352 FXUS66 KSEW 151806 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 1038 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A very cool upper level trough will move over Western Washington today and remain over the area through Saturday night. Upper level ridge building offshore Sunday with Western Washington on the backside of the ridge through the middle of next week. && .UPDATE...A broad area of precipitation is making its way across western Washington late this morning. Destabilization could lead to thunderstorm activity today with at least a 15-20% chance of thunder area wide, meanwhile the best chances (25-35%) will be along the coast and into the north interior. Lightning, small hail, and brief heavy downpours will be the primary hazards. A Winter Weather Advisory was added for the mountains of western Washington above 4000 feet. This was put out mainly as a heads up for those with outdoor recreation plans today through Saturday night. Snow showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Road travel conditions could see minor temporary impacts, but generally ground temperatures will be warm enough to limit road accumulation. Widespread chances for thunder exist through Saturday, though the focus of the convective potential will shift into the central Puget Sound south through SW Washington (peaking in the 25-35% range). -Wolcott && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy skies over Western Washington early this morning. Doppler radar has widely scattered showers mainly over the northern portion of the area. Temperatures at 2 am/09z were in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Main story for the next two days is the very cool upper level trough over Western Washington. The trough will move over the area today and remain into Saturday night. Temperatures aloft very cold for this time of year with 500 mb temperatures dropping below -30C tonight into Saturday. Even with plenty of cloud cover and little daytime heating the very cold air aloft will create unstable conditions especially this afternoon through Saturday. Lifted indexes in the plus 2 to minus 2 range, convective temperatures both this afternoon and Saturday afternoon below the predicted high temperatures, lapse rates with the very cold air aloft in the plus 7 to 8C/km. All this adds up to showers through Saturday with a chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Snow levels, already low near 4000 feet this morning, lowering to 3000 to 3500 feet tonight and Saturday. Could see a couple of inches of snow at the summit of Stevens Pass while higher up Paradise on Mount Rainier looking at 4 to 8 inches of new snow the next two days. Highs in the lower to mid 50s today and mid to upper 50s Saturday. Highs today will only be a couple of degrees warmer than record low maximums. Lows tonight in the upper 30s to mid 40s. Upper level trough weakening Saturday night and moving out of the area Sunday. Convective activity coming to an end Saturday evening. A few breaks in the clouds cover will allow temperatures to drop into the mid 30s in the colder locations Sunday morning. Lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s for the remainder of the area. Upper level ridge building offshore Sunday. Plenty of low level moisture over Western Washington combined with light flow in the lower levels will make it hard for the sun to break through especially in the morning. As the marine layer thins in the afternoon some sunshine will get highs into the upper 50s to mid 60s. Felton && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Models in good agreement with the upper level ridge remaining in place at least through Tuesday. Differences in the model solutions beginning Wednesday with some solutions moving the ridge inland over Western Washington while other solutions keep the ridge axis offshore. Either scenario keeps the weather dry over the area. The ridge axis moving overhead would result in a little warmer days. For now with the uncertainty will keep highs just a couple of degrees above normal Wednesday and Thursday, in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Highs Monday and Tuesday in the 60s. Lows in the 40s through the period. && .AVIATION... W/SW flow aloft through tonight, veering to the NW Saturday morning. At low levels, S winds for all but the coast, where winds are W. Speeds ranging 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. VFR conditions with areas of MVFR conditions with showers, with some recovery after 22Z allowing more widespread low-end VFR, except for those locations with lingering precipitation. KSEA...MVFR conditions with light rain. Some improvement expected during the afternoon. Southwesterly winds throughout the TAF period with speeds 8-12 kts this morning, becoming 10-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts this afternoon and early evening before easing tonight. For Saturday, HiRes ensembles consistently showing the development of a PSCZ Saturday afternoon with a 40-50% chance of northerly winds at the terminal by 3pm, and higher odds by 5-6PM. In addition, there is 15 to 20% chance of lightning with the convergence zone through the same period. && .MARINE... Onshore flow will continue over the weekend which will allow for daily pushes through the Strait of Juan De Fuca. However, given the more southwesterly flow of winds...they may not see such a strong push today...that remains on track for Saturday though. These southwesterly winds however do look to trigger advisory level winds for the Puget Sound for much of the day today before easing by this evening. As such, an SCA has gone out with the morning forecast package. Near-shore seas will steadily increase today, likely topping out at 7 to 9 ft. The outer waters however will see more significant increases, reaching 9 to 12 ft late tonight and persisting throughout much of Saturday. As such, have issued an SCA this morning to cover this high seas threat. Seas might be slow to regress, but they are expected to slowly ease back down to 7 to 9 ft Sunday morning. 18 && .HYDROLOGY... The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as needed. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 AM PDT Sunday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County- Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-Olympics. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for Puget Sound and Hood Canal. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$

