093 FXUS66 KSEW 160323 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 823 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Increasing onshore flow will promote cooler and more moist conditions across the area Tuesday and Wednesday. Upper level ridge rebuilding Thursday with weak low level onshore flow will allow temps to start to warm again. Little change in the pattern Friday through the weekend though with greater uncertainty. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Cooler, marine air is pushing inland across Western Washington this evening. High temperatures across much of the interior will be 10 to 20 degrees cooler on Tuesday. This is all covered well in current forecasts. No changes are planned this evening. Previous discussion follows. 27 Very warm conditions continue across much of western Washington this afternoon, despite the development of high clouds across the area. Farther north, however, thicker coverage of high clouds as well as developing onshore flow has helped keep their temperatures relatively cooler, with temps in the 60s and 70s, compared to upper 80s and low 90s from metro Seattle and southward. Areas along the coast will peak in the 70s and low 80s with developing onshore flow already this afternoon. Pressure rises along the coast show that the thermal trough has shifted inland and will work its way east of the Cascades tonight. Onshore flow will continue to strengthen tonight, which will allow low temperatures to cool slightly compared to yesterday. Lows will range from the mid 50s to around 60 in the urban metro. The heat advisory will therefore expire tomorrow morning at 5 AM. Stronger onshore flow will continue through much of the day on Tuesday. This will allow for temperatures to moderate up to 15-20 degrees compared to today, with highs in the 60s along the coast under marine stratus, and low to mid 70s across the interior. It will be noticeably breezy across much of the area, with the strongest winds expected through the Chehalis gap and the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Gusts 25-35 mph will be possible in these areas, up to 15-25 mph elsewhere. Expect a convergence zone to develop over the Puget Sound lowlands, but no precipitation is expected out of this. As winds decrease Tuesday night, this will allow for even cooler lows, down to the upper 40s to mid 50s. Similar conditions on Wednesday; more stratus for the coast and west of Puget Sound but will burn off throughout the day. Highs in the upper 60s on the coast, with most of the interior in the 70s to near 80 in the Southwest Interior. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Zonal flow will become more northwesterly as an upper level ridge begins to build offshore. This will allow for temperatures to start another brief warming trend Thursday and peaking on Friday. Highs look to top out in the upper 70s to upper 80s, with the warmest temperatures across the Southwest Interior. This will correlate to a Moderate level of HeatRisk on Friday for areas around the Seattle metro. The range in uncertainty increases Saturday into early next week in terms of temperatures as the pattern gets more convoluted. The ridge remains onshore, with several shortwaves potentially moving through across the Pacific Northwest and a broad low moving into California. Then, a trough moves across from the north this weekend from B.C. into northeast Washington. Solutions without some of the shortwaves keep us warmer with weaker onshore flow; those with waves allow for stronger pushes and more moderate temperatures. The wave moving in from B.C. may allow for more unstable conditions to develop over the Cascades with very slight (15%) chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. The National Blend is trending towards warmer solutions with highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. 62 && .AVIATION... West to northwest flow aloft will continue into Tuesday as an upper ridge over the region weakens in response to a weak upper trough moving onshore across British Columbia. Increasing low level onshore flow will likely bring MVFR ceilings to the coastal areas late tonight with VFR continuing across much of the interior. Gusty westerly surface winds can be expected near the coast as well as in and adjacent to the Strait of Juan de Fuca. KSEA...VFR with variable amounts of high level moisture. Surface winds northerly will back to southwesterly late this evening and rise to 8 to 12 knots toward mid-morning Tuesday. && .MARINE... Onshore flow has resumed over the coastal waters as the thermal trough has progressed inland. Northwesterly winds will increase late tonight into Tuesday over the coastal waters, reaching Small Craft Advisory conditions by mid-day Tuesday. These windy conditions will persist through the rest of the week. Seas will become locally-wind driven and become very steep. Wave heights will increase throughout the day Tuesday up to 10 to 13 ft with a dominant period of around 10 seconds. Waves in the outermost waters may reach up to 15 ft by late week. Winds are beginning to strengthen through the Strait of Juan de Fuca at present and will continue to do so tonight, up to gale force for much of the day on Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory winds will also funnel down into Admiralty Inlet by Tuesday afternoon. Winds look to ease Tuesday night. 62 && .FIRE WEATHER... Strengthening onshore flow tonight into tomorrow will help to bring more moisture and cooler temperatures, easing fire weather concerns. Conditions dry out a bit again Thursday and Friday with minimum relative humidity values dropping into the 25-35% range despite no low level offshore flow. Temperatures will rise back into the upper 70s to low 80s in the lowlands. Breezy northerlies in the lowlands as well as westerly flow through the Cascades may pose elevated fire weather risks Thursday and Friday. Fuels will continue to slowly dry with no precipitation forecast through the weekend. 62 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for City of Seattle- Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County- Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County- Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades- Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula- Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Middle Chehalis River Valley- Northern Hood Canal-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound- Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Admiralty Inlet. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

