ZSE Aviation Forecast Discussions

000 FXUS66 KSEW 302347 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 347 PM PST Tue Nov 30 2021 .SYNOPSIS...A weather system will bring rain through Thursday morning for the area before tapering off. Dry weather late Thursday through Friday. Another system will bring potential precipitation Friday night into Saturday. A few more systems next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...Most of the area cloudy with rain this afternoon, with the heaviest along the coast and into the mountains. Rain will continue through this evening and slowly shift a bit north into tonight. The focus for the heaviest rain on Wednesday will be northern areas, and Skagit/Whatcom Counties. Rivers levels will rise through Wednesday for potential river flooding in these areas (refer to hydro section). Temperatures will be on the warmer side into Wednesday with highs in the mid 50s to low 60s. Breezy winds into Wednesday night. A front will slide through the area on Thursday for additional lowland rain and mountain snow in the morning before tapering off through the day. Drier weather Thursday night through Friday. Temperatures will be a bit chilly especially lows Friday morning in the 30s and highs in the 40s. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...There will be a system that will slide across the area Friday night into Saturday. Some uncertainty with this system in both track and strength, as well as how much colder air is in place. Ensembles seem to be generally more consistent with lowland rain and mountain snow, but a period to track. Mountain snow including the Passes on Saturday with potential for breezy winds. Dry weather for Sunday with more systems moving through the area Monday into next week. Temperatures into the upper 40s to low 50s for highs into next week. JD && .AVIATION...A warm front will remain draped over the region tonight and into Wednesday for rain at times. The air mass is moist and stable with westerly flow aloft. Ceilings are a mixed bag but mostly within MVFR range. Rain will be heaviest along the coast and north interior where IFR conditions are possible. Winds will be gusty in the interior to around 25 kt. These conditions will likely persist into Wednesday morning with improving conditions by 21z. 33 KSEA...Rain with MVFR cigs expected tonight and into Wednesday morning. S winds around 10-20 kt. 33 && .MARINE...A warm front will stall over the region tonight with strong southerly winds over the waters - Small Craft Advisories remain in effect. Meanwhile, seas will also build to 10-12 feet. Southerly flow will continue through Wednesday then turn onshore Wednesday night as the cold front moves through western WA. The flow will turn offshore as we move into the end of the week. A weak front will cross the area on Saturday followed by a stronger Pacific frontal system on Monday. 33 && .HYDROLOGY...The rain is upon us and will continue into Thursday. Thus there are renewed river flooding concerns. While the worst of the AR will focus just to our north in BC, moderate to heavy rain will once again impact the Olympic Peninsula and the northern Cascades. This system looks to produce slightly less rainfall, with totals more on the order of 1-2 inches in the Whatcom/Skagit County lowlands, with 2-4 inches in the North Cascades and in portions of the Olympic Peninsula. There looks to be a significant break in the precip tonight into Wednesday. This break, and how well the modeling does with it will determine the forecast crests and actual crest. Mainly this impacts the Nooksack and Skagit Rivers. There are several things exacerbating the flooding situation. The antecedent conditions are such that the runoff efficiency from the rainfall will be high. With persistent rain, heavy at times, and flooding over the last several weeks, the soils are saturated and just can`t absorb any more. In addition, the temperatures will be relatively warm with snow levels over 10,000 feet. Breezy winds and high relative humidity will increase snow melt, though the availability of low to mid elevation snow is likely limited. In some areas, flooding will still be ongoing when the storm starts, despite river and stream levels being below flood stage by then. Flood impacts along the Nooksack and around the Everson area appear to be higher than usual, likely due to the movement of river sedimentation that has altered the streambed. This change also adds uncertainty to the calculated river flows and therefore to the river forecasts. One caveat is that with this decently strong atmospheric river just to our north, a change in its trajectory could make a huge difference given the potential of the storm. Changes in an AR`s trajectory are not uncommon. Should this one slide in a little more to the south than forecast, there would be the potential for flooding on the more northerly rivers to be much higher; at least as high as yesterday`s minor flood crest, if not higher. The 90 percentile QPF max over the mountains of Whatcom County top out at 8 inches rather than the 4 inches in the current operational forecast. Plugging this doubling of the precipitation into the river model for the Nooksack give a crest will into the moderate flood range rather than cresting belong flood stage. That being said, there is still some of the high resolution models are showing that later in this event there will be a longer, farther north push to the heaviest precip which will put the precip totals on the lighter side instead. There has been no hint that the event will turn to the heavier scenario. This ongoing precipitation will also provide trigger points for landslide initiation and keep the threat of landslides elevated into the weekend. JBB && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for Admiralty Inlet Area- Bellevue and Vicinity-Cascades of Snohomish and King Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-East Puget Sound Lowlands-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Everett and Vicinity-Hood Canal Area-Lower Chehalis Valley Area-North Coast-Olympics-Western Skagit County-Western Strait of Juan De Fuca-Western Whatcom County. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal. && $$ www.weather.gov/seattle

