641 FXUS66 KSEW 142119 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 219 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level trough over the area today will bring chances of thunderstorms across the mountains and critical fire weather conditions. Thunderstorm potential will continue along the Cascades on Saturday, but will wane throughout the weekend as an upper level ridge starts to builds into the area from the southeast. Another upper level trough will move into the region early next week. Uncertainty then increases in the forecast heading into midweek as guidance remains split between a warmer, drier pattern and a cooler, wetter one. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Latest satellite imagery shows stratus draped inland along the coast, while it scatters out across the interior this afternoon. Radar also shows some development of some isolated showers and thunderstorms along the southern Cascades this afternoon. With a weak upper level trough remaining over the area today, expect another round of thunderstorms along the Olympics and Cascades this afternoon and evening as conditions over the higher terrain become increasingly unstable. Critical fire weather conditions are expected again across the mountains as any thunderstorms that do develop could produce abundant lightning and gusty, erratic winds and not much in the way of rain as conditions remain very dry across the region. The exception remains any storms that remain stationary over an area, which will need to be monitored for enhanced rainfall, especially in the vicinity of any burn scars. Afternoon highs will be in low 80s across the interior and 60s along the coast in stratus. The upper level trough will weaken across the area tonight, allowing for a ridge to build into the area from the southeast over the weekend. Southwesterly flow will develop aloft and will help to push smoke out of the area this weekend. Low level flow will remain onshore, allowing for marine stratus to push inland during the overnight periods both Saturday and Sunday. While overall thunderstorm chances will primarily wane throughout the weekend, another round of thunderstorms will be possible across the Cascades on Saturday afternoon and evening as the air mass becomes unstable during the afternoon hours and some monsoonal moisture works its way up into the region. By Sunday, any thunderstorms that do develop will mostly be confined to the Cascade crest and areas east of the crest. Afternoon highs over the weekend will be in the upper 70s to low 80s across the interior and in the mid to upper 60s along the coast, while overnight lows will be in the 50s. 14 && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The first part of next week remains to follow a rather typical pattern of onshore low-level flow maintaining morning clouds, with some clearing in the afternoon. A passing trough around Tuesday could provide a reinforcing push of clouds and knock temperatures a few degrees cooler than normal. Otherwise, ensemble guidance begins to spread a bit larger toward the middle of next week with a fairly even split between a cooler trough pattern and a warmer (near normal) pattern under zonal flow or a weak ridge. In any event, there`s not a significant signal for any precipitation of note. && .AVIATION... Stratus has cleared across the interior with generally VFR conditions. However, some thunderstorms will continue to develop off the mountains, mostly over the Cascades, this afternoon and evening. Otherwise, stratus will slowly retreat to the coast this afternoon. Another surge of stratus is likely later tonight through Saturday morning for most of the area, with IFR ceilings and visibility expected for most terminals. KSEA...VFR through the remainder of the day. Some thunderstorms will develop well east of the terminal area and continue into the evening, but is not expected at KSEA itself. Winds predominantly from the southwest, becoming west/northwest (but 5 kt or less) this evening around 02z. A return to light southwest winds then follows overnight, along with the return of low stratus around 12z tonight with IFR/LIFR conditions into the morning tomorrow. && .MARINE... High pressure remaining off the coast of California will keep winds over the coastal waters light through Saturday. High pressure will then rebuild offshore British Columbia and move southward on Sunday and remain situated off the Pacific Northwest into next week. This will bring the return of northwesterly winds to the coastal waters. Diurnally driven westerly winds down the Strait of Juan de Fuca will occur each afternoon and evening over the next several days, with winds approaching Small Craft Advisory strength at times. Seas will primarily remain between 3 to 6 ft through the weekend and through much week. 14 && .FIRE WEATHER... A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the Olympics and Cascades through this evening for another round of convection. Similarly to Thursday, most of the storms are not expected to produce much in the way of wetting rains. Given the dry conditions, any storms that do develop could have gusty and erratic outflow winds, which combined with the lightning and the dry conditions present, could produce new fire starts. While most storms will not produce much rain, there remains a small chance of flash flooding in any storms that remain stationary over an area and produce enhanced rainfall, especially over burn scars. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across the Cascades into Saturday with chances of thunderstorms possible again along the Cascade crest on Saturday afternoon and evening. Overall chances for convection will decrease through the weekend, however, as an upper level ridge starts to build into the area from the southeast. By Sunday, expect convection to mainly be confined to the Cascade crest and areas east of the crest. Another upper level trough will move into the area next week and could bring some additional elevated fire weather concerns to western Washington at times. 14 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for East Portion of the Olympic Mountains-West Portion of the Olympic Mountains-West Slopes of the Central Cascades Generally above 1500 Feet-West Slopes of the North Cascades Generally above 1500 Feet. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$

