030 FXUS66 KSEW 152238 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 238 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A stationary front will remain draped over western Washington through the weekend, maintaining areas of showers and drizzle at times through Monday. A trough and front will also pass through Monday, with drier and cooler conditions behind the front. More precipitation is expected towards the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Latest surface analysis shows a stationary front draped over western WA this afternoon, with the wind pattern clearing showing the front extending to the coastline (as winds are split to the north and south of the front in terms of direction). The radar shows a boundary of light showers/drizzle continue over Seattle up to Mt. Vernon this afternoon. More showers are also ongoing in the Cascades, but remain very light in nature. Given the abundance of low level moisture being trapped towards the surface, expect areas of mist and patchy fog going into Sunday morning (especially as shower activity diminishes from the stationary front going into tonight). Another trough/weak cold front will pass through the area Sunday into Monday. This will increase shower chances going into the morning/afternoon. High-resolution models have a few bands/lines of rain moving through during the day (from the coast, inland towards the Cascades). Rain rates with these bands are not expected to exceed several hundredths of an inch an hour (couple spots in the Cascades might see up to 0.10"/hr). The precipitation chances will drop going into Monday (except for the Cascades) as cold air begins to sink in behind the trough/front. Expect snow levels to fall from 7,000-8,000 ft this weekend down to below 4,000 ft by Monday night. Snow accumulations will remain light at higher elevations with these systems through the weekend (no snow accumulations are expected at the passes). A couple locations in the south interior may see lows dip below 40 Monday night/Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The trough from Monday is expected to dig southward into Tuesday (with an upper level low eventually cutting off from the main flow/trough system in British COlumbia). The ensembles now favor a bit of a ridge going into Wednesday, which will favor drier conditions going into Tuesday and Wednesday. This might also allow for a few peaks of sun through the clouds during these days as well. Another trough will spin through the region the second half of the the week from an upper level low spinning off the coast of B.C.. The forecasted precipitation dropped considerably with this system (given that models are a bit more split as to how strong/far the trough/low will dig over our area). Nevertheless, the shower chances remain at 40-60% through the end of the week, with the coast seeing up to an 80% chance Wednesday afternoon. Temperatures will remain a touch cooler with highs only reaching the upper 40s/low 50s, and lows dipping into the upper 30s/low 40s. HPR && .AVIATION... Westerly flow aloft becoming southwesterly tonight as upper level trough digs south well offshore. Light flow in the lower levels through Sunday afternoon with stationary front dissipating over the interior overnight. IFR/LIFR ceilings into Sunday afternoon. Areas of visibility 1-3sm in light rain or drizzle until 12z. KSEA...Ceilings lowering to 300 to 800 feet by 03z with visibility 1-3sm in light precipitation or fog until 18z Sunday. Slight improvement Sunday afternoon back up to MVFR ceilings with no visibility restrictions. Light winds. Felton && .MARINE... A weak surface low will track across the offshore waters into Northern Vancouver Island Sunday into Sunday night while an associated front weakens and moves onshore Sunday evening. A surface ridge will rebuild across the waters Monday into Tuesday before shifting east of the area on Wednesday. A rapidly weakening frontal system will reach the waters Wednesday night into Thursday. Coastal seas will briefly build to 10 feet or higher Sunday afternoon into Sunday night before subsiding again. Double digit seas return late in the week as a result of a strong area of low pressure around 140 W longitude. 27 && .HYDROLOGY... The Snoqualmie at Carnation will crest around a foot short of flood stage late this afternoon/early this evening. All other rivers will remain at or below action stage. A weak front will produce non- hydrologically significant rainfall late Sunday into Monday. Drier conditions will return mid-week. Another weakening front will arrive late Wednesday or Thursday, but is again not expected to produce rainfall of any significance. 27 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4 AM PST Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 4 AM PST Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$

728 FXUS66 KPQR 151809 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1009 AM PST Sat Nov 15 2025 .UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION... .SYNOPSIS...A relatively drier pattern with upper-level ridging atop a closed upper low over California will give way to a progressive and active pattern early next week. Repeated systems will bring cooler temperatures along with multiple chances for lowland rain and mountain snow to the region. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Tonight...The latest water vapor satellite imagery features a prominent cutoff upper low centered off the California coast while nearly zonal flow continues overhead locally. Over the next 24 hours, upper-level ridging will begin to build east of the Cascades, continuing to shift eastward in tandem with the closed low slowly meandering inland over California and Nevada. As ridging amplifies inland, lingering light rain showers will continue to dissipate, with the northern Oregon coast and Coast Range, southern Washington coast, Willapa Hills, and the northern Oregon and southern Washington Cascades remaining the most likely to see drizzle or a brief rain shower through midday. Otherwise, dry conditions are favored through tonight with overcast skies trending clearer, especially from the southern Willamette Valley north and west across the Cascades and Cascade foothills up to the Columbia Gorge through this afternoon. Areas which see morning rain and where sufficient clearing develops may be prone to patchy fog overnight, most likely within sheltered Coast Range valleys. Expect above-normal temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s today and overnight lows largely in the 40s tonight. -36 .LONG TERM...Sunday through Friday...As upper-level ridging pushes farther to the east through the middle of next week, a progressive and active pattern takes hold in the Northwest. An initial deep but narrow trough will approach the coast Sunday into Monday, bringing a return of widespread rainfall chances to the region by Sunday afternoon. There remains some uncertainty around the evolution of this trough; the majority of global ensemble members depict its development similar to the current pattern, namely the flow may pinch the bottom of the trough into a cutoff low affecting California while the energy associated with the remaining weakened rump trough moves into the Pacific Northwest, or the minority of members suggest it could maintain a more coherent single elongated trough structure. Ultimately, the precipitation forecast may be the most sensitive to the details of the flow evolution, but both scenarios end