182 FXUS66 KSEW 151547 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 847 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge will bring dry and warm conditions through Friday. Wetter and cooler weather arrives on Saturday. Sunday remains cool with more wet weather headed our way on Monday. Another front may reach us midweek. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The Dense Fog Advisory has been extended until 10AM this morning as there are still quite a few locations throughout the Puget Sound region where visibilities are at a quarter mile or less. Otherwise, afternoon sun is still expected with highs around 70. The rest of the previous discussion can be found below with an update to the aviation and marine sections. Forecast highs will track warmer than normal with lower 70s expected today. Areas near the water will be in the 60s. Offshore flow will peak overnight with gusty east winds along the Cascade crest and in the gaps (gusts to 20-30 MPH). Friday will be slightly warmer with interior temperatures reaching the mid 70s. Saturday`s weather will be cooler and wetter as the ridge shifts east and a front/trough move in from the west. Rain will mostly fall during the morning hours with highest chances of seeing wetting rains along the coast and north part. The Seattle area on south may only see a trace to a few hundredths. Onshore flow will increase Saturday afternoon with showers and a convergence zone over Snohomish County. 33 && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... We`re in between weather systems on Sunday but the air mass will remain cool. Sunday`s morning lows will be in the 30s to mid 40s with temperatures near freezing across the south sound. Highs will be around 60 degrees. An upper low will spin offshore early next week keeping the weather cool and unsettled through Monday. The upper low will shift farther south on Tuesday for generally dry weather across western WA. Rain chances increase again on Wednesday as a weak front tracks down from B.C. 33 && .AVIATION... Areas of fog and low stratus are bringing IFR to LIFR conditions to many of the interior terminals this morning. Fog will scatter through the morning hours, with conditions expected to improve at the area terminals between 17-19Z. A return to VFR conditions is expected by this afternoon with mostly clear skies and high clouds streaming in overhead. High cloud cover will persist through tonight. High cloud cover and continued offshore flow in the low levels tonight will likely limit widespread fog development on Friday morning, with high-res guidance showing little to no fog development expected for the area terminals. However, NBM LAMP guidance suggests some development by Friday morning. Given the current discrepancy, will maintain fog for the more fog-prone locations across the south Sound for Friday morning at this time. Winds remain north/northeasterly 5 to 10 kt through the period. Easterly winds will persist through the Cascades with gusts up to 20- 25 kt through the gaps this afternoon and into this evening. KSEA...LIFR conditions at the terminal this morning. Stratus and fog look to scatter around 18-19Z followed by VFR conditions with high clouds through this evening. Fog/stratus development is possible Friday morning but high clouds should keep it less widespread. Latest guidance continues to show divergent solutions. Winds north/northeasterly 5-10 kt through this afternoon. Winds may turn east/southeasterly briefly as early as 20-22Z, but more likely around 00Z Fri before winds shift more to the south/southwest Friday morning. 62/14 && .MARINE... Areas of fog have have developed across portions of the interior waters and along the Strait of Juan de Fuca this morning and have become dense in spots. Fog may bring visibilities down to 1 nautical mile or less through the mid-morning hours, before scattering by late morning/early afternoon. Offshore flow will increase this morning as a thermal trough develops along the coast. Winds will peak this morning, but remain offshore through early Friday as the trough gets pushed inland by an incoming frontal system. This system will force winds to switch to onshore on Friday and increase Friday night into Saturday. The strongest winds will be most likely through the Strait of Juan de Fuca where there is a 35-45% chance of seeing up to low-end gale force gusts, but other locations such as the outer coastal waters and through Puget Sound and Hood Canal have 40-70% chances of seeing wind gusts over 20 kt. Winds look to decrease as the system departs Saturday evening. Winds look to remain relatively benign Sunday through early next week as systems are favored to pass by well offshore. Seas remain 4 to 6 ft through tonight, increasing to around 8 to near 10 ft Friday through the weekend. The forecast gets more uncertain on Monday as a low pressure system moves through well offshore, but could generate and send larger waves to the coastal waters. The most likely forecast remains in the 8 to 10 ft range, but waves could get as large as 13 to 16 ft depending on the exact track of this system. EPS and GEFS show a 20-30% chance of seas exceeding 12 ft Monday into Tuesday. 62/14 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PDT this morning for City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties- Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties- Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area. PZ...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PDT this morning for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal. && $$

036 FXUS66 KPQR 151802 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 1102 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...Updated aviation discussion... .SYNOPSIS...High pressure and offshore easterly winds will bring dry and unseasonably warm temperatures today and Friday. The strongest easterly winds are expected along the Columbia River Gorge and western slopes of the Cascades. A weak cold front will bring chances for light rain late Friday night into Saturday, before high pressure returns dry weather Saturday night into Sunday. The next chances for rain are Monday into early Tuesday with an approaching low pressure system, although guidance continues to trend drier. