996 FXUS66 KSEW 061000 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 300 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will maintain a warming and drying trend across western Washington to start off the week. Troughing will develop over the region by Wednesday, introducing cloudy skies and chances for light shower activity that will continue through the remainder of the week. Another trough will move over the region over the weekend, bringing cooler temperatures, chances for widespread precipitation, and light snow over higher elevations of the Cascades. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...High pressure will continue to build into the region today, bringing warmer conditions and another day of sunshine across western Washington. Offshore flow will help to mitigate fog development early this morning, with temperatures across the lowlands peaking in the upper 60s and lower 70s later today. Clear skies later tonight will allow temperatures to dip into the 40s for most areas, and continued offshore flow will help limit the potential for morning fog to develop. The upper ridge axis will shift east of the Cascades by Tuesday as a trough deepens over the Gulf of Alaska. As southwest flow develops aloft, easterly winds will increase through the Cascade gaps early Tuesday morning. Temperatures Tuesday will peak a few degrees higher than today, with most areas south and east of the Puget Sound reaching the mid 70s. A frontal system will split as it reaches the coast early Wednesday, with a cutoff low projected to develop along the Pacific Coast by the middle of the week. This introduces a return to onshore flow alongside chances for light rain showers on Wednesday, mainly confined to the northern coast. However, rainfall amounts will likely not exceed a trace. As the low deepens offshore, wrap around moisture may make its way northward later on Wednesday to generate additional showers over the Cascades. Temperatures will cool considerably on Wednesday, with highs barely making it into the 60s across the lowlands. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Forecast models show good agreement over a deepening low pressure system traversing southward along the Pacific Coast through the rest of the week, maintaining chances for light shower activity from moisture advected northward. Temperatures will remain slightly below normal as troughing persists over the region, with highs in the low 60s Thursday and Friday. The best chance for more widespread rainfall will enter the region over the weekend as another trough swings across the area. Temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 50s across western Washington, with snow levels predicted to fall as low as 4000-4500 feet. While liquid amounts are on track to be generally light, this may produce the first dusting of snow over the Cascades for the season, with a light dusting possible through Snoqualmie Pass over the weekend. 15 && .AVIATION...VFR across all terminals early this morning. Fog/low stratus is still a possibility this morning at some locations if the winds remain calm/light; however confidence is low as easterly winds from the Cascades may keep the lower levels on the drier side. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to persist for the majority of the TAF period, although guidance suggests fog/low stratus is possible near the end of the TAF period, after 11z Tuesday. Light/calm to northerly winds at 4-6 kt increasing this afternoon to 5-10 kt. KSEA...VFR at the terminal early this morning and expected to persist for the majority of the TAF period with high clouds at times. Easterly surface flow should keep the lower levels dry enough to prevent fog at the terminal. Guidance is hinting that fog/low stratus may return after 13z Tuesday, with a 25% chance of IFR and 20% chance of LIFR. Northeasterly winds this morning at 6-8 kt will become northwesterly in the afternoon at 7-10 kt. Winds will shift again northeasterly in the evening after 3z to 5-8 kt. 29 && .MARINE...Broad high pressure will persist over the coastal waters today and weaken Tuesday morning. In addition, a thermal trough along the coast will bring periods of offshore flow at times. Surface flow will then shift onshore as a frontal system moves over area waters Tuesday evening into Wednesday. This will lead to increased winds and wave heights for the coastal waters. Latest guidance suggests small craft winds are possible for the coastal waters. The latest probabilities suggest a 45-80% chance of sustained winds exceeding 21 kt, while there`s a 40-90% chance of gusts exceeding 21 kt. The highest probabilities are for the outer coastal waters. Wave heights with this system will increase to 8-11 ft. Seas will subside Wednesday afternoon to 5-7 ft and will continue decreasing into Friday to 3-5 ft. Additional systems may move over the waters late in the week. However, the latest guidance suggests marine impacts will be minimal at this time. 29 && .FIRE WEATHER...Offshore flow will continue to develop across western Washington today as high pressure builds into the region. The high pressure ridge will shift eastward overnight tonight into Tuesday, generating occasionally breezy easterly winds through the Cascade gaps tonight into Tuesday morning. The highest potential for wind gusts reaching 25 to 30 mph is through Snoqualmie Pass early Tuesday morning. Relative humidities are also expected to drop into the 20% to 30% range later this afternoon with limited recovery overnight into Tuesday morning. Given the recent rains, fuel conditions are not approaching critical thresholds, but elevated fire concerns will be present today into Tuesday due to low RH values and breezy winds for Zone 659 (Central and Southern WA Cascades). Relative humidities will improve by Wednesday as onshore flow resumes, and will continue to improve into next weekend as chances for precipitation increase. 15 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$

