213 FXUS66 KSEW 051020 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 220 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A stronger frontal system will bring gusty winds tonight and Friday. A warm front moves northwards on Saturday for warmer weather. A cold front will bring another round of rain and gusty winds late Saturday into Sunday. The weather pattern remains active moving through next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...An upper level trough will cross western WA this morning with isolated shower activity expected (mainly in the Cascades). Otherwise, dry weather this afternoon with temperatures in the 50s. Tonight, a deep low will shift east into northern B.C. with increasing southerly winds across western WA. Highest winds will be along the coast and in the north interior (north of Everett) - Wind Advisories are in effect. Expect gusts to 40-50 MPH overnight with gusty winds easing late Friday afternoon. Most of the rain will be over the Olympic Peninsula and near the Canadian border tonight through Friday. The Seattle metro will see rain late Friday afternoon or evening and continuing Friday night as the cold front shifts SE through the area. Another deep low will track towards B.C. on Saturday but we will start the day dry as we sit in the warm sector. Highs on Saturday will be warmer and in the 60s. But as the low shifts closer, we will see another round of windy weather across much of western WA. The peak windy period will be Saturday evening through early Sunday morning. Per NBM guidance, there`s a 50 percent chance of seeing gusts 50 MPH or greater along the coast and north interior during this period. 33 && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Active weather continues through next week as the parade of storms impact the Pac NW. There`s little break in the action and each storm brings the potential for gusty winds, additional lowland rain, and high elevation snow. A larger swell train may reach the coast Saturday night or Sunday with the potential for 20 ft seas affecting the coast. 33 && .AVIATION...West to northwest flow aloft will continue across Western Washington today with post-frontal shower activity winding down. Ceilings will be a mixed bag of VFR and MVFR ceilings this morning as well as a few pockets of IFR across parts of the Southwest Interior and Kitsap Peninsula. Improvement to VFR is expected for most areas toward 18Z as mid and high level clouds associated with a warm front offshore begin to thicken across the region. Ceilings will fall to MVFR late tonight and early Friday across portions of the Olympic Peninsula and North Interior as precipitation associated with the warm front spreads onshore. Gusty east to southeasterly surface winds will develop late tonight into Friday across portions of the coast and North Interior. KSEA...Periods of MVFR will continue into mid-morning with shower activity diminishing. VFR conditions under varying amounts of high and mid level clouds are expected from 18Z onward into this evening. Surface winds southerly 8 to 11 knots easing this afternoon. 27 && .MARINE...An active period of weather across area waters is expected into early next week as a series of frontal systems cross the region. Winds will increase across the coastal waters, strait entrances, and northern inland waters later tonight into Friday as a warm front approaches the coastal waters and stalls. This system will shift onshore and weaken Friday night as an associated surface low makes landfall near the south end of Haida Gwaii. A complex and much deeper area of low pressure will lift northeastward offshore on Saturday night pushing a vigorous frontal system into the area. If models maintain their current trends, this system will likely generate gales across all area waters along with coastal seas easily crossing the 20 foot threshold. High pressure may briefly rebuild across the waters Sunday night into early Monday before another front arrives with the renewed potential for additional headlines. 27 && .HYDROLOGY...River flooding is not expected through the next seven days. However, a series of increasingly wet weather systems will bring rain (and high mountain snow) to the region, especially from Friday onward. While current forecasts are not expected to cause flooding, this will begin to saturate soils and raise base flows that could bring a concern with subsequent storms systems into next week. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Friday for Island County- Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-San Juan County. Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM PST Friday for Northern Washington Coast. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM PST Friday for Grays Harbor County Coast. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM PST Saturday for Grays Harbor Bar. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 PM PST Friday for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM PST Friday for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning from 2 AM to 2 PM PST Friday for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Friday for Admiralty Inlet. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Friday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

991 FXUS66 KPQR 051134 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 333 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Mostly dry weather today, though skies likely remain cloudy through at least this morning. Wetter and more active weather returns later Friday. Additional chances for rain late Saturday afternoon into Sunday, and Monday through the middle of next week. South winds become breezy later Saturday afternoon and evening. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Wednesday...Satellite and radar imagery early Thursday morning shows scattered light rain showers pushing east and decreasing this morning while a mix of clearing skies and developing low stratus is occurring inland. Brief upper ridging today will see dry conditions continue through tonight, though skies likely remain somewhat cloudy through the afternoon. A progressive pattern through the next week will bring repeated frontal systems into the Pacific Northwest, although light precipitation amounts are not expected to yield widespread flooding concerns. The next occluding cold front arrives early Friday morning. This weak system will result in less widespread rain, although the areas which do see more persistent rain are likely to end up with higher totals than the first system. Expected rainfall amounts are a half inch or more along the Clatsop and Pacific County coasts, between a tenth and a quarter inch elsewhere on the northern and central Oregon coast, near Portland, and across inland southwest