288 FXUS66 KSEW 210952 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 252 AM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A building upper level ridge will bring a return of warmer temperatures and continued dry conditions. The dry conditions will elevate fire weather concerns through midweek. The ridge will weaken late this week and a frontal system is expected to bring cooler temperatures and measurable precipitation to most of the area by the end of week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Onshore flow is weakening across the area early this morning. As a result, low cloud coverage will be less extensive across the interior and will burn back to the coast earlier than yesterday. This along with an upper ridge rebuilding back into the region will give high temperatures across Western Washington a nudge upward several degrees this afternoon. The warming trend kicks into high gear on Monday as 500 millibar heights approach the 580 decameter threshold and thermally induced low pressure at the surface expands into the region. Much like yesterday, most of the models keep the axis of the thermal trough over the interior with light onshore gradients. The 50th percentile NBM used in the forecast largely remains disconnected from this fact and continues to suggest warmer temperatures for the coast than what are likely to occur for both Monday and Tuesday. As for the interior, it`ll warm well into the 80s away from the water both Monday and Tuesday with some locations in the Southwest Interior getting into the lower 90s. Moderate HeatRisk is expected during this time for most of the interior lowlands and a Heat Advisory remains in effect beginning midday Monday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... The thermal trough shifts east of the Cascades by Tuesday night inducing a pretty good onshore push. As it often does, the NBM does not adequately weigh the cooling effect this will have and is likely around 10 degrees too warm for Seattle metro and other interior locations on Wednesday afternoon. The upper ridge flattens and weakens Wednesday into Thursday setting the stage for the previously advertised arrival of some precipitation at the conclusion of the week. Ensembles are in good agreement that most of the area will see some measurable precipitation by later Friday into Saturday as an upper trough and associated front reach the area. We`re likely to see several consecutive days of below normal temperatures as well...something we haven`t experienced in a couple weeks. 27 && .AVIATION... VFR across the majority of terminals, with the exception of the coast, where it is MVFR due to marine stratus. With a weaker onshore push, probabilities for MVFR cigs across the interior terminals has generally been trending downwards for the majority terminals, with current probabilities at 20% or less. However, guidance does highlight moderate confidence (50-65%) for MVFR cigs for the Kitsap Peninsula and Strait of Juan de Fuca between 10z-19z. In addition, there`s a chance for IFR and LIFR cigs at these two locations; IFR chances range between 40-60% and LIFR between 30-40%. There`s also a chance for IFR/LIFR cigs along the coast, but probabilities are trending lower around 20-35%. Improvement for the affected terminals is expected after 18z-19z. Another round of MVFR cigs possible tonight/Monday morning. Latest guidance suggests a 60-80% chance for the coastline after 03z and a 30-50% chance of IFR cigs after 07z. As for the interior terminals, current probabilities are 20% or less for MVFR cigs. Southerly surface winds this morning will then transition to the north after 17z-20z at 5-10 kt. KSEA...VFR early this morning. Today`s weaker onshore push does highlight the uncertainty of whether the marine stratus will make it to the terminal this morning. Chances for MVFR cigs continue to trend downwards, now sitting around 20% between 12z-18z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Southwesterly winds 4-7 kt this morning, then northwesterly after 18z-20z at 7-10 kt. Northeasterly winds this evening 5-8 kt. 29 && .MARINE... High pressure will strengthen over area waters through the middle of the week. This will result in diurnal pushes through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Latest guidance suggests the strongest push will be on Wednesday. There is increasing confidence (75-95%) for high-end small craft winds through the Strait. Additionally, probabilities for gales slightly increased to 25-40%. A weaker push of westerlies is expected on Thursday, with a 55-70% chance of small craft winds and 15-25% chance for gales. Unsettled conditions return late in the week and high pressure will weaken Thursday/Friday as a frontal system moves over area waters. High pressure looks to quickly rebuild behind the front. Combined seas below 10 feet through early next week. Seas will begin to build late Tuesday into Wednesday to 7-10 ft, decreasing below 10 ft by Thursday. In addition, seas may get steep at times late Sunday through Wednesday over some portions of the coastal waters with seas hovering around 7-9 ft and a dominant period around 7-8 seconds. 29 && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and dry weather returns in earnest for the first half of the week, with minimum relative humidity values dropping into the 20 percent range or less through Tuesday in the south interior and Cascade valleys. A thermal trough developing slightly inland from the immediate coast on Monday and Tuesday lends itself to a conditionally unstable atmosphere early in the week. Area fuels are getting much closer to critical levels as additional waves of hot and dry weather continues. Grasses are curing expeditiously and have already contributed to a number of roadside brush fires in recent days. Please continue to exercise caution with ignition sources. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Island County-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties- Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-San Juan County- Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills. Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area- Eastern Kitsap County-Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area. PZ...None. && $$