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...Satellite imagery and surface observations as of early Thursday morning depict mostly clear skies across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington as an upper-level ridge moves overhead. Will likely remain clear through the morning, though there is a low (10-20%) chance that some stratus develops across the Willamette Valley through 8-9 AM. Today and Friday will be the warmest days of the week, with high temperatures forecast in the upper 70s across interior valleys and 60s along the coast. Some locations may even reach 80 degrees, with a 10-30% chance along the I-5 corridor and a 50-70% chance along valleys of the Cascade foothills. Although high temperatures are expected to be around 10-15 degrees above normal for mid-October, most locations are not expected to break any records (which were mainly set back in 2022). These could be our last "hot" days of the year, as we typically see temperatures drop off during the second half of October. In addition to warm temperatures, will also see increasing offshore easterly winds beginning this morning along the Columbia River Gorge, eastern Portland/Vancouver Metro, Cascades, and Cascade foothills. Model guidance continues to suggest surface pressure gradients tightening to -5 to -6 mb between Troutdale and The Dalles, producing wind gusts up to 25-35 mph, except up to 45-50 mph on wind-prone exposed ridgetops. Pressure gradients slacken later Friday morning with winds easing by the afternoon. Onshore flow returns by late Friday night into early Saturday morning ahead of an incoming weak cold front. -10/DH && .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...The aforementioned front will quickly swings through on Saturday, returning cooler temperatures and chances for light rain. Bulk of the precipitation is aimed towards British Columbia and far northwest Washington, so the further south you go in northwest Oregon such as Lincoln County or the southern Willamette Valley, the more likely conditions remain completely dry. Chances for rain totals exceeding 0.10 inch from 5 PM Friday to 5 PM Saturday are only 5-15% from Salem to Longview, and 10-30% along the coast from Tillamook northward and the south WA/north OR Cascades. Conditions quickly dry out Saturday night to Sunday as transient shortwave ridge passes through. Expect seasonable temperatures in the mid to upper 60s across interior valleys and 50s along the coast and Cascades. Monday to Tuesday, the majority of ensemble members are in agreement that an upper-level trough from the northeast Pacific will approach the Pacific Northwest, returning chances for rain between early Monday morning and late Monday night. Will note that these chances have gone down significantly, as of 75% of ensemble members are now showing this trough staying further offshore and progressing southward toward California rather than moving completely over the Pacific Northwest. If this scenario occurs, precipitation would be limited in our area. Chances for 24-hour rain totals exceeding 0.25 inch between 5 AM Monday to 5 AM Tuesday have fallen to 15-20% along the coast, Coast Range, and Willapa Hills, and 5-10% along the I-5 corridor. By Wednesday, ensembles have the upper trough swinging into central California, while weak high pressure re-builds over the Pacific Northwest, favoring predominately dry conditions. At the same time, it does appear that another upper-level trough will begin to approach British Columbia and potentially make its way down into the Pacific Northwest late next week, returning chances for precipitation. -10 && .AVIATION...Through 18Z Friday...Predominately VFR conditions with clear skies across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington through the TAF period as upper-level high pressure moves over the Pacific Northwest. Offshore flow continues through Friday on the western slopes of the Cascades and Coast Range and to the coast. Breezy winds are expected through the Columbia River Gorge and eastern Portland/Vancouver Metro Area, bringing gusts of 25-30 kts to KTTD and 21-25 kt to KPDX after 19-21z Fri. Gusts up to 20-25 kts are also possible at times through coastal gaps. For the rest of the central and southern Willamette Valley, expect north to northeasterly winds around 5-10 kts. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with clear skies through the TAF period. Easterly winds increase this afternoon with gusts up to 21-25 kt after 19-21z Thu. Winds gradually weaken after 04-06z Fri. -03 && .MARINE...Benign marine conditions continue. A thermal trough along the coast will bring light, east/northeasterly winds through this morning. Later this afternoon, the thermal trough will break down, returning northerly to northwesterly winds over the waters. A series of fronts passing through the waters will turn winds southerly Friday night into Saturday morning, and Sunday night into Monday. Seas remain around 4-7 ft at 10-12 seconds through early Saturday morning. A steeper northwesterly swell arrives this weekend, building seas to 7-9 ft by Saturday evening and 10-12 ft early next week. There is a 5-15% chance for seas exceeding 15 ft on Monday, with the highest chances north of Cape Foulweather and beyond 30-40 NM. Will also note that the long periods from the swells will result in a moderate sneaker wave threat this week. Caution should be used when in or near the water. -10/03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

926 FXUS66 KMFR 151740 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1040 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .DISCUSSION...Updated marine discussion and aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs. && .AVIATION...15/18Z TAFs...18Z sounding shows 925-850mb winds of 25-30kt. This could lead to some bumpy departures/arrivals or even LLWS through 19Z. This risk should lessen as vertical mixing increases into this afternoon. East to southeast winds are expected to continue over the mountains again tonight and Friday morning, especially the Cascades/Siskiyous. These winds, just a couple of thousand feet AGL, will again be approximately 25-30 kt from the ESE. This will bring an enhanced risk of low level wind shear at Medford Airport beginning 01-03Z and lasting until about 15Z as another strong inversion develps and prevents those winds from reaching the surface. Breezy conditions likely persist in Ashland, however. VFR will prevail through the TAF period for all terminals except for localized IFR/LIFR in patchy fog along the coast or coastal valleys tonight into Friday morning. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 730 AM PDT Thursday, October 15, 2026...Conditions improve today as winds weaken and seas become primarily dominated by low westerly and southwesterly swells. A new swell will arrive around Saturday and push waves slightly higher this weekend. Conditions could become hazardous to small craft again beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing into Sunday. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 430 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Very warm temperatures and dry conditions today and Friday. * A dry cold front will move through Saturday with a cooling trend. * Dry, mild weather expected Sunday. * A stronger low and front approaches coast Sunday night and Monday, but rain chances are low for inland areas with higher chances along the coast and offshore. DISCUSSION...Today and Friday, high pressure will remain in place with very warm temperatures and dry conditions. High temperatures are expected to be around 15 to 20 degrees above normal through Friday for inland areas. Breezy to gusty easterly to southeasterly winds will persist across area ridges. This will bring dry humidities to the ridges. Additionally, breezy southeast winds are expected in the afternoon today for areas east of the Cascades and in portions of the Rogue Valley, including the Ashland area. This pattern with breezy/gusty winds is expected again on Friday afternoon for areas east of the Cascades. This will bring elevated, but not critical, fire weather conditions to inland areas, especially on Friday for areas east of the Cascades. Then, on Saturday, a dry cold front will move across the area. This will bring cooler temperatures for most areas. A marine push will produce cloudy conditions across northwest portions of the CWA (mainly coastal areas and the Umpqua Basin). Temperatures are expected to be near normal along the coast and into Douglas County but elsewhere will be around 10 degrees above normal. There is a potential for breezy winds Saturday afternoon, especially along the coast and potentially across areas east of the Cascades. Sunday expect dry and mild conditions with morning low clouds west of the southern Oregon Cascades. A low pressure and front will approach the coast Sunday night. Current model runs continue to show this low remaining offshore as it gradually shifts south. This will result in most the rain occuring offshore. Rain chances for the coast and inland are in the 20-40% range for Monday with coastal areas having the highest chances (30-40%) and low chances (10-20%) inland. Tuesday into Wednesday, models are showing that low headed into southern California. Some of the moisture may wrap around into southeast portions of the CWA but ensembles continue to show significant variability on the exact track of the low and northern extent of the moisture. So, confidence is low. AVIATION...15/12Z TAFs...VFR will prevail through the TAF period for all terminals except for localized IFR/LIFR in patchy fog along the coast through early this morning and again Thursday night. East to southeast winds increase over the mountains, especially the Cascades/Siskiyous, overnight and this morning. These winds, just a couple of thousand feet AGL, will be approximately 25 kt from the ESE. This will bring an enhanced risk of low level wind shear at Medford Airport after 10-12Z, lasting until about 17Z-19Z due to a strong inversion, which should prevent those winds from reaching the surface. It could get breezy in Ashland beginning this morning, however. MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Thursday, October 15, 2026...Gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas will continue for areas south of Cape Blanco through early Thursday morning. Conditions improve Thursday as winds weaken and seas diminish. A new swell will arrive around Saturday and push waves slightly higher this weekend. Conditions could become hazardous to small craft again beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing into Sunday. FIRE WEATHER...An unseasonably warm air mass moves in over SW Oregon and NorCal today and Friday. This will bring elevated fire weather risk, especially over the higher terrain. Gusty offshore winds (E-SE) this morning, peaking over the upper slopes and ridges, especially the Cascades, west side foothills and Siskiyou mtns with peak gusts of 20 to 30 mph. Expect worsening mid slope/ridge RH recoveries during the overnights (worst Thursday night from the Cascades west, and then Friday night from the Cascades east). Winds will subside across the ridges on Friday morning but may remain gusty Thursday night/early Friday. A very dry day is expected Friday with afternoon minimum RH in the teens in many areas inland of the coastal mountains, perhaps even some single digit readings in portions of NorCal and over the East Side. Breezy to locally gusty winds are also expected Friday afternoon for areas east of the Cascades (eastern Klamath, Lake and Modoc counties). These conditions do not meet Red Flag warning criteria, due to either moderate fire danger, or not long enough duration of combined critical wind/rh levels. Even so, conditions will be elevated to near critical today and Friday (especially in the Umpqua NF/southern Oregon Cascades and perhaps Modoc at times). As a result, we opted to headline the Fire Weather Planning Forecast. On Saturday, a dry cold front will swing through and humidity will increase for all but the far SE sections of the area. Winds don`t appear to be too strong with this front, so fire concerns lessen. Humidity recoveries will be much better area wide Saturday night. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$ MAS

050 FXUS66 KEKA 150913 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 213 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Very dry conditions with gusty northeast winds focused in Lake County will increase fire danger Thursday and Friday. * A warming trend peaking Thursday and Friday with interior highs in the 90s. * Cold front most likely to cross the area Sunday into Monday. 50% chance of wetting rain along the North Coast. && .SYNOPSIS...A general warming trend will peak today and Friday, even for the coast where marine influence remains weak. Cooler and more moist conditions build by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Weak high pressure continues to build across the area. Interior high temperatures will peak Thursday and Friday with highs in the 90s, which is much warmer than normal for mid October. Meanwhile, a positively titled trough passing across central California will promote moderate to strong northeast winds, especially for the southern half of the area. Gusts will generally remain less than 25 mph, but they will pull in very dry air keeping even the coast mostly free of marine influence. Winds will weaken again Friday, likely (50% chance) allow a weak marine layer to finally form near shore. High pressure will break down this weekend. Winds turning back onshore will help push in a deeper and stronger marine layer with interior highs pulling