398 FXUS66 KSEW 272124 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 224 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather with a neutral flow pattern over Western Washington will continue today into Thursday. An upper level trough from the Gulf of Alaska will begin to sink down into the region Thursday into Friday, with an upper level low in California pivoting to the northeast, all over a surface trough across Eastern Washington. Showers will be likely Thursday evening into Friday morning for areas east of Interstate 5, along with a slight chance of thunder along the Cascade Crest. Warmer temperatures will linger through Thursday, before cooling down this weekend ahead of a warmup next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Western WA this afternoon sits under a small ridge/neutral pattern this afternoon (in between two upper level lows, one in the Gulf of Alaska, and one centered over the central California/Nevada border). Much of the area remains clear on satellite this afternoon, with a few areas of cumulus over the mountains, and a narrow cloud bank along the Pacific Coast. Temperatures this afternoon will continue to climb into the low to mid 70s, with lows tonight dropping into the low 50s. Winds will remain out of the north at around 5 to 15 mph. The pattern shifts Thursday as the low/trough from the Gulf of Alaska begins to southward, along with the upper level low in California pivoting northeast. A surface trough/low also sits in eastern Washington that will remain in place ahead of a cold front being driven by the trough with the low in the Gulf of Alaska. While the first part of Thursday will be mostly clear, cloud coverage will build in later in the evening. Daytime temperatures will still likely reach the upper 70s/low 80s by the afternoon, with dew points in the mid to upper 50s in some spots (couple pockets of 60). The HeatRisk is minor going into Thursday, although it may feel slightly muggy with the combination of the warmer temperatures and dew points. For precipitation Thursday night/Friday, convective ensembles have a complex of showers and thunderstorms forming in North- Central Oregon that will move to the north along the Cascade crest during the evening/early morning hours. By the time they reach Western Washington, it will be in the dark and more than likely the instability in the air will dissipate as the sun sets. There remains a 20% chance of thunder for locations along the Cascade Crest in the afternoon/evening for any convection that does make into the area ahead of sunset. Otherwise, the band of showers should be able to produce some beneficial rain for the region, with mean precipitation outputs showing around a quarter of an inch of QPF for areas east of I-5. The showers are expected to last into the first half of Friday. In addition to the rain, winds may become breezy in a couple areas along the waters Friday morning as strong onshore flow pushes in behind the cold front, particularly the Pacific Coast and Strait of Juan de Fuca. These winds would peak early Friday morning, with potential for gusts up to 30-35 mph in these areas. Otherwise, the weather cools down significantly on Friday, with highs only reaching the upper 50s to low 60s. Cloud coverage likely remains in place during the day, with potential for the coast seeing some cloud breaks late. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... The models agree on the cooler/mild air hanging around the region through the weekend as the trough axis sits along the coastline. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday remain in the 60s, with lows in the 40s. Cloud coverage hangs on a bit going into Saturday, with most of it beginning to clear out by Sunday. The trough moves completely out by Monday, inviting an upper level ridge to build over the region over a thermal trough building along the coastline. This will cause a significant warmup going into next week, with high temperatures returning into the 80s, and a chance for even a couple of 90s in the south interior on Tuesday. HeatRisk increases to moderate for Tuesday for areas in the interior away from water. Overnight temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning may also struggle to drop below 60. HPR && .AVIATION... An upper level low will spin to our south tonight with another low spinning over the Gulf of AK. In between lies western WA under stable conditions. The flow aloft is N to E, becoming S Thursday morning. VFR conditions prevail across the region. The coast will see low clouds and IFR conditions early Thursday morning. Moisture will wrap N and E into western WA Thursday night (after 06z Friday) for showers. 33 KSEA...VFR conditions. N winds to 10 kt easing this evening. 33 && .MARINE... Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the coastal waters for both wind and seas (through Friday). A strong onshore push will produce gales through the Strait of Juan de Fuca Thursday evening. Gales may persist through the day Friday and into Friday night. Wind and seas will ease and subside over the weekend. The flow will turn offshore early next week as a thermal trough forms along the coast. 33 && .HYDROLOGY... The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as needed. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

689 FXUS66 KPQR 280235 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 735 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Warm temperatures into Thursday. Shower and thunderstorm chances over the Lane County Cascades this evening. Shower and thunderstorm chances spread over the north Oregon and southern Washington Cascades Thursday afternoon and evening with the potential for some thunderstorms to become severe. Non- severe shower and thunderstorm chances west of the Cascades Thursday afternoon and evening. Cooler temperatures return Friday, followed by a drier weekend. Warming temperatures return early next week. && .DISCUSSION...Wednesday afternoon through Tuesday...Weak high pressure is building over the eastern Pacific Ocean off of the PacNW today into Thursday as the PacNW sits between a large closed low pressure system centered over California and a deepening low pressure system south of Alaska. Temperatures today and Thursday will be much warmer than previous days this week with the interior lowlands warming to the mid 70s to low 80s each day. More importantly, this upper level pattern is producing shower and thunderstorm chances across the region today and Thursday as moisture wraps around the north side of the CA low into central Oregon today and spreads north into northern Oregon and Washington tomorrow. Today`s chances remain limited to the Lane County Cascades with a 40-60% chance of showers and a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms. Chances for showers and thunderstorms become much more widespread and increase significantly on Thursday. The trough over the northeastern Cascades deepens closer to the PacNW as a strong shortwaves moves along the CA closed low over Oregon, leading to strong convergence and lift. CAPE increases significantly by midday/afternoon to 500-1000 J/kg in the Lane County Cascades and 1200-1600 J/kg over the rest of the northern Oregon and southern Washington Cascades and Hood River County. This is a significant amount of convective potential for this area. Additionally, models show 0-6 km shear of 30-40 kts concurrently. Guidance does show CAPE decreasing from south to north through the afternoon hours, lingering above 1000 J/kg the longest in Hood River and Skamania Counties and east into the evening hours, and this area is where thunderstorms could be strongest. SPC indicates a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms over the northern Oregon and southern Washington Cascades as well as a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5) of severe thunderstorms over a portion of Hood River County. What this means is there is a 30-45% chance of thunderstorms where some thunderstorms may become severe with hail up to at least the size of a quarter (1 inch) and wind gusts up to at least 60 mph. Additionally, there`s a 15-25% chance for non-severe thunderstorms west of the Cascades with best chances generally around and east of Interstate 5. These strong showers or thunderstorms could produce small hail and gusty winds less then 60 mph. