper low traverse the area, keeping showers in the forecast and significantly cooler temperatures...mainly in the lower 60s. Best chance for rain is largely confined to east of the Sound, however PoPs are present area-wide for much of the day. Thursday sees a shortwave ridge quickly enter and exit the area. While this will limit PoPs over the area, it does not completely eliminate the chance for showers in some locations...again with a preference over the northern two-thirds of the Cascades. Temps warm slightly...mainly a couple of degrees at best...as lowland highs remain in the lower 60s...although some spots may nudge into the mid 60s. 18 && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... An alternating series of troughs and shortwave ridges for the remainder of this week will keep temperatures cool...upper 50s to lower 60s for daytime highs...and the chances for rain elevated. A broad trough begins to impact the area starting Friday and at the time of this writing models seem to be favoring some level of instablilty over W WA...resulting in a widespread slight chance for thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening hours. While this trough ejects Saturday morning, embedded shortwaves in the upper flow will keep showers in place for much of the remainder of the day. How quickly this moisture is pushed out of the area appears to be a point of contention in the long range model data. While there is consensus on an upper level ridge setting up for the remainder of the forecast period, the amplitude of said ridge will play a role in how quickly dry conditions return, thus introducing some uncertainty. Latest NBM output suggests moisture...and thus showers...lingering Sunday before tapering off on Monday. This transition will also help temperatures find their footing as daytime highs Monday get into the mid to upper 60s. 18 && .AVIATION... High pressure across the region today with VFR conditions area- wide. Increasing southwest flow aloft later today. Winds become southerly this afternoon and increase a bit, with some gusts to 15-20 kt possible late this afternoon. There is a 60-80% chance of showers passing through the terminals east of Puget Sound/Cascades late this evening/Wednesday morning, with another line of showers along the coast later Wednesday morning. There is also a 20% chance of thunder in the Cascades, generally from Mt. Rainier southward. Expect mostly MVFR ceilings overnight. Winds to remain out of the southwest Wednesday, with a couple spots becoming breezy later in the day. KSEA...VFR during the day, with light northwest winds this morning becoming southerly this afternoon. Speeds increase to 8-12 kt later afternoon with gusts to 20 kt through evening. Showers likely arrive after 06z Wednesday through the terminal area, decreasing through the day Wednesday. && .MARINE... A ridge will transit east over the waters today over a thermal trough at the surface. Winds will return to onshore later this afternoon as a trough/front passes over the waters this evening into Wednesday. The interior waters have the highest chance of seeing showers Wednesday morning. Pushes through the Strait of Juan de Fuca will resume with this system passing through this evening, with the strongest one expected Wednesday evening with a marginal chance of wind gusts approaching gale force in the central/east sections. The southern portion of the Puget Sound waters and the north interior waters have a medium chance of seeing gusts over 20 kts for rougher small craft conditions. Seas will hold around 4-6 ft through the week, with a brief bump to 6-8 ft with the midweek system. HPR && .HYDROLOGY... The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as needed. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$

193 FXUS66 KPQR 121834 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1134 AM PDT Tue May 12 2026 Updated aviation discussion. .SYNOPSIS...A warming trend persists into Tuesday as high pressure re-builds overhead, albeit temporarily. Precipitation chances then return this evening as a trough approaches the West Coast. Can`t rule out a period of high-based thunderstorms this evening into Wednesday morning (15-25% chance) as well. After lingering showers decrease Thursday, another low from the Gulf of Alaska maintains precipitation chances along with temperatures trending slightly cooler for the latter part of the week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Monday...Mostly sunny/clear conditions today as an upper level ridge of high pressure remains over the region. For most locations daytime, high temperatures today will likely be the warmest of the upcoming week, reaching into the low to upper 60s along the coast, low 70s to low 80s the Cascades, and upper 70s to mid 80s for the inland valleys/lower Cascade valleys. The past few model runs continue to relatively cool the area off today. Thus decreasing the moderate Heat Risk threat across the Portland/Metro and I-5 corridor. The latest NBM has lowered the probabilities for temperatures to exceed 90 degrees, giving the Portland metro only a 5-10% change to do so while the rest of the inland valleys are less than 5%. So, at least heat related impacts should remain a bit more muted than previously anticipated as a result. As the evening approaches, a shortwave trough will take aim at the Pac NW coast line. This approaching trough will result in an increase in overall instability through late tonight/early Wednesday morning. The pattern as a whole is resulting in a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms of the nocturnal variety, which does result in a challenging forecast. To add more of a challenge, any thunderstorms that do develop, will likely not be surface based. The primary question for today is going to be where are the thunderstorms likely to start? CAMs (Convective Allowing Models) do show a favorable pool of CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) along the Central and Southern Oregon Cascades as well as the Southern Washington Cascades, with values around 300-1800 J/kg. Now, it should be noted that this spread does include the NAM Nest, which is known to run rather "Hot" here in the Pac NW. The more conservative CAMs are showing CAPE values in the 300-500 J/kg range, with most CAMs also showing around 20-75 J/kg of CIN (Convective Inhibition). Overall, conditions are favorable for thunderstorm development starting late this afternoon through late tonight/early Wednesday morning, with a likely starting location along the Cascades, with a general storm motion of south to north. Wednesday morning/early afternoon, the shortwave trough will be east of the area which will usher in a period of more stratiform rainfall. The added cloud cover and cooler airmass on Wednesday afternoon pushes temperatures into upper 50s to mid 60s for much of the area. Looking towards the latter part of the week, a more zonal flow pattern looks to emerge, with perturbations within the upper level flow. This looks to maintain a cooling trend for the region through at least Friday. However, looking towards the weekend and into the start of next week, most ensemble