000 FXUS66 KSEW 070251 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 751 PM PDT Thu May 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS...A cold front over Western Washington this afternoon will move inland overnight. A trough will move through the area Friday with a cool air mass, onshore flow, and showers. Isolated thunderstorms are possible. A weak weather system will brush the area over the weekend before high pressure builds for the first half of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...No major forecast updates have been made this evening, the exception being a short fused Gale Warning in portions of the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Details can be found in the marine section of the discussion below. Shower activity in the wake of the front this afternoon and evening are primarily in the Cascades and in portions of Snohomish county. Convergence zone activity from Snohomish County northward is possible into the overnight hours. At this time, small hail and a lightning strike or two cannot be ruled out. The dynamics for thunderstorm activity do look more favorable by tomorrow afternoon. Tomorrow, as the upper level trough moves through the area, conditions for thunderstorms will be slightly more favorable in a few ways. One, the mid to upper levels will be colder, which is a good step for the instability needed for thunderstorm development. Two, the upper level trough is somewhat negatively tilted which will provide some level of shear for potential thunderstorms to act on. Additionally, there is CAPE in the area, not much, but enough to get some cells going in the afternoon tomorrow. Convergence zone activity starting over the northern portions of Puget Sound, drifting south into Friday afternoon could be where the bulk of the thunderstorm activity occurs. Some of the hi-res model guidance outputs are suggestive of some cells initiating over the Kitsap Peninsula and drifting east, but more details will likely be focused in on overnight as new model runs come in. As for the rest of the weekend, weak high pressure looks to build in by Saturday, for partly sunny skies and drier conditions. Another weak system may brush the area on Sunday along the periphery of the ridge, but may fall apart upon arriving onshore. Details to come. Kristell .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Overall there is pretty good agreement that Monday and Tuesday will be the sunnier warmer days next week and that Wednesday and Thursday are not great bets for sunny warm weather. In fact, the ridging we do get early in the week is nothing to write home about--overall, next week looks a lot like typical May weather and marine layer clouds might be with us for the late night and morning hours--with clearing for the afternoon and evening. There are no strong weather systems that are likely to affect the region, but a little drippy weather in the morning hours-- especially after midweek is something to think about putting in the forecast at some point. 19 && .AVIATION...Current conditions this evening include SCT-BKN VFR ceilings across the majority of W WA, with a pocket of clearing around Southern and Central Puget Sound. Most of the rain extends along the west slopes of the Cascades and up towards KCLM and KBLI. Generally expect VFR to dominate through much of the overnight period, gradually lowering to MVFR towards sunrise Friday as scattered showers increase in coverage. A PSCZ appears possible over Snohomish Co late tonight and would likely affect KPAE if it materializes. Scattered showers will continue Friday, with a thunderstorm possible after ~18z. Ceilings should rise back to VFR during the afternoon. Gusty S wind should relax shortly after sunset, generally sustained 8-12kts overnight, with conditions becoming breezy again Friday afternoon 10-15kts with gusts around 20kts. KSEA...Showers have pushed east this evening but will increase again in coverage overnight. VFR the predominant category overnight, with MVFR towards daybreak Friday and thru the morning. PSCZ possible late tonight into Friday morning to the N of the airfield. A thunderstorm may develop or pass by in the vicinity Friday afternoon, but coverage and confidence not high enough for mention in the TAF. Winds around 10kts overnight, increasing towards 15kts with gusts around 20kts Friday afternoon out of the S/SW. Kovacik && .MARINE...The most recent surface analysis this evening reveals that the cold front that swept through the local area today is now located over E WA, with high pressure building quickly in its wake over W WA from off the Pacific. The pressure gradient has noticeably strengthened between these two features this evening and this has prompted the issuance of a short-fuse Gale Warning for the Central and Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca. A handful of marine observations within this portion of the Strait has suggested gusts between 34-40 kts over the last several hours. The Gale Warning is set to remain in effect thru 9PM where thereafter, the pressure gradient should relax. A Small Craft Advisory will then take the place of the Gale Warning thru 09z Friday, with a SCA also in place for the adjacent waters of Admiralty Inlet and the Northern Inland Waters. The Coastal Waters are also expected to continue to experience pockets of SCA level winds through 12z Friday, with swells building into Friday around 8-9ft and remaining there through the day. Model guidance is suggestive of a rather strong pressure gradient again on Friday evening, and this could warrant another Gale Warning for the Central and East Strait. The night shift will evaluate this further but at least a higher-end SCA is likely to be issued in coming forecast updates. Kovacik && .HYDROLOGY...The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated as needed until then. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Friday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Gale Warning until 9 PM PDT this evening for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Friday for Admiralty Inlet- Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Puget Sound and Hood Canal. && $$ www.weather.gov/seattle

000 FXUS66 KPQR 070439 AAB AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 938 PM PDT Thu May 6 2021 Updated Aviation and Marine discussions .UPDATE...Made a few adjustments to the forecast this evening, mainly to take out the mention of thunder for most of our inland areas tonight into Friday morning. Without any lightning to speak of being detected within the cold pool, it is tough to justify much lightning at all in our forecast, especially inland during the coolest hours of the night and morning. Based on 18z NAM and GFS, the core of cold air aloft and thus the greatest instability appears to be headed for the Olympic Peninsula and Puget Sound. Will maintain the mention of thunder for portions of SW Washington and the eastern PDX metro Friday afternoon, as diurnal surface heating should provide the best chances although the coldest air aloft will already be crossing the Cascades at that point. Weagle && .SYNOPSIS...Today`s cold front will move east of the Cascades by mid-evening. Low pressure and another cold front cross the region Friday to bring additional showers and possible thunderstorms. High pressure starts to build beginning Saturday, but another very weak front will cross the region Sunday for a final round of potential showers. The upper high then builds in earnest Monday through at least Wednesday for dry weather and bringing temperatures near to, and slightly above, normal. && .SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...No significant surprises as the anticipated cold front is currently aligned with roughly I-5. Showers and breezy winds accompanied the front and will see this boundary continue to push eastward this afternoon and evening. There is a very narrow secondary boundary trailing just along the coast now, also moving east. It has shown brief moments of convective enhancement and would not be surprised to see a one hit wonder bit of lightning come out of it. This would easily be the exception rather than the rule. Broad low pressure over the NE Pac will drift across the PacNW tonight and Friday bringing cooling temperatures aloft. As the trough axis nears the coast late tonight and Friday, may get enough dynamic enhancement to produce a better chance of thunderstorms mainly north of a Tillamook to Salem line, including the Portland Metro. Am not super enthused about these chances as implied by the NBM as equilibrium levels stay somewhat limited in depth, but also do not have strong reasons to go against the calibrated guidance either. As such, will keep the suggested thunderstorm mention in the forecast for our northern areas through early Friday evening. Snow levels will also drop to around 3500 feet later tonight with a couple inches of snow possible under a heavier shower. The upper trough departs late Friday as an upper ridge tries to assert it`s influence through Sunday. However, weak shortwaves cross from the northwest to southeast to hold it at bay and also bring modest rain chances but generally minimal qpf amounts. Temperatures through this weekend will be on the cooler side of normal. /JBonk .LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday...Currently not much debate between the operational models and their supporting ensemble casts. They all agree on high pressure progressing east from off the Pacific, though they differ in the details on the strength of the ridging. Regardless, next week`s temperatures will start on the cooler side of normal to then build to a few degrees on the warmer side of normal. Also would expect repeating periods of afternoon and evening onshore sea breezes to work through the Coast Range for pseudo-summer diurnal wind patterns. /JBonk && .AVIATION...Post-frontal showers now mainly over the Cascades and offshore. VFR conditions prevailing, but Cascades will likely remain mostly obscured as westerly flow continues through Friday. Next batch of more organized showers will arrive to the coast 06-09Z and likely bring occasional MVFR conditions with heavier showers. These showers spread inland overnight as well but expect primarily VFR conditions. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms for the north Oregon coast and south WA coast later tonight through Fri afternoon, and a slight chance for thunderstorms inland Fri afternoon and north of about KUAO. Showers decrease Fri evening as high pressure briefly builds into the region. Wind westerly generally 10 kt or less but gustier winds towards the east end of the Gorge this evening. For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with cigs 4000-7000 ft expected. Will see with showers increasing after 09Z, then a slight chance for thunderstorms after 18Z. Showers tapering off Fri evening as high pressure builds into the region. Westerly winds expected to prevail tonight but generally below 10 kt, winds pickup a little Fri later morning to around 10-13 kt and may gust to 15-20 kt briefly Fri afternoon. && .MARINE...Winds easing over the waters this evening, but will pick up some overnight as the next batch of showers move in. But do not expect winds to reach advisory criteria. However steep waves have not quite gone away. Buoy 46243 off the Columbia River mouth around 7 feet at 7 seconds so will have an advisory for that. Seas remain 6 to 8 ft with a dominate period of near 10 seconds through Friday then slowly falling into the 4 to 6 ft through the weekend. /42 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Friday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM. && $$ Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

000 FXUS66 KMFR 070520 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1020 PM PDT Thu May 6 2021 .UPDATE...Updated Aviation section for the 06z TAFs and an updated Marine discussion. && .UPDATE... An update was made to the forecast to issue a Freeze Watch out for some outlying colder valleys and mid-elevations of the Jackson County for Friday night into Saturday morning. Frost wording was also added to the forecast for that same time period for where we expect frost. It should be noted that frost and freezing temperatures are still climatologically normal for areas east of the Cascades and that frost is generally possible even in Medford through approximately Mother`s Day, and sometimes later. Therefore, there are many areas where we do not issue Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings this early in the growing season. Generally speaking, under mostly clear skies, frost becomes a concern for locations where the forecast minimum temperature is 38 or lower, but especially where it`s at or below 36. Freezing conditions are expected when the minimum temperature is at or below 32, but becomes more of an impact the colder it gets. Also, a duration of 3 hours or more at those critical temperatures yields a greater impact than the true overnight to morning minimum. The Wind Advisory that had been in effect for areas east of the Cascades through 11 PM PDT has also been cancelled, as winds have fallen below advisory criteria (gust to 45 mph or higher) and winds are expected to diminish. DISCUSSION... Today`s cold front did much as was expected, dropping up to about a quarter of an inch of rainfall at a few sites in the Coast Range and less than a tenth of an inch at other locations that received measurable rain. Amounts were generally higher in Curry County than in other areas, with most locations there between 0.10" and 0.26". It was also quite breezy to windy, with the Wind Advisory verifying at several locations east of the Cascades. Temperatures were also quite a bit cooler west of the Cascades that yesterday afternoon by 10 to 30 degrees and some cooling began on the east side. Tonight into Friday morning the remnants of the frontal system will bring clouds and some spotty, light, orographic precipitation from the Cascades westward. Cloud cover and wind should keep temperatures from cooling off too much. Altogether, this weekend is still on track to be pleasantly cool for most of us, breezy in the afternoons to early evening, and continued dry. However, it will be quite chilly with frost and/or freezing conditions in many areas Friday night into Saturday morning. So, those getting an early start on summer plantings should take precautions to avoid plant damage. The next real possibility of rainfall appears to be out around mid-month. ~BTL For the 07/06Z TAF Cycle...Winds will be gusty through this evening, mostly along and east of the Cascades. Areas of MVFR and terrain obscuration will persist from the Cascades west to the Coast Range. All the TAF locations and valley areas should stay VFR through TAF period. Friday afternoon, gusty north winds will be present across the whole region. -Miles && .MARINE...Updated 1015 PM PDT Thursday 06 May 2021...A weak front that moved onshore this morning has left behind west to northwest winds of 10 to 20 kts. These winds are not expected to change much overnight. A thermal trough will develop near the coast Friday afternoon, bringing gusty north winds and choppy seas to areas south of Cape Blanco. Gusts could approach gale force south of Pistol River, but will be rare if they occur at all. There could also be spotty very steep, hazardous seas in