487 FXUS66 KPQR 142134 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 234 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Warm and dry conditions expected through next week with persistent onshore flow. Slight chances (15-30%) for isolated thunderstorms or showers over the Cascades this afternoon and Saturday afternoon, with increasing chances for isolated elevated thunderstorms over the Willamette Valley, Coast Range, and Cascades after 2 AM Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...Friday afternoon through Thursday...Upper level pattern continues to show longwave troughing over the Pacific Ocean with ridging over the central US. Shortwaves along the trough are slowly moving north from N CA into OR today and Saturday, bringing southerly flow and monsoonal moisture to the area. This pattern is producing a 15-30% chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms to the Cascade crest today and Saturday. Storms that form will slowly move northeast off of the crest. These thunderstorms could produce heavy rain, gusty winds, small hail, and frequent lightning. Additionally, latest CAMs are indicating increasing potential (10-15% chance) for elevated convection in the early morning hours of Saturday spreading across the entirety of NW OR and SW WA. A subtle shortwave along the flow could produce enough vorticity to tap into just enough existing elevated instability combined with the monsoonal moisture for isolated thunderstorms to form, mainly over the Willamette Valley and Cost Range, though can`t rule any out over the coast or Cascades. If any stronger cells or thunderstorms do form, they would move generally north to northeast and could form anytime after 2 AM with chances lingering through the morning hours. Since bases will be higher with these, the main impacts would be frequent lightning with locally moderate to heavy rain. Gusty winds and small hail are not as likely. A similar pattern occurred early this morning, leading to a few isolated thunderstorms to form west of Portland around 2-3 AM and slowly move northeast into Skamania County, lingering there until late morning. This provides higher confidence in the forecast Saturday morning, though the area that could receive thunderstorms is wider than this morning. Otherwise, expect mostly dry and seasonable temperatures today and through the weekend for the majority of locations. Marine stratus continues along the coast through the weekend due to the general onshore flow with stratus pushing inland at times. Guidance suggests high confidence for near normal temperatures for mid-August through the weekend, with afternoon highs warming into the low to mid 80s across interior valleys. Early next week, cluster analysis of 500 mb heights continue to suggest dry and seasonable conditions as broad upper level troughing remains well-offshore and an upper level ridge axis over the Rockies tilts into the Pacific Northwest. By mid-week, ensembles diverge into various upper level patterns. A little over half of ensemble members are favoring a trough entering the Pacific Northwest and returning cooler temperatures, while the other half favors warmer conditions due to zonal flow or amplified ridging. Either way, no precipitation is forecast as we maintain a dry summertime airmass. -03/10 && .AVIATION...Through 00Z Sunday...Satellite and terminal observations show VFR conditions with mostly clear skies inland and persistent marine stratus along the coast. Also, observations are showing smoke/haze across the airspace, but above the surface and slowly clearing. Smoke/haze across the airspace could impact slant range and vertical visibilities anytime through 06Z Saturday for inland locations. Coastal locations are expected to maintain MVFR conditions through at least 06Z Saturday. Afterwards, conditions along the coast are expected to fall back towards IFR/LIFR through at least 16Z Saturday, becoming MVFR once again through the majority of the rest of the TAF period. As for inland locations, MVFR conditions via marine stratus are expected to return around 10Z-12Z Saturday, improving to VFR by 18Z-21Z. West to northwest winds generally around 5-10 kt with the strongest in the afternoon. Around 03Z-05Z Saturday, winds are expected to become light and variable across the airspace. Starting around 09Z Saturday and through at least 15Z Saturday, models are showing around a 10-15% chance for elevated thunderstorms developing anywhere within the Willamette Valley and Coast Range. Any thunderstorms that develop could result in frequent lightning, heavy rain, and gusty and erratic winds. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with mostly clear skies, though elevated smoke could mix down at times and impact slant range and vertical visibilities through 06Z Saturday. MVFR conditions expected to return around 12Z-15Z Saturday, improving to VFR by 18Z-21Z. Northwesterly winds around 3-7 kt, strongest in the late afternoon and early evening. /42 && .MARINE...No significant changes in the overall pattern as high pressure offshore will continue to support north/northwesterly winds with gusts less than 21 kts. Seas also expected to remain around 3-5 ft. These benign conditions are expected across all waters through at least the start of next next week. /42 && .FIRE WEATHER...There`s a 15-30% chance of isolated thunderstorms along the Cascade crest during the afternoon and early evening hours today and Saturday. Additionally, there`s a 10-15% chance of isolated elevated thunderstorms forming in the Willamette Valley, Coast Range, and Cascades after 2 AM Saturday with chances continuing through the morning hours. Any thunderstorm that forms could have frequent lightning that could strike outside of areas receiving rain. However, due to persistent onshore flow (winds generally from the west to northwest), minimum relative humidities are well above critical levels (40s in the interior lowlands, 30s to 40s along the Cascade crest), and overnight recoveries will be exceptional (70s to 90s). Available water potential in the atmosphere (PWAT) values are around 0.75-0.8 inches over the Cascades and 1.0-1.25 inches over the interior lowlands, which means any thunderstorm that forms will likely produce moderate to heavy rain. Although storms over the Cascades could have brief periods of gusty and erratic winds, it will be difficult for these winds to reach where lightning might strike outside of rain cores, limiting concern for potential fire spread. Also, gusty winds are less of a concern for the Saturday morning thunderstorms as their bases will be much higher. Because of the combination of all of these factors, there is limited concern for rapid spread of fire if lightning does ignite new fires. Therefore, a Red Flag Warning has not been issued since conditions are not reaching critical, though there is still an elevated concern as lightning can still strike dry fuels outside of areas that have received rain. -03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

