933 FXUS66 KSEW 120239 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 739 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .SYNOPSIS... The latest forecast remains on track this evening. Dry weather will persist this weekend into next week as an upper level ridge builds over a thermal trough this weekend. Temperatures remain on track to increase over the weekend into early next week into the 80s and 90s across the region, with much of the lowlands seeing moderate HeatRisk and a few isolated areas of major HeatRisk. The dry and unstable airmass will also produce elevated fire weather concerns. Onshore flow returns Monday night into Tuesday, with breezy winds bringing in cooler air. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Upper level pattern remains the same, continuing to show that ridge beginning to set up over Western Washington on Friday, bringing max temperatures between 70 and 75 degrees along with it. On Saturday, expect localized moderate HeatRisk, with temperatures between 75 and 85 degrees at the hottest point of the day. Cloud cover will continue to be minimal over the Western Washington region. Widespread cloud coverage has located off the coast, with low clouds forming during the mornings over the Cascade and Olympic Mountains, eventually dissipating as the weekend days drag on. HPR/NW && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... The upper level ridge will continue to build over the thermal trough Sunday into Monday, which will produce an offshore pattern where temperatures will climb, and relative humidities will decrease. See fire weather discussion below for details on elevated fire weather concerns. The other concern is heat, with high temperatures remaining on track to peak Sunday into Monday. Given the persistent forecast in high confidence for widespread moderate HeatRisk Sunday/Monday, and pockets of isolated major HeatRisk in the Seattle metro and south/southwest interior, a heat advisory was issued, which will go into effect at 11 AM Sunday through 5 AM Tuesday. The warmest period will be from Sunday into Monday night. High temperatures will reach from the mid 80s into the upper 90s, with the warmest temperatures in the south sound/southwest interior. Overnight temperatures in the upper 50s/low to mid 60s also may not allow for homes to cool off substantially overnight from daytime heat. Additionally, water temperatures during this heat event remain chilly, with most lakes and rivers hovering in the 50s and 60s. Even with the warm air temperatures, the cold waters can result in cold shock for prolonged time spent in the water. Take precautions if spending time near the water, or if spending time outdoors early next week. The pattern remains on track to shift towards an onshore pattern late Monday night into Tuesday, as ensembles have the ridge weaken and shift eastward. Onshore flow will increase as early as Monday night, persisting into Tuesday and through the week. There will be a few breezy areas, particularly the southwest interior, the Strait of Juan de Fuca coast, and along the Cascade Crest, where there is potential for winds up to 25-35 mph Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The onshore winds will be slow to bring temperatures down initially, with highs in the interior Tuesday still ranging from the mid 70s into the mid 80s. The immediate Pacific Coast will see the first of the relief from the heat, with the spread of cooler air moving further inland on Wednesday and Thursday, with highs in the interior dropping into the 70s. Moisture remains virtually nonexistent during the period, although overnight diurnal pushes will bring in some cloud coverage. The chance of showers remains slim, with only a 20% chance of them in the Cascades and Olympics Wednesday and Thursday. HPR && .AVIATION... VFR this evening under northwest flow aloft, with northwest winds around 5-10 kt. Probability for low ceilings tonight remain highest along the Pacific Coast, with a 50-70% chance of MVFR, and a 40-60% chance of IFR along the coast. Some patchy fog can`t be ruled out either in these areas. The timeframe for low ceiling development is from 12Z to just before 18Z, before clearing to VFR. Winds overnight into Friday shift to the northeast around 5 kt or less, then back to the northwest 5-10 kt. KSEA...VFR likely to persist through the TAF period. Winds NW this evening 5-10 kt, switching to the northeast 5 kt or less overnight, then back to the north/northwest 5-10 kt Friday afternoon. HPR/15 && .MARINE... High pressure will build over the coastal waters through the end of the week. This will keep the pattern onshore for the next couple of days, with a push expected to produce winds up to 25 kt in the Strait of Juan de Fuca this afternoon/evening. A small craft advisory continues for central and east sections through tonight. The ridge axis will move close to the coast over the weekend, with a thermal trough also building up the coast. This will result in periods of offshore flow to northerly flow from Saturday through Monday. The likelihood of winds exceeding 20 kt during this period remain low, but the outer coastal waters may see north winds approach 20 kt Friday afternoon, and Puget Sound waters approach 15 kt Saturday afternoon. The ridge will weaken and move east, and onshore flow will return Monday night through midweek. There is potential for winds exceeding 20 kt in the coastal waters late Monday through midweek, as well as a potential for gale gusts in the Strait of Juan de Fuca Tuesday. Seas through Monday will hover around 4-6 ft, and increase to 6-8 ft through midweek, with potential for seas 8-11 ft in the outer coastal waters next week. HPR && .FIRE WEATHER... An upper level ridge offshore will move to the coastline Saturday through Monday. A thermal trough will build under the ridge, creating a dry, warm, and unstable airmass across the region. While recent rains helped fuels from reaching critical red flag criteria going into the weekend, elevated fire concerns will remain for dry grassy/shrubby areas, as well as piles of dead fuels. Highs in the 80s to 90s, combined with northeast winds coming down the Cascades/Olympics, will result in relative humidity values as low as 15-20%, particularly in the south interior, and in valleys of the Cascades where temperatures will be hottest. A few gusts up to 20 mph in the central interior and the Cascade crest from the north/northeast will be possible over the weekend during the morning/afternoon periods. While relative humidities will improve with the return of onshore flow Tuesday, winds will become particularly gusty, with portions of the coast/mountains/south interior seeing west to northwest winds gusting up to 25 to 35 mph. HPR && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Eastside- Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties- Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades- Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula- Island County-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County- Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-San Juan County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PDT Friday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$

