948 FXUS66 KSEW 161020 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 320 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Increasing low level onshore flow will bring cooler air into Western Washington today with highs 10 to 20 degrees cooler. Upper level ridge centered well offshore with northwesterly flow aloft and light or low level onshore flow will keep temperatures a few degrees above normal along with dry conditions through the weekend. Upper level ridge building early next week producing slightly warmer temperatures. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Satellite imagery shows stratus filling in along the coast with some middle level clouds over the Northwest Interior. Mostly clear skies elsewhere. Temperatures at 3 am/10z were in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Much cooler today with low level onshore flow increasing. Stratus along the coast not getting very far inland. Weak low level convergence could produce some cloud cover over the Central Puget Sound this afternoon. Marine air filling up the interior this morning with high temperatures dropping into the 70s for the interior and 60s for the coast. Little change in the pattern tonight through Wednesday night. Upper level ridge centered well offshore with northwesterly flow aloft. In the lower levels onshore flow will weaken tonight through Wednesday night. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Highs in the 60s on the coast and upper 60s to mid 70s inland. Northwesterly flow aloft continuing Thursday with the low level flow going light. This will give the area a little warmer day with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s coast and 70s and lower 80s inland. Felton && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Upper level ridge remaining well offshore with northwesterly flow aloft through the weekend. Weak system moving by to the north Sunday could produce a shower in the North Cascades. Light low level flow becoming onshore at times. With the lack of offshore flow temperatures will not get too warm. Highs Friday in the mid 70s to lower 80s for the interior cooling to the 78s over the weekend with a little more onshore flow. Highs on the coast in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Upper level ridge building over the area Monday with low level flow going light. High temperatures warming into the mid 70s to mid 80s interior and lower to mid 70s coast. Lows through the period in the 50s. && .AVIATION... As the upper level ridge continues to flatten, prevailing west/northwest winds persist. Gusty westerly winds are expected today near the coast as well as in and adjacent to the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Infrared satellite imagery shows an area of stratus located offshore. These clouds are expected to creep closer to the coast and induce a period of MVFR ceilings later this morning. Additional clouds develop this afternoon/evening and could bring a few hours of low-end VFR ceilings to the greater Seattle Metro area. KSEA...VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. As onshore flow continues today, a Puget Sound Convergence Zone may briefly materialize this morning and early afternoon, with southwesterly flow at SeaTac from 18-22Z. Scattered to broken ceilings as low as 3000ft could occur as clouds develop this afternoon. After 22Z, northerly flow will dominate into the overnight hours, allowing for clouds to clear out. && .MARINE... Onshore flow continues today as the surface thermal trough moves east of the Cascades into eastern Washington. Northwesterly winds will gust to 25kts over the coastal waters, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect from this afternoon through early Thursday morning. Seas will become locally-wind driven and become very steep. Wave heights will increase throughout the day Tuesday up to 10 to 13 ft with a dominant period of around 10 seconds. Waves in the outermost waters may reach up to 15 ft by late week. A Gale Warning is in effect for the central and eastern waters of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, with gusts up to 40 kts expected today associated with a strong marine push. Small Craft Advisory winds will also funnel down into Admiralty Inlet by this afternoon. Winds ease by late tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... The return of low level onshore flow today will ease fire weather concerns west of the Cascades. Elevated fire weather concerns return on the warmer days, Friday and Monday, during the next week. Minimum relative humidity values dropping to around 30 percent those days along with some breezy conditions in the afternoon and evening hours. Felton && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for Admiralty Inlet. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

060 FXUS66 KPQR 160926 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 226 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Onshore flow returns today, bringing slight relief from the hot temperatures of the past few days. However, warm and dry conditions continue through the next week. && .DISCUSSION...Tuesday morning through Monday...Surface observations early Tuesday morning indicate that onshore flow has returned to NW OR and SW WA, and satellite imagery shows marine stratus slowly nearing the coast due to this. Marine stratus will return to much of the NW OR and SW WA coast this morning and will likely be a daily fixture along the coast again. Onshore flow will bring relief from the record breaking temperatures of the past few days as high temperatures across the region today will be anywhere from around 8-20 degrees cooler than yesterday. Even though onshore flow returns, high pressure still remains over the eastern Pacific, so temperatures will still remain warmer than daily normals for mid June (mid 60s along the coast and mid 70s for the interior lowlands) for the interior. As a shortwave moves through British Columbia into WA today and tomorrow and the high pressure axis pushes west, expect high temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s across the interior lowlands and 60s along the coast with low temperatures back into the 50s. Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that the high pressure axis shifts a bit east again on Thursday, allowing high temperatures to increase into the upper 80s for the interior lowlands with a 20-45% chance of reaching or exceeding 90 degrees for locations between Corvallis and Vancouver. By Friday, ensembles indicate broad yet weak troughing developing over the far eastern Pacific with the PacNW remaining under weakening high pressure. Probabilities indicate very similar temperatures to Thursday, though the spread in potential high temperatures is larger depending on the final strength and location of the troughing. The weak troughing is slated to move inland Saturday, allowing temperatures to lower again to the upper 70s to low 80s. There is no precipitation signal with this trough except for possibly drizzle along the coast due to stronger onshore flow. Sunday looks to be a transition day with some uncertainty in the ensemble members. Around 55% of members suggest troughing will linger over the region with the other 45% indicating the trough begins moving east with high pressure over the eastern