267 FXUS66 KSEW 050930 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 230 AM PDT Sun Apr 5 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level ridge over Western Washington today weakening Monday. Upper level trough moving by to the north Monday night into Tuesday inducing a marine push Monday night. Upper level ridge well offshore with upper level low off the Northern California coast giving the area dry northwesterly flow aloft wednesday through Friday. Upper level trough moving down from the north approaching the area next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Satellite imagery shows high clouds over Western Washington this morning. The cloud cover has prevented any fog from forming. Temperatures at 2 am/09z were in the 40s. Upper level ridge over the area today. Southwesterly flow aloft will keep high clouds moving through Western Washington. Low level flow offshore. This will push high temperatures into the 60s and lower 70s. Upper level ridge remaining in place tonight into Monday with the ridge weakening Monday. Low level offshore flow weakening overnight with light low level flow Monday becoming onshore in the afternoon. With ocean water temperatures between 50 and 52 degrees this switch to onshore winds will cool the coast down into the mid to upper 50s. Highs over the interior remaining in the 60s and lower 70s. Lows tonight with the high cloud cover in the 40s. Classic marine push scenario Monday night with an upper level trough moving by to the north inducing an increase in low level onshore flow. Breezy conditions near the Strait of Juan de Fuca into Whidbey Island as well as along the coast into the Lower Chehalis Valley. Increasing clouds Monday night into Tuesday morning. Onshore gradients weakening Tuesday afternoon with sunshine returning to the area. Lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Highs Tuesday much cooler, in the lower to mid 50s. Felton && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Extended models showing good run to run consistency through Friday. Upper level ridge well offshore combining with a stationary upper level low off Northern California giving Western Washington dry northwesterly flow aloft. Another round of frost advisories is possible for the Southwest Interior and Lower Chehalis Valley in the morning hours both Wednesday and Thursday. Lows in the 30s and lower 40s. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Model consistency falls apart Saturday with the GFS bringing an upper level trough down from the north while the ECMWF cuts the trough off well north of the area. Ensembles not real excited about the trough scenario but enough solutions with light precipitation to include a chance of showers Saturday. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Highs remaining in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .AVIATION... High pressure aloft remains in place. Northerly surface winds continue over the area with speeds generally ranging 7-12 kts. This will persist into this evening before speeds ease below 7 kts. KOLM, KHQM, and to a lesser extent, KBLI are favored to see some fog and mist development this morning, lingering until 14-15Z before clearing out. Otherwise expect VFR conditions with just upper level cirrus clouds at times. KSEA...VFR is expected through period under mostly clear skies. Northerly surface winds hold around 10 to 12 kt through this evening, easing by around 03Z tonight to 5-7 kts. Any low clouds that form in the vicinity this morning will remain away from the terminal area. 21 && .MARINE... Broad high pressure remains in place across the area through Monday with a weak thermal trough build up along the west coast, keeping winds northerly. Winds will increase Monday evening as a front passes by to the north and stronger high pressure builds in behind it. Small Craft Advisory conditions look likely across much of the coastal waters, though will have to continue to monitor the potential for gales (30-50% probability) through the Strait of Juan de Fuca with a strong westerly push that moves into Admiralty Inlet and the Puget Sound. Winds will slowly ease on Tuesday and remain relatively light through the rest of the week as high pressure remains in place over the northeast Pacific. Seas remain 3 to 6 ft through Monday. Seas will then build up to 8 to 11 ft Monday night into Tuesday, and these waves will be steep with dominant periods of around 8 to 9 seconds. The highest waves are also likely to be in the northern portions of the outer waters during this time. Seas look to remain in the 5 to 8 ft range through the rest of the week. 21 && .HYDROLOGY... No river flooding the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$

829 FXUS66 KPQR 051026 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 325 AM PDT Sun Apr 5 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will persist through Friday aside from a 15-30% chance of showers over the Oregon Cascades in Lane and Linn counties Wednesday afternoon through Thursday evening and Friday afternoon/evening. High pressure will maintain well above normal temperatures for this time of year through Monday. Onshore flow returns Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing relatively cooler temperatures. Trending a bit warmer again Thursday into Friday with light offshore flow developing. && .DISCUSSION...Sunday through Saturday night...High pressure and low-level offshore flow remains in place today with scattered to broken high clouds and light winds, aside from the western Columbia River Gorge and the