206 FXUS66 KSEW 140409 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 909 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms will continue over the mountains this afternoon and Friday afternoon under the influence of an upper level trough. Southwest flow aloft will develop over the weekend, bringing some warming ahead of another weak trough at the beginning of next week that will likely bring slightly cooler and unsettled conditions. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Convection continues over the northern Cascades this evening. Expect thunderstorm activity to continue subsiding into tonight. Otherwise no major updates to the forecast. Refer to an updated aviation discussion. An upper level trough will remain in place over western Washington into friday. This trough will help the air mass become unstable this afternoon and evening over the Cascades and the Olympics, especially the higher terrain. We`ll continue to see chances for scattered convection this afternoon and evening, primarily for areas in the Cascades and Olympics. In any thunderstorm that develops, we could see the potential for abundant lightning, erratic wind gusts up to 40 mph, and localized wetting rains that could produce and elevated risk of burn scar debris flows. Additionally, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect this evening for those aforementioned areas. For more information about fire wx conditions, see the .FIRE WEATHER section down below. Generally, we`ll see high temperatures this afternoon in the upper 70s to lower 80s in spots with a mix of sun and haze. Onshore flow will continue tonight and into Friday morning, with a shallow marine layer moving inland by the morning. High temperatures on Friday will be slightly cooler, in the upper 70s for most locations. The atmosphere will continue to remain unstable Friday afternoon - which will lead to another chance of scattered thunderstorms, primarily in the Cascades and Olympics. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for those areas - primarily for lightning and gusty outflow winds. Weak ridging will influence the area heading into Saturday, which will lead to generally warm and dry conditions. A few showers may still be possible in the Cascades, but overall a typical summer day with high temperatures in the low 80s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Warm and dry conditions continuing on Sunday with high temperatures in the lower 80s. Upper level troughing looks to maintain influence over the area through midweek, allowing for onshore flow in variable strengths throughout the week. Unsettled and cooler conditions through the remainder of the week, with high temperatures in the mid 70s. Mazurkiewicz && .AVIATION... Interior terminals VFR this evening and IFR/LIFR along the coast. Thunderstorm activity continues for the Cascades this evening, but is expected to stay away from the main terminals. Additionally, smoke from fires will primarily remain elevated over the terminals, but areas near fires will see poor surface visibilities. Another marine push is expected for Friday morning. Slight increase in probabilities for IFR/LIFR conditions. IFR probabilities currently around 40-60% and LIFR around 20-40%. Some areas of fog can`t be ruled out within the marine push. Improvement to VFR expected for interior terminals after 17z. Calm to light northwest winds tonight will increase out of the west/southwest on Friday to 5-10 kt. KSEA...VFR conditions this evening. Probabilities for IFR/LIFR conditions have trended slightly upwards. Latest probabilities hint at a 30-50% chance for IFR cigs and 20-40% chance for LIFR cigs between 13z-15z. Improvement to VFR i the afternoon. Light northwest winds will shift southwesterly Friday morning, increasing to 4-7 kt. 29 && .MARINE... High pressure remains in the northeast Pacific through Friday. An upper level low will cut southward over the waters this weekend which will push the high towards the south. The high pressure will rebuild again over the coastal waters early next week. Main concern remains the diurnal westerly pushes through the Strait of Juan de Fuca, with probabilities for winds and/or gusts over 20 kt remaining low until Friday and Saturday evening. Seas next 7 days will remain at 3-6 ft. HPR && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns remain elevated to critical at times through Friday night. Air mass has already became unstable over the higher terrain this afternoon and will continue through the early evening hours with chances of thunderstorms and showers likely, primarily in the Cascades and Olympics. A Red Flag Warning is in effect through 9PM. In any thunderstorm that develops, we could see the potential for abundant lightning, erratic wind gusts up to 40 mph, and localized wetting rains. Additionally, A Fire Weather Watch has been issued for Friday afternoon and evening, for another round of convection across the Cascades and Olympics - primarily for lightning and gusty outflow winds. Upper level trough replaced by an upper level ridge over the weekend lessening but not eliminating the chances for convection over the mountains especially the Cascades. Another upper level trough moving into the area next week will once again increase fire weather concerns. Felton/Mazurkiewicz && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for East Portion of the Olympic Mountains-West Portion of the Olympic Mountains-West Slopes of the Central Cascades Generally above 1500 Feet-West Slopes of the North Cascades Generally above 1500 Feet. PZ...None. && $$