members continue to show another trough dipping down from the Gulf of Alaska by the end of the week around Friday/Saturday. This will maintain chances for precipitation across the area and bring lower 500 mb heights, resulting in temperatures cooling down to or even below seasonal normals. /42-99 && .AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions Tuesday across NW OR and SW WA except for along the coast south of KAST. MVFR marine stratus continues along the coast under southwesterly surface flow and is not expected to improve to VFR. Across inland areas, light southerly flow shifts westerly and increases to around 8-10 kts after 21z Tue, then eases and becomes more south to southwesterly after 06z Wed. An upper level low pressure system approaches the region Tuesday night with a surface front pushing ahead. The front will move through the region between 06-15z Wed. Ahead of the front, there is a slight chance (15-25%) of scattered showers and thunderstorms 03- 09Z Wed for all inland TAF locations. The chance for these showers or thunderstorms aren`t high enough at any one location to add them to the TAFs at this time, but any strong shower or thunderstorm could produce heavy rain, small hail, lightning, and gusty and erratic winds. A more stratiform band of showers then pushes inland along and behind the front, beginning along the coast around 06-09z Wed then moving east and reaching inland terminals by 09-12z Wed. This band will be mainly east of the Cascades by 18z Wed with scattered showers continuing through the afternoon. There`s a 60-80% chance of MVFR ceilings south of KSLE and a 30-60% chance at KSLE and north between 09-14z Wed. Winds increase along and behind the front around 09-12z along the coast and 12-15z inland. Expect winds around 8-12 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts at times. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with high clouds into Tuesday night. There is a slight chance (15-25%) of scattered showers and thunderstorms from 03Z-09Z Wed. Then a more stratiform band of rain will impact the terminal beginning around 10-14z Wed with a 30-45% chance of MVFR ceilings. Scattered showers continue behind this with occasional chances of MVFR conditions in showers. Winds become west to southwest up to 8-10 kt by 21z Tue, becoming lighter and more variable after 02z Wed. Winds become southwest again and increase to 8-12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts after 11-14z Wed. -03 && .MARINE...Relatively benign conditions expected through the week with predominately westerly winds, mainly under 10 kts. An upper level trough and associated front moves through the waters on Wednesday, which bring a 40-55% chance of occasional small craft gusts up to 25 kt across all waters. Will continue to monitor the situation as there remains a fair amount of uncertainty. Winds remain westerly but decrease once again Wednesday night. Seas generally below 8 ft around 10-12 seconds through the majority of week, but could see seas close to 10 ft by Friday/Saturday. /42 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

156 FXUS66 KMFR 121805 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1105 AM PDT Tue May 12 2026 .Updated AVIATION and MARINE Discussions... && .AVIATION...12/18Z TAFs...VFR prevails across the region with some high clouds streaming through. IFR continues along the coast and over the coastal waters, but is gradually breaking up for the more inland locations. Since the flow will be more onshore today, there could be some more persistent cloudy areas along the immediate coast. Expect gusty south to southwest breezes today, especially in NorCal and east of the Cascades, but there will also be some gusty northwest breezes for areas west of the Cascades today. Expect the strongest winds to peak around 25-30 kt today. Southerly flow is in place over the region today and some instability late this afternoon/evening could lead to iso/sct showers (even a thunderstorm?) in some spots from western Siskiyou County up across the Siskiyous to the Cascades (thunder probability is about 10-20% in these areas). With decent mid-level flow anything that gets going could drift over the valleys (mostly Jackson/eastern Douglas), but as far west as Illinois Valley, Grants Pass and even perhaps Roseburg during the evening. Overnight, an upper trough will move onshore with more widespread MVFR clouds and coastal showers spreading inland by Wednesday morning. The showers could reach northern Klamath and Lake counties Wednesday morning, but areas south and east of the mountains will largely remain dry with VFR. Things mostly dry out with a much cooler air mass Wednesday afternoon. -Spilde/BR-y && .MARINE...Updated 815 AM PDT Tuesday, May 12, 2026...Relatively calm conditions are expected today with sub-advisory seas and winds shifting to southwest by this afternoon. An incoming low pressure system will bring showers late tonight into Wednesday, along with increasing west winds and west swell. Despite this, below advisory conditions are expected to persist as seas increase some, but remain swell dominated. Gusty north winds could return Thursday with steep seas possible by Friday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 AM PDT Tue May 12 2026/ DISCUSSION... A marine stratus layer covers sections of the coast with some mid and high clouds moving over the forecast area this morning. Today will be an interesting day with regards to synoptic weather across southern Oregon and northern California. A low off the Oregon coast will take on a negative tilt later this evening, providing some extra dynamics for convection and strong winds across the forecast region. It will be a breezy day with sustained winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph east of the Cascades this afternoon and evening. It looks like the stronger winds aloft around 9000 feet show up late in the evening and overnight hours when we`re not mixing, so we`ll avoid the really strong winds. In any case, there is an elevated fire weather risk east of the Cascades in Lake and Modoc counties as winds and humidities in the lower teens combine for a few hours. The hot dry wind index is above the 95th percentile for this time of year with values around 200 to 300, which isn`t bad during fire season, yet unusually high for this time of year. Thunderstorms are another concern, specifically along the Cascade crest. the GFS forecast soundings show uncapped CAPE around 800 J/kg later this evening with 0-6km shear around 50 knots along the Cascade crest, which is rather healthy. It looks like the high resolution models are most ambitious with convection to our north, although we wouldn`t be surprised with a few thunderstorms firing near Crater Lake this afternoon. The SPC HREF lightning probability is around 10% for that area, so odds aren`t that good. Eventually, this low and a cold front will push onshore during the overnight hours. The precipitation mode along this front will just be showers and thunderstorms are not expected along the coast overnight. Many would consider this beneficial rain with a few tenths falling along the coast with a few hundreths farther inland up to the Cascades. Once the cold front moves through, temperatures will trend notably lower by 10 to 15 degrees compared to Tuesday. This will push us to more normal Spring weather with a brief warm up into the 80`s on Thursday before we cool again on Friday. By Saturday, models are bringing another low and cold front, although precipitation will be very light over our area. The best chances for rain will be to the north in northern Oregon. There is pretty good consensus that we dry out after Saturday with temperatures warming into the 80`s here in Medford next week. -Smith && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$