back into the 70s. A cold front will cross the area around Monday, but potential moisture with the front remains uncertain. Wetting rain potential along the North Coast has decreased back to about 30% with most likely rainfall of 0.1 to 0.15 inches. Winds with the front appear only moderate at best even in high end models. Regardless of rainfall, there is high confidence in generally seasonable cool and moist conditions through next week with another front likely around next Wednesday. /JHW && .AVIATION...06z TAF...Winds have veered southeast since their change from the steady northerly set up from Wednesday evening regime at KCEC. Expect a more easterly bearing overnight below 5kts at KCEC with a slight probability of ground fog as a brief visibility obfuscation into early Thursday morning. KACV has a light wind out of the east overnight which will turn westerly Thursday afternoon around 5-6kts. Light winds at KUKI tomorrow with winds picking up in the early evening at a variable bearing and under 6kts, VFR otherwise. /EYS & .MARINE...Northerlies continue to reduce in area, exposing lighter winds over the inner and most of the outer waters. Seas reducing from 8ft to around 5-6ft by Thursday afternoon with 4-5ft seas in the inner waters. An upper mid period swell continues from the northwest at 4ft-13sec and a westerly swell at 2ft-16sec, through Thursday afternoon and diminishing a few days after. The sea state will be mixed with a return of near gale northerlies late in the weekend. /EYS && .FIRE WEATHER...A warming and drying trend will peak Thursday and Friday. Interior highs will reach near 90 with RH sticking in the the teens. ERC values will return close to the 80th percentile, representing moderate to high fire danger. Said percentiles are near record breaking for the time of year but remain much lower than peak summer. Beyond just warm and dry conditions, a very positively tilted trough over the central California Coast will promote moderate northeast winds today, mostly restricted to high ridges as far north as central Humboldt County. Winds will be locally strong in southern and eastern Lake County with gusts mixing in the afternoon over 25 mph. These winds will promote areas of critical fire weather with a Red Flag warning in effect. Northeast winds will weaken Friday, but remain gusty along high ridges at least through the morning. Conditions will be exceptionally dry Friday in the wake of the winds with many interior locations seeing single digit RH. /JHW && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Red Flag Warning until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ418- 419. Fire Weather Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for CAZ418-419. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

430 FXUS66 KMTR 151749 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1049 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue into the weekend before a cooling trend begins Sunday into next week - Near critical fire weather conditions due to moderate flow and very dry conditions across the higher elevations Thursday and Friday - Potential for light rain and breezy onshore winds early to mid next week && .UPDATE... Issued at 821 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 No update to the forecast necessary this morning. A Fire Weather Watch was issued overnight for the North Bay interior mountains where very dry and windy conditions tonight through Friday morning will promote rapid spread of any fire ignitions. Winds at the highest spots are already sustained at 30+ MPH with little to no overnight relative humidity recovery last night. RH values this morning are generally in the 20-30% range, and expected to be in the teens by later today. The decision on whether to upgrade to a Red Flag Warning will be made this afternoon with the scheduled forecast update. There are pockets of moderate HeatRisk this afternoon with the warming temperatures, mainly in the North Bay and East Bay. More widespread HeatRisk is in store for Friday, including many coastal areas as offshore flow continues to work against the marine layer. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 (Tonight through Friday) Near critical fire weather conditions continue across the higher elevations, particularly the North Bay Interior Mountains, through Friday. A positively tilted upper level ridge remains over Oregon and Northern/Central California while a cut-off low lingers over Southern California. This setup promotes light to moderate offshore winds across the region with the potential for more moderate to gusty offshore winds across the higher elevations. Model guidance keeps gusts across the elevated terrain peaking between 20 to 30 mph with locally stronger gusts possible across the highest peaks (e.g. Mt. St. Helena). The GFS and HRRR are both in agreement that the SFO- WMC gradient will peak around -9 mb Thursday morning and -10 mb Thursday night into Friday. The NAM continues to be an outlier and suggests the gradient could peak around -14 mb but looking closer into their forecast wind gusts still keeps gusts in a similar, but slightly stronger range, of 25 to 35 mph. Very dry conditions are expected across the higher elevations during both the daytime and overnight hours. Much of the region will see daytime RH in the 10s to 20s with poor to very poor overnight recoveries with the worst recoveries across the higher elevations. Given the very dry conditions and potential for offshore winds, any spark has the potential to start a fire. Remember, one less spark one less wildfire. Warmer temperatures continue Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s to low 90s on Thursday and upper 80s to 90s on Friday. Patchy Moderate HeatRisk is expected on Thursday but becomes more widespread across urban areas on Friday. If you are outdoors during peak heating, make sure you are drinking plenty of water and taking frequent breaks in the shade. The marine layer remains mixed out through the short term due to the presence of the ridge so expect && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday) Offshore winds decrease by Friday afternoon/evening as upper level ridging weakens and broad troughing returns to the region. High temperatures Saturday will still be warm in the 80s to low 90s but cooler temperatures return Sunday into next week. By Sunday, broad troughing returns to the region with temperatures cooling into the 70s to low 80s. Fall weather returns in force next week as we get our first potential rainmaker of the season. This low pressure system looks to originate from the Gulf of Alaska and will bring much cooler, moister air into the region