000 FXUS66 KPQR 302220 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 219 PM PST Tue Nov 30 2021 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will expand northward on Wednesday, before a weak cold front brings chances for light rain to northern zones Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. Additional weak systems may clip the region with a few showers through the weekend, then a stronger frontal system from the Gulf of Alaska is expected to impact the region Sunday night into Monday. && .SHORT TERM...This evening through Thursday night...A quasi-stationary warm front over southwest WA will gradually lift northward this evening through tonight while surface high pressure builds northward behind the front. This will set the stage for a calm night across northwest OR and southwest WA, which would initially suggest areas of fog and low stratus will develop. That said, the HREF ensemble mean for cloud cover shows a fairly strong signal for widespread high clouds over the region tonight. If this does occur, then fog development would be hindered due to limited radiational cooling. This scenario is what most guidance is currently suggesting. In reality, suspect some locations will see thin enough high clouds for at least some patchy fog to form in the lowlands (especially in the southern and northern Willamette Valley where the chance for breaks in cloud cover is highest). The outcome tonight will also significantly affect high temperatures tomorrow afternoon, making for a tricky forecast. If high clouds wind up thin enough for widespread fog to form tonight, then high temperatures would most likely top out in the lower 50s tomorrow since there will be very little boundary layer mixing to scour out fog. If widespread fog and/or low stratus does not form in the valley tonight, then high temperatures could easily wind up in the low to mid 60s. This is what the latest iteration of the NBM suggests, but decided to go closer to NAM/GFS/EURO MOS guidance which all depict highs in the upper 50s for the lowlands. Even this outcome would still be well above normal for the beginning of December. If the NBM temperature forecast pans out, then several record high temperatures would be tied or broken for the day. A very weak cold front is set to clip southwest WA and far northwest OR Wednesday evening through Thursday morning, bringing increasing clouds and a 20 to 40 percent chance of light rain for locations to the north of Salem. This front will also bring relatively cooler temperatures on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 50s, which is still slightly above normal for early December. Skies should begin clearing behind the front Thursday evening/night while winds become light and variable. This should result in a chilly night compared to what we have been dealing with over the past week, with lows most likely falling into the 30s according to the NBM. Temperatures could drop below freezing for typical cool spots such as Battle Ground, Hillsboro, and Corvallis. Would not be surprised if patchy frost and/or patchy fog forms Thursday night. -TK && .LONG TERM...Friday through Monday night...Models and their ensembles continue to suggest westerly flow aloft on Friday with surface high pressure. While it still looks like offshore flow may develop on Friday as the UWWRF suggests, the pressure gradient over the Columbia Gorge is now looking much weaker compared to yesterday`s model guidance. In fact, it appears sustained east winds through the Gorge will now top out around 10-15 mph, without much wind at all for the rest of the forecast area. Overall, Friday looks to be a dry day with temperatures somewhere in the mid 40s to mid 50s. 500 mb heights should gradually rise this weekend as a ridge over the western United States becomes more amplified as suggested by the EURO and GFS ensemble means, potentially rising above 580 dm by late Sunday. The WPC`s cluster analysis is also showing a strong signal for ridging over the region this weekend. This should result in slightly warmer and drier than normal conditions. That said, the deterministic EURO/GFS are both showing a weak closed surface low moving into the forecast area on Saturday, bringing a chance of rain for locations north of Eugene. The exact strength and track of this low remains quite uncertain, and Saturday could wind up mainly dry if the low tracks far enough to the north. The EMC`s GEFS plumes for QPF at Astoria, Portland, and Salem show many ensemble members that produce no QPF at all on Saturday. In fact, there are considerably more ensemble members producing no QPF at all than members that do produce light QPF amounts. Therefore, current messaging for Saturday is only a slight chance of rain, which is also what the NBM suggests. Chances for rain are highest over southwest Washington and the far north OR coast. After what looks to be a dry Sunday with above normal temperatures, conditions will begin to change quite a bit early next week. Models and their ensembles now suggest widespread rain is likely across the entire forecast area Sunday night through Monday as an upper level trough and potential closed surface low push into the Pacific Northwest. While confidence is high there will be widespread rain, confidence is very low in regards to how much rain. There is still a very large amount of model spread for QPF, anywhere from a few hundredths of rain to several inches according to the GEFS. After analyzing WPC`s 500 mb EOF patterns for Monday, it appears much of the model variance can be explained by uncertainty regarding the amplitude of the upper trough that is set to move in with or just behind the surface low. -TK && .AVIATION...00Z TAF preliminary thoughts: As generally expected, the low clouds from this morning continued to lift and dissipate with mostly VFR conds across the area as of 30/22Z. Mid level clouds will dissipate this evening leaving variable high clouds. Feel these high clouds will be thin enough which will allow low stratus and possibly fog to develop most areas. If fog should occur, it seems most favored for the usual suspects (KONP, KHIO, and KEUG). KPDX and KTTD may escape the low cloud threat entirely as very weak easterly outflow from the Gorge may keep low levels mixed well enough to prevent development. Do expect whatever does develop will take until 01/20-22Z to lift back toward MVFR conds. For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse KPDX AND APPROACHES...Aside from an initial threat of 020 cigs mentioned above, expect VFR conds through the evening. Visual approach rates may be limited from a FL020 cig beginning 08Z/midnight local and lasting until shortly after sunrise. /JBonk && .MARINE...Very little change needed for the afternoon forecast package. Observed winds and seas appear to be holding fairly close to the forecast with satellite derived winds across the northern waters hinting at gusts around 25 kt and the central waters holding at 20 kt or less. Seas are running a couple feet higher and close to 11 ft for the far northern waters as extrapolated from the OOI buoy 46100 off the Westport, WA coast. Remainder of the previous discussion largely remains valid with only minor edits made. Will see increasing west to northwest swell arriving later tonight into Wed, with main swell running 9 to 12 ft. As such, will leave the current advisories in place as the winds are gradually replaced with combined seas at 10-12 feet for the next few days. Cold front will push across the region on Wed, but not all that much in way of winds in advance of the front. But, different story once the front passes. With high pressure building well offshore, will see gusty north to northwest winds behind the front later Wed night and Thu, with gusts 20 to 30 kt. Still will have swell running 10 to 12 ft. Friday and Saturday bring weak pressure gradients across the waters, however, low pressure located well offshore will bring some form of easterly component winds. Sunday heading toward Monday has significant uncertainty regarding surface low pressure centers and the track they take. Current worst case from a few model solutions has a deepening surface low crossing the coast over the Columbia Mouth with strong winds possible, however, there are more solutions which take the low further north into Vancouver Island and somewhat weaker. && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until noon PST Thursday for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Cascades in Lane County-South Willamette Valley. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PST Thursday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cascade Head OR out 60 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Wednesday to 6 AM PST Thursday for coastal waters from Cascade Head OR to Florence OR out 60 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Columbia River Bar. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 AM PST Wednesday for Columbia River Bar. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

