000 FXUS66 KSEW 251008 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 308 AM PDT Wed May 25 2022 .SYNOPSIS...A weak weather system will dissipate this morning. A cold front will move through the area Thursday afternoon and night. Cool, showery weather is expected on Friday. Another front will move through the region Saturday followed by cool showery weather Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...There were a few areas of light rain or drizzle over Western Washington early this morning. The cloudy, drippy weather will give way to a drier air mass this afternoon through Thursday morning. Rain returns as a cold front moves through the area Thursday afternoon and night. Friday looks cool and showery with clouds and sunbreaks in onshore flow with an upper trough just offshore. 19 .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...The next frontal system will arrive Saturday--the heavier rain heads into Oregon but a rainy day for Western Washington is still a pretty good bet. Sunday will be cool with showers and sunbreaks. As we get into Monday and Tuesday of next week dry weather is likely--as a big upper trough over the Great Basin slowly shifts east leaving Western Washington in drier air with a some upper ridging just offshore. 19 && .AVIATION...A flat upper level ridge will keep flow aloft westerly before turning more southwesterly tonight. Lingering low level moisture from earlier light showers allowing for cigs to dip down into MVFR to IFR conditions for most terminals, save for BLI, where conditions remain VFR. Early morning hours may see gradual improvement but would count on improvement occuring during the late morning/early afternoon hours when widespread VFR conditions should emerge for the majority of TAF sites. Surface winds expected to be fairly benign with speeds generally 4-8 kts. KSEA...IFR conditions persisting annoyingly as low level light rain/drizzle continues to allow cigs to hover around 300-500 ft. Might see some slight improvement past 12Z with cigs possibly lifting to 1000-1500 ft, but that is going to be largely dependent if light showers move on. VFR conditions still expected to emerge by 18Z this afternoon and persist through the remainder of the TAF period. Southwesterly winds expected through the day with speeds akin to what was mentioned above. 18 && .MARINE...Quiet weather over the area waters are expected the next several days with light onshore flow persisting. A weak front will cross the area today with a stronger system arriving Thursday night into Friday. Wind speeds with this second system may merit some headlines, but a little too early to hoist anything just yet. 18 && && .HYDROLOGY...The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated as needed until then. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/seattle

000 FXUS66 KPQR 251000 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 300 AM PDT Wed May 25 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Mix of clouds and sun today, though more clouds then sun. Still, will be a warm day, with highs back into the 60s along the coast, and 70s inland. But, gradual return to more clouds and cooler weather later Thursday, and especially Friday. But, stronger system will arrive on Saturday, with rain at times and highs back in the lower 60s. Unsettled weather continues into Monday, but the chance of showers will be decreasing. Does appear that mild dry weather will return next week. && .SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)...Westerly flow aloft continues over the region this am. But, with ridge axis still over the Pac NW, will maintain somewhat of a dirty ridge pattern, with spotty light precipitation over western Washington. Considerable cloudiness over most of the region this am, but by afternoon, should see clouds thinning today, especially to south of Portland. Now, considering the warm start for the interior, with temperatures at 2 am still in the upper 50s to near 60, will not take much sunshine to boost temperatures quickly into the 60s today, then into the 70s for many interior spots. Will trend higher temperatures for areas to south of Portland, with highs in the upper 70s from Salem southward through Eugene/Springfield area. Not much change tonight, with variable clouds. Still dry, and somewhat mild with overnight lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Next system will be approaching the region, with increasing clouds through the day. Timing is such that will bring chance of showers to the coast by early afternoon, with that chance spreading to the Cascades by mid to late afternoon. Wee bit cooler along the coast, as onshore flow will increase through the day. But, farther inland, will see another mild day under the increasing clouds, with highs in the lower to middle 70s. That system will push inland Thursday night, with much higher PoPs of showers across the region. Will keep PoPs in 50 to 70 pct range. But, showers will decrease again later Thu night. Friday could go either way, with more or less showers. Models all indicate that will be between systems, with showers still over the Cascades with the system that moved across earlier, and another system approaching from the west. Feel that will see not all that much in way of precipitation for areas away from the Cascades, with variable clouds. Will trend forecasts in that direction. /Rockey .LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)...All long range models are showing a closed low pressure system nearing the coast on Sat. GFS is the fastest and strongest with a low pres off the central coast by midday Saturday.As such, will boost PoPs for Sat, with a rainy day expected. The GFS has been somewhat consistent run-to-run with this feature. Previous runs of the ECMWF was closer to the GFS solution but has since backed off. The latest shows a much weaker low off the central coast Sat morning with a secondary, deeper low heading into northern CA. Will have to watch this, if GFS solution pans out could have stronger winds at the coast than currently forecast. Mon and Tue look to be on a drying trend with decreasing chances for pcpn. WPC clusters in fair agreement with the upper trough moving into the Great Basin by Monday with upper ridging building offshore. /mh && .AVIATION...12Z TAFs: Some lingering showers overnight as the warm front continues to push eastward. Behind the front, a high pressure ridge will build causing skies to clear and temperatures to warm. In the meantime, marine stratus is filling in along the coast with IFR CIGs and reduced visibility due to patchy fog. Conditions will begin to improve along the coast after 18Z Wednesday. Inland locations should stay VFR through the forecast period, although there may be periods of localized MVFR CIGs until 18Z. With the daytime heating, will see winds become northerly but should remain light. After 06Z Thursday, a cold front will advance towards the coast but likely will not make it to the coast until after 12Z. Ahead of the front, will see winds transition to the southwest, hitting the southern portions of the forecast area first. For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse KPDX AND APPROACHES...No significant weather concerns. Generally VFR with a chance for periods of MVFR CIGs until 18Z Wednesday. A very slight chance for rain through the morning, but not expecting any impacts to the terminal./Muessle && .MARINE...Minimal changes to the forecast with a westerly swell around 3 to 5 ft at 9 seconds through Friday. Seas will slowly increase over the coming days as a broad area of low pressure will advance southward from the Gulf of Alaska on Friday night. This low will cause winds and seas to increase, although winds will see the greater impact. Winds will slowly increase to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt by Saturday evening. This is a fairly quick moving system so winds will ease Sunday. Seas during this time too will build up to 7 to 9 ft at 10 seconds. With the westerly wind combined with the westerly swell could cause the seas to build slightly higher but too soon to tell. Winds and seas will ease by Monday morning. /Muessle && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

