
Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue this evening from eastern Texas into the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys/southern Appalachians. The strongest storms could produce a few strong tornadoes (EF2+), damaging wind gusts, large hail, and locally heavy to excessive rainfall which may results in flash and urban flooding. Read More >
Seattle, WA
Center Weather Service Unit
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618 FXUS66 KSEW 062200 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 300 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level ridge will remain situated over Western Washington through Thursday. Onshore flow will continue throughout the week, leading to additional rounds of morning marine stratus over the next days. A weak frontal system will move over the area on Friday, bringing a small chance of showers to the coast and mountains. An upper level ridge will rebuild over the area this weekend into early next week, leading to a gradual warm up in temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Stubborn stratus continues over Western Washington with high clouds passing overhead and temperatures have been slow to warm up. Current temperatures as of 3:00 PM mid to upper 50s. With clouds struggling to scatter out, high temperatures are expected to only peak in the mid 50s along the coast and low 60s for the interior. An upper level ridge will remain in place over Western Washington through Thursday. Onshore flow will keep stratus over the region into Thursday morning, with guidance suggesting clouds scattering out in the afternoon. Therefore, slightly warmer tomorrow with high temperatures in the mid to upper 50s along the coast and mid to upper 60s in the interior. Cloud cover will be reintroduced Thursday evening as the next system heads towards the region. On Friday the ridge axis will push east as a shortwave trough moves through the region, which will be accompanied by a weakening cold front. Not much expected in terms of precipitation with this frontal system. Majority of locations are expected to remain dry. The locations that have the highest chances of seeing precipitation will be limited to the coast and mountains, with current PoPs at 10% or less. 29 && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that an upper level ridge will rebuild over Western Washington this weekend and likely persist into early next week. The ridge will keep strengthening into early next week, leading to a gradual warm up. The latest guidance suggests high temperatures this weekend will be in the low 60s along the coast and mid 60s to low 70s along the interior. Temperatures early next week through midweek will warm up to the mid 60s along the coast. Temperatures along the interior will be in the mid to upper 70s, with 80s possible in the southwest interior. 29 && .AVIATION... High pressure aloft with a dry and stable air mass across western Washington. The flow aloft is north to northwest. Near the surface, low level onshore flow continues with stratus clouds covering much of the lowlands. Most areas are within MVFR range. Clouds will lower overnight with pockets of IFR conditions. Weaker onshore pressure gradients will help low clouds to lift and scatter in the interior Thursday afternoon. 33 KSEA...MVFR ceilings remain in place. Brief IFR conditions possible Thursday morning. Improving conditions after 21Z. S/SW winds to 10 kt. 33 && .MARINE... Surface high pressure is over the offshore waters with lower pressure inland, resulting in ongoing onshore flow over western WA. SCA in effect for 10 ft seas over the coastal waters with westerly winds 20-30 kt through the Strait of Juan de Fuca tonight. Onshore flow is weaker on Thursday. A weak front will cross the waters on Friday. Expect light winds over the waters on Saturday with a stronger onshore pushes Saturday night and Sunday night. 33 && .HYDROLOGY... The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as needed. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$ 270 FXUS66 KPQR 062139 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 239 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure aloft continues to dominate the pattern this afternoon, supporting another stretch of relatively warm and dry weather into next week. The daily concern/issue will be the marine layer: low clouds expand inland late night and early morning (with occasional coastal mist/drizzle), then retreat toward the coast during the afternoon. How quickly that happens will continue to drive day to day temperature swings. The only notable interruption arrives Friday into Saturday as a weak shortwave brushes the ridge, bringing a brief cool-down and more cloud cover. Warm, dry conditions rebound quickly for the weekend and persist into early next week, possibly trending warmer towards the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Wednesday...This late afternoon`s setup is still "ridge-driven" at the large scale, but our sensible weather is being controlled more by low-level marine influences. Coastal areas remain most prone to periods of stratus, and while any drizzle is generally confined to late night/early morning near the beaches, it can`t be ruled out in that