708 FXUS66 KPQR 211018 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 318 AM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures re-bound today as high pressure re- builds offshore. The hottest days of the week are expected on Monday and Tuesday with widespread Moderate HeatRisk and a 30-50% chance for Major HeatRisk across the Portland-Vancouver Metro Area and Columbia River Gorge. A Heat Advisory is in effect during these days. Fairly warm overnight for interior valleys will provide limited overnight relief, especially in urban areas. Temperatures cool down slightly Wednesday with increasing confidence for a cooler and wetter pattern by the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Saturday...Satellite imagery as of early Sunday morning depicts widespread marine stratus along the coast with some isolated areas of stratus across interior valleys. As daytime heating progresses today, we`ll see increased mixing and stratus breaking out by late morning. Temperatures begin to rebound today thanks to an upper-level ridge of high pressure amplifying over the eastern Pacific with building 500 mb heights overhead. Still, we`ll maintain some degree of onshore flow which keeps temperatures across western Oregon and southwest Washington more moderated than they otherwise would be. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s across interior valleys this afternoon. The hottest days over the next week are still expected Monday and Tuesday during which the vast majority of ensemble members show the ridge sliding right over- top the Pacific Northwest. There is high confidence (70-95% chance) for high temperatures exceeding 90 degrees F across the Willamette Valley and southwest Washington lowlands on Monday and Tuesday with a 5-15% chance for temperatures exceeding 100 degrees F from Salem to Portland-Vancouver on Monday, increasing to 30-50% on Tuesday. Overnight lows will also be warm (near 60 to mid 60s), especially for urban centers away from the coast. Overnight lows near or above 65 degrees would provide limited overnight relief from the heat. As a result, there will be widespread Moderate HeatRisk across much of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington during this period, with a 30-50% chance for Major HeatRisk across the Portland-Vancvouer Metro Area and Columbia River Gorge due to the warm overnight temperatures. A Heat Advisory remains in effect from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM Tuesday for much of the southwestern Washington lowlands through interior valleys of western Oregon. Make sure to practice heat safety, including staying hydrated, wearing light-colored and loose-fitted clothing, wearing sun protection, and taking frequent breaks from the heat. If possible, schedule outdoor plans during the early morning or late evening when temperatures will be less intense. All that said, there are a couple forecasting caveats worth highlighting that may keep temperatures for spots like the Portland metro closer to the low to mid 90s Monday and Tuesday compared to NBM 5.0 (and the current forecast) which projects highs in the mid to upper 90s to near 100 for Tuesday. First is a slight high bias occasionally observed in mid to long term temperature projections with the latest 5.0 version of the NBM and a feature we continue to assess here locally since this is only our second heatwave of the year leaning on NBM 5.0. We`re also monitoring the placement and strength of a thermal trough during this Mon/Tue period. Current deterministic guidance is trending the thermal trough further east now, anywhere between the I-5 corridor and the Cascade crest. This should help bring northerly-northwesterly flow into interior valleys and keep temperatures a few degrees cooler. If the thermal trough were to lie along the coast (which it doesn`t appear to be for this heat event), we would see increased easterly winds across the region which would make conditions much warmer. Given the more eastward placement of the trough now, the lack of strong offshore flow is supporting a temperature forecast slightly cooler on Monday, with highs peaking in the low to mid 90s across interior valleys. As we get closer to the start of this heat event, we`ll see if Tuesday ends up taking a downward trend as well. Either way, it`s going to be abnormally hot and people should make sure to practice heat safety. The ridge of high pressure overhead begins to gradually drift to our east on Wednesday although there still remains forecast uncertainty as to just how quickly it`ll progress. The vast majority of ensemble members kick the ridge axis well east of the Cascade crest-line by Wednesday which would allow for temperatures to decrease into the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior lowlands, if not further. The latest NBM still gives a 20-40% chance for highs exceeding 95 degrees Wednesday afternoon from Salem to the Portland-Vancouver Metro. Thursday through the