992 FXUS66 KSEW 031100 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 300 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Weak weather system lifting north into Southwest Washington today. The system will continue to drift north tonight before moving off to the east Tuesday morning. Warm front also moving in from the south Tuesday night with the trailing cold front stalling over the area Wednesday. Strongest system in this series moving inland Thursday into Friday morning. Possible break Saturday before another front arrives at the end of the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Satellite imagery shows middle level cloud deck over Western Washington this morning. Clouds are thin enough to see the moon at times. With the cloud cover temperatures are in a narrow range at 2 am/10z, in the lower to mid 40s. Weak front moving into Northwest Oregon/Southwestern Washington later today. Clouds thickening this morning with rain chances spreading north during the day. Operational runs not showing much in the way of rain from about Seattle northward. Ensembles show a different story with a high percentage of the solutions wet up to Everett. This will not be a big rain maker but will still have likely to categorical pops from Seattle south this afternoon for a tenth of an inch or less. Cloud cover and increasing rain will not allow for much daytime heating. Highs only a couple of degrees either side of 50. Front continuing to lift a little north and east tonight. Rain chances getting as far north as Skagit county with likely pops from about Seattle southward. Cloud cover overnight will keep lows in the 40s with the exception of the north coast where some clearing will allow temperatures to drop into the mid and upper 30s. System kicking out to the east Tuesday morning with a very temporary upper level ridge building in the afternoon. Middle and high level clouds out ahead of an approaching warm front will keep skies mostly cloudy Tuesday afternoon. A little warmer with highs in the mid 50s. Not much of a break in the action Tuesday night as a warm front lifts north into Western Washington spreading rain over the entire area by midnight. Some cooler air trapped over the North Cascades keeping snow levels around 5000 feet while the remainder of the mountains see snow levels rise to 6500 to 7500 feet. The warm front will be a quick mover. This combined with the associated southerly flow aloft will not produce much rain for the Cascades, a half inch or less. The south slopes of the Olympics will be the wettest location in this scenario but even there rainfall amounts forecasted to be under an inch. Lows in the upper 40s. Trailing cold front slowly moving into Western Washington Wednesday. Like we have already seen a few times the last couple of weeks, the jet is aimed at Northern California and a deep upper level trough will be digging south behind the front. Both these variables will slow the eastward movement of the system down with the front stalling over Western Washington. The parent low for the front is way up in the Gulf of Alaska but windy conditions likely over the Northwest Interior and along the coast as the surface gradients tighten up with the approach of the front. Wind advisories possible in both locations Wednesday and maybe as early as Tuesday night. Highs in the mid to upper 50s. Felton && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models in good agreement with the cold front dying over Western Washington Wednesday night. Next system moving quickly into Western Washington Thursday being pushed by a 100-120 knot jet stream. Model forecasted IVT values around 500 kg/m/sec putting this in the weak atmospheric river category. Model 850 mb winds southwesterly 35-45 knots later Thursday into Thursday night enhancing the precipitation over the south slopes of the Olympics as well as the Central Cascades. Snow levels not extremely high, in the 5500 to 7000 foot range. Flood threat increasing for the Skokomish River ( see hydro section for details ). In addition to the rain another round of wind for the usual locations, Coast and Northwest Interior. Frontal system pretty progressive with the front east of the area by Friday afternoon or Friday evening. Operational models throwing an upper level ridge up for the weekend as another frontal system with a digging trough behind it develops well offshore. Ensembles solutions favoring a dry forecast at least for Saturday into Sunday afternoon but there are still 20-40% of the ensemble solutions indicating light precipitation both days. Will go with a chance of showers at this point for most of the weekend with the rain out ahead of the next frontal system arriving Sunday night. Felton && .AVIATION... Southwest flow aloft will continue today as a frontal system and associated trough move onshore over Oregon. Clouds will thicken and lower this morning with areas of MVFR in light rain developing by afternoon mainly from KPAE southward. KSEA...VFR ceilings are expected to lower to MVFR in light rain at times from around 21Z onward. Surface winds northerly 8 to 12 knots will shift easterly 4 to 7 knots this afternoon. 27 && .MARINE... A surface low moving northeastward off the Oregon coast will dissipate as it moves onshore over northwest Oregon late today. A broad and deep area of low pressure will move into the offshore waters on Tuesday evening. A vigorous frontal system associated with a sub 980 millibar surface low lifting northward toward Haida Gwaii is expected to produce headlines for all waters Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Gales are likely for the coastal waters as well as the Strait of Juan de Fuca and adjacent waters during this period. A series of additional fronts will follow into the end of the week maintaining a very active weather pattern. Seas of 10 to 12 feet will gradually subside below 10 feet briefly tonight or early Tuesday before building back to 15 to 20 feet Wednesday through the rest of the week. 27 && .HYDROLOGY... A series of storm systems will move through Western Washington this week. The system Thursday into Friday will be the wettest one of the bunch. Flooding is likely on the Skokomish river in Mason county as early as Thursday night. The remainder of the rivers will have sharp rises late in the week but only the rivers flowing off the Central Cascades ( Snoqualmie, Skykomish and Snohomish) are forecast to reach action stage. Most rivers will crest Friday and then recede over the weekend. The accumulation of rainfall over the next few days will increase the landslide risk late this week. Felton && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

901 FXUS66 KPQR 030559 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 958 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 ...Updated aviation discussion... .SYNOPSIS...The next round of rain moves into the region beginning Monday morning as a compact surface low develops offshore and moves through western Oregon. Trending drier on Tuesday aside from a few spotty light showers. The weather pattern becomes much more active Tuesday night through Friday morning as a strong low pressure system develops offshore and sends a series of fronts into western WA/OR. Expect widespread rain and gusty winds with each frontal passage, with the heaviest period of rain expected Thursday and Thursday night. This is also when the strongest winds are expected with max wind gusts likely peaking between at least 30-40 mph inland and 50-55 mph at the coast. In addition, coastal flooding is expected along portions of Highway 101 and Fraser Road in Tillamook County around high tide on Wednesday from 10 AM to 2 PM PST, with water up to one foot above ground level. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Tuesday...Satellite and surface weather observations from Sunday afternoon depicted mostly clear skies across southwest WA and northwest OR, aside from southwest WA and far northwest OR where high clouds were beginning to increase. Cloud cover will increase over the entire area Sunday night into Monday morning as a compact mesolow over the coastal waters moves northeastward towards the central Oregon coast. An area of light to moderate stratiform rain will accompany this low, spreading over the area between 3-9am Monday. Rain will then persist through the day on Monday before transitioning to off and on light rain showers Monday night. Rain should be heaviest Monday afternoon and evening with most locations picking up at least 0.5 inches of rain (50-80% chance for 0.5 inches or more, with the highest probabilities in the mountains and at the coast). Fortunately, hi-res model guidance suggest hourly rain rates will stay under 0.20-0.25 in/hr, suggesting urban flooding will not be a concern. There are no concerns for river flooding with this system either. Lastly, a brief period of gusty south winds with peak wind gusts up to 30-45 mph are likely along the central Oregon coast to the south of Pacific City Monday evening as the mesolow moves inland. The strongest wind gusts will occur along beaches and headlands. Come Tuesday, an upper level shortwave ridge will bring and end to precipitation aside from a few spotty light rain showers lingering. Winds will be lighter by then with mostly cloudy skies. -23 .LONG TERM...Tuesday night through Saturday night...The long term forecast is highlighted by an active weather pattern with periods of wet and windy conditions, especially Tuesday night through Thursday night. This is when models and their ensembles show good agreement for a strong low pressure system offshore near the Gulf of Alaska. Although the center of this low pressure system is not expected to make landfall in southwest WA or western OR, a series of strong frontal passages associated with this low will move inland, with each front bringing gusty southerly winds and widespread rain to the region. The first front will arrive Tuesday night, bringing mainly light to moderate rain with wind gusts up to 25-35 mph inland and up to 40-45 mph at the coast. However, rain will become heavier on Wednesday while winds likely increase with gusts up to at least 30-40 mph inland and up to 50-55 mph at the coast. This would be strong enough to result in some tree damage and power outages, but would not be strong enough for widespread downed trees and significant impacts. That said, there is still some uncertainty regarding exact wind speeds, as some model ensemble guidance shows higher winds. The NBM currently suggests a 5-20% chance for max wind gusts over 45 mph inland, and a 20-40% chance for max wind gusts over 55 mph along and near coast (mainly for beaches and headlands and exposed ridges in the Coast Range). If wind gusts of this magnitude materialize, wind headlines would be needed as impacts such as downed trees and power outages would become more widespread. While this is not the most likely outcome at this time, the forecast is worth monitoring over the next couple of days for potential changes. Yet another frontal system is set to arrive Thursday, bringing a renewed round of rain and gusty southerly winds. Wind speeds with this front look to be fairly similar to Wednesday, except at the coast and higher elevations in the Coast Range where probabilities for max wind gusts over 55 mph are relatively higher (35-60% chance). This frontal system is also on track to produce the heaviest rain of any of the frontal systems impacting the area this week. WPC QPF amounts from 4am Thursday through 4am Friday range between 1-1.25 inches for inland valleys, 1.5-2.0 inches for the coast and Cascade foothills, and 2-3 inches for the Coast Range and south WA/north OR Cascades. Given all the rain that is forecast to fall prior to the system on Thursday, rising river levels will be a concern. The main question that remains is whether or not enough rain will fall for some rivers to reach flood stage on Wednesday and/or Thursday. According to the latest HEFS guidance, the probability for any given river to reach minor flood stage is generally 10% or less, except a 25% chance for the Wilson River near Tillamook. Another river of concern would be the Grays River near Rosburg. Small creeks and streams are more likely to see some minor flooding. Lastly, minor urban flooding will also be possible, especially in low-lying areas with poor drainage. Rain chances remain in the forecast Friday through Saturday night, however ensemble guidance suggests rain amounts will be lighter and less impactful. Winds will also be weaker by then. -23 && .AVIATION...Satellite imagery and terminal observations as of late Sunday evening shows VFR conditions across the region with increasing high clouds ahead of the next system. Light rain should begin across the area after 12z Mon, transitioning into a more moderate rain after 15z Mon. As the system moves in, CIGs will gradually fall to low-end VFR early Monday morning, with a 40-60% chance for MVFR CIGs along the coast and northern Willamette Valley after 18-20z Mon. Chances for MVFR CIGs are lower (20%) for the central and southern Valley. Moderate to heavy rain at times may bring VIS down to 4SM-5SM from 18z Mon to 03z Tue. A thermal trough tonight will bring more east-northeasterly winds under 10 kt. An exception is the far eastern Portland Metro (KTTD), where easterly winds may gust up to 20 kt. Winds remain light and become variable on Monday as the thermal trough breaks down and pressure gradients ease. However, later in the forecast period the low pressure center will approach the central Oregon coast, which will increase southerly winds at KONP and KEUG. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR with high clouds tonight. CIGs lowering to low-end VFR early Monday morning ahead of the next system with rain returning after 12-15z Mon. 40-60% chance for MVFR CIGs after 19-21z Mon and lasting through 03z Tue. Offshore pressure gradients maintain light easterly winds around 5-7 kt through the TAF period. -10 && .MARINE...Brief high pressure passes overhead today into Monday. Winds will turn north to northeast and increase as a thermal trough forms over the coast through tonight. Seas are expected to remain around 11-13 ft at 13-14 seconds through much of the period. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 4 PM PST Monday. Additionally, with a low pressure system potentially moving through our southern waters on Monday and bringing a 50-60% chance for wind gusts over 34 kt, a Gale Watch has been issued from 4 PM Monday to 1 AM Tuesday for the inner and outer waters from Cape Foulweather to Florence OR. An active pattern will return during the middle of this week as a couple of frontal systems bring strong Gales or even Storm force winds, along with elevated seas. Looking at 24 hour probabilities for wind gusts, there is an 80 to 90% chance for Gale Force winds (gusts > 34 kt) in the far outer waters on Tuesday then spreading over all of the coastal waters for Wednesday and Thursday. The probability for Storm Force winds (gusts > 48 kt) is around 25-50% chance each day Tuesday through Thursday. Note that higher probabilities will stay elevated along the inner waters during the duration of these weather systems. Seas are also expected to increase, with mainly wind driven seas pushing into the mid to upper teens by Wednesday and lasting into Thursday. Guidance currently suggests a 5-10% chance that seas will exceed 20 ft. There is still plenty of uncertainty in exact details but the active pattern is expected to persist.~12/03 && .BEACH HAZARDS...A westerly swell of 11-14 ft at 14-15 seconds will bring a high threat of sneaker waves through Monday along the North and Central Oregon Coast, and the South Washington Coast. Caution should be used when in or near the water. Always keep an eye on the waves, and be especially watchful of children and pets. Those participating in razor clam digs should exercise caution. Additionally, there is a Coastal Flood Advisory for minor tidal overflow flooding during high tide from 10 AM to 2 PM Wednesday for the South Washington Coast, Clatsop County Coast, and Tillamook County Coast. Minor flooding, up to 1 foot above ground level, during high tides is expected in the low lying areas near bays, sloughs, and the lower reaches of the coastal rivers. Expect flooding along portions of Highway 101, including near Raymond, Seaside, and Fraser Road in Tillamook County. Coastal residents in the warned area should be alert for rising water, and take appropriate action to protect life and property. Remain out of flood waters to avoid hazardous swimming conditions, and never drive on flooded roads. && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 2 PM PST Wednesday for ORZ101-102. WA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM to 2 PM PST Wednesday for WAZ201. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ210-251>253- 271>273. Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for PZZ253-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