017 FXUS66 KPQR 060924 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 224 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Conditions will remain dry with clear skies and warm afternoon temperatures through Tuesday. Offshore flow with breezy winds continue through Tuesday morning. Frost is likely in the Upper Hood River Valley from Odell to Parkdale between this morning where winds are much lighter. Temperatures trend cooler Wednesday onward. Uncertainty remains regarding when rain showers will return to the area, though most guidance holds off on precipitation until Friday night or Saturday. && .DISCUSSION...Monday through Sunday...Satellite imagery early Monday morning shows clear skies across NW Oregon and SW Washington as upper level high pressure builds over the region. Observations at 2 AM PST show temperatures in the Upper Hood River Valley have already fallen into the 30s, and are around 5-8 degrees cooler than 24 hours previous. A Frost Advisory remains in effect for this area until 9 AM, including Parkdale and Odell, as temperatures will continue falling into the low to mid 30s. The surface thermal trough has formed a bit farther east of the coast than previously expected, so current pressure gradients are not as tight as expected at this point. However, guidance continues to indicate that the thermal trough will peak over the coast with pressure gradients tightening through the early morning hours. Gradient trends follow this guidance as the PDX- DLS gradient observations have increased from -1.4 to -1.9 mb from 11 PM to 1 AM. Offshore winds will increase as the pressure gradients increase. Expecting peak gusts across the Cascades to be mainly 25-30 mph with a few gusts up to 35 mph in wind prone areas and up to 35-40 mph in the western Columbia River Gorge. Gusts across the valley will be a bit weaker than yesterday, mainly up to 20 mph with few up to 25 mph. Expecting more gusts over the Coast Range today up to 20-25 mph, as well. Winds will begin decreasing this evening for everywhere except for the Cascades, where winds won`t decrease until early Tuesday morning as the thermal trough breaks down. Relative humidities dropped into the 20s to 30s inland yesterday and are expected to be even lower today and Tuesday. However, fuels are not susceptible to rapid fire spread after recent rains. Even then, those who will be burning today should still use caution due to the breezy winds. Daytime temperatures remain warm for October through Tuesday as offshore winds continue. Inland valleys will see high temperatures around 75-78 degrees, possibly up to 80 degrees in the southern Willamette Valley. Even along the coast, temperatures could reach the low 70s today due to the offshore flow limiting the sea breeze. As offshore winds decrease tomorrow, coastal locations may not be as warm, but could still peak in the upper 60s to right around 70 degrees. Ensemble guidance is coming into better agreement on the general upper level pattern for Wednesday into the weekend. 00z LREF cluster analysis, which includes all members of the GFS, Euro, and Canadian ensembles, now indicates an upper level trough will deepen from the western Canadian coast into the eastern Pacific, just off the PacNW coast, late Tuesday into Wednesday, forming a closed low. The closed low will continue deepening to off of the northern California coast Friday, then slowly move inland sometime late Friday or Saturday. This will bring much cooler temperatures to the region Wednesday through the weekend. Daytime temperatures are forecast to be around 10-15 degrees cooler Wednesday than Tuesday with inland valleys in the mid 60s and the coast and higher elevations in the 50s. Rain chances return with this low, as well, though uncertainty continues in exactly when rain chances begin. This is due to some continued uncertainty in how close to the coast the low will move as it deepens. There`s around a 15-35% chance of rain returning late Wednesday into Thursday, with higher chances over the coast and terrain. Chances increase to around 40-60% on Friday. The majority of ensembles are in agreement of rain returning Saturday with chances increasing to 70-85% for Saturday. By Sunday, there`s more uncertainty in the track of the upper low. About half of the ensemble members suggest a faster movement, with the low moved mainly east of the Cascades on Sunday, bringing dryer conditions to the region. The other half indicate the trough will continue into Sunday, bringing additional rain chances to the region. Overall, not expecting a significant amount of rain through the weekend with this low pressure system. General QPF is around 0.5-0.75 inch for the interior lowlands 0.75-1 inch along the coast, and 0.75-1.3 inch for the Cascades. NBM indicates a 60-70% chance of at least 0.5 inch for the interior lowlands and a 50-70% chance of 1 inch for the coast and Cascades through Sunday. -03 && .AVIATION...Clear skies and VFR conditions throughout the airspace prevail through the TAF period as high pressure builds into the region. Winds will vary from northerly to easterly for each terminal. For coastal terminals, expect mostly northeasterly winds under 10 kt through the TAF period, with winds possibly up to 12 kt between 18-23Z Monday. As for inland along the Columbia River, northerly winds will be prominent until 15-18Z Monday, then shift more easterly thereafter. KTTD will be the exception, with easterly winds through the entire period. Terminals in the central and southern Willamette Valley will remain northerly through the TAF period. Inland winds will remain under 10 kt through most of the TAF period, with winds around 8-12 kt and gusts up to 20-25 kt possible between 18-23Z Monday. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with clear skies through the TAF period. Northerly winds under 10 kt through 16-18Z Monday. Easterly winds around 8-12 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt possible between 18-23Z Monday. -12/03 && .MARINE...High pressure and tightening pressure gradients due to a thermal trough developing along the coast will continue northerly winds across the waters through Wednesday. Winds will weaken to less than 20 kts Monday morning. Winds will increase again in the afternoon and evening hours, but gusts over 21 kts will be mainly for locations 40-60 NM west of the coast. Confidence for widespread gusts over 21 kt across the outer water zones was not high enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory for Monday afternoon/evening. However, by Tuesday afternoon, winds expected to increase again with a 70-90% chance of Small Craft winds through early Wednesday morning. Seas around 4-6 ft at 11-12 sec Monday into Tuesday. -10/03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for ORZ121. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for PZZ272- 273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