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the Cascade crest in the afternoon and evening hours (except late morning in the Lane County Cascades) with best chances for severe thunderstorms between 4-10 PM PDT. Showers and thunderstorms that form along the Cascades could then move west into the foothills and interior lowlands with best chances of this also between 4-10 PM PDT. Heavy rain and flooding potential is increasingly becoming a concern for both the Cascades and the interior lowlands. REFS, HREF, and model soundings indicate PWAT values of 1.2-1.4 inches over the interior lowlands, which is extremely high for late May. This is right around the climatological maximum of 1.24 inches for May 28 based on sounding analysis at Salem, OR. PWAT values do decrease somewhat as elevation increases in the Cascades, but values are still around 0.75-1 inch which is still very high for this time of year. HREF and REFS are indicating rain rates could reach 0.25-0.5 inch per hour over the Cascades and western foothills with a few outlying members suggesting rain rates up to 0.8-1 inch per hour possible. For the lowlands, this guidance is indicating rain rates up to 0.25-0.3 inch per hour are possible, mainly north of Salem. These rain rates could create flooding issues for urban areas, low lying areas, and any other flood prone areas as well as landslides if the higher rain rates materialize. On Friday, the closed low over California finally begins moving east as the trough continues to deepen over the eastern Pacific. Shower chances continue on Friday morning, shifting to mainly over the Cascades by the afternoon. Temperatures also cool back into the mid 60s for the interior lowlands Friday and Saturday as the trough moves over the PacNW. A significant warming trend is then expected Sunday into Tuesday. Interior lowland temperatures warm into the 70s on Sunday, low to mid 80s on Monday, and upper 80s to possibly around 90 degrees on Tuesday. NBM indicates a 20-50% chance of high temperatures exceeding 90 degrees on Monday for locations around and north of Salem and a 50-70% chance on Tuesday for locations around and north of Corvallis. This pushes these areas into Moderate Heat Risk with a 10-25% chance of Major Heat Risk on Tuesday. -03 && .AVIATION...Northeast flow aloft today as an upper level low spins over central California. Expect predominately VFR conditions inland as residual stratus continues to scatter out this morning. Storms over eastern and central Oregon will likely send increasing mid to high level clouds across the forecast area later tonight. Low-end MVFR marine stratus along the coast is has pushed offshore near KAST, but remains along the coast near KONP. There remains around a 50% chance of improving to VFR this afternoon along the central Oregon coast. Chances for MVFR to IFR stratus returning to the coast increases to around 50-60% by 05-07z Thursday. North to northwesterly surface winds increase this afternoon with gusts up to 20-25 kt. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with few high clouds expected through tonight. Chances for MVFR stratus return to around 20-30% between 14-18z Thu. Northwest winds expected to increase to around 10-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt later this afternoon. /DH && .MARINE...High pressure offshore will maintain breezy north to northwesterly winds across the coastal waters through the remainder of the week. The strongest wind gusts are expected to peak later today through this evening with gusts up to 25-30 kt, highest across the outer waters south of Cape Foulweather. Otherwise, expect frequent gusts to around 20 kt. Seas around 9 to 10 ft this afternoon remain relatively steep and choppy, before building to around 11 to 12 ft later tonight into Thursday as a mid to long period northwest swell pushes through the waters. Wave heights then gradually subside back down to around 9 to 10 ft by Friday morning. Therefore, have extended the Small Craft Advisory for all coastal waters, including the Columbia River Bar, through Thursday night. High pressure is expected to strengthen this weekend across the coastal waters leading to a return of breezy northerly winds. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ210-251>253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

033 FXUS66 KMFR 280105 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 605 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026 ...AVIATION discussion updated for 00Z TAFs... .DISCUSSION...An upper level closed low will stay spinning over the Sierra Nevada will be the main weather-maker today and Thursday. This system will produce an active pattern of showers and thunderstorms, some of which will become strong (and perhaps even severe) this afternoon/evening and again Thursday afternoon/evening. Multiple shortwave disturbances will rotate around the low and since the low is located to our southeast, the showers/storms will move in a general east-west fashion across NorCal and SW Oregon. Currently, radar is showing an area of showers moving east-northeast to west-southwest over Siskiyou County, which put out a few lightning strikes as it crossed over Lake county earlier this morning. These showers will move out of the forecast area over the next hour or so. Meanwhile, another strong mid-level disturbance will develop over NW Nevada and move over the area this afternoon/evening. As the first shortwave moves away, this should allow for good destabilization late this morning and this afternoon with MUCAPE of 250-500J/KG. Good forcing, shear and steep lapse rates should support the convection this afternoon. In fact, a few showers have already formed up around Winnemucca and McDermitt, NV, with a handful of lightning strikes, as of noon. The shortwave will be within a belt of strong mid- level easterly flow of 35-45 kt, so storm motions will be very fast. Hi- res guidance shows cells developing early this afternoon around Modoc/southern Lake County and then potentially developing into a line of storms that will move east- west across NorCal & southern Oregon reaching Klamath Falls/Mount Shasta regions ~2-5 pm. By then, storms should have the ability to bring strong, gusty outflow winds of 40-50 mph, small hail