578 FXUS66 KSEW 040316 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 816 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .UPDATE...Mostly clear skies across Western Washington this evening, with the latest satellite imagery showing clouds moving from Oregon towards the region. Otherwise, no significant updates to the forecast this evening. Please refer to an updated aviation and marine section. && .SYNOPSIS...Seasonably warm weather for the 4th of July holiday is expected with a weak trough pushing through the area late this week. A warming trend is expected by early next week as a ridge of high pressure build across the western states. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...A trough moving through southern Canada will slide east overnight but additional troughing will approach the region from the west as well. This will provide continued tranquil weather overnight and low temperatures on the cool side, from the mid 40s to 50s. As the trough pushes east Friday, it looks to generate thunderstorm activity but this is expected to remain east of the forecast area. This will provide more cloudiness in the afternoon and evening, but temperatures will warm above todays readings and be near normal in the middle to upper 70s for highs. The trough exits Friday overnight, allowing a somewhat zonal flow over the area with a series of weak systems nearby. This will allow for near normal conditions with lows in the 40s/50s and highs in the 70s and no significant weather or impacts expected. A slight warming trend will shape up later on Sunday as heights begin to rise and a few more lower 80s for highs are expected especially south. .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...The first portion of the coming week should feature a warming trend. Heights will climb alongside a strengthening mid level ridge of high pressure over the four corners region. This will bring highs back above normal on Monday and Tuesday, with lower and mid 80s more common across the region. With warming overnight lows closer to 60 degrees by Tuesday morning, the overall heat impact levels will begin to inch up somewhat. This will bear monitoring in the extended time period by Tuesday. Some increasing uncertainty by mid week. The corners ridge becomes quite strong, however a series of troughs over the north Pacific may do their best to hold mid level ridging at bay to our south. The current forecast indicates highs remaining in the low to mid 80s for the mid-latter part of next week. One constant through the next several days is that it looks to remain dry across the forecast area. Storms are expected to be too far east and then with ridging building in there are no rain chances to speak of. && .AVIATION...VFR this evening with convective debris clouds moving north from Oregon. No thunderstorm activity is expected in western Washington. Clouds will continue to scatter into tonight with generally N/NW surface winds. MVFR stratus deck will reform along the coast into the early morning Friday and expand inland, likely staying to the west of the Puget Sound. KSEA...VFR with northerly surface winds between 8 and 10 kts. VFR is favored to continue through the TAF period, with low potential (15% to 20%) of MVFR ceilings in low stratus drifting east early Friday morning. NW to NE winds 10 kt or less will continue through much of the period before shifting SW later Friday afternoon. 15/21 && .MARINE...High pressure will remain in place across the coastal and offshore waters today, allowing for evening westerly pushes through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. The Central and Eastern Strait will see west winds just below SCA criteria this evening. A front will cross area waters on Friday, generating another round of strong winds through the Strait. A Gale Watch has been issued for Friday evening through Saturday morning, but some uncertainty exists over how strong the winds will be. A weak front will dissipate over the offshore waters Saturday, with a series of weak fronts crossing area waters next week. Seas will remain between 4 to 7 feet through the period. 15/21 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Gale Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$

860 FXUS66 KPQR 032131 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 231 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Onshore flow continues as a series of short wave, upper level troughs move over the area tonight through Friday. This will increase mixing and bring some moist air into the region. As a result of this pattern there is a slight chance (15-20%) of rain showers late tonight through Friday afternoon along the Cascades. Could see isolated thunderstorms over the ridges through the same time period. Warming and drying trends return for the weekend and persist through at least the middle of the upcoming week. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday Night...Onshore flow remains in place as a series of upper level, shortwave troughs moves through the region over the next 24 hours. This will bring about seasonal temperatures in the 60s for the coast, upper 70s to low 80s for inland locations and upper 60s to low 70s for the Cascades. In addition to the moderate temperatures, an influx of moist air will also be introduced into the region. This elevated moisture will result in an uptick in general instability as mixing increase. CAM soundings show somewhat favorable south/southwest flow as well as CAPE values around 600-1000 J/kg. While CIN values are between 20-60 J/kg, there are enough signals within the models, as well as via pattern recognition to warrant a slight chance (15%-20% probability) of thunderstorms for the Lane and Linn County Cascades starting tonight through Friday afternoon. Otherwise, Friday looks to be very similar to today for the majority of our CWA. The only differences look to be that daytime highs will be a few degrees cooler and more widespread, marine stratus across the region. Also, expect elevated, westerly winds through the Columbia River Gorge through Friday night. /42 .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday... For the start of the weekend, warmer and drier conditions return. The upper level pattern starts to shift into a Rex like, blocking pattern. The cut-off low of this rex-like pattern looks to hover just off the northern coast of California and a more zonal-ish flow pattern for OR and WA. With this pattern over the Pacific, a surface low over the Great Basin will enable warm and dry air to re-enter the region. As a result, longer range models have 850 mb temperatures warming towards 18C to 20C, which will bring daytime highs into the upper 80s to low 90s for the weekend and continue to warm through Wednesday. At this time, the warmest days looks to be Monday and Tuesday. As Wednesday approaches, the aforementioned low looks to be pulled northward. This will bring about a slight cooling trend for the middle of the week. /42 && .AVIATION...Marine stratus has cleared, and skies are generally clear with VFR conditions in place for all terminals. Diurnal winds as of 21z Thu have also picked up slightly, with gusts up to 15-18 kts from the northwest at all terminals. Gusts up to 20-25 kts will be possible at coastal terminals only while winds are elevated. Around 6z Fri, winds begin to come down and drop below 6 kts for all terminals. Another chance of marine stratus developing for all coastal terminals and the northern Willamette Valley terminals (KPDX, KHIO, KTTD, KUAO) around 15z Fri. 20-30% chance of MVFR cigs at that time, lasting through Friday morning. PDX AND APPROACHES...Generally VFR conditions through the period, though a 25-30% chance of MVFR marine stratus developing again tonight around 15z Thu. Northwesterly wind gusts up to 15-18 kts possible, dropping below 6 kts again over Thursday night. /JLiu && .MARINE...Persistent surface high pressure offshore will result in continued northerly to northwesterly winds across the waters. Diurnal gusts will reach 10-15 kt north of Cape Falcon and 15-20 kt from Cape Falcon to Florence each afternoon, easing to around 10 kt overnight. A locally tightened pressure gradient across the inner waters south of Cape Falcon may see occasional gusts above 20 kt the rest of this afternoon, but majority of gusts remain well below SCA criteria. Seas will continue at 3-6 ft through the weekend, before strengthening surface high pressure sees winds and seas build Sunday into next week. -Picard/JLiu && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