580 FXUS66 KPQR 140850 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 150 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions expected through next week with persistent onshore flow. Slight chances (10-20%) for thunderstorms or showers over the Cascades this afternoon and Saturday afternoon, with the highest chances along the crest of the Cascades. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday...Satellite imagery and surface observations as of early Friday morning depicts onshore flow supporting a solid marine layer along the coast with stratus clouds pushing through the gaps of the Coast Range and through the Lower Columbia River into the Cowlitz Valley. By 5-7 AM Friday, expect stratus clouds to make it`s way into the rest of the I-5 corridor including the Willamette Valley. After 9-11 AM Friday, clouds across interior valleys should begin clearing out as daytime heating progresses and increases mixing. Meanwhile, there remains uncertainty with how much clearing will occur at the coast. There is about a 50-60% chance at any given hour between 2-7 PM for marine stratus breaking out along the north Oregon coast, but lower confidence for clearing along the central Oregon coast. Expect dry and warm conditions today and through the weekend for the majority of locations as weak ridging builds over the Pacific Northwest and an upper level trough elongates well- offshore over the northeast Pacific Ocean. An exception would be the Cascades, where there is a 10-25% chance for isolated thunderstorms this afternoon and Saturday afternoon. As shortwaves from the broad parent trough offshore brings more southerly flow aloft over the area, will see increasing instability and monsoonal moisture supporting these thunderstorm chances. Any thunderstorms that develop may bring lightning, brief heavy rain, and erratic winds. Otherwise, the general airmass remains too dry to support any widespread precipitation west of the Cascades. Guidance suggests high confidence for near to slightly above average temperatures for mid-August through the weekend, with afternoon highs warming into the mid to upper 80s across interior valleys. Early next week, cluster analysis of 500 mb heights continue to suggest dry and seasonably warm conditions as broad upper level troughing remains well-offshore and an upper level ridge axis over the Rockies tilts into the Pacific Northwest. By mid-week, ensembles diverge into various upper level patterns. A little over half of ensemble members are favoring a trough entering the Pacific Northwest and returning cooler temperatures, while the other half favors warmer conditions due to zonal flow or amplified ridging. Either way, no precipitation is forecast as we maintain a dry summertime airmass. -10 && .AVIATION...Through 06Z Sat...West to southwesterly flow aloft as an upper level trough remains over the airspace. MVFR/IFR conditions have developed along the coast in marine stratus. These conditions will continue through the majority of the TAF period with a 50-70% chance of LIFR cigs at any given hour through 18z Fri. There`s a 20-40% chance that stratus could briefly improve to VFR along the coast at any point through 18z Fri through 02z Sat, though this improvement would not last long. Northwest to west winds less than 8 kts continue along the coast through the TAF period. Predominately VFR conditions expected for inland terminals through the TAF period. There`s the potential for marine stratus to push inland in the early morning hours with a 20-40% chance of MVFR cigs for most inland terminals except for a 50-70% chance at KEUG at any hour between 10-18z Fri. Additionally, smoke aloft continues to impact NW OR and SW WA and could mix down to the surface at times. Smoke could impact slant range visibilities for inland locations through Friday afternoon. North to northwest winds become light and variable overnight through Friday morning, becoming westerly after 18z Fri. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Generally VFR conditions through the TAF period. There`s a 30-50% chance of MVFR cigs developing at any hour between 12-18z Fri. Smoke in the mid levels could impact slant range visibilities through Friday afternoon and mix to the surface at times. Northwest winds less than 6 kts become variable overnight through Friday afternoon, becoming northwest again after 22z Fri. -03 && .MARINE...No significant changes in the overall pattern as high pressure offshore will continue to support northerly winds along with benign conditions across all waters through next week. Winds from the north to northwest with gusts less than 21 kts will continue through at least the weekend, with wind driven seas expected to remain around 3-5 ft. -10/42 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

582 FXUS66 KMFR 140600 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1100 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 .DISCUSSION...Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs. && .AVIATION...14/06Z TAFs... Along the coast, expect at least MVFR ceilings due to marine stratus, but also areas of IFR/LIFR, especially south of Cape Blanco overnight through Friday. The marine layer should have staying power on Friday due to enhanced onshore flow, so some areas won`t clear to VFR in the afternoon. Even if it does clear for a while, stratus will return Friday evening and overnight. Roseburg, VFR at the moment, will see MVFR ceilings develop tonight (around 10-11Z), and then last through around 19Z before becoming VFR again. Farther inland, isolated showers/thunderstorms continue this evening mainly east of Highway 97 and especially near Highways 140 and 31. These should wane overnight. We expect cumulus development Friday afternoon with isolated showers/thunderstorms again. Lightning probabilities are too low (5-15%) to include in any TAFs currently, but this may change as things develop Friday afternoon. Expect typical afternoon breezes to continue. The Fielder Mtn Fire near Rogue River may cause some smoke impacts (local MVFR visibility) at KMFR, but this will be evaluated with each TAF cycle to assess any potential visibiltiy reductons. -Spilde && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 628 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026/ DISCUSSION...Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs. AVIATION...14/00Z TAFs... New fire along I-5 near Rogue River (Fielder Mtn Fire) may cause some smoke impacts (local MVFR visibility) at KMFR this evening. Isolated showers and thunderstorms developing in northern Klamath/Lake counties will gradually diminish through this evening. Breezy conditions all areas will ease after sunset. Along the coast tonight, marine stratus at KOTH is MVFR at the moment, could occasionally lower to IFR overnight and persist through Friday. Brief break to VFR is possible there Friday afternoon, but should be short-lived. Expect the stratus to push inland to Roseburg with MVFR again for several hours Friday morning (10-19Z), then clearing to VFR. Expect some cumulus development again Friday afternoon along with isolated showers/thunderstorms. Typical afternoon breezes will continue. -Spilde PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 142 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Seasonably warm, dry, and breezy conditions continue to be the overall theme going forward * Thunderstorm chances increase today continuing through Saturday and again through early parts of next week with the main risk being isolated lightning and gusty erratic winds * Areas of smoke remain possible due to nearby wildfires DISCUSSION... A trough has formed over the western CONUS, and this general trough pattern will remain over the west coast for well into middle parts of next week. Beyond Wednesday, the pattern continues to show inconsistencies with the models out of phase from one another. This has resulted in some uncertainty, mainly middle to later parts of next week. This pattern will allow for several days of thunderstorm chances. While uncertainty exists on coverage details due to the isolated nature of these potential storms, the takeaway is that we`re not anticipating these to produce much--if any--rain. We are also expecting lightning to be very isolated. In fact, instability is not that great across the forecast area which further increases confidence in overall isolated storms. DCAPE values are still on the higher end in some model outputs, so any storms that happen to develop could lead to strong gusty outflows with speeds potentially around 45-55 mph. For each afternoon/early evening today through Saturday, northern parts of both Klamath and Lake counties are favored for isolated storms, but cannot rule out parts of northern California as well. We are not anticipating a Red Flag Warning at this time, but if coverage and/or lightning intensity increases we may have to reconsider this. That said, we are in peak fire season, so any lightning over these dry fuels could produce some initial attack starts, but this also depends on where the potential fires start. One concern for tomorrow is a signal in the models keeps "flip flopping", meaning its showing up in one run but then disappearing in subsequent runs. This is for isolated thunderstorms over the Siskiyou Mountains that border California and Oregon. In the low chance this occurs, a storm could spill over into the Rogue Valley. This is something we will continue to monitor for tomorrow, but at this time that threat is very low around 5%-10%. -Guerrero MARINE...Updated 130 PM PDT Thursday, August 13, 2026...Winds will continue to ease today/tonight, but continue at Small Craft Advisory strength through Friday morning. Weak winds and below advisory seas are expected Friday afternoon through at least Sunday morning. North winds early next week could reach Advisory strength south of Port Orford. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-370-376. && $$ MAS

049 FXUS66 KEKA 140754 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1254 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Slight chance of interior thunderstorms today into Saturday. * Smokey conditions likely from the MP18 Fire, focused in the Trinity River Valley and Trinity County. * Cooler temperatures are likely through next week. && .SYNOPSIS...A troughing pattern has set up over the region. Inland areas can expect cooler temperatures with the coast continuing to have overcast conditions and brief afternoon clearing. Passing shortwave disturbances increase the chance for storms inland. && .DISCUSSION...Last weeks high pressure center has migrated over east TX and has become what seems to be a steady standing wave. This is resulting in pronounced light troughing over the western seaboard. Monsoonal moisture continues to flow northward through the Great Basin area with some moisture reaching the Central Valley of California. Shortwave disturbances are predicted to wobble their way downstream of the upper level flow, increases vorticity and lift for the west as well. One result of this troughing besides cooler temperatures inland due to less compressional heating is the increased chance for rainshowers and thunderstorms for the interior. While moisture flow is not too impressive, these shortwave disturbances could have enough of an impact to promote convective activity through Saturday. Thursday afternoons storm chances failed to materialize in NW CA, yet tomorrow the atmospheric set up will be different. High resolution models are starting to grasp a passing shortwave disturbance tomorrow afternoon into the evening. The NAM12km model shows the shortwave setting up with its axis directly off the North Coast`s coastline. In addition, the HRRR Simulated IR model shows a band of light convection racing through NW CA later Friday. That said, there is limited moisture in the environment with approx. 0.2- 0.3" above normal PWAT values. In addition, smoke and cooler temperatures will decrease instability. This means that while it is likely that atmospheric forcing will be present, there is just not enough "juice" in the atmosphere to really get any convection started. However, any storms that DO form, will likely produce dry lighting and should be taken seriously if spotted. Lightning probability have been capped a "Slight Chance" for the area to capture this unlikely, yet highly impactful, weather event. Global ensembles show this synoptic feature continuing through next work week. Expect relatively repetitive weather conditions for the next 7 days. && .AVIATION...Coastal terminals can expect IFR with periodic LIFR through the end of the week. Winds will remain light (<10kts) for the coast as well. Inland areas will experience enhanced terrain forced winds with potential increased cloud coverage within river valleys. Smoke continues for the Trinity River Valley and much of Trinity County. && .MARINE...A