with much cooler air aloft advecting into the region by Monday. With cooler air in place, temperatures will drop toward more seasonable values during the workweek with daytime highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s and overnight lows in the mid 30s to low 40s. As showers continue while troughing exits eastward through Tuesday night, snow levels dropping to 3500-4500 ft could see light accumulations at pass-level in the Cascades where snowfall amounts remain very light through Tuesday. With less than a 10% chance of more impactful amounts near 6 inches at area passes, only minimal travel impacts are anticipated. Following a brief dry stretch on Wednesday as narrow upper-level ridging transits the region, another cutoff low along the coast could see additional precipitation chances from Wednesday night through Thursday night. Snow levels remaining around 4000-4500 ft could again see pass-level accumulations, although the chances of 6 inches from 4 AM Wednesday through 4 AM Friday at area passes remain only 10-20%. -36 && .AVIATION...This morning the region continues to see a mix of flying conditions with VFR/MVFR to locally IFR (KTTD) at inland terminals, and prevailing IFR conditions along the coast. Light rain and mist/drizzle will gradually decrease south to north as the morning goes on with dry weather returning for the afternoon hours. Expect flight conditions to follow this trend as well at inland terminals as generally MVFR CIGs improve back to VFR 20-22z Sat, although there is still a 15-35% chance we hold onto widespread MVFR beyond this point Portland Metro. At least visible satellite looks promising with partial clearing beginning to take place across the southern Willamette Valley - a transition in-line with 12z high-res model guidance. However at the coast IFR conditions are favored through the TAF period outside of the Newport area where clearing likely yields a switch to MVFR CIGs this afternoon. Come the evening and overnight hours the focus switches to fog formation which will be tied to the prevalence of clearing. Greater clearing of cloud cover would yield an environment more conducive to dense fog, especially in the Central/South Willamette Valley with widespread LIFR impacts, while more persistent low stratus at 2.5-3kft into the evening would trend CIGs more MVFR/IFR. Given the latest guidance and observational trends, confidence continues to grown for this fog scenario playing out at least at KEUG and KSLE with a 70-80% chance for <0.5 mile VIS by 10-12z Sun at these sites. Slightly lower confidence further north into the Portland Metro at this point with these probabilities closer to 40-50% - something to watch. Winds remain fairly light today, generally less than 10 knots. KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR cigs prevail this morning with intermittent light rain and mist/drizzle through 19-21z after which point conditions likely begin to slowly improve to low-end VFR. East-southeast winds at 5-10 kt this morning will ease below 5 kt by this afternoon into the evening. Chances (40-50%) for further vis restrictions due to fog increasing 08-12z Sun, peaking in likelihood 14-18z Sunday morning. -99 && .MARINE...Seas are expected to persist at 6-8 ft through the weekend while southerly winds ease below 10 kt by this afternoon. Another frontal system traverses the waters Sunday into Monday, bringing increased southwesterly winds with gusts to 20 kt before turning out of the northwest. Behind the front, a building westerly swell will increase wave heights to 13-15 ft by Monday morning, before falling below 10 ft again on Tuesday. Should this forecast remain on track, an additional round of Small Craft Advisories will be needed across the waters for this event. Expect a fairly active weather pattern to continue through the rest of the week as yet another system may bring hazardous winds and seas later in the week, with increasing chances for seas at or above 15 ft Thursday into Friday. -36/99 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

711 FXUS66 KMFR 152229 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 229 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025 .DISCUSSION...An upper trough remains over the area, with a cutoff low lingering to the south. The position of the trough is keeping temperatures near seasonal levels today. Cloud cover will start to increase this afternoon and evening as the low weakens and moves to the northeast. This motion looks to bring some rainfall to east side counties and southern Siskiyou County early Sunday morning, although amounts should be unimpactful. An approaching cold front will bring gusty southerly winds to the Shasta Valley and east side terrain on Sunday morning and afternoon, with forecast gusts safely short of Advisory speeds. Rainfall reaches the Oregon coast late Sunday morning, with showers moving across the area through the afternoon and possibly continuing through Monday. Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible for Curry County and the Mount Shasta region, with 1 to 2 inches possible in these areas. This may impact visibilities while traveling along I-5 or Highways 89 or 101, so extra caution may be necessary on these roadways. Other areas will see lower amounts, although moderate showers may periodically form inland. Snow levels on Sunday remain at 7000-8000 feet, then drop to 4000- 5000 feet on Monday as the cold air mass moves over the area. By this time, most of the precipitation will have fallen so hazardous snowfall is not expected. Cascades passes and Sawyers Bar Road west of Etna may see some light snow showers, but less than an inch of total snowfall is expected at these elevations. Road warmth and lingering water from rainfall should both work to prevent any accumulation, but localized slick conditions may be present. The cold air mass behind the front may linger over the area to start next week. Daytime highs will stay near seasonal norms, with low to mid 50s for west side valleys and slightly warmer along the coast. To the east, highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 40s and cooler over terrain. Overnight lows will drop on Monday night into Tuesday and Tuesday night into Wednesday. To the east, lows in the low to mid 20s will be possible for most of the area with high teens possible near Chemult and in the Christmas Valley area. To the west, lows along the coast say in the low 40s to high 30s, but some valleys may see temperatures in the low 30s by Tuesday night. This would bring frost/freeze concerns to the Rogue, Applegate, and Illinois valleys. The Umpqua Valley may see some frost conditions, but freezing temperatures are not expected for that area. Uncertainty remains for expectations about the Wednesday-Thursday activity. While both ECMWF and GFS models are both show a more compact low moving south parallel to the coast, ECMWF ensemble members generally move the low inland while GFS members keep the low over the Pacific. While these possibilities lead to very different outcomes, the chances of overall impactful conditions trend lower with a more compact system. Precipitation amounts for both models have trended down. Current snow levels are at 4500-6000 feet on Wednesday and Thursday, which would keep snow accumulation to the higher peaks and ridgelines. Periods of gusty southerly winds may develop, but indications of hazardous winds are not present in current guidance. Of course, with both models varying so much for Wednesday-Thursday, everything beyond diverges that much more. GFS deterministic imagery shows flow over a Pacific high being generally uneventful, while the ECMWF keeps a more active (but not obviously hazardous) pattern into the long term. -TAD && .AVIATION...15/18Z TAFs...VFR levels are generally present across northern California and southern Oregon, with fog lingering in some westernmost valleys. With mild weather expected today, VFR levels are expected to continue through the evening. Guidance shows slight chances for fog to develop in the Coquille Basin near North Bend and in the Umpqua Valley over Roseburg, but development over Medford and Klamath Falls is less likely. Any layers that develop tonight or late Sunday morning should clear out before Sunday afternoon. