191 FXUS66 KSEW 111122 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 322 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 .SYNOPSIS... An atmospheric river will produce periods of moderate to heavy rain through Monday night. This rain, along with high snow levels, will bring rises on many area rivers. Flooding is expected on the Skokomish River. Strong high pressure then builds into the region by the middle of the week, bringing a stretch of dry conditions. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Periods of moderate to heavy rain with snow levels above the passes will continue today into Monday as the axis of an atmospheric river settles over the CWA. Heaviest precip is expected in the Olympics and the north/central Cascades. Rises are expected on the rivers with the Skokomish expected to reach flood stage later today. More detail can be found in the hydrology discussion section. Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue into tonight. The windiest period looks to be late this afternoon into tonight...with gusts of 35 to 45 mph for the North Interior and coastal areas. Wet conditions continue into Monday with the axis of heaviest precipitation expected across the northern half of the forecast area. A drying trend will commence Monday night into Tuesday as upper ridging builds in from the south and shoves the moisture up into British Columbia. As is typical with mild atmospheric rivers, temperatures will remain several degrees above seasonal averages. Near record high temperatures are possible on Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Models dissipate a front as it approaches the area on Wednesday and bumps up against 500 millibar heights in the 575 to 580 decameter range. High amplitude ridging then builds just offshore for the remainder of the week for dry conditions. 27 && .AVIATION... Frontal boundary stalled over the northern portion of the area through Monday. Southwesterly flow aloft becoming westerly tonight. Southeasterly flow in the lower levels. VFR ceilings over the interior with MVFR along the coast and over the Kitsap Peninsula. Areas of LIFR ceilings along the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Ceilings lowering over the interior to MVFR later tonight into Monday. KSEA...VFR ceilings lowering to MVFR after 03z Monday. Visibility around 5 sm in rain at times. Southeast wind 6 to 10 knots. Felton && .MARINE... A front over the northern portion of the waters will remain stationary into Monday. The front will lift north Monday night or early Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds over the waters. High pressure remains in place through the remainder of next week. Small craft advisory conditions today increasing to gales tonight then easing back to small craft advisory Monday for the coastal waters, Entrances to the Strait, Admiralty Inlet and the Northern Inland waters. Winds increasing to small craft advisory speeds tonight for Puget Sound and Hood Canal. Winds easing all areas Monday night into Tuesday. Light winds over the waters Tuesday night through Thursday. Seas 12 to 18 feet today building to 14 to 19 feet tonight. Seas subsiding to 12 to 15 feet Monday and to 9 to 12 feet Monday night. Seas remaining in the 9 to 12 foot range Tuesday and Wednesday before subsiding again to 6 to 8 feet Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY...Skokomish river on the rise early this morning and a flood warning has been issued. The river is forecast to reach flood stage this afternoon and crest just above moderate flood stage Monday morning. Forecast has the frontal boundary a little further north this morning versus Saturday. This has lowered the storm total precipitation for the Central Washington Cascades down to 1 to 2.5 inches which also lowers the flooding threat for the rivers flowing out of the Cascades in King and Snohomish county. Still showing storm total precipitation of 3 to 5 inches in the North Cascades and Olympics. Snow levels rising to near 7000 feet by Monday. No changes to the current flood outlook this morning. If the trends continue look for King and Snohomish county to get dropped out of the the outlook. Felton && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Flood Watch from 10 AM PST this morning through late tonight for Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST Monday for Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for Admiralty Inlet-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM PST Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM PST Monday for Puget Sound and Hood Canal. && $$

359 FXUS66 KPQR 111141 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 330 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A slow-moving frontal boundary will bring periods of light rain to southwest Washington and along the far north Oregon coast now through Monday morning, while the rest of Oregon stays dry with light winds and high clouds. A very strong high pressure system will strengthen and remain anchored over the Pacific Northwest Tuesday through next weekend. This will result in a prolonged stretch of dry weather with abnormally mild temperatures and light winds. Expect at least 6 to 8 consecutive dry days in a row. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Saturday night...Aside from periods of light rain over portions of southwest Washington and the far north Oregon coast today through Sunday night/Monday morning, the weather forecast over the next seven days is highlighted by a prolonged stretch of dry and calm conditions with above normal temperatures for this time of year. This is in response to an anomalously strong high pressure system that models and their ensembles continue to suggest will remain locked in place through next weekend, while also becoming stronger Monday through Wednesday. This appears to be due to the development of an omega blocking pattern on the synoptic scale, resulting in warmer and drier conditions across the western U.S. 500 mb heights look to peak near 590 dm over northern California and southern Oregon, and near 585 dm over northern Oregon. Note these values are around the 99th percentile compared to climatology, which means high pressure of this magnitude is quite rare this time of year, especially given the extended duration. It is not clear exactly when the omega blocking pattern will break down and precipitation will return to the area, however some model guidance is beginning to hint on a potential pattern change back to wetter conditions Jan. 21-23. Until then, expect more of the same each day with varying degrees of cloud cover, light winds, and mild temperatures with afternoon highs running anywhere from 5-15 degrees above normal for this time of year depending on location. The NBM suggests highs will range between 50-60 degrees each day this week across the lowlands, except low to mid 60s in the Oregon Cascade foothills Tuesday through Saturday. The coolest daytime temperatures will occur in portions of the central and southern Willamette Valley where chances for fog and low clouds each night/morning may limit daytime heating and keep highs closer to 50 degrees. The reason the Oregon Cascade foothills will likely be warmest is due to a combination of more hours of sunshine and the fact that these elevations are high enough to poke above a strong low-level temperature inversion that will remain in place through the week, thus tapping into relatively warmer air aloft. Locations such as Oakridge will feel more like spring rather than mid January. Overall, expect ideal conditions for outdoor work and recreation through the week. The only exception is for potential degraded air quality within the Willamette Valley due to a prolonged multiday stretch of stagnant air and very low vertical mixing heights, which helps trap air pollutants near the surface. State air quality agencies highly recommend that no outdoor burning occur and that residential wood burning devices be limited as much as possible. Check with your local burn agency for any current restrictions that may be in effect for your area. People with respiratory illness should follow their physician`s advice for dealing with high levels of air pollution during periods of stagnant air, especially if an Air Quality Alert is in effect for your area. To see if an Air Quality Alert is in effect for your area, go to www.weather.gov/pqr and left-click your location on the homepage map display. Alternatively, you could also type your location into the search bar found on the top-left hand side of the homepage. From there, you will see an Air Quality Alert listed at the top if one is in effect for your location; you can click the alert to read more details if applicable. -23 && .AVIATION...Westerly flow aloft will continue over the next 24 hours as high pressure dominates northwest Oregon. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary remains in place across southwest WA and the far north Oregon coast. This front will maintain periods of light rain at KAST through Sunday night/Monday morning while the remainder of Oregon stays dry. Winds will remain light throughout the TAF period, generally 5-10 kt or less. The main exception is at KAST where southerly winds will increase slightly late this afternoon with gusts up to 19-22 kt. Main flight impacts will be associated with potential fog and low stratus within portions of the Willamette Valley Sunday night into Monday morning, however confidence is low regarding exactly where and when fog will develop. Similar to the past two nights, broken high clouds will be in place Sunday night with little change to the weather pattern. This setup has generally resulted in patchy fog and fluctuating visibilities at KHIO, KSLE, and KUAO. KHIO has the highest change for fog of any TAF site, with probabilities reaching 50% for surface visibilities below 1 SM by 09-12z Monday. Probabilities for fog range between 20-30% at KUAO, KSLE and KEUG. Otherwise expect VFR flight conditions to continue, except at KAST where MVFR cigs below 3000 ft become increasingly likely by 16z Sunday. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR flight conditions are expected to continue through 12z Monday as high clouds continue. Light southeast winds throughout the TAF period, sustained between 5-8 kt. -23 && MARINE..Seas will become increasingly steep and hazardous Sunday morning through Sunday evening as a long period southwesterly swell develops, pushing significant wave heights up to 14 to 17 ft due to a combination of the increasing southwesterly swell and increasing southerly wind waves. Seas will most likely be highest over the northern waters to the north of Cape Falcon where southerly winds will be strongest, gusting as high as 30-35 kt. Note gale force wind gusts of 34-35 kt are expected to be isolated and infrequent, but still something to keep in mind. With the increasing seas and winds, a Hazardous Seas Warning is now effect for all marine zones today through Monday afternoon, except the southern inner waters (PZZ253) where seas are expected to stay slightly lower. Note this zone has a Small Craft Advisory in effect, as seas will still be hazardous to small craft. Seas are expected to peak near 15 ft over the main channel of the Columbia River Bar. Winds weaken significantly across the coastal waters Monday night into Tuesday and remain light through Wednesday. Seas will decrease during that time as well, most likely falling below 10 ft by late Tuesday. -23 && .BEACH HAZARDS...There is a high threat of sneaker waves at the coast through Monday due to a continued long-period southwesterly to westerly swell. Sneaker waves can create potentially life- threatening conditions as waves may run farther up the beach than expected. These waves can easily catch people off guard and cause beachgoers to be knocked off their feet and pulled out into cold ocean waters. Never turn your back to the ocean. Caution should be used when in or near the water, and those with children should be especially watchful. Sneaker waves can lift or roll large, heavy logs or rocks which can lead to serious death or injury. Keep off rocks, logs, and jetties near the waterline on beaches. -23 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for ORZ109>111- 114>118. WA...Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for WAZ205-206. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for PZZ210. Hazardous Seas Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for PZZ251-252-273. Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ251-252. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ253. Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ271-272. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Monday for PZZ273. Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

882 FXUS66 KMFR 111124 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 324 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 .DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)... Key Points: * High pressure aloft remains likely through this next week - Leading to dry precipitation-free conditions - Morning fog/freezing fog possible for next several days - Air stagnation advisories extend through Friday morning * Above normal temps will be near record values late next week Further Details: Not to sound like a broken record, but forecast trends remain the same. There is still excellent agreement between ensemble and deterministic data that high pressure will dominate the region through next week and potentially into early next week. This will result in widespread dry weather. The biggest impact will be fog and freezing fog the next several mornings along with a stable airmass that will see little change. The latter of which has resulted in continued air stagnation advisories which have been extended through Friday morning. Per satellite, fog and freezing fog has once again developed across the Rogue and Illinois valleys, albeit not as widespread as yesterday morning. Visibility ranges from a quarter mile to a mile. A freezing fog advisory remains in place for the aforementioned areas to account for the threat of limited visibility this morning. Fog and freezing fog will continue to be the trend going forward and the main weather impact, especially westside valleys. This will coincide with air stagnation as the airmass goes unchanged for the next week. Some of our official climate sites may have high temperatures near record values later this next week as above normal temperatures cone to fruition. The Extreme Forecast Index from the European model continues to show maximum temperatures approaching the higher end of the spectrum relative to the reforecast analysis. -Guerrero && .AVIATION (12Z TAFs)... Another morning of fog and freezing fog has developed, impacting mainly KMFR this morning. Expecting things to clear out later this morning with widespread VFR conditions likely this afternoon, but there may be some high clouds across the region this afternoon. Expecting conditions to deteriorate again tonight with fog returning for some westside valleys, impacting mainly KMFR and KRBG. Light and variable wind speeds will be common through this cycle for inland terminals, but KOTH will experience more of a dominate south to southeast wind direction. -Guerrero && .MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Sunday, January 11, 2026...Breezy south winds and building seas continue as a west-southwest swell moves through the waters. As a result, steep seas for most areas from Gold Beach northward will persist through this afternoon. Steep seas expand to all areas this evening as another, longer period swell (peaking around 12 to 14 ft at 15 to 17 seconds) moves into the waters late today and persists through Monday night. Conditions improve Tuesday as seas lower to below 10 ft by Tuesday morning. Another long period swell (lower than the first) builds into the waters late Tuesday into Wednesday, so seas will remain swell dominated through early Wednesday. Meanwhile, northerly winds increase on Wednesday as the pattern transitions to a summer-like pattern under a thermal trough that persists through the latter half of the week. Swell gradually subsides Thursday, but seas transition to wind wave dominated seas under gusty north winds. Expect another round of steep to very steep and hazardous seas through the latter half of the week. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Beach Hazards Statement from 7 AM PST this morning through Monday afternoon for ORZ021-022. Air Stagnation Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for ORZ023-024-026- 029>031. Freezing Fog Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for ORZ024- 026. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