relatively weak trough has set up over the region. This has caused a decrease in overall wind speeds. Waves remain steep, yet they should continue to decay through the end of the week. A southerly swell of ~3ft will build into the region by the weekend and will mix with northerly shorter period waves. However, the overall sea state should remain mixed with these two wave groups through the start of next week. Light to moderately breezy (~20kt) winds are expected through the extended forecast as of right now. && .FIRE WEATHER...A troughing pattern has set up over the region. This will result in lower daytime temperatures, increased RH values, and stronger winds due to increased mixing. Inversion are forecasted to be weaker and break earlier in the day. A deeper marine layer will reach further up river valleys through the night as well, possibly impacting any Rx burning operations. This afternoon, there is a low chance (10-15%) of highly impactful thunderstorms forming over the interior specifically for the Klamath, Salmon, and Yolla Bolly Mountains. Forecast confidence is very low due to decreased instability and relatively normal moisture, however lifting will be amplified due to a shortwave disturbance flowing over the region through the evening. Any storms that do form will have motions towards the NE which should decrease the chance of any impacts. However, DCAPE values remain amplified enough create gusts capable of traveling down river valleys. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until noon PDT today for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

635 FXUS66 KMTR 140602 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1102 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1101 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 - Well below normal temperatures with a deep marine layer and a chance for drizzle Friday - Gradual warming trend kicks off Saturday with temperatures slightly below normal into next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1101 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 (Tonight through Saturday) Upper-level shortwave troughing will bring the coolest conditions of the week with well below normal temperatures and a deep marine layer Friday. The 00Z sounding observed a marine layer of 2,400 feet with satellite already showing an inland intrusion through the Delta and Pacheco Pass. With the associated lift from the aforementioned trough, drizzle can be expected along the coast and in the higher terrain via orographic lift. Smoke from the Timber Fire is expected to improve with the help of northwesterly transport winds. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1101 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday) Gradual warming trend kicks off Saturday as upper-level ridging builds into the Desert Southwest. Simultaneously, upper-level troughing will develop well off the West Coast. This will keep the ridge in check and onshore flow in place with temperatures remaining below normal. The marine layer will likely be deeper in the Bay Area than in the Central Coast with a chance for drizzle remaining across the coast and higher terrain. Global ensemble clusters are in agreement through Tuesday and then by Wednesday 60% show troughing prevailing into Thursday. Sensible weather wise, this would result in a cooling trend with increased onshore flow and the deepening of the marine layer. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 959 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 MVFR-IFR stratus is expanding across the region and will impact all terminals overnight. Lingering southwesterly breezes will gradually diminish through the next few hours. Stratus is not expected to dissipate until early Friday afternoon, around 19-21Z for most terminals. Low to moderate confidence that more northwesterly flow will develop Friday afternoon and evening, with moderate to high confidence that stratus will again develop across the region on Friday evening, with moderate confidence on the exact timing. Vicinity of SFO... MVFR ceilings arrive imminently and persist into the early afternoon on Friday. Light to gentle southwest winds persist overnight into Friday morning. Low to moderate confidence that winds will turn more towards the west or west-northwest on Friday afternoon and evening, with moderate confidence in stratus returning to the terminal sometime Friday evening to Friday night, although confidence in timing is low to moderate. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR conditions persist through the overnight hours with some IFR ceilings possible at MRY. Light winds persist overnight before a moderate confidence forecast for more northwesterly flow develops Friday afternoon. Low confidence in a brief scattering out of the stratus clouds Friday afternoon a couple of hours in the afternoon before stratus returns early Friday evening. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 959 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 Gentle to moderate west-northwest winds persist into the weekend and early next week as seas continue to subside to moderate in response. A long period southerly swell of about 16 to 18 seconds approaches the coast Friday night into Sunday. Winds will build to a fresh northwest breeze early next week, causing seas to build up to 9 feet. Light drizzle is possible across the coastal waters. Haze and smoke may also impact visibility along the Big Sur coastline due to the Timber fire. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