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 230 PM PST Saturday, November 15, 2025...Sub- advisory winds and seas are expected to persist through at least early Sunday. Another system approaches the region Sunday into Monday, bringing the return of increased southerly winds Sunday afternoon. This increase in south winds will be brief, with winds quickly shifting to northwest and becoming stronger Sunday evening into Sunday night Northwest swell increases as well, peaking in the 13 to 16 ft range at around 13 seconds. This increase in swell combined with wind driven seas will bring conditions hazardous to smaller crafts through Monday evening. The next system could approach on Thursday, although confidence is low where the next storm system will show up. There is a 25% chance to see some very strong southerly winds around the Thursday time frame if a stronger low sets up away from the Oregon coastline. Finally, a high long period swell will likely move into the waters beyond Thursday. Swell heights will likely exceed 15 feet with a period of around 15 seconds. -Smith && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 1 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$ TAD/CZS

201 FXUS66 KEKA 152228 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 228 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS...The break in wet weather and above average temperatures is coming to an end. Rain chances increase in Lake, Mendocino, and Trinity this evening and overnight. More widespread rain and gusty winds are forecast Sunday into Monday. An extended period of cold overnight lows with widespread frost and interior freezing temperatures will begin overnight Monday. && .DISCUSSION...A mostly dry day is expected until this evening, when a cutoff low in southern California moves northward. Light rain is possible on the western edge of this low this evening and overnight. The highest chances are in Lake, eastern Mendocino, and Trinity Counties. Rain amounts are fairly meager for this first round, with generally less than a 1/4 inch forecast. A stronger frontal system will increase rain chances throughout the day on Sunday. A shortwave trough and associated well defined frontal boundary will quickly move over the N CA coast Sunday afternoon/evening. A burst of heavy precipitation rates (0.3 to 0.5 inches per hour) can be expected with the frontal passage Sunday afternoon through Sunday night. Forecast rainfall totals Sunday into Monday have increase to a broad 1-2 inches, with isolated southwest facing higher terrain to receive 2.5 inches. Though these totals are relatively low, areas that experience the maximum estimated rates may see some brief minor/nuisance level hydrological issues. There will be some elevated instability with the trough, which will likely be evolving into a closed low near or south of the Mendocino coast as it dives south past Point Arena. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph can be expected with the frontal passage Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening. The highest probabilities for wind gusts over 30 mph are for the coastal and areas over Cape Mendocino and southward. There will be increased instability and forcing around the developing low closer to Mendocino and Lake counties. This brings higher chances for more prolonged breezy winds. Winds sharply shift northerly behind the front (near 10 pm Sunday) as the low moves south. These northerly winds will be breezy (20-30 mph gusts) through Monday afternoon. The environment will also be sufficient for thunderstorm development for coastal areas around and south of Cape Mendocino. Snow levels are likely to be high at 4500-5000 ft, but a dusting to an inch of snow is possible at Scott Mountain Pass on Highway 3. Lingering showers may continue through the day Monday before tapering off Monday night. The upper-level trough behind the front will bring a much colder and drier airmass. Widespread frost and possibly freezing temperatures can be expected Monday night and Tuesday night. NBM shows high chances for temperatures below 36F in Trinity, eastern Mendocino, and Lake counties. Chances for freezing temperatures less than 32F are 50 to 60% in the coldest valleys of Trinity and Mendocino counties. Wednesday will have the coldest morning, and if offshore flow is weak enough, areas of frost will be likely over coastal areas as well. There is currently a high chance (80%) for a minimum temperature below 37F for isolated portions of the coast such as around McKinleyville. High temperatures will also be cooler, with even the warmest valleys struggling to reach 60. Overnight lows will remain chilly through next week, but values will nearly align with seasonal norms. Most ensemble members are in agreement in an additional system arriving late next week, returning wet weather to the area. Confidence on impacts is low at this point, but rain, gusty winds, and mountain snow are all possible. Stay tuned. JB/JJW && .AVIATION...LIFR conditions developed overnight across the interior valleys, including at UKI. Fog and low clouds across the interior valleys dissipated between 18Z and 20Z today. Mostly VFR conditions are then expected for all terminals through at least 3Z this evening. Conditions will most likely deteriorate at coastal aerodromes after 03Z to 06Z Sun as an upstream trough induces a push of shallow moisture onto the coast. Winds are forecast to remain light under 10kt or calm. /ZVS && .MARINE...Northerly winds will increase in the lee of Cape Mendo with localized gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon and evening. Steep waves up to 6 ft are expected to build in lee of Cape Mendo by this evening. A small craft advisory has been hoisted for the southern outer waters. These conditions may briefly extend into the inner waters during the evening Sat. Otherwise calmer conditions with lighter northerlies expected north of Cape Mendo. A mix of small wave groups will also continue to subside today. Next frontal system is forecast to rapidly approach on Sunday. Strong to near gale sustained winds are forecast to develop in the wake of the front Sunday evening into Monday. Models are now in a better agreement with gale force gust N-NW winds up to around 40 kts across the outer waters, with the strongest south of Cape Mendocino on the backside of the front. Gale Watches are out for the outer waters and the southern inner zone. A more brief period of gale conditions is likely in portions of the northern inner zones as well. A Hazardous Seas Watch is up for the zone (450) to account for the potential gale conditions, large steep waves, and confused seas state. A large mid to short period W-NW swell will also arrive by Mon