Washington, less than a tenth of an inch elsewhere at low elevations inland, and minimal amounts in the Oregon Cascades. Another brief period of upper-level ridging with southwest flow aloft will see temperatures warm into the 60s on Saturday with largely dry weather across the region through the morning. Yet another frontal system will bring widespread higher rainfall totals from late Saturday afternoon into Sunday. While remaining relatively progressive, vapor transport aloft is likely to peak in the "moderate" range for atmospheric rivers. While this may produce heavier rainfall rates, the short duration due to the north-south orientation will limit total accumulations from becoming too impactful. Rainfall amounts on the west slopes of area terrain may reach a half inch from Saturday evening through Sunday evening (70- 90% chance), those along the Willamette Valley are much less likely (15-30% chance). Given the warm nature of this system, snow levels are likely to remain well above pass level. Will also mention a chance for strong to high winds along the north Oregon and south Washington coast late Saturday afternoon when there is around a 10- 30% chance for southerly wind gusts exceeding 58 mph, with the more likely scenario showing gusts along the coast of around 40-50 mph. Long-range guidance continues to support a fourth system affecting the region during the midweek period, but uncertainty in the evolution of this system, in terms of both location and intensity, remains high. There is potential for both higher vapor transport aloft as well as a longer duration of resulting precipitation over the region, which could combine to support more substantial rainfall accumulations. Given antecedent rainfall from earlier systems, some rise in background river levels is expected which could prime area rivers for potential flooding if rainfall amounts are high enough. A period of strong south-southwest winds may also occur at the frontal passage, with chances for peak wind gusts of 40 mph or higher reaching 30-40% along the coast and 5-15% along the I-5 corridor. 36/DH && .AVIATION...Through 12Z Friday...Northwest flow aloft today as high pressure builds over the area. Satellite imagery and surface observations from 11Z Thu depict a mix of LIFR, MVFR and VFR conditions across the air space. Scattered light rain showers are diminishing, being replaced with low stratus developing through the Tualatin and northern Willamette Valley. Given increasing cloud breaks with light winds and wet ground conditions, areas of fog and low stratus are expected to continue develop, resulting in fluctuating ceilings and visibilities with a complicated mix of LIFR/IFR/MVFR flight conditions. The lowest ceilings and visibilities are expected to occur between 10-18Z Thursday before conditions improve to MVFR/VFR thresholds thereafter. VFR conditions are favored after 20z Thu. KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR stratus has spread across the Portland Metro area and is expected to persist with CIGs gradually lifting through 17-18z Thu. If more clearing occurs, then potential for fog development and reduced visibility increases. Conditions will likely improve back to VFR after 18-20z Thu. Winds are expected to remain light and variable. /DH && .MARINE...An active pattern continues through the weekend as multiple frontal systems move across the waters. Light westerly winds this morning turn southerly again ahead of the next approaching system, while a westerly swell builds seas to around 9 to 11 ft at 13 seconds. South winds increase late tonight through Friday as the front pushes closer. A Gale Warning is in effect Friday morning through afternoon for coastal water zones north of Cape Falcon with gusts up to 40 kt expected. Steep and hazardous seas will also be possible later Friday as significant wave heights likely build to 14 to 17 ft. Winds ease briefly, but a stronger front is expected to quickly approach the area later Saturday, bringing more widespread chances for Gales (70-90%) across the coastal waters. There is also a 20-30% chance for brief Storm Force wind gusts north of Cape Falcon. Another westerly swell is expected to build seas into the mid to upper teens, with around a 25-45% chance of wave heights exceeding 20 ft. The active weather pattern likely continues into early next week. /DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM PST Friday for PZZ210. Gale Warning from 7 AM to 4 PM PST Friday for PZZ210-251. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST Friday for PZZ251. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for PZZ252-272. Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM PST Friday for PZZ253-273. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for PZZ271. Gale Warning from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Friday for PZZ271. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

681 FXUS66 KMFR 051209 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 409 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * High pressure will continue to build into Thursday and Thursday night with more fog and freezing fog Thursday night. * Temperatures trend warmer Friday into Saturday. * Another cold front will bring wetting rain to locations west of the Cascades Saturday night into Sunday morning. * The active weather pattern continues into next week. && .DISCUSSION... Not a lot going on this morning other than the freezing fog east of the Cascades and some fog and low stratus closer to the coast. The freezing fog is the bigger issue as KLMT visibility is dropping below 1/4 a mile at times. Last night some wind seemed to push visibilities higher. We`re not under a really strong ridge, so thinking the visibility could bounce around a bit this morning with a little wind, so we`re not issue a freezing fog advisory. None the less, some surfaces could still be slick this morning. A dissipating cold front is providing some lift over the region and the front actually kicked off a few showers near the coast. High pressure should be building into the day with 500 mb heights rising into 9Z Friday. However, models show a mix of mid level and high level clouds moving over the forecast area this afternoon and evening. Fog and freezing fog should fill into the valleys yet again as this mini ridge sets up Thursday night. The rapid refresh ensemble forecast system (REFS) is showing scattered high cloud cover Thursday night into Friday morning. However, we`ve seen fog form many times under these thinner clouds over the last few days. By Friday, a deeper southwest flow will set up over the region with the leading edge of an atmospheric river hitting Washington state and parts of British Columbia. This warmer flow should result in some warming temperatures