as the surface low weakens and moves into California next week. Highs will be seasonal to below normal in the 60s to low 70s across the interior and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast. Rain chances increase Tuesday through late week with wetting rains (>0.10") likely across the Central Coast and potentially Santa Cruz County/the South Bay. Light rain is possible across the rest of the Bay Area but does not look to meet wetting rain criteria at this time. Guidance is showing a low (<10%) chance of thunderstorms next week so that will be something to keep an eye on as this event gets closer in time. && && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1047 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 High confidence for VFR conditions to prevail through the TAF period regionwide as high pressure builds in over the region. Light/variable to offshore winds prevail early this morning but are likely to return onshore by early-to-mid afternoon. However, onshore wind speeds will be weaker than previous days. Vicinity of SFO...VFR at the terminal through the TAF period. Light/variable winds persist early this morning and are forecast to become weak offshore and persist through about 22Z when they turn more onshore. Winds ease overnight and become weak offshore again Friday morning. Onshore winds are again forecast by Friday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through the TAF period. Typical drainage winds (southeasterly) prevail at SNS with onshore winds expected to return regionwide early afternoon. Winds ease after sunset and become light/variable overnight into Friday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1047 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Moderate seas prevail across the outer waters, while the inner waters experience slight to moderate seas through Friday night. During this time frame, gentle to fresh northerly breezes continue. Moderate to fresh northerly winds return for the weekend, which will be accompanied with rough seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 547 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A Fire Weather Watch was issued for the North Bay Interior Mountains and will go into effect later this evening and run through Friday morning. This is due to moderate offshore winds very dry with very poor overnight humidity recoveries only reaching 14 to 24 percent. Rapid fire spread is possible given the combination of gusty northerly winds and very dry overnight conditions. Elsewhere in the Bay Area, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected for the higher elevations late tonight through Friday morning. Dry conditions, poor overnight RH recovery, combined with the breezy winds, warmer weather, and available fuels leads to the elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Fire Weather Watch from 10 PM PDT this evening through Friday morning for CAZ504. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...RGass MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

462 FXUS66 KOTX 151653 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 953 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather pattern through middle of next week. - Temperatures trend warmer through Friday, peaking in the mid 60s to mid 70s. - A cold front on Saturday will bring breezy to locally windy conditions and the potential for patchy blowing dust. && .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions and light winds remain in the forecast through the end of the workweek with a ridge of high pressure positioned over the region. Temperatures trend warmer each day, peaking in the mid 60s to mid 70s on Friday. On Saturday breezy to windy conditions will occur, before lighter winds and seasonal temperatures to follow Sunday into the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday: A dry weather pattern will dominate through Friday as an upper ridge builds over the region. The building ridge will allow for a gradual warming trend with high temperatures peaking on Friday in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Saturday and Sunday: The ridge flattens on Saturday as a quick moving cold front sweeps across the region. A combination of swift westerly flow, and the bulk of the moisture with this front in the low to mid levels of the atmosphere, will keep precipitation focused near the Cascade crest with dry weather for Central and Eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. The cold front will result in breezy to locally windy conditions across the region especially the typical spots such as the East Slopes of the Cascades, Columbia Basin, West Plains, and Palouse. The NBM is carrying a 60-90 percent chance of wind gusts exceeding 30 MPH in these areas, with a 50-60 percent chance of gusts exceeding 40 MPH on the Waterville Plateau. Given the dry soils in the Columbia Basin can not rule out patchy blowing dust with the winds on Saturday. On Sunday as this front exits dry weather and light winds return. Cooler and drier air behind the front will allow for colder overnight lows Saturday Night, although typical for mid-October with readings mainly in the 30s. Monday through Wednesday: The next system approaches the region but then slides south of the region into California. Ensembles have come into good agreement with this idea with NBM now only carrying a 5-10 percent chance of showers for early next week. High temperatures also show little day to day change with readings in the upper 50s to mid 60s with is close to normal for this time of year. JW && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with just a few passing high clouds through 18z Friday. Strengthening high pressure in the lee of the Rockies in NW Montana will lead to predominately easterly flow with the strongest winds at KPUW during the mornings. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions through 18Z Friday for all TAF sites. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 37 65 39 70 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 37 65 38 68 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 37 65 40 69 43 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 40 67 41 73 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 33 67 32 68 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 34 63 35 65 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 37 64 38 69 41 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 37 71 39 69 38 69 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 47 69 45 68 48 66 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 41 69 39 68 41 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