and seas will once again become hazardous. Seas could reach 18-20 ft by early Monday, especially across the southern outer waters. Another deep low will rapidly develop and approach on Wed and the risk for southerly gales with large steep waves will once again increase and may persist into Thu. DUG/JJW && .BEACH HAZARDS...A larger NW swell will move through the waters Sunday evening through Monday, resulting in building surf along the beaches and increasing the potential of sneaker waves. Breaking waves will increase rapidly Sunday evening, reaching as high as 14 to 19 feet by Sunday evening along the northwest facing beaches. Sneaker waves are a unique hazard, with many minutes between waves. Pay attention and stay above the high water line and any wet sand to stay safe. If the ground is wet, waves have surged there recently. Stay safe and never turn your back on the ocean! /ZVS && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Gale Watch from Sunday evening through Monday morning for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PST Sunday for PZZ475. Gale Watch from Sunday evening through late Monday night for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

862 FXUS66 KMTR 152210 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 210 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 107 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025 - Light rain spreading across the region from south to north today. Highest totals from Monterey Bay southward, less than an inch further north. - Next system on track for late Sunday with a strong cold front and a period of moderate-to-heavy rain overnight into Monday morning. Slight chance of thunderstorms Monday morning. - Drier Tuesday with chilly temperatures through the rest of the week. Next rain chance Thursday, details uncertain. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 107 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025 (This evening through Sunday) Light rain spreading over the region from the southeast will continue through this evening. This is a result of wrap around moisture from the same surface low which brought us the heavier rain Friday. This surface low, currently centered around the Channel Islands, will gradually drift northeastward through tonight and Sunday morning. No major winds are anticipated, as all of the stronger jet energy remains focused further south. All-in- all today is just a nice, calm, stratiform rain day. Rain totals so far have been light, but appreciable for points further south where rain has been ongoing since early this morning. As of writing, about 0.7" near Fort Hunter Liggett, 0.25-0.5" up the Big Sur coast, and a few hundredths to a tenth around Monterey Bay. These totals will tick up as the rain continues this evening. Overall by Sunday morning we can expect 1-2" along the Big Sur coast, about an inch in the vicinity of Monterey Bay, southern Santa Clara, and Santa Cruz mtns, 0.5-0.75" across the Bay Area, and ranging from about 0.25-0.75" across the North Bay. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 107 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025 (Sunday night through next Friday) We don`t really get much of a break on Sunday before the next system moves into play. Southerly winds will begin to increase late Sunday afternoon ahead of a cold front surge southeast associated with a modest surface low progged to move into the PNW. Overall presentation of the associated rainfall will likely mimics this past Friday`s system in terms of amounts, with the typical terrain-enhanced spots picking up more. The heaviest rainfall looks to occur during the overnight hours into Monday morning before sunrise, when FROPA occurs. Totals on the order of 0.75-1.00" can be expected across lower elevations, while higher elevations of the North Bay and coastal ranges may see up to 2". Locally up to 3" in favored areas of the Santa Cruz mtns and Big Sur coast. There is also a slight chance for thunderstorms during this overnight period as the cold front moves through (embedded thunderstorms), as well as into Monday afternoon in the post- frontal environment (scattered/isolated thunderstorms). Potential threats around any thunderstorms that do develop include locally gusty winds to 45 mph and a few lightning strikes. Once this system moves out, the story turns to chilly temperatures. We aren`t seeing any frost/freeze as it stands now, but Monday and beyond looks like highs in the 50s and morning lows in the 40s across the board through much of the week. Next rain maker slated for Thursday, but a bit of uncertainty is tamping down confidence in a detailed forecast at this juncture. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1020 AM PST Sat Nov 15 2025 VFR will eventually yield to poor flying conditions over the next 24 to 30 hours. -RA is anticipated at just about all terminals during this time period. Slick runways, MVFR visibility and ceilings are expected to be the main impacts. Intermittent periods of 2-3 hours without -RA are probable, but uncertainty precludes getting this hyper-specific in the TAF. Confidence is high that between 15-17Z Sunday, there will be a break in -RA ahead of the next storm system slated to increase winds and precip chances Sunday afternoon and evening. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with variable winds. -RA and cigs are anticipated around 22Z, though confidence in timing is low to medium. By 00Z, VFR cigs are highly probable with -RA resulting in reduced visibility. While southerly winds are forecast, speeds are anticipated to remain largely below 10 knots. MVFR cigs and visibility are forecast a few hours after -RA beings and persist through a good portion of the TAF cycle. As noted above, intermittent breaks in -RA are possible, but the most prolonged period of precip-free conditions appears to be at or after 15Z Sunday. SHRA INFOV the terminals is anticipated by 21Z Sunday, with additional SHRA beyond the 30 hour TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach...Cigs around FL045 are anticipated around 22Z with cigs below FL040 by 00Z. Cigs are probable to persist through the entire 30 hour period. Monterey Bay Terminals...-RA has arrived at KMRY and should arrive at KSNS soon. Cigs continue to lower with variable winds eventually becoming easterly. -RA should support deteriorating cigs through this afternoon and evening. Around 4Z/5Z, there is likely to be a 5-6 hour window of precip-free conditions before rain returns just before sunrise Sunday. This round of -RA will last through mid-morning Sunday. MVFR cigs are forecast to prevail, though there`s a low chance for IFR at KMRY. After the mid-morning lull in -RA, the next opportunity (for -RA) is not anticipated until after 18Z Sunday. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 943 AM PST Sat Nov 15 2025 Widespread rain showers are anticipated today, with hazardous boating conditions, especially for outer waters near and north of Pigeon Point. Sunday will bring moderate to fresh north to NW winds, moderate seas up to 8 feet, and a rain showers. A storm will bring strong to near gale force northerly winds Sunday night, quickly building very rough seas by Monday morning. Conditions will gradually improve Tuesday into Wednesday. Very high west- northwesterly swell and hazardous seas return late next week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...Bain MARINE...Bain Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