by Friday and more notably into Saturday with highs in the upper 60`s and perhaps some 70`s within valleys west of the Cascades. Heading into Sunday, models show a low deepening to the west of Canada. That low will launch a cold front into the Pacific Northwest by Saturday night. The cold front isn`t that dynamically strong, although we`ll see some gusty southerly winds along the coast in addition to wetting rain. The latest PoP forecast has a 90% chance of rain along the coast with those probabilities lowering farther to the east with dry conditions in Lake and Modoc Counties Sunday morning. We`re not expecting any impacts with this rain during the weekend. Heading into next week, we still have moderate to low confidence in the forecast. Ensembles are showing an active weather pattern, although where the atmospheric river and moisture hit is still in question. Some ensemble members show all the precipitation well to our north while others hit southern Oregon and northern California. Some ensemble members are definitely on the drier side with some light rain or no rain while others bring a heavier rain with 2 to 3 inches falling over 6 hours. In any case, the PoP forecast is pretty consistent in the 20-40% range for most of next week, although it does move a bit higher towards 60% by Thursday the 12th. -Smith && .AVIATION...05/12Z TAFS... We`re watching some fog in the valleys this morning with Klamath Falls(KLMT) reporting visibility under 1/4 a mile. In other valleys fog may struggle to form due to some mid level ceilings and light wind. The wind was able to increase surface visibilities at times last night and that should hold true tonight as well. Otherwise, the fog and lower ceilings will burn off by the later morning hours with some more mid and high ceilings moving later today. VFR conditions are likely this afternoon into this evening with fog developing in the valleys again tonight. && .MARINE...Updated 215 AM PST Thursday, November 5, 2026...Seas will remain high as a swell around 10 to 12 feet at 15 to 17 seconds moves through the waters. These conditions will be hazardous to smaller crafts through the weekend. The sea state will worsen around Sunday as another cold front could produce gale force winds. A low deepening in the gulf of Alaska should produce a swell around 16 feet at 13 to 16 seconds Sunday afternoon or evening. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

578 FXUS66 KEKA 051129 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 329 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warmer temperatures with additional chances for light rain this weekend. * Stronger storm systems with heavy rain possible starting around or after November 10th. * Minor to possibly near moderate coastal flooding is likely around Humboldt Bay from November 7th to 10th. && .SYNOPSIS...Conditions will trend warmer and drier through the week and into the weekend. Another front will clip the area late Saturday into early Sunday, bringing chances for light rain for isolated areas. The weather pattern continues to look to trend more active mid to late next week. && .DISCUSSION...A series of strong NE Pacific cyclones will form and impact regions north of CA in the Pacific Northwest and BC. These storm systems sent a weak front over far NW California Tuesday evening and another one is expected Saturday evening into Sunday. There is a higher chance of rain for the weekend system, with 30-50% chance for over a half inch of rain for N Humboldt to Del Norte. Though the much stronger winds will be farther north over Oregon, some recent model runs have trended the trough farther south, so the wind threat will need to be watched for the Del Norte area. Currently probabilities for gusts over 35 mph are low for the coast and ridges of Del Norte. The NE Pacific troughs that pass well to the north will amplify ridging over the west. Temperatures will trend warmer in response. Ridging will peak Saturday when highs in some of the interior valleys are forecast to reach the upper 70s to 80 degrees, and this will be 10 to up to 20 degrees above average for the time of year. The longer term forecast still holds a signal for a more active pattern, with ensembles showing the potential for more impactful storms capable of heavy rainfall and strong winds. Non linear error growth through the farther extended timeframe leads to over- amplification of the large Pacific storm systems in the global models. This is evident in the growing variability in solutions, with half the clusters depicting 1-2 inches of rainfall and the other 50% dry through the 11th through 12th of November timeframe with slightly better agreement later in the 12-13th. Strong southerly winds would also be probable with an atmospheric river type of weather system. JJW && .AVIATION...(6Z TAFs)...A weak front is moving out of the area and skies are expected to mostly clear outside some of the interior river valleys. UKI is unlikely to see fog again early this morning, but still chances for lower ceilings or visibilities are around 15%. Chances of VFR conditions remaining at the coast through sunrise are over 60%, but some occasional MVFR ceilings are possible at CEC. Any clouds will lift and scatter by late morning. Winds generally remain light aside for northwest afternoon breezes of up to 10 to 15 kts. JB && .MARINE...Northerly winds gradually build today peaking in the late afternoon and evening with 20 to 25 kt sustained winds south of Cape Mendocino and 10 to 15 kt winds north of the Cape. Steep seas are possible in the lee of Cape Mendocino with these winds. A mid period northwest swell of 8 to 10 ft arrives today which will keep seas elevated. Combined significant wave heights may reach up to 12 ft. Winds will ease Friday and into the weekend, but additional northwest swells will keep combined seas above 10 ft through at least Saturday. Northerly winds are expected to weaken Friday and into the weekend as a weather system turns them southerly Saturday night into Sunday. The strength of these winds is still uncertain, but some moderate to near-gale force south winds are possible depending how far south this trough reaches. Behind this there is the potential for an even larger swell. The most recent model run is showing this building to around 13 to 15 feet at 15 seconds. However, previous model runs have shown this swell height as high as 17 ft. JB/MKK && .BEACH HAZARDS...An eastward propagating, strong Aleutian low will deliver a second long period WNW swell. The swell will arrive late Thursday with periods up to 20 seconds. The swell will peak at around 11 to 13 ft at 17 seconds Friday, bringing a low to moderate risk for sneaker waves. Sneaker waves are a unique hazard, with up to 30 minutes between waves. Large, unexpected waves