ZSE Aviation Forecast Discussions

390 FXUS66 KSEW 251028 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 328 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 .SYNOPSIS... A surface low will move southwest to northeast today bringing increasing winds to the area. High pressure will build in tonight with winds easing quickly. Upper level trough will move through today as well bringing showers and a chance of thunderstorms. The trough will move east tonight with drying northwesterly flow aloft. Upper level trough digging offshore with split flow aloft off the coast for a dry weekend. Flow aloft becoming zonal Monday with a chance of rain in the forecast at times next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Satellite imagery does not look like the last week of September. Cold front east of the metro area early this morning with a bent back occlusion off the coast. Steady rain ended a little after midnight over the interior. Doppler radar has shower activity over the northern portion of the area. Temperatures at 3 am/10Z were in the lower to mid 50s. Lots of changes to the forecast this morning. The big question is where is the surface low off the coast associated with the bent back occlusion going to track. Previous model runs had the low moving inland south tracking through the Southwest Interior this morning. There are model solutions tonight that are sticking with this scenario. Surface observations along the coast show the strongest surface pressure falls not near the mouth of the Columbia River but instead between Hoquiam and buoy 41. This brings the low inland on a more northerly track with the low center taking aim at the Central Puget Sound later this morning. Strong surface pressure rises behind the low plus an unstable air mass possibly mixing 925 mb winds in the 30 to 40 knot range down to the surface will create windy conditions south of the low center. Have issued wind advisories beginning later this morning and continuing through the afternoon hours from Tacoma southward including the coast. In general expect west to southwest winds gusting 35 to 45 mph with a little stronger gusts along the coast. With plenty of foliage still on the trees, winds this strong could bring down some branches and cause power outages. This isn`t the only wind scenario for the area today. As the low continues to move northeast this afternoon surface gradients will rapidly increase through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Westerly wind surge coming down the Strait this afternoon will be strong enough to produce wind advisory strength wind gusts along the shores of the Strait of Juan de Fuca into Whidbey Island, especially the northern end. A wind advisory has been issued for these locations as well. Unstable air mass moving over the area this morning with an upper level trough over the area. Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms for most of the day. There will be a quick very strong convergence zone somewhere between Seattle and Everett this afternoon. Thunderstorm chances are higher in the convergence zone. High temperatures in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Wind advisory strength westerlies continuing into the early evening hours through the Strait into Whidbey Island. For the remainder of the area weather calming down with surface high pressure building into the area and the upper level trough moving off to the east. Winds through the Strait will ease before midnight. Clearing skies will produce the coldest morning since early June with lows in the 40s. Saturday and Sunday looking dry at this point. Upper level trough offshore digging south with split flow aloft off the coast. Light surface gradients bring up the possibility of morning fog especially Sunday. Even with sunshine, highs will be below normal, in the lower to mid 60s. Sunday morning will be another cool one with the colder locations getting into the upper 30s. Felton && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... Upper level trough moving inland Monday with the flow aloft consolidating off the coast. Models in pretty good agreement with the next system arriving Monday night or Tuesday bringing a chance of rain back to the forecast. Models solutions start to lose their consistency Wednesday and Thursday. Some of the solutions build a weak upper level ridge over the area while other solutions bring a weak system through Wednesday night or Thursday. Will have chance or slight chance pops both days until model solutions consolidate. Highs remaining in the lower to mid 60s with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Felton && .AVIATION... A surface low pressure system will continue to northeast across the terminals today. The center of the low will track from southwest Washington into Puget Sound through the day, bringing an occluding front through. The first bands of rain are moving through the Cascades and the north interior, with additional wrap around moisture on the west side of the low offshore this morning along the coast. This will move inland into the afternoon, with activity becoming more showery in nature. There remains a 20-25% chance of thunder for all the terminals today. Ceilings will gradually lower this morning with a mix of MVFR ceilings for Puget Sound, and outside areas seeing IFR to LIFR ceilings. Some mist will likely accompany the low ceilings. Improvement will likely prolong into late this afternoon with additional rain moving through - with models hinting 21-00Z for VFR improvement in the central/south interior only. Models are indicating widespread LIFR conditions Saturday morning, especially in the interior. Winds will become increasingly gusty this morning, starting out of the southwest and becoming more westerly on the backside of the low. Sustained winds of 15-20 kt with gusts up to 30 to 35 kt are expected, particularly in the south interior, Pacific Coast, and Whidbey Island/Salish Sea Coast. Isolated wind gusts over 40 kt are possible in the Strait of Juan de Fuca. The winds will decrease Friday night into Saturday to 5 kt or less. KSEA...Ceilings will decrease to MVFR this morning with areas of mist behind the first round of rain. The next round of rain will move through late this morning and afternoon and will be more showery in nature. There remains a 20% chance of thunder through the day. VFR improvement will take place later in the day (00Z). There are increasing chances for LIFR conditions Saturday morning from 12Z- 18Z. Winds will pick up after 18Z to 10-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt out of the southwest through 06Z, decreasing to 5 kt out of the south Saturday morning. HPR && .MARINE... A surface low pressure and frontal system is tracking through the coastal waters this morning, with the center of the low just off of Astoria OR. Radar has an area of thunderstorms around the center of the low moving to the northeast. Additional thunderstorms will be possible today in the coastal and interior waters as the system tracks northeastward. With pressure drop observations at buoy 41 this morning (2 mb an hour) and high-resolution models indicating stronger winds, the gale warning was expanded to include all of the coastal waters for today. The gale warning continues for the Strait of Juan de Fuca, and the small craft advisory in the interior waters now includes the Admiralty Inlet. The strongest winds this morning will be in the southern coastal waters where gusts up to 40 kt are expected as winds increase out of the northwest behind