ZSE Aviation Forecast Discussions

923 FXUS66 KSEW 250441 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 941 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A stronger, more typical fall weather system has arrived on the coast this afternoon, and will continue moving into the area through Friday. Rain, increasing winds and the potential for isolated thunderstorms are forecast for the area through tomorrow. Drier, but cool weather is expected over the weekend with additional chances for precipitation early next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Rain has arrived along the coast and is working its way inland to the Kitsap Peninsula this afternoon. More widespread rain is expected throughout Puget Sound this evening, which will continue overnight. The core of the low pressure system and associated front will be arriving tomorrow morning, and will increase not only the southerly winds along the coast, but the instability for afternoon thunderstorms. There is still some uncertainty as to where the center of the low makes landfall. The ensembles favor it arriving at the Columbia River Bar, but there is still a 10-15% chance that it arrives along coastal Grays Harbor County. If this scenario occurs, winds throughout Puget Sound will be stronger, with gusts upwards of 25-35 mph. Gusts along the coast in this situation would be closer to 50-55 mph. There is still considerable spread between the 10th and 90th percentile solutions for wind gusts. Conditions will be monitored and the forecast will be updated if guidance suggests the more northward track of the low. Current QPF forecasts through Friday evening suggest a half to three quarters of an inch of rain in the lowlands with over an inch along the coast, Olympics and Cascades. In addition to the gusty conditions, snow levels drop as low as 5,000 to 6,000 feet by late Friday. These elevations could receive a dusting to few inches of snow. The airmass will be unstable through Friday, with around a 20-25% chance of afternoon thunderstorms. These storms will generally favor areas from King County north, and in the terrain of the Cascades. Any storm that develops will be capable of lightning, small hail, brief periods of heavy rain and gusty/erratic winds. Keep this in mind for any outdoor activities tomorrow afternoon. Conditions dry out quickly overnight on Friday into Saturday morning. Highs will struggle to get much warmer than the low 60s under mostly cloudy skies. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sunday will also be dry with highs again in the low 60s, though with more afternoon sunshine. Zonal flow aloft will continue into Monday, with general troughing over the NE Pacific. Additional systems bringing more rain appear possible on Monday and Tuesday, with a midweek break and more unsettled weather by late in the week. 21 && .AVIATION... Ceilings will lower to MVFR to IFR as a frontal system spreads across the region. Periods of lower visibility will also be possible in the heaviest rain. This will bring periods of LIFR possible in the heaviest rain along the coast. Lower ceilings will arrive to the coast around 00Z, moving into the interior around 06-09Z tonight and persist through the period. There will be a slight (15-25%) chance of thunderstorms on the back end of the system, mainly Friday morning along the coast and Friday afternoon through the interior. Winds will increase along the coast after around 12Z Friday morning, then across the interior after 18Z Friday, with gusts to 20-25 kt across the region through 00z Saturday. Stronger gusts possible through the Strait of Juan de Fuca later Friday with a westerly push. KSEA...VFR conditions continue this evening, but expect steadier rain to arrive with MVFR cigs/visibility after 08z into the remainder of the night. Some periods of IFR may be possible through 15Z Fri in heavier rain. Winds become light this evening, but become stronger from the south early. Winds further increase Friday with gusts to 25 kt after 18z Friday. && .MARINE... A low pressure system will continue to slowly make its way through the coastal waters. The low center currently sits of the coast of south-central OR but will make its way to the northwest, likely making landfall around the mouth of the Columbia early Friday morning. Winds will increase over the coastal waters tonight, with the strongest winds over the southern-most zones, especially on the back side of the low center as the winds switch from south/southeasterly to north/northwesterly. That is where the highest confidence for gale force winds will be. Winds will ease over the coastal waters Friday afternoon. Through the interior waters, winds will start to increase Friday morning. The strongest winds will be through the Strait of Juan de Fuca, where gusts may reach up to 35-40 kt. Elsewhere, Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected. Winds will peak across the interior waters Friday afternoon before slowly easing Friday night. Conditions become calmer through the weekend as high pressure rebuilds offshore. A weak frontal system will dissipate well offshore on Sunday. A stronger system looks to move through the waters on Tuesday, which will be the next chance for gusty winds over the area waters. Seas 6-8 ft this afternoon will rise to around 10-13 ft, locally as high as 13-15 ft under the strongest winds. Seas then ease Friday night, down to 4-6 ft through the weekend. Seas may rise back to around 10 ft as the next system moves through on Tuesday. Lastly, there is a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms over the coastal waters on Friday. 62 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Gale Warning from 11 AM Friday to 5 AM PDT Saturday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 5 AM PDT Saturday for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for Puget Sound and Hood Canal. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm. Gale Warning until 5 PM PDT Friday for Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

360 FXUS66 KPQR 250601 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATE National Weather Service Portland OR 1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 Updated Aviation discussion and W/W/A section .SYNOPSIS...An early-season frontal system will bring widespread rain and gusty winds to the region this evening through much of Friday. The progressive pattern will see dry weather quickly return late Friday through the weekend, before chances for rain increase again early next week. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Friday Night...An area of surface low pressure currently located near 44N/130W, or roughly 300 miles west of Florence, is expected to track to the northeast before moving onshore somewhere near the mouth of the Columbia River Friday morning. A weak warm frontal boundary lifted northward earlier today, bringing light rain showers to the south Washington and far north Oregon coasts, while the associated cold frontal boundary currently sits some 20-60 miles offshore. This front will bring steady rain to the coast later this afternoon, beginning between 4-6 PM PDT, before pushing inland to the I-5 corridor by 7-10 PM PDT this evening. There is a 15-20% chance for an isolated embedded thunderstorm within the cold front along the Oregon coast and western slopes of the Coast Range this afternoon before chances decrease after sunset. Winds blowing out of the south will increase at precipitation onset, reaching 20-30 mph along the coast and 15-25 mph inland. Winds gusts will be higher, at least up to 40-45 at the coast and 35-40 mph inland. Steady rain will transition to on-and-off rain showers behind the cold front by 10 PM-12 AM PDT this evening at the coast and 1-3 AM PDT Friday along I-5. Cooler air in place aloft near the low center will support sufficient instability to maintain rain showers into the day Friday, when daytime surface heating will act to further increase instability and generate 15-20% chances for thunder anywhere between the coast and the Cascade crest. An isolated cold core funnel also cannot be ruled out, most likely along the coast, but impacts at the ground from these features are unlikely. As the surface low nears the coast Friday morning, winds will shift out of the southwest to west and steadily weaken through much of the day west of the Cascades, however to the east of the crest within the Hood River Valley, downslope acceleration on east- facing slopes will see strong winds prolonged through Friday afternoon. A Wind Advisory has been issued from 8 AM through 8 PM PDT Friday in the Upper Hood River Valley, particularly for areas west of Oregon Route 281, where wind gusts have the highest chance of exceeding 50 mph. While these forecast winds may be lower than typical wintertime wind storms, the early season nature of this system may favor tree damage at lower wind speeds as full leaf cover acts to increase drag on tree limbs. While widespread impacts from winds are not anticipated, some areas of locally stronger winds may result in pockets of tree or limb damage which could in turn yield downed power lines and outages. While limited instability will cap thunderstorm intensity, the availability of higher momentum air at low altitudes will make any thunderstorm or heavy rain shower capable of producing gusty outflow through Friday afternoon, which may also support local areas of wind damage. Rainfall amounts remain unlikely to cause impacts, with annual minimum streamflows able to handle runoff without flooding concerns. Rain showers will end across most areas west of the Cascades by Friday afternoon, and in the Cascades by midnight Friday night. Progressive shortwave ridging will then favor rapid drying through Friday night. Temperatures will remain below average during this period, with afternoon highs only in the upper 50s to low 60s across the region on Friday. Cooler air behind the frontal boundary will see overnight lows fall into the 40s through Friday night, and perhaps to the upper 30s in the Hood River Valley. There is a 10-15% chance of low temperatures below 37 degrees in the Odell area, and 40-60% chances farther up the valley near Dee and Parkdale. Frost Advisories may be needed in these areas if confidence in frost impacts increase. -36 .LONG TERM...Saturday through Thursday...The progressive pattern aloft will see upper-level ridging and surface high pressure support dry weather through the weekend, although moderating temperatures are still likely to remain below seasonal norms. Cool overnight lows may favor further chances for frost in the Upper Hood River Valley, with decreasing confidence after Saturday morning. The majority of long-range ensemble members favor troughing to return to the Pacific Northwest early next week, although there remains much spread in its intensity and location. Chances for rainfall therefore increase again to 20-40% Monday through Wednesday, generally higher to the north and within areas of terrain. -36 && .AVIATION...Through 06Z Friday...Rain is quickly moving across the forecast area as the initial front is pushing toward the Cascades this evening. Southerly flow aloft turns westerly Friday morning as an upper level trough moves across the region, while a compact low near the coast is expected to bring breezy south to southwest winds in the lower levels tonight into Friday morning. Vsbys have been reduced to 3-5 SM with the rain band this evening, but is expected to push east by 08-09z Friday. CIGs are beginning to lower at the coast to around FL015-025 and should continue to lower inland as well resulting in predominately MVFR conditions, with highest probs for MVFR occurring between 14-20z Friday. At the coast, probs for IFR peak between 12-18z at around 20-40%. Showers are expected to continue through Friday afternoon. Best chance for thunderstorms (20%) appears to be near the north Oregon coast late tonight into Friday morning, which chances for afternoon thunderstorms generally 15% or less. South winds are expected to increase along the coast and through the central and northern Willamette Valley, peaking between 10-18z Friday with gusts up to 30-40 kt. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect a mix of VFR and MVFR conditions this evening becoming predominately MVFR between 14-20z Friday as CIGs lower behind the initial frontal passage. Stronger showers will bring potential for reduced VIS to 3-5SM through early Friday afternoon. South winds are expected to increase overnight with gusts up to 25-35 kt through 18z. Winds turn more westerly after 21z Friday along with high chances of returning to VFR. /DH && .MARINE...A strong low pressure system will move over the coastal waters tonight into Friday, bringing rapidly increasing winds and seas along with widespread rain. Gale Warnings are in effect beginning 5 PM Thursday for the waters south of Cape Foulweather, and 11 PM Thursday for the waters north of Cape Foulweather including the Columbia River Bar. These Gale Warnings are followed by Hazardous Seas Warnings that last through Friday afternoon/evening. Given that the low pressure system will be coming from the southwest, will see winds ramp up across the southern waters at first, then gradually increase towards the northern waters heading into tonight. Expect widespread wind gusts as high as 40-45 kt with a 30-50% chance for brief and isolated storm-force wind gusts to 50-55 kt. Expect steep and choppy seas that are wind-driven. Seas build to around 9-11 ft at 10 sec tonight into early Friday morning, peaking late morning around 15-17 ft for the waters beyond 10 NM, and peaking early afternoon around 14-16 ft for the inner waters up to 10 NM offshore. Seas will gradually subside Friday afternoon as winds quickly weaken. By late Friday evening, seas fall to around 7-9 ft at 9 seconds. Northerly winds increase over the weekend, strongest Saturday afternoon and evening when wind gusts increase to 20-25 kt. -10 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM PDT Friday for ORZ109>115. Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday for ORZ121. WA...Wind Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM PDT Friday for WAZ205>207. PZ...Gale Warning until 2 PM PDT Friday for PZZ210-251-252-271-272. Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM to 8 PM PDT Friday for PZZ210- 251-252-271-272. Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT Friday for PZZ253-273. Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM to 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ253- 273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

