219 FXUS66 KSEW 111557 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 857 AM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Low level onshore flow today with weak system moving by well to the north tonight. Upper level ridge building offshore tonight will move east ending up over Western Washington beginning Saturday. Thermally induced surface trough developing along the coast Saturday night with the low level flow turning offshore. Record highs likely both Sunday and Monday. Upper level ridge weakening and low level flow turning onshore Tuesday for some cooling. Increasing onshore flow Wednesday bringing temperatures down to near normal. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... No major updates for the morning AFD issuance. -HPR Satellite imagery shows patch of stratus over the northeast slopes of the Olympics otherwise clear skies over the area this morning. Temperatures at 3 am/10z were in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Pretty normal mid June day across the area today with northwesterly flow aloft and light northwesterly surface gradients. A few places already reporting 100 percent humidity so could see patchy fog form this morning. What does form will be shallow and not last long. High temperatures with plenty of sunshine in the mid 60s coast and mid 60s to mid 70s inland. Little change in the pattern tonight and Friday. Weak upper level system moving by well to the north tonight will keep the light northwesterly low level onshore flow pattern intact. Weak system will also delay the ridge building over the area into Friday afternoon. Lows tonight in the 40s and lower 50s. Highs Friday just a touch warmer with the ridge starting to build, in the mid 60s to upper 70s. Upper level ridge offshore building Friday night and Saturday with the ridge axis Saturday on a line from off the coast through Vancouver Island into the interior of British Columbia. Northwesterly onshore surface gradients continuing giving locations near the water a good seabreeze Saturday afternoon. This will knock a few degrees off the highs in locations near the water. Away from the water temperatures aloft warming with the ridge building will start the warming trend. Highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Good run to run consistency in the models. Thermally induced surface trough developing along the coast Saturday night turning the low level flow offshore. The offshore flow will continue into Monday. Temperatures aloft warming with 850 mb temperatures peaking near plus 20C Monday. Record high temperatures both days with highs in the 80s and lower 90s Sunday and 80s to mid 90s Monday. Moderate HeatRisk both days with a 30-50% chance of Major HeatRisk in the Southwest Interior and Lower Chehalis Valley. Lows will be mild, in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Forecast high for Seattle Monday is 91 degrees. 90 degree plus days are not unheard of this time of year but are rare. Only 7 percent ( 19 out of 276 ) of the 90 degree plus days at Seattle-Tacoma airport have occurred in May and the first half of June. Last year Seattle also had an early first 90 degree plus day with 90 degrees on June 8th. Upper level ridge weakening Tuesday with the low level flow turning onshore during the day. Models yesterday were trending towards a weaker marine push scenario and the current runs have gone that way with 5-10 degrees of cooling for the interior. Much cooler on the coast with highs in the 60s. Lows Tuesday morning will be the warmest of the extended period, a few degrees either side of 60. Ridge continuing to weaken Tuesday night into Wednesday with increasing low level onshore flow. Marine layer moving into the interior Tuesday night into Wednesday cooling highs back down into the lower to mid 70s. Highs on the coast mid 60s. With the arrival of the refreshing marine air lows Wednesday morning in the lower to mid 50s. Felton && .AVIATION... VFR with clear skies expected today. Remaining patchy fog in the south interior has cleared. Increasing northerly winds 5-12 kt this afternoon, with the strongest winds along the coast and Strait of Juan de Fuca. Tomorrow morning, the probability of low ceilings and or/visibilities is 40-60% along the coast, 60-80% in the mountains, and less than 10% in the interior/Puget Sound areas. The ceilings/visibilities along the coast/mountains may be as low as IFR/LIFR at times Friday morning, before clearing. KSEA...VFR conditions expected. Northeasterly winds early this morning 4-6 kt will transition to the northwest after 16z at 5-8 kt. Winds will revert back to the northeast after 06z. 29/HPR && .MARINE... Another push of westerlies is expected this evening across the Strait of Juan de Fuca. With, moderate to high confidence, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the central and eastern portions of the Strait. Broad high pressure will continue to build over the NE Pacific today. On Friday, high pressure will begin building over area waters and will remain the dominant weather feature through Monday. With high pressure situated over area waters, northerly flow will be established across area waters. High pressure will weaken on Tuesday as the broad area of high pressure retreats back into the open waters of the Pacific. Long term guidance highlights increased onshore flow on Tuesday with the potential (50-70% chance) for gales across the Strait of Juan de Fuca. 29 && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm, dry and unstable pattern developing over Western Washington Saturday with the pattern continuing through Monday. Wetting rains earlier in the week will briefly help the fine fuels from reaching critical thresholds this weekend into Monday for red flag conditions. Minimum relative humidity (RH) values will drop as low as 15 to 20 percent for portions of the South Puget Sound and Southwest interior Sunday and Monday. These dry humidity values, combined with an unstable airmass due to daytime heating and light offshore winds will lead to elevated fire weather concerns across the region. Fuels that will be most susceptible to the elevated fire weather concerns are dry/shrubby grassy areas (especially those near roads), as well as piles of dry fuels. Low level onshore flow will return Tuesday, with a gradual cool down and improvement in minimum relative humidity values. Felton/HPR && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM PDT Friday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM PDT Friday for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. && $$