000 FXUS66 KMFR 010006 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 405 PM PST Tue Nov 30 2021 The Aviation section has been updated... .DISCUSSION...There really isn`t much to say about the weather for the next several days. From now through Friday night, the upper level ridge will be in firm control, keeping the preferred storm track, and any significant chances of rain, well to our north. Instead, we will be under mostly clear skies, with the exception of the valleys of the West Side and the Klamath Basin, where night and morning fog and low clouds will be the rule. There is a chance that the valleys could open up and clear through the week, depending on if periods of easterly winds or the trailing end of a front can help mix out the air and disrupt the valley inversions, but confidence on any given day is low. The best chance of clearing does appear to be tomorrow, however, so the forecast has been changed a bit to reflect this possibility. It will be tough for any approaching systems to make inroads against what amounts to be a rather resilient ridge. The models do show a much more robust trough forming in the northeastern Pacific late in the week, then pushing into the coast Saturday and Sunday as the ridge weakens and shifts to the west. While the precipitation with this front will once again likely stay to our north, it will shift the pattern enough to allow for a second system to arrive early next week. The ensembles, while agreeing with the general pattern, have several differences in how this will unfold but the general idea is that an atmospheric river sets up, originating from the tropics near Hawaii (a true pineapple express), and funneling it into the northern Pacific Northwest Saturday, then a more compact low develops, picks up the residual moisture plume from the departing system, and pushes that through our area Monday into Tuesday. Lately, we have seen these systems in the long term forecast dissipate and shift north in the days leading up to the event, and this certainly is a possibility, however, with the ensemble suites showing moist onshore flow from Seattle all the way to southern California, chances are much better that we will see some active, wet weather, it just remains to be seen how much rain and wind we can expect. Given the somewhat wide range of solutions, suspect we will see many updates in the coming days as the models come to a better consensus and confidence increases. -BPN && .AVIATION...12/01/00Z TAFs... Afternoon clearing of low clouds and fog under the continuing inversion did not completely scour out of the Shasta Valley southwest of KSIY, from about Medford north and westward in the Rogue Valley to between Rogue River and Grant Pass, across much of the Illinois Valley, and for the valleys from Merlin to Galice to Azalea and Glendale. Overnight through Wednesday morning low clouds and fog will reform across many valley areas similarly to how it did in the last 24 hours. East of the Cascades, however, lower dewpoints than 24 hours ago mean that freezing fog and low clouds will probably be a bit later in forming and coverage is likely to be a bit less than 24 hours ago. Tuesday IFR/LIFR conditions in many valleys are likely to clear from the coast and east side by noon. West of the Cascades, like today, fog and low clouds are likely to begin to break up on valley edges late morning, some areas in the afternoon, and other areas, such as KMFR and Grants Pass, are most likely to only improve to IFR-MVFR. Outside of the valleys, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. ~BTL && .MARINE...Updated 215 PM PST Monday, 29 November 2021...Winds become northerly over most areas later today and will be gusty at times south of Cape Blanco. Even so, sustained winds probably remain just below small craft advisory levels, though advisory gusts are possible this afternoon. West swell will build on Wednesday, bringing advisory level seas for all areas. Thursday into Friday, northerly winds will increase further, and these conditions combined with the higher west swell are likely to result in very steep and hazardous seas and a Hazardous Seas Watch has been issued. Seas are then likely to remain elevated Friday into Saturday before subsiding. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for ORZ029-030. Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for ORZ031. Air Stagnation Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for ORZ024-026. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters... Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to noon PST Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday morning for PZZ370-376. $$

000 FXUS66 KEKA 302247 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 247 PM PST Tue Nov 30 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Less coastal and valley cloudiness is expected for Wednesday, along with unseasonably warm inland daytime temperatures. Gradually cooling and more fog and low clouds is expected through the weekend. Rain may return to the area by early next week. && .DISCUSSION...A ridge of high pressure is building over the west coast. The axis remains over offshore and this is setting up some offshore flow for tonight. This should limit the fog along the coast, although some of the northern interior valleys will likely see fog again tonight. The airmass is fairly warm so am not expecting frost in areas where the growing season continues. This will need to be monitored though, as the airmass will be drier and could allow temperatures to fall further than expected. Wednesday through Friday the ridge starts to slowly move over the area and then start to flatten. this will likely bring some more night and morning low clouds and fog to the coastal areas and inland valleys. High temperatures are expected to gradually diminish through the week as well. Northerly winds at the coast will be slightly breezy Wednesday afternoon before they diminish late in the week. Saturday another system looks to move by to the north of the area and this could bring some more drizzle to the coast. Otherwise conditions are expected to remain dry. The first chance for rain is on Monday or Monday night. Most of the ensembles show some rain getting as far south as southern Humboldt, although solutions vary on how much rain will make it that far south. Confidence in the rainfall amounts is higher near the Oregon border. There is the