378 FXUS66 KSEW 041047 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 247 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure builds over the region this week, bringing unseasonably warm and dry conditions to western Washington along with morning fog. A return to cooler and wet conditions occurs over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Strong high pressure remains in control for dry and mild weather through the end of the week. Mid and high clouds are streaming overhead but we will see decreasing clouds this afternoon with conditions becoming clear. With the mild air mass in place, max temperatures will track above average with highs in the 50s to lower 60s through Friday. Overnight lows will be a few degrees cooler with 30s around the south sound. 33 && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...Wet and cooler weather returns over the weekend as the flow aloft turns to more zonal. Snow levels will lower Sunday night and Monday, around 3000 ft, with accumulating snowfall expected in the mountains and passes. Precipitation, heavy at times in the Olympics, will keep the Skokomish River in Mason County running high with minor flooding possible. More lowland rain and mountain snow moving through early next week due to a trough. 33 && .AVIATION...Southwest flow aloft through much of the TAF period. Previous patchy fog/low clouds from earlier this morning has since lifted to VFR as mid-high level clouds have become BKN-OVC. Still advertising some VCFG over Puget Sound terminals into the morning hours due to small dewpoint depressions but the window for widespread fog has likely closed this morning. So with that, VFR for much of the day as mid-high clouds associated with a front well-offshore continue to spill into the region. Gradients are relaxed, keeping surface winds light - below 5 kt with variable directions from terminal to terminal. Tonight, skies are favored to clear and open the door for fog development across area terminals. Expect sites like KOLM and KPWT to to under LIFR conditions but offshore flow may help to keep fog becoming totally widespread. KSEA...VFR currently with a BKN140 deck observed at the terminal. Confidence is leaning towards VFR maintaining throughout the day with light winds. Mid-high clouds will clear into the evening with fog development likely becoming a feature into early Thursday morning. Any fog that should form will burn off by midday Thursday. McMillian && .MARINE...SCA remains in effect for the coastal waters - primarily due to seas through at least Thursday. Surface high pressure will remain centered over the interior with a broad trough of low pressure offshore producing varying degrees of offshore flow across area waters. East winds may approach small craft advisory levels at the west entrance to the strait and adjacent coastal waters on Thursday. Active conditions well offshore will continue to produce hazardous seas over the coastal waters this week. A series of frontal systems will begin to reach area waters this weekend into next week with the next best chance of more widespread wind related headlines. Dense fog will be a possibility over the inland waters through next couple of mornings. McMillian && .HYDROLOGY...Heavier precipitation over the weekend and early next week will force rises on the Skokomish River in Mason County with the river close to minor flood stage. Flooding is not expected elsewhere over the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

684 FXUS66 KPQR 041205 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 405 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure is firmly established over the Pacific Northwest early this morning and will remain the dominant weather feature through the end of the work week. This pattern will support dry conditions, limited cloud cover outside of valley fog and low stratus, and unseasonably mild temperatures. Light winds and strong low-level inversions will promote areas of fog, frost and air stagnation in sheltered lowland valleys. In contrast, strengthening easterly flow through the Columbia River Gorge will lead to windy conditions in the eastern Portland/Vancouver Metro and adjacent terrain through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM...This morning observations indicate increasing low-level moisture trapped beneath the inversion, leading to fog and low stratus beginning to develop at Corvallis and Eugene. Expect continued fog development this morning, becoming prevalent across portions of the Willamette Valley where high level clouds have cleared. These conditions are favored in areas removed from terrain-driven flow, where winds remain light and radiational cooling is efficient. Fog and stratus are expected to gradually erode later this morning, though some locations may see slow improvement due to the strength of the inversion. A strong upper-level ridge centered over the region will maintain dry weather through Friday. Subsidence associated with this ridge will reinforce the inversion, limiting vertical mixing and allowing low clouds to redevelop each night. Above the inversion, conditions will remain mostly clear, particularly today and Thursday, as any mid-to-high level cloudiness remains confined well north of the forecast area. The pressure gradient between the interior Columbia Basin and western Oregon will continue to tighten today, resulting in increasing easterly winds through the Columbia River Gorge and into the eastern Portland/Vancouver Metro area. Model guidance indicates the strongest gradients developing late tonight into early Thursday, with Troutdale to the Dalles values reaching -7 to -8 mb and locally stronger in some ensemble solutions. These gradients support a 40-60% percent probability of wind gusts approaching 45 mph in the eastern metro area, with high probabilities of gusts near or above 50 to 55 mph along exposed ridgeline such as Crown Point and Three Corner Rock. While these probabilities still suggest uncertainty, increasing pressure gradient and winds aloft, Tuesday evenings wind