000 FXUS66 KMFR 251007 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 307 AM PDT Wed May 25 2022 .DISCUSSION...Today will be the warmest day of the forecast period. Dry and hot weather is likely inland away from the coast, with afternoon temperatures getting close to 90 degree for many of the westside valleys. The thermal trough will shift inland today which typically results in warmer temperature for the interior westside valleys. The upper ridge will shift east tonight with upper troughing setting up west of the forecast area Thursday with a southwest flow aloft ahead if it. This will be the start of a cooling trend with afternoon temperatures between 5-10 degrees lower for inland locations. Precipitation for the most part should be isolated Thursday afternoon in the northwest part of the area, Cascades and portions of the eastside due to marginal instability and weak trigger. Instability could be sufficient enough for isolated thunderstorms over the Cascades and east of the Cascades, particularly from points northeast of Mount Shasta. The upper trough axis swings north of the area Thursday night which will result in a more west to southwest flow. Friday, upper troughing is expected to remain over the area, with weak shortwaves embedded within it which could trigger at least isolated showers mainly along and west of the Cascades Friday morning, with portions of the eastside getting into the action Friday afternoon. With a weak trigger, and atmosphere not as unstable, were not expecting thunderstorms. The upper trough will deepen and dig over the area Friday night into Saturday with a fairly strong west to east oriented jet pushing in. This will aid in upward vertical motion which will result in precipitation increasing over the area Friday night. In fact we could see more widespread precipitation Saturday, especially along and west of the Cascades and instability could be sufficient enough for at least a few rumbles of thunder in eastern Klamath, southeast Lake and Modoc County. There`s good agreement among the operational models and ensemble members showing an upper trough remaining over the area Sunday and possibly into Monday which will keep the potential for showers and cooler temperatures. There could be a relative break in precipitation Saturday night, before increasing again Sunday due to increasing instability as colder air aloft moves overhead. -Petrucelli && .AVIATION...25/12Z TAFs...A mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings extend from the near shore waters north of Cape Blanco into the Coquille and lower Umpqua valleys. These ceilings are expected to gradually thin and dissipate during the morning into the early afternoon. IFR is likely in a similar area late this evening into Thursday morning. Elsewhere, expect VFR through Thursday morning. -DW && .MARINE...Updated 230 AM PDT Wednesday 25 May 2022... Offshore high pressure and a thermal trough near the coast will bring gusty north winds and steep seas to portions of the area south of Cape Sebastian early this morning, then from Cape Blanco southward later today into this evening. Otherwise, a weak front will brush by areas north of Cape Blanco early this morning. Another front will follow a similar track Thursday into Friday. A stronger frontal system will approach Friday night and move across the area on Saturday. Models continue to show variability with the strength of southerly winds ahead of this front on Saturday. Current models support advisory level southerly winds and steep seas on Saturday with a chance for gale force winds and very steep seas. Behind the front, expect a return of gusty northwest to north winds Sunday into Monday. -Keene/DW && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters... Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376. $$

000 FXUS66 KEKA 251052 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 352 AM PDT Wed May 25 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Hot afternoon temperatures are forecast to occur across many interior valleys today. Cooler weather will then spread across the region Thursday into the weekend, with beneficial rainfall expected Friday through Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...A midlevel ridge was moving inland across the WRN CONUS early this morning. A warm midlevel airmass associated with the ridge was aiding in mild overnight temperatures across the interior ridges of NWRN CA (50s and 60s F). In addition, the warm midlevel airmass combined with large-scale subsidence was also supporting a robust low-level inversion that was evident in model forecast soundings along the coast. The marine layer was saturating beneath the inversion resulting in widespread stratus development located immediately offshore. That stratus will likely penetrate portions of coastal Humboldt and Del Norte Counties this morning, then partially mix out during the afternoon, followed by redevelopment this evening/tonight. Otherwise, hot temperatures will be probable across interior valleys this afternoon...with highs in the upper 90s across portions of Lake, southeast Mendocino, and Trinity Counties. The strong interior heating will also initiate a sea breeze during the afternoon leading to a surge of cooler marine air moving east through channeled terrain. The sea breeze will also likely preclude a more substantial threat of warmer temperatures for locations near sea level. Later this week...an upper trough is forecast to enter the NERN PAC during Thursday. That feature will shunt the previously mentioned ridge eastward away from the West Coast. Afternoon temperatures will experience a steady cooling trend as a result through the weekend. In addition, multi-model guidance shows shower development occurring across NWRN CA Friday night through Sunday as an upper trough deepens/evolves over the WRN CONUS. Impacts from rain will be mainly beneficial in nature...which includes a reduction in fuel/vegetation dryness. Garner && .AVIATION...Subsidence has aided in the clearing of skies over NWRN CA which has also allowed radiative cooling, priming conditions for stratus and marine layer development this morning. A saturated boundary layer and low level inversion are also showing up in model soundings. The end result will be the development of lower