and a good amount of cloud to ground lightning. This would also normally cause increasing concern for fire starts, but wetting rainfall across a good portion of the area yesterday significantly muted this potential. Showers/storms will continue to move quickly off to the west to the Cascades/Siskiyou Mountains 3-6 pm. The main uncertainty with storms this afternoon is if they will hold together once they move onto the west side during the evening. Models are showing much more stable air over here, but there is still some elevated instability/forcing that could maintain the storms at least until mid evening (8 pm or so). HRRR (a bit of an outlier) is showing the convection moving all the way to the coast by around 10pm- midnight. We think by then, it will mostly just be leftover showers. Tonight, while there is still a chance of showers, the thunder risk should end for a while. It won`t last long though as another shortwave moves into the area Thursday. Convection could get going Thursday morning in portions of Klamath/Lake counties, where instability is greatest. Models are showing 500-1000J/KG CAPE, steep lapse rates and good forcing, resulting in the potential for another round of gusty wind/hail producing storms. Mid-level flow isn`t as strong as it will be today, so storm motions will be slower and this could add a heavy rainfall risk, especially for storms that tend to form consistently over the same locations. While just about anywhere could see strong storms (except the coast), the most likely area for possible severe storms is up the Cascades (near/north of Crater Lake) and also over northern Klamath/Lake counties. This is where the Storm Prediction Center has a marginal risk. An inverted trough will maintain an area of forcing for showers to continue Thursday night focuses near the Cascades, but also over portions of the east side. On Friday, coverage of showers is greatest through the morning hours, but should diminish some as upper ridging noses in from the Pacific. Even so, there is still enough instability for a slight chance of thunder of the far east side. The next upper trough swings through the area on Saturday, but most areas likely remain dry (outside of S&E sections, where there`s still a chance of showers/t-storms). Sunday, PoPs are low (generally 10% or less), so most areas should be dry. Temperatures remain around normal this weekend. Models are consistently showing a warmup early next week -- the degree of which is uncertain. The majority of the guidance shows highs here in Medford in the upper 80s to near 90F Mon-Wed (peak of warmth on Tuesday) and about 5-10F lower at Klamath Falls. The range of solutions for Medford for Tuesday is 82-97F with a 50% chance of 90F or higher. A reasonable worst-case (90th percentile) would be 96F. -Spilde/BPN && .AVIATION...28/00Z TAFS...Thunderstorm activity continues over northern California and southern Oregon, especially east of the Cascades. Activity should wind down into tonight. Another round of thunderstorms is expected on Thursday, but with a focus on northern Lake and Klamath counties as well as areas farther north. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Wednesday, May 27, 2026...Gusty north winds will persist today, maintaining very steep wind-driven seas through tonight into early Thursday. There could be a brief period of gale force north winds this afternoon, south of Gold Beach and beyond 1-2 nm from shore. Otherwise, the strongest winds and highest seas will be from Gold Beach south. North winds will ease Thursday, but a long period west-northwest swell will build into the waters tonight into Thursday. This will maintain steep seas through Thursday, but seas will transition to swell dominated with the easing of winds. Conditions briefly improve early Friday, but this improvement will short lived as north winds increase again Friday afternoon, then persist through the weekend. Initially, advisory level winds and steep seas (possibly very steep seas) are expected south of Cape Blanco by Friday afternoon, but are likely to spread north of the Cape over the weekend. /BR-y && .BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 1200 PM PDT Wednesday, May 27, 2026...Long period northwest swell, originating from recent storms near the Kamchatka and western Aleutian Islands, will build into the southern oregon coastal waters today. Initially arriving as 2 to 3 feet at around 20 seconds, swell will peak at 6 to 8 feet at around 17 seconds during the day Thursday. The threat will be highest during periods of incoming tides, which will be during the morning, and during the late afternoon and evening on Thursday. Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on beaches than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the ocean. The waves can also move logs or other objects which could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. Avoid climbing on rocks and jetties. Stay away from the ocean and remain out of the water to avoid hazardous conditions. Never turn your back on the ocean! && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through late Thursday night for ORZ021-022. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356- 370-376. && $$

059 FXUS66 KEKA 272219 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 319 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Shower activity and the chance for thunderstorms continue late this afternoon and evenin. Potential for thudnesrtorms increase across the interior on Thursday. Breezy NW winds over coastal headlands and exposed ridges through this evening. A warming and drier trend expected Friday through mid- next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy nort-nortwest winds along the coastal headlands and exposed ridges through this evening. - Showers and occassional thunderstorms continue late this afternoon and evening. - Potential of thunderstorms increase (15-30% chance) across the interior on Thursday, capable of produce dangarous lightning strikes, brief heavy downpours, small hail, and gusty, erratic winds. - Drier with a gradual warming trend this weekend through early next week, with interior Minor HeatRisk potentially on Monday. && .DISCUSSION...Showers are rotating west-northwest around a low- pressure system centered over the Sierra this afternoon. As of 1 PM PDT, radar imagegry depicts thunderstorms with frequent lighting strikes just right the northern Humboldt Coast, between Orick and Klamath, before the steering flow pushed them westward over the waters. This development is driven by a sharp, mesoscale convergence zone where synoptic northeasterly flow associated with the afforementioned low- pressure is effectively undercutting and colliding with the gusty northwesterly wind flowing down the immediate coastline. In addition, northwesterly winds peack up along the coastal headland and exposed ridges this afternoon, where gusts from 25 to around 40 mph are observed. Winds are expected to diminish this evening into Thursday. An uptick in precipitation is expected late this afternoon and evening, with stronger showers and occassional thunderstorms. CAMs suggest organized convective showers moving westward across Trinity County. HRRR and HiRes-ARW model sounding guidances are suggesting elevated instability and steep mid-level lapse