Pacific beginning to push closer to the coast. The 10th-90th percentile temperature spread is anywhere from the low 70s to upper 80s for the interior lowlands, with the NBM deterministic forecast suggesting low to mid 80s. On Monday, 70% of ensemble members indicate some level of ridging over the PacNW with 30% suggesting troughing continues. The 10th-90th percentile temperature spread for Monday is still pretty large, but the entire distribution is warmer than Sunday: in the upper 70s to upper 90s for the interior lowlands. This is likely due to the higher number of members indicating ridging and therefore warming, though the strength of the ridging is still uncertain. However, NBM deterministic forecast increases to the upper 80s to low 90s for the interior lowlands. Probabilities for reaching or exceeding 90 degrees increase from 5-30% on Sunday to 35-65% on Monday, highest probabilities between Corvallis and Vancouver. Overall, the forecast over the next 7 days remains on the dry and warm side with Moderate HeatRisk for portions of the interior Thursday, Friday, Sunday, and Monday. Those sensitive to the heat, especially those without adequate access to air conditioning or hydration, should take steps to prioritize heat safety. Also, remember that rivers and lakes remain cold despite the warm weather, increasing the risk of cold-water shock for anyone seeking relief near the water. -03 && .AVIATION...High pressure will maintain predominately VFR conditions for inland locations through the TAF period with FEW/SCT high clouds. There is high confidence (>90% chance) for marine stratus pushing onshore into the north Oregon and south Washington coast. This will produce MVFR CIGs at KAST by 10-12z Tue and spreading south to KTMK by 14-16z Tue. Limited mixing will maintain MVFR CIGs throughout the day along the north Oregon coast with a 35-55% chance of mixing increasing between 21z Tue to 03z Wed, allowing for a period of improvement to VFR conditions. Some uncertainty remains on whether or not marine stratus will spread to the central Oregon coast, but there is a 40-60% chance for MVFR CIGs at KONP at any given hour between 15-22z Tue. Guidance suggests mixing occurs at KONP after 21z Tue to 02z Wed, returning VFR conditions for the rest of the TAF period. Mainly light and variable winds become northwesterly and gradually increase to 8-12 kts inland and 10-14 kts along the coast after 15-18z Tue as pressure gradients tighten. Gusts up to 25 kt along the coast and up to 20 kt inland are possible. Winds gradually decrease after 06-09z Wed. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with FEW/SCT high clouds through the TAF period. Light northwesterly winds will gradually increase after 18z Tue to 8-12 kts with gusts up to 20 kt from 21z Tue-06z Wed. Winds weaken after 06z Wed. -03/10 && .MARINE...High pressure offshore will maintain the summertime pattern through this week. Diurnally driven northerlies are expected to peak each afternoon and evening through next week. Winds weakened last night with gusts less than 15 kts across most of the waters this morning. Winds are expected to increase across all of the coastal waters later this afternoon and evening with gusts to 25-30 kts, with this pattern persisting through late in the week. Seas around 4 to 7 ft at 8-10 seconds are expected to persist through Tuesday, driven primarily by the northerly wind chop. Seas are expected to build to around 8 to 11 ft Wednesday into Friday as a fresh northwesterly swell builds across the waters. /DH/03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ251-252-271-272. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ253-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

701 FXUS66 KMFR 161140 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 440 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...16/12Z TAFs...Aside from some high clouds streaming over the area, little change is expected to VFR flight levels in this TAF period. Gusty north winds (20-30 kt) are expected to return to the coast today while other areas will see typical diurnal breezes. Patches of IFR stratus are possible at the coast north of Cape Blanco this afternoon, between 18-21z, with potentially more coverage overnight tonight. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 254 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026/ KEY POINTS... * Hot temperatures continue today, with Heat Advisory in effect until tonight. Temperatures trend somewhat cooler on Wednesday with a more noticeable cool down Friday into the weekend. * Elevated fire weather concerns Thursday -- dry and unstable conditions. * Increasing signal for thunderstorms for latter half of week, possibly as early as Thursday, but most likely on Friday. Focus for activity expected over northern California and east of the Cascades. DISCUSSION...Fairly quiet morning with satellite imagery only showing some high level clouds streaming over the region. It`ll be another hot day across the region, though the heat wave will begin to ebb for areas west of the Cascades today, most notable along the coast north of Cape Blanco and into the Umpqua Basin. The upper level pattern responsible for this heat features a strong high pressure just offshore over the eastern Pacific, that will weaken and expand eastward today, eventually settling into the Great Basin region by Thursday. Meanwhile, weak energy will linger off the coast of California and meander westward around this high pressure while it expands/shifts eastward. This energy comes into play for the latter half of the week. In the meantime, a Heat Advisory remains in effect through this evening due to a moderate risk of heat related illnesses. Be sure to take precautions to protect yourself from the heat. If you plan to seek relief in area waterways, please remember that the water is still quite cold, and cold water shock is a real thing. Temperatures do trend cooler for the latter half of the week, but will remain above normal (mid-upper 90s West/upper 80s-low 90s East) until the weekend. So instead of being 15-25 degrees above normal like yesterday, it`ll "cool" to only 10-15 degrees above normal. The upper level pattern shifts on Thursday. That meandering weak energy combines with a few other weak shortwaves passing through in the westerlies and carves out a weak open trough over the eastern Pacific by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures tick upward a few degrees on Thursday under southerly flow, and it`s possible we see another triple degree day here in Medford on Thursday. The larger concern however, is the thunderstorm potential that comes with this pattern transition. It`s almost a guarantee that heat waves conclude with a thunder threat, and it seems this event is no different. Moisture and instability increase on Thursday, and there are some weak shortwaves passing through, but moisture is pretty marginal on Thursday. It`s more likely that there will be some cumulus buildups with a stray shower across northern California. By Friday, however, the trough nudges closer and moisture looks more favorable for thunderstorms. Currently, it looks like the focus would be across northern California and east of the Cascades, but model guidance shows some potential convection over the Siskiyous, which could bring some storms into