
Severe thunderstorms are expected from the southern Plains to the Midwest through Friday night. Severe storm hazards may include large hail, severe winds, and tornadoes, some of which may be strong. There will be another chance for severe thunderstorms on Saturday for portions of Texas, the Lower Mississippi Valley, and the Ohio Valley. Storms could result in locally heavy rain and flash flooding. Read More >
Seattle, WA
Center Weather Service Unit
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069 FXUS66 KSEW 062202 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 202 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A warm front will bring widespread lowland rain and mountain snow for the highest elevations today with showers lingering into Saturday. A cooler system remains on track into early next week with heavy mountain snow and the potential for an early morning rain/snow mix for parts of the interior lowlands. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...A warm front is clipping the area today for light precipitation. With the warmer air mass the snow levels are higher and around 5,000 ft. We`re in the warm sector tonight and Saturday as the front lifts north and stalls over southern B.C. Temperatures on Saturday will be mild and in the lower to mid 50s. Rain chances increase on Sunday a cold front sags south into western WA. It will be breezy as well with gusts to 15 to 30 mph. Snow levels will drop Sunday night with a few inches of snow in the Cascades including both Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass. 33 && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...The weather pattern is cold and wet moving through next week with low snow levels. Strong, moist, westerly flow will hammer the mountains with potential for several feet of snow. Rates increase on Wednesday and Thursday which could make travel over the mountains difficult. Across the lowlands, with low snow levels, there is a rain/snow mix in the forecast Mon-Fri. The low level flow will remain onshore, though, which will help temperatures mostly stay above freezing and thus limit impacts. Snow levels will be rising on Wed and Thu and any snow would mostly affect areas close to the mountains. 33 && .AVIATION...A surface warm front will continue to pass through the terminals through the afternoon into tonight. Flow aloft will continue to remain northwest with this system with an upper level high well offshore. Light rain will continue through tonight into Saturday, with visibilities and ceilings expected to deteriorate on a larger scale tonight into Saturday morning (IFR potential remains highest Saturday morning, though brief drops to IFR will continue with the heaviest showers). Improvements to MVFR are likely late Saturday. Southwest winds 5-10 kt this afternoon will increase to 8-12 kt with gusts to 20 kt later this evening into Saturday. KSEA...MVFR to continue through tonight, with increasing chances of ceilings dropping to IFR Saturday morning through the afternoon, before improving to MVFR late. Light rain likely to continue through Saturday morning with activity tapering through the day. Southwest winds 5-10 kt will increase to 8-12 kt gusting to 20 kt later this afternoon into Saturday. HPR && .MARINE...A surface warm front will pass through the waters today into Saturday. No significant weather is expected with this first system, but rain and mist may lower visibilities to mariners at times. The flow pattern will remain largely onshore this weekend into next week. The next likelihood of impactful weather will come with the first trough of a progressive pattern later this weekend into next week. The next system Saturday night through Monday will send strong westerlies through the Strait of Juan de Fuca, with a medium chance of gale gusts occurring. The gusty winds are also expected to spread into the coastal waters, and the Admiralty Inlet with more confidence in the gusts affecting small craft at this time. Another system midweek next week will also produce gusty winds across all waters. Seas through Saturday will range from 6 to 8 feet, further increasing to 9-12 ft Sunday through next week. HPR && .HYDROLOGY...Heavy precipitation over the Olympics will force rises on the Skokomish River with the potential for flooding late next week. No other river flooding is expected during the next seven days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ 364 FXUS66 KPQR 062059 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1259 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Light widespread rain today transitions to isolated showers in the terrain and far northern Oregon/SW Washington on Saturday. Mild temperatures near to slightly above seasonal normals over the weekend. Colder air moves in from the north early next week, bringing low chances for low elevation rain/snow mix and light to moderate Cascade snow. Then, a non- impactful atmospheric river takes aim at northern Oregon and Washington Wednesday into Thursday, pushing out the cold air and bringing the return of widespread rain. && .DISCUSSION...Friday afternoon through Thursday...Radar imagery Friday afternoon shows a band of light rain moving through much of NW OR and SW WA as a weak front approaches the coast. Although high pressure is set up over the eastern Pacific, the Pacific NW remains on the eastern periphery of the flow, which is allowing moisture to continue streaming into the area from the north into the weekend. Once again daytime temperatures will be below normal for early March, peaking right around 50 degrees for the interior lowlands, low 50s along the coast, and low 40s to upper 30s over the Cascades. As high pressure over the eastern Pacific spreads east into the Pacific NW tonight into Saturday, the front will push to the north, also pushing precipitation chances north. Mostly dry weather is expected for Saturday, though can`t rule out a few stray showers along the coast, Cascades, and inland locations north of Highway 20, especially in SW WA. Temperatures will also warm around 8-10 degrees on Saturday, peaking in the upper 50s to low 50s for the interior lowlands, just slightly higher than normal (which is in the mid 50s). A low pressure system moving south from Alaska along the northern Canadian coast will cause the upper level flow to become zonal over the PacNW on Sunday. This will allow a weak front to push south through the Pacific NW on Sunday along with another round of widespread light precipitation. Temperatures will lower around 5 degrees, peaking in the mid 50s for the interior lowlands. A bit of a pattern change is expected early next week due to cold air intrusion into the region, leading to the potential for low elevation snow. Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement that cold air from Canada will funnel into the PacNW behind the front, especially as the upper flow continues deepening slightly Monday into Tuesday. About 75% of the GEFS, EPS, and GEPS members indicate 850 mb temperatures falling to -4 to -6 degrees C or colder by early Monday morning at PDX with nearly 80% of the members falling to -6 to -8 degrees C or colder Monday night into early Tuesday. Additionally, precipitation chances continue Monday into Tuesday as moisture continues streaming over the eastern Pacific ridge, and a weak shortwave along the flow pulls that moisture south into the region. Daytime temperatures each day will be well above freezing in the lowlands, so the main time period for any lowland snow potential is in the late overnight to morning hours when temperatures are the coldest. Snow levels will likely fall to around 1500-2500 ft by Monday morning as the cold air pushes into the region. For elevations lower than this, on Monday morning, there`s only a 10-25% chance of low temperatures falling to freezing for elevations below 500 ft, though there is a 25-50% chance for elevations above 500 ft. However, precipitation chances are expected to be showery and light, leading to low probability (less than 10% chance) for any accumulating snow. Coldest temperatures are expected late Monday night into Tuesday morning with a 50-70% chance of temperatures falling below freezing for elevations below 500 ft except for the Portland metro area (not including Vancouver), where probabilities are closer to 10-25%. Above 500 ft, probabilities increase to 70-90% chance. However, there are also lower chances for precipitation with light accumulations during this time, except for in the Cowlitz Valley. This is leading to only a 5-20% chance of 0.1 inch of snow for the Portland/Vancouver metro area and south, except for up to 30% chance for elevations above 500 ft. Chances increase to 30-45% for the Cowlitz Valley. Probability of 1 inch of snow is now less than 5% for locations below 1000 ft, except for 10-20% in the Cowlitz Valley. The other thing to take into account is road temperatures will likely be on the warm side since overnight temperatures will be in the 40s leading up to early next week. This will make it difficult for snow to accumulate on roadways as it will likely melt on contact. Ultimately, the most likely scenario is no accumulating snow below 500-1000 ft, though some snowflakes or slushy rain may be observed. Higher chances for snow are expected for elevations above 1000-1500 ft Monday into Tuesday, including the Coast Range, Willapa Hills, Cascade foothills, and Cascades. However, limited precipitation amounts lead to limited snow forecast over the majority of these areas. At this point, accumulating snow looks to be mainly for locations north of Highway 20, with a 40-60% chance of snow reaching 6 inches in 48 hours ending at 5 AM on Wednesday. The far northern Oregon Cascades and SW Washington Cascades are forecast to receive more precipitation. These locations have an 80-95% chance of at least 6 inches of snow and a 60-80% chance of at least 12 inches of snow in the same 48 hour timeframe. On Wednesday, moisture associated with a non-impactful atmospheric river will begin pushing into the region, pushing out the colder air mass as widespread precipitation returns to the region. Quite a bit of uncertainty remains in the timing of both the steady precipitation initiation as well as when the colder airmass begins warming. This is leading to a 20-40% chance for morning low temperatures below freezing for lowland locations outside of the Portland metro area (which has a less than 10% chance). This is once again leading to the potential for a rain/snow mix for some locations below 1000 ft, but similar to Monday, there is low chance for accumulating snow at the lower elevations. As the warmer air associated with the atmospheric river moves inland, snow levels are expected to rise above 4500-5000 ft by Wednesday evening. Additional moderate to heavy snow is possible in the SW Washington Cascades Thursday into Friday, but not much else south of this. In terms of other impacts, rain amounts will be steady, but flooding is not expected with this event. Current 48 hour rain totals ending 5 AM Friday are 0.5-1.5 inches for the interior lowlands and 0.75-2.5 inches for the coast, Coast Range, and Cascades. Higher rain amounts in general are expected to be north of Highway 20 as current guidance suggests the atmospheric river will aim towards far northern Oregon and Washington. Additionally, winds could get a little breezy at times, though potential for impactful winds has gone down. There`s now only a 5-20% chance for wing gusts of at least 35 mph for inland valleys and 20-35% chance for wind gusts of at least 40 mph for coastal communities. Next week is shaping up to be active, so keep an eye on the forecast! -03 && .AVIATION...Moist, north to northwest flow aloft continues today as a weak front pushes across the region. This will maintain light, steady rainfall at local terminals while conditions are expected to gradually deteriorate through the day and into tonight. Expect conditions to continue to trend toward predominately MVFR this afternoon as the front continues to push inland and CIGs lower. There is around a 20-40% chance of IFR CIGs after 22-00z at interior lowland terminals due to the potential for both lowering CIGs and reduced VISBY. Higher chances (50-60%) for IFR along the coast after 00-03z Saturday. Winds generally remain southerly around 5-10 kt. KPDX AND APPROACHES...As of 21z, MVFR conditions are in place with CIGs around 1500 ft and light rain reducing vsbys slightly. Expect these conditions to persist near the lower end MVFR, with around a 20-30% chance of IFR conditions after 22z this afternoon. Southerly winds around 4-7 kt expected to persist through the period. /DH && .MARINE...A weak cold front will push across the coastal waters today, bringing southwest to westerly winds with gusts up to 15 kt. A persistent northwesterly swell will maintain seas at around 6 to 8 ft at 10-11 seconds through Saturday. Another weak front will drop across the coastal waters on Sunday, with northwest winds behind the front likely producing gusts up to 20 kt, though there is about a 30-50% chance that winds reach Small Craft Advisory criteria, highest across the northern waters. The northwest swell is also expected to increase slightly, building seas to around 8 to 10 ft into Monday. A progressive weather pattern continues, with the potential for a stronger system arriving to the coastal waters by the middle of next week. At this time, there is around a 40-50% chance for Gale force wind gusts on Wednesday. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland 403 FXUS66 KMFR 062208 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 208 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2026 .DISCUSSION...Northerly flow aloft under the leading edge of a Pacific ridge is the guiding feature for area weather today. Mid and high level clouds are reaching the northern border of the CWA but are generally breaking up by the time they reach northern California. This flow is keeping slight chances (20-40%) of precipitation along the Oregon coast north of Cape Blanco through this evening. Other areas will see seasonable daytime highs under those passing clouds. These clouds are minimizing chances for fog development overnight, although patchy fog may develop in some low- lying areas. That ridge flattens and expands over the area over the weekend, bringing daytime highs 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Most areas will see highs in the low to mid 60s through the weekend. Low elevation inland areas in Curry County (Ex: Agness, Brookings) have a 70-90% chance to see highs exceed 70 degrees. Parts of the Klamath River Valley may see similar temperatures. On Sunday, the Pacific ridge is further compressed from the north by a low pressure system moving into the Gulf of Alaska. This will allow Coos, Curry, and Douglas counties to see a few degrees of daytime cooling while highs in Siskiyou and Modoc counties rise. This brings 70-90% chances to exceed 70 degrees to Highway 89 (McCloud) as well as 50-70% chances around Adin and south of Alturas. A Gulf of Alaska low lingers above the Pacific ridge to start next week, bringing zonal/slightly northwest flow aloft. Cold air advection to start to week will bring seasonal daytime highs on Monday and Tuesday, generally in the low to mid 50s across the area, and cool nighttime lows. For Monday night into Tuesday morning, low temperatures may reach freezing levels for west side valleys. Snow levels have come up slightly (in the 2000-3000 foot range on Tuesday morning and afternoon) and slight precipitation chances limited to the Oregon coast and Cascades north of Lake of the Woods. Significant winter impacts are not expected. While a zonal flow pattern looks to continue into midweek and beyond, there`s some uncertainty in how moisture will move along the zonal flow. The chances of moisture moving to our area from the Pacific is keeping slight but constant 20-40% chances for light showers along the Oregon coast and Cascades through much of next week. In the absence of an atmospheric lifting mechanism, shower chances for other areas are minimal. Towards the end of the week, long-term models diverge in their expectations. GFS meteograms keep zonal flow in place, with a few pulses of moisture bringing west side shower chances for next weekend. ECMWF ensemble members favor a strengthening ridge with dry conditions and warmer temperatures. At this point, nothing in the long-term forecast resembles a hazardous pattern. -TAD && .AVIATION...06/18Z TAFs...Overall, VFR conditions prevail across the region with areas of MVFR in the Umpqua and LIFR in the Grants Pass area gradually clearing this morning. VFR will prevail through the afternoon with some mid-high level clouds streaming overhead and isolated shower activity along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin this afternoon. Areas of higher mountain obscurations are expected today and tonight, especially from the Cascades west. Low clouds are likely to return to similar areas again tonight, but continued high level clouds should limit the extent of fog development for West Side Valleys. /BR-y && .MARINE...Updated 100 PM PST Friday, March 6, 2026...Swell dominated seas will persist into early Saturday, gradually lowering some this afternoon. Meanwhile, north winds will increase some this afternoon from Brookings southward, and this could lead to a brief period of advisory conditions this afternoon/evening. North winds increase and spread northward Saturday afternoon into Sunday, then persist into early next week. Steep seas are expected from Gold Beach southward by Saturday afternoon and are likely to persist into early next week. Areas of very steep seas are possible from Brookings southward on Monday. Improving conditions are possible around mid-week. /BR-y && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 5 AM PST Monday for PZZ356-376. && $$ 349 FXUS66 KEKA 061006 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 206 AM PST Fri Mar 6 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A warmer trend is expected entering the weekend with broad high pressure influencing higher winds as well as clearing skies. Temperatures reaching near record highs for the interior as well. && .DISCUSSION...Drier conditions continue for the next few days with skies clearing and temperature swings likely to produce daytime highs approaching record values. High pressure broadens over the NE Pacific with pressure gradients steepening over the coastal CWA. As a result, northerlies will ramp up through the afternoon and early evening Friday. Winds return Saturday late afternoon at the eastern periphery of Southern Trinity, Mendocino, and Lake counties at higher elevations. Consequently RH values in these areas will range the mid 20% at their lowest. Fuels are obviously not at play as we are still in the wet season technically but definitely something to watch as we enter the warmer, drier season. Additionally, we can expect clearing due to the effects of high pressure and consequentially subsidence. Clear skies will enhance the likelihood of long wave radiation, cooling temperatures down overnight which will be noticed Friday morning, hence the issuance of the frost advisory for zones 110-111, northern Mendocino interior. For the coast, conditions will dry through the week. High pressure will encourage a weak marine layer to form each night, but increasingly strong north winds during the day will encourage quick clearing each afternoon. Gusty north winds pushing close to shore will most likely bring gusts from the Gale conditions offshore and locally higher gusts on ridges. There is high confidence that slightly cooler temperatures will return by early next week as high pressure weakens, but there is little chance of wetting rain until late next week at least when about 20% of ensemble models show a weak trough crossing the area. /EYS && .AVIATION...(06/06z TAFS)...