066 FXUS66 KMFR 061259 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 559 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .DISCUSSION...Our region is under the influence of a ridge, sandwiched between a closed upper level low offshore from central California and another along the coast of Alaska. After a chilly start this morning, this will produce warming and drying today with gusty easterly winds. These winds will be at a peak over the mountains from the Coast Range to the Cascades early this morning, then the late morning into early afternoon in the southern Rogue Valley from around Ashland to Phoenix. This includes a peak east wind gust of 33 mph recorded at 445 AM at Onion Mountain in Josephine County, which may be matched by southeast winds in southern Jackson County later today. Arguably, the other most notable aspect of today`s weather will be a Chetco Effect of downslope winds from the Coast Range, with a high around 80 expected at Brookings this afternoon. The rest of our coast will no be far behind with readings in the mid and upper 70s expected to be common. More broadly, widespread warming is expected this afternoon with highs a few to a dozen degrees above normal...in the mid 70s to upper 80s on the west side, mid 60s to around 70 on the east side, and 50s and 60s in the mountains. Tuesday will be more of the same with inland sites likely to reach their peak values for the week. 80 degree values will become more widespread. However, wind flow begins to shift towards the end of Tuesday, so the coast should see some cooler temperatures due to onshore flow. By Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a weakening cold front will push through the forecast area. This will result in cooler temperatures and a 15% chance of precipitation along our northern portion of coastline near North Bend and Florence. Some locations will see temperatures trend 10 degrees lower. By Wednesday night into Thursday, models have an upper level low just off the Oregon coast. Data suggests that there is a low 10 to 20% chance of precipitation Wednesday night in our region, although ensemble members really seem to struggle where to place it or if to produce any at all. Eventually this low will move onshore and the chances of rain will increase, especially for Friday into Saturday. About 70-80% of 00Z ensemble members produce rainfall in our area late in the week, but there is still a wide range of solutions regarding where, when, and how much rainfall to expect. This may include a risk of thunderstorms as the trough itself moves inland, with the highest probability centered over the east side around Saturday afternoon. Once the trough finally shifts inland, a scenario similar to our most recent large trough passage may occur with the flow aloft shifting from southerly to northwesterly and a colder, showery start to next week. -Smith/DW && .AVIATION...06/12Z TAFs...VFR conditions with mostly clear or clear skies look to continue across northern California and southern Oregon through Tuesday. -DW && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Monday, October 6, 2025...A thermal trough will maintain gusty north winds today through this evening, with the highest winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft expected beyond 10 nm from shore. This will continue a steep combination of wind wave and fresh swell across the waters this morning, then most of the outer waters through this evening. Specifically, all of the outer waters south of Cape Blanco and the outer waters north of Cape Blanco beyond 20 nm from shore. A brief period of calmer conditions is expected late tonight into Tuesday morning with north-northwest seas at 4 to 6 ft at 7 seconds. North winds and steep seas likely return late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday before winds weaken and turn southerly Wednesday night. The passage of a weak front is expected to bring an increase of northwest swell dominated seas early Thursday. This brief increase is forecast to be just shy of high and steep levels. Southerly winds will increase Thursday night and may reach the low end of advisory strength through Friday night as low pressure lingers offshore. The low is expected to move inland over the weekend with marine winds becoming northerly and increasing into early next week. These north winds are likely to be strongest south of Cape Blanco, and may reach advisory strength. /BR-y/DW && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 400 AM PDT Monday, October 5, 2025... Yesterday`s discussion is still valid, and included below. I did want to draw special attention by reiterating a few specifics, especially regarding winds over the area. Easterly winds over the Coast Range and Cascades will be strongest early this morning with peak gusts of 25 to 35 mph. Ridge top humidity recoveries will be poorest on Tuesday morning, though with weaker easterly wind gusts commonly expected at 15 to 20 mph. The southern end of the Rogue Valley, from Ashland to Phoenix is expected to see southeast winds of 10 mph with gusts to 20 mph now through Tuesday morning, except trending up to and then back down from a three-hour-long peak of 15 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph between 10 AM and 1 PM today. With fuels at moderate fire danger, (and minimum afternoon humidity expected to be just shy of criteria besides) antecedent