the low. A strong push in the Strait of Juan de Fuca will also bring west wind gusts up to 40 kt later this afternoon and evening. The remaining Puget Sound/North Interior waters will see winds increase late this morning and afternoon, though confidence remains for only seeing small craft impacts in these waters. Winds will decrease tonight into the weekend, with high pressure building offshore. A weak front will dissipate off the coast Sunday, with a stronger system moving through the waters midweek next week with another chance of hazardous winds and seas. Seas will increase today to 9-12 ft with a couple instances of 13-15 ft with the highest winds. The seas will drop to 4-6 ft this weekend into early next week, but increase back to near 10 ft with the midweek system. HPR && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Island County-Northern Washington Coast-Port Townsend Area-Western Strait of Juan de Fuca. Wind Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Grays Harbor County Coast. PZ...Gale Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Saturday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Saturday for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for Admiralty Inlet-Puget Sound and Hood Canal. Gale Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

200 FXUS66 KPQR 251111 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 411 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A robust early-season low pressure system will bring continued showers across the region today in addition to a burst of gusty winds (mainly this morning). Wind Advisories are in effect for the central and northern Willamette Valley into southwest Washington through 11am. At least the rather progressive pattern ensures drier weather quickly returns by Saturday morning through the remainder of the weekend. Chances (20-45%) for rain increase again Tuesday and Wednesday along with forecast uncertainty. && .DISCUSSION..Now through Thursday...This morning the core of an upper level low pressure system is rapidly approaching far northwest Oregon and southwest Washington with the region transitioning to a post-frontal airmass as the initial cold front which brought widespread stratiform rainfall shifted east of the Cascade crest-line. The immediate focus this morning regards gusty southwest to south winds associated with this system which are already being observed along the coast and in portions of the Willamette Valley. Confidence has increased surface low will come onshore around Pacific County, WA before swinging northeastward into the Puget Sound. This sets the stage for a period of time this morning when a decent surface pressure gradient orients itself perpendicular to I-5. While this alone can drive breezy winds, the gradient likely comes into alignment during a period of time when increasing instability near the surface has the potential to tap into the passing low level sting-jet wrapping around the backside of the low pressure center. The majority of the latest deterministic guidance depicts 925-850mb winds peaking near 40-50 knots as that N to S surface pressure gradient is overhead. So the ingredients your looking for when it comes to driving near Advisory level wind gust, and exceeding those projected by the baseline NBM, will be present. Exploring the latest CAMs add a notable amount of confidence in wind gusts reaching in the 35-50 mph range from the Central Willamette Valley northward into Southwest Washington. Expect your highest gusts in valley locations with a good south to north fetch and exposed ridgetops. Another area which will likely see some locally stronger winds is east of the crest within the Hood River Valley, downslope acceleration on east- facing slopes will see strong winds prolonged through Friday afternoon. Wind Advisories are in effect for the aforementioned areas. While these forecast winds may not be that impressive compared to some of our stronger winter-time storms, the early season nature of this system may favor exacerbated tree damage at lower wind speeds as full leaf cover acts to increase drag on tree limbs. Otherwise, cooler air in place aloft near the low center will support sufficient instability to maintain rain showers at times today, and daytime surface heating will act to further increase instability and generate ~15-20% chances for thunder anywhere between the coast and the Cascade crest. An isolated cold core funnel also cannot be ruled out, most likely along the coast, but impacts at the ground from these features are unlikely. It`s worth noting while limited instability will cap thunderstorm intensity, the availability of higher momentum air at low altitudes will make any thunderstorm or heavy rain shower capable of producing gusty outflow through the afternoon hours, which may also support local areas of wind damage. Rainfall amounts remain unlikely to cause impacts, with annual minimum streamflows able to handle runoff without flooding concerns. Rain showers will end across most areas west of the Cascades this evening, and in the Cascades tonight. Progressive shortwave ridging from this point into Saturday will then favor rapid drying. Temperatures hold below average during this period, with afternoon highs only in the upper 50s to low 60s across the region today. Cooler air behind the frontal boundary will see overnight lows fall into the 40s by sunrise Saturday morning, perhaps to the upper 30s in the Hood River Valley. There is a 15-30% chance of low temperatures below 37 degrees in the Odell area, and 40-60% chances farther up the valley near Dee and Parkdale - heavily dependent on clearing skies. Frost Advisories may be needed in these areas if confidence in frost impacts increase. The progressive pattern aloft will see upper-level ridging and surface high pressure support dry weather into early next week, although moderating temperatures are still likely to remain below seasonal norms with highs in the mid to upper 60s across the lowlands. Cool overnight lows may favor further chances for frost in the Upper Hood River Valley, with decreasing confidence after Saturday morning. The majority of long-range ensemble members favor troughing to return to the Pacific Northwest Tuesday into Wednesday of next week, although there remains much spread in its intensity and location. Chances for rainfall therefore increase to 20-40% during this period, generally higher to the north, along the coast, and within areas of terrain. -99/36 && .AVIATION...Through 12Z Friday...The region sits in a lull as far as precipitation is concerned as the main rainfall band shifts further east of the Cascades and rain showers begin to make their way onshore. Southerly flow aloft turns westerly later Friday morning as an upper level trough moves across the region, while a compact surface low near the coast drives gusty surface winds this morning. Current conditions are a mix of VFR to MVFR although we`ll trend towards the latter through the morning hours. At the coast, probs for IFR peak between 12-18z at around 30-50%. Showers are expected to continue through this afternoon into the early evening. Best chance for thunderstorms (20%) appears to be near the north Oregon coast, with chances for afternoon thunderstorms generally 15%. South winds peak through 17-19z this morning with gusts up to 30-40 kt. KPDX AND APPROACHES....Conditions likely remain a mix of VFR to MVFR this morning with lower CIGs/VIS present in showers throughout the day. Expect a return to dry weather tonight. South winds have already