window. Inland, the primary impact is temperature: slower morning clearing generally means a cooler afternoon, while earlier sunshine allows highs to run warmer. From tonight through Thursday, expect a steady rhythm of overnight inland stratus pushes through coastal gaps (occasionally reaching into portions of the Willamette Valley), followed by daytime clearing back toward the coast. Temperatures will stay near to above seasonal averages even on the "cloudier" days, with coastal and higher terrain highs mainly in the 60s and inland valleys mostly in the low 70s. Afternoon west winds will also continue, with the central Columbia River Gorge and nearby exposed areas seeing periodic gusts around 25-30 mph into the evening. Friday into Friday night is the only organized feature to note. Guidance continues to weaken the shortwave that rides over the ridge, and that keeps impacts limited to a modest increase in cloud cover during the morning and a slight dip in temperatures. Rain chances have dwindled further and are now around 5% or less even along the coast/coastal terrain and the north Cascades. At this point, measurable precipitation is not expected across the forecast area. By Saturday and into early next week, ridging quickly rebuilds. That supports a return to a mostly sunny, warmer pattern with the same day-night marine cloud cycle continuing near the coast. Temperatures look seasonably pleasant: 60s along the coast and higher terrain, and 70s to near 80 in inland valleys, including a favorable setup for a warm and dry Mother`s Day. Early next week, confidence lowers regarding exact afternoon temperatures. Current guidance suggests afternoon high temperatures anywhere between 70 and 88 degrees on Tuesday and 70 to 93 degrees on Wednesday. This wide range of afternoon high temperatures will likely narrow towards the weekend as future model runs try to resolve whether the next pattern will be another ridge or a trough. Current ensemble clusters remain in poor agreement, with each ensemble cluster suggesting a different story: GEFS showing an approaching trough, ENS showing a weakening ridge, GEPS showing a ridge lingering over the PNW. ~12 && .AVIATION...As of 21Z Wednesday, low clouds were beginning to scatter out over the southern and central Willamette Valley, including KEUG and KSLE. Expect low clouds to scatter out over the northern Willamette Valley and Portland metro a bit later by 22-23Z Wednesday. Despite improvement to VFR inland, marine stratus is expected to resolidify late this evening into tonight with MVFR ceilings becoming more widespread again for inland areas. Meanwhile, marine stratus should remain firmly in place through today and tonight along the coast with little to no improvement expected this afternoon and evening. Winds generally remain light and variable around 5 kt or less at all terminals. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Broken MVFR ceilings remain in place, but should become either scattered or broken around 3500-4000 ft by approximately 22Z Wednesday. While confidence is high skies will become overcast again tonight by 06-12Z Thursday, confidence is lower regarding exact ceiling heights, which could range anywhere from 2000 to 4000 ft. Currently there is a 30-40% chance ceilings wind up falling to 3000 ft or lower, and a 60-70% chance ceilings stay closer to 3500-4000 ft. -23 && .MARINE...Strengthening high pressure offshore will bring increasing northerly winds this evening, while a broader onshore flow regime favors continued marine overcast which thickens and lowers overnight before lifting and backing offshore each day through the remainder of the week. The relatively stronger winds this evening along with a building northwest swell will push seas up to 7-9 ft by tonight, but a dominant swell period of 11-13 seconds should keep seas from becoming steep enough to present a hazard to small craft. Isolated gusts may exceed 20 kt through this evening beyond 30 NM. As northerly flow weakens on Thursday and turns southerly on Friday as a weak front moves over the coastal waters and decays, seas will ease back to 4-7 ft. Southerly gusts may briefly approach 20 kt on Friday afternoon before weakening again overnight. Chances for rain on Friday have now fallen to below 5%. High pressure will restrengthen offshore this weekend into early next week, supporting a reintensification of northerly winds. Chances for widespread gusts of 20-30 kt gradually increase each day from Saturday through Tuesday, while seas continue at 5-8 ft. -23/36 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland 476 FXUS66 KMFR 070223 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 723 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026 ...Updated the Aviation and Marine Sections... .AVIATION...07/00Z TAFs...Marine stratus is bringing a mix of IFR/MVFR conditions to the coast and coastal valleys into the lower Umpqua Valley. The marine layer will gradually extend back into the central portion of the Umpqua Valley, including Roseburg, overnight. But, the stratus is expected to be faster to improve on Thursday morning, with VFR by 18Z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with typically breezy afternoon/evening winds. && .MARINE...Updated 700 PM PDT Wednesday, May 6, 2026...Sub-advisory conditions are expected through Saturday. There will be a period of near advisory level winds late tonight into Thursday morning just south of Cape Blanco to between 5 and 30 nm offshore from Gold Beach. Otherwise, light to moderate north winds prevail through Thursday evening, switching to light southerly for Friday as a weak front passes through the region. Also, west-northwest swell dominated seas at or below 6 feet will persist through early Saturday. A thermal trough develops over the weekend, bringing increasing north winds and resultant steep to very steep seas through early next week. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 223 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026/ DISCUSSION... A stubborn marine layer has kept temperatures a bit cooler than anticipated in the Umpqua Valley and Roseburg this afternoon. Some cumulus buildups have developed across the forecast area this afternoon, although we`re not anticipating showers or thunderstorms today. A marine layer will likely develop again tonight and linger in the Umpqua Valley and coast again. This could keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than what is currently in the forecast around Roseburg and portions of the coast. We should also see some more mist and fog along the coast as the boundary layer compresses under this upper level ridge. Temperatures remain warm on Thursday with highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal for early May. Although we`re not in fire season yet, the winds and humidities will create some elevated fire weather conditions east of the Cascades. Winds will be gusting close to 30 mph with humidities in the lower teens. We`ll see those conditions change into Friday as a short wave approaches the Oregon coastline. Temperatures will cool a few degrees, although remain above normal for this time of year. Once this wave passes, we`ll see temperatures push 10 to 15 degrees higher for the remainder of the weekend and continue into next week. It looks like a thermal trough will develop during Monday and aid us pushing temperatures higher. We`re currently forecasting to tie the high temperature record at KMHS of 88 degrees on May 11. No other records are at risk, although we`ll remain well above normal, just not smashing through records through the remainder of the forecast through mid week. -Smith && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$ 790 FXUS66 KEKA 062208 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 308 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Weak high pressure building into the area will gradually warm inland temperatures through Thursday. Closer to the coast widespread low clouds will linger keeping temperatures cooler. Friday will see slightly cooler temperatures and more clouds. For the weekend and into early next highs are expected to warm each day with many inland areas seeing the 90s by Monday. && KEY MESSAGES: Near to above normal inland temperatures Thursday with some cooling Friday. Breezy north winds this weekend with well above normal temperatures inland. Minor to moderate heat risk is possible on Monday in Mendocino, Lake and Trinity counties. .DISCUSSION...High pressure is building over the area in the wake of a departing low. This will bring clearing skies and warming temperatures for much of the interior. Stratus has retreated to the usual coastal areas of Humboldt, Del Norte and Mendocino counties and will return with less coverage overnight into Thursday morning than previous past few days. Though HREF does have a less vigorous low level cloud cover Thursday afternoon, stratus is expected to straddle the coastline and will linger around Humboldt Bay and the coastline up to the Oregon border. Thursday night into Friday a weak front will bring some mid level clouds and cooler temperatures to Trinity county. This may bring some drizzle to the coast, but at this point no real rain is expected. Friday night into Saturday northerly winds are expected to increase. Offshore flow is expected overnight with breezy afternoon winds. Inland areas are expected to warm again on Saturday and with mostly clear skies areas closer to the coast will likely warm up too. The breezy northerly winds typically keep the immediate coast in the low 60s. The warming trend is expected to continue into early next week. At this point the first day expected to see moderate heat risk in the far inland areas is Monday. However, there is some potential an upper low could develop off the coast weaken the wind flow allowing clouds and marine air creep into the coastal counties limiting the heating potential. MKK/EYS && .AVIATION...The marine layer remains deep and embedded along the coast and farther inland. The MVFR ceilings from this layer will once again lower with overnight cooling, with high confidence for IFR levels. With building high pressure, and additional compressional effects, LIFR levels are possible. Guidance is trending with higher probabilities for this scenario. Probabilities for LIFR are at this time 20-30%, but MOS guidance is latching on to lower ceilings. && .MARINE...Northerly winds increase some today, to around 15-17 kts, mainly in the southern waters