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Friday. Brief MVFR ceilings will remain possible (20% chance) around Humboldt Bay and KACV tonight and Friday. Robust N-NW winds 1000-3000 ft AGL will continue to result in low level shallow turbulence over the coastal mountains and vicinity, especially across southern Humboldt through 06/18Z Fri. This will be particularly hazardous for small and light weight aircraft. Boundary layer mixing will transport higher mountain air down to the surface on Friday as daytime heating commences. Gusty northerly winds are expected again for the coastal aerodromes and perhaps at KUKI. && .MARINE...Gale force northerly wind gusts are forecast to continue in the waters through Friday. The greatest coverage, longest duration and strongest gusts so far have been observed in the southern waters. Coverage was more scant with limited duration of gale gusts in the northern waters. Steep seas have risen to 9 to 11 feet at 11 seconds in the northern waters and 11 to 13 feet in the southern waters. These steep northerly waves will be hazardous for small craft through tonight. Hazardous seas are forecast to continue through the day on Friday. Gale force northerly wind gusts (35-40kt) will continue through Friday evening for the southern waters. After decreasing later tonight and early Friday, winds will increase to low end gale gusts for northern waters by early afternoon Friday. Hazardous ocean conditions with occasional gale force gusts and large steep waves are forecast to continue into the weekend, especially for the outer waters and around Cape Mendo. Northerlies strengthen Sunday into Monday with near storm force gusts expected for the southern waters by Monday. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Frost Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ110-111. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Gale Warning until 3 AM PST early this morning for PZZ450. Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for PZZ455. Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Saturday for PZZ470. Gale Warning until 11 AM PST Sunday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png 644 FXUS66 KMTR 062154 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 154 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 152 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2026 - Breezy winds through Saturday - Warm weekend with high temperatures 10 to 20 degrees above normal - Dry conditions through the extended forecast && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 150 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2026 (This evening through Saturday) All focus remains on the warm up over the weekend. High pressure is dominating the Eastern Pacific while an upper trough and cutoff low linger across the desert Southwest and Southern California. This pattern is having a two fold affect on the Bay Area and Central Coast forecast. First is the broad area of high pressure over the East Pacific. While typically a summertime pattern, it is having summerlike influences on our early spring time. Under this pattern we expect clear skies and warming conditions. This pattern also sets up winds out of the North along the coast. When this happens the area can experience coastal upwelling of cooler subsurface water. In turn this can lead to sea/land breeze circulation as well as some low clouds and fog to form in the lowest layers in the late day and overnight hours. The surface high pressure is being analyzed by the ocean prediction center at 1037 mb, which is a decently stout high for March. The second item is that of the upper trough/cutoff low. This is more of a wind steering items than anything else. When this pattern sets up, adjacent to the high pressure over the East Pacific, it takes the winds that would normally come from the North and veers them toward the Northeast. This means we can get a bit more offshore flow across the region. Offshore winds can bring adiabatic warming (downsloping) for many portions of the area. This pattern over the weekend will bring the warmth that is associated with a strong area of high pressure combine with offshore winds will cause temperatures for Saturday and Sunday to run anywhere from about 10-20 degrees above normal. Models typically handle this pattern decently well, but can run a few degrees too cool at times. Looking at the ensemble envelope we leaned more towards the 75th percentile of the NBM, but did this with the NBM EXP. The place that models do not handle well in this pattern is San Francisco. This is for a few reasons, but the biggest is being a small piece of land surrounded by water on three sides. We look at wind direction carefully to give us an idea of what will happen in SF during these pattern and Saturday morning (some degree Sunday morning) will see winds at 925 mb from the Northeast at about 30 knots. So far models have been a little weak on the 925 winds. Even so, with 30 knots and a coupled atmosphere, high temperatures for SF on Saturday have a good probability (greater than 70%) of exceeding 80 degrees in a few locations. No models will pick this up and forecast was manually adjusted to account for this. The piece to watch will the minimum temperatures for early Saturday and Sunday morning. If we start near 60 degrees in SF, it is almost a sure bet that SF will pop into the low to mid 80s. If we do it again on Sunday morning, the pattern is similar enough that we could pop again for a short time on Sunday. Everyone else around the Bay Area, rest assured, you were not forgotten. Numerical models handle your locations better than they handle SF. In short, it`s going to be a warm weekend. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 150 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday) By the time we get late into the weekend and into early next week, the pattern will shift. The stout high will retreat farther offshore, the upper trough over the Southwest will pinch off into a cutoff low over Northern Baja, and a bagginess in the jet stream will start to encroach upon the Northern portions of our service area. This will be short lived though as high pressure starts to reassert itself during the middle of next week. Model really start to diverge late next week with a few going back to a trough and bringing the area a chance of rain and several others holding on to the ridge and maintaining the string of sunny days. As we get through the weekend we`ll have more to say about late next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 926 AM PST Fri Mar 6 2026 VFR. Northerly winds are forecast to increase this afternoon before diminishing late in the evening and into Saturday morning. Gusty conditions will remain possible at times throughout the afternoon. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 152 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2026 Hazardous conditions will continue through this evening due to strong northerly breezes and rough to very rough seas. Frequent gale force gusts are expected to continue across the northern outer waters through this evening. Conditions will briefly improve this weekend as northerly breezes diminish and seas subside, yet hazardous conditions will linger for the northern outer waters. By Monday, strong northerly breezes and rough to very rough seas return. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...BFG LONG TERM....BFG AVIATION...RGass MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea 528 FXUS66 KOTX 061743 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 943 AM PST Fri Mar 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light snow in the mountains through early Friday. Minor travel impacts over Stevens pass. - Windy on Sunday with a strong cold front passage. - Colder with moderate to heavy mountain snow next week, especially over the Cascades and the Idaho Panhandle. && .SYNOPSIS... Light mountain snow showers into early Friday. A strong cold front will bring gusty westerly winds on Sunday. Next week is being monitored for the return of heavy mountain snow and windy conditions. && .DISCUSSION... ...WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY... Friday and Saturday: An offshore upper-level ridge will influence the Inland Northwest through early Saturday before gradually flattening as a series of frontal systems moves through the Gulf of Alaska. A weak warm front will shift inland Friday morning, reaching the Idaho Panhandle by late morning. Strong northwest flow aloft will confine precipitation primarily to the mountains, with a 15- 25% chance of precipitation across the lowlands of far eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Initial snow levels will support accumulations of 1 to 3 inches at Stevens Pass early Friday morning before rising through the day. A second frontal system will arrive Friday evening into Saturday, bringing higher chances for light lowland precipitation. A trailing cold front passage Saturday afternoon will result in breezy westerly winds with gusts of 25 to 35 mph across the region. Saturday night through Tuesday: The upper-level ridge will flatten Saturday night as a strong upper-level front moves through British Columbia, directing west to northwest oriented jet streak near the Canadian/Washington border. A deepening surface low east of the Rockies will drive a cold front through the region, which may eventually stall across the southeastern forecast area. Models are in good agreement for widespread gusty winds late Sunday morning into the afternoon. The strongest winds are expected from the lee of the Cascades through the Columbia Basin, Palouse, Spokane/CdA areas. Probabilities for gusts greater than 45 mph range from 50- 80%, with a 20-40% chance of gusts exceeding 55 mph. Winds of this magnitude would create hazardous driving conditions and the potential for isolated power outages. Ensemble guidance indicates the jet will remain focused over the Pacific Northwest into early next week. The Inland Northwest will be on the colder, northern edge of the jet, resulting in snow levels lowering below 1000 feet across north-central and northeast Washington, and the northern Idaho Panhandle. Snow levels will fall below 2500 feet for the central and southern Panhandle and southeastern Washington. Persistent active weather on Monday will bring periods of heavy mountain snow, with a 25% chance of snow totals of 12 inches or more at Stevens Pass. Wednesday and Thursday: Models suggest the arrival of another frontal system mid-week, bringing the potential for additional heavy mountain snow, gusty winds, and light lowland snow. National Blend of Models (NBM) probabilities indicate a 30% chance of 18 inches of snow in 24 hours at Stevens Pass, with a 20% chance of 10 inches at Lookout Pass. If these higher snow totals verify, significant travel impacts across the mountain passes would be expected. The northern valleys, Spokane area, and the Palouse also have 10 to 40 percent probability of receiving at least 1 inch of snow, though lowland accumulations will remain highly dependent on precipitation timing and temperatures. /vmt && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: A bank of MVFR stratus that developed with upslope flow between Pullman and Spokane will become scattered 18-20z and evolve into the strato-cumulus deck with cigs 4-5k ft AGL. This comes with moderate confidence given model trends and recent satellite trends. Confidence is only moderate given HREF probabilities of 20-30% for MVFR conditions to persist longer. In Central WA around MWH-EAT, mainly increasing high clouds through 20z. A frontal boundary will pass through the region this afternoon and evening with continuing moistening and light rain developing. Rain chances in the lee of the Cascades will be near 30% or lower. Higher chances for the rising terrain of E WA and N ID. Steady south/southwest winds with the front will result in lowering cigs with 90% chance to lower MVFR and 30-40% chance for IFR conditions. Widespread mtn obscrns expected over the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle 05-18z Saturday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low probabilities (20-30%) for MVFR stratus to continue for GEG- SFF- COE through the afternoon. Main uncertainty is how fast bkn-ovc cigs will develop LWS-PUW-GEG-SFF-COE this afternoon. Very low chances for light rain to develop ahead of the main frontal boundary but wouldn`t rule out sprinkles. Moderate to high confidence for light precipitation and MVFR conditions at KGEG, KSFF, KCOE, KPUW, and KLWS after 04Z. Moderate to high confidence in IFR conditions developing after 08-09Z over KGEG/KPUW. Fog threat is low given steady winds in place and MOS showing vis above 5SM. /sb ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 47 41 58 43 56 32 / 20 50 10 0 30 20 Coeur d`Alene 45 40 52 42 55 32 / 20 70 40 20 60 40 Pullman 45 40 55 42 53 34 / 20 60 30 10 40 50 Lewiston 51 44 60 44 61 40 / 10 50 20 0 20 40 Colville 49 35 55 40 57 28 / 20 40 10 10 30 10 Sandpoint 42 38 47 41 50 31 / 20 80 70 40 80 40 Kellogg 41 38 48 43 48 34 / 50 90 90 40 90 70 Moses Lake 55 41 64 43 62 33 / 20 30 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 54 44 62 44 56 34 / 20 30 10 10 30 10 Omak 52 40 59 40 59 30 / 20 30 0 10 10 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$ 