165 FXUS66 KPQR 120456 AAB AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 956 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 ...Updated public and aviation discussions, and watches/warnings/advisories sections... .SYNOPSIS...An upper level ridge gradually builds over the far northeast Pacific then western WA/OR over the next several days ushering in a prolonged stretch of dry and warm/hot conditions. An Extreme Heat Watch is in effect Sunday afternoon through Tuesday evening for the greater Portland/Vancouver Metro, western Columbia Gorge, central Willamette Valley, and portions of the lower Columbia for daytime highs of 95-100 degrees and overnight lows in the mid 60s or warmer, resulting in Major HeatRisk. Heat related impacts are anticipated for much of the region. Temperatures will trend cooler for Wednesday onward with the return of onshore flow. && .EVENING UPDATE...The Extreme Heat Watch has been upgraded to an Extreme Heat Warning across the Portland/Vancouver Metro Area and the western Columbia River Gorge between 11 AM Sunday and 11 PM Tuesday. Elsewhere, Heat Advisories have been issued for the same timeframe except for the immediate coast and high Cascades. We have high confidence in hot temperatures this weekend into early next week, which will come close to or break daily records. In addition, this is the first heat wave of the year, so many people have not acclimated to this level of heat yet. Therefore, these heat hazards were issued across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. In the Portland/Vancouver Metro Area, overnight low temperatures in the mid to upper 60s will lead to poor overnight relief Sunday night into Monday morning, and Monday night into Tuesday morning. Will note that there is a 20-30% chance that low temperatures remain warmer than 70 degrees Sunday night into Monday morning across the Portland/Vancouver Metro, and a 5-10% chance Monday night into Tuesday morning. While temperatures may cool down slightly on Tuesday, the compounding effects of the multi-day heat event would still be felt. In addition, we`ve seen in the past that guidance will cool us off too fast at the end of a heat event. Extending the Heat Advisories and Extreme Heat Warnings into Tuesday is not only an added buffer, but a message to the public that the effects of heat may still be felt on Tuesday despite a slight cool-down. -10 && .SHORT TERM...Now through Saturday Night...Seasonable conditions through Saturday as high pressure gradually builds over the Northeast Pacific. 500 mb height ensembles are in excellent agreement in regards to this ridging pattern which leads to a high confidence in warming and drying each day. Friday will be essentially a rinse and repeat of today with highs in the upper 70s and overnight lows in the mid 50s. On Saturday we will see a spike in temperatures where the median high temperature in the northern Willamette Valley will be in the lower 90s, southern Willamette Valley in the upper 80s, and along the coast in the 70s. Overall, Saturday sits under a Moderate HeatRisk. There are some areas of Major HeatRisk within the greater Portland-Vancouver Metro, but interestingly, there is a around a 30-40% chance within the Lane County Coast Range. Likely this is due to increased easterly winds and dry air aloft. Now, with this pattern developing, there will be a trend towards easterly offshore winds. Conditions will begin to get breezy on Saturday within the Columbia River Gorge, and the southern and central Willamette Valley (where winds will be northerly). These speeds are not unusual though and nothing to write home about. -27 && .LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...Heat remains the main headline for the start of next week as temperatures ramp up considerably on Sunday and Monday. The high pressure ridge will amplify on Sunday and shift slightly eastward aligning over the Coast Range. This alignment will coincide with a thermal through (low pressure caused by high temperatures) which will be a contributing factor to breezy winds in the afternoon. But first, let`s look at those temperatures on Sunday and Monday. Models have been fairly consistent with Sunday and Monday being the hottest of the next week, and Monday being the peak heating day. High temperatures will vary based on location but overall, there are increasing chances for records to be broken or tied. These records are listed below in a designated "climate" section. As it stands, reaching 100 deg on Monday with around a 25% chance in the Greater-Portland Metro. The coast could be impacted as highs are forecast to reach near 80 degrees. In areas like Tillamook, a high temperature of 85 degrees F is not out of the question. Downsloping east winds will amplify temperature rises along the coast and Willamette Valley on both Sunday and Monday. There is a mixed bag of Moderate and Major HeatRisk, but in the industrial areas of Portland there is also a 10% chance of Extreme HeatRisk. The Extreme Heat Watch remains in effect for Sunday through Tuesday and will continue to be evaluated. The consideration being taken at this point are the locations that may be impacted and our confidence level for the temperatures. A factor to take into account in this forecast are also the overnight low temperatures. In general, we are seeing overnight lows in the mid-60s and even near 70 degrees on Monday into Tuesday night. These temperatures will leave little to no relief overnight. HeatRisk takes this into account in the calculation but in this case, those temperatures are sitting right on a threshold. Therefore, there remains a level of uncertainty in whether the overall risk will be there. In addition to the heat, there will also be increasing fire weather concerns in areas with cured grasses and finer fuels. A thermally induced surface trough will establish itself somewhere west of the Cascade crest starting on Saturday helping to strengthening offshore flow for Sunday and Monday as well. This will bring breezy conditions within the western Columbia River Gorge/Cascades gaps and the Willamette Valley. As daytime highs increase, relative humidities will also decrease. Given the hot, dry, breezy conditions expected, there are increasing fire weather concerns over the weekend through the start of next week, especially Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. Based on feedback from area partners, fuels are not quite cured yet, but we are unsure how the days of drying and warm conditions will impact them. Be aware of potential ignition sources such as chains dragging on the pavement, hot vehicle components, as well as cigarette butts as these could easily result in the ignition of cured grasses and dry, fine fuels. Live vegetation and larger fuels may not have enough time to dry out prior to the dry and breezy conditions, but this is a variable that is being closely monitored by our State and Federal Fire Partners. Starting Tuesday, temperatures will start to decrease. This is due to a trend towards a troughing pattern from the northeast Pacific. While about half of the ensemble clusters suggest a trough, the other half maintain the ridging pattern. Therefore, confidence is quite low in regards to just how much cooler we will be on Tuesday. It is also not uncommon for models to degrade highly amplified ridges like this too early. Because there is not a robust system moving in, seeing a degradation of the ridge is going to be less drastic. On Tuesday, the most likely range (25th-75th percentile) ranges from 85-90 deg F within the Willamette Valley and 60-65 deg F along the Coast. The 90th percentile though, which would be the situation where the ridge maintains its position, would see highs around 92-94 deg F in the interior lowlands. For those of you who are not heat fans, as we move into Wednesday, onshore zonal flow returns along with seasonable temperatures through Thursday. -27 && .AVIATION...VFR flying conditions beneath largely clear skies expected for most terminals throughout the TAF period. Winds easing under 5 kt overnight. High pressure offshore will maintain diurnal north to northwest winds, increasing in the afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt along the coast and southern Willamette Valley. Chances for MVFR CIGs remain around 20-40% along the north Oregon coast. If any low clouds develop, it would clear out by 16-17z Fri as daytime heating progresses. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with clear skies through the TAF period. Northwest winds around 5 kt or less overnight, increasing near 10 kt in the afternoon as pressure gradients tighten. -10 && .MARINE...Expect a typical summertime pattern persist into next week as high pressure builds offshore. Diurnal northerly winds will strengthen, peaking each afternoon and evening starting today, but becoming more noticeable from Friday through at least early next week. Winds of 15-20 kt with gusts near 25 kt south of Cape Foulweather will trend weaker to the north. Due to these conditions, Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the waters south of Cape Falcon through Friday night. These Advisories will likely need to be extended as gusty conditions persist over the next handful of days. Seas continue to hold around 4-7 ft at 9-11 seconds with a persistent westerly swell. Long-range guidance brings a return of more active weather and a higher chance of elevated seas by the end of next week, but confidence in this pattern change is low. -36/99 && .CLIMATE... Record highs for Sunday, June 14 Portland Int`l 89F (1988) Vancouver, WA 93F (1986) Hillsboro 96F (1961) McMinnville 93F (1986) Salem 92F (1961) Eugene 92F (1914) Astoria 86F (1914) Record highs for Monday, June 15 Portland Int`l 95F (1966) Vancouver, WA 95F (1930, 1966) Hillsboro 99F (1961) McMinnville 96F (1961) Salem100F (1966) Eugene 96F (1966) Astoria 91F (1966) && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ104>108-113>119-121>125. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ109>112-120. WA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for WAZ202>205-208-210. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for WAZ206-207-209. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ252-272. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ253-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

074 FXUS66 KMFR 120819 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 119 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 .DISCUSSION...We`re having another clear night in southern Oregon and far northern California. Cool overnight temperatures are being experienced across the region, but we will warm up quickly again today. The warm trend continues late this week into the weekend, culminating in a broad heat wave expected during the Sunday to Tuesday (maybe Wednesday - esp east side) time frame. A broad trough over the Rockies and Central Plains will shift east over the coming days, allowing an upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific to amplify and build into the western US through this weekend. With high pressure in control, a thermal trough has strengthened along the coast, with temperatures in and around Brookings expected to rise well into the 80s again today and Saturday. Models show the peak of offshore flow tonight into Saturday morning, so it could be quite warm at the mouth of the Chetco tonight (not much cooling) as the NE winds funnel down the river valley. With onshore flow lacking into Saturday, it could conceivably reach into the 90s, even though current models don`t explicitly show that potential. Inland, temperatures will rise by 2 to 5 degrees over the previous day each afternoon into this weekend. The upper level ridge will weaken slightly Saturday night as a trough interrupts the flow briefly, then the ridge rebuilds quickly and remains overhead through the first part of next week. This interruption will push the thermal trough inland, and this will result in very warm temperatures Sunday through Tuesday/Wednesday. Daytime highs across the area will be 20 to 25 degrees above normal for early to mid June, with widespread triple digit, or upper 90s, highs west of the Cascades, and upper 80s to low 90s to the east. Model forecast 850 temperatures (a very reliable signal for daily highs) are forecast to reach 26 to 28 degrees C, which when mixed to the surface (especially now during our longest daylight hours of the year), suggest highs could reach as high as 105 degrees F in Medford and Grants Pass, and as high as 110 in the lower Klamath and Salmon valleys in western Siskiyou County. These will be the highest temperatures we have seen so far this year, and chances are very good that we will see record daily highs for many locations across the region. NWS HeatRisk is showing widespread moderate impacts with areas of major impacts. At this time, it appears as if nighttime temperatures will be somewhat of a mitigating factor to the heat, since most areas should be able to cool off adequately. As such, this looks like an advisory level event. We`ll be evaluating the need for heat headlines over the next couple of shifts. The ridge is expected to flatten a bit by Wednesday. This could be delayed by as much as a day, as these patterns typically are, which will let temperatures cool slightly through the rest of the week. However, temperatures are still expected to remain above normal. Of note, we also tend to see an increased risk for thunderstorms on the back side of heat waves. As has been the case over the last few shifts, model suites keep the area dry at the end of this one, but there are some hints of instability starting to appear in some runs on Wednesday or Thursday afternoon, mainly over Modoc and Siskiyou counties. The limiting factor will be atmospheric moisture, which appears lacking as of now, and a clear trigger to set off convection. So while chances are very low now, we can not rule out some lightning around the middle of next week. Confidence should improve as we get closer to the time period in question, and model better resolve the situation. -Spilde/BPN && .AVIATION...12/12Z TAFs...VFR levels persist across northern California and southern Oregon under stable atmospheric conditions. Chances for cloud development over North Bend and along other coastal river valleys near sunrise remain, but chances for a dense enough layer to affect flight levels remain slight. If stratus does develop, clearing is expected within a few hours after sunrise. Gusty winds are expected along the coast and possibly at the Roseburg terminal late Friday morning and through the afternoon. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Friday, June 12, 2026...A thermal trough pattern will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep wind-driven seas across the southern Oregon coastal waters through this weekend. The worst conditions are expected south of Cape Blanco, where gales and very steep seas will persist through the weekend. Winds ease some on Sunday, but steep fresh swell is likely to persist into Monday. Gusty north winds likely strengthen again around Tuesday. /BR-y && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 100 AM PDT Friday, June 12, 2026...A steady warming and drying trend is expected through the rest of this week, culminating in an early season heat wave this weekend into early next week. Generally, temperatures will warm by 3 to 5 degrees and humidities will trend about 3 to 5 percent drier each afternoon (minimum RHs 10-20%). Meanwhile, broad north through east flow will produce moderate to poor RH recoveries over upper slopes/ridges each night, especially over the Klamath mtns, Siskiyous, and Cascades. There could be a period of gusty offshore E-NE winds over the Siskiyou Mtns and coast ranges Friday night/Saturday morning with peak gusts in the 25-35 mph (40 mph?) range. Our typical diurnal afternoon breezes could become gusty at times, particularly Friday/Saturday. While critical conditions are not expected within the current forecast, localized conditions could get close, especially considering the low teens and single digit minimum humidities that are likely during the peak of the heat wave. The heat wave will reach a peak Sunday through Tuesday, with daytime highs about 20 to 25 degrees warmer than normal for early to mid June. Also of note, once the heat begins to ease midweek, we will need to keep an eye out for possible thunderstorms. Model guidance is not currently showing any significant convection chances, but there are some hints in the various model suites, and thunderstorms do typically accompany the breakdown of a heat wave in this area, so there is at least a very slight potential, probably focused on far northern California and the East Side. Confidence is low right now, but we will update the forecast as necessary over the coming days. -Spilde/BPN && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ022. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-370. Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376. && $$

558 FXUS66 KEKA 120745 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1245 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will warm quickly with moderate to major HeatRisk expected through the weekend and into early next week. - Coastal stratus is possible tonight south of Cape Mendocino. - Potential cooling trend in the inland areas starting on Wednesday. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure continues to build into the area with hot temperatures expected into early next week. The near coastal and coastal areas may start to see more marine influence over the weekend and into early next week while Trinity county is expected to see the hottest temperatures Monday and Tuesday. Cooler temperatures are possible starting on Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure continues to build in across the area and the interior is expected to see a few hot days of this heatwave. A southerly surge of clouds could make its way up to Ukiah but the likelihood of that depends on available moisture at low levels and advected stratus into the Russian River Valley and Anderson Valley. This will likely start to cool temperatures at the immediate coast and inland to areas as far as Boonville or so. Overnight lows will likely drop into the 50s in most of the valleys, however the ridges are expected to stay much warmer, likely in the 70s. This will increase the heat risk in these areas. For the weekend a weak upper level trough is expected to drop down from the north. This is expected to bring some instability, but current moisture profiles look like they remain too dry for any thunderstorms. Temperatures are expected to remain more steady fluctuating somewhere around 100 in the afternoons. The winds southerly winds along the Mendocino coast are expected to slightly increase and keep the stratus in place. The high pressure is expected to keep the marine layer fairly shallow and it may mix out each afternoon. Sunday it looks fairly certain that the marine layer will be well north of Cape Mendocino as the winds get lighter. Monday and Tuesday high pressure continues to the strengthen over the area and is expected to some of the hottest temperatures of this heat wave to Trinity county. Areas closer to the coast there is more uncertainty and this will need to be monitored as it gets closer. Wednesday the high pressure is expected to start to break down and cooler temperatures are expected aloft. This will cool temperatures across the area and likely deepen the marine layer. MKK && .AVIATION...VFR conditions prevail at the coastal terminals overnight with minimal cloud cover as offshore wind continues. Southeasterly winds have become the dominant regime as the high pressure dome expands off the coast of the PACNW. Diurnal patterns will continue with wind gusts returning Friday afternoon, at a lighter clip than previous days. Models hint at a few hours of reduced visibility around 12z or so at KCEC and KACV. The southerly push overnight could push light fog or stratus up the valley towards KUKI but moisture is lacking with the dry easterly winds as a source. /EYS && .MARINE...Gale strength northerlies persist through the outer zones through Saturday. The southern outer zone will have less coverage Friday, mainly around Cape Mendocino and westward. Northerly winds and steep seas will continue advisory conditions for the inner zones. Strengthening northerlies over the northern outer waters Friday will build steep and hazardous seas up to 14 ft. The northern inner waters will have to be watched for a brief surge of hazardous seas late Friday. Currently it looks like the gales will continue beyond 10 to 20 nm north of Cape Mendocino on Saturday, then start to diminish on Sunday and this allows a southerly surge to move northward. Winds are generally expected to remain lighter into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures are expected to remain hot and dry into early next. Over the weekend a shortwave moving down form the Pacific Northwest is expected to increase instability and this may lead to increased mixing heights. It doesn`t look like there will be enough moisture in NW California for any thunderstorms, that is expected to remain well east and south of the area. Early next week temperatures may climb slightly more and the hottest temperatures of the heat wave are expected. Wednesday into late in the week cooler temperatures are expected. This may also bring stronger winds or possibly thunderstorms depending on how the pattern evolves. MKK && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Friday for CAZ113-114-118>120. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for PZZ455. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ470. Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Friday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