the brookings area, but again, these conditions should be rare if they occur at all. Choppy and steep wind-driven seas will persist through the weekend and most of next week. -Miles PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 238 PM PDT Thu May 6 2021/ DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows the cold front positioned just inland away from the coast. Pressure rises are being observed at the coast with winds shifting from the south to southwest. The front will continue to march it`s way east west of the Cascades this afternoon and this evening east of the Cascades. Winds are already increasing in several locations east of the Cascades and Shasta Valley. Precipitation has occurred with many locations along the coast and coastal mountains getting some measurable rain. In fact, the highest totals so far have been these areas. The big winner so far has been Gold Beach with 0.23 of an inch, followed by Quail Prairie with 0.22 of an inch, Red Mound 0.20 of an inch and Flynn Prairie with 0.18 of an inch. Unfortunately, as is typical with these narrow bands of precipitation and frontal systems, the front will lose it`s steam with respect to precipitation coverage and amounts as it pushes further inland. Despite this, spotty light precipitation is still likely for portions of Josephine, Douglas and north to northwest Jackson county, but amounts will be less compared to the coast and coastal mountains. Gusty winds are likely into this evening east of the Cascades with 700mb winds between 25 ad 35 kts with even stronger winds above 700mb that could mix down near the surface and a wind advisory remains in effect. Gusty breezes are also expected in the Rogue Valley and Shasta Valley into early this evening, before diminishing. Tonight, the upper trough will approach, north of the area with the best chance for precipitation remaining north of the Umpqua Divide and northern Cascades. Elsewhere its expected to remain dry with gusty breezes near and at the ridges east of the Cascades. Upslope flow along the west facing slopes of the Cascades and Siskiyous will result in cloud cover, with a sprinkle or two possible due to the upslope flow, but probably not enough to measure. The upper trough will swing east of the of the area Friday afternoon. Still could not rule out spotty light precipitation north of the Umpqua Divide in the morning, otherwise the trend is for drying conditions. We`ll have another day of breezy winds Friday afternoon and evening for most locations with winds a bit stronger east of the Cascades, but were not expecting them to reach advisory criteria. Dry weather and near normal temperatures are expected over the forecast area as upper level northwest flow dominates the region. A few showers are expected to pass just to the north of the area on Sunday morning. This will result in a temperature drop of a few degrees between Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon. An upper level ridge of high pressure extending from the CA coastline up to the Gulf of Alaska will nudge east over the PacNW resulting in a significant warming trend over the region Monday through mid week. As of now...Wednesday looks to be the warmest day of the week...with temperatures generally 10 to 15 degrees above normal for the middle of May. Along with a warming trend...the region is expected to remain dry...with no rain in sight. In fact...according to the Climate Prediction Center`s 6 to 10 day outlook...valid from May 12th through the 16th...the area is expected to remain dry with above normal temperatures. All hope is not lost however...as quite a few ensemble members from both the GFS and the ECMWF are indicating a change in the weather pattern by next weekend. Additionally...the Climate Prediction Center`s 8 to 14 day outlook is also keying on this...calling for below normal temperatures and normal precipitation. We will continue to watch this closely over the next week or so! -MAP/CCR && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Freeze Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for ORZ026. CA...None. Pacific Coastal Waters...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 5 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376. $$

000 FXUS66 KEKA 062137 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 237 PM PDT Thu May 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS...A cold front will yield light precipitation over Del Norte and northern Humboldt Counties this evening, as well as relatively cool temperatures across the interior through Friday. Otherwise, gusty north winds will develop on Friday and persist through Sunday. That will be followed by increasing heat across interior valleys next week. && .DISCUSSION...A cold front has progressed onshore during the past 6 hours. However, large-scale ascent is weak, and saturation is mainly confined to the lowest 3000 feet MSL. Thus, precipitation observed from Humboldt Bay northward to Del Norte County has mainly been in the form of drizzle. Drizzle will become increasingly confined to the windward slopes of the King Range this evening, and then dissipate late