conditions do not support the issuance of a Red Flag Warning. Additionally, gusty southwest winds are expected for northern California and south central Oregon Wednesday afternoon, then similarly gusty, windy south winds in the same area on Thursday with gusts of 30 mph possible for the southern Shasta Valley near Weed. -DW From Sunday...A thermal trough along the coast has induced offshore (east to northeast) flow that will persist into Tuesday morning. Gusts of 20 to 30 mph are already being observed in portions of the Rogue River and Siskiyou National Forests and we expect things to dry out across the landscape today through Tuesday with afternoon humidity bottoming out in the in the 15-25% range. East winds are expected to peak tonight over the upper slopes/ridges with gusts of 25-35 mph common, and the potential for up to 40 mph in the most exposed areas of the Cascades. Humidity recoveries will trend lower for Monday and (lowest) Tuesday mornings, largely remaining in the moderate range, but could be locally poor Tuesday morning. Monday night into Tuesday, however, east to northeast winds will be weaker, so there is less concern for critical conditions Monday night into Tuesday. Given that fuels have moderated substantially due to recent wet and cool weather, and many locations have lowered the fire danger to moderate or better, we`ll maintain a headline in the Fire Weather Planning forecast for this easterly flow event. Weak onshore flow returns later on Tuesday and daytime humidities will trend somewhat higher, and recoveries Tuesday night will be improved. But, major improvement will be limited to the coast until Wednesday night. Gusty south to southwest winds return to the region starting Wednesday as an upper level system moves southward just offshore, but daytime humidities will still be trending higher. There`s uncertainty on how far offshore this system traverses, but there could be some light rain along the coast as early as Thursday. While uncertainty in the details remains, confidence is increasing for a return to cooler and wetter weather late in the week and into the weekend. /BR-y && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

102 FXUS66 KEKA 060618 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1118 PM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS...Much warmer than normal conditions will continue Monday especially along the coast where highs could reach the mid 70s. More marine influence will gradually return through the week with light rain potential by this weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Over the past 24 hours, broad high pressure has generally come to dominate over the area. This has allowed for clear skies and warmer than normal temperatures to return to the interior such conditions will continue Monday with highs most likely in the mid 80s for many interior valleys. A cutoff low off the Central California coast will promote generally offshore wind, helping bring warm temperatures even to the immediate coast. Highs will most likely hit the mid 70s Monday afternoon even in Eureka and Crescent City. A weak trough will gradually dip across the eastern Pacific through the week. As early as Tuesday, this will turn wind back onshore, bringing a cool, diurnal marine layer back to the coast. By Wednesday, this trough will help break high pressure in the interior and generally cool conditions back into the mid and upper 70s. The trough moving onshore late in the week will bring the potential for light rain, especially for the immediate North Coast. Exact rain amounts are very uncertain, but generally skew towards the low end. Most deterministic models show the trough pulling up only very minor moisture form the south with precipitable water struggling to get much over 0.8 inches at most. NBM has only a 50 to 60% chance of light wetting rain along the coast between Friday and Saturday. There do remain, however, a few higher end solutions that show rain over 1 inch but also a large number of solution (40%) which show essentially no rain. Regardless of rain amounts, conditions will be cooler and more moist with thick midlevel clouds. Cold air on the back end of the trough combined with increasingly short days will likely bring some of the first chances of Frost by the end of the weekend. /JHW && .AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)...Few clouds are visible on satellite tonight, with stratus only visible off the Mendocino coast. Occasionally low visibilities have been observed at CEC, likely in the form of haze or ground fog, with minimal impacts expected. Offshore flow aloft is likely to keep skies mostly clear tonight, with low probabilities for any stratus formation. Winds are forecast to be light across the area for the next 24 hours. JB && .MARINE...Northerly winds and steep wind waves continue to ease. Steep wind waves will dip below 7 ft by Monday afternoon. Light winds are forecast to continue through the day Monday, but some isolated spots of breezy east wind are possible nearshore in channeled terrain. Northerly winds will then begin trending stronger Tuesday night through Wednesday. There is currently a low chance (25%) for wind gusts over 30kt for the outer waters on Wednesday, but these winds may be strong enough to be hazardous to small crafts. JB/JJW && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