722 FXUS66 KOTX 152220 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 220 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Low impact and unsettled wet weather continues throughout next week. && .SYNOPSIS... Next round of precipitation will come Sunday and continue into Monday night. Mild temperatures will keep snow levels high with primarily light rain expected. Temperatures cooling closer to normal for the latter half of next week. A weak weather system on Thursday brings the potential for light precipitation and light snow in the mountains. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Tuesday night: The Northwest is situated within a split flow regime with a cutoff low pressure system off of the southern California coast and shortwave ridging of high pressure over the Northwest Region. Relatively higher heights building in today after a period of unsettled weather has resulted in a drying trend with a mix of mid to low clouds with low levels fairly saturated, especially over the Idaho Panhandle. A trough of low pressure is digging across the Gulf of Alaska and approaching the region. This trough will act to kick out the cutoff low spinning offshore of southern California with a trajectory that takes it northeast into Nevada by tomorrow afternoon. A deformation band will form in the northwest quadrant of this low across eastern Oregon into southeast Washington, and eventually across the Idaho Panhandle by Sunday night. The band will be slow moving and have a relatively long residence time over mainly the eastern two-thirds of the forecast area resulting in a soggy period with persistent light stratiform precipitation. The stratiform and stable nature of the precipitation will mean that intensities will be light, but steady. Not expecting any major bumps in stream flow. Mainly just some small puddles on roadways and a nuisance for anyone outside and trying to stay dry. Snow levels will be high at 7,000 plus feet and not expected to bring snow even for the mountains. Expect rain to increase tomorrow afternoon, especially late, and then continue into Sunday evening and through Sunday night. The upper level trough then swings in Sunday night into Monday and increases moist isentropic ascent across at least extreme Eastern Washington and into the Idaho Panhandle with continued light precipitation. The two day total of rain for extreme Eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle will generally fall between 0.25 and 0.75 inches with the higher terrain in the Idaho Panhandle to receive the higher end of this range. This period will be mild with temperatures above normal; however, we do see temperatures cooling closer to normal from the mid 50s this weekend to the mid to upper 40s by Tuesdays for high temperatures. Wednesday through Saturday: Temperatures remain steady with highs in the mid to upper 40s through the rest of the week and overnight lows in the lower 30s. This is only slightly above normal for what we would expect for mid November. There is good agreement in the model ensembles for a split pattern to continue. A trough of low pressure will dig in the eastern Pacific Wednesday into Wednesday night, and the bulk of the energy will split off and dive south of the Northwest delivering the bulk of the precipitation into Oregon and the state of California. This will leave just a fraction of energy and moisture to traverse across the state of Washington along the northern branch of the Polar Jet Stream. There is some indication for a weak Atmospheric River (AR) to consolidate and be directed into the Northwest around Friday into next weekend. Cluster analysis looking at different scenarios are in good agreement with approximately 80-90% of the members indicating this scenario in zonal flow. A minority of the ensemble members show more ridging over the region keeping the Polar Jet, and storm track, north of the region where the majority of the precipitation with the AR would be directed into British Columbia. Snow levels will be a bit lower towards the end of next week, but any snow still would be restricted to the mountains. There is potential for impacts due to snow over mountain passes in the Cascades, including Washington Pass and Stevens Pass, and potentially over Lookout Pass. These mountain passes have a 30-50% chance for seeing at least 6 inches over a 48 hour period for next weekend. /SVH && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: Varying levels of clouds over the Inland Northwest today. Stratocumulus cloud cover over the mountains will result in mountain obscurations and MVFR ceilings at airports. This will include KPUW/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE as low clouds expand out of the Idaho Panhandle into these airports at least into the early afternoon hours. Warm air advection and downsloping off of the higher terrain of the Idaho Panhandle this evening into tonight should result in a general decrease and dissipation of this cloud cover yielding VFR conditions into Sunday morning. Moisture will increase over southeast Washington into the southern to central Idaho Panhandle with rain increasing Sunday afternoon. .FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Latest satellite imagery showing an expanding stratocumulus cloud deck with ceilings between 1,500 and 3,500 ft agl gives moderate confidence that KPUW/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE will see MVFR conditions this morning into the early afternoon. The 12Z HREF model guidance suggests that ceilings will lift and/or clouds dissipate between 22-02Z from KPUW earlier in the day then into KGEG/KSFF by late afternoon. Model guidance suggests it will be after 02Z before KCOE will see improvement and VFR conditions. /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 56 42 55 44 50 37 / 20 20 50 80 80 60 Coeur d`Alene 54 43 54 44 49 39 / 50 30 50 90 90 80 Pullman 56 42 53 43 49 36 / 50 10 70 90 90 70 Lewiston 61 45 55 47 54 42 / 30 10 70 90 70 60 Colville 54 38 53 39 51 35 / 30 50 40 70 80 70 Sandpoint 50 42 52 42 49 38 / 80 70 60 90 90 90 Kellogg 50 44 55 46 50 39 / 90 40 70 90 100 90 Moses Lake 60 42 55 43 54 35 / 10 10 30 50 30 20 Wenatchee 60 46 55 46 54 38 / 10 20 20 50 20 20 Omak 55 44 54 44 52 39 / 10 20 30 40 30 30 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

190 FXUS66 KPDT 152238 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 238 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025 .DISCUSSION... Key Messages: 1. Widespread showers and breezy winds Monday. 2. Near normal temperatures Tuesday onward. 3. Precipitation returns late Wednesday into Thursday. Current radar and visible satellite imagery shows some light returns along the Cascade crest under partly to mostly cloudy skies. This is in response to a weak transient ridge of high pressure that will be departing to our east tonight as the next system approaches the coast. An upper level low pressure system, currently located off the coast of California, will slide up the backside of the exiting ridge to bring rainfall across Central Oregon and the John Day Basin shortly after midnight tonight and will continue to spread north by late morning. Widespread rain chances (40-80%) stay heightened into the early morning hours on Monday before slowly confining to the Cascades and Blue Mountains late Monday into Tuesday. Snow levels will be on a slow decline, from 6500-7500 feet Sunday, 4500-5500 feet Monday, and 3500-4500 feet Tuesday. However, the bulk of the moisture will arrive Sunday, only leading to snow amounts of less than an inch across our mountain zones Monday and Tuesday. The inclusion of moisture from the southern low pressure along with the incoming upper level trough from the west will allow for rain amounts of 0.10-0.20" across the northern Blue Mountain foothills and portions of the Lower Columbia Basin (including Tri-Cities and Hermiston). 