southeastern Jackson County. We`ll keep an eye on model trends to see if thunderstorm chances expand westward with time. The trough axis moves through the region Friday night, taking the moisture and instability east of our region for Saturday. It`s possible some isolated activity lingers across far eastern Lake/Modoc counties early Saturday afternoon. The coolest temperatures of the forecast period are expected over the weekend as this trough passes through. Afternoon highs will still be above normal, but only on the level of 5-10 degrees. MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Tuesday, June 16, 2026...A thermal trough pattern will persist through Thursday. Conditions will worsen this afternoon as northerly winds strengthen, reaching gales south of Cape Blanco and seas become very steep and hazardous. Very steep seas could spread north of Cape Blanco around mid-week, but the worst conditions are expected south of Cape Blanco. Conditions could improve late Thursday into Friday as the thermal trough pattern weakens, but steep seas are likely to persist into the weekend. FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 AM PDT Tuesday, June 16, 2026...The heatwave will begin to ebb today for areas west of the Cascades, most notable along the coast north of Cape Blanco and into the Umpqua Basin. Meanwhile, temperatures remain hot east of the Cascades and across northern California. With the moderating temperatures west of the Cascades, conditions will be less critical today, but it will still be dry and breezy this afternoon. A weak marine push will bring improving recoveries tonight compared to recent days, but this improvement will be shortlived. The thermal trough will remain along the coast through Wednesday, then push inland on Thursday. This will maintain broad north through east flow across the midslopes/ridges, and poor recoveries are expected again Wednesday night. As the thermal trough shifts inland Thursday, expect another uptick in temperatures across the region. Additionally, this pattern will bring dry and unstable conditions across northern California and east of the Cascades. Meanwhile, an open trough develops offshore over the eastern Pacific on Thursday, moving inland late Friday and east of the region on Saturday. This pattern sets up the potential for thunderstorms during this time frame, focused across northern California and east of the Cascades. Chances for thunderstorms are highest on Friday, but could begin as early as Thursday. Moisture remains fairly marginal for Thursday, but instability is present. Could just be some cumulus buildups with a stray shower or even an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon. As the upper level low moves closer to the coast on Friday, the chance of showers and thunderstorms increases. Current guidance maintains the best chances across northern California and east of the Cascades, but there is the potential for as far west as Jackson County. By Saturday, the best moisture/instability shifts east, leaving some lingering chances along/east of the Warners/Winter Ridge. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ024-026-029. CA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ080>085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376. && $$

428 FXUS66 KEKA 160746 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1246 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Moderate to major HeatRisk will continue across the interior through Tuesday, though coastal areas will still see marine influence and cooling. The heat wave will break down beginning Wednesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures begin to slightly ease but remain above average Tuesday. - Cooling trend beginning to build in Wednesday. - Slight (15%) thunderstorm chances over the eastern interior Thursday and Friday afternoons. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure ridging continues to dominate across the area with the strongest focus persisting over Humboldt and Trinity Counties today with valley high temperatures again around 100. High temperatures will continue to be above average, though not record breaking. High temperatures rebound again today for the southern half of the area thanks to weakened south wind. Ukiah returned to near 100 Monday afternoon. Conditions will ease by just a couple degrees Tuesday, but these temperatures still constitute a generally moderate HeatRisk with some areas of major risk for the warmest valleys. Heat has made for a robust but very shallow marine layer that has blanketed the immediate coast, though clearing Monday was slight better than Sunday. High pressure will begin to weaken more by Wednesday with interior highs pulling back into the mid 80s. Most deterministic models show weak trough pushing onshore around Thursday. This trough will definitely cool conditions and help deepen marine influence along shore, creating a more persistent and further reaching marine layer. Compared to previous runs, more high resolution models show a weak moisture plume moving up the Sacramento valley. Interacting with the trough, this could (20% chance) produce elevated, mostly dry thunderstorms in eastern Mendocino and Trinity Counties on Thursday and Friday afternoons. /JHW && .AVIATION...Though brief, the coastal stratus showed the first signs of weakness Monday with periods of scattering. Southerly return flow over the coastal waters continues to replenish stratus mass from the unlimited supply being generated over the Pacific. LIFR conditions and areas of fog remained over the coastal terminals Monday night. High pressure overhead strengthens overnight, and the marine layer will further compress to very shallow levels through Tuesday morning. High pressure then weakens Tuesday, and the northerly winds increase. This will finally allow for turbulent mixing to scour out the stratus throughout day north of Cape Mendocino, though a quick return is expected going into Tuesday evening. Weaker northerly winds south of the cape will create and southerly eddy which will keep the stratus over or along the Mendocino coast Tuesday. && .MARINE...Northerly winds have entered a strengthening trend. Near gale to gale conditions will develop over portions of the waters Tuesday, mainly over the outers Tuesday. The northerly winds will strengthen through Wednesday. Though winds will be lighter, short period and occasionally large seas around 9 to 11 feet will enter the inner waters around and north of Cape Mendocino Tuesday through Thursday morning. Thereafter, seas trend lower after the stronger northerlies likely pull farther offshore. && .FIRE WEATHER...An ongoing heat wave has helped rapidly dry fuels. Interior high temperatures have been reaching near 100 with RH generally between 15 and 25 percent. Overnight RH recovery has also been poor with thermal belts with mid and upper elevation nighttime RH only around 50 percent. ERC has rapidly increased across the board with most RAWS already reaching near the 90th percentile, even close to shore. That said, the general lack of wind will continue to suppress the risk of any fast moving fires. Hot and dry conditions will weaken beginning Wednesday. The pattern late week is coming more into focus. Some longer range high resolution models show a more well formed though weak moisture plume moving up the Sacramento Valley late week. Combined with the the passing upper level trough, such a setup is likely to create Thunderstorms over high terrain Thursday and Friday afternoons and evenings. The greatest potential will be in NE Trinity County (20% chance) with lower chances (10%) around the Yolla Bollys. Any storms that form will be mostly dry. Given the preceding heat wave, any lightning is likely to be efficient with possible new fire starts. && .COASTAL FLOODING...Another high astronomical tide is predicted just at 1:15 am, Wednesday, June 17 for Northwest California. High tides have been reaching 9.1 to 9.3 ft. Tides will trend lower starting Wednesday. High tides will cause minor coastal flooding round Humboldt Bay, including King Salmon and low- lying roads near Arcata Bottoms. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ102-105-108- 111-114-116-117. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ103. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ103. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ415. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ415. Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ470. Gale Warning from 8 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

284 FXUS66 KMTR 161219 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 519 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides anticipated across low-lying coastal areas. - Hazardous beach conditions through Wednesday with increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. - Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the week with seasonable June temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 (Today through Wednesday) High pressure will remain in place across the area today, bringing similar conditions to Monday. A marine layer 1000-1500 feet deep and onshore winds will keep temperatures near the coast slightly below normal, with highs mainly in the 60s to low 70s. Extensive cloud cover within the marine layer this morning will retreat to the coast this afternoon, giving way to mostly sunny skies. Inland, including interior portions of the South Bay, East Bay, North Bay, and interior Monterey and San Benito counties, it will remain hot with highs in the 80s and 90s. Many locations will see Minor HeatRisk, but some areas will experience Moderate HeatRisk, corresponding to a moderate risk for heat- related illnesses amongst sensitive populations, including children, the elderly, pregnant women, people with chronic illnesses, and people who work or live outdoors without access to adequate cooling or hydration. We continue to emphasize practicing smart heat safety by limiting time outdoors, taking frequent breaks in the shade, and staying hydrated. Expect moderate onshore winds this afternoon with gusts 10-20 mph, except slightly stronger possible in open areas. The ridge will start to weaken on Wednesday beginning a cooling trend, mainly inland where high temperatures will cool by up to 2-5 degrees. The pattern near the coast will remain similar, with marine stratus in the morning decreasing in the afternoon and onshore winds keeping temperatures similar to today. Tidal flooding continues across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us the highest tides of the summer season. High tides are expected to be 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM on Wednesday, and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on Thursday. In addition, the long-period southerly swell is continuing to increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean! && .LONG TERM... Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday) The ridge will weaken further on Thursday as a weak upper level trough off the coast approaches the area. This trough will move across the area Friday and Saturday. However, any showers and thunderstorms associated with this system are expected to remain over the higher terrain north and east of the forecast area, keeping our area dry. Forecast soundings indicate the low pressure system deepening the marine layer with continued onshore winds (breezy each afternoon). This combination will continue the inland cooling trend, with highs Friday and Saturday only reaching the 70s to low 80s at the warmest locations, or about 5 to 15 degrees below normal. Drizzle may also develop over the coastal waters and along the coast. Weak troughing may continue into Sunday, but by Monday, ensembles generally agree that a ridge will rebuild across the West, with temperatures especially inland trending warmer once again. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 451 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Low-end MVFR/high-end IFR continues at nearly all terminals. Marine layer depth of around 1500 ft MSL pushed inland early this morning, and will slowly clear back towards the coast by 17-19z. Intermittent CIGs at LVK through 15z this morning. Around a 60-75% chance for clearing at HAF today, best chances being after 20z. Clouds push inland again this evening, mainly after 02z Wed, with similar depth as this morning. Lesser confidence in CIG at LVK for Wednesday morning. Vicinity of SFO...BKN-OVC clouds have finally reached SFO where they will linger through 17z or 18z before retreating to the coast as breezy westerly winds pick up. SKC and VFR should prevail thereafter, with intermittent gusts around 15 mph through the afternoon. Marine layer clouds with bases around 800-1100 feet MSL return this evening, but will struggle to filter into SFO until after 06z Wed or so, clearing out slightly earlier on Wednesday, around 15-16z. SFO Bridge Approach...Clouds will clear back towards the coast by 18-19z with VFR thereafter, but stratus may linger in the vicinity through much of the afternoon. Expansion of low clouds will occur after 03z Wed, with low-end MVFR conditions for the approach through at least 16z Wed. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...IFR CIGs at OAK and MVFR at SJC, with the latter prevailing through 16-17z before mixing out. Clouds may linger at OAK until closer to 18z, with VFR for both sites for the afternoon and gusty west to northwest winds up to 15 mph. Winds weaken and stratus returns around 06z Wed for OAK and 09z for SJC. CIGs at SJC may be intermittent at times Wednesday morning, with higher confidence of occurrence being after 11z. Monterey Bay Terminals...Clearing of low clouds will occur at a similar time today as previous days, around 17-18z. Stratus will linger just offshore through the afternoon, with VFR prevailing at both SNS and MRY. Low clouds move inland again this evening after 01z, filling into SNS sometime between 01-04z Wed. Bases of clouds will be similar to those observed this morning, around 800-1100ft MSL. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 451 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Northerly winds will increase resulting in hazardous seas over the northern outer waters late today to Wednesday morning. Otherwise, seas will remain slight to moderate to the weekend. && .BEACHES... Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through the next couple days as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509- 529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tangen LONG TERM....Tangen AVIATION...Zuber MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