287 FXUS66 KPQR 111739 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1039 AM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Updated aviation discussion. && .SYNOPSIS...An upper level ridge gradually builds over the far northeast Pacific then western WA/OR over the next several days ushering in a prolonged stretch of dry and warm/hot conditions. An Extreme Heat Watch is in effect Sunday afternoon through Tuesday evening for the greater Portland/Vancouver Metro, western Columbia Gorge, central Willamette Valley, and portions of the lower Columbia for daytime highs of 95-100 degrees and overnight lows in the mid 60s or warmer, resulting in Major HeatRisk. Heat related impacts are anticipated for much of the region. Temperatures will trend cooler for Wednesday onward with the return of onshore flow. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Friday Night...We begin an extended period of completely dry weather today with mostly sunny skies and noticeably warmer temperatures in the 70s to near 80 across the inland valleys - a 4-8 degree jump from yesterday (Wednesday). This is all thanks to a ridge of high pressure beginning to amplify over the eastern Pacific which will continue to build and push closer to the Pacific Northwest into the first half of the weekend and beyond. Friday is shaping up to largely be a repeat of Thursday, albeit 1-3 degrees warmer as 500 mb heights increase and 850 mb temperatures warm slightly. While the persistent onshore flow regime in place during this period will prevent temperatures from getting too hot, it will facilitate breezy westerly winds through the central Columbia River Gorge from Cascade Locks eastward, especially during the afternoon and evening hours when winds are expected to gust as high as 30-35 mph. -99/23 .LONG TERM...Saturday through next Wednesday...Heat impacts drive the long term forecast as it remains highlighted by a three to four day heat event with the hottest temperatures of the year thus far expected. During the second half of the weekend into early next week, the aforementioned ridge of high pressure off the coast gradually nudges overhead pinching off most of our onshore influence and allowing temperatures rise sharply Saturday and Sunday. An Extreme Heat Watch remains in effect Sunday afternoon through Tuesday evening for the greater Portland/Vancouver Metro, western Columbia Gorge, central Willamette Valley, and portions of the lower Columbia for daytime highs of 95-100 degrees and overnight lows in the mid 60s or warmer, resulting in a Major HeatRisk. Remaining inland valley locations across southwest WA and northwest OR have a Moderate HeatRisk, mainly due to relatively cooler overnight lows. The immediate coast has a Minor HeatRisk, while inland coastal communities such as Astoria and Tillamook have a Moderate HeatRisk. From the slight rise in deterministic and ensemble model temperatures seen yesterday (Wednesday), the latest 00z guidance remains largely unchanged with forecast high temperatures in the upper 90s to near 100 degrees for most locations within the Extreme Heat Watch. Confidence has also increased that Tuesday will remain rather toasty (90s), although still not nearly as hot as Monday. Model ensemble guidance is in good agreement the ridge will begin to flatten out over the region on Tuesday with slightly cooler temperatures aloft, morning low temperatures to start the day will likely be the warmest of any days during the heat event along the I-5 corridor. Given plenty of sunshine in place and a warm start to the day should the breakdown of the upper-level ridge delay any further, afternoon highs have the potential to be nearly as warm as Monday. The NBM currently shows a 20-50% chance for highs of 95 degrees or warmer on Tuesday across the Willamette Valley and Portland/Vancouver metro, and a 10-15% chance for the Cowlitz Valley, lower Columbia, Columbia River Gorge, and Upper Hood River Valley. Probabilities for a Major HeatRisk or higher on Tuesday range between 15-40% in these areas, highest in the Portland metro. Anyone who is sensitive to heat or those who have outdoor plans should prepare for and takes steps to mitigate potential heat impacts over the next couple of days before temperatures really ramp up. For those planning to seek relief by swimming in local area rivers and/or lakes to cool off, be mindful of cold water temperatures and swift currents which can become life threatening if precautions like wearing a life jacket are not taken. In addition to the heat, there will also be increasing fire weather concerns in areas with cured grasses and finer fuels. A thermally induced surface trough will establish itself somewhere west of the Cascade crest starting on Saturday helping to strengthening offshore flow for Sunday and Monday as well. This will bring breezy conditions within the western Columbia River Gorge/Cascades gaps and the Willamette Valley. As daytime highs increase, relative humidities will also decrease. Given the hot, dry, breezy conditions expected, there are increasing fire weather concerns over the weekend through the start of next week, especially Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. Be aware of potential ignition sources such as chains dragging on the pavement, hot vehicle components, as well as cigarette butts as these could easily result in the ignition of cured grasses and dry, fine fuels. Live vegetation and larger fuels may not have enough time to dry out prior to the dry and breezy conditions, but this is a variable that is being closely monitored by our State and Federal Fire Partners. Fortunately, Tuesday appears to be the last hot day of the Heat event. Come Wednesday, June 17, ensemble modeling systems do depict the ridge finally breaking down and shifting eastward bringing a return of relatively cooler westerly flow. That said, the latest ensemble model guidance has nudged temperatures several degrees higher than previous forecasts - highs now appear to rise into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the inland valleys. The slow cooling trend likely (70-80%) extends into Thursday through the end of the week as well. -99/23 && .AVIATION...VFR flying conditions beneath largely clear skies expected for most terminals throughout the period. Building high pressure offshore will see diurnal north to northwest winds rising to 5-10 kt in the afternoon and easing to 3 kt or less overnight inland. At the coast, winds are expected to be slightly stronger at 10-15 kt with gusts near 20 kt possible this afternoon and evening, most likely along the central OR coast. Chances for MVFR cigs beneath low marine clouds increase along the coast and lower Columbia River after 09-12z, with chances over 50% only at KAST. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions beneath largely clear skies throughout the period. Diurnal northwest winds rise to 6-8 kt this afternoon, then ease to 3 kt or less tonight. Low coverage of low clouds at 2-3 kft is possible early Friday morning, with very low chances of MVFR cigs. -36 && .MARINE...Expect a fairly typical summertime weather pattern to take hold the remainder of the week through the weekend as high pressure builds offshore over the eastern pacific. This will allow diurnal northerly winds will strengthen, peaking each afternoon and evening starting this afternoon but becoming more noticeable from Friday into the early to middle portion of next week at 15-20 kt with gusts near 25 kt south of Cape Foulweather, and trending weaker to the north. Due to these conditions, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the inner and outer waters south of Cape Foulweather through Friday night. Over the weekend, the areal coverage of the Small Craft may need to be expanded further north, especially over the outer waters. Seas continue to hold around 4-7 ft at 9-11 seconds with a persistent westerly swell. Models are beginning to hint at the arrival of a stronger swell towards the end of next week, although confidence of the arrival and placement of this feature are low at this time. -99 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday morning through Tuesday evening for ORZ108>115-120. WA...Extreme Heat Watch from Sunday morning through Tuesday evening for WAZ206-207-209. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ253-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