rates over Trinity County. There remain a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms over the high terrain in Trinity County, with a non-zero probability elsewhere. Frequent lightning, brief heacy downpours and gusty, erratic winds are possible with the strongest storms. On Thursday, isolated to scattered thudnerstorms are forecast to developed in the back side of the closed low Thursday afternoon. Cold air aloft and higher instability (MUCAPE value around 200-300 J/kg) will increase the chances (15-30%) of thunderstorms across the interior on Thursday, with the highest chance in Trinity County. Occassional cloud-to- ground lightning, brief heavy downpours, small hail, and gusty, erratic winds will be possible. A weak ridge builds in briefly on Friday, while the low exits the area shifting eastward. This will bring dry air across the area. However, some lingering moisture will yield in isolated mountain showers across the eastern portion of the area the on Friday. Although the chances of thundertorms are lower (less than 10%),a non-zero chances remains in place. High temperatures are expected to increase and become more seasonal for this time of the year. Saturday, a weak disturbance will move across the area and trigger another chance of isolated mountain thunderstorm development over NE Trinity County in the afternoon. The NBM has a chance of thunderstorms up to 15% in Trinity County for Saturday afternoon. While most model soundings depict a well- defined cap that could inhibit convection over most of our CWA. The 500 mb ridge appears to slowly build back Sunday through mid- next week, resulting in drier weather with a gradual warming trend. Minor HeatRisk will likely resturn on Monday, especially across the interior valleys. High uncertainties are for mid to late next week. Ensemble clusters suggest the ridge weakening and flattening by mid next week with a broad upper level trough developing over the Gulf of Alaska./ZVS && .AVIATION...Passing showers have brought brief periods of IFR along the coast but otherwise gusty north winds under high overcast ceilings have generated mostly VFR conditions all along the coast. Most high resolution models show another line of showers crossing the area between 5 and 10 PM this evening, which is likely to again bring sporadic IFR conditions. Otherwise, most models (70%) show largely VFR conditions overnight, though there is slight potential for low coastal fog and clouds. VFR conditions are most likely Friday with showers over the interior but less likely near the coast. /JHW && .MARINE...Strong north winds persist in all waters this afternoon with some gale conditions focused in the northern outer waters. Short period seas remain very steep up to 12 feet. North winds will begin to weaken and pull further offshore into Thursday. Just as short period seas begin to fall, however, a unusually long period northwest swell will build up to around 7 feet. Such a swell is unusual for May and will brining at least a moderate risk of sneaker waves to area beaches. Otherwise, Winds will be mostly calm by Thursday afternoon alongside falling short period seas. Moderate north winds will begin to return to all waters Friday and into the weekend. Some marginal gale conditions are possible by Saturday. /JHW && .BEACH HAZARDS...Shorter period seas and winds will calm Wednesday evening into Thursday. At the same time, an unusually long period northwest swell will build Wednesday evening and through the day on Thursday. The forerunners of this swell will begin to build in at just couple feet around 24 seconds. The swell will peak Thursday around 8 feet at 16 seconds. Though falling short period waves will somewhat mask the swell, there will be a moderate risk of sneaker waves on area beaches. The greatest risk will be in areas of mostly calm winds on beaches that are exposed to the northwest. /JHW && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for CAZ101- 103-104-109. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ450-455. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ470. Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

644 FXUS66 KMTR 280005 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 505 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1215 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026 - Cooler, unsettled weather conditions continue through Thursday - Warming and drying trend Friday and beyond && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1215 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026 (This evening through Thursday) We have already seen showers and an isolated thunderstorm develop late this morning across the Eastern Santa Clara Hills and in the Mountains of San Benito County. As daytime heating continues, we are expecting convection to fire up in the East Bay Hills, Eastern Santa Clara Hills, the Santa Cruz Mountains and the Central Coast (County of Monterey/San Benito) this afternoon and evening. This is as the atmosphere becomes more unstable with CAPE values between 100-400 J/kg. However, vertical wind profiles don`t favor organized convection, with little to no 0-6km wind shear. Therefore, probabilities for thunderstorms remain less than 10% through the afternoon and early evening. Any stronger cell (shower and/or thunderstorm) that develops over any one given location has the potential to produce 0.25"-0.50" per hour of rainfall. The mid/upper level low will begin to retrograde back over the Pacific tonight into early Thursday morning and begin to pull in PWAT values of around 1.00". This will increase rain chances offshore late tonight and then will move onshore along the Central Coast through Thursday morning. However, with the loss of daytime heating, the thunderstorm threat will lessen. Forecast rainfall amounts have increased in the Santa Cruz Mountains and Santa Lucia Range now having a greater than 60% probability of seeing more than 0.25" through Thursday afternoon (this would include rainfall from today). These probabilities of seeing greater than 1.00" (40%-75%) remain confined to the Santa Lucia Range. Conditions begin to dry out from north to south during the day Thursday as the mid/upper level low shifts further inland. However, rain showers look to linger over the Central Coast through the early evening. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1215 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026 (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Cannot rule out rain showers to linger across the North Bay late Thursday night into early Friday morning as deeper moisture (PWAT values approaching 1.00") move across this region. In wake of the exiting trough, a warming and drying trend will kick off by Friday afternoon with temperatures gradually returning to near average this weekend as zonal flow develops over the region. Temperatures are currently forecast to warm above seasonal averages by Sunday and into the middle of the upcoming week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 453 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed across the Bay Area and interior Central Coast. Have added VCTS to the APC TAF but may need to be added in to LVK and SJC as well. Breezy onshore winds continue this afternoon before winds diminish overnight. Widespread rain returns by early tomorrow morning and continues through much of the TAF period. Cannot rule out isolated thunderstorms again tomorrow afternoon/evening but confidence is too low to include in TAFs at this time. Vicinity of SFO...Gusty onshore winds diminish by late evening/overnight with breezy conditions expected again tomorrow afternoon/evening. MVFR CIGs are possible overnight but confidence is low to moderate. Rain chances increase as early as 06Z with more widespread rain arriving closer to 10Z. Rain chances decrease by the afternoon with a low potential for isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... MVFR CIGs and gusty onshore winds through this evening. Overcast conditions continue through late tomorrow morning with winds to strengthen again during the afternoon and evening. Rain chances increase around 03 to 06Z with more widespread rain arriving around 10Z. Rain continues through the end of the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1005 AM PDT Wed May 27 2026 Northwesterly winds continue to diminish through today and overnight into widespread gentle to moderate breezes over the outer and inner waters. Wind gusts also become more moderate, with the outer northern waters experiencing locally strong gusts through Thursday morning. Rough seas with heights of 11-16 ft continue to abate through today and become more moderate (5-9 ft) by Friday morning. Another round of strong to near-gale force winds are expected to develop over the weekend with building rough seas again. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...RGass LONG TERM....RGass AVIATION...Kennedy MARINE...Navarrete Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

216 FXUS66 KOTX 272339 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 439 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and thunderstorms will impact the region at times Wednesday through Friday. The threat for thunderstorms will be localized to mainly the Idaho Panhandle Wednesday then more widespread Thursday and Friday. A few storms may be strong to severe with hail, gusty outflow winds, and heavy downpours. - Very warm Wednesday and Thursday with minor to moderate HeatRisk. Heat related impacts possible to those that are sensitive to the heat especially to those without adequate cooling and/or hydration. - Gusty winds through the Cascade gaps into the Wenatchee Area, Waterville Plateau, and Moses Lake Area Friday afternoon and evening with a 40-50% chance for gusts of greater than 40 mph. && .SYNOPSIS... The threat for showers and thunderstorms retreats to the lower Idaho Panhandle Wednesday then becomes widespread on Thursday into Friday. Thursday will be warm with temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s. Breezy to windy conditions on Friday especially through the Cascade gaps. The weekend will be drier and occasionally breezy. && .DISCUSSION... ...Scattered Severe Thunderstorms Possible across the Inland Northwest Late Thursday Afternoon and Thursday Evening... The next few days will bring opportunities for showers and thunderstorms for the Inland Northwest as an upper level low over California will slowly drift southward and eventually eastward by Friday. -Wednesday: The first chance for thunderstorms will be this evening over far southeast Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle around 5 to 11 PM. The best forcing for convection this evening with be displaced further south in central and southern Idaho and eastern Oregon in closer proximity to the upper level jet. Nonetheless with deep southeast flow, cells will drift north-northwest towards the area this evening. There is a small chance (10-20%) of cells or decaying outflows impacting rural southern Asotin county, Lewis County, and Shoshone county. Main hazards will be gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph and hail size up to half an inch. -Thursday: Thunderstorm chances Thursday look far more robust compared to today as a more well defined shortwave will pivot from northeastern Nevada in the late morning towards northeast Oregon and central Idaho in the evening. Boundary layer moisture will be plentiful with dewpoints in the 50s to perhaps even low 60s. Some models are very aggressive with surface dewpoints in southeast Washington and the southern Idaho Panhandle in the mid 60s. I am skeptical of dewpoints in the 60s given efficient mixing under sunny skies most of the morning and into the early afternoon. With mid level flow coming from the intermountain west, this will provide an unusual setup for steep lapse rates around 9-9.5 C/km in the 750-600 mb layer. Combining these factors, there will be an anomalously unstable airmass in place with surface based CAPE around 1000-2500 J/kg in much of the area. Deep layer (0-6 km) bulk shear around 30- 40 knots will be sufficient to sustain deep convection that develops in eastern Oregon and central Idaho in the late morning and early afternoon as it moves north-northwest towards the region. Most of the morning models suggest isolated cell development to the south and congealing into multiple lines of thunderstorms. Downdraft CAPE values around 1000-1800 J/kg will support very strong gusts around 40-60 mph, perhaps isolated pockets of 60-80 mph in the Columbia Basin. There will be a marginal severe hail threat as well with max hail size expected to be around an inch. As for peak timing of thunderstorms, generally expect 2-11 PM south of I-90 and around 4 PM-1 AM north of I-90. There will be a small threat of flash flooding on recent burn scars and urban areas with these thunderstorms. Afternoon temperatures tomorrow are forecasted to be well above average in the mid 80s to mid 90s posing a minor to moderate risk of heat related illnesses. -Friday: As the low starts to finally eject into southern Nevada Friday, the thunderstorm chances will shift into northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Synoptic forcing Friday looks weaker but still aided by a developing southerly 80-100 kt upper level jet in north central Washington and southern British Columbia. Forecast instability and deep layer shear is still fairly impressive around 750-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt respectively. Stronger cells are once again possible with outflow gusts around 40-50 mph especially near the Montana border in the late afternoon. Synoptic winds increase to around 15-25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph in the Cascade gaps Friday, but fire danger will be lower with humidities in the 30s and with any rain that falls Thursday. Saturday through Wednesday: The weekend will be fairly cool with temperatures in the 60s and 70s with additional low chances (10-30%) for showers in eastern Washington and north Idaho. A warming trend will commence early next week as ensembles are in generally good agreement of a weaker mid level ridge developing. High temperatures would return to normal by Monday with temps in the upper 60s to low 80s. By Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 70s to upper 80s, around 7-10 degrees above average. /DB && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: Thunderstorms over southern ID Panhandle are expected to weaken this evening prior to reaching KLWS but will be monitoring the potential for gusty outflow winds with brief gusts of 20-30 kts potentially impacting KLWS between 02z-05z. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected for all TAF sites through 00z Friday. Although a moist boundary layer and clearing skies may allow patchy fog to develop overnight in the ID Panhandle and NE WA valleys but is not expected to impact KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. A heads up for strong to severe thunderstorms that will threaten all TAF sites late Thursday afternoon into the evening, which will be closely examined with the 06z TAF issuance. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions for all TAF sites through 00z Sunday. There is a 10% chance of KLWS being impacted by a shower or thunderstorm between 01z-05z this evening. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 52 88 55 75 46 65 / 0 0 70 20 20 20 Coeur d`Alene 54 89 57 73 48 62 / 0 10 80 20 20 20 Pullman 49 83 51 68 43 59 / 10 10 70 10 10 20 Lewiston 55 87 57 76 51 66 / 10 20 60 40 20 20 Colville 48 92 50 77 43 69 / 0 0 80 60 60 30 Sandpoint 53 90 55 74 47 62 / 0 10 80 40 30 30 Kellogg 54 92 56 74 48 60 / 10 20 70 30 30 30 Moses Lake 53 93 55 78 43 72 / 0 0 70 20 0 0 Wenatchee 61 91 62 73 48 70 / 0 0 70 50 0 0 Omak 57 93 59 78 48 74 / 0 0 60 80 20 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

964 FXUS66 KPDT 272351 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 451 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026 .Updated Aviation Discussion. .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances of thunderstorms for Central Oregon Today with more widespread coverage on Thursday. Hail and gusty winds are possible embedded in these storms. - Minor heat risk for Today, Moderate heat risk on Thursday. - Breezy to windy conditions develop on Friday. && .DISCUSSION... An upper low intermediate south of the forecast area and a weak ridging to the north will influence sensible weather over the next 2 to 3 days across the PDT forecast area. HeatRisk will increase from Today to Tomorrow forming widespread limited risk (level 1) to Level 2 in the the lower elevation valleys and and Columbia basin as high temperatures climb into the upper 80s and low 90s through the Columbia Basin and Yakima Valley. Afternoon thunderstorms across central Oregon a cross the Ochoco John Day Basin and southern Blues are possible by late afternoon and early evening and will largely diurnally driven (weakening after sunset). For Thursday, steep mid level lapse rates in excess of 8.5 deg C/km will result from cooling air aloft and surface heating creating water loaded inverted v soundings, with enough mid level flows to create wind shear capable of long sustained TSRA/CB and down burst wind threat. A glance across the HREF CAMs vary temporally; initiating and spreading northeast over the Blue Mountains between 22z and 01z for the initial broken line of storms, which may linger farther north into the Columbia Basin as the evening progresses given ample PWATS (1.00"+) and mean CAPE (1000-1500 J/kg). Much of the forecast area has been upgraded from 5% chances for severe weather from a point to 15% chances for Thursday afternoon (slight risk). Friday looks windy through the Kittitas valley, Simcoe Highlands, Eastern Columbia River Gorge and the Columbia basin of Oregon, as the pressure gradients increase behind a cold front associated with the eastward propagating upper low. NBM mean wind gusts average 40 to 49 knots in these areas, indicating high end wind advisory criteria. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... VFR conditions currently across all sites, which will stay the course through the period. Breezy 20-30kt wind gusts are occurring for KRDM/KBDN and persist through the evening, subsiding later tonight. These terminals will experience a potential for isolated thunderstorms this evening. Any thunderstorms that develop will include breezy and erratic winds, brief hail, and periods of heavy rainfall. All remaining terminals will stay dry with winds of 10kts or less. 75 && .HYDROLOGY... A glance at the PWATs for Thursday afternoon indicate about 1.00 inch average through the Blue Mt foothills and Lower Columbia Basin, which is in the 75th to 99th percentile for late May compared to climatology. At about 0.8 PWAT on average along the eastern Cascades Crest, are also elevate at around the 75th percentile. A marginal excessive rainfall outlook is highlighted across the Eastern Slopes of the Cascades, as well as into the adjacent Washington Valleys into Central Oregon. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 50 85 51 70 / 0 10 50 10 ALW 56 86 58 73 / 0 20 50 10 PSC 53 92 55 78 / 0 0 50 10 YKM 56 93 56 75 / 0 10 70 40 HRI 52 88 54 72 / 0 0 60 20 ELN 54 89 53 66 / 0 10 70 50 RDM 44 80 42 62 / 30 80 90 40 LGD 48 85 49 70 / 20 30 60 40 GCD 43 81 44 68 / 40 60 50 60 DLS 59 90 56 69 / 0 10 90 20 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...95 AVIATION...75 HYDROLOGY...99

100 FXUS65 KREV 271917 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1217 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers and thunderstorms will persist through Friday and possibly Saturday along with cooler than normal temperatures. * Snowfall is likely in the Sierra and mountains in Nevada above 7000 feet today and tomorrow. * Temperatures will warm back to near or above normal next week. && .DISCUSSION... * Cold upper low meandering over California and Nevada will keep showers and t-storms in the forecast through Friday and possibly Saturday, depending on the speed that the low moves out this weekend. In many past years, this cool and wet pattern has coincided with the Memorial Day weekend. This year, it was a close call. * While the afternoons will have the most widespread showers and isolated t-storms due to destabilization, with the various waves rotating around the upper low, overnight and morning showers are likely. For example: HREF showing 70%+ odds of at least 0.1" rainfall between 6 AM and Noon Thursday from Hawthorne to Reno/Tahoe. Regarding t-storms, today and tomorrow have the best chances for stronger cells per SPC outlook and HREF. Even some updraft helicity tracks showing up in HREF over Pershing, N Washoe, and Modoc Counties each day - an indication more organized storms and increased severe potential. Even more impressive tomorrow further north over Oregon. * Rain-snow lines will vary between 6000-8000` through Friday based on the NBM guidance. With the coolest days being today and tomorrow, that`s when we`ll have the best chances for mountain snowfall. NBM showing 60-80% chances for at least 1" new snow in the Sierra between Tahoe and Mammoth today and tomorrow, with up to 40% chance of 4" especially above 7000`. So any mountain roads that are open above 7000` could have travel impacts due to snow, with some of that coming down in higher intensity snow/pellet showers. Any nighttime snow even on well-travel roads like I-80 could result in slick conditions. * The trend has been for a slower exit of the upper low, with NBM now showing showers possible Saturday, which also keeps the warm-up more gradual with 80s holding off until Sunday or even Monday in lower elevations. Even with cooler than normal temps through the weekend, the odds of hard freezes in lower valleys and urban areas appear