293 FXUS66 KSEW 271645 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 945 AM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A broad upper trough will remain over the area well into next week with a series of low pressure systems maintaining below normal temperatures and periodic chances of showers. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Morning Update: The convergence zone from earlier this morning has dissipated. An upper level low moving across the region continues to bring generally scattered light showers. Latest radar imagery does shower a band of near stationary showers to the north of Boeing Field with moderate reflectivity. Expect localized heavier precipitation within this band. Otherwise no major updates to the forecast this morning. A closed upper level low will gradually shift southward across Western Washington today with the focus for shower activity shifting to higher terrain of the central/south Cascades and portions of the Southwest Interior. Some areas around Puget Sound might catch a few peeks of sun this afternoon, but temperatures will remain a little below normal. Models are latching on to a compact closed upper low slipping southward along the coast on Sunday. This system doesn`t look like it will produce much of any precip, but it will ensure that we see plenty of cloud cover with temperatures continuing their recent trend of several degrees below normal for the end of June. Broad upper level ridging centered well offshore attempts to briefly nose into the area on Monday, but continued onshore flow and meager height recoveries point toward mostly cloudy and cool conditions persisting. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Strong upper level ridging centered well offshore around 150W and over the eastern half of the lower 48 will keep a mean upper trough position anchored over the West Coast through much of the extended forecast period. This keeps the door open for additional upper level systems to dip southward from British Columbia maintaining below normal temperatures and producing periodic chances for showers. 27 && .AVIATION... A mix of MVFR and VFR cigs this morning with scattered light showers as an upper level low spins over the area. The best chances for showers will be in the in the mountains (50-80% chance)and there is a 30-50% chance for Puget Sound terminals. This also comes with a 15- 25% chance for thunderstorms. The highest confidence for thunderstorms will be primarily for the southern Puget Sound (Thurston County, western Pierce County) and Lewis County where the cooler temperatures aloft associated with the center of the upper- level low supports taller storms. Improvement to VFR expected this afternoon after 18z. Another round of low clouds and MVFR cigs possible (30-40% chance) for the interior terminals and very likely (60-80% chance) for the coast this evening/tonight. Winds will be out of the south 6-10 kts this morning and gradually shift to the west through the late morning and then to the west-northwest this afternoon. KSEA...MVFR cigs this morning at the terminal with improvement to VFR expected after 18z. Probabilities for ceilings below 2000 feet increase to 50-80% after 09Z Sunday with a 40-50% chance of IFR cigs between 12Z-16Z Sunday. There is a slight chance (15%) for thunder Saturday afternoon, but confidence is not high enough to include it in the TAF. There is a slight chance (15%) for thunder Saturday afternoon, but confidence is not high enough to include it in the TAF. Southwesterly winds 5-9 knots will shift to the west-southwest around 21Z and then to the west-northwest between 00Z-05/06Z before shifting back to the south-southwest. && .MARINE... The overall pattern over the next several days will feature a broad surface ridge centered well offshore with lower pressure across the interior promoting onshore flow. This will lead to gusty northwesterlies over the outer coastal waters and the development of steep, choppy seas later today and into early next week. In addition, the central and east Strait of Juan de Fuca will likely see diurnally driven increases in westerlies reaching small craft advisory strength on a routine basis. The offshore ridge is expected to weaken toward late next week allowing for lighter winds and subsiding seas. 27 && .FIRE WEATHER... Little in the way of fire weather concerns remain in the picture well into the week ahead with upper troughing maintaining cool conditions, high RH, and periodic chances for shower activity. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Sunday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Sunday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$

005 FXUS66 KPQR 271940 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1240 PM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 .SYNOPSIS...The next seven days are highlighted by below average temperatures for this time of year and a good deal of cloud cover. The heaviest rain is expected this afternoon when widespread rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected from the coast to the Cascades. The strongest showers and storms will produce heavy downpours. Mainly dry and cool Sunday through Friday, aside from isolated light showers mainly in the mountains. && .DISCUSSION...Saturday afternoon through Friday night...Radar imagery early Saturday afternoon shows showers widespread showers have formed across NW OR and SW WA as a closed low pushes south into the region. PWAT values on SPC`s mesoscale analysis page are reaching 0.7-0.8 inches, and model soundings still indicate the depth of the warm cloud layer is around 3500 meters. This means showers this morning and early afternoon, even ones that seem small and benign on radar, are producing very decent rain rates. Some showers are becoming stronger as they encounter the western slopes of the Cascades and Coast Range due to orographic lifting, and these could produce very heavy rain. The closed upper level low will continue moving directly overhead through the day, which will continue to bring increasing moisture, lift, and instability. REFS ensemble mean soundings continue to suggest surface-based CAPE values will increase towards 250-400 J/kg for inland areas this afternoon, while the NBM mean suggests the same. This means all of the ingredients are in place today for isolated thunderstorms along with the widespread showers. NBM probabilities for thunderstorms peak near 20-40% this afternoon. The main impact with the strongest showers and thunderstorms are heavy downpours. Because the warm cloud layer is so high, it will be very difficult for hail to form. Given weak cloud- layer winds/slow storm motion, heavy downpours will have the potential to last long enough over any given location to produce upwards of 0.25-0.50 inches of rain in one hour or less. Rain rates of this magnitude are high enough to result in ponding of water in urban areas and increase the risk of short- lived minor flooding in areas with poor drainage. Heavy downpours will also pose a safety hazard for motorists due to an increased risk of hydroplaning, as well as reduced visibilities. It is also worth mentioning that isolated non- mesocyclonic cold air funnel clouds are occasionally observed in this