can sweep across the beach without warning, sweeping people into the sea from rocks, jetties, and beaches. These sneaker waves can also move large objects such as logs, crushing anyone caught underneath. Even ankle to knee deep water can knock you down and drag you out when a sneaker wave hits. Pay attention and stay above the high water line and any wet sand to stay safe. If the ground is wet, waves have surged there recently. Stay safe and never turn your back on the ocean! && .COASTAL FLOODING...The positive tidal anomaly remains increased again, continuing bring tides higher than predicted. The increased southerly winds brought tides around 1.5 ft higher than forecast Wednesday at the North Spit gauge. Tides are officially forecast to reach 7.4 to 7.5 feet at North Spit on the 7th through 10th of November. The current range of tidal anomalies would bring tides up to and over the advisory level of 8.8 ft, and minor coastal flooding around Humboldt Bay. There will likely be periods of stronger southerly winds through those days, bringing higher confidence to at least minor coastal flooding, and perhaps near moderate. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Beach Hazards Statement from this evening through Friday evening for CAZ101-103-104-109. Frost Advisory until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ106-110- 111-114-118. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PST Saturday for PZZ450-455. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

238 FXUS66 KMTR 051124 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 324 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1246 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 - Slightly warmer weather arrives today - Coastal flooding due to high tides through Friday 11/13 - Hazardous beach conditions through Saturday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1246 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 (Today and tonight) A weak ridge is building over California. At the surface a 1028 mb high pressure center is parked over southern Idaho, with an inverted trough along the California Coast. SFO is reporting pressure around 1020 mb. The gradient between these two mesoscale features is supporting some NNE, offshore winds tonight. Mt. St. Helena is reporting NNE winds with gusts to 30 mph at the moment, which should increase a bit as the diurnal offshore gradient effect reaches it`s max in the pre-dawn hours. This ridge is bringing a warmer air mass and large scale sinking air. As an example of this, the 00Z sounding found a clear subsidence inversion in the middle troposphere. The 850 mb temperature is around the 25th percentile for this time of year, while 500 mb temperature is around the 75th percentile. As this ridge continues to build through the day, the warmer temperatures will descend closer to the surface. Max temperatures this afternoon will be around 5 degrees warmer than yesterday for most. Despite the warmer than normal air mass, another round of high clouds should keep inland temperatures from getting above the mid 70s. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1246 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 (Friday through Wednesday) The ridging pattern is here to stay for 5-7 days and the weak offshore gradient will stick around through Friday before flipping back onshore. That means the weather will be pretty boring for a while. Temperatures will be in the 60s along the coast and 70s inland into the middle of next week with no chance of rain. There is growing confidence that a deep trough will bring rain back in the forecast in the 7-14 day window. The ECMWF ensemble mean shows 2" of rain at SFO between Wednesday the 11th and Wednesday the 18th. That`s about normal for the entire month. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 324 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 Mostly VFR conditions have prevailed with high clouds over the SF Bay Area and Central Coast. Some patchy radiational fog has developed in the North Bay valleys with dissipation expected a little after sunrise. A moderate northwest wind will develop in the afternoon and evening hours, diminishing overnight. High resolution models are showing some stratus development inland tonight through Friday morning, but confidence in the extent is low and the TAFs remain VFR into the end of the 24-hour TAF period. Vicinity of SFO... VFR prevails through at least the evening hours. Light offshore winds will turn into a moderate northwest breeze in the afternoon and evening hours. As winds diminish tonight into Friday morning, low confidence for IFR-MVFR stratus impacts. Greater confidence at OAK but have elected to keep the TAF VFR at this time. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals... VFR prevails through at least the evening hours. Light drainage winds through the morning will develop into a gentle onshore wind this afternoon and evening, with a low confidence of IFR-MVFR stratus impacts this evening into Friday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 324 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 Quiet weather on tap for the rest of the week as high pressure builds into the region. Moderate to fresh north winds prevail through Friday and slacken to gentle to moderate breezes for Sunday. Moderate to rough seas prevail through the weekend. Chances for rain arrive for the middle of next week. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1246 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 Beach Hazards Statement: Hazardous beach conditions will be present at Pacific Coast beaches through Monday as long period (14-18 second) westerly/northwesterly swell will bring an increased risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents. Breaking waves of 12 to 16 feet are expected at exposed beaches. Spring tides will also increase the currents and bring higher tides than normal. Waves can sweep across the shoreline without warning, pulling people into the sea from beaches, jetties, and rocks. Stay off of jetties, piers, rocks, and other waterside infrastructure. Remain out of the water to avoid hazardous surf and never turn your back on the ocean! Coastal Flood Advisory: A combination of high astronomical tides and thermal expansion from warmer than normal water will result in tidal flooding concerns across Bayshore locations in the San Francisco, San Pablo, and Monterey Bays. At the San Francisco tide gauge, high tide is expected to be 1.3 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 8:35 AM Thursday 11/5, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 9:08 AM Friday 11/6, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 9:38 AM Saturday 11/7, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:06 