118 FXUS66 KSEW 191040 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 340 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level ridge centered offshore today will weaken tonight and Saturday as a system moves by to the north. The ridge will rebuild Sunday with the ridge axis moving over Western Washington Monday and Tuesday. Thermally induced surface trough developing along the coast Sunday night will remain over the area through Tuesday. Thermal trough moving east Tuesday night with the upper level ridge weakening Thursday. Upper level trough approaching the coast late Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Satellite imagery shows high clouds over the southern portion of the area this morning with clear skies near the Canadian border. Temperatures at 3 am/10z were in the 50s and lower 60s except in the Seattle metro area where temperatures were in the mid 60s. Upper level ridge centered offshore extending over the area today. Light northerly flow in the lower levels. Highs well above normal, in the upper 70s to upper 80s inland and upper 60s to mid 70s coast. Upper level ridge weakening tonight and Saturday as a weather system moves through British Columbia. Low level flow going onshore tonight bringing cooler marine air into Western Washington. Lows tonight in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Highs Saturday in the lower to mid 70s inland and mid 60s coast. Upper level ridge rebuilding Saturday night into Sunday. Low level onshore flow weakening Saturday night with the low level flow going northerly again Sunday. Highs rebounding into the mid 70s to mid 80s interior and upper 60s to mid 70s coast. Lows Saturday night in the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Thermally induced surface trough developing along the coast Sunday night. Upper level ridge offshore moving east with the ridge axis over Western Washington Monday. Increasing low level offshore flow pushing highs into the 80s to lower 90s inland and lower to mid 80s for the coast. Lows in the 50s. Little change in the pattern Monday night into Tuesday with the thermally induced surface trough still in the area and the upper level ridge centered over Western Washington. Highs a couple of degrees warmer over the interior, 80s to mid 90s. Afternoon seabreezes along the coast with the thermally induced surface trough starting to move inland keeping highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s. There is a chance for record breaking highs and record high minimum temperatures Tuesday. Thermally induced trough moving east of the Cascades Tuesday night into Wednesday. Upper level ridge remaining over the area with 500 mb heights still in the mid 580 dms. Low level flow going onshore cooling highs over the interior 5 to 10 degrees versus Tuesday, in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Highs along the coast in the mid and upper 60s. Record high minimums again possible Tuesday night with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Upper level ridge weakening Wednesday night into Thursday with an upper level trough approaching the area late Thursday. By 06z Friday the trough axis will be near 130W. This forecast package only goes through Thursday so the forecast is still dry. If the pattern holds up there will be a chance of showers Friday. This would be the first rain in Western Washington in two weeks. Seattle last recorded measurable rain on June 9th. With the well above normal high temperatures and warm low temperatures moderate HeatRisk across Western Washington Monday and Tuesday. If the forecast trend continues look for a heat advisory for Monday and Tuesday to be issued sometime over the weekend. Seattle has a chance to reach 90 degrees Monday with a better chance Tuesday. It is rare for Seattle to have 2 90 degree plus days in June. In 81 years of records there have only been 10 years with two or more 90 degree plus days in June. The record for the month is 3 days in 1992, 1995 and the memorable heat dome of 2021. Felton && .AVIATION... VFR conditions with mid to high clouds today. MVFR cigs still remain possible (30-50%) between 11z-19z for the coast. Conditions expected to rebound to VFR for the coast. Increased onshore flow evening/tonight will bring increased chances for widespread MVFR cigs. Highest chances (40-70%) are along the coast after 02z, with a slight chance (20%) of IFR cigs between 04z-10z. For interior terminals, changes range between 30-50% after 11z. Light to variable winds early this morning will increase this afternoon to 6-12 kt, with stronger speeds along the coastline. SW winds after 06z-08z Saturday. KSEA...VFR conditions today with mid to high clouds. Onshore flow starting Friday evening will introduce the chances for MVFR cigs Saturday morning. Latest guidance has a 30-40% chance of MVFR cigs after 11z. Light N/NE winds early this morning will transition to W/NW this afternoon to 6-8 kt. Increasing SW winds after 06z-08z at 6-9 kt. 29 && .MARINE... Broad high pressure over the offshore waters of the Pacific retreats to the west as a low pressure system moves through British Columbia today and Saturday, causing high pressure over Washington`s waters to continue to weaken. Once the low pressure system pushes east, high pressure will quickly rebuild over area waters late Saturday evening and will strengthen through midweek. Elevated winds and seas will continue for the coastal waters through Saturday morning and will begin to subside in the afternoon. Strong northerly flow will cause seas to build to 10-15 ft this evening through Saturday morning. As high pressure continues to strengthen over the waters early next week, increased northerly flow over the coastal waters will bring the chance of small craft winds Monday and Tuesday, with the latest probabilities around 50-80%. Diurnal pushes through the Strait of Juan de Fuca will also begin today and will continue into next week. Guidance suggests the best chance for small craft winds will be on Wednesday, with a 60-80% chance. In addition, guidance is highlighting a slight chance (15-35%) for gales. 29 && .FIRE WEATHER... Elevated fire weather concerns today and again Monday and Tuesday with minimum relative humidity values dropping into the 30s. In some locations Monday and Tuesday, minimum RH values will be as low as the teens and 20s. Fuels will continue to dry and the atmosphere may become conditionally unstable with the surface thermal trough Monday and Tuesday. Fuels are getting close to critical levels. Even without hitting critical levels needed for red flag warnings to be issued, fine fuels like grass and brush will ignite quickly with it being so dry. Lets continue to be careful out there. Felton && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$