766 FXUS66 KMFR 142043 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 143 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Seasonable temperatures, dry, and breezy conditions continue to be the overall theme going forward * Isolated thunderstorm chances continue today and again Saturday with the main risk being lightning and gusty erratic winds * Areas of smoke remain possible due to nearby wildfires && .DISCUSSION... The trough pattern over the western CONUS continues today with this general pattern continuing well into later parts of next week as southwesterly flow aloft dominates the region. There is now much better agreement in the upper levels well into later parts of next week which helps confidence in the overall forecast key messages. For today, model guidance and satellite imagery show a shortwave entering the region. Vorticity maxima is on track to help support thunderstorm development this afternoon. The best chance will be for areas around Crater Lake and north through parts of this evening, and this would include northern Klamath and Lake counties as well. Similar to yesterday, we could see a cell or two go past midnight, but this may be more of shower activity versus thunderstorm activity. For tomorrow, we should really be confined to areas around Crater Lake and north. Perhaps eastern parts of Douglas County in the morning, but the marine layer has been making good pushes overnight and well into Douglas County. This stable layer may likely inhibit any thunderstorm activity, but cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm Saturday morning before better chances start in the afternoon. Again, this would be mainly for areas around Crater Lake and north for the better chances tomorrow afternoon. Sunday does look like a break in thunderstorm activity, but chances could return Monday. However, this would be very isolated again for northern parts of Klamath and Lake counties as our pattern remains in place. Tuesday and Wednesday we are going to be on the cusp of high pressure aloft, so it will depend on where the trough axis ends up. At this time, we do have 5-15% chances both days for thunderstorms. Thursday there is better agreement on a closed low developing within the overall trough pattern which could increase thunderstorm chances in future forecast, but at this time we only have around 5-15% for eastside areas. -Guerrero && .AVIATION (18Z TAFs)... Marine stratus remains in place along the coast this morning with those low clouds continuing into most of the afternoon hours and pushing back inland this evening. IFR ceilings are most likely through the remainder of the day and overnight hours. Inland areas will generally be at VFR levels through the TAF period. Wildfire smoke may briefly affect visibilities at Medford through the day depending on fire activity. Thunderstorms are expected across the region today. Medford(MFR) and Klamath Falls (KLMT) have a low chance of some storms in the vicinity of the runway. Thunderstorms shouldn`t be all that strong given the available convective energy and should diminish by the evening and overnight hours. -Smith && .MARINE...Updated 130 PM PDT Friday, August 14, 2026...Easing north winds and low seas will continue this afternoon and will result in sub-advisory conditions. These conditions are expected to continue through the weekend. Early next week, north winds could reach advisory strength with areas south of Port Orford being favored. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$

254 FXUS66 KEKA 142226 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 326 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Slight chance of interior thunderstorms today into Saturday. * Smokey conditions likely from the MP18 Fire, focused in the Trinity River Valley and Trinity County. * Cooler temperatures are likely through next week. && .SYNOPSIS...A troughing pattern has set up over the region. Inland areas can expect cooler temperatures with the coast continuing to have overcast conditions and brief afternoon clearing. Passing shortwave disturbances increase the chance for storms inland. && .DISCUSSION...The approach of an upper level trough has and will have dynamic effects on short term weather through the weekend. The extent of what those effects are is still uncertain as the axis of the broader open wave system swings over the CWA. From model soundings there are a few moisture signatures at 7k feet and way up high in the 33k feet range or 300mb which confirms the high clouds seen in the IR satellite observation you can see there. The lightning detection network has not shown any cloud to cloud or cloud to ground strikes as of 21z which could mean weak updraft helicity. Most of the components that would give us confidence in warning of a highly probable-dangerous system just are`nt there but at least within a 10-15% chance of lightning this late afternoon and into the evening. Areas that are being highlighted for HREF lightning probabilities > 10% include Trinity county near Hayfork and along the Yolla Bolly district- neighboring Tehama and Glenn Counties. Of particular focus would also be the border of Siskiyou with Trinity and Del Norte, which skew-T soundings show CAPE values in the 740 J/kg range with similar lightning probabilities > 10%. If any convective activity starts, it will be over by 06-07z. Other features from the troughing pattern will be cooler temperatures and the increased chance for rainshowers and thunderstorms for the interior. While moisture flow is not too impressive, these shortwave disturbances could have enough of an impact to promote convective activity through Saturday. Global ensembles show this synoptic feature continuing through next work week. Expect relatively repetitive weather conditions for the next several days. /EYS && .AVIATION...18Z TAFs. A shortwave trough is moving through the region through Saturday morning. The marine layer has further deepened with light winds in response. Afternoon and evening MVFR to IFR ceilings at the coastal terminals will transition to IFR to LIFR through Saturday morning. Light coastal drizzle would further lower VIS and bring chances for fog. Ceilings will lift Saturday, but the deep marine layer will likely lock coverage in again to limit clearing