809 FXUS66 KMTR 061554 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 854 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 ...New UPDATE, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 418 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 - Warmer and drier conditions through midweek, with moderate offshore wind expected today and Tuesday in the higher elevations - Unsettled weather returns late this week && .UPDATE... Issued at 853 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Clear sky conditions across much of the region this morning with offshore flow aloft. The exception is around Half Moon Bay and down along the Big Sur Coast as a very shallow marine layer remains less than 500 feet in depth. As a result of the offshore winds, temperatures will warm-up quickly this morning and into the afternoon. Maximum temperatures this (Monday) afternoon will warm into the low to mid 70s along the immediate coastline with low to upper 80s across inland areas. Downtown San Francisco has around a 12% probability of exceeding 85 degrees F with southeast portions of the city at around 25%. Places such as Novato, San Rafael, San Mateo, Redwood City, and Gilroy have a 30-50% chance of exceeding 90 degrees F. These temperatures are generally around 5-10 degrees above seasonal averages across the North Bay and Bay Area. It is going to be downright warm this afternoon (and again tomorrow). RGass && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 418 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 (Today and tonight) A relatively weak offshore upper level low will slowly retrograde during the day today while maintaining a fetch of weak offshore flow that will tame the marine layer from making progress inland. Low stratus should remain offshore and be patchy (if present at all) throughout the day from Monterey Bay down the Big Sur coastline. With offshore flow today we`ll see warmer than normal temperatures, with coastal communities feeling the biggest difference without much help from the marine layer. Overnight lows into Tuesday will be 5-10 degrees above normal with some elevated locations in the thermal belts 15+ degrees above normal along with poor RH recovery. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 418 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 (Tuesday through Sunday) Offshore flow will continue to influence max temps on Tuesday, with lesser certainty near the coast given weak mixed/to occasionally offshore flow late Tuesday morning into Tuesday evening. By Wednesday a weak offshore surface trough located somewhere between the Bay Area and the Big Sur coastline will further complicate low- layer vertical wind profiles, however temperatures overall across the the region will be cooler as the upper level disturbance begins to evolve into an open wave, move onshore and merge with a deepening trough to the north. The relatively weak/mixed low level flow along the coast should begin to become more steadily onshore by late Thursday into Friday. Rain chance increase Friday into the weekend, however there is still a lack of consensus in the overall synoptic pattern, along with the presence of a tropical system in the SE Pacific to further confuse the NWP models. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 418 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Good flying conditions today as light offshore winds keep stratus under control. Currently VFR across the board (exception KHAF, expected to clear by sunrise). Dry air from light offshore winds is resulting in clear skies across much of the region and will remain that way through today. A couple of exceptions will be Monterey Bay terminals (see below) and KSTS which has a slight chance of seeing some local FG impacts around sunrise. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Biggest aviation impact this period will be light offshore winds. Today and Tuesday, anticipating light NE winds during the morning hours until just after noon when onshore flow kicks in. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through today. As offshore pressure gradient weakens, marine stratus returns tonight into Tuesday morning. Low confidence in coverage since some dry air will still be lingering, and the marine layer will take some time to reform. && .MARINE... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 853 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 Light to moderate winds accompanied by low to moderate seas will prevail through Tuesday. An approaching system will begin to increase winds and seas mid to late week. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...Behringer MARINE...BFG Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

421 FXUS66 KOTX 061138 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 438 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry through Thursday. - Cold overnight temperature in sheltered valleys through Wednesday. - Unsettled weather over the weekend including the potential of light mountain pass snow and breezy winds. && .SYNOPSIS... Drier conditions expected over the weekend into early next week with chilly overnight lows and areas of frost. Temperatures will increase slightly through the week. Next weekend brings chances of unsettled weather and precipitation. && .DISCUSSION... Monday through Friday: Temperatures will be mild in the 60s and 70s early to mid-week thanks to shortwave ridging developing and a shortwave trough over the Gulf of Alaska diving south and retrograding off the coast. Clear skies and dry conditions will lead to frost development this morning in the Columbia Basin, Palouse, and northeast valleys. Cold prone locations such as Deer Park and Colville will reach into the low to mid 20s this morning. Chilly overnight lows in the upper 20s to low 30s will continue in the northeast valleys as the airmass is not expected to drastically change. While mild high temperatures in the 70s are forecasted continue Thursday, clouds will increase as the low is forecasted to be only a couple hundred miles offshore the WA/OR coast. Shower chances increase region wide Friday and into the weekend, bringing much need beneficial rains. Across all the mountains, there is a 50-90% chance of 0.25" of rain from Friday to Sunday. Those chances decrease to 40- 70% for the Spokane area, southeast WA, and the L-C valley. As in most cases, the Columbia Basin has the smallest chance to see 0.25"+ of rain (10-30% chance). The operational GFS and ECWMF show a secondary low dropping into southern British Columbia Saturday bringing a reinforcing shot of polar air (which has 60% support from the ensembles) into the region, which would bring chances for mountain pass snow in the Cascades and the Idaho Panhandle. This period will also need to be monitored for potentially strong winds as well associated with strong pressure gradients and cold front passages. From 5 PM Saturday to 5 PM Sunday, the probability for 2+" of snow at some of the mountain passes are listed below: Stevens Pass: 50% Washington Pass: 45% Lookout Pass: 25% Sherman Pass: 5% Cool and unsettled conditions will continue into early next week with potential for snow levels to reach near the valley floors in the northern mountain valleys. /Butler && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: Active fire activity in the Cascades near KEAT will result in smoke at the airport and MVFR conditions. Smoke is expected to slowly dissipate with VFR conditions by the afternoon. Otherwise, mostly sunny across the Inland Northwest with just a few passing high clouds near the Canadian border today. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions across the region except near KEAT where active fire active with result in smoke filled valleys and MVFR conditions. Low confidence on when smoke will lift as a strong inversion will be in place this morning. /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 66 39 72 42 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Coeur d`Alene 65 40 70 42 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Pullman 63 38 71 41 72 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Lewiston 68 43 75 46 76 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Colville 66 29 68 30 68 34 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 Sandpoint 62 35 66 38 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 Kellogg 63 42 70 47 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Moses Lake 69 37 71 37 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 0 10 Wenatchee 69 46 71 46 68 49 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 Omak 70 42 71 42 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 20 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Moses Lake Area- Upper Columbia Basin. ID...None. && $$

251 FXUS66 KPDT 061108 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 408 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 DISCUSSION...An upper-level ridge of high pressure extends from the northeastern Pacific Ocean into the Pacific Northwest. Beneath the ridge, clear skies coupled with predominantly light winds and a dry air mass (PWATs of 0.25-0.60") will facilitate efficient radiational cooling. Isolated near-freezing to freezing temperatures are expected (80% confidence) this morning for low-lying, cold- prone locations within the Yakima and Kittitas valleys, Columbia Basin, and along the Blue Mountain foothills; no Freeze Warnings have been issued due to limited spatial extent. However, have added a mention of frost in the forecast this morning as well as Tuesday morning. Elsewhere, more widespread sub-freezing temperatures are expected (80-100% confidence) this morning for central Oregon, the John Day Basin, and the Grande Ronde and Wallowa valleys. Freeze Warnings remain in effect until 10 AM for the aforementioned zones. By Tuesday, the ridge will flatten as a couple vort lobes drop south from the Gulf of Alaska and BC and carve out an offshore closed low. Analysis of ensemble clusters suggests a very high chance (>90%) that the low will deepen and spin offshore of the Pacific Northwest Wednesday through Thursday. Any precipitation associated with the low will likely (75% chance) remain pinned to the Cascades and their immediate east slopes. Ensemble clusters indicate the longwave pattern will almost certainly (>90% chance) become more progressive Friday through the weekend. While some differences in exact timing are apparent among ensemble clusters, all ensemble systems track the closed low inland over the Pacific Northwest Friday through Saturday, with a second shortwave trough digging southeast out of BC Saturday through Sunday. The combination of these two systems will facilitate medium-high chances (55-85%) of precipitation for the Cascades and Blues with a low-medium chance (20-50%) of rain for the lower elevations late Friday through Sunday. Snow levels will drop sufficiently low (4-5 kft) over the weekend to allow a medium-high chance (50-80%) of measurable snow in the mountains. Breezy westerly winds are also forecast Saturday into Sunday. NBM probabilities suggest a low-medium (30-60%) chance of winds reaching advisory thresholds, and the ECMWF EFI for wind and wind gusts ranges from 0.5-0.8 across wind-prone areas of the Columbia Gorge/Basin and adjoining foothill and valley areas. Plunkett/86 AVIATION...12Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. CIGs will be primarily SKC with variable light winds at all TAF sites. Bennese/90 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 69 40 74 43 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 69 45 74 48 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 70 37 72 40 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 70 41 72 41 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 70 38 73 41 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 69 37 70 38 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 68 31 75 34 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 66 35 72 42 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 68 36 73 38 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 73 44 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Freeze Warning until 10 AM PDT this morning for ORZ049-050-505- 511. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...86 LONG TERM....86 AVIATION...90