around the cape. Similar conditions will continue Thursday, with short period seas of 3 to 5 feet and some small mid period swells. Thursday night into Friday a weak front approaching the area is expected to bring lighter winds north of Cape Mendocino. Only around 5 to 10 kt and these may briefly become west or southwest. Farther south the winds are expected to increase to around 15 to 20 kt. Behind the front on the weekend winds are expected to increase to near gale or gale force as high pressure builds in again. There is expected to be a fairly small northwest swell through much of the period. Friday night and Saturday behind the weak front the swell may increase slightly with periods jumping up to around 15 seconds, but heights remain around 3 or 4 feet. MKK/JJW && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png 275 FXUS66 KMTR 062348 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 448 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026 - Warming and drying trend beginning today through the early part of next week - Temperatures peaking next Monday and Tuesday - Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses for sensitive populations across the inland valleys beginning this weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1201 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026 (This evening through Thursday) Satellite imagery shows a lingering mid-level cloud deck over Napa County and the eastern fringe of Sonoma County, with scattered cumulus across ridgelines down to the Gabilan Range east of Salinas and clear skies everywhere else. The clouds over Napa County may take a few more hours to clear out, with generally clear skies across the region through the afternoon before stratus returns to the valley regions this evening and overnight. As of the time of writing, there has been no clear signal of a return of the marine layer, but we will continue to monitor the Bodega Bay profiler as it is expected to develop over the next couple of days. The upper level pattern is dominated by a building ridge across the West Coast as the low pressure system that gave us the last few days of gloomy weather has split, with part of the low`s energy moving off into the Plains and the other spinning up a cut- off low centered over the northern half of Baja California. Thus, today will mark the start of a warming and drying trend that -- spoiler alert -- will continue into the upcoming weekend. High temperatures toady will range from the middle 70s to lower 80s across the inland valleys, with highs in the middle 80s possible in the warmest regions of southern Monterey County, the middle 60s to the lower 70s near the Bays, and the middle 50s to lower 60s along the Pacific coast. The building ridge will cause temperatures to warm tomorrow, generally a rise of a few degrees across most of the forecast region, with the most notable exceptions being the southern Salinas Valley, where highs jump into the upper 80s to the lower 90s, and the vicinity of Santa Cruz where highs rise into the upper 70s. Breezy onshore flow is expected to develop across the region in the afternoon and evening hours, with gusts reaching 20 to 30 miles per hour along the coasts, through gaps and the northern Salinas Valley, and across the ridgelines. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1201 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Upper level ridging continues to build through the week as temperatures continue to rise across the region. Thursday night into Friday, the strengthening pressure gradient will contribute to breezier and gustier onshore flow during the afternoon and evening hours, especially along the coast, at the ridgelines, and through northwest-southeast oriented gaps and valleys, where wind gusts could reach 25 to 35 mph. After persisting through the weekend, breezy winds will diminish through the early part of next week as the ridge expands over the state, degrading the pressure gradient. Temperatures continue to rise across the 7 day outlook, with the current forecast showing highs peaking next Monday and Tuesday, as the temperatures reach the lower 90s to near 100 across the inland valleys, the lower 80s to lower 90s along the Bays, and the middle 60s to lower 70s along the Pacific coast. Low temperatures will hover in the 50s for the lower elevations, and will rise into the 60s and lower 70s in the higher elevations. Moderate HeatRisk will develop in the inland valleys and warmer locations along the Bayshore (namely eastern Marin County and southeastern San Mateo County beginning this weekend into the early part of next week. This corresponds to a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses, especially for sensitive populations including children, the elderly, pregnant women, people with chronic diseases, and people who work or live outdoors without adequate shelter or hydration. Never leave anyone unattended in a vehicle! It is best to avoid being outdoors during the hottest part of the day, but if you must, make sure to drink plenty of water and take breaks in the shade. Towards the middle and latter parts of the next week, forecast uncertainty begins to increase with an emerging split in the ensemble model runs. Ensemble cluster analysis teases out around a 30-40% chance that a trough will develop and interrupt the warming trend towards the the latter part of next week, with significant differences among the ensemble runs as to what the nature of this trough will be -- shortwave or synoptic, more zonal or meridional flow. This is something that we will watch over the next few days as we interrogate how this event will play out. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 438 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026 Currently VFR all terminals, except KHAF as usual. Marine layer lurks along coast and coastal waters. As the sun sets, the marine layer will move inland with MVFR CIGs developing for much of the night. KSTS will have a few hours of potential dense fog early Thursday AM. Mid-morning clearing for stratus on Thursday. Onshore kicks up again with breezy to gusty winds in the afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...A few clouds in the gap. Expect these to fill in with MVFR CIGs arriving 06-08Z. Timing is lower confidence given some guidance uncertainty. Onshore gusts 20-25kt poss again Thursday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Arrival of low clouds will later than SFO, but still some clouds for the Thursday AM rush. Monterey Bay Terminals...Clouds building along MRY Peninsula. These clouds will expand through 02-03Z with MVFR for MRY. SNS will also see MVFR, but slightly later than MRY. SNS will be gusty up to 20 again on Thursday afternoon. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1012 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026 A building ridge of high pressure over the eastern Pacific will continue gentle to moderate northerly breezes across the coastal waters this afternoon. Expect increasing northerly breezes by Thursday afternoon that will persist through the weekend with building rough seas, resulting in dangerous conditions for small crafts. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...MM MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea 863 FXUS66 KOTX 062313 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 413 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated thunderstorms in far North Idaho late Wednesday afternoon and evening. - Gusty winds Wednesday afternoon and evening in Central Washington. - Widespread minor HeatRisk into next week. This level of heat primarily affects those who are sensitive to heat. - Dangerously cold water temperatures pose a high risk for cold water shock and hypothermia for anyone who unexpectedly falls in. Wear a life jacket if recreating on or near the water. && .SYNOPSIS... A prolonged period of above normal temperatures will continue into the middle of May. Conditions will be dry outside small chances for mountain showers and thunderstorms in the North Idaho Panhandle Wednesday. Winds will be gusty Wednesday and Friday, especially in Central Washington. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight: Instability will weaken through early evening hours for Northeast Washington and North Idaho. Any chance of thunderstorms will diminish by midnight. Winds will calm as cold front exits. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s and low 50s. Thursday through Wednesday: The region will be influenced by an upper level ridge wedged between Lows over Central Canada and the Gulf of Alaska. The pattern will keep the Inland Northwest under warm, dry conditions through the weekend. Highs will be in the 70s to low 80s. Minor heat risk threat continues for those who are extremely sensitive to heat and not acclimated to the warmer temperatures this early in the season. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s and 50s. Ensembles are swinging a dry cold front through the region on Friday. The main concern will be winds across the lee of the Cascade valleys, Columbia Basin, and Southeast Washington. Sustained winds will be west in the teens and low 20s mph. Gusts will be in the 30-40 mph (greater than or equal 50 percent probability). The ridge begins to flatten late Sunday into Monday as the Gulf of Alaska Low moves into BC. The region is not expected to see much change from the warm, dry conditions. Temperatures continue to remain above the season normal. Next chance of precip for the region is possible on Wednesday but confined to Northeast Washington and North Idaho. /JDC && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: A weak shortwave disturbance will bring an expansive cirrus cloud deck across the Inland Northwest late this afternoon into this evening. In addition, isolated convection will impact far north Idaho around Republic to Sandpoint (KSZT) and Bonners Ferry (K65S). Lightning, downpours, and gusty winds will be possible with this activity between through 04Z. Gusty westerly winds as well into this evening with gusts up to 20-30 kts. Skies will clear out after 05Z and gusts diminishing as the boundary layer decouples late this evening into overnight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate to high confidence for convection and isolated thunderstorms in far northeast Washington to North Idaho (along and northeast of a line from Colville to Sandpoint). /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 