304 FXUS66 KPDT 151720 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1020 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry and warm conditions through the end of the week 2. Breezy conditions through the Grande Ronde Valley Friday with light mountain precipitation. 3. Breezy through the wind prone areas Saturday && .DISCUSSION... Current nighttime satellite is showing clear skies over the region. This will allow for cooler overnight temperatures. Temperatures will be in the upper 20s to low 30s across portions of central OR and the eastern mountains in locations like La Pine and Seneca. The Basin, Gorge, foothills and Yakima/Kittitas Valleys will see temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s. Deterministic models are in firm agreement with the upper level ridge remaining over the area through Friday afternoon. Temperatures will peak on Friday with in office calculations showing temperatures to be nearly 15-20 degrees above seasonal normal. Looking at the ensemble guidance, 80-90% of the HREF raw ensembles show temperatures to be in the low to mid 70s through the Basin, foothills, Gorge and Yakima/Kittitas Valleys while central OR and the John Day Basin will see upper 70s with some possible 80s mixed in. Models show that Friday will begin to see the synoptic transition of the upper level ridge moving east and an upper level trough building into the region from the northwest. As the ridge exits the area, a surface high will form in Treasure Valley while a weak surface low will form over the Columbia Basin. This is the perfect synoptic set up for easterly breezy winds through the Grande Ronde Valley. Winds through the area are expected to begin to pick after midnight reaching its peak after 11 AM and persisting through 5 PM. HREF raw ensembles show sustained winds of 20-25 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph with some isolated 40 mph gusts with 80-90% agreement. Saturday models show the upper level trough beginning to dig into the PacNW. As the leading edge of the trough wedges itself against the Cascades, the pressure gradients begin to tighten leading to breezy conditions through the typical winds prone gap areas. Looking at the NBM raw ensembles, 60-80% are in agreement that the Kittitas Valley will see winds between 20-25 mph sustained winds with gusts of 30-35 mph. The Gorge will see 15-20 mph sustained winds and gusts of 25-30 mph. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... VFR conditions to persist throughout the TAF period for all sites. Clear skies to start with few high clouds towards the 08-18z period for all sites. Breezier conditions for KDLS, KRDM, and KBND at 10KT, with gusts at 15KT for KDLS.&& .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 69 37 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 69 44 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 72 38 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 70 42 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 70 37 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 67 38 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 75 33 79 36 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 70 41 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 75 36 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 74 44 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...07/95

782 FXUS65 KREV 151907 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1207 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warmer conditions prevail through this weekend. * Increased east to southeast breezes through Friday with stronger ridge top winds peaking tonight. * Cooler temperatures return next week with increased winds Monday, followed by chances for rain and mountain snow showers. && .DISCUSSION... While the remainder of this week will remain dry with daytime highs warming to the upper 60s-mid 70s on Friday, winds will be the primary weather feature through Friday night. East winds have increased over the Sierra crest with gusts up to 60 mph this morning while for the Carson Range, gusts on Slide Mtn have ranged from 35-40 mph. Lake Tahoe buoys reported conditions nearing lake wind advisory thresholds--sustained 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph and observed choppy conditions (estimated wave heights up to 2 feet) from west shore web cameras. These winds are projected to peak this evening and late tonight which align with Tahoe`s current Lake Wind Advisory. Elsewhere, east to northeast wind gusts of 15-20 mph with occasional gusts to 25 mph are expected through early this evening. By Friday, the Sierra ridge winds diminish, but a surface gradient remains over lower elevations with winds shifting to the southeast. Gusts of 15-25 mph are expected for much of the region, with pockets of enhanced 30-35 mph gusts in parts of Mineral County and northeast CA/far northwest NV which could elevate fire weather concerns in these areas--see the Fire Weather section below for more details. Higher resolution guidance holds on to a small area of enhanced southeast to south winds (sustained 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph) across Mineral and southeast Churchill counties Friday night. This includes Walker Lake which could become choppy overnight, but these conditions will ease by Saturday morning as winds diminish. Lighter winds then prevail through the remainder of Saturday, then more typical zephyr-type southwest/west breezes (gusts up to 25 mph) return Sunday afternoon. Temperatures this weekend will rise into the mid-upper 70s for lower elevations and near 70 degrees in the Sierra. An approaching upper-level trough breaks down the ridge early next week. Monday brings the start of a cooling trend with increasing potential for wind gusts 30-40 mph and renewed fire weather concerns (also detailed in the Fire Weather section below). Cooler temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s follow Tuesday through Thursday as low pressure drops southward off the CA coast. While some scenarios were still showing a farther offshore track, there`s a bit more confidence this low will be close enough to bring showers into the Sierra as soon as Tuesday morning, then spread into parts of western NV Tuesday afternoon or evening. Precip chances have increased to 40-60% near and south of I-80, with 25-40% chances north of I-80 from Tuesday night through Wednesday night, with 15-35% shower chances lingering through Thursday, as the most likely scenario favors a slow eastward progression of this low across the Great Basin or southwest US as it moves inland. Precip and mountain snow amounts (mainly above 8000 ft) have