ZSE Aviation Forecast Discussions

536 FXUS66 KSEW 221527 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 827 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 .Update...Aviation discussion updated. Otherwise, no changes to the main forecast. && .SYNOPSIS... Upper level ridge offshore moving over the area tonight into Tuesday. The ridge will shift east Wednesday. Thermally induced surface trough developing along the coast today moving inland Tuesday night and east of the Cascades Wednesday morning. Very warm temperatures over the interior the next three days. Much cooler Thursday with low level onshore flow. First weather system in two weeks moving through Friday. Upper level low moving over Western Washington Saturday will move east Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Satellite imagery shows low stratus along the coast, moving down the Strait of Juan de Fuca to near Whidbey Island and over the Lower Chehalis Valley at 3 am/10z. Just some high clouds over the remainder of the area. Temperatures were in the upper 40s to near 60. Stratus will not move much further inland and dissipate later this morning. Upper level ridge centered offshore moving east today while a thermally induced surface trough develops along the coast. Low level flow turning offshore warming high temperatures up to mostly the 80s. A few places near the water will stay in the upper 70s. Upper level ridge moving overhead tonight and Tuesday while the thermally induced surface trough remains over Western Washington. Low level offshore flow continuing producing a mild morning, lows in the 50s and lower 60s, and a very warm day with highs in the 80s and lower 90s. Most locations falling just a couple of degrees short of a record high. The best chance for a record breaking high will be at Bellingham (record 82 set in 1992). Upper level ridge weakening Tuesday night with the ridge axis moving east Wednesday. Thermally induced surface trough moving inland Tuesday night and east of the Cascades Wednesday. 850 mb temperatures cooling to plus 14C to plus 16C by Wednesday afternoon with the winds from 850 mb down to the surface turning westerly Wednesday morning. All these variables add up to a weak marine push for the interior with high temperatures dropping 5 to 10 degrees versus Tuesday readings, into the mid 70s to mid 80s. More cooling along the coast with highs in the mid 60s. It will be another mild morning with light flow in the lower levels. Lows Wednesday morning in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Moderate HeatRisk over all but the coastal beaches today and Tuesday. There is a small chance, 10 to 20 percent, of major HeatRisk Tuesday between Seattle and just south of Olympia. Moderate HeatRisk confined to the Central and Southern Puget Sound and Cascade foothills Wednesday. A heat advisory will go into effect today at 11 am/18z until 11 pm/06z Tuesday evening for all lowland locations except the coastal beaches. The area under the heat advisory will decrease Wednesday with Northwest Washington getting dropped from the advisory. The heat advisory for all areas will come to an end at 11 pm/06z Wednesday evening. Felton && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Models remaining consistent with much cooler temperatures Thursday due to low level onshore flow and an approaching frontal system. Front moving through Western Washington Friday morning through midday. Rain starting on the coast as early as Thursday afternoon spreading inland Thursday night. Rain changing to showers behind the front Friday afternoon. Post frontal convergence zone possible over Snohomish and Skagit county Friday afternoon into Friday evening which could leave the Seattle metro dry. Upper level low moving down from the northwest over the top of the area Saturday keeping showers in the forecast. Low kicking out to the east Saturday night making for a dry but mostly cloudy and cool Sunday. There is a good chance that even though Thursday and Friday will be only the 4th and 5th day that it has rained this month in Seattle, the rainfall from this system will put Seattle above normal for rain in June. The monthly normal is 1.45 inches. Current rain total for the month is 1.24 inches. Highs Thursday in the 60s and lower 70s, Friday in the mid 50s to lower 60s, Saturday in the lower to mid 60s and Sunday in the 60s. After getting close to record highs Tuesday, it is possible we could set some record low maximums Friday. The record low maximum for Seattle Friday is 62 degrees set in 1999. Felton && .AVIATION... VFR across the majority of the terminals, with the exception of the coast and Strait of Juan de Fuca, where stratus is bringing LIFR cigs. Stratus layer has started to retreat back into the Pacific, leading to improvement of conditions through the rest of the morning. Widespread VFR conditions expected in the early afternoon. Another round of low ceilings expected along the coast after 03z, with moderate chances (40-55%) for MVFR/IFR cigs and 30-40% chance for LIFR cigs. Breezy northerly winds will develop this afternoon along Puget Sound terminals with moderate chances (30-50%) for gusts up to 15-20 kt. KSEA...VFR conditions today. Breezy NW winds will develop this afternoon after 18z, turning NE in the evening with sustained speeds of 10-12 kt and gusts to 15-18 kt. NE winds will subside late this evening to 4-6 kt. && .MARINE... High pressure will remain over the waters for the majority of the week. It will start weakening on Thursday in the wake of an approaching cold front. The front is expected to move over the waters on Friday and an additional front on Saturday. High pressure will rebuild again over the waters on Sunday. Breezy conditions will develop over Puget Sound this evening through Thursday morning. However, winds are expected to remain below small craft thresholds. Strong northwesterly winds over the Strait of Georgia will also bring breezy conditions to the northern interior waters Tuesday morning and may see an occasional gust to 21 kt. Winds will also increase over the outer coastal waters on Tuesday with a 40-70% chance of small craft winds. Westerly pushes through the Strait of Juan de Fuca will continue throughout the week. Guidance has been consistent with Wednesday being the strongest push, with a 75-95% chance of small craft winds and 25-35% for gales. A weaker push will follow on Thursday, with latest probabilities around 35-55% of small craft winds. The chances for gales on Thursday has trended downwards and latest guidance suggesting a 5% chance or less. The frontal systems on Friday and Saturday will also bring additional chances (50-80%) for small craft winds for the coastal waters and Strait of Juan de Fuca. Seas will remain below 10 ft through Tuesday, before building to 7- 10 ft on Wednesday. Seas will then decrease below 10 ft on Thursday and will build to 10 ft Friday with the incoming frontal system. In addition, seas may get steep at times this week over the coastal waters. 