Troutdale, Washougal and Camas area where easterly winds are a bit breezy with gusts up to 15-25 mph. Expect easterly winds to ease late in the day as low-level offshore flow weakens. Despite the aforementioned high clouds in place today, temperatures are still on track to warm well into the mid to upper 70s across the interior lowlands and upper 60s to lower 70s at the coast. Most locations within the Willamette Valley and greater Portland/Vancouver metro have anywhere from a 10-30% chance of reaching 80 degrees or warmer this afternoon, which would likely only occur if high clouds are thin enough during peak heating. Although high pressure weakens a bit tomorrow with 850 mb temperatures cooling slightly, high clouds will be dissipating. Given a full day of sun, Monday is on track to be just as warm as Sunday with similar probabilities of reaching 80 degrees. The only exception is at the coast where the return of onshore flow will bring relatively cooler temperatures compared to Sunday with highs near 60 degrees. A few record high temperatures may be tied or broken both Sunday and Monday. It is not recommended to cool off in local lakes and rivers as water temperatures are currently frigid enough to result in cold water shock, which can become life threatening. Models and their ensembles continue to suggest temperatures will trend cooler Tuesday and Wednesday with dry northwest flow aloft and relatively stronger low-level onshore flow. The NBM depicts low model spread for temperatures both days, suggesting highs will likely wind up in the low to mid 60s, except 55-60 degrees at the coast. Note dry weather will persist both days, with one potential exception over the Oregon Cascades in Lane and Linn counties beginning Wednesday afternoon and continuing through Thursday evening. This is when there is a 15-30% chance of light showers due to wrap-around moisture from the south associated with an upper level low off the California coast. It is also worth mentioning that areas of morning frost are still possible on Wednesday and Thursday, mainly away from the Portland metro where morning lows will be coolest. That said, probabilities for lows of 36 degrees or colder have decreased slightly from previous cycles of the NBM. Probabilities now range between 10-25% over the interior lowlands and inland coastal communities, except 1-5% in the Portland metro to the east of the West Hills and 40-75% in the Upper Hood River Valley from Odell to Parkdale. Anyone with sensitive outdoor vegetation that is susceptible to frost damage should stay up-to-date on the temperature forecast over the coming days and monitor for potential Frost Advisories. Model guidance is now trending warmer Thursday afternoon through Friday compared to previous cycles due to potential shortwave ridging on the northeast periphery of the aforementioned upper low. As such, the deterministic NBM is now suggesting highs in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees over the interior lowlands both days. However, there is still some uncertainty regarding how amplified the shortwave ridge will become, and there is a 25% chance highs wind up in the mid 60s or cooler. Chances for rain finally return next weekend (25-50% chance), however guidance suggests rain amounts will most likely be light and non-impactful (80-90% chance total rain amounts will be under 0.25 inches from 5am Saturday through 5am Sunday, April 11-12). -23 && .AVIATION...Widespread VFR flight conditions will continue across northwest OR and southwest WA through Sunday night with scattered to broken high clouds above 20 kft. Light offshore winds at the coast should be enough to prevent fog or low clouds from developing at KAST and KONP based on the latest trends. Localized fog has developed in the Creswell area this morning but is not expected to expand into KEUG. Breezy easterly winds continue at KTTD with gusts up to 19-21 kt, but should weaken Sunday evening. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Expect VFR flight conditions to continue through 12z Monday with scattered to broken high clouds above 20 kft. Light and variable winds less than 5 kt should become easterly sometime between 17-19z Sunday, sustained between 6-10 kt. -23 && .MARINE...High pressure remains anchored over the waters and is resulting in rather benign conditions. Seas early Sunday morning were around 4 to 7 feet and are expected to remain within that range through at least Thursday morning. Northerly winds have decreased to below 15-20 kt over the waters early Sunday morning, bringing an end to Small Craft Advisory conditions. Winds will turn more offshore and weaken later Sunday morning before temporarily becoming southerly late Sunday into Monday morning as a thermal trough along the coast moves offshore. Winds are still on track to become northwesterly by Monday afternoon, and will then remain out of the north to northwest through the remainder of the week. Seas are expected to build slightly to 7 to 9 ft late in the week in response to increasing northerly winds (up to 20-25 kt) and a fresh northwesterly swell that will impact the waters. This will likely result in another round of marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions. -23 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