065 FXUS66 KPQR 160454 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 954 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 ...Updated aviation discussion and watches, warnings, and advisories section... .SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures remain the main story today with Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories in effect through very late tonight. Conditions cool tomorrow as onshore flow returns, though inland areas will remain warmer than normal through the upcoming week. && .DISCUSSION...Tonight through Sunday...Temperatures will remain elevated through the evening hours, with a gradual cool down expected tonight. So, while we are on the backside of this heat wave, remember to stay hydrated, limit strenuous afternoon activity, use air- conditioned spaces when possible, and check on vulnerable neighbors, family, and pets. Also remember rivers and lakes remain cold despite the hot weather, increasing the risk of cold-water shock for anyone seeking relief near the water. As tonight/Tuesday morning approaches, a significant pattern change is expected as a shortwave trough sliding southward from western Canada, this will help to usher the upper level high pressure and associated thermally induced surface trough further eastward over the Cascades and into Central OR and WA. This pattern change will bring a return of onshore flow to the region and provide a brief respite from the extreme heat. However, daytime highs will still remain above normal (low 60s to mid 70s) for this time of year. Expect daytime highs along the coast in the mid to upper 60s, low to upper 80s inland and low 70s to low 80s for the Cascades on Tuesday and Wednesday. Probabilities for temperatures reaching 90 degrees Tuesday are now less than 15% and nearly zero for Wednesday. Looking towards the latter part of the week, ensemble guidance remains in very good agreement that a weak, upper level transient high pressure system builds along the central coast of western CONUS. At the same time, very broad upper level troughing develops across western and central Canada. This synoptic formation looks to bring slightly warmer temperatures back into the forecast for the PacNW. Daytime highs on Thursday and Friday look to be in the mid 80s to low 90s for inland locations on Thursday and Friday. This while system looks to move eastward Friday into Saturday, with the Canadian trough developing a cut- off low that will overtake the eastern Pacific high, resulting in cooler temperatures for the weekend. Overall, there are no significant cool down or precipitation signals in the extended forecast at this time. /42-03 && .AVIATION...High pressure will maintain predominately VFR conditions through the TAF period with FEW/SCT high clouds across inland locations. Northwesterly winds weaken to around 5 kt or less overnight. After 12z Tue, there is high confidence (>90% chance) for marine stratus pushing onshore into the north Oregon coast, bringing MVFR CIGs at KAST. Limited mixing will maintain MVFR CIGs throughout the day along the north Oregon coast. There is some uncertainty whether or not marine stratus makes it down to the central Oregon coast, but there is a 40-60% chance for MVFR CIGs at KONP at any given hour between 12-21z Tue. Guidance suggests mixing occurs at KONP after 00-02z Wed, returning VFR conditions. Northwesterly winds gradually increase after 15-18z Tue as pressure gradients tighten with gusts up to 25 kt along the coast and up to 20 kt inland in the afternoon. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with FEW/SCT high clouds through the TAF period. Light northwesterly winds overnight will gradually increase after 18z Tue with gusts up to 20 kt from 21z Tue-06z Wed. -10 && .MARINE...High pressure offshore will maintain the summertime pattern through this week. Diurnally driven northerlies are expected to peak each afternoon and evening through next week. North winds will continue to increase this afternoon with gusts up to 25 kts south of Cape Falcon, then ease overnight into Tuesday morning. Winds then increase across all of the coastal waters later Tuesday afternoon and evening, with this pattern persisting through late in the week. Seas around 4 to 7 ft at 7-10 seconds are expected to persist through Tuesday, driven primarily by the northerly wind chop. Seas are expected to build to around 8 to 10 ft Wednesday into Friday as a fresh northwesterly swell builds across the waters. /DH && .CLIMATE...Record high temperatures and warm low temperatures for Monday, June 15 High Temperatures: Warm Low Temperatures: Portland Int`l 95F (1966) 60F (1969) Vancouver, WA 95F (1930, 1966) 62F (1961) Hillsboro 99F (1961) 60F (1963) McMinnville 96F (1961) 59F (1936) Salem100F (1966) 59F (1931) Eugene 96F (1966) 60F (1961) Astoria 91F (1966) 58F (1997) && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ251-252-271-272. Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ252-272. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ253-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

167 FXUS66 KMFR 152311 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 411 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 ...Updated AVIATION discussion for 00Z TAFs... .DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)... Key Points: * Minor to Moderate impacts continue through the forecast * Moderate impacts from heatwave through tomorrow - Temperatures upwards of 20-25 degrees above normal - Many westside valleys with highs around 100 degrees - Temperatures cool later in the week but remain above normal * Elevated fire weather conditions through Wednesday - Fuels are the main driver limiting the critical threat - Fuels likely become more receptive Thursday onward * Increasing signal for thunderstorms Friday/Saturday - Mainly northern California and eastside areas - Friday has the greater chance with severe weather potential Further Details: We continue to see an area of high pressure at 500mb over the Pacific located roughly at 130W and 40N, resulting in a dry northwesterly flow over the forecast area through tomorrow. By Wednesday, the high starts to break down and move east, and by Thursday we will see a trough emerge over the Pacific at the same time the high moves east/southeast over the Desert Southwest. In the meantime, the area of high pressure will keep highs well above normal for this time of year, and has resulted in a Heat Advisory for much of the area through tomorrow. The eastside gets into the Heat Advisory mix starting tomorrow. That said, high temperatures will remain above normal through the forecast period with only a relatively "slight" cool down Friday and through the weekend. The open wave trough off the California coast will produce south to southwesterly flow in the upper levels over the forecast area starting as early as Thursday. This will combine with the return of moisture, and instability is expected to increase Thursday through Saturday. While we see instability increase on Thursday, the upper level dynamics may lack energy aloft to get thunderstorms going. That said, there is a chance we could see very isolated thunderstorms on Thursday with convective temperatures being reached before the trough supports better dynamics on Friday. MUCAPE values could be around 500 J/kg to upwards near 1000 J/kg on Friday. Overall, Friday has the best potential for thunderstorms (possible severe) as bulk shear values reach 20 to upwards near 30 knots (slight decrease in shear from yesterday). The CAPE/shear combination may allow