724 FXUS66 KMFR 030505 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 905 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 .UPDATE...Aviation Discussion Updated. && .AVIATION...03/06Z TAFs...Lingering boundary layer moisture and stable conditions will allow areas of low clouds and patchy fog to develop in valleys west of the Cascades tonight. This is expected to bring IFR/LIFR tonight, including at Roseburg, Medford and Grants Pass. Confidence is high for low ceilings at Roseburg and moderate for IFR/LIFR at Medford and Grants Pass. Along the coast, from the Cascades east and over northern California, expect mainly VFR tonight. Monday morning, an approaching front will spread clouds into the area with rain developing along the coast, then rain spreading inland during the afternoon and evening. This will bring IFR/MFR conditions to the coast late Monday morning through Monday evening. Additionally, as winds increase aloft, expect a period of wind shear along the coast late Monday morning and early afternoon before winds become gusty at the surface. For inland areas, expect low clouds to lift to VFR in the mid morning. Then, high resolution models indicate that gusty winds will develop in the afternoon at most all area TAF sites, strongest at the coast. Areas of MFR ceilings will spread inland west of the Cascades in the late afternoon and evening as rain spreads inland. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 215 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025/ DISCUSSION...An active pattern will continue through the next several days, with only a few breaks here and there all the way into next weekend. There will be several systems impacting the area between now and next weekend: the first a compact surface low passing just offshore Monday, followed by a very robust system Tuesday into early Wednesday, followed by yet another front around Thursday, then finally another system arrives late next weekend. Wet and windy weather will accompany nearly all of these systems, but winter weather will not be too much of a concern given the expected higher snow levels. The big change in the forecast focuses on Monday. Yesterday, model suites depicted a slow moving warm front moving north into the region then nearly stalling out, producing light rain and breezes Monday into Tuesday. Today, those same suites have nearly unanimously agreed on the development of a compact surface low offshore tonight, that then quickly slides right up to the southern Oregon coast before passing onshore just to our north. These lows can be very impactful, but are also notoriously difficult to forecast. There is a chance that the models switch up again tonight, but a glance at satellite imagery offshore does show a little swirl of clouds beginning to form up right where the models expect, so confidence is better than expected. This low will sweep up the coast Monday afternoon, and model pressure gradients suggest that high winds are possible for much of the coast, but are almost guaranteed for the capes and headlands, as well as some of our more exposed coastline. Have issued a High Wind Warning for those portions of the coast, with the idea that strong winds could spread to other areas as well depending on the track and strength of the low. Breezy winds are expected across the area with this low, but are not expected to be impactful at this time. Also, the system will bring a burst of rain, again concentrated along and west of the coastal mountains. Winds die down and most areas should see precipitation come to an end Monday night, but the break will be brief. The most impactful system in the forecast is then set to arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday, with a intense front and a substantial moisture plume bringing strong winds and heavy precipitation to southern Oregon and far northern California. The surface low on Monday has altered the pattern sightly with some of the downstream systems, with some minor changes in timing and intensity, but only slightly. With surface pressure gradients ranging roughly between -6 and -8 mb across the area, and with 700mb winds of 50 to 70 kts, it still looks likely that wind headlines will be necessary, especially along the coast, in the Shasta Valley, and across the East Side. The negative tilt in the upper level trough also suggests that that stronger winds could impact portions of the West Side as well, including the I-5 corridor from Ashland to Medford, and in some of the other roughly south/north oriented valleys. Meanwhile, moisture transport values for this front, as measured by IVT, a function of wind and humidity, are expected to reach values of 1000 to 1250 (a typical front would average about 500). This would be considered a strong atmospheric river, or a rather classic "Pineapple Express," as the moisture plume originates from the tropics near Hawai`i. A substantial amount of rain is possible for much of the area, especially along the coast and in Siskiyou County. However, the front is a fast mover, and some locations, such as the Rogue Valley near Medford and much of the East Side, will see lesser amounts due to significant downsloping winds off the Siskiyous and Cascades. While widespread flooding is not expected at this time, we will likely see nuisance type flooding with ponding on roadways and blocked drains due to recently fallen leaves. Additionally, King Tides are expected Nov 5-7 (Wednesday through Friday) which could bring additional impacts to the coast as this system enters the region, especially with heavy rains putting additional water into area rivers and estuaries. Lastly, snow levels will remain high through next week, between 6000 and 8000 feet, so we are not expecting any impactful winter weather. Another robust front arrives Thursday, and although it looks weaker than the previous one, most model guidance suites are depicting somewhat similar potential for impactful winds and rain. This storm, however, will coincide with the highest King Tides around noon on Thursday. Ocean level models are depicting a small storm surge with the event, along with high surf conditions which will push water into local bays and estuaries, which will make tidal influences even stronger. Some localized coastal flooding is possible, particularly for low lying areas and roads around Coos Bay, and erosion along area beaches will be a concern. After a brief break Friday into Saturday, we are seeing the signs of another frontal system late Saturday into Sunday. While the model suites agree on a brief period of ridging and dry weather around roughly Saturday, there is quite a bit of variation in model guidance regarding that next storm system at this time range, so confidence is low. Confidence remain high, however, that the active storm pattern will continue for the foreseeable future. -BPN MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, November 2, 2025...A mix of active weather and impactful swell looks to support unsettled to chaotic seas through the week and into next weekend. For today, continuing northwest swell will support steep seas in all waters through Monday afternoon. A new feature has developed in forecast guidance for Monday. A compact area of low pressure looks to move over the area from late Monday morning to early Tuesday morning. This low will bring gusty southerly winds as it moves from south to north. The strongest winds are most likely to be north of Cape Blanco and within 30 nm of shore under a coastal jet. Winds in this jet may exceed 45 kts. As the path of this low has some variability and with near-gale to gale gusts forecast for most waters, a Gale Warning has been issued to cover all area waters for Monday evening through Tuesday morning to ensure awareness of possible hazardous conditions. Conditions may briefly improve later Tuesday morning before a significant front approaches. Winds increase on Tuesday afternoon and peak early Wednesday morning. Widespread gale gusts are expected and may approach 50 kt in outer waters. Additionally, marine thunderstorms may develop on Wednesday morning. Winds ease Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but very steep and hazardous long-period swell follows through the day. High surf is expected, with current guidance building 22-26 ft surf heights. King Tides are expected on Thursday, which may increase the impact of hazardous conditions. Bar crossings may become especially dangerous and fishing infrastructure may be vulnerable. Finally, a third front will bring additional gusty southerly winds on Wednesday afternoon and evening. These gusts could approach gale speeds, adding to an already chaotic time period. The Tuesday afternoon-Thursday evening period will receive full hazard products in the near future, but additional guidance will help to improve the timing and of those products and the expected conditions. Weather activity eases on Friday and Saturday, but lingering swell is likely to support steep to very steep and hazardous seas into the first half of the weekend. Active weather may return later in the weekend or early next week. -TAD BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 200 PM PDT Sunday, November 2, 2025...Hazardous beach conditions are possible on Thursday as a strong storm is expected to bring a large long period west swell to the coast. This may result in large breaking waves of around 23 to 26 ft. High Surf conditions may be elevated by high "King" tides during this time period. This situation may create hazardous conditions along the Southern Oregon Coast on Thursday. Impacts could include large breaking waves within the surf zone, which could inundate beaches and low lying shorelines as well as damage exposed coastal infrastructure. Waves could wash over rocks and jetties, and sweep unsuspecting people out to see. During high surf conditions, avoid area beaches and exposed coastal areas. Never turn your back on the ocean! Additionally, low lying streets susceptible to impacts from King tides and high surf may become flooded. Never drive through flooded waters. While there is still some uncertainty in the exact details, this looks to be a potentially dangerous situation setting up along the coast. We will continue to monitor and update the forecast as this storm nears. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...High Wind Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM PST Monday for ORZ021-022. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST Monday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning from 1 PM Monday to 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356- 370-376. && $$