789 FXUS66 KPQR 151810 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1110 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 Updated aviation discussion. && .SYNOPSIS...Showers return this morning to the northern coast, spreading inland this afternoon as a weak frontal system moves across the area. Low pressure over western Washington and upper level troughing will maintain showers with seasonably cool temperatures through Saturday, as well as a 10-20% chance of afternoon thunderstorms, generally north of Salem. Cooler temps will also bring snow levels down to 3500-4000 ft, allowing for light snow along the Cascade passes tonight through Saturday night. Drier and warmer weather returns Sunday through next week as high pressure re- builds. && .DISCUSSION...Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning shows the leading edge of an upper level jet stream over the northern Pacific pushing toward the PacNW. This will push another relatively weak frontal system across the area, with the highest chances for precipitation along the coast and northern portions of the forecast area through this evening. This system will also bring breezy southwesterly winds with gusts up to 25 mph across the area later this afternoon. Broad upper level troughing dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska will slide across the region tonight cooling temperatures aloft, with ensembles suggesting 850 mb temps dropping down to around -2 C. This will allow snow levels to fall to around 3500-4000 ft (lowest across the SW Washington Cascades). Weak surface low pressure will linger near the Puget Sound tonight through Saturday while shortwave disturbances maintain shower activity overnight through at least Saturday afternoon. Orographics of the Coast Range and Cascades will likely enhance precipitation as west to northwesterly flow persists. This may lead to some accumulating snow, especially at higher elevations. Latest guidance suggests there is anywhere from a 20-60% chance of exceeding 6 inches of snow (in a 24-hr period) at Cascade passes, highest near Government Camp. If planning on traveling to the Cascades, make sure to check the latest forecast, refer to ODOT/WSDOT for the latest road conditions, and pack an emergency supply kit. Considering many of the forest roads are free of snow from the early melt-out and access to unmaintained roads is growing, the lower snow levels may catch people off guard if they are unprepared for cold, wet, and even snowy conditions. While rainfall amounts in the lowlands are expected to be light and non-impactful, there is also a 15-20% chance for short-lived thunderstorms Saturday afternoon, mainly from Lincoln City/Salem northward. Colder air aloft filtering in from the passing trough will gradually increase atmospheric instability, especially in the afternoon, though only about 100-300 J/kg of skinny CAPE. Any thunderstorms that do develop may produce lightning, brief heavy downpours, small hail, and erratic winds. After seasonably cool temperatures today and Saturday, expect a warming trend to return Sunday through early next week. As the upper level trough shifts east, expect high pressure to return back over the region. Ensemble guidance is is general agreement that upper level ridging builds into the NE Pacific. But, there remains uncertainty with how far east the ridge progresses toward the PacNW. The farther east the ridge does shift over the Pacific NW, temperatures are more likely to see higher end amounts, mid to upper 70s by the middle of next week. If the region stays under more northwesterly flow aloft, afternoon temps would be more likely to remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The majority of ensemble guidance does return to mostly dry conditions for next week. /DH && .AVIATION...Predominately VFR conditions continue as shower activity increases over the forecast area. Another front is on its way through northern OR with chances for MVFR CIGs increasing through the afternoon. Rain is expected to spread south and east through the day, with chances for MVFR conditions developing at KONP and KAST increasing to around 30-50% by 21z. Chances for MVFR conditions inland generally remain around 30% or less after 00z Saturday, highest near KPDX/KTTD and northward. Southwesterly winds are also expected to increase this afternoon, with gusts up to 25 kt at the coast and to around 20 kt inland. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the period, though chances for MVFR increase this afternoon into this evening to around 20-30% as rain showers increase across the area. Southwest winds are expected to increase to around 9-13 kt with gusts up to 20 kt later this afternoon. -19/DH && .MARINE...Onshore winds continue today into the weekend as a weak frontal passage will bring another round of elevated westerly winds with gusts up to 25 kt later this afternoon. A mid-period west-northwesterly swell will also help build seas to around 10 to 12 ft tonight into Saturday morning. Therefore, Small Craft Advisories remain in effect this afternoon through late Saturday. Additionally, very strong ebb currents across the Columbia River Bar early Friday and Saturday mornings will shorten the wave period and result in steeper seas. Northerly to northwesterly winds return Sunday into early next week while seas ease to around 4 to 8 ft as high pressure builds offshore. Strong currents during morning ebb tides will continue daily through Thursday, potentially yielding steep and hazardous seas for small craft crossing area bars through much of the week. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ210-251-271- 272. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Saturday to 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ252-253-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

248 FXUS66 KMFR 151752 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1052 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 .DISCUSSION...Updated aviation and marine discussions. && .AVIATION...15/18Z TAFs...VFR prevails most areas late this morning. Satellite imagery is showing some broken ceilings at or around 5000 feet over Coos and Douglas counties. Expect gusty winds (20-30 kt) this afternoon with increasing high clouds. Another disturbance with a deep marine push will move in tonight. This will cause areas of light rain/drizzle along the coast and over to the Cascades along with a mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings. Some higher terrain will become obscured. Most precip will fizzle south of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide, but there could be a little light rain or drizzle up against the terrain of the Siskiyous due to the increased depth of the marine layer. With snow levels dropping to around 4000 feet by Saturday morning, some light snow may mix in as well down to that elevation. Onshore flow will keep a mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings near and west/north of the Cascades/Siskiyous into Saturday afternoon with mainly VFR south of there. With low pressure sliding southward over the area Saturday night into Sunday morning, some cloud cover and light precip will linger, primarily around the mountains. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 1050 AM PDT Friday, May 15, 2026...Gusty north to northwest winds and steep seas are expected for areas from Gold Beach southward through this evening. Steep seas expand northward to all areas by Saturday as an increasing swell builds into the waters. North winds will also strengthen late Saturday. Strongest winds and highest seas are expected from Gold Beach southward. Multiple northwest swell trains will move through area waters into early next week with persistent gusty north winds. This will likely maintain steep seas for much of the area through mid next week. -Spilde && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 320 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026/ SHORT TERM... KEY MESSAGES... * Seasonable temperatures are expected today with breezy to gusty afternoons/evening winds. * Disturbances moving through the region bringing cooler temperatures and bring enhanced west to northwest afternoon winds along with nightly marine pushes along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin through the weekend. * Light rain possible along the coast and north of the Rogue- Umpqua Divide on Saturday. * Localized frost is possible Saturday night and Sunday night in some west side valley, with highest chances in the the Illinois and Applegate valleys, and portions of the lower Klamath River Valley in western-central Siskiyou. Near and below freezing temperatures likely in the Scott and Shasta Valleys and east of the Cascades. As a weak front moved inland, a marine push of lower to mid clouds has moved into areas from the Cascades west overnight. These clouds are likely break up and clear this afternoon. East side areas and Northern California zones will remain mostly clear. Afternoon temperatures are expected to be near normal with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s across valleys and near 60 along the coast. A weak trough will move into the region from the northwest tonight and Saturday. With this trough, expect chances for light rain along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin tonight and Saturday morning. The snow level Saturday morning is forecast to be around 4000 feet, so don`t be surprised if there happen to be some wet snow flakes near and north of Union Creek Saturday morning. Overall, precipitation is expected to be light. There is a slight chance (10-20%) for light precipitation south of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide in Jackson and Josephine counties. This system will also bring cooler temperatures with highs trending around 5-10 degrees below normal. This trough will shift east late Saturday and deepen on Sunday just east of the area, across eastern Oregon, Idaho, northern Nevada and western Montana. Breezy to gusty winds are likely both Saturday and Sunday afternoon/evening as this trough remains over the area or just to the east. Cooler temperatures remain in place on Sunday, trending slightly warmer on Monday. Nighttime lows Saturday night and Sunday night will trend lower. The National Blend of Models and current guidance supports temperatures in the 33-37 range with a chance for patchy frost in portions of the Illinois and Applegate valleys, as well as portions of the lower Klamath River in west- central the lower Klamath River Valley. Outlying areas in the Rogue Valley may also see temperatures briefly lower into the mid 30s during this period. We will continue to monitor this period and evaluate for the potential for a frost advisory. Temperatures will be colder in the Scott and Shasta Valleys (lower 30s) and east of the Cascades (20s to low 30s). LONG TERM...Upper level heights rise next week, so we expect a dry pattern along with a warming trend. Temperatures rise to around normal Monday, then back to above normal levels Tue-Thu. We`ll remain in WNW flow aloft during this time period with weak disturbances pushing by to the north every now and then. This means that while it will turn warmer, no huge heat waves are expected. Marine layer intrusions are likely to continue at the coast during the nights/mornings. AVIATION (12Z TAFs)... Lower to mid clouds have filled inland across southwest Oregon from the Cascades weest. This will bring area of MVFR ceilings this morning and mountain obscuration. Lower and mid clouds will gradually lift and clear in the afternoon. With conditions becoming VFR areawide. Breezy wind speeds are expected in the afternoon hours with increasing high clouds. Lastly, isolated showers will enter the region this evening which may result in MVFR ceilings. These conditions spread into the Umpqua Valley Friday night. MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Friday, May 15, 2026...Gusty north to northwest winds and steep seas are expected for areas from Gold Beach southward today. Steep seas spread to all areas by Saturday as an increasing swell builds into the waters. North winds will also strengthen late Saturday. Strongest winds and highest seas are expected from Gold Beach southward. Multiple northwest swell trains will move through area waters into early next week with persistent gusty north winds. This will likely maintain steep seas for much of the area through mid next week. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

954 FXUS66 KEKA 150745 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1245 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Gusty north winds each afternoon will be the highlight of the forecast through the weekend with otherwise mild and sunny conditions. Winds will weaken as warmer conditions begin early next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... -Strong north winds will build each afternoon this weekend. Strongest winds expected along shore and over higher terrain areas over interior. Peak gusts Today near 30 kts and peak Gusts Saturday and Sunday near 40 kts. -Generally clear skies and dry conditions, even along shore, through early next week. -Slightly cooler conditions into the weekend and warming through next week. && .DISCUSSION... .SHORT TERM...A broad, weak low will swing through the Pacific Northwest. Today and through the weekend, Northwest California is projected to see an influx of moisture and cooler air with the potential for some localized areas of drizzle early each morning, mostly around coastal protected valleys of the King Range and Humboldt Bay. While the trough moves through to the north, a strong ridge of high pressure will continue to build over the Central Pacific this weekend. A pressure gradient will tighten and align along shore into the weekend as high pressure continues to build, but stall, offshore. This will bring unusually strong northwest winds this weekend along the coast and across most higher terrain areas of the interior. North winds will gust near 30 mph in exposed areas by this afternoon with 40 mph gusts by Saturday afternoon. Winds will be stubbornly consistent and widespread in the afternoon, though gusts will most likely stay below advisory criteria with limited potential for impacts or damage. The wind will pull marine influence far inland and keep low levels well mixed, generally limiting high temperatures to the mid 60s and 70s. Coastal conditions will remain cool despite winds keeping skies mostly clear. .LONG TERM...High pressure will begin to push inland Sunday and into early next week. The strongest North winds will shift towards the Sacramento Valley in response while winds will remain breezy