210 FXUS66 KMFR 250549 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1049 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...25/06Z TAFs...A front is passing through the region this evening, bringing gusty winds ahead of it and moderate to heavy precipitation. VFR conditions prevail ahead of and with the front, though heavier precipitation is bringing periods of MVFR visibilities. This front will weaken as it approaches the Cascades tonight, so expect VFR conditions to continue across northern California and east of the Cascades. Behind the front, MVFR conditions prevail along the coast and will do so into Friday morning. Expect gusty winds to continue across the terrain into Friday morning. The associated surface low will move inland near Astoria tonight, and this will bring a secondary uptick in gusty winds between 09z- 15z tonight into Friday morning. Low level wind shear will remain a concern north of Cape Blanco until then. Showers will follow behind the front through Friday morning, mainly along the coast and north of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide and a slight chance of thunderstorms continue along the coast through around sunrise. Otherwise, clouds will gradually dissipate late Friday morning into the afternoon. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 510 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty winds are expected along the coast and in the high Cascades later tonight. * Wetting rain is expected west of the Cascades with a low chance of rain by Friday morning. * Temperatures cooler than normal Friday into the weekend. * Low impact weather continues into the weekend with some areas of frost and freezing temperatures Friday night. DISCUSSION... Radar echos are starting to show up off the coast this afternoon as warm moist air moves in ahead of cold front. That cold front should swing through the southern Oregon coast later tonight into Friday morning with wetting rainfall along the coast and over locations west of the Cascades. Rainfall will generally be 0.15 to 0.4 inches with significantly lower totals east of the Cascades. Northern California will also miss out of the rain as the moisture and lifting mechanisms are farther to the north. Main impacts from this event will be some gusty winds in the Cascades and along the coast. The extreme forecast index(EFI) is pointing out unusually high wind speed and wind gust values off our coastline in the Pacific. However, nothing really stands out over land. We`re expecting some gusts to 45 mph near North Bend with the frontal passage. Those stronger wind gusts should also hit the higher Cascades and exposed areas around Crater Lake and Diamond Lake. Eventually, the cold front will push into southern Oregon later tonight around 10 to 11 pm and move eastwards overnight. Temperatures will cool rapidly overnight and trend about 10 degrees cooler for Friday night. There is some risk of frost and freezing temperatures in northern California near Tennant and Tulelake area Friday night. We`re holding off on any products right now, although it is something to watch for. Right now the NBM has a 80-90% chance of reaching 32F around Tennant and Bray in central Siskiyou County. Later in the day, the trough axis will shift eastwards by Friday afternoon and we`ll see isolated showers over southern Oregon by Friday afternoon. Conditions gradually trend drier into the day as high pressure slowly builds. By this weekend, things will quiet down with temperatures much cooler than normal as highs push into lower 70`s and upper 60`s, which is roughly 10 degrees cooler than normal for late September. Heading into next week, zonal flow is more likely with a warm front pushing into southern Oregon and northern California. Temperatures make a gradual trend higher through the 70`s for most of next week. Ensembles remain very dry for our area with the next cold front hitting Washington state. About 2/50 12Z ECMWF ensembles bring some rain our way, so the chance of rain around Tuesday into Wednesday is very unlikely. Heading towards the end of next week, there are more hints of a trough passage and perhaps some rain here in southern Oregon and northern California. Again, the odds remain very low and under 5%. Overall, active weather continues through the forecast period with limited impacts to the public and regional infrastructure. -Smith MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, September 24, 2026... Southerly winds are present across area waters ahead of an approaching low pressure system. The system looks to swing to the north and keep the strongest winds out of this area, but gusty winds and very steep seas are still expected this evening into Friday morning. Gale gusts will be possible north of Reedsport late tonight through early Friday morning, while hazardous seas are expected in all other waters. Gale gusts leave the forecast but very steep and hazardous seas look to continue in all waters into Friday afternoon. Winds and seas ease into Friday night but a thermal trough looks to develop on Saturday, which will keep some amount of unsettled seas across area waters. This through may be short-lived, with winds easing on Sunday. Long period westerly swell builds on Sunday afternoon, but right now guidance does not show this swell supporting Advisory conditions but local areas of steep seas may be possible. -TAD && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350- 370. Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-370. && $$

990 FXUS66 KEKA 242110 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 210 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 KEY MESSAGES... * Dry conditions and gusty winds will bring elevated fire weather conditions to Southern Mendocino, Lake counties and areas of Trinity County this afternoon. * A passing cold front brings light rain and gusty south winds to Del Norte and northern Humboldt this evening into early Friday. * Cooler temperatures will arrive this weekend behind the front, bringing chances for isolated interior frost. && .SYNOPSIS...An approaching cold front introduces more extensive cloud cover and light rain to Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties this evening into Friday. Colder temperatures will follow through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... A trough with a compact and deepening surface low will near the region, clipping NW CA late this evening. The best shot of light rain will be from Del Norte to Northern Humboldt. Areas of Del Norte could see periods of moderate rain with around a 50% chance for over 1 inch of total rainfall. Chances for anything over 0.1 inches quickly lowers to zero south of Cape Mendocino. The interior ridges will see some gusty winds from the stronger winds aloft with the trough. There is a high chance (70%) for gusts to exceed 30 mph coastal and interior ridges of Del Norte late Thursday into Friday morning. Chances for