gusts around 40 mph at Troutdale, and the potential for northeasterly downsloping winds improves confidence for impactful winds. As a result, a Wind Advisory has been issued for winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 40 to 45 mph from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM Thursday for the East Portland Metro. Strongest wind gusts will be located from Troutdale east, with the highest winds occurring after 3 AM Thursday. Winds are expected to ease Thursday evening into Friday as gradients relax. Away from the influence of easterly winds, stagnant conditions will persist. Light surface flow combined with shallow mixing heights will continue to limit dispersion, increasing the potential for deteriorated air quality. An Air Stagnation Advisory remains in effect through Friday afternoon for the Southern and East Central Willamette Valley, Cascade foothills, North Clark County lowlands, and the Lower Columbia and Cowlitz River Valleys. The Portland/Vancouver Metro area and West- Central Willamette Valley remain excluded due to better mixing from easterly and northerly flow. Clear nights and calm winds will also maintain a favorable environment for frost development in colder valleys, particularly Thursday and Friday morning. The frost greatest potential continues to be in the Upper Hood River Valley, with more localized and patchy frost possible across portions of the central and southern Willamette Valley. Into the weekend, ensemble guidance continues to favor a transition toward cooler and wetter conditions as an upper-level trough approaches and the ridge shifts east. While confidence is high in a pattern change, uncertainty remains regarding the timing and coverage of precipitation. Current ensemble solutions range from limited precipitation near the coast Saturday to more widespread rainfall by Sunday. Snow levels are expected to lower into the 3000 to 4000 foot range as cooler air arrives on Monday, supporting renewed snowfall in the Cascades. ~12 && .AVIATION...VFR flying conditions continue across the region as high pressure builds over much of the West. For all terminals except KEUG, KSLE, and KHIO, expect VFR conditions through at least 06Z Thursday. As for the aforementioned terminals, deteriorated conditions will persist until 18-20Z Wednesday, then improve back to VFR. Specifically, KEUG will experience LIFR fog, KSLE may experience MVFR VIS, and KHIO may experience LIFR CIGs. There is less certainty for KSLE and KHIO due to low agreement between probabilistic and deterministic guidance. Later in the TAF period around 06-09Z Thursday, most terminals may see LIFR fog development, with the exception of terminals affected by the Columbia River Gorge outflow (KPDX, KTTD). Otherwise, expect easterly flow at terminals along the Columbia River and a variable to northerly in the central and southern Willamette Valley. Winds will generally be 5-10 kt, with KTTD being the exception with 20-25 kt winds and gusts up to 30-35 kt. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions through the TAF period. Easterly to southeasterly winds around 5-10 kt. Winds from the Gorge will keep the terminal clear of fog. With increasing winds in the Gorge near the end of the TAF period, could see gusts up to 20 kt around 12Z Thursday. ~12 && .MARINE... Variable winds with gusts up to 15 kt will be the trend through Friday. A long-period westerly swell has pushed into the waters today, increasing seas to around 9 to 11 feet at around 12 to 15 seconds. Seas will remain elevated above 10 feet through the end of the week. A Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect from now until 4 PM PST Friday for all the waters. Into the weekend, Small Craft winds likely with a 40-60% chance of Gale Force winds. ~12/03 && .BEACH HAZARDS... A long-period westerly swell has pushed into the waters today, causing a high threat for sneaker waves. A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect until 1 AM PST Thursday for the coasts of northern/central Oregon and southern Washington. Waves will be able to run significantly farther up on a beach than normal, including over rocks and jetties. Sneaker waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and quickly pull them into the frigid ocean which may lead to serious injury or drowning. Caution should be used when in or near the water, especially those who will be razor clamming this week. ~12 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for ORZ108- 115>118-123>125. Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST Thursday for ORZ112. WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for WAZ204-205. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for PZZ210-253-273. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for PZZ251-252-271- 272. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

748 FXUS66 KMFR 041107 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 307 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 .DISCUSSION...Lather, rinse, repeat. The center of a strong upper level ridge is over Lake Tahoe this morning and this will maintain dry weather across all of SW Oregon and northern California through late this week. Satellite imagery is showing some fog/low clouds developing in the usual locations -- the Umpqua Valley as well as portions of the Illinois Valley and Grants Pass. Since the flow on the back side of the high is from the SSW, high clouds out over the ocean are occasionally moving overhead as well. The fog and low clouds will dissipate by late this morning. Sun and high clouds will prevail this afternoon. Mild conditions are expected each of the next 2 afternoons and record high temperatures will be challenged. Most record highs are in the 60s, but some west side valley records are in the low 70s. Of North Bend (71 in 1993), Roseburg (68 in 1958), Medford (74 in 1984) and Montague (67 in 1984), records are probably safe today. Of Mount Shasta City (67 in 1984), Klamath Falls (61 in 2018) and Alturas (65 in 1995), each stand a decent chance at tying or breaking