0.30-0.45" of rainfall is likely through the Grande Ronde Valley and the John Day Basin, with less than 0.10" expected through the Eastern Gorge (The Dalles), Central Oregon (Bend, Redmond), and the Yakima/Kittitas Valleys. An additional 0.05" is likely across the northern Blue Mountain foothills, Central Oregon, John Day Basin, and the Grande Ronde Valley Monday, as only a trace is expected for the Lower Columbia Basin. Deterministic and ensemble guidance is still struggling with the strength of the incoming upper level trough, which directly relates to the above rain amounts. This leads to moderate (50-60%) confidence in forecasted accumulations, primarily across the Lower Columbia Basin and northern Blue Mountain foothills. Currently, 56% of ensemble members advertise a stronger system and wetter scenario, which would inflate these rain amounts by about 0.05". This passing system will also attribute to breezy winds across the Lower Columbia Basin, northern Blue Mountain foothills, Eastern Gorge, and the Kittitas Valley as sustained west winds of 10-15 mph and gusts of up to 25 mph are likely. Much like precipitation amounts, winds are also susceptible to the incoming system`s strength. Thus, 56% of ensembles align more with a windier scenario, with the NBM suggesting a 40-60% chance of wind gusts reaching 25 mph or greater. However, with ensembles hinting at a slightly windier outcome Monday, the wind forecast may bump up slightly as the event nears. Upper level flow becomes more from the northwest in the wake of the Sunday/Monday system, dropping high temperatures about 10 degrees across the Lower Columbia Basin from Monday to Wednesday. Highs midweek are expected to reach into the upper 40s to low 50s with lows hovering around freezing, which is near normal for this time of year. These normal temperatures should stay through the week, with a slight uptick Friday when west-southwest flow aloft returns. These near normal temperatures midweek are a result of another incoming upper level trough, returning scattered to widespread showers to the region. Ensembles highlight timing and system strength inconsistencies, with 43% of members aligning with the current forecast, 31% of members hinting at a slightly wetter outcome, and 25% of members suggesting a drier scenario. The current consensus is rain amounts of less than 0.10" across the Lower Columbia Basin, Central Oregon, and the northern Blue Mountain foothills. 75 && .AVIATION...00Z TAFs...Sites will initially start at VFR. Although a tough forecast, I`m a bit more confident to input some fog for DLS overnight starting at 14Z. Guidance is a bit stronger on this than earlier in the day, so went ahead and put a group for 1/2SM fog. Fog is of course a bit tricky to forecast this time of year, so additional monitoring is needed if the outlook needs to be updated for the 06Z TAFs. Other sites that could see some sub-MVFR conditions is ALW with a PROB30 group at the tail end of the forecast period. This will be in due part of the weather system and will be dependent where the heaviest rain forms. All sites will experience some precipitation by late tomorrow morning through the early afternoon hours. That said, all sites have at least a 5-15% chance of seeing sub-MVFR conditions briefly, depending where the heaviest rain forms. /95 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 41 52 43 55 / 0 70 80 60 ALW 44 52 46 55 / 10 80 90 70 PSC 44 54 43 56 / 0 50 60 30 YKM 43 58 42 56 / 10 20 40 10 HRI 43 52 44 55 / 0 60 60 40 ELN 43 54 39 51 / 20 30 60 20 RDM 36 57 36 51 / 0 30 60 30 LGD 40 54 43 53 / 10 90 90 80 GCD 42 54 42 53 / 20 90 90 70 DLS 47 57 47 54 / 10 40 70 40 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...75 LONG TERM....75 AVIATION...95

202 FXUS65 KREV 152155 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 155 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Periods of wetting rains and mountain snow return this afternoon and persist through Sunday. * A colder storm is expected to impact the area late Sunday into Monday, bringing colder temperatures and the potential for more rain, mountain snow, and breezy winds. * Cool and unsettled weather conditions remain through next week as additional storms queue up in the Pacific. && .DISCUSSION... A low off the S CA coast will drive moisture up from the south today as it tracks inland, allowing for high snow levels this afternoon (above 9000 ft). The onset of the precip for W NV may start as early as 2 PM today but the exact timing is uncertain as some high res models hint at a localized pocket of dry air ahead of the main moisture surge. This may delay the moderate rain showers for W NV until after sunset. As the low progresses further north, the precip will acquire a more southeast to northwest flow. This switch will likely occur late tonight, around midnight. Speaking of midnight, this is around when snow levels are expected to plummet significantly, dropping nearly 3000 ft from ~10 PM to ~4 AM. Our friends in Mammoth and along the E Sierra will see the heaviest snowfall rates, expected to occur midnight through the early morning hours, coinciding with that snow level drop. Snow totals along the highest peaks of Mono county today will range from 6-12 inches. As for the Tahoe Basin, the highest peaks could see 10-16 inches. The corresponding liquid totals will range from 1-1.3" along the Sierra with 0.2-0.5" across W NV through Sunday night. A second, colder system is coming in on the heels of this system. There will be a brief lull in the rainfall for W NV late Sunday afternoon through early Monday morning, though precip is expected to continue to hug the Sierra. This second system is dropping in from off the coast of British Columbia, bringing colder air, which will help to keep snow levels between 6000 and 7000 ft. This will bring snowfall of 8-12" in the Tahoe Basin and 10-16" along the E Sierra. The most intense snowfall is expected to arrive early Monday morning (as early as 2 AM); impacts to the morning commute are expected, especially with any lingering snow on the roads or, if the roads are wet, cold enough temperatures to make roads slick. What could throw a wrench in this forecast, though, is if the low swings further south (like this system we have today). That could bring snow levels higher, nearly negating everything I just stated. It`s not winter yet; we`re definitely still in "shoulder season." Cool temperatures with drier conditons are expected Tuesday and Wednesday, though a third system may bring impacts as early as Thursday. Confidence on those impacts and details remains low at this time. Wednesday morning looks to be the coldest morning. As of this writing, the Reno Intl Airport has yet to hit a low of 32F this season. Wednesday, November 19th could very well be the date we reach 32F, with a 70% chance of hitting 32F or lower. -Giralte && .AVIATION... SHRA has already started to impact KMMH this afternoon. KTVL/KTRK can expect SHRA to pick up mainly after 16/00Z, becoming persistent after 16/07Z. Low CIGS/VIS will allow for MVFR/IFR, with localized LIFR, conditions through much of today for all Sierra terminals. Sierra Front terminals can expect CIGS/VIS down to MVFR today with mountain obscurations and -SHRA. Snow levels will lower overnight (~6500 feet), with a switchover to snow around 16/08-16/10Z Sunday for KMMH and 16/14Z for KTVL. For KTRK, there`s a lower potential for the rain to switchover to snow (30% chance of snow). Up to 1-2 inches of heavy, wet snow is possible for KMMH/KTVL through Sunday. Surface winds will remain light with gusts below 20 kt through Sunday morning, with a slight increase in southwest breezes Sunday afternoon. FL100 winds shift and increase from the southwest Sunday morning with gusts to 45 kt the rest of the day. Periods of mountain wave turbulence may develop with the increasing FL100 wind speeds Sunday. -Giralte/Edan && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Monday NVZ002. CA...Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Monday CAZ072. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Sunday CAZ073. && $$

