613 FXUS66 KSEW 171015 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 315 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather for the next week with upper level ridge centered offshore. Varying degrees of low level onshore flow through the period. Low level flow becoming light northerly on the warmer days. Ridge building and drifting closer to the area the first part of next week for a small warming trend. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Satellite imagery shows stratus along the coast, over the Northwest Interior and down the Cascade foothills to about I-90. Low level onshore flow bringing marine air into the interior with temperatures at 3 am/10z in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Upper level ridge centered well offshore with northwesterly flow aloft over Western Washington the next couple of days. Low level onshore flow will weaken later today into tonight with northerly flow in the lower levels Thursday. Stratus over the area this morning will dissipate by 10 am/17z leaving sunny skies for the remainder of the day. Less stratus Thursday morning with the low level northerly flow. Highs today in the mid and upper 60s along the coast and upper 60s to mid 70s inland. A little warmer Thursday with highs near 70 coast and 70s to lower 80s inland. Increasing northerly winds Thursday afternoon. Lows tonight in the upper 40s to mid 50s. A little bit of troughiness developing offshore Thursday night into Friday switching the flow aloft to west southwesterly. This will send some high clouds our way but that is about it. Light flow continuing in the lower levels. Highs Friday near 70 along the coast and 70s to mid 80s inland. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Upper level ridge remaining offshore through the weekend with varying degrees of low level onshore flow ( increasing onshore flow Saturday weakening Sunday ). Offshore ridge building and moving closer to the area the first part of next week for a couple of warmer days. Highs Saturday in the mid to upper 60s coast and 70s inland, Sunday near 70 coast and 70s to mid 80s inland. A little warmer Monday and Tuesday with the coast in the lower to mid 70s and the warmer locations over the interior getting close to 90 degrees. No rain in sight the next 7 days. With the continuation of the above normal temperatures Seattle looking at a possible top 10 and maybe a top 5 warmest June if the trends continue. The first half of the month was the 10th warmest in Seattle and above normal temperatures will continue for the next week at least. Felton && .AVIATION... Currently VFR across all the terminals early this morning, with the exception of the coast. Latest satellite imagery shows marine stratus hugging the coastline and beginning to develop over portions of the interior. Latest guidance is still suggesting that the southern interior, Kitsap Peninsula, and coast have the highest chances of seeing MVFR cigs between 11z-20z, with latest probabilities between 30-65% (highest chances along the coast). Other terminals have a very small chance of 10-20%. Otherwise, VFR expected for all terminals this afternoon. Light to calm winds for the interior terminals early this morning. W/NW winds will increase this afternoon to 5-10 kt. Breezy winds expected along the coast this afternoon, with gusts to 20 kt. KSEA...VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light variable winds overnight will become W/NW in the afternoon and increase to 5-8 kt. Winds shift NE after 04z-06z at 5-7 kt. && .MARINE... Broad high pressure over the NE Pacific will keep weak high pressure over Washington`s waters. High pressure over the waters will then begin to weaken late Thursday as a low pressure system slowly moves across British Columbia through Saturday. As the low pressure system pushes to the east, broad high pressure over the NE will begin to build east into area waters and will strengthen into early next week. Elevated northwesterly winds and seas are expected across the coastal waters throughout the week. Guidance suggests a 70% chance or higher of 21 kt winds across the coastal waters, especially the outer coastal waters. Westerly pushes are expected through the Strait of Juan de Fuca this weekend. However, at this time winds look to remain below small craft thresholds, as the latest probabilities are around 20-35%. && .FIRE WEATHER... The return of low level onshore flow has eased fire weather concerns for the next couple of days. Elevated fire weather concerns return Friday and the first part of next week with a few warmer and drier days. Minimum relative humidity values are forecast to drop to around 30 percent Friday and during the first part of next week. Breezy conditions in the afternoon and evening hours combined with the lower relative humidity values could be problematic especially with the fuels continuing to dry out in the next week. Felton && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

654 FXUS66 KPQR 170932 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 232 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather with onshore flow persist through the weekend. Signal is increasing for hotter temperatures returning early next week with widespread Moderate to locally Major HeatRisk as high pressure builds over the western US, but uncertainty in strength and location of the high pressure brings uncertainty in exact temperature forecast. && .DISCUSSION...Wednesday morning through Tuesday...NW OR and SW WA remain situated between upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific and longwave troughing over the Midwest and eastern US. Under this pattern, onshore flow continues today with north to northwesterly winds across the region. Northwesterly winds along the south WA and north OR coast are allowing for another push of marine stratus along the coast early this morning. As this marine influence has continued for the past 24 hours or so, models are indicating marine stratus could form inland this morning with stratus spreading east/south along the Columbia River as well as along the western Cascades and back building into the Willamette Valley. Best chances are north of Aurora. Stratus should dissipate by midday, leading to mostly clear skies and high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s across the interior lowlands and 60s along the coast. Thursday into Friday, the majority of 500mb ensemble members indicate weak yet broad troughing developing in the eastern Pacific as high pressure lingers over the PacNW into the Desert SW. High temperatures will warm back up into the mid to upper 80s for the interior lowlands on Thursday and upper 80s to low 90s for Friday. Chances for reaching or exceeding 90 degrees remain around 20-45% for locations between Corvallis and Vancouver on Thursday but have increased to 45-75% on Friday. The weak troughing is slated to move inland Saturday, lowering temperatures again to the upper 70s to low 80s for