550 FXUS66 KPQR 191054 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 354 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Very warm and dry conditions today with increasing onshore flow cooling temperatures down on Saturday. Temperatures rebound Sunday into early next week as high pressure re-builds, with the hottest days being Monday and Tuesday. This will support widespread Moderate HeatRisk across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington with localized Major HeatRisk across the Portland-Vancvouer Metro Area due to warm overnight lows. There remains uncertainty with the pattern Wednesday to Thursday and exactly how much we will cool down following this heat. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Thursday... Satellite imagery and surface observations as of early Friday morning depicts some marine stratus developing along the central Oregon coast while the rest of the area remains under mostly clear skies with a few high clouds. Temperatures remain very warm today as the region remains under dry zonal flow aloft. Afternoon high temperatures forecast in the mid 80s to near 90 degrees F will result in Minor HeatRisk for most areas except for Moderate HeatRisk along the I-5 corridor from Salem, OR to Kelso/Longview, WA. This level of heat will affect those sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling and hydration. Friday night into Saturday, an upper-level low will swing down into southern British Columbia and Alberta. Most guidance suggests that this low will remain further north of our area, however, we will still see increasing onshore flow from this system. As a result of the onshore flow, overnight lows Friday night into Saturday morning are forecast in the upper 40s to mid 50s. This should provide decent overnight relief from the daytime heat. Late Saturday morning through the evening, onshore flow will peak as pressure gradients tighten due to lower pressure east of the Cascades. The strongest winds are expected through the central Columbia River Gorge and Upper Hood River Valley, where westerly winds may gust up to 30-40 mph with a 20-30% chance for isolated wind gusts exceeding 45 mph. Temperatures on Saturday will cool down further due to onshore flow with most interior valleys forecast in the mid to upper 70s with a 40-55% chance for temperatures exceeding 80 degrees along the I-5 corridor (highest chances across the Portland- Vancouver Metro Area). Temperatures begin to rebound into the mid to upper 80s on Sunday as ensemble guidance shows the aforementioned trough shifting eastward and upper-level ridging rebuilding offshore over the northeast Pacific. The hottest days of the week are expected on Monday and Tuesday as the majority of ensemble members show the ridge shifting over the Pacific Northwest. There is high confidence (>90% chance) for high temperatures exceeding 90 degrees F across the Willamette Valley and southwest Washington lowlands on Monday and Tuesday. There is even a 20-30% chance for temperatures exceeding 100 degrees F from Salem to Portland-Vancouver on Monday, with chances increasing to 40-50% on Tuesday. Overnight lows will also be warm, especially across the central Willamette Valley and Portland-Vancouver Metro Area where there is a 40-60% chance for Tuesday morning lows remaining above 65 degrees (highest chances across Portland-Vancouver Metro due to urban heat islands effects). Overnight lows near or above 65 degrees would provide limited overnight relief from the heat. As a result, there will be widespread Moderate HeatRisk across much of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington, with localized Major HeatRisk across the Portland-Vancvouer Metro Area from the warm overnight lows. Make sure to practice heat safety, including staying hydrated, wearing light-colored and loose-fitted clothing, wearing sun protection, and taking frequent breaks from the heat. If possible, schedule outdoor plans during the early morning or late evening when temperatures will be less intense. Greater uncertainty remains Wednesday to Thursday as 55% of ensemble members have the upper-level ridge shifting eastward and cooling temperatures down due to increasing onshore flow. However, the remaining 45% of ensemble members maintain the ridge overhead and continuing hot temperatures. There is currently a 20 degree spread between the NBM 10th and 90th percentiles on Wednesday for the Willamette Valley, with the coolest scenario being in the low 80s while the warmest scenario is in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees F. In addition, there remains no strong signals for any significant precipitation throughout the week. -10 && .AVIATION...Satellite imagery and terminal observations as of early Friday morning depict marine stratus developing along the coast and bringing LIFR CIGs to KONP. There is high confidence for IFR/LIFR conditions prevailing at KONP throughout the TAF period as marine stratus lingers. Over the next couple hours, marine stratus will begin to spread into the north Oregon coast and bring IFR/MVFR CIGs to KAST. However, guidance suggests that marine stratus will likely (70% chance) break out at KAST between 18z Fri-00z Sat and briefly return VFR conditions before marine stratus re-develops in the evening. Inland terminals remain VFR throughout the TAF period with high clouds. Westerly to northwesterly winds 5-10 kt, strongest in the afternoon. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions through the TAF period with a few high clouds and northwesterly winds under 10 kt. -10 && .MARINE...A summertime pattern continues throughout the next seven days with high pressure offshore maintaining northerly to northwesterly winds across the waters. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across the outer waters (beyond 10 NM offshore) through 5 PM Saturday, while the Small Craft Advisory for the inner waters (from the coast to 10 NM offshore) continues through 5 AM Friday. Expect breezy northwesterly winds with gusts up to 25 kt through this evening. Tonight into early Saturday morning, northwesterly winds begin to weaken as pressure gradients ease, however seas will remain steep and choppy around 8-12 ft at 9-10 seconds. Seas subside to 5-7 ft Saturday night into Sunday. For those traveling across the Columbia River Bar, strong ebb currents are expected around 0835 Friday. -10 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PDT this morning for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ251>253. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