begin to increase, peaking around 30-35 knots 14-18z before decreasing then turning more westerly after 21z. Lighter westerly winds return tonight. -99/DH && .MARINE...The center of a robust low pressure system is currently tracking into far northwest Oregon and southwest Washington this morning bringing a noticeable increase to winds and seas. Gale Warnings are current in effect for the inner and outer waters, including the Columbia River Bar, through the midday into the afternoon hours before they sequentially transition to Hazardous Seas Warnings into the late afternoon and evening. Winds and seas have already increased across the waters off the central Oregon coast with Buoy 50 recording gusts of 35-40 knots accompanied by steep 12 ft at 8 second seas. Expect similar conditions to shift further north over the next few hours. While winds begin to decrease late morning, expect wind-driven steep and choppy seas to peak around 13-16 ft, gradually subsiding late Friday afternoon into the evening. By Saturday morning, seas settle back to around 5-7ft at 8-9 seconds. From this point our focus shift to northerly winds increasing over the weekend, strongest Saturday afternoon and evening when wind gusts increase to 20-25 kt, mainly over the outer waters. Back to rather benign weather conditions on Monday as winds stay below 20 knots and seas hold in the 5-8ft range before a slight increase in wave heights on Tuesday into Wednesday (7-10ft) due to the arrival of a WNW swell. -99 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for ORZ108>115-123. Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ121. WA...Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for WAZ203>208. PZ...Gale Warning until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ210-251-252- 271-272. Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210-251-252-271-272. Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for PZZ253-273. Hazardous Seas Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ253-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

974 FXUS66 KMFR 251035 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 335 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Frontal system with light rain presses east of the Cascades this morning with some showers lingering behind it. Rainfall fizzles east of the Cascades. * There is a slight chance of thunderstorms (~15%) north of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide through this afternoon. * Temperatures well below normal (10-20F) today, then remaining a little cooler than normal (5-10F) this weekend. Frost/freezing conditions possible East Side tonight. * Mostly dry weather continues this weekend, though a system may cause isolated showers in NE Cal or near the Warner Mtns later Sunday. && .DISCUSSION...A potent low pressure system is moving onshore into western Washington this morning. This brought a cold front through west side areas last night and the tail end of that will press east of the Cascades this morning. Precipitation was light to moderate, for the most part, with amounts generally ranging from 0.50-1.00 inch along the coast and 0.25-0.50 of an inch just inland and north/west of the Rogue Valley. Curry coast and coastal ranges exceeded 1.00 inch with the big winners Red Mound RAWS (1.63") and Brookings agrimet site (1.64"). Here in Medford, amounts were generally ~0.10 of an inch at the various local gauges (0.13" officially here at the airport as of 3am), though the front is losing its upper support and precip is fizzling as it moves over the Cascades. There could be a click or two as far east as Christmas Valley this morning. Colder air is moving in aloft, so today will be much cooler than recent days, with high temps about 10-20F below normal. This puts us in the upper 60s for highs here, maybe around 70F if we`re lucky. The air mass should be unstable enough to generate some showers through this afternoon from the Cascades/Siskiyous north and west. These will be most numerous along the coast and north of the Umpqua Divide. There is a small chance (~15%) of a thunderstorm up there as well (around Roseburg north). High pressure builds in to the north tonight and this will bring some clearing and a chilly night. Fog could develop in some areas toward sunrise, especially where there was rainfall. Frost/freezing conditions are possible in portions of NE Cal and the East Side. Multiple nights of frost and even freezing conditions in many of those areas thus far in September has pretty much ended the growing season over there. We`ll take a look at this today, but it doesn`t appear we`ll need headlines at this time. Temperatures should rebound a bit this weekend, but will likely remain at least a little below normal. Overall, though, this should make for a couple of pretty nice days. Models are showing another upper trough swinging into the area on Sunday with a low closing off SW of Redding. While precip probabilities are still quite low (15% or less), we wouldn`t be surprised to see a few pop-up showers (at least some cumulus) over the southern and eastern mountains -- Shasta/Trinity and over to the Warners Sunday afternoon/evening. The remainder of the area should remain dry. Upper ridging builds back in Mon/Tue with the next north Pacific frontal system getting strung out to our north Tuesday night. So, this means generally quiet weather will continue into mid next week. Guidance mostly maintains near normal temps, but some suites, mostly the EC members, push us to slightly above normal levels by Wed/Thu (low to mid 80s). NBM probability of MaxT>80F for Medford on Wednesday is 40%. Current forecast has 78F. -Spilde && .AVIATION...25/12Z TAFs...What`s left of the front is pressing east of the Cascades early this morning. Overall, there is a mix of MVFR/VFR conditions with areas of higher terrain obscured. Locally foggy conditions are developing along the south coast. VFR is most prevalent across NorCal and over the east side deserts. Expect gusty winds to continue across the terrain east of the Cascades, but these should tend to ease as the day progresses. Behind the front, conditions will continue to waver between VFR and MVFR through this evening west of the Cascades along with some showers. An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible, generally from around Roseburg north. South of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide, expect clouds to gradually dissipate later this afternoon as the air mass dries out. Tonight, models are showing an area of higher clouds moving in and this should limit low cloud/fog development somewhat. Still, with the recent rainfall and moist ground, there ought to be some local valley IFR/LIFR. -Spilde && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Friday, September 25, 2026... Low pressure will move onshore into the PacNW today. Gusty (even perhaps gale force) S-SW winds continue early this morning north of Reedsport, then will become more NW and ease this afternoon. Very steep seas (10-14 ft north of Brookings) early this morning gradually subside with small craft advisory conditions all areas this afternoon. Seas diminish below advisory levels briefly tonight, but a thermal trough develops quickly. North winds return resulting in another period of steep wind seas and small craft advisory conditions, highest south of Cape Blanco this weekend. These conditions could persist into early next week. -Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ356- 376. Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ350-370. Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ350- 370. && $$ MAS