start of the weekend, the majority of ensemble members are now showing a trough of low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest, returning cooler and wetter pattern. There still remains uncertainty with the exact timing, placement, and magnitude of the trough, and thus there is uncertainty with exact precipitation amounts. However, precipitation at the end of the week generally looks light and non-impactful at this point. -10/99 && .AVIATION...Northwest flow aloft continues with weak upper level troughing helping to deepen the marine layer along the coast. Marine stratus with MVFR CIGs is expected to persist at coastal terminals through at least 17-18z Sunday. CIGs are expected to lift with improvement to VFR becoming likely (80-90% chance) after 18z Sunday. Stratus may move across the Willamette Valley this morning, as chances for MVFR CIGs across inland terminals are around 30-50% at any given hour between 12-17z Sunday. Otherwise, expect predominately VFR conditions for inland terminals through the TAF period has high pressure builds. North to northwest winds continue, strongest during the afternoon/early evening with gusts up to 20 kt along the central Oregon coast. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with a few high clouds through the TAF period with a 30-50% chance for MVFR CIGs at any given hour between 11-16z Sunday. Light northwesterly winds this morning, increasing near 10 kt in the afternoon as pressure gradients tighten. -10/DH && .MARINE...High pressure offshore has weakened, resulting in weaker northwesterly winds under 20 kt today through Monday morning with steep and choppy seas around 5 to 7 ft. High pressure re-builds Monday afternoon into Tuesday, tightening pressure gradients and increasing north-northwesterly winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas generally remain around 6 to 7 ft Mon- Tue. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the outer waters (beyond 10 NM offshore) from late this afternoon to 5 AM Tuesday for the waters south of Cape Falcon. For the outer waters north of Cape Falcon, the Small Craft Advisory is in effect through 5 AM Monday. There is only a 10-20% chance for seas exceeding 7 feet at any given hour from Monday to Wednesday. -10 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ108>123. WA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for WAZ204>210. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ271. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ272. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

190 FXUS66 KMFR 211225 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 525 AM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .SHORT TERM... Key Points: * Temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal today. * Ridging takes control early this week, with 90s/low 100s forecast Monday and Tuesday. * A Heat Advisory will be in effect Monday and Tuesday in west side valleys for the heat. Satellite has stratus reaching Brookings and also into Coos County and the Coquille Valley. This morning will be the coolest for the next several days with upper 40s and low 50s west and 30s to 40s east. The warmup begins this afternoon with a ridge building nearby, and highs are forecast to reach the 80s in most inland spots, even near Brookings with a thermal trough in the area. More locations in the Rogue Valley have the best chance to see 90 degrees today. A Heat Advisory will be in effect starting 11 AM Monday and continuing through 11 PM Tuesday for west side valleys. Monday is the day with the higher heat risk as highs are forecast to be warmest in the 95-100 degree range for west valleys. However, Tuesday will still be a concern as lows will begin in the 50s and still warm to the 90s in the afternoon. Please see NPWMFR for more details. .LONG TERM...With the ridge moving eastward and flattening midweek and beyond, a cooling trend is forecast into next weekend. A dry front looks to pass over the area Wednesday, which would bring elevated winds over higher terrain and east of the Cascades. Upper flow with a slight southwest orientation may support a stray thunderstorm or two east of the Cascades on Wednesday afternoon/evening, but this seems like a slight possibility at best in the current forecast. Long-term guidance generally agrees on a second front reaching the coast between Thursday afternoon and Friday morning. This front may bring some light precipitation, although there`s disagreement on if that rainfall will be limited to the coast and Cascades or if it will fall across the west side. Disagreement continues into next weekend. In GFS imagery, zonal to slightly northwest flow would limit additional precipitation and keep temperatures near or just below seasonal norms. The ECMWF deterministic outcome brings a low presure system down over the area, which would bring additional light rainfall across the area on Saturday and Sunday. ECMWF meteograms show good confidence in the low pressure outcome, while the GFS is more divided in its expectations of weekend rainfall. -TAD && .AVIATION...21/12Z TAFs...Onshore flow has produced MVFR/IFR ceilings and visibilities in marine fog and low stratus along the coast and into the coastal valleys, including at North Bend. Lower flight conditions may also make it into the Umpqua Basin, potentially all the way to Roseburg, by sunrise. Conditions should clear to VFR through the morning, with VFR expected into Sunday evening. Beginning around 04Z-06Z this evening, IFR/LIFR stratus and fog is expected to return to the coast, except VFR is likely to persist overnight from Cape Blanco to Gold Beach. && .MARINE...Updated 300 AM PDT Sunday, June 21, 2026...North winds will continue to strengthen through Monday evening. The result will be strong northerly winds and very steep seas south of Cape Blanco while steep seas remain across the outer portion of the northern waters. There may be isolated areas of gale force gusts this afternoon through Monday evening for areas south of Cape Blanco. A pattern of northerly winds is likely to continue through mid-week. Conditions are likely to briefly improve Thursday through Friday morning. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ023>026. CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ080>082. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ356-376. && $$