gusts over 25 mph and locally up to 30 mph are also high for south Mendocino and Lake counties this afternoon. This will create some fire weather concerns for those areas due to the drier conditions. A colder air mass will arrive overnight Friday. This will bring the potential for frost for some of the coldest interior valleys (particularly Hayfork). Chances for chilly temperatures and frost will continue into at least early next week. A trough will pass through Sunday. This storm system and a shortwave disturbance preceding it Saturday will be mostly dry, but could bring an afternoon shower or two for the interior. The extended outlook looks to remain dry with no chance for wetting rainfall. && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFs)...VFR conditions are now being observed at all TAF sites with a few lingering low clouds off the Del Norte County coast. High and mid level clouds are streaming over the region as a cold front approaches. Ceilings will descend this evening as a cold front approaches, particularly in Humboldt and Del Norte counties. Rain will begin at CEC a little after 00Z with several hours of light to moderate rain expected. The rain will likely reach ACV after 03Z with only a brief period of 2-3 hours of light rain likely. Southerly winds will increase ahead of the front with a few gusts into the teens or even low 20 kt range possible at CEC before the frontal passage. Ceilings will fall overnight into the morning hours. Conditions will be much more favorable in Mendocino and Lake counties overnight into Friday with VFR prevailing and some gusty northwesterly winds this afternoon and again Friday afternoon. && .MARINE...A trough approaching from the west will weaken the northerlies today. Though the W to SW winds will remain relatively light, there is a strong westerly wind fetch around the low which will drive in a quick pulse of steep west northwesterly seas around 9-12 ft at 10-11 seconds for most of the waters. Seas may reach hazardous levels at 12 ft for the far NW waters out around 30 to 60 NM. These seas will increase rapidly tonight through Friday morning and will bring dangerous conditions to small crafts. The northerlies will restrengthen Friday afternoon, and will be near gale to gale strength in at least the outer waters by Saturday and are likely to continue into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER...A trough and surface low will clip the region today. Light precipitation is expected from around Cape Mendocino and northward through northern Humboldt and Del Norte, with no precipitation expected south and east of the cape. This storm system will increase westerly winds this afternoon and into Friday. RH will be on the rise with the moist flow, but there will be a period of near to locally critical fire weather conditions this afternoon (Thursday) in Trinity, eastern Mendocino, and Lake Counties. Recoveries will be good overnight tonight, even in areas without rain. Northerly to westerly winds will remain gusty Friday, although RH trends higher. A pronounced offshore wind surge will then develop Friday night, drying out the interior somewhat Saturday with min RH dropping to the low 20 to upper teens. The extended forecast does not include any more chances for wetting rain. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

994 FXUS66 KMTR 250352 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 852 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 920 AM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 - Warming trend persists today bringing pockets of moderate HeatRisk across parts of the Bay Area and Central Coast. - Cooler conditions arrive Friday into the weekend. - Near seasonal temperatures early next week. && .SHORT TERM...Issued at 358 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 (This evening through Friday night) The lack of marine layer development last night (aka our natural air conditioning) allowed temperatures to reach well into the mid 80s to 90s across the interior mountains and valleys of the North/East/South Bay and Bay shoreline, with temperatures closer to the mid 90s across the interior Central Coast. The Pacific coastline remains under the marine influence, therefore temperatures were observed in the mid 60s to 70s. Overnight, the anticipated cold front pushes through our forecast area. This will bring some relief Friday morning with a thick post- frontal stratus deck and a prominent onshore push of cool, albeit dry, air. Despite the frontal passage, dry air aloft will mix out the majority of low clouds allowing high clouds to dominate the skies through the afternoon into the evening. Because the main core of the 500 mb trough remains far north of our area, no significant impacts are expected with this system. The main impact associated with the post-frontal environment are strong gusts around 20 to 25 mph along the coast into the SF Peninsula. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 358 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday) This weekend, the troughing pattern persists, thereby allowing for cold air advection to gradually fill into the region. There is potential for the 500 mb trough to dig more southward over the Bay Area and Central Coast Sunday into Monday, eventually becoming a cut- off low southeast of our forecast area. In response, building high pressure behind the trough may induce a push of weak offshore flow across the higher terrain in the North and East Bay, initiating another warming period early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 850 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 VFR is expected to prevail through the forecast period for a majority of the terminals. Higher confidence in Monterey Bay sites developing MVFR/IFR ceilings late in the overnight hours to near sunrise, with lower confidence for the North Bay and Bay Area sites around the same time. Vicinity of SFO...VFR with gusty onshore winds persisting through a majority of the forecast period. A slight chance of MVFR ceilings developing around sunrise with low confidence in the extent and timing due to a relatively weak marine layer that mostly confined to the coast. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR with higher confidence in MVFR/IFR ceilings developing late in the overnight hours to near sunrise Friday morning, with VFR expected by mid-morning due to the weak and compressed marine layer. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 850 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 Expect fresh to strong northerly breezes to continue through the weekend behind a cold front that pushes through overnight. Near gale force winds are possible across Monterey Bay south to Big Sur Sunday afternoon and evening. Tropical storm activity producing long period southerly swell begins to increase for the beginning of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 450 AM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 Marine layer is pretty much non-existent overnight. That led much less RH recovery across the district at both lower and higher elevations. NGFS gave us a hit earlier in the night as the Timber Fire had an northern perimeter flare up. Even FireGuard showed the heat as well. Not completely surprised given temps in the 70s and RH recovery around 30 pct near Timber. Otherwise, notes for today will be another mild and dry day across the district. Hottest and driest across the interior portions. Do expect an uptick with winds late tonight and Friday as a dry front moves through. Cooler and wetter for Friday and over the weekend. MM .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Friday to 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Navarrete LONG TERM....Navarrete AVIATION...JM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