077 FXUS66 KSTO 152110 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 110 PM PST Sat Nov 15 2025 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread light to moderate precipitation spreads from the south late this afternoon through Sunday morning. Less widespread precipitation expected Sunday afternoon. - A colder system will bring more widespread rain and moderate mountain snow Sunday PM into Monday. Breezy southerly winds will accompany the system, along with isolated thunderstorms on Monday. - Drier conditions return Tuesday into Wednesday morning, followed by another weather system late Wednesday into Friday. .DISCUSSION... ...Saturday through Sunday Morning... Light to moderate widespread precipitation is expected late this afternoon through Sunday morning as an upper low pushes northward. Highest precipitation amounts are expected over the eastern Valley and Sierra foothills/mountains. Forecast precipitation totals are 0.75-1.00 in the Valley and Delta. Amounts over the mountains and foothills are generally between 1.00 to 1.75 inches. Snow levels will start out above 8000 feet before dropping down to 6500-7500 feet Sunday morning. Breezy southerly winds will also increase over the weekend with the strongest gusts in the Delta and northern Sacramento Valley. ...Late Sunday through Early Next Week... Less widespread precipitation is expected Sunday afternoon as system exits the area. Then, renewed chances for widespread precipitation are forecast late Sunday into Monday as colder weather system drops down from the north. WPC Guidance shows the latest precipitation totals to be around 0.50-1.00" in the Valley and Delta, with 1.00-1.50" in the foothills and mountains. This system will be colder, with snow levels around 6500-7000 feet Sunday, lowering to around 5500-6000 feet by Monday morning. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Sierra and southern Cascades above 6000 feet from 10 PM tonight through 4 PM Monday. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 10 inches are anticipated above 6000 feet with 1 to 2 feet at the highest peaks. Additionally there is a 10 to 20% chance of isolated thunderstorms Monday afternoon. Breezy southerly winds are also expected with this system, with forecast gusts between 25 to 35 mph. The strongest winds are expected across portions of the northern Sacramento Valley, Delta, and the Sierra. ...Mid to Late Next Week... Drier conditions are expected Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Another system may approach the region Wednesday evening into Friday, potentially bringing widespread precipitation and mountain snow. However, high uncertainty remains regarding potential storm track and precipitation totals. .AVIATION... VFR conditions until around 05z in the northern San Joaquin Valley as a weather system moves in from the south. Conditions gradually deteriorate northward in the evening/night hours as rain overtakes most of the area. MVFR/IFR conditions with southerly wind gusts up to 25 knots in the Valley; 35 knots in the Delta. Snow levels around 6500 feet in the mountains Sunday morning with 20-30 knot southerly wind gusts. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Monday for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas County/Lassen Park. && $$

800 FXUS65 KMSO 151956 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1256 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Periodic light snow across mountain areas and passes Monday into Wednesday, with minimal impacts. - Split flow pattern into next week, with no significant winter weather impacts. - Increased odds for atmospheric river and colder winter weather by next weekend (November 22-23) into Thanksgiving week. Global models suggest the Western US will remain under a split flow weather pattern through the next week, with the core of the Pacific jet remaining offshore. As Pacific systems approach the West Coast this coming week, models suggest they will continue to dig southward into the Great Basin and Southwest. This will leave the Northern Rockies under a relatively mild west- southwest flow pattern, with periods of showers as weak atmospheric waves supply moisture and lift. The first system arrives Sunday into Monday, with showers increasing across central Idaho by Sunday morning with snow levels above 8,000 feet. Shower activity will focus across north-central Idaho and northwest Montana through Sunday evening. Models suggest a secondary wave will move into the Yellowstone region, with showers moving into Lemhi County and southwest Montana, along the divide. Snow levels will fall near 6,500-7,000 feet, with light snow accumulations, generally a trace to 2 inches across mountain areas. This snow will bring only minor impacts, given recent warm temperatures to pass areas, including Lost Trail and Homestake Passes. The next Pacific system will dig into the Great Basin and Southwest US Tuesday into Wednesday, with the Northern Rockies on the far northern influence of this trough. Temperatures will cool near seasonal normals, with snow levels falling near 5,000-6,000 feet Tuesday to 4,000-5,000 feet by Wednesday, with lower snow levels along the ID/MT border. Snow shower activity will bring periodic reduced visibility to area passes, with minor accumulations generally an inch or less each day. Snow will struggle to accumulate to roadways during the daylight hours with any minor impacts during overnight periods. Global ensembles are hinting at a pattern change by next weekend (November 22-23). The European EPS ensemble in particularly suggests the Pacific jet will extent inland across the Pacific Northwest, with a large subset of ensemble members suggesting an atmospheric river across the Northern Rockies, along with a cold front and the potential for widespread mountain snow. Currently around 70% of model clusters suggest this solution, with the remaining members keeping the jet further north in Canada with drier and warmer weather in the Northern Rockies. Looking ahead towards Thanksgiving week, global ensembles are hedging towards a northwesterly flow pattern, with increased odds for colder air and winter weather impacts at times across the Northern Rockies. This period will be monitored closely in the coming days given high interest in Thanksgiving travel. && .AVIATION...Remnant light showers, occasional mountain obscurations, and breezy westerly winds will all gradually dissipate this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions will be common into Sunday. Patchy fog and/or stratus may occur tonight where partial clearing occurs including KGPI and KMSO. An upper low off the southern California coast will lift into the Great Basin on Sunday sending weak disturbances through the Northern Rockies into Monday. One of these disturbances will lead to increasing mid- level clouds on Sunday morning followed by periodic areas of light/moderate showers. Snow levels will remain near 7000 feet and above through Monday. Occasional mountain obscurations may occur on Sunday but more impactful reduced ceilings generally wait until Sunday night/Monday morning. Winds will be relatively light Sunday into Monday with the highest gusts only reaching 15-20 kts and confined to southwest Montana/Lemhi County each afternoon. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