314 FXUS66 KMFR 051204 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 504 AM PDT Sun Apr 5 2026 .UPDATE...Aviation Discussion Updated. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1217 AM PDT Sun Apr 5 2026/ DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery early this morning shows a wide expanse of high clouds moving over the area ahead of a weak shortwave slowly moving north just offshore. A thermal trough set up along the Oregon coast will keep us warm and dry through the weekend with temperatures pushing into upper 70`s and perhaps lower 80`s over some locations. Fog will likely fill into the Umpqua Valley by sunrise as there is some boundary layer moisture there, although the drier air today could dry things out. Plus, the higher clouds could reflect some of that long wave radiation back to earth. In any case, we kept fog in the forecast, although confidence still isn`t high in the formation. Sunday will be another warm day as the thermal trough begins to move farther inland. However, our temperatures stay put with highs in the upper 70`s west of the Cascades and low 70`s east of the Cascades. Monday is an interesting day as the ridge breaks down and a short wave moves into southern Oregon early in the day. A few models and about 15-25% of GEFS/ECMWF ENS are bringing precipitation to the Cascades and other portions of our forecast area. Looking at GFS model soundings, there is convective available potential energy(CAPE) along the Cascade crest with some of that CAPE is between -10C to -20C. The latest and greatest experimental rapid refresh forecast system(RRFS) is modeling echos >40dbz with some lightning east of the Cascades mostly in our CWA. Therefore, we put some thunderstorms in the forecast along the Cascades, although they will most likely be showers with some occasional rumbles of thunder. Its more of a question of where these will develop not if they will develop. Keep a look out for showers east of the Cascades on Monday as well. By Tuesday, a cold/stationary front will settle over central Oregon with a cutoff low off the coast of northern California. The models are bringing a 10-20% chance of rain to the area. A trough in Canada then slides down the Cascades and it seems the chances of rain increase to about 50% on Wednesday. There is still a lot of variability on Wednesday with some ensemble members keeping things completely dry, while others bring in plenty of precipitation with some thunderstorms. The variability could continue give the split flow and cut off low in the Pacific. Given the higher snow levels, don`t expect any significant snow with the precipitation on Wednesday. && .AVIATION...05/12Z TAFs...VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period for most the area. Some areas of LIFR/IFR conditions could return to the Umpqua Basin (including Roseburg) around sunrise this morning. Over the coastal waters, LIFR/IFR conditions in marine stratus may develop south of Cape Blanco, then spread into areas north of Cape Blanco later today. Areas along the coast will see increasing chances for LIFR/IFR conditions with marine fog and stratus late this evening. && MARINE...Updated 1200 AM PDT Sunday, April 5, 2026...Gusty north winds will gradually ease today, although steep seas persist for the outer waters into Sunday morning. Then, relatively calm conditions are expected through early next week. Another thermal trough develops next week, bringing a potentially extended period of strong north winds and steep seas beginning Tuesday afternoon. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ370-376. && $$

238 FXUS66 KEKA 050759 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1259 AM PDT Sun Apr 5 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Much warmer and drier than normal conditions will continue to peak Sunday, Conditions will slowly ease early next week with rain potential mid week. && .KEY MESSAGES... -Interior highs in the low 80s today with minor HeatRisk. -Chance (50%) of wetting rain showers mid next week. && .DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure will continue to peak today. On Saturday, the warmest interior valleys managed to reach up to 83 with very dry RH. Clear skies arched all across the area. Weak wind and clear skies even helped conditions near the coast get close to 70. Near identical conditions will continue Sunday. There is high confidence that high pressure will gradually weaken by early next week with a low pressure system moving in along shore. This will bring still much above average, but slightly cooler conditions, especially at the coast where marine influence will resurges. The path, strength, and moisture associated with this low remains highly variable. Overall rain chances have decreased slightly around Wednesday but increased later in the week. Most model ensemble members show a trough far north of the area mid week with a cutoff lie meandering along the central coast. This setup provided high uncertainty, but would be conducive to moisture pulling up the central alley and generating week storms and showers. Overall chance of wetting rain remains around 50% with chance of 0.5 inches now near 5%. Regardless for rain amount , gusty north winds will build behind any rain late next week. /JHW && .AVIATION...Prevailing VFR conditions with high clouds is expected for all TAF sites through the period. Light and variable winds, becoming W at 5-10 kts in the afternoon. HREF model suggest a shallow marine layer developing across the coastal waters and pushing onshore Sunday night into Monday, with the potential of IFR/LIFR ceilings Monday morning for the coastal terminals. /ZVS && .MARINE...Relatively calm conditions are expected to persist through Tuesday, with light and variable winds and low seas below 5 feet. Northerlies will begin to increase Tuesday night in the wake of a weak cold front, with moderate to strong breezes possible by mid-to-late week. However, there is a high uncertainty regarding the strength of the northerly winds as a positively tilted cut-off low approaches the area from the west before tracking southward. Latest GFS and ECMWF ensembles suggest generally light to gentle breezes persisting across the waters through mid-week, with moderate to strong breezes over the outer waters late in the work week. /ZVS && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