272 FXUS66 KOTX 250545 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1045 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mild temperatures, before cooling Friday into the weekend, with highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s Saturday. - A system brings stronger winds and an increasing risk for rain, thunderstorms and high mountain snow Thursday night through Saturday. && .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures remain mild today, with dry weather. A strong system Thursday night into Friday will bring gusty winds, rain and along with chance of thunderstorms, and high mountain snow. Temperatures trend cooler Friday into the weekend, when afternoon highs fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s by Saturday. A dry, fall like pattern expected for start of next week. && .DISCUSSION... ...WINDY CONDITIONS FRIDAY... For thunderstorms, ensembles bring the best chances late morning to middle afternoon. Moderate Theta-e values across the region support convection with the front passage. As the front passes, indices Cape values are in the 200-400 J/kg. Lapse rates are +6. The best chances are over the Cascades and northern mountains. These areas have 20-30 percent chance for thunderstorms. The region has less than 20 percent chance. Main impacts will be lightning, gusty outflows, and brief heavy downpours. Cold, dry air will fill in behind the exiting front. Winds in the 850-700mb range from 35-45 mph. Behind the cold front, low level winds to mix to the surface and bring gusty winds to most of the Basin into the early evening. Models have a more gradual drop in the Theta-e values than previous runs. The change has led to a slightly lower winds speed forecast. There is 50 percent probability for winds 40+ mph across the Basin. An pocket of 50+ mph is possible over the Waterville Plateau and Central Basin. Blowing dust is possible but is dependent on the amount of rain from earlier in the day. Possible impacts include airborne objects, difficult travel for high profile vehicles, and isolated power outages. Saturday through Tuesday: Behind the system, the region will be under the influence of a cool, dry shallow trough pattern. Any precip chances will be near zero by midday Saturday. It will definitely feel like autumn across the region. Highs will be in the upper 50s to low 60s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 30s to 40s. Frost could be an issue for areas in the Cascades and northern mountains. /JDC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: VFR conditions are expected at least initially with middle and high cloud decks thickening into early Friday. Shower chances will spread east through Friday morning. Winds will generally be less than 10kts through 09Z before increasing with frontal passage. Winds will shift to southwesterly with gusts into the 25 to near 40 kt range during the late morning and afternoon. There is a small chance of blowing dust in the Columbia Basin and Spokane area in the afternoon but confidence is low. There is a small chance of MVFR cigs (20-40%) for KGEG- KSFF-KPUW-KCOE from 17-21z with the rain coming through. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. Moderate confidence in showers moving into 10-15Z Friday and moving out of the area around 22z. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 52 63 43 62 39 65 / 0 90 10 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 53 62 44 60 39 64 / 0 100 40 0 0 0 Pullman 48 63 39 60 36 64 / 0 90 10 0 0 0 Lewiston 57 70 47 66 44 68 / 0 80 0 0 0 0 Colville 45 64 35 64 32 67 / 10 100 50 10 0 0 Sandpoint 50 62 39 57 35 63 / 0 100 80 20 0 0 Kellogg 52 62 42 56 38 63 / 0 90 60 10 0 0 Moses Lake 51 66 41 64 39 67 / 10 80 10 0 0 0 Wenatchee 58 66 47 63 46 65 / 60 80 10 0 0 0 Omak 52 64 41 64 40 66 / 30 100 20 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Northeast Blue Mountains-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse- Waterville Plateau. ID...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse. && $$

108 FXUS66 KPDT 250507 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1007 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread showers and breezy to windy conditions develop Friday morning into Friday night. Wind Advisories in effect from 8 AM Friday through 11 PM Friday. - Dry and light wind conditions return this weekend with temperatures below normal. - Mountain showers and at or below seasonal temperatures Monday onward && .UPDATE... Have issued additional Wind Advisories for Friday`s wind event, in effect for Central Oregon (8AM-5PM) as well as the Lower Columbia Basin of Washington and the Foothills of the Blue Mountains of Washington (11AM-11PM). && .DISCUSSION... Current satellite imagery shows high and mid-level clouds moving in over the forecast area which might make temperatures cooler than the forecasted high temperature for the day, while surface observations are relatively calm and quiet. Friday...As the upper-level trough and attendant low propagate inland from the coastal PacNW, there is a chance (80-90%) of widespread showers across much of Central and northeast Oregon and into central southern WA early Friday morning. As this system moves through the area, model guidance and ensembles show rain showers beginning after midnight near the Cascades with more widespread rain beginning after 8 AM PDT. There will be a (70-90%) chance for measurable rain for most of the forecasted area Friday, with a chance (80-90%) for wetting rain, more so in the mountainous areas near the Cascades, Ochoco Mountains, and Southern/Northern Blues. At least 0.05-0.2 inches are forecasted elsewhere in the forecast area (50-60%). Along with this precipitation, the upper trough and surface low system will bring gusty west-southwesterly winds to much of the forecast area (85-90%). Winds will be 25-30 mph with gusts up to 35-45 mph across the Cascade Gaps and Columbia Basin due to the strong low-level jet moving through and mixing down to the surface, as well as the Rattlesnake Ridge and Horse Heaven Hills (85-90%). Winds will be 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph elsewhere (70-80%). Yakima and Kittitas Valleys could see gusts 45 mph or higher but chances are lower (35-40%) Friday afternoon. Saturday-Sunday...Showers and windy conditions should diminish late Friday night into Saturday morning as the upper trough and low propagate northeast out of the forecast area. Relatively dry conditions are expected with the upper flow becoming more westerly bringing light winds back