type of weather pattern, however the rotation with these typically fails to lower to the ground and thus damage does not occur. If rotation with one of these were to lower to the ground, it would be considered a weak landspout, and damage tends to be extremely isolated if any occurs at all. Rain amounts trend much lighter on Sunday as the upper level low shifts eastward into Idaho and showers become lighter and more isolated. Most of the showery activity on Sunday will be confined to the Cascades, Cascade foothills, and Coast Range. Sunday will also be another cool day with a good deal of cloud cover and highs in the 60s across the lowlands. General longwave troughing over the western US continues Monday through Wednesday, keeping temperatures cooler than average. However, conditions are trending mainly dry Monday through Wednesday, aside from isolated light showers in the mountains from time to time. Rain chances increase to 20-40% for both the lowlands and the mountains for Thursday into Friday with temperatures remaining cooler. -23/03 && .AVIATION...Cool and moist onshore flow will continue to bring widespread cloud cover and periodic rain showers across the airspace through at least 18Z Sun. Showers will be most widespread and heavy until 00Z Sun. From now until 21Z Sat, there is a 25-45% chance of thunderstorms at any given hour then higher confidence for prevailing thunderstorms from 21Z Sat to 00Z Sun for inland TAF sites. Probabilities are a bit lower at the coast at 15-30%. Chances for thunderstorms then lower to 15-20% for all terminals between 00-03Z Sun. Stronger showers and thunderstorms today will bring the potential for heavy downpours with surface visibilities as low as 2 SM for brief periods of time. With convection today, outflow winds are not expected to be particularly strong but may cause abrupt shifts in wind direction as showers and/or storms pass by. Expect a mixture of MVFR/VFR CIGs at all terminals throughout the TAF period, with MVFR CIGs mainly occurring with passing showers or thunderstorms. After 06-12Z Sun, guidance suggests the possibility (20-40% chance inland, 60-80% chance at the coast) of prevailing MVFR CIGs through at least 18Z Sun. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Mainly VFR CIGs through at least 18Z Sun. Occasional drops to MVFR CIGs possible with passing showers or thunderstorms. Thunderstorm probabilities peak near 45% between 18Z Saturday and 00Z Sunday, with the highest confidence for prevailing thunderstorms between 21Z Sat and 00Z Sun. Chances for thunderstorms lower to 15-20% between 00-03Z Sun, then less than 15% thereafter. Stronger showers and storms will bring heavy downpours with surface visibilities briefly falling as low as 2 SM. Outflow winds are not expected to be strong with passing showers and storms, however abrupt shifts in the wind direction are likely. ~12 && .MARINE...Winds and seas increase today through Sunday as a pair of fronts move southward over the coastal waters and persistent northwesterly winds allow for the development of a fresh northwest swell upwards of 7 to 9 ft at 9 seconds, highest over the outer waters beyond 10 NM offshore. Monday, weak high pressure builds over the waters, however northwest winds will continue to build the northwest swell into wave heights around 8 to 11 ft. There is a 20 to 40 percent chance significant wave heights will peak over 11 ft beyond 30 NM offshore on Monday, mainly to the north of Cape Falcon. Northwest winds and a fresh northwest swell then continues Tuesday through Wednesday, maintaining steep seas and hazardous conditions for small craft. Given steep seas and wind gusts up to 20 to 25 kt over the outer waters, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the outer waters through Monday evening. Additionally, a Small Craft Advisory over the inner waters remains in effect until late Sunday for steep seas. ~12/23 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Monday for PZZ251. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ252-253. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Monday for PZZ271>273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

090 FXUS66 KMFR 271242 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 542 AM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 .DISCUSSION...Key Points: * Breezy northwest afternoon and evening winds will remain a little stronger than normal during the next week. This includes the strongest winds at the coast south of Cape Blanco, and winds generally a little stronger in south central Oregon and northern California than in southwest Oregon. * Light showers will be mainly near the higher terrain through this evening, except into Sunday for Coos and Douglas counties. Amounts of 0.10 to 0.50 inches were common yesterday. Additional showers should mostly amount to up to 0.10 inches, perhaps up to 0.25 inches in eastern Douglas County. A few flakes of snow are still possible for the Cascades above 6000 feet today into early Sunday. * Instability will be weak, but there is also a slight chance of afternoon and evening thunderstorms for Douglas County into northwest Klamath County (near Crater Lake)and from southeast Siskiyou County eastward,with the highest probability for southern portions of Modoc County... south of Alturas. * This afternoon will likely be the coolest for quite some time, perhaps of the remainder of the summer, with highs around 20 degrees below normal. A gradual warming and drying trend under a stable air mass is then expected Sunday through at least into Wednesday, but with temperatures remaining below normal. * Part of this cool to cold episode is east side lows on Sunday and Monday mornings at around 10 degrees below normal, in the 30s. The forecast Sunday morning lows are expected to remain above freezing, and reflect a blend of the NBM and an analog of recent readings to nudge values higher in consideration of expected cloud cover and MOS guidance. Values should be very similar on Monday morning with a slight warming of the overall air mass counteracted by lesser cloud cover. * Low clouds are expected at the coast through Friday morning, with some lifting of cloud ceilings and afternoon breaks in the clouds, particularly from Wednesday onward. Otherwise, low clouds will return to west side valleys tonight into Sunday morning and each night at least into Wednesday morning, with the thickest clouds and longest duration of night and morning coverage for the Umpqua Valley. * The upper level pattern during next week will generally remain trough-dominated. This weekend`s cold system will be followed by a couple of weak shortwaves in the northerly flow on Monday, then a persistent, broad, but relatively weak trough Tuesday through Thursday or Friday. The details are too early to discern with confidence. It will mainly be dry, but weak instability and some shower chances cannot be ruled out...particularly for Thursday and/or Friday. Inland high temperatures in the 70s are expected to be common across our area. * Weak ridging is likely at least for Saturday, perhaps for all of the holiday weekend with inland high temperatures returning to near or slightly above normal, in the 80s. This should also bring sunshine to the coast. && .AVIATION...27/12Z TAFs...Light, scattered showers will continue across the area through this evening, except for Coos and Douglas counties (including North Bend and Roseburg) into Sunday. This will continue to produce a mix of MVFR and VFR conditions into Sunday morning with occasional obscuration of the higher terrain. Low level northwest winds this afternoon and evening will again be mostly breezy at 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt, locally windy, which is stronger than typical. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening both from Douglas County into northwest Klamath County (near Crater Lake)and from southeast Siskiyou County eastward,with the highest probability for southern portions of Modoc County... south of Alturas. && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday, June 27, 2026...Low clouds with patchy fog and occasional light showers will continue through Sunday morning. Northerly winds increase today and will continue to strengthen early next week. Meantime, a fresh west- northwest swell will be steep in the outer waters late this morning through this evening. Seas then increase slightly late tonight into Sunday morning, becoming steep in the inner waters north of Cape Blanco also. The stronger winds will likely generate very steep seas south of Gold Beach later Sunday, with steep seas elsewhere. Gales are possible south of Gold Beach Monday into Wednesday, with the strongest winds during the afternoon and evening hours of Monday and Tuesday. Otherwise, fresh northwest swell may continue steep seas early next week into Thursday. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ356. Hazardous Seas Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ350. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM PDT Monday for PZZ370-376. && $$

452 FXUS66 KEKA 270724 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1224 AM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Unseasonably cool temperatures persist today with interior highs limited to the 60s and 70s. * Coastal light rain and drizzle will taper off by mid-morning. * Strong, gusty northerly winds develop late tonight into Sunday morning across interior ridges and coastal areas. * A significant marine event develops late this weekend through midweek, bringing a prolonged period of gale-force winds and steep, hazardous waves. * A 10% chance of thunderstorms exists over interior Del Norte and far northern Trinity counties this afternoon. .SYNOPSIS...A strong cold front crossing the region tonight continues to bring unseasonably cool air and high humidity. Light rain along the coast will end by late morning, giving way to clearing skies inland. A rapid warming and drying trend begins Sunday as high pressure builds over the west, though strong northerly winds will persist over ridges and coastal waters. && .DISCUSSION...The core of an unseasonably strong upper-level trough is pushing across the Pacific Northwest tonight. The accompanying surface front is currently shifting winds out of the north-northwest and driving a cold advection pattern across northwestern California. High temperatures today will feel highly anomalous for late June, topping out only in the mid-50s to lower 60s along the coast and 60s and 70s in the interior valleys. Far interior peaks may struggle to exit the 50s. Light rain and drizzle will continue to dampen coastal sections of Humboldt and Del Norte counties through the morning hours before trailing off as dry air builds into the region. Cold air destabilization aloft will generate a marginal 10% chance for thunderstorm development this afternoon over far northern Trinity and interior Del Norte counties. Tonight into Sunday morning will feature the coldest temperatures of the period. Clear skies and decoupling winds in sheltered valleys will support lows tumbling into the mid-30s in interior Humboldt and Trinity counties. Current NBM joint probabilities indicate a 10 to 20 percent chance of frost in these interior areas when factoring in wind speed, sky cover, and temperature probabilities. High pressure quickly builds inland on Sunday, initiating a gradual warming trend. Sunday interior highs will be in the 70s to lower 80s, peaking in the mid-to-upper 80s by midweek before a weak secondary trough brings slight cooling late next week. && .AVIATION...Post-frontal low-level moisture is maintaining widespread IFR to MVFR ceilings and localized visibility restrictions in mist/drizzle along the coast at KACV and KCEC early this morning. Aviation could be tricky through the dawn hours, and conditions could really bounce around during the early morning hours before following a consistent improving trend. Ceilings are forecast to slowly lift to MVFR by late morning (18Z) before drier air breaks through inland. Northwest winds will pick up by this afternoon, gusting up to 23 knots at KACV. Inland at KUKI, VFR conditions will prevail through the entire TAF period, supported by robust north- northwest winds gusting to 21 knots through Saturday afternoon. && .MARINE...The cold front has cleared the waters, shifting winds entirely to the northwest. High pressure building offshore will compress the local pressure gradient significantly over the next 48 hours. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected later today for the southern waters as northerly winds build to 2025 knots with gusts to 35 knots, lasting through Sunday morning. A Gale Watch will be issued for the outer waters and southern inner waters from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday evening. While the combination of sustained northerly winds of 25 to 30 knots and short dominant periods would meet Hazardous Seas Warning criteria across the outer waters and southern inner waters Monday night through Wednesday night (seas 11 to 13 feet at 9 to 10 seconds), our message will highlight the persistent wind over the waters coming, as the potential Gale Warning would take precedent over a hazardous seas product. && .FIRE WEATHER...A dramatic pattern shift is realized today behind the strong cold front. Near-term fire weather concerns are muted across northern zones due to high relative humidity values, with minimums remaining mainly above 4050% today, alongside recent wetting rains across Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties. However, dry interior zones across Southern Trinity and Lake counties will miss out on precipitation entirely. Humidity recoveries for eastern Lake County for Friday night will be more modest, in the 50 to 60 percent range, while remaining excellent elsewhere at 80 to 100 percent. Strong westerly winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 to 40 mph will lash exposed ridges in Lake, eastern Mendocino, and Southern Trinity counties through this afternoon. High pressure returns Sunday, bringing a swift return to warmer and drier conditions through midweek. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from noon today to noon PDT Sunday for PZZ455-475. Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through Wednesday evening for PZZ455-470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