099 FXUS66 KMFR 032328 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 428 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .UPDATE...Aviation discussion updated. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 237 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025/ DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday night...Another shortwave trough is approaching the region this afternoon. This will pass through the region overnight tonight into Friday while merging with an upstream shortwave, resulting in a broad low pressure over the Pacific Northwest for the Fourth of July holiday. Overall, this will bring near to slightly below normal temperatures today through Saturday. On the other hand, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will persist over the region through Friday evening. Much like recent days, the focus for thunderstorm activity today will mostly be across eastern Klamath, Lake and Modoc counties, though isolated thunderstorms are possible farther westward into western Siskiyou County and the Cascade Foothills of Jackson/Douglas Counties. Heading into the overnight hours, the incoming trough takes on a negative tilt as it moves overhead, and this combined with sufficient moisture and instability will lead to showers and thunderstorms continuing tonight into early Friday morning. The focus for activity looks to be along the Cascades north of Lake of the Woods and areas eastward into Klamath County generally north Klamath Falls towards Chemult/Fort Rock area. While moisture and instability are more limited for areas west of the Cascades, there are some members of the high resolution suite of models that show some activity firing up across portions of eastern Jackson/Douglas Counties before quickly shunting off to the north and east. As such, we`ve included a slight chance (10-20%) mention of thunderstorms for areas generally east of Grants Pass/Shady Cove/Steamboat. Shower/thunderstorm activity continues into the early morning hours of Friday across northern portions of Klamath and Lake Counties before activity wanes around 9-10am or so. Though activity will wane, the break will be short-lived with another round of showers/thunderstorms developing Friday afternoon across northern portions of Klamath and Lake Counties. Aside from the thunderstorm threat on Friday, the Fourth of July holiday should be a rather pleasant one across the region with temperatures being the coolest of the forecast period. In fact, afternoon highs on this July 4th will hover around 5 to 10 degrees below normal, with up to 15 degrees below normal in some places. There will be some lingering cloud cover around west of the Cascades, but overall, mostly to partly sunny skies are expected. We`ll finally get a break in this persistent thunderstorm pattern on Saturday as a brief period of ridging develops and afternoon highs trend warmer by about 5 to 10 degrees. This break will be short-lived, however, as another low pressure develops off the coast of California and lingers there into next week before finally moving off to the northeast around mid-week. The position of this trough looks farther north than the one from earlier this week, and this will have implications on where the best moisture/instability line up. Current guidance maintains a dry forecast through this time period, but pattern recognitions would say that there will be at least slight chance of thunderstorms at some point between Sunday-Wednesday. An isolated thunderstorm or two could develop as early as Sunday across western Siskiyou, but moisture looks too marginal for any significant activity, and cumulus buildups are the more likely scenario. Heading into early next week, however, moisture increases and storms look more plausible for Monday afternoon. By Tuesday, the best moisture/instability/dynamics look to be farther north of the area. As the trough passes overhead on Wednesday, this would be another opportunity for increased thunderstorm activity in the area. Stay tuned as details on location and timing of this trough become more clear over the coming days. In the meantime, guidance shows the return of hot temperatures as strong high pressure over the Desert Southwest retrogrades westward and exerts more influence over the region. /BR-y && AVIATION...04/00Z TAFs...VFR is expected in all areas through this evening, except where thunderstorms may produce periods of IFR/MVFR ceilings and visibilities. MVFR?IFR conditions will also return to the coast and coastal valleys this evening and tonight, and potentially will spill into the Umpqua Basin by morning. These areas should clear to VFR by tomorrow afternoon. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected in the area through this evening and tonight. Aside from reduced flight conditions in heavy rain, gusty winds and hail are also possible. -BPN && MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Thursday, July 3, 2025...Gusty north winds and steep seas will continue for waters south of Cape Blanco late tonight. Conditions will improve with relatively light winds and seas expected Friday into early Saturday. The thermal trough pattern returns late Saturday, bringing the return of gusty north winds and steep seas. This will likely result in conditions hazardous to small craft returning by Saturday afternoon and persisting into early next week. /BR-y && FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, July 3, 2025... Thunderstorms continue to be the main concern. There will be another round of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, focusing on FWZ 625 into eastern FWZ 624. This is where the Red Flag Warning is in effect through 11 PM tonight. These storms will be moving north through the evening. Some storms could be dry. Keep in mind, lightning strikes outside of the precipitation cores are possible. Due to the prolonged period of dry and warm to hot weather, lightning efficiency will be high to very high for fire starts. We also have to be mindful of gusty and erratic outflow winds near and away from the core of thunderstorms. Many models are still supporting convection continuing tonight into Friday morning. Any overnight storms are much more likely to be high- based, and would then have much more likelihood of being dry. While most guidance, and the typical pattern, shows showers and thunderstorms during this time still concentrating on Klamath and Lake counties (and a bit into Modoc), one or two models have a band of convection running up the Cascades from Mount Shasta to