their record high. The warmest air aloft will move in on Thursday, Feb 5th, so that`ll probably be the warmest day. Still, that might depend on just how much high cloud cover there is. Of those 7 sites, a couple might reach or exceed their records. Klamath Falls (59 in 1995) is most likely. Here are the others -- Mount Shasta City (66 in 2007), Montague (68 in 1995), Alturas (64 in 2015), Medford (70 in 1963), North Bend (68 in 1926), and Roseburg (67 in 1941). The flow will become stronger from the south on Thursday as the ridge axis shifts into Idaho, Nevada and Utah down to the Four Corners. By Friday, a weak low will develop in southern California, while a stronger Pacific trough pushes toward the PacNW coast. Most areas will have another dry day (with high clouds and probably slightly cooler temps), though increasing onshore flow near the coast could touch off a little light rain or drizzle there (20% chance). Higher chances of light rain exist out over the ocean. The next frontal system will then approach the area Friday night into Saturday with rain chances increasing over the weekend. On Saturday, we think most areas will stay dry again, but rain chances increase to ~40% along the coast during the afternoon. This looks the first bona fide front in quite a while, especially since there`ll likely be a wave that forms along it and maintains high precip chances ( >80%) west of the Cascades Sunday. Snow levels are likely to start out quite high (6500-7000 feet). There are still some timing details to be worked out, but it looks like the cold front will swing through the area late Sunday afternoon/evening with snow levels dropping to around 3500 or 4000 feet by Monday morning (with precip ending). A period of gusty south to southwest winds should precede/accompany the front Sunday with the usual suspects (Shasta Valley and East Side) with the best chance at seeing wind gusts approach advisory levels (45 mph). Right now, flow appears a bit too southwesterly for much more than 40 mph peak wind gusts, but there`s plenty of time to evaluate that risk. Snow amounts will be highest Sunday night in the Cascades where 2-6 inches are possible during the 12-hour period 10p-4a. This could make the Monday morning commute slippery over the mountains and also for portions of the East Side along Highway 140 and Highway 97 (something to be aware of given this long stretch of mild weather we`ve been in). Post-frontal showers could continue on the west slopes of the mountains and along the coast Monday, but things should gradually dry out again. Models are showing split flow Tue-Wed next week, so while that could mean disturbances nearby, it might also mean they`re far enough south/southwest or offshore to not have much impact, except at the coast or in NorCal. Models keep light chance to low chance PoPs (20-50%) in the forecast, but these are likely to be refined downward should this type of pattern materialize. We`ll keep an eye on that and let you know. && .AVIATION...04/12Z TAFs...LIFR/IFR fog/low clouds will impact portions of the Illinois, Rogue and Umpqua Valleys this morning. This will be primarily from Cave Junction northward to Grants Pass and on up I-5 to Roseburg. These ceilings/fog will lift to VFR by around 18-19Z. Much like yesterday, patchy fog around out arounf White City and toward Central Point will probably stay clear of the terminal at KMFR (Medford airport) this morning. Elsewhere, VFR prevails for the next 24 hours, with just some high cirrus at times. && .MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Wednesday, February 4, 2026...Steep west swell will move through the coastal waters today and persist through at least Thursday. High pressure will maintain mostly dry conditions and light winds through Friday. A front will produce increased south winds, steep seas, and low visibility conditions in rain this weekend. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM PST Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

181 FXUS66 KEKA 040824 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1224 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Dry weather continues through at least Friday. Unseasonably warm afternoons and chilly mornings are likely through Thursday. Rain and high elevation snow likely returns this weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Another warm day is likely today, and likely the warmest day. NBM is showing low chances for any record- breaking temperatures across the area with the highest, at 15%, being in Ukiah where the record is 78. Even coastal areas could see upper 60s or even low 70s. Kneeland, with sustained offshore flow, could exceed 80 degrees. Temperatures are forecast to be similar Wednesday night and Thursday with another chilly morning and another warm afternoon. High temperatures will be similar, if not a few degrees cooler. Agreement is growing on the ridging pattern ending Friday and deep, elongated trough moving through the area. Increased cloud cover and more moderated temperatures with a deep marine layer are the main impacts, at first, Friday and most of Saturday. Rain arrives sometime between Saturday night or Sunday morning. Generally rainfall amounts are likely to be minor and light. NBM is showing around a 30 to 50% chance for over an inch of rain from Sunday morning to Tuesday morning. Higher elevations in Humboldt and Del Norte have over an 80% chance for 1 inch, and around a 30% probability for 2 inches. There is still around a 20 to 30% chance that southern Mendocino and Lake sees no precipitation. Low end precipitation amounts are around 0.25 to 0.50 inches in Del Norte, Humboldt, and Trinity Counties with less than a tenth south of Cape Mendocino. High end amounts around around 1 to 2 inches north of Cape Mendocino and a half inch to an inch south of Cape Mendocino. Winds do not currently look to be very impactful, with only a 10 to 20% chance for southerly wind gusts greater than 40 mph. Though there are higher probabilities for winds gusts greater than 30 mph, especially in wind prone areas. Snow