for a few updrafts to maintain which could produce strong erratic gusts/downburst around 45-60mph (inverted-v sounding profiles) and hail around 0.50"-0.75". This would be in addition to the threat of lightning. On Saturday, we do see lingering instability, but the trough axis may be east of the forecast area. Can`t completely rule out thunderstorms for Saturday, but the trend is for thunderstorms chances to be better east of the forecast area given the trough axis location. -Guerrero && .AVIATION...16/00Z TAFs...ASide from some high clouds moving southward across Oregon towards northern California, little change is expected to VFR flight levels in this TAF period. Gusty winds at the coast north of Cape Blanco ease into the evening then are expected to return on Tuesday afternoon. Other areas will see normal diurnal breezes. -TAD && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday, June 15, 2026...A dry cold front will push through the waters on Tuesday as some strong northerlies develop over the waters Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. Gales are likely in the outer waters south of Gold Beach with some of those gales coming within 5 nm of shore. Otherwise, conditions will be hazardous to smaller crafts for all other areas as seas become steep through Thursday. The strong northerlies will weaken around the weekend as a disturbance moves through the Pacific Northwest. -Smith && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday, June 15, 2026...Elevated fire weather conditions will develop this afternoon west of the Cascades. There are some areas suggesting red flag criteria around the Rogue Valley and Illinois Valley due to the dry airmass and afternoon breezes. Hot and dry conditions will persist into Tuesday before a dry cold front moves through southern Oregon Tuesday evening. One should see overnight recoveries move notably higher, although temperatures will only drop 5 degrees from Monday night into Tuesday night. Even with this dry "cold" front, temperatures will remain quite warm with highs in the mid to upper 90`s west of the Cascades through Wednesday and even Thursday. An upper level low will develop in the Pacific by Thursday and ensembles are suggesting a low chance of thunderstorms around the Oregon/California border on Thursday afternoon. As the upper level low moves closer to the coast on Friday, the chance of showers and thunderstorms increases mainly east of the Cascades. Almost all the ECMWF members were showing showers and thunderstorms in our CWA Friday afternoon. 0-6km shear shows southerly storm motion at 20 knots with precipitable water values around 0.9 inches. Therefore, the threat of dry thunderstorms seems valid with some inverted V forecast soundings. -Smith && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ021-023>026-029. CA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ080>085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ350-356-370-376. Gale Warning from 5 PM Tuesday to 2 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356- 376. && $$

428 FXUS66 KEKA 160746 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1246 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Moderate to major HeatRisk will continue across the interior through Tuesday, though coastal areas will still see marine influence and cooling. The heat wave will break down beginning Wednesday. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures begin to slightly ease but remain above average Tuesday. - Cooling trend beginning to build in Wednesday. - Slight (15%) thunderstorm chances over the eastern interior Thursday and Friday afternoons. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure ridging continues to dominate across the area with the strongest focus persisting over Humboldt and Trinity Counties today with valley high temperatures again around 100. High temperatures will continue to be above average, though not record breaking. High temperatures rebound again today for the southern half of the area thanks to weakened south wind. Ukiah returned to near 100 Monday afternoon. Conditions will ease by just a couple degrees Tuesday, but these temperatures still constitute a generally moderate HeatRisk with some areas of major risk for the warmest valleys. Heat has made for a robust but very shallow marine layer that has blanketed the immediate coast, though clearing Monday was slight better than Sunday. High pressure will begin to weaken more by Wednesday with interior highs pulling back into the mid 80s. Most deterministic models show weak trough pushing onshore around Thursday. This trough will definitely cool conditions and help deepen marine influence along shore, creating a more persistent and further reaching marine layer. Compared to previous runs, more high resolution models show a weak moisture plume moving up the Sacramento valley. Interacting with the trough, this could (20% chance) produce elevated, mostly dry thunderstorms in eastern Mendocino and Trinity Counties on Thursday and Friday afternoons. /JHW && .AVIATION...Though brief, the coastal stratus showed the first signs of weakness Monday with periods of scattering. Southerly return flow over the coastal waters continues to replenish stratus mass from the unlimited supply being generated over the Pacific. LIFR conditions and areas of fog remained over the coastal terminals Monday night. High pressure overhead strengthens overnight, and the marine layer will further compress to very shallow levels through Tuesday morning. High pressure then weakens Tuesday, and the northerly winds increase. This will finally allow for turbulent mixing to scour out the stratus throughout day north of Cape Mendocino, though a quick return is expected going into Tuesday evening. Weaker northerly winds south of the cape will create and southerly eddy which will keep the stratus over or along the Mendocino coast Tuesday. && .MARINE...Northerly winds have entered a strengthening trend. Near gale to gale conditions will develop over portions of the waters Tuesday, mainly over the outers Tuesday. The northerly winds will strengthen through Wednesday. Though winds will be lighter, short period and occasionally large seas around 9 to 11 feet will enter the inner waters around and north of Cape Mendocino Tuesday through Thursday morning. Thereafter, seas trend lower after the stronger northerlies likely pull farther offshore. && .FIRE WEATHER...An ongoing heat wave has helped rapidly dry fuels. Interior high temperatures have been reaching near 100 with RH generally between 15 and 25 percent. Overnight RH recovery has also been poor with thermal belts with mid and upper elevation nighttime RH only around 50 percent. ERC has rapidly increased across the board with most RAWS already reaching near the 90th percentile, even close to shore. That said, the general lack of wind will continue to suppress the risk of any fast moving fires. Hot and dry conditions will weaken beginning Wednesday. The pattern late week is coming more into focus. Some longer range high resolution models show a more well formed though weak moisture plume moving up the Sacramento Valley late week. Combined with the the passing upper level trough, such a setup is likely to create Thunderstorms over high terrain Thursday and Friday afternoons and evenings. The greatest potential will be in NE Trinity County (20% chance) with lower chances (10%) around the Yolla Bollys. Any storms that form will be mostly dry. Given the preceding heat wave, any lightning is likely to be efficient with possible new fire starts. && .COASTAL FLOODING...Another high astronomical tide is predicted just at 1:15 am, Wednesday, June 17 for Northwest California. High tides have been reaching 9.1 to 9.3 ft. Tides will trend lower starting Wednesday. High tides will cause minor coastal flooding round Humboldt Bay, including King Salmon and low- lying roads near Arcata Bottoms. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ102-105-108- 111-114-116-117. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ103. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ103. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ415. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ415. Small Craft Advisory from noon Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ470. Gale Warning from 8 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Tuesday to 9 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

428 FXUS66 KMTR 160849 CCA AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service San Francisco CA 149 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 - Minor coastal flooding due to higher than normal high tides anticipated across low-lying coastal areas. - Hazardous beach conditions through Wednesday with increased risk of sneaker waves and strong rip currents. - Minor to locally Moderate HeatRisk through the middle of the week with seasonable June temperatures. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 (Today through Wednesday) High pressure will remain in place across the area today, bringing similar conditions to Monday. A marine layer 1000-1500 feet deep and onshore winds will keep temperatures near the coast slightly below normal, with highs mainly in the 60s to low 70s. Extensive cloud cover within the marine layer this morning will retreat to the coast this afternoon, giving way to mostly sunny skies. Inland, including interior portions of the South Bay, East Bay, North Bay, and interior Monterey and San Benito counties, it will remain hot with highs in the 80s and 90s. Many locations will see Minor HeatRisk, but some areas will experience Moderate HeatRisk, corresponding to a moderate risk for heat- related illnesses amongst sensitive populations, including children, the elderly, pregnant women, people with chronic illnesses, and people who work or live outdoors without access to adequate cooling or hydration. We continue to emphasize practicing smart heat safety by limiting time outdoors, taking frequent breaks in the shade, and staying hydrated. Expect moderate onshore winds this afternoon with gusts 10-20 mph, except slightly stronger possible in open areas. The ridge will start to weaken on Wednesday beginning a cooling trend, mainly inland where high temperatures will cool by up to 2-5 degrees. The pattern near the coast will remain similar, with marine stratus in the morning decreasing in the afternoon and onshore winds keeping temperatures similar to today. Tidal flooding continues across low-lying coastal and Bayshore areas through Thursday morning as high astronomical tides combine with surge effects from wind, swell, and thermal expansion to bring us the highest tides of the summer season. High tides are expected to be 1.7 ft above normal (7.5 ft MLLW) at 12:56 AM on Wednesday, and 1.2 ft above normal (7.1 ft MLLW) at 1:51 AM on Thursday. In addition, the long-period southerly swell is continuing to increase the risk for sneaker waves and strong rip currents, with a Beach Hazards Statement out through Thursday morning. See the BEACHES section for more information, but the main takeaway is to never turn your back to the ocean! && .LONG TERM... Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday) The ridge will weaken further on Thursday as a weak upper level trough off the coast approaches the area. This trough will move across the area Friday and Saturday. However, any showers and thunderstorms associated with this system are expected to remain over the higher terrain north and east of the forecast area, keeping our area dry. Forecast soundings indicate the low pressure system deepening the marine layer with continued onshore winds (breezy each afternoon). This combination will continue the inland cooling trend, with highs Friday and Saturday only reaching the 70s to low 80s at the warmest locations, or about 5 to 15 degrees below normal. Drizzle may also develop over the coastal waters and along the coast. Weak troughing may continue into Sunday, but by Monday, ensembles generally agree that a ridge will rebuild across the West, with temperatures especially inland trending warmer once again. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 MVFR-IFR stratus is expanding again and will impact most terminals through the night, with a low to moderate confidence of stratus impacts at LVK. The breezy to gusty onshore pattern winds will continue to diminish and remain light through Tuesday morning. As the stratus retreats to the immediate coast, winds will pick up again with a gentle to moderate onshore breeze across the region. Low to moderate confidence that HAF sees some brief scattering Tuesday afternoon. Some stratus expansion inland is expected towards Tuesday evening, although greater confidence is expected after the end of the 24-hour TAF period. Vicinity of SFO... VFR with a fresh to strong northwest breeze through the evening hours. IFR stratus will move in through the evening into the overnight hours. There is moderate confidence on stratus timing as models differ on how that stratus will expand over the terminal, with most models expecting stratus to wrap around the East and South Bay and potentially setting up through the Golden Gate just to the north of the terminal before filling in over SFO. May need to monitor observations through the night. Any stratus that forms will dissipate through Tuesday morning as breezy west- northwest winds resume in the afternoon with gusts to 15 kt. SFO Bridge Approach... Similar to SFO. Vicinity of OAK and SJC... IFR stratus at OAK at present and will move southwards towards SJC, impacting the terminal within the next couple of hours. Stratus will dissipate Tuesday morning as breezy northwest winds develop in the afternoon and evening hours. Stratus will likely return to OAK sometime Tuesday evening, but stay away from SJC through Wednesday early morning, beyond the end of the 24-hour TAF period. Monterey Bay Terminals... IFR stratus continues through late Tuesday morning with breezy onshore winds becoming light overnight. A gentle to moderate northwest breeze will develop at the terminals Tuesday afternoon with gusty winds possible at SNS. Stratus will return to the terminals Tuesday evening. Moderate confidence in timing at SNS as the last couple of nights have seen fingers of stratus impacting the terminal around 23-01Z. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Sunday) Issued at 1000 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 Light northwest winds continue through the night with a low south- southwesterly swell across most of the coastal waters. Winds will shift back to southerly tomorrow afternoon for the northern inner waters and the southern waters. Fresh to strong north winds will develop in the northern outer waters tomorrow and Wednesday, bringing rough seas to the region. Otherwise, seas remain slight to moderate into the weekend. && .BEACHES... Issued at 115 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 Long period southerly swell at around 15 to 17 seconds will persist through the next couple days as energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through 5 AM Thursday morning. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through late Wednesday night for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ006-506- 508. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ505-509- 529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Tuesday to 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tangen LONG TERM....Tangen AVIATION...DialH MARINE...DialH Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

862 FXUS66 KOTX 160017 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 517 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday due to warm, dry, and windy conditions. - Moderate to locally major HeatRisk through Monday evening && .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will remain above normal through the weekend into next week, with the highest temperatures expected on Monday. Fire weather will be a concern Tuesday with warm, dry conditions and gusty westerly winds with a cold front passage. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Wednesday: Models are in good agreement that an upper level trough will swing into British Columbia in Tuesday, sending a strong dry cold front across Central and Eastern Washington into the Idaho Panhandle. A mid level dry- slot will result in drier air mixing down, which combined with a tight pressure gradient and cold advection will bring critical fire weather conditions where fuels have cured and reached critical levels across Central and Eastern Washington. Sustained winds increasing to 20-30 MPH with gusts of 35-45 MPH, locally to 50 MPH, combined with relative humidity down to 12-23% will lead to rapid fire spread with any new or existing fires. The strongest winds are expected in the Wenatchee area and Waterville Plateau, which are under a wind advisory as well. These winds have the potential to kick up areas of blowing dust across the Columbia Basin. Exact locations of dust, and degree of visibility restrictions carries lower confidence. Lastly, several fires burning south of Yakima and around the Tri-Cities has the potential to bring some smoke towards the palouse at times. Following the frontal passage, it will remain gusty Tuesday evening before winds decrease overnight into Wednesday although it will still remain breezy into Wednesday. Thursday through Monday: A dry northwest flow remains over the area Thursday, before another trough slides into British Columbia Friday into Saturday. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles suggest another dry cold front passage bringing another round of fire weather concerns, while the Canadian ensembles are much weaker. NBM currently shows a slight cooling trend and breezy winds, although if the stronger GFS/ECMWF solutions pan out could be a windier period and something we will continue to keep a close eye on. Following this trough, another dry northwest flow pattern returns. Temperatures through the week into early next week will remain above normal (although not as warm as today). No precipitation is forecast for the next 7 days, except for a 15 percent chance of showers over the northern mountains into the ID Panhandle next weekend with the mainly dry trough passage. JW && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: Gusty northwest winds will continue across most of the region into this evening with gusts up to 25 kts. Gusts relax later in the evening after 04Z. A strong cold front sweeps through Tuesday with strong westerly winds that will bring the potential for smoke impacts from new or ongoing fires, and the potential for blowing dust over the Columbia Basin. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions through Tuesday morning. Low confidence in smoke or blowing dust impacting TAF sites. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 62 86 54 82 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 60 84 52 80 52 82 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Pullman 57 84 50 77 48 82 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 61 92 57 84 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 56 86 50 81 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 56 84 51 78 49 81 / 0 10 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 58 83 51 76 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 62 88 52 86 52 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 68 83 58 84 57 88 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 64 87 53 84 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse - Spokane Area (Zone 708)-Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Methow Valley (Zone 704)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)- Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for Moses Lake Area- Wenatchee Area. Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area. ID...None. && $$

762 FXUS66 KPDT 160531 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1031 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Moderate to Major HeatRisk This Afternoon and Evening - Windy Tuesday - Critical Fire Weather conditions Tuesday Afternoon and Evening && .DISCUSSION... Mid level ridging is beginning to break down into what will be a more zonal pattern heading into the overnight and Tuesday, transitioning to NW flow by Wednesday morning across the Interior NW. That will allow an increase in the gap winds staring Tonight and result in breezy to windy conditions over the entire forecast area on Tuesday. Based on probabilities for wind gusts in excess of 40 mph, the Kittitas valley has about a 90% chance for exceedance of 40 mph lending to high confidence to high end advisory criteria, and perhaps pushing the limits of high wind criteria (40 mph sustained winds and/or 58 mph gusts). We will hedge on a wind advisory over high wind here as the NBM members area at around 34% for late afternoon sustained winds at 34 kts (39 mph) peaking in the late afternoon. Heat risk is at its highest This Afternoon and will wane after Today as the thermal trough breaks eastward and the temperatures are unable to warm up as much on Tuesday due to mixing of the boundary layer. Still elevated or Level 2 HeatRisk will create conditions that affect those more at risk to heat illnesses and do not have access to cooling or hydration. A couple of cooler days on Wednesday and Thursday dipping into a widespread level 1 HeatRisk will be followed by warming temps again Friday, however not as intense as Today. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. The big highlight will be the wind this period, with gusts peaking at 25-35 knots in the late morning hours Tuesday, prevailing through the afternoon and evening in some areas. Central Oregon sites + ALW will see a decrease in the winds sooner by 02-04Z, while the other sites remain breezy through at least the end of the TAF period. No CIG or VIS issues expected, with the slight possibility of HZ passing through some of the Columbia Basin areas due to nearby wildfires (5 to 15 percent chance). && .FIRE WEATHER... The Fire Weather Watches have been upgraded to Red Flag Warnings for the Fire Zones WA691/OR691 valid Tuesday 10 AM through 11 PM. Combined probabilities for low RH and wind of 25% and 30 mph gusts are in the 80 to 90th percentile, resulting in high confidence in the risk for rapid fire spreading of any starts Tuesday afternoon and evening. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 62 89 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 66 90 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 64 94 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 62 90 55 89 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 67 91 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 62 80 52 81 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 54 89 47 87 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 55 88 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 53 91 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 69 86 57 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for WAZ691. Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for WAZ024-026- 521. OR...Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ691. && $$ DISCUSSION...71 AVIATION...95 FIRE WEATHER...71

248 FXUS65 KREV 160741 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1241 AM PDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Near 100 degree highs for W.Nevada valleys through at least Wednesday with Moderate to localized Major HeatRisk concerns. * Shower and thunderstorm chances confined to the Sierra crest of Mono county today and Wednesday, though chances less than 15%. * A pattern change Thursday-Friday increases fire weather concerns due to increased thunderstorm chances along with gusty winds and low humidity. Cooling expected by next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... There is a 10-15% chance for showers and thunderstorms today along the Sierra crest. However, the most likely scenario will be increased cumulus buildups along the higher terrain due to strong surface heating. Speaking of heating, afternoon highs reach near 100 across much of western Nevada and northeast California, with near 90s for lower Sierra communities. Overnight lows will provide little heat relief as lows stay in the mid to upper 60s for western Nevada. These trends will continue through Thursday. As such, the Heat Advisory for Churchill and Pershing counties has been extended. Limit outdoor activities, take plenty of breaks in the shade, and remember to drink water this week. Thunderstorm chances return in earnest Thursday, mainly along the Sierra crest, per latest hi-res guidance. The current forecast highlights Mono county for Thursday (15-30% chance), though hi-res models hint at showers creeping into the Tahoe Basin and even northward along the Sierra of northeast California. Storms that develop Thursday will be capable of brief, heavy rainfall and outflow gusts up to 50 mph. Friday looks to be the day of greatest concern, with increased chances for elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. For further details, please see the fire weather section below. Chances for showers and thunderstorms becomes more widespread Friday, with a 15-25% chance for lightning extending from central Mono county up through the OR border, and east to the Churchill/Pershing and Lander county borders. Model sounding DCAPE values range up to 1400 J/kg, coinciding with outflow gusts up to 60 mph. Planning to be outdoors Friday? Keep an eye and ear to the skies; when thunder roars, go indoors! -Giralte && .AVIATION... VFR conditions for all terminals today. The only exception may be KMMH today where there is a less than 10% chance of showers and thunderstorms. Impacts from these storms include gusty and erratic outflow winds, brief downpours, and lightning. Additionally, mountain obscurations may develop along the highest peaks of the Sierra. Above average temperatures through mid-week will result in density altitude concerns. Nevada terminals will be the most vulnerable to these concerns as temperatures approach the triple digits. -Giralte/Fuentes && .FIRE WEATHER... Near triple digit heat will continue through Thursday, peaking today and tomorrow. With the heat, a very dry air mass will continue to drive afternoon humidity levels into the single digits and cause poor overnight recoveries in the teens and low 20% vicinity across the W.Nevada Basin and Range. Typical afternoon zephyr breezes return on this afternoon, bringing gusts of 20 to 25 mph. These hot, dry, and breezy conditions will combine to create brief, localized areas of elevated fire weather where vegetation is already dry, primarily in Washoe county and parts of northeast California. A pattern chance Thursday into Friday will open the door for fast-moving, high-based dry thunderstorms. A few storms could develop Thursday afternoon in Mono County before drifting north into the Tahoe Basin overnight and Friday morning. Friday afternoon will bring the greatest threat, with widespread scattered thunderstorms chances. Due to the low chance of wetting rains (<10%) associated with the fast-moving storms, new lightning ignitions will elevate fire weather concerns. In addition, the dry low-level airmass will favor stronger thunderstorm outflows with wind gusts of 50-60 mph. These strong outflows could rapidly spread any new ignitions, especially in areas of dry fuels. After several days of hot and dry conditions, vegetation will be more susceptible to burning, increasing the overall fire threat. -Giralte/Fuentes && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Friday NVZ004. CA...None. && $$