939 FXUS66 KEKA 210721 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1221 AM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will begin to regain control of the area. Temperatures rebound today with warmer and drier conditions likely early to mid this coming week. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend for the interior returns today and will continue into next week. - Troughing to the north of the area on Tuesday could bring additional chances of interior thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure more firmly sets in over Northwest California today. High temperatures rise into the high 80s and 90s over interior areas. Temperatures continue to rise into early this coming week with triple digits possible for the warmest valleys by Monday. This warming trend is likely to continue through at least mid week. Troughing to the north of the area on Tuesday could bring additional chances of interior thunderstorms. Confidence is not high as instability and moisture currently look meager, but this will need to be watched. Otherwise, dry and warm interior conditions are likely for much of this coming week week. JB && .AVIATION...MVFR to IFR/LIFR stratus will continue to fill in along the coast affecting the coastal terminals. Stratus will be more shallow early this morning, keeping lower ceilings/visibilities closer to the coast. There could be some clearing this afternoon/evening before stratus restrengthens overnight tonight. Stratus is not expected to move up the Russian River Valley into KUKI this morning. && .MARINE...Northerly winds gradually increase today with near-gale force gusts likely in the lee of Cape Mendocino and Cape Blanco by this afternoon. Seas that are currently dominated by a diminishing mid period NW swell of around 5 to 7 ft will become more dominated by steep wind waves. Steep wind waves may propagate into the inner waters too, even as winds nearshore remain light. Winds diminish Monday into Tuesday, especially nearshore, but stronger winds return mid to late next week. JB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 3 AM PDT Monday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

492 FXUS66 KMTR 211220 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 520 AM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 AM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 - Hazardous beach conditions with increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents continue through the extended forecast - Temperatures will increase through the middle of the week - Moderate HeatRisk concerns return midweek across the interior && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1230 AM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 (Today and tonight) Satellite imagery reveals stratus gradually expanding back across the area early this morning, although it is less extensive than the previous couple of nights at this time. Expect stratus to fill in along the coast and inland valleys by sunrise, then retreat back to the coast by late morning. The marine layer will compress further today as upper troughing along the coast weakens. This should keep more clouds along the coast this afternoon compared to the clearing experienced Saturday. Expect warmer temperatures in most areas this afternoon, especially across the interior which will warm as much as 5-10 degrees from Saturday. Highs will increase a few degrees along SF Bay shoreline, with little change right along the coast. This will place highs in the upper 50s to around 70 near the coast, with mid 70s to 80s in the interior, and the warmest spots reaching 90 degrees. Expect typical onshore breezes this afternoon and evening, with gusts 15-30 mph, strongest in gaps/passes. The marine layer will be around 1000-1500 feet deep tonight. This will allow low clouds to move back into inland valleys. The more compressed marine layer may allow patchy fog to develop along the coast and in wind-sheltered valleys. We continue to highlight a long-period southerly swell will bring a risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through Wednesday. If heading to the coast, stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! For more information, see the BEACHES section. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1230 AM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 (Monday through Saturday) A building upper level ridge will keep the marine layer compressed and continue a warming trend through the middle of the week. Highs will warm a few degrees each day, reaching their peak on Wednesday. However, highs Tuesday and Thursday will also be quite warm and within a couple degrees of Wednesday`s readings. Marine influence should limit warming along the coast and bays with highs in the 60s and 70s, but this will still be several degrees warmer than today. Across the interior, highs will reach the 80s and 90s. Hot temperatures, especially inland, will be accompanied by pockets of Moderate HeatRisk with increased heat impacts. The trend still holds from the previous discussion that coverage of Moderate HeatRisk looks too limited for a Heat Advisory. However, hot temperatures may produce a risk for heat-related illnesses amongst sensitive populations, including children, the elderly, pregnant women, people with chronic illnesses, and people who work or live outdoors without access to adequate cooling or hydration. Latest ensemble guidance continues the trend of keeping moisture/instability rotating around the ridge to our east. This means thunderstorms next week are highly unlikely, but any potential will continue to be monitored. Late this week, temperatures trend cooler as an upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. It will remain dry in our area, but winds may become breezy as this system moves by to the north. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 448 AM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Cigs have lowered this morning near 700-1400ft with some areas seeing cigs below 500ft and vis reductions 4-6sm. Inland sites clearing later this morning near 17-19z with moderate to high confidence. Intermittent clearing closer to the coast, but some sites like KHAF and KMRY may not clear at all. Lower cigs returning after 02z Monday with less inland extent than this morning. Vicinity of SFO...MVFR locally IFR conditions until ~ 18Z this morning, improving to VFR thereafter. Stratus MVFR locally IFR returning after 04z Mon with moderate confidence on timing and cig heights. West wind 15 to 25 knots by 21z Sunday afternoon, easing to near 10 knots mid Sunday evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Better chance of intermittent BKN cigs occurring through the afternoon hours. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...VFR conditions occurring by 17-18z this morning. NW/W winds increasing after 21z 15-25 kts. Low clouds near 800-1200ft returning to OAK near 04z-05z Monday with moderate confidence. Lower confidence on cigs returning to SJC Monday morning. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus /MVFR/ continuing through the morning hours. Low to moderate confidence in any afternoon clearing near the immediate coast (MRY). Moderate to high confidence in MVFR cigs pushing inland after 02z Mon, becoming locally IFR after 05z Mon. Onshore winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 843 PM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Fresh to strong winds in the northern outer waters now through early Monday morning, leading to hazardous conditions for small craft. Otherwise, across the inner and outer waters winds will remain light to moderate. Long period southwest swell continues through the forecast period. && .BEACHES... Issued at 308 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist for the remainder of the weekend, and increase to 17 to 19 seconds by the middle of the upcoming work week as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through Wednesday afternoon. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tangen LONG TERM....Tangen AVIATION...APR MARINE...Malarkey Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

403 FXUS66 KOTX 211153 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 453 AM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures and dry conditions continue. Tuesday and Wednesday will be our warmest days over the next week with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. - Locally breezy winds will persist through Sunday down the Okanogan Valley and across Central WA. - Weather changes arrive late next week with cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and a chance of showers for next weekend. && .SYNOPSIS... A warm and dry pattern will last into mid-week as a ridge of high pressure shifts inland over the region. Locally breezy winds will persist into Sunday across Central WA. The pattern shifts toward the end of the week and into next weekend as a trough ushers in cooler temperatures and a chance of showers. && .DISCUSSION... Sunday: Breezy north/northwesterly winds will linger into Sunday down the Okanogan Valley and across Central Washington as a ridge of high pressure nudges onshore, placing the region in a northerly flow pattern. The breezy winds combined with humidity values dropping into the teens Sunday afternoon will result in continued elevated fire weather conditions. Monday through Wednesday: The ridge axis continues to shift east over the region Monday through Wednesday, allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 80s to mid 90s by mid week. Late Tuesday into Wednesday, weak impulses rippling through the ridge will need to be monitored. The NBM continues to keep the forecast dry, but an isolated shower or thunderstorm isn`t outside the realm of possibility as these disturbances move through an unstable atmosphere with steep lapse rates. Thursday through Saturday: Ensembles continue to hone in on a significant pattern change to close out the week with nearly 100% of model clusters now depicting an upper level trough dropping down into the region by next weekend. Differences remain on the timing and strength of this trough, but there is high confidence on a shift to a troughing pattern of some sort. Thursday will likely stay warm ahead of the trough with high temperatures only 3-5 degrees cooler than Wednesday. Heading into Friday, there is significant spread in the temperature forecast due to uncertainty surrounding the timing of the trough`s arrival. By Saturday, most models show a nearly 20 degree drop in temperatures compared to the upper 80s to mid 90s forecast on Wednesday! The current temperature forecast for Saturday has highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Gusty winds are inevitable with such a dramatic cooldown, so expect a windy day or two toward the end of the week. In addition to cooler temperatures and gusty winds, this system will also bring chances for showers and thunderstorms. Stay tuned for more info in the coming days! /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs: VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with passing mid and high clouds. Breezy north winds will continue down the Okanogan Valley and into the western Columbia Basin today with winds gusting up to 15-25 kt. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast period. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 83 54 84 53 86 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 80 52 82 53 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 78 49 81 50 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 86 56 89 56 93 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 82 44 85 49 87 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 79 51 80 54 83 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 77 52 80 51 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 87 58 89 57 92 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 86 61 89 64 91 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 85 56 88 59 91 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

795 FXUS66 KPDT 211151 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 451 AM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Heat Risk threat builds-up Monday through Wednesday as a ridge pushes in the area. - Elevated fire weather conditions continue through the week with dry air lingering and locally breezy winds developing. - Wetter pattern possible by the end of the week, bringing relief from the heat. && .DISCUSSION... Today: Satellite and radar both indicate dry conditions prevailing through the region as a weak shortwave pushes out of the region and a ridge begins to move in. As the shortwave pushes off, pressure gradients will not be as tight compared to yesterday and thus winds will not be as breezy today as they were yesterday. High temps across the lower elevation will be slightly cooler compared to yesterday with temperatures reaching the mid to upper 80s, with isolated areas reaching the low 90s (50-70% chance). Clear conditions will persist with an abundance of dry air in the mid-level, keeping things dry. Monday through Wednesday: Guidance is in great agreement that the ridge situated just off-shore will continue to push into the area with the ridge axis over the area sometime late Monday night to Tuesday morning, persisting through Wednesday morning. A warming trend as a result will last through the mid-week with the hottest days looking to be Tuesday and Wednesday. High temperatures have slightly downtrended again over the last 24-hours, with NBM advertising high temperatures from 94-98 in the Columbia Basin, 92-97 in the Foothills, and 89-93 in Central Oregon. NBM v5.0 has all but eliminated the possibility of triple digits on Tuesday with isolated pockets in the Columbia Basin reaching 0-5%, with Wednesday looking slightly higher at 0-10%. For reference, some areas in the region were advertising values up-to 20% for triple digits to occur. Regardless, widespread moderate Heat Risk will develop Tuesday and Wednesday (70-90% chance). The Dalles has a moderate to high confidence (60-80% chance) of major Heat Risk (value of `3`) on Tuesday, thus a Heat Advisory has been issued. Thursday: Critical fire weather conditions are possible with relative humidities in the 9-14% range and developing breezy winds with an oncoming trough occur. Pressure gradients will tighten as a trough moves in the area, but will not benefit from the more moist air until widespread breezy winds occur (40-60% chance). Given this, Thursday will need to be monitored for potential critical fire weather conditions for all declared zones. Friday through the weekend: Guidance is hinting of slightly unsettled weather to move back in the picture by the weekend, increasing chances of rain in the mountain ranges (confidence: 40-60% chance). A relief from the heat and dry air from the oncoming moisture transportation will be possible with the weather system. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... VFR conditions prevail with light and variable winds through the rest of the TAF period. No CIG or VIS issues expected. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 84 52 88 53 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 85 58 89 58 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 89 56 92 57 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 88 57 90 60 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 87 55 91 56 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 84 54 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 83 45 88 52 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 81 48 85 50 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 84 45 89 49 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 88 59 93 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for WAZ024. OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Monday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ041. && $$ DISCUSSION...95 AVIATION...95