704 FXUS66 KMFR 190621 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1121 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 ...Updated the Aviation and Marine Sections... .AVIATION...19/06Z TAFs...LIFR stratus is expected at the coast overnight through Friday morning, with some slight improvement to IFR and patchy breaks likely during the afternoon and early evening. A return of thicker, more widespread stratus, with a mix of IFR/LIFR is expected Friday night into Saturday morning. Inland, VFR will persist but isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected during Friday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms will be focused upon northern California and south central Oregon, including Yreka/Montague, Mt. Shasta City, Klamath Falls, Lakeview, and Alturas. But, a few cells may also develop in Jackson and Josephine counties, including Ashland. Though with diminished coverage, nocturnal thunderstorms are possible Friday night, mainly east of the Cascades. && .MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Thursday, June 18, 2026...Overnight into early Friday morning, winds will diminish. But, fresh swell will continue very steep seas south of Coos Bay and beyond 20 nm from shore, while all other waters remain steep. For Friday morning through Saturday morning, fresh swell dominated seas and weak winds will result in steep seas in the outer waters. On Saturday afternoon, a thermal trough pattern starts to develop, bringing gusty northerly winds south of Cape Blanco. Steep seas are likely to move into the inner waters south of Cape Blanco on Saturday evening. Very steep and hazardous seas may be present south of Gold Beach by Sunday afternoon. Long-term guidance suggests the thermal trough will stay in place next week, with an increase winds for Tuesday into Thursday (including gales possible south of Gold Beach). && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 243 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026/ DISCUSSION... Mid level clouds have slowed down surface heating this afternoon as observed temperatures are roughly 10 degrees cooler than the hourly temperature forecast in some locations. In addition, some cumulus build ups are starting to form in southern Siskiyou County as the atmosphere begins to destabilize. We still have isolated thunderstorms in the forecast for Siskiyou and Modoc County this afternoon. Any storms that develop should be weak and fairly brief given the lack of convective available potential energy(CAPE) and shear. Temperatures trend a little cooler tonight into Friday as a upper level low approaches the California coastline. Models are starting to initiate thunderstorm development in the morning hours around Siskiyou and Modoc Counties based on high resolution ensemble forecast(HREF) data. CAPE profiles are very slim with very elevated moisture. So we`re thinking the chance of storms is quite low during the morning hours. In any case, the threat of storms will increase into the day with surface heating and increasing mid level moisture. Severe storms are unlikely, although some shear profiles will be supportive of some stronger and longer lasting storms. By Saturday, the axis of the 500 mb trough will be pushing into the coastline with some embedded energy moving into eastern Oregon in the afternoon hours. The threat of isolated thunderstorms and perhaps some showers will still linger for Lake County on Saturday afternoon. The NBM is also predicting a 15% chance of precipitation around Mount Shasta City. In any case, thunderstorms and lightning activity should be limited Saturday afternoon. The flow pattern becomes more zonal for the start of next week as temperatures begin to warm. A thermal trough will likely develop west of the Cascades by Sunday night into Monday and persist into Tuesday. High temperatures in Medford will approach the 100 degree mark on both Monday and Tuesday. Heat risk becomes elevated/moderate during these days as low temperatures cool into the lower 60`s. As a reminder, moderate heat risk affects those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling. On a side note, the extreme forecast index(EFI) is showing values around 0.7-0.85 for maximum temperatures through Thursday west of the Cascades. These values suggest the ensembles are forecasting unusually warm temperatures for this time of year, yet by no means extreme. Conditions will begin to cool down by Thursday and Friday. -Smith FIRE WEATHER...Updated 300 PM PDT Thursday, June 18, 2026... Thunderstorms are the main fire weather threat through the next 48 hours. We`ll probably see some isolated thunderstorms today in northern California. Thunderstorms will become scattered on Friday as some mid level moisture arrives throughout the day. We have high confidence that the storm mode will be a mix of wet and dry storms. Based on past experiences, storms could definitely be drier than what we`ll see on Friday. However, abundant lightning on dry fuels is exactly what we`ll see and it should be spread out over northern California and locations east of the Cascades. Storm motion should be to the north to northeast around 20 mph, so not super fast storms. precipitable water(PWATS) are also around 0.7 to 0.9 depending on the model you look at, so enough moisture to get storms going, yet not really wet thunderstorms. Overall, we issued a red flag warning for our northern California Zones and Oregon zones east of the Cascades. A few storms could occur outside of our warning areas, although the majority of lightning should be within the red flag areas. Lastly, it will become hot and dry the start of next week. Some holdovers will likely pop up once a thermal trough settles west of the Cascades. -Smith && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 7 PM PDT Friday for ORZ621. Red Flag Warning from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM PDT Saturday for ORZ624-625. CA...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM to 7 PM PDT Friday for CAZ280-281-284- 285. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ370-376. && $$

054 FXUS66 KEKA 190715 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1215 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will continue to cool today with marine influence deepening and pushing inland. Scattered dry thunderstorms will impact high terrain locations over the interior Friday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures ease through Saturday with only minor HeatRisk - Slight chance of dry thunderstorms over higher terrain of northern Humboldt and Trinity counties this morning. - A lifting but persistent marine layer at the coast. - Warming trend returns next week. && .DISCUSSION...An upper level trough approaching the area will continue to bring cooler and more moist conditions Friday and Saturday. Most interior valleys are expected to have highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s with the hottest valley locations barely getting over 90. Increasing marine influence will also keep RH higher (over 30 for driest valleys). The trough will cross inland today and bring more cloud cover to the region. The trough will also help increase upper level instability. Combined with a moisture surge up the Sacramento Valley, there is potential for thunderstorms as early as sunrise this morning. High resolution models show a weak convective signature, but chances of actual lightning remain low to moderate at best (15%). Models generally focus convection over northern Humboldt and Trinity counties though just a few want to put storms as far south and west as the King Range. Uncertainty remains high, as many model soundings show moisture too high in the unstable layer with weak forcing, making lightning potential questionable. That said, these setups are typically not well resolved by models. In general, potential for thunderstorms is generally 20 to 30 percent, with the highest potentials for Trinity County (particularly the NE portion of the county). Otherwise cool conditions will bottom out on Saturday with gradual warming and non-impactful weather next week. Temperatures are anticipated to return to the 90s with only moderate HeatRisk expected. /JHW && .AVIATION...A persistent marine layer continues to blanket the coast early this morning causing LIFR/IFR conditions. Approaching instability from an upper level trough continues to deepen the coastal stratus. Another intrusion of low ceilings into the Russian River Valley are expected this morning. Increasing instability will most likely help further lift ceilings today. /JHW && .MARINE...Winds have generally dropped to gentle or even calm across all waters. Moderately steep short period seas are gradually falling and will generally fall below 6 feet Friday morning. Beyond the wind waves, there is a minor but persistent mid period northwest swell around 4 feet that may be more obvious with the calmer seas. North winds will gradually increase again this weekend with near gale force gusts in the outer waters by Sunday afternoon. These winds will pull closer to shore brining steep short period seas to all waters through early next week. /JHW && .FIRE WEATHER... && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 7 PM PDT this evening for CAZ403-406-409-410. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ470. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

041 FXUS66 KMTR 190828 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 128 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 112 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 - Hazardous beach conditions with increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents continue through the extended forecast - Minor HeatRisk through the end of the week with below normal temperatures expected this weekend - Temperatures warm and Moderate HeatRisk concerns return by midweek across the interior && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 (Today and tonight) Stratus is filling back in once again early this morning as a marine layer around 2500 feet deep resides over the area. Additionally, satellite reveals scattered mid to high clouds developing over the North Bay as an upper trough approaching the coast taps into weak elevated instability. This will bring a very low (generally less than a 5% chance) threat of showers and thunderstorms, primarily to northern Napa and Sonoma counties. While thunderstorms are unlikely, the trough will aid drizzle development along the coast this morning. Despite light amounts, any drizzle could make roadways slick. The trough, deep marine layer, and onshore winds will continue the cooling trend today. Highs near the coast will range from the upper 50s to around 70 degrees, with highs inland reaching the 70s to low 80s. These values are near to slightly below normal along the coast, but 5-15 degrees below normal inland. Clouds should recede this afternoon, but may hang on along the coast as moderate to strong onshore flow interacts with terrain. Winds this afternoon and evening will be breezy, especially through gaps/passes in terrain and near Monterey and San Francisco Bays where gusts 20-30 mph are possible. Tonight, expect stratus to redevelop within the marine layer with areas of drizzle along the coast. The long-period southerly swell will continue to bring a risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through late Saturday night. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean! && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 (Saturday through Thursday) Temperatures will remain below normal on Saturday as a trough lingers along the coast. Coastal drizzle is also possible within the marine layer Saturday morning. By Sunday, the trough will start to weaken and the marine layer should begin to compress. This will begin a warming trend, especially inland, where highs will reach the mid 70s to upper 80s, and even a few readings around 90 degrees in the warmest locations. The warming trend will continue early next week as a ridge builds across the western U.S. Confidence is high in hotter inland temperatures, with highs in the 80s and 90s becoming common Tuesday through Thursday and an increased concern for Moderate HeatRisk. Near the coast, confidence in the temperature forecast is low to moderate, but some warming is expected. More significant warming would likely be tied to a weaker onshore or even offshore wind pattern, which is low confidence at this time. The warming trend is definitely worth keeping an eye on and is a reminder that, despite our currently below normal temperatures, impacts from heat will become more likely next week. Finally, by Wednesday and Thursday, a minority of ensemble guidance indicates a plume of elevated instability rotating around the upper level ridge (centered over the Desert Southwest) and across the Central Coast and Bay Area. While confidence in this pattern is very low (currently around a 10% chance of occurrence), it bears monitoring as thunderstorms would be possible in this scenario. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 935 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 Breezy winds easing this evening though still persistent through the night into the day on Friday. Low clouds continue to fill much of the area terminals. MVFR will remain in place through tonight into the morning hours with slow clearing expected 16-20Z for areas closer to the coast. Confidence in marine layer depth and inland spread is moderate to high and should be similar to what was observed earlier this morning, potentially slightly deeper. Vicinity of SFO...Breezy southwest winds subsiding after 08Z. The marine layer will begin to move back inland, with MVFR cigs around 1500-1700ft likely reaching the terminal by around 07-08Z with moderate confidence on timing and cig heights. Conditions will improve again after sunrise, with cigs forecast to erode by 16-18Z Fri. SFO Bridge Approach...Lingering clouds over the bay may continue to reduce visibility overnight. Otherwise, conditions should be similar to SFO. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Low clouds near 1500ft will move into OAK over the next couple of hours with lower confidence in cigs near 2000ft reaching SJC in the 11-15z time frame. Typical diurnal winds expected on Friday. Monterey Bay Terminals...Marine stratus will continue to fill in over the region with cigs near 1000-1500ft overnight into Friday. morning. Moderate confidence in clearing time on Friday near 19-20Z Fri. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 849 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 Fresh to strong winds have been gradually weakening and will continue into the night. Fresh to strong winds will return Friday afternoon and early evening leading to hazardous conditions for small crafts in the San Pablo Bay, San Francisco Bay, Suisun Bay and Monterey Bay. Expect slight to moderate chop along with the increasing afternoon winds each day. Southwesterly swell with light to moderate seas will continue into the weekend, with moderate west to southwest winds across the outer waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through early Sunday as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through late Saturday night. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Saturday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Friday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tangen LONG TERM....Tangen AVIATION...Roser MARINE...Malarkey Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