limited due mainly to cloud cover. Even at a typical cold spot like Minden, the NBM is only showing about 20% chance of sub-freezing temps Thursday and Friday mornings. * Increasing confidence in a solid warm up next week to typical or above normal temperatures, especially the second half of the week. Can`t rule out isolated showers or even t-storms over the higher terrain each day with that warmth. NBM t-storm POPs running 10-20% each day. -Chris && .AVIATION... * High chances (80%+) for MVFR to IFR rain showers across the region through Thursday, including overnight and early morning periods. Mountain obscuration is also expected. * Thunderstorms are also expected (20-40% chances) - today mainly from WMC/LOL to AAT and tomorrow from AAT-SVE-TVL-MMH over the Sierra. Main threats are erratic outflows to 40 knots, lightning, small hail, and heavy rains. * Rain-snow lines varying between 6000-8000`, so snow showers can`t be ruled out at mountain airfields like TRK/TVL and MMH. NBM showing anywhere from 10-25% chances for 0.1 to 1" snowfall at these sites today and/or tomorrow. -Chris && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

236 FXUS66 KSTO 271903 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1203 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... -Shower and isolated thunderstorm chances today through tomorrow, with the highest chances across the mountains and north of I-80. -Chances for light, high elevation mountain snow along the Sierra through tomorrow morning. Minor accumulations. -Trend toward drier and warmer weather end of the weekend into early next week, with Moderate HeatRisk potential. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today through Saturday... Upper level low continues to affect conditions across CA today and through the early weekend. Current satellite we can see the low pressure centered over the Great Basin, with northerly flow aloft over CA. Scattered to broken clouds through the forecast area, with showers and thunderstorms around Shasta county currently. We expect further shower and isolated thunderstorm development through the Sierra, foothills, and Valley this afternoon and continuing through the evening. Best chances for thunderstorms will be in the mountains and foothills, but due to the proximity of surface low, higher sfc vorticity, instability and moisture thunderstorms will also be possible in the Valley. A few storms may be on the stronger side, with brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. Near Shasta county, there will be a slight chance (less than 20 percent) of a convergence zone to form bringing training thunderstorms at times. We will continue to monitor conditions throughout the day. Temperatures will continue to be below average today and through the early part of the weekend. Chances for isolated thunderstorms and showers again tomorrow afternoon/evening, with lingering chances in the mountains and foothills Friday and Saturday. A few storms may be on the stronger side Thursday, with the potential for gusty winds, brief heavy rain, and small hail. ...Sunday and onward... The upper level low pressure system moves out of the Great Basin end of the weekend and next week, bringing drier and warmer conditions to the area. Temperatures will begin to reach back into the 90s by early next week, with the potential for Moderate HeatRisk for the Valley both Monday and Tuesday. RH values are trending lower next week, but winds are remaining on the lighter side at this moment. As we move through the end of the week we will start to see a better picture of the pattern aloft and any potential for increased winds and fire weather concerns for next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions, with periods of MVFR is expected this afternoon as showers and thunderstorms move through the region. Best chances for showers and storms is around the Sacramento sites toward RBL and RDD. MVFR conditions post 01-03z for Sacramento sites, RDD, and RBL. Conditions should begin to dry out around 06-07z through the end of the TAF period, with improving ceilings toward VFR. In and around thunderstorms winds may become erratic at times. Otherwise, winds will be on the lighter side. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

517 FXUS65 KMSO 271947 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 147 PM MDT Wed May 27 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Juicy, scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening will produce localized lightning, downpours, small hail, and erratic outflow winds up to 45 mph. - A Pacific front Friday brings heavy rainfall potential to north- central Idaho, focusing from the US-95 corridor through the Camas Prairie and northeastward along Highway 12. - Widespread weekend rainfall across western Montana, elevating risks for hydrologic responses and rockfalls especially near and along the Continental Divide. Abundant boundary layer moisture (dewpoints in the mid-to-upper 50s) combined with afternoon heating will trigger pulse thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Stubborn low-level clouds and stratus have slightly delayed heating across the Mission and Flathead valleys and points west, but this cloud cover is now steadily eroding. Once full insolation is realized, rapid cellular development will initiate off the terrain and drift slowly from southeast-to-northwest though about 10pm local time tonight. Stronger cells will carry localized threats of lightning, small hail, heavy downpours and strong winds. Storm coverage diminishes for Thursday afternoon`s period of convective instability shifting primarily north of I-90. We are still monitoring elevated fire weather concerns for Thursday afternoon in southwest Montana (primarily south of Dillon) due to gusty winds and relative humidities likely dropping into the teens. A landfalling Pacific trough moves inland for Friday, focusing a band of heavy rain primarily across north-central Idaho along the US-12 and 95 corridors and secondarily into western Montana. This trough will kick the Great Basin closed low northeastward into the Yellowstone region by Saturday. Strong model agreement places central and western Montana under a robust deformation zone within the northwest quadrant of the parent low, tapping into a deep southeasterly moisture plume. Expect prolonged, efficient rainfall Saturday morning through Sunday. Because recent and progged rains have already begun to prime soils, and the ongoing high-elevation snowmelt regime, this weekend system introduces concerns for elevated stream and river responses as well as risks for rockfall in canyon terrain. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across all of western Montana this weekend. Snow levels will drop from above 10,000 feet down to near 6,000 feet by Sunday morning along the Divide. && .AVIATION...Moist southerly flow continues across the Northern Rockies ahead of a cut-off low meandering around central California. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to initiate across southern Idaho County eastward into southwest Montana and gradually work northwestward into this evening but overall less coverage compared to yesterday (Tuesday). Gusty winds to 40 kts and hail are possible with the stronger thunderstorms. Patchy fog/stratus may develop on Thursday morning where rain occurs today but once again much less coverage compared to the low clouds experienced this morning. Another round of afternoon showers and thunderstorms is expected on Thursday but focused more across northwest Montana. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