Bend late this evening into tonight. This is the outlying solution, thus unlikely, but something to consider. A Red Flag Warning will be in effect from 11 PM tonight through 7 AM tomorrow for the risk of abundant lightning on dry fuels. This area includes northeastern 623 north of Highway 140, 624 north of Highway 140, and far northern 625 north of Summer Lake. An area of low pressure will bring another chance of thunderstorms Friday afternoon with the main concerns in Klamath and Lake counties. However, a Red Flag Warning will be in effect tomorrow afternoon for the northern half of FWZ 625 as this is the area that the thunderstorms will focus on which will bring a risk for abundant lightning on the dry fuels. Fortunately, it does appear that the trough will exit by Saturday, and it appears that this will be the first day with no thunderstorm chances anywhere within the forecast area. This break in the action may be short-lived, however, as another upper level trough arrives late in the weekend, and convective chances may once again return Sunday into Monday. The deep southerly moisture flow should have ended by that time, so with the lack in moisture, convection may not be as widespread or as active, if it occurs at all. Otherwise, the forecast will be for continued near to slightly above normal temperatures, seasonal humidities, and the typical diurnal wind patterns, although general east flow late this weekend into early next week could lead to drying, especially across the ridgelines, where poor to moderate recoveries are possible. - BPN/Hermansen && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Friday for ORZ623>625. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. && $$

760 FXUS66 KEKA 032128 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 228 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Cooler interior temperatures and a deeper marine layer are expected through Friday. Temperatures will generally trend warmer this weekend and into early next week. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms over NE Trinity County this evening. && .DISCUSSION... Satellite imagery and web cameras showed variable high level clouds moving across the area today. Along the coast stratus has been less extensive and appeared more disrupted along the North Coast. In contrast, south of Cape Mendocino, stratus was actually expanding along the Mendocino coast. Stratus should rebuild and push deeper into the river valleys tonight as a short wave trough progresses across the area. A stronger and higher marine inversion will likely keep cool and humid marine air trapped against the coastal terrain through Friday, especially around Humboldt Bay and Eel delta. Interior temperatures cooled considerably today in response to stronger onshore winds. Temps are forecast to remain below seasonal averages on Friday; in the 80`s to lower 90`s that is. Waters vapor imagery showed a cyclonic circulation center just offshore at the base of a 500mb trough steadily moving eastward toward the North Coast this afternoon. Model based soundings continue to depict steep mid level lapse rates with sufficient CAPE and instability for storms across NE Trinty County this evening. Some of the convective allowing models even hint at storms firing up with 500mb vort passage around or shortly after midnight. HREF thunder probabilities are just north of the area in Siskiyou County, however. We cannot completely rule out a stray lightning strike, especially with shallow moist convection developing over NE Trinity this afternoon with daytime heating. Confidence is by no means high there will be any strikes with only a few HREF composite cores over 40dBz skirting along the border with Siskiyou and Shasta Counties. Another short wave trough will approach over the weekend and eventually develop into a semi-closed 500mb circulation or cut-off low either offshore to our SW or closer to the northern California coast by late Sunday into Monday. Deterministic model guidance has robust SE or E flow at 500mb (40-50kt of bulk shear) by Sunday night into Monday. This pattern (close low offshore) and 500mb SE wind direction is conducive for thunderstorms in our forecast area this time of year. Moisture appears quite sparse. Convective parameters and model derived soundings are not very supportive for any storms. Mid level lapse rates are forecast to become steep, however. With below normal PWATS across our more convectively active areas in the interior, see no compelling reason to deviate from the NBM guidance and add thunderstorms to the forecast at this time. This will need to be watched. Once within range of the CAMS, we should have a better handle on this potentially high impact but low probability event. Interior temperatures are forecast to warm up next week as the trough ejects N-NE in response to an upstream kicker. By mid to late next week the four corners ridge will expand westward and northwestward. There is still uncertainty with the rate and magnitude of the warming with upstream troughs possibly keeping the hottest air to our south. Multiple ensemble systems continue to consistently show high probabilities (>80% chance) for 500mb heights 588DM or more with lower probabilities (30-50% chance) for 594DM or more. 100+ degree heat for our typical hot valleys in the interior is highly probable. There is greater uncertainty for coastal valleys of western Humboldt (Eel river valley) and Mendocino (Anderson valley). Late next week will likely be the hottest days so far this summer. && .AVIATION... A deep marine layer continues to compress into the north coast this afternoon with IFR ceilings at the coastal terminals. Greatest chance for brief MVFR scattering in CEC late this afternoon as northerly winds increase offshore and scour out the cloud cover. Gusts exceeding 10 to 15 knots possible at both coastal terminals prior to 00Z. UKI already experiencing 15 to 20 knot gusts, with gusts up to 30 knots possible late in the afternoon. HREF shows >80% probability for <1K ft ceilings redeveloping at CEC and ACV after 03Z. A weak shortwave will provide additional instability overnight and potential for coastal drizzle and LIFR viz/ceilings after 09Z Friday morning. && .MARINE... Northerly winds will continue in the outer waters with gale force gusts south of Cape Mendocino beginning to wind down late this evening. Winds and steep waves will decrease first in the northern waters, extending into the southern waters through Friday. Moderate to fresh breezes will continue in the outer waters through Friday as a long period southwesterly swell fills into the waters, with locally stronger gusts nearshore and downwind of the Cape. Northerlies expected to strengthen again late Saturday into early next week as high pressure builds back into the region. NBM and global ensembles increasing confidence (50 to 70% chance) in potential for gale gusts in the outer waters Sunday through Monday, especially in the northern waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated lightning strikes will be possible (15% chance) over NE Trinity (zone 283) this evening as a dry trough progresses across the area. Lightning chances decrease to 10% or less after midnight. Greatest lightning activity is expected in NE California and southern Oregon. Otherwise, gusty diurnally driven winds are forecast to continue through Friday. The lowest RH`s are once again forecast for lower elevations of eastern Trinity and southern Lake County, around 20-25%. Gusts up 25 mph are expected for the Weaverville basin and southern Lake County. Any new fire starts or hold over fires from lightning starts could spread rapidly before winds dies down overnight. High temperatures are forecast to warm over the weekend into early next week while minimum RH`s become drier. Overnight recoveries are generally expected to remain good except for a few exposed ridges where low RH`s may persist through the night. Another trough will approach over the weekend and poses a low risk for convection. Strong southeast flow aloft should develop Sunday into Monday, however the air will be dry at mid levels. Steep mid level lapse rates do increase on Sunday and Monday, however deep column water vapor content is forecast to remain below normal. The cut-off low is forecast to finally eject N-NE by mid next week as a massive ridge over the four corners region expands over the area. Much hotter temperatures and drier humidity are highly probable (80% chance) in the interior mid to late next week. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ470. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