003 FXUS66 KPDT 061747 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 947 AM PST Fri Mar 6 2026 && .DISCUSSION... The surface featured a trough across eastern WA while high pressure was nosing in from the west across the Oregon coast into SW Idaho. Fairly deep moisture can be seen across all 3 levels of GOES Water vapor imagery as composite reflectivity and METARs tell the storm of elevated showers across the Kittitas Valley and ran at the pass levels given the high snow levels right now. The HREF trends show a ramp up of hourly precipitation across the Cascades Crest with a strong rain shadow to the leeward side. Late morning rain and snow showers will also be found across the southern Blue mountains with snow along the highest points of the Northern Blue Mountains. A warmup is in store for the relatively dry period Saturday and Sunday as the Yakima Valley into the Columbia Basin, central Oregon and John Day basin warm though the 60s in the afternoons. Sunday night will bring the colder air still with rain/snow constrained to the mountain zones and adjacent foothills. A pattern change will ramp up precipitation chances areawide beyond Monday as both the EC and GFS mean versions of the AR portal show a zonal 300-500 kg/ms IVT signal moving well into eastern WA/OR. By Friday morning the Upper slopes of the WA Cascades could see a couple of feet of snow with the 25th percentile of the NBM showing about 1-2 feet and the 75th percentile in the 30 to 40 inches camp. A much larger uncertainty on the lower end of the range of outcomes for the Oregon Cascade slopes which while, the 75th percentiles still produces anywhere form one to three feet of snow, the 25th percentile only offer sub advisory level amounts (a few inches in many cases). && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... VFR conditions continue through all sites, except with some MVFR cigs reported at DLS. Showers will develop across the Foothills of the Blues later this morning into the afternoon, bringing PROB30 chances for the lower elevation sites. Precip will be more widespread going into the later part of the TAF period, but not anticipating PoP`s >30%, bringing PROB30 groups with MVFR conditions for most sites. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 53 44 63 43 / 20 40 10 0 ALW 53 45 63 47 / 30 50 20 0 PSC 59 45 67 47 / 20 30 0 0 YKM 56 42 66 40 / 20 30 0 0 HRI 57 45 65 47 / 20 30 0 0 ELN 50 41 57 42 / 30 40 10 10 RDM 50 35 61 34 / 20 20 0 0 LGD 48 40 60 38 / 30 60 30 0 GCD 46 38 58 35 / 20 30 20 0 DLS 53 46 62 45 / 40 50 10 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...71 AVIATION...95 389 FXUS65 KREV 062005 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1205 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty to strong winds are expected along Sierra ridgetops, especially the Eastern Sierra through much of Saturday and Saturday night. * A warming trend continues through the weekend, along with breezy valleys each afternoon. * Dry conditions and above average temperatures will be the theme through much of the next week, except for a quick cool down on Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... Not a lot of change in the forecast. Current conditions across western Nevada, the Sierra and northeast California show mostly clear skies with mild temperatures, light winds in the valleys and mid-slopes, and breezy to gusty winds in the Sierra ridges. Tomorrow, winds will increase in the ridgetops of the Sierra (especially the Eastern Sierra) with gusts potentially reaching 60-80 mph from the northeast as a jet streak descends towards the Eastern Sierra on Saturday. Fortunately, winds in the valleys will not be as strong with gusts mostly in the 20-30 mph range with the western slopes of mountains in the 25 to 40 mph range. Winds will quickly subside on Saturday night as the low continues its track towards SoCal and Baja California. Temperatures this weekend into early next week will be in a warming trend. By Sunday, many western NV and NE CA valley locations will be reaching 70F, and by Monday afternoon highs will be in the low to mid 70s. All thanks to an upper ridge expanding from the Eastern Pacific into the Great Basin. Chances for exceeding 70F on Sunday range from 40-90%, and above 80% for Monday in valley locations. The rest of the area will be in the 60s, with 50s or lower in the highest elevations of mountains. Next week, fair weather prevails with generally light winds and warm temperatures. There is a hiccup with a weak and dry cold front pushing south on Tuesday bringing slightly cooler temperatures. However, we bounce back right after. For the rest of the week into the weekend, we appear to remain mostly at the edge of the storm track to our north and the edge of the ridge over us. So, no significant impacts are expected in the extended period along with warm temperatures, dry conditions and light to breezy afternoon winds. -HC && .AVIATION... VFR conditions prevail through the weekend for all terminals. Chances for FZFG at KTRK tonight continues to be low, due to elevated ridgetop gusts. FL100 winds remain elevated through much of today, with gusts of 30-40 kts, bringing localized areas of LLWS and turbulence along the Sierra. -HC/Giralte && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$ 144 FXUS66 KSTO 062053 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1253 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty north to east winds through Saturday, strongest today - Well-above normal temperatures this weekend, with slightly cooler still above-normal temperatures next week - Dry weather is forecast through the weekend into next week && .DISCUSSION... ...Today-Saturday... The trough over the Great Basin will deepen today as ridging builds over the eastern Pacific and the Pacific Northwest. This will lead to continued gusty north to east winds through Saturday. The strongest winds are expected today with gusts 20 to 35 mph, and higher gusts over the mountains. Winds will weaken this afternoon, mainly in the Valley, before increasing again on Saturday with the strongest gusts of the day expected over the mountains. NBM probabilities of wind gusts greater than 30 mph on Saturday sit around 60-90% on Saturday west of I-5 in the Sacramento Valley, with a 50-60% of gusts greater than 40 mph over the mountains. Dry and increasingly warm weather is expected into Saturday as eastern Pacific ridging builds, with highs 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Valley highs on Saturday are forecast to be in the upper 70s to around 80. Humidity levels will be noticeably lower, due to the building ridge, warmer