29 && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure aloft combined with a thermally induced surface trough over the area will create elevated fire conditions through Tuesday. In addition to the warm, dry, and conditionally unstable air mass, low level offshore flow will drop minimum relative humidity values into the twenties, and even the teens this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. The upper level ridge and thermally induced trough moving east Wednesday but elevated fire weather concerns could linger. Fuels are approaching critical levels, but the main concern remains dry grasses or shrubs, or dead piles of fuels where brush fires may be able to start (as seen the last few days). Onshore flow will return with improved low level moisture Wednesday night and Thursday. Weather system moving into the area will bring a chance of wetting rains for the first time in a couple of weeks Thursday night and Friday. Cool weather will continue through the weekend. Felton && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades- Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula- Island County-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley- Northern Hood Canal-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-San Juan County-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills. Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for City of Seattle- Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County- Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County- Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area. PZ...None. && $$

525 FXUS66 KPQR 221658 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 958 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Updated Aviation discussion .SYNOPSIS...The hottest days of the week are expected today and Tuesday as high pressure builds over the area, bringing widespread Moderate HeatRisk across interior valleys. Onshore flow will increase Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing a slight cool down, but still remaining hot. A pattern change occurs Thursday through the weekend as an upper-level trough approaches the Pacific Northwest and returns cooler and wetter weather. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday...Satellite imagery and surface observations as of early Monday morning depicts marine stratus along the coast and mostly clear skies elsewhere. As daytime heating progresses today, we`ll see increased mixing and stratus breaking out by late morning. Upper-level ridging will move overhead today, warming temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s across interior valleys which is about 15-20 degrees above normal. Diurnal northerly winds will increase this afternoon, with gusts between 15-20 mph along the coast and I-5 corridor. The warm-up we`re experiencing today will result in widespread Moderate HeatRisk across all interior valleys. This level of heat will affect those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without adequate cooling/hydration. Tonight into early Tuesday morning, overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s for most areas will provide some relief from the heat. However, an exception is from Salem to the Portland/Vancouver Metro Area where Tuesday morning lows between 60 to 65 degrees will result in limited overnight relief. Chances for Tuesday morning lows exceeding 65 degrees across the Portland/Vancouver Metro are around 10-20%, possible due to urban heat island effects. Therefore, there is also a 20-40% chance for Major HeatRisk across the Portland/Vancouver Metro Area today. The Tuesday high temperature forecast has trended a few degrees cooler, but still hot with interior valleys forecast to peak in the low to mid 90s. We`ll have another day of widespread Moderate HeatRisk across interior valleys, with a 30-50% chance for Major HeatRisk across the Portland/Vancouver Metro Area. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 11 AM today to 11 PM Tuesday for the I-5 corridor from Salem to the Cowlitz Valley, along with the Columbia River Gorge and Upper Hood River Valley. Make sure to stay hydrated, wear light-colored and loose-fitted clothing, wear sun protection, and take frequent breaks from the heat. If possible, schedule outdoor plans during the early morning or late evening when temperatures will be less intense. One note about Tuesday`s forecast is that deterministic and ensemble guidance is beginning to show some weak troughing moving into the area as well. It`s a dry trough, so rain is not expected but it will increase onshore flow. Winds on Tuesday shift more west-northwesterly, breeziest in the evening. Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, overnight lows cool down a few degrees compared to tonight due to the increased onshore flow. However, the Portland/Vancouver Metro Area will still have limited overnight relief as it remains warmer than most locations due to urban heat islands effects. Chances for Wednesday morning lows exceeding 65 degrees across the Portland/Vancouver Metro Area are around 15-30%. On Wednesday, the vast majority of ensemble members kick the broader upper-level ridge axis east of the Cascade crest- line during the daytime hours. This should allow for high temperatures to drop a few degrees into the upper 80s to low 90s across interior valleys although the greatest day the day temperature change will likely be felt along the coast and in the some of the coast range valleys as westerly flow continues to increase. The latest NBM gives a 15-35% chance for high temperatures exceeding 95 degrees Wednesday afternoon