potential for some rain to make it to Mendocino and Lake counties, but many of the ensembles are dry as well. MKK && .Aviation...Low clouds and fog have deteriorated along the coast early this afternoon, with mostly VFR conditions expected across the area as gusty NW winds help to mix out low clouds...apart from kicking up some MVFR haze at KCEC this afternoon. A last gasp of stratus/mist may move over KACV and the Humboldt Bay region early this evening, however offshores developing overnight will likely erode this layer should it develop by tonight. VFR is then expected through the night across the area. && .Marine...Northerlies will spread northward today and continue to increase over all zones, with gusts expected to reach 30 knots or so over the outer waters and around Cape Mendocino this afternoon. A slight weakening trend is forecast on Wednesday as the higher winds shift further offshore. This is expected to be shortlived, with higher winds pushing back closer toward the coast on Thursday. Most guidance then suggests that winds will weaken throughout the day on Friday and then remain mostly in the gentle to moderate breeze range through the weekend. Otherwise, a series of westerly swells are forecast to move through the coastal waters during the next seven days. && .BEACH HAZARDS...High astronomical tides will occur by late in the week, with morning high tides approaching the levels required for minor coastal flooding (around 8.8 feet in Humboldt and Del Norte counties), particularly around portions of Humboldt Bay. Any positive tidal anomaly could increase the risk of flooding. /SEC && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to midnight PST tonight for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until midnight PST tonight for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST Wednesday for PZZ475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

000 FXUS66 KMTR 010009 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 409 PM PST Tue Nov 30 2021 .SYNOPSIS...Offshore winds in the hills tonight will keep overnight temperatures mild in the hills leading to another day of above normal highs on Wednesday. Continued mild Thursday with a modest cooling trend into the weekend but temperatures still above seasonable normals and dry through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...as of 02:25 PM PST Tuesday...Mostly sunny and clear skies over our CWA this afternoon. Current temperatures are within a few degrees of where they were this time yesterday as we look at another warm day across the Bay Area and Central CA. The clear skies and warm weather are thanks to the high pressure ridging over NorCal that has previously been discussed. It will persist tomorrow, when we expect our warmest temperatures this week, then the ridge weakens as we move into a gradual cooling trend into the weekend. We are expecting offshore flow to impact us this evening and overnight, especially across the North Bay hills. However, this is not considered a strong, impactful offshore wind event. Gusts will likely be moderate ranging 25-40 mph with the gusts near 40 mph limited to our higher peaks in the North and East Bays. This offshore flow should keep things drier in our region which should mean that we won`t see patchy dense fog in the morning as we have the past few days. Looking at tomorrow`s high temperatures, as said in the previous AFD, we went higher than our NBM guidance since the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index, shows Central CA in the 80th to 90th percentile for max temperatures. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to range between 17 to near 20 degrees C which is pretty warm for this time of year. The Bay Area will see widespread 70s tomorrow putting daytime highs around 8-15 degrees above normal...some places may be warmer if the offshore flow mixes down into the valley locations, but the inversion will hinder this possibility. We will likely see widespread low 80s for Santa Cruz, San Benito, and Monterey counties which puts daytime highs 10-20 degrees above normal. Beyond Wednesday, the 850 mb temperatures show a gradual cooling which will translate to the surface. Expect a few degrees of cooling each day Thursday into the weekend as we return to widespread 60s to low 70s by Saturday. The big question on a lot of people`s minds is when will we see rain again. Latest guidance continues to hold off on any rain chances until around December 6 at the earliest. And even at that, the best chances are for the North Bay into SF area as an inside slider moves southward from the Pac NW into CA. If this comes to fruition, then it will likely be a "slight chance" event with light rain amounts. A tenth of an inch looks to be the highest potential total right now in the North Bay. Will continue to monitor the ensemble models to see if this trend of light rain by the end of the first week in December holds. && .AVIATION...as of 4:09 PM PST Sunday...For the 00z TAFs. VFR prevailing through the TAF period, aside from possible morning HZ trapped under a stable surface layer. Satellite imagery shows some high cirrus passing over, but otherwise clear conditions over land and the coastal waters as high pressure builds overhead. An increase in NE flow tonight will bring marginal low level wind shear concerns of 20-30kt and some drying of the boundary layer, reducing likelihood and coverage of fog (though not completely eliminating it for sheltered areas). Somewhat breezy offshore upvalley/coastal gap winds possible in places such as the Salinas Valley tomorrow (see KSNS taf). Vicinity of KSFO... VFR with light to calm winds, becoming light NW this evening. Slight low level wind shear is possible tonight 20-25kt from the NNE around 2000 ft AGL. Hazy conditions Wednesday morning (possible MVFR level vis) and into the early afternoon but dew point depression spread looks too wide to support FG. KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Monterey Bay...VFR through the TAF period. Breezy upvalley winds in the Salinas Valley overnight into Wednesday morning, i.e. 8-13kt with gusts to 15-20kt. Winds becoming light onshore in the afternoon. && .MARINE...as of 03:43 PM PST Tuesday...Locally breezy across the outer waters and coastal jets this afternoon and into the evening. Northerly winds will gradually subside tonight into tomorrow. Locally lighter offshore winds develop tomorrow out of the Golden Gate gap Wednesday. Meanwhile, a series of moderate period northwest swell prevails through the week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 AM SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 9 PM SCA...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 9 PM SCA...SF Bay from 3 AM SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm from 3 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Bingaman AVIATION: Lorber MARINE: DRP Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