637 FXUS66 KMTR 272015 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 115 PM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1225 AM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 - Gusty onshore winds through the evening with gusts at gaps and passes up to 50 mph. Strong winds over the waters with marine impacts through early next week - Temperatures warm Sunday into early in the week, although HeatRisk remains in the Minor category - Beach hazards through Wednesday morning for south and southwest facing beaches along the Pacific Coast && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 106 PM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 (This evening through Sunday night) An upper level trough moving across the Pacific Northwest will keep breezy to windy conditions in place through the evening across the Bay Area and Central Coast. Expect gusts 20-40 mph, except up to 50 mph through gaps and passes, through the evening before subsiding overnight. After this morning`s drizzle, light rain showers, and widespread cloud cover, drier air moving in from the north will keep skies mostly clear through the evening. A much more shallow marine layer and drier air will greatly reduce the amount of stratus overnight into Sunday morning compared to the past couple of nights. However, stratus is still expected in coastal areas along the Central Coast as well as higher terrain due to uplift from northwesterly flow. On Sunday, the center of the trough will move away from the area. This will keep the marine layer compressed with mostly clear skies by the afternoon. High temperatures will rise 5-10 degrees from today as a result, with 60s along the coast, upper 60s to 70s along the Bay shoreline, and 70s to low 80s in the interior. Despite the warming, HeatRisk is expected to remain Minor. Onshore winds will become breezy once again in the afternoon and evening, but weaker than today with gusts 15-30 mph, except up to 40 mph through gaps/passes. Stratus should increase Sunday night, but the shallow marine layer will limit inland development. Along the Pacific coastal beaches, there is a possibility for marginal coastal flooding. Due to the upcoming full moon (Monday), thermal expansion of Pacific waters, and southerly swells, coastal flooding for low lying beaches at predominantly south facing beaches is possible at high tides through Monday. An uptick in long period southerly swell will result in a high risk of rip currents and sneaker waves. Never turn your back to the ocean! Beach hazards will be in effect through the weekend and into much of next week, see the beaches discussion for more information. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 106 PM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 (Monday through next Friday) Temperatures will continue their upward trajectory on Monday as an upper ridge over the Eastern Pacific nudges inland. Temperatures along the coast will hold nearly steady, while highs in the interior rise a few more degrees. However, the warming trend will end Tuesday as another upper trough moves into the Pacific Northwest. This will bring cooler, below normal temperatures once again by Wednesday and Thursday as the trough ushers in cooler air aloft. Onshore flow will also increase along with the potential for a deeper marine layer and coastal drizzle. Onshore winds will be breezy to windy each afternoon and evening. By Friday, ensembles are more split on the evolution of the pattern, but ridging becomes a possibility. This is reflected in the forecast by an uptick in temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 AM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Lower clouds are scattering and eroding, while mid and high clouds continue to move through the area. Winds increase across the region into the afternoon becoming breezy to gusty with the strongest winds expected along the coast and around the SF Bay, affecting HAF, OAK, and SFO. Winds will ease into the night for most areas, the exceptions being SFO and HAF that remain windy and breezy into the late night. Cloud cover returns to the Monterey Bay into the late night with MVFR CIGs and light to moderate winds. This cloud cover erodes into the mid morning on Sunday, leading to widespread VFR. Vicinity of SFO...Cloud cover continues to lift and scatter with clearer conditions expected into the afternoon as west winds build. Strong gusts build develop into the mid afternoon, peaking around 35 kts. These winds last into the night before reducing. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Cloud cover is clearing leading to VFR as breezy west winds arrive. Winds will reduce slightly into the evening but remain breezy as scattered low clouds affect the area. Winds become light to moderate in the late night as MVFR CIGs fill over the terminals. These CIGs look to scatter into mid Sunday morning. && .MARINE... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 1155 AM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 Breezy northwest winds continue through the morning. Stronger winds become more widespread across the the waters this afternoon and through the night. These strong winds and rough seas will result in hazardous conditions for small craft across the waters at times well into the work week. Expect gale force gusts to develop in the northern outer waters and along coastal jet regions over the weekend as well. Long period southwest swell will persist through the extended forecast. && .BEACHES... Updated at 100 PM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 A Beach Hazards Statement has been issued for the Pacific Coast Beaches through Wednesday morning as long period southerly swell returns to the coast, creating an increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Tuesday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Mry Bay-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 3 AM PDT Monday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Monday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tangen LONG TERM....Tangen AVIATION...Murdock MARINE...Murdock Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

570 FXUS66 KOTX 271817 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1117 AM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and rain showers persist over the weekend and through much of next week. - Thunderstorm chances will be present across the northern mountains and northern Idaho panhandle each afternoon. && .UPDATE... The early morning thunderstorm activity diminished over the last 2 hours leaving scattered showers circulating around the upper level low. Earlier heavy showers briefly produced .5 to 1.25 inches of rain just west of Grand Coulee. Over the next 2 hours between 11am and 1pm, expect showers to intensify with lightning activity mainly confined to the northeast WA mountains. As mentioned in the earlier discussion, it won`t take much to initiate shower activity, especially with the close proximity of the upper cold core low. A stray shower or two may find itself meandering closer to Spokane-CdA metro this afternoon. Currently, the Spokane-CdA corridor is outside of the SPC Day 1 general thunderstorm outlook but we are still advertising a non- zero chance (5-10%) this afternoon. We will keep a close eye on the shower activity and update as