tonight. Otherwise, clear skies over the interior and a cool deep-layer airmass will favor patchy frost development across wind sheltered valleys in Humboldt, Trinity, and northern Mendocino Counties. The upper flow regime over NRN CA is forecast to transition to northwesterly during Friday as a trough moves east of the region and a ridge amplifies over the NERN PAC. Surface high pressure will subsequently build over Oregon and the Great Basin resulting in gusty north winds persisting through Sunday. At this time, the majority of gusts are expected to reside in the 20 to 40 mph range (though a few higher gusts will be likely across exposed ridges). Thus, a wind advisory doesn`t appear necessary...but will continue to monitor. North to occasionally northeast boundary layer flow will promote moderating temperatures this weekend into the middle of next week. 850 mb temperatures are forecast to warm into the mid to upper teens Celsius on Tuesday and Wednesday, which will support highs in the low 90s F for locations such as Ukiah and Weaverville. However, overnight low temperatures in the 40s will preclude a more substantial heat risk threat. Garner && .AVIATION...Stratus briefly lifted this morning ahead of an approaching weak front, then conditions quickly deteriorated as the front pushed onshore. Flying conditions should slowly improve this afternoon and tonight as the front exits to the east. VFR and gusty northerlies build in its wake Friday morning, with overnight offshores suppressing low cloud formation through much of the weekend. Northerlies just above the surface look to accelerate late tonight over Mendocino county while valley locations likely decouple, so am currently expecting LLWS to develop late tonight and early Friday for KUKI. && .MARINE...Light northerlies return this evening in the wake of a drizzle storm and accelerate Friday into the weekend, building to gale force Friday morning in the southern waters then spreading to the northern outers Friday afternoon and evening. Respective gale warnings continues in response. Locally generated seas will build back in on Friday as well. These steep seas are expected to propagate into much the northern inners Friday night, thus the haz seas warning remains in place through early Saturday morning. Northerly winds are expected to continue for much of the waters for the foreseeable future, with near gales to gales continuing well into early next week. && .FIRE WEATHER...North winds gusting from 20 to 40 mph will be collocated with afternoon RH values in the teens over southern and eastern Lake County Saturday through Monday. Despite the occurrence of critical RH and winds, vegetation is not completely primed for large fast moving wildfires, which will preclude a Red Flag Warning. Garner && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM PDT Friday for CAZ106-108. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM PDT Friday for PZZ455. Gale Warning from 9 AM Friday to midnight PDT Saturday night for PZZ455-475. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM PDT Friday for PZZ450. Hazardous Seas Warning from 6 PM Friday to 6 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ450. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Friday for PZZ470. Gale Warning from 3 PM Friday to midnight PDT Saturday night for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Friday for PZZ475. && $$ Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

000 FXUS66 KMTR 070622 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 1122 PM PDT Thu May 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS...A dry cold front will mix out much of the marine layer overnight with only some patchy clouds and drizzle along the coast and around the Bay overnight into Friday morning. Breezy winds on Friday will keep temperatures near normal but with plenty of sunshine. Winds turn northerly Friday night into Saturday, strongest across the North and East Bay hills with elevated fire weather concerns as humidity drops and temperatures will trend much warmer by Saturday afternoon. Dry and warm weather continues Sunday through the middle of next week as high pressure builds but with generally light winds. && .DISCUSSION...as of 9:42 PM PDT Thursday...Minimal short term concerns overnight into Friday. A dry cold front has passed over the region and for the most part acting to disrupt the marine inversion layer most locations. The northerly gradient is around 5 mb, usually strong enough to keep clouds out of the North Bay while the onshore SFO to Sac is a robust 4 mb with gusty winds from the Golden Gate out into the Delta. The 850 mb temps are down to around 9 Celsius which is close to the SST so enough cooling aloft to disrupt the inversion layer. Locally some low clouds will still pile up from the San Mateo coastline to the Monterey peninsula overnight. The NAM model continues to generate some drizzle by morning around Monterey as onshore winds, frictional convergence and upslope flow act on the marine layer to produce some localized drizzle. Drying airmass behind the boundary Friday with westerly winds turning more northerly through