500 FXUS66 KOTX 161128 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 428 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Strong westerly winds will develop today with a cold front passage. Warm, dry, and gusty conditions will bring critical fire weather conditions. Winds will blow around unsecured objects, create strong cross winds and possibly result in blowing dust creating hazardous travel conditions. - Warm temperatures and remaining dry through the rest of the work week. - A passing weather system for the weekend will bring another round of breezy winds, but not as windy as today (Tuesday), and 15-30% chance of showers near the Canadian border. && .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passage today will bring gusty westerly winds to the Inland Northwest. Windy and dry conditions will result in critical fire weather conditions. Strong cross winds, patchy bowing dust, and isolated tree damage will also be possible with winds today. Remaining warm and dry into the weekend. Then a weather system over the weekend will bring the potential for more breezy weather with a few showers near the Canadian border. && .DISCUSSION... ...STRONG DRY COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY... Today and tonight: A cold front drops southeast across the area later morning to early afternoon and exiting before evening. It is forecast to remain precipitation-free, though some showers are possible just north of the Canadian border. Behind the front, PWATs drop to 45-75% of normal, bringing afternoon RH levels into the mid-teens to lower 20s. Temperature will remain warm to hot in the mid-80s to mid-90s. Winds will breezy to windy near the Cascade gaps and western basin in the morning, then increase throughout the area in the afternoon and evening before decreasing in the late evening into overnight. Peak speeds of 20 to 30 mph are possible, with gusts 30 to 50 mph. The front will draw a 140kt+ jet south along the US/Canadian border into eastern Montana and a 10-15 mb gradient between Seattle and Wenatchee, leading to such winds. The hot, dry and windy set-up will bring elevated critical fire weather conditions. The HDWI (Hot-Dry-Windy-Index) reaches toward the 95th percentile of parts of basin. Red Flag Warnings remain in place, with guidance showing the best combination of low RH and stronger winds from about 12 pm to 9 pm Tuesday. Additionally, we will have to keep an eye toward blowing dust, choppy waters, difficulty for high-profile vehicles, maybe even some localized power outages and minor tree damage. Wind advisories remain in near Wenatchee and Waterville Plateau sounding, where winds sustained near 30 mph and gusts to 50 mph are possible. The advisory has also been expanded eastward across the Upper Columbia Basin into the Spokane Area, Palouse, and lower Asotin and Garfield County. The winds start to abate after 10 pm and more notably heading into the overnight. Wednesday to Monday: The Inland NW will remain in a progressive pattern, with largely dry weather save for a couple exceptions. The northwest flow turns more westerly in the latter part of the week as baggy trough approaches and slides by on the weekend. Some afternoon clouds are expected around the mountains, with passing middle to high clouds from time to time. Some limited shower chances skim along the Canadian border Saturday, with guidance now showing a bit better chance for showers and t-storms on Sunday across the northern zones into eastern Shoshone county. Other limited shower chances linger near the Canadian border Monday afternoon. Wind remain breezy Wednesday from the west to northwest. Speeds of 7 to 15 mph with gusts of 15 to 25 mph are possible, stronger near the lee of the Cascades. Afternoon minimum RH values will still be in the mid-teens to low 20s and fire weather conditions will still be elevated, but not at much as Tuesday. Winds will be occasionally breezy near the Cascades/Okanogan Valley the remainder of period, with another peak around Saturday when winds could gust 30 to 40 mph, strongest near the Cascades and western Columbia Basin. Temperatures will be above normal through the period, with Wednesday seeing upper 70s and 80s and warming up toward the mid 80s to mid 90s Friday, before another slight drop into the weekend. /Solveig && .AVIATION... 12Z TAFs: A strong cold front sweeps through today. Westerly winds will increase through the morning and peak in the afternoon. A strong surface gradient will support sustained wind speeds of around 25 kts with gusts up to around 40 kts in the lee of the Cascades and across the Columbia Basin including all TAF sites. There`s potential for patchy blowing dust over the Columbia Basin into the Palouse region with winds today. This may result in reduced visibility at KMWH and potentially into the Spokane Area (KGEG/SFF) and on the Palouse (KPUW), but any blowing dust may also be very localized and have little if any impact at airport terminals. Little moisture will accompany the front will just a few wave clouds over the mountains. Winds will relax this evening. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. The one caveat is if blowing dust or any large wildfires develop. Either of these factors could result in localized visibility restrictions. /SVH ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 86 54 82 52 84 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 84 52 79 52 82 55 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 84 50 77 48 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 92 57 84 54 88 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 86 50 81 48 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 84 51 77 50 80 52 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 82 51 76 51 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 88 52 86 53 89 56 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 83 59 84 58 87 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 87 53 84 55 87 58 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse- Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)- Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)- Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)- Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). ID...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for Idaho Palouse. && $$