from Salem to the Portland/Vancouver Metro. At least confidence is very high temperatures begin a noticeable descent back to normal, then below normal, the remainder of the week as the upper-level pattern undergoes a significant shift. Thursday through the start of the weekend the majority of deterministic and ensemble guidance are depicting a upper-level trough of low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest ushering in a cooler and wetter pattern. There still remains some uncertainty with the exact timing, placement, and magnitude of the trough, and thus there is uncertainty regarding exact precipitation amounts. The latest ensembles, including the NBM, are highlighting late Thursday night into Friday morning as best chance (70-95%) for rainfall during this late week period, mainly focused along the coast, Coast Range, Portland/Vancouver Metro through SW Washington, and in the Cascades. Should the core of the upper-level trough/low track overhead Friday and Saturday, post-frontal thunderstorms are another concern we`ll have to watch. At the end of the day, any precipitation be can get this time of year is largely beneficial and we`ll take what we can get during this late week/early weekend period. -10/99 && .AVIATION...Westerly flow aloft with weak upper level ridging will maintain high pressure over the region today. As of 17z, marine stratus is beginning to retreat from the Coast Range valleys and is expected to move offshore by 19z this afternoon. Expect widespread VFR conditions under mostly clear skies to persist inland through the TAF period. Conditions are likely to improve to VFR at coastal terminals around 18-20z, with chances for marine stratus returning to the coast increasing again at KONP after 01z Tuesday. CIGs are most likely to return IFR/LIFR conditions by 03z Tue (50-70% chance) along the central Oregon coast, while the northern OR coast sees lower chances (20-30%) after 04z Tue. North to northwest winds increase this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt possible. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR expected through the TAF period with mostly clear skies. Northwest winds around 5 kt expected to increase to around 10 kt with gusts up to 18 kt later this afternoon. /DH && .MARINE...Northwesterly winds will generally stay under 20 kt through this morning. High pressure strengthens this afternoon into Tuesday, tightening pressure gradients and increasing north- northwesterly winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the waters south of Cape Falcon and beyond 10 NM offshore through 5 AM Tuesday. Thursday to Friday, an approaching frontal system will shift winds more southwesterly, however, there is only a 5-10% chance for widespread and frequent small craft wind gusts of 21 kt or greater. High pressure rebuilds over the weekend, returning northwesterly winds. Seas remain steep and choppy around 5-7 ft through Wednesday, subsiding to 4-5 ft Thursday and Friday. -10 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ108>115-119>123. WA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for WAZ204>210. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ272-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

073 FXUS66 KMFR 221218 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 518 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 .DISCUSSION...An upper ridge drifting from west to east will be in control of conditions to start this week, with daytime highs 10 to 15 degrees above seasonal norms expected across northern California and southern Oregon. This will put the Oregon coast in the low 70s north of Cape Blanco and mid to high 70s to the south. Even with models trending down slightly, most west side valleys look to be in the mid to high 90s. The Umpqua Valley is expected to remain in the low to mid 90s. A Heat Advisory remains in place for most west side valleys and exposed areas for Monday afternoon through Tuesday evening, with the Umpqua Valley excluded. To the east of the Cascades, daytime highs will be in the mid 80s to low 90s. On Tuesday, a short wave trough may bring just enough instability to trigger isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms. For the moment, these slight ~15% chances are present in northern Lake and Klamath counties as well as in Siskiyou County. On Wednesday, the upper ridge`s influence will be reduced as it starts to leave the area. Daytime highs will still be generally 5-10 degrees above normal, but this looks to be below hazardous thresholds. Another shortwave trough may bring another round of isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms east of the Cascades. As this timeframe is currently outside of high-res data, more detail on if and where these thunderstorms may develop will be possible as more accurate data becomes available. Temperatures cool further on Thursday ahead of an upper trough`s arrival. A cold front will reach the area early Friday morning, bringing chances of light showers to the coast, Douglas County, and the Cascades into the afternoon. A round of gusty afternoon and evening winds will be possible east of the Cascades. There`s still some disagreement in long-term imagery if a low pressure system will dig low enough to bring widespread rainfall or if it will stay to the north and minimize precipitation. Models do agree that daytime highs look to fall below seasonal averages on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. -TAD && .AVIATION...22/12Z TAFs...IFR to LIFR levels remain along the Oregon coast as onshore flow is keeping marine stratus in place. This layer looks to break up this morning as gusty northerly winds develop along the coast. As winds ease this evening, marine stratus is expected to return and bring lower flight levels to Brookings and North Bend. Inland areas look to stay at VFR levels through the TAF period. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 1000 PM PDT Sunday, June 21, 2026...North winds will continue to strengthen through Monday evening. The result will be strong northerly winds and very steep seas south of Cape Blanco while steep seas remain across most of the northern waters. There may be isolated areas of gale force gusts through Monday evening for areas south of Cape Blanco. A pattern of northerly winds is likely to continue through mid-week, with winds remaining at Small Craft Advisory strength south of Cape Blanco while fresh swell continues steep seas in the northern outer waters beyond 30 nm from shore. Conditions briefly improve on Thursday. A cold frontal system is likely to bring light rain and a modest increase in fresh west- northwest swell Thursday night into early Saturday. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ024-026. CA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ080>082. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ356-370- 376. && $$ TAD/TAD/TAD