791 FXUS66 KEKA 120744 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1244 AM PDT Tue May 12 2026 .SYNOPSIS...An upper level low approaching will bring cooler temperatures today with some light rain tonight and early Wednesday for the north coast. Temperatures are expected to warm again Thursday before another weak shortwave brings cooler temperatures Friday and Saturday. Warmer weather is expected early next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures and coastal drizzle Tuesday. - Light rain or drizzle forecast for Tuesday night and Wednesday morning for Del Norte and Humboldt counties, mostly dry weather for areas farther east and south. - Breezy winds Friday and this weekend. .DISCUSSION...The approaching upper level low is bringing onshore flow and marine stratus. This will likely keep the coastal areas fairly cloudy and in the upper 50s. The nearly coastal areas will see the most cooling on Tuesday with highs 10 degrees cooler. Farther inland in Trinity county, eastern Mendocino county and Lake county will see only a few degrees of cooling. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning the weak frontal boundary brings some light rain to Humboldt and Del Norte counties. A tenth to a quarter of an inch is expected in these counties with the heaviest rain in the mountains of Del Norte county. Farther south and east only a trace to a tenth of an inch is expected. There is still the potential for higher rainfall amounts with a 10 percent of over an inch in Del Norte county. High temperatures will be notably lower on Wednesday with areas seeing highs in the 60s near the coast and 70s farther inland. Wednesday afternoon through Thursday high pressure starts to build into the area and most of the inland areas expected to see highs warming into the 80s. Friday and Saturday the flow starts to become more zonal and a shortwave moves by to the north of the area. This will bring slightly cooler temperatures Friday with additional cooling on Saturday. Also, gusty winds are expected starting on Thursday and increasing Friday and into the weekend. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph are possible with locally higher gusts possible in favored areas. The strongest winds are expected to be on Sunday. High pressure starts to build in on Sunday bring a return of the heat. This will bring some offshore flow and with the ridge axis well to the west of the area this should clear out the coastal clouds. Winds continue to increase on Saturday and Sunday. Gusts of 25 to 35 mph are possible with locally higher gusts possible in favored areas. The strongest winds are expected to be on Sunday. The breezy winds along the coast and this will likely help keep the high temperatures on the coast in the low 60s. Inland areas are expected to warm into the 70s to low 80s. Early next week highs are expected to warm into the upper 80s to low 90s inland. This brings minor heat risk to much of the area on Monday. MKK && .AVIATION...The approaching upper level low is bringing onshore flow and marine stratus. IFR to LIFR conditions are expected at the coastal airports. CIGS are expected to lift this afternoon to MVFR, but remain cloudy. There is stratus developing south of Ukiah in Sonoma county. This could make it north into KUKI, but at this point the marine layer looks too shallow and winds are expected to be too weak. Tuesday evening as the low continues to approach CIG may start to lift with some light rain or drizzle on the north coast towards morning. MKK && .MARINE...Northerly winds continue to diminish over the waters this morning, especially in the northern waters. The seas are a combination of wind driven waves and a 10 seconds west swell. In the north, most of the water energy is in the swell, while farther south the wind driven waves persist. Tuesday night into early Wednesday a weak front is expected to move through. This is expected to bring some rain to the area and a brief period of southerly winds in the northern waters Tuesday night. Wednesday morning northwest winds return and increase again. These are expected to reach 10 to 20 kt by late afternoon with the strongest winds south of Cape Mendocino. Winds are expected to continue to increase on Thursday with 20 to 30 kt winds by the afternoon. There may be some gale force gusts south of Cape Mendocino. Friday and into the weekend the winds continue with sustained gale force winds possible by Sunday. The steep short periods waves expected to dominate the wave environment. MKK && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

914 FXUS66 KMTR 121900 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1200 PM PDT Tue May 12 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM PDT Tue May 12 2026 - Cooling trend continues today and Wednesday - Elevated fire weather risk for far interior San Benito and Monterey counties this afternoon and evening - Warming and drying trend resumes Thursday through the weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 PM PDT Tue May 12 2026 (This evening through Wednesday) The satellite imagery shows stratus coverage across the coastal regions and some lingering into the valleys of the Bay Area as a thin layer of high clouds persists over the region, with gradual clearing across the inland and Bayshore regions into the afternoon while the coast remains socked in. Stratus coverage should rebuild this evening and overnight but should not come as far into the southern Salinas Valley or the North Bay valleys as we saw this morning. The large scale weather pattern features a departing ridge moving into the northern and central Rockies while a trough centered on an upper level low around 500 miles to the west of the Oregon Coast moves in, resulting in a gradual cooling trend today into Wednesday and an expansion of the marine layer. The latest readings from the Bodega Bay profiler suggest a marine layer around 1500-2000 feet thick, remaining rather consistent through the next couple of days as the trough passes through the region. High temperatures today will range from the upper 70s to the lower 80s in the inland valleys, the upper 80s to lower 90s in southern Monterey and San Benito Counties, the middle 60s to the middle 70s in the bayshore regions, and the upper 50s to lower 60s along the Pacific coast. Highs might be a few degrees cooler where the stratus is slower to dissipate than the forecast or does not clear out this afternoon. Low temperatures on Wednesday morning range