along the coast. Farther south, abundant stratus in place through the Russian River Valley is expected to transport back into UKI before late morning clearing in the 17-18Z Saturday period. && .MARINE...A relatively weak trough has set up over the region. This has caused a decrease in overall wind speeds. Waves remain steep, yet they should continue to decay through the end of the week. A southerly swell of ~3ft will build into the region by the weekend and will mix with northerly shorter period waves. However, the overall sea state should remain mixed with these two wave groups through the start of next week. Light to moderately breezy (~20kt) winds are expected through the extended forecast as of right now. && .FIRE WEATHER...A troughing pattern has set up over the region. This will result in lower daytime temperatures, increased RH values, and stronger winds due to increased mixing. A deeper marine layer will reach further up river valleys through the night as well, possibly impacting any Rx burning operations. This evening, there is a low chance (10-15%) of highly impactful thunderstorms forming over the interior specifically for the Klamath, Salmon, and Yolla Bolly Mountains. Forecast confidence is very low due to decreased instability and relatively normal moisture, however lifting will be amplified due to a shortwave disturbance flowing over the region. Any storms that do form will have motions towards the NE which should decrease the chance of any impacts. However, DCAPE values remain amplified enough create gusts capable of traveling down river valleys. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... None. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

022 FXUS66 KMTR 142102 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 202 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 156 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 - Patchy coastal drizzle late tonight into Saturday morning - Gradual warming trend this weekend into next week, but below normal temperatures will prevail - Poor overnight humidity recovery across the Santa Lucia and Diablo ranges resume early next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 156 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 (This evening through Saturday night) Improving sky conditions will persist this afternoon as daytime heating and mixing gradually erodes the marine stratus from east to west. A couple of persistent eddies across Bodega Bay will continue to send a feed of stratus into the North Bay. Confidence still remains high that clearing will continue here and we`ll see the MaxT forecast remain on track. Winds continue to climb across some of the favored regions of the East Bay and gusts to near 40 mph are probable here. Fuels across this area are dry and there does remain some fire growth potential here (pending an ignition). Broad troughing aloft in tandem with the SFO-SAC/SFO-SMK gradients increasing to around 3mb should spell a return of marine stratus across most of the area, with the exception being some elevations above 3000 feet. While overnight humidity recovery into Saturday will again climb above 60% for many locales, some of the peaks across the Santa Lucia and Diablo Ranges, as well as the Santa Cruz Mountains, East Bay Hills and North Bay Mountains may only experience max RH around 40%. This will hopefully help at least modulate any ongoing fire activity along the Central Coast during the overnight hours, outside of the highest peaks. The aforementioned troughing in place will instigate orographic ascent along the coast and coastal ranges late tonight and into the pre-dawn hours on Saturday. Forecast soundings show a moist planetary boundary layer along with steep low level lapse rates capped by a nearly 20C temperature inversion. This should promote pockets of drizzle which may translate to slick road conditions and reduced visibility through about 18 UTC on Saturday. Be sure to exercise caution if commuting. Saturday will start out gloomy and while troughing will persist, the amplitude of the wave appears a little less than today (Friday). This should translate to an earlier clearing time and a potential for greater insolation and thus warmer conditions. Temperatures will still be running a good 5 to 15 degrees below normal across the area, but it`ll be a largely pleasant day. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 156 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 (Sunday through next Thursday) As we progress into the latter half of the weekend and into next week, we`ll maintain generally southwesterly flow aloft. While the onshore flow will remain in place, the trough axis will be displaced father west which may equate to less in the way of synoptic scale ascent across our area. While I cannot completely discount the potential for patchy drizzle, I`ll forgo mentioning DZ Sunday and onward at this time. The marine layer may not be quite as deep at times next week and in fact, the deterministic guidance suggest a return to poor overnight humidity recovery (max RH between 20% and 40%) across the higher terrain of the Santa Lucia and Diablo Ranges as well as the East Bay/Santa Clara Hills and portions of the North Bay Mountains. Fortunately, there doesn`t appear to be a strong signal for winds (outside of the favored gaps and passes), though favorable alignment of fuels (which still remain dry) and terrain could support some fire growth potential. While the trough axis will remain a bit farther to the west, enough southwesterly flow should keep the Pacific Southwest ridge in check. While the multi-model ensemble mean keeps the heart of the ridge anchored across southern New Mexico and adjacent portions of west Texas, there are some solutions which place the ridge axis closer to the Four Corners. Should this solution verify, compression of the marine layer could mean that the current MaxT forecast toward the end of the long term period will need to be adjusted upward. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1037 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Extensive low clouds and patchy drizzle /MVFR-IFR/ slowly mixing out and dissipating today otherwise it`s VFR. Low clouds and patchy drizzle /MVFR-IFR/ redevelop tonight and Saturday morning. Vicinity of SFO...Low clouds /MVFR/ mixing out to VFR in the early afternoon. Low clouds /MVFR/ redevelop tonight and Saturday morning. West wind 5 to 12 knots increasing to 12 to 22 knots in the afternoon and evening. West wind decreasing to around 10 knots tonight and Saturday morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Low clouds /MVFR/ mixing out to VFR in the afternoon. Low clouds /MVFR/ redevelop tonight and Saturday morning. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 933 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 Gentle to moderate northwest winds will continue through early next week. Seas will continue to subside and become moderate in response. A long period southerly swell of about 16 to 18 seconds approaches the coast tonight into Sunday. Winds will freshen early to mid next week, causing seas to build up to 9 feet. Light drizzle is possible across the coastal waters. Haze and smoke may also impact visibility along the Big Sur coastline due to the Timber fire. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Bain LONG TERM....Bain AVIATION...Canepa MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