079 FXUS66 KEKA 221936 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1236 PM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure continues to build over the area, bringing warm and dry conditions. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in northern Trinity County Wednesday afternoon. Rain is possible for the North Coast Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend for the interior will continue through Thursday. - Troughing to the north of the area on Wednesday could bring chances of interior thunderstorms. - Cooler temperatures, breezy winds, and a chance of rain is possible Friday. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure continues to build over Northwest California today. Warm interior conditions with high temperatures for most valleys reaching the 90s. The warmest areas, along the Trinity and Klamath River Valleys, could see triple digits. This warming trend is likely to continue through Thursday. Coastal areas continue to see stratus continuing into the afternoon with only partial clearing. More clearing is possible Wednesday and with breezier winds off the coast. Troughing to the north of the area on Tuesday and Wednesday could bring additional chances of thunderstorms to northeast Trinity County. Tuesday, confidence is very low as both moisture and instability remain meager, but an isolated rain shower may be possible. Confidence is very slightly higher Wednesday with a modest increase in moisture, but still chances remain at around 10%. Ensembles are showing high confidence in a upper-level trough moving through the area late Friday. Rain chances have increased for the North Coast with NBM showing around a 50% chance for measurable rain for Humboldt and Del Norte Counties. Wetting rain (over 0.1") is around 50% in coastal Del Norte and 25% over coastal Humboldt. Outside a few sprinkles, the rest of the area is likely to remain dry; but increased cloud cover and breezy winds will drop high temperatures 15 to 20 degrees in the interior. Especially breezy westerly wind in Lake and southern Mendocino Friday are highly likely evening behind the frontal passage. NBM shows over 70% chance for gusts over 30 mph for much of Lake County, while the higher terrain can see gusts over 40 mph. This will need to be watched for a potential fire weather threat. Otherwise, chilly nights, especially for June, are likely behind this frontal passage with mid to high 30s possible for the coldest interior valleys. JB && .AVIATION...(18Z TAFs)...LIFR ceilings being observed at the coastal terminals are likely to be persistent for much of the day. Some lifting to IFR and brief scattering is possible this afternoon. Otherwise, LIFR ceilings and visibilities are possible again tonight for the coast. Inland areas, aside from a few near-coast river valleys, are likely to remain VFR. JB && .MARINE...Northerly winds gradually ease today, especially nearshore and seas are expected to gradually ease as well. Winds continue to diminish Tuesday, but could still be breezy in the lee of Cape Mendocino. Stronger northerly winds with near-gale to gale force gusts briefly return Wednesday. Winds ease again late week as a general troughing pattern sets up. Stronger northerly winds return this weekend. Seas this week remain dominated by wind waves and small long period northwest and southerly swells. JB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ450-475. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

146 FXUS66 KMTR 221754 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1054 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1215 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 - Hazardous beach conditions along the Pacific Coast through Wednesday - Minor HeatRisk with below to near normal temperatures Monday - Warming trend with pockets of moderate HeatRisk possible across the Santa Clara Valley and East Bay Interior Valleys Tuesday through Thursday, peaking Wednesday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1215 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 (Today through Tuesday) Stratus continues to build into the valleys this morning, with the marine layer hovering around 1200 to 1500 ft. Upper-level ridging from the Eastern Pacific will build overhead through the period, with the warming and drier trend continuing. Temperatures today will still be slightly below to near normal with highs in the 60s along the coast, and mid 70s to mid 80s for the interior valleys. Heights continue to build into Tuesday, bringing high temps around 2 to 4 degrees warmer than today, with a pocket of Moderate HeatRisk possible around San Jose. The marine layer, which is currently around 1200 to 1500 feet, will begin to compress through the period as ridging builds overhead. Expect stratus to retreat back to the coast by this afternoon. Slightly less stratus building inland tonight. The more compressed marine layer may allow patchy fog to develop along the coast and in wind-sheltered valleys this morning with a slightly better potential tonight/Tuesday morning. We continue to highlight a long-period southerly swell that will bring a risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through Wednesday. If heading to the coast, stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! For more information, see the BEACHES section. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1215 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 (Tuesday night through next Sunday) While the warming trend is still expected to peak on Wednesday, ridging has been tempered slightly, and projected high temperatures are slightly lower than previously expected. Highs will still climb into the 60s to low 70s along the coast, with upper 70s to near 90 for interior locations. A few pockets of Moderate HeatRisk are still possible, with the best potential near San Jose again. Slightly cooler but still warm temperatures for Thursday with an upper-level trough approaching the West Coast. Highs are expected to be about 1 to 3 degrees cooler from their peak on Wednesday. The cooling trend will become more noted Friday into Saturday as upper-level troughing settles the western US. The marine layer will also deepen with the troughing, and drizzle will be possible, especially along the coast. Onshore winds will increase, peaking Friday into Saturday with a frontal passage, bringing gusts 30 to 40 mph across ridgelines and through gaps and passes. A warming trend is expected to favored to begin by late weekend, but overall confidence is low as there is quite a large spread in model guidance this far out in regards to the progression of the upper trough to the east and ridging trying to creep back in from the eastern Pacific. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1042 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Erosion of marine stratus toward the coast will continue over the next few hours and nearly all terminals should be VFR in the next 1-2 hours. Main exception is KHAF where low clouds are forecast to linger through the day. Clouds moving inland again after 01Z Tue with earlier onset near the coast and later onset farther inland. Confidence in lower cigs is lowest at LVK where the threat has been covered with a TEMPO group rather than prevailing. Expect typical diurnal winds across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions will prevail into the evening hours with typical increase in winds during the late afternoon. Expect low stratus to begin moving back in after 03z with IFR conditions forecast to set in again after 06z. Similar to today, should see some improvement by mid morning with a return to VFR conditions again by midday. Moderate confidence in timing of MVFR/IFR conditions. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Increased chance of BKN cigs to linger in the afternoon hours. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...While low stratus is currently persisting at OAK, it should scatter out in the next hour or so. Expect VFR conditions to then prevail at both terminals into the early evening. MVFR conditions return after 03z Tue with IFR cigs forecast again at OAK after 06z. NW winds 5-10 knots through the period for SJC, W winds 5-15 knots for OAK. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus has already cleared SNS and should clear MRY in the next hour or two as the marine layer continues to erode. VFR conditions will then prevail through the afternoon. MVFR to IFR cigs move back in after 02z and persist through the night, with restrictions persisting through late morning again Tuesday. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 1042 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Gentle to moderate winds will persist through the middle of the week. Fresh to strong breezes resume over the northern waters Wednesday and Thursday, expanding southwards towards the end of the week. Seas remain moderate through Wednesday, with long period southwest swell persisting through the extended forecast. && .BEACHES... Updated at 1215 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 Long period southerly swell at around 14 to 16 seconds will increase to 17 to 19 seconds by the middle of the week as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through Wednesday afternoon. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Wednesday afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Slagle LONG TERM....Slagle AVIATION...Manning MARINE...Manning Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

894 FXUS66 KOTX 221720 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1020 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures and dry weather continues. Wednesday will be our warmest day over the next week with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. - Locally breezy winds will impact portions of Central WA Monday morning. - Weather changes arrive late next week with cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and a chance of showers. && .SYNOPSIS... A warm and dry pattern will last into mid-week as a ridge of high pressure shifts inland over the region. The pattern shifts toward the end of the week and into next weekend as a weather system delivers cooler temperatures and a chance of showers. && .DISCUSSION... Monday through Wednesday: The forecast remains on track for a high pressure ridge to shift over the region early this week, keeping conditions warm and dry. Most of the region will climb into the Moderate HeatRisk category by Wednesday as temperatures rise into the upper 80s to mid 90s. Moderate HeatRisk affects those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without adequate cooling or hydration. As surface temperatures warm up and upper levels cool ahead of an incoming trough, elevated instability may bring isolated mountain showers and thunderestorms and increased fire weather concerns. Latest runs of the NBM show a 10-15 percent chance of thunderstorms across the Cascades, Northern Mountains, and ID Panhandle Wednesday afternoon. Thursday through Saturday: Ensembles are still in strong agreement on a significant pattern change taking place over the second half of the week and into the weekend with an upper level trough dropping into the region. Consensus is growing among ensemble members on the timing of the trough with most model clusters showing the trough moving over the region on Friday. Differences remain on the strength of the trough and how far south it will track, but there is high confidence on a shift to a troughing pattern of some sort on Friday. Thursday will likely stay warm ahead of the trough with high temperatures only 3-5 degrees cooler than Wednesday. Heading into Friday, spread in the temperature forecast has decreased substantially since yesterday, indicating higher confidence in the timing of the trough`s arrival as well as the arrival of cooler temperatures. Friday and Saturday will be nearly 20 degrees cooler than those on Thursday with highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Gusty winds are inevitable with such a dramatic cooldown, so expect a windy day or two toward the end of the week. In addition to cooler temperatures and gusty winds, this system will bring widespread chances for showers. Stay tuned for more info in the coming days! /Fewkes && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: Conditions at regional air fields will continue at VFR levels for the next 24 hours. Breezy north winds will continue for the Okanogan Valley and Central WA including KOMK and KMWH with gusts to 15-25 knots through 22Z. Winds will subside Monday afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Confidence remains high for VFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast period. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 84 52 85 54 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 82 53 85 56 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 82 50 84 51 87 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 89 56 90 58 94 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 84 49 87 52 89 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 80 54 83 58 86 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 80 51 83 54 87 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 89 56 91 57 94 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 88 64 89 64 92 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 87 58 90 59 92 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

666 FXUS66 KPDT 221737 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1037 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate HeatRisk conditions develop today through Wednesday as ridge moves over the area. - Dry air with breezy conditions developing will bring elevated fire weather conditions through Thursday. - Wetter pattern expected by the weekend with oncoming trough, bringing widespread showers across the region with isolated thunderstorms along the Eastern Mountains and southern parts of the Blues. && .DISCUSSION... Satellite and radar continue to show the expected dry and clear conditions across the area, as an oncoming ridge approaches the region. Deterministic models in the short-term are agreeable that the ridge axis will make its way over the region Tuesday & Wednesday. In response, a warming trend will continue today through mid-week (>90% chance) with temperatures peaking in the low to upper 90s throughout the lower elevation/populated areas. Widespread moderate heat risk will develop (value of `2`), bringing heat threats to the most vulnerable to heat events. NBM advertises virtually no chances of triple digits occurring, coming off of 0-20% chances from a few days ago. Regardless, very warm and hot temperatures will develop and preparation may be needed to stay cool. Dry air with minimum relative humidities in the 10-21% range will prevail through at least Thursday (70-90% chance) with breezy to locally windy conditions developing from an oncoming shortwave arriving in the midweek (60-80% chance). Breezy to locally windy gusts of 25-35 mph are expected to develop Thursday (50-70% chance) situated in the Columbia Basin & The Kittitas Valley. In conjunction with the dry air still lingering, elevated/critical fire weather conditions could develop across the Columbia Basin & Kittitas/Yakima region Thursday, and to a lesser and more isolated extent, on Wednesday. By Friday, improving overnight recoveries and minimum relative humidities. This will bring some relief from the dry air and warmer temperatures and bring some rain showers across the region. Current ensemble guidance is a bit disagreeable with the exact timing/amplitude of the system, but they all point to a trough/cold front occurring by the Friday- Saturday timeframe. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Winds will be light with diurnally/terrain driven wind shifts. Lawhorn/82 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 88 53 91 55 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 89 58 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 92 55 94 58 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 90 59 92 61 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 91 55 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 87 56 89 59 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 88 49 89 50 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 85 50 89 53 / 0 0 0 10 GCD 89 48 94 50 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 93 62 95 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for WAZ024. OR...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ041. && $$ DISCUSSION...95 AVIATION...82

417 FXUS65 KREV 221950 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1250 PM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm and dry through Thursday with moderate HeatRisk. * Increasing winds with fire weather concerns Friday & Saturday. * Cooler temperatures for the weekend with light showers possible. && .DISCUSSION... * Warm temperatures expected through Thursday. However the latest guidance has backed off the intensity some such that HeatRisk is mainly moderate in lower elevations with only very isolated Major on Tuesday. We`ll likely see some buildups over the high terrain each afternoon, but at this point the chance of t-storms is low, generally 5% or less. * Pattern gets more interesting starting Thursday, as a series of deepening troughs moves into the west. Primary concern is wind and fire weather. Deterministic models are showing potential for 30-45 knots at 700mb Friday-Saturday and NBM translating that to a 40-60% chance of peak surface gusts above 40 MPH along Hwy 395 eastward into Nevada. Friday & Saturday have a hearty combination of low humidity and long duration (4-6 hour) breezy winds, except Tahoe/NE Cal where humidities are a bit higher. Thursday could be a sneaky day up in NE California with 2-3 hour period of critical winds before humidity rises. * Secondary impacts include shower potential Friday & Saturday along with much cooler temps Saturday & Sunday. On the shower front, we`re looking at mainly Tahoe up into NE California with a 20-50% chance of measurable precip each day Friday & Saturday, while wetting rain probabilities (0.1") are lower generally 10-20%. Isolated t-storms possible too with NBM indicating 5-15% chance