the interior lowlands. There is no precipitation signal with this trough except for possibly drizzle along the coast due to stronger onshore flow. Ensemble members are in better agreement that troughing weakens as it moves east and high pressure begins building over the western US. This would allow for temperatures to raise a few degrees again back into the mid to upper 80s for inland valleys. The majority of ensemble members (75-85%) indicate high pressure continuing to build over the western US Monday into Tuesday, potentially bringing another period of widespread inland temperatures over 90 degrees. NBM indicates a 60-85% chance of temperatures reaching or exceeding 90 degrees both days for the interior lowlands. NBM has moderate probabilities for reaching or exceeding 95 degrees as well with a 50-70% chance between Vancouver and Salem and a 25-45% chance for the rest of the interior lowlands. However, the NBM 10th-90th percentile temperature spread is still around 15 degrees ranging from the the mid to upper 80s to low 100s. This is due to a combination of uncertainty in the strength of the high pressure as well as exactly where the axis will set up. Some guidance suggests the axis will be closer to the PacNW, which will lead to hotter solutions, where other guidance has the axis a bit more east, leading to the slightly cooler solutions. Also, note that this overall temperature spread has warmed from the previous two forecasts, leading to increasing confidence in hotter temperature solutions. Overall, the forecast over the next 7 days remains on the dry and warm side with Moderate HeatRisk for portions of the interior Thursday and Friday, becoming widespread with specks of Major HeatRisk on Sunday and Monday. Those sensitive to the heat, especially those without adequate access to air conditioning or hydration, should take steps to prioritize heat safety and keep an eye on the rising forecast for early next week. Also, remember that rivers and lakes remain cold despite the warm weather, increasing the risk of cold- water shock for anyone seeking relief near the water. -03 && .AVIATION...High pressure over the region will lead to persistent north to northwesterly flow through the period. Marine stratus has formed along the north OR and south WA coast and is expected to continue moving inland into the central OR coast through 12-15z Wed. Expecting mainly MVFR conditions with a 30-60% chance of IFR cigs between 10-15z Wed. There is uncertainty on whether stratus will form as far south as KONP, with a 20-50% chance of it developing at any given hour between 10-19z Wed. Inland, marine stratus will traverse east/south along the Columbia River and also back build off of the western Cascades into portions of the Willamette Valley. Expect MVFR cigs at Portland area terminals developing between 10-13z Wed with a 20-45% chance of MVFR cigs developing as far south as KUAO and KSLE. Conditions across all terminals are expected to improve to VFR after 18-21z Wed. Winds along the coast are expected to remain around 8-12 kts with some gusts up to 18 kts early Wed morning, increasing again to 12-15 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts after 18z Wed. Inland, winds generally less than 10 kts will increase after 20z Wed to 8-12 kts with gusts up to 18-20 kts. Winds expected to decrease after 06z Thu. The exception is KEUG where winds will remain elevated through the TAF period. High pressure intensifies late Wed into Thu which will lead to drier conditions and thus cloud cover will be more challenging to observe outside of the coastal valleys. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with northwest winds less than 6 kts. After 10-12z Wed, chances increase for MVFR cigs as marine moisture pushes inland along the Columbia River and produces marine stratus inland, funneling along the river and also back building off of the western Cascades. Expect conditions to improve to VFR by 17-19z. Northwest winds increase after 20z Wed to 8-11 kts with gusts up to 18-20 kts, decreasing after 06z Thu. -03 && .MARINE...High pressure offshore will maintain a summertime pattern through this week. Diurnally driven northerlies are expected to peak each afternoon and evening through the weekend. Winds expected to peak each afternoon and evening with gusts to 25-30 kts, decreasing a bit in the late overnight to morning hours. Seas around 7 to 8 ft at 8-10 seconds are expected to build to around 8 to 9 ft tonight then build to 8-11 ft Friday into Saturday as a fresh northwesterly swell builds across the waters. /DH/03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ251>253- 271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

867 FXUS66 KMFR 171134 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 434 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...17/12Z TAFs...Patchy areas of LIFR conditions are impacting the Coquille Basin as well as along the coast from Brookings southward. Expect improving conditions along the coast later this morning as gusty north winds (strongest north of Cape Blanco -- 25-35 kt) return. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with typical afternoon winds and increasing high level cloud cover && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 302 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026/ KEY POINTS... * Temperatures trend somewhat cooler today with a more noticeable cool down Friday into the weekend. * Elevated fire weather concerns Thursday -- dry and unstable conditions. * Thunderstorms pattern Thursday - Saturday, with best chances (40- 60%) on Friday. Focus for activity expected over northern California and east of the Cascades. DISCUSSION...Another quiet morning today. Satellite imagery shows some marine stratus along the coast from Brookings southward and in the Coquille Basin, with clear skies across the rest of the area. Another day of above normal temperatures is expected today, but will be slightly cooler compared to recent days. High pressure responsible for the recent heat will expand eastward today, and settle into the Great Basin region by Thursday. Meanwhile, weak energy will linger off the coast of California which will come into play Thursday through Saturday. After another uptick in temperatures (mid-upper 90s West/upper 80s-low 90s East) on Thursday with the thermal trough shifting inland, temperatures trend cooler for Friday into the weekend as an upper level trough passes through the region. Afternoon highs will still be above normal, but instead of being 15- 25 degrees above normal like recent days, it`ll "cool" to only 5-10 degrees above normal. The upper level pattern shifts on Thursday. That meandering weak energy combines with a few other weak shortwaves passing through in the westerlies and carves out a weak open trough over the eastern Pacific by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures tick upward a few degrees on Thursday under southerly flow, and it`s possible we