769 FXUS66 KOTX 190847 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 147 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures and dry conditions continue. Tuesday and Wednesday next week will be our warmest days over the next week with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. - A cold front will bring dry and breezy to windy conditions on Saturday, particularly over central Washington with critical fire weather conditions possible. && .SYNOPSIS... Today will be warm and dry. A cold front will then brush across the region on Saturday and bring breezy to gusty winds across central Washington and a return for increased fire weather concerns. Little to no precipitation is expected through the middle of next week. Warm temperatures and dry conditions continue into next week. && .DISCUSSION... HOT, DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY... Today through Sunday: Friday will be another warm dry day similar to Thursday. Highs will be in the 80s to low 90s. HeatRisk will range from minor to moderate across the Basin and through the Okanogan Valley. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to low 60s. A Low is expected to slide down the BC coastline through the day and overnight. It will move through the Southern BC on Saturday. Ensembles have decent agreement on the timing and track of the Low. It will swing a dry cold front through the region. It will bring another period of gusty winds. Highest winds will be through the Okanogan Valley and the western Columbia Basin including Wenatchee and Moses Lake. These areas have probabilities of 50-70 percent for sustained winds above 20 mph and gusts above 35 mph. Minimum humidity will be in the teens to low 20 percent. These conditions are leading to heightened fire weather concerns for Saturday. The front will bring slightly cooler temps for Saturday and Sunday with highs a few degrees cooler than Friday. The only chance for precip for the region will be on Sunday and over the extreme North Idaho Panhandle. A trace to couple of hundredths are only expected. HeatRisk will be mainly minor through the weekend. Monday through Friday: For the start of next week, models are in fairly decent agreement of high pressure ridge leading to a stable warm, dry pattern. Temperatures climb back into the upper 80s and 90s. Wednesday has breezy winds through the Cascade Gaps as a thermal trough sets up along the Cascades. Toward the end of the week, models start to diverge. The deterministic GFS brings a low with increased precip chances late Wednesday into the Thursday. The EC keeps the ridge in place. Ensemble clusters do show the ridge pattern weakening on Thursday with increased precip chances and cooler temperatures for the end of the week. /JDC && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFs: VFR conditions will continue through the period. Winds will be light through the period as stable pattern continues. High clouds will pass through the period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast period. Low confidence in smoke/haze impacts to KSFF due to the nearby Upriver Fire. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 85 54 86 54 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 84 56 84 53 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 84 52 80 50 79 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 91 60 89 56 86 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 87 52 84 50 82 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 82 53 82 51 77 50 / 0 0 0 0 10 0 Kellogg 84 54 81 52 77 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 91 58 89 56 87 57 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 90 64 86 59 86 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 90 57 86 57 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). ID...None. && $$

396 FXUS66 KPDT 190537 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1037 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate HeatRisk Friday and again Monday through Wednesday - Fire Weather Watches in effect Saturday && .DISCUSSION... Heat and Fire weather risks are the main couple weather setups going forward that may result in impacts over the next week or so across the PDT CWA. Deep subsidence continues into Friday, keeping winds light across the across the region. 850Mb temperatures in the 20 to 22C range will promote mixing of hotter afternoon temperatures reaching into the the mid 90s. HeatRisk is most pronounced Friday and then again Monday and Tuesday. Tuesday is forecast to be the hottest day of the week where lower elevation Columbia Basin areas can easily exceed 100F with overnight lows Monday night and Tuesday night between 65 and 70F. HeatRisk in the Columbia River Gorge and surrounding valleys is approaching Level 3 (red) during this time frame. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast for the next 24 hours. Skies will range from mostly clear to BKN mid/high cloud. Diurnally and terrain-driven winds are forecast through mid-afternoon Friday, followed by breezy and gusty westerly winds through the Cascade gaps late afternoon and evening. There is a very low (5-10 percent) chance of high-based showers and thunderstorms affecting BDN/RDM Friday afternoon and evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Poor to fair (30 to 60%) RH recoveries overnight into early Friday morning. Higher confidence in critical fire weather probabilities well exceeding 60% across OR700, OR691 and WA690 would favor a Fire Weather Watch for Saturday afternoon and evening. The Eastern Columbia River Gorge will be an area of enhanced dry and breezy winds Friday afternoon. Critical combined RH and wind of 25% and 20 mph winds come in at about 30-40% confidence in the afternoon and evening. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 54 91 59 84 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 59 93 64 86 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 58 95 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 60 94 59 90 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 57 94 63 86 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 55 90 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 50 91 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 52 91 55 83 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 50 94 54 86 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 63 95 63 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for WAZ690. OR...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for ORZ691-700. && $$ DISCUSSION...71 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...71