819 FXUS66 KOTX 142117 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 217 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued thunderstorm chances focused over mountain areas through the weekend. - Temperatures warm back into the mid 80s to mid 90s by Sunday. - Drier air returns early to mid next week. && .SYNOPSIS... A somewhat active pattern persists across the Inland Northwest through the weekend and into early next week with continued mountain thunderstorm chances each afternoon and evening. Temperatures trend warmer through the weekend. A drier airmass moves in by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Sunday: The trough that brought afternoon and evening thunderstorms to the mountain areas yesterday has begun retrograding westward and off the PNW coast. This will result in southwesterly flow, which will aid in keeping PWATs 100-150 percent above normal (0.9-1.2"). We will remain in this pattern regime through the weekend and into early next week as the low stays in place off the coast. Incoming weak shortwaves paired with daytime heating and the added moisture will create chances for thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Tonight, there is a 20-40 percent chance of thunderstorms focused along the Cascades and the ID Panhandle, and current radar does show thunderstorms moving towards the Cascades. Main impacts with these thunderstorms will be gusty outflow winds, localized heavy rainfall, and possible fire starts due to lightning. These impacts will remain similar through the weekend. While fire concerns are elevated due to lightning and gusty winds, the added moisture will limit any major fire weather concerns. Chances for thunderstorms will be similar on Saturday, but will be further confined to the Cascades and far SE Washington/Central ID. Thunderstorm chances will be further limited on Saturday as the low moves further off the coast. Monday through Friday: Monday through Tuesday, the trough begins to move back towards the forecast area. This will bring more widespread chances of precipitation, though largest chances still remain confined to the ID Panhandle. Thunderstorm chances continue through Tuesday, then taper off as a warmer and drier air mass moves in. Currently, cluster analysis and long-term models remain in disagreement over whether we will continue seeing a cooler and wetter pattern or transition to a warmer and drier pattern. Roughly half of the clusters show much of the PNW in a drier and warmer pattern to end next week, while the other half shows us continuing to see lower heights. This will depend on whether the low off the west coast strengthens or dissipates. Overall: expect unsettled weather conditions to continue with chances of afternoon and evening thunderstorms in mountain areas through early next week. Temperatures will remain very close to or just below normal. /AS && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: VFR to locally MVFR conditions will continue the next 24 hours with areas of smoke and haze. Winds will be out of the north to northeast. GEG, SFF, COE, and PUW will see winds increase to ~10kts by around 12Z, but guidance shows them relaxing a couple hours into the next TAF period. Chances of thunderstorms will be largely confined to the Cascades and ID Panhandle Mountains, though there is a chance for thunderstorms to impact EAT and LWS. There is not enough confidence to include this in the TAF. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in smoke and haze continuing to impact local terminals, but low confidence in extent of reduced vis/cigs. Low confidence in thunderstorms impacting EAT and LWS terminals. This is the most impactful alternate scenario, and would require amendments should any cells move through. /AS ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 54 86 55 88 57 88 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 53 86 55 87 57 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 48 85 48 86 51 86 / 0 20 20 0 0 0 Lewiston 60 90 60 91 63 91 / 0 30 40 0 20 10 Colville 42 85 45 86 46 86 / 0 10 10 0 0 0 Sandpoint 46 82 49 83 49 83 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 51 83 53 83 55 83 / 0 0 10 10 0 0 Moses Lake 56 89 57 90 58 90 / 0 10 10 0 0 0 Wenatchee 64 87 65 89 66 90 / 10 10 10 0 0 0 Omak 57 88 60 89 60 90 / 10 10 20 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Tuesday for Central Chelan County-Okanogan Highlands-Okanogan Valley-Upper Columbia Basin-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-Western Chelan County-Western Okanogan County. ID...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Tuesday for Lewis and Southern Nez Perce Counties-Lewiston Area. && $$