ceilings and obscured visibility at the coastal terminals later this morning. Subsequent morning IFR conditions will transition to VFR during the afternoon at the coastal terminals with IFR/LIFR returning this evening as ceilings lower again. Elsewhere, KUKI will experience VFR conditions along with gusty northerlies during the late afternoon. Winds will then become light southerly tonight. /EYS && .MARINE...Elevated northerly winds continue south of Cape Mendocino with small craft advisories in place to cover southern inner and outer waters through early Thursday morning. Northern outer waters will build back to small craft advisory conditions after sunrise. Wave groups look to be somewhat steep and square...characterized by waves out of the north around 5 feet at 5 to 6 seconds for the northern waters and 6 to 8 feet at 7 seconds for the southern waters. Otherwise, a long period southerly swell is due to arrive this weekend as well as north winds gusting up to 33 knots by late Sunday. /EYS && .FIRE WEATHER...Hot afternoon temperatures in the 90s will aid in minimum RH values in the teens today. In addition, light north winds will become locally gusty up to 20 mph out of the west this afternoon as marine air near the coast surges inland. The combination of hot temperatures, low RH values, and locally gusty winds will aid in marginally elevated fire weather conditions for portions of Lake, eastern Mendocino, and Trinity Counties. Otherwise, periods of showers accompanied by cooler and more humid conditions will spread across the region Thursday into the weekend. Garner && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 PM PDT this evening for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ455-475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

000 FXUS66 KMTR 251206 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 506 AM PDT Wed May 25 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Well above average temperatures and dry conditions will persist across the interior today as cooler conditions return near the coast. More widespread cooling is anticipated for by Thursday that will then continue into the upcoming holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION...as of 04:06 AM PDT Wednesday...Mild and dry conditions at this hour, with temperatures running 5 to 12 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Temperatures are mainly in the 50s and 60s, except for some upper 40s along the coast and widespread 70s in the hills above 1500 ft. In other words, a very warm airmass remains aloft. 850 mb temps have peaked between 20C- 21C, and will remain around that level through today, as the mid/upper ridge axis overhead moves eastward. Changes are already on the horizon as marine stratus is observed on night satellite imagery moving into our coastal zones from both the north and south - the notable "southerly surge" we experience after heat events. Stratus has reached Pt Piedras Blancas in northern SLO County. As a result, we can expect cooler conditions at the coast today - at least 10 degrees cooler in places like Big Sur and Santa Cruz. Likely less pronounced cooling around the SF Bay Shoreline and in the valleys not far removed from the bay. Far interior spots in the North Bay/East Bay valleys, and in interior Monterey/San Benito counties will likely be too far removed from any marine influence to experience cooling - meaning another day of highs in the mid/upper 90s. Will be close to touching daily records in places like Santa Rosa and Livermore. As a result of the heat and extremely dry conditions (local WRF showing min RH`s in the teens in the interior), one more day of near critical fire weather conditions is expected. Fortunately, winds have weakened since yesterday and will continue to do so through the morning, though offshore flow will still be present. This afternoon, flow turns onshore providing much needed humidity relief, though far interior areas will only see minor relief. More widespread relief is expected Thursday with persistent onshore flow and more seasonable temperatures - only reaching the 80s in far interior locales. A trough will develop off of the Canadian BC coast at this time, but flow over CA will be more zonal. Any moisture associated with this trough remains over the PacNW until Saturday, when a closed upper low forms and pushes into Oregon, bringing chances for rain into far northern CA. Latest NBM brings rain chances just to our north, perhaps touching the northern periphery of our CWA. Not much to get excited about, as ensemble members only support trace amounts in northern Sonoma County. Some cooling can be expected but still rather seasonable temperatures. By late Sunday into Monday, global models show a deepening trough over the Great Basin, which would likely bring cooler temperatures and windier conditions, but remaining dry. && .AVIATION...as of 05:00 AM PDT Wednesday...For the 12Z TAFs. Stratus deck continues to trek north along the Big Sur coastline, which is resulting in reduced cigs and lowered visbys over the waters. The Monterey Bay will see this stratus in the coming hours (~13z) and continue up to the SF Peninsula by the afternoon. VFR expected today as the stratus deck will recede and be confined to the coast this afternoon. With this southerly surge of stratus, winds at the surface will shift southerly as well (with the exception of KOAK/KLVK/KSNS staying generally W/NW). Surface winds will be around 8 to 15 kts today before diminishing again overnight. Cigs will be back for Monterey Bay terminals this evening as the stratus creeps back inland. SF Bay could see cigs tonight, but exact timing is still uncertain. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR and light winds. Moderate W/SW winds expected this afternoon and evening with winds up to 15 kts possible. Light winds return Wednesday night. Chance for IFR cigs with model guidance suggesting marine stratus entering through the Golden Gate gap early Thursday morning. KSFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay...VFR with light winds. Satellite imagery shows stratus approaching Point Sur, so based on its current trajectory, could see in Monterey Bay by 13-14z. KSNS has the best chance for seeing cigs with it filling into the Salinas Valley ~14z this morning. Will continue to monitor. Otherwise, VFR will return late morning but the stratus over the Monterey Bay will linger during the day and will move inland again this evening, resulting in potential IFR cigs overnight. && .MARINE...as of 02:22 AM PDT Wednesday...Dense fog will impact southern waters near Big Sur and the Monterey Bay this morning lasting through much of the day today. Winds have shifted in these regions as well, with winds coming from the south. As for the northern waters, breezy northwest winds continue but will slowly diminish starting today. Wave heights around 7 to 9 feet at 8 seconds in the outer waters, but the diminishing winds will aid in improving the sea state, bringing wave heights down to 4 to 7 feet. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tday...SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm SCA...SF Bay from 9 AM SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm until 9 AM && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: Lorber AVIATION: McCorkle MARINE: McCorkle Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