51 77 50 74 47 75 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 50 73 49 70 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 49 70 45 69 44 70 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 53 76 48 76 48 76 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 47 82 48 76 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 47 73 47 69 44 72 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 47 71 46 70 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 50 81 50 79 46 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 53 82 53 76 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 51 85 53 81 47 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$ 267 FXUS66 KPDT 062340 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 439 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026 .Updated Aviation Discussion. .KEY MESSAGES... - Above-normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions through this week into next week - Wind Advisory in effect this afternoon and evening - Periods of low relative humidity (10-20 percent) coupled with breezy to windy westerly winds Thursday and Friday through the Cascade gaps and across the Columbia Basin and Blue Mountain foothills && .DISCUSSION... Although a stratus/marine layer and invading cirrus was overspreading much of the area west of the Cascades, the Eastern Columbia Gorge. Lower Columbia Basin was virtually cloud free late this morning, with only the exception of clusters of cumulus clouds popping off the southern Blue Mountains and Wallowas. For the Wind Advisory for this afternoon, Ellensburg is hitting around the lower end of gust criterion and was gusting between 45 and 50 mph over the last few hours with sustained speeds in excess of 30 mph. A shortwave is moving through the upper mean ridge in BC/upper Columbia Basin, through Tonight before the upper ridge becomes more amplified into Thursday across WA and OR. ECMWF/GFS20 and AI GFS all agree on another shortwave late Friday but the dry system will lead to little more than mountain showers for the Cascades. This wave should enhance wind gusts through gradients and momentum transfer on Friday, which could be another wind advisory afternoon though the Kittitas valley, parts of the foothills of the Blue Mountains and Simcoe Highlands with roughly 20 to 50% chances for wind gusts of 45 mph or greater based on NBM members. Temperatures through Thursday and Friday are not as warm but still will reach the 70s across the foothills and 80s through the Yakima Valley, Lower Columbia Basin Central Oregon and the John Day Basin, driving heat risk in to the Minor category, affecting individuals most sensitive to heat, and without cooling or hydration. In addition to the warm temps, the chances for measurable precipitation are virtually zero over the area well into next week and the 6 to 10 day outlook offers 50 to 70% chances for above normal temperatures and 40 to 50% chances for below normal precipitation. Russell/71 && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... VFR conditions currently across all sites, which will stay the course through the period. Breezy winds of 20-30kts for all terminals through this evening, dissipating later tonight. The only exception will be KDLS, which will continue to experience breezy 20- 30kt winds into the early morning hours on Thursday. BKN-SCT 25kft ceilings this evening before clearing out overnight tonight. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm temperatures will drive down relative humidity with afternoons becoming breezy and locally windy, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions through the week. Winds on Thursday will slacken slightly so risk is lower but a more breezy Friday will lead to 20 to 50% chances for combined RH and Wind gusts of 20% and 20 mph. So beyond this afternoon,t he next most risk day is Friday, followed by a more muted risk on Sunday as winds are not anticipated to be particularly strong, but much warmer temperatures will drive down RH down to around 10% across the Ochoco John Day Highlands. Russell/71 && .HYDROLOGY... Expect a continued fall in the Naches River as the gage at Naches has already gone below the action level and Cliffdell gage is forecast to undergo a much slower fall, remaining above action stage and falling to 16.18 ft by Tuesday afternoon. Russell/71 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 82 52 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 82 54 76 53 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 89 56 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 88 50 82 50 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 85 54 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 80 47 77 47 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 83 43 80 41 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 81 47 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 81 45 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 83 53 79 50 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory until 1 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ024-026-521. OR...Wind Advisory until 1 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ041-044-507-508- 510. && $$ DISCUSSION...71 