necessary. && .SYNOPSIS... The weather pattern over the weekend and through much of next week will be characterized by cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and rain showers for much of the region. Thunderstorm chances will recur each afternoon over the northern mountains and the northern Idaho panhandle. && .DISCUSSION... Today and Sunday: The Low will continue to move through the region for the weekend. For Saturday, it will be centered over the Pacific Northwest. Ensembles have the system drier than Friday as precipitable water values are 80-90% of normal for the most of the region. Northeast WA and North ID are only locations that are above 100%. Chances of precip are highest in these areas. Amounts are expected to be near a tenth. Weak instability could also generate an isolated thunderstorm for Saturday with the best chances in the northern mountains. Impacts will mainly be gusty outflow winds, infrequent lightning, and brief heavy rain. Decent thermal gradients across the Basin will continue the breezy winds of sustained in the teens and gusts into the 20s during the late morning and afternoon. Winds calm overnight night as the region stabilizes. BY Sunday, the Low has shifted to Southern Idaho. It pulls a decent fetch of moisture from Central Canada. It increases precipitable into the 120-130% range across the Inland Northwest. Precip chances spread to most of the region excluding the southern portion of Washington`s Columbia Basin. Highest precip will be in the Idaho Panhandle with 25-75% probability spread of 0.3-1 inch. The portions of Washington have a spread of 0.1-0.5 inch. Weak instability continues to be limited to northern mountains. Winds will continue to be breezy during the daytime. Highs will be in the upper 60s to low 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s and low 50s. Monday through Friday: An offshore High will be far enough off the coast that the region will be under a weak trough pattern for the week. While the region be on a warming trend, a continuous stream of moderate, moist air will keep temperatures in the milder 70s and 80s range. Precip chances will continue through the period but best chances will be over the higher terrain through most of the week. Another Low is expected to pass through on Friday bringing a round of widespread showers before the 4th of July. Winds will continue to be breezy especially the Cascade Gaps. /JDC && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: MVFR conditions can be found around central Washingston centered around a cold core low pressure that is also triggering scattered showers at this hour. VFR conditions are prevailing elsewhere at the moment, including all TAF sites. We anticipate shower activity to increase and intensify over the next few hours, resulting in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across north Washington, particularly over the mountainous areas. There is a low probability (<20%) that stray showers will develop along the GEG-SFF-COE corridor this afternoon and early evening. The multiple layers of clouds are expected to continue through the TAF period with more widespread MVFR ceilings likely to develop over Idaho late tonight. COE- PUW- LWS should expect a cloud deck of 3k ft or lower to bring light rain as moisture wraps around the low pressure. This same area of low pressure will also help increase the southwest winds during the latter portion of the TAF period across the Columbia Basin. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low confidence in the location and intensity of showers impacting TAF sites. Moderate confidence in light rain and MVFR conditions developing over north Idaho Sunday morning. High confidence in increased gusty winds by Sunday afternoon. AB ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 69 49 73 50 67 48 / 20 20 10 50 50 20 Coeur d`Alene 68 49 69 50 63 49 / 20 10 20 70 80 30 Pullman 65 44 66 44 62 43 / 10 10 20 40 60 20 Lewiston 71 53 72 54 70 51 / 20 10 20 30 60 20 Colville 70 42 76 48 73 44 / 70 30 10 50 60 70 Sandpoint 67 46 67 47 62 47 / 30 20 30 80 80 50 Kellogg 64 47 62 47 59 47 / 20 10 50 80 90 30 Moses Lake 74 49 81 50 77 49 / 30 20 10 10 10 10 Wenatchee 72 55 77 57 77 56 / 20 10 10 0 0 10 Omak 73 50 82 55 79 54 / 50 30 0 10 20 40 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

473 FXUS66 KPDT 271713 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1013 AM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler Today - Increasingly Breezy to Windy overnight peaking Sunday Afternoon && .DISCUSSION... A combination of nighttime microphysics RGB GOES satellite and METAR data showed pockets of mostly clear conditions across the Lower Columbia Basin, but scattered to broken over most of the Blue Mtn Foothills, Cascades and eastern Mountains overnight, as the boundary layer was under a westerly and relative drier push of air. As wetter ground, colder air aloft and clouds to day influence the thermal profiles, temperatures are anticipated to be even cooler struggling into he lower 70s even across the typically warmer Lower Columbia Basin by the late afternoon. The pattern of upper troughing will continue to influence the cross Cascades pressure gradient as models converge on Sunday as a much more windy day through the gaps and Lower Columbia basin/Kittitas valley, underscored by breezy to windy conditions overnight Saturday increasing though Sunday Afternoon. Slowly rebounding temperatures with continued westerly surface flow through much of next week before some ensembles/cluster differences of potential impact by Friday through Sunday. Cluster 4 the more potentially wet and cooler solution with a cutoff upper low along the PAC NW coast for the July 4th Holiday weekend, is also seemingly more of an outlier to the other clusters as members account for only about 11% of the total. Even adding in cluster 3 while not a closed low is also a cooler troughing lower height solution, the cooler wetter patterns account for about 30%. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/... Westerly winds will become increasingly breezy across the region this forecast period. Most sites are seeing winds above 12 kts with gusts nearing 20-30kts except BDN, which will see winds after 19Z. DLS/YKM are both also expecting some wind shear WS019/28035KT for DLS and WS020/31040KT for YKM. Lastly, BDN/RDM have a 30% chance or less of isolated vicinity thunderstorms after 21Z persisting through 00Z. && .FIRE WEATHER... Isolated dry thunderstorms with lightning risk is possible this afternoon in the Cascade Crest and John Day Highlands (10-20 % confidence). Other than that, limited fire weather is expected risk over the weekend as cooler weather takes hold, limiting the lower bounds for afternoon relative humidity. Westerly winds will be getting stronger through the overnight and into Sunday afternoon as relative humidity Sunday afternoon remains around 40% or higher across central Oregon and into the Columbia Basin. Isolated dry thunderstorm with lightning risk is possible this afternoon in the Cascade Crest and John Day Highlands (10-20 % confidence). && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 69 46 73 47 / 0 10 10 10 ALW 71 52 74 52 / 10 10 10 10 PSC 76 50 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 74 49 81 51 / 0 10 10 0 HRI 73 48 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 67 46 71 48 / 0 10 10 0 RDM 62 36 67 35 / 20 20 0 0 LGD 63 44 66 45 / 20 30 20 10 GCD 62 39 66 40 / 70 50 20 10 DLS 70 52 73 52 / 20 10 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...90 FIRE WEATHER...99