416 FXUS66 KMTR 040122 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 622 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 135 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 - Elevated fire weather concerns persist through Friday for the East Bay and Santa Cruz Mountains. - Northwest winds of 30 to 55 mph through Friday across gaps, passes, and some valleys. - Near normal temperatures with slightly below normal through the weekend with a gradual warming trend next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 135 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 (This evening through Friday) The forecast is on track early this afternoon with onshore flow continuing this afternoon. The SFO-SAC MSLP "gradient" continues to increase as diabatic heating induces surface pressure falls across the Central Valley. In addition, larger scale synoptic scale forcing in the form of an upper trough continues to encourage onshore flow. In response, areas across the East Bay, the San Bruno Gap and Salinas Valley are experiencing wind gusts averaging between 25 mph and 45 mph. Short term hi-res guidance such as the 2km PG&E WRF along with our in house WRF indicate that gusts as great as 55 mph are still within the realm possibility this afternoon. We`ll continue to advertise an elevated to near- critical fire weather threat across the area this afternoon as a few sites have seen RH fall down to near or below 15%. The isolated nature of these "dry" sites precludes a Red Flag Warning, however, we`ll continue to advertise/promote fire safety via partner discussions as well as via our web page and social media. Winds will continue through the evening hours and the airmass across some of the elevated regions of the East Bay will likely not decouple. This will translate to winds remaining elevated. The 12Z OAK RAOB showed the moist layer beneath the inversion (the marine layer) was around 1200 ft AGL. Forecast cross-sections show the marine layer compressing further to around 1000 ft AGL in the wake of the aforementioned upper trough (slight shortwave ridging). This will translate to overnight RH recovery below 50% for the higher terrain across parts of the Santa Cruz Mountains, the Diablo and Santa Lucia Ranges. With the loss of the upper trough, onshore flow and an approaching diffuse frontal boundary (albeit weakening) may loosen up the surface gradient some on Friday. In fact the PG&E WRF, the MTRWRF and higher-end NBM probabilities indicate reduced flow as a whole during the afternoon hours. While the lack of upper support may take the edge off of the wind, the Central Valley will still warm up quickly. This should continue to drive an MSLP difference and thus diurnal onshore breezes. There will remain an enhancement of the wind field across gaps, passes, and valleys with gusts still as great as 45 to 50 mph. Afternoon RH will still dip down between 15 and 25 percent, and that`ll necessitate another round of an elevated to near critical fire weather threat. This will be particularly true, given the potential for additional ignitions given the holiday weekend. Please be mindful of your outdoor activities and obey any local burn/fire restrictions. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 135 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 (Friday night through next Wednesday) Not to sound like a broken record, but please be mindful of your outdoor activities and obey any local burn/fire restrictions on Friday evening given the dry grasses and brush. With winds offshore abating some, we`ll likely see upwelling of colder Pacific Ocean waters setting the stage for the development of a thick deck of marine layer stratus. The diurnal pressure gradient should support advection of the marine stratus into the coastal regions this weekend. The marine layer is forecast to thicken some up to around 1500 ft this weekend which fits our climatological pattern ("No Sky July"), particularly along the coast. The Extreme Forecast Index (from the EFI) suggests that the EPS mean forecast is cooler than the model climate along the coast and this increases confidence in a marine layer intrusion. NBM temperatures seem reasonable, but we may need to make some alterations to MaxTs on Saturday and Sunday. Next week will be characterize by a gradual warming trend. The global guidance indicates that the progression of the ridge will be impeded by a developing cutoff upper trough that spawning from the zonal flow across the Pacific Northwest. Both the 12Z GFS/ECMWF advertise this feature in addition to the 00Z Cluster Analysis through at least the middle of next week. This translates to predominantly onshore flow until the SW US ridge attempts to build. When/how that happens yields a high degree of forecast uncertainty. EFI also seemed a bit underwhelming (and quite negative) for MaxT/MinT through next week, though this is likely biased by the cooler conditions along the coast. Examining the 850mb temperatures with respect to the SPC Sounding Climatology at Oakland and Vandenberg and forecast mean values would place them roughly around the 75th percentile for both areas. The 850mb temperature forecast exhibited a high degree of spread (especially in the GFS ensemble), so there`s still an opportunity for things to be warmer or colder than forecast. What does appear most certain is that the warmest locations (perhaps with isolated pockets of `Moderate` HeatRisk) across the Bay Area and Central Coast Wednesday onward will be across the southern Salinas Valley, as well as across interior sections of the North Bay, East Bay, and South Bay. Stay tuned for details. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 555 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 IFR and MVFR CIGS remain along the cost with pockets of mist and drizzle and are affecting HAF as well as the Monterey Bay terminals. The breezy to gusty winds reduce across the region into the late evening and CIGs look to fall further into the night. Moments of low clouds also look to affect OAK into Friday morning. There is the potential for mist and fog in the North Bay into the early morning. Inland clearing begins in the mid morning with most TAF sites going VFR before the the late morning. The exception will be HAF, which keeps CIGs through the TAF period. Winds look to stay light to moderate through the morning and increase into Friday afternoon, with gusty winds expected around the SF Bay. Expect winds to reduce into Friday evening, but remain breezy around the SF Bay. CIGs begin to move inland from the coast into the late evening, affecting the Monterey Bay terminals. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period. Breezy to gusty winds reduce into early night, but remain breezy until the late night. Breezy west winds return into the late morning on Friday with stronger winds and around 30 kt gusts expected in the mid afternoon and through much of the evening. These winds reduce in the late evening but look to stay breezy through that night. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR CIGs turn to IFR CIGs, while IFR CIGs look to turn to LIFR later into the night with some pockets of mist and drizzle in the area. Winds become moderate into mid Friday morning CIGs erode over the terminals, but expect cloud cover to linger over the Monterey Bay itself. Cloud cover beings to push inland as winds reduce into Thursday evening with IFR CIGs filling over the terminals. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 555 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Fresh to strong northwesterly breezes and rough seas will continue into Friday. Gale force gusts will be likely across northern waters and near Pt. Sur through Thursday night. Winds easing by early next week. A low-amplitude long period southerly swell will persist through Friday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 135 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 An elevated to near critical fire weather threat will persist this afternoon and again on Friday. Grasses and finer fuels remain cured and available, and given the potential for new ignitions due to the holiday weekend, an increase in initial attack type activity should be expected by local fire personnel. Less favorable burn conditions are anticipated this weekend as the marine layer deepens and invades parts of the area. However, far interior portions of the Bay Area and Central Coast, as well as regions above 1500-2000 feet may still remain within an airmass characterized by near-critical humidity and winds where there may remain some potential for fire spread/growth. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bain LONG TERM....Bain AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

293 FXUS66 KOTX 032333 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 433 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy winds, and a chance of showers on Independence Day. - Thunderstorm chances in far southeastern Washington, southern and central Idaho Panhandle, and the North Cascades on Independence Day. - Hot temperatures arrive Monday, possibly persisting through the remainder of next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Independence Day will bring breezy winds and a chance of showers across the region. Thunderstorm potential also exists on for far southeastern Washington, the central and southern Idaho Panhandle, and the North Cascades. Hot temperatures arrive on Monday and may persist through the remainder of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Friday Night: Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a couple features of interest. The first is a large low pressure system moving into Alberta providing a cooler, westerly flow over the region today. The second and more important feature in terms of Independence Day weather is a smaller low approaching the southern Oregon and northern California coast this afternoon. Models are in good agreement of increasing showers and thunderstorms developing south of our area across Central and Eastern Oregon tonight. Friday morning some of this moisture begins to lift north towards SE Washington and the Lewiston area and Camas Prairie for a 20-30% chance of showers. As the low continues to push east the chances for showers in these areas increase to 60% in the afternoon, while a 20% chance pushes north into the Columbia Basin and Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area, and over the ridges in the northern mountains. Heading into Friday evening, as moisture continues to push north and there being a broad area of weak mid level instability all areas will be under a threat of showers, but ensembles currently depict coverage of rain reaching the surface to be isolated in nature (20% coverage) over most of the region, with the best chances over SE Washington, the ID Panhandle, and over the northern mountains (30-40%). Yet despite the somewhat low POP`s, the increased lift with the incoming low and some weak mid level instability to work with could yield localized areas with moderate rain showers, putting a damper on outdoor festivities. Regarding thunderstorms, the limited instability over Washington and North Idaho continues to look unfavorable for thunderstorms with a couple exceptions. One being SE Washington into the Central Panhandle Mountains (including the LC Valley) Friday afternoon and evening with 850-500mb MU CAPE of 200-400 J/KG potentially yielding a few storms. The second is over the North Cascades during the late afternoon and evening where some of the CAM`s models continue to show isolated storms forming over the mountains around and to the north of Lake Chelan. Cloud cover will yield a day of below normal temperatures for the Palouse and Lewiston area for Independence Day with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. Elsewhere highs will be in the 80s. Differential heating between the warmer northern valleys and cooler portions of northern OR/southern WA had the potential to produce a period of breezy south winds Friday afternoon into the early evening. Brief gusts in the 20-30 MPH range are possible from the Columbia Basin, Palouse, LC Valley, and Spokane area Friday afternoon, and then across the northern valleys Friday evening. High res models also show breezy Cascade gaps winds Friday evening with gusts up to 30 MPH around Wenatchee, Chelan, and Vantage. JW Saturday: A passing shortwave will bring unsettled weather to the region on Saturday. As this system moves through, it will interact with lingering moisture and modest instability to trigger scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon over the higher terrain in northeast WA and the ID Panhandle. Any storms that do form could be capable of brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds and lightning. While the overall coverage is expected to remain limited, conditions will be monitored closely due to the holiday weekend. Sunday through Wednesday: Following the exit of Saturday`s system, a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to build into the region. This will mark the beginning of another warming trend, with dry, unstable conditions returning. Each day will increase in temperatures, with Tuesday and Wednesday being the warmest days. Ensembles are indicating that yet again we could see warmer temperatures than the last heat wave. Temperatures in the high 90s to 105 are expected as of this forecast, with the hottest temperatures being down in the LC Valley and Columbia Basin. This could bring the potential for widespread impacts from heat stress to increased fire danger. Winds will begin to increase Wednesday afternoon as another system begins to push in offshore. Overnight temperatures will be warm was well, with most areas remaining in the upper 50s to around 70. Keep an eye on the forecast as we get closer. /KK && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. Clouds will start to thicken heading into Friday from the south as low pressure moves inland. Shower chances develop after 18Z, with the best risk over southeast WA and lower ID. Chances were includes near LWS and PUW. Smaller chances will be found at other TAF sites. A slight risk for t-storms will be found south of LWS Friday afternoon. Winds will be breezy early this evening, with gusts of 15-20 kts. Similar winds gusts are expected Friday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in conditions remaining VFR. Low to moderate confidence in showers near LWS/PUW and low confidence in showers near GEG/SFF/COE/PUW after 18-21Z Friday. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 55 82 58 82 55 88 / 0 20 20 10 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 56 82 56 79 56 86 / 0 20 30 10 0 0 Pullman 51 73 51 79 50 85 / 0 40 30 0 0 0 Lewiston 62 80 61 86 61 94 / 0 60 30 0 0 0 Colville 46 84 56 82 48 86 / 0 10 30 10 0 0 Sandpoint 51 81 55 77 51 83 / 0 10 50 20 0 0 Kellogg 58 77 54 75 57 83 / 0 30 40 20 0 0 Moses Lake 55 84 58 87 55 91 / 0 20 20 0 0 0 Wenatchee 60 86 62 88 61 91 / 0 10 20 0 0 0 Omak 56 88 59 87 57 91 / 0 10 20 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