335 FXUS65 KBOI 152143 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 243 PM MST Sat Nov 15 2025 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...An upper level low with a deep moisture tap currently off the coast of southern California will lift northeast into Nevada tonight into Sunday. This movement will be in response to an upper level trough approaching the Pacific Northwest coast. A warm front will lift north late tonight into early Sunday, bringing light rain to our area. Steadier rain will develop across southeast Oregon on Sunday along a mid-level trough axis which will aid lift, while southwest Idaho sees less rainfall due to a dry slot. The trough axis will gradually weaken and move east Sunday night and Monday, bringing additional showers to the area. Snow levels will be 8-10kft on Sunday, then lower to 6500-7500 ft Sunday night and Monday as cooler air moves in with the low center. High snow levels will limit significant snow accumulations to the highest peaks. Rain amounts through Monday of 0.25-0.75" (locally up to 1") are expected across southeast Oregon and the southwest Idaho mountains, and 0.10-0.25" across the Snake Basin, except up to 0.50" possible (10-20% chance) in any steadier bands of rain that develop. Temperatures will remain mild on Sunday, especially across southwest Idaho where less rain is expected. By Monday, high temperatures will be 5-10 degrees cooler than today across the entire area, which will still be around 5 degrees above normal. Winds will be breezy behind the warm front on Sunday across the southern half of the area with gusts 15-30 mph. Breezes will subside on Monday as the upper low drifts east of our area and the incoming upper level trough weakens and splits. .LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Two cut off lows will move onto the West Coast on Tuesday. Our region looks to be sandwiched between these two cold air masses, which will bring showers to high terrain and near the Nevada border through Wednesday. Model agreement amongst solutions remains high in the overall track of the systems, but some variation exists on the position of the southern low, so uncertainty remains in precipitation and temperature forecasts through Wednesday. Snow levels will likely be around 5000- 6000 feet MSL through Wednesday, briefly lowering to 3500-4500 feet MSL on Thursday with low elevation rain-snow mix possible Thursday morning. A ridge looks to build back in briefly to our area on Thursday ahead of another trough digging into the Pacific Northwest from the Bering Sea. An unsettled pattern will continue through Saturday, with yet another cutoff low moving into California and diving to our south. More uncertainty follows this system, with several models varying on positioning. This will likely bring another push of precipitation, with potentially cooler temperatures bringing lower snow levels to the area on Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION...Mainly VFR through the evening. Widespread rain showers beginning early tomorrow morning with MVFR to localized LIFR in precip, patchy morning fog, and low clouds. Mountain obscuration in low clouds and precipitation. Snow levels 9k-10k ft MSL, lowering to 7k-8k ft MSL Sunday PM. Surface winds: variable less than 8 kt today, becoming SW-SE 10-20 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt Sun afternoon. KBOI...VFR today with a low confidence in a MVFR ceilings/visibility tomorrow in intermittent rain showers through the day. Surface winds: NW 6-8 kt during the afternoon switching to ESE 6-10 kt by 06Z/Sun. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...ST LONG TERM....SA AVIATION.....SA

042 FXUS65 KLKN 151923 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1123 AM PST Sat Nov 15 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1123 AM PST Sat Nov 15 2025 * Unseasonably warm today * Periods of rain in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada Saturday evening through Monday night * Light snow on passes and summits Sunday evening through Monday night * Much cooler Sunday and Monday && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The upper-level low pressure system over Southern California will shift northward into northern and central Nevada this evening. This will be the first of several weather impacts through Monday, with models showing greater confidence of more weather impacts late-week. Precipitation will be widespread throughout northern and central by this evening with periods of rain lasting through Monday. No chance of snow this evening as temperatures remain very warm, except for mountain peaks as snow levels will be at 10,000 ft. Snow levels are expected to drop as cooler temperatures move in, dropping to 6000 ft by Monday. Light snow is expected over passes and summits along US-50 and I-80 east of Elko Sunday evening through Monday. Chance of precipitation gradually increases as the system moves north, up to 60-70% for central Nevada this evening, and Sunday afternoon, with northern Nevada up to 25-30% this evening, increasing to 50-70% tomorrow afternoon. Chances are lower Monday, but stay around 25-35% across the region. Much cooler temperatures expected across central and northern Nevada as the system moves east, giving a more northerly flow. Temperatures Sunday expected to be 10 degrees cooler than today, with Monday temperatures dropping to below normal. Models are showing better agreement of another round of weather impacting the silver state late Wednesday evening into Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of unseasonably warm temperatures today, followed by cooler weather Sunday and below normal temperatures Monday. High confidence of intermittent periods of rain over central and northern Nevada this evening through Monday. Moderate confidence of light snow on summits and passes Sunday evening through Monday. Increasing confidence of another weather system impacting Nevada late Wednesday into Thursday. && .AVIATION... Expect VFR conditions to be dominant at all northern terminals until this evening. Central terminals KELY and KTPH may see MVFR or lower conditions today as -SHRA and -RA passes over the airports along with possible HZ and BR conditions. This evening, VCSH and light showers are expected to impact all terminals this evening. Cloud levels also expected to impact flight conditions dropping between FL010 and FL050 at all airports. Southerly winds at all airports with speeds at northern terminals at 7-10 kts, while central terminals seeing stronger winds at 12-15 kts, gusts up to 25 kts. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...97 AVIATION...97