000 FXUS66 KOTX 251122 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 422 AM PDT Wed May 25 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Outside a few sprinkles today, look for warming temperatures and dry conditions into Thursday afternoon. Afternoon highs by Thursday will reach the 70s and lower 80s. The threat for showers and thunderstorms returns Thursday afternoon and evening. A few storms in the lower Idaho Panhandle could be strong. Cool and unsettled conditions return for Memorial Day weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Today and tonight: A flat ridge of high pressure has found its way into the Northwest and will deliver a relatively dry and mild weather pattern over the next 36 hours. An axis of subtropical moisture remains draped over the ridge and we are getting reports of light rain at times but this activity has been very light with amounts generally between a trace and 0.01". There is not much forcing to squeeze out this moisture other than a 700mb warm front which looks to fall apart as the day wears on. Consequently, any chance for light rain will migrate into the mountains where terrain will intercept the moisture at times. Majority of the Basin and lee of the Cascades will experience high overcast. The air mass will warm an additional 2 Celsius around 850mb which will equate to 4 to 6 degrees of warming at the surface pushing afternoon highs into the upper 60s to lower 70s. There is about a 50% chance Spokane International reaches 70F. We will continue to experiencing moistening and warming of the air mass overnight which will result in mild temperatures compared to what we have become accustomed to over the last month. Overnight lows will remain in the 40s for most locations with our warmer communities in the lower Basin and Hwy 97 corridor lingering in the lower 50s. ...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON THE CAMAS PRAIRIE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... Thursday and Thursday night: A trough of low pressure approaches the coast Thursday and swings inland Thursday night. Midlevel flow will buckle to the southwest further warming and moistening the air mass over the Inland Northwest. It may even feel muggy to some folks across the eastern third of Washington and North Idaho as dewpoints climb into the 50s. Much of the day will be quiet with dry conditions. Temperatures will continue to warm with nearly all valleys reaching the 70s and a 50-60% chance for Moses Lake and Lewiston to hit the lower 80s. NBM has nearly a 100% chance that Spokane International will finally hit 70F on Thursday. Our concerns for impactful weather will come late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. The combination of strong heating and increasing moisture over the lower Idaho Panhandle and extreme southeastern WA will result in exceptionally high CAPE values near 1000 J/kg or higher Meanwhile, a strengthening 500mb jet will lead to effective shear around 45kts. So the thermodynamic ingredients will be in place for strong to severe storms but as with most of these cases, there will be cin (convective inhibition) to overcome or we will need a kicker to get storms going. Now that we have access to CAM (convective allowing models) we are getting a sneak peak at what these models are showing and seeing a lot of support from these hi-res models that the high terrain over Northeastern Oregon will be that factor with cells developing during peak heating and tracking northeast toward the Camas Prairie and extreme southeastern WA Thursday starting roughly 5PM-8PM. At this time, a majority of models keep the beefiest cells over Lewis County and points south but a few, such as the 3KM NAM suggest some of these stronger cells expand further north toward Lewiston and northeaster Nez Perce County. I would say this carries low confidence at this time but something we will need to monitor. Higher confidence would be for impactful storms around Kamiah and Winchester. There will be very high moisture content in this air mass but storms should also be tracking swiftly to the northeast. As such torrential rains will be a concern with any storms along with large hail and damaging wind gusts. There is also instability noted further north into Spokane and the Northern Idaho Panhandle as the afternoon heats up but this area will most likely experience a lot of CIN and lack a "kicker" during peak heating. The kicker that we will be waiting for is the 850-700mb cold front. This front will cross into Central WA Thursday afternoon (mainly just bringing showers to Central WA) then slowly work its way toward the Washington-Idaho closer to 8PM or around sunset. There will be some lingering instability at this time but not as juicy as if it were to arrive earlier. The air mass will contain very high moisture content so I do anticipate bands of heavy showers and some thunderstorms but the main concerns will be heavy downpours, gusty winds, and lightning strikes. There are some differences with the speed of the front tracking through Idaho. Given the slowest solutions, some areas could pick up well over a half an inch of rainfall. A quicker frontal passage would result in amounts closer to a quarter of an inch or lower. Right now, looks like the Central Panhandle Mountains in Idaho southward toward the Camas Prairie stand the best shot of rainfall amounts over half an inch and locally near an inch. This will need to be monitored for localized flooding issues. /sb Friday to Tuesday: The Inland Northwest moves into a cooler, wetter pattern as a trough settles into the region. A cold front pushes east early Friday, while an upper shortwave comes on its heels. This feature coupled with 200-500 J/kg of CAPE will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms to much of the region. The best chances will be over the east third of WA and ID. Ensembles are showing about a 70-90% chance of wetting rains (>=0.10) in these latter areas. The system will also be accompanied by breezy to windy conditions. Ensembles here show a high chance of wind gusts over 25 mph at near 80-99% and around a 10-30% chance of wind gusts near 40 mph or higher from the Upper Columbia Basin to the Palouse/Spokane area. Areas across the Columbia Basin to the West Plains could see some patchy blowing dust but confidence remains low. Going into Saturday the area looks somewhat drier, with the primary shower chances around the mountains and far southeast WA and the lower ID Panhandle. The next wave moves in between Saturday night and Sunday, revitalizing precipitation chances across the region. Compared to this time yesterday models track the core of this system a bit further south. So there remains some run-to-run inconsistency. Ensembles show about 40-70% chance of wetting rains across southeast WA and the southern ID Panhandle, with about 10-50% elsewhere (highest around the mountains). This coincides with the shift of the core of the system farther southeast. Monday and Tuesday the upper trough axis starts to shift east, putting our region in a north to northwest flow. There is enough instability to keep