levels are also likely to remain above 5,000 ft until Sunday night, though could drop to 3,000 to 4,000 ft Monday morning, bringing light snow to the highest passes on Highway 3 and Highway 36. Uncertainty grows going into early to mid next week. Some ensemble members are showing a break in precipitation, while others are showing continued pulses of precipitation. Deep troughing will bring much colder temperatures, and if there is more precipitation, more lower elevation snow. The colder scenarios have snow levels as low as 2,000 to 3,000 ft. Uncertainty is very high with low end precipitation amounts of 0 and high end amounts of 1 to 2 inches. Stay tuned. JB && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites for the next 24-hours as high pressure remains locked over the west coast. Patchy interior valley fog is expected in the morning hours on Wednesday but this fog should remain away from UKI. Winds will remain light throughout the period. /RPA && .MARINE...Winds will remain light and the sea state will be dominated by mid-period swells through Friday with high pressure locked over the west coast. The next larger swell will build into the waters Thursday into Friday, peaking between 10 and 12 feet at 15 to 16 seconds. Southerly winds will begin to increase Saturday ahead of an approaching front but will likely remain below small craft criteria. /RPA && .BEACH HAZARDS...A large swell is forecast to build into the coastal waters Thursday into Friday. Guidance is indicating the swell could peak at near 12 feet at 15 to 16 seconds during the day Friday. This would result in breakers of 14 to 17 feet. Swells of this magnitude are well below our high surf advisory criteria, however the locally developed sneaker wave risk calculator is indicating a moderate risk of sneaker waves as these swells impact the coast Friday. A beach hazard statement will likely be needed to cover this risk. Beachgoers should stay far back from the surf on Friday and possibly into the weekend as additional swells impact the coast. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

533 FXUS66 KMTR 041117 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 317 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 159 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 - Above normal temperatures and dry conditions through the work week. - Hazardous beach conditions from late tonight through Saturday evening at Pacific Coast beaches. - 10 to 30% chance of rain developing north to south on Sunday, with the higher chances favored for the North Bay and the coastal mountains. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 156 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 (Today and tonight) A strong ridge of high pressure and light offshore winds will bring warm temperatures and dry conditions once again to the area today. Most areas will see their warmest temperatures of this warm pattern today, reaching the upper 60s to mid 70s near the coast, and 70s to near 80 inland. A few spots will approach record high temperatures for the date with highs around 10 to as much as 20 degrees above normal. See the CLIMATE section below for relevant record high temperatures for today. Outside of areas of fog in the North and East Bay valleys, as well as the southern Salinas Valley this morning, skies will be mostly clear. Patchy fog will redevelop tonight in similar areas to this morning. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 156 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday) The upper level ridge bringing us warm and dry conditions will gradually move east on Thursday, allowing temperatures to cool a couple degrees from today. A weak cutoff low will then approach the coast and dive south off southern California and Baja California Friday and Saturday. This will usher in the beginning of a pattern change with temperatures cooling another 5 degrees or so and clouds increasing. Confidence is high that a sustained pattern change will take place Sunday into early next week as a longwave trough sets up along the West Coast. However, confidence in the details (timing/strength) is lower. Rain chances will increase from the north through the day Sunday, generally reaching 10-30% across the greater SF Bay area by the afternoon and extending into the Central Coast by the evening. Our area is likely to be on the southern fringe of the trough, resulting in very light amounts from any rainfall with this initial activity. Precipitation chances remain elevated Monday and Tuesday as the trough along the coast deepens, opening the door for additional systems to move through. The trend toward a deeper trough brings better potential for higher rainfall amounts, but totals are still favored to be light to moderate. This pattern will bring much cooler temperatures, dipping a few degrees below normal by early next week. Periods of breezy winds will also develop. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 317 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 Strong 500 mb high pressure over the forecast area will result in VFR except for patchy morning fog /LIFR-IFR/. Surface pressure gradients (and winds) are directed offshore 9.5 mb WMC-SFO and 1.3 mb SAC-SFO. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Light wind direction varying from southeast to northeast. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. Southeast cool air drainage winds today becoming light and variable mid to late afternoon. Southeast cool air drainage winds redevelop tonight and Thursday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 312 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 Light winds and seas continue today with strong high pressure over the region. Moderate northwest breezes and building seas will cause a return of rough seas Thursday night through Saturday. Northwest winds will increase on Sunday ahead of an incoming cold front dropping down from the Pacific Northwest. && .BEACHES... Issued at 319 AM PST Tue Feb 3 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from 12 AM PST Thursday to 9 PM PST Saturday at all Pacific Coast beaches. Westerly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents with breaking waves of 14 to 19 feet. Remember to stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure, remain out of the water, and never turn your back on the ocean! && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1124 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026 The following are the record high temperatures at the long term sites for February 4th. Location Feb 4th Record High Santa Rosa 77 in 2018 San Rafael 73 in 2018 Kentfield 75 in 2018, 2001 Napa 72 in 2001, 1984, 1930 Richmond 76 in 2018 Livermore 73 in 1917, 1906 San Francisco 74 in 2018 SFO Airport 75 in 2018 Redwood City 77 in 1984 Half Moon Bay 78 in 2018 Oakland Museum 70 in 2001, 1984 San Jose 76 in 2018, 1963 Salinas Airport 80 in 2018 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from late tonight through late Thursday night for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. High Surf Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 9 PM PST Saturday for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tangen LONG TERM....Tangen AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

599 FXUS66 KOTX 041119 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 319 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and mild through Friday. - Wetter weekend expected with incoming front Saturday Night into Sunday && .SYNOPSIS... Region will be under an upper level ridge for the next several days with dry weather. Temperatures will remain mild and above normal. A cold front will bring precipitation chances and breezy winds toward the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Today to Friday: A ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern and this will promote dry, mild conditions. Stratus and fog will continue to be a threat across the region, but the extent of that will vary from day to day. Overnight there has been a fair amount of middle to high clouds that seems to have been inhibiting the stratus/fog development. Guidance has done rather poorly with all of this the past few days, but most continue to show some development this morning. For stratus the best agreement is over the western and central Columbia Basin, with the EMC showing around 65-85% chance of development through the early morning hours, before it erodes from the east through the late morning to afternoon. For fog confidence is lower; its presence and depth has been inconsistent from morning to morning. But the forecast continues to hold onto it and the dew point depression in most areas remains low, like 0-3 degrees. The exception in the southeastern CWA where the air is drier. With that low level moisture and relatively light winds, at least patchy fog is expected. It may not be as dense as yesterday AM. This low stratus/fog threat will remain in the forecast Thursday and Friday too, save for the southeast CWA. Some break up in low clouds is possible in the afternoon hours. The mountains will see middle to high clouds today thinning into the next couple days. Highs are forecast to be in the 40s to mid-50s, with precise values influenced by the depth and persistent of the low clouds. Lows will largely in the 30s, with some upper 20s in the sheltered mountain valleys, particularly the Methow Valley. Saturday to Tuesday: The ridge pattern breaks down with a cold front tracking by between late Saturday and late Sunday. Clouds, rain and high mountain snow chances come to the are Saturday. By Sunday and Sunday night PoPs increase to the high chance and likely category, with snow levels dropping from 5-6kft Saturday evening to between 3.5-5kft by Sunday evening. This will bring more snow chance for snow around the mountain passes for Sunday night through Monday, with around 2 to 4 possible at Stevens Pass and 1-2 inches at Sherman Pass and minor amounts toward Lookout Pass. Meanwhile the lowlands will largely see rain. Rain amounts around 0.25 to 0.75 inches will be possible over eastern WA and ID, with around 0.05-0.15 inches in the lee of the Cascades and central WA where more of a shadowing effect will be found. Heading into Monday and Tuesday the area moves in between the more organized systems, with the higher precipitation chances retreating to the mountains zones, with drier weather coming to most of the lowlands by Monday night into Tuesday. This will largely remain as lowland rain and mountain snow, but some snow may mix into the lowlands Monday morning. Some light accumulations will still be possible Monday, with 1-3 inches at Stevens Pass and 1-2 inches at Lookout Pass, with lighter amounts at other passes. Thereafter models are right now are not showing a lot of accumulation at the passes for Monday night and Tuesday. Temperatures will largely in the 40s to low 50s through Sunday, then upper 30s and 40s Monday and Tuesday. Lows will be in the 30s to lows 40s, until Tuesday morning when the cool toward the mid-20s to mid-30s. /Solveig && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: Mid-high clouds in nighttime microphysics satellite imagery have been hiding the evolution of the low stratus in eastern WA and north ID and models have a poor handle on the current situation as well. Webcams have given clues on a fog bank/low cloud deck slowly expanding outward in all directions, briefly impacting KPUW prior to the 12z. Webcams suggest KMWH and KEAT will fall towards IFR ceilings and/or visibility between 13-16z as the cloud bank slowly develops towards the west. The window for low ceilings and/or visibility to develop at KGEG is between sometime between 13-16z as well. KSFF will be vulnerable to periodic dips in visibility before 16z from river fog. After 17-20Z the stratus/fog is expected to abate, leaving largely VFR conditions. High resolution models show a 50% chance that KMWH and KEAT remain in between IFR and MVFR stratus deck through around 20-23z before ultimately eroding. KCOE- KLWS-KPUW are expected to remain VFR over the next 24 hours with slowly decreasing coverage of mid-high level clouds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions at KCOE-KPUW-KLWS over the next 24 hours. Moderate confidence for degrading and improving conditions at KGEG-KMWH-KEAT-KSFF. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 49 34 49 34 47 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 50 34 50 34 48 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 53 38 56 37 51 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 55 39 56 38 54 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 45 32 48 31 47 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 46 34 46 33 46 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 52 39 56 38 52 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 48 34 51 33 46 33 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 45 35 48 36 48 36 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 45 34 47 35 45 35 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

844 FXUS66 KPDT 041128 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 328 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - High pressure through the week will keep the area dry and bring fog - An incoming system over the weekend will bring mountain precipitation && .DISCUSSION... Current satellite shows mid level clouds moving across the region. Current webcams show many areas to be experiencing patchy fog with some areas having VIS to below 1/4 mile. This will be the case through much of the week as the high pressure settles overhead. Models are in firm agreement with the high pressure ridge settling in over the region through Friday. This will bring increased chances for fog to develop overnight each night. Looking at the HREF raw ensembles, there is a 50-70% probability of the Basin, portions of Kittitas/Yakima Valleys and along the foothills of the Blues that will see VIS drop to below 3 miles through the evening. There are ground observations showing isolated locations already seeing VIS as low as 1/4 mile with the exception of portions of N. Central OR where there is widespread areas of dense fog. The fog is expected to linger through much of the morning before dissipating after noon. This will be the name of the game over the next few mornings with HREF and NBM ensembles showing 60-70% probabilities of the Basin and portions of the Blues seeing VIS of 3 miles or lower Thursday and Friday as well. NBM shows mixing heights to be mostly reaching 1000-2000AGL across much of the region, so the chances of air stagnation are low (20-30%) with the exception of central OR who has an air stagnation advisory out through Thursday morning. Otherwise, dry conditions will remain through Friday night into Saturday morning. Models are in decent agreement with the next incoming system due in over the weekend. Clusters show the biggest difference will be with timing and or positioning of the next system. Regardless, all models and ensembles show the system to bring in precipitation across the region with highest amounts along the Cascades and the eastern mountains. Saturday will see perception mainly along the Cascades with NBM ensembles showing 40-60% 4 hour probabilities of 0.05 inches of accumulations. By Sunday, models show the precipitation to become more widespread with accumulations of up to 0.05 through the lower elevations to be 40-50% probabilities and 50-60% for the Blues. Storm total accumulations of near 0.5 inches along the Cascades is 70-80% and 50-60% for the Blues with 40-60% probabilities of 0.15 for the lower elevations and 50% for between 0.05-0.10 inches for the Basin and central OR. As the system moves in, snow levels will steadily decrease to near 5000 feet by the weekends end allowing for some of the precipitation to fall as snow above 5000ft by Sunday night. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Primary concern through the forecast period will be fog. Sub- VFR conditions expected across many TAF sites except BDN/RDM at VFR. PDT is currently at LIFR due to dense fog, DLS/YKM/ALW/PSC seeing MVFR due to BR. Some sites such as PDT/YKM and PSC will see brief periods of VFR after 21Z. However, fog is expected to return again overnight to many of the sites (70-90%) with the main issue being how dense. Winds will remain light, below 6kts, and variable through the period. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 33 47 33 51 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 36 47 36 50 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 34 48 34 50 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 33 50 33 50 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 34 48 33 50 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 31 46 31 47 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 28 57 26 58 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 37 57 36 57 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 34 59 33 59 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 36 50 36 52 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...Air Quality Alert until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ506-509. Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for ORZ510. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...70