033 FXUS66 KMFR 112032 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 132 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... *Warming, drying trend to close out this week and into this weekend with temperatures jumping to well above normal levels. Even some unusual warmth reaching coastal locations (90s in Brookings Saturday? and low 80s Coos Bay/North Bend Sunday?). *Heat wave Sun-Tue with upper 90s and 100+ heat expected inland west side valleys and in the upper 80s to mid 90s over the east side. *Some cooling mid-late next week, but still above normal. *No rain chances next 7 days, though we`ll be keeping an eye out for t-storm potential at the end of the heat wave next week. && .DISCUSSION...Wall-to-wall sunshine out there this afternoon. Things have warmed up considerably compared to the last couple of days and we`ll continue that trend late this week into the weekend, culminating in a broad heat wave expected during the Sunday to Tuesday (maybe Wednesday - esp east side) time frame. A broad trough over the Rockies and Central Plains will shift east over the coming days, allowing an upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific to amplify and build into the western US through this weekend. With high pressure in control, a thermal trough will strengthen along the coast, with temperatures in and around Brookings expected to rise well into the 80s each day (it`s 80F as of this writing at KBOK) through Saturday. Models show the peak of offshore flow Friday night into Saturday morning, so it could be quite warm at the mouth of the Chetco Friday night (not much cooling) as the NE winds funnel down the river valley. With onshore flow lacking into Saturday, it could conceivably reach into the 90s, even though current models don`t explicitly show that potential. Inland, temperatures will rise by 2 to 5 degrees over the previous day each afternoon into this weekend. The upper level ridge will weaken slightly Saturday night as a trough interrupts the flow briefly, then the ridge rebuilds quickly and remains overhead through the first part of next week. This interruption will push the thermal trough inland, and this will result in very warm temperatures Sunday through Tuesday/Wednesday. Daytime highs across the area will be 20 to 25 degrees above normal for early to mid June, with widespread triple digit, or upper 90s, highs west of the Cascades, and upper 80s to low 90s to the east. Model forecast 850 temperatures (a very reliable signal for daily highs) are forecast to reach 26 to 28 degrees C, which when mixed to the surface (especially now during our longest daylight hours of the year), suggest highs could reach 105 degrees F in Medford and Grants Pass, and as high as 110 in the lower Klamath and Salmon valleys in western Siskiyou County. These will be the highest temperatures we have seen so far this year, and chances are very good that we will see record daily highs for many locations across the region. NWS HeatRisk is showing widespread moderate impacts with areas of major impacts. At this time, it appears as if nighttime temperatures will be somewhat of a mitigating factor to the heat, since most areas should be able to cool off adequately. As such, this looks like an advisory level event. We`ll be evaluating the need for heat headlines over the next couple of shifts. The ridge is expected to flatten a bit by Wednesday. This could be delayed by as much as a day, as these patterns typically are, which will let temperatures cool slightly through the rest of the week. However, temperatures are still expected to remain above normal. Of note, we also tend to see an increased risk for thunderstorms on the back side of heat waves. As the mid shift mentioned last night, model suites keep the area dry at the end of this one, but there are some hints of instability starting to appear in some runs on Wednesday or Thursday afternoon, mainly over Modoc and Siskiyou counties. The limiting factor will be atmospheric moisture, which appears lacking as of now, and a clear trigger to set off convection. So while chances are very low now, we can not rule out some lightning around the middle of next week. Confidence should improve as we get closer to the time period in question, and model better resolve the situation. -Spilde/BPN && .AVIATION...11/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with breezy to gusty north to northwest winds across the region this afternoon and evening. Winds will again be strongest along the coast with gusts of 25 to 30 kt this afternoon. Some patchy LIFR conditions could develop in the Coquille Basin again tonight, with a low chance of impacting KOTH around sunrise Friday morning. /BR-y && .MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Thursday, June 11, 2026...A thermal trough pattern will maintain gusty north winds and steep to very steep wind-driven seas across the southern Oregon coastal waters through this weekend. The worst conditions are expected south of Cape Blanco, where gales and very steep seas will persist through the weekend. Winds ease some on Sunday, but steep fresh swell is likely to persist into Monday. Gusty north winds likely strengthen again around Tuesday. /BR-y && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, June 11, 2026...A steady warming and drying trend is expected through the rest of this week, culminating in an early season heat wave this weekend into early next week. Generally, temperatures will warm by 3 to 5 degrees and humidities will trend about 3 to 5 percent drier each afternoon (minimum RHs 10-20%). Meanwhile, broad north through east flow will produce moderate to poor RH recoveries over upper slopes/ridges each night, especially over the Klamath mtns, Siskiyous, and Cascades. There could be a period of gusty offshore E-NE winds over the Siskiyou Mtns and coast ranges Friday night/Saturday morning with peak gusts in the 25-35 mph (40 mph?) range. Our typical diurnal afternoon breezes could become gusty at times, particularly Friday/Saturday. While critical conditions are not expected within the current forecast, localized conditions could get close, especially considering the low teens and single digit minimum humidities that are likely during the peak of the heat wave. The heat wave will reach a peak Sunday through Tuesday, with daytime highs about 20 to 25 degrees warmer than normal for early to mid June. Also of note, once the heats begins to ease midweek, we will need to keep an eye out for possible thunderstorms. Model guidance is not currently showing any significant convection chances, but there are some hints in the various model suites, and thunderstorms do typically accompany the breakdown of a heat wave in this area, so there is at least a very slight potential, probably focused on far northern California and the East Side. Confidence is low right now, but we will update the forecast as necessary over the coming days. -Spilde/BPN && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-370. Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376. && $$