465 FXUS66 KMTR 120719 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1219 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1215 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 - Hot and dry through today for interior locations with a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides anticipated across coastal regions of the San Francisco Bay Area - Increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents along south- and southwest-facing beaches this weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1215 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 (Today and tonight) GOES-West nighttime microphysics imagery reveals a much-welcomed surge of stratus returning to Pacific coastal locations since the evening hours. This has resulted in broken/overcast skies to communities such as Monterey, Salinas, Santa Cruz, and Half Moon Bay, as well as the western half of San Francisco. Areas of fog have also been reported. Some locations in the Santa Cruz Mountains are running 10-15 deg F cooler compared to 24 hours ago. Following a hot day for interior areas, temperatures have been running generally a few to several degrees warmer. Upper-level ridge remains the dominate synoptic feature over the eastern Pacific. For Friday, areas covered in Moderate HeatRisk will be primarily reduced to interior locations of the East Bay and South Bay. For these locations, the Heat Advisory continues through Friday evening. Temperatures will continue to moderate region-wide on Saturday. High tide flooding will occur nightly along the Bayshore through the middle of next week. The combination of an upcoming new moon and lunar perigee on Sunday, and about 7 inches of additional tidal anomaly from a combination of storm surge, thermal expansion of the Eastern Pacific, and about 2 inches inches of Sea Level Rise since the vertical datums were established in the 80s and 90s will add up to bring tides up to 1.8 feet above normal through the weekend. While lower than the historic tidal flooding in January (peaked at 2.6 ft) the tides this weekend could end up being the highest observed in the Summer, beating the current record of 1.7 ft from July 2022. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1215 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 (Saturday through Thursday) A short-wave trough will cut along the outer periphery of the eastern Pacific ridge over the weekend. This will promote further cooling for interior locations into the second half of the weekend. Coastal locations can expect the usual June stratus. While temperatures will return closer to middle-June climatology, the main hazards will be the southerly swell along the coast, plus the coastal flooding associated with the high tides && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1012 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 A southerly surge of low clouds will continue to work its way north up the coastline overnight. Generally light onshore winds and a shallow marine layer should limit inland extent of low clouds overnight. IFR/LIFR ceilings and reduced visibility will impact primarily coastal sites overnight into Friday morning, including the Monterey Bay terminals and KHAF where localized fog has developed. Low clouds should spill through the Golden Gate, although confidence in the extent across SF Bay is lower. Low clouds should recede to the coastline by late Friday morning, then increase again Friday night. Winds Friday will be moderate onshore. Inland, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Vicinity of SFO...Light west-northwesterly winds will prevail overnight. Stratus will flow through the Golden Gate into the SF Bay overnight with a few low clouds moving over the airspace. Moderate confidence that it will remain VFR through the TAF period. By Friday early afternoon, winds will become west- northwesterly and moderate (10-15 kts). A similar pattern will set up for Friday night with additional low clouds moving into SF Bay. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Primarily LIFR ceilings overnight with periods of IFR as well. Visibility will also be reduced but confidence in fog developing with visibility less than 1SM is lower. Conditions should improve by late Friday morning with generally VFR conditions in the afternoon. Light onshore winds overnight, increasing to 8-15 kt Friday afternoon. Low stratus resulting in IFR conditions is expected to return Friday evening. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Wednesday) Issued at 1012 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 The gradient between subtropical high pressure in the Eastern Pacific and lower pressure over California is supporting a moderate to fresh northwest breeze across the northern coastal waters. Rough seas will gradually subside through the weekend as the winds decrease. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1241 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. Be sure check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-506- 508. Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for CAZ510-513>515. PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT early this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rowe LONG TERM....Rowe AVIATION...Tangen MARINE...Tangen Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

014 FXUS66 KOTX 120717 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1217 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers over the northern mountains on Friday and a 10-25% chance for thunderstorms over the Northeast Mountains into North Idaho. - Dry and breezy Friday Okanogan Valley with elevated fire weather conditions - Warming well above normal over the weekend into early next week. Minor HeatRisk into the weekend and increasing threat for moderate HeatRisk Monday into Tuesday. - Very warm and dry conditions and gusty westerly winds Tuesday into Wednesday with a dry cold front passage will bring the potential for critical fire weather conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will warm above normal through the weekend into next week. The warm up will be muted on Friday with a low pressure system clipping the northeast portion of the region. The weather system will bring breezy northerly winds down the Okanogan Valley along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily over the mountains of northeast Washington into North Idaho. Then a strong ridge of high pressure brings summer like temperatures to the region Monday into Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s and 90s. Fire weather will be a concern Tuesday into Wednesday with warm, dry conditions and gusty westerly winds with a cold front passage. && .DISCUSSION... Friday: A shortwave dropping along the downstream side of an offshore eastern Pacific ridge will clip northeast Washington and north Idaho on Friday. Associated mid-level cooling will steepen low and mid level lapse rates to 7-10C/km. Combined with mid-to-upper level moisture and diurnal heating, 300-800 J/kg of SBCAPE will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.Inverted-V soundings highlight a very dry boundary layer with 400-900 J/kg of DCAPE. As precipitation falls into this dry layer, evaporative cooling will force gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph with these showers and thunderstorms. Additionally, a tightening northerly pressure gradient will funnel stronger winds down the Okanogan Valley into the western Columbia Basin Friday morning through afternoon. Sustained northerly winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 25-40 mph, paired with relative humidity values dropping to near 20 percent, will support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions in the Okanogan Valley. Saturday through Tuesday: Models are in excellent agreement for an upper-level ridge amplifying off the PNW coast this weekend before shifting inland by Monday. With the ridge axis initially offshore, western Washington and Oregon will feel the brunt of its influence as thermally induced surface pressure trough builds west of the Cascades and an offshore flow pattern develops Saturday and Sunday. For the Inland Northwest, temperatures will gradually warm this weekend with highs in the 80s to low 90s on Sunday. By Monday, models show the ridge axis shifting inland. 