663 FXUS65 KREV 210750 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1250 AM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Seasonal temperatures and dry conditions prevail across the area for the first day of Astronomical Summer. * Above average temperatures, and widespread moderate HeatRisk starting Monday through at least Thursday for western NV, with typical afternoon breezes. * Model ensembles are showing a ridge breakdown the end of the week, with an increase in winds and lower temperatures. && .DISCUSSION... * Today we`ll have zonal flow over the region. This will translate into a sunny, quiet weather day with seasonal temperatures and typical westerly winds this afternoon. Otherwise, it`s a great day to be outdoors enjoying the first day of astronomical summer! * For the upcoming work week, ensembles all show a weak upper level ridge setting up over the western US. As a result, temperatures will once again increase back into the mid to upper 90s for western NV, eastern Lassen, and the lower elevations in Mono County from Monday through at least Thursday. This will result in several days of widespread moderate, to localized Major HeatRisk. Temperatures this week for the eastern Sierra communities will end up mostly in the 80s. * By Friday, ensembles are showing a breakdown of the upper ridge as another trough moves into the western US. While details on the exact path and strength of this trough are still low, it`s worth noting that blended guidance is showing increasing winds throughout the region as well as 10-15% chances for showers near the Oregon border. This will result in fire weather concerns, as well as impacts to aviation and outdoor recreation. -McKellar && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue at all western NV and Sierra terminals. Typical west winds return in the afternoon to early evening with sustained 10-15 kts with gusts of 20-25 kts, then light and VRB overnight in the morning. There is a low chance for patchy for for KTRK overnight. -McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

205 FXUS66 KSTO 201845 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1145 AM PDT Sat Jun 20 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued elevated fire weather concerns over Shasta County from thunderstorms with possible new fire starts from lightning until this evening. - Warming trend today into next week with minor to moderate HeatRisk. && .DISCUSSION... Conditions have quieted since yesterday with fairly clear skies across the Valley outside of lingering cloud cover the Coast Range and western Shasta County as of mid-Saturday morning. We can expect another round of isolated thunderstorms but more confined to northern Shasta County (15-25% chance) and across the higher surrounding terrain and tracking eastward. Best chances for development will be from 1 PM to 7 PM with possible new fire starts from lightning, brief heavy rains, small hail, and gusty outflow winds all possible from any formed thunderstorms. Afterwards, a warming and drying trend dominates the forecast heading into next week as ridging builds over the Pacific NW. By early next week we return to Valley highs in the 90s to low 100s with Min RH`s in the upper teens to 20s outside the immediate Delta region. Minor HeatRisk continues throughout Sunday before transitioning to patchy Moderate HeatRisk in the Valley early next week. We will continue to monitor fire weather conditions and watch for any changes as we continue throughout the week. Lastly, we will see a daily Delta Breeze with gusts up to 20-30 MPH each day, strongest in the afternoons. Please continue to monitor the forecast and have multiple ways to receive notifications. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Isolated showers or thunderstorms around RDD from around 22z to 03z Sunday. Otherwise, areas are seeing SKC to FEW cloud coverage. Winds from the Delta will increase for the Sacramento sites this evening and into the early overnight, with gusts up to 20-25kts. Winds overnight go light and variable for the sites. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

030 FXUS65 KMSO 211003 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 403 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and thunderstorms along the Divide this afternoon. - Warming trend Tuesday through Thursday - Cooler and showery conditions expected next weekend A low pressure system over Alberta will cause isolated and scattered showers and thunderstorms today along the Continental Divide, especially around Glacier National Park. This low will be slowly moving off to the east, so the latest guidance is indicating another round of convection over the same area on Monday afternoon and evening. Then a ridge of high pressure will be building over the region Tuesday through Thursday. This ridge will bring a warming and drying trend over the Northern Rockies for a few days. Temperatures will well above seasonal averages by Thursday as readings will be in the upper 80s to low 90s for most valley locations and triple digits for the Riggins area. The long term models are showing a large low pressure system moving into the Pacific Northwest by next weekend causing significant cooling with widespread precipitation. Temperatures by Saturday are anticipated to be around 10 degrees below seasonal normals. && .AVIATION...A low pressure system over Alberta will cause mid to high levels clouds to stream over northwest Montana along with scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially near the Continental Divide. KGPI has the best potential for nearby showers this afternoon and evening. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