639 FXUS66 KEKA 110813 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 113 AM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Temperatures are expected to warm to the upper 90s to around 100 in interior valley locations by Thursday and into the weekend. Breezy winds are expected along the coast during the afternoon and evening through the weekend. High temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees can be expected along the coast, warmest possibly this weekend. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures will warm quickly with moderate to major HeatRisk expected Thursday through the weekend and into early next week. - Elevated fire weather conditions in Lake County with low afternoon relative humidity and gusty winds through Thursday. - Breezy winds are expected along the coast again Thursday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION...The offshore wind component will keep skies mostly clear overnight. The drier air mass from the interior will keep temperatures warmer overnight and keep low level moisture from taking advantage of longwave radiative cooling due to the lack of cloud cover. A few clouds are possible around the Eel River Delta and other areas near the coast and in the river valleys. Thursday afternoon high temperatures in many areas are expected to be nearly 10 degrees warmer than today. Some of the warmer valleys will be approaching 100. This may be the hottest day for some of the near coastal valleys such as Gasquet, Garberville, and Boonville. At the immediate coast temperatures may reach the mid to upper 60s, but the breezy northerly winds off the water in the afternoon will likely keep them from getting much warmer. Thursday night into Friday morning temperatures are generally expected to be in the 50s in the valleys with temperatures remaining near 70 on some of the ridges. The heat advisory remains on track in southern Mendocino and Lake counties. Friday afternoon the marine layer may start to influence western portions of Mendocino county keeping temperatures slightly cooler. Saturday a weak shortwave moves down from the north and this may slow the warming or keep some areas slightly cooler. This could potentially spark off some thunderstorms, but at this point it looks like it will be too dry aloft and the threat will be well to the east of us. Monday and Tuesday the heat continues to build and more heat advisories or even a warning may be needed for this area. This currently looks like they will be the hottest days. Wednesday now looks like it might be the start of the cooling trend. MKK /EYS && .AVIATION...The coastal terminals may get a few obscurations, bringing prevailing VFR conditions down to MVFR for a few hours overnight. The persistent high pressure dome will steepen the pressure gradient near the coast, returning gusty offshore winds for the next several TAF periods and particularly during daytime hours and easing in the twilight hours. Weakening of the High pressure contours will bring a contortion of sorts, altering the northerlies by the end of the weekend, likely to be a continuation of offshore flow. VFR mostly expected for the area terminals. /EYS && .MARINE...Northerly winds are increasing to near gale and gale through the next few days. The waves will become dominated by the steep short period waves, but currently there is still an 18 second southerly wave and a northwest swell 5 feet at 10 seconds. Winds will increase again on Thursday near the coast. Friday the strongest winds are expected to start pushing farther off the coast south of Cape Mendocino. So we have extended the gale warnings, but only through Thursday night for the southern outer waters. The stronger winds are expected to linger in the northern outer waters through Friday night and possibly longer. Currently it looks like the gales will continue beyond 10 to 20 nm north of Cape Mendocino on Saturday, then start to diminish on Sunday and this allows a southerly surge to move northward. Winds are generally expected to remain lighter into early next week. MKK && .FIRE WEATHER...Temperatures are expected to continue to warm Thursday by 10 degrees or so. Along with the warming temperatures, very dry air is expected to move in and this will lower RH each day. The ridges are expected to see poor RH recoveries by Thursday morning. This will combine with some northerly winds over many of the higher ridges. The strongest winds are expected to be in the Yolla Bolla`s and down into the higher terrain of eastern and southern Lake County. The red flag warning remains on track for tonight. Fuels are likely still marginal, but winds of 15 to 30 mph and RH expected to increase only to 20 to 40 percent is concerning enough to highlight the threat with a red flag product. Thursday afternoon RH is expected to drop into the low teens in much of the interior valleys. The winds are expected to diminish by the afternoon, however they may remain strong in eastern Lake county so have extended the red flag warning into the afternoon for zone 419. MKK && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Heat Advisory from noon Thursday to 10 PM PDT Friday for CAZ113-114-118>120. Red Flag Warning until 9 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ420. Red Flag Warning until 5 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ419. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ450. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ470. Gale Warning from 9 AM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ470. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

235 FXUS66 KMTR 111949 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1249 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1241 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 - Hot and dry through Friday with a moderate risk of heat- related illnesses - Increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents along south and southwest facing beaches through the weekend - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides anticipated across coastal regions of the San Francisco Bay Area && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1241 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 (This evening through Friday) Despite the beautiful sunny skies, there is a lot going on today. We are dealing with near record temperatures this afternoon, offshore winds and elevated fire weather conditions, a southerly surge of coastal stratus moving up the Central Coast, coastal flooding along the San Francisco Bay Shore, and a sneaker wave threat from long period southerly swell. Let`s discuss each of these weather impacts individually. High temperatures are ongoing afternoon. Today marks the hottest day of the week with temperatures expected to reach 10-20 degrees above normal across the interior. That translates to highs in the 90s to near 100 degrees in the typical hotspots. This will be the hottest day of the year for many, and will challenge some daily records. The immediate coast will be spared from some of this heat thanks to a very shallow marine layer and developing SW winds. However this relief won`t make it very far inland, and it`s already 89 degrees in San Francisco. Offshore wind and elevated fire weather conditions continue across the interior mountains today. While the Red Flag warning across the interior North Bay and East Bay mountains expired at 9 AM, we are still observing near critical fire weather conditions in these areas above 1,000 ft elevation. The strong push of offshore winds is waning as high pressure over the Rockies starts to weaken. The SFO- WMC gradient bottomed out at -9.6 mb at 7 AM and has now risen to - 8.1 mb and will continue to neutralize through the next 24 hours. While today is hotter and drier than yesterday, the offshore winds are light enough to end the critical fire weather conditions. A southerly surge of coastal stratus is moving up the Central Coast. Currently reaching Big Sur, this push of clouds will impact the Monterey Bay this afternoon and continue north through the night. There may be some fog impacts on HWY-1 as a result of this feature. High tide flooding will occur nightly along the Bayshore through the middle of next week. The combination of an upcoming new moon and lunar perigee on Sunday, and about 7 inches of additional tidal anomaly from a combination of storm surge, thermal expansion of the Eastern Pacific, and about 2 inches inches of Sea Level Rise since the vertical datums were established in the 80s and 90s will add up to bring tides up to 1.8 feet above normal through the weekend. While lower than the historic tidal flooding in January (peaked at 2.6 ft) the tides this weekend could end up being the highest observed in the Summer, beating the current record of 1.7 ft from July 2022. Long period southerly swell is bringing an enhanced risk of sneaker waves. Buoys are reporting mixed seas with a combination of NW wind waves and southerly swell. The southerly swell is around 5 feet with a 16 second period. These waves may go unnoticed by ships at sea, but when long period waves reach the coast they grow much higher than standard waves and bring stronger currents. The primary hazard is sneaker waves, particularly on S and SW facing beaches. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1241 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 (Friday night through next Wednesday) Temperatures will start to come down Friday and continue to cool a couple degrees into the weekend. We will remain several degrees above normal across the interior, but the coast will shift into the typical Summertime marine layer pattern with clouds and fog in the morning and clear skies in the afternoon. A weak disturbance will move through the ridge on Sunday, allowing the marine layer to temporarily deepen a bit. Basically the atmosphere shifts back to normal, but we will still deal with the southerly swell and high tide flooding through the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Onshore winds and VFR conditions prevail through the first half of the TAF period. Winds increase to a moderate breeze by the afternoon and diminish by sunset time. Currently, a southerly surge of low- level clouds detected via satellite is making its way up along the Big Sur coastline. This surge will cause winds to become variable, mainly with a southerly component, beginning around sunset and continuing through the overnight hours. IFR ceilings will begin to impact coastal sites as early as this evening (02-03Z), affecting Monterey Bay terminals first, then KHAF, and spill through the Golden Gate. The extent of these low-level clouds will be limited and recedes to the coastline by late Friday morning. Medium confidence in the exact timing of stratus impact. Vicinity of SFO...Moderate westerly winds will prevail until the evening. As the southerly push of stratus makes its way through the Golden Gate tonight (~05-06Z), a few clouds may trickle over the airspace. High confidence that it will not impact operations and remain VFR through the TAF period. Winds will also diminish to a gentle breeze. While winds become variable at KSFO due to the local topography, KOAK will remain NW. By Friday early afternoon, winds will become westerly and moderate (10-13kts). SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Moderate onshore winds prevail through the afternoon. The much anticipated southerly surge will begin to fill in the Northern portion of Monterey Bay before circulating down into the peninsula. High confidence that IFR ceilings will begin to impact KSNS first before filling in over KMRY. Ceilings will be borderline IFR-LIFR and may fluctuate between the two, but will predominately remain IFR. These low ceilings are also expected to impact visibility until late Friday morning which is when conditions are expected to improve. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 349 AM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Gale force gusts linger in the norther outer waters while winds overall will weaken to moderate to gentle breezes through the weekend and early next week. Rough seas will steadily diminish through early next week as the winds ease. && .BEACHES... Issued at 1241 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 Long period southerly swell will continue through the weekend, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. Be sure check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .CLIMATE... Issued at 1235 AM PDT Wed Jun 10 2026 The following are the record highs for June 11th. Station Record Highs June 11th Santa Rosa 100 in 2019 San Rafael 97 in 1985 Napa 102 in 2019 Livermore 105 in 1985 San Francisco 92 in 2019, 1877 SFO Airport 98 in 2019 Redwood City 102 in 2019 Oakland Museum 99 in 2019 Half Moon Bay 85 in 2019 San Jose 99 in 2019 Monterey Airport 92 in 2019 Salinas Airport 104 in 2019 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Heat Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for CAZ006. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ006-508. Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ503-504-506- 508. Beach Hazards Statement until 9 PM PDT this evening for CAZ505- 509-529. Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ506. Heat Advisory until 7 PM PDT Friday for CAZ510-513>515. PZ...Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Flynn LONG TERM....Flynn AVIATION...Navarrete MARINE...Canepa Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

381 FXUS66 KOTX 111746 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1046 AM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers over the northern mountains on Friday and a 10-30% chance for thunderstorms over the Northeast Mountains into North Idaho. There`s also a 50-70% chance for wind gusts stronger than 30 mph on Friday. - Warming well above normal over the weekend into early next week. Minor HeatRisk into the weekend and increasing threat for moderate HeatRisk Monday into Tuesday. - Hot and dry conditions and gusty westerly winds Tuesday into Wednesday with a dry cold front passage will bring the potential for critical fire weather conditions. && .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will warm above normal through the weekend into next week. The warm up will be muted on Friday with a low pressure system clipping the northeast portion of the region. The weather system will bring breezy northerly winds down the Okanogan Valley along with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms primarily over the mountains of northeast Washington into North Idaho. Then a strong ridge of high pressure brings summer like temperatures to the region Monday into Tuesday with highs in the upper 80s and 90s. Fire weather will be a concern Tuesday into Wednesday with warm, dry conditions and gusty westerly winds with a cold front passage. && .DISCUSSION... Rest of tonight through Thursday night: Clouds over the Idaho Panhandle will dissipate overnight into Thursday morning in drier northwest flow. Weather conditions will generally remain fairly benign through the day Thursday through Thursday night with mostly clear skies and temperatures near normal. Friday through Saturday night: The longwave height pattern amplifies with a strong ridge of high pressure building over the eastern Pacific and a deep trough of lower pressure covers much of Canada. A shortwave disturbance will rotate around the upper level low in Canada and looks to brush across the Inland Northwest. The result on this weather feature will be minor impacts due to heightened fire weather concerns down the Okanogan Valley and the western Columbia Basin and isolated thunderstorms over northeast Washington into North Idaho. The potential for elevated fire weather concerns will be due to enhanced northerly winds down the Okanogan Valley that then spread out over the Waterville Plateau into the Moses