the day. This will keep temps pleasant as the airmass dries with inland highs generally in the 70s while 60s prevail near the coast. By Friday night forecast concern turns to fire weather. Latest fuel analysis shows fuels rapidly drying out once again with many readings trending near historically dry levels at most fuel classes. Behind todays cold front a typical offshore wind pattern looks to set up. Expect northeast winds to start blowing in the Napa hills Friday night and eventually spreading into the East Bay hills. Humidity values in latest 00z nam solutions are trending drier in the hills, with some values now in the 20-30% range Friday night. Offshore winds look moderate with widespread gusts in the 40-50 mph range above 2000 feet looking likely and of course 60 mph plus for the highest peaks. Offshore winds will continue on Saturday with rapid drying throughout the region. Latest NAM MOS for Santa Rosa is forecasting a toasty 94 degrees on Saturday with ideal downslope winds across the North Bay. Mid shift focus will be on high temps Saturday and just how much drying and lack of RH recovery occurs in the hills. Will at least be considering possible fire weather headlines focused from late Friday night into Saturday and possibly even Sunday though winds should ease and humidity recover some by then. Areas of greatest concern will be the North and East Bay hills as well as the far interior valleys where the grass crop is rapidly drying out as humidity drops and north winds will be gusty. Forecast looks warm and dry Sunday through at least the middle of next week as high pressure builds. && .PREV DISCUSSION...as of 1:45 PM PDT Thursday...Inland sunshine prevails, but coastal clouds lingering. Onshore flow remains ahead of an approaching front keeping the coastal clouds in place. Coastal areas remain on the cooler given the clouds. Despite the inland sunshine the change in airmass associated with the approaching front has also led to cooler temperatures too - in some cases 10-15 degrees cooler this afternoon. Speaking of the approaching front, it is clearly visible on the satellite to the north. Additionally, radar along the Redwood coast near EKA is showing some light rain. Unfortunately the rain will stay to the north and not impact the Bay Area. For tonight, the cold front will sweep through the region mixing the stratus deck. Even with the mixing some low clouds are still expected. A few models even show some light drizzle developing over the terrain and coast as the front moves through. Behind the front on Friday cool conditions will prevail. The bigger story the next few days will actually be the the offshore flow setting up Friday and over the weekend. Upper level high pressure will build over the EPac Friday and this weekend. More importantly, at the surface high pressure builds over OR and northern NV at the same time. This set up will kick off northerly flow as early as Friday. Northerly flow will first develop over the higher terrain of the N Bay and then spread southward and increase in intensity Friday night and early Saturday. Winds appear to be strongest above 2,000 feet with gusts 40-50 mph +. Not enough mix down to justify a Wind Advisory at this time. A drying airmass will also accompany the northerly leading to moderate to locally poor overnight humidity recovery. Fuels are near critical levels, but not at record levels just yet. Therefore, will hold off on issuing any Fire Watches or Red Flag Warnings at this time. Simply put, the offshore flow Friday night and Saturday will bring heightened fire weather concerns to the Bay Area. Offshore flow will also contribute to warmer temperatures this weekend - both day and night. Conditions moderate early next weekend with another warming trend possible mid-week as high pressure builds in from the Desert SW. && .AVIATION...As of 11:22 PM PDT Thursday...For the 06z TAFs. Patchy stratus and fog /VLIFR-IFR/ conditions continuing to develop tonight per satellite and surface observations. Drying northerly winds also developing overnight through Friday with VFR prevailing Friday and Friday night. Vicinity of KSFO...VFR. West wind occasionally gusting to 25 knots overnight, gusty west wind to 30 knots resuming Friday afternoon and evening. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to KSFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...Stratus and fog /VLIFR-IFR/ then cigs gradually increasing to MVFR Friday morning. West winds 10 to 20 knots, strongest Friday afternoon and early evening. VFR Friday and Friday night. && .MARINE...as of 09:14 PM PDT Thursday...Moderate northwest winds prevail with locally stronger wind gusts over the northern waters and along the coast. The northwest swell will continue to weaken into the weekend with most waves being generated as a wind wave. As a frontal system moves over the waters tonight and into Friday, widespread gusty northwest winds with gale strength gusts are expected. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... .Tngt...SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm SCA...Mry Bay until 3 AM SCA...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 3 AM SCA...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm until 3 AM GLW...Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm from 3 AM GLW...Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm from 3 AM GLW...Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm SCA...Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm SCA...Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST: RWW AVIATION: Canepa MARINE: DK Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