see another triple degree day here in Medford on Thursday. The larger concern however, is the thunderstorm potential that comes with this pattern transition. It`s almost a guarantee that heat waves conclude with a thunder threat, and it seems this event is no different. Moisture and instability increase on Thursday, and there are some weak shortwaves passing through, but moisture is pretty marginal on Thursday. It`s more likely that there will be some cumulus buildups with a stray shower across northern California. As the upper level low moves closer to the coast on Friday, the chance of showers and thunderstorms increases. Current guidance maintains the best chances (40-60%) in the typical areas, across northern California and east of the Cascades, but there is the potential for as far west as Jackson County (10-30%, highest for SE areas). Storm motion is more southwesterly, shifting to westerly as the afternoon progresses and mid-level moisture sharply drops off farther west and north, so this should limit storm activity west of the Cascades and north of the Siskiyous. Storms are likely to be a mix of wet/dry with strong outflows. The trough axis moves through the region Friday night, taking the moisture and instability east of our region for Saturday. It`s possible some isolated activity lingers across far eastern Lake/Modoc counties early Saturday afternoon. The coolest temperatures of the forecast period are expected Saturday as this trough passes through. For Sunday through the first half of next week, lingering weak troughing on Sunday transitions to flat ridging on Monday, then to southwesterly flow on Tuesday as a weak trough swings through to the north. Temperatures tick upward on Sunday by a few degrees with a more notable warm up on Monday under building heights. Temperatures could flirt with the triple digit mark (10% chance) again on Monday and Tuesday for the Rogue Valley. We`ll need to monitor model guidance for that trough passing through to the north in the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe. Some guidance is hinting at the potential for thunderstorms across far eastern areas Tuesday afternoon, but we`ll also need to monitor for any potential gust winds/low RH resulting in fire weather concerns that typically accompany a dry frontal/upper level trough passage. Stay tuned for updates. MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Wednesday, June 17, 2026...The thermal trough pattern peaks today, then gradually eases through Friday. North gales will continue south of Cape Blanco today with very steep seas expected as far north as Cape Arago. Winds ease below gales on Thursday as the thermal trough weakens, but steep to very steep seas are likely into Friday. Conditions improve moreso Friday, but steep seas and moderate north winds are likely to persist through the weekend. FIRE WEATHER...Updated 100 AM PDT Wednesday, June 17, 2026...A weak marine push will bring improving recoveries this morning compared to recent days, but this improvement will be shortlived. The thermal trough will remain along the coast through Wednesday, then push inland on Thursday. This will maintain broad north through east flow across the midslopes/ridges, and poor recoveries are expected again tonight. As the thermal trough shifts inland Thursday, expect another uptick in temperatures across the region. Additionally, this pattern will bring dry and unstable conditions across northern California and east of the Cascades. Meanwhile, an open trough develops offshore over the eastern Pacific on Thursday, moving inland late Friday and east of the region on Saturday. This pattern sets up the potential for thunderstorms during this time frame, focused across northern California and east of the Cascades. Chances for thunderstorms are highest on Friday, but could begin as early as Thursday for southern Siskiyou and Modoc counties. Moisture remains fairly marginal for Thursday, but instability is present. Could just be some cumulus buildups with a stray shower or even an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon. As the upper level low moves closer to the coast on Friday, the chance of showers and thunderstorms increases. Current guidance maintains the best chances (40-60%) in the typical areas, across northern California and east of the Cascades, but there is the potential for as far west as Jackson County (10-30%, highest for SE areas). Storm motion is more southwesterly, shifting to westerly as the afternoon progresses and mid-level moisture sharply drops off farther west and north, so this should limit storm activity west of the Cascades and north of the Siskiyous. Storms are likely to be a mix of wet/dry with strong outflows. By Saturday, the best moisture/instability shifts east, leaving some lingering chances along/east of the Warners/Winter Ridge. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 8 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-370. Hazardous Seas Warning until 8 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-370. && $$

071 FXUS66 KEKA 170819 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 119 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 .SYNOPSIS...The intense interior heat will continue to subside today as high pressure weakens. A passing upper-level disturbance will bring temperatures down to near seasonal averages by Friday, along with a low probability of lightning strikes over dry mountain fuels. Key Messages: * High temperatures decrease through Friday, lowering heat risk. * Potential for dry thunderstorms over interior mountains late Thursday and Friday. * Marine stratus will persist near the coast, lifting gradually late in the week. && .DISCUSSION...The heatwave has peaked, with valley locations cooling down into the upper 80s to mid-90s under reduced HeatRisk categories. Along the coast, enhanced northerly winds should disrupt the marine inversion enough to clear coastal skies Wednesday afternoon, though a shallow stratus deck is expected to redevelop Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A distinct cooling trend takes place Thursday as an upper-level trough moves toward the area. This feature will introduce increased cloud cover and strengthen onshore flow. Consequently, interior highs will drop into the 80s by Thursday, while the coastal marine layer becomes deeper. Mid-level moisture advecting northward from the Sacramento Valley will interface with the cool pool aloft associated with the approaching trough. This setup introduces a 10 to 20 percent chance of dry thunderstorms across higher terrain in Trinity and Mendocino Counties during the late afternoon and evening hours for both Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will reach their lowest points on Friday before a minor warming trend initiates over the weekend. && .AVIATION...Early morning LIFR ceilings and perhaps even LIFR visibility from time to time will become VFR by afternoon Wednesday due to increased