235 FXUS66 KMTR 051126 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 426 AM PDT Sun Apr 5 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1238 AM PDT Sun Apr 5 2026 - The hottest temperatures of the forecast for today - Cooling trend begins next week - Beneficial rain chances increase mid to late next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1238 AM PDT Sun Apr 5 2026 (Today and tonight) Temperatures warmed well for the afternoon and early evening in spite of the overcast high clouds leading to a few daily high temperature records tying: Salinas and Half Moon Bay. These warmer conditions are the result of a building ridge pattern, which will also call for warmer overnight temperatures and reduced humidities. Expect lows to fall to the upper 40s in the far interior, while the rest of the region sees the mid to lower 50s. The slightly warmer start and reduced humidity coupled with the building ridge will allow for Sunday to see the hottest temperatures in the forecast. Winds will be light or still in most places as temperatures climb 10 to 15 degrees above average for most areas. A few isolated interior and high elevations look to see highs 20 degrees above average. The immediate coast will peak in the upper 60s to mid 70s, while most of the inland areas see the 80s. There will be some hotter spots in the Santa Cruz Mountains and interior Monterey Co that could break into the 90s. The pattern changes quickly that night as the ridge pushes east and a weak short-wave trough opens over California. This will allow for a fair increase in onshore flow and reduce pressure enough to reform the marine layer. These factors will cause chances for fog and low stratus to return to the coast and interior valleys by Monday morning. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1238 AM PDT Sun Apr 5 2026 (Monday through Saturday) Expect notably cooler conditions for Monday from the increased onshore flow, better humidity retention, and that reformed marine layer. Highs, will still be above average but only by a few degrees. Expect widespread highs in the 70s, with the immediate coast in the 60s and the far interior seeing the low 80s. Tuesday and Wednesday continue the cooling trend as cloud cover increases ahead of a building trough and low pressure approach from the west. This low will bring rain chances back to for forecast, but has been slowing it`s time of arrival over the last few forecast updates. Initial warm-sector drizzle looks to hit the coast by mid to late Wednesday morning, while actual measurable rain will be holding off until late that night and into Thursday morning. The slowing of this system also calls for rain chances lasting longer than previous forecasts. Chances for widespread light rain and drizzle last through Friday with lingering, spottier chances lasting into Saturday afternoon. Despite the prolonged rain chances, rainfall amounts still look fairly light. Most of the lower elevations of the Bay Area will only see a few hundredths, then up to a tenth for higher elevations in the Bay Area and lower terrain around the Monterey Bay, while higher elevations in the Santa Cruz Mountains and Big Sur Coast look to pass that quarter inch mark. Isolated peaks in the Santa Lucias could pass the half inch mark. Confidence in the spread of rainfall amounts is still shaky, particularly Friday and Saturday. Models seem to be struggling on the track of the low and the momentum loss. While widespread chances for light rain and drizzle come with good confidence, there is still good potential for these rainfall totals to see some shifting. If the low takes a different track or stalls over the area it could lead to fairly notable changes in where the focus of the rainfall will be. That being said, overall rainfall across the models still looks fairly light. Even if the low stalls over the Central Coast, rainfall may only increase by a few tenths on the highest peaks on Big Sur. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 420 AM PDT Sun Apr 5 2026 Lingering offshore flow (much less than 24 hrs ago) and a dry BL has led to another morning of VFR conditions with a few high clouds overhead. Expect VFR through early tonight. Looking farther west over the ocean ad stratus deck is inching east. Latest timing brings a compressed marine layer back to the coast this evening and nosing inland late tonight. Impacts initially to HAF and MRY 00-04Z and after 09Z low clouds infiltrate SF Bay. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through late tonight. CIGS around 1k feet return for the Monday AM rush. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Low cigs return after 00Z and then remain tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 420 AM PDT Sun Apr 5 2026 High pressure to the north will maintain light to moderate breezes over the coastal waters through early next week. Locally stronger winds will develop near the Big Sur Coast by midweek. Unsettled weather returns the middle of next thanks to a low pressure system over the Pacific. The low pressure will bring fresh to strong gusts across the northern waters, and moderate seas. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 110 PM PDT Fri Apr 3 2026 The following are the record high temperatures at the long term stations for April 5th. Location April 5th Santa Rosa 90 in 1939 Kentfield 88 in 1924 San Rafael 87 in 1957 Napa 86 in 1989, 1957 Richmond 83 in 1989 Livermore 84 in 1989, 1916 San Francisco 88 in 1989 SFO Airport 84 in 1989 Redwood City 87 in 1989 Half Moon Bay 74 in 2016 Oakland Museum 85 in 1989 San Jose 89 in 1989 Salinas Airport 95 in 1989 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Murdock LONG TERM....Murdock AVIATION...MM MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