039 FXUS66 KEKA 110846 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1246 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Cool conditions will steadily warm through late next week. The inland valleys will see night and morning low clouds and fog along more limited warming. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure continues to build into northern California, although it remains flat with a weather system moving into the Pacific Northwest. As a result, some high clouds will continue to move over portions of the area through the weekend. Many of the interior valleys could see low clouds each morning and into early this week. It is possible that some low clouds may form along the coast, as well. These low clouds and temperature inversions in the valleys are expected to keep temperatures cool, even though the low clouds may clear out by the late morning and afternoon. No rain is expected. This coming week, high pressure is forecast to strengthen which will bring warm air aloft. This will strengthen the valley inversions keeping fog and low clouds in many of them. This may also keep high temperatures in the colder valleys from warming too much. Dry weather will likely continue through this coming week. Ensembles are hinting at a small chance for some precipitation in the long range (beyond 7 days out). MKK && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFs)...VFR with occasional cirrostratus is expected to continue tonight and Sunday. Winds to remain light and variable at forecast terminals through the period. Chance for fog and mist with partial or full sky obscuration increases for coastal terminals (KCEC and KACV) Sunday evening and overnight with shallow humid layer building nearshore. Confidence in this remains low due to slight offshore flow which may keep stratus from impacting coastal terminals. Otherwise, interior fog and LIFR ceilings in the valleys of Trinity, Humboldt and northern Mendocino counties will clear out by noon on Sunday. && .MARINE...A long period westerly swell will build Sunday through Sunday evening, peaking around 12 ft at 16 seconds by Monday morning. The swell will not be very steep, however swell heights over 10 feet will pose a danger to mariners operating small vessels and an advisory for hazardous seas remains in effect. Light to moderate northerlies return on Monday and increase by Tue. Gusts over 25 kts will become increasingly likely (over 70% chance) Tue into Wed with lesser chances (30%) for gale gusts > 34 kt, mostly over the outer waters and around Cape Mendocino. Elevated steep northerly waves in combination with a decaying westerly swell will continue on Thu and seas should remain hazardous for small craft. && .BEACH HAZARDS...On Sunday, another long period westerly swell originating from a low near the Aleutians fills in at around 7 ft at 20 seconds and peaks around 12 ft at 16 seconds. A Beach Hazard Statement has been issued for this moderate sneaker wave threat late Sunday morning through Monday afternoon. Stay much farther back from the ocean and avoid steep beaches and jetties. Remember, never turn your back on the ocean! JB && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM PST this morning through Monday afternoon for CAZ101-103-104-109. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PST Monday for PZZ450-455. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST Tuesday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

569 FXUS66 KMTR 111111 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 311 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1227 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 - High and dry pattern with offshore flow and cold overnight conditions - Hazardous beach conditions at all Pacific Coast beaches today and tomorrow and again throughout the week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1227 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 (Today and Monday) High pressure in the Intermountain West and a coastal trough off the California Coast will be responsible for our weather for the next week. Calm, clear, and cool conditions will allow for efficient radiational cooling - this is why we have been cold the past three mornings. Everything seems to be on track with temperatures generally within two degrees of the forecast. As such, cold weather products are in effect through 9AM this morning. Patchy radiational fog will be another hazard through the morning with STS just developing it as I was typing this. Today and tomorrow will be very similar with afternoon temperatures rising to 5 degrees above normal and overnight temperatures falling to 5 degrees below normal. Hazardous beach conditions return to all Pacific Coast beaches today with an increased risk for strong rip currents, sneaker waves, and large shore break. If you go to the beach: remain out of the water, stay off of waterside infrastructure such as jetties, piers, and rocks, and never turn your back on the ocean! Bonus: high clouds streaming in from the Eastern Pacific Ocean will continue to make for mesmerizing sunrises and sunsets. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1227 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 (Tuesday through Saturday) Global ensemble clusters are in agreement that an anomalously high amplitude upper-level longwave ridge and its axis will dominate our long term forecast. This will result in a warming trend of 10 degrees, with minimum temperatures slower to respond than maximum temperatures. No records are forecast to be in jeopardy. Unfortunately, periods of hazardous beach conditions with an increased risk for strong rip currents, sneaker waves, and large breaking waves are expected through the week, coinciding with great beach weather. If you go to the beach: remain out of the water, stay off of waterside infrastructure such as jetties, piers, and rocks, and never turn your back on the ocean! Rain is still going to have to wait for beyond the long term forecast. The 20th continues to be the earliest possible return with the ECMWF and GFS showing some form of troughing returning, but agreement is terrible not only between the deterministic solutions but also across their ensemble members. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 311 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 Fog is being reported at STS with LIFR conditions expected to continue through the late morning hours. with moderate confidence that reduced visibilities return late tonight. High cloud cover is blocking the view of the fog bank on satellite imagery, but nearby observations suggest that the impacts are generally limited to the STS vicinity. The rest of the region is expected to remain VFR through the TAF period. Winds will be generally light with offshore flow across the interior valleys and a gentle onshore wind developing in the afternoon across most of the region. Vicinity of SFO... VFR through the TAF period. Winds will be around 5 knots at strongest, developing from the northeast this morning before backing to a northwest flow in the afternoon, then to the west tonight. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR through the TAF period. Breezy drainage winds at SNS continue through the morning hours, otherwise winds remain light with variable flow during the day and drainage winds developing overnight. && .MARINE... (Today through Friday) Issued at 311 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 Expect mostly light winds and swell today. A longer period and larger northwesterly builds this afternoon producing a rough sea state through early Tuesday. Seas rebuild in the late work week. Winds stay mostly light to moderate through the week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 112 PM PST Sat Jan 10 2026 A Beach Hazard Statement will go into effect at 4PM PST Sunday and continue through Monday evening for all Pacific Coast beaches from Sonoma to Monterey County. A longer period moderate swell will bring hazardous beach conditions with increased risk for rip currents, sneaker waves, and larger shore break. This will result in dangerous conditions along the shoreline. Hazardous beach conditions are expected to continue through Thursday with the issuance of additional Beach Hazard Statements likely. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and NEVER turn your back on the ocean. Monitor local weather, surf and tide forecasts at www.weather.gov/mtr. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement from this afternoon through Monday evening for CAZ006-505-509-529-530. Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ506-510- 513-514-518. Extreme Cold Warning until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ516. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PST Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sarment LONG TERM....Sarment AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

740 FXUS66 KOTX 111151 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 351 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Wintry mix for the Cascade valleys, northern mountain valleys, and high mountain snow through Monday. - Dry and stagnant pattern being established by the middle of the week. && .SYNOPSIS... Chances for a wintry mix and high mountain snow in the Cascades and the northern counties today. Warmer air pushes up this afternoon into tonight with a transition to rain, expect potentially the Methow Valley hanging onto to cold air and seeing light freezing rain. Thereafter dry and relatively mild weather is forecast through the week into next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Monday night: A weak Atmospheric River (AR) is being directed into Washington state this morning. The atmosphere is taking time to moisten from the top down before we see precipitation east of the Cascades, but the radar is beginning to pick up on weak echoes over the northern mountains around 100 AM and won`t be long before light precipitation makes it to the surface. Snow levels this morning will start out around 3,000 feet except in the Methow Valley where snow down into the valley is expected. Precipitation intensity expanding out for Monday will be light with minimal snow accumulation expected in the valleys. Mountains above 3,000 feet will see the potential for up to 2+ inches. Highest snow accumulations will be near the Cascade crest. Accumulations will be lighter over the Northeast Mountains and the Northern Panhandle were up to an inch is expected. Additional energy in the AR pushes across for Sunday night and this will amplify the precipitation primarily over the northern Cascades. Warmer air moving in will result in precipitation type transitioning over to rain with snow levels shooting up over 6,000 feet. The one exception may be in the upper reaches of the Methow Valley. Temperatures in the Methow Valley are sitting in the upper 20s to low 30s. Temperatures aren`t expected to warm much this afternoon with the dense cloud cover and threat of precipition and may warm to above freezing. Will need to track these temperatures closely in the afternoon. If surface temperatures look to sit around around freezing for the late afternoon then the threat of freezing rain will increase for Sunday night. Ice accumulation looks to be fairly minor, but whether a winter weather advisory is needed for a light glaze will depend on how those temperatures trend through the day today. Tuesday through Sunday: Ensembles continue to show excellent agreement in the ridge amplifying and persist through the week. We will see a short wave disturbance that tracks across primarily BC and graze across the northern portion of the region on Wednesday. This disturbance would mainly just bring passing high clouds. There is high confidence that ridge rebounds in a big way for the rest of the week into the weekend. It will be a dry, mild, and stagnant pattern. We retain the moisture in the boundary layer and this typically results in a lot of fog and/or low stratus developing. Winds will be weak and inversions will be strong. With that said, widespread stratus cover tends to keep the boundary more mixed than with colder ridges such as when a ridge builds in