boundary layer mixing and increasing northwest winds. Current confidence (80% chance) favors return of low stratus and reduced visibility Wednesday night. The marine layer will become less compressed on Thursday, allowing for quicker afternoon clearing and stronger coastal sea breezes. && .MARINE...A tight pressure gradient between offshore high pressure and an inland thermal trough is generating a strong northerly winds across the outer waters, with gusts reaching gale force. This persistent fetch has generated steep, short period waves as well. Nearshore waters remain significantly calmer regarding wind speed, through the swell will maintain wave heights up to 10 feet through Wednesday. Conditions will gradually improve Thursday into Friday as the core of the strongest winds shifts farther offshore. && .FIRE WEATHER...Extremely hot and dry conditions over the past several days have driven Energy Release Component (ERC) values toward the 90th percentile across interior zones. While ambient temperatures will cool into the 80s and minimum relative humidity values will recover above 25 percent by Thursday, fine fuels will remain highly receptive to ignition. The primary operational concern is the risk of dry lightning Thursday and Friday evenings. Model guidance contains uncertainty regarding the depth of moisture, but instability probabilities support a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorm development over the mountain ridges of Trinity and Mendocino Counties. Any cloud-to- ground strikes will carry a significant risk of fire initiation due to parched state of the vegetation. && .COASTAL FLOODING...Perigean spring tides will peak Wednesday night near 9 feet shortly after midnight entering Thursday. Minor tidal overflow is expected to impact low-lying areas surrounding Humboldt Bay, including local roadways near Arcata Bottoms and some properties in King Salmon. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ103. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ415. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ450. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

972 FXUS66 KMTR 171203 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 503 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1245 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides anticipated across low-lying coastal areas. - Hazardous beach conditions through early Thursday morning with increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. - Minor HeatRisk through the end of the week with temperatures cooling to below normal. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 (Today and tonight) A marine layer 1000-1500 feet deep will bring extensive cloud cover to the coast and adjacent valleys this morning. Patchy drizzle has been observed along the coast and will continue through the morning, especially over the higher terrain. By the afternoon, clouds should retreat back to the coastline with mostly sunny skies. The marine influence combined with breezy onshore winds this afternoon will keep areas near the coast relatively cool, with highs mainly in the 60s to lower 70s. Overall, conditions will be very similar to Tuesday. Marine stratus will return tonight, along with patchy drizzle redeveloping along the coast. High pressure over the area will start to weaken today, which will bring about 2-5 degrees of cooling inland. This will place temperatures near normal for mid June with highs in the upper 70s to lower 90s. Most areas will see Minor HeatRisk today with only isolated pockets in the interior of Moderate HeatRisk. Despite the slight cooling, continue to practice smart heat safety (especially for those more sensitive to the heat) by limiting time outdoors, taking frequent breaks in the shade (if outdoors), and staying hydrated. Tidal flooding continues across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us the highest tides of the summer season. High tides are expected to be 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM early this morning, and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on Thursday. In addition, the long-period southerly swell continues, which increases the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean! && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 (Thursday through Tuesday) A trough off the coast will approach the area on Thursday and further weaken the ridge. This will continue the cooling trend across inland areas, with highs dropping by around 5 degrees. The trough will begin to move onshore on Friday. Shower and thunderstorm potential associated with the trough will stay primarily over the higher terrain to the north and east of the area as a deep marine layer greatly inhibits any thunderstorm potential. However, there will be enough elevated instability for a 5% chance of thunderstorms across far northern Napa and Sonoma counties Thursday night and Friday with lower chances to the south. The trough will help to deepen the marine layer Friday into the weekend with breezy onshore afternoon/evening winds. The inland cooling trend will continue with highs Friday and Saturday only reaching the 70s to low 80s at the warmest locations, or about 5 to 15 degrees below normal. Coastal areas will remain relatively cool due to the marine influence. Drizzle may also develop over the coastal waters and along the coast. Troughing will weaken by Sunday with ensembles in agreement that a ridge will rebuild across the West early next week. This will bring a warming trend, especially inland. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 429 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 Satellite shows low clouds have filtered in sufficiently this morning, with CIGs currently at all TAF sites, mostly low- end MVFR. Stratus has made it into LVK and SJC, likely to prevail there through 15-16z this morning. Intermittent -DZ possible at times this morning and again Thursday morning. The low clouds retreat back to the coast beginning around 16z, and VFR should prevail for all but the immediate coastal sites after 18z and into the afternoon as gusty seabreeze winds return. Gusts around 15kts through the afternoon, with highest confidence at SFO and APC. The marine layer will filter in again tonight with slightly lesser chances to reach LVK and SJC, which are expected to remain VFR for Thursday morning (moderate confidence). Vicinity of SFO...BKN-OVC stratus with bases around 1200ft MSL will prevail through 16z before slowly retreating back towards the coastline, potentially lingering nearby through 20-21z. Gusty westerly winds increase around 20z, with intermittent gusts up to 18kts through 07z Thur before weaker Thursday morning. Similar gusts for Thursday afternoon. Stratus fills in again after 07z Thurs, although MVFR CIGs may occur as late as 09z. Clearing likely by 15-16z Thur. SFO Bridge Approach...Stratus will clear this morning at a similar time as the terminal, 16-17z with VFR prevailing thereafter. Lesser chances for clouds Thursday morning with likely SCT MVFR for the bridge approach. 