from the upper 40s to the middle 50s across the lower elevations, while Wednesday`s highs will range from the lower 70s to the lower 80s for the inland valleys. As the trough moves through, the increasing pressure gradients will result in breezy and gusty winds starting this afternoon through Wednesday, with the gusts reaching 20 to 30 mph across the coastal and higher elevation regions and the northern Salinas Valley. Isolated favored regions, namely the Mayacama range and the Altamont Pass, may reach gusts of 40 to 45 mph this evening and overnight. Elevated fire weather risks will set up starting this afternoon across a narrow strip of the far interior San Benito and Monterey counties adjacent to the Central Valley. A particularly concerning combination of gusty winds, hot temperatures, low daytime humidities, and poor overnight humidity recoveries across this region will result in a period of elevated fire weather concerns across this strip through the evening hours. Any fires that start in the drier grasses across this region may take hold and spread rather quickly. Our neighbors in Hanford have issued a Red Flag Warning for the adjacent zones across the western edge of Fresno County, but in our area of responsibility. the fire weather concerns are not widespread enough to warrant any products. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 PM PDT Tue May 12 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday) As the trough moves out, warmer and drier weather will return to the region with highs on Thursday and Friday in the 80s to the lower 90s in the interior valleys, the middle 70s to lower 80s across the Bays, and the lower to middle 60s in the Pacific coast. A second trough coming down from the Gulf of Alaska will interrupt the warming trend this weekend, with inland highs dipping in to the lower 70s to lower 80s on Saturday before bouncing back to the upper 70s to middle 80s for Sunday. Uncertainty in the forecast starts to increase in the early part of next week as the ensemble models struggle to diagnose the interaction between an upper level ridge and trough over the western United States. Model ensemble means from the American GEFS, European ECMWF, and Canadian GEPS models suggest a ridge over the eastern Pacific and a trough over the Rockies should develop by Monday morning, although with significant differences in the strength of both features. However, a peek into the model ensemble clusters reveals a significant minority of the ensemble members (around 30- 40%) show an alternate scenario where more zonal flow or troughing develops over the West Coast, nudging the forecast towards cooler temperatures. Past the 7-day outlook, CPC outlooks into the later part of May show a slight lean towards temperatures above seasonal averages, and precipitation totals near or above seasonal averages. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1059 AM PDT Tue May 12 2026 A deep marine layer produced widespread stratus across the region this morning. Stratus is receding with all sites except HAF and MRY likely to clear by 19/20Z. Winds strengthen by the afternoon/evening with gusts to around 20-30 knots expected along the coastline. A dry cold front will push through tonight with moderate confidence in the timing of cloud cover arrival. Currently kept a later stratus arrival (09/10Z) for most sites but LAMP guidance shows some potential for stratus to return closer to 05/06Z. This cold front will also result in widespread gusty winds along the coast and across the bay shoreline early tomorrow morning. For now, kept tomorrow morning`s gusts limited to HAF, OAK, and SFO but gusts are expected to pick up at the remaining airports after 18Z tomorrow. Vicinity of SFO...Stratus is receding from SFO and should dissipate by 19Z. Gusts are expected to pick up by late this morning with the site to remain gusty through the end of the TAF period. Bumped up the afternoon/evening gusts to 30 knots with around a 10% chance of stronger gusts to 35 knots. We do expect gusts to ease slightly overnight (20-25 knots) but gustier winds (30-35 knots) are expected to return tomorrow afternoon/evening. Moderate confidence that stratus will return around 09Z with some potential for stratus to return as early as 03-06Z. Stratus should clear by late tomorrow morning with VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach....Generally similar to SFO. Expect stratus to fill in over the bay this evening and linger through late tomorrow morning. Similar to SFO, gusty winds are expected over the bay with the potential for sustained winds around 20 knots and gusts between 30-35 knots tomorrow afternoon/evening. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR at SNS through early this evening. IFR- LIFR CIGs are expected to persist at MRY through the TAF period with a continued stream of stratus onshore making it unlikely for MRY to clear this afternoon. Moderate confidence in IFR-LIFR CIGs developing again tonight with LIFR CIGs becoming more likely by early tomorrow morning. Breezy onshore winds are expected this afternoon/evening with gustier onshore winds to develop late tomorrow morning and continuing through the evening. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 949 PM PDT Mon May 11 2026 Occasional strong gusts continue through tonight across the far northern outer waters. Otherwise, a moderate to fresh northwest breeze will continue over the waters through midweek. Seas subside but remain moderate with 4 to 6 foot seas through midweek. Winds increase and seas build starting mid-week with gale force winds and wave heights in excess of 10 feet likely starting Friday and continuing through the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Wednesday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10- 60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

173 FXUS66 KOTX 121806 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1106 AM PDT Tue May 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Very warm temperatures Tuesday resulting in Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk. This level of heat primarily affects those who are sensitive to heat. - Cold water temperatures pose a high risk for cold water shock and hypothermia. Wear a life jacket if recreating on or near the water. - Widespread showers, chances for thunderstorms, and gusty winds Wednesday. Gusty winds may lead to choppy lakes, strong cross winds, and isolated areas of blowing dust where precipitation is limited. && .SYNOPSIS... Dry and very warm today, with high int the mid 80s to low 90s. Conditions turn cooler Wednesday, with strong west to southwest winds, widespread showers and chances for thunderstorms. Breezy winds and chances for mountain showers and thunderstorms linger Thursday through Saturday. Some frost is possible toward the end of the week into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Tuesday: An amplifying ridge of high pressure over the region will support notably warm temperatures on Tuesday with afternoon highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s. Despite the warm air temperatures, water temperatures are