temperatures, and several days of northerly to easterly flow. ...Sunday-Thursday... Dry and warm weather is expected through this period, with above- normal high temperatures peaking this weekend. Sunday afternoon high temperatures will climb into the 70s in the Valley and foothills this weekend, with 50s and low 70s in the mountains. NBM indicates a 30-60% chance of high temperatures greater than 80 degrees across the northern Sacramento Valley, including Redding. Above normal temperatures continue into early next week, though a system passing to the north will briefly flatten the ridge with slight cooling noticeable Monday and Tuesday, then a bit warmer mid to late week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are forecast to continue over the next 24 hours. North to east winds gusting 20 to 30 kts will persist until roughly 03Z Saturday through the Valley. Gusty north to east winds will continue to remain elevated through the Delta and over the mountains through the overnight hours. North winds pick up again in the Valley tomorrow after 12Z with gusts 15 to 20 kts. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 152 FXUS65 KMSO 062010 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 110 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Minimal impact from light snow tonight and Saturday - Strong Winds Sunday into Monday, with a 60 to 80 percent chance of widespread gusts over 40 mph in the valleys. - Active Pattern for the rest of next week/weekend; potential for more wind and winter weather impacts. Satellite imagery this afternoon depicts a broad region of high pressure off the West Coast, and low pressure over southern Alaska. These features are working together to send a long fetch of moist air into western Canada and the Pacific Northwest under northwesterly flow aloft. Although the moisture will arrive in waves for the Northern Rockies, weather will remain unsettled well into the coming week. The first wave of moisture arrives tonight. Lack of appreciable large-scale lift will make the mountains do the work, so snow accumulations will be limited to the higher terrain and favor the long, north-south oriented ranges north of I-90 such as the Missions, Swans, and the Continental Divide in Glacier Park. Snow levels stay in the neighborhood of 4,000 ft. Travel impacts will be minimal, expect only a trace to a few inches over Lookout, Marias, and Lolo passes by Saturday afternoon. The focus on Sunday will switch to wind. A strong upper level jet will become positioned over northwest Montana and the Idaho Panhandle by Sunday afternoon. Model soundings indicate enough instability for upper level winds to mix down to the surface, where widespread southwesterly gusts of about 30-40 mph will be commonplace. Expect more isolated gusts of 50 mph, while the higher terrain will experience gusts of over 60 mph. High winds will become reinforced by a cold front passing overnight on Sunday, so High Wind Watches for all of western Montana will remain in effect through Monday morning. The Pacific ridge/Alaskan trough configuration will keep the upper level jet pointed at the Northern Rockies through next week into next weekend (March 14-15). The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) guidance for March 14-16 highlights a 20-40% chance of both high winds and heavy snow. While significant model variance regarding snow levels limits specific valley accumulation forecasts at this range, the period requires close monitoring for renewed winter impacts and at least moderate mountain pass travel disruptions. && .AVIATION...A few light showers persist south of I-90 in northwest flow, remaining mostly terrain-focused. Expect VFR conditions at all terminals into early evening with light winds, though occasional gusts of 15-20 kts are possible in well-mixed areas. A weak disturbance arrives after 07/0300Z, bringing moisture from a decaying atmospheric river. Expect increasing mountain obscurations and light precipitation through Saturday morning, possibly becoming a rain/snow mix in valleys by 07/1200z. Fairly widespread MVFR ceilings and visibility will likely develop across northwest/west-central Montana, including KGPI and KMSO. Brief drops to IFR category are possible under heavier showers. While shower activity will continue into the afternoon, it will become more focused over the terrain after 07/1800z. Mechanical turbulence near ridge top levels is possible late tonight and early tomorrow morning as ridgetop winds increase to around 40 kts. KBTM in particular may have concerns with LLWS. Winds will become more widespread and gusty between 15 to 25 kts in the afternoon as the atmosphere destabilizes. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...High Wind Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday morning for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region... Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower Clark Fork Region...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys... Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region. ID...None. && $$ 830 FXUS65 KBOI 062111 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 211 PM MST Fri Mar 6 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A chance of light precipitation on Saturday, then drier and warmer on Sunday. - A Canadian trough will bring cooler temperatures, mountain showers, and strong gusty winds Monday through Friday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/... An upper ridge will build in from the coast over the weekend. Weak warm advection coupled with high precipitable water content will bring increased cloud cover and a chance of precipitation from late tonight into Saturday. Amounts will be light with spotty coverage at the lower elevations. A cluster of high resolution models is showing light precipitation extending further southward, so have increased the probability for measurable rain to 15-30% across the lower Snake Plain west of Mountain Home and SE Oregon down to the NV border. A low chance of showers lingers over the w-central ID mtns on Sunday, north of McCall to Yellow Pine. Snow levels will start at mtn valley floors tonight into Saturday morning where up to an inch is possible. After some morning fog, dry and notably warmer temperatures will set up on Sunday as the ridge moves overhead. Warmer spots will see highs in the lower 60s, with the entire region reaching around 10F degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... Zonal flow aloft, directed by a Canadian trough, will continue to bring gusty winds, cooler temperatures, and mountain precipitation to the region for most of the period. The