25-40% chance of BKN/OVC closer to sunrise on Thursday. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...Stratus with bases around 1000-1400ft MSL will clear by 15-16z from SJC, around 2 hours before OAK, with VFR for the afternoon. Gustier northwest winds develop after 20z, as high as 15kts. MVFR stratus will push into the area after 05z, although likely hold out from OAK until after 08z. Model guidance puts chances for a CIG at SJC Thursday morning at around 10-15%, but confidence is low to moderate for this given that stratus overperformed this morning. Monterey Bay Terminals...BKN-OVC bases 1000-1300ft MSL continue until around 17z, but stratus will remain in the vicinity into the afternoon, especially for SNS. Low clouds with similar bases moves into the terminals again this evening, potentially as early as 00z Thur for SNS, likely closer to 02z for MRY, prevailing through all of Thursday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 429 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 Fresh to strong winds will continue through mid-morning and then begin to ease, with onshore pushes maintaining moderate to fresh southwest winds for San Francisco and San Pablo Bays through the afternoon and evening hours. The same onshore push will impact the near coastal areas of Point Sur north to Point Pinos, and Pigeon Point to the Golden Gate. Expect light to gentle winds for the reminder of the week into the weekend with light to moderate seas and weak southwesterly swell across the coastal waters. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1245 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through early Thursday as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late tonight for CAZ006-505-509- 529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tangen LONG TERM....Tangen AVIATION...Zuber MARINE...JM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

623 FXUS66 KOTX 171108 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 408 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong westerly winds will continue through Tuesday evening with warm, dry, and gusty conditions bringing critical fire weather conditions. Winds will blow around unsecured objects, create strong cross winds and possibly result in blowing dust creating hazardous travel conditions. - Warm temperatures and remaining dry through the rest of the work week. - A passing weather system for the weekend will bring another round of breezy winds to Central Washington on Saturday. && .SYNOPSIS... Windy and dry conditions will result in critical fire weather conditions through Tuesday evening over much of Central and Eastern Washington. Strong cross winds, patchy bowing dust, and isolated tree damage will also be possible with winds as well. Dry and warm conditions will occur Wednesday through Friday before a weather system over the weekend brings breezy winds to Central Washington. && .DISCUSSION... STRONG DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING... Tonight through Wednesday: A dry cold front will continue to lead to critical fire weather conditions through the evening. In addition a mid level dry slot associated with an upper level trough passage, combined with a deep mixed layer will allow for dry air to mix down into the valleys with relative humidity bottoming out into the teens and low 20s through the early evening. Strong west winds will persist through the evening as well due to the persistence of a tight pressure gradient (Portland to Kalispell was at 15.6 mb at noon) along with mixing associated with the cold front. Sustained winds ranging from 20-35 mph with gusts of 40-50 MPH across the Columbia Basin has the potential to kick up patchy blowing dust as well. Confidence remains low regarding the coverage and degree of visibility restrictions with any dust that develops. Following the frontal passage, pressure gradients will gradually ease during the mid to late evening hours through Wednesday morning resulting in decreasing winds. Although it will remain locally breezy into Wednesday afternoon. Thursday through Tuesday: A dry west- northwest flow remains over the area Thursday and Friday, before another trough slides into British Columbia on Saturday. This trough will bring enhanced winds to Central Washington on Saturday as it enhances the cross-Cascade pressure gradient leading to breezy conditions and elevated fire weather conditions. This trough will drop temperatures slightly over the weekend. After this trough passes a flat upper ridge moves in for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures are forecast to remain above normal over the next 7 days. The warmest days are expected on Friday and Tuesday with high temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s leading to moderate HeatRisk for the East Slope of the Cascade valleys, Columbia Basin, and Spokane/Coeur d`Alene area. JW && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs: Winds will become a little breezy with gusts up to 15-20 kts by late morning and afternoon. Area wildfires will also produce some smoke and haze around the region. The Upriver Fire burning near KSFF will bring smoke into the terminal with IFR conditions due to visibility down to around 2SM for the morning hours. Smoke will lift as diurnal heating produces some mixing of the boundary layer. Impacts later in the TAF period for KSFF will dependant on fire activity this afternoon. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions aside from smoke impacts at KSFF. Confidence is low with when smoke at KSFF will mix out and how much smoke filters in again for Wednesday night as that will depend on fire activity this afternoon. /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 54 82 53 84 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 52 79 53 82 54 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 50 77 48 80 51 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 57 84 55 88 58 94 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 49 81 48 84 49 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 51 77 50 80 51 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 51 76 52 80 52 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 52 86 54 88 57 93 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 58 84 58 87 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 53 84 55 87 57 91 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau- Wenatchee Area. Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse - Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)- Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). ID...Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Idaho Palouse. && $$