still cold enough to cause cold water shock and hypothermia. Please use caution and wear a life jacket when recreating on or near water. Tuesday night through Wednesday: A pattern change will take place midweek as the ridge axis shifts eastward into Montana and a low pressure system moves onshore from the west. Since yesterday, ensemble members have come into much better agreement on the trajectory of the low with nearly all members now depicting a track inland along the WA/OR border. The approaching low will place the Inland Northwest under southerly flow, ushering moisture into the region. This track will bring widespread showers with PoPs ranging from 60 to 90 percent regionwide Wednesday afternoon. Precipitation amounts will be highest over the Cascade Crest, Northern mountains, and ID Panhandle with rainfall totals between 0.25 to 0.5 inches. For the eastern third of WA, rainfall amounts fall between 0.07 to 0.15 inches. Central WA will see the lowest precip amounts ranging from a trace to 0.10 inches. The dynamics associated with the low will provide favorable conditions for thunderstorms to develop Wednesday afternoon and evening across much of Eastern WA and the ID Panhandle. In addition to precip, the low will bring significantly cooler temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s. Many locations will see a 15 to 20 degree drop in afternoon highs from Tuesday to Wednesday. Rapidly cooling temperatures are almost always accompanied by gusty winds, and this case is no different. Winds will ramp up through the day on Wednesday with sustained wind speeds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts of 40 to 55 mph (locally higher near the Blue Mountains). Wind Advisories have been issued across a large portion of Eastern WA and a High Wind Warning has been issued for the Pomeroy/Anatone/Peola area. Thursday through Saturday: A broader upper level trough with embedded disturbances will shift over the region through the end of the week and into the weekend keeping temperatures cool with periodic chances for mountain showers and thunderstorms. Sunday onward: Models suggest ridging developing Sunday into early next week bringing a return of clear skies and light winds. If this pans out, overnight temperatures may cool off enough for frost to develop. /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: Upper-level ridge is amplifying this afternoon in response to an approaching low pressure system. Increasing mid and upper level moisture is bringing an increase in clouds ahead of this system. High resolution models are showing shower and isolated thunderstorms moving into eastern Washington and north Idaho from the south potentially as early as 04Z, though confidence increases after 06Z. The best chances for thunderstorms exists for the Cascades and far northeast Washington between 06-12Z with confidence not high enough to include in any TAF sites. Shower coverage increases later Wednesday afternoon with ceilings at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE trending toward 3k feet near the end of the TAF period. Winds are expected to increase mid Wednesday morning ahead of a cold front with south-southwest winds 20-25 knots and gusts up to 30 knots through 18Z. Peak winds are expected between 18Z Wednesday and 00Z Thursday with west to southwest gusts 30-45 knots from the lee of the Cascades through the Columbia Basin and the Palouse. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions for all TAF sites. Low confidence is showers and t-storms impacting TAF sites between 04-12Z Wednesday. Best chances near KEAT, with some isolated activity possible at other TAF sites. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 84 53 67 44 65 43 / 0 0 60 40 0 10 Coeur d`Alene 84 53 65 45 62 43 / 0 10 70 70 0 10 Pullman 83 51 63 42 61 41 / 0 0 60 40 0 0 Lewiston 88 56 70 48 69 46 / 0 0 50 30 0 0 Colville 85 49 71 37 69 37 / 0 20 70 50 0 10 Sandpoint 83 55 66 42 62 42 / 0 0 70 80 0 0 Kellogg 88 53 67 43 60 42 / 0 0 70 90 30 10 Moses Lake 90 54 70 44 71 42 / 0 0 70 10 0 0 Wenatchee 86 57 67 48 69 46 / 0 20 70 0 0 0 Omak 87 57 72 41 71 42 / 0 10 80 10 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for Moses Lake Area-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area. High Wind Warning from 5 AM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Northeast Blue Mountains. ID...Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse-Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area. && $$

141 FXUS66 KPDT 121837 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1137 AM PDT Tue May 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate Heat Risk This Afternoon - Isolated Thunderstorms possible Tonight and Wednesday - High Winds on Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... The warming ridge we are experiencing Today that will bring hot temperatures in the 80s and 90s will be replaced by a cooling eastern Pacific trough on Wednesday. A belt of moisture transport will bring widespread rain showers to the region, with NBM means showing one o to two tenths of an inch across the eastern mountains, and slightly less than that across the lower elevations like the Columbia Basin. HREF 4 hour probability of thunder suggest the potential for tapping into instability across the northern Blues and Oregon cascades by late this evening, but isolated at best with 10 to 20% chances for lightning. That activity remains an overnight phenomenon ending before sunrise, but regenerating in the afternoon Wednesday especially across the mountains areas as overall instability will be weaker but showers more scattered to numerous (again lightning still isolated at 10%). Onshore pressure gradients will be the primary driver for winds developing late Tonight and impacting through the day on Wednesday as the Portland to Spokane pressure gradient increases to about 10 mb or higher. This will produce strong sustained winds above 25 to 30 mph through the Gorge and foothills of the Blues as well as the Cascade Gaps where gusts will commonly be pushing 50 mph on Wednesday; as early as in the morning hours. Wind advisories have been hoisted across the eastern Columbia Gorge beginning late This Evening, expanding across central Oregon, Lower Columbia Basin and the foothills of the northern Blue Mountains in Washington, Yakima and Kittitas Valleys by sunrise Wednesday. High Wind Warning for higher gust around 60 mph covers the Simcoe Highlands and foot hills of the Blue Mountains of Oregon Wednesday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...Mostly VFR conditions to prevail through the period. An upper low approaching the region will produce showers and isolated to scattered thunderstorms starting mid to late afternoon through tomorrow. There is about a <10% chance of an isolated shower/thunderstorm impacting RDM/BDN later this afternoon, but otherwise shower chances will increase after 06Z and continue through the end of the period at these sites and site DLS. For sites PDT/YKM/ALW/PSC, shower chances will increase after 12Z. A prob30 for thunder was included at site YKM for the morning period. Winds of 15-25kts with gusts 25-45kts will develop at site DLS this evening, then develop at sites PDT/RDM/BDN/ALW/PSC after 13Z. Strong winds will persist through the end of the period. Lawhorn/82 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 85 51 65 44 / 0 0 70 10 ALW 88 55 65 48 / 0 0 80 20 PSC 91 55 70 47 / 0 0 70 10 YKM 87 53 68 43 / 0 10 80 0 HRI 88 53 68 46 / 0 0 70 0 ELN 83 47 61 39 / 0 20 90 10 RDM 90 42 62 32 / 0 40 60 0 LGD 91 50 63 40 / 0 10 80 20 GCD 94 48 65 37 / 0 20 70 0 DLS 88 52 67 48 / 0 40 70 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ024. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ026>029. High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ521. OR...Wind Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ041. Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ044-510. High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ507- 508. && $$ DISCUSSION...71 AVIATION...82