993 FXUS66 KEKA 250915 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 215 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A passing cold front brings light rain and gusty south winds to Del Norte and northern Humboldt early this morning. * Cooler temperatures will arrive this weekend behind the front, bringing chances for isolated interior frost. && .SYNOPSIS...Extensive cloud cover will continue throughout the region this morning as a cold front brings light rain to Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties early this morning. Colder temperatures will follow through the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...A trough with a compact and deepening surface low continues to clip Northwestern California early this morning. Light to moderate rain will continue for mostly Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties ealy this morning. Areas of Del Norte could see periods of moderate rain with around a 50% chance for over 1 inch of total rainfall. Chances for anything over 0.1 inches quickly lowers to zero south of Cape Mendocino. The interior ridges will see some gusty winds from the stronger winds aloft with the trough. There is a high chance (70%) for gusts to exceed 30 mph for coastal and interior ridges of Del Norte early this morning. Gusty norhterly winds are expected tomorrow after the front completely passes. A colder air mass will arrive overnight tonight. This will bring the potential for frost for some of the coldest interior valleys (particularly Hayfork). Chances for chilly temperatures and frost will continue into at least early next week. A trough will pass through Sunday. This storm system and a shortwave disturbance preceding it Saturday will be mostly dry, but could bring an afternoon shower or two for the interior. The extended outlook looks to remain dry with no chance for wetting rainfall. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFs)... A cold front will continue through Northwest California early this morning. Light to moderate rain is expected for Del Norte and northern Humboldt counties along with periods of gusty southerly winds for KCEC and KACV through about 4AM. The gustiest winds will be for terminals in Del Norte County (up to 25 knots). Ceilings from MVFR to IFR are expected with rainfall. Lower ceilings will linger along the coast and in valleys of Del Norte and Humboldt into mid morning. Northerly winds will begin to pick up through the afternoon and evening tomorrow. && .MARINE...W to SW winds will remain relatively light; however, there is a strong westerly wind fetch around the low which will drive in a quick pulse of steep west northwesterly seas around 9-12 ft at 10-11 seconds for most of the waters. Seas may reach hazardous levels at 12 ft for the far NW waters out around 30 to 60 NM. These seas will increase rapidly this morning and will bring dangerous conditions to small crafts. The northerlies will restrengthen this afternoon, and will be near gale to gale strength in at least the outer waters by Saturday and are likely to continue into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER...Recoveries will be good early this morning, even in areas without rain. Northerly to westerly winds will remain gusty today, although RH trends higher. A pronounced offshore wind surge will then develop tonight, drying out the interior somewhat Saturday with min RH dropping to the low 20s to upper teens. The extended forecast does not include any more chances for wetting rain. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Sunday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

314 FXUS66 KMTR 251148 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 448 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 ...New AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 954 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 - Cooler conditions arrive Friday into the weekend. - Near seasonal temperatures early next week. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1158 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 (Tonight through Saturday) A cool front will sweep southward across the forecast area Friday morning. The front will bring coastal low clouds Friday morning before mixing out during the day. Daytime highs will be cooler with highs ranging from the 60s to lower 70s coastside to the mid 70s and 80s inland. Additional cooling arrives for Saturday with daytime highs in the 60s/70 at the coast, mostly 70s inland except in the 80s across the southern interior of Monterey and San Benito counties. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1158 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 (Saturday night through next Thursday) There`s good agreement in the global models showing a progressive pattern across the Pacific into the western CONUS late in the weekend through mid next week. This is a signature of a strong north hemispheric meridional temperature gradient, robust polar jet stream and subtropical jet stream winds, wind shear and low pressure system(s) development. With both jet streams across the eastern Pacific working in unison through the forecast period, this greatly increases the chance we see reinforcing drier mid- latitude wind flow suppressing tropical activity far to our south during this timeframe. The cooler weather lasts through Monday before we return to a warming trend Tuesday through Thursday. 500 mb ridging returns during this time with breezy to gusty coastal northwesterly winds and dry weather prevailing. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 430 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Hybrid marine layer this morning as some clouds formed ahead of a cold front. ACARs and sounding puts the inversion near 1000-1200 feet. Pretty shallow with IFR to LIFR conditions underneath it. Biggest impacts will be HAF, inside SF Bay, and Salinas Valley. Could see some sunrise clouds arrive for SJC as they filter in from the N. Put a tempo for SJC through 15Z. Behind the front winds increase and mixing out the low clouds. Overall conf is moderate for this morning. Vicinity of SFO...LIFR impacts through 17-18Z. VFR this afternoon. Stronger onshore push behind the front with gusts over 20kt poss. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...LIFR for SNS due to low fog through 16Z. MRY is VFR but nearby clouds have a 30 pct chc of impacts after sunrise. VFR this afternoon. && .MARINE... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 430 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 A passing weak cold front will bring fresh to strong northerly breezes into the weekend. Near gale force gusts are possible across Monterey Bay south to Big Sur Sunday afternoon and evening. Tropical storm activity producing long period southerly swell begins to increase for the beginning of next week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 430 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 Transition day across the district as a weak dry cold front sweeps through. As of this writing the front is just pushing through the N Bay and will traverse through the Central Coast by this afternoon. The passing front will kick off a cooling and moistening trend, which will continue through the weekend. More importantly for a fire weather standpoint the passing front will cause an uptick in winds. Winds will likely be strongest later this afternoon and this evening. Winds ease overnight, but a weak offshore push develops for early Saturday morning. Nothing to be alarmed over as it will be weak and mainly N and E Bay higher terrain. MM && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT Sunday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT Saturday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Canepa LONG TERM....Canepa AVIATION...MM MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