679 FXUS65 KREV 271837 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1137 AM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Gusty to strong winds today will lead to critical fire weather conditions. Remain fire aware. * Winds today will also result in dangerous boating conditions, areas of blowing dust, outdoor recreation impacts, and cross winds for high profile vehicles. * Much cooler weather continues into Monday with shower and thunderstorm chances north of Highway 50. && .DISCUSSION... Peak wind gusts so far today range from 35-40 mph across much of the area. Expect similar wind speeds to continue through this evening, with localized gusts up to 45 mph (50+ mph in wind prone locations along US-395 from Herlong Junction to Coleville/Walker). These winds will result in critical fire weather conditions, see the Fire Weather discussion below for more details, as well as hazardous boating conditions on lakes. Difficult travel for high profile vehicles and reduced visibilities from blowing dust are also in the cards today. Showers and thunderstorms currently persist in north central NV as of this writing. As daytime heating increases, we can expect additional chances for showers and a stray lightning strike. The main area of concern will be north of I-80 in Pershing county as well as in NE CA and northern Washoe county along the OR border. A potent cold front will track southward today, impacting our area after 5 PM; resulting in a wind switch to out of the north/northeast. We are also expecting additional shower chances late tonight into early Sunday morning. Hi-res models show a general band of showers developing along a southwest to northeast line from the central valley around Oroville up to just north of Pyramid Lake. This line will progress southeastward, encompassing Truckee/Donner up through Fernley and possibly Lovelock. As the line interacts with the terrain around the Tahoe Basin, it`ll be sheared off, meaning our friends south of Spooner Summit will likely miss out on any precipitation. What of the precipitation type? The preceding cold front will help drop temperatures into the upper 30s. As such, snow levels drop to about 7500 ft, which will align with the shower chances. Snow flurries aren`t out of the question for the higher peaks of the Sierra in the Tahoe Basin, though lower elevations can expect rain. Any accumulations of either the liquid or frozen type will be little to none. Sunday morning will be quite cold, with a 60% chance for Sierra communities (Truckee, South Lake Tahoe, Bridgeport, etc.) to drop to near or below freezing. Monday will be another cold morning, though chances for similar temperatures drop to 30-40%. Afternoon highs will be much cooler for the next week, only increasing to the mid 80s and low 70s for valleys and higher elevations, respectively, by Wednesday. The EC shows another low dropping down Monday, with partial agreement from the GFS. This will help keep temps down, and increase chances for showers. However, confidence remains low on this feature so check back here for more details. -Giralte && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected for all terminals through this evening though mountain wave turbulence will impact all terminals today. Peak surface gusts of 25-45 kts at terminals today, with mountain top winds of 50-70 kts. LLWS likely after 21z today for KRNO/KCXP/KTRK/KTVL with passage of the cold front. Showers along and north of a line from KTVL-KNFL may lower ceilings to MVFR from 9-14z. Northerly winds of 20-30 kts expected for Sunday with VFR conditions for all terminals. -Giralte/Brong && .FIRE WEATHER... Red Flag conditions continue for western NV today with wind gusts of 30-50 mph, dry fuels, and lower RH values. Avoid activities that may cause a spark such as target shooting, driving motorized vehicles over dry grasses and vegetation, dragging trailer chains, and lighting fireworks. Shower and thunderstorm chances will accompany the cold front today, but will mainly persist north of I-80 before a line of showers drops south early Sunday morning. Outside of Lassen and northern Washoe counties, wetting rains will be limited or non- existent. The Tahoe Basin and eastern Sierra in Mono County will have winds of 30-50 mph with gusts up to 80 mph over ridges today. While fuels for these regions have not been reported to be critically dry, fire may quickly spread in pockets of dry fuels when coupled with strong winds. Cooler temperatures and lighter winds arrive Sunday and Monday. -Giralte/Brong && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ420. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ001>004. Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ423-429. CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening CAZ071>073. && $$

459 FXUS66 KSTO 271834 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1134 AM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for isolated mountain showers/thunderstorms today. - Elevated fire weather conditions Sunday-Monday due to increased North winds across portions of the Valley. - Cooler temperatures and breezy onshore flow expected Tuesday onward. && .DISCUSSION... A trough from the Gulf of Alaska continues to move through the area today, bringing isolated light showers and a 10-20% chance for isolated mountain thunderstorms this afternoon. Primary areas of concern today are over the southern Cascades and eastern Shasta County. Additionally, enhanced onshore winds are expected through the Delta and Valley through today introducing cooler temperatures and higher humidities throughout the area. As the trough exits into the Great Basin area, north winds increase on Sunday through the western portions of the Sacramento Valley & Delta. This will result in renewed fire weather conditions Sunday into Monday. Strongest winds are expected Sunday morning. Since the strongest winds are forecast during the morning hours, they will not coincide with the lowest relative humidities. That being said, winds will still remain gusty through the afternoon hours when relative humidities will be in the teens to low 20s. The majority of elevated fire weather conditions will be in the northern Sacramento Valley along and west of I-5. Monday sees significantly weaker winds and therefore also lower fire weather concerns. Deterministic EC and GFS continue to depict a lobe of energy phasing out of the exiting trough, though now primarily on Monday. This may introduce additional mountain shower and thunderstorm chances north of I-80. The overall environment will be dry which may negate any shower development, however, the feature will be closely monitored for any significant changes and/or additional fire weather concerns. Moving further into the week, another cooling trend is expected Tuesday and beyond, resulting in below normal temperatures across interior NorCal and periods of breezy onshore flow in the forecast. && .AVIATION... General VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. South to southwest wind gusts to 15 to 20 kts until 07Z Sunday the in central/southern Sacramento Valley, and 15-25 kts in the Delta until 10Z Sunday. Winds shift out of the north through the Sac Valley after 10Z Sunday, with gusts 15 to 25 kts through 00Z Monday. 10-15% chance isolated thunderstorms in eastern Shasta County and the southern Cascades through 05z Sunday bringing local MVFR/IFR conditions. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