AM Sunday 11/8, 1.6 ft above normal (7.4 ft MLLW) at 10:35 AM Monday 11/9, 1.5 ft above normal (7.3 ft MLLW) at 11:04 AM Tuesday 11/10, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 11:35 AM Wednesday 11/11, 1.4 ft above normal (7.2 ft MLLW) at 12:10 PM Thursday 11/12, 1.2 ft above normal (7.0 ft MLLW) at 12:49 PM Friday 11/13. These predictions include up to 1.5 ft of surge that will enhance the astronomical tide and flooding threat. High tide varies up to 90 minutes earlier or later along the Pacific Coast and through the San Francisco Bay, respectively. In addition, long-period swell will create hazardous conditions along the Pacific coast beaches with an increased risk of sneaker waves and rip currents. These Spring Tides are due to a new moon on Monday, which is much lower in the sky this time of year compared to a full moon. In 2 weeks, the astronomical tides will be about 0.8` higher than this round, and the total water level could be more than a foot higher if we get SW winds and/or lower pressure. This combination would bring the total water level near the 1% annual exceedance probability (2.85` above normal), or a 1 in 100 year event. Something to keep an eye on for the week of Thanksgiving. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for CAZ006-506-508- 530. Beach Hazards Statement through Monday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to noon PST Tuesday for CAZ505-509-529. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

060 FXUS66 KOTX 051147 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 347 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Light rain Thursday. - Additional systems arrive Friday into early next week, with light rain and mountain snow chances. && .SYNOPSIS... Incoming wave will bring light precipitation Thursday. Unsettled conditions continue into the weekend and early next week. Increased rain chances across the region with weak atmospheric river next week. && .DISCUSSION... Thursday and Thursday night: A cold front will continue to track across eastern WA into ID into Thursday morning, before weak high pressure builds in Thursday night. A line of light precipitation will track over central into eastern WA through mid-morning, progressing to ID from late morning to afternoon. Some lingering orographic showers are also possible around the Cascades, but these look isolated. Precipitation chances wane for tonight Snow levels will be around 4.5-5.5kft, locally near 3.5-4kt near the Canadian border in the morning. So mainly valley rain and mountain snow is forecast, though some rain/snow mix is possible near Canadian border valleys early. Rain amounts are generally forecast to be less than 0.10 inches; the lowest are forecast in the lee of the Cascades to central WA at a trace to 0.02 inches. An exception will be the Cascade crest, where storm total precipitation amounts from Wednesday night through this afternoon are forecast between 0.10 to 0.30 inches. Most of the that will have fallen overnight/early this morning. Mountain snow accumulations will generally be less than 0.5 inches, except locally up 1 inch near the Cascade crest. The main passes that may see accumulation will be Washington and Sherman, but they will be on that lighter range. The other impact will be the low clouds and fog. Fog will be most likely this morning and again later tonight into Friday morning. Low clouds were slow to erode yesterday and that slow erosion is forecast to today over the eastern third of WA and north ID Valleys; with some models suggesting the stratus does not break significantly until mid to late afternoon, possibly not until sunset. Winds do increase slightly over southeast WA, with gusts of 10-15 mph before dissipating in the late afternoon. The winds should limited the fog somewhat in the afternoon and evening. However late tonight into Friday morning the decreasing winds and recent rain, along with the southeast flow developing seems a moderate pattern for fog development. I do not think the NBM is handling it well and the RRFS is very expansive with it, while the REFS is more tempered. Somewhere in the middle of all this supports the development across the Upper Columbia Basin, Palouse, Spokane/CdA area and northeast valleys. Confidence in intensity and coverage is only fair, so those details will be fine-tuned; but we seem to be having some foggy days of late. Highs will be in the mid-40s to mid-50s today, with some upper 50s in the deeper basin. Lows tonight will be in the largely in the 30s, with some upper 20s in the sheltered northern valleys. Friday to Saturday: The Inland NW transitions to stronger zonal flow, with a warm front lifting into the area. Friday looks mostly cloudy, with the combination of the stratus/AM fog and middle to high clouds spreading over the region. Precipitation chances come to the Cascades Friday morning, expanding toward the Upper Columbia Basin in the afternoon and across northeast WA and north ID Friday night as the warm front lifts north. Snow levels start near 3.5-4.5kft Friday AM, rising to 6-9kft by Friday evening. So this will be mainly mountain snow and valley rain, changing to mostly rain. By Saturday the moisture lifts north, leading to drier weather with more sun. Highs will be in the mid-40s to lower 50s Friday, warming to the 50s to low 60s Saturday. Friday will be a bit breezy over the Okanogan Valley to Upper Columbia Basin, with gust near 10-20 mph. Some of that breeziness will be possible around the Palouse Saturday. Saturday night to Wednesday: The pattern remains progressive with a series of systems tracking by the area; agreement starts to break down by Wednesday. The strongest of these systems comes by Saturday night into Sunday, with sharp trough and 115kt jet. Precipitation chances expand into the Cascades Saturday night and spread toward the eastern third of WA and ID by Sunday. The westerly flow will tend to shadow out lee of the Cascades and limit the QPF over the eastern CWA. Snow levels start at 6-8kft, dropping to 4.5-7kft by Sunday evening with lowest near the Cascades. Drier weather comes Sunday night into Monday, then additional waves will bring precipitation chances across the area Monday night, Tuesday and Wednesday. Snow level drop to between 3-6kft Monday, lowest again near the Cascades, the moderate toward 5.5-7.5kft Tuesday into Wednesday. These latter system will have a bit better chance of measurable precipitation away from the Cascades, but overall wetting rain chances will be limited, except in the Cascades. For the Cascades for the Saturday night/Sunday system 0.25 to 0.75 inches are forecast, then 0.15 to 0.60 inches with each of the next couple systems. As for snow amounts, right now it is early but it is translating to 1 to 4 inches of snow, locally