479 FXUS66 KOTX 250853 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 153 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A system brings stronger winds and an increasing risk for rain, thunderstorms, and high mountain snow today and tonight. - Possible frost late Saturday night and Sunday morning over eastern Washington and Idaho Panhandle mountain valleys, as well the outlying areas around the Spokane area and Palouse. && .SYNOPSIS... A strong system today will bring gusty winds, rain and along with chance of thunderstorms, and high mountain snow. Temperatures will trend cooler. A dry, fall like pattern expected for start of next week. Some patchy frost is possible this weekend. && .DISCUSSION... ...WINDY CONDITIONS TODAY... Today and tonight: A low pressure system and cold front coming ashore over western Washington and Oregon this morning will sweep through the Pacific Northwest and bring rains, high mountain snow, a small chance of thunderstorms and windy conditions. This low loses definition inland later this morning, but a secondary surface low deepens over southwest Alberta. That and high pressure nosing into southwest Washington will increase pressure gradients across the Inland Northwest. Overall, expect strong southwest winds around 20-30 mph with gusts around 40-50 mph late this morning through this evening. Winds will start to relax around sunset and surface based instability will erode as surface inversions form. Chances for high mountain snow are limited to the Cascades above 5000 feet late this afternoon through tonight. The cold front passage this morning and early afternoon will bring light rain to much of the region. By sunrise, the band of precipitation will be sweeping through the Columbia Basin. This band of precipitation along and ahead of the cold front will have moved through most of the region by 4 PM, leaving a conditionally unstable air mass behind it. The 500 mb cold pool will overspread the area in the late morning and early afternoon, with temperatures around -19 to -21C. Surface-based CAPE will quickly increase to around 200-500 J/kg into the afternoon. Showers will form across much of the region, bringing the chance (10-30%) for thunderstorms, particularly near the Canadian border. Associated threats would be brief heavy rain (minor burn scar threat in the Cascades), gusty winds up to 50 mph (although background winds will already be strong), small hail, and isolated to scattered lightning. Strong winds from thunderstorm outflows and the broader-scale strong winds will bring a risk for blowing dust across the Columbia Basin this afternoon. The HREF 10th to 90th total precipitation for Moses Lake through early this afternoon is only 0.04-0.12 inches, likely not enough to completely stop blowing dust. There is a 40-60% chance of 1 inch of snow in the Enchantments of southwest Chelan County and Washington Pass through Saturday morning. Temperatures tonight will be much cooler in the low 30s to mid 40s as the post frontal airmass looks dry (PWATs 50-80%). Saturday through Thursday: Conditions look precipitation-free through Monday as the dry airmass over the Inland Northwest stays put. High temperatures will be near normal to slightly below normal in the 60s. Many locations in the northern valleys and even parts of the Spokane area to Palouse will see their first frost or freeze with this pattern, so wrap up those gardens. We will keep a close eye on Saturday night into Sunday morning for frost and we may have to consider highlights. Clouds increase Monday evening with the next system. That system will bring beneficial rains and high mountain snow primarily to the Cascades and north Idaho thanks to strong zonal flow. There is a 40-60% chance of 0.5 inches of rain near the Cascade crest and a 5-10% chance for the Idaho Panhandle from Tuesday morning to Wednesday morning. Conditions look cool, but dry after this system with minor shortwave ridging mid to late week. /DB/Solveig .AVIATION... 12Z TAFS: Shower chances spread east through this morning. Winds will increasing with frontal passage, shifting to southwest with gust 25-40 kt between late morning and early evening. There is a small chance of blowing dust in the Columbia Basin and Spokane area in the afternoon but confidence is low. There is a chance of MVFR cigs (20-40%) for KGEG-KSFF- KPUW-KCOE from 17-21z with the rain coming through. Thunderstorm chances will be found over the northern counties, from Okanogan County to north ID with chances in places like Omak, Colville, Sandpoint and Bonners Ferry. Some chances may also be found over the Columbia Basin, with risk possibly skimming across KGEG to KCOE from 21-03Z, but the risk is too small to include in the TAFs. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions. Moderate to high confidence in -ra over EAT/MWH this morning, expanding to eastern TAF sites after 16-18Z through about 20-22Z. Low to moderate confidence in MVFR conditions at KGEG-KSFF-KCOE-KPUW. Low confidence in -tsra at TAF sites. /Solveig ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 63 42 62 38 66 40 / 80 20 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 62 42 60 38 64 40 / 90 30 0 0 0 0 Pullman 63 39 59 35 64 38 / 80 10 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 70 45 65 43 69 45 / 60 10 0 0 0 0 Colville 64 34 64 31 68 32 / 80 50 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 62 38 57 34 64 36 / 90 70 10 0 0 0 Kellogg 62 41 56 36 62 39 / 90 40 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 66 40 65 38 68 39 / 80 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 66 47 64 46 66 47 / 80 10 0 0 0 0 Omak 64 41 64 40 66 41 / 80 40 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties-Moses Lake Area- Northeast Blue Mountains-Spokane Area-Upper Columbia Basin-Washington Palouse-Waterville Plateau. ID...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT this evening for Coeur d`Alene Area-Idaho Palouse. && $$

665 FXUS66 KPDT 251125 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 425 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Widespread rain showers and breezy to windy conditions will develop throughout today, with an isolated thunderstorm or two in the Washington Cascades - Wind Advisories in effect today from Central Oregon to the Lower Columbia Basin - Dry conditions and light winds return over the weekend, then a return of periodic light showers in the Cascades next week && .DISCUSSION...Satellite and radar imagery tonight show a surface low and upper trough swinging into the PacNW, with a cold front pushing a band of rain across the Cascade east slopes. Today through Sunday: The north/south oriented band of rain leading the cold front and surface low will continue to push east this morning and exit in the afternoon. Post frontal showers will continue across the Cascade crest and east slopes thanks to support from the upper trough passage, but will diminish through the evening hours as the trough exits to the northeast. There remains a widespread 60-90% chance of at least measurable rain across much of the forecast area today, with only a 