796 FXUS66 KOTX 051115 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 415 AM PDT Sun Apr 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer and dry early this week. - Gusty winds and dry conditions Tuesday. Elevated grass fire potential in the late morning and afternoon Tuesday. && .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry conditions will continue through Monday. Temperatures will warm above normal with highs in the upper 60s to the low 70s into Monday. Temperatures cool back to near normal Tuesday with a dry cold front passage. The Inland Northwest looks to be unseasonably dry through the next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday: A ridge of high pressure will continue to strength over the area. This will bring dry, warm weather. Higher clouds, however, will spread across the area leading to some partly sunny to mostly conditons just for those high clouds. Highs will in the upper 60s and 70s today and 70s and low 80s Monday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 30s and low 40s. The ridge begins breakdown Monday with a trough approaching from Canada. This will start to bring in breezy/gusty winds Monday afternoon into Monday night. Gusts in the 15-25 mph are forecast, strongest near the Cascades/central WA. Tuesday: The trough will push a strong dry cold front through the area. Ahead of the front early in the day, precipitable water values are around 130-140 percent of normal. The primary precipitaiton chances will be over the Cascades and northern mountains and that will be light. As we head into the later morning and afternoon, the drier air pushes in with PWATs dropping to 45-75% of normal. The front and mixing with it will provide gusty winds. Guidance shows sustained winds in the 15-30 mph range, with gusts between 30-40 mph, locally near 50 around the Blue Mountains. The strongest are forecast around the Okanogan Valley (especially early) and also around the Columbia Basin and Palouse into the Blues. The dry, breezy conditions lead to some early season fire concerns for dry grasses and shrubs in the Basin. Tuesday`s highs will be about 10-15 degrees cooler than Monday, reaching the 50s to mid-60s. Wednesday to Saturday: High pressure will build off the Pacific Northwest coast and bring another period of dry weather until perhaps later Saturday into Sunday. Ensembles continue to show a less the 10 percent chance of precip through Friday. Then heading into Saturday (and next Sunday) the ridge is forecast to break as Gulf of Alaska Low drops in. This will increase precip chances, with the best risk around the mountain zones, expanding out more across the eastern third of WA Saturday night (into next Sunday). Highs will be in the mid 50s to low 60s Wednesday, warming into the 60s and low 70s by Friday. Lows will be in the 30s and low 40s. /Solveig && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected with broken high clouds. A few fair weather cumulus possible near the mountains in the afternoon. Winds generally light and diurnal, with slightly higher drainage winds near COE/PUW Sunday AM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 67 44 71 45 56 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 67 44 68 45 55 33 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 Pullman 67 46 68 47 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 71 48 73 49 63 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 69 41 72 41 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 Sandpoint 63 43 66 45 53 31 / 0 0 0 10 20 10 Kellogg 66 45 67 46 53 34 / 0 0 0 10 20 10 Moses Lake 74 46 77 45 63 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 69 49 75 44 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 69 46 74 42 61 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

015 FXUS66 KPDT 051018 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 318 AM PDT Sun Apr 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Above-normal temperatures through Monday. - Low (5-15 percent) chance of thunderstorms Monday. - Widespread breezy to windy conditions Monday night through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... An upper-level ridge is in place over the Pacific Northwest early this morning, though broken high cloud is evident on satellite imagery as a weak shortwave approaches from the southwest. Ensemble NWP guidance is in excellent agreement that the ridge axis will continue to shift overhead today, resulting in very high confidence (95 percent) that temperatures will remain above normal. From a deterministic standpoint, widespread afternoon high temperatures in the 70s, and isolated lower 80s, are advertised by the NBM today and Monday. Glancing at probabilistic output, there is a high (70-95 percent) chance the eastern Columbia River Gorge, Yakima Valley, lower Columbia Basin, and lower elevations of north-central