092 FXUS66 KPDT 142224 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 324 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered thunderstorms and showers will develop over the Cascades and eastern mountains through Saturday, with gusty outflow winds possible - Red Flag warning in effect for portions of the Blue Mountains, WA Cascade east slopes, and Wallowa County today and tomorrow - Isolated mountain thunderstorms continue through early next week with a return of breezy winds through the Cascade Gaps && .DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows a pronounced upper low circulation offshore the CA/OR border with upper level troughing extending north across the PacNW. Much like yesterday, area radar and visible satellite imagery show isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms that have developed across the Cascade east slopes, central/southern Blue mountains, and around the Wallowa mountains. Thunderstorm activity will continue through this evening as a weak shortwave impulse pushes northeast across the PacNW, with thunderstorm activity mainly staying mainly across the mountainous terrain. The shortwave will be supported by modest MUCAPE (250-750 J/kg), low level lapse rates 9-10C, and PWATS around 0.75 inches. By late tonight into early tomorrow morning, another shortwave will rise north across the PacNW, with light showers developing as a result. CAMs are also showing low MUCAPE (around 100-250J/kg) lingering across central and northeast OR, which will bring a low chance (~15%) of showers producing infrequent lightning strikes. The shortwave will continue to lift across the PacNW through the early evening, bringing yet another round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the Cascades, Blues, and Wallowa county. Modest MUCAPE and low-level lapse rates will aid in thunderstorm development through the afternoon, especially across the Blue mountains and Wallowa county. The biggest change will be the increase in monsoonal moisture, with PWATs approaching 1 inch across portions of northeast OR and southeast WA, allowing thunderstorms to produce heavy rain. That said, abundant lightning will still be a threat outside of the main rain cores across the mountainous terrain. Sunday and Monday, a developing upper level low will retrograde into the northeast Pacific, stretching upper level troughing over the PacNW. This will result in mainly isolated thunderstorms/showers across the mountains in the afternoons. At the surface, the cross-Cascade pressure gradient will begin to tighten, resulting in breezy west winds developing through the Cascade gaps. Winds will strengthen in the afternoons, with the stronger winds (15-20mph with gusts up to 35mph) developing Monday afternoon. Late Monday through Tuesday, there is good agreement that a shortwave trough diving out of BC will clip the PacNW, bringing with it increased westerly winds through the Cascade gaps, but mostly dry conditions. Wednesday through Thursday, ensemble clusters are in good agreement of the upper level trough/low remaining offshore, but are split on the development of upper level ridging extending into the area. The solutions range from mainly diffluent to zonal flow persisting over the PacNW with continue dry and mild conditions, to south to southwest flow which would signal the potential for isolated shower/thunderstorm activity over the mountains but continued near seasonable temperatures. Confidence is low (25-35%) in the afternoon forecast for those days. Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...Smoke will continue to have a marginal impact on the visibilities at area terminals this TAF period, Light winds under 12 knots are expected through the fore cast. Earlier concerns of convection around the central Oregon terminals appears muted at this point based on radar trends and weaker normalized CAPE values around RDM/BDN. MVFR cat vsbys in smoke may develop around the BDN/PDT terminals this evening, improve overnight and return Saturday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER...Increased monsoonal moisture and instability across the region will continue to bring an isolated to scattered thunderstorm threat through Saturday. Abundant lightning and gusty outflow wind threat will be across the WA Cascade east slopes and eastern mountains today, then across the Blue Mountains and Wallow County Saturday. Isolated mountain storm chances (15-25%) will continue Sunday and Monday. Breezy winds through the Cascade gaps will return Monday and Tuesday next week. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 55 87 56 89 / 0 30 0 0 ALW 60 89 62 91 / 0 30 10 0 PSC 57 91 57 93 / 0 20 0 0 YKM 59 90 60 92 / 0 10 10 0 HRI 59 90 59 92 / 0 30 0 0 ELN 56 85 58 86 / 10 20 10 0 RDM 50 85 49 87 / 20 10 10 0 LGD 55 87 54 89 / 20 60 20 30 GCD 55 88 54 91 / 20 20 10 10 DLS 64 90 62 92 / 10 10 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for WAZ026-522-523. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM PDT Saturday for WAZ692-693. Red Flag Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for WAZ695. Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Saturday for WAZ027-521. OR...Air Quality Alert until noon PDT Monday for ORZ041-503-505-506- 508>511. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM PDT this evening for ORZ694-695- 697-699. Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ692>695- 699. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...90 FIRE WEATHER...82

135 FXUS65 KREV 141949 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1249 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Scattered thunderstorms expected again this afternoon and evening. * Quiet weather this weekend with warm but below average temperatures, light winds, and no precipitation. * Most of next week will be seasonably warm and mainly dry. A few buildups or isolated storms cannot be ruled out over the high terrain. && .DISCUSSION... * Another round of showers/t-storms expected this afternoon but less widespread than the past couple days. Probabilities are 20-40%. Based on the HREF we`re looking at mid-afternoon development along Hwy 395 and adjacent high terrain, which then pushes eastward late afternoon into early evening. Typical impacts: outflow gusts 30-40 MPH, lightning, possible new fire starts, and brief heavy rain up to 1"/hour, and of course small hail. * Quiet pattern for this weekend with warm but below average temperatures, good humidity recoveries, little/no precip, and light afternoon breezes. * Regarding smoke potential, unless there`s a big shift upward in fire activity or new fires, smoke models are not showing much in our area through the weekend. Localized smoke/haze is possible near ongoing fires such as the Bug, Stallion, and Talbot. * Next week also looks relatively tame weather-wise compared to this past week, as high pressure builds over the Great Basin with a trough along the west coast. Basically that yields warm daytime temps but nothing excessive, typical afternoon zephyr breezes, lower humidities which also brings cooler nighttime lows, and little/no precip. There`s a 5-10% chance of buildups or even isolated storms over the high terrain starting Thursday but confidence is low. -Chris && .AVIATION... * Scattered t-storms expected from roughly 22z/14-04z/15 that could bring brief periods of MVFR conditions in rain. Erratic outflow winds 25-35 knots, lightning, and small hail are possible. Main risk area includes RNO, CXP, MEV, HTH, NFL, and LOL. Blowing dust is possible near NFL/LOL. * Outside of storms today and through the weekend, expect VFR conditions with light/variable winds turning westerly each afternoon with scattered mid/high altitude clouds. Fog at TRK can never be ruled out, but with limited precipitation there the past few days, the odds for Saturday morning are low ~10%. -Chris && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