577 FXUS65 KREV 120908 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 208 AM PDT Tue May 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Near record high temperatures will produce moderate HeatRisk across lower valleys today. * Gusty winds and low shower chances are anticipated today and Wednesday. Strong outflow winds are possible this afternoon. * Dry weather with above average temperatures expected later this week followed by some cooling for the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... The latest RAP analysis of the upper air pattern shows a upper ridge over the western CONUS with a Pacific closed low trailing behind it. Going through the day, model guidance projects the ridge getting pushed eastward with the low moving towards the OR/WA coast. This pattern aloft will allow for one last day of temperatures around 15-20 degrees above May normals. NE CA and W NV valleys have daytime highs forecast in the upper 80s to middle 90s range while Sierra communities expect to range between the middle 70s and lower 80s. These temperatures will bring another day of minor to moderate HeatRisk to the area, so please remember to stay hydrated and limit exposure to the sun during the warmest parts of the day, especially if you have outdoor plans and are sensitive to heat. Rivers are still running cold and fast, so please exercise caution around them as entering into them to cool off can become dangerous quickly. Winds also look to be the concern today in two different ways. Within NE CA and northern Washoe County, southwest winds with gusts up to around 35-45 mph are forecast in the afternoon due to the low approaching the NW CONUS. A Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for lakes in those areas today, so please refer to this product for more details. Other portions of the CWA will have gusts generally between 25-35 mph this afternoon. Please also keep these winds in mind if you have travel or outdoor recreation plans. The second way winds could be a concern in the region involves possible strong outflow winds (erratic gusts of 40+ mph) as CAM guidance continues to show potential isolated showers and thunderstorms (<15% chance) later today. The window looks to open around 4 PM this afternoon with showers developing in Mono and Mineral Counties with coverage spreading into of the region going into the evening. As these high-based showers and storms will have a large dry layer underneath them, not much precipitation is expected to reach the ground. However, the environment shows that strong outflow gusts may occur from them which can blow dust causing reduced visibilities. For Wednesday, forecast guidance depicts the upper low making its way into WA/OR and opening into a trough. This will cause a cold front passage in the region through the day allowing for milder temperatures and increased winds. The forecast has valley areas with daytime highs cooling down to between the mid-70s and mid-80s with Sierra communities in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Wednesday. Afternoon winds will gust up to around 30-40 mph areawide (up to around 60 mph in the Sierra ridges) out of the west. This will cause wind impacts to travel and recreation for more portions of the region, including choppy lake waters and reduced visibility from blowing dust near desert areas and sinks. While most of the region will stay dry, low chances (<10%) for afternoon showers are seen in areas near the OR border as well in the Eastern Sierra. Dry conditions will prevail beginning Thursday and going through the weekend. High temperatures expect to rebound a bit on Friday with a brief pause in the cooldown. However, the cooldown resumes over the weekend with area high temperatures forecast in the 60s and 70s. -078 && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected at all area TAF sites today and tonight. South to southwest winds will gust up to around 25-30 kts within the region this afternoon between 12/18Z-13/03Z. There is a low chance (<15%) for isolated showers and thunderstorms within the region this afternoon and evening that could produce strong, erratic outflow gusts. VFR conditions are forecast again on Wednesday with westerly afternoon winds gusting up to around 35 kts possible. -078 && .CLIMATE... Both climate sites set new record high temperatures yesterday for the May 11th date. The Reno-Tahoe International Airport recorded a high of 92F, breaking the old record of 90F set in 2001 and 2013. South Lake Tahoe, CA recorded a high of 80F, breaking the old record of 78F set in 2013. Current record high temperature for May 12th at Reno, NV that has potential to be broken or tied today: 89F, set in 1959 and 2013. Current record high temperature for May 12th at South Lake Tahoe, CA that has potential to be broken or tied today: 79F, set in 1988 and 1996. && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ071. && $$

180 FXUS66 KSTO 121810 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1110 AM PDT Tue May 12 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will trend less hot today and will be noticeably cooler by Wednesday, though still be above normal. - Temperatures trend warmer late week into the weekend, with areas of Moderate HeatRisk returning - Gusty north to east winds are expected for the weekend, coupled with low humidity, bringing elevated fire weather concerns for lower elevations && .DISCUSSION... ....Today... Warm weather but cooler than yesterday is expected with widespread Minor HeatRisk throughout the forecast area. The Valley will see afternoon highs in the 80s and 90s with warmest weather across the lower foothills and northern San Joaquin Valley. This evening will see a trough push our ridging further east and alleviate some of our heat impacts midweek. ...Wednesday through Weekend... As the ridge pulls eastward, we will see cooling on Wednesday returning highs to the 80s and Minor HeatRisk across the Valley. Ensembles continue to trend drier for the trough passage with most locations now remaining dry outside of slight shower chances over Shasta County. Overall, expecting little to no impacts from precipitation over the next several days. Concerns for gusty northerly winds are increasing for the weekend as