of thunder each day in these same areas. Snow lines are high at first, but on Saturday within the cooler air aloft, they drop down to 8,000-9,000`. So we can`t rule out for higher peaks from Tahoe northward to the Warner Mtns if we end up with a band of heavier precip there could be some snow in the mix. * Well below normal temps for the upcoming weekend are looking increasingly likely, with NBM trending cooler with each run lately. At RNO there`s a 60% chance of remaining below 80F Saturday and a 70% chance Sunday. Impressive for late June. At night, Sierra valleys will likely get some frost Sunday & Monday mornings, with 60%+ odds of temps falling to 35F or less. Even Minden seeing 10% chance of meeting that mark. * Pattern looks to rebound to more of a summer mode next week, with guidance indicating a steady climb in max temps and a return of typical zephyr breezes. No significant heat, wind, or precip signals in the week two outlooks. -Chris && .AVIATION... * Warm and dry VFR weather through Wednesday with typical west/northwest afternoon and evening breezes. Gusts on the order of 20-25 knots. * A few buildups over the high terrain each afternoon, but chances for showers and storms are less than 5%. * Density altitude may be a factor for some aircraft especially Tuesday with the week`s hottest temperatures. * Can`t entirely rule out fog at TRK 10-15z/Tuesday. GFS LAMP guidance only showing one hour of reduced visibilities suggesting patchy/shallow nature, with only light rainfall in the vicinity over the past 5 days. -Chris && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

228 FXUS66 KSTO 221608 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 908 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry this week with minor to moderate HeatRisk. Breezy onshore winds each day will provide relief for the Delta/Sacramento Area. - A weather system moving across the Pacific NW into the Great Basin will bring breezy onshore winds Friday into Saturday with a few showers north, followed by the potential for a north wind event Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Warm and dry conditions expected today into Wednesday as ridging remains in control of the large scale pattern over the area. Above normal temperatures will rule with 90s to low 100s across the Valley. This will lead to minor to moderate HeatRisk but no concerns for heat headlines. Delta Breeze will continue to bring evening relief thru the Delta into the Sacramento area. Min RHs will be in the teens to low 20s but wind will remain below RFW criteria. Thursday is a transition day as cooling trend begins and continues into the weekend. A deep trough from the Gulf of Alaska will slowly dig into the Pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend and gradually move east into the Great Basin. This will serve to increase onshore flow for our area Friday into Saturday with breezy southerly winds across the area. This will bring a bit of moisture with it with the chance for a few showers across far northern portions of the area and southern Cascades. At this time, does not look like a big signal for convective activity but will keep an eye on trends. As trough departs, pressure gradient strengthens, leading to the potential for a north wind event Sunday into Monday. Still some uncertainty in ensemble solutions with timing and strength of the trough but will need to monitor for the need for any fire weather headlines as we get closer to the weekend. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Winds 5 to 10 kts in the Valley into 06z Tuesday before becoming light and variable overnight outside of winds through the Delta to the Sacramento sites which will gusts up to 20-25 kts until 12z Tuesday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

712 FXUS65 KMSO 221856 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1256 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Another round of showers and isolated thunderstorms along the Continental Divide today. - Warming and drying trend this week, especially for north- central Idaho. - Cooler and wet conditions expected this coming weekend. Today (Monday), the low-pressure system over Alberta has already produced scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the afternoon and generally move west to east across western Montana, mainly for locations north of Interstate 90. A warming and drying trend is still expected for Tuesday through Thursday, but the ridge of high pressure does not appear to be as strong as previous forecasts. The warmest and driest conditions will be for north-central Idaho, where temperatures will top out in the mid to upper 90s for elevations below 3,000 feet. A few weak weather systems will pass through the ridge, bringing some cloud cover and a few showers, keeping temperatures slightly cooler than previously expected across western Montana. Temperatures will still be a few degrees above average. A cold front associated with this weekend`s low-pressure system will move through the Northern Rockies on Friday. Then, the low- pressure will settle over the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies during the weekend, causing widespread precipitation and much cooler temperatures. Afternoon highs will run 20 or more degrees below average for this time of year. As the low spins over western Montana, snow levels are expected to drop to around 6,500 to 7,000 feet by Sunday and Monday mornings. If you have plans to recreate in the backcountry this weekend, plan for very wet and cold conditions, especially along the Continental Divide and in Glacier National Park. If possible, consider postponing your backcountry trips. While forecast confidence remains high for a shift to cooler and wetter conditions, precipitation amounts continue to vary day to day. Currently, the most likely scenario features totals ranging from 1 to 2 inches for the terrain along the Continental Divide, and 0.50 to 1 inch for locations along and west of the Highway 93 Corridor. Stay tuned to the latest forecast updates. && .AVIATION... A low pressure system moving eastward along the USA-Canada border is triggering showers and isolated thunderstorms along and north of the I-90 corridor in northwest Montana. Thunderstorms will focus along and east of the US-93 corridor through 22/2200Z, with activity moving east of the divide thereafter. Lightning and brief moderate rain are the primary storm threats. North-northwest winds will strengthen by mid afternoon, with gusts of 15-25kts across southwest Montana and Lemhi County. Skies will clear this evening into Tuesday morning as high pressure settles into the region. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