near shore on Sunday, the strongest winds will shift to Lake County with gusts over 40 mph at high elevations and along the rim of the Sacramento Valley. At the same time, north winds on Sunday will pull more air from the interior, promoting very dry conditions, especially far from the coast. Winds will begin to weaken early next week as high pressure settles further onshore. Conditions will remain very dry with interior highs gradually approaching the 90s by mid week. Any HeatRisk currently appears minor at most. A building inversion and weaker winds will likely allow a very shallow marine layer to begin reforming onshore, though offshore flow overnight will generally limit the extent of any stratus. There remains essentially no chance of rain or thunderstorms through next week. /JHW&JLW && .AVIATION...In general, VFR conditions will prevail through Northwest California. The exception will be for more wind protected coastal areas, such as around Humboldt Bay where coastal stratus has a chance to develop. If stratus does develop along protected coastal areas, MVFR conditions are anticipated. Any coastal stratus that does develop will dissipate as north winds strengthen into the afternoon. Gusts from 20 to 30 knots can be expected for terminals in Northwest California this afternoon/evening. /JLW && .MARINE...Northerly winds continue to strengthen today across the coastal waters, with the strongest winds south of Cape Mendocino. Strong to near-gale sustained winds for the southern waters, while moderate to strong breezes for the northern waters. Winds will diminish to moderate breezes north of Cape Mendocino tonight as a progressive and dry cold front moves trough. In the wake of the front, strengthening north winds will form across all waters. Gusts up to around 40 kts are likely south of Cape Mendocino today with the tightening pressure gradient near shore. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the southern waters, but now through late Sunday night. While a Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the northern waters through Saturday morning. By Saturday, northerly winds accelerate across all waters with near- gale to gale force gusts across all coastal waters and persist through the weekend. There is a moderate to high confidence (60-90%) for gale force gusts across the northern waters Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night. A Gale Watch is in effect for zones 450 and 470 from Saturday afternoon through late Sunday night. Winds are expected to remain elevated early next week due to the strong pressure gradient. Large, steep wind-driven seas will spread over all zones through the weekend and early next week./ZVS && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ450-470. Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening for PZZ450-470. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ455. Gale Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ455. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

071 FXUS66 KMTR 151726 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1026 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 100 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 - Breezy and gusty winds return Friday into the weekend - Hazardous marine conditions expected Friday into the weekend - Elevated fire weather conditions Friday through Monday across the interior with low humidities and strong gusts - Blustery winds for all beaches Friday into the weekend and hazardous beach conditions for west facing beaches conditions Friday through Monday morning. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 100 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 (Friday through Sunday Night) Zonal flow today with high pressure over the Pacific and upper level troughing sliding into the northern PacNW marking the start of an inside slider pattern. Northwesterly winds will increase throughout the day with gusts up to 35 to 45 mph along the coast, across the higher elevations and ridgelines, and favored gaps and passes. The Salinas Valley will see an increase in winds as well, with gusts up to 25 to 35 mph favoring the northern half of the valley. The forecast highs for Friday will be similar Thursday`s, perhaps a few degrees warmer. Saturday into Sunday, the aforementioned upper level trough digs and deepens into the intermountain west and into then into the Great Basin. This will bring an additional burst of winds, which will have a more north-northwest to northerly component. Peak gusts up to 35 to 45 mph along the coast, across the higher elevations and ridgelines, and favored gaps and passes. Locally higher perhaps close to 50 mph are possible for points at the immediate coast and the highest ridge points. The Salinas Valley will be gusty too, with gusts up to 25 to 45 mph favoring the northern half of the valley. Elsewhere, northerly winds may gust up to 20 to 35 mph. Timing for the strongest winds currently looks to be between late Saturday morning through early Sunday morning, peaking Saturday afternoon through the evening. Northerly winds, means a burst of drier air coming our way leading to elevated fire weather conditions for the interior Bay Area and Central Coast. The pattern looks to shift slightly on Monday as the trough moves eastward, which will continue ease the northerlies throughout the day. By Tuesday, onshore flow returns as troughing continues to travel eastward and high pressure builds in over the Eastern Pacific. Agree with the prior shift`s thinking in that the temperatures may be a bit too warm for Wednesday-Friday. Guidance shows ridging holding over the Pacific, while an upper trough forms southwest of CA. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 100 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 (Monday through Thursday) The pattern looks to shift slightly on Monday as the trough moves eastward, which will continue ease the northerlies throughout the day. By Tuesday, onshore flow returns as troughing continues to travel eastward and high pressure builds in over the Eastern Pacific. Agree with the prior shift`s thinking in that the temperatures may be a bit too warm for Wednesday-Friday. Guidance shows ridging holding over the Pacific, while an upper trough forms southwest of CA. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1025 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 Currently VFR at all terminals with the exception of some mist and haze being observed at HAF and SNS respectively. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period; however, haze will reduce slant range visibilities. Winds will strengthen through the morning, becoming strong and gusty this afternoon and evening with widespread gusts of 25 to 35 knots expected. Vicinity of SFO...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow. High confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Winds will continue to back and strengthen through the morning, becoming strong and gusty this afternoon. Gusts up to 30 knots are likely this afternoon and evening with isolated gusts up to 35 knots possible. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Currently VFR with northwesterly flow at MRY and MVFR with westerly flow and haze at SNS. Aside from haze, high confidence in VFR through the TAF period. Onshore winds will continue to strengthen through the morning, becoming moderate and gusty this afternoon and evening. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 1025 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 Widespread hazardous marine conditions are expected today and through the weekend. Strong to near gale force northerly breezes will increase through the weekend to become near gale force to gale force with widespread severe gale force gusts. Isolated storm force gusts are expected along the coastal jet region of Big Sur. Rough to very rough seas will build as a result. Conditions will slowly begin to improve Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 511 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 Gusty offshore winds are building and strengthen through the weekend, leading to elevated fire concerns. Peak gusts above 30 mph for most areas are expected, with around 40 to 50 mph along the coast, through gaps and passes, and across the ridgelines. Very low daytime humidities of 15-25% will prevail across the interior regions and higher peaks, with reduced overnight humidity recoveries. Strong winds persist into the early part of Monday before diminishing, but humidities will be slow to recover as a modest offshore flow continues into the work week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 250 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for west facing beaches along the Pacific Coast from 3 PM Friday through 9 AM Monday due to strong winds over the marine environment leading to hazardously strong wind waves and overall rough seas. Dangerous swimming, boating, and surfing conditions can be expected. Large breaking waves can overpower swimmers resulting in significant physical injury and increase the risk of drowning. Gusts will stay strong along the immediate coast, causing blowing and drifting sand and increased sea spray. Water rescue attempts may be hampered by reduced visibilities from the sea spray. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the ocean. RGass && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from 3 PM PDT this afternoon through Monday morning for CAZ006-505-509-530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM Saturday to 3 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ506. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Sunday for SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Mry Bay. Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Sunday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0- 10 nm-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0- 10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0- 10 nm. Gale Warning until 9 AM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday evening for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...KR LONG TERM....KR AVIATION...Sarment MARINE...Sarment Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

321 FXUS66 KOTX 151754 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1054 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy winds and mostly mountain showers expected through Saturday, including isolated areas of blowing dust where precipitation is limited. - Cooler temperatures will bring a threat of morning frost starting in the sheltered northern valleys Friday and Saturday, then expanding to more of the area Sunday morning. This would be impactful to any sensitive plants or crops. && .UPDATE... A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the Stevens Pass area from 8 PM tonight through 11 AM Saturday morning. An incoming weather system will result in increasing precipitation along the Cascade crest through the day. But the warm road temperatures of mid-May will make it difficult to stick other than grassy surfaces. This is expected to change tonight with the setting sun, as well as increasing lapse rates as the cold pool associated with the upper low moves overhead combined with low level upslope westerly flow. This will result in moderate to locally heavy snow showers, with 4 to 6 inches forecast to call through Saturday morning. JW && .SYNOPSIS... Breezy winds and chances for mostly mountain showers and thunderstorms linger Thursday through Saturday. Some frost is possible toward Friday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Friday through Sunday: The weekend will remain active as another shortwave moves through the forecast area. This will result in colder than normal temperatures, continued gusty winds, rain showers, and mountain snow. The low that moves through tomorrow will be the strongest of the multiple shortwaves that tracked through the area. This continued westerly flow will cross the Cascade gaps and spill into the rest of the basin, keeping winds elevated through Saturday. Expect wind gusts 20-25 mph each afternoon through Saturday, with stronger gusts 30-40 mph along the Cascade gaps. Though wind headlines are looking unlikely, impacts such as blowing unsecured objects and small tree limbs alongside difficult driving conditions for high profile vehicles could be seen. This low will bring precipitation to the area, but it will not be widespread due to rain shadowing in the deeper basin. Precipitation will be mostly confined to the mountains and fall Saturday morning through evening. Only mountain areas will see more than 0.10 inches of rain, with Spokane, Lewiston, Pullman, and Omak seeing a couple hundredths of an inch. This will be a colder system, with 850mb temperatures 5-10 degrees lower than normal. This will result in mountain passes seeing a return of snow and associated travel impacts. Through Sunday, Stevens Pass has a 50% chance of seeing 6 or more inches of snow. Lookout Pass will receive less, with a 60% chance of 2 inches or more of snow. Much of this snow will fall Saturday. Travelers should prepare for wintry travel conditions across mountain passes over the weekend. Overnight temperatures through Monday will be 5-10 degrees cooler than normal, falling into the mid-30s. Given that growing season has started, frost impacts look likely. Tonight, there is a Frost Advisory out for the Northeast Mountains, Okanogan Highlands, and Western Okanogan County, which have a 60% chance of seeing overnight temperatures 36 degrees or lower. Coverage of 60%+ probabilities increases tonight into Saturday and expands down into the Spokane and Palouse area Saturday evening into Sunday. Frost Advisories are likely, and these temperatures could harm sensitive outdoor vegetation. There is a chance for thunderstorms each afternoon and evening through Sunday as well as the low passes through. Tonight, thunderstorms will largely be confined to the Cascades and northern mountains. Through the weekend, lowering temperatures will increase lapse rates. CAPE values of 100-200 J/kg will be seen over northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle, resulting in a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday evening. Monday through Wednesday: Clusters and long term models are in decent agreement of a strengthening upper level ridge moving in as the low pressure system tracks eastward. This will usher in temperatures warming to near or slightly above normal and drying conditions. Uncertainty in the long term pattern comes from 15% of clusters showing the low over the Central US retrograding back west, bringing cooler temperatures and more chances for precip. /AS && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: Another incoming weather system will bring increasing showers across the region starting in the Cascades and northern mountains today before expanding tonight into Saturday morning. Most of these showers in the lowlands will be isolated to scattered in coverage with the highest focus in the Cascades, NE Washington, and ID Panhandle due to swift mid level westerly flow resulting in some rain shadowing across Central Washington. Look for increasing clouds, with predominantly VFR conditions this afternoon into the evening. Then a moistening boundary layer from showers will lead to increasing areas of MVFR conditions over NE WA/N Idaho overnight into Saturday morning. There is also a slight for thunderstorms this afternoon mainly near the Canadian border. Breezy conditions will continue with west- southwest winds over the region. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Latest HREF guidance starting around 08z-11z tonight through 18z Saturday has a 60-90% chance of MVFR conditions developing at KPUW/KCOE, near 50% for KGEG/KSFF, 10% KLWS, AND 0% KEAT/KMWH. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 58 39 55 35 61 37 / 0 30 60 20 20 10 Coeur d`Alene 56 39 51 35 58 37 / 0 50 80 30 30 10 Pullman 56 39 51 34 55 34 / 0 20 70 50 20 10 Lewiston 64 44 57 40 59 39 / 0 20 50 40 30 10 Colville 60 36 57 29 66 32 / 10 30 70 50 10 10 Sandpoint 55 39 49 35 58 36 / 10 50 80 40 40 10 Kellogg 55 36 47 35 55 35 / 10 60 100 50 60 20 Moses Lake 63 42 63 36 69 39 / 0 20 10 0 0 0 Wenatchee 60 42 61 42 68 45 / 10 20 0 0 0 0 Omak 61 38 60 37 69 41 / 30 20 50 10 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Saturday for Western Chelan County. ID...None. && $$

393 FXUS66 KPDT 151723 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1023 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Minimal precipitation Impacts - Mountain thunderstorm risk on Saturday - Midweek warming && .DISCUSSION... Zonal westerly mid level flow across the PAC NW will break down into a low amplitude trough by the overnight as a shortwave over the gulf of Alaska swings rapidly southeast Today. This will cause light winds this morning to steadily increase into the afternoon becoming westerly at around 15 to 20 mph and gusting to around 30 mph across the Basin and central Oregon and even to around 40 to 50 mph across the Simcoe Highlands. Afternoon temperatures will range from only 30s and 40s in the mountain zones, 50s across the Blue Mountain foothills and as warm as 70 degrees in the John Day Basin This Afternoon. Mountains zone thunderstorms can develop due to the cold air aloft moving in and destabilizing the column in combination with westerly flow/orographic lift. HREF members show 10-50% chances for thunderstorms/lightning ramping up around noon on Saturday and lingering through the day. The low amplitude trough will transition to northwest flow early next week creating a subsident setup for broad subsidence and light westerly winds, increasing temperatures and dry conditions through the balance of the week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Wind gusts, mainly in the 25 to 30 kt range will continue through evening, then subside to 10 kts or less. Wind gusts in the 20 to 25 kt range are expected on Saturday, and should start to increase during the morning hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Overall fire weather risk due to combined low RH and strong winds is limited over the next 7 days. Dry lightning remains a risk on Saturday over the mountains region as the advection of colder air aloft increases instability. && .HYDROLOGY... The Naches river will be falling below the action stage of 16 feet later this morning. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 63 40 59 37 / 0 10 20 30 ALW 63 43 58 40 / 0 30 60 50 PSC 67 41 65 38 / 0 10 20 20 YKM 64 37 64 37 / 0 10 10 0 HRI 65 39 63 37 / 0 10 10 10 ELN 56 32 56 34 / 20 40 10 10 RDM 65 31 54 26 / 0 10 10 10 LGD 63 37 51 34 / 0 40 60 50 GCD 66 36 52 32 / 0 10 30 50 DLS 64 43 60 40 / 0 70 30 20 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...71 AVIATION...77 FIRE WEATHER...71 HYDROLOGY...71

694 FXUS65 KREV 150820 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 120 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm, above-average temperatures through today. Typical westerly breezes with low humidity and poor overnight RH recovery continues across W.Nevada mid-slopes. * A series of cold fronts will bring 10-20 degrees of cooling over the weekend with gusty north winds and chances for light showers along the front on Sunday. * A warming trend will bring a return of above average temperatures for the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today is the final day of our warming trend, with afternoon zephyr winds up to 25 mph. The drying trend will linger into Saturday, with limited overnight recoveries ranging 30-40% across western Nevada. The first of two cold frontal boundaries will arrive for Saturday, bringing cooler air and increasing winds. Saturday`s high temperatures will range the lower 70s for western Nevada and mid 60s with northwest gusts reaching up to 25 mph. Sunday, even colder northerly winds with a secondary frontal boundary will drop temperatures even further to near 10-15 degrees below seasonal averages. Wind gusts out of the north will reach up to 40 mph, with the strongest gusts found south of US 50 and over Mineral and Mono counties. The uptick in winds and decline in temperatures will be noticeable to the outdoor enthusiast crowd, and may bring blowing dust and bumpy flights to travelers as well as choppy lakes across lakes such as Walker and Topaz lakes. With the secondary front, rain and snow showers have a 10-20% chance of developing, with the Basin and Range having the best chances. Snow levels will drop to around 5500-6000 feet by early Sunday morning, along with the arrival of a 540mb dam thickness. This suggests some freezing may be present in elevations above 6000 feet, mostly for northwestern and north-central Nevada. An even colder start to Monday morning will be the last we see of the cold fronts, with warming and drying to resume Monday afternoon. Lows Monday morning could even dip into the low 20s and upper teens across the Sierra. HRICH && .AVIATION... * VFR conditions return to the skies over western Nevada, northeastern California and the Sierra. Afternoon gusts to 20 kts possible today. * Northerly winds will arrive Saturday, increasing with gusts to 25 kts Saturday, and up to 50 kts near KHTH on Sunday. Blowing dust may reduce surface visibilities on Sunday over KNFL, KLOL, and KHTH. Shower and snow chances will be greatest Sunday, with the best opportunity over the KLKN area. HRICH && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