AVIATION...75 FIRE WEATHER...71 HYDROLOGY...71 583 FXUS65 KREV 062120 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 220 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A warming and drying trend will prevail this weekend with high temperatures returning to the low 80s across W.Nevada * Near record heat is becoming increasingly likely late this weekend into early next week. * Breezy afternoon winds are likely with a weak system to our north on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... Strengthening high pressure will provide a notable warming and drying trend this weekend with continued warming and near record highs possible by early next week. Highs will warm to around 10 degrees above season averages from Thursday to Saturday as temperatures warm to the lower 80s across western Nevada with mid-70s for Sierra valleys. By Sunday, those highs will reach the upper 80s for W.Nevada and upper 70s for the Sierra. Next week Monday and Tuesday are favored to be the warmest days with a 60-70% chance of hitting record highs as highs near the 90 degree mark across W.Nevada and around 80 for the Sierra. Typical afternoon zephyr breezes prevail through the weekend with a slight bump in afternoon breezes Friday (gusts 20-25 mph) as a weak shortwave trough brushes the Nevada/Oregon border. Dry conditions continue through early next week before a shortwave trough begins to nudge the upper ridge eastward which may allow enough moisture and instability to provide 10-20% chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms. Fuentes && .AVIATION... VFR conditions with a warming and drying trend expected through the weekend with afternoon west breezes gusting 15-20kts. IFR/LIFR conditions overnight between 06-15Z are expected due to fog formation through the Martis Valley. Fuentes && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ 657 FXUS66 KSTO 062115 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 215 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and dry conditions are expected to develop end of the week with widespread Minor HeatRisk Thursday and Friday. - Widespread Moderate HeatRisk Sunday into Tuesday. - Hottest Days Monday and Tuesday with triple digit and daily record highs possible. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today... Latest satellite shows loop shows the morning stratus layer be replaced by cumulus and stratocumulus clouds in the Valley, Delta, and foothills. In spite of the cloud cover, early afternoon temperatures are running 5 to 10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago as eastern Pacific ridging builds in. Highs this afternoon are expected to be in the mid to upper 70s. ...Thursday through Tuesday... Wednesday is expected to be dry with high temperatures 3 to 7 degrees above normal as eastern Pacific high pressure ridging builds into into the region with widespread Minor HeatRisk in the Valley and Delta. This is the beginning of an extended period of dry and warm weather. Conditions continue to warm as we move into weekend into early next week with. Minor HeatRisk is expected to extending through most of the foothills and mountains by the Saturday, with some areas of Moderate HeatRisk are expected in the Valley by Saturday. More widespread Moderate HeatRisk arrives Sunday and continues through Tuesday. Hottest days are expected to be Monday and Tuesday, with highs in the upper 90s to around 100. Some daily high temperature records are in jeopardy. The NBM continues to indicate a 50 to 70% chance of 100 or greater in the northern San Joaquin Valley and portions of the central Sacramento Valley next Monday and Tuesday. There may be some Delta breeze to give influenced areas a slight break for overnight lows. Minimum RH values trend lower through the week as well, dropping into the 20s and teens by the weekend into early next week. Northerly winds the were expected Saturday have diminished quite a bit, and are no longer a concern. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Surface winds generally 12 kts or less. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 426 FXUS65 KMSO 061905 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 105 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Showers and possible thunderstorms tonight into Thursday for northwest Montana - Warming for the remainder of the work week - A weak disturbance on Saturday causing slightly cooler temperatures and potential of light showers near Glacier NP High pressure to our west will maintain a generally settled weather pattern for most of today. However, a weather disturbance moving in from Canada will bring increased cloud cover and a higher chance of precipitation this evening and overnight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop around 5pm near the Idaho Panhandle border, potentially reaching as far south as Missoula. By 9:00 PM, this activity will shift primarily toward northwest Montana, with the greatest chances focused near the Canadian border. A few of these evening storms could become strong, carrying the potential for gusty winds, lightning, and small hail. As the high pressure system moves closer to the Northern Rockies on Thursday, showers will linger along the Continental Divide, including