850mb temperatures warm to 20-25C across the Inland Northwest, translating to widespread surface highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. This will result in a widespread moderate HeatRisk across the region - a level of heat that is dangerous to those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without effective cooling and/or adequate hydration. On Tuesday, a strong 130-140 kt jet over British Columbia will flatten the ridge and drive a dry cold front across the Pacific Northwest. A return to onshore flow and a marine influence west of the Cascades will lead to a strengthening cross-Cascade pressure gradient and strong westerly winds across the Inland Northwest. Despite the ridge flattening, the region will still be under its influence on Tuesday with temperatures warming into the mid 80s and low 90s. Combined with relative humidity values in the teens to low 20 percent range, this could be the first broader critical fire weather day in central Washington. In fact, the NBM has a 30-50% chance for sustained winds greater than 15 mph and relative humidity below 20 percent, which is a decent signal 5 days out. This will be continued to be monitored over the upcoming days. Wednesday through Friday: Temperatures cool for the latter half of the week in the wake of the cold front, though models begin to diverge on the specifics of the synoptic level evolution. Around 60% of ensembles keep a subtle ridging influence over the PNW through, maintaining dry conditions and slightly above normal temperatures. The other 40% have some degree of troughing over the region, with cooler/near normal temperatures and breezier conditions. /vmt && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: VFR conditions will prevail. A shortwave trough dropping south from British Columbia will lead to cumulus buildups around 16-19z Friday for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE that may be capable of producing showers. The chances for showers are too low to include in the KGEG-KSFF TAF (10-15% chance). Those chances increase to 25% for KCOE, KSZT, and Bonners Ferry from 20z Fri-02Z Saturday. Thunderstorm chances for northeast Washington and north Idaho are around 15-25%. Gusty outflow winds will be the primary hazards with showers and thunderstorms. Winds will be increasing from the north down the Okanogan Valley Friday morning through Friday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is high confidence in VFR conditions. Low confidence for shower impacts for KGEG-KSFF-KCOE. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 76 47 77 49 82 53 / 10 20 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 73 48 76 49 81 54 / 20 20 0 0 0 0 Pullman 73 44 76 46 79 49 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 80 51 83 53 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 76 43 80 46 85 52 / 20 10 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 71 46 74 48 81 53 / 50 30 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 72 46 75 47 81 52 / 30 30 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 83 52 85 53 90 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 81 57 84 60 89 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 80 52 84 55 90 61 / 10 10 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

516 FXUS66 KPDT 120506 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1006 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm trend will continue through early next week - Locally breezy north to northeast winds Saturday and Sunday - Breezy to locally windy conditions developing Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to elevated fire weather conditions && .DISCUSSION... Today through Sunday: The region will sit between an amplifying upper level ridge offshore and a broad trough centered over the northern Great Plains through the weekend. Conditions will remain dry across the forecast area through this period, while diurnally driven winds develop today and Friday. Over the weekend, ensemble guidance is in good agreement of shortwave troughing diving down the northern Rockies, which will clip the PacNW. This will shift surface winds to the north and northeast Saturday and Sunday, with locally breezy winds (10-20 mph) developing from the Columbia Basin into central OR in the afternoons. This will lead to elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the OR Columbia Basin Saturday and Sunday afternoons, though chances of Red Flag thresholds being met either day are only 20-40%. Sunday, ensemble cluster guidance is in good agreement that the upper level ridge offshore will move closer to the PacNW, which will introduce chances (40-70%) of hitting 90 degrees across portions of the Columbia Basin and eastern Gorge. Monday through Wednesday: Ensemble cluster guidance is in good agreement that the upper level ridge will slide inland Monday, limiting wind concerns but also increasing the warming trend across the lower elevations, with mod-high confidence (70-85%) of widespread max temperatures in the 90s Monday. With the ridge axis moving overhead, winds will become light, which will limit fire weather concerns to the very dry conditions in the lower elevations. By Tuesday, great agreement remains in the upper ridge breaking down as it moves further inland, bringing the peak of the warming trend in the afternoon as well as introducing breezy to locally windy conditions to the intermountain PacNW (confidence 60-70%). Medium range and ensemble guidance has backed off the potential of hitting 100 degrees on Tuesday, with the NBM showing a 10-20% chance (it was 30-50% 24 hours ago) across the lowest areas of the Columbia Basin. While chances of Major HeatRisk developing Tuesday have dropped considerably (10-20%), ensemble guidance does show an increase in Major HeatRisk chances (15-45%) Monday along the eastern Gorge, Yakima Valley, and WA Columbia Basin. Wednesday, uncertainty grows in the evolution of the synoptic pattern, with about 40% of ensemble cluster members favoring a shortwave trough impacting the region (cooler and breezy conditions), while the remaining members show a quasi-zonal flow aloft (mild and breezy conditions). Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast at all sites for the next 24 hours. Winds will be diurnally driven with periodic afternoon and early evening gusts of around 15 kts at all sites, except DLS where higher gusts of 20-25 kts are likely (80 percent confidence). Mostly clear skies are anticipated. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry and warming trend through early next week. RHs will drop into the teens to low 20s through Saturday, then teens through Wednesday. Locally breezy north to northeast winds develop over the weekend, with localized elevated fire weather conditions. Breezy to locally windy conditions develop Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper ridge breaks down, resulting in widespread elevated fire weather conditions across the lower elevations. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 49 80 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 53 80 53 84 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 51 84 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 51 85 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 52 84 51 87 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 48 78 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 44 82 44 84 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 44 77 44 80 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 43 82 43 83 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 55 84 56 90 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...82

579 FXUS65 KREV 120722 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1222 AM PDT Fri Jun 12 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Very warm and dry weather conditions through the weekend with low chances of showers and isolated storms in the afternoons for Mono county. * Hotter conditions are expected next week, resulting in moderate to major HeatRisk by mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... A single thunderstorm developed south of Mono Lake today before dissipating as it traversed to the southeast. Expect daily thunderstorm chances (15%) for Mono county this weekend as CAPE values range from 300-400 J/kg. DCAPE values are also over 1400 J/kg, meaning outflow gusts could range from 45-55 mph. This additional synoptic forcing is owed to a low pressure system cycling over the San Francisco Bay Area. The other main story is the incoming heat. Afternoon weekend highs will be in the mid 90s for valleys and mid 80s for Sierra communities. As high pressure builds over British Columbia through next week, we heat up further. There is a 40% chance for Reno to hit 100F next Tuesday, with a 15% chance South Lake Tahoe will reach 90F or above. As such, Moderate HeatRisk extends into the Tahoe Basin, with areas of Major HeatRisk in the lower valleys east of US-385. With summer heat settling in nicely, get back into the routine of drinking plenty of water and reapplying sunscreen. -Giralte && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected for all terminals through the weekend, with the only exception of KMMH where brief MVFR conditions may arise in the wake of any shower or thunderstorm development. Odds are 15% or less, though showers that develop will be capable of gusty and erratic winds with brief heavy rainfall. Warming continues through mid next week, which may produce density altitude impacts for KRNO/KCXP/KMEV. -Giralte && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

222 FXUS66 KSTO 111923 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1223 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Critical fire weather conditions in the Sacramento Valley through 5 PM PDT this evening due to gusty north winds and low humidity. -Well above normal temps in the lower elevations with widespread Moderate HeatRisk / Areas of Major HeatRisk into the weekend & triple-digit highs Thursday-Saturday. -Significant warm-up Monday-Tuesday for the northern and central Sacramento Valley, with increasing Areas of Major HeatRisk && .DISCUSSION... It`s sunny with well above normal temperatures this early afternoon, 2-5 degrees warmer than yesterday. North winds mainly peaked this morning, with gusts to 30 to 40 mph in the Sacramento Valley, strongest along and west of Interstate 5. Humidity levels barely recovered overnight, so far (around noon) have dropped into the range around 10 to 20 percent, likely drying further by late afternoon down into the single digits in some locations. The winds have combined with the low humidity to bring extended periods of critical fire weather conditions for the Northern Sacramento Valley and into the foothills of the northern Coast Range, with a Red Flag Warning remaining in effect through 5 PM this evening. Winds will remain breezy through the afternoon but should continue to decrease, becoming much lighter by evening. Even after the Red Flag event is over, expect low humidity levels and periods of breezy onshore winds into next week, bringing elevated fire weather conditions into early next week. Onshore flow, increasing humidity and cooling temperatures are expected mid to late week, lessening fire weather concerns. Triple digit Valley highs are expected this afternoon and continue through at least the early weekend in many locations. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is expected starting this afternoon, with areas of Major HeatRisk on Friday, and less so on Saturday across mainly the foothills. Delta breeze influenced locations will see some cooling through the weekend, while the northern Sacramento Valley, mountains, and foothills are forecast to see just slightly lower highs. The Heat Advisory continues for the northern and central Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills through 11pm Saturday, June 13. While other areas in the Valley will benefit from the Delta breeze cooling influence, especially in the evening, it remains important for everyone in interior NorCal to practice heat safety! Stay cool and hydrated, and consider checking in on those more sensitive to heat. Early next week high temperatures have trended higher for the northern and central Sacramento Valley, and could see even higher temperatures than for late this week. Major HeatRisk areas have also been trending larger there. Temperatures are forecast to trend lower mid to late week. Mainly dry weather is expected into next week, but can`t completely rule out a few stray showers or an isolated thunderstorm over the Sierra crest south of US HWY 50 over the weekend into Monday. Weak troughing and instability should at least produce some afternoon cumulus buildups in that area. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions with clear skies over the next 24 hours. North winds linger through the northern/central Sacramento Valley today with sustained winds 10 to 20 kts and gusts 20 to 30 kts until around 00z Friday. After 00z, winds shift to the west-northwest across the southern Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin with gusts up to 15 to 20 kts until 09z Friday and will linger after 12z for the Delta. North winds 5 to 10 kts remain over the northern Sacramento Valley into 18z Friday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for Butte County Below 1000 ft-Central Colusa County Incl. I-5-Central Glenn Co & Interstate 5-Eastern Colusa County-Eastern Glenn County-N. Sac Valley in Tehama County-Shasta Metro-Sierra (Tehama-Plumas) 1000- 3000 ft-Sutter/Yuba counties below 1000 ft-W Tehama Co Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Glenn/Colusa Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Shasta County 1000-3000 ft. Red Flag Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Butte County Below 1000 ft-C. Yolo/NE Solano including Woodland-Central Colusa County Incl. I-5-Central Glenn Co & Interstate 5-Eastern Colusa County-Eastern Glenn County-N. Sac Valley in Tehama County-Shasta Metro-Sutter/Yuba counties below 1000 ft-W. Glenn/Colusa Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Yolo County including Capay/I-505-Yolo / Solano County Hills. && $$