233 FXUS65 KREV 040848 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1248 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * High pressure overhead will bring dry conditions, above average afternoon highs, light winds, and valley inversions through this weekend. * A weak upper low pressure moving through the region on Friday will introduce a 20 percent chance of light precipitation in Mono and southern Alpine counties. * Increasing confidence that high pressure may finally break down by this weekend with precipitation chances returning by the second week of February. && .DISCUSSION... High pressure remains in place through Saturday. Afternoon high temperatures through this weekend for the lower NV valleys will be around 60 degrees, while the Sierra valleys will reach into the low to mid-50s. These high temperatures for the first week of February are around 10 degrees above average. Winds will remain light and variable this week, with air stagnation and valley inversions in the mornings and afternoons. One notable change to our otherwise persistent pattern is that models and ensembles are showing that by late Thursday into Friday, an upper level low will move through SoCal into Utah, undercutting the aforementioned high pressure. The most this feature will do on Friday is introduce a 15-20% chance of light snow showers above 7,000 ft in southern Alpine and Mono counties. Amounts will be light, generally 1" or less. The ensembles are showing increasing confidence that the high pressure will finally break down on Sunday. There is also increasing confidence that a moderately strong cold front will move through some time around Sunday into Monday. By Monday into the middle of next week, a long-wave trough pattern will move into east Pacific/western US. Current blended guidance shows snow levels as low as 7,000 ft on Sunday, then dropping to as low as 6,000 or less by Monday onward. There are still differences in the exact timing and intensity of precipitation and winds next week, but we are looking at a much needed change in the pattern from spring-like conditions back to winter. -McKellar && .AVIATION... VFR conditions and light winds continue through the weekend. The only exception will be at KTRK where very shallow, patchy FZFG may form between 12-15Z. Slantwise visibility reductions possible for KRNO/KCXP/KMEV due to valley inversions and haze in the mornings each day this week. -McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

872 FXUS66 KSTO 032140 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 140 PM PST Tue Feb 3 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather with patchy fog in the Valley and lower foothills expected through the week. - Pattern change late weekend and into early next week, with increasing precipitation chances. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today through Friday... Skies continue to be mostly sunny across the area, with hazy conditions. Areas in the northern San Joaquin Valley continue to see low stratus and patchy dense fog this afternoon. Improvements are expected through the evening hours for the northern San Joaquin, but it will be short lived as we expect further fog and low stratus overnight. Temperatures are in the 60s within the Sacramento Valley and 50s underneath the fog and low stratus. Areas in the mountains are in the 50s. HREF continues to highlight dense fog overnight for areas within the southern Sacramento Valley towards the northern San Joaquin Valley, but highest chances remain around Stockton and Modesto. Thus, a Dense Fog Advisory was issued for the northern San Joaquin area from 10pm this evening through 10am tomorrow for quarter mile visibilities or less. Improvements to the low stratus on Thursday and Friday as probabilities for a half mile or less have gone down. Temperatures have also increased, with the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area. Warmest temps in the foothills and in the northern Sacramento Valley. Minimum RH values Thursday and Friday will be in the teens for areas within the foothills and mountains, with light and variable winds. ...Saturday and onward... Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures on Saturday as the ridge aloft starts to breakdown and shift eastward. By the end of the weekend and into early next week we transition to more troughing across the southwestern United States increasing our chances for an active weather pattern. Long range guidance from the ECMWF and GFS indicate an active week ahead, with potential for multiple systems moving through the southwestern United States. The first being end of the weekend and into early next week, with a secondary system end of next week and into the following weekend. Probabilities for the first storm have gone up in QPF with 80 percent chance for a quarter of an inch or greater in the foothills and mountains, while in the Valley probabilities have decreased toward 20 percent. Snowfall over 6 inches is sitting around 40-50 percent for the mountains. Confidence continues to remain low at this time on rain/snow amounts, timing, and breakdown of the ridge. As the pattern change develops and we move through the week we will have a better understanding of impacts. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail for sites within the Sacramento Valley this afternoon and evening, while MOD and SCK remain IFR to MVFR due to fog and low stratus. Skies will be mostly sunny for the Sacramento Valley, with light and variable winds. Improvements to visibility in SCK and MOD through the afternoon, but overnight we expected visibilities to drop once again to IFR through the end of the TAF period. Areas around SAC, SMF, MCC, and MHR will see visibility reductions down to a half mile around 10z through 16z. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Dense Fog Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Wednesday for Northern San Joaquin Valley. && $$

865 FXUS65 KMSO 040732 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1232 AM MST Wed Feb 4 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Record Warmth (Wed-Sat): High pressure brings well above normal temperatures. Daily record high potential with considerable sunshine. - Pattern Shift (Sun-Mon): A transition to cooler, unsettled weather begins Sunday. Expect breezy southwest winds Sunday ahead of the system. - Winter Impacts (Mon-Mon Night): Moderate pass level snow impacts. Snow levels return to valley floors by early Tuesday but limited precipitation at that point. Today through Saturday...An amplified upper-level ridge will dominate the region through Saturday, bringing well above normal temperatures and the potential for daily record highs. While periodic high and mid-level clouds will drift overhead, considerable sunshine is expected. The primary forecast challenge remains the potential for valley fog and stratus