348 FXUS66 KPDT 161012 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 312 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry and warm conditions will continue 2. Breezy to windy across the region through Wednesday *Winds Advisories Issued* 3. Isolated fire weather concerns today *Red Flag Warnings Issued* && .DISCUSSION... Current satellite should some clouds forming over the area due to the shortwave. This has assisted with keeping the overnight temperatures warm. Current ground observations so many locations through the Basin with temperatures in the low 70s at 330 am. Temperatures tomorrow will remain in the 90s through the Basin (70- 90%) with central, N. central and the foothills seeing high 80s (70- 90%) while the higher elevations outside of central OR will see the high 70s to low 80s (70-90%). Models show the ridge to remain in place over the long term period with a few weak shortwaves on Wednesday and Saturday bringing only a slight temperature difference to the region. Otherwise, dry and warm conditions will persist through the end of the week. Models show the shortwave that is moving over the ridge will bring a tightening of the surface pressure gradients. In house calculations using the GFS, NAM and RAP all show a tightening of between 9-12 mb. This will bring increased winds across the region, especially through the gaps and along the foothills. Due to this, an Wind Advisory has been issued for today from 10 AM to 11 PM in the Simcoe Highlands of Klickitat County and through the Kittitas/Yakima Valleys for west winds between 25-35 mph with gusts to 55 mph (80-90%). The foothills will see sub-advisory winds yet still breezy with winds 15- 20 mph with gusts to near 35 mph (70-90%). Winds will begin to settle into a more diurnal pattern overnight Wednesday. With the increased winds and prolonged dry conditions, fire weather conditions have become elevated across the Basin as well as the Kittitas Valley with isolated pockets elsewhere. With RHs dropping into the teens and the increased winds expected today, a Red Flag Warning has been issued for the Kittitas/Yakima Valley as well as the WA & OR Columbia Basin for winds and RHs. The RFW will be valid from 10 AM today (Tuesday) through 11 PM tonight. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. All TAF sites will see increased winds after 15Z with sustained winds of 15-20 kts with gusts between 20-35 kts. Winds are expected to persist through the entire forecast period returning to more diurnally driven winds after the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER... Red Flag Warnings issued for WA/OR691 and WA690 10 AM through 11 PM today for critical winds and RHs. These areas have confirmed cured and will bare no resistance to fire if ignited. Daytime minimum RHs will be in the teens to very low 20% with winds of 25-35 mph with gusts to 55 mph possible. Confidence in the winds and RHs is high with 80-80% confidence. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 89 51 84 50 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 90 55 84 56 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 94 55 89 54 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 90 55 89 53 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 91 55 87 53 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 80 52 81 51 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 89 47 87 46 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 88 49 81 47 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 91 48 85 46 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 86 57 85 57 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ690-691. Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ024-026-521. OR...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ691. && $$ DISCUSSION...90 AVIATION...90 FIRE WEATHER...90

248 FXUS65 KREV 160741 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1241 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Near 100 degree highs for W.Nevada valleys through at least Wednesday with Moderate to localized Major HeatRisk concerns. * Shower and thunderstorm chances confined to the Sierra crest of Mono county today and Wednesday, though chances less than 15%. * A pattern change Thursday-Friday increases fire weather concerns due to increased thunderstorm chances along with gusty winds and low humidity. Cooling expected by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... There is a 10-15% chance for showers and thunderstorms today along the Sierra crest. However, the most likely scenario will be increased cumulus buildups along the higher terrain due to strong surface heating. Speaking of heating, afternoon highs reach near 100 across much of western Nevada and northeast California, with near 90s for lower Sierra communities. Overnight lows will provide little heat relief as lows stay in the mid to upper 60s for western Nevada. These trends will continue through Thursday. As such, the Heat Advisory for Churchill and Pershing counties has been extended. Limit outdoor activities, take plenty of breaks in the shade, and remember to drink water this week. Thunderstorm chances return in earnest Thursday, mainly along the Sierra crest, per latest hi-res guidance. The current forecast highlights Mono county for Thursday (15-30% chance), though hi-res models hint at showers creeping into the Tahoe Basin and even northward along the Sierra of northeast California. Storms that develop Thursday will be capable of brief, heavy rainfall and outflow gusts up to 50 mph. Friday looks to be the day of greatest concern, with increased chances for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. For further details, please see the fire weather section below. Chances for showers and thunderstorms becomes more widespread Friday, with a 15-25% chance for lightning extending from central Mono county up through the OR border, and east to the Churchill/Pershing and Lander county borders. Model sounding DCAPE values range up to 1400 J/kg, coinciding with outflow gusts up to 60 mph. Planning to be outdoors Friday? Keep an eye and ear to the skies; when thunder roars, go indoors! -Giralte && .AVIATION... VFR conditions for all terminals today. The only exception may be KMMH today where there is a less than 10% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Impacts from these storms include gusty and erratic outflow winds, brief downpours, and lightning. Additionally, mountain obscurations may develop along the highest peaks of the Sierra. Above average temperatures through mid-week will result in density altitude concerns. Nevada terminals will be the most vulnerable to these concerns as temperatures approach the triple digits. -Giralte/Fuentes && .FIRE WEATHER... Near triple digit heat will continue through Thursday, peaking today and tomorrow. With the heat, a very dry air mass will continue to drive afternoon humidity levels into the single digits and cause poor overnight recoveries in the teens and low 20% vicinity across the W.Nevada Basin and Range. Typical afternoon zephyr breezes return on this afternoon, bringing gusts of 20 to 25 mph. These hot, dry, and breezy conditions will combine to create brief, localized areas of elevated fire weather where vegetation is already dry, primarily in Washoe county and parts of northeast California. A pattern chance Thursday into Friday will open the door for fast-moving, high-based dry thunderstorms. A few storms could develop Thursday afternoon in Mono County before drifting north into the Tahoe Basin overnight and Friday morning. Friday afternoon will bring the greatest threat, with widespread scattered thunderstorms chances. Due to the low chance of wetting rains (<10%) associated with the fast-moving storms, new lightning ignitions will elevate fire weather concerns. In addition, the dry low-level airmass will favor stronger thunderstorm outflows with wind gusts of 50-60 mph. These strong outflows could rapidly spread any new ignitions, especially in areas of dry fuels. After several days of hot and dry conditions, vegetation will be more susceptible to burning, increasing the overall fire threat. -Giralte/Fuentes && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Friday NVZ004. CA...None. && $$