and central Oregon will reach 80 degrees Monday. Dry conditions are expected (95 percent confidence) under the ridge today, but guidance is showing low (10-20 percent) chances of showers and very low (5-15 percent) chances of thunderstorms Monday as a weak shortwave wriggles into the Pacific Northwest from the Pacific and a closed low and attendant cold front slide southeast into British Columbia and northwest Washington. CAMs are showing a weakly unstable atmosphere (MUCAPE/SBCAPE 250-500 J/kg) over the mountains, primarily the Blues, but also portions of the Cascades of both Oregon and Washington. Thunderstorms, if any, will be of the air mass variety due to weak shear (15-25 kts effective) and slow storm motion of 5-10 kts to the east or east-southeast is anticipated. Gusty outflow appears to be the primary hazard with this convection, and CAMs are outputting up to 35 kts with the most robust cells. Forecast soundings suggest DCAPE of 500-800 J/kg which would support these sub-severe outflow winds. By Tuesday, ensemble guidance generally depicts a closed low in the Pacific approaching the OR/CA coast while the aforementioned closed low treks across the Northern Tier. The trend in guidance has been farther north and east with the low from Canada, resulting in forecast temperatures that are near to above normal Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds Monday night and Tuesday are still the best chance of a headline-worthy event for the next week. The NBM suggests a low- medium (30-60 percent) chance of reaching or exceeding advisory-level wind gusts (45 mph or greater) through the Cascade gaps and across wind-prone portions of the Columbia Basin and surrounding lowlands. Looking ahead, there is significant uncertainty in the evolution of the 500-hPa pattern Wednesday through the remainder of the week as ensemble guidance struggles to resolve the track of the offshore cut-off low in the Pacific. Latest 00Z runs have trended less progressive and ensemble means keep the closed low in the vicinity of the OR/CA border or northern/central California Wednesday through Friday. The trend towards a split flow pattern has resulted in an upward trend in forecast temperatures and would keep above-normal temperatures in place for the duration of the week. Delving into some analysis of uncertainty in the 500-hPa pattern, ensemble cluster analysis shows roughly 30-40 percent of members keep the closed low in a position that is favorable for shower and thunderstorm development for a small portion of our CWA across central and eastern Oregon Wednesday through Friday, but the bulk of the activity would remain in south- central Oregon and northern California. The remainder of the ensemble members are still advertising a more progressive pattern with the low diving southeast into California sooner and/or place the low farther south. 86 && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast for all sites into Monday, with broken high cloud cover. Winds will be diurnally and terrain- driven with sustained winds of 12 kts or less forecast for all sites. That said, confidence is high (70 percent) that PDT/RDM/BDN will observe periodic afternoon gusts in the 15-20 kt range, similar to yesterday. 86 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 72 45 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 72 49 74 50 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 74 46 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 72 46 78 42 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 73 45 79 49 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 68 44 73 40 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 74 39 75 38 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 69 42 74 43 / 0 0 10 10 GCD 71 42 73 41 / 0 0 10 10 DLS 74 49 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86

700 FXUS65 KREV 050944 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 244 AM PDT Sun Apr 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry weather with unseasonably warm temperatures will prevail early this week. * Cooler and more unsettled weather remains likely during the second half of this week, but confidence is low on details. && .DISCUSSION... The latest RAP upper air analysis shows an upper ridge over the Western CONUS with a trough well off to the west over the Pacific Ocean. Current satellite imagery and surface observations report dry conditions and light winds underneath high clouds in the area this morning. Model forecast guidance has the ridge persisting through today allowing for the dry conditions as well as the current warming trend to continue. Valley portions of W NV and NE CA have high temperatures today ranging between lower to middle 70s while Sierra communities will be in the lower to middle 60s range. Overnight low temperatures even expect to be a few degrees warmer when compared to those experienced during the previous night. For tomorrow, models are showing a weak disturbance passing through the region during the day within the ridging pattern. A weak surface trough associated with this disturbance passes through the region which will translate to some breezy westerly winds. The Sierra Ridges have around a 50-60% chance of gusts exceeding 30 mph on Monday with lower elevations in the Sierra Front having a 10-20% chance for the same. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected once again along with daytime high temperatures continuing to warm by a few degrees. The dry pattern continues through Tuesday as well with the region seeing mostly similar daytime temperatures compared to those forecast for Monday. The weather pattern does look to change by Wednesday as an upper low is projected to move closer to the N CA coast. While there is still uncertainty in details with this low (track, timing, general evolution), models are showing increased chances (>15%) for precipitation on each day for the rest of the week. A potential cold front passage on Wednesday also will allow for cooler temperatures for the latter half of the week compared to the former half. Will be monitoring how this all pans out as there could be some afternoon thunderstorms (~15% chance or less) with these late week precipitation chances in the Sierra and NE CA. With the temperatures cooling in the tail end of the week, measurable snowfall also could potentially be seen at the Sierra crest though not seeing impactful amounts at this time. -078 && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expect to continue today for all area TAF sites. While area winds look to be lighter today compared to yesterday, Sierra Front terminals will have northwesterly winds up to around 10 kts this afternoon. Dry conditions are forecast going into the beginning of the work week, followed by a potential pattern change on Wednesday. -078 && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

485 FXUS66 KSTO 041936 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1236 PM PDT Sat Apr 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm weather expected into early next week with Minor HeatRisk. - Cooler temperatures and unsettled weather mid to late next week with rain, thunderstorms, and high-elevation snow. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today through Early Next Week... Winds have generally decreased returning to lighter, variable winds this weekend. Above normal temperatures and dry conditions are anticipated across the region into early next week as ridging remains in place. Daytime highs will be 10-20 degrees above normal through early next week. High temperatures will be into low to mid 80s in the Valley today through Monday, with Widespread Minor HeatRisk in the Valley, Delta and foothills. Sunday will the warmest day over the next several afternoons before trending cooler next week. Individuals should practice heat safety and use caution and life jackets near cold area waterways. ...Mid to Late Week... Ensembles depict a troughing pattern developing across the area by mid to late week, bringing cooler temperatures and unsettled weather conditions. Confidence is still low with this system. Highest chances for light precipitation appears to be over the northern Sacramento Valley, foothills, and mountains, with the latest NBM highlighting a 50-80% chance of precipitation greater than 0.25 inches for those areas Wednesday into Saturday AM, highest over the Sierra. Wednesday - Thursday are depicted as the wettest days so far with lingering mountain showers on Friday. NBM probabilities indicate the potential for thunderstorms each day from Wednesday to Friday around 10-25%, highest on Wednesday. Stay tuned for updates as the forecast continues to evolve. && .AVIATION... Widespread VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Winds less than 12 kts through 18Z Sunday. Over the mountains, gusts 15 to 20 kts at times after 06Z Sunday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

794 FXUS65 KMSO 051005 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 405 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Warming trend through Monday under high pressure - Strong, potentially damaging winds Tuesday: Confidence is growing for significant impacts across western Montana. High Wind Watches may be required. - Unsettled next weekend: Precipitation chances return Saturday and Sunday. Short-Term(Through Monday Night): High pressure remains the dominant feature. Expect highs in the 60s and 70s by Monday. This evening, an easterly wind will develop over the Divide and west. Gaps and channeled terrain could experienced 15 to 30 mph, which could create hazardous conditions for small craft on Swan Lake, McDonald Lake and Yellow Bay. Mid-Term(Tuesday through Thursday): The forecast has trended more aggressive regarding wind potential. A deep surface low over the Canadian Prairies will sweep a dynamic cold front through the Northern Rockies. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) is highlighting west-central and northwest Montana for anomalously high wind speeds, suggesting the potential for damaging gusts. The latest NBM 5.0 guidance and high-resolution WRF modeling show a sharp increase in probabilities for significant wind at select locations: - Probabilities of gusts greater than 52 mph: 70-85% for the west- central Bitterroot Valley, Anaconda, MacDonald Pass, I-15 south of Butte, and Hot Springs. Ashley Lake area sits at 80% with Salmon and Kila around 60%. - Probabilities of gusts greater than 63 mph: 50-72% from Victor to Hamilton and Anaconda; 47% for Stevensville. - Peak Potential: High-res WRF and NBM indicate a 50% chance for gusts exceeding 70 mph between Stevensville and Hamilton, specifically west of US-93. Given these trends, High Wind Watches may be necessary as the event nears. Behind the front, much cooler air settles in, with widespread sub-freezing morning lows expected Wednesday through Saturday. Long-term(Friday into next weekend): Brief ridging on Friday gives way to an increasingly active pattern. The NBM has introduced precipitation chances for Saturday, primarily south of Missoula. By Sunday, April 12th, the chance for widespread precipitation increases. Around 74% of the ensemble clusters depict an unsettled, long-wave trough pattern during this timeframe. && .AVIATION...Mid to high cloud cover will increase west to east this morning. A high pressure ridge will keep VFR conditions going through Monday. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