which could suppress daytime warming, particularly in northwest Montana and Clearwater County. Sunday through Tuesday... A pattern transition begins Sunday as showers and southwest winds increase ahead of an incoming system. The ridge will be displaced by an upper- level trough, introducing cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances. Models have shown consistent agreement regarding a cold front passage on Monday, which will lower snow levels to valley floors by Tuesday morning. However, moisture appears limited after the colder air arrives. Overall, precipitation amounts look modest, with snow impacts likely limited to moderate winter driving conditions on mountain passes. Overall, this period represents a shift away from the stagnant high- pressure ridge rather than a significant winter storm event. && .AVIATION...High pressure ridging will ensure VFR conditions prevail across most terminals through Saturday, with light winds and passing high/mid- level clouds. The primary concern during this period is the potential for overnight/morning IFR or LIFR conditions due to valley fog and low stratus. The highest probability for fog development exists at KGPI, KMSO, and KSMN. Additionally, more widespread low stratus may develop and expand across northwest Montana, aided by moisture flux from Flathead Lake, though confidence in coverage and duration remains low at this time. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

107 FXUS65 KBOI 040922 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 222 AM MST Wed Feb 4 2026 .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...The upper ridge (and the inversion below) will be at maximum strength today and Thursday, followed by gradual weakening. This means continued dry, mild weather aloft (above 5500 feet MSL) and cooler, stagnant air below with patchy fog and low clouds in the lower valleys. Little day-to-day temperature change through Friday. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...The upper ridge will continue to weaken Saturday and Sunday while also shifting east. Latest models continue to bring a north Pacific cold front and supporting upper trough inland and through our area late Sunday night/Monday morning. The front looks strong enough to scour the inversion, and cooling aloft should greatly improve mixing to end the air stagnation. We have a 50 to 80 percent chance of rain and snow with the frontal passage, with snow level lowering to valley floors by Tuesday night after pcpn has ended. Some models increase moisture again for snow, or mixed rain and snow, in southern areas Wednesday. && .AVIATION...VFR, except local IFR in patchy mist in lower basins and sheltered valleys through 04/16Z. Surface winds: variable less than 10 kt until 04/18Z, then NE-SE 5-15 kt until 05/00Z. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW 15 kt, then variable less than 10kt after 04/18Z. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: variable or southeast 3-7 kt. && .AIR STAGNATION...Air stagnation will continue in the valleys through Sunday night, with little air movement vertically or horizontally. A north Pacific cold front and supporting upper trough late Sunday night or early Monday morning should scour the inversion and greatly improve vertical mixing. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Air Stagnation Advisory until 5 AM MST Monday IDZ012-014-016-033. OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 5 AM MST /4 AM PST/ Monday ORZ062>064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....LC AVIATION.....LC AIR STAGNATION...LC

540 FXUS65 KLKN 040829 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1229 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1227 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 * High pressure this week over the Great Basin will threaten several high temperatures records through Thursday * Potential for precipitation and gusty winds returns to NV beginning late this weekend && .UPDATE... Issued at 1227 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026 No changes were made to the forecast at this time. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure continues its dominance over Nevada to start the forecast, bringing near record temperatures today through Thursday. While the high pressure is in place, temperatures continue to be well above average and no precipitation will be possible. This system will begin to exit east by Friday, allowing a more active pattern in the West to take shape. This active pattern is expected to become especially evident by Sunday as a longwave trough begins to move onshore from the Pacific Ocean, bringing Pacific moisture with it. PoPs begin to increase Sunday afternoon in northern Nevada, expanding into central Nevada by mid morning Monday. Precipitation potential extends through the end of the forecast at this time and while PoPs at any given time and location max out around 60% with this forecast, the current indication is that the entire coverage area can expect at least some precipitation. Temperatures are also expected to return to much more seasonal levels and this system is currently expected to begin as a valley rain/mountain snow mix before potentially changing over to a full snow setup by next Tuesday. Early long range indicators are also signaling active weather potential through the first half of the month. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for high pressure persistence and associated impacts through Friday. Low to moderate confidence regarding the weather system beginning Sunday. Consistency has increased regarding time and location but there is still high uncertainty for factors such as temperature, PoPs and accumulation. No deviations from NBM baseline were included in this forecast. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will persist at all terminals through Wednesday morning under high pressure. No precipitation is forecast for the period and winds will be light. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...96/94 AVIATION...96/99