355 FXUS66 KSTO 151914 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1214 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot, well-above average temperatures through Tuesday with widespread Moderate HeatRisk and areas of Major HeatRisk in the northern/central Sac Valley. Hottest temperatures today. - Chances for mountain showers/thunderstorms along the Sierra crest on Thursday into Friday. - Cooler temperatures Thursday into the weekend with increased Delta breeze. && .DISCUSSION... Hot, well-above normal temperatures continue today with widespread Moderate HeatRisk and areas of Major HeatRisk in the northern/central Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills. Hottest temperatures of the week are expected today, with highs approaching 110 in the northern Sacramento Valley. Expect elevated low temperatures tonight as well, which will limit overnight relief. As a result, an Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through 11 PM Tuesday. Diurnal Delta Breeze influence will work to keep the vicinity Delta and Sacramento area cooler compared to the rest of the Valley through this heat event, but highs will still be in the mid to upper 90s. Remember to stay cool and hydrated, and consider checking in on those more sensitive to heat. The hot temperatures combined with low relative humidity and breezy onshore winds, will continue the pattern of elevated fire weather conditions in the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent terrain through Tuesday. Daytime humidities will be in the teens to mid 20s, with overnight recoveries in the 50s, though both daytime and overnight relative humidities should gradually improve into the weekend. On Wednesday, a gradual cooling trend begins as upper level ridging begins to break down. Near to below normal high temperatures are expected through the weekend. While we`re not expecting widespread precipitation with this pattern change, there is an increasing chance (15-25%) for isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Sierra crest on Thursday and into Friday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions with clear skies over the next 24 hours. In the vicinity Delta, Westerly gusts up to 25-30 kts are possible through 18Z Tuesday. In the southern Sacramento Valley, west to southwest gusts 15 to 20 kts are possible between 00Z-05Z Tuesday. Sustained winds 12 kts or less elsewhere. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Butte County Below 1000 ft-N. Sac Valley in Tehama County-Shasta County Foothills 1000-3000 ft-Shasta Lake Area & 1-5 1000-3000 ft- Shasta Metro-Sierra (Tehama-Plumas) 1000-3000 ft-Tehama Co Coast Range Above 3000 ft-W Tehama Co Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Shasta County 1000-3000 ft-W. Shasta County Above 3000 ft. && $$

320 FXUS65 KMSO 161012 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 412 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Strong winds gusting 40 to 50 mph today across much of western Montana and north-central Idaho. - 70 percent chance for winds briefly exceeding 50 mph in the Pinesdale area of the western Bitterroot Valley, 85 percent chance in Anaconda later today. Isolated tree damage possible. - Moderate heat risk in the lower valleys of north-central Idaho as highs could reach upper 90s to low 100s Friday. - Surge of monsoon moisture could bring showers and thunderstorms capable of heavy rain Friday night into Saturday Lemhi County to southwest Montana. No significant changes expected today. Strong westerly winds gusting 30 to 45 mph with isolated higher gusts are still on tap across western Montana and Lemhi County. Anticipated impacts include hazardous boating conditions on area lakes, crosswinds affecting high- profile vehicles, and potential tree damage leading to localized power outages. Furthermore, the hot, dry, and windy environment will generate elevated fire weather concerns across southwest Montana. A weak, dry cold front will advance from north to south across the region this evening, accompanied by broad, modest surface pressure rises after 6 PM MDT. Cold air advection aloft will intensify mid- level, ridge-top winds to near 60 mph across west- central Montana, inducing elevated mountain waves. High-resolution guidance suggests the strongest downward momentum will likely remain above the valley floors, hindered by a developing stable nocturnal layer and a lack of precipitation or virga to facilitate downward momentum transport. However, localized severe gusts remain possible. Concurrently, isolated showers and thunderstorms may initiate over the Continental Divide in Glacier National Park, posing localized threats of lightning, small hail, and gusty outflow winds. Wednesday will bring temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler, returning the region to near-seasonal normals. The departing shortwave will focus scattered showers and thunderstorms across northwest Montana along the Continental Divide, while the remainder of the region stays dry. Upper level ridging will amplify Thursday and Friday, driving temperatures back to or slightly above Tuesday`s values. Lower valleys in north-central Idaho are forecast to reach the low 100s by Friday, carrying an 80 percent probability of reaching Moderate HeatRisk and posing a threat to vulnerable populations lacking adequate cooling or hydration. Another upper-level disturbance will approach late Friday into Saturday, reintroducing wind and precipitation chances. Thunderstorm probabilities will increase by Saturday, particularly along and south of the Interstate 90 corridor. && .AVIATION...Strong westerly winds are expected to develop after 16/1800Z/1200MDT today. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 kts and gusts reaching 40kts will be possible in the afternoon, through 17/0000Z/1800MDT. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the terrain along the Continental Divide from 16/2200Z/1500MDT to 17/0300Z/2100MDT. The convection will be capable of mixing down strong and erratic winds, and small hail. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM MDT this evening for Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region... Lower Clark Fork Region...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys... Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight MDT tonight for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region. ID...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM MDT this evening for Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County. && $$