also trended upward compared to yesterday`s forecast, although this will continue to fluctuate depending on the storm`s eventual track. MJD && .AVIATION... * VFR conditions prevail through this weekend under clear skies or patchy cirrus. East/southeast gusts up to 15-20 kts this afternoon through Friday, then lighter winds Saturday. Stronger FL100/ridge top east winds (40-50 kts) through Friday morning may trigger mountain wave turbulence and LLWS west of the Sierra and Carson Ranges. MJD && .FIRE WEATHER... * A short period of elevated fire weather conditions may occur Friday afternoon over isolated portions of northern Washoe County, the Surprise Valley, northeast Lassen County and parts of Mineral County where southeast wind gusts could reach 30-35 mph, with minimum humidity between 12-18%. * The next period to watch for elevated fire weather concerns is Monday afternoon, as southwest winds return with potential gusts 30-40 mph from the Sierra Front/Tahoe basin northward to northeast CA/northwest NV. Humidity looks more marginal with minimums mainly 15-20% in lower elevations and 20-30% for Sierra locations, but most of these areas have seen little to no rainfall for the past few weeks. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Friday NVZ002. CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Friday CAZ072. && $$

467 FXUS66 KSTO 151907 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1207 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warning in effect until 10 AM PDT Friday for the Sierra and adjacent foothills. - Dry and warm weather with gusty east-northeast Sierra winds through the end of the week. - Gradual cool down through the weekend with renewed precipitation chances early to mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... ...Rest of Today-Friday... Mostly clear skies observed across interior NorCal at the time of this writing. Upper level pattern reveals a ridge of high pressure deepening inland and weak troughing developing to the southeast of the area. Pattern will continue to allow for gusty north to east winds in the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills, north winds in the Valley, and low humidity values. Some observation points in the higher elevations have recorded wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph this morning, as well as morning RH values in the teens to low 20s, creating critical fire weather conditions. As the ridge and low deepen, winds will once again increase as we move into the evening and overnight areas. The Red Flag Warning will continue in the Sierra and adjacent foothills through at least 10 AM Friday. NBM probabilities of wind gusts greater than 40 mph in the mountains are around 70-90% this evening and overnight, as the resultant pressure gradient will be the strongest. Overnight RH recoveries will remain in the low 20s to 30s, similar to what we saw this morning. Elsewhere in the Valley, periods of breezy north to east winds will develop; strongest along and west of the I-5 corridor today and Friday. Locally stronger wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph in Colusa, Yolo, and northwestern Solano Counties will develop Friday as well. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue in the Valley and areas listed above tomorrow when winds are the strongest and humidity values are at their lowest. High temperatures will continue to warm today and Friday, with highs reaching the low 90s across much of the Valley. Ridge axis will begin to slowly move to the east, while a weak cut-off low forms in SoCal by Friday, keeping those dry and breezy to gusty conditions lingering through the afternoon/evening. ...Weekend into Next Week... By Saturday, the ridge moves further east, and cut-loff low remains off the coast of SoCal. Pattern will allow for slight cooling to begin across the region, but only by a few degrees keeping temperatures above normal with continued dry conditions. Offshore winds will ease as well as the upper air pattern continues to evolve. Sunday, a notable pattern change will begin as the aforementioned SoCal cut-off low will factor more into our weather pattern, allowing onshore flow to return to the area. High temperatures will cool to the low 80s across NorCal on Sunday and humidity values will see much better recoveries. Low pressure will also develop in the PacNW and begin to dig further south Sunday afternoon/evening. Further southerly movement of the PacNW low and associated offshore troughing will cool temperatures further Monday through Wednesday, as well as introduce some slight shower chances to the region. Uncertainty remains relatively high on where the PacNW low will track, but recent ensemble runs are trying to keep the parent low offshore. Pattern would suggest better precipitation chances in the mountains and foothills, and the NBM probabilities reveal the best chances (50-70%) of 0.10" of measurable rain will be in the higher elevations. We will continue to monitor the track and strength of this system, but overall a cooldown and return of onshore flow are very likely early next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Light to locally breezy north winds less than 12 knots at Valley TAF sites. North wind gusts up to 15 to 20 knots at RDD and RBL beginning roughly 20z today and continuing through the forecast period Friday. East to northeast wind gusts of 30-45 knots along the Sierra next 24 hours. Additional north wind gusts of 20-30 knots in Yolo and Colusa counties 20z today. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 10 AM PDT Friday for Central Motherlode 1000-3000 ft-N. Motherlode 1000-3000 ft-Sierra (Cal-Tuo) 3000- 5000 ft-Sierra (Cal-Tuo) Above 5000 ft-Sierra (El Dorado-Amador) Above 5000 ft-Sierra (Sierra-Placer) Above 5000 ft-Sierra (Tehama-Plumas) 1000-3000 ft-Sierra (Tehama-Plumas) Above 3000 ft-Sierra (Yuba-Placer) 3000-5000 ft-Sierra 3000-5000 ft- Southern Motherlode 1000-3000 ft. && $$