132 FXUS66 KEKA 030830 CCA AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED National Weather Service Eureka CA 1230 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Rain is expected to return this afternoon and evening for Del Norte and northern Humboldt and then spread southward overnight. Risk for strong and damaging wind gusts will increase late Tuesday afternoon and persist through early Wednesday morning. Widespread heavy rain will increase the risk for urban and small stream flooding late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Periodic rain is expected to continue into Friday morning before rain tapers off later on Friday into Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and gusty south winds returns on Monday. - Strong Atmospheric River to bring strong and damaging winds, heavy rainfall and a risk for urban and small stream flooding Tuesday night and Wednesday. - Higher than normal tides next week with storm surge, promoting coastal flooding expected in Humboldt Bay-North Spit and Crescent City. - Periods of rain expected to continue Thursday through Thursday night and then taper off Friday through Saturday. .DISCUSSION... Wet and unsettled weather returns this afternoon and evening for Del Norte and Humboldt as the next in a series of fronts with high PWATS impacts the area with rain and gusty south winds. This first system will be driven by a compact surface low swinging northeastward toward the Oregon Coast this afternoon. Southerly winds will increase along the coast ahead of the frontal boundary Monday morning. Strong southerly winds are forecast to develop over the coastal headlands and exposed ridges in Del Norte and Humboldt counties in the afternoon through early evening. Gusts from 35 to 45 mph is expected, especially in Del Norte County. HREF ensemble mean has peak wind gusts near 40 mph. Bumped winds up around Pt St George which may indeed gust to 45 mph or so. High-resolution models suggest a period of moderate to heavy rainfall arriving late afternoon for Del Norte and evening for SW Humboldt. Extreme hourly rates over 0.50in/hr will possible, 1 in 10 odds, over the Del Norte Mountains this afternoon and over the King Range this evening. Models continue to consistently show the front and plume of moisture sagging southward into southern Humboldt and NW Mendocino overnight. Moderate to heavy rain will likely persist overnight in southern Humboldt and NW Mendocino as the boundary eventually stalls by early Tuesday. Southeastern Mendocino and southern Lake may only get a few hundredths or a trace of rain by 4 AM. The next shortwave trough will rapidly approach on Tuesday and rain will once again increase throughout from south to north during the morning and afternoon on Tuesday. A second, stronger frontal system will intensify Tuesday night into Wednesday as a potent upstream trough deepens and a surface cyclone spins up offshore in response. Ensemble means and deterministic GFS and ECMWF remain in a good agreement with the deep trough becoming negatively tilted by 12Z Wednesday. This will send a plume of high PWATS and high IVT into NW CA. Ensemble means indicate a long duration moderate AR with a shorter duration of strong AR conditions. Widespread heavy rainfall is highly probable. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur. Storm motion appears to rapid for intense rates over 1 in/hr sitting in one spot. Strong damaging south winds are also probable (60-90% chance) as surface pressure gradient tightens Tuesday night and a low level jet at 925mb up to 70 kts develops along the coast. A well-mixed boundary layer near or along the surface front will allow for higher momentum air to mix down to the surface. There is a 40-60% chance of gusts greater than 40 mph for the lowest elevations. For higher elevations and coastal headlands, NBM indicates a 60-90% chance for wind gusts greater than 45 mph in Del Norte and Humboldt counties. ECMWF ensemble mean 6-hourly wind gusts are over 50 mph for the Del Norte Coast, specifically CEC and over 40 to 50 mph for the greater Humboldt Bay area, ACV, EKA and FOT. There are more extreme members from 60-75 mph in the ECMWF distribution. Stronger wind gusts over 55 mph are highly probable over the coastal mountains. A high wind watch has been issued as this appears to be a highly anomalous wind event for this time of year. It may end up as a wind advisory for the lower elevations, however would not be surprised if some the higher elevations venturi-effect RAWS gusts over 70 mph, specifically in SW Humboldt in the King Range. Otherwise, gusts from 35-55 mph appears more likely for the population centers. Winds this strong can still rip branches off trees and may even bring a few weaker trees down. The watch or advisory may need to be expanded into southern interior Mendocino and Lake. A watch for urban and small stream flooding may also be necessary Tue night into Wed. Models remain consistent with widespread heavy rain increasing Tue night into Wed morning. HREF and individual CAMS should shed more light on the rain intensity. Global models have been hitting this hard for the last 5 to 7 days, just the timing has varied. Another plume of moisture will take aim on the Pacific NW Thu-Fri and bring another round of moderate to locally heavy rain to NW CA. Once again there will be a risk for urban and small stream flooding as well as rock and mudslides in steep terrain. A break in the rain is forecast later on Friday into Saturday as the mid level flow amplifies in advance of another trough that is forecast to dig over the central Pacific. This next trough may bring more light to moderate rain as early as Sat. The frontal boundary may stall offshore or slow down and take til Sun or Mon to arrive. && .AVIATION...06Z TAFs...Diurnal drying, and increasing southerly winds continue to inhibit most fog development outside of the wind protected interior valleys into early Monday. Shallow stratus and potentially brief fog visibility is forecast to increase along the coast early Monday morning as southerly winds strengthen. KACV has already experienced periods of shallow fog early this morning. Southerly to southeasterly winds will continue to strengthen early Monday morning. These winds will be initially stronger over Del Norte County, where there is the lowest probability for IFR or lower CIGS/VIS into the early morning. The winds will be slower to increase farther south along the North Coast. However, winds will increase enough early to mid Monday morning to mostly prevent lasting fog formation at ACV. There is some indication that a shallow band of stratus could advect up the Russian River Valley and into UKI early Monday morning from the southerly flow. As of 06z Monday, stratus has not formed around KSTS and winds remain calm. HREF indicates a 20% chance for ceilings below 1000ft at KUKI by 13z or 14z. JJW/JLW && .MARINE... A large, long period WNW swell will slowly subside over the next few days. Northerly winds will trend much lower and continue to shift more southerly into Monday morning. Combined sea heights of slightly over 10 feet will continue from the short period seas and fading WNW swell. An area of low pressure will clip the waters Monday. This system has trended farther south increasing the magnitude of southerly winds for our waters. Winds are expected to gust to Gale strength Monday afternoon and evening for the northern outer zone 470 as the low clips the waters. A Gale Warning has been applied to this zone for Monday. A strong frontal system will begin moving in Tuesday when southerly winds quickly strengthen. Strong Gale conditions are forecast, with Storm force gusts over 50 kts Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Short period seas will build to 15 to 17 ft Wednesday in response to the Storm force winds. A large post frontal westerly swell will then build in Thursday as southerly winds increase again from