417 FXUS65 KBOI 280018 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 618 PM MDT Wed May 27 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong thunderstorms capable of wind gusts to 60 mph, blowing dust, small hail, and brief heavy rain possible today, with the highest potential across southeast Oregon and west-central Idaho mountains. - Breezy east-southeast winds today with gusts 30 to 40 mph across southeast Oregon and Idaho south of Boise. - Additional showers and thunderstorms and periods of gusty winds Thursday through Sunday. - Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds 40-60 mph and blowing dust, heavy rain, and hail through the week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Issued 237 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2026 Active weather will continue through the end of the week as a closed upper low over the western Great Basin brings rounds of showers and thunderstorms to our area. Scattered thunderstorms are forming over the central ID mountains and southeast OR along the NV border this afternoon. Thunderstorms this afternoon are capable of wind gusts to 60 mph, blowing dust, small hail, and brief heavy rain as the primary hazards. The highest chance for thunderstorms (30-50%) will be across southeast Oregon and the west central ID mountains. Conditions should improve after sunset. Conditions Thursday will be similar to today as the low remains nearly stationary. Strong thunderstorms will once again be possible, with the highest potential remaining across southeast Oregon and west-central Idaho. Temperatures will be similar with breezy southerly winds gusting to 20-35 mph. On Friday, the upper low will start to lift north as an upper trough approaches the Pacific Northwest. Showers and thunderstorms will increase across the area as the low approaches with localized heavy rain possible from storms. Temperatures will cool by 5-10 degrees, and winds outside of thunderstorms will not be as breezy as previous days. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued 237 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2026 The upper low sitting over the Great Basin will merge with an incoming Pacific longwave trough on Saturday. This merged system will steer northeastward and continue showers/thunderstorms mainly over higher terrain areas of southwest/west-central ID on Saturday. Uncertainty remains over the track and strength of another shortwave trough arriving to the area on Sunday. For now, will maintain a 20-40% chance of showers/ thunderstorms over the higher terrain in SW Idaho. A drying trend will set in Monday through Wednesday of next week, as a ridge builds in over the northwest region. Temperatures will trend upward throughout the long-term period, reaching near normal come Sunday before increasing to 10-15 degrees above normal come Wednesday. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 556 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2026 Generally VFR. Scattered showers and thunderstorms tonight through Thurs/06Z and again tomorrow after Thurs/20Z, with outflow gusts up to 55 kt, brief heavy rain, and hail in the strongest storms. Precipitation ending overnight, except for a 30% chance of overnight showers and thunderstorms near KBNO. Surface winds outside of storms: NW-SE 10-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt this evening, tapering off to variable less than 10 kt overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: E-SE 20-35 kt. KBOI...VFR. Isolated showers with a 30% chance of thunder tomorrow afternoon. Storms capable of outflows of 40-50 kt, small hail, and brief heavy rain. Surface winds outside of storms: S-SE 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt, variable less than 6 kt overnight, then SE 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt by late morning. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SA SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....JY

698 FXUS65 KLKN 272036 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 136 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Strong, gusty southeast to south winds in Eastern Nevada today * Periods of valley rain and mountain snow through Friday * A few strong thunderstorms possible this afternoon * Much cooler today && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A low pressure center is sitting over western Nevada and is expected to stay there through the next several days. Strong winds are currently ongoing in eastern Nevada as a result of this low and a wind advisory remains in effect through late this evening. The outer bands of this system are expected to bring repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area through the next several days with the heaviest precipitation totals in the western half of the area. Some of this precipitation is expected to fall as snow in higher elevations, with snow levels dropping to around 7000 feet some nights this week. Daytime temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s while the low persists, with overnight lows in the 30s and low 40s. A few of the coldest valleys will even drop into the upper 20s. The low is expected to become mobile again late in the day Friday, making its exit to the north and east. Northwest to zonal flow will take its place, allowing dry and warming conditions to develop, with highs reaching the upper 70s/low 80s by Tuesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence regarding the stalled low and its impacts and timing. Moderate confidence in precipitation totals as they continue to change from slight variances in the positioning of the low. Moderate confidence regarding timing of the low exit and the onset of northwest or zonal flow. No changes were made to base NBM output with this forecast. && .AVIATION...Prevailing VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the next 24 hours. Showers and thunderstorms are expected around KWMC/KBAM/KTPH and any direct impacts would result in short lived degraded visibility and ceilings, as well as variable strong winds. Prevailing daytime gusty winds up to 30KT are expected at KWMC/KBAM/KEKO/KENV and up to 40KT at KELY. && .FIRE WEATHER...Closed low pressure system centered over western Nevada will continue to give periods of precipitation and mountain snow over the western fire zones this afternoon until the evening. Strong gusty southerly winds affecting the eastern fire zones with drier conditions until the evening with a Wind Advisory until 8 pm tonight. A few strong thunderstorms are possible until the evening hours. Tomorrow, breezy winds over the eastern zones again with lower chances for precipitation and mountain snow during the day with higher RH values above thresholds. Overnight into Friday morning, precipitation and mountain snow will move eastward and affect all fire zones. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ031-033>035-039. && $$ DISCUSSION...94 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...97