higher around the higher mountains Sunday, with the main potential impact for the passes at Washington Pass. Then 0.5 to 2.5 inches for the next two systems. Sunday is also forecast to feature breezy/gusty southwest winds across the Waterville Plateau to north Idaho and south into the Columbia Basin. Gusts of 20-30 mph are currently possible, strongest across the Waterville Plateau to Upper Columbia Basin. Highs will largely be in the 50s, with lows in the 30s and some upper 30s in the northern valleys. /Solveig && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: A band of precipitation is moving across eastern Washington early this morning. Expect it to quickly trek eastward into north Idaho through the morning, transitioning to isolated showers over the mountains Thursday afternoon. Widespread LIFR to MVFR conditions are being observed with light winds and increased boundary layer moisture. As the precipitation exits, fog and stratus will be slow to erode across the TAF sites. The best chances for improvement to VFR today will be at KMWH, KEAT, and KLWS, with models favoring IFR/MVFR conditions continuing through the afternoon at KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW. KPUW looks to return to VFR after 01Z as the surface winds pick up from the east. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE: There is high confidence in widespread reductions at the TAF sites through the morning, with moderate to high confidence for KEAT/KMWH/KLWS to clear out around 17-20Z. There is low confidence if clearing will happen at all at KGEG/KCOE/KSFF and moderate confidence in KPUW clearing out after 01Z. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 49 36 51 38 59 41 / 60 0 0 20 10 0 Coeur d`Alene 47 35 50 40 59 41 / 50 10 0 20 10 0 Pullman 49 35 48 38 58 40 / 70 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 55 38 52 41 62 43 / 70 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 49 31 50 29 55 32 / 70 20 10 30 30 20 Sandpoint 45 34 47 36 54 38 / 60 10 0 30 20 10 Kellogg 44 34 50 39 60 41 / 60 10 0 20 10 0 Moses Lake 57 34 51 32 59 36 / 10 0 10 30 0 0 Wenatchee 55 39 49 38 54 42 / 0 0 20 30 0 30 Omak 53 37 49 36 55 38 / 20 0 20 20 30 10 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

842 FXUS66 KPDT 051119 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 319 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Pattern shift Thursday will bring mountain rain showers today and Friday 2. Low elevation conditions will remain dry through the weekend 3. Breezy conditions through the weekend && .DISCUSSION... Current radar is showing a line of precipitation crossing over the region. Current ground observations are showing light rain through Pendleton and Pasco and heading eastwards towards Walla Walla. Once this line of showers passes the region will be back under mostly dry conditions for the lower elevations while the Cascades will receive more rain showers. Temperatures today will be in the low to mid 50s across the vast majority of the region. Models show an upper level shortwave trough moving into the region bringing with it chances of mountain showers today (Thursday). 80- 90% of the REFs raw ensembles shows the Cascades will receive up to 0.05 inches of precipitation in 24 hours while the Blues and eastern mountains will see 0.01-0.04 inches in 24 hours. Snow levels will remain above 5500 feet some the precipitation will fall as rain along the Cascades and the Blues. Friday models show much of the precipitation to remain locked against the Cascades, primarily along the WA Cascades. 24 hour precipitation based off of the NBM raw ensembles shows 60-80% probabilities of 0.15-0.20 inches of rain possible Friday. After the system passes on Thursday, deterministic models are in form agreement with a zonal flow pattern setting up across the region. This will dry the region back out and allow the temperatures to steadily increase through Saturday. In house climate calculations show that by Saturday temperatures will be 10-15 degrees above seasonal normal. NBM ensembles show temperatures to be in the low to mid 60s by Saturday with a few isolated locations seeing the high 60s with 70-80% of the NBM raw ensembles in agreement. As we move into the weekend, models show the next system to be making is way onshore. Clusters do show there to be a timing difference with the arrival of the next system, however, models are in agreement with precipitation along the Cascades as well as an increase in the winds across the region. The area with the highest winds will be through the Grande Ronde Valley Saturday with winds between 25-30 mph with 70-90% probabilities. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/... MVFR conditions at DLS/YKM/PSC currently due to fog and light rain. This is expected to clear to VFR after 14-16Z. The remaining sites are VFR and are expected to remain as such through the period. There is a 30-50% probability that ALW will see a brief period of below 10 miles VIS as the system moves overhead after 12Z. Winds will be light an variable through the period remaining below 10 kts. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 55 32 57 38 / 20 0 0 0 ALW 54 37 56 44 / 50 0 0 10 PSC 59 31 56 35 / 10 0 0 20 YKM 58 32 55 36 / 0 0 10 30 HRI 59 30 55 35 / 0 0 0 10 ELN 53 26 50 32 / 0 0 20 30 RDM 53 24 61 29 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 52 31 55 38 / 60 0 0 0 GCD 52 30 60 32 / 10 0 0 0 DLS 59 36 58 41 / 0 0 0 20 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...90

628 FXUS65 KREV 050928 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 128 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and mild weather will persist across the region through the upcoming weekend. * Temperatures will trend well above seasonal averages, with some western Nevada locations possibly reaching the 70s by Sunday. * A significant pattern change is expected mid next week, bringing increased chances for precipitation and gusty winds. && .DISCUSSION... For today, forecast guidance projects a weak upper trough passing through the region this morning with an upper ridge moving in behind the trough later today. Overnight cloud cover will move along eastward with the departing trough, leaving mostly sunny skies and dry conditions for the region. Daytime high temperatures will range between the mid-50s and the lower 60s in western NV valleys and between the lower to mid-50s in Sierra communities. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to be within a few degrees of those experienced the previous night. Going into the weekend: the upper ridge builds over the region on Friday and Saturday before a passing Canadian trough passes to north on Sunday, suppressing the ridge a bit and giving the region a zonal flow aloft. With this pattern above, the region expects dry weather to continue with area temperatures trending warmer and reaching up to around 5-10 degrees above normal for this time of the year by Sunday. High temperatures for Sunday currently are forecast in the mid-60s to around the 70 degree mark in western NV and northeastern CA valleys and in the lower to mid-60s in the Sierra. The latest run of the NBM shows that both Reno and Carson City have a 30-50% chance of hitting the 70 degree mark on Sunday afternoon. For next week, dry conditions look to persist Monday and Tuesday with area high temperatures cooling slightly by a few degrees. Ensemble guidance then shows the weather pattern changing on Veterans Day as an upper trough builds in the Pacific. Model solutions diverge with how they deal with this trough adding to the uncertainty in details at this time. But this signals the return of precipitation chances midweek and possibly through the rest of the week. The latest guidance from the CPC shows a moderate (40-60%) risk for heavy snow in the Sierra for 11/12-15. When looking at the CW3E`s atmospheric river landfall tool, it does project some good amount of moisture heading towards the region during the latter half of next week. We`ll be keeping an eye on this potential precipitation, so please stay tuned as forecast details become clearer. But for now: keep in mind that wetter, cooler, and windier weather could be in store for the second half of next week. -078 && .AVIATION... Area cameras show FZFG moving near KTRK this morning similar to the last few mornings, causing LIFR conditions once again. This may last through around 05/17Z. Aside from that, VFR conditions are expected today for area TAF sites with skies clearing up a bit through the day. Low confidence on a return of FZFG to the Northern Sierra valleys tonight due to drier weather, but will monitor conditions and amend TAFs if needed. -078 && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

990 FXUS66 KSTO 042022 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1222 PM PST Wed Nov 4 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather, above normal temperatures, and periodically breezy north to east winds through the weekend and into next week - Slight chance for light rain showers in Shasta County Sunday into next week - Potential shift toward active weather pattern mid to late next week && .DISCUSSION... Today-Saturday: High pressure over the region is promoting dry weather and seasonably high temperatures across interior Northern California today. Despite some high level clouds streaming around the northern periphery of the ridge, mostly sunny skies are observed. Afternoon temperatures have been running generally 5 to 15 degrees warmer compared with yesterday`s reading, with highs in the upper 50s to 60s across the Valleys and Foothills, and mid 40s to 50s over the mountains. A period of breezy north winds is expected through the Valley/Delta this afternoon and Thursday afternoon, with the breezier conditions west of Interstate 5 where gusts from 15-25 mph are expected, transitioning to breezy downslope easterlies along the Sierra overnight into Thursday. Tonight into Thursday, low clouds and patchy fog/mist is expected to redeveloped along the eastern side of the Valley. The ridge will amplify across the region through the end of the week. A drying and warming trend is expected through the weekend, with near to above normal temperatures. Resultant high temperatures into the 70s are anticipated across the Valley/foothills and 60s throughout the mountains. Periods of breezy north winds will continue through the Valleys each afternoon, with locally breezy northeasterly/downslope winds develop each overnight through mid morning period in the mountains and foothills as well, especially for the typical wind- prone locations and northeast/east to southwest/west aligned drainages. For these areas, strongest winds gusting 25-35 mph are expected late Friday into Saturday. Sunday-Next Week: As the ridge axis shifts eastward a broad area of west-southwest flow aloft looks to build in Sunday into next week alongside persistently high heights aloft. This will usher in a gradual return toward light onshore flow, although high temperatures do look to remain near to above normal into the early week ahead. While available moisture early in the week will limit overall precipitation potential, any ejecting shortwaves will introduce at least light shower chances for portions of Shasta County to begin the week. Ensemble guidance still generally indicates potential for a shift toward an active weather pattern, including chances for heavy rain and heavy mountain snow, around the mid to late next week period. A high degree of uncertainty still accompanies the forecast relative to this potential shift though. The anticipated southward progression of deep troughing over the Gulf of Alaska toward the California coast remains the largest piece of uncertainty at this time. Persistent ridging and high heights aloft across much of interior California have so far staved off this robust system. Given the deep fetch of available moisture offshore and general ensemble trends for the aforementioned trough to break through and dig southward by mid next week, the WPC 8-14 day outlook (Nov. 10-16) continues to highlight a moderate risk for heavy rain and heavy mountain snow, and a slight chance for high winds. Be sure to stay up to date with the latest forecast information and check back for updates as we get closer. && .AVIATION... Sites have cleared this morning, returning to general VFR conditions after 18z. Breezy north winds 8-12 kts are expected to continue at TAF sites through 00z Thursday before light winds return. As winds weaken after 00z Thursday, another period of MVFR/IFR conditions in BR/FG will be possible throughout the Valley into Thursday morning as well with best chances after 12z Thursday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