a secondary trough. Gale criteria may be met from this second system. JJW/JLW && .HYDROLOGY... Periods of locally heavy rain late this afternoon through tonight. Widespread heavy rain expected late Tue into Wed and potential for urban and small stream flooding will increase. More rain is probable for Del Norte and Humboldt Thu and Fri, but influx of moisture appears somewhat lower. This will need to be watched for minor flooding too. All main stem rivers are forecast to remain below monitor/action stage through at least Wed morning. && .COASTAL FLOODING... Starting on Tuesday, astronomical high tides will approach or exceed 8 ft at the North Spit tide gauge. The highest tides, at around 8.5 ft will in occur in the late mornings through midday on Thursday and Friday. Moderate to strong southerly winds are forecast through this timeframe and will further contribute to a positive tidal anomaly. Water levels may reach 10 ft at North Spit when high tides align with the strong southerly winds. Currently, the strongest southerly winds are forecast Wednesday morning, but a slightly higher tide is forecast Thursday. Expect Coastal Flood Advisory issuance, with the possibility of a Coastal Flood Warning around Humboldt Bay if confidence increase of the southerly wind anomaly. The high tides, heavy rainfall, and tidal anomaly may require an expansion of an advisory along much of the coast Wednesday and Thursday. JJW/JLW && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning for CAZ101-103-109. High Wind Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for CAZ102-104>106-110. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST Monday for PZZ450. Gale Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning for PZZ450-455. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Monday for PZZ455-475. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST Monday for PZZ470. Gale Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM PST Monday for PZZ470. Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

123 FXUS66 KMTR 031205 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 405 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1224 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025 - Preparations for upcoming storm should be prioritized for today in Northern Sonoma and Napa. Areas south of Santa Rosa still have time Tuesday. - Mostly beneficial rainfall beginning early Wednesday morning. Slight potential for localized nuisance flooding in the North Bay. - Wind Advisory in effect late Tuesday night through Wednesday afternoon for North Bay, East Bay, SF Peninsula, and Santa Cruz Mtns. Gusty wind 35-45 mph with potential for brief 55 mph gusts along frontal passage Wednesday morning. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1224 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025 (Today and tonight) Another morning of mostly clear conditions with isolated patches of fog along the coast. Temperatures return to normal today as onshore flow is reinforced and we start to feel the effects of the approaching weather system. We will see the marine layer deepen through the next couple of days as additional moisture is advected into the region. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1224 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025 (Tuesday through Sunday) Tuesday will be our transition day into impactful weather. A potent early season system will be digging its way into our region. Light showers may begin as early as late Tuesday morning across the northern reaches of Napa and Sonoma counties. These showers will mostly be the result of orographic lift over the terrain and will not contain the heaviest of the rain that we`re expecting. How much rain we see out of these early showers will be important for the rest of the event since they may increase the likelihood of local flooding once the heavier rainfall arrive Wednesday morning. Most of these early, prefrontal showers should remain well to our north, but where this axis of enhanced moisture transport sets up is still a bit uncertain. By late Tuesday, the cold front dives southward, bringing moderate to heavy rainfall and wind with it. Winds increase through the night Tuesday with the heaviest rain and strongest wind expected to push through the North Bay in the early morning hours just before sunrise, and the rest of the Bay Area by sunrise. Rainfall totals look to be mostly beneficial with a slight chance for localized nuisance flooding in the North Bay, especially dependent on how much warm sector rain we see on Tuesday. A spread of 1-2" for the North Bay, isolated up to 2.5" in the northern Sonoma coastal range. The rest of the Bay Area will likely end up more in the 0.50-1.0" range, and 0.25-0.50" for the Santa Clara Valley and Central Coast. Regarding wind...we have issued a Wind Advisory for the North Bay, East Bay, SF Peninsula, and Santa Cruz Mtns in effect from 10 PM Tuesday to 4 PM Wednesday. Once again not much change in the forecast, so we`re just consolidating our confidence intervals at this point. Overall looking at gusts to 35-45 mph across these areas with isolated gusts to 55 mph as the cold front passes through Wednesday morning. This serves as a good reminder and now is a good time to clean up any loose tree branches and other debris that may be tossed around by the wind. Be mindful for the morning commute and home/personal safety if you live in or travel through treed areas. It`s never to early in the season to be vigilant. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 402 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025 Currently a mixed bag of LIFR-VFR at the terminals with patchy LIFR stratus and fog being reported across the region and unfortunately beginning to rapidly expand. APC, HAF, MRY, SNS, and STS are expected to prevail LIFR through mid-to-late morning. Highest confidence in LVK, OAK, and SFO remaining VFR through the morning. An isolated patch of stratus on the south side of SJC will likely bring at least intermittent IFR conditions to the terminal. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with westerly flow. IFR/LIFR stratus is encroaching the terminal from the north/west, but due to the shallow nature it will not be able to sneak through the San Bruno Gap. Moderate confidence that VFR will hang on through the morning. Winds will back through the TAF period. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently LIFR with southerly flow at MRY and LIFR with fog and calm conditions at SNS. MRY is expected to deteriorate to become foggy as well with the terminals able to mix out the thin cloud layer by mid-to-late morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 402 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025 Moderate northwesterly breezes with moderate to rough seas will prevail today. Rain showers Tuesday will turn into widespread rainfall and a slight chance for thunderstorms Wednesday. Southerly winds will increase Tuesday with near-gale force to gale force sustained winds expected into Wednesday. Widespread gale force gusts are expected during this time with isolated storm force gusts possible. Seas will build to become very rough for the inner waters and outer waters Wednesday and Thursday. && .BEACHES... Issued at 402 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025 A long period northwesterly swell will continue to bring an increased risk for sneaker waves, rip currents, and breaking waves of up to 20 feet to Pacific Coast beaches today. High surf conditions are possible, especially at the west and northwest facing beaches. Remember, sneaker waves can unexpectedly run significantly farther up the beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Rip currents are typically more frequent and stronger in the vicinity of jetties, inlets, and piers. Swimmers should always swim near a lifeguard. Stay off the rocks, remain out of the water to avoid hazardous swimming conditions, and never turn your back on the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 2 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-506-508-529-530. Wind Advisory from 10 PM Tuesday to 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ006-502>506-508>510-512-515. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm- SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 PM PST Wednesday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Gale Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm- Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 9 PM PST Tuesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