316 FXUS66 KSTO 141924 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1224 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Limited shower and thunderstorm potential this afternoon with forecasts keeping activity outside of area - Cooler than normal temperatures, mild weather, and drying conditions this weekend into early next week && .DISCUSSION... Looking at satellite this early afternoon, our cloud cover has dissipated as temperatures warm throughout the day. Today`s main weather message is lingering chances for showers and thunderstorms, although most indications point to activity well beyond our borders. Currently, there is a 5-10% chance of thunderstorms over the mountains with best chance to see any developed storm over the Shasta County NW Mountains during the afternoon. Main hazards with any developed storm will be lightning, gusty winds, and brief heavy rain showers. Looking beyond today, we go into a period of cooler and drier weather into early next week with afternoon highs in the 80s to low 90s and daily afternoon onshore breezy weather. Another round of overcast clouds across the Delta and Valley is expected with a 45-70% chance of occurrence for ceilings less than 2000 feet. Afternoon humidity conditions trend drier before settling in the 30-50% range across the Valley, outside a pocket of drier conditions over the northern Sacramento Valley. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Breezy onshore flow will continue today, with surface winds below 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts this afternoon and evening as Delta Breeze increases. Valley winds lower after 04z Friday but will see continued 15-25 kt gusts over the Delta through 18z Friday. Mountain thunderstorm chances continue through around 03z Friday with lingering 10-15% chance on Friday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

178 FXUS65 KMSO 141825 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1225 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Rounds of showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rain, the potential for flash flooding, and gusty winds (mainly western Montana) through early this evening. - Warming, overall drying through the weekend with afternoon chances for showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding remain the primary operational concerns today. Ongoing morning showers and embedded thunderstorms across southwest and west-central Montana have already produced rain rates between 0.25 and 0.50 inches per hour. As atmospheric instability builds through this afternoon, slow- moving or training thunderstorms will redevelop across north- central Idaho and primarily western Montana. With above-normal precipitable water values and training storm potential, localized flash flooding and subsequent debris flow activity remains a distinct hazard especially in and downstream of burn scars, steep terrain, and poor-drainage urban locations. Activity will peak through late afternoon before diminishing around 7:00 PM MDT. Downburst outflow winds reaching up to 40-45 mph and small hail will accompany the stronger cells. An upper-level ridge begins rebuilding over the western US this weekend, initiating a gradual warming and overall drying trend. However, persistent southwesterly flow aloft will continually transport monsoonal moisture out of the Great Basin and into the region, maintaining daily chances for scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms through early next week. Ensemble guidance has indicated a ridge-flatting trough passage out of Canada in the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame, which could promote more widespread shower and thunderstorm chances independent of the diurnal thunderstorm regime. This weather feature will also likely promote an increase in surface westerly wind speeds. Regional wildfire smoke will begin returning aloft in the coming days, but surface smoke concentrations are expected to remain light at this time. High amounts of low-level moisture from today`s rainfall combined with overnight decoupling and clearing skies will favor fog and low stratus formation in mountain valleys through the overnight period into Saturday morning. Good to excellent overnight relative humidities are expected helping to curb fire activity overnight and shortening burn windows. Daily thunderstorm activity will introduce concerns for new lightning starts over the coming days. && .AVIATION...Heavy rain-bearing showers and thunderstorms (TSRA) remain the main hazard through about 15/0200z. Passing storms will produce temporary MVFR/IFR visibility drops in heavy downpours. Brief localized erratic outflow wind gusts up to 35-40 knots and small hail are possible with the strongest storms that develop. Rich low-level moisture following today`s rainfall paired with light overnight winds and clearing skies will create favorable conditions for fog and low stratus development in mountain valleys after 15/0600z. If fog does develop, anticipate it lasting through mid-morning on Saturday. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

164 FXUS65 KBOI 142015 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 215 PM MDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fire weather risk continues due to thunderstorm activity into Saturday. - Thunderstorms with heavy rain may also increase the risk for flash flooding, especially for recent burn scars today and Saturday. - Temperatures near to slightly below normal through early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/... Thunderstorm coverage will increase this afternoon becoming scattered across much of southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. In particular, Baker County along with Owyhee and southern Twin Falls Counties have the high probability, 40% to 70%, of thunderstorms. The primary threats with this activity are strong outflow wind gusts up to 45 mph and heavy rainfall. The 18z BOI sounding sampled 1.06 inches of precipitable water, placing atmospheric moisture in the 95th percentile for this time of year. Given this abundant moisture, flash flooding is possible over recent burn scars. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect this evening for the Fox, Powder, Tartar, and Wapiti burn scars. Additionally, Red Flag Warnings continue across portions of the Vale, Baker and Boise, districts as several new fires were initiated last night despite localized wetting rains. Activity looks to diminish overnight though a few storms could persist along the Nevada border and in the central Idaho Mountains. Moving into Saturday, another wave of thunderstorm activity is expected to develop across much of Southwest Idaho. Afternoon instability combined with another shortwave passage should support more robust convection. Heavy rain cores will again be possible even for the Snake River Plain, prolonging the threat for flash flooding and debris flows across vulnerable terrain and burn scars, including the Wapiti and Big Grass fires. By Sunday, a brief window of cooler and drier air will overspread the region as we sit between weather systems. A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms will linger primarily across the central Idaho mountains, while the rest of the forecast area remains dry. Overall temperatures throughout the short term period will hover near normal. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... Another upper-level shortwave trough will swing through the Pacific Northwest on Monday, continuing the trend of suppressing the Four Corners ridge. Flow aloft will be shifting from the southwest to out of the west/northwest, keeping shower and thunderstorm chances to the higher terrain of Eastern Oregon and Southwest Idaho. PWATs will stay above 50th percentile through this shortwave moving through, leading to localized QPF bullseyes with these thunderstorms, but will diminish Tuesday under drier west/northwesterly flow. Slightly below normal / near-normal temperatures will continue Monday and Tuesday as the trough makes its way east through the Northern Rockies. Starting late Tuesday, a trend of the upper-level ridge amplifying over the Great Basin will begin, including the SW ID/SE OR region. The extent to which it intensifies is uncertain, however, temperatures will begin to warm Wednesday onwards. While this is happening Wednesday, the upper-level longwave trough that has been sitting offshore slinging shortwaves through the area looks to finally move onshore to end the work week. Again, timing is uncertain, however increased precipitation chances and wind gusts from southerly flow aloft are expected. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 1214 PM MDT FRI AUG 14 2026 Scattered showers and thunderstorms will re-develop this afternoon with outflows to 35-45 kt. The highest chances for thunderstorms will be around KBKE/KMYL and the KTWF/KJER area. Localized MVFR/IFR and mtn obscuration with rain shafts. New fires starts may stand to increase smoke density again, however confidence on that is low. Surface winds: variable 5-15 kt, with erratic gusts near storms. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR. Patchy wildfire smoke remains in the area. A 15% chance of showers and thunderstorms through this afternoon. Surface winds: SE or variable 5-10 kt through early afternoon. Transitioning to NW-N in the late afternoon. Weekend Outlook...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing Saturday. Storms Saturday capable of heavy rain, strong gusty outflows, and MVFR/IFR conditions. Showers and thunderstorms largely taper off Sunday, with limited coverage near KBKE and the central ID mountains. Surface winds: SW- SE 5-15 kt Saturday, then SW-NW 5-10 kt Sunday. Light and variable during overnights. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Flash Flood Watch until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ011. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ423-424- 426. Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening for IDZ013. OR...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM PDT this evening for ORZ062. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for ORZ673. Red Flag Warning until 7 PM PDT Saturday for ORZ674-675. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....CH AVIATION.....CH

800 FXUS65 KLKN 141910 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1210 PM PDT Fri Aug 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Monsoon weather pattern for Central and Eastern Nevada expected to persist through tomorrow * Quieter weather and below normal temperatures in store for the weekend * Warming to near normal temperatures by mid week && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Friday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Showers and thunderstorms continue today as an upper level trough swings north through the region. The trough exit tomorrow will result in a much more stable atmosphere, but weak storm potential does persist in far eastern Nevada. Sunday through Tuesday are expected to be dry, with a slow warming trend due to developing ridging over the West. This will result in high temperatures just below normal for this time of year, with highs in the upper 80s. While model agreement has increased significantly for the first half of the week, the forecast for late week remains variable, with disagreement focusing on the timing of a West Coast trough impact. The slower solution would maintain warm and dry conditions through next weekend while the faster solution would bring cooler temperatures and storm potential as early as Thursday or Friday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in weakening storms today and tomorrow. Moderate confidence in dry weather and near normal temperatures through Wednesday. Low confidence past Wednesday. No changes from the NBM. && .AVIATION...Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are possible at all sites except KTPH today. As usual, impacts will be erratic winds 40KT to 50KT and brief decreased visibility with heavy rainfall. KELY and KTPH are also expecting gusty winds around 25KT this afternoon, dying down after sunset. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and winds 10KT or less. && .FIRE WEATHER...Thunderstorms continue today but are expected to remain wet enough to rule out new lightning starts. Flooding or debris flows remain a minor threat with the strongest rain cores. A few storms are possible in eastern Nevada tomorrow before a warming and drying trend takes over through early next week. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...94 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...94