739 FXUS66 KPDT 171153 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 453 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warnings in effect for Kittitas and Yakima Valley & Central Mountains of Oregon. - Breezy winds developing today and during the weekend. - Warming trend continues. && .DISCUSSION...Radar and satellite continue to show our dry trend prevailing in our area. The synoptic pattern explains that a ridge situated over the pacific is influencing the region, with tight pressure gradients developing next to a trough located over the Great Plains. This will introduce breezy winds across the area Wednesday (50-70% chance), with the strongest wind gusts located at/near the Kittitas Valley at 20-30 mph. Dry air with widespread minimum relative humidities in the 5 to 20 percent range prevails, with the driest air located just south of Central Oregon at <10% at times. This will yield elevated fire weather concerns with Red Flag Warnings called for the Kittitas/Yakima region & Central Mountains of Oregon through Wednesday. The ridge will continue to set over the region until at least Friday, where the heat trend will continue through Friday with highs in the 90s in the lower elevated areas. Heat Risk outlooks puts most of the same areas in a level `1.5` to `2.4`, broadcasting that the most susceptible people to heat events will be effected. Deterministic models are in good agreement that over the weekend, the ridge will break down and allow a cooling trend to prevail over the weekend (60-80% chance) and give a temporary break from the heat. Deterministic models are in agreement that a ridge will rebuild over the region, but the extent of the next warming trend is a bit unclear. NBM advertises that much of the Columbia Basin & parts of The Dalles have a 20-40% chance of temperatures exceeding 100 degrees. Fire weather concerns will continue through at least the next several days (>90% chance) with dry air and breezier air developing in-tandem. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/... VFR conditions prevail with no CIG or VIS issues expected over the next 24 hours. Main concern will be the wind developing to be breezy by the morning to late morning hours, effecting all TAF sites except ALW and PSC. Winds will peak for the breeziest sites at 20-30 knots for gusts and expect to last through the afternoon to late afternoon hours. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 84 51 86 54 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 84 56 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 88 54 90 58 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 89 54 89 61 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 87 54 89 57 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 81 51 86 57 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 86 45 87 50 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 81 48 86 52 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 85 46 90 51 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 85 57 91 64 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for WAZ690. OR...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for ORZ700. && $$ DISCUSSION...95 AVIATION...95

363 FXUS65 KREV 170735 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1235 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Summer-like heat will maintain widespread moderate to areas of major HeatRisk through Thursday. * Thunderstorm activity increases each day through Friday, peaking Friday. This will bring concerns for impacts to fire, recreation, and aviation. * Cooler and drier weather is favored to return over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Near triple digit heat again today for the lower valleys of W NV and NE CA, with the mid to upper 80s for our Sierra counterparts. Overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s will continue to provide limited heat relief. Thankfully, heat will subside by this weekend, with highs slinking back to the upper 80s and 70s for valleys and higher elevations, respectively. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances will increase both in probability and areal coverage each day through Friday. As for today, best chances (15%) for shower and thunderstorm development will be along the Sierra of Mono and Alpine counties, extending into the Pine Nut Mountains. An emerging ridge breakdown pattern Thursday and Friday will increase chances further, with a 20-40% chance for showers Thursday across the entire Sierra through the Tahoe Basin with isolated chances for showers in Lassen county of NE CA, as well. Thunderstorm chances Thursday range from 15-20%. Model guidance hints at showers and storms lingering overnight Thursday into Friday as the upper level low tracks further towards the California coast. Model soundings across the area show inverted-V profiles; with thunderstorms that develop, there are increasing chances for new fire starts from lightning. Friday will be the day of greatest concern, though, as shower and thunderstorm chances expand areawide; there is a 40-60% chance of showers with 15-20% chances for lightning. PWATs range from 0.6-0.8" with MUCAPE values ranging anywhere from 400-800 J/kg. Inverted-V profiles continue, so while some storms may produce brief, heavy rainfall, some may be drier in nature, which increases the risk for dry lightning. DCAPE values also range over 1000 J/kg, coinciding with outflow gusts over 50 mph. With the warm temperatures and healthy diffluence aloft, provided by the eastward track of the aforementioned low pressure, it will be quite easy for storms to develop. Make sure to check the forecast before you head outdoors and keep an eye and ear to the skies. -Giralte && .AVIATION... Near triple digit heat will pose density altitude concerns for western Nevada terminals. Typical afternoon wind gusts of 15-20 mph prevail with VFR conditions. -Giralte && .FIRE WEATHER... Hot and dry conditions continue through Thursday, with chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing each day through Friday. Overnight RH recoveries continue to be poor for much of the Basin and Range of western Nevada. Storms that develop Thursday and Friday will be faster moving, but a mix of wet storms and dry storms (dry lightning threat). Outflow gusts up to 50+ mph are possible both days, which will help rapidly spread any fires that develop from lightning starts. As a reminder, lightning can strike up to 10 miles away from a storm. The preceding dry conditions from this week will promote receptive fuels. With the greatest concern for thunderstorms Friday, a Fire Weather Watch is in effect from 8am until 11pm. -Giralte && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening NVZ458. Heat Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday NVZ004. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening NVZ423. CA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening CAZ270-278. && $$