ensembles are starting to lean more towards an inside-slider type shortwave shifting into the Great Basin. Today`s models trended slightly weaker for Saturday but stronger on Sunday in regards to wind strength but similar affected areas. Current forecast have north winds gusts of 30 to 45 MPH this weekend, strongest on Sunday and along Interstate 5. Additionally, dry conditions develop particularly over the Sacramento Valley, especially north of Interstate 80, with the NBM showing minimum Relative Humidity getting into the teens and upper single digits. Ultimately, this brings elevated fire weather concerns for the Valley and portions of the Delta and will continue to monitor model trends to evaluate strength of winds/drying effect over the Valley. Saturday`s Chances for Wind Gusts > 35 MPH: 40-60% Sunday`s Chances for Wind Gusts > 35 MPH: 60-85% Please continue to practice fire safety and monitor your latest forecast to stay up to date at weather.gov/sacramento && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Breezy south-southwest wind gusts up to 15-25 kts in the Valley and Delta, and up to 25-35 kts over the mountains until around 06z-09z Wednesday. Locally breezy west-northwest winds develop after 18z Wednesday, with gusts up to 15-20 kts across portions of the southern Sacramento Valley, northern San Joaquin Valley and Delta and gusts up to 25-35 kts over the Sierra. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

764 FXUS65 KMSO 121851 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1251 PM MDT Tue May 12 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Near-record heat today: Highs will reach the 80s to low 90s. Rivers remain dangerously cold and fast; use extreme caution near the water. - Two distinct wind threats Wednesday: 1. Damaging thunderstorm winds: Gusts over 60 mph are possible Wednesday afternoon, mainly from Deer Lodge to Butte and southward. 2. Strong cold front winds: Gusty winds will arrive Wednesday afternoon and evening, creating dangerous conditions for boaters on lakes and increasing fire danger in southwest Montana. - Drastic temperature drop and hypothermia risk: Summer conditions end Wednesday night. Mountain highs will crash into the 40s on Thursday and the 30s this weekend with accumulating snow. Backcountry users must prepare for winter conditions. Frost is possible by Sunday morning. Today (Tuesday):High pressure brings one last day of near-record heat, with highs in the 80s and low 90s. Rapid snowmelt continues to keep rivers dangerously cold. Cold water shock is a severe hazard for anyone on the water today; even strong swimmers can be quickly incapacitated by these temperatures. Wednesday and Thursday (The Big Transition):Weather conditions will change abruptly on Wednesday as a strong cold front moves through. Missoula and Kalispell will likely see their warmest temperatures early in the day before readings begin to fall. The front is expected to reach the Camas Prairie in Idaho by mid- morning, west-central Montana by early afternoon, and the Butte area between 6:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. MDT. The Dual Wind Threat: Cold Front: Wind is the primary hazard on Wednesday. While scattered storms are possible, a rapid increase in air pressure behind the front will cause westerly wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph. These winds will create dangerous waves for small boats on Flathead Lake and other area waters. Expect some broken tree branches and isolated power outages. Thunderstorms: Showers and storms will form as early as noon over Lemhi County, moving northeast at 30 to 45 mph. Because the air is so dry, these storms could produce intense, damaging wind gusts. The highest risk is along Highway 93 in the Bitterroot and Missoula Valleys, extending east to the Continental Divide. This will create dangerous cross-winds on north-south highways and increase fire danger in southwest Montana. The Rain/Snow Shift: Rain and snow will focus primarily on the northern two-thirds of the region late Wednesday. Valleys may see up to 0.30 inches of rain, while mountains could receive up to 0.75 inches of liquid. As a cold storm system moves over the area, snow levels will drop to near 5,000 feet. Several inches of new snow are expected in the high country of Northwest Montana by Thursday morning. Backcountry users will encounter slushy snow on high-elevation roads. Combined with winds and temperatures in the 40s, this creates a high risk for hypothermia. Friday through the Weekend (Return to Winter): An unusually strong storm system from the Gulf of Alaska will settle over the Northern Rockies this weekend. Bitterly cold air will drop snow levels to 4,000 feet. Mountain highs will stay in the 30s, while valleys will struggle to reach the 50sabout 15 degrees below normal. Unstable air will trigger widespread showers all weekend. In the valleys, heavy bursts of soft hail (graupel) are possible. Bottom Line for the Weekend: Pack for winter if you are heading outdoors. The combination of wet snow, wind, and near-freezing temperatures is dangerous for those only prepared for spring. By Sunday and Monday morning, temperatures may drop low enough to cause frost, which could damage sensitive plants. && AVIATION...Clear skies and unseasonable heat continue through Tuesday with light winds. A dramatic change arrives Wednesday as a strong cold front brings sharp wind shifts and showers. Thunderstorm wind gusts up to 45 knots are possible at KSMN and over 50 knots at KBTM between noon and 6:00 p.m. Wednesday. Snow in the mountains of Northwest Montana will cause clouds to cover the peaks (mountain obscuration) Wednesday night, especially in the Glacier National Park region. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Wind Advisory from 9 AM Wednesday to midnight MDT Wednesday night for Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower Clark Fork Region. Wind Advisory from noon Wednesday to midnight MDT Wednesday night for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region...Flathead/Mission Valleys...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Wednesday night to 3 PM MDT Thursday for West Glacier Region. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday for Deerlodge/West Beaverhead...East Beaverhead. ID...None. && $$