Lake Area Friday afternoon. The strength of these winds will be dependent on how much precipitation occurs north of the Okanogan Valley in British Columbia. Rain cooled air from showers would enhance the northerly winds and bring more of a surge of winds down the Okanogan Valley, whereas a drier scenario on would only bring an modest enhancement of the northern gradient. The strength of the northerly gradient between Kelowna, BC and Ephrata, WA only increases up to around 3.5 mb off of the ECMWF mean. This would bring the potential for wind gusts up to around 20-25 mph, but more in the way of afternoon convection would bring this gust potential to between 30- 40 mph. There is a 30% chance for thunderstorms over North Idaho and these chances decrease to around 10% further west out to Republic. Showers and thunderstorms will be moving to the south and southeast. This may result in convection coming off of the mountains and impacting the Spokane/Coeur d`Alene corridor. Any thunderstorms that develop aren`t expected to be strong, and primarily bring infrequent lightning, brief heavy downpours, and gusty winds. Sunday through Thursday: Bigger changes come next week. The ridge of high pressure shifts east over the Northwest through the weekend. This will result in continued warming with highs on Saturday pushing into the 70s to low 80s and then widespread 80s by Sunday. The ridge axis sits over the region by Monday into Tuesday when our warmest temperatures are expected and highs by then expected to be up into the mid 80s to as warm as the mid 90s for portions of the Upper Columbia Basin and the Moses Lake Area. These warmer areas will see moderate HeatRisk and those that are sensitive to the heat may be impacted with adequate cooling/hydration available. Model ensembles are then coming into alignment with the ridge flattening out around Tuesday into Wednesday. About half of the ensemble members shows a rather aggressive push of a dry cold front. This may be our first significant critical fire weather pattern for the region particularly in the lee of the Cascades out into the Columbia Basin where grasses have sufficiently cured out enough to carry fire. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph with rapid fire spread will be possible for any new or ongoing fires. This will definitely be a period to monitor. The cold front will bring down our temperatures into the remainder of the work week, and we transition back to a dry northwest flow pattern over the region. This will bring the potential for more breezy days and temperatures back toward average for mid June. /SVH && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: Expect VFR conditions through the 24hr TAF period, with mostly clear skies SW of a K63S-KGEG-KPUW line and occasionally scattered-broken coverage NE of the line (though bases will generally remain at or above 5kft). Afternoon mixing is expected to bring gusts up to 16-20 kts at KGEG/KSFF out of the southwest today. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is high confidence in VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 73 46 77 48 77 50 / 0 0 10 20 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 71 46 74 48 75 50 / 0 0 20 30 0 0 Pullman 71 45 73 45 75 46 / 0 0 0 10 0 0 Lewiston 79 51 80 52 82 53 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 74 41 77 43 79 46 / 0 0 30 20 0 0 Sandpoint 70 45 72 47 74 48 / 0 0 40 30 0 0 Kellogg 71 45 72 47 75 48 / 0 0 20 30 0 0 Moses Lake 79 49 83 54 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 79 55 81 57 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 78 49 80 52 84 55 / 0 0 20 10 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

051 FXUS66 KPDT 112132 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 232 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry and warm trend will continue through early next week - Locally breezy north to northeast winds Saturday and Sunday - Breezy to locally windy conditions developing Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to elevated fire weather conditions && .DISCUSSION...Today through Sunday: The region will sit between an amplifying upper level ridge offshore and a broad trough centered over the northern Great Plains through the weekend. Conditions will remain dry across the forecast area through this period, while diurnally driven winds develop today and Friday. Over the weekend, ensemble guidance is in good agreement of shortwave troughing diving down the northern Rockies, which will clip the PacNW. This will shift surface winds to the north and northeast Saturday and Sunday, with locally breezy winds (10-20 mph) developing from the Columbia Basin into central OR in the afternoons. This will lead to elevated fire weather conditions across portions of the OR Columbia Basin Saturday and Sunday afternoons, though chances of Red Flag thresholds being met either day are only 20-40%. Sunday, ensemble cluster guidance is in good agreement that the upper level ridge offshore will move closer to the PacNW, which will introduce chances (40-70%) of hitting 90 degrees across portions of the Columbia Basin and eastern Gorge. Monday through Wednesday: Ensemble cluster guidance is in good agreement that the upper level ridge will slide inland Monday, limiting wind concerns but also increasing the warming trend across the lower elevations, with mod-high confidence (70-85%) of widespread max temperatures in the 90s Monday. With the ridge axis moving overhead, winds will become light, which will limit fire weather concerns to the very dry conditions in the lower elevations. By Tuesday, great agreement remains in the upper ridge breaking down as it moves further inland, bringing the peak of the warming trend in the afternoon as well as introducing breezy to locally windy conditions to the intermountain PacNW (confidence 60-70%). Medium range and ensemble guidance has backed off the potential of hitting 100 degrees on Tuesday, with the NBM showing a 10-20% chance (it was 30-50% 24 hours ago) across the lowest areas of the Columbia Basin. While chances of Major HeatRisk developing Tuesday have dropped considerably (10-20%), ensemble guidance does show an increase in Major HeatRisk chances (15-45%) Monday along the eastern Gorge, Yakima valley, and WA Columbia Basin. Wednesday, uncertainty grows in the evolution of the synoptic pattern, with about 40% of ensemble cluster members favoring a shortwave trough impacting the region (cooler and breezy conditions), while the remaining members show a quasi-zonal flow aloft (mild and breezy conditions). Lawhorn/82 && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Winds at site DLS will increase to around 15kts with gusts up to 25kts late this afternoon into the evening. Otherwise, winds will be light at all sites through the period. Lawhorn/82 && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry and warming trend through early next week. RHs will drop into the teens to low 20s through Saturday, then teens through Wednesday. Locally breezy north to northeast winds develop over the weekend, with localized elevated fire weather conditions. Breezy to locally windy conditions develop Tuesday into Wednesday as upper ridge breaks down, resulting in widespread elevated fire weather conditions across the lower elevations. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 49 80 49 84 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 53 81 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 51 85 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 51 85 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 52 84 52 87 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 48 78 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 44 82 44 83 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 44 77 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 43 82 43 83 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 55 84 56 89 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...82 FIRE WEATHER...82