355 FXUS66 KSTO 151914 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1214 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot, well-above average temperatures through Tuesday with widespread Moderate HeatRisk and areas of Major HeatRisk in the northern/central Sac Valley. Hottest temperatures today. - Chances for mountain showers/thunderstorms along the Sierra crest on Thursday into Friday. - Cooler temperatures Thursday into the weekend with increased Delta breeze. && .DISCUSSION... Hot, well-above normal temperatures continue today with widespread Moderate HeatRisk and areas of Major HeatRisk in the northern/central Sacramento Valley and adjacent foothills. Hottest temperatures of the week are expected today, with highs approaching 110 in the northern Sacramento Valley. Expect elevated low temperatures tonight as well, which will limit overnight relief. As a result, an Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through 11 PM Tuesday. Diurnal Delta Breeze influence will work to keep the vicinity Delta and Sacramento area cooler compared to the rest of the Valley through this heat event, but highs will still be in the mid to upper 90s. Remember to stay cool and hydrated, and consider checking in on those more sensitive to heat. The hot temperatures combined with low relative humidity and breezy onshore winds, will continue the pattern of elevated fire weather conditions in the northern Sacramento Valley and adjacent terrain through Tuesday. Daytime humidities will be in the teens to mid 20s, with overnight recoveries in the 50s, though both daytime and overnight relative humidities should gradually improve into the weekend. On Wednesday, a gradual cooling trend begins as upper level ridging begins to break down. Near to below normal high temperatures are expected through the weekend. While we`re not expecting widespread precipitation with this pattern change, there is an increasing chance (15-25%) for isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Sierra crest on Thursday and into Friday. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions with clear skies over the next 24 hours. In the vicinity Delta, Westerly gusts up to 25-30 kts are possible through 18Z Tuesday. In the southern Sacramento Valley, west to southwest gusts 15 to 20 kts are possible between 00Z-05Z Tuesday. Sustained winds 12 kts or less elsewhere. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for Butte County Below 1000 ft-N. Sac Valley in Tehama County-Shasta County Foothills 1000-3000 ft-Shasta Lake Area & 1-5 1000-3000 ft- Shasta Metro-Sierra (Tehama-Plumas) 1000-3000 ft-Tehama Co Coast Range Above 3000 ft-W Tehama Co Foothills 1000-3000 ft-W. Shasta County 1000-3000 ft-W. Shasta County Above 3000 ft. && $$

981 FXUS65 KMSO 152013 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 213 PM MDT Mon Jun 15 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Warming trend through next week. - Strong winds gusting 40 to 50 mph on Tuesday across much of western Montana and north-central Idaho. - 65 percent chance for winds briefly exceeding 50 mph in the Pinesdale area of the western Bitterroot Valley, 80 percent chance in Anaconda later Tuesday. Isolated tree damage possible. - Moderate heat risk in the lower valleys of north-central Idaho as highs could reach upper 90s to low 100s Friday. Tuesday will feature unseasonably warm conditions as robust afternoon mixing elevates valley temperatures into the 80s and 90s. Highs in the upper 90s are likely across the lower valleys of north- central Idaho, including Hells Canyon, Orofino, and the Salmon River valley south of Grangeville. Coinciding with the heat, westerly winds will increase by late morning and peak between 5 PM and 8 PM MDT. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph will be prevalent across western Montana and Lemhi County, Idaho. Anticipated impacts include hazardous boating conditions on area lakes, crosswinds affecting high-profile vehicles, and potential tree damage leading to localized power outages. Furthermore, the hot, dry, and windy environment will generate elevated fire weather concerns across southwest Montana. A weak, dry cold front will advance from north to south across the region Tuesday evening, accompanied by broad, modest surface pressure rises after 6 PM MDT. Cold air advection aloft will intensify mid-level, ridge-top winds to near 60 mph across west- central Montana, inducing elevated mountain waves. High-resolution guidance suggests the strongest downward momentum will likely remain above the valley floors, hindered by a developing stable nocturnal layer and a lack of precipitation or virga to facilitate downward momentum transport. However, localized severe gusts remain possible. The National Blend of Models indicates a 25 to 45 percent probability of wind gusts exceeding 50 mph along the western Bitterroot Valley, peaking at a 65 percent probability near Pinesdale. Concurrently, isolated showers and thunderstorms may initiate over the Continental Divide in Glacier National Park, posing localized threats of lightning, small hail, and gusty outflow winds. Wednesday will bring temperatures 5 to 10 degrees cooler, returning the region to near-seasonal normals. The departing shortwave will focus scattered showers and thunderstorms across northwest Montana along the Continental Divide, while the remainder of the region stays dry. Upper level ridging will amplify Thursday and Friday, driving temperatures back to or slightly above Tuesday`s values. Lower valleys in north-central Idaho are forecast to reach the low 100s by Friday, carrying an 80 percent probability of reaching Moderate HeatRisk and posing a threat to vulnerable populations lacking adequate cooling or hydration. Another upper- level disturbance will approach late Friday into Saturday, reintroducing wind and precipitation chances. Thunderstorm probabilities will increase by Saturday, particularly along and south of the Interstate 90 corridor. && .AVIATION...Light winds and warm conditions will prevail through the rest of the day across the Northern Rockies. A strong upper- level jet will drape over the Northern Rockies Tuesday, bringing strong westerly winds to the majority of the region. Sustained winds of 15 to 25 kts and gusts reaching 40kts will be possible in the afternoon, through 17/0000Z. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible in the terrain along the Continental Divide from 16/2200Z to 17/0300Z. The convection will be capable of mixing down strong and erratic winds, and small hail. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM MDT Tuesday for Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower Clark Fork Region...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys... Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region. Wind Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to midnight MDT Tuesday night for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region. ID...Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM MDT Tuesday for Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County. && $$