showers in the forecast, particularly over the mountains and southeast CWA. /Cote` && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: A warm front continues to slowly lift through the region this morning resulting in ceilings down to between 6-10 kft and spotty sprinkles. As the warm front lifts northward...afternoon heating will bring a resurgence of flat cumulus and potential for ceilings around 6kft. Fair cumulus will dissipate after 00z leaving mainly high clouds at or above 15kft. Local wind gusts 20-25 mph expected across the Basin, Palouse and West Plains today, otherwise mainly light winds. /sb && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 69 49 76 53 66 43 / 10 10 0 50 50 10 Coeur d`Alene 66 48 76 52 64 43 / 20 10 0 70 70 20 Pullman 69 50 76 52 62 45 / 0 0 0 70 60 20 Lewiston 78 55 82 58 69 51 / 0 0 10 80 70 30 Colville 71 47 76 50 68 40 / 10 10 10 30 60 10 Sandpoint 62 47 72 51 61 42 / 20 10 10 70 80 30 Kellogg 61 50 74 53 60 45 / 40 10 0 80 80 30 Moses Lake 77 49 80 53 72 43 / 0 0 0 10 10 0 Wenatchee 74 53 76 54 68 46 / 0 0 10 30 30 10 Omak 75 51 76 52 72 43 / 10 0 10 30 30 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$

000 FXUS66 KPDT 250937 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 237 AM PDT Wed May 25 2022 .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...An upper level ridge of high pressure currently over the PacNW will continue to bring mostly dry and warm conditions to the forecast area. Cloud cover yesterday was thicker than anticipated and kept temperatures from getting out of the mid 70s for much of the forecast area. This thicker cloud cover was the result of a mid-level plume of moisture that continues to stream over the upper ridge and into the PacNW this early morning. This plume will gradually weaken throughout the day and cloud cover should not be as productive as it was yesterday. As a result, better warming at the surface is expected through this afternoon, with temperatures in the mid 70s to mid 80s possible in the lower elevations. Locally breezy winds will redevelop later this afternoon with the diurnal heating, with the Cascade gaps likely seeing the strongest winds in the afternoon. Later this evening, the ridge will begin to push east as an upper level trough in the northeast Pacific pushes towards the PacNW resulting in southwest flow aloft. The southwest flow aloft will allow for moisture to advect into the region ahead of the approaching trough and a surface cold front. Shower activity will begin in the late morning/early afternoon in the Cascades as the cold front boundary pushes across the crest. Ahead of the cold front boundary however, daytime heating across the eastern mountains combined with the increasing moisture, MUCAPE of 1000-2000J/kg, and 40-50kts of 0-6km bulk shear will provide a good environment for thunderstorm development starting in the afternoon. The best chances for thunderstorms will be later in the afternoon and early evening tomorrow, with gusty outflows and small hail possible with any developing storm. at this time though, there is low certainty in the exact track and strength of any one storm developing, though a severe storm or two are not ruled out in this environment. That said, the thunderstorm production will mainly be confined to portions of northeast OR and far southeast WA, with storm activity moving east into ID and far western MT through the evening and overnight. As for the rest of the forecast area, rain showers will be possible, with best chances associated with the cold front boundary pushing east through the afternoon and evening. Breezy west winds will also result with the frontal passage, with strongest winds likely in the late afternoon. Friday, the upper trough will push onshore the PacNW while an embedded shortwave impulse moves across the forecast area through the afternoon. The shortwave impulse will provide another chance of rain showers throughout the day, though any measurable precipitation will be confined to the Cascade crests and the eastern mountains. Weak instability will develop across the eastern mountains through the afternoon Friday, allowing for a chance of an isolated thunderstorm or two to develop in this area, though these storms are anticipated to be weaker than the preceding day. The shortwave impulse will reinforce tight surface pressure gradients across the forecast area Friday, with breezy west winds developing through the afternoon and evening. Lawhorn/82 .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...The weekend looks unsettled and potentially wet as an upper low develops over the area and slowly moves sewd and out of the region by Monday. Ensembles and deterministic models are coming into reasonable agreement on this scenario. The ensemble cluster all member mean depicts a 500mb closed low over WA on Sunday. With this in mind increased QPF for the period 12Z Saturday until 00Z Monday to roughly midway between the 50th and 75th percentile of the NBM 4.1 QPF. This equates to 36 hour rain totals of around an inch in the eastern mountains and Oregon east slopes and up to a half inch elsewhere...except for .1- .25 inches Columbia Basin. Interestingly the deterministic ECMWF and GFS have higher totals than this...and if this trend holds later forecasts may need to nudge up the QPF amounts. There will be at least a slight chance for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon in Oregon but parameters don`t favor strong storms. There may be a few lingering showers on Monday as some shortwave energy moves through in the northerly flow on the back side of the exiting upper low. On Tuesday and Wednesday conditions should be a bit drier but there is uncertainty on the overall large scale pattern. With a pronounced upper ridge in the eastern U.S. an overall troughy pattern may remain in the west. The ensemble clusters at this time show considerable variability so confidence in the forecast is below average. It does look like temperatures will slowly moderate from below normal Monday to near normal Tuesday to above normal by Wednesday. 78 && .AVIATION...12Z TAFS...VFR conditions are expected through the period. Lower to mid clouds mainly at northern TAF sites will tend to scatter out today...Leaving high cirrus at all the TAF sites. Winds will be 7-13 kt this afternoon and early evening with some gusts 15-20 kt mainly at KDLS, KRDM, and KBDN. 78 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 78 52 80 55 / 0 0 0 50 ALW 78 54 81 56 / 0 0 0 60 PSC 83 55 84 60 / 0 0 0 30 YKM 78 52 81 53 / 0 0 10 30 HRI 83 53 84 57 / 0 0 0 40 ELN 69 47 76 50 / 0 0 10 40 RDM 84 49 81 49 / 0 0 10 30 LGD 76 49 79 51 / 0 0 20 60 GCD 79 50 83 50 / 0 0 20 60 DLS 79 57 80 58 / 0 0 10 50 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...82 LONG TERM....78 AVIATION...78