30-45% chance of 0.25 inches in the northern Blues and a 65-95% chance of 0.5 inches along the Cascade crest and east slopes. In addition to precipitation, the upper trough and surface low passage will bring increasing west to southwest winds across the forecast area. Winds will be 25-35 mph with gusts 35-50 mph through the Cascade gaps, central OR, and into the Columbia Basin and adjacent foothills/valleys. Winds 15-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph are expected in most other locations, with stronger winds along the Cascade Crest. Surface winds will be supported by a 40-50kt low level jet that will mix down across portions of the Columbia Basin this afternoon. Wind advisories are in effect across central/north central OR, Columbia Basin/Gorge, Yakima Valley, and the Blue Mountain foothills from 8AM to 11PM today. Shower activity and windy conditions will diminish tonight into Saturday as the upper trough and surface low exit to the northeast. Deterministic and ensemble guidance continue to depict weak broad troughing developing offshore the PacNW Saturday, then sliding across the region through Sunday. The trough passage will lack moisture and mid to upper level jet support, resulting in dry conditions with light winds. It will however continue to support below normal temperatures across the region, with afternoon highs in the 60s. While widespread overnight freezing temperatures (outside of the mountain zones) are not expected to develop, areas of the Wallowa valley and central OR will see a 25-65% chance of freezing morning temperatures Saturday. The make or break for freezing temperatures will be cloud cover in the overnight and early morning hours, though confidence is low (25-35%) in extent of cloud cover for tomorrow morning. Monday through Thursday: Ensemble guidance is in good agreement of mostly zonal flow developing over the PacNW as an upper trough develops over AK and northern BC and ridging out in the eastern Pacific through Tuesday. While Monday will remain mostly dry, ensemble cluster solutions hint at a shortwave and attendant weak frontal passage bringing light rain showers to the Cascade crest and east slopes throughout Tuesday, though about 30-45% of cluster members bring light rain to the northern Blues latter half of Tuesday. Winds are favored to remain light to locally breezy with the system passage Tuesday (confidence 60-65%). Disagreement grows amongst ensemble members mid week in the evolution of the synoptic pattern. Solutions range from ridging Wednesday then upper trough passage Thursday to slow moving troughing Wednesday into Thursday. Either solutions would favor more mountain precipitation, but with plenty of disagreement amongst the members, confidence is low (20-25%) in extent, timing, and amounts of precipitation next week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...VFR conditions to prevail through the period. Cold front passage will continue to bring rain shower impacts to all sites this morning, with showers expected to end in western sites around 13-14Z, and showers to impact sites PSC/PDT/ALW between 12Z to 16-18Z. Winds will increase through this morning and persist through the afternoon, with winds generally 15-25kts and gusts 30-40kts. Winds will decrease in the evening across most sites, though sites PDT/ALW will see breezy winds persist to around 6-8Z. While not included in the current TAF, there is a chance (50-70%) that gusts may periodically reach 40kts or greater at site PSC between 18Z-00Z. Will continue to monitor incoming guidance, as an airport weather warning may be warranted during that period. Lawhorn/82 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 69 40 65 41 / 90 0 0 0 ALW 69 45 66 44 / 90 10 0 0 PSC 72 43 69 41 / 70 0 0 0 YKM 65 40 64 40 / 30 0 0 0 HRI 72 43 68 40 / 80 0 0 0 ELN 61 36 60 36 / 50 10 0 0 RDM 59 31 64 33 / 10 0 0 0 LGD 66 38 64 38 / 60 0 0 0 GCD 66 37 67 40 / 50 0 0 0 DLS 66 45 68 45 / 60 10 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ024-027-521. Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for WAZ028-029. OR...Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM PDT this evening for ORZ041-044-507-508-510. Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT this afternoon for ORZ511. && $$ DISCUSSION...82 AVIATION...82

770 FXUS65 KREV 250804 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 104 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Strong wind gusts are expected by the late morning through the evening due to a dry cold front, leading to elevated fire weather concerns. * A system will bring cooler temperatures with highs dropping between 5 to 10 degrees below average by Sunday and Monday. * There is a chance for precipitation in western NV and the eastern Sierra Sunday night into Monday afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... A dry cold front is still poised to move through the region today. Winds as of midnight are gusting between 40-45 mph on the ridges, and will continue to increase into the morning. Strong southwest winds will affect the area through the evening, with ridgetop gusts between 65-75 mph. Meanwhile, wind gusts between 30-40 mph will be common for most locations north of US-50 in western NV, as well as the eastern Sierra from Plumas County south through the Tahoe Basin. Wind-prone locations along US-395 in Mono County and the Sierra Front could see gusts up to 45 mph. For that reason, Lake Wind Advisories are in effect for several area lakes, including Tahoe and Pyramid. Also, the combination of gusty winds and low humidity will create critical fire-weather concerns this afternoon and evening; see the Fire Weather Discussion below for details. Finally, smoke from the Dome Fire SW of Yosemite may result in areas of smoke and haze in Mono County throughout the day. Ensembles and deterministic model runs all show a trough digging along the west coast on Sunday. This then forms into an upper low that moves into southern NV by late Monday. Latest blended guidance has increased precipitation chances compared to prior runs. Right now, we have a 20-40% chance of light precipitation in western NV and the eastern Sierra Sunday night into Monday afternoon. Snow levels with this colder low will drop to around 8,500 feet, with little to no snow accumulation expected. Temperatures for Sunday and Monday will drop across the region, with high temperatures between 5 to 10 degrees below average. Also, Sierra valleys on Monday and Tuesday morning have likely chances for below freezing temperatures. Ensembles indicate a ridge pattern moving in by the middle of next week. This will introduce a warming trend, with temperatures back above average by Wednesday. Dry weather looks to persist Tuesday through the end of the 7-day forecast period next Friday. -McKellar && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail today. Winds will continue to strengthen across the northern Sierra through the morning, with FL100 winds of 40-45kts resulting in increased mountain wave turbulence and LLWS through at least 18Z this morning. Eastern Sierra and western NV terminals will have increasing W-SW winds sustained between 15-20 kts with gusts of 25-35 kts. The strongest winds are expected between 18Z to 03Z. Areas of blowing dust are possible this afternoon for KNFL and KLOL, with visibilities possible down to 6SM. -McKellar && .FIRE WEATHER... Strong winds are expected this afternoon ahead of a dry cold front. Southwest gusts of 30 to 40 mph are most likely north of US-50, while wind-prone locations along US-395 in Mono County and the Sierra Front could see gusts up to 45 mph. Minimum RH will increase slightly today, particularly across NE California and far N.Washoe County where the Fire Weather Watch has been cancelled due to these higher RH, but W.Nevada areas have been upgraded to Red Flag Warnings due lower RH expected. Fuentes && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday NVZ002>004. Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM PDT Friday NVZ420-421. Red Flag Warning from noon to 10 PM PDT Friday NVZ423-429. CA...Lake Wind Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday CAZ071>073. && $$