primary frontal passage will occur late Monday into Tuesday, with the best chance of precipitation over high terrain in northeast Oregon and southwest Idaho (30-50% chance). Westerly winds will increase across the region, especially Tuesday into Thursday. A brief period of dry conditions will occur early Wednesday, with uncertainty in the pattern by midweek. There are two main scenarios that are represented by the range of model solutions. The first keeps the bulk of the moisture and colder air north, with the Pacific High building in over the region. This solution would keep the region mainly dry with above normal temperatures. The second solution deepens the Canadian trough over the region, bringing cooler temperatures and widespread precipitation much further into our region. Deterministic Canadian and GFS models generally favor the first solution with the warmer and drier conditions, while the AI GFS and AI ECMWF favor the second solution, deepening the trough over the region. Current forecasts strike a middle ground between these two solutions, with warm temperatures and dry conditions anticipated over the Snake River Valley and the ID-NV border. However, the forecast also introduces increased precipitation (20-40% chance) over high terrain in northeast Oregon and southwest Idaho on Thursday-Friday. && .AVIATION /18Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 1046 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026 Generally VFR today, except MVFR ceilings over the Harney Basin lingering through most of the day. Localized MVFR/IFR conditions in light showers overnight, with snow levels around 4-5 kft MSL tonight increasing to 6-8 kft MSL late tomorrow morning. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt with afternoon gusts to 25 kt, except NW 15-25 kt with gusts to 35 kt from KMUO to KTWF, tapering off to variable less than 10 kt overnight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW-N 15-30 kt. KBOI...VFR. Light rain mid to late Sat morning, creating low VFR-MVFR ceilings. Surface winds: NW 10-15 kt with afternoon gusts up to 25 kt, decreasing back to NW 4-7 kt overnight. Weekend Outlook...LIFR-IFR conditions in patchy valley fog each morning. Low VFR to IFR in rain/snow and low clouds Saturday. Mtn obscuration. Mainly VFR and dry Sunday, except isolated showers over the northern mountains. Snow levels: 4-5kft MSL Sat AM rising to 6-8kft MSL by Sat PM. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt, afternoon gusts to 20 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....SA AVIATION.....SA 327 FXUS65 KLKN 040914 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 114 AM PST Wed Mar 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1248 AM PST Tue Mar 4 2026 * Periods of precipitation beginning this afternoon through Thursday evening * Increasing chances of accumulating valley snow tonight through Thursday morning * Breezy to windy conditions will develop today and Thursday across the forecast area && .UPDATE... Issued at 1226 AM PST Wed Mar 4 2026 No major changes were made to the near term forecast. Total snow amount forecast continues the trend of the highest amounts in northern Elko county and the Ruby Mountains where a winter weather advisory was issued previously. Added an additional wind advisory for central Nevada from Thursday morning into the evening as downslope northwest winds will make for a windy afternoon day. No other changes have been made. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper trough of low pressure will move into northern and central Nevada Wednesday evening into Thursday resulting in more periods of precipitation. Precipitation is expected to start as valley rain with snow levels staying above 6500 feet due to warmer temperatures, then transition to snow overnight as much cooler temperatures behind the front will drop now levels to 3500-4000 ft. Valleys could see up to 0.1 to 1 inch of accumulating snow with higher passes and summits seeing up to 1-2 inches. Mountains are expected to receive much more snow, up to 3-7 inches, up to a foot for Ruby Mountains. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for northern Elko County and the Ruby Mountains until Thursday evening. The cold front from the trough is also expected to increase winds across the area with speeds up to 15-25 mph, gusts as high as 40-45 mph. A Wind Advisory has been issued for central Nevada Thursday. Temperatures Wednesday will start out warm in the 50s to 60s with overnight temperatures dropping into the 20s from the passing cold front. This will lead Thursday to be much colder with temperatures up to 10 degrees below normal during the day. Friday, temperatures remain below normal as the low pressure system begins to cut-off from the main front and extend towards southern California. No additional precipitation is expected with winds staying breezy from the north/northeast at 10-15 mph, gusts 20-25 mph. Over the weekend, a warming trend returns as the cut- off low pushes south and warmer Pacific air moves in, increasing temperatures up to 10 degrees above normal across the region by Sunday and into Monday. Tuesday, models are showing the cut-off low to the south moving eastward and being absorbed into the next trough pattern across CONUS, however discrepancies arise with the extent of the trough, with some models showing more northwesterly flow over Nevada while others show a more zonal flow. This pattern will be monitored as it approaches as weather patterns differ depending on what the outcome is for the systems. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence of upper trough pushing into Nevada providing periods of precipitation. High confidence of valley snow Thursday night with much cooler temperatures behind the cold front. High confidence of high winds Thursday. High confidence of warming trend over the weekend. Low confidence of upper trough over Nevada next week. Adjusted wind grids to reflect higher winds Thursday. && .AVIATION... Look for VFR conditions across all terminals over the next 24 hour period with some light cloud coverage. Next weather impact is expected Wednesday afternoon with periods of rain and overnight snow. High westerly/northwesterly winds associated with the next system with gusts up to 20-30 kts, expected to be stronger on Thursday. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM PST Thursday NVZ031-034. Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM PST Thursday NVZ035-037-040-041. Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 7 PM PST Thursday NVZ039. && $$ DISCUSSION...86/97 AVIATION...97 |
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