270 FXUS65 KBOI 121757 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1157 AM MDT Tue May 12 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Record high temperatures in the 90s are expected across the lower valleys Today before a sharp cooling trend arrives Wednesday. - Becoming very windy and turning much cooler from west to east Wednesday, with showers and a chance of thunderstorms along and behind a strong Pacific cold front. - Slightly warmer Friday, then turning cooler again Saturday and Sunday, with light snow possible above 6000 feet in northern mountains. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... Issued 310 AM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026 Upper level ridging remains the dominant feature across the western United States today. This will result in record breaking heat for many locations, with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s across the lower valleys. These temperatures are roughly 20 to 25 degrees above seasonal normals. High-res models indicate increasing mid-level moisture across south-central Idaho this afternoon, which will be enough for cumulus development but is unlikely (10% chance) to produce thunderstorms. The weather pattern undergoes a significant shift Wednesday as a deep Pacific low pressure system moves toward the Oregon coast. As the ridge shifts east toward the Continental Divide, a steep thermal and height gradient will develop. This environment will support the formation of a strong surface cold front that is expected to sweep through the region from west to east on Wednesday. Expect strong winds to develop along and behind the front, particularly across southern sections of our area where a Wind Advisory has been issued. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph are possible. The fast moving nature of the front and dry lower levels could lead to blowing dust and reduced visibility in areas that stay dry. While precipitation will be limited to the main low passage well north of the forecast area, there looks to be enough mid-level moisture for a slight chance of thunderstorms across south- central Idaho Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will turn much cooler behind the front, dropping significantly from Tuesday`s heat. Showers will continue Wednesday night, especially across the northern mountains where snow levels will begin to fall toward the higher peaks by Thursday morning. On Thursday, the upper level trough moves east, leaving the region under a drier northwest flow. A 20 percent chance of showers will persist over the mountains of southwest Idaho. Breezy west to northwest winds will continue through Thursday, specifically across the Magic Valley, though wind speeds will be lower than Wednesday. Daytime highs on Thursday will return to near normal values. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... Issued 310 AM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026 Come early Friday, there is strong guidance agreement that our area will remain under a dry west-northwest zonal flow, continuing a near- normal temperature trend. A shortwave trough will dig across the area from off the northwest coast Saturday through Sunday. This pattern will be mostly dry over our area, favoring some light isolated showers over the northernmost mountain areas of our CWA. A cooling trend from this pattern will drop daytime temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal over the weekend. Come Monday through Tuesday, there is some guidance disagreement over whether the area will stay under a west-northwest zonal flow or be under another dry shortwave trough. For now, dry conditions and a warming trend to normal temperatures are expected early next week. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 1141 AM MDT TUE MAY 12 2026 VFR with scattered high clouds. High density altitude possible due to hot temperatures. Surface winds increasing to ESE 5-15 kt this afternoon, with gusts 20-25 kt mainly over SE OR and Magic Valley. Areas of LLWS developing late this evening. Isolated to scattered showers over SE OR from near KBNO to KBKE and west-central ID Mtns Wednesday early morning ahead of a cold front. KBOI...VFR. Winds SE 8-11 kt with gusts to 15 kt after 20Z. High density altitude possible 20Z-Wed/01Z due to hot temperatures. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Wind Advisory from noon Wednesday to midnight MDT Wednesday night for IDZ012-014>016-028>030. OR...Wind Advisory from noon MDT /11 AM PDT/ Wednesday to midnight MDT /11 PM PDT/ Wednesday night for ORZ063-064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....TL SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JY

108 FXUS65 KLKN 121850 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1150 AM PDT Tue May 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * High pressure produces warm and dry weather through Wednesday. * Record high temperatures are likely through Wednesday, followed by cooler temperatures. * Gusty winds Wednesday afternoon. * Wind Advisory has been issued for northern Nevada Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper ridge is still on track to keep dry weather with potential for record breaking high temperatures today. High temperatures today is expected to reach above 80s degrees across the region with an 80-100% chance that northern Nevada will see above 85 degrees. Tomorrow, the chances for high temperatures to reach above 80 degrees drop to 40% for northern Nevada (except for West Wendover expected to see 90 degrees). Some breezy winds expected over central Nevada with speeds up to 10-15 mph, gusts 20-25 mph. Wednesday, low pressure to the northwest will weaken the upper ridge and push to a more zonal flow by the evening. Main concerns is high winds across the region with stronger winds in northern Nevada up to 20-25 mph, gusts 35-45 mph which prompted a Wind Advisory for northern Nevada from 10 AM to 11 PM. High winds may cause blowing dust throughout much of the region which may limit visibility. Recent model trends are now showing no chance for showers over northern Nevada, as the low pressure stays to the north. Some clouds may develop as there will be mid-level moisture in the atmosphere, but not enough to produce wetting rains. There is still a 15% chance for some dry thunderstorms over northeastern Elko County Wednesday afternoon. Zonal flow is expected to stay in place over Nevada for the rest of the week and into next week, keeping the upper ridge from building back up. This will aid in starting a cooling temperature trend through the weekend, bringing temperatures down to slightly above normal through Saturday with highs in the 70s, and to near normal by Sunday. Temperatures will start back on a warming trend by Monday, but stay relatively in the 70s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for warm temperatures today with potential record breaking temps. High confidence for strong gusty winds tomorrow prompting a Wind Advisory for northern Nevada. Low confidence for dry thunderstorm activity over northeastern Nevada. Moderate confidence for cooling temperature trend Thursday through the weekend. Adjust winds grids in the NBM to better reflect recent model runs. && .AVIATION...Look for VFR conditions across all terminals over the next 24 hour period. Breezy westerly winds over all terminals (except for KENV) with speeds up to 10-12 kts, gusts 20-25 kts. Tomorrow, westerly winds expected to be stronger across the region with speeds up to 15-20 kts, gusts 30-35 kts with strongest winds over the northern terminals. Mid-level moisture will aid in developing CIG levels between FL120-FL180. No chance for showers to impact the terminals but dry thunderstorms are not ruled out over northeastern Nevada. VFR conditions expected across all terminals, but strong gusty winds may cause blowing dust. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday NVZ030-031-033-034-036-038-039. && $$ DISCUSSION...97 AVIATION...97