056 FXUS65 KREV 060702 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1202 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... * Below average temperatures today, then a warming trend arrives Tuesday into at least Thursday, with dry weather. * There is the chance for another system by the end of the week, but confidence in the details remains low. && .DISCUSSION... Sunny skies and warm temps will be the main theme starting today and going through at least Wednesday. This morning will be similar to yesterday morning in terms of temperatures, and through the week we`ll see the low temps increase by a few degrees each day. Same with afternoon highs, we peak on Wednesday in the upper 70`s across lower valleys and near 70 in the Sierra. High pressure will settle in early this week, giving us these warmer autumn days. Light winds are also expected today and Tuesday out of the east before they start to pick up on Wednesday. Once Thursday comes, temperatures start to slide a little bit but we are still looking at staying sunny and dry. We`ll be on the edge of an upper level trough that will be lifting by the time it reaches us. The system will eventually reach us on Friday, bringing cooler temps, gusty winds, and the chance for rain and mountain snow showers through the weekend. The onset of the precip is still uncertain this far out, but most ensembles and some deterministic runs have it moving in sometime Friday. Snow levels will drop rapidly overnight Friday into Saturday, where we could potentially see some snow showers above 7000 ft in the Sierra north of Tahoe. Again, a lot to solidify still in the upcoming days. These transition seasons, i.e. this time of year, is where we start to see these cooler systems moving through where they have a great amount of uncertainty, even 3 days out. But as alluded to earlier, where we are confident is that there will likely be a system pushing through late week into the weekend with gusty winds and some form/amount of precipitation. -Justin && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will continue today and tomorrow. Light easterly winds and mostly clear skies today, with FZFG near KTRK this morning between 09z-17z. -Justin && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

677 FXUS66 KSTO 052016 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 116 PM PDT Sun Oct 5 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Warming trend continues into early this week, with periods of breezy north to east winds into Tuesday. Chances for unsettled and cooler weather return late next week into next weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... * TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: - Dry conditions and seasonal temperatures prevail through mid- week. High temperatures will trend warmer through early this week, with Valley high temperatures in the 80s by Monday and Tuesday. - Periods of breezy north to east winds are expected through Tuesday, mainly during the morning and late evening hours. Breeziest areas will be through the northern and central Sacramento Valley along and west of I-5, as well as through gaps/canyons over the western slopes of the Sierra. - Temperatures trend cooler on Wednesday, with locally breezy onshore winds. * THURSDAY-SATURDAY - Clusters and ensembles depict an upper low approaching the region late next week which may bring chances for light precipitation and cooler temperatures, however forecast confidence is still low. - Precipitation impacts look to be minimal, with best chances over the northern Sacramento Valley, foothills, and mountains. NBM is currently advertising a 35-65% chance of precipitation amounts 0.25" or more over the foothills and mountains. - Temperatures will trend cooler late week into next weekend, with Valley high temperatures in the 70s. Periods of breezy onshore winds are anticipated as well. .AVIATION... VFR conditions across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Breezy northerly wind gusts 15-20 kts across portions of the northern and central Sacramento Valley until 00z Monday and again after 12z Monday. Northeast to east wind gusts 20-30 kts over the mountains from 04z Monday until 18Z Tuesday. Elsewhere, surface winds generally remain at or below 12 kts. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

969 FXUS65 KMSO 060905 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 305 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Widespread frost/freeze this morning and again on Tuesday morning - Dry with seasonable temperatures through midweek Flow aloft will become northwesterly this afternoon on the heels of a departing trough. A ridge of high pressure will build over the Northern Rockies early this week. Before the ridge becomes established, cold air leftover from the departing trough and clear skies will result in cold overnight low temperatures this morning and again on Tuesday morning. Expect low temperatures to be about 5 to 10 degrees below normal. The valleys of western Montana and the higher valleys of north-central Idaho will see lows into the 20s. Typically colder locales such as Seeley Lake, Polebridge, Philipsburg, and the upper Clark Fork and Blackfoot River valleys could easily see teens for lows. The lower valleys of Idaho and Clearwater counties will not be quite as cold, but do still expect frost in the mornings. Daytime high temperatures will rebound nicely, gradually increasing throughout the week to about 10 degrees above normal by the end of the week. Speaking of the end of the week, most ensemble model members are indicating unsettled weather arriving later in the week through the weekend, though timing and intensity are still rather uncertain. && .AVIATION... Dew point depressions of only a few degrees early this morning, along with calm winds, are pointing to fog formation this morning at all Northern Rockies terminals. Decreased visibility lasting until about 06/1500Z will be possible. Otherwise, expect light winds and mostly clear skies this afternoon and tonight as high pressure builds through midweek. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Freeze Warning until 10 AM MDT this morning for Flathead/Mission Valleys...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys. ID...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Orofino/Grangeville Region. && $$