into the area Saturday morning. Model guidance shows a weak broad trough begin to develop offshore the PacNW Saturday night, then slide into the region through Sunday, but due to lack of moisture and strong upper-level flow, it will mostly be dry with light wind conditions and temperatures in the low-mid 60s. Ames/01 Monday through Wednesday: Models show the region to be under a weak split flow pattern with a ridge to the north of the region and a trough to the southwest. This will bring continued dry conditions and light winds through Monday night. In house calculations show the temperatures to be nearly 5 degrees below seasonal average Monday with temperatures in the mid to upper 60s with isolated locations in the Basin seeing low 70s. By Tuesday models are in agreement that the synoptic system will shift more towards zonal flow. Clusters are in good agreement with mainly the strength of the incoming system with mainly timing being the lack of confidence. By Tuesday morning, light mountain showers will begin over the Washington Cascades before shifting to the crests of the Blue Mountains with 40% of the ensembles showing precipitation chances. Temperatures will be slightly warmer than Monday but still at or near normal seasonal temperatures in the low 70s (40-60%). Wednesday models begin to phase apart with GFS showing northwest flow aloft precipitation along the Cascade crests and a front coming across the area while the Euro shows continued zonal flow with precipitation along the WA Cascade crests. NBM appears to be a bit more in line with the Euro with only showers along the WA Cascade crests. In house calculations show temperatures to be at or near seasonal normal with a few isolated locations seeing slightly above normal temperatures. Temperatures are set to be in the low to mid 70s (50-60%). 90 && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast through the period. While they cannot be entirely ruled out, confidence in MVFR CIGs/VSBYs is low (20% or less) at all sites. A low-pressure system will bring rain and rain showers to the region overnight into Friday morning, with some low (10-30%) chances of lingering post-frontal rain showers through the afternoon. Winds will become breezy to very windy at all sites, generally 15-25 kts with gusts of 25-35 kts, by middle to late morning. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 53 69 40 65 / 0 90 0 0 ALW 56 69 45 66 / 0 90 10 0 PSC 55 72 43 69 / 0 70 0 0 YKM 55 65 40 64 / 60 30 0 0 HRI 55 72 43 68 / 0 80 0 0 ELN 51 61 36 60 / 80 50 10 0 RDM 48 59 31 64 / 80 10 0 0 LGD 53 66 38 64 / 0 60 0 0 GCD 53 66 37 67 / 0 50 0 0 DLS 56 66 45 68 / 80 60 10 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for WAZ024-027-521. Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for WAZ028-029. OR...Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for ORZ041-044-507- 508-510. Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 5 PM PDT Friday for ORZ511. && $$ UPDATE...86 DISCUSSION...01/90 AVIATION...86

281 FXUS65 KREV 241951 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1251 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Seasonably warm and dry conditions will continue today with temperatures 4-8 degrees above average. * Increasing southwesterly breezes will prevail this afternoon with stronger wind gusts expected on Friday with a dry cold front, leading to elevated fire weather concerns. * Cooler, near-normal temperatures return for the weekend, with highs dropping 5-10 degrees below average early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Seasonably warm and breezy conditions will prevail this afternoon before a dry cold front results in cooler conditions with gusty winds and areas of increased fire weather concerns on Friday. Breezy conditions will continue through this afternoon with most areas seeing gusts between 20-30 mph today, creating localized fire weather concerns and choppy conditions on area lakes, especially north of US-50. Winds will strengthen further late Thursday night into Friday as the front approaches. Ridgetop gusts could exceed 75 mph, followed by widespread southwest gusts of 30-40 mph north of US-50 Friday afternoon. The combination of gusty winds and low humidity could create critical fire-weather concerns; see the Fire Weather Discussion below for details. In addition, smoke from the Dome Fire SW of Yosemite, may result in areas of smoke and haze across Mono County with moderate impacts to air quality possible. Temperatures will cool on Friday, but will remain near season averages. The more noticeable cooldown is expected Sunday-Monday where highs may fall 5-10 degrees below average. Some colder Sierra valleys could drop below freezing Saturday morning, with freezing temperatures becoming more likely early next week. While prospects for precipitation remains minimal over the weekend. A weak upper-level low may introduce enough instability to present a 10-20% chance for a few light rain showers or high elevation snow flurries across the high Sierra in Mono County (>9500`) on Sunday. Fuentes && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon with increasing W-SW wind gusts this afternoon with terminal gusts generally around 20-25 kts Winds will continue to strengthen across the northern Sierra tonight, with FL100 winds of 40-45kts possible after midnight resulting in increased mountain wave turbulence and LLWS. Surface gusts across Tahoe and W.Nevada could see gusts around 25-25kts with otherwise dry conditions prevailing. Fuentes/Justin && .FIRE WEATHER... Areas of elevated fire weather concerns are possible this afternoon as wind gusts reach 25-35 mph for most areas, with afternoon RH falling to 10-15%. Isolated areas may experience a few hours of critical fire weather conditions, mainly along the Sierra Front, far northwest Nevada, and northeast California. The strongest winds are expected Friday afternoon ahead of a dry cold front. Southwest gusts of 30-40 mph are most likely north of US-50, while wind-prone locations along US-395 in Mono County and the Sierra Front could see gusts up to 45 mph. Minimum RH will increase slightly Friday, particularly across NE California and far N.Washoe County where the Fire Weather Watch has been cancelled due to these higher RH, but W.Nevada areas have been upgraded to Red Flag Warnings due lower RH expected. Fuentes && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday NVZ002>004. Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM PDT Friday NVZ420-421. Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM PDT Friday NVZ423-429. CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday CAZ071>073. && $$