811 FXUS65 KREV 191001 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 301 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Widespread minor HeatRisk with areas of Moderate HeatRisk in the Nevada Basin and Range is expected today as temperatures become milder going into the weekend. * Thunderstorm activity continues today, bringing impacts to fire, recreation, travel and aviation. * A warming trend resumes for next week, with a return of typical afternoon breezes. && .DISCUSSION... According to the latest RAP analysis of the upper air pattern, the CWA sits between a weakening upper ridge and a Pacific trough moving closer to the West Coast this morning. Model guidance projects the aforementioned trough moving over the region later today while pushing the ridge out to the east. With this setup aloft and the associated weather system moving through the region, high temperatures expect to decrease today by about 5-10 degrees compared to Thursday in some locations. NE CA and W NV valleys should see highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s range and Sierra communities will have high temperatures in the middle 70s to lower 80s range. While widespread Minor HeatRisk concerns are expected for the region, portions of the NV Basin and Range such as Hawthorne and Lovelock may see Moderate HeatRisk continue with daytime highs still warming up to the middle 90s. Generally west to northwest gusty winds are forecast today with gusts up to around 25-35 mph. This trough not only will bring some relief to the recent heat, but cause also increased shower and thunderstorm chances today compared to those from Thursday. The latest radar returns show some lingering showers mostly in NE CA this morning. Recent runs of CAMs support around a 15-30% for isolated showers in Modoc, Lassen, and Plumas Counties the early morning hours with portions of NV north of I-80 having ~15% or less as well. By mid-morning, showers in NE CA and adjacent Northern Washoe become a bit more scattered before precipitation chances increase to around 40-60% in these areas. Forecast guidance is also showing around a 40-80% chance for showers beginning around noon for the Quad County area that spreads north- northeastward into the NV Basin and Range portions of the CWA going into the afternoon. Other areas not mentioned with those above in the region will see around a 15-25% chance for precipitation this afternoon as well. CAMs then have the precipitation coverage mostly in Pershing and Northern Washoe Counties by the time the evening hits with chances diminishing almost completely around midnight as showers exit to the north. Chances that thunderstorms develop within these showers today look to be around 15-40% with the higher end chances in NE CA and the Sierra Front. While QPF values for today range between a trace to around 0.25 inches, some models are showing PWAT values up to around 0.8-1.0 inches in NE CA and W NV. If a storm develops, they are capable of producing bouts of heavy rainfall. Not anticipating major flooding concerns at this time with the quicker storm motion and how dry its been recently, but please be prepared for this. When looking at model convective parameters, storms could potentially be severe and contain both strong and erratic wind gusts up to around 60 mph and possibly hail up to 1 inch in size today. Increased outflow wind gusts may also cause blowing dust if they pass by desert sinks and playas in W NV this afternoon. There is an increased fire weather concern today due to these storms as well as the expected quick storm motion may allow for a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms today. Refer to the Fire Weather section and the current Red Flag Warning for more information on this. Please have a way to receive the latest weather information on this active weather day. It would also be a good idea to have an alternate plan ready especially if you plan to travel or be outdoors. On Saturday, the trough begins its departure eastward leaving slight precipitation chances (15-20%) along the OR border in the afternoon. Behind Friday`s showers and storms, temperatures become closer to mid-June normals on Saturday. Saturday`s forecast highs for the NE CA and W NV valleys will be in the middle to upper 80s while the Sierra communities will be in the middle to upper 70s range. Forecast guidance then projects a ridge feature moving over the W CONUS on Sunday followed by high pressure building over the SW CONUS going into the middle of next week. This signals dry conditions for next week with temperatures warming again to where Moderate HeatRisk is seen within W NV beginning on Monday and localized Major HeatRisk in the NV Basin and Range by Tuesday. -078 && .AVIATION... The main concern today will come from the showers and thunderstorms expected in the region. NE CA and adjacent NV may see around a 15- 25% chance of isolated showers this morning. But by around 19/20Z, NE CA and the Sierra Front will have chances increase to around a 30- 80%. These chances then spread into the NV Basin and Range by the late afternoon. Sierra TAF sites look to see lesser chances (<25%), but may see vicinity storms this afternoon as well. Storms may contain increased gusty outflow winds up to 55 kts, brief periods of heavy rain and frequent lightning. Terrain obscuration, LLWS and turbulence may also be present near storm cores. Sub-VFR conditions are possible at most TAF sites should a storm develop or pass nearby. Outside of these potential storms, TAF sites expect to see west to northwest (south at KTVL) winds gusting up to around 20-25 kts (up to 30 kts at KMMH) during the afternoon and evening hours. While most precipitation chances end by 20/06Z, there may be some lingering showers going overnight going into Saturday along the OR border. HRICH/078 && .FIRE WEATHER... Critical fire weather concerns continue today with thunderstorm chances and coverage increasing across the region. Antecedent hot and dry conditions with poor overnight recoveries have helped in drying fuels further which also increases fire danger. Storms will again move quickly today toward the north-northeast once developed, with a mix of wet and dry storm modes. This increases potential for dry lightning strikes outside of wet storm cores as well as dry storms that produce more lightning than moisture. Gusty, erratic outflows of 50-60 mph are possible, increasing the threat of rapid wind direction shifts. NE CA and portions of adjacent NV sees the thunderstorm potential begin in the morning before coverage spreads into W NV during the late morning/afternoon. Outside of storms, afternoon winds gusting up to around 25-35 mph are forecast within the region. A Red Flag Warning is in effect today for W NV and portions of NE CA. See details in the Red Flag Warning product. HRICH/078 && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ458. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM PDT this evening NVZ420- 421. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ423-429. Heat Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning NVZ004. CA...Red Flag Warning from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ270-278. && $$