000 FXUS66 KOTX 010011 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 411 PM PST Tue Nov 30 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Rain showers will linger in the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle through Wednesday. Strong winds are expected across the Cascade ridges overnight and tomorrow. Temperatures will remain very mild with record high temperatures on Wednesday. A cool down toward more seasonal temperatures is expected late this week into this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight and Wednesday: It will be another breezy and mild night across the Inland Northwest with the region remaining well south of the Polar Jet and accompanying atmospheric river streaming across south-central BC. The main threat for rain will continue to be along the Cascade Crest and rising terrain of Northeastern Washington and North Idaho but rain intensities will be waning leading to light to locally moderate additional precipitation amounts. Two main weather features of note will be the mild temperatures and gusty winds. *Winds: We are seeing very subtle changes in the position and strength of the jet stream in the next 24 hours however models do indicate a few changes within the layers of stability of the atmosphere and winds within the lower atmosphere. The most notable change being reflected in the guidance as a 5-10kt increase of wind within the lowest 0.5-2km above ground layer. Consequently, it will be another breezy night across the Palouse, Columbia Basin, and our mountains. Similar to Monday night, we anticipate a stable weather environment in which the mountain valleys and lower river valleys remain decoupled from the stronger winds aloft. The exception for tonight could be across the northern rim of the Columbia Basin and Waterville Plateau from the West Plains to Davenport to Wilbur toward Mansfield. Thinking these areas will experience gusts 30-35 mph and low end potential for speeds 40-45 mph. The strongest winds would be possible between 11PM and 9AM. Much stronger winds are anticipated on the ridgetops in the Cascades. Wind gusts will likely exceed 50 mph and could approach 70 mph or stronger on a few of the higher peaks. This carries much higher confidence and has been a consistent message in the models. It was also observed this morning (TUE). A few notable wind gusts that were observed include Mission Ridge at 96 mph, Dirty Face Summit at 57 mph, and Dry Creek RAWS at 49 mph. Winds will be breezy to gusty on Wednesday as well but speeds look to peak in the morning and come down through the afternoon; the windiest locations will remain the Columbia Basin, Palouse, Foothills of the Blue Mountains as well as the higher terrain. As for impacts, there is likely to be some tree damage in the higher elevations where there is no population. Those venturing in the backcountry for wood, hunting, or recreation should be cautious of potentially high winds. In the lowlands, wind impacts should be minimal to none. Cannot rule out some isolated tree damage with weak or dead trees if gusts reach 45 mph but this carries low confidence. *Temperatures: Mild temperatures will be here to stay for another 36 hours with overnight lows 5-10 degrees warmer than our "normal" highs. On that note, EC ENS gives the entire area a 0-10% chance of falling below freezing. Rain chances look to migrate northward on Wednesday with drier air in the 700-500mb layer. Given the increasing chance for sunshine, steady surface, and winds and another 4C of midlevel warming...confidence is high that Wednesday will be warmer than today delivering yet another afternoon of record breaking warmth as temperatures warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s. The one caveat adding some uncertainty to the forecast for Wednesday afternoon is moisture (ie cloud cover) within the 850-700 mb layer across the Eastern Basin and N ID. This could be the one factor that impacts temperatures a few degrees. Wednesday night through Thursday: A cold front will slowly sag through the region ushering cooler temperatures and bringing one last round of showers to our mountains. Most of the precipitation will fall before snow levels drop to pass levels so we are not anticipating any impacts to travel. Winds will remain breezy with gusts 20-30 mph through the day as cooler air seeps in from the north. Winds will also shift from the west and southwest to the north and northwest. This will not be a very strong cold front yet a 8-12 degree drop in temperatures is expected from Wednesday to Thursday. However, if you put this in perspective, since we will be running 20+ degrees above normal Wednesday, Thursday will continue to feature above normal temperatures with afternoon highs cooling into the 40s and 50s. /sb Friday: As the jet that has been place weakens and shifts South, the region will begin to be influenced by cooler temperatures. The can expect a around an eight degree drop from the previous days highs. By late Friday, an incoming system will begin to press snow showers into the Cascades. Highs for the day are expected to be in the upper 30s and 40s. Saturday and Sunday: The system is expected to press through the Inland Northwest on Saturday. Ensembles are not carrying a lot of precip and keeping it in the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle. It will be a mountain snow and valley rain event. Winds across the Basin are expected to be gusty into the 20s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 20s and low 30s. Highs for the period will continue to be in the upper 30s and 40s. Late Sunday through Tuesday: Models are indicating a stronger system will begin to approach the region late Sunday. As of now, the track is heading into the WA coast. Ensembles are showing widepsread showers. While the consensus is mountain snow, the confidence is low on the precip type for valleys and Basin. The GFS lowers 850mb temperatures below freezing while the EC keeps them a few degrees above freezing. Whether it occurs during the day or night also plays a factor. For now, the lowland precip will start as rain and slowly shift to a rain snow mix by late Monday. Highs will drop 40s to the 30s. Overnight lows will begin to dip into the 20s and low 30s. /JDC && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: The main aviation concern in the next 24 hours will be strong winds located within a few thousand feet of the surface, low-level wind shear, and uncertainty in timing if these winds will surface at any air fields. Forecast is leaning toward a more stable environment and longer duration of wind shear. A few of the airfields along the upper reaches of the Columbia Basin from KGEG to Wilbur to Mansfield will carry the greatest risk for wind gusts 30-40 mph. Strong winds are likely to impact the mountains and create turbulent flow across our mountain ridges. A secondary concern will be MVFR cigs developing from upsloping flow into NE WA and N ID. Coverage likely to be broken at times around Coeur D Alene, Sandpoint, Bonners Ferry, and Spokane at times. Thinking this will likely bounce from sct-bkn throughout the night. -Shra will continue to impact N ID and at times, far eastern WA. Numerous -shra will also lead to mtn obscrns along the Cascade Crest. /sb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 44 58 43 50 29 42 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 44 55 43 50 32 44 / 20 20 10 0 0 0 Pullman 44 59 43 50 32 46 / 20 10 10 0 0 0 Lewiston 46 62 46 57 39 50 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Colville 43 53 39 50 26 40 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 43 53 42 48 31 41 / 40 30 10 20 0 0 Kellogg 43 54 43 49 34 45 / 40 30 20 20 0 0 Moses Lake 45 62 42 53 29 45 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 45 63 43 51 32 43 / 10 0 10 0 0 0 Omak 42 57 38 50 27 42 / 10 10 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$