522 FXUS65 KMSO 111822 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1222 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front moving north to south across the region tomorrow will cause some thunderstorms and gusty winds. - A ridge building over the Pacific NW this weekend and early next week will cause a warming trend with temperatures in the upper 70s mid 80s in western Montana and mid 90s in central Idaho next week. A trough and surface cold front dropping out of Canada tomorrow will cause some thunderstorms and gusty winds. Current forecasts are for moderate thunderstorms with gusty winds around 40 mph, small hail, and heavy rain. Overall, we expect scattered thunderstorms of average intensity for western Montana. Thunderstorm chances are confined along I-90 and northward, so Idaho will be missing out on these storms. The ridge over the northeast Pacific Ocean will move inland and set up over western Washington and Oregon this weekend and into early next week. That will leave the northern Rockies under northwest flow. This is typically a showery pattern, but without much moisture to work with they are generally light showers and mostly confined to the mountains. With the ridge building in just west of our region, it will allow temperatures to finally warm up with some 90s expected in the low elevations of central Idaho like Orofino and Riggins by Tuesday. Western Montana will warm into the mid 80s. With the ridge axis to our west, this is a good pattern for occasional short waves to drop out of the northwest and cause showers and a cool down. Current forecasts don`t show this happening yet, but it`s the kind of subtle pattern that the models frequently miss at long lead times. In any case, it would be a low impact scenario if it does happen. Also, there is very poor agreement among the ensembles as to when the ridge breaks down, though many members start to show some sort of cool down by late next week. && .AVIATION...A ridge building over the U.S. West Coast will keep conditions mild today. A shortwave moving down the eastern edge of that trough will drag a cold front across the region tomorrow. Expect thunderstorms during the afternoon tomorrow with gusts up to 40 mph. Once the front moves through in the evening, it will shut off convection pretty quickly as more stable conditions develop. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

823 FXUS65 KBOI 120559 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1159 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Clear, warmer, and drier through the forecast. - Breezy conditions tomorrow through Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... Issued 232 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026 Pacific high pressure builds as a Great Lakes trough remains in place. These two synoptic features keep us in a tight pressure gradient as high pressure builds in. This means windy afternoons, especially Friday and Saturday, and a steadily warming and drying trend with clear skies. Friday will be 5 degrees warmer than today, and Saturday is forecast to be about the same as Friday. A short wave embedded in the flow brings increased winds Friday lingering into Saturday. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph can be expected in open areas, highlands, and ridgetops remaining elevated overnight into Saturday where they come down to 20-30 mph. Winds weaken heading into the long term as the warming and drying continues. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued 232 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026 Heat will continue to build across the region as an upper ridge moves in from the coast early next week. The area remains dry during this time as northwest flow aloft keeps monsoon moisture locked up over the Four Corners area. High temperatures will reach 10-15 degrees above normal by Tuesday, staying in that range through Thursday. Lower elevations will see highs in the low-mid 90s starting on Monday. Tuesday is forecast to be the hottest day, with Wednesday only a degree or two lower. For typically hotter sites in the Snake Plain the probability of 100 or greater is 10% or less Tue/Wed, while the chance of reaching 95 has bumped up to 50-80%. Models continue to show a trough approaching the Pac NW late next week. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 1118 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026 VFR and mostly clear. Surface winds: variable up to 10 kt through Friday morning, then NW 10-20 kt with gusts to 20-35 kt by Friday mid-afternoon through night. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: west to northwest 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR and clear. Surface winds: variable or SE 3-6 kt overnight. Returning NW around Fri/16Z, increasing to 8-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt in the afternoon. Weekend Outlook...VFR and mostly clear, except a few afternoon mountain cumulus. Surface winds: NW-NE 10-20 kt with PM gusts to 20- 30 kt Saturday, then W-NW 5-15 kt with PM gusts around 20 kt Sunday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JDS SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....DG

044 FXUS65 KLKN 111923 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1223 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Fair weather and warmer temperatures are expected through this weekend. * Very warm temperatures possible early next week && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Clear skies and dry conditions are expected through the forecast period due to a combination of zonal flow transitioning to upper level ridging. Daytime temperatures will be in the mid 80s through the weekend, after which the ridge takes over and temperatures are expected to climb to the mid 90s for the first half of next week. Overnight lows tonight will be in the 40s, with a few of the usual cold spots in Elko county dropping into the 30s. Low temperatures will also be impacted by the ridge, with overnight temperatures rising into the upper 40s by Friday night and into the 50s by Monday night. Typical afternoon breezes will be present through Monday, with slightly stronger winds shaping up for Elko county on Tuesday and Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for dry and warming conditions through the end of the forecast. No changes were made to base NBM output. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions and light winds expected through the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER...Quiet weather through the forecast period will prevent fire concerns from thunder or wind. Elevated temperatures and dry conditions will be the biggest fire weather factor during this time, with temperatures reaching the mid 90s for the first half of next week with widespread min RH values as low as 5% during that period. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...94 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...94