441 FXUS66 KSTO 190414 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 914 PM PDT Thu Jun 18 2026 Evening Update: Confidence has increased in thunderstorm probabilities and coverage for Friday morning through afternoon. Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of Shasta County for lightning outside the main precipitation core in wet thunderstorms, isolated dry thunderstorms and gusty outflow winds. The rest of the AFD is unchanged, see WWA section at the bottom for updated RFW details. We have also added in shower/thunderstorm chances for Valley, foothills, and mountain areas north of Interstate 80 for this evening into the late night due to observed conditions. For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler and more seasonable weather through Saturday before a return to hot and dry conditions Sunday through next week. - Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated due to the potential for elevated mountain thunderstorms and gusty thunderstorm outflow winds. && .DISCUSSION... Conditions across the area this afternoon show mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the 80s to mid 90s for daytime highs. Warmest temperatures are expected in the northern Sacramento Valley. Upper level pattern has a weak shortwave moving along the California coast and shifting inland through the early part of the weekend. Moisture influx and instability increase as the shortwave moves onshore. HIRES guidance has indicated the potential for isolated thunderstorm activity within the Sierra for this afternoon and evening (along and south of I80), with soundings indicating modest moisture in the low levels along and west of the crest. There is a potential for a few isolated dry thunderstorms mainly in the Sierra and along the crest this afternoon/evening. Probabilities are 20 percent for occurrence as the soundings indicate sufficient moisture content. None the less, this brings the elevated fire weather concerns for today. Chances for continued isolated showers and thunderstorms overnight and into Friday, with coverage increasing along the northern and northeastern section of the forecast area Friday morning. This would include the southern Cascades into portions of the coastal range near Shasta county. As the center of shortwave moves onshore, initiation of thunderstorms start in the southern Cascades and coastal range through Shasta county. Some dry air is noted in the latest HIRES atmospheric soundings showing slight inverted V structures at times. Elevated fire weather concerns are anticipated from isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms during the morning and afternoon hours on Friday. Main threats from the dry thunderstorms would be new fire starts and gusty outflow winds. Uncertainty arises with the coverage of the dry thunderstorms and how much dry air is near the surface through 700mb. As of right now the probabilities of thunderstorms is around 30 percent with the highest in the southern Cascades. This is where the CAMS have picked up the highest chances for initiation of thunderstorms as the short wave moves onshore. Because of the remaining uncertanity in coverage and nature of thunderstorms, we do not anticpated the need for a Red Flag Warning at this time. We will conitnue to monitor the latest trends and if the need arises for the increased messaging for fire weather concerns. Around the mid to late afternoon hours, chances for storms begin to dwindle as the wave moves further east. Concerns for fire weather start to dwindle by the evening and overnight hours. Moving into the weekend and beyond we will start to heat back up into the 90s across the area, with the potential for lower 100s as we move into the new work week. Conditions will start to dry out quickly and RH values begin to drop. Confidence is increasing in the potential for breezy conditions at times next week on top of the drier conditions. We will continue to monitor the fire weather conditions for next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds are light and variable, but increase out of the west for the Sacramento sites this afternoon and evening. Sustained winds up to 15kts are possible. Periods of gusts of 20-25kts for Sacramento sites this evening. RDD and RBL will see southerly winds this afternoon and evening, while SCK and MOD see WNW to NW winds. Winds do go light and variable overnight and into tomorrow morning. Otherwise, higher terrain isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and evening. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning from 5 AM to 7 PM PDT Friday for Burney Basin- E. Shasta /S. Cascades Above 3000 ft-Shasta County Foothills 1000-3000 ft-Shasta Lake Area & 1-5 1000-3000 ft-Shasta Metro-W. Shasta County 1000-3000 ft-W. Shasta County Above 3000 ft. && $$

963 FXUS65 KMSO 190755 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 155 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Thunderstorms return to Lemhi County Idaho and southwest Montana this weekend. - A warming trend continues through mid-week with generally mild weather ahead. A surge of southwest monsoon moisture currently visible on water vapor satellite imagery in northern California and southern Oregon will work its way into our region this evening. Tomorrow that moisture will interact with a shortwave dropping out of the northwest, and cause some thunderstorms in Lemhi county, ID and southwest Montana. Some of the very sparsely populated wilderness areas in southern Idaho count may be impacted also. The amount of moisture isn`t exceptional, but it will be enough to fuel some thunderstorms and cause cloud to ground lightning. Otherwise, pleasant weather continues to be the norm with a ridge axis over the US West Coast. The weak trough that will trigger some thunderstorms in southwest Montana tomorrow will just cool temperatures a few degrees across the region through Monday. Then the ridge will strengthen again and expand eastward. That will cause a warming and drying trend across most of central Idaho and western Montana, along with lighter winds. High temperatures are expected to peak near 90 degrees in western Montana on Wednesday, which will be one of the hottest days of the year so far. && .AVIATION...The ridge along the US West Coast will continue to keep mild conditions across the region through the next week. The only potential interruption we can see so far is some scattered thunderstorm potential affecting terminals KSMN and KBTM tomorrow (Saturday). && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...&& $$

129 FXUS65 KBOI 191007 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 407 AM MDT Fri Jun 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures 15 degrees above normal Friday, lowering to 5 degrees above normal Saturday and Sunday, then warming to 10-15 degrees above normal next week. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms late Friday through Saturday. - Showers and storms capable of producing strong and erratic outflow winds Friday, and gusty winds, heavy rain and small hail on Saturday afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/... A ridge remains over the area, with a weak trough over northern CA. A couple of thunderstorms have continued most of the night into this morning in northern CA. Temperatures will be around 15 degrees above normal today with increasing clouds this afternoon. This system will slowly move over the Great Basin through Saturday and into eastern ID and southwest MT on Sunday. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase along the NV border this afternoon and evening, with gusty outflow winds possible in eastern OR. The system moves northward on Friday night with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight. The system moves overhead on Saturday and east by the afternoon with mostly cloudy skies. Daytime heating will enhance thunderstorms on Saturday afternoon, especially in eastern OR and southwest ID south of Burns to Boise, behind the main system where partial clearing will lead to destabilization. Temperatures lower to around 5 degrees above normal Saturday and Sunday. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... A ridge will expand over the West on Monday with warm temperatures through at least Wednesday. Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees above normal with values near 100F for the first time on Tuesday and Wednesday. Forecast confidence is low beyond Wednesday with the handling and timing of a Gulf of Alaska low pressure system moving into the Pacific Northwest versus the ridge continuing and the evolution of that. A 10-20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms in this transition, but current forecast favors dry. Eventually by next Friday, cooler northwest flow sets up over the Pacific NW with temperatures returning to near normal with breezy conditions. && .AVIATION /06Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 1207 AM MDT FRI JUN 19 2026 VFR. Showers and thunderstorms moving north from NV towards the OR/NV and ID/NV borders Friday afternoon/evening. Primary hazards include: thunderstorm outflow gusts 40-50 kts, small hail, and lightning. High density altitude Friday afternoon. Surface winds: light and variable overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: variable under 7 kt. Weekend Outlook...Mostly VFR. Scattered MVFR showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon through Saturday. The stronger storms could produce outflow winds gusts up 40-50 kt, small hail, blowing dust, and brief heavy rain. Highest chances of heavy rain over the central ID mountains on Saturday. Mountain obscuration Saturday morning through late afternoon. Clearing skies Sunday with breezy winds through the Snake Plain. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon MDT Saturday for IDZ423-426. OR...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Saturday for ORZ670-672. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....KA AVIATION.....CH

620 FXUS65 KLKN 191030 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 330 AM PDT Fri Jun 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Temperatures in the 90s today, cooling into the 80s Saturday * Heat Risk continues this afternoon for those sensitive to warm temperatures * Incoming weather system increases chances for thunderstorms and light precipitation today and Saturday * Warming temperatures and drier conditions expected early next week with highs back in the 90s for all locations && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A few weak echos are noted on this morning`s radar loop. Skies are generally partly cloudy over the area at this time, but they are increasing from the south as the morning wears on. Satellite imagery this morning shows clouds moving north and northeast as northern and central Nevada sits under a southerly flow aloft. Current weather situation shows an upper ridge across the Desert Southwest and a weak upper trough in the eastern Pacific. These two features are bringing a south to southwest flow aloft along with an associated increase in mid- level moisture. Current activity in seen in northern California and northwestern Nevada right now and this activity is expected to make its way into northern and central Nevada later today. Current fire weather headlines will be discussed in the fire weather section below. For today, look for an increase in cloud cover along with convective activity across most of northern Nevada. Given how warm it has been, some light, though measurable rainfall is expected but will be isolated to higher elevation locations. Expecting many of the valley locations in the north seeing very little rainfall in general. Outflow winds to 50 mph are possible with any storm. High temperatures today will once again be in the 90s. In central Nevada, moisture will be more limited in the mid- levels with stronger surface winds to 35 mph. Highs across central Nevada will be in the 80s and 90s. Look for showers and storms to continue overnight across the north with lows in the 50s. By Saturday, the upper flow will switch to the west and northwest. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will continue in the north. Expended coverage southward with the i-80 corridor serving as the southernmost extent of the activity. High temperatures will be cooler with readings mainly in the 80s. Look for the convective activity to subside later this afternoon and evening with clouds scattering out. Low temperatures will be in the 40s and 50s. Sunday through the middle of next week, the upper ridge is expected to intensify across the southwestern United States. This will bring warming temperatures to the region with highs climbing back into the 90s by early next week. Lows will be in the 50s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Changes were again made to the NBM forecast to include isolated dry thunderstorms for northern Nevada this afternoon. Also, wind speeds/gusts across central Nevada was increased for this afternoon. High confidence continues today as high temperatures remain in the 90s. Confidence continues to remain low on the coverage and placement of dry thunderstorms in northern Nevada this afternoon and into the weekend. High confidence in cooler temperatures this weekend with moderate confidence in warming conditions early next week. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through a majority of the next 24 hour forecast period. Incoming convective activity is expected to start after 19Z across the northern TAF sites KWMC- KBAM-KEKO. Main impacts will be localized outflow wind gusts to 45KT and BLDU that could quickly reduce CIGS/VSBY to MVFR/IFR conditions. Across the central terminals KTPH and KELY, winds will develop during the late morning and early afternoon S-SW10-20G30-35KT. && .FIRE WEATHER... Look for dry thunderstorm activity to increase later today with isolated to scattered dry thunderstorms expected across northern Nevada in zones 424, 437, 438, 469, 470, and northeastern portions of 427, transitioning to a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms during the early evening hours tonight. Across central Nevada today, winds will strengthen over fire weather zones 425, 426, and 427. These will combine with single digit minimum relative humidity values to bring critical wind/RH conditions. Current complement of red flag warnings look good. The mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected to continue across portions of northern Nevada for tomorrow, though cooler temperatures and higher minimum relative humidity values may help to limit fire weather potential. Dry and warming conditions returns on Sunday, with temperatures continuing to rise through early week with dry weather. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM Friday NVZ425-426-427. Red Flag Warning from 2 PM to 11 PM Friday NVZ424-437-438-469-470. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86