000 FXUS66 KPDT 302217 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 217 PM PST Tue Nov 30 2021 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday...A flat upper level ridge with its axis off the coast continues over the region placing the forecast area under a slightly northwesterly flow. The main storm track and associated moisture stays mainly north of the forecast area but the onshore flow will keep a chance of rain in the forecast from the central Washington Cascades northward and then clipping the mountains of SE Washington and NE Oregon through this evening under the northwest flow. The ridge axis will move over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday further lifting the moisture northward and producing a pretty much dry forecast other than near Snoqualmie Pass where a few showers remain possible. The ridge will also boost temperatures up another 5 to 10 degrees Wednesday with record high temperatures possible. Thursday will see the main storm track sag southward slightly as the flat ridge pattern continues. This will allow precipitation in the Washington Cascades to drop south to around the Mount Adams area but remain dry across the rest of the forecast area. Temperatures will also cool 5 to 10 degrees taking us out of near record high temperatures but still remaining above normal. A tightening of the south to north pressure gradient over NE Oregon will continue to produce some locally windy conditions across the southern Grande Ronde valley over the next couple of days. .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...Models are in much better agreement in the long term period than the last few days and forecast confidence is increasing. Models continue to show a ridge over the eastern Pacific and the west coast with a couple of troughs flattening the ridge briefly. Friday will start with a flat ridge and a westerly flow over our area. Friday and Friday night look dry and partly cloudy though clouds will be increasing overnight as a weak trough approaches the area. Temperatures Friday will be about 10 degrees cooler than Thursday with highs mainly in the 40s with some lower 50s in central Oregon, the Ochoco-John Day Highlands and the John Day Basin. A weak trough on Saturday will bring some light rain and snow to the Washington Cascade crest but the rest of the area will remain dry. Snow levels will start out around 2000 feet in the Washington Cascades and rise due to warm air advection to around 4500 feet in the afternoon. Due to the rising snow levels, snow amounts will be less than an inch and rain amounts will be up to a quarter inch. The warmer air will raise temperatures Saturday to the 50s with a few upper 40s in the mountains. Breezy winds are expected in the afternoon. The ridge will reassert itself Sunday and it will be a dry day with temperatures a few degrees cooler in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Models have some timing differences with the arrival of a trough either Sunday night or Monday. This one looks stronger than the Saturday trough and the whole area will have a chance of rain with snow levels at 7000 to 8000 feet. The lower elevations will get up to a third of an inch of rain, up to two thirds of an inch for Bend southward and one to two inches in the mountains. Have kept a slight chance of rain in the mountains for late Monday night and Tuesday in case the slower trough timing is correct. Temperatures will continue in the mid 40s to mid 50s though Monday will be slightly warmer than Tuesday. Perry/83 && .AVIATION...00Z TAFs...VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Light showers are expected along the Washington Cascades through this evening but are not expected to impact any TAF sites. Skies will be BKN-OVC at 5K-12K feet AGL through this evening becoming SCT and mostly above 15K feet AGL through 00Z tomorrow afternoon. Southwest winds at PSC will continue at 20 to 30 kts with gusts to 40 kts through about 03Z before decreasing to 12 kts or less around 09Z. ALW and PDT will have southerly winds at 10 to 20 kts through 03Z. Otherwise, winds will remain below 12 kts for the next 24 hours. Perry/83 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 47 67 46 58 / 10 0 0 0 ALW 50 67 50 59 / 10 0 0 0 PSC 52 66 48 61 / 10 0 0 0 YKM 44 65 43 58 / 10 0 0 0 HRI 48 68 46 60 / 10 0 0 0 ELN 44 61 43 52 / 10 0 10 0 RDM 41 67 40 60 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 44 59 46 56 / 20 0 0 0 GCD 42 61 42 60 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 46 64 46 58 / 10 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...91 LONG TERM....83 AVIATION...83

000 FXUS65 KREV 302147 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 147 PM PST Tue Nov 30 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Strong high pressure over California and Nevada will continue to force the Pacific storm track north of the region. Temperatures will run well above seasonal averages through the weekend. Strong surface inversions and poor mixing may lead to some air quality degradation, especially over urbanized areas of western Nevada. && .SHORT TERM... A benign weather pattern settles across the region for the next few days as strong high pressure centered offshore from northern CA builds into the western US. This upper ridge forms the backbone of a more extensive mid-latitude blocking pattern dominating weather conditions over the Intermountain West from the CA coast east to the Rocky Mountains. The mid-level west-east ridge axis will extend across northern CA into western NV and bring mostly fair skies, light easterly winds, and above seasonal temperatures to the forecast region. Despite the lack of antecedent moisture over most Sierra valley locations and stronger overnight inversions, patchy dense freezing fog could still form around Truckee and some Sierra valleys after midnight before burning off later Wednesday morning. Subsiding air within the dome of strong high pressure could add to some minor air quality issues and hazy conditions through at least Thursday morning, mostly over more urbanized areas of Reno-Carson City. As the main high center passes over CA, then east into the Great Basin Wednesday through Thursday, the ridge axis will follow with a gradual shift south. Model guidance indicates that the upper winds will respond by veering from the east on Wednesday to a more general southerly component through Thursday morning. This could draw slightly warmer air into western NV and bring a slight pump-up in daytime highs on Thursday. Anomalously warm temperatures ranging from the mid-50s to low-60s will make for very pleasant conditions Wednesday and Thursday. The persistent dry conditions and stronger radiation cooling will aid in a diurnal temperature swing of 30-40 degrees so morning lows will remain on the colder side especially for Sierra