664 FXUS65 KBOI 161201 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 601 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures through next weekend with Today and Friday being the hottest days. - The hot temperatures Today and Wednesday will be accompanied by gusty winds and very dry conditions. - A chance of showers and thunderstorms returns to the area Friday and Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... Issued 309 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026 An upper level trough passing north of the area will tighten surface pressure gradients across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho today and Wednesday. This setup will generate gusty westerly winds each afternoon especially along the I-84 corridor through the night.. At the same time, a very dry air mass remains entrenched over the region. Min relative humidity values will drop into the 10 to 15 percent range across most lower elevations, creating elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Wind gusts today will generally reach 25 to 35 mph, with the strongest gusts expected across southeastern Oregon and the western Magic Valley. Despite the weakened upper level ridge, temperatures will reach the mid 90s today which is about 15 degrees above normal for the lower valleys. Slight cooler temperatures on Wednesday behind the dry cold frontal passage, though they will still reach the upper 80s in the lower valley. Dry and stable conditions prevail on Thursday as brief riding builds over the Great Basin. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... Issued 309 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026 Model guidance remains in excellent agreement regarding a potent, upper level trough diving south from the Gulf of Alaska into the Pacific Northwest by Friday morning. Pre-frontal southerly flow will pull a plume of deep moisture into eastern Oregon and western Idaho starting Friday afternoon. Strong dynamic forcing combined with steep lapse rates will trigger thunderstorm activity primarily along the Idaho/Nevada border Friday afternoon and evening. Given the inverted-v profiles, a few stronger storms could be capable of producing gusty outflow winds. The upper level trough moves directly over the forecast area on Saturday. This will maintain a threat for showers and thunderstorms, though activity will transition to a wetter storm as the boundary layer moisten. Temperatures on Saturday will drop though remain about 5 to 8 degrees above normal. The trough begins to lift northeast into Montana on Sunday, leaving a cool and unstable northwesterly flow across the region with lingering showers over the higher terrain. Drier and warmer conditions return by next Monday as high pressure tries to rebuild from the southwest. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 557 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026 VFR. Clouds clearing by early afternoon. Hot temperatures will cause high density altitudes across the area this afternoon. Surface winds: light and variable, becoming W-NW 10-20 kt gusting 25-30 kt this afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. High density altitude this afternoon. Surface winds: light and variable, becoming NW 10-20 kt this afternoon. Gusts NW 25-30 kt after 17/01z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JDS SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JDS

422 FXUS65 KLKN 161013 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 313 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry weather temperatures above normal levels in the 90s * Heat Risk increases through the week for those sensitive to warm temperatures * Incoming weather system this weekend increases chances for thunderstorms and light precipitation && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A few clouds can be seen overhead moving south. Overall, skies are mostly clear at this time. The flow is out of the northwest due to a high pressure system off in the eastern Pacific. The center of this high pressure system is forecast to move to the east during the next day or two, resulting in afternoon high temperatures rising to the mid to upper 90s. Model guidance continues to retreat slightly on the HeatRisk with respect to areal coverage and intensity. Will continue the trend from previous shifts by messaging the above normal temperatures. While highs will be in the mid to upper 90s today and Wednesday, overnight lows will generally be in the 40s and 50s Wednesday and Thursday mornings. By Thursday, the upper ridge will be centered over the four- corners region. A southerly flow will develop and bring mid-level moisture north. Have introduced isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of central Nevada as a result. Precipitable water values will be around a half-inch or so with about 100-150J/kg of CAPE and limited instability. Not expecting much precipitation given how high the bases will be. Winds are expected to remain light during the day, but any storm in central Nevada could produce gusts to 45 mph. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with some afternoon breezes. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. On Friday, a weak upper trough will enter the picture across northern California. The resulting southwest flow will help to push moisture northward. Isolated dry thunderstorms in the north are expected to quickly transition to more wet storms in the latter portions of the afternoon. Some of the thunderstorms could also produce strong outflow wind gusts to 45 mph. Highs Friday will again be in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows will be in the 50s. The weak east Pacific trough on Saturday will slowly give way to a more east to west flow by early next week. There is the potential for an isolated mix of wet and dry storms over northern and central Nevada on Saturday as the rest of the moisture gets scoured out. Coverage of isolated dry thunderstorms will be quite limited on Sunday with not much expected Monday and Tuesday. Highs are expected to cool Saturday with readings in the 80s and lows in the 40s. Look for high temperatures to rebound back into the 90s by Monday and Tuesday with lows in the 40s and 50s. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Modifications to the NBM forecast were needed Thursday and Friday with respect to the coverage of isolated dry thunderstorms. Winds on Friday were also bumped slightly higher across central Nevada as well. High confidence in temperatures remaining above normal for the week. Confidence is low on placement and coverage of isolated dry thunderstorms Thursday. Confidence is low with regards to critical fire weather conditions Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected through the 24 hour period. Afternoon northwest breezes with gusts 20 to 25KT will develop after 18Z. && .FIRE WEATHER...Fire weather conditions will remain elevated today and Wednesday across portions of northern Nevada as wind gusts 25 to 30 mph will develop in zones 469 and 470. There could be a few isolated gusts exceeding 30 mph but coverage and time requirements are not expected to be reached. Minimum relative humidity values will be in the single digits to low teens through Thursday. Models are showing mid-level moisture trying to push north around the eastern periphery of the four-corners high on Thursday, leading to the develop of isolated dry thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. Moisture is expected to move northward Friday with dry thunderstorms in the northern zones transitioning to wet and dry storms during the afternoon. Winds will become breezy to locally windy in east- central Nevada Friday, especially across zones 425, 426, and 427. This will lead to at least elevated wind/low relative humidity conditions in these zones though if drier air moves in quicker, this could lead to critical conditions and will need to be watched. Showers will exit the area late Saturday with cooling conditions into the 80s with minimum humidity values increasing. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86 FIRE WEATHER...86