111 FXUS66 KOTX 031206 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 406 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Weather remains active through the week. - Periods of winter driving conditions over Cascade passes. && .SYNOPSIS... Several storm systems will impact the region through the week, each bringing valley rain and high mountain snow. Mountain passes could have winter driving conditions through the week. Breezy winds across the Basin Tuesday and Friday afternoons. && .DISCUSSION... Monday through Friday: Active weather is expected through the workweek as multiple weather systems pass through the Pacific Northwest, bringing several periods of rain and high mountain snow. Models have come into better agreement for a surface low to approach the Oregon coast on Monday and then move into western Washington Monday night. This will bring the first round of precipitation of the week to the Inland Northwest. Given the track of the low, highest confidence (greater than 70% chance) for rain will be across central Washington Cascades stretching northeast across the Columbia Basin through north Idaho, with lower chances (30-50% chance) for north-central Washington. As the low moves inland Monday night, easterly flow into the eastern slopes of the Cascades combined with snow levels 2500-3500 feet. This will support snow in the east slopes mountains, with some uncertainty in snow amounts for Stevens Pass. Currently, the NBM has snow amounts for Stevens Pass most likely falling within the 2 to 6 inch range. Light snow (less than an inch) may even fall in the upper Wenatchee valley (Leavenworth/Plain) though marginal low temperatures (31-33F) may limit accumulations. A transient upper-level ridge Tuesday afternoon will bring a temporary break in active weather. This is short-lived as a deep- upper level low approaches the coast Tuesday night into Wednesday. Precipitation chances begin to increase from south to north Tuesday night as a warm front and an atmospheric river lifts northward. Deep southerly flow aloft along with low level easterly flow into the Cascades will support heavier precipitation totals into the east slopes of the Cascades Wednesday morning until the trailing cold or occluded front moves through Wednesday afternoon and shifts the focus to the northeast WA and north Idaho mountains. Snow levels will rise through the night to 6000 feet with snow transitioning to snow at the mountain passes. Winds will be breezy out of the east to southeast Tuesday night through Wednesday morning before shifting to the south Wednesday night. Passing shortwaves Wednesday night into Thursday will support lingering precipitation primarily in the mountains. Next round of widespread precipitation arrives sometime between Thursday night and Friday morning though there are uncertainties in the models on the exact timing. This system will likely have a more westerly trajectory, favoring precipitation in the Cascades, far eastern Washington, and the Idaho Panhandle. Models and their ensembles are suggesting for a stronger cold front to move through, bringing the best chances of the week for impactful winds. Right now, the NBM gives a 50-70% chance for wind gusts greater than 40 mph across the Columbia Basin, Palouse, Spokane/Coeur dAlene area. Additionally, this would bring lowering snow levels, especially over the North Cascades. The NBM is currently giving Washington Pass a 50% chance for greater than 10 inches of snow Thursday night into Friday. Saturday and Sunday: Models are beginning to hint on drier conditions this weekend with a large upper-level ridge building over the west coast. /vmt && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: A weak surface low will track into northwest Oregon late this afternoon into this evening. Moisture out ahead of the low will stream in across the Northwest with progressively deteriorating conditions. Moisture will remain at mid to upper levels with VFR conditions through the morning before ceilings lower and surface visibility deteriorates and IFR conditions with rain becomes widespread by mid afternoon into Monday night. Winds will generally be light and from the east to northeast. .FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence remains high for VFR conditions through this morning. Confidence is high for widespread MVFR conditions in the afternoon deteriorating further with IFR conditions being prevalent overnight. The exception will be at the Lewiston Airport with a probability of only 20% of seeing IFR conditions Monday night. /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 45 36 45 38 52 40 / 70 90 60 70 90 80 Coeur d`Alene 42 36 44 38 49 41 / 80 90 80 80 90 100 Pullman 45 37 49 41 53 40 / 70 90 70 70 90 100 Lewiston 49 43 55 46 60 45 / 60 90 50 60 70 90 Colville 45 26 46 29 46 32 / 60 70 50 80 100 90 Sandpoint 42 32 44 34 45 38 / 80 90 80 90 100 100 Kellogg 43 39 45 40 50 42 / 90 100 90 90 90 100 Moses Lake 48 37 49 40 54 38 / 40 80 40 80 90 20 Wenatchee 45 38 47 41 49 39 / 60 80 50 90 100 50 Omak 47 32 48 38 48 38 / 50 50 30 80 100 50 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

400 FXUS66 KPDT 031111 AFDPDT KEY POINTS 1. Lingering snowfall in the WA Cascades becoming widespread rain beginning Monday morning. 2. Persistent wet weather pattern through the week 3. Breezy winds Wednesday through end of the week DISCUSSION...Monday through Monday night...Current satellite shows some mid level clouds moving across the northern and southwest portion of the CWA. Clouds will continue to build through the day as models show the leading edge f the upper level system continuing to move closer to shore. Models show the leading edge of the upper level system to begin to affect the WA Cascades beginning after 10AM. NBM shows snow levels to reach as low as 2500 feet with models showing precipitation accumulations of up to 2 inches along Snoqualmie Pass over the course of the day today (Monday). Raw ensembles show between 50-70% probabilities of up to 2.5 inches of snow expected along Snoqualmie Pass with Stampede and Chinook Passes seeing 80% or greater probabilities of 3 to 4 inches over the next 24 hours. Models show the system continuing to push onshore bringing southwest flow aloft to the region and pushing across the area from the northwest bring probabilities of widespread rain after 5PM with almost the locations seeing at least 0.10 inches of rain. 40-60% probabilities of 0.15 inches through the Columbia Basin, Gorge, foothills of the southern and northern Blues and north central OR. 70-90% probabilities of near 0.20 inches through Yakima and Kittitas Valley as well as below 2500 feet on the eastern slopes of the WA Cascades. Tuesday through Wednesday afternoon...Models continue to be in firm agreement through Tuesday night with the progression of the system. Models show the system to begin to flatten out to a more zonal or westerly flow aloft Tuesday with lingering showers across the western portion of the CWA affecting mostly the eastern slopes of the OR & WA Cascades through the western potion of the Columbia Basin, central OR and portions of the Ochoco-John Day Highlands Tuesday and continuing through Wednesday morning before becoming mainly mountain showers with light lower elevation rain. Raw ensembles show the aforementioned areas will see 40-70% chances of near 0.20 inches of rain while the remaining areas will see light rain both Tuesday and Wednesday with ensembles showing 30-60% probabilities of near 0.10 inches Tuesday and again through Wednesday afternoon. Accompanying the next system will be a surface front that will bring breezy conditions across the region Tuesday and will persist through Wednesday. Tuesday, breezy winds of near 20 mph sustained will be through central OR becoming a bit more widespread Wednesday and the models show the front to lift across the region. Raw ensembles show 30-50% chances across central OR and across portions of the Ochco- John Day Highlands before becoming more widespread Wednesday through north central OR and along the foothills of the Blues. Continued 30- 50% probabilities of sustained winds of 20-25 mph. Lastly, models remain in relatively good agreement with this system persisting through Thursday with persistent rainfall. Amounts are a bit more out of sync with the clusters struggling when it comes to the arrival of the next heavier rain amounts. Regardless, models are in agreement that a wet pattern will continue to persist over the region through at least Saturday. 90 AVIATION...12Z TAFs...VFR conditions will persist through the forecast period with CIGs beginning to move in across the region and remaining 5-10kft. Winds will be below 10kts through the period and mostly terrain driven. Rain is expected to impact TAF sites DLS/YKM/PSC beginning 18-19Z fro YKM/DLS respectively and after 22Z for PSC as the system moves across the region. Put Prob30 elsewhere as models are uncertain of timing and if rain will reach the far eastern portions of the region. The system is moving in a more NW to SE direction and will likely miss RDM/BDN only allowing for mainly drizzle so a Prob30 was also added at those sites beginning late in the period. 90 .