208 FXUS66 KSTO 161858 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1158 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot, well-above average temperatures today with widespread Moderate HeatRisk and areas of Major HeatRisk in the northern/central Sac Valley. - Cooling trend begins Wednesday; near to below normal temperatures through the weekend. - Chances for mountain showers/thunderstorms along the Sierra crest on Thursday into Friday. && .DISCUSSION... While the hottest temperatures of the week have passed, we`re still expecting hot and well above normal temperatures to continue today, along with widespread Moderate HeatRisk and limited areas of Major HeatRisk. Valley temperatures in the majority of the Sacramento Valley will be in the high 90s to low 100s, highest in the northern Sacramento Valley. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for the northern Sacramento Valley, adjacent terrain, and Butte County through 11pm this evening. The Sacramento area and Delta will remain cooler than the rest of the Valley, though still are expecting highs up to the low 90s today. On Wednesday, a gradual cooling trend begins as upper level ridging begins to break down. Near to below normal high temperatures are expected through the weekend. While we`re not expecting widespread precipitation with this pattern change, there is an increasing chance (15-25%) for isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Sierra crest on Thursday and into Friday. Over the weekend, near to below normal temperatures are expected following the passage of an upper level trough. Warmer temperatures return early next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions with clear skies over the next 24 hours. In the vicinity Delta, Westerly gusts up to 25-30 kts are possible through 18Z Wednesday. In the southern Sacramento Valley, west to southwest gusts 15 to 20 kts are possible between 00Z-06Z Wednesday. Sustained winds 12 kts or less elsewhere. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Butte County Below 1000 ft-N. Sac Valley in Tehama County-Shasta County Foothills 1000-3000 ft-Shasta Lake Area & 1-5 1000-3000 ft-Shasta Metro-Sierra (Tehama-Plumas) 1000-3000 ft-Tehama Co Coast Range Above 3000 ft-W Tehama Co Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Shasta County 1000-3000 ft-W. Shasta County Above 3000 ft. && $$

604 FXUS65 KMSO 170852 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 252 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - A brief cooling trend today before an amplified upper ridge drives temperatures back above normal - A surge of monsoonal moisture Friday night into Saturday may bring thunderstorms capable of heavy rain and gusty winds to southwest Montana and Lemhi County High confidence exists among deterministic and ensemble guidance for a highly amplified upper-level ridge building across the Northern Rockies today and Friday. This synoptic setup will facilitate rapid warming, driving afternoon high temperatures into the mid-to-upper 80s across western Montana and the mid-90s within the lower elevations of central Idaho. High resolution models show an increased potential for showers to develop across western Montana this afternoon, with a few thunderstorms possible along the Continental Divide in northwest Montana. By late Friday night, a surge of anomalous monsoonal moisture will advect northward from the Great Basin, phasing with a weak shortwave trough. This combined moisture and forcing will yield widespread showers and thunderstorms, primarily impacting Lemhi County and southwest Montana through Saturday, with primary hazards including torrential rainfall and gusty, erratic outflow winds. Uncertainty remains regarding the northern extent of this convective activity, with some guidance projecting the precipitation shield advancing as far north as Missoula. In the wake of this trough, ensemble clusters indicate upper-level ridging will rapidly re-establish over the region, initiating another period of above-normal temperatures. && .AVIATION...Predominantly VFR conditions will prevail across western Montana and north central Idaho today and Friday under the influence of a building upper-level ridge. The primary operational concern will be isolated to scattered shower development across western Montana, with a few thunderstorms possible along the Continental Divide in northwest Montana near Glacier National Park after 17/2100Z. There is a 20 percent probability they could develop far enough west to impact KGPI. Gusty erratic winds and perhaps small hail will be the main threats. While widespread flight restrictions are not anticipated, terminal sites near the Divide may experience brief, localized MVFR conditions and gusty, erratic outflow winds from passing convection. Winds will once again be breezy from the west or northwest area wide this afternoon, with gusts up to 25 kts. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

136 FXUS65 KBOI 171206 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 606 AM MDT Wed Jun 17 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds and very dry conditions today. - A chance of showers and thunderstorms returns to the area Friday and Saturday. Storms could produce strong outflow winds and heavy rain. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Issued 311 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026 An upper level trough shifting eastward across the Pacific Northwest today will tighten pressure gradients across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. This will result in breezy west to northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph, with local gusts up to 35 mph, especially across the Western Snake River Plain and higher terrain. Combined with minimum relative humidity values dropping into the 10 to 15 percent range for lower elevations, elevated fire weather conditions are expected again today prompting the Red Flag Warning. Temperatures will be about 5 to 7 degrees cooler today from yesterday. Winds will decouple tonight as a weak transitory ridge builds into the region. Thursday looks to be a quieter, warmer day under the influence of this ridge. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s across the lower valleys Thursday. Relative humidity values will remain quite low on Thursday, but light terrain driven winds will limit the overall fire weather threat compared to today. More active weather is expected on Friday with an incoming low pressure system moving onshore over northern California. This system will bring an influx of mid level moisture and instability into southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho. Model guidance continues to signal a distinct threat for thunderstorm development starting Friday afternoon and evening. Given initial low levels remaining relatively dry, these storms will carry a risk of dry lightning and strong, erratic outflow winds, increasing fire ignition potential. Wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph with blowing dust is possible (10% chance) especially across southeast Oregon. The ridge will reach peak amplitude over southern Idaho Friday in response to the approaching trough bringing temperatures back into the mid 90s across the lower valleys. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued 311 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026 As the core of the low moves closer on Saturday, moisture profiles deepen significantly, bringing a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms and increasing the threat for heavy rain and flash flooding on burn scars. The best chance for thunderstorms (30 to 60%) looks to be across the higher terrain of southwest Idaho. With precipitable water approaching the 80th to 90th percentile, the strongest storms could produce heavy rain in addition to small hail and gusty winds. Burn scars, like the Wapiti Burn Scar, will need to be monitored for flash flood potential. Cooler air accompanying the system will knock temperatures down by Sunday, returning highs closer to seasonal normals. High pressure builds back over the region early next week, leading to a return of dry conditions and a steady warming trend through Wednesday. The upper level flow remains active and thus the warming looks to be short lived. && .AVIATION /12Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 604 AM MDT WED JUN 17 2026 VFR. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt this morning. W-NW 10-20 kt, gusts 25-35 kt from KMUO to KTWF/KJER, and also near KBKE this afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW 25-40 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: NW 10-20 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ424-426. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JDS SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JDS

508 FXUS65 KLKN 170939 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 239 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry weather and temperatures in the 90s through Friday * Heat Risk continues through the week for those sensitive to warm temperatures * Incoming weather system beginning late Friday increases chances for thunderstorms and light precipitation along with cooler weekend temperatures && .DISCUSSION... (Tonight through next Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Skies remain mostly clear this morning with light winds. This is due to upper level ridging over the eastern Pacific at this time. Look for the upper ridge will slowly move east today with its circulation centered over central Nevada by this evening. Winds will be out of the northwest and breezy with gusts 25 to 30 mph. Highs will be above normal with readings in the 90s. The weather will be quiet tonight with lows in the 40s and 50s. By Thursday, all models are showing the upper ridge circulation somewhere over the four-corners region of the United States. This will bring a southerly flow across central Nevada and allow some mid-level moisture to seep into the the region. Precipitable water values are expected to be around a half-inch with weak instability. CAPE values are fairly consistent with readings of 100-200J/kg. Will keep the isolated dry thunderstorms in the forecast for central Nevada. Little to no precipitation is expected. Surface winds are expected to remain below 15 mph, though thunderstorm wind gusts to 50 mph are possible with any storm. Highs will be in the 90s. Look for storms to eventually subside after midnight with lows in the 50s. On Friday, the ridge continues its eastward migration while a weak upper trough positions itself over the eastern Pacific. The upper flow will remain out of the south and moisture will continue to move northward across northern and central Nevada. Chances for storms will increase towards the afternoon. Forecast CAPE values are expected to be around 300 to 500J/kg with the highest readings in northern Nevada with modest instability. Winds will be out of the south at 10 to 15 mph in the north but will be stronger in the central with gusts to 35 to 40 mph. Any storm could produce outflow wind gusts to 55 mph. Highs will remain in the 80s and 90s with lows in the 50s. The upper flow will switch to a more west, then a northwest direction on Saturday and Saturday night. The showers and storms will continue but remain relegated to locales north of I-80. High temperatures will be about seven to eleven degrees below recent highs as readings top out in the 80s to near 90 degrees. Winds will be breezy with northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Look for gradually clearing skies during the overnight with lows in the 40s. Sunday through Wednesday, models are depicting the upper ridge returning to the area with highs climbing back into the low to mid 90s by Monday with lows in the 50s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: NBM forecast was adjusted to include isolated dry thunderstorms for central Nevada on Thursday, increase wind speeds/gusts on Friday across central Nevada, and increase isolated dry thunderstorm coverage across northern Nevada also on Friday. Confidence remains high in the near term as high temperatures remain in the 90s. Confidence continues to remain low on the coverage and placement of isolated dry thunderstorms in central Nevada Thursday and the dry convection in the north on Friday. && .AVIATION... Look for VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Late morning/afternoon breezes will be picking up after 18Z NW10-20G30KT. Expect winds to diminish after 02Z this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER...Weather conditions will be quiet today across northern and central Nevada. Some afternoon cumulus buildups are expected across the central Nevada zones with mostly sunny skies in the north. Elevated fire weather conditions will exists this afternoon across the northern zones as winds will be breezy with gusts 25 to 30 mph and minimum relative humidity values in the single digits and teens. The upper ridge will shift east today and is expected to be over the four-corners region Thursday. This will create a southerly flow aloft over central Nevada, bringing mid- level moisture to fire weather zones 425, 426, and 427. Outflow wind gusts to 50 mph Have kept the isolated dry thunderstorms in this area during the afternoon. By Friday, the southerly flow will continue and bring moisture north. Isolated dry thunderstorm coverage will spread to the north on Friday, leading to elevated to critical fire weather conditions. In addition, winds and minimum relative humidity thresholds are approaching critical levels across the central Nevada for Friday afternoon and will bear watching. Any thunderstorms Friday afternoon could produce wind gusts to 50 mph. On Saturday, expect cooler conditions with higher minimum relative humidity values across northern and central Nevada. Quiet weather will continue through next week as the high pressure system tries to reassert dominance in the weather pattern, leading to warming temperatures and drying conditions. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86