829 FXUS66 KSTO 242156 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 256 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Periods of Elevated Fire Weather Conditions for portions of interior NorCal into early next week due to breezy winds and low humidities. - Areas of Moderate HeatRisk in the Northern San Joaquin Valley into this evening. - Low chances (around 10%) for isolated showers for northwestern Shasta County tonight into Friday. Otherwise, primarily dry weather continues into next week. - Periods of breezy to gusty winds Friday through early next week. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today-Tonight (9/24)... Sunny skies are being observed across Northern California this afternoon, with just some thin cirrus clouds ahead an approaching trough with a weakening cold front. Temperatures for the week peak today, this afternoon currently reaching the upper 80s to low 90s across the Valley, warmest in the northern San Joaquin Valley, where there are areas of Moderate HeatRisk. Winds are light now, but onshore flow will increase in the Delta and over the mountains this evening tonight as a trough passes to the north, through the Pacific Northwest. While the trough passage will be dry for the vast majority of the area, there is a low, nonzero chance (around 10%) of isolated showers along the northwestern edges of Shasta County this evening into early Friday. Most of the rain is expected to remain farther north and west. ...Friday-Sunday (9/25-9/27)... The trough will bring additional periods of breezy to gusty winds Friday into Saturday, with winds mainly out of the west- southwest on Friday, then shifting out of the north northeast on Saturday for the northern and central Sacramento Valley and adjacent mountains and foothills, with gusts in those areas 20 to 30 mph. On Saturday the combination of gusty winds and low afternoon humidity percents in the upper teens to low 20s bring a several hours of elevated fire weather conditions. Additional periods of breezy to gusty southerly flow area expected on Sunday as the trough deepens and pushes through Northern California, mainly over the Sierra. Models continue to favor a continued dry pattern, though the pattern suggests the we can`t rule out the possibility of stray mountain showers. ...Monday-Wednesday (9/28-9/30)... Periods of breezy northerly flow are forecast to develop on Monday through the Sacramento Valley as the aforementioned trough tracks over the Desert Southwest, with downsloping northeasterly to easterly winds over the Sierra. Breezy north winds through the Valley and downsloping winds in the Sierra are favored on Tuesday as well. These will bring the potential for more significant elevated fire weather conditions. Temperatures remain on track to trend warmer through the week as weak ridging builds over interior NorCal. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions continue through the rest of today and into tonight, with mostly clear skies. Sustained winds will be generally less than 12 kts. Breezier Delta winds are expected tonight into Friday through 18Z. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

679 FXUS65 KMSO 250852 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 252 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Cold front arrives today bringing gusty winds to northwest Montana and hazardous, choppy conditions on Flathead Lake. - Cutoff low this weekend brings rain and possibly some snow showers to northwest Montana and Glacier National Park. Satellite and radar imagery early this morning place the approaching cold front along the Cascade crest. The front will push eastward across the Northern Rockies today, driven by an upper-level cutoff low migrating into the region through Saturday. High-resolution ensemble guidance (HREF) remains steady regarding wind impacts behind the frontal boundary today. Strongest surface gusts remain focused along a corridor from Kila and Happy`s Inn south toward Hot Springs, where gusts over 40 mph are expected. Wind will also cause choppy, hazardous conditions on Flathead Lake where the Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect. Moisture tap with this system is relatively modest. The bulk of precipitation will set up across Clearwater County, Idaho up through northwest Montana, with storm total rainfall generally remaining under 0.50 inches. Cold air filtering in behind the front will drag freezing levels down over the weekend; latest guidance maintains roughly a 30 percent chance of snow at Logan Pass. While snow accumulations will be light and elevation- dependent, raw, cold, and wet conditions in the Glacier National Park backcountry will pose hypothermia risks for outdoor recreationists. As the upper low departs, the Northern Rockies will settle into a westerly flow regime through mid-week. Model guidance is in good agreement that a secondary low pressure system will track well to our south, moving across California and the Great Basin into the Central Plains, keeping weather across western Montana and north- central Idaho relatively benign through Thursday. By late next week and into next weekend, long-range ensembles are beginning to trend toward a deeper upper-level trough impacting the Northern Rockies. If this trend holds, it will bring a return of cooler temperatures and increased shower activity to start the first weekend of October. && .AVIATION...A cold front currently along the Cascades will track east across the region today. Expect increasing mechanical turbulence, surface wind gusts, and mountain obscurationsparticularly over North-Central Idaho and Northwest Montana. Showers will lower ceilings and visibilities at KGPI and surrounding airfields by late afternoon/evening, with freezing levels lowering to near 6,000 ft MSL by Saturday morning. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to midnight MDT tonight for Flathead/Mission Valleys...Kootenai/Cabinet Region. ID...None. && $$