878 FXUS65 KREV 030949 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 149 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Breezy winds return today and Tuesday with light showers possible from northeast CA into far northwest NV. * Strong winds are increasingly probable on Wednesday with significant impacts to travel and recreation. * Rain and high elevation snow is expected Wednesday with lingering showers near the Oregon border through late week. Drier weather with some warming returns next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... The high pressure ridge that gave us the warm and sunny weather over the weekend will give way to a Pacific storm over the next few days. The initial wave of energy will bring increased breezes from late this morning through Tuesday, with Sierra ridge level winds peaking tonight into Tuesday morning. Winds aren`t expected to be unusually strong, but gusts of 25-35 mph will bring choppy lake waters, more likely for Tahoe where a Lake Wind Advisory has been issued. Light showers are also possible across NE California into N Washoe County late tonight into Tuesday morning, but minimal rainfall amounts are expected. High temperatures through Tuesday will step back from the weekend`s warmth, but remain above average (mainly mid 60s-lower 70s today, then down about 3-7 degrees north of US-50 on Tuesday). The main storm pivots through the region on Wednesday, and will bring periods of strong winds, wetting rain, and high elevation snowfall. Our top concern with this storm will be strong winds and associated impacts to travel and recreation late Tuesday night through Wednesday. A belt of robust 50-70 kt 700 mb flow will overspread the region, supporting a 50-80% chance of wind gusts reaching or exceeding 45 mph regionwide. Damaging downslope wind gusts (greater than 60 mph) are also attainable (20-50% odds) especially along the US-395 corridor from far western NV into Mono County, and around the Tahoe basin, so we will issue a High Wind Watch for these areas. With the storm`s current timing, the strongest winds would likely occur in the early-mid morning hours on Wednesday from US-50 northward, then continue through the afternoon south of US-50. Areas of blowing dust will also become a concern for parts of northwest and west central NV, mainly downwind of deserts and sinks. The trajectory of Wednesday`s storm will keep the region in the warmer air mass (although high temperatures will dip to the 50s-lower 60s across most areas west of US-95), translating to higher snow levels throughout the storm`s duration. Therefore, notable snowfall will likely be confined to elevations above 8000 feet where odds of 4" or more of total snowfall reaches up to 90%. While this storm isn`t expected to be a prolific snow producer, there may be some travel disruptions through Carson, Ebbetts, Tioga, and Sonora passes. Elsewhere, wetting rain is likely west of US-395 with potential for 1 to 1.5 inches of liquid along the Sierra crest west of Tahoe northward to far western Lassen County. Precip amounts drop off quickly going eastward with possibly a short period of rain during the day Wednesday into the Reno-Carson-Minden urban areas, with west central NV and eastern Mono County staying mostly dry. Rain and snow tapers off Thursday and Friday, although some lingering showers are possible near the Oregon border and NE CA with a weaker secondary shortwave. High pressure rebuilds across the western states, returning warmer and mostly dry weather for next weekend. MJD && .AVIATION... Winds increase later today through Tuesday (SW surface gusts of 20-30 kts, with FL100 wind gusts peaking near 55 kt tonight into early Tuesday), which will bring increased mountain wave turbulence and LLWS impacts. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at the main terminals through Tuesday. More widespread wind impacts including significant mountain wave activity/turbulence and longer periods of LLWS are likely for Wednesday with potential for strong wind gusts of 40+ kt at the main terminals and FL100 wind gusts of 80+ kt. Rain chances also increase during the day Wednesday with MVFR CIGS/VIS most likely for KTVL/KTRK, and terrain obscurations at all main terminals. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM PST Tuesday NVZ002. High Wind Watch from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night NVZ002-003. CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM PST Tuesday CAZ072. High Wind Watch from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night CAZ072-073. && $$

579 FXUS66 KSTO 022055 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1255 PM PST Sun Nov 2 2025 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm weather prevails through Monday - Active weather returns for the middle of this week with showers, gusty southerly winds, isolated thunderstorms, high elevation snow showers and cooler temperatures. - Heaviest precipitation is expected north of I-80 .DISCUSSION... Today...Dry and warm weather continue across interior NorCal this afternoon, along with light, diurnal and terrain driven winds continuing. Monday - Tuesday... Dry and warm weather continues to prevail through the day Monday. Light winds are generally expected. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 70s across the Valley, foothills and mountains of interior NorCal. A relatively weak system will begin bring precipitation into Shasta County by Monday evening, with chances spreading into areas north of I-80 overnight. Wednesday - Friday...A deep trough moves in Wednesday bringing widespread rain across the region, with the best potential for periods of moderate to heavy rain north of I-80. Models continue to focus the greatest precipitation amounts over Shasta County, the Northeast Foothills, the northern Sierra, the southern Cascades, and the Coastal Range receiving the highest rain amounts. Forecast rainfall amounts continue to trend highest over the mountains of Shasta County. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible Wednesday afternoon and evening. This system is relatively warm so will have higher snow levels, generally above 7500 feet with this system. As a result the bulk of snowfall will be at higher elevations, such as at Lassen National Park and the higher peaks of the Sierra and southern Cascades, where several inches of wet snow are possible. Minor impacts include wet/slick roads in the mountains Wednesday night as snow levels briefly fall to 7000 feet. Gusty southerly winds are expected over the Sacramento Valley, the Delta, the Sierra and the southern Cascades through the day Wednesday, with gusts to around 45 mph. Lingering scattered showers mainly north of I-80 continue through Thursday, with another system focused over the northern mountains and northern Sacramento Valley on Friday bringing additional chances of showers. Cooler temperatures are also expected mid to late week. As always remember to check your local weather forecast at weather.gov for updates. .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Light, variable surface winds below 12 knots. Slight chance of shower after 12z monday mainly for areas in northern Sacramento Valley. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