082 FXUS66 KOTX 070445 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 945 PM PDT Thu May 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Today will be unseasonably warm with afternoon temperatures in the upper 70s and 80s. The arrival of a vigorous cold front later this afternoon and evening will bring gusty winds and the chance for evening showers and possibly a few thunderstorms. Friday will be cooler and breezy, and these cooler conditions will persist into the weekend. Next week will be dry with temperatures warming above average by mid week. && .DISCUSSION... Thursday: Unseasonably warm temperatures and a few wind gusts in the 20-25 mph range have been reported this afternoon which is on track with our forecast. Soon, the cold front is expected to cross the Cascades around 3-4pm and slowly transverse the region towards Idaho throughout the evening, reaching the Idaho- Washington border around 6-8pm. As the front passes through the region, we can expect a shift to southwesterly and westerly winds and stronger gusts generally in the 25-35 mph range. Isolated stronger gusts to around 40 mph are expected in the foothills of the Blue Mountains, Cascade gaps, and Columbia Basin, which could pick up a little bit of dust. With the surface cold front and wind shift, some rain showers and thunderstorms are expected to bubble up. Most precipitation will be east of Idaho by early Friday morning. Friday: Temperatures will be a lot cooler following Thursday`s frontal passage. Friday, afternoon temps in the mid 50s-mid 60s and overnight temps down to the 30s are expected, both of which are around 5 degrees below average. This is also as much as a 20 degree cool down from today, particularly for maximum temperatures. Somewhat breezy conditions are also expected Friday afternoon due to the tight pressure gradient which hangs around as the pattern slowly shifts. Another thing - current thinking is that blowing dust is not very likely Friday, and it is especially less likely than today, but we could see some patchy blowing dust around Highway 2 in the Basin since this is where fields have been worked recently. For now, we are leaving blowing dust out of the forecast. Precipitation wise, we expect some lingering rain and snow in the Cascades due to good support for convergence in the PSCZ. Also, as the afternoon heating kicks in, there will be enough support for some popup showers and thunderstorms in the Cascades and northern Washington mountains. A popup shower or two cannot be ruled out for the rest of the region. RC Saturday through Thursday: For Saturday through Monday, we have slight chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast across the Idaho Panhandle as low pressure remains just to our east. Afternoon temps will remain a bit below normal this weekend, but are then forecast to steadily climb through mid-week as we transition into a higher pressure scenario. Model output varies more notably for late Wednesday and beyond, but significantly impactful weather looks unlikely for the extended forecast through at least Thursday. /KD && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: Gusty winds up to 25 kts will persist through 12Z. High based rain showers will continue thru the night potentially impacting GEG-SFF-COE. Some brief partial clearing is expected aft 12Z, but afternoon cu is expected across the region. Sustained winds will remain elevated thru the day with gusty winds in the afternoon and evening across the Columbia Basin and east slopes. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 43 59 35 60 37 62 / 30 10 10 10 0 10 Coeur d`Alene 46 57 34 57 37 60 / 30 20 10 10 0 10 Pullman 42 55 34 56 37 57 / 30 10 10 10 0 10 Lewiston 51 62 41 63 42 65 / 30 20 10 10 10 20 Colville 39 61 32 63 35 65 / 40 40 40 0 0 10 Sandpoint 47 57 36 55 36 58 / 50 30 30 20 10 20 Kellogg 46 52 36 51 39 55 / 50 30 20 20 10 20 Moses Lake 41 64 35 67 38 70 / 20 10 10 0 0 0 Wenatchee 43 60 39 64 41 67 / 10 10 10 0 0 0 Omak 43 63 36 67 39 70 / 30 20 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$

917 FXUS66 KPDT 070901 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 201 AM PDT Fri May 7 2021 .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...An upper trough will move into and across the forecast area today and tonight. This will bring much cooler temperatures along with continued breezy to windy conditions. Maximum temperatures will be about 15-20 degrees cooler than Thursday, with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s lower elevations and 40s to mid 50s mountains. There will be a slight chance to a chance of mainly mountain showers