Heavy to excessive rainfall will continue through tonight from the Texas Big Bend region into southern Oklahoma. Scattered damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes may accompany a line of severe thunderstorms that is expected across the Mid-Atlantic into New England Friday. A Typhoon Watch continues for Guam and CNMI as Tropical Storm Champi will strengthen and approach the islands this weekend. Read More >
Seattle, WA
Center Weather Service Unit
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834 FXUS66 KSEW 152130 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 230 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A ridge will bring dry and warm conditions into Friday with highs in the mid 70s. The pattern flips back to trough dominant over the weekend with a weak system bringing light rain on Saturday. Additional rainfall is expected early next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Skies have cleared this afternoon with sunny skies and temperatures around the region in the mid to upper 60s. Winds will become breezy overnight from the east. The winds will be most elevated in the Cascades and adjacent foothills, easing by Friday morning. Gusts in these locations will likely be between 25-30 mph. Given the offshore flow, fog potential will be limited tomorrow morning. Isolated patchy fog in the south Sound and fog prone valley locations may still occur. Friday will be slightly warmer, with anticipated highs in the mid to upper 70s. Residual influence of the offshore flow will also dry things out with afternoon relative humidity values dipping into the upper 30 to low 40 percent ranges across western Washington. Onshore flow resumes Friday afternoon and by Saturday, the next weak frontal system will traverse the area. This will bring a few hundredths of an inch to most lowland locations and around a quarter of an inch to the Cascades. Areas of central Puget Sound may end up more rainshadowed given the weak moisture profile and southwesterly flow. Elevated westerly winds will move through the Strait of Juan de Fuca and Admiralty Inlet Saturday afternoon and evening behind the front. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Sunday will be cool and mostly dry as the trough offshore lingers. Highs will be in the upper 50s and low 60s. Most model guidance regarding the low pressure system on Monday actually take the feature to the south of the CWA. With that prognosis, the area generally stays dry, but cool into Monday. That trough will continue moving south, but Gulf of Alaska troughing builds back in through the middle of the week. A weak front moving off that low may arrive Wednesday into Thursday but does not look particularly strong and may produce isolated showers through Thursday. 21 && .AVIATION... High pressure aloft over the region this afternoon will shift inland on Friday. Flow aloft will remain southwesterly through the period. Latest satellite imagery shows fog and low clouds have largely scattered across the area this afternoon, leading to mostly sunny skies across western Washington. Conditions across the area terminals have rebounded to VFR as a result. A system approaching the region offshore will bring increasing high cloud cover to the area tonight into Friday. High cloud cover and continued offshore flow in the low levels tonight will likely limit widespread fog development on Friday morning, with hi-res guidance showing minimal development expected for the area terminals. However, a shallow layer of moisture remains present and could lead to some fog development at more fog- prone terminals. East/northeasterly winds will persist at 5-10 kt through the evening hours, before easing tonight. Winds will then transition to the southeast overnight into early Friday and then become more southerly through the morning hours. KSEA...VFR conditions. Northerly winds persisting between 5-10 kt will ease later tonight and become 5 kt or less. Winds will then gradually shift to the southeast overnight and then become more southerly through the morning hours on Friday. Fog development will likely be more limited overnight due to offshore flow and high cloud cover streaming in overhead, however areas of patchy fog may develop within the vicinity of the terminal. 14 && .MARINE... High pressure over the offshore waters with a thermal trough along the coast will promote offshore flow across the area waters into Friday morning. The trough will push inland on Friday ahead of an approaching frontal system, allowing for winds to switch back to onshore. Winds will increase Friday night into Saturday, with the strongest winds expected along the central and eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca, where latest hi- res guidance continues to show roughly a 35-50% likelihood of gusts exceeding gale force. Winds will become breezy as the frontal system approaches, with other locations such as the outer coastal waters and waters of Puget Sound and Hood Canal likely seeing wind gusts exceed small craft criteria. Winds will decrease as the system exits the area Saturday evening and will remain relatively light on Sunday. A low pressure system will track southward offshore on Monday, just skirting the coastal waters. This system will then likely bring another round of offshore flow to the area waters Monday night into Tuesday. Seas will persist between 3-6 ft into Friday, before building to 8-10 ft over the weekend. Seas could even build further early next week, but will be dependent on the track of the system offshore. The most likely scenario shows seas building to 9-12 ft on Monday, however the GEFS does continue to highlight a 40-50% of seas exceeding 12 ft. 14 && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ 379 FXUS66 KPQR 152133 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 232 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure and offshore easterly winds will bring dry and unseasonably warm temperatures through Friday. Strongest east winds are expected along the Columbia River Gorge and western slopes of the Cascades. A weak cold front will bring chances for light rain late Friday night into Saturday morning, before high pressure returns dry weather Saturday night into Sunday. The next chances for rain are Monday into early Tuesday with an approaching low pressure system, although guidance continues to trend drier. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Saturday Night...Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows the upper level ridge of high pressure building over the region. High pressure east of the Cascades will maintain low level offshore flow through Friday morning. Pressure gradients between Troutdale and the Dalles has peaked around -6.5 mb which is producing east wind gusts of around 25-35 mph across much of the Portland Metro area, with higher gusts up to 50-55 mph at wind prone and higher terrain areas within the Columbia River Gorge. Model guidance suggests pressure gradients remain around -4 to -6 mb through late Friday morning before easing Friday afternoon. Sunny skies today combined with the dry, offshore flow and mid-level (850 mb) temperatures warming to around 17-18 C will allow afternoon highs to warm into the mid to upper 70s, with a few locations reaching 80 degrees, including at the coast. On Friday, the upper level ridge shifts east as an upper level trough lifts NE over the Pacific. Expect increasing high cirrus clouds across the area as the flow aloft turns more southwesterly. Marine stratus will also begin pushing onto the coast as onshore flow returns later Friday afternoon, moderating temperatures at the coast. Otherwise, expect very similar temperatures across the interior lowlands through Friday afternoon. Although high temperatures are expected to be around 10-15 degrees above normal for mid-October, most locations are not expected to break any records (which were mainly set back in 2022). These could be our last "hot" days of the year, as we typically see temperatures drop off during the second half of October. A shortwave trough pushing into western Washington early Saturday will send a weak cold across the region. This will bring moderate to low chances of light rain to northern portions of the forecast area for Saturday morning. Mean QPF values range from a trace to 0.10 inch, generally north of Lincoln City at the coast and from the Portland metro area northward, with highest chances for rain in the southwest WA Cascades. Dry conditions by afternoon with breezy northerly winds expected behind the front, with temperatures cooling back to near seasonable normals. Will need to watch for potential frost again as overnight temperatures cool Sat night, especially in the Upper Hood River Valley. /DH && .LONG TERM...Sunday through Wednesday Night...Dry weather expected on Sunday as low amplitude shortwave ridging moves over the region. High confidence for near seasonable temperatures warming into the mid-60s inland and 50s along the coast. Potential for early morning frost continues Sunday night into Monday morning within the Upper Hood River Valley. Monday to Tuesday, the majority of ensemble members are in agreement that an upper-level trough from the northeast Pacific will approach the Pacific Northwest, returning chances for rain between early Monday morning and late Monday night. Will note that these chances have gone down significantly, as of 75% of ensemble members are now showing this trough staying farther offshore and progressing southward toward California rather than moving completely over the Pacific Northwest. If this scenario occurs, precipitation would be limited in our area. Chances for 24-hour rain totals exceeding 0.25 inch between 5 AM Monday to 5 AM Tuesday remain at around 15-25% along the coast and Coast Range, and 5-15% along the I-5 corridor. By Wednesday, ensembles show the upper trough swinging into central California, while weak high pressure shifts over the Pacific Northwest, favoring predominately dry conditions. At the same time, it does appear that another upper-level trough will begin to approach British Columbia and potentially make its way down into the Pacific Northwest late next week, returning chances for precipitation. DH/10 && .AVIATION...Through 00Z Saturday...Predominately VFR conditions with clear skies across northwest Oregon and southwest Washington through the TAF period as upper-level high pressure moves over the Pacific Northwest. Offshore flow continues through Friday, bringing east winds to the western slopes of the Cascades and Coast Range and to the coast. Breezy winds are expected through the Columbia River Gorge and eastern Portland/Vancouver Metro Area with gusts of 25-35 kts to KTTD and 21-25 kt to other Portland area terminals. Gusts up to 20-25 kts are also possible at times through coastal gaps. For the rest of the central and southern Willamette Valley, expect north to northeasterly winds around 5-10 kts. Elevated winds at most locations except near and east of KTTD will decrease after 03-06z Fri, with KTTD decreasing after 18-21z Fri. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with clear skies through the TAF period. Easterly winds increase this afternoon with gusts up to 21-25 kt after 19-21z Thu. Winds gradually weaken after 04-06z Fri. -03 && .MARINE...Benign marine conditions continue. Light east/northeasterly winds are transitioning to north/northwesterly winds over the waters through tonight as a thermal trough slowly breaks down. A series of fronts passing through the waters will turn winds southerly Friday night into Saturday morning, and Sunday night into Monday. Seas remain around 4-7 ft at 10-12 seconds through early Saturday morning. A steeper northwesterly swell arrives this weekend, building seas to 7-9 ft by Saturday evening and 10-13 ft early next week. Uncertainty remains on how high seas will rise early next week due to uncertainty on the track of the low pressure system associated with the swell. There is a 15-30% chance for seas exceeding 15 ft on Monday, with the highest chances beyond 30-40 NM. Will also note that the long periods from the swells will result in a moderate sneaker wave threat Friday into early next week. Caution should be used when in or near the water. -03 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland 273 FXUS66 KMFR 152313 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 413 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .New Aviation Section... .AVIATION (00Z TAFs)... Except along/near the coast, we are anticipating VFR conditions throughout the valid TAF period with overall light wind speeds. Medford may experience low level wind shear tonight with a jet around 1000 ft at ~30 knots from the southeast while wind speeds are negligible at the surface. Otherwise, North Bend is forecast to see a marine stratus layer developing with LIFR/IFR ceilings starting tonight and going through much off tomorrow. -Guerrero && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 218 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026/ KEY MESSAGES... * Very warm temperatures and dry conditions this afternoon and again Friday. * A dry cold front will move through Saturday with a cooling trend. * Dry, mild weather expected Sunday. * A stronger low and front approach the coast Sunday night with modest rain chances Monday along the coast and offshore, but low chances for inland areas. DISCUSSION...Through Friday, high pressure will remain in place