after an Arctic intrusion. Mixing heights may be a bit deeper than what models suggest. We will have to keep the potential for an air stagnation advisory in mind though as we head through the week. Current prognoses is that this blocking ridge pattern will remain in place through next weekend. Temperatures will be above normal above the stratus deck, but temperatures in the valleys may see vary little diurnal fluctuation under a blanket of low clouds. /SVH && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs: Fog has decreased around the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area due to drying in the boundary layer from the south with VFR conditions expected to persist through 12z Monday. Moisture will top over the Cascades Sunday morning with 30% chance for a rain/snow mix at EAT and the added moisture will lower ceilings with the potential for MVFR ceilings with precipitation. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence that VFR conditions persist for KPUW/KLWS/KMWH. Moderate confidence that VFR conditions continue for KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. Low confidence in the ceiling forecast for KEAT due to the potential for light precipitation to moisten the boundary layer. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 41 34 46 34 47 29 / 10 10 10 10 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 41 34 46 36 47 30 / 20 20 20 20 0 0 Pullman 42 34 48 36 50 33 / 10 10 0 10 0 0 Lewiston 47 37 52 37 52 35 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 39 31 43 31 44 30 / 40 20 20 10 0 0 Sandpoint 39 34 42 35 45 31 / 30 30 40 30 10 0 Kellogg 41 37 47 38 49 33 / 10 10 20 20 10 0 Moses Lake 41 33 48 33 48 30 / 10 10 10 0 0 0 Wenatchee 40 36 49 38 47 35 / 30 30 20 10 0 0 Omak 38 34 43 36 44 33 / 30 30 20 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

485 FXUS66 KPDT 111057 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 257 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 .DISCUSSION...The first in a series of upper shortwaves have arrived to the region tonight, with satellite showing mid to upper level cloud cover spreading across WA and norther OR, while radar shows light showers along the WA Cascade crest, with light spill over along the east slopes and adjacent valleys. Otherwise, surface observations show persistent breezy winds along the Blue mountain foothills and through the southern Grande valley, with patchy dense freezing fog impacting the Kittitas valley. Today through Monday: The PacNW will be situated under a west southwest flow aloft through Monday as a series of shortwave passages to the north flatten upper level ridging over the western CONUS. The passing shortwaves will continue to clip the WA Cascades with light showers, however, snow levels rising to well above 6kft before this afternoon will greatly limit any snow concerns for the passes. Otherwise, the remainder of the forecast area will continue to see no precipitation. Breezy winds through the Grande Ronde valley and along the Blue mountain foothills will continue throughout today and Monday as a strong pressure gradient persists between the Columbia Basin and the Lower Treasure valley. Strongest winds with gusts 35-50mph will continue to be possible, especially at the exits of the Ladd and Pyles Canyons and between 2.5kft to 3.5kft along the Blue mountain foothills. Lastly, a strengthened temperature inversion has resulted in persistent freezing fog impacting the Kittitas valley tonight, and with a lack of strong winds developing, this area of fog will only persist throughout the remainder of this morning, with slight lifting into the afternoon. By late this evening, would expect the freezing fog to descend and expand across the Kittitas valley and persist through at least Monday morning. Tuesday through Saturday: The upper level ridge over the western CONUS will amplify poleward Monday night through Tuesday, bringing a return to area-wide dry and stagnant conditions. The ridge will briefly flatten again Wednesday as a shortwave slides into BC to the north, but precipitation will remain well north of the PacNW. Ensemble guidance is in agreement that the ridge axis will setup offshore and remain there through the weekend, placing the eastern half of WA/OR under a northerly flow aloft. A continental airmass will advect into the region under the northerly flow aloft, resulting in a cooling trend across the northern two-thirds of the forecast area. In addition, low level inversions across the Columbia Basin and adjacent valleys will strengthen under the stable conditions and dry air aloft, promoting the development of widespread low level stratus and dense fog/freezing fog into next weekend (confidence 45-65%). Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR conditions currently at all sites, which will stay the course through the period. There is a slight chance (15-25%) that KPSC may experience reduced visibilities due to fog this morning and KYKM Sunday evening, but confidence is currently too low to include in tafs. Otherwise, winds will stay light and below 8 kts with ceilings dropping from 25kft to 10kft toward the end of the period. 75 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 51 34 56 34 / 0 10 0 0 ALW 49 38 55 38 / 0 10 0 0 PSC 47 35 53 33 / 10 0 0 0 YKM 45 34 52 35 / 10 10 10 0 HRI 47 34 53 33 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 41 33 48 36 / 20 30 30 0 RDM 51 28 54 28 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 43 31 48 33 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 48 29 52 32 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 49 37 51 36 / 0 10 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...Freezing Fog Advisory until noon PST today for WAZ026. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...75