000 FXUS65 KREV 250955 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 255 AM PDT Wed May 25 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Record highs today along with isolated showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Elevated fire concerns will exist on Thursday, particularly for lower elevations with dry grasses with additional showers and storms possible across the Great Basin. Breezy winds will persist from Thursday through Memorial Day Weekend, along with cooler temperatures, some showers and possible thunder. A few snow showers are also possible in the Sierra Sunday and Monday. && .SHORT-TERM (Through Thursday Night)... * Temps: The short-term period will be "hot hot hot" with temperatures well above average with respect to late May. Almost no change in the forecast thinking concerning temperatures over the next couple of days. Highs today will flirt with Reno`s daily record of 92, Tahoe City`s 80, and South Lake Tahoe`s 83. Out of these three cities, Reno will have the best shot at meeting or exceeding its record. Thursday looks to be only slightly cooler (by a few degrees) across the Sierra and the Sierra Front, but may actually be a hair warmer over Pershing/Churchill/Mineral counties as the ridge axis shifts eastward. Low temperatures will also be mild across the region with morning temperatures running 5-15 degrees above average. * Winds: While nothing substantial, impactful winds look to arrive by Thursday and might just hang around through at least Sunday (see long-term discussion for the weekend`s outlook). With an uptick in boating activities likely starting to ramp up for those who managed to sneak out of work a few days early, there is increasing confidence in poor marine conditions on Thursday. Memorial Day Weekend is typically the initiation of when we`ll issue Lake Wind Advisories beyond just Tahoe/Pyramid. Given the extended duration of gusty conditions lasting into the weekend, it appears prudent to go ahead and start these a day or 2 early. Friday, winds will remain elevated south of US-50 but likely remain just below advisory criteria so only Washoe/Rye Patch/Lahontan/Pyramid will continue through Fri. For more details on how this relates to elevated fire weather concerns, please see the related discussion below. * Convection: The forecast still calls for isolated showers with a few rumbles of thunder today with abundant surface heating and low-level convergence along the Eastern Sierra Front and Lassen county aiding in plenty of towering Cu development and a few Cb with the stronger updrafts. These will traverse northeastward throughout the day. Heavy precip will be hard to come by due to dry air and their high bases, but this could aid in gustier winds and more concern for lightning started fires. Development of showers and isolated thunder looks to repeat itself on Thursday afternoon, but likely initiating near and east of US-95 in western Nevada where the greatest instability and moisture will overlap. -Dustin .LONG TERM (Friday Through The Remainder of May)... Call it a tradition, quirk or a jinx, but the infamous history of having less than optimal outdoors weather in eastern CA-western NV for Memorial Day weekend appears to be setting up again this year. Friday is looking dry with gusty winds similar to Thursday and some cooling from the mid-week heat, but still above average (highs upper 70s-lower 80s for western NV valleys and near 70 for Sierra valleys). However, the trends continue toward cooler and increased shower chances for much of the Memorial Day weekend. While a couple of days ago the cooler and wetter scenario was indicated by only 10-20% of the ensemble guidance simulations, currently more than half are showing this scenario. In addition, the upper low responsible for these shower chances could linger through more of Monday as well. While the details are likely to change as we get closer to the weekend, Saturday still shows the best chance for showers and isolated thunder for northeast CA-northwest NV, with a couple stray showers possibly reaching the Tahoe basin. Gusty winds remain on the table as well, with speeds similar or even slightly stronger than Thursday-Friday. Sunday and Monday are shaping up to have temperatures 10-15 degrees below average, resulting in highs mainly in the 60s for lower elevation and 50s for Sierra valleys. Lows could bottom out in the upper 20s-lower 30s near the Sierra, and upper 30s-lower 40s in western NV for early morning Monday and Tuesday. Breezy winds will continue although speeds are expected to decrease from Saturday. While precip amounts look to be light with travel impacts unlikely on the main passes, this cooler trend does warrant a mention of snow levels which range from 7000-7500 feet Sunday afternoon-evening, and possibly to near 6000-6500 feet by Monday morning. We have already recommended packing winter clothing for those planning outdoor activities especially for the Sierra, and we can`t rule out a touch of snow in the air and on unpaved surfaces around the Tahoe basin and eastern Sierra locations for early risers on Monday. After the holiday weekend ends, temperatures begin to rebound Tuesday with precip chances decreasing, although a small percentage of the model simulations attempt to slow the departure of the upper low, so leftover clouds and stray showers aren`t fully out of the picture yet. MJD && .AVIATION... Zephyr breezes develop this afternoon in the Sierra and far western NV with peak gusts near 20-25 kts. Warming temperatures will bring a 10-15% chance for PM -TSRA across parts of western NV, mainly east of the main terminals. Cumulus buildups start to build around 21 UTC along RNO-MEV-MMH then push to the east toward LOL-NFL-HTH as the zephyr breezes develop. Stronger storms may produce gusty outflow winds to 40 kts. For Thursday-Friday, winds increase with gusts 25-35 kt at the main terminals with turbulence and mountain wave activity developing. The winds may edge upward even more on Saturday as an upper level jet streak moves overhead. MJD && .FIRE WEATHER... Atmospheric conditions (windy, warm, and dry) will combine on Thursday to produce an elevated fire weather concern across the Eastern Sierra Front and much of western Nevada. Overall fuel status outside of critical levels will preclude the issuance of a RFW, but initial attack of new fire starts will be more difficult in the lower elevations where some finer fuels have locally cured. For Thursday: Temps: Highs in the low 90s over western Nevada and Chalfant Valley. Warmest temperatures in Dixie Valley with highs in the mid/upper 90s. RH: Poor overnight RH recovery tonight into Thursday morning of 25-40% across western Nevada and portions of Eastern Sierra Front. Afternoon minimum relative humidity values of 10-20% with a few warmer valleys across the Great Basin possibly dipping into single digits. Winds: Sustained out of the west at 15-25 mph with widespread gusts of 35-45 mph. Isolated gusts on the order of 50 mph possible in wind prone areas, and the higher elevations of the Sierra Front. Thunder: Isolated showers and a few thunderstorms will develop Thursday afternoon, primarily east of US-95 on Thursday. Due to very strong mixing heights, these will likely produce little rainfall and will be more prone to cause new fire starts. Gusty outflows will of course be possible as well... -Dustin && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM PDT Thursday NVZ002. Lake Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM PDT Thursday NVZ001. Lake Wind Advisory from noon Thursday to 8 PM PDT Friday for Washoe Lake in NVZ003. Lake Wind Advisory from noon Thursday to 8 PM PDT Friday NVZ004. CA...Lake Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM PDT Thursday CAZ071. Lake Wind Advisory from noon to 11 PM PDT Thursday CAZ073. Lake Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM PDT Thursday CAZ072. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/reno