105 FXUS65 KREV 110916 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 216 AM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A dry, warm pattern continues through the end of the week with typical afternoon zephyr breezes. * Temperatures warm through the weekend, with widespread Moderate HeatRisk by Friday through at least Wednesday. * Very low precipitation chances are forecast for at least the next 7 days. && .DISCUSSION... The latest RAP analysis of the upper air pattern displays the CWA continuing with a northwesterly flow aloft being between an upper trough over the Great Plains and an upper ridge over the Eastern Pacific. Model guidance shows the eastern trough progressing eastward today allowing the western ridge move more over the West Coast. This setup will allow for another day of mostly dry conditions underneath sunny skies today. Some of the CAMs though are showing low chances (<10%) for isolated showers during the afternoon in Southern Mono County. Daytime high temperatures continue to increase today with the highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s range for the W NV and NE CA valleys and in the lower to middle 80s range for the Sierra communities. Light winds are expected for most of the day with afternoon breezes gusting up to around 15-20 mph. Low temperatures tonight are forecast to be in the 40s and 50s again with a few of the W NV valleys cooling only to the lower 60s. Going into the weekend, models show the ridge continuing to build and move more over the western CONUS. At the beginning of next week, forecast guidance then projects a trough feature moving through AK and causing the aforementioned ridge to flatten a bit midweek. This pattern will allow for the virtually zero precipitation chances to continue in the region and for temperatures to rise to at least 10-15 degrees above seasonal normals over the weekend and at least Wednesday. Daily high temperatures over the weekend are currently forecast to be in the lower to middle 90s for NE CA and W NV valleys and in the lower to middle 80s for the Sierra communities. High temperatures then warm even more with the valleys ranging into the upper 90s and some of the Sierra locations entering into the upper 80s on Monday through Wednesday. With this streak of very warm temperatures, the latest NWS HeatRisk product shows widespread Minor to Moderate HeatRisk especially in the valleys on Friday through Wednesday. There is even potential for Major HeatRisk in portions of W NV around Lovelock and Fallon on Tuesday as there is a 20-50% NBM probability of hitting the triple digits for highs. For more information on HeatRisk and potential impacts for these days: visit www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heatrisk. Please keep this heat mind if you have outdoor plans through the middle of next week, especially if you are sensitive to heat. Lakes, rivers, and streams are also still running cold, so please refrain from entering into them to cool down as hypothermia could set in quickly. -078 && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are forecast today and tonight across the region. Afternoon breezes expect to gust up to around 20 kts for KMMH with lesser winds seen for the rest of the TAF sites. Dry and warmer conditions continue through the rest of the week allowing for potential density altitude impacts by the weekend as temperatures warm to 10-15 degrees above June normals. -078 && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

222 FXUS66 KSTO 111923 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1223 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... -Critical fire weather conditions in the Sacramento Valley through 5 PM PDT this evening due to gusty north winds and low humidity. -Well above normal temps in the lower elevations with widespread Moderate HeatRisk / Areas of Major HeatRisk into the weekend & triple-digit highs Thursday-Saturday. -Significant warm-up Monday-Tuesday for the northern and central Sacramento Valley, with increasing Areas of Major HeatRisk && .DISCUSSION... It`s sunny with well above normal temperatures this early afternoon, 2-5 degrees warmer than yesterday. North winds mainly peaked this morning, with gusts to 30 to 40 mph in the Sacramento Valley, strongest along and west of Interstate 5. Humidity levels barely recovered overnight, so far (around noon) have dropped into the range around 10 to 20 percent, likely drying further by late afternoon down into the single digits in some locations. The winds have combined with the low humidity to bring extended periods of critical fire weather conditions for the Northern Sacramento Valley and into the foothills of the northern Coast Range, with a Red Flag Warning remaining in effect through 5 PM this evening. Winds will remain breezy through the afternoon but should continue to decrease, becoming much lighter by evening. Even after the Red Flag event is over, expect low humidity levels and periods of breezy onshore winds into next week, bringing elevated fire weather conditions into early next week. Onshore flow, increasing humidity and cooling temperatures are expected mid to late week, lessening fire weather concerns. Triple digit Valley highs are expected this afternoon and continue through at least the early weekend in many locations. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is expected starting this afternoon, with areas of Major HeatRisk on Friday, and less so on Saturday across mainly the foothills. Delta breeze influenced locations will see some cooling through the weekend, while the northern Sacramento Valley, mountains, and foothills are forecast to see just slightly lower highs. The Heat Advisory continues for the northern and central Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills through 11pm Saturday, June 13. While other areas in the Valley will benefit from the Delta breeze cooling influence, especially in the evening, it remains important for everyone in interior NorCal to practice heat safety! Stay cool and hydrated, and consider checking in on those more sensitive to heat. Early next week high temperatures have trended higher for the northern and central Sacramento Valley, and could see even higher temperatures than for late this week. Major HeatRisk areas have also been trending larger there. Temperatures are forecast to trend lower mid to late week. Mainly dry weather is expected into next week, but can`t completely rule out a few stray showers or an isolated thunderstorm over the Sierra crest south of US HWY 50 over the weekend into Monday. Weak troughing and instability should at least produce some afternoon cumulus buildups in that area. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions with clear skies over the next 24 hours. North winds linger through the northern/central Sacramento Valley today with sustained winds 10 to 20 kts and gusts 20 to 30 kts until around 00z Friday. After 00z, winds shift to the west-northwest across the southern Sacramento Valley and northern San Joaquin with gusts up to 15 to 20 kts until 09z Friday and will linger after 12z for the Delta. North winds 5 to 10 kts remain over the northern Sacramento Valley into 18z Friday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for Butte County Below 1000 ft-Central Colusa County Incl. I-5-Central Glenn Co & Interstate 5-Eastern Colusa County-Eastern Glenn County-N. Sac Valley in Tehama County-Shasta Metro-Sierra (Tehama-Plumas) 1000- 3000 ft-Sutter/Yuba counties below 1000 ft-W Tehama Co Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Glenn/Colusa Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Shasta County 1000-3000 ft. Red Flag Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Butte County Below 1000 ft-C. Yolo/NE Solano including Woodland-Central Colusa County Incl. I-5-Central Glenn Co & Interstate 5-Eastern Colusa County-Eastern Glenn County-N. Sac Valley in Tehama County-Shasta Metro-Sutter/Yuba counties below 1000 ft-W. Glenn/Colusa Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Yolo County including Capay/I-505-Yolo / Solano County Hills. && $$