672 FXUS65 KMSO 151833 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1233 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Cool mornings and pleasant afternoons the rest of the week. - Gusty winds and choppy lakes on Saturday, especially across northwest MT. - Pattern shift early next week, gradually cooling with scattered showers. A ridge of high pressure will bring mostly sunny skies and pleasant mid-October weather across the region through Friday, aside from some patchy valley fog Friday morning. High temperatures on Friday may stay slightly cooler in the valleys than initially expected due to stable conditions and cold air trapped in the valleys overnight (inversions). The pattern shifts this weekend, as a dry cold front sweeps through western Montana and north-central Idaho Saturday afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, breezy westerly winds will help warm daytime temperatures. Expect wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph, with exposed higher terrain seeing gusts in excess of 50 mph. These winds will create choppy conditions on local lakes and pose hazards for small watercraft, especially along the eastern shores of Flathead Lake. While a few light showers may pass through northwest Montana, little to no rain is expected. Afternoon temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year through mid-week. A broader weather system will move into the western US mid-week. Most of the moisture and storm energy are expected to track well south of our area into the Great Basin. However, the Northern Rockies will still transition to a more active weather pattern. Expect a return of showers and a cooldown to near-average seasonal temperatures through the end of the week. && .AVIATION...A ridge of high pressure remains over the region through Friday, generally favoring VFR conditions. However, the strengthening ridge will favor overnight valley inversions, resulting in areas of dense fog and stratus. A Canadian air mass moving south from Alberta this evening may bring just enough of a light easterly wind to keep the lower atmosphere mixed at KGPI and KMSO, which should prevent low-level fog from developing. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

602 FXUS65 KBOI 151720 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1120 AM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions through the weekend with temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday. - Active pattern returning cooler conditions and precipitation chances Tuesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... Issued 314 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026 under strong ridging as the Pacific high continues to build in over the western CONUS. Dry conditions and warmer than normal temperatures will continue today through Saturday. Clear skies and colder nighttime temperatures will favor the development of frosts and patchy fog this morning and Friday morning. Friday and Saturday could see daytime temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal as the ridge centers right over our area. A weak, dry shortwave trough will dig across the northwest region Saturday, bringing a dry cold front across the area late Saturday. Breezy northwest winds, mainly over upper Treasure Valley and Magic Valley areas, are expected on Saturday with this frontal passage. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued 314 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026 cold front moving across our area Sunday will help drop peak temperatures a few degrees, but will still be 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Monday through Tuesday, our area will come under a strong southwest flow ahead of an incoming Pacific upper low from the Gulf of Alaska. This flow pattern will keep Monday slightly warmer than normal with elevated wind breezes from the south. There is better long-term guidance agreement on the upper low diving south along the northwest and California coasts before moving inland into the Great Basin Tuesday through Thursday. This pattern will return a cooldown and chances of precipitation over our area late Tuesday through Thursday. There remains some uncertainty over the magnitude and coverage extent of this potential multi-day precipitation event next week, especially for Tuesday and Wednesday. For now, next Thursday is looking to have the highest potential for areawide precipitation as the upper low crosses the Great Basin. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 1116 AM MDT THU OCT 15 2026 VFR. Areas of smoke from prescribed burning near KBNO and KMYL. Fog possible again tonight in Eastern Oregon. Surface winds: E-SE 5-10kt in the afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: E-NE 5-10 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds SE 5-15kt. Weekend Outlook...VFR with mostly clear skies on Sat/Sun. Areas of smoke from prescribed burns. Surface winds: E-SE 5-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt mainly east of KBOI on Saturday, then S-SE 5-10 kt Sunday && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JM SHORT TERM...JY LONG TERM....JY

869 FXUS65 KLKN 150701 AAA AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Elko NV 1201 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warming trend today and Friday * Unseasonably warm weather this weekend * A storm system will impact Eastern Nevada early next week * Much cooler Tuesday && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Wednesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level ridge will continue to build over our area, bringing with it mostly sunny skies, drier conditions, and warming temperatures. By Friday afternoon, high temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada will be around five degrees above normal for this time of year. Maximum temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada will remain above seasonal values this weekend. Looking ahead to next week, a polar jet will be making its way to our region, bringing with it the chance for winter weather and colder temperatures. A cold front associated with an upper level trough will reduce our highs back to the 40s and 50s, as well as bring with it the chances for precipitation Tuesday and Wednesday. A colder air mass will also bring our lows down into the 20s and 30s next week. While these lows bring us the slightest bit of hope at building the first snowman of the season, confidence in the timing and intensity of this forecast is still low. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in the forecast for the remainder of the week. Moderate confidence in the forecast for cooling temperatures early next week. Low confidence remains regarding the timing and intensity of the front and its associated precipitation chances early next week. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals for at least the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... A warming trend is expected today and Friday. By Friday afternoon, high temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada will be around five degrees above normal for this time of year. Maximum temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada will remain above seasonal values this weekend. A storm system will impact Eastern Nevada early next week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 90