829 FXUS66 KSTO 242156 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 256 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of Elevated Fire Weather Conditions for portions of interior NorCal into early next week due to breezy winds and low humidities. - Areas of Moderate HeatRisk in the Northern San Joaquin Valley into this evening. - Low chances (around 10%) for isolated showers for northwestern Shasta County tonight into Friday. Otherwise, primarily dry weather continues into next week. - Periods of breezy to gusty winds Friday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today-Tonight (9/24)... Sunny skies are being observed across Northern California this afternoon, with just some thin cirrus clouds ahead an approaching trough with a weakening cold front. Temperatures for the week peak today, this afternoon currently reaching the upper 80s to low 90s across the Valley, warmest in the northern San Joaquin Valley, where there are areas of Moderate HeatRisk. Winds are light now, but onshore flow will increase in the Delta and over the mountains this evening tonight as a trough passes to the north, through the Pacific Northwest. While the trough passage will be dry for the vast majority of the area, there is a low, nonzero chance (around 10%) of isolated showers along the northwestern edges of Shasta County this evening into early Friday. Most of the rain is expected to remain farther north and west. ...Friday-Sunday (9/25-9/27)... The trough will bring additional periods of breezy to gusty winds Friday into Saturday, with winds mainly out of the west- southwest on Friday, then shifting out of the north northeast on Saturday for the northern and central Sacramento Valley and adjacent mountains and foothills, with gusts in those areas 20 to 30 mph. On Saturday the combination of gusty winds and low afternoon humidity percents in the upper teens to low 20s bring a several hours of elevated fire weather conditions. Additional periods of breezy to gusty southerly flow area expected on Sunday as the trough deepens and pushes through Northern California, mainly over the Sierra. Models continue to favor a continued dry pattern, though the pattern suggests the we can`t rule out the possibility of stray mountain showers. ...Monday-Wednesday (9/28-9/30)... Periods of breezy northerly flow are forecast to develop on Monday through the Sacramento Valley as the aforementioned trough tracks over the Desert Southwest, with downsloping northeasterly to easterly winds over the Sierra. Breezy north winds through the Valley and downsloping winds in the Sierra are favored on Tuesday as well. These will bring the potential for more significant elevated fire weather conditions. Temperatures remain on track to trend warmer through the week as weak ridging builds over interior NorCal. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue through the rest of today and into tonight, with mostly clear skies. Sustained winds will be generally less than 12 kts. Breezier Delta winds are expected tonight into Friday through 18Z. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

531 FXUS65 KMSO 241839 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1239 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Cold front tomorrow with gusty winds and some showers. - Cutoff low this weekend brings rain and possibly some snow showers to northwest Montana and Glacier National Park. A cold front moving across the region tomorrow will mainly cause gusty winds and some light showers in northwest Montana. A wind advisory has been issued for portions of northwest Montana due to the potential for wind gusts over 40 mph. While predominant winds are expected to stay under 30 mph, at least in the lower elevations, mountain wave winds are causing the potential for the stronger gusts. The usual locations will be the windiest. The highest probability for gusts over 40 mph is along a line from Happy`s Inn down to Hot Springs with a 70-90 percent chance in that region. There`s also about a 40 percent chance in the western Mission Valley and along the western shores of Flathead Lake. Even if the gust 40 mph do not occur along Flathead Lake, the winds will easily exceed the Lake Wind Advisory criteria of gusts over 30 mph for that area, causing choppy conditions on the lake. Finally, the area west of Kalispell near Kila, which is another typical windy spot in northwest Montana has a 70% chance of gusting over 40 mph. These chances all come from the 24/12Z run of the HREF, an ensemble of short range, high resolution models. The upper level support behind the cold front is a cutoff low that will migrate across the region on Saturday. It brings with it a chance for snow in the Glacier Park region. Recent runs have trended down with only a 10-15 percent chance of 1 inch or more of snow at Logan Pass. But don`t be fooled by the trends, it will still be a wet, cold, and windy day in the backcountry, so if you`re out there be prepared for prime hypothermia conditions. In the longer term for mid next week and beyond, the ensembles have an unusual amount of disagreement. Overall, the trend is for a building ridge, which they all agree well on beyond the 7-day forecast. However, from Monday through Thursday, there`s considerable disagreement between the ensembles on how quickly it will warm up. That being said, there`s also no real signs of any high impact weather during that period. && .AVIATION...TAFs are pretty mild this afternoon with only a few wind shifts in them. The next significant weather event for aviation in the region is just beyond the 24/18Z TAFs, so as the 25/00Z TAFS come out, start looking for more wind. Wind is the main impact from a cold front moving across the region tomorrow, though some showers in northwest Montana and general mountain obscurations will also occur tomorrow. Lower ceilings and showers with the potential for freezing levels dropping to around 6,000ft MSL as the upper low supporting that cold front moves northeast out of the region. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Wind Advisory from 2 PM Friday to midnight MDT Friday night for Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region. ID...None. && $$

606 FXUS65 KBOI 250540 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1140 PM MDT Thu Sep 24 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and windy this afternoon. - Cold front to pass through eastern Oregon Friday morning and western Idaho Friday afternoon. Front will bring gusty northwest winds, sharply cooling temperatures, and brief showers and isolated thunderstorms to northern and western areas. - Mostly cloudy and cool Saturday and Sunday. - Sunny and warmer Monday, then partly cloudy, breezy, and cooler Tuesday. - Dry and gradually warmer Wednesday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... Issued 210 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2026 Mostly sunny, hot, and windy weather this afternoon under dry southwest flow aloft. A strong Pacific cold front just off the northwest coast today will move inland tonight, through our Oregon zones Friday morning, and Idaho zones Friday afternoon. The frontal passage will be marked by a wind shift from southeast to gusty northwest, followed by falling temperatures. Highs in eastern Oregon Friday will only be in the 60s to mid 70s, or 15 to 20 degrees cooler than today, while Idaho zones will have enough time to get into the 70s to mid 80s before the front arrives, with the remaining cooling coming on Saturday. This frontal system will be lacking in moisture, with showers and isolated thunderstorms occurring only briefly in northern- most areas just after the front passes. Southern areas will have increasing clouds but remain