330 FXUS65 KBOI 222011 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 211 PM MDT Mon Jun 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gradually hotter and drier through Wednesday. Only slight cooling but still dry Thursday. - Slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday south of the ID/NV border, but outflow winds may reach southern Owyhee and Twin Falls Counties. - Major change beginning Friday with arrival of a cold front and showers, followed by gusty winds, more showers and chance of thunderstorms through Sunday. Snow possible as low as 6500 to 7000 feet MSL Saturday night and Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Wednesday Night/... Generally clear and gradually hotter through Wednesday as a low-amplitude Pacific upper ridge comes inland. Slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms Tuesday and Wednesday south of the ID/NV border, but outflow winds may reach southern Owyhee and Twin Falls Counties. Light east winds Tuesday, then light to moderate west or northwest winds Wednesday. && .LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/... Warm and dry conditions will continue on Thursday. A shortwave trough will dig across our area early Thursday. This pattern will steer some subtropical moisture into the region, bringing scattered showers/thunderstorms over the central ID mountains and near the NV border Thursday afternoon/evening. Guidance confidence remains strong on a strong upper low digging into the region from the Gulf of Alaska Friday through the weekend. This system has potential to bring significant precipitation Friday and over the weekend. A cold frontal passage is expected on Friday, bringing widespread showers/thunderstorms in the afternoon/evening. Saturday and Sunday will mainly see showers/ thunderstorms over higher terrain on the ID side. Overall, there remains uncertainty over the exact track of this approaching low, but the weekend through Monday will have good potential for wetting rains and temperatures cooling down to 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Snow is possible above 6500 feet MSL north and 7000 feet MSL south Saturday night and Sunday morning. && .AVIATION /18Z Monday through Tuesday/... Issued 1124 AM MDT MON JUN 22 2026 VFR with clear skies. Surface winds: N-NW 5-15 kt this afternoon with gusts 20- 25 kt mainly east of KBOI. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR with clear skies. Surface winds: NW 7-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt during the afternoon, before lowering to 5-10 kt in the evening after 02Z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....JY AVIATION.....JY

984 FXUS65 KLKN 221734 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1034 AM PDT Mon Jun 22 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warming trend today and Tuesday * Moderate risk for heat-related illnesses in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada Tuesday afternoon * Elevated fire weather conditions in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening Thursday and Friday * Much cooler this weekend && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A ridge of high pressure will build northward across the Silver State this afternoon through Tuesday. A warming trend is expected today and Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, high temperatures will be around ten degrees above normal for this time of year. This will result in a moderate risk of heat-related illnesses in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada Tuesday afternoon. Although heat events like this are relatively common and happen many times a year, heat-related impacts are possible for those new to the area if simple precautions are not taken. Plan to take action to reduce time outdoors, drink plenty of water, and remain in air-conditioned buildings. Heat-sensitive groups, such as the elderly, young children, and those with chronic ailments may need assistance to avoid heat-related illnesses. Here are probabilities of maximum temperature of 95 degrees of higher for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada on Tuesday, June 23rd, 2026: Battle Mountain - 97% Winnemucca - 96% Crescent Valley - 96% Elko - 95% Eureka - 95% Carlin - 95% West Wendover - 85% Wells - 85% Tonopah - 75% Spring Creek - 50% Zonal flow aloft is anticipated Wednesday. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening Thursday and Friday due to west wind gusts near 35 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as six percent. A cyclone aloft will meander around the Pacific Northwest this weekend. This will result in much cooler temperatures this weekend. By Sunday afternoon, high temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada will be about ten degrees below seasonal values. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding a warming trend today and Tuesday. High forecast confidence in a moderate risk for heat-related illnesses in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada Tuesday afternoon. Moderate forecast confidence regarding elevated fire weather conditions in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening Thursday and Friday. Moderate forecast confidence in much cooler weather this weekend. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through at least the next 24 hours. South wind gusts near 20 knots are expected at KELY and KTPH this afternoon and this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... A warming trend is expected today and Tuesday. By Tuesday afternoon, high temperatures will be around ten degrees above normal for this time of year. Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated in Eastern Nevada each afternoon and evening Thursday and Friday due to west wind gusts near 35 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as six percent. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ 87