709 FXUS66 KOTX 140723 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1223 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued thunderstorm chances focused over mountain areas through the weekend. - Temperatures warm back into the mid 80s to mid 90s by Sunday. - Drier air returns early to mid next week. && .SYNOPSIS... A somewhat active pattern persists across the Inland Northwest through the weekend and into early next week with continued mountain thunderstorm chances each afternoon and evening. Temperatures trend warmer through the weekend. A drier airmass moves in by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Friday through Sunday: The Inland NW will remain in a somewhat active pattern, with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances and temperatures a bit closer to seasonal norms. Highs will be in the upper 70s to 80s Friday, then will warm slightly toward the mid 80s through mid 90s this weekend. A baggy upper trough retrogrades west, but impulses and lingering moisture (with PWATs around 120-160% of normal) will work with daily daytime instability to bring continued precipitation chances. The focus for precipitation potential will be around the mountains most days. Friday the best potential will be in the Cascades and secondarily over the eastern mountains and near the far southeast CWA. A similar focus is forecast on Saturday, but overall the risk will be lower as that trough retrogrades off the coast. Even smaller chances will be found Sunday, found in spotty fashion around the Cascades and northern mountains and potentially a bit more coverage near the far southeast CWA, especially later in the day as a wave surges along the boundary stalled in that region. As for fire weather and lightning and wind threat, a modest chance for thunderstorms will be found near the Cascades again Friday afternoon and evening; elevated fire weather conditions are forecast but there is a better chance for thunderstorms to be wet which will limit the fire threat. Winds will generally be out of the north to northeast, with some diurnal terrain influences. A little breezy down the Purcell Trench and over the Columbia Basin Friday morning, with gusts of 15-20 mph possible before slackening Friday afternoon. Monday to Thursday: The offshore trough starts to push back into the region Monday into Tuesday, but models start to diverge with what to do with it later Tuesday into Thursday with some slower to progress it east and others shifting it through more rapidly. Yet either way models tend to start to bring some drier air into the region after Monday. Expect a broader shower threat on Monday, relatively speaking, meaning around the mountains and the eastern third of WA. However the overall best threat will be around the Idaho Panhandle. With that said, the potential for much precipitation to come out of these is low. A chance for t-storms will found Monday afternoon and evening too. For Tuesday to Thursday the main shower chances retreat to the mountains and look more isolated in coverage. Temperatures will be a more seasonal in the 80s to low 90s. Wind will be a bit breezy Monday and Tuesday, especially near the Cascade gaps and Columbia Basin. Right now winds are not expected to be strong enough to warrant much of a fire weather concern, as winds are generally less than 15 mph and gusts rise to near 15-20 mph. /Solveig && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: VFR to locally MVFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours with areas of smoke and haze. Winds will be out of the north to northeast, slightly breezy through north ID and out of the upper Columbia Basin into early Friday with limited impact to TAF sites. THe best potential for haze and smoke that may reduce conditions to MVFR will be near KEAT and other Cascade airports and possibly in KLWS due to a nearby wildfire. Additional showers and t-storms possible Friday afternoon, near the Cascades and southeast WA and the ID Panhandle mountains, largely away from TAF sites. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in smoke and haze continuing to impact the area terminals, but low confidence in extent of reduced vis/cigs. Low confidence in thunderstorms at KEAT this evening and again Friday and near KLWS Friday afternoon, but this is possible alternative scenario. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 82 54 87 55 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 82 53 86 56 88 58 / 10 0 0 10 0 0 Pullman 82 47 86 48 87 51 / 0 0 10 10 0 10 Lewiston 88 59 91 61 92 63 / 10 0 30 30 10 20 Colville 81 42 84 45 86 47 / 0 10 0 10 10 0 Sandpoint 76 46 82 48 85 50 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 79 51 83 54 85 55 / 30 0 0 10 10 0 Moses Lake 86 56 89 58 90 59 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 Wenatchee 84 64 87 65 90 66 / 40 10 10 0 0 0 Omak 85 57 88 60 90 60 / 10 10 10 10 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT today for Central Chelan County-Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area- Northeast Blue Mountains-Northeast Mountains-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT today for Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area. && $$

003 FXUS66 KPDT 140512 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1012 PM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Multiple Red Flag Warnings in effect for abundant lightning today through tomorrow - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers will develop over the Cascades and eastern mountains through Saturday, with gusty outflow winds possible - Smokey conditions will continue while temperatures will be near normal through the week && .DISCUSSION... Water vapor imagery shows upper level troughing over the PacNW this afternoon, with a shortwave offshore Vancouver Island poised to drop into the trough later tonight. Area radar and visible satellite imagery shows isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing across portions of central/northeast OR and the WA Cascade east slopes. This activity will continue through this evening across most areas as a shortwave impulse rides the southwest flow aloft. The shortwave will tap into increasing monsoonal moisture (PWATS ~0.75in) and increasing instability (MUCAPE 250-750J/kg and low level lapse rates 9-10C). Convection will continue overnight across the eastern mountains as instability lingers and the shortwave impulse continues to push northeast. Troughing will slowly push offshore through Saturday, all the while keeping south to southwest flow over the PacNW. Daily shortwave impulses will tap into the increased monsoonal moisture and surface instability, resulting in rounds of isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing over the Cascades and eastern mountains. For tomorrow, the best instability (300-600J/kg, low level lapse rates 9-10C) will be present over the WA Cascade east slopes and from the Elkhorn crest to Wallowa county. Expectation is that abundant lightning and gusty outflow winds will redevelop in these areas, producing a critical fire weather threat. By Saturday, the best activity will be focused over the Blue mountains, but an increase in moisture across the region will result in higher wetting rain potential with any developing showers and thunderstorms. Nonetheless, there is moderate confidence (60-70%) of elevated fire weather conditions developing owing to lightning potential outside of rain cores and gusty outflow winds. Sunday into the middle of next week, ensemble cluster solutions are still in disagreement on the evolution of the overall synoptic pattern. While there is good agreement (55-65% confidence) in a closed low developing well offshore the PacNW, ensemble clusters either favor the closed low strengthening and reminding offshore through Wednesday, or the low weakening with an open wave trough sliding across the PacNW into the middle of the week. Through Tuesday, either solution still places a mid to upper level southwest flow over the PacNW, which will result in continued chances (15-30%) of isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms over the mountains. Otherwise, the lack of strong system moving over the region will prevent smoke from clearing out, with smoke from area wildfires to continue to inundate portions of the forecast area into next week. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... VFR conditions with light winds (less than 15 knots sustained) with mostly elevated smoke. Might see some plumes make its way down to the surface in the early morning hours, but nothing to suggest any prolong sub-VFR conditions. There`s a 5 to 15 percent chance for any TAF site to experience temporary MVFR conditions until the smoke/haze lifts. Otherwise, the only chance for some precipitation is in BDN with a PROB30 of thunderstorms in the afternoon hours. Might see a small chance of showers near RDM, depending if coverage pushes through. Otherwise, a mostly dry TAF forecast for now. && .FIRE WEATHER... Increased surface moisture and instability across the region will bring isolated to scattered thunderstorm threat into the weekend. The abundant lightning threat today will be along the WA Cascade east slopes, central OR, and the eastern OR mountains. The threat will shift out of central OR tomorrow and Saturday, but remain in the other two areas. Gusty outflow winds will also be a concern from stronger storms that develop. Winds will be mostly light to locally breezy through the weekend. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 54 87 54 89 / 0 0 0 20 ALW 59 89 60 91 / 0 0 0 30 PSC 58 91 57 93 / 0 0 0 10 YKM 60 88 60 90 / 10 10 10 10 HRI 58 90 60 92 / 0 0 0 20 ELN 57 83 56 86 / 20 30 10 10 RDM 48 85 50 86 / 0 10 10 10 LGD 55 86 54 87 / 60 30 10 60 GCD 54 85 54 88 / 70 30 10 30 DLS 63 90 63 90 / 0 10 10 10 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until 3 PM PDT Friday for WAZ026>030-521>523. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM PDT Friday for WAZ695. OR...Air Quality Alert until 3 PM PDT Friday for ORZ041-049-050-502- 503-505-506-509>511. Red Flag Warning from 5 AM to 7 PM PDT Friday for ORZ694. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM PDT Friday for ORZ695-697-699. Red Flag Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for ORZ696-698. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...95 FIRE WEATHER...82

689 FXUS65 KREV 140908 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 208 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers and thunderstorms return this afternoon and evening, but with decreased coverage and strength compared to yesterday. * Drier conditions prevail this weekend into much of next week with temperatures just below mid-August averages. * Most days will see afternoon breezes near or below typical levels, with low risk for a stronger wind event into next week. && .DISCUSSION... After a couple of active thunderstorm days with some areas receiving heavy rainfall, flooding, hail and strong winds, we`ll be returning to a quieter weather pattern for the upcoming week. For today, residual moisture and instability, with a weaker upper level disturbance passing across CA-NV will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the eastern Sierra and parts of western NV. Compared to yesterday, the key ingredients for producing organized storm clusters are not as evident, resulting in more isolated coverage especially west of US-95. For west central NV near and east of US-95, storms may be a bit more organized with better instability (CAPE values 400-700 J/kg) and upper forcing from the disturbance arriving by late afternoon. This could lead to stronger cells producing isolated pockets of heavy rainfall, outflow wind gusts up to 45 mph, and small hail, with a few showers and storms lingering later into the evening. After this weather system departs, a drier pattern then sets up over eastern CA-western NV from this weekend through much of next week. While a gradual drop in daytime humidity and overnight recoveries are expected, they won`t reach the exceedingly dry levels which occurred during the recent heat event. Most days will see afternoon breezes near or below typical speeds with gusts 20-25 mph. Medium range guidance brings the potential for a slight upward bump in winds for a day or two next week, but at this time a significant wind event is not anticipated for the upcoming week. Temperatures remain on the cool side again today with highs mainly in the lower-mid 80s for lower elevations and 70s for Sierra communities. A slight warmup then occurs over the weekend and into next week with highs mainly in the upper 80s-lower 90s in the valleys and upper 70s-near 80 for Sierra sites. Some scenarios bring a bit more warming by mid-late next week with mid 90s within reach, but confidence is lower due to an increasing temperature spread among the ensemble guidance data. MJD && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected for all terminals through this weekend with typical afternoon wind gusts generally 20 kt or less. The only exception is a slight 15-25% chance for a passing shower or t-storm near KRNO/KCXP/KMEV mainly between 22Z-02Z. Impacts look to be more limited to spotty -RA, brief gusts to 25 kt, and maybe a few lightning strikes. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