valley locations. -Amanda .LONG TERM...Thursday through next week... Not much to talk about through the weekend with steady-state conditions under the ridge of high pressure. Highs will top out well above average in the mid 50s to mid 60s with large diurnal swings with dry conditions and nearly the longest nights of the year. There could be a slight tick down in highs Sunday as low pressure moves by well to the north and pushes some shallow cooling into the area. As we go into early next week, there will finally be something of note as a slider-type system drops into the West Monday night and Tuesday. Given the sensitivity of exact track for impacts with sliders and the fact that it is still about a week out, we must rely on ensembles to glean some preliminary information. The EPS (ECMWF ensemble) indicates a definite uptick in winds Monday and Monday night although only a handful show notable speeds (over 40-45 mph). As for precipitation chances, they are currently still in the 30-50% range per the NBM with the EPS indicating higher chances (per meteograms) with only around 20% of its runs showing dry conditions. In any case, amounts are currently projected to remain relatively light, although we have seen sliders show an uptick in amounts once finer-scale models are available within a day or two of the event. As for snowfall, currently the bulk of guidance shows fairly high snow level for the main precipitation period with lower valleys mainly rain. By the middle of next week, there looks to be a brief break with high pressure back overhead before another system possibly affects the region late next week. -Snyder && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period for Sierra and western NV terminals. Lower confidence for freezing fog formation at TRK so it was left out of the forecast for now. But brief periods of IFR conditions are still a possibility between 12-17Z Wednesday morning due to subsiding air and stable conditions under the dome of high pressure. Any freezing fog that develops will likely be rather shallow and patchy but may lead to very brief visibility restrictions through the above forecast time period. With high pressure in place and calm winds, we will continue to see some reduction in slantwise visibility due to the buildup of particulates and increased haze in more urbanized valleys. (RNO/CXP/MEV). -Amanda && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/reno

000 FXUS66 KSTO 302219 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 219 PM PST Tue Nov 30 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather continues. Locally breezy north to east winds today through early Wednesday, mainly in the foothills and mountains. Cool mornings with local fog in the Valley and mild afternoons expected over the next week. && .DISCUSSION... A weather system moving through the Great Plains region today has shifted the high pressure axis west, lessing upper heights over Northern California and causing surface pressure gradients to begin tightening. Current SFO-RNO surface gradient is around -8 mb. Locally breezy north to east winds are forecast today through tomorrow morning, mainly for the foothills and mountains. A few breezy gusts are being observed in wind prone areas this afternoon, but winds should pick up more this evening and last through early tomorrow for the foothills and mountains. Expect gusts up to 20-30 mph, locally up to 40+ mph near wind prone gaps, canyons, and ridgetops. In the Valley, winds won`t be as gusty as the pressure gradient isn`t very tight, mainly up to 15 mph, locally up to 20 mph. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be nearly 20 degrees above normal in the mountains, foothills, and northern Sacramento Valley due to the north to east winds. The northern Valley could see temperatures in the mid to upper 70s with upper 50s to 70s across the mountains and foothills. High pressure builds back over California tomorrow with flow becoming more zonal for the end of the week. Temperatures will lower a few degrees each day in the hotspot regions mentioned before, though they will still remain around 5 to 15 degrees above normal across the forecast area. Expect Valley and foothill temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s and 50s to 60s in the mountains. Mostly clear skies will lead to chilly nights with the potential for Valley fog formation in the evenings and early mornings each day. -HEC && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)... Ensemble guidance indicates high pressure will continue for the weekend across interior Northern California. Dry conditions and above normal temperatures will prevail with cool nights and patchy Valley fog. Ensembles continue to indicate that a weather system will move southeast from the Pacific NW into northern California sometime Monday into Tuesday, bringing the chance of precipitation to portions of the area. At this point, it seems like precipitation would be fairly light and mainly limited to the mountains and foothills, but confidence remains low in storm track, timing, and other specific details this far out. -HEC && .AVIATION... VFR conditions next 24 hours, except for local MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions due to BR/FG in portions of the southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin valleys after 06Z-08Z Wednesday. Local N-E surface wind gusts 25-35 kts possible in portions of foothills/mountains through 18Z Wednesday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

000 FXUS65 KMSO 010229 CCA AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion...corrected National Weather Service Missoula MT 532 PM MST Tue Nov 30 2021 .UPDATE...Recent model trends point towards a strengthening pressure gradient across western Montana Wednesday morning and afternoon. Therefore, forecast winds on Wednesday have been increased, particularly across mountain ranges in western Montana and along the Continental Divide. Thick cloud cover and a stable atmospheric profile will limit valley wind gust potential, particularly for narrow-mountain valley locations. Broad valleys, such as the Bitterroot and Flathead valley, and I-90 corridor from Deer Lodge to Butte will be prone to stronger wind gusts up to 35 mph. Mountain locations will see wind gusts exceeding 45 mph, with the strongest winds expected in the Anaconda-Pintler and Bitterroot Mountains, and in Glacier National Park. The pressure gradient will weaken on Thursday. The combination of cloud cover and stable conditions will reduce the threat of wind gusts exceeding 25 mph across valley locations. Therefore, the forecast has been updated to reduce valley winds. Gusty winds in excess of 30 mph will continue across mountain locations. The strongest winds will once again develop along the Continental Divide. /Lukinbeal AVIATION...Lingering moisture will allow for considerable mountain obscurations through Wednesday morning with some light showers on the terrain. Once we get to sunset, valleys will be mostly dry but with patchy fog early Wednesday. A strengthening southwesterly gradient and periodic cloud cover should limit fog potential in most valleys but patchy fog is still possible. Another slug of moisture will be focused on Northwest Montana on Wednesday with low clouds and rain on the terrain. Light rain is possible for the valleys on Northwest Montana on Wednesday but with limited aviation impact. Occasionally gusty winds will occur this afternoon and again on Wednesday with the southwesterly pressure gradient in place. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 230 PM MST Tue Nov 30 2021/ DISCUSSION...A low amplitude ridge of high pressure will persist over the Northern Rockies for the next several days. Warm tropical moisture continues to stream through this flow pattern at times. This moisture will keep light precipitation going this afternoon and evening. The moisture should transition up into Canada by tomorrow, but parts of northwest Montana appear to have some lingering shower activity. The warm air will keep temperatures well above normal for the remainder of the work week, but readings on Wednesday should break daily records. A strong upper level winds will be draped over the Northern through Thursday. These winds will cause breezy conditions in valleys with the higher terrain along the Continental Divide potentially experiencing damaging wind gusts. The models are still indicating that a weak disturbance moves into the Northern Rockies by Sunday allowing the upper level flow to become more northwesterly. This transition would allow for cooler air to move into the region potentially bringing the snow levels down to valley floors finally. AVIATION...Lingering moisture will allow for considerable mountain obscurations through Wednesday morning with some light showers on the terrain. Once we get to sunset, valleys will be mostly dry but with patchy fog early Wednesday. A strengthening southwesterly gradient and periodic cloud cover should limit fog potential in most valleys but patchy fog is still possible. Another slug of moisture will be focused on Northwest Montana on Wednesday with low clouds and rain on the terrain. Light rain is possible for the valleys on Northwest Montana on Wednesday but with limited aviation impact. Occasionally gusty winds will occur this afternoon and again on Wednesday with the southwesterly pressure gradient in place. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

000 FXUS65 KBOI 302122 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 222 PM MST Tue Nov 30 2021 .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...Very little change in the weather pattern is anticipated through the period, although the strong broad ridge will flatten somewhat on Thursday. Moisture off the Pacific will remain to our north, but may touch our far northern areas (with a slight chance of light snow) in the mountains north of Baker City and McCall this evening. The inversion and light winds will persist, leading to more rounds of late night through morning fog and stratus. The fog may be locally dense. Temperatures will remain above normal, especially in the higher elevations away from the inversion. .LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...An upper level high pressure ridge centered off the California coast will maintain dry weather and above normal temperatures through Monday. A frontal system from the north is forecast to move through the area on Monday night with showers expected through Tuesday evening. Snow levels lower to 4000-5000ft as the system moves through. Precipitation amounts with this system will be around 0.5 to 0.75 inch in the mountains with up to 0.25 inch in the valleys. Upper level ridging returns on Wednesday with dry and mild conditions. Temperatures will be 5-10 degrees above normal through the period. && .AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Areas of MVFR/IFR in fog and low stratus across valley locations overnight. Surface winds: variable 10 kts or less. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: west-northwest 20-40kt, strongest north of KBKE-KBOI-KTWF. && .AIR STAGNATION...An Air Stagnation Advisory continues in eastern Oregon and the valleys of western Idaho through at least Friday morning. The advisory may need to be extended through the weekend, although confidence is low at this time. Models are in good agreement on a storm from the Gulf of Alaska that looks strong enough to increase vertical mixing on Monday and end the stagnation. Until then, mixing height will stay at or below 2000 feet AGL (possibly rising slightly above 2000 feet this weekend), with light winds near the surface and no precipitation. The Air Stagnation Advisory only addresses atmospheric conditions, not pollution. Air quality is addressed by Idaho and Oregon Departments of Environmental Quality (DEQ). Contact information for DEQ is stated in the Air Stagnation Advisory. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Air Stagnation Advisory until 11 AM MST Friday IDZ011-012-014-033. OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 11 AM MST /10 AM PST/ Friday ORZ061>064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM....KA AVIATION.....KA AIR STAGNATION...BW

000 FXUS65 KLKN 302243 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 243 PM PST Tue Nov 30 2021 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure keeps Nevada mild and dry for the next several days, with near record warmth across central part of the state. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday. Cirrostratus spilled over Nevada behind progressive short wave, but these clouds are dissipating this afternoon. Nevada sits in between the main westerlies to the north and the southern stream, leaving a low amplitude but prominent high pressure covering the state. This pattern does not change Wednesday or Thursday. Mild sunny days, frosty nights, but dry weather persist. The warmest valleys are located along US50 and US6 where highs will be near record warmth at Eureka, Ely, and Tonopah. .LONG TERM...Thursday to next Tuesday. Dry and fair weather will continue across the CWA thru the first part of the period as ridging continues to prevail. Expect generally sunny skies and temperatures as much as 15 degrees above normal. Daytime highs will mostly range in the low 50s to low 60s with overnight lows in the low 20s to low 30s. Upper flow is indicated to increase and become northwesterly Sunday as ridging amplifies over the east Pacific. Main effects look to be breezier afternoon winds region wide and a slight decrease in temperature across northern Nevada. However, temps are to remain several degrees warmer than normal. Guidance indicates a Pacific cold front moving into the region from the north/northwest in the Monday/Tuesday time frame. There looks to be good agreement in prospects of the event occurring at this time. Unfortunately details on exact timing and strength of the front are quite muddy this far out with model solutions varying in this regard. It seems likely that northern Nevada stands a reasonable chance for valley rain/mountain snow, with lesser chances across central Nevada. Winds will also be breezy/windy along with temps likely cooling closer to normal. && .AVIATION... Nocturnal winds to 15kts prevail at KELY (southerly) and KTPH (northerly). Elsewhere, surface winds will be light and variable. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 88/92/88