the Glacier National Park area, while the rest of the region will experience clearing skies. Another weak weather system will arrive late Friday night into Saturday morning. While forecast confidence is high for widespread cloud cover with this passing system, a very dry air mass in place will significantly limit the chance for measurable rainfall. Regardless of whether precipitation reaches the ground, Saturday will feature cooler, near-normal daytime high temperatures. By Sunday, confidence is exceptionally high that strong high pressure will build directly over the region. This will usher in a period of completely dry conditions and a noticeable warming trend across Western Montana and North Central Idaho. Expect this warm and quiet weather pattern to persist through early next week. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will generally prevail across the airspace through the afternoon under the influence of high pressure to the west. However, aviation impacts are expected to increase after 06/2300Z as a Canadian disturbance initiates scattered showers and thunderstorms along the Idaho border, potentially impacting the KMSO terminal area. By 07/0300Z, the convective focus will shift northward into northwest Montana, bringing the highest probabilities for TSRA to the KGPI vicinity near the Canadian border. The primary aviation hazards associated with the stronger thunderstorm cores this evening will include erratic gusty outflow winds to 30 kts, lightning, small hail, and temporary MVFR conditions due to reduced visibility and lowering ceilings in heavier precipitation. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$ 808 FXUS65 KBOI 070001 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 601 PM MDT Wed May 6 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued warm, dry, and breezy through Friday. - Dry cold front Friday afternoon leading to slight cooling Saturday. - Warming trend Sunday through Tuesday and staying hot and dry through the week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Issued 213 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026 Warm, dry weather will continue the next several days due to a nearly stationary ridge of high pressure aloft along the coast. A faster-moving upper trough in the mid Pacific will weaken as it moves eastward through the ridge and into our area Friday evening. A dry cold will pass through our CWA Friday afternoon. Thursday and Friday should be 2-4 degrees warmer than today. Daytime winds Thursday and Friday will be from the west or northwest 10-20 mph with afternoon gusts 25-30 mph (in the Snake Basin). Nighttime winds will be west or northwest 4 to 8 mph, with enough mixing to keep low temperatures near normal. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued 213 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026 Slightly cooler temperatures on Saturday will give way to a prolonged period of hot and dry conditions as an upper ridge builds over the western US. Temperatures will rise to 15 to 20 degrees above normal by Sunday, with highs of 85 to 90 degrees in the Snake Basin and in southeast Oregon. This will bump HeatRisk levels into the minor category - primarily affecting those who are extremely sensitive to heat and without cooling/hydration. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 559 PM MDT WED MAY 6 2026 VFR with increasing mid-level clouds tonight. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming SW-NW 5-10 kt overnight. Gusts to 30 kt expected after Thu/16z at KTWF/KJER. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 15-30 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: NW 5-12 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JM SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....JR 014 FXUS65 KLKN 062055 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 155 PM PDT Wed May 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warming trend will start in earnest today and last through the rest of the week * High pressure will be the dominant weather maker across the Great Basin, signaling a prolonged stretch of dry weather && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Wednesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: High pressure will be bringing quiet and dry weather through the next seven days across northern and central Nevada. Breezes to 25 to 30 mph will be possible each afternoon with highs in the 70s and 80s through Saturday, with much warmer temperatures in the 80s to near the low 90s by Sunday and Monday. No precipitation is expected. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes were made to the NBM forecast. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through the next 24-hour period. Winds will be breezy during the afternoon with gusts to 30KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will keep a lid on the active weather across the fire district through the next week. Afternoon highs will warm to above normal temperatures with minimum relative humidity values in the single digits and teens. Afternoon breezes will be in the 20 to 30 mph range Thursday and Friday. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86 |
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