593 FXUS66 KSTO 131810 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1110 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Shower and thunderstorm chances south of Interstate 80 today, with best chances south and east of our area. - Red Flag Warning in effect until 9 PM Today for a mix wet/dry thunderstorms and strong outflow winds for elevations above 5000 feet in the Sierra. - Notably cooler than normal temperatures for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Cumulus are beginning to develop along the Sierra Crest this morning, with thunderstorm activity possible this afternoon (10-20% chance on the western side of the crest, south of I-80). Thunderstorms that do develop are expected to move eastward, and the majority of activity is anticipated further south and east. Due to the potential for wet and dry thunderstorms with lightning and (of primary concern) gusty outflow winds, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9pm for the Sierra south of I-80 and above 5000 feet. In addition to thunderstorm chances, the current pattern brings well below normal high temperatures through the weekend. Valley temperatures are expected to be in the 80s today and tomorrow, increasing slightly over the weekend and warming again throughout next week. Thunderstorm chances diminish significantly tomorrow (less than 10% everywhere), and interior NorCal then settles into a calmer and drier pattern with near normal temperatures well into next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Breezy onshore flow will continue today, with surface winds below 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts this afternoon and evening as Delta Breeze increases. Valley winds lower after 04z Friday but will see continued 15-25 kt gusts over the Delta through 18z Friday. Mountain thunderstorm chances continue through around 03z Friday with lingering 10-15% chance on Friday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Sierra (Cal- Tuo) Above 5000 ft-Sierra (El Dorado-Amador) Above 5000 ft. && $$

586 FXUS65 KMSO 140825 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 225 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Rounds of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain, the potential for debris flows, and gusty winds (mainly western Montana) through today. - Temporary relief from smoke with easterly winds. - Gradual warming and drying trend this weekend, daily thunderstorm threat continues. Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms continued to redevelop and move over western Montana and north-central Idaho during the overnight hours into early this morning. Brief heavy rainfall and occasional lightning occurred with these storms. Lingering showers will continue to stream over western Montana through mid-morning. This afternoon, several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will impact the Northern Rockies and will likely bring isolated activity through the overnight once again. The main threat with these thunderstorms will be brief heavy rainfall. Yesterday afternoon, thunderstorms produced up to 0.40 inches per hour, which can be expected with the thunderstorms today. The strongest storms are expected between 3 PM and 9 PM, bringing a threat for debris flows and excessive runoff to flood-prone areas of northern Lemhi County and burn scars in the southern Bitterroot Valley. A Flash Flood Watch may be needed to highlight areas at most risk for impacts this afternoon and evening. Gusty and erratic winds between 30-40 mph will also be a threat, that could blow around unsecured objects and bring minor tree damage. A ridge of high pressure will rebuild over the Northern Rockies this weekend into early next week. Persistent southwest winds aloft will continue to bring moisture into the region, keeping atmospheric moisture high. This pattern will sustain daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms through next week, preventing a full return to dry conditions. Wildfire smoke will remain an ongoing challenge, with air quality expected to degrade slowly this weekend as southwest winds transport smoke plumes from source fires in eastern Washington and Oregon. && .AVIATION...Scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to stream over western Montana and north-central Idaho through 14/1500Z this morning. Shower and thunderstorm activity will redevelop this afternoon and evening, bringing a threat for frequent lightning, brief heavy rainfall, and gusty, erratic winds up to 35 kts to all aviation sites across the Northern Rockies. However, KMSO, KHRF, KBTM, and KSMN will have the highest chance for the strongest storms between 14/2000Z and 15/0200Z this evening. Persistent easterly winds have limited the impacts due to smoke from regional and local wildfires, but this is likely to change this weekend and early next week, when a southwest wind pattern returns to the Northern Rockies. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...&& $$