524 FXUS66 KSTO 141936 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1236 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather concerns for the Valley & Delta this weekend-Monday, with gusty north winds and low humidity. - Gusty north to east winds Saturday into Monday, peaking on Sunday. Strongest winds along and west of the I-5 corridor, over mountains and through canyons. - Above-normal temperatures continue through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... ....Today-Friday... Warmer weather is expected today compared to yesterday as weak riding sets up over the area, with temperatures trending 5 to 15 degrees above normal resulting in widespread Minor HeatRisk into the weekend. The Delta Breeze will bring mild relief this afternoon and evening with gusts 15-20 mph through the Delta and into West Sacramento. On Friday, breezy north winds develop through the Sacramento Valley gusting 25 to 35 mph along the I-5 corridor. ...Saturday through Monday... Confidence is high for an inside-slider trough to dig down into the Great Basin early next week. The latest NBM has shown winds trending slightly higher Sunday and Monday, with continued breezy winds on Saturday albeit weaker compared to Sunday-Monday. Current forecast have north winds gusts of 30 to 45 MPH, strongest on Sunday and Monday and along Interstate 5 and in the vicinity Delta where winds could exceed 45 mph. The gusty north winds combined with forecast daytime humidities 9-15%, will result in critical fire weather conditions across portions of the Valley and Delta. As a result, a Fire Weather Watch is in effect from 5 AM Saturday to 8 PM Monday for the Valley and Delta. Overnight recoveries will also be poor with max RHs between 30-55%. As mentioned previously, the strongest winds will be focused along the I-5 corridor and Delta, however winds will still be gusty east of I-5 in the Valley. North winds begin to trend weaker on Monday compared to Sunday, but the subsequent drying and continued low daytime humidities will still result in continued fire weather concerns through Monday. Saturday`s Chances for Wind Gusts > 40 MPH: 20-50% Sunday`s Chances for Wind Gusts > 40 MPH: 65-95% Monday`s Chances for Wind Gusts > 40 MPH: 10-35% Downsloping winds will similarly be gusty through gaps and canyons in the Sierra, especially through Jarbo Gap. Daytime relative humidity values in the mountains and foothills are also expected to be in the mid teens to low 30s during this time. ...Tuesday-Wednesday... Riding begins to set up aloft Tuesday onward resulting in gradually warming temperatures through midweek. Areas of Moderate HeatRisk develop in the foothills, with widespread Minor HeatRisk in the Valley and mountains. Daytime relative humidities will continue to be in the teens to low 20s across the area. Winds are expected to return to a summertime diurnal flow pattern, with onshore winds during the day and offshore winds overnight. Please continue to practice fire safety and monitor your latest forecast to stay up to date at weather.gov/sacramento && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. North winds continue over the northern Sacramento Valley until around 21z Thursday then weakening with continued west-northwest winds through the Delta and northern San Joaquin Valley through 18z Friday, strongest 21z to 03z Friday. West winds over the Sierra until 03z Friday, weakening and turning to the east overnight. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from late Friday night through Monday evening for Butte County Below 1000 ft-C. San Joaquin County including Stockton-C. Solano County including Fairfield-C. Stanislaus County including Modesto-C. Yolo/NE Solano including Woodland- Central Colusa County Incl. I-5-Central Glenn Co & Interstate 5- Eastern Colusa County-Eastern Glenn County-N. Sac Valley in Tehama County-NE San Joaquin Valley Below 1000 ft-SW Solano County including Vallejo-Sac Metro/W. El Dorado/Amador County- Sacramento County Delta-San Joaquin County Delta-Shasta Metro- Sutter/Yuba counties below 1000 ft-Tracy Triangle Below 1000 ft- W. Stanislaus County Above 1000 ft & I-5-W. Yolo County including Capay/I-505. && $$

883 FXUS65 KMSO 150912 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 312 AM MDT Fri May 15 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Unsettled, cool, and showery conditions persist into the weekend. - Southwest Montana remains very dry but decreasing wind speeds should limit areal extent of critical fire weather. - Widespread frost and freezing temperatures are highly likely Sunday through Tuesday mornings. Westerly flow continues over the Northern Rockies today. While conditions remain somewhat breezy, winds are noticeably decreasing compared to the past few days. Expect afternoon gusts generally in the 15 to 25 mph range across the region. In Southwest Montana, very dry air remains in place, however, these decreasing wind speeds will result in elevated but non-critical fire weather conditions. Elsewhere, a couple weak disturbances continue to move through the prevailing westerlies generating scattered light showers, predominantly focused over north-central Idaho and northwest Montana. Snow levels will continue to hover around 5,000 feet, so light snow accumulations will remain confined to the higher terrain. A more organized low-pressure system drops into the region over the weekend, enhancing the coverage of precipitation. As the colder air associated with this trough settles in, snow levels will fall to near 4,000 feet by Sunday morning. Minor, slushy impacts are possible over mountain passes through the weekend. The primary impact of this weekend system will be the unseasonably cold air mass it brings in and leaves behind. Models continue to show high probabilities for widespread temperatures into the frost and freezing ranges (mid-30s and below) for Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings. Anyone with sensitive vegetation or early-season agricultural plantings should prepare to take protective measures. Looking into next week, ensemble guidance points toward a gradual warming trend. However, the pattern looks to remain slightly unsettled. Scattered showers will remain possible, particularly during afternoon and evening hours. && .AVIATION...Scattered light showers are in the forecast particularly in north-central Idaho and northwest Montana. KGPI has the highest probability of seeing some vicinity and light showers. Mountain obscurations will continue to remain a periodic nuisance across the higher terrain. Westerly winds will be lighter than in previous days, though afternoon mixing will still yield gusts of 15 to 20 knots across most terminals persisting into the early evening before decoupling overnight. Note: The KSMN AWOS is currently not transmitting observations properly. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