953 FXUS66 KPDT 032334 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 434 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .AVIATION...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions are forecast through the period. Overnight into early Friday, showers are forecasted to produce across central and eastern Oregon with some potential (30% chance) for thunderstorms and sub-MVFR conditions for RDM/BDN. Low (30%) chances of showers for ALW/PDT at 15Z-18Z. Winds will be gusty at 20-30kts this evening for most sites, but may return to 12kts or less tonight. However, KDLS could have gusts again tomorrow afternoon whereas KALW/KPSC may have them tomorrow morning. KYKM will have light winds through this TAF period. Feaster/97 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 206 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025/ .SHORT TERM...This evening through Saturday. Two distinct circulations are evident on satellite imagery this afternoon; the first is located off the southwest Oregon and northwest California coast, and the second is upstream in the northeast Pacific. These two lows are expected (>95% chance) to move onshore tonight through Friday night and facilitate widespread chances of precipitation. While the best chances (50-75%) of showers will remain over central Oregon and the Blue Mountains, low (15-40%) chances will encompass the rest of the forecast area. A chance (25+%) of thunderstorms is forecast over central Oregon and the Blue Mountains tonight through Friday evening, with the most robust convection anticipated Friday afternoon along the southern part of our forecast area in Deschutes, Crook, and Grant counties. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing small hail, locally heavy downpours, and strong outflow winds in excess of 50 mph. Drier conditions are forecast by Saturday as the low exits to the east and a drier zonal flow moves overhead. Plunkett/86 .LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday...Confidence is increasing in warm to hot weather Monday through Wednesday as an upper-level ridge of high pressure builds over the Pacific Northwest. While ensemble clusters depict small differences in the 500-hPa height field over the region, roughly 80% of members show a robust ridge overhead. Forecast HeatRisk peaks at Moderate (level 2 of 4) to Major (level 3 of 4) for the lower elevations, and would support some form of heat highlights. Ensemble NWP is less confident in pattern details Tuesday through Thursday. While most members show a vorticity maximum diving southeast from the Gulf of Alaska and developing into a closed low off the northern California coast Sunday through Monday, its track as it rides over the ridge and moves onshore sometime between Tuesday and Wednesday will modulate shower and thunderstorms chances. Probabilities of showers and thunderstorms are currently too low (<10%) to have in the forecast. Plunkett/86 .FIRE WEATHER...Locally breezy westerly winds in tandem with low relative humidity in the Eastern Columbia Gorge, Kittitas Valley, and portions of the Columbia Basin today are producing some locally elevated fire weather concerns; while conditions may locally meet Red Flag criteria, conditions are not expected to be widespread enough to warrant any Red Flag Warnings. Tonight through Friday, a weather system will usher in widespread precipitation chances; a chance of thunderstorms is forecast for central Oregon and the Blue Mountains. Thunderstorms will be mostly dry this afternoon and evening, but are expected to be mostly wet tonight and Friday so no Red Flag Warnings have been issued. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong, gusty outflow in excess of 50 mph across southeast Deschutes, Crook, and Grant counties. Plunkett/86 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 58 77 57 87 / 0 30 20 0 ALW 61 77 61 85 / 0 30 20 0 PSC 58 82 59 89 / 0 20 20 0 YKM 57 83 57 88 / 0 20 0 0 HRI 59 80 59 89 / 0 20 20 0 ELN 56 83 56 86 / 0 10 0 0 RDM 50 74 43 82 / 30 40 20 0 LGD 56 74 52 82 / 10 50 20 0 GCD 55 76 48 83 / 30 70 40 0 DLS 60 78 57 85 / 10 20 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86 LONG TERM....86 AVIATION...97

524 FXUS65 KREV 032101 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 201 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Critical fire weather conditions, gusty winds, along with shower and thunderstorm chances are expected this afternoon and evening. * Temperatures will cool to below seasonal averages for Independence Day, with precipitation chances confined to northeast California. * A gradual warming trend begins Saturday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Upper level trough passing through the region starting this afternoon through tomorrow brings gusty winds and elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Gusty winds are expected to start early this afternoon across portions of western Nevada, the Sierra and northeast California. Winds speeds from the west and southwest between 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph while wind prone areas may reach gusts up to 45 to 50 mph. These winds will bring impacts to aviation and recreational activities, especially in the lakes, this afternoon and evening. Blowing dust is also a concern over the NV Basin and Range, and Mineral county, especially near I-80 and US-50. Showers and thunderstorms in the area may further complicate impacts created by blowing dust. Chances for storms, around 10-30%, later today are focused over NE CA and the NV Basin and Range generally between 1 PM to 2 AM. Tomorrow (Independence Day), rain and storm chances appear to be confined mostly to NE CA and NW NV near the OR border. Storm chances are relatively the same around 10-30% again. Therefore, the main concern tomorrow is still wind. Westerly winds up to 30-35 mph and gusts up to 45-50 mph in wind prone areas are likely. However, the duration of winds appears to be quite short. Anyway, aviation and recreational interests should pay attention to weather conditions near peak heating time between 2PM - 6PM, when the strongest winds of the day are expected. The good news for tomorrow is that afternoon highs will be significantly cooler compared to today. Temperatures will be around 5 to 15 degrees below average for early July. Western NV and NE CA afternoon highs will be in the 80s to around 90, while the Sierra communities drop to the 60s and 70s. This