325 FXUS65 KMSO 270844 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 244 AM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Dramatic shift to colder and wet weather today into the weekend, as temperatures fall 20-30 degrees. - Significant hypothermia risk across backcountry and high elevation areas with snow and cold temperatures above 6,500 feet. A cold front tracked across north-central Idaho and western Montana yesterday, with rainfall totals ranging between 0.10" to 0.50". The highest totals were in the terrain of north-central Idaho and the Anacond-Pintal. Current radar scans have showers re-developing over north-central Idaho this morning that will become more widespread into western-Montana through mid-morning` A closed low will stall across south-central Idaho this weekend, with snow levels falling as cold air moves overhead aloft. Model guidance suggests a widespread shield of precipitation forming over areas along and south of the I-90 Corridor, and snow-levels dropping near 6,000-6,500 feet across Lemhi County, ID mountain ranges, the Bitterroot, Sapphire, and Anaconda-Pintler Mountains, and along the Continental Divide this evening into Monday morning. Winter Storm Warnings remain for these areas, given cold temperatures and wet heavy snow bringing hypothermia concerns and difficult travel across backcountry areas. Furthermore, heavy, wet snow may lead to downed trees, potentially blocking access to backcountry roads and travel. Lower elevations will experience widespread rain today into Sunday morning as the upper level low spins along and south of the I-90 corridor. Locations south of a line from Missoula to Helena will see the highest rain amounts during this period, having a 60-80 percent chance of picking up 1 inch or more of rain by Sunday morning. Those planning outdoor recreation on any small streams and rivers, should be prepared for rapidly changing flows and much cooler temperatures. Looking ahead to Sunday, the closed low will pick up speed, tracking through western Montana, before settling east of the divide through Monday morning. As the low tracks along and east of the divide, precipitation shifts northward in Northwest Montana. The heaviest rain will focus along the Continental Divide, in Glacier Park, and along the west slopes of the Swan and Mission Mountains. Widespread rain will continue across northwest Montana for much of the day Monday, before the low departs eastward on Tuesday. Rain amounts have continued to trend higher for these areas, with 24-hour (ending 6pm Monday) median (most-likely) precipitation amounts of 0.50-1.00 inches forecast across northwest Montana near the Idaho border, with amounts increasing to 1.25-2.25 inches along the US-93 corridor from Eureka, through the Flathead and Mission Valleys. The highest totals are expected across Glacier Park, and the Mission and Swan Mountains, where 2.00-3.00 inches could fall. Those heading into Glacier Park Sunday into Monday should prepare for cold and raw conditions, especially at Logan Pass and the higher elevations. Guidance continues to suggests unsettled weather will continue Tuesday into Wednesday as a NW Pacific disturbance moves across Washington and Oregon into the Northern Rockies. These systems will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. && .AVIATION...A closed low will stall across south-central Idaho this weekend, with snow levels falling as cold air moves overhead aloft. Model guidance suggests a widespread shield of precipitation forming over areas along and south of the I-90 Corridor. Widespread rainshowers will periodically impact visibility and bring lower ceilings for all aviation sites by mid-morning in west-central and southwest Montana, and northwest Montana by this afternoon and evening. KBTM, KSMN, and KHRF will be under an area of more instability, where isolated thunderstorms have the ability to form between 27/2200Z-and 28/0300Z this evening. Brief heavy rainfall and small hail, along with lightning will be the main threats. Vicinity fog may be an issue for KMSO and KGPI early this morning before sunrise, though widespread visibility reductions at the terminals are not expected. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Monday for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region. ID...Winter Storm Warning from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Monday for Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County. && $$

278 FXUS65 KBOI 272032 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 232 PM MDT Sat Jun 27 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening could produce strong outflow winds, small hail and brief heavy rain. - Unseasonably cold air arrives Sunday. This will bring lowering snow levels with measurable snowfall expected above 6500 feet on Sunday. - Temperatures remaining 15 to 20 Sunday degrees below normal on Monday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Monday Night/... An active short term period continues as an upper level low moves across the area this afternoon and into Montana tonight. For the remainder of this afternoon and through this evening, the primary focus will be on thunderstorm development. These storms are expected to bring heavy rain, small hail, and gusty winds, with the most widespread activity centered over southwest Idaho. Given the high moisture content and slow storm motion, the strongest convective cells could produce enough intense rainfall to cause localized flooding. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening for the Wapiti burn scar. Anyone near the burn area or within the central Idaho mountains should remain alert, as rock or mud slides are a distinct possibility with any heavy downpours. The upper level low is projected to move eastward into Montana tonight. As it does, wrap around precipitation and significantly colder air will pull into central Idaho from the north and backside of the system. This setup will keep a steady threat of showers over the Central Idaho Mountains through Sunday. With the influx of cold air, snow levels will drop rapidly, bringing measurable snowfall to areas above 6500 feet on Sunday. Travel over higher mountain passes could become slick and slushy. Precipitation will gradually taper off Sunday night as the main low pulls further away. The region remains under a cool northerly flow on Monday as the upper low sits to our east. This pattern will keep temperatures well below seasonal normals, running about 15 to 18 degrees colder than typical late June averages. A lingering 20% chance of precipitation will persist across the west central mountains through Monday afternoon before dry air takes over completely. && .