761 FXUS65 KBOI 061508 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 908 AM MDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .DISCUSSION...Frost Advisory for the western Magic Valley will expire at 10 AM MDT. Next two nights will be similarly cold and we may need a Frost Advisory for the Lower Treasure Valley Tuesday morning. Days will be sunny and warming through Thursday then level off Friday. Treasure Valley may reach 80 degrees on those days. Then a strong cold front late Friday followed by showers and a steep drop in temps over the weekend. See Prev Long Term below for details. && .AVIATION...VFR with a few cumulus build ups over high terrain this afternoon. Surface winds: variable less than 10 kt. Winds aloft at 10 kft MSL: N-NE 5-10 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: variable less than 5 kt becoming NW 5-10 kt by Mon/21z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night... Morning observations show temperatures cooling into the 30s and 40s across most areas. Patchy frost in the western Magic Valley where temperatures will locally approach freezing. Drier low- level air will continue to move into the region today, and with upper ridging building overhead, a very quiet weather day is in store with little to no clouds and high temperatures a few degrees below normal. A warming trend will commence Tuesday into Wednesday with temperatures climbing around 5 degrees each day, with highs eventually reaching the mid-upper 70s in the lower elevations. Afternoon breeziness increases Wednesday afternoon in Harney County into far southwest Idaho, with peak gusts of 25-35 mph expected. LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday... A much more active and unsettled pattern begins to take shape into the weekend as a large offshore upper low transitions into an upper wave and shifts inland. Ensemble mean and deterministic model solutions are converging on a similar evolution, with the trough moving across Oregon on Saturday. A broad plume of moisture will extend from the Southwest US, partially related to what is now Hurricane Priscilla, with the interior Northwest along the western periphery of the plume. This will result in a increase in precipitation chances area-wide as early as Friday afternoon, but more probable into Saturday and Sunday. Instability appears limited at this time, which will limit convective enhancement of precipitation rates. Probabilities for more than 0.5" of QPF range from 50-70% over the Idaho mountains, to 10-30% elsewhere. Snow levels will initially start out quite high, but by Sunday decrease to 5000-6000 feet - enough for light mountain accumulations. Temperatures will also be significantly cooler, with current forecasts suggesting high temperatures in the 50s for many areas on Sunday and Monday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Frost Advisory until 10 AM MDT this morning IDZ016. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...LC AVIATION.....SA SHORT TERM...JR LONG TERM....JR

178 FXUS65 KLKN 060912 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 212 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 101 AM PDT Mon Oct 6 2025 * Near freezing temperatures in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada Sunday and Monday night. * Warming trend Tuesday and Wednesday. * Gusty south to southwest winds in Central Nevada Thursday afternoon. * Precipitation chances return to the forecast both Friday into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Another cold morning, with patchy fog and isolated areas of freezing fog, though most locations are expected to frost out later this morning. The cold mornings continue with patchy frost Tuesday morning, and even into Wednesday morning, especially for the valleys of Elko and Eureka Counties. High temperatures gradually moderate into the mid to upper 70s through Thursday with dry conditions. Winds will also increase on Thursday as a long-wave trough digs southward along the Pacific Northwest Coast and deep southwesterly flow develops across California and Nevada. A wide swath of the region from southern Elko County through northern Nye County has a 60-80% chance for max wind gusts in excess of 35 mph on Thursday. Moisture looks to increase into Friday, with greatest confidence in precipitation across northeastern Nye and into White Pine Counties with subtropical moisture streaming northeast, in part from the remnants of Hurricane Priscilla across the Eastern Pacific and Gulf of California. Best chances for thunderstorms will also be across these areas of southeastern and east-central Nevada Friday before the main trough and surface cold front move eastward into this weekend. This will bring snow levels down with increasing chances for mountain snow returning for this weekend along with high temperatures dropping back below normal. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in a dry pattern and warming trend through Thursday. Winds increase into Thursday with highest confidence (60-80%) in gusts of at least 35 mph across northern Nye, White Pine, and southern Eureka Counties. Forecast confidence remains fairly low this weekend with long- range ensemble cluster scenarios nearly evenly split as to timing of the main trough axis and associated surface cold front late Saturday into Sunday. Nearly half of the clusters lag the system into Sunday, with more clusters coming into agreement that a closed upper low will stall along the California Coast as additional energy pivots southward from the Gulf of Alaska. This outcome would lead to more unsettled conditions with scattered showers and mountain snow showers into early next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period across all terminals with light winds 5 to 10 kt primarily from the east- northeast, with lower confidence in southerly winds at times at KTPH from 20Z through 03Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns continue to remain low for the next several days. Temperatures will return to the 70s by mid week and minimum RH values will remain above critical thresholds. Still watching the potential for strong winds and additional precipitation Thursday through the weekend as another upper trough and surface frontal system look to travel across Nevada. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...84 AVIATION...84 FIRE WEATHER...94