611 FXUS65 KREV 110939 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 139 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry weather prevails through next weekend with near to above normal temperatures this week. * Light winds and strengthening inversions will create hazy skies and air quality reductions this week. * Gusty east winds will develop along Sierra ridges Monday into Tuesday, and possibly late next week. && .DISCUSSION... A dry and mild weather pattern will remain in place this week with our ongoing warming trend yielding above normal daytime highs from Tuesday onward. Morning commutes will continue to be chilly as overnight lows fall below freezing each night. E/NE gusts of 40-50 mph arrive to Sierra ridges Monday afternoon and continue into Tuesday morning, which may pose minor aviation impacts and brisk conditions for backcountry recreation. Another period of gusty ridge winds is possible towards the end of the week, but details are uncertain. Elsewhere, light winds and stout inversions will likely result in hazy skies and air quality reductions this week, especially across lower urban valleys. Minimal change in the governing weather pattern will allow dry conditions to persist next weekend, perhaps continuing into early next week. There does appear to be better potential for rain and mountain snow around/after the 21st, but of course that`s subject to change being this far out. -Salas && .AVIATION... FZFG and periods of IFR/LIFR conditions will persist this morning at KTRK before dissipating between 12z and 15Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions and light surface breezes prevail today. E/NE FL100 winds increase to 20-30 kts along the Sierra crest Monday afternoon, which may pose mountain wave turbulence issues into Tuesday morning. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

676 FXUS66 KSTO 102019 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1219 PM PST Sat Jan 10 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather expected next 7 days with areas of patchy morning fog and cold overnight/morning temperatures through Sunday. - Increasing potential for a return to more widespread Valley fog/low clouds and warm/dry weather at higher elevations into next week. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today and Sunday... Current satellite and radar has dry conditions and high level clouds moving through Northern California this afternoon and evening. Temperatures are in the 50s in the Valley and 30s in the mountains. Seasonal temperatures persist throughout today and into tomorrow, with light north winds. Valley fog development is expected overnight and into tomorrow morning, with visibility reductions. How widespread and dense it becomes remains unclear with HIRES guidance showing a 40 to 50 percent chance of visibility reductions below a half mile. None the less, fog is likely overnight and into Sunday morning but at this time confidence is low on it becoming widespread. Most likely scenario is patchy dense fog with visibility reductions to a half mile or less. Fog lingers through Sunday morning, with northerly light winds helping to push it out by the late morning and afternoon. Morning lows and overnight temperatures Sunday, will drop into the 30s. Expect dry conditions throughout Sunday, with further fog potential in the overnight hours Sunday into Monday. ...Next Week... A stationary ridge continues to amplify across the West Coast through next week bringing low stratus and fog to the Valley. Areas above the stratus (the foothills) will see above normal temperatures and dry conditions. There remains some uncertainty on how strong winds will be next week, but its likely we remain light and variable in the Valley and have breezy terrain driven winds in the mountains. There exists a 20 percent chance that northerly winds remain stronger for portions of the northern Valley early next week. This would yield less fog and low stratus for those areas. Confidence in the low stratus and fog dwindle by the end of the week and into next weekend as confidence is increasing for breezier northerly winds. This would limit the stratus end of the week and into the weekend bringing more sunshine and warmth to the Valley. During this time, areas above the stratus (foothills) will have warmer than average temperatures and drier conditions, with RH values dropping potentially into the teens with little overnight recovery. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions and light winds expected to prevail at RDD/RBL through the forecast period. Similar conditions persist at remaining TAF sites through 06z Sunday, with increasing potential for MVFR/IFR conditions in areas of BR/FG after 06z. Downsloping east-northeast winds gusting to 20 kts expected overnight along the Sierra. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

845 FXUS65 KMSO 110850 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 150 AM MST Sun Jan 11 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - High Pressure to bring prolonged dry pattern next 7-10 days. - Risk for light freezing rain event across Lincoln County late Sunday night into Monday morning. Confidence is high for a prolonged period of relatively mild and dry conditions across the Northern Rockies for the next 7-10 days. Global ensembles are in strong agreement for a high amplitude ridge of high pressure to remain anchored along the U.S. West Coast, with the storm track positioned well to the north. Mild temperatures are expected across the midslopes and mountain areas, while valleys continue to experience inverted conditions. Valley fog and stratus have been isolated thus far and this trend will continue into Monday as waves of mid-upper level cloud cover stream in from the north-northwest. This cloud