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... Ensembles remain in good agreement with long wave troughing remaining in place into the holiday weekend. The trough axis migrates just to the east of the area should drop the available moisture which will reduce the potential for precipitation mid week. By Thursday, the next low pressure system from Alaska looks to reach the Pacific Northwest coast. This will shift the flow to the southwest and increase moisture aloft. Most guidance shows the trough and cold front moving inland on Friday which will increase the chances for thunderstorms across the area. Temperatures will remain below normal through the period with the warmest day looking like Thursday at about 5 degrees below normal. && .AVIATION /18Z Saturday through Sunday/... Issued 1239 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2026 Generally VFR. Scattered/numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. MVFR/IFR conditions possible in thunder and showers. Thunderstorms capable of heavy rain, small hail, and gusts to 30 kt. Thunder tapering off after Sun/00z, with showers lingering overnight, mainly over the W-Central ID Mtns. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt in the afternoon. Then W-NW 5-15 kt overnight, except W-SW 10-15 kt with gusts to around 25 kt near KTWF/KJER. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 15-25 kt. KBOI...Generally VFR, with brief MVFR/IFR conditions possible in showers/thunder. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continuing this afternoon, a 25-30% chance of thunder impacting terminal through Sun/00z. Thunder capable of heavy rain, small hail, and 30 kt outflows. Showers tapering off after Sun/00z. Ceilings lowering to MVFR early Sun/AM. Surface winds: W-NW 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt this afternoon. Then NW 8-13 kt overnight. Sunday Outlook...VFR/MVFR in low ceilings and precip, with localized IFR in mtn rain/snow. continuing Sunday, especially over central ID. Isolated PM thunderstorms near NV border and W-Central ID Mtns. Mtn obscuration. Snow levels lowering to 6500-7500ft MSL Sunday morning. Gusty W-NW surface winds Sunday afternoon. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...Flash Flood Watch until 9 PM MDT this evening for IDZ013. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JDS AVIATION.....NF

122 FXUS65 KLKN 270908 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 208 AM PDT Sat Jun 27 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers and thunderstorms continue across Northern Nevada today * Strong wind gusts to 50 mph will develop throughout Northern and Central Nevada this afternoon and evening * Critical fire weather conditions are expected today across portions of Central Nevada due to gusty winds and low humidity * A Freeze Watch for portions of Elko county has been issued for the potential of freezing temperatures tonight into Sunday morning * A Frost Advisory may be required for the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada both Saturday night and Sunday night && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: An upper level low is centered along the Washington state coastline early this Saturday morning. Light to moderate rain showers continue across portions of Northern Nevada this morning and afternoon. Weak instability across mainly Humboldt and Elko Counties will produce isolated to scattered thunderstorms through the late afternoon to early evening hours. The upper level low off the WA coast this morning will drift south and east to center over Eastern Oregon by this afternoon. Strong H3 jet energy of around 125kts to the west and south of the center of low pressure will pass over Northern and Central Nevada today, resulting in westerly winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts of 35 to 50 mph across most of Northeastern and Central NV from late this Saturday morning through late this evening. While rainfall is expected across much the region north of I-80 today, dry conditions and gusty winds south of I-80 are expected to result in areas of blowing dust this afternoon and evening. Visibilities may at times be reduced to 3 miles or less. Much cooler today with highs across Northern Nevada in the 50s and 60s. The upper level low weakens tonight as it continues to drift south and east. A cold northerly flow aloft tonight will help low temperature dip into the 30s across much of Northern and portions of Central Nevada by early Sunday morning. A frost advisory remains in effect for most of Elko County for tonight. The cold air mass lingers across the Great Basin Sunday with a 35% chance of light rain showers across the northern half of the CWA. Reinforcing low pressure digging south through CA Sunday night into Monday will help hold the cold air mass over NV, with low temperatures trending still colder Monday morning, where low 30s to upper 20s will be possible across most valley locations across both Northern and Central NV. Broad trough energy continues across the Western US through the middle of next week keeping temperatures below normal. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence is gusty west wind today. Moderate confidence in showers and thunderstorms across portions of Northern NV today. Moderate to high confidence of critical fire weather conditions across Central NV today, though RHs may only lower into the 15-20% range across northern portions of zones 425 and 427. Moderate to high confidence of low temperatures tonight across Elko County lowering into the low to mid 30s. No deviation from the NBM with this forecast package. && .AVIATION...A storm system will impact the region today with showers across most of Northern Nevada, along with a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms at KWMC, KBAM and KEKO. Strong westerly winds develop by late this Saturday morning across the entire region, with gusts of 35 to 50 knots through the afternoon and into this evening. Blowing dust is expected to develop this afternoon across much of Central and into portions of Northern NV where visibilities may be reduced to 3SM or less at times. Lighter rain showers linger across portions of Northern Nevada tonight into Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...Showers and thunderstorms persist today across mainly zones 437, 438, 469 and 470. Westerly winds of 15 to 30 mph and gusts of 35 to 50 mph are expected from late this morning through this evening across the entire region. Strongest winds are expected across zones 470, 425, 426 and 427. Dry conditions and critically low relative humidities are expected today across most of Central NV, with Red Flag Warnings in effect from 11AM through 11PM today in zones 425, 426 and 427. Much colder tonight with lows in the 30s to 40s. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms linger across Northeastern NV on Sunday, with temperatures continuing to trend cooler through the rest of the weekend. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 11 PM Saturday for NVZ425>427. Freeze Watch from this evening through Sunday morning NVZ031-039. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening NVZ033>041. && $$ DISCUSSION...96 AVIATION...96 FIRE WEATHER...96