000 FXUS66 KSTO 251030 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 330 AM PDT Wed May 25 2022 .Synopsis... Hot and dry weather continues today with locally breezy northerly winds. Much cooler weather returns Thursday, and shower chances return to the mountains and northern Sacramento Valley over the weekend. && .Discussion... Strong upper ridge is currently moving overhead and skies are clear across the region. The north-south surface pressure gradient (MFR-SAC) has weakened a bit since Tuesday, but is still sufficiently strong for northerly gusts of 15-30 mph along the western edge of the Sacramento Valley. The northeast gradient (RNO-SAC) has tightened and is approaching 7 mbs resulting in local gusts of 25-35 mph in the northern Sierra. Current temperatures are very mild and are around 5 degrees warmer compared to 24 hours ago across most of the area. Readings range from the mid 60s to upper 70s across the Central Valley. Hot and dry conditions persist today as the mid/upper ridge shifts east. Highs today will up a few degrees compared to Tuesday, and a few daily records will be possible as readings climb into the 100-105 degree range across the Central Valley. Record high temperatures for today: Redding..........103 (1982) Red Bluff........105 (1982) Downtown Sac.....100 (2020 & 1951) Sac Exec.........100 (1951) Stockton.........102 (1979) Offshore gradients will gradually slacken, and flow will transition to onshore this evening as the upstream trough approaches. A robust Delta Breeze is forecast to develop tonight and continue Thursday, and combined with synoptic cooling will result in much cooler temperatures across the region beginning on Thursday. A few showers will be possible across the northern Sacramento Valley and northern mountains on Saturday as a stronger short-wave moves through the region. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Sunday THROUGH Wednesday)... Cooler temperatures continue into the holiday weekend as a trough deepens over the western US. As the trough passes over NorCal Sunday and Monday it could bring a few light showers, especially over the mountains. Clusters show high pressure building inland early next week resulting in dry and warmer weather with some gusty north to east wind, possibly bringing back elevated fire weather concerns. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions the next 24 hours. Northerly winds with gusts to 15 knots, strongest winds over the western Sacramento Valley. Winds diminish after 18Z. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley in Glenn, Colusa, Yuba, Northern Sutter, and Butte County Below 1000 Ft-Eastern Mendocino NF-Northern Sacramento Valley to Southern Tehama County Line Below 1000 Ft-Northern Sierra Foothills from 1000 to 3000 Ft. Includes portions of Shasta-Trinity and Butte Units- Southeast Edge Shasta-Trinity NF and Western Portions of Tehama- Glenn Unit-Southern Sacramento Valley in Yolo-Sacramento Far Western Placer, southern Sutter and Solano County Below 1000 Ft. Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley-Northeast Foothills/Sacramento Valley-Northern Sacramento Valley-Northern San Joaquin Valley-Southern Sacramento Valley. && $$

000 FXUS65 KMSO 251011 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 411 AM MDT Wed May 25 2022 .DISCUSSION...As clouds are rotating around building high pressure, a few sprinkles or light rain may develop around daybreak from Missoula to Kalispell. Expect mostly cloudy skies to continue this afternoon with high temperatures rising to around low 80s in north-central Idaho and near 70 in Western Montana. The inclement weather over this holiday weekend will likely happen in two distinct periods: Thursday evening into Friday evening, and again late Saturday into Monday afternoon. Thursday, a low pressure system in the Pacific begins to influence the high pressure shifting flow aloft from the southwest. This shifting flow will in-turn transport an anomalously moist airmass over the Northern Rockies. By late Thursday afternoon (after 3pm PDT) showers and or thunderstorms will begin to develop over western Idaho. As these storms initially move through western parts of north-central Idaho, increasing atmospheric instability combined with 40-50 knot mid- level winds will allow for strong to damaging winds and hail to develop. Keeping this in mind, unsecured items in the yard or on the patio may need to be secured ahead of time. After the onset of precipitation and in most of Western Montana after 8pm MDT, threats will morph to brief but heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. Considering that some of the warmest temperatures since October will occur ahead of the strong to severe weather on Thursday, the associated storm system will usher in much cooler temperatures (10 to 15 degrees below normal for late May). Temperatures will continue to cool through the weekend, with additional 10 degrees of cooling by Sunday. Snow levels will lower to around 6000 feet. If you have back country plans this holiday weekend, plan accordingly for wet and raw conditions. Storm totals for the holiday weekend precipitation will be the highest in north- central Idaho, where 3-day totals will exceed 0.25" for most locations. Higher terrain of the central Clearwater Mountains have a 40% probability of exceeding 1" liquid water equivalent. Most of Western Montana has a 40% chance of receiving 0.25" or more of precipitation, while in higher terrain that probability jumps to 70% or greater. Isolated higher terrain of west-central and southwest Montana may exceed 1" of precipitation (though only a 20% chance or less). Few global models or their ensembles suggest that the persistently wet, cool pattern over the Northern Rockies will change much in the next week or so. && .AVIATION...A moist airmass is rotating around high pressure developing over the Northern Rockies airspace. Currently, satellite, radar returns, and ground truth from weather stations suggests there is a cloud deck from 10000 to 13000 ft MSL, with virga falling out. Rain may initiate after 25/1000z at KMSO, shifting northeast and potentially affecting KGPI after 25/1500z. If rain initiates, expect lowered ceilings and light precipitation at these 2 terminals through 25/1200z and 25/1700z respectively. Clouds will remain throughout the day, likely not lowering categories below VFR after precipitation ends. On Thursday, expect showers and strong to severe thunderstorms to affect the airspace after 26/2200z from north-central Idaho, shifting into Western Montana after 27/0300z. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