497 FXUS65 KBOI 160601 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1201 AM MDT Tue Jun 16 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Above normal temperatures through next weekend with Tuesday and Friday being the hottest days. - The hot temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be accompanied by gusty winds and very dry conditions. - A chance of showers and thunderstorms returns to the area Friday and Saturday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... Issued 240 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026 The heat will reach its peak on Tuesday with high temperatures into the mid-90s across the lower Snake Plain. A few sites could close in on 100F along the ID/OR border and around Hagerman in the Snake Plain. Winds ramp up Tuesday afternoon reaching 15 to 25 mph with gusts 30 to 40 mph. A passing upper wave will bring a weak front across the area Tuesday night, and the post frontal pressure gradient will maintain breezy winds along the I-84 corridor through the night. While Tuesday is dry (precipitable water values in the 40th %tile), even drier air will move in behind the front on Wednesday (PW drops to 5th %tile). Winds remain gusty across the Snake Plain in response to a deepening surface low over eastern ID. Areas from Mountain Home to Twin/Jerome will see to around 40 mph Wednesday afternoon and evening. Similar to Tuesday the dry and windy pattern will result in critical fire weather conditions in the s-central Snake Plain. Wednesday is 5-10 degrees cooler, though still about 5 degrees above normal. && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... Issued 240 PM MDT MON JUN 15 2026 As the high pressure ridge builds, temperatures climb Thursday and Friday up to 10 to 15 degrees above normal by Friday. This will make Friday very comparable to the hot temperatures forecast for tomorrow. The heat on Friday will bring very low afternoon 5 to 10% minimum RHs across the area, especially in lower elevations. As the dry heat settles in, an upper level trough will move into the area for the weekend. While it will introduce some slightly cooler temperatures, it will also bring a chance of precipitation. Thunderstorms in Southeast Oregon and along the Idaho-Nevada border Friday evening pose a critical fire weather threat, and could produce outflow winds up to 40 mph based on long range forecast soundings. Behind the main trough axis, winds are forecast to ramp up across the upper Snake River Plain over the weekend. Showers and thunderstorms move into Idaho on Saturday. Temperatures begin to climb again next Monday as a ridge builds behind the trough. && .AVIATION /06Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 1200 AM MDT TUE JUN 16 2026 VFR with high clouds overnight. Hot temperatures will cause high density altitudes across the area Tuesday afternoon. Surface winds: light and variable overnight, becoming W-NW 10-20 kt gusting 25-30 kt Tuesday afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: NW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. High density altitude Tuesday afternoon. Surface winds: light and variable overnight, becoming NW 10-20 kt late Tuesday morning into afternoon. Gusts NW 25-30 kt after 17/01z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JDS SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....JM

486 FXUS65 KLKN 151911 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1211 PM PDT Mon Jun 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Pleasant weather and a warming trend to start the week * Heat Risk increases through the week for those sensitive to warm temperatures * Incoming weather system this weekend increases chances for thunderstorms and precipitation && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Monday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Building high pressure over the Pacific will migrate and broaden eastward into the Great Basin by this evening. This will exacerbate a warming trend already occurring that will push afternoon highs this week into the low to mid 90s through Thursday. Several temperature records will be at risk especially in central NV. Model guidance has backed off a bit on HeatRisk with the latest run. Both probabilistic and deterministic HeatRisk solutions have reduced in percentage chance and index value, respectively. While no Heat products are needed at this time caution should still be messaged and taken for those sensitive to warm temperatures and heat related illness. The HPC gets squeezed southeastward later this week as a ULT develops over the Pacific and begins to push into the western CONUS replacing the high and ridge over the area. The eastern flank of the trough will shift and increase low level winds to southerly. While speeds do increase relative to the stagnant regime of the high, winds will fall below criteria for a hot/dry/windy setup. The risk with this incoming system will be dry thunder. The moisture regime over the area is dry through Friday morning. Long term guidance increases RH and PW over mainly northern NV by Friday PM. A marked increase in CAPE (250-500 J/kg) over the area takes place Friday afternoon and remains through Saturday. This is evidenced by a range of 0.6-0.8 for CAPE shear in Euro EFI from 00Z Sat to 00Z Sun with a negligible shift of tails. This is also collocated with LIs of 0 to -2 Friday night and Saturday. The evolution of moisture with the current model run suggests a brief period of dry thunder over northern NV early Friday afternoon before a changeover to more wet and dry Friday night. A weak boundary associated with the system drags through the state during the overnight hours. The increase in dynamic forcing associated with the boundary combined with a brief surge in moisture availability yields a rainfall accumulation of a trace to 0.15 inches mainly for northern NV. The moisture profile is not as robust over central NV where convection will remain more dry than wet through the weekend. Rainfall amounts of 0.05-0.1 inches are possible north of US-50 on Saturday. The system exits the region quickly by Sunday morning when zonal flow develops over the western CONUS and the weather pattern appears to enter a quiet period into the following week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence continues for a warming trend that will increase HeatRisk across the CWA this week. Moderate confidence in isolated to scattered coverage of thunder Friday PM and Saturday. Low confidence in precipitation amounts associated with incoming weather system this weekend. No major grid changes needed at this time. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions and winds below 10KT expected at all sites except KELY through the next 24 hours. KELY will see some afternoon breezy winds up to 20KT that are expected to die down by this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure building over the area through mid week keeps a lid on stronger wind speeds and any hot/dry/windy setup for all fire weather zones. The focus of the forecast shifts to increasing confidence in RFW dry thunder for both Friday and Saturday of this week across all fire weather zones. Northern zones are forecast to see a changeover to more wet than dry Friday night while central NV zones will continue to see dry thunder into Saturday with only highest elevations receiving appreciable rainfall. This setup will need to be messaged and monitored as it evolves through future model runs. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...94 FIRE WEATHER...99