853 FXUS65 KBOI 051204 CCA AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Boise ID 604 AM MDT Sun Apr 5 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - High pressure will bring above normal temperatures and dry conditions early this week. - Slightly cooler temperatures and chances for precipitation return for the middle to end of the week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday Night/... Issued 340 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2026 High pressure will keep conditions dry with above normal temperatures through Tuesday. The upper level ridge axis will move overhead today, allowing high temperatures to increase 4-8 degrees from Saturday. Lower valleys will reach the lower 70s this afternoon. Otherwise, light easterly winds will develop this afternoon with high clouds moving overhead. Temperatures will warm a few more degrees on Monday as the ridge remains in place. A slight chance of showers will develop late Monday across eastern Oregon and the west-central Idaho mountains as a weak system approaches the area. On Tuesday, an upper level trough will move into the Pacific Northwest from the north. This system will bring breezy to gusty winds in the afternoon, especially across higher elevations where gusts will reach 25-40 mph. A cold front will move through late in the day, cooling high temperatures by around 5-10 degrees across the north, but arriving too late for cooling across southern areas. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Issued 340 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2026 Slightly cooler and more unsettled conditions return in the extended period. The trough to our north will exit to the east on Wednesday, with continued breezy conditions and 5-10 degrees of cooling from Tuesday. Moisture ahead of a closed low near the California coast will bring a 20-40% chance of showers to southern areas on Wednesday. This low will slowly move onshore to our south through the end of the week. This will bring a 10-40% chance of showers Thursday and Friday, highest along the Nevada border and in the central Idaho mountains. Mild southerly flow ahead of the low will bring another warming trend, with lower valley high temperatures forecast to approach 70 degrees by Friday and Saturday. Precipitation chances increase to 30-50% across the area Saturday and Sunday as the low moves inland. Ensembles favor a reinforcing trough moving into the Pacific Northwest on Sunday with unsettled conditions likely to continue. Precipitation will primarily fall as rain through the period with snow levels above 6-8kft MSL. && .AVIATION /12Z Sunday through Monday/... Issued 538 AM MDT SUN APR 5 2026 VFR with high clouds, except patchy fog this morning in w-central ID mtn valleys. Surface winds: NE-SE 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S 5-10 kt. KBOI...VFR with high clouds. Surface winds: SE 5-12 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....ST SHORT TERM...ST LONG TERM....ST

226 FXUS65 KLKN 050753 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1253 AM PDT Sun Apr 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Fair weather conditions this weekend with a gradual warming trend into early next week * Possible low pressure system late next week returns precipitation chances to northern and central NV && .UPDATE... Issued at 1251 AM PDT Sun Apr 5 2026 Forecast package remains on track this evening as no major updates are planned this morning. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Ridging over the SW CONUS will continue to keep a tight lid on the atmosphere over the Great Basin. Pleasant weather conditions and light winds will continue into early next week. As the ridge slowly propagates eastward it will shift the wind profile over the area to more southerly flow by Sunday and Monday. This will help a gradual warming trend return afternoon highs back to just above seasonal normals for early April. The ridge will deamplify as it moves eastward creating zonal flow over the Great Basin in between a ULT over western Canada and high pressure to the south over Mexico. A strengthening low pressure system off the CA coast will begin to influence the pattern over the state by mid week in the form of southwesterly flow and moisture advection. Moisture from the system to the west will interact with a weak shortwave traversing the broad long wave axis just to the areas north resulting in shower activity over the northern half of the state beginning Wednesday evening. At this time, model disagreement exists on exact timing, rainfall amounts, and potential for isolated convection Thursday and Friday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence exists in a ridge continuing fair weather and gradually warming temperatures into early next week. Low confidence exists in impacts from a low pressure late in the week, including timing and accumulations of precipitation. No major adjustments needed to 0-3 day grids at this time. && .AVIATION... Look for VFR conditions across all terminals over the next 24 hour period with light and variable winds. Chances for next weather activity return mid-week by Wednesday evening into Thursday. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...97