with very warm temperatures and dry conditions. Highs are expected to be around 15 to 20 degrees above normal for inland areas. Coastal areas, which got warm today (82F at North Bend and 78F at Brookings as of 1 pm), will be a bit cooler Friday as onshore flow/marine influence gets back into the picture. Over the interior, breezy to gusty E-SE winds will persist over the mountains tonight into Friday morning. This will bring moderate to locally poor nighttime RH recoveries at higher elevations, and then low humidity for all areas during Friday afternoon. Some single digit minimum RH values are expected, especially in NorCal and east of the Cascades. This will bring elevated fire weather risk, so please be careful to avoid any unnecessary sparks. Then, on Saturday, a dry cold front will move across the area. This will bring cooler temperatures for most areas. A marine push will produce cloudier conditions across northwest portions of the CWA (mainly coastal areas and the Umpqua Basin). Temperatures are expected to be near normal along the coast and into Douglas County but elsewhere will be around 10 degrees above normal. There is some potential for breezy winds Saturday afternoon, especially along the coast and for areas east of the Cascades. Sunday expect dry and mild conditions with morning low clouds west of the southern Oregon Cascades. Low pressure and a cold front will approach the coast Sunday night. Current model runs show the low remaining offshore as it gradually shifts southward Monday. This will result in most the rain occuring offshore. Rain chances are 30-50% for Monday/Monday night from the Cascades west (highest coast). Lower rain chances (10-30%) exist east of the Cascades and in NE California. Tuesday into Wednesday, models continue to show the low headed into southern California. Some of the moisture may wrap around into southeast portions of the CWA but ensembles continue to show significant variability on the exact track of the low and northern extent of the moisture. So, confidence is low. -Spilde AVIATION...15/18Z TAFs updated early afternoon...18Z sounding showed 850mb winds of 25-30kt. The risk of bumpy departures/arrivals or even LLWS lessens as vertical mixing increases for a few hours this afternoon. However, once the sun sets this evening, the east to southeast winds are expected to continue over the mountains, while winds decouple from the boundary layer (surface winds go light) as the low-level inversion redevelops. Since those ESE winds will be just a couple of thousand feet off the surface (again approximately 25-30 kt), there`s an enhanced risk of low level wind shear at Medford Airport beginning 01-03Z and lasting until about 15Z. Breezy conditions likely persist in Ashland. VFR will prevail through the TAF period for all terminals except for localized IFR/LIFR in patchy fog along the coast or coastal valleys tonight into Friday morning. -Spilde MARINE...Updated 130 PM PDT Thursday, October 15, 2026...Conditions improve today as winds weaken and seas become primarily dominated by low westerly and southwesterly swells. A new swell will arrive around Saturday and push waves slightly higher this weekend. Conditions could become hazardous to small craft again beginning Saturday afternoon and continuing into Sunday. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$ 317 FXUS66 KEKA 152128 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 228 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Very dry conditions with gusty northeast winds focused in Lake County will increase fire danger Thursday and Friday. * A warming trend peaking Today and Friday with interior highs in the 90s. * Cold front most likely to cross the area Monday into Tuesday. 50% chance of wetting rain along the North Coast. && .SYNOPSIS...A general warming trend will peak today and Friday, even for the coast where marine influence remains weak. Cooler and more moist conditions build by the weekend. Early next week && .DISCUSSION...High pressure remains over the area this afternoon bringing warm temperatures that are ten to fifteen degrees above normal. An upper level trough continues to drop south through the Great Basin and towards the southern CA coast. This is expected to bring another round of northeast winds to Lake and Mendocino counties tonight and into Friday morning. These winds are expected to continue to bring drier air to the higher elevations. This offshore flow is expected to keep the marine clouds and fog mostly out of the area, although a few local areas of fog are possible. Hot weather is expected to continue in the inland areas on Friday although the coast will be cooler than today. For the weekend flow aloft becomes more zonal as a weather system moves by to the north of the area. This will drop inland temperatures each day and the marine clouds are expected to expand. Sunday high temperatures may struggle to reach 80 in the warmer valleys with cooler temperatures close to the coast. The potential for rain has now pushed back until Monday afternoon or Monday night. There is a 30 to 50 percent chance of a wetting rain in Humbodlt and Del Norte counties by Tuesday morning. Farther south probabilities are lower, but there is still the potential for some rain. Some of the models show an upper level low bringing more rain farther south. As the previous system moves out of the area high pressure starts to build back into the area bringing a return of dry weather and how warm it will be. && .AVIATION...18Z UPDATE...Widespread VFR is expected through the day again. Light winds along the coast will lead to decreased chances of any LLT. Late tonight, some of the higher resolution models are suggesting a rebuild of the marine layer, yet confidence is low (~25- 30 %) leading to only a TEMPO group of LIFR for CEC and SCT coverage at ACV for the time being. Ongoing breezy winds inland will continue through midday before calming this afternoon. N-NE winds will be the dominate direction, yet the terrain`s influence could cause some shifts in direction through the day, especially in more complex areas. Winds are forecasted to calm again tonight in the valleys with breezes up to 15mph continuing near the ridgelines, especially in eastern Lake and Mendocino counties. DS && .MARINE...Light winds are expected to continue tonight through Friday morning. The waves will remain dominated by a northwest swell and a more southerly swell. The northwest swell is around 5 feet at 12 seconds while the south to southwest swell is around 3 feet at 15 seconds. Friday afternoon northwesterly winds are expected to start building into the waters. These are expected to first increase in the southern waters and then expand north Friday night and Saturday. These are