cover will reduce overnight radiational cooling, disrupting the development of widespread stratus and fog. The main period to watch for notable weather impacts is late Sunday night into Monday morning. Models suggest Lincoln and Flathead Counties in Northwest Montana will be on the southern most extent of a plume of Pacific moisture moving across southern Canada. Models have been trending downward with precipitation amounts the last few days with this feature, with forecast amounts of a trace to 0.03 inches in the valleys and up to 0.20 inches in the higher terrain. Nonetheless, with inversions in place and snow levels forecast to rise near 5,000-6,000 feet, light freezing rain is a concern, mainly focused for areas north of US-2 and west of US-93 in Lincoln County. The ridge axis will shift further eastward Tuesday into Wednesday. Stagnant conditions will help to strengthen valley inversions, increasing the risk for areas of fog and stratus. && .AVIATION... Valley inversions will continue through Sunday. Expect VFR conditions for most locations. Drier surface conditions and waves of mid-upper level cloud cover will help to reduce the development of widespread valley fog and stratus. Isolated areas of fog will develop near bodies of water and rivers, with a 10-20% chance for periods of visibility below 2SM for KGPI and KMSO through 11/1600Z. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

569 FXUS65 KBOI 111023 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 323 AM MST Sun Jan 11 2026 .SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night...A ridge of high pressure will build overhead through the short term, pushing the storm track well to our north. The ridge will cause valley inversions to strengthen, keeping lower valley temperatures near normal. Meanwhile, higher elevations will gradually warm, with temperatures 5-15 degrees above normal by Monday and Tuesday. Mostly to partly clear skies and light winds will allow patchy valley fog to develop each night, mainly in mountain valleys, lower basins across southeast Oregon, and the Snake Basin. No precipitation is expected under this pattern. .LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...High pressure will continue to build over the region through the work week, with air stagnation concerns from a persistent surface inversion expected through at least Thursday. Temperatures will remain warm during the daytime and likely above freezing for higher elevations (5000-7000 feet MSL) above the inversion. Cold pools with below normal temperatures will linger in lower elevation valleys, with the potential for low clouds and fog to develop each morning, primarily in sheltered mountain valleys. Relief from the stagnant conditions could come as early as Friday with a dry cold frontal passage to our east potentially bringing breezy winds and cooler air into the valley. The big question mark in this forecast outcome is how far west the cold front/upper level trough will track, with the bulk of the ECMWF ensembles and EC AI solution keeping the frontal passage further east. This would keep the stagnant conditions in place over the area through the weekend. Regardless, precipitation and a significant change in weather is not anticipated in the long term period. && .AVIATION...VFR under high clouds. Areas of fog/low stratus in sheltered valleys will mix out by late morning, MVFR/LIFR with mtn obscuration in fog/low stratus. Surface winds: Variable up to 10 kt except NE 10-20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt near KJER and portions of the Snake Basin. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: Variable 5-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: SE 5-10 kt. && .AIR STAGNATION...High pressure will remain centered over the region through the end of the week. A light east to southeast breeze will continue today, but lighter winds will develop the rest of the week under valley temperature inversions. Additionally, mixing heights are expected to remain below 1500 feet AGL for an extended period. These conditions will severely limit ventilation, leading to the accumulation of pollutants in valley locations. The Air Stagnation Advisory is currently in effect until 5 am MST Friday for all valley zones in southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. Long range models suggest these conditions may persist beyond Friday, although confidence is lower. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Air Stagnation Advisory until 5 AM MST Friday IDZ011>014-016-028-033. OR...Air Stagnation Advisory until 5 AM MST /4 AM PST/ Friday ORZ061>064. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...ST LONG TERM....SA AVIATION.....SA AIR STAGNATION...ST

960 FXUS65 KLKN 110802 AAA AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Elko NV 1201 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1201 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 * High pressure and quiet conditions expected through the forecast. && .UPDATE...Issued at 1201 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026 Current forecast remains on track at this time and no changes have been made. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Blocked flow continues to be the dominant story for this forecast as the Rex Block sets up shop in the southwest United States. This pattern will keep high pressure dominant over Northeast Nevada, allowing for much warmer temperatures but also forcing any potential moisture well north of the area. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in the persistence of blocked flow and its impacts. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions and light winds at all sites through at least the next 24 hours. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...94 AVIATION...94