050 FXUS65 KBOI 140830 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 230 AM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fire weather risk continues due to thunderstorm activity today. - Thunderstorms with heavy rain may also increase the risk for flash flooding, especially for recent burn scars today and Saturday. - Temperatures near to slightly below normal through early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/... The combination of dynamic, southwest flow aloft and presence of monsoon moisture is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms early this morning. Storm activity is currently favoring far east Oregon and portions of southwest/west-central Idaho, with gusts up to 35 mph possible through morning. A brief lull in activity is expected late morning, before resurgent moisture and troughing allows the re-generation of storms across northeast Oregon and west-central/south-central Idaho late afternoon and evening. Latest guidance indicates localized storm outflow gusts to 40-45 mph are possible with stronger storms. Relatively high precipitable water values will also support heavy rain potential under storm cores. These thunderstorm hazards will create fire weather risks as well as flash flooding concerns across steep terrain and local burn scars. A brief window of drier, more stable air will help diminish storm activity Friday night, before the next shortwave trough arrives Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase once again Saturday afternoon, generally across southwest/central Idaho and northeast Oregon. Gusty outflows and bursts of heavy rainfall will continue to be the main storm threats. Temperatures both Friday and Saturday will remain slightly below normal due to cloud cover, precip, and the PNW trough influence. Shower activity will decrease Sunday as high pressure builds northwest into the forecast area throughout the day. Residual moisture and daytime instability will be enough to keep a slight chance of showers/thunderstorms over the higher terrain Sunday afternoon. Temperatures will rise a few degrees from Saturday. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... A shortwave trough is expected to arrive from the northwest on Monday, effectively squashing the upper ridge toward the southeast. Enhanced lift with continued moisture will increase shower and thunderstorm chances late Monday through Tuesday across the southwest/central Idaho terrain. Further cooling can be expected Tuesday as the trough makes its way east through the Northern Rockies. The resultant west-northwest flow aloft will then nudge the moisture out of the forecast area while also promoting slightly cooler than normal temperatures late Tuesday through Wednesday. Thereafter, latest model runs are depicting the return of the upper level ridge across the West by late in the week, which would promote warming and potentially re-open the door for the next round of moisture. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 1204 AM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue this morning, especially from the Treasure Valley up to KBKE/KMYL. Outflow gusts up to around 30 kt near thunderstorms. Then, thunderstorm coverage will increase in the afternoon with potential outflows to 30-40 kt, mainly around KBKE/KMYL and the KTWF/KJER area. Localized MVFR and mtn obscuration with rain shafts. Surface winds: variable 5-15 kt, with erratic gusts near storms. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR with reduction in visibility/foothill obscuration due to wildfire smoke. A 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms through mid-morning. Surface winds: SE 8-15 kt with periods of gusts to 20-25 kt. Transitioning to NW in the late afternoon. Weekend Outlook...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing Saturday. Storms Saturday capable of heavy rain, strong gusty outflows, and MVFR conditions. Showers taper off come Sunday. Surface winds: SW-SE 5-15 kt Saturday, then SW-NW 5-10 kt Sunday. Light and variable during overnights. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning until 6 AM MDT early this morning for IDZ400>403-420-421. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ423-424- 426. Flash Flood Watch from noon MDT today through Saturday evening for IDZ013. OR...Red Flag Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for ORZ670>672. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT /7 PM PDT/ this evening for ORZ673>675. Air Quality Alert until 1 PM MDT /noon PDT/ this afternoon for ORZ061-063-064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...SH LONG TERM....SH AVIATION.....SH

421 FXUS65 KLKN 140720 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1220 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Monsoon weather pattern for Central and Eastern Nevada expected to persist through tomorrow * Quieter, cooler weather in store for the weekend * Storm chances return to northern NV early next week && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Friday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Storms are dying down overnight but will return Friday, although much weaker and more spread out. Excessive rainfall remains a marginal threat, along with localized flash flooding. The upper level trough that has been driving these storms lifts out of Nevada for the weekend with southwest flow taking its place. This is expected to mostly cut off the moisture flow and result in a dry weekend. Models still cant agree on the forecast for next week, with the sticking point being the path of an upper level low pressure center. The further south solution would see it clip northern Nevada and would be a much cooler and potentially wetter solution than the one keeping it near the Canadian border, however it is not clear which solution is more likely at this time. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in showers and thunderstorms through Friday. Moderate confidence in a dry weekend. Low confidence in the forecast for thunderstorms to start next week. No changes from the NBM. && .AVIATION... Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours but short duration visibilities as low as 2SM have been reported with heavy rainfall and continue to pose a threat at all sites. Strong erratic winds are also expected with thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... No significant changes from the previous forecast. Wind driven elevated conditions are still anticipated for portions of zone 437 while all other zones are focused on heavy rainfall and associated runoff and debris flow potential. Widespread rainfall continues Friday, though coverage is more confined to the eastern half of the state, before mostly drying out for Saturday. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...94 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...94