055 FXUS65 KMSO 030933 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 233 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: -Active weather pattern this coming week. Current radar and satellite images show a narrow band of moisture streaming over western Montana this morning. This band is expected to produce light snowfall, mainly for locations along and north of I-90 through mid-morning. Only minimal, if any, impacts are anticipated with this initial surge of moisture. Later this afternoon, a secondary push of moisture will move over the Northern Rockies. Snow levels will be gradually increasing during this time and are expected to be at or above pass levels by 2 PM MST this afternoon. One area that needs to be watched closely is extreme northwest Montana, such as the Yaak Region, Troy, Libby, and Eureka. Snow levels may remain low enough for precipitation to remain snow through Tuesday morning for these locations. Currently, snow accumulations are expected to be light, with anywhere from 1 to 3 inches of snow by Tuesday morning for Lookout Pass. For the locations across northwest Montana mentioned above, there is a 50 to 60 percent probability for 1 to 2 inches. There is a slight chance, a 10 percent probability, that light to moderate impacts due to snow with up to 4 inches are possible for Troy, Libby, the Yaak, and Eureka. Another weak ridge develops over the region late Tuesday into Wednesday morning, bringing a break in precipitation. Then, a plume of moisture makes its way into the Northern Rockies Wednesday night into Thursday, producing widespread precipitation with snow levels lingering around 6,000 ft. The active pattern will remain in place through Saturday morning, with snow levels lowering to around 4,500 to 5,000 feet Friday and Saturday. Temperatures throughout the week appear to be running around 5 to 10 degrees above average for this time of year. && .AVIATION...Current radar and satellite images show a narrow band of moisture streaming over western Montana this morning. This band is expected to produce light snowfall, mainly for locations along and north of I-90 through mid-morning. Only minimal, if any, impacts are anticipated with this initial surge. A reinforcing shot of moisture will bring widespread precipitation to most of western Montana and north-central Idaho by 03/2100Z, remaining over the region through Tuesday afternoon. Snow levels are expected to remain above valley floors, except for extreme northwest Montana. Expect periods of lower ceilings and visibility for aviation sites KGPI, KMSO, and KHRF. Widespread mountain obscurations are expected through 04/2100Z. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

840 FXUS65 KBOI 031013 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 313 AM MST Mon Nov 3 2025 .SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...Today will be the last dry day before a series of systems moves through the Pacific Northwest. Highs today will be around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday, which will be nearly 10 degrees above normal. Surface winds will be breezy today through Tuesday as southwest flow aloft increases and a system approaches. High clouds will increase this afternoon ahead of the system. The system will bring rain and high mountain snow across northern areas tonight, then in southern areas by Tuesday morning. Snow levels will be 7500-9000 feet MSL tonight, then dip to 6000-8000 feet Tuesday morning. Strong southwest flow aloft will result in higher precipitation totals in the central Idaho mountains with 0.20-0.50" expected, locally up to 0.75". Lower amounts around 0.10" or less are expected elsewhere. The system will also cool high temperatures by 5-10 degrees. A warm front will then lift north across the area late Tuesday, bringing additional light precipitation and boosting snow levels up to around 8000 feet. A break in precipitation should develop late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning ahead of a deeper trough. This trough will push a cold front across our area on Wednesday. This will bring stronger winds, especially across portions of southeast Oregon and Idaho south of the Snake River where afternoon gusts 35-50 mph are expected. Precipitation will redevelop Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Strong west-southwest flow will bring moderate precipitation totals to the mountains with light amounts expected elsewhere. There is also a less than 15% chance of thunderstorms along and behind the front, although cloud cover and cool surface temperatures will limit potential. Snow levels will lower behind the front to 6000-7000 by late Wednesday night, with several inches of snow expected on higher peaks. .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...Colder air will move overhead Thursday morning as the trough passes to the east. Upper flow will gradually transition to northwesterly, with lingering precipitation expected over the higher terrain of northeast OR/west-central ID while other areas trend drier. The next Pacific trough will be quick to arrive by late Thursday, spreading a potent moisture plume into the region with a vertically stacked west- northwest flow. Winds will increase Thursday night and especially Friday as the trough moves overhead. Precipitation amounts may be considerable for favored upslope areas such as the west-central ID/Boise mountains, with approximately 70% chance of receiving at 0.50" or greater liquid equivalent in those areas. Meanwhile, some valley shadowing will be likely in this pattern due to moderately strong mid- level winds. The bulk of the colder air will remain north of the area with this storm, and therefore temperatures are expected to be within a few degrees of normal for both Thursday and Friday. Snow levels will oscillate between 6000-7500 feet MSL ahead of/during the trough passage. Light snow amounts are forecast above 6000 feet, with several inches forecast above 7000 feet. Precipitation should taper off Saturday morning as the trough exits and northwest flow develops ahead of a strengthening ridge. Drier and mild conditions are then expected for the rest of the weekend into early Monday as the ridge builds and moisture stays to the west and north. Temperatures will rise a few degrees above normal on Sunday/Monday. && .AVIATION...VFR, except patchy morning fog (KBKE). Showers moving in from NW to SE this evening through Tue. Mainly VFR for valleys, but periods of IFR/LIFR for mtns in precip/low clouds with mountains becoming obscured. Snow levels 6k-8k feet MSL, lowest to the NW. Potential for LLWS of 25-35 kt tonight/Tue morn. Surface winds: variable 5-12 kt, then SW-SE 5-15 kt this afternoon. Gusts 25- 35 kt in SE Oregon and near ID/NV border. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 25-40 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: SE 5-12 kt. Gusts around 20 kt late morning/early afternoon. Light rain arriving around 04/08Z, with less than 10% chance of MVFR. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...ST LONG TERM....SH AVIATION.....SH

531 FXUS65 KLKN 030801 AAA AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Elko NV 1201 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025 * High pressure will bring quiet and dry fall-like weather early this week * A weak weather system is expected to impact Northern Nevada during the mid-week portion of the forecast, resulting in breezy to windy conditions and light precipitation && .UPDATE... Issued at 1201 AM PST Mon Nov 3 2025 The current forecast is on track. No changes are required. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies remain mostly sunny today with temperatures well above normal. This pattern will continue into the mid-week period. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s today and Tuesday, with lows in the 20s and 30s. The ridge axis is forecast to shift east on Wednesday. An upper low pressure system will move into the Pacific Northwest and western United States. Breezy to locally windy conditions will develop Wednesday with southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 40 mph are expected. Temperatures will cool slightly but will remain in the 60s for the most part. Chances for precipitation will increase with most locales seeing light rain showers (fifteen to sixty percent chance) with the highest chances for seeing measurable rainfall in the north. General forecast amounts of rainfall are expected to be a trace to a tenth of an inch in the valleys with northern Elko and northern Humboldt counties seeing the highest amounts. Look for light, isolated showers during the overnight with lows in the 30s. A mainly west to east flow will develop Thursday. Cooler air will filter in with high temperatures reaching the 50s. Mainly isolated showers are expected in the north with little to no accumulation. Winds will continue to be breezy in the afternoon in the north with gusts to 25 mph. The threat for light, isolated showers will continue across the north with lows in the 20s and 30s. Models are showing upper level ridging across the forecast area for Friday through the weekend. This will bring dry conditions and highs in the 60s with lows in the 20s and 30s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence continues in a dry and fair weather forecast through the next few days. Increasing confidence of more active weather beginning in the mid-week. No changes to NBM grids at this time. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue through the upcoming 24 hour period. Winds will be breezy this afternoon with gusts to 25KT. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86