855 FXUS65 KBOI 211217 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 617 AM MDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Daytime temperatures remaining near normal through Sunday, then warming to around 10 degrees above normal Tuesday through Thursday. - Breezy afternoons over the next several days. - Cooler and unsettled conditions possible next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday Night/... Issued 357 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026 An upper level trough will remain over Alberta over the next several days with west-northwest flow on Sunday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will form over the central ID mountains and southern Twin Falls County along the NV border this afternoon. Breezy west-northwest winds this afternoon and again on Monday afternoon. The system over Alberta will slowly move east and upper level ridging will bring warmer temperatures by Tuesday with temperatures warming to around 10 degrees above normal. Subtropical moisture will begin to get injected into the upper level ridge after Tuesday, but westerly flow will keep the deeper moisture to the south and east of our area. && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... Issued 357 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026 Dry and warm conditions continue into Thursday, with subtropical moisture remaining south and east of the area. Some showers and thunderstorms may form in the central ID mountains and south along the NV border Thursday afternoon. An upper level trough from the Gulf of Alaska will move southeast into the Pacific NW late Thursday. A cold front moves through southeast OR and southwest ID on Friday with cooler and unsettled conditions possible Saturday and Sunday. Still significant model differences in the positioning of this trough, but wetting rains possible next weekend and much cooler temperatures as much as 10-20 degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /12Z Sunday through Monday/... Issued 615 AM MDT SUN JUN 21 2026 VFR. Patchy fog in the central ID mountains this morning, diminishing by mid morning. Surface winds: variable 10kt or less this morning, becoming W-NW 5-15kt in the afternoon, strongest near KTWF KJER. Winds aloft at 10kft: westerly 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. SE 5kt this morning, shifting to NW 5-15kt this afternoon. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....KA SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....KA

497 FXUS65 KLKN 210921 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 221 AM PDT Sun Jun 21 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible across the extreme northern portions of Elko and northeastern portions of White Pine county later this afternoon * Skies will be mostly sunny at all other locations * Warming temperatures and drier conditions expected today through the upcoming week with highs climbing back into the 90s for all locations && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies are mostly clear at this time with dry and quiet conditions. For today, expect mostly sunny conditions across much of northern and central Nevada this afternoon. Marginal instability and CAPE is noted around the Jarbidge wilderness and northeastern White Pine county this afternoon and so adjusted PoPs and Wx slightly to include isolated thunderstorms. Otherwise, not too much going on with highs in the mid to upper 80s and winds less than 20 mph. Look for quiet and dry conditions tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s. Monday through Wednesday, heights are expected to rise during this time as the high pressure system over the desert southwest builds across the region. This will lead to warming afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s by mid-week. HeatRisk is only showing minor levels at this time though people who are heat sensitive may have minor issues. Winds will be fairly light with the typical afternoon breezes. Overnight lows will provide some relief as many areas will see readings in the 50s. Thursday through the upcoming weekend, models are showing the upper ridge maintaining position around northern Mexico. This may bring limited mid-level moisture to portions of central and east- central Nevada by Thursday as southwest flow dominates. This could bring isolated dry thunderstorms to east-central Nevada that will need to be watched. Cooling back into the 80s is possible by the weekend as well. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Made minor changes to the NBM for the afternoon period, adding isolated thunder to Jarbidge and NE White Pine later this afternoon. Confidence is high with warming temperatures and dry conditions through mid-week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected across all terminals for the next 24 hour period. Winds will be light though gusts to 20KT are possible this afternoon, especially across the central terminals KELY and KTPH. && .FIRE WEATHER... An isolated shower or thunderstorm (probability ten percent) expected along the far northern portions of zones 469 and 470, and also across the far northeast corner of 425. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny skies through mid-week with high temperatures warming once again into the mid to upper 90s. Another shot of isolated thunderstorms is possible Wednesday and Thursday afternoon but probability remains at around ten to fifteen percent at this time, mainly over east-central Nevada. Winds will be occasionally breezy though no fire weather concerns are noted at this time. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86