weekend, a high pressure area develops over the Desert Southwest that will contribute to dry conditions and a gradual warm up. The high pressure area slowly retrogrades from the Four Corners back towards the Las Vegas area next week. This will bring back well above average afternoon temperatures for the second week of July. By mid-week, the possibility of reaching the century mark returns for the lower valleys in the NV Basin and Range with a 60-80% chance. -HC && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are anticipated for most of the CWA. The exception is in areas near the OR border and Pershing/Churchill/Mineral Counties (KLOL-KHTH) as there are 20-30% chances of showers and thunderstorms between 03/20Z through 04/09Z. Primary hazards from storms include gusty/erratic winds and occasional lightning. Otherwise, westerly to southwesterly afternoon winds gusting up to around 30 kts. LLWS and turbulence are likely after 06Z this evening. -078/HC && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated to critical conditions are still expected for the rest of this afternoon and evening. West to southwest winds between 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph and wind prone areas with gusts up to 45 mph along with min RH below 15%. The main areas of concern continue to be western NV. Portions of NE CA and the lower elevations of the Sierra will have similar conditions. Therefore, the Red Flag Warning continues to be in effect through midnight. Potential for isolated dry lightning is expected this afternoon for the northern portions of Washoe county and northeast CA. The eastern half of Pershing, Churchill and Mineral county has a 10-30% chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms. For Independence Day, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are possible again due to breezy westerly winds and low minimum relative humidity values in the forecast during the afternoon hours. However, the duration of elevated to critical conditions appears to be brief, and only over isolated portions of northern Washoe, the southwestern portions of the NV Basin and Range, and the southeastern Sierra Front. -HC/078 && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Red Flag Warning from noon today to midnight PDT tonight NVZ420- 421-423-429-458. Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ002-004. CA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to midnight PDT tonight CAZ278. Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ072-073. && $$

191 FXUS66 KSTO 032123 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 223 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS... 15-20% chance for Shasta County mountain thunderstorms through tonight. Onshore flow will bring cooler, below normal temperatures with locally breezy winds for Friday(Independence Day). Dry weather is expected for Friday. A slow warming trend continues over the weekend into next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... * Thursday evening and night - Slight (10-20%) probability of showers and thunderstorms through early across the mountains of northern Shasta County * Friday(Independence Day) and Weekend: - Quiet, dry weather - Onshore winds will cool temperatures to below average Friday - Winds will be locally breezy at times, strongest through the Delta and over the higher elevations - Slow warming over the weekend into early next week, with continued dry conditions .Changes from previous forecast... - Slightly lower potential for showers and thunderstorms tonight. && .AVIATION... Mainly VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hours. Breezy onshore winds expected today with gusts up to 20-25 kts in the Valley and up to 30 kts in the Delta. Potential for brief MVFR/IFR conditions from isolated showers and thunderstorms over the northern Shasta County mountains and Southern Cascades late this afternoon until 06z Thursday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

848 FXUS65 KMSO 031951 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 151 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds and heavy rain continue this afternoon through Friday - A warming trend starts early this week that will culminate in another extended period of hot, dry weather. Satellite and radar are showing scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms developing across Lemhi county into southwest Montana. These storms will be capable of producing erratic winds with gusts up to 45 mph along with moderate to heavy rainfall. The storms will move off to the east during the evening hours. A small low pressure system will be moving through the Northern Rockies Friday into Saturday. A plume of showers along with embedded thunderstorms is expected to move from the south to the north during the morning and early afternoon hours. A second pulse of convection with even stronger storms is expected to develop during the afternoon over Lemhi county into southwest Montana. These storms will be capable of producing another round of strong erratic winds along with heavy rainfall. The heavy rain could cause localized flooding concerns especially over flood prone basins and recent burn scars. As the low moves off to the east on Saturday, wrap around precipitation will affect areas along the Continental Divide especially around Glacier National Park. While the remainder of the Northern Rockies experience scattered rain showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be significantly cooler as afternoon readings appear to be around 5 degrees below seasonal averages. A ridge of high pressure begins to build over the Northern Rockies Sunday through the middle part of next week causing a warming and drying trend. Temperatures once again appear to warm to around 10 degrees above normal by Tuesday. The extended models are showing a weak disturbance flattening the ridge by the latter part of the week. The timing and strength of this disturbance is still uncertain, but expect seasonal temperatures and increased westerly winds. This disturbance could also bring scattered showers and thunderstorms back to the Northern Rockies. && .AVIATION...Showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop over Lemhi county into southwest Montana this afternoon into the evening affecting KSMN and KBTM. The convection appears to diminish at both terminals by 04/02z. These storms will be capable of wind gusts up to 45 mph along with moderate to heavy rainfall. A plume of showers with embedded thunderstorms is expected to move northward by Friday morning affecting KSMN by 04/14z. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