expected to be fairly shortlived and start to diminish on Sunday and especially Sunday night. Lighter winds are expected early next week and they may be southerly. Mid-week northerly winds are expected to increase again. MKK && .FIRE WEATHER...A warming and drying trend will peak Thursday and Friday. Interior highs will reach near 90 with RH sticking in the the teens. ERC values will return close to the 80th percentile, representing moderate to high fire danger. Said percentiles are near record breaking for the time of year but remain much lower than peak summer. Beyond just warm and dry conditions, a very positively tilted trough over the central California Coast will promote moderate northeast winds today, mostly restricted to high ridges as far north as central Humboldt County. Winds will be locally strong in southern and eastern Lake County with gusts mixing in the afternoon over 25 mph. These winds will promote areas of critical fire weather with a Red Flag warning in effect. Tonight the winds are expected to continue over the ridges of eastern and southern Lake county so upgraded and expanded the Fire Weather watch for these locations. It looks like the winds will increase earlier than expected so have started the RWF at 10PM. Northeast winds will weaken Friday, but remain gusty along high ridges at least through the morning. Conditions will be exceptionally dry Friday in the wake of the winds with many interior locations seeing single digit RH. MKK/JHW && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Red Flag Warning until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ418- 419. Fire Weather Watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for CAZ418-419. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Friday to 9 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png 678 FXUS66 KMTR 152353 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 453 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1149 PM PDT Wed Oct 14 2026 - Above normal temperatures continue into the weekend before a cooling trend begins Sunday into next week - Near critical fire weather conditions due to moderate flow and very dry conditions across the higher elevations Thursday and Friday - Potential for light rain and breezy onshore winds early to mid next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 (This evening through Friday night) Another warm and sunny day across our area with offshore flow providing above normal temperatures and abundant sunshine. With an upper level ridge over NorCal and upper level low over SoCal, we`re seeing a common setup for a relatively weak Diablo wind event through the North Bay interior mountains, which has resulted in a Red Flag Warning issued for 10p tonight through 11am Friday for that area. The highest peaks around Mt St Helena have already seen gusts between 50-60 mph and we expect that to continue until winds at lower altitude begin to increase later tonight through late morning Friday. It hasn`t rained in that part of the North Bay since September 4th, so conditions and fuels are very dry (see the Long Term discussion below for how that may change next week). Elevated fire weather concerns extend beyond the Red Flag Warning so we continue to message to abstain from any activities that could ignite a wildfire. The offshore flow continues to work against marine layer development with some of our coastal locations like Half Moon Bay and Monterey already in the low 80s and representing some of our highest temperatures of the day so far. The offshore flow will continue tonight providing clear skies area wide. Thermal belting above 1000ft over much of our area will result in poor RH recovery and overnight lows well above normal, providing little relief from the heat until at Saturday night. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 (Saturday through next Wednesday) We expect the Red Flag warning over the North Bay interior mountains to expire at 11am Friday with easing winds as the mitigating factor, temperatures will remain warm with very dry conditions and fuels persisting through Saturday until a notable pattern change sets in on Sunday. An upper level trough to our north will approach the coast over the weekend bringing a return of onshore flow, a subsequent cold front and notably cooler temperature and multiple days through the middle of next week with scattered light rain chances. We`re not expecting any one location to see more than a 0.25", and most locations that see some rain will get less than a 0.10" but confidence is increasing that most of our area will see at least a little bit of rainfall, with exact timing still too far out to speak of with any confidence. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 433 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 VFR through the forecast period due to offshore flow and dry air. Biggest challenge aviation wise will be dialing the winds. At points winds will be relatively light and variable. Offshore flow will strongest over the N and E Bays. Didn`t include in the TAF for STS/OAK, but marginal (20-30% chc) of LLWS. LLWS most likely from 08-15Z. Vicinity of SFO...VFR. Offshore push for the Friday AM rush. Onshore heading into the Friday afternoon rush. SFO Bridge Approach...VFR. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR. && .MARINE... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 1047 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 Moderate seas prevail across the outer waters, while the inner waters experience slight to moderate seas through Friday night. During this time frame, gentle to fresh northerly breezes continue. Moderate to fresh northerly winds return for the weekend, which will be accompanied with rough seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 132 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 A Red Flag Warning was issued for the North Bay Interior Mountains that goes into effect at 10PM tonight and runs through 11AM Friday morning. This is due to moderate offshore winds very dry with very poor overnight humidity recoveries only reaching 15 to 25 percent. Rapid fire spread is possible given the combination of gusty northerly winds and very dry overnight conditions. Elsewhere in the Bay Area, elevated to near critical fire weather conditions continue for the higher elevations late tonight through Friday morning. Dry conditions, poor overnight RH recovery, combined with the breezy winds, warmer weather, and available fuels leads to the elevated to near critical fire weather conditions. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Red Flag Warning from 10 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Friday for CAZ504. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JM LONG TERM....JM AVIATION...MM MARINE...RGass Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea 363 FXUS66 KOTX 152329 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 429 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mostly dry weather pattern through middle of next week. - A cold front on Saturday will bring breezy to locally windy conditions and the potential for patchy blowing dust. && .SYNOPSIS... Dry conditions and light winds remain in the forecast through the end of the workweek with a ridge of high pressure positioned over the region. Temperatures trend warmer, peaking in the mid 60s to mid 70s on Friday. On Saturday breezy to windy conditions will occur, before lighter winds and seasonal temperatures to follow Sunday into the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Thursday night through Saturday: Upper-level ridging strengthens over the Inland Northwest Thursday night into Friday. This will keep weather dry with temperatures warming on Friday into the mid 60s to mid 70s. Changes in the pattern arrive Saturday as a quick moving cold front moves through the Pacific Northwest. Moisture will be rather limited with this front, with nearly all of the precipitation falling west of and at the Cascade crest. There is a small chance for very light rain or sprinkles across northeast Washington with the front, but amounts will be negligible. The primary hazard with this front will be the winds as the PDX-GPI pressure gradient increases to +9-13mb and 850mb winds increase to around 25 to 35 mph. This will support sustained winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts 25 to 40 mph across the lee of the Cascades, the Columbia Basin, the Spokane/CdA area and the Washington and Idaho Palouse late Saturday morning through the afternoon. The National Blend of Models (NBM) probabilities supports this south a widespread 50% or greater for wind gusts greater than 30 MPH across the aforementioned areas, with an 80% chance or greater across the Waterville Plateau and the upper Columbia Basin. A lack of precipitation in recent weeks across the Columbia Basin, patchy blowing dust will be a concern along with choppy lakes, crosswinds, and airborne Halloween decorations that are not tied down. Sunday through Wednesday: Quiet weather returns for Sunday with temperatures cooling by 3-7 degrees and much lighter winds. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to depict an upper- level trough digging along the west coast early next week, with the base digging into a closed low over California. This evolution will leave the Pacific Northwest under subtle ridging before the upper-level low gets picked back up into the main flow later in the week. Aside from low precipitation chances (10 to 15%) across the Cascade crest Monday night, shifting to the Blue Mountains and central Idaho Panhandle mountains on Tuesday, dry and cool conditions will persist through Wednesday. /vmt && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFS: High pressure over the region will promote VFR conditions. Strengthening high pressure in the lee of the Rockies in NW Montana will lead to predominately easterly flow with the strongest winds at KPUW 13-19z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 37 71 44 64 36 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 38 69 42 64 37 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 40 70 44 65 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 39 73 43 72 41 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 33 69 36 67 30 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 36 66 39 62 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 38 69 42 63 35 60 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 38 70 39 68 32 63 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 45 69 49 67 40 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 41 68 43 68 38 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$ 733 FXUS66 KPDT 152224 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 324 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Dry and warm conditions through the end of the week 2. Gusty conditions through the Grande Ronde Valley tomorrow afternoon with elevated fire risk. 3. Trough develops through area beginning Monday with the potential for rainfall along Blue Mountains && .DISCUSSION... Clear skies continue to be present over the region thanks to continued upper-level ridging along the US West Coast. Current guidance timing suggests that the ridge will remain present in the region throughout the rest of today and tomorrow, transitioning to zonal flow alongside a shortwave trough tomorrow night into Saturday morning. Said shortwave trough will likely (greater than 50% chance) be positioned along the US- Canada border, limiting precipitation chances through the region (less than 20%). As the primary trough axis continues to move eastward, deterministic guidance highlights a favorable surface pressure gradient across the Blue Mountains for gusty south/southeast winds tomorrow into Saturday morning, especially around the Grande Ronde Valley. NBM ensemble probabilities for this time show a high chance (around 75%) of localized sustained winds in excess of 20 mph, with a moderate chance (up to 50%) of local gusts in excess of 40mph in the Grande Ronde Valley. Given the windy conditions in these regions, as well as RH values around 15-20% for much of the Blue Mountains in the afternoon, an elevated fire risk is present for these regions for Friday afternoon into the evening. As zonal flow continues throughout the weekend, an upper level trough will begin to develop offshore Sunday night through Monday, moving into the PacNW region Monday night into Tuesday. Ensemble guidance is confident (greater than 75% chance) that a trough will occur, however significant variability still exists regarding trough strength and timing. Because of this uncertainty in trough depth, there is low confidence (around 30-40%) in current rainfall amounts. In scenarios where the trough is deeper, with a closed low developing near California, rainfall is limited to non-wetting amounts along the Blue Mountains. In scenarios with a more northward low or open wave setup, wetting rainfall in these regions is more likely with the improved moisture flow pattern. Lingering rainfall is possible into Wednesday and Thursday as the trough moves eastward and weakens, however the same model variability concerns and low confidence still applies. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... VFR conditions to persist throughout the TAF period for all sites. Clear skies to start with few high clouds starting towards the 08- 12z period for all sites. Breezier conditions for KDLS, KRDM, and KBND at 10KT, with gusts at 15KT for KDLS and KBDN. KRDM shows highest gusts at 20kt. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 69 37 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 69 44 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 72 38 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 70 42 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 70 37 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 67 38 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 75 33 79 36 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 70 41 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 75 36 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 74 44 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 69 37 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 69 44 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 72 38 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 70 42 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 70 37 71 41 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 67 38 67 41 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 75 33 79 36 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 70 41 71 46 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 75 36 77 37 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 74 44 76 47 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...21/71 AVIATION...07/95 782 FXUS65 KREV 151907 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 1207 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warmer conditions prevail through this weekend. * Increased east to southeast breezes through Friday with stronger ridge top winds peaking tonight. * Cooler temperatures return next week with increased winds Monday, followed by chances for rain and mountain snow showers. && .DISCUSSION... While the remainder of this week will remain dry with daytime highs warming to the upper 60s-mid 70s on Friday, winds will be the primary weather feature through Friday night. East winds have increased over the Sierra crest with gusts up to 60 mph this morning while for the Carson Range, gusts on Slide Mtn have ranged from 35-40 mph. Lake Tahoe buoys reported conditions nearing lake wind advisory thresholds--sustained 15-20 mph with gusts 25-30 mph and observed choppy conditions (estimated wave heights up to 2 feet) from west shore web cameras. These winds are projected to peak this evening and late tonight which align with Tahoe`s current Lake Wind Advisory. Elsewhere, east to northeast wind gusts of 15-20 mph with occasional gusts to 25 mph are expected through early this evening. By Friday, the Sierra ridge winds diminish, but a surface gradient remains over lower elevations with winds shifting to the southeast. Gusts of 15-25 mph are expected for much of the region, with pockets of enhanced 30-35 mph gusts in parts of Mineral County and northeast CA/far northwest NV which could elevate fire weather concerns in these areas--see the Fire Weather section below for more details. Higher resolution guidance holds on to a small area of enhanced southeast to south winds (sustained 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph) across Mineral and southeast Churchill counties Friday night. This includes Walker Lake which could become choppy overnight, but these conditions will ease by Saturday morning as winds diminish. Lighter winds then prevail through the remainder of Saturday, then more typical zephyr-type southwest/west breezes (gusts up to 25 mph) return Sunday afternoon. Temperatures this weekend will rise into the mid-upper 70s for lower elevations and near 70 degrees in the Sierra. An approaching upper-level trough breaks down the ridge early next week. Monday brings the start of a cooling trend with increasing potential for wind gusts 30-40 mph and renewed fire weather concerns (also detailed in the Fire Weather section below). Cooler temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s follow Tuesday through Thursday as low pressure drops southward off the CA coast. While some scenarios were still showing a farther offshore track, there`s a bit more confidence this low will be close enough to bring showers into the Sierra as soon as Tuesday morning, then spread into parts of western NV Tuesday afternoon or evening. Precip chances have increased to 40-60% near and south of I-80, with 25-40% chances north of I-80 from Tuesday night through Wednesday night, with 15-35% shower chances lingering through Thursday, as the most likely scenario favors a slow eastward progression of this low across the Great Basin or southwest US as it moves inland. Precip and mountain snow amounts (mainly above 8000 ft) have also trended upward compared to yesterday`s forecast, although this will continue to fluctuate depending on the storm`s eventual track. MJD && .AVIATION... * VFR conditions prevail through this weekend under clear skies or patchy cirrus. East/southeast gusts up to 15-20 kts this afternoon through Friday, then lighter winds Saturday. Stronger FL100/ridge top east winds (40-50 kts) through Friday morning may trigger mountain wave turbulence and LLWS west of the Sierra and Carson Ranges. MJD && .FIRE WEATHER... * A short period of elevated fire weather conditions may occur Friday afternoon over isolated portions of northern Washoe County, the Surprise Valley, northeast Lassen County and parts of Mineral County where southeast wind gusts could reach 30-35 mph, with minimum humidity between 12-18%. * The next period to watch for elevated fire weather concerns is Monday afternoon, as southwest winds return with potential gusts 30-40 mph from the Sierra Front/Tahoe basin northward to northeast CA/northwest NV. Humidity looks more marginal with minimums mainly 15-20% in lower elevations and 20-30% for Sierra locations, but most of these areas have seen little to no rainfall for the past few weeks. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Friday NVZ002. CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Friday CAZ072. && $$ 467 FXUS66 KSTO 151907 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1207 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Red Flag Warning in effect until 10 AM PDT Friday for the Sierra and adjacent foothills. - Dry and warm weather with gusty east-northeast Sierra winds through the end of the week. - Gradual cool down through the weekend with renewed precipitation chances early to mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... ...Rest of Today-Friday... Mostly clear skies observed across interior NorCal at the time of this writing. Upper level pattern reveals a ridge of high pressure deepening inland and weak troughing developing to the southeast of the area. Pattern will continue to allow for gusty north to east winds in the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills, north winds in the Valley, and low humidity values. Some observation points in the higher elevations have recorded wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph this morning, as well as morning RH values in the teens to low 20s, creating critical fire weather conditions. As the ridge and low deepen, winds will once again increase as we move into the evening and overnight areas. The Red Flag Warning will continue in the Sierra and adjacent foothills through at least 10 AM Friday. NBM probabilities of wind gusts greater than 40 mph in the mountains are around 70-90% this evening and overnight, as the resultant pressure gradient will be the strongest. Overnight RH recoveries will remain in the low 20s to 30s, similar to what we saw this morning. Elsewhere in the Valley, periods of breezy north to east winds will develop; strongest along and west of the I-5 corridor today and Friday. Locally stronger wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph in Colusa, Yolo, and northwestern Solano Counties will develop Friday as well. Elevated fire weather conditions will continue in the Valley and areas listed above tomorrow when winds are the strongest and humidity values are at their lowest. High temperatures will continue to warm today and Friday, with highs reaching the low 90s across much of the Valley. Ridge axis will begin to slowly move to the east, while a weak cut-off low forms in SoCal by Friday, keeping those dry and breezy to gusty conditions lingering through the afternoon/evening. ...Weekend into Next Week... By Saturday, the ridge moves further east, and cut-loff low remains off the coast of SoCal. Pattern will allow for slight cooling to begin across the region, but only by a few degrees keeping temperatures above normal with continued dry conditions. Offshore winds will ease as well as the upper air pattern continues to evolve. Sunday, a notable pattern change will begin as the aforementioned SoCal cut-off low will factor more into our weather pattern, allowing onshore flow to return to the area. High temperatures will cool to the low 80s across NorCal on Sunday and humidity values will see much better recoveries. Low pressure will also develop in the PacNW and begin to dig further south Sunday afternoon/evening. Further southerly movement of the PacNW low and associated offshore troughing will cool temperatures further Monday through Wednesday, as well as introduce some slight shower chances to the region. Uncertainty remains relatively high on where the PacNW low will track, but recent ensemble runs are trying to keep the parent low offshore. Pattern would suggest better precipitation chances in the mountains and foothills, and the NBM probabilities reveal the best chances (50-70%) of 0.10" of measurable rain will be in the higher elevations. We will continue to monitor the track and strength of this system, but overall a cooldown and return of onshore flow are very likely early next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue across interior NorCal next 24 hours. Light to locally breezy north winds less than 12 knots at Valley TAF sites. North wind gusts up to 15 to 20 knots at RDD and RBL beginning roughly 20z today and continuing through the forecast period Friday. East to northeast wind gusts of 30-45 knots along the Sierra next 24 hours. Additional north wind gusts of 20-30 knots in Yolo and Colusa counties 20z today. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 10 AM PDT Friday for Central Motherlode 1000-3000 ft-N. Motherlode 1000-3000 ft-Sierra (Cal-Tuo) 3000- 5000 ft-Sierra (Cal-Tuo) Above 5000 ft-Sierra (El Dorado-Amador) Above 5000 ft-Sierra (Sierra-Placer) Above 5000 ft-Sierra (Tehama-Plumas) 1000-3000 ft-Sierra (Tehama-Plumas) Above 3000 ft-Sierra (Yuba-Placer) 3000-5000 ft-Sierra 3000-5000 ft- Southern Motherlode 1000-3000 ft. && $$ 672 FXUS65 KMSO 151833 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1233 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Cool mornings and pleasant afternoons the rest of the week. - Gusty winds and choppy lakes on Saturday, especially across northwest MT. - Pattern shift early next week, gradually cooling with scattered showers. A ridge of high pressure will bring mostly sunny skies and pleasant mid-October weather across the region through Friday, aside from some patchy valley fog Friday morning. High temperatures on Friday may stay slightly cooler in the valleys than initially expected due to stable conditions and cold air trapped in the valleys overnight (inversions). The pattern shifts this weekend, as a dry cold front sweeps through western Montana and north-central Idaho Saturday afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front, breezy westerly winds will help warm daytime temperatures. Expect wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph, with exposed higher terrain seeing gusts in excess of 50 mph. These winds will create choppy conditions on local lakes and pose hazards for small watercraft, especially along the eastern shores of Flathead Lake. While a few light showers may pass through northwest Montana, little to no rain is expected. Afternoon temperatures will remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal for this time of year through mid-week. A broader weather system will move into the western US mid-week. Most of the moisture and storm energy are expected to track well south of our area into the Great Basin. However, the Northern Rockies will still transition to a more active weather pattern. Expect a return of showers and a cooldown to near-average seasonal temperatures through the end of the week. && .AVIATION...A ridge of high pressure remains over the region through Friday, generally favoring VFR conditions. However, the strengthening ridge will favor overnight valley inversions, resulting in areas of dense fog and stratus. A Canadian air mass moving south from Alberta this evening may bring just enough of a light easterly wind to keep the lower atmosphere mixed at KGPI and KMSO, which should prevent low-level fog from developing. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$ 327 FXUS65 KBOI 152350 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 550 PM MDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry conditions through the weekend with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal Friday and Saturday. - Active pattern returning cooler conditions and precipitation chances Wednesday through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Saturday Night/... Issued 352 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026 An upper level ridge over the western United States will remain the dominant weather feature across southeast Oregon and southwest Idaho through Friday night. This will keep atmospheric conditions stable, resulting in clear skies, light surface winds, and temperatures running roughly 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal norms. Dry surface layer conditions will also contribute to mild afternoons and efficient radiational cooling at night. By Saturday, a weak shortwave trough moving inland across the Pacific Northwest will begin to erode the western periphery of the ridge. While moisture remains sparse with this system, the pressure gradient will tighten slightly to generate localized afternoon breezes. && .LONG TERM /Sunday through Thursday/... Issued 352 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026 Sunday and Monday, temperatures remain about 5 to 10 degrees above normal. A weak cold front on Sunday cools temps a few degrees from Saturday. Through the rest of the week, a high amplitude trough becomes a cut off low in southern California. As the trough builds along the West Coast Monday evening, increasing clouds and some breezy conditions in SE Oregon are expected. The low becomes cut off on Tuesday, as the earliest models show the cold front move through. There is still some uncertainty, inherent to cut off lows, that shows the cold front moving through Wednesday. When it passes, it will cool temps down to normal, low 60s for the afternoon high in lower elevations, low 50s for mountain valleys. The cloud cover, and increasing chance of precipitation Tuesday evening through Thursday evening could help to moderate temperatures further. && .AVIATION /00Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 539 PM MDT THU OCT 15 2026 VFR. Areas of smoke from prescribed burning near KBNO and KMYL. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions from valley fog near KBKE-KBNO again tonight. Surface winds: E-SE 5-10 kt. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: E-NE 5-10 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds SE 5-15 kt. Weekend Outlook...VFR with mostly clear skies on Sat/Sun. Areas of smoke from prescribed burns. Surface winds: E-SE 5-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt mainly east of KBOI on Saturday, then S-SE 5-10 kt Sunday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SA SHORT TERM...JDS LONG TERM....JM 292 FXUS65 KLKN 152038 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 138 PM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Ridge pattern to close the week with warming temperatures * Series of weather systems through the Great Basin next week && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Wednesday) Currently, we are sitting in between a weak trough to our south, and a weak ridge trying to develop to our north. While both seem to be struggling, model guidance suggests both can fully develop by Friday morning. Between these two features, the area is experiencing an easterly/northeasterly flow. This pattern is accompanied by significantly slower winds in the northern portions of the forecast area, closer to the high, and faster flow in the southern regions, near the low. Residual moisture being trapped by the two systems seems to be keeping the temperatures in check for the moment. Limited positive moisture advection is present when looking at the higher elevations, with a moderate moisture transport moving towards northern Nevada out of the Great Salt Lake. As this is all near the surface, the upper levels will still remain dry from the overlying ridge, allowing us to remain in minimal cloud cover for the next few days. It is for these reasons we will see a gradual warming into pleasant temperatures as we work through the weekend. The highs will be sitting in the 60s and 70s as we move through today, and will increase at very slow rates as we get to Monday. Our lows are currently expected to stay in the low 30s tonight, but if recent trends continue, I wouldnt be surprised to see them land in the mid 30s. Not a major difference, but enough to acknowledge the models are overshooting the lows due to the higher dew points. These lows are expected to increase up to the upper 30s, lower 40s as we get to Sunday before the next pattern sets in. Next week, we are still expecting a major polar jet to push through, bringing a very deep low, colder temperatures, and precipitation. Who needs wishcasting when you can have this. Long range model guidance is showing a deep low moving off the Pacific Ocean across portions of AZ, CA, and southern NV, which will extend a vorticity maxima line across the state with the passage. The different models are still struggling with timing, but there is an overall trend of moving it later into the forecast period. The GFS currently has the primary passage occurring for the Tuesday into Wednesday time frame, while the ECMWF is looking more mid-day Thursday into Friday. Precipitation types are still a question, with the biggest concerns being around the surface. We are currently looking at surface temps hovering around freezing. As of right now, the less whimsical option appears more likely, in the surface lows will stay above freezing until after the FROPA and the precipitation has passed. This means widespread rain is in the forecast with potential for snow mostly in the higher elevations. This does not mean that we wont see any snow in the valleys, but the likelihood of just rain is still seeming higher. If one thing is certain, this is not an event to leave town for if you love winter. As we push into this event, the highs are supposed to be in the upper 50s/ low 60s pre-frontal, and in the mid 40s/ low 50s post-frontal. The lows are expected to follow the pattern of upper 30s/ low 40s pre-frontal, and in the mid 30s post-frontal. Confidence: High confidence for a relatively clear and pleasant weekend. Medium confidence in the polar jet bringing precipitation and cold temperatures. Low confidence in precipitation type and timing of the polar jet. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals for at least the next 24 hours. Thursday afternoon, northerly wind gusts ranging from 20-25kts at KTPH/KELY will diminish after sunset. No precipitation is forecasted through Friday afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather remains quiet, with no thunder or humidity concerns and only standard afternoon breezes for winds. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...82 FIRE WEATHER...94 |
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US Dept of Commerce
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
National Weather Service
Seattle, WA
3101 Auburn Way South
Auburn, WA 98092
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