000 FXUS65 KBOI 250929 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 329 AM MDT Wed May 25 2022 .SHORT TERM...Today through Friday night...A broad upper level ridge will bring dry and warmer conditions today, with high temperatures 8 to 12 degrees warmer than yesterday. The warming continues on Thursday as the upper ridge axis shifts eastward, opening up a southwest flow aloft. This is ahead of a shortwave trough, which will move into the Pacific NW Thursday afternoon. An increase in instability and moisture aloft, along with dynamics from the upper trough, will help to fuel shower and thunderstorm development Thursday afternoon across southeast Oregon and higher terrain of SW Idaho. The focus of development will shift north and east through the evening, impacting the w-central Idaho and Boise mountains through Thursday night. Dry conditions near the surface will support the potential for gusty winds from thunderstorms that develop, while a more favorable environment for strong thunderstorms could set up across NE Oregon into N-central Idaho late Thursday. This would include Baker county and parts of the W-central Idaho mountains. The initial shortwave lifts into MT on Friday, but a moist and unstable airmass in its wake will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms over much of the area Friday afternoon/evening. A deeper low pushes into the Pacific NW Friday night with more widespread precipitation overspreading the area. Temperatures peak around 15 degrees above normal on Thursday cooling to near normal on Friday. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...Unsettled conditions are expected through most of the period as an incoming, moisture laden low pressure system gradually moves into and dominates the region. Saturday through Monday will see widespread showers (across the area) intensifying into afternoon through late evening thunderstorms. Periods of gusty winds will be possible within and around these showers and storms. Due to the cold air and extensive cloud cover associated with this system, expect a cooling trend from Saturday through Sunday. Look for drier conditions with warmer temperatures to start to take hold as this system and associated weather begin to trek eastward. During the coolest portion of the forecast period, expect values to be around 10 degrees below seasonal normals. && .AVIATION...VFR. Mid-level ceilings north of KBKE-KBOI-KTWF line this morning will clear by 15Z. Surface winds: variable 5-15 kt. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: W-NW 15-25kt, becoming W-SW after Thur/06z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....WH AVIATION.....DG

000 FXUS65 KLKN 251004 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 304 AM PDT Wed May 25 2022 .SYNOPSIS...Weather will be pleasant today, giving us a brief taste of summer before a more active period begins Thursday. Isolated dry and wet thunderstorms are forecast Thursday and Friday afternoons. Snyoptically driven weather moves in for the weekend bringing cooler temperatures and better chances for showers thru early next week, particularly across N Nevada. && .SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday night Weather will be dry and pleasant today with light winds, sunny skies and warm temperatures. Daytime highs will be in the mid 70s to mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Conditions become more active by Thursday afternoon with both breezy and gusty SW winds and isolated dry and wet thunderstorms anticipated for the afternoon. Winds are expected to gust to around 40 mph across central Nevada and portions of Humboldt County, with gusts being slightly lower elsewhere. Mostly isolated dry thunderstorms can be expected for portions of the CWA given the particularly dry low levels with virga showers, gusty downdrafts, and a few lightning strikes present in lieu of rain. Activity looks to be greater in and near Elko county with better potential for wet thunderstorms, especially over the higher terrain such as the Jarbidge Wilderness and Ruby Mtns/East Humboldt Range. Thunderstorms will taper off for the overnight along with gradient winds easing. Daytime high temperatures will continue to be warm Thursday with most residing in the low 80s to low 90s. Overnight lows look to be in the mid 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM...Friday through next Wednesday. Model agreement for Friday is still keeping pace for more active weather for the Memorial Weekend. Look for the troughs closed upper-level low to push on shore through Friday with a weak frontal boundary expected to descend down across the region over the course of the day. While overall timing and positioning of the closed low is still up for debate, another day of showers as well as potential afternoon thunderstorms looks to be in the works for locations mostly north of the I-80 corridor. Meanwhile ahead of the front, winds will also look to pick up bringing potential breezy to gusty conditions through the afternoon and early evening hours. By Saturday, latest model runs look to see a repeat of Fridays activity with the low now situated over Western Canada. As for the winds, look for them to still pick up over the course of the afternoon with latest guidance looking at a more widespread impact seen. As we approach Sunday, latest model runs continue to trend towards a much stronger secondary dig from the trough bringing the closed upper-level low over the top of the Sliver State sometime Monday. With this secondary dig, look for another frontal system to move in as another round of showers looks to follow suit. Currently, latest guidance expects these showers to be much more widespread with even some chances of some high elevation snow for Memorial Day. However, agreement is still very much muddy on the full strength of the low, so confidence is still not very high for this outcome. Meanwhile, winds will once again find themselves in a similar situation as Saturday, albeit a little less breezy than the previous day. For the mid-week, showers are expected to linger as models see the trough eject out of the state, but latest guidance currently expects these showers to become more nestled in the higher elevation as we head into Wednesday. Temperatures wise, latest guidance expects a decent cool off starting Friday. Look for afternoon high temperatures to drop to mid to low 70s Friday and Saturday, with a further drop seen Monday into the 60s and high 50s. Meanwhile, overnight low temperatures will drop from the 50s Friday morning clear into the low 30s as we approach Monday morning. By Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures should begin to rise again as afternoon high return the mid 70s by Wednesday. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions expected at all terminals for the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry and pleasant weather will be in store Wednesday as high pressure is situated over the region. Isolated to scattered dry and wet thunderstorms are expected Thursday afternoon with greater activity across Elko County where the best chance for wet thunderstorms will be over the high terrain. SW winds will also be windy with gusts around 40 mph, slightly lighter across N Nevada. Minimum afternoon RH values look to be mostly in the teens both days with upper single digits across zone 426 and southern portions of zones 427 and 425. Weather is to be active thru the weekend with strong afternoon winds, cooler temperatures, and synoptically driven chances for showers, mostly across N Nevada. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 92/94/90/92