223 FXUS65 KBOI 040243 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 843 PM MDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms developed in se Oregon late today and this evening, not quite severe but strong enough for gusts to 50 mph. Fewer showers and storms were occurring elsewhere this evening. Activity will decrease but not end in our CWA through the night then ramp up early Friday morning as a short wave trough approaches from the southwest. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for The West Central Idaho Mountains and Boise Mountains for 6 AM MDT to 2 PM MDT Friday. The watch area includes the Wapiti Burn Scar on Idaho state highway 21. Latest hi-res models show a distinct band of showers and thunderstorms with embedded heavy-rain cores moving northeastward through the watch area Friday morning, especially between 7 AM and 11 AM MDT, although other models also have significant rain through 2 PM MDT. This pcpn is associated with the approaching short wave trough. After brief ridging and relative clearing Friday afternoon a second trough is expected Friday night. Due to the forward speed of the first trough, rains may not last long but the intensity looks sufficient for downpours up to .25 inch in 15 minutes. && .AVIATION...Numerous showers and thunderstorms through Friday morning, becoming scattered Friday afternoon/evening. Threats: erratic outflow gusts to 30-45 kt, small hail, lightning, moderate to heavy rainfall. Localized MVFR/IFR conditions and mountain obscuration in storms. Surface winds outside of storms: variable 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: generally SW 10-20 kt KBOI...Mostly VFR. Periods of showers/thunderstorms through 05/14Z. Threats: erratic outflow gusts to 30-45 kt, small hail, lightning, moderate to heavy rainfall. MVFR conditions possible with storms, along with foothill obscuration. Showers/thunderstorms exit after 05/14Z, then chance of thunderstorms Fri afternoon. Surface winds outside of storms: NW 5-15 kt, becoming SW-NW 5-15 kt overnight. Weekend Outlook...Generally VFR. A 15-25% chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday morning in W-central Idaho, then clearing through Sunday. Surface winds variable or NW 5-15 kt. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday night... As of writing this (2pm MDT), thunderstorms have begun developing along the Nevada boarder and over the Idaho central mountains with a cumulus field developing over eastern Oregon. The expectation is for more storms to develop, mostly in eastern Oregon, within the next few hours before moving northeast through the evening. Hazards associated with these storms include small hail, wind gusts up to 55mph, and localized areas of blowing dust. Widespread rain showers with embedded thunderstorms will develop overnight tonight. This is thanks to the first shortwave out of a one two punch embedded within a negatively tilted trough. With the shortwave lowering heights and bringing cooler air in aloft, model soundings show weak elevated instability holding on overnight. While these nocturnal storms will be slightly weaker, they are still capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, small hail, and wind gusts up 50mph. In regard to sloped terrain and burn scars, rainfall rates with this round will generally be under 0.25 inches/hour, so have opted to not issue any hydro products. As the first shortwave and associated precipitation exits our area, slight ridging builds in ahead of the next shortwave. This will allow for a break in precipitation across most of our area around midday. Models are showing good airmass recovery after the morning shower/thunderstorms, and the cap associated with the low-amplitude ridge will allow for more instability to build with the HREF mean showing 500-1000j/kg. As the next shortwave moves across the area Friday afternoon, this instability, paired with shear values of 40-60 kt, mean that storms that develop could become severe. With hazards include wind gusts up to 60mph, hail, and localized heavy rain/blowing dust Temperatures drop to a few degrees below normal on Friday, staying in the 80s throughout the Snake Plain Friday/Saturday. LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Ridging is the name of the game through next week. Models are in good agreement of an upper-level ridge setting up over the Four Corners region, with a trough off the coast of California keeping our area in Southerly flow aloft. As this ridge builds, temperatures take on warming trend reaching roughly 10 degrees above normal by Monday. Heat headlines may be needed in the week to come as a result of the prolonged hot temperatures. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Flash Flood Watch from 6 AM MDT Friday through Friday afternoon IDZ011-013. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM MDT Friday IDZ426. OR...Red Flag Warning from 3 AM MDT /2 AM PDT/ to 11 PM MDT /10 PM PDT/ Friday ORZ670-672>674. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening ORZ670-672. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...NF LONG TERM....NF

064 FXUS65 KLKN 032123 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 223 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 132 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 * Isolated wet and dry thunderstorms through this afternoon and Friday afternoon with lighting and gusty winds. * High temperatures in the mid to upper 80s through Saturday before gradually climbing back well into the 90s with Moderate HeatRisk into next week. * Critical fire weather conditions Friday afternoon and evening over portions of east-central Nevada due to strong winds and low relative humidity. Other areas will remain elevated. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025 WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A weak stationary front across southern Oregon and Idaho will be the focus for continued isolated wet and dry thunderstorms through this evening. Hi-res guidance brings a slight increase in coverage with more scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight as a more pronounced shortwave perturbation moves overhead. Thus, expecting more activity through the overnight than last night. isolated showers and thunderstorms early Independence Day look to move out of the area into the afternoon and evening, with a 25% chance continuing through the late afternoon across eastern Elko and White Pine Counties. A breezy afternoon as well across most of the forecast area with west-southwest winds into the afternoon gusting from 25 to 30 mph, which will create critical fire weather conditions across White Pine County. See fire weather section for more information. An upper level trough stalls just off the northern California coast into the first half of next week with the 4 Corners High intensifying and shifting slightly westward into the second half of next week for increasing high temperatures into the mid to upper 90s and expanding Moderate HeatRisk across most of the valleys of northern and Central Nevada by Tuesday and Wednesday, which may necessitate additional heat headlines. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Moderate confidence in thunderstorms through tonight, though low confidence on placement and timing this evening. Long range ensemble guidance is in good agreement on slow building of the Four Corners High into next week. Moderate confidence on a drier pattern into next week with placement of the high shunting monsoonal moisture. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected at all terminals over the next 24 hour period however thunderstorms this afternoon may bring visibility down when passing over the terminals. VCTS expected at all terminals, dissipating to calmer skies in the evening with CIG levels staying low around FL080 to FL120. Breezy southwesterly winds at 10-15 kts, gusts up to 20-25 kts at all terminals. Convective wind gusts up to 45 kts are possible from passing storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather conditions continue across all zones due to thunderstorms, elevated winds, and low RH values. Elevated to near critical conditions tomorrow with a Red Flag Warning issued at NV425. NV426 and NV427 also look to be near critical, but are not expected to reach red flag criteria. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday for NVZ425. && $$ DISCUSSION...84 AVIATION...97 FIRE WEATHER...97