128 FXUS65 KBOI 251152 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 552 AM MDT Fri Sep 25 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - A strong cold front will bring gusty winds and cooler temperatures area-wide today, with isolated showers for the north. - Temperatures will average 10 degrees below normal on Saturday. - A weak low pressure system will support shower chances near the NV border and central Idaho Sunday. - Seasonable temperatures returning next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Sunday Night/... Issued 303 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026 A pronounced low pressure system is currently moving through western Washington and Oregon early this morning and will continue into eastern Oregon and Idaho later today. The accompanying cold front will arrive in east Oregon by mid morning, and into southwest and central Idaho by this afternoon and evening. Rain showers will move along the front, remaining limited to northeast OR and w-central ID. However, chances for measurable rainfall are relatively low (10-25%). Winds will transition from southeast-southwest to west-northwest with the frontal passage, with gusts increasing to 25-35 mph across the area. Pockets of 40 mph can be expected in portions of the Upper Treasure Valley and the higher terrain of southwest/central Idaho. Max temperatures will cool as much as 15-20 degrees in the Oregon zones today compared to yesterday. Due to the later arrival of the front, the Idaho zones will have 5-15 degrees of cooling today, then additional 5-15 degrees of cooling for Saturday. Winds will gradually taper off tonight as the trough exits toward the northeast, with drier, cool, and mostly cloudy weather prevailing on Saturday. A weak, elongated trough will then approach on Sunday and generate a slight chance of showers near the Nevada border and over central Idaho through Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /Monday through Friday/... Issued 303 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026 The aforementioned trough will exit Monday, allowing temperatures to rebound to near-normal values through much of the week as westerly flow develops aloft. Benign conditions will proceed through at least Thursday as the storm track remains north of the area. Long range ensemble members are signaling another cool-down toward the end of the week as 1000-500mb thicknesses gradually lower. However, guidance continues to keep moisture out of the forecast area through the extended period. && .AVIATION /12Z Friday through Saturday/... Issued 550 AM MDT FRI SEP 25 2026 VFR. Cold front will move from W to E today, bringing gusty winds area-wide. Isolated showers and lower ceilings will pass through northeast OR and w-central ID late morning through evening, with light rain or virga for KBNO/KBKE/KMYL. Surface winds: S-SE 5-15 kt with 15-25 kt gusts. Shifting to SW-NW 10-20 kt with 20-35 kt gusts with front. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 20-40 kt, gradually decreasing by this evening. Pockets of LLWS through mid morning. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: S-SE 7-14 kt with occasional gusts near 20 kt through morning. Cold front will move through early afternoon, shifting winds to NW 12-20 kt with 25-30 kt gusts. Weekend Outlook...VFR with high/mid level ceilings Saturday and Sunday. Isolated showers near NV border and over central ID mtns Sunday. Surface winds: NW 5-15 kt Saturday, and NW 5-20 kt Sunday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....SH SHORT TERM...SH LONG TERM....SH

459 FXUS65 KLKN 250855 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 155 AM PDT Fri Sep 25 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Fair weather continues through the end of the week with afternoon breezes. Much stronger winds are in store Friday and Saturday * Temperatures will gradually cool each afternoon beginning Friday and lasting through the weekend. * A 10% to 40% percent probability for rain showers expected Monday but amounts will be on the light side. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through next Friday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Upper pattern continues to be quiet, and looks to remain quiet through Sunday, as models show a very weak and broad scale flow over the west, punctuated by a shallow trough over southern NV, and the lower Colorado river valley, and by weak riding over northern NV and ID. This flow setup looks to keep Nevada dry for the next several days, however with the westerly Jet just to the north, models continue to show the pressure gradient over northern Nevada tightening over recent runs. This will keep elevated fire weather conditions as westerly winds of 10 MPH to 20 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH will possible over northern Humboldt and Elko counties through Saturday. Elsewhere winds will be lighter out of the W-SW at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25 MPH possible. Sunday the stronger winds shift into central Nevada as a pacific trough approaches, shifting elevated to near critical fire weather concerns into White Pine county. Monday, models show that northern stream upper level trough moving through Nevada, The GFS and ECMWF continue to trend farther south with the track of the trough with the trough with this system, while continuing to depict a fast moving system with not much moisture for Nevada, however this trough will tap into tropical moisture from Hurricane Polo, just not until it departs NV. There will still be a 10% to 40% chance for light isolated showers accompanying trough passage Monday afternoon and evening, however the best chances at seeing rain will be across central Nevada. Tuesday and Wednesday shortwave ridging returns bringing another period of quiet weather conditions back to the Silver State. Model agreement dissipates Thursday, as the GFS favors a zonal flow pattern over the west, while the ECMWF wants to build a strong long wave ridge over the southwestern US. Temperature wise Highs peak Friday afternoon with temperatures in the mid to upper 80s. Saturday through Tuesday a cooling trend will see temperatures falling into the mid 70s for highs. Wednesday will see another warming trend to finish out the week with highs returning to the mid 80s. Lows will range in the mid to upper 40s for the first half of the forecast period, cooling into the mid to upper 30s by middle of next week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: There is high confidence in a much drier pattern lasting through Sunday of next week. There is low confidence in the potential for a 10% to 40% chance for isolated showers across Nevada as an upper trough passes through Monday of next week. There is moderate confidence in the return of upper level ridging for the middle of next week restoring quiet and dry pattern over Nevada. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions look to be the primary flight conditions through Saturday morning afternoon. Winds will be light to breezy across most of central and northern Nevada, including all terminals, with W to SW winds of 5KT to 15 KT with gusts up to 25 KT possible. Winds across far northern Nevada will be stronger out of the west at 10KT to 20KT with gust to 30KT possible. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire Weather conditions will remain elevated to near critical for the northern parts of fire zones 437, 438, 469, and 470 through Sunday, as the pressure gradient look to remain tighter, leading to stronger winds during the afternoon. Winds across the above zones will run out of the west to SW at 10 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 35 MPH whereas SW winds will be lighter to the south at 5 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH possible. Temperatures look to warm into the mid 80s through Friday, with a cooling trend beginning Saturday through next Tuesday with highs dropping into the mid 70s. Wednesday will see another warming trend get under way as highs return back to the mid 80s. Monday a weak upper trough passing through Nevada may bring a low 10% to 40% chance for isolated showers, model trends show that central Nevada seeing the highest chances for measurable precipitation as amounts at this time still look light with only a trace to 0.15 of rainfall possible for select locations. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...98 AVIATION...98 FIRE WEATHER...98