800 FXUS65 KBOI 151757 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1157 AM MDT Fri May 15 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Normal temps today before another cooldown this weekend, conditions stay dry and breezy. - Another round of precipitation Saturday night into Sunday with lower snow levels will bring snow to higher elevations. - Patchy frost possible Sunday and Monday morning mainly east of Mountain Home. && .SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/... Issued 246 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026 Dry zonal flow remains over the region today, keeping conditions stable with temperatures near seasonal normals. Highs will reach the upper 60s and low 70s in the lower valleys. Winds will stay light through tonight before the next system approaches from the northwest. On Saturday, a cold upper level trough will dive south from the Gulf of Alaska, crossing into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho by the afternoon. This system will usher in a significantly colder air mass. Breezy to windy conditions will develop Saturday afternoon, with west to northwest gusts between 30 and 40 mph common across the Snake River Plain. This could create periods of blowing dust. Precipitation will be limited but focused over the mountains. As the cold air filters in Saturday night, snow levels will drop quickly to around 5000 feet. Light snow accumulations are possible on mountain peaks and higher passes by Sunday morning. The core of the cold pool will settle over the region on Sunday. Daytime highs will be 10 to 15 degrees below normal, struggling to exit the 50s in many valley locations. Breezy northwest winds will persist through the afternoon, making it feel even cooler. As skies clear and winds diminish Sunday night, excellent radiational cooling is expected. Frost will be a primary concern across the Snake River Plain with the best chance across Western Magic Valley early Sunday morning where temperatures are forecast to dip into the low to mid 30s. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... Issued 246 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026 A gradual warming trend begins Monday as the trough departs to the east and a weak ridge builds in from the Pacific. After a chilly start with frost potential in the Magic Valley, temperatures will rebound under sunny skies.Temperatures should return to near normal levels by Wednesday. Dry conditions are expected to prevail through the remainder of the long term period under a more stable northwest flow. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 1149 AM MDT FRI MAY 15 2026 VFR and mostly clear today. Tonight and tomorrow morning, a cold frontal passage brings gusty winds and rain/snow showers to KBKE/KMYL. Snow levels 5-6 kft MSL. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in open areas. The front brings 10-20 kt winds with gusts up to 30 kt tonight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 15-25 kt. KBOI...VFR. Cold frontal passage just after midnight brings gusty NW winds and overcast skies. Surface winds: NW 8 to 12 kts with gusts to 20 kt this afternoon. Light and variable this evening before gusty NW winds arrive with the front. Weekend Outlook: The cold front brings scattered rain/snow showers Sat/Sun, and continued gusty W-NW winds. Snow levels drop to 3.5-5 kft MSL Saturday night. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt Sat, with gusts 25-35 kt. Stronger winds Sunday at NW 15-25 kt with gusts 30-40 kt over most areas. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JM SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JDS

123 FXUS65 KLKN 150707 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1207 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Quiet weather conditions will develop over the next several days * Temperatures continue a slow cooldown that will last through the weekend * Overnight lows are expected to drop to below freezing beginning tonight and continuing into early next week * Chance of isolated rain showers and mountain snow showers this weekend && .UPDATE... Issued at 1203 AM PDT Fri May 15 2026 Current forecast is tracking well this morning - no changes were made. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Quiet weather conditions over Nevada will be the main drive over the next several days with light winds and a cooling temperature trend. Over the weekend, an upper trough over the northwestern CONUS will extend southward clipping northern Nevada by Saturday, into Sunday. This trough will shift wind patterns to a northwesterly flow that will bring in much cooler temperatures with probabilities of 80-100% that high temperatures will be around 20 degrees below normal in the 50s with overnight lows dropping below freezing into the 20s. Along with the trough, relative humidity levels will also increase and push into northern Nevada that will give chances for some rain showers and mountain snow. Confidence is low however as models are split with how much moisture will be in the atmosphere over the weekend with some models indicating precipitable water values below 0.3 inches. Much of the precipitation is expected to fall over eastern portions of Nevada in Elko and White Pine Counties. Accumulation amounts expected to be light in the valleys, but still see upwards of 50-70% of up to 0.02 inches of rain, while higher elevations and mountains above 6000 feet will start seeing snow as snow levels drop before the precipitation arrives. Overnight, rain will transition to snow with snow levels dropping around 4000 feet. Snow accumulations in the valleys not expected to be much with values ranging from a trace to 0.1 inches, while passes and summits along eastern I-80 and north of the interstate, up to 1 inch of snow. Jarbidge Wilderness Area, Ruby Mountains, and mountain ranges in White Pine County could see up to 1-3 inches of fresh snow. Winds also expected to increase as the upper trough passes over Nevada with afternoon wind gusts up to 30-40 mph or more. Monday and through the week, the upper trough will push east and exit the state, returning quiet weather conditions with temperatures quickly warming back to near normal in the 70s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of quiet weather conditions with cooling temperatures trends through the rest of the week. Moderate confidence of much cooler temperatures to freezing overnight temperatures through the weekend. Low confidence of valley rain and mountain snow over the weekend. Moderate confidence quiet weather conditions and warmer temperatures return next week. No changes to the NBM grids at this time. && .AVIATION... Look for VFR conditions across all terminals for the next 24 hour period with wind gusts up to 25 kts developing during the late morning through the afternoon today. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86/97 AVIATION...97