522 FXUS65 KMSO 111822 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1222 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - A cold front moving north to south across the region tomorrow will cause some thunderstorms and gusty winds. - A ridge building over the Pacific NW this weekend and early next week will cause a warming trend with temperatures in the upper 70s mid 80s in western Montana and mid 90s in central Idaho next week. A trough and surface cold front dropping out of Canada tomorrow will cause some thunderstorms and gusty winds. Current forecasts are for moderate thunderstorms with gusty winds around 40 mph, small hail, and heavy rain. Overall, we expect scattered thunderstorms of average intensity for western Montana. Thunderstorm chances are confined along I-90 and northward, so Idaho will be missing out on these storms. The ridge over the northeast Pacific Ocean will move inland and set up over western Washington and Oregon this weekend and into early next week. That will leave the northern Rockies under northwest flow. This is typically a showery pattern, but without much moisture to work with they are generally light showers and mostly confined to the mountains. With the ridge building in just west of our region, it will allow temperatures to finally warm up with some 90s expected in the low elevations of central Idaho like Orofino and Riggins by Tuesday. Western Montana will warm into the mid 80s. With the ridge axis to our west, this is a good pattern for occasional short waves to drop out of the northwest and cause showers and a cool down. Current forecasts don`t show this happening yet, but it`s the kind of subtle pattern that the models frequently miss at long lead times. In any case, it would be a low impact scenario if it does happen. Also, there is very poor agreement among the ensembles as to when the ridge breaks down, though many members start to show some sort of cool down by late next week. && .AVIATION...A ridge building over the U.S. West Coast will keep conditions mild today. A shortwave moving down the eastern edge of that trough will drag a cold front across the region tomorrow. Expect thunderstorms during the afternoon tomorrow with gusts up to 40 mph. Once the front moves through in the evening, it will shut off convection pretty quickly as more stable conditions develop. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

169 FXUS65 KBOI 112032 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 232 PM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Clear, warmer, and drier through the forecast. - Breezy conditions tomorrow through Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... Pacific high pressure builds as a Great Lakes trough remains in place. These two synoptic features keep us in a tight pressure gradient as high pressure builds in. This means windy afternoons, especially Friday and Saturday, and a steadily warming and drying trend with clear skies. Friday will be 5 degrees warmer than today, and Saturday is forecast to be about the same as Friday. A short wave embedded in the flow brings increased winds Friday lingering into Saturday. Wind gusts of 25-35 mph can be expected in open areas, highlands, and ridgetops remaining elevated overnight into Saturday where they come down to 20-30 mph. Winds weaken heading into the long term as the warming and drying continues. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Heat will continue to build across the region as an upper ridge moves in from the coast early next week. The area remains dry during this time as northwest flow aloft keeps monsoon moisture locked up over the Four Corners area. High temperatures will reach 10-15 degrees above normal by Tuesday, staying in that range through Thursday. Lower elevations will see highs in the low-mid 90s starting on Monday. Tuesday is forecast to be the hottest day, with Wednesday only a degree or two lower. For typically hotter sites in the Snake Plain the probability of 100 or greater is 10% or less Tue/Wed, while the chance of reaching 95 has bumped up to 50-80%. Models continue to show a trough approaching the Pac NW late next week. && .AVIATION /18Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 1200 PM MDT THU JUN 11 2026 VFR. Clear skies outside of a sparse cumulus field over higher terrain this afternoon. Surface winds: Variable direction with speeds up to 12 kt through Friday morning. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: Westerly 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR with surface winds less than 10 kt. Weekend Outlook...VFR under clear skies. A few afternoon mountain cumulus are possible. Breezy NW surface winds Friday afternoon through Saturday with gusts of 20-35 kt. Lighter winds on Sunday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....DG AVIATION.....DG

044 FXUS65 KLKN 111923 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1223 PM PDT Thu Jun 11 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Fair weather and warmer temperatures are expected through this weekend. * Very warm temperatures possible early next week && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Clear skies and dry conditions are expected through the forecast period due to a combination of zonal flow transitioning to upper level ridging. Daytime temperatures will be in the mid 80s through the weekend, after which the ridge takes over and temperatures are expected to climb to the mid 90s for the first half of next week. Overnight lows tonight will be in the 40s, with a few of the usual cold spots in Elko county dropping into the 30s. Low temperatures will also be impacted by the ridge, with overnight temperatures rising into the upper 40s by Friday night and into the 50s by Monday night. Typical afternoon breezes will be present through Monday, with slightly stronger winds shaping up for Elko county on Tuesday and Wednesday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence for dry and warming conditions through the end of the forecast. No changes were made to base NBM output. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions and light winds expected through the next 24 hours. && .FIRE WEATHER...Quiet weather through the forecast period will prevent fire concerns from thunder or wind. Elevated temperatures and dry conditions will be the biggest fire weather factor during this time, with temperatures reaching the mid 90s for the first half of next week with widespread min RH values as low as 5% during that period. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...94 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...94