060 FXUS65 KMSO 050916 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 216 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Areas of fog or low clouds will remain through mid-morning or early afternoon. - Light rain or snow is possible today (Thursday) and again on Sunday. Satellite imagery clearly shows low clouds filling almost all valleys below 6,000 feet, while the mountains remain completely clear this morning. The persistent low clouds may linger through early this afternoon, limiting maximum warming due to strong inversions. For example, Missoula`s forecast high Wednesday was 36F, while the terrain above 6,000 feet warmed into the mid 40s to low 50s. This afternoon a weak weather system will move across the Northern Rockies, pushing a weak to moderate cold front through the region. This front will increase westerly winds and mix out the low-level valley inversions. A period of light valley rain and mountain snow is expected as this system moves through. High pressure immediately rebuilds late Friday, and patchy valley fog or low clouds are possible by Saturday. Depending on how quickly valley inversions rebuild, Saturday afternoon could be quite warm for this time of year. Another weak weather system will clip the Northern Rockies on Sunday. While light rain or snow is possible in far northwest Montana, the mountains will be breezy with wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph. High pressure rebuilds again to start next week. As valley inversions return, afternoon highs will slowly cool, and valley fog and low clouds will return each morning. && .AVIATION...Another round of valley fog and/or low clouds will be present this morning and early afternoon. Southwesterly wind gusts at and just above ridge tops will increase to 25-30 knots from late morning through early afternoon as a cold front moves through the Northern Rockies. In the valleys, this cold front is expected to clear out the persistent fog and stratus, improving low ceilings and visibility. Scattered light showers will also occur this afternoon as the front passes. A ridge of high pressure will return Friday into the early weekend. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

947 FXUS65 KBOI 051216 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 516 AM MST Thu Nov 5 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Near to slightly above normal temperatures through Friday. - Isolated showers north of Baker City to McCall today. - Above normal temperatures and mostly dry over the weekend into early next week. Stagnant conditions in the lower valleys with temperature inversions possible. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... Issued 248 AM MST THU NOV 5 2026 A weak upper level trough will move across the area today. This will bring isolated showers north of Baker City to McCall, with about a 10% chance of showers across the central Idaho mountains this afternoon. A dusting of snow will be possible in the mountains above 4500-6000 feet MSL. Elsewhere, it will be dry with decreasing clouds this afternoon. Highs will be near normal, and winds today will be locally breezy with gusts up to 20 mph south of Boise. An upper level ridge will build across the area Friday and Saturday, bringing dry conditions and warming temperatures. Skies will be mostly cloudy on Friday but mostly clear on Saturday. Warming will be aided by southwest flow aloft that develops in response to a trough approaching the Washington coast on Saturday, with highs reaching around 10 degrees above normal. This system will also result in breezy southeast winds across the area. Patchy fog will develop each night through the end of the week in sheltered basins. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued 248 AM MST THU NOV 5 2026 The pattern through the extended will consist of a broad upper level ridge extending across the western/central CONUS while a longwave trough persists over the Gulf of Alaska and clips the Pacific Northwest. This will place our area in southwest flow aloft and keep temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal. A system moving across Washington on Sunday and another weak system on Monday will produce a 10-20% chance of showers across the north with only increased clouds to the south. Additional systems will move to the north through midweek, with precipitation chances gradually rising to 20-30% across the north by Thursday. Winds will be breezy on Sunday and again Wednesday/Thursday as systems pass by to the north. However, light winds Monday and Tuesday and the ridge of high pressure may result in stagnant valley conditions and temperature inversions. && .AVIATION /12Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 449 AM MST THU NOV 5 2026 Mainly VFR. Mid to high clouds across the area with isolated showers near KBKE and KMYL. VFR to MVFR in showers and localized mountain obscuration. Snow levels 4500-6000 ft MSL. Skies clearing from west to east this afternoon. Surface winds: variable less than 10 kt this morning, becoming W-NW 5-10 kt this afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR under mid to high clouds. Surface winds: SE 4-8 kt, becoming NW 5-10 kt this afternoon, then back to SE 4-8 kt by late evening. Weekend Outlook...Mainly VFR with mid to high clouds on Friday and Sunday. Isolated showers across the north on Sunday. Patchy fog each night and early morning across sheltered basins. Surface winds variable less than 10 kt on Friday, then E-S 5-15 kt with gusts to 20-30 kt Saturday and Sunday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....ST SHORT TERM...ST LONG TERM....ST

632 FXUS65 KLKN 050910 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 110 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry weather expected through at least next Wednesday. * Warming trend this weekend. * Unseasonably warm Sunday through Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Thursday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: The main trough to impact our area this week has moved off to the east, however a quick moving weak trough is expected again this evening and overnight. The only impacts expected with this system at this time are a cool night, with lows in the mid 20s, and a few flurries along the Idaho border. Beginning Friday morning a ridge builds over the Southwest resulting in extended dry conditions and high temperatures approaching ten degrees above normal by Sunday. Daytime highs are expected to be in the low to mid 60s while overnight lows will be in the 30s. Winds will remain light during this period, with afternoon gusts below 15 mph. Ridging is expected to continue through at least Wednesday but an atmospheric river is on the horizon. A lot of uncertainty still surrounds this system, including how much of its moisture will make it to the Great Basin. The only thing that can be said with confidence at this time is the AR would break the ridge late next week, which would also decrease temperatures again. The question of how cold and how wet will have to wait another few days. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence in a weak trough overnight. High confidence in ridging and the resulting above average temperatures this weekend. Low confidence in the potential AR event late next week. && .AVIATION...Gusty afternoon winds up to 20KT are expected at KTPH this afternoon. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions and winds under 10KT at all terminals. KBAM TAF remains AMD NOT SKED due to communications outage. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...94 AVIATION...94