dry. Skies should clear for a few hours in eastern Oregon Friday night as the supporting upper trough moves out, but clouds will increase again overnight as another Pacific trough comes inland. Idaho will stay partly to mostly cloudy the whole time through Saturday. The clouds and lingering northwest winds will keep low temps from dropping way down Saturday morning, although Harney and Baker Counties will still manage to get below freezing. The second upper trough will keep our CWA partly to mostly cloudy and cooler than normal Saturday through Sunday. Models allow a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in easternmost Idaho zones Sunday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued 210 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2026 Monday looks sunny and warmer as the second upper trough moves out, but Tuesday looks windy and slightly cooler again as the next broad but shallow Pacific upper trough comes inland. Models are in wide disagreement after that with GFS steadily deepening the upper trough which would bring further cooling, while ECMWF moves the trough out which would bring warming. Our decision, based on NBM, is for gradual warming to normal while staying dry Wednesday through Friday. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 1139 PM MDT THU SEP 24 2026 VFR. A cold front will bring gusty winds and lower ceilings in eastern Oregon and w-central ID after Fri/15Z. LLWS expected at KMYL through Fri/16Z. Frontal rain-band will pass through NE Oregon and w-Central ID late morning and afternoon, with light rain and virga around KBNO/KBKE/KMYL. Surface winds: S-SE 5-15 kt with gusts 15-20 kt. Strengthening SW-W winds with gusts to 25-35 kt after Fri/16Z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 15-25 kt, becoming 25-45 kt Fri morning. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: SE 7-15 kt with occasional gusts near 20 kt through Fri morning. Cold front will move through Friday afternoon, shifting winds to NW 10-20 kt with 25-30 kt gusts. Weekend Outlook...VFR and continued gusty winds Friday evening behind cold front. Saturday will be partly cloudy and Sunday mostly cloudy as another system and isolated showers move through the area. Surface winds: SW-W 10-20 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt Friday evening, NW 5-15 kt Saturday, and NW 10-20 kt Sunday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....LC

620 FXUS65 KLKN 242149 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 249 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Fair weather continues through the end of the week with afternoon breezes. Much stronger winds are in store Friday and Saturday * Temperatures will gradually cool each afternoon beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend. * A fifteen to thirty-five percent probability for rain showers expected Sunday and Sunday night but amounts will be on the light side. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are mostly sunny out there across the entire forecast area. There are a few mid clouds hanging around central Nevada but not enough to block out the plentiful sunshine. Northern and central Nevada is sitting west of an upper ridge in northern Utah. This feature will slide to the east and north during the overnight. The weather will remain quiet tonight with lows in the 30s and 40s. An upper level trough will be diving to the south and east Friday. Surface winds will be on the increase from the southwest with speeds gusting from 30 to 40 mph. A few locales could see gusts to 45 mph but effects will remain localized. Patchy blowing dust is possible during the afternoon that could drop the visibility to three miles or so. Afternoon high temperatures will be in the 70s and 80s. Look for the winds to diminish during the early to mid portions of the evening. Overnight lows temperatures will be in the 30s and 40s. The main upper low will remain well north of Nevada for Saturday. Southwest flow will continue across the area which means dry conditions will persist. Winds are forecast to be strong again across central nevada with gusts of 25 to 35 mph. High temperatures will cool several degrees with readings in the 70s and 80s once again. No precipitation and limited cloudiness is expected for Saturday night into Sunday with lows in the 30s and 40s. Another wave is expected to approach the western United States Sunday. This one is further south than the previous trough and will be moving on shore in California during the afternoon. Skies will become partly to mostly cloudy during the day with the possibility of isolated rain showers during the late afternoon and overnight across the forecast area. Amounts will be light with most valley locales seeing nothing up to five hundredths of an inch. Highs will again cool by a degree or so with readings generally in the 70s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s. The upper low will continue its eastward progression Monday and Tuesday. The deepest moisture is expected to remain far east and south of the forecast area with scattered rain showers clipping the eastern and east-central portions of the forecast area, including White Pine county. Highs both afternoons will be in the 70s with lows in the 30s and 40s. The flow remains westerly for Wednesday and Thursday, which means mainly dry conditions. Highs are expected to warm a few degrees each day with readings in the 70s and 80s. Lows will be in the 30s and 40s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Only minor adjustments were made to the wind and wind gust grids for Friday and Saturday afternoon. Otherwise, no other changes were made to the NBM. Confidence is high for the strong winds Friday and Saturday afternoon, along with slight cooling each day. Meanwhile, confidence in the light rain showers increases to moderate for Sunday, though placement of activity and amounts remain low. This includes the activity seen Monday as well. There is moderate to high confidence in the return of upper level ridging for the middle of next week restoring quiet and dry pattern over Nevada. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the dominant flight category through the upcoming 24 hour period. Winds will increase late tomorrow morning and early afternoon across all terminals with gusts between 25 to 35 knots. Patchy BLDU will be possible with reductions to 3SM in the most dense dust. Winds will subside after 26/03Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Look for elevated fire weather conditions for Friday across the northern fire zones 424, 437, 438, 469, and 470. Winds will be gusty with speeds of 30 to 40 mph, but minimum relative humidity values will generally be at or above 15%. For Saturday and Sunday, elevated fire conditions will shift southward with fire zones 425, 426, and 427 being most affected. Winds will gust 25 to 35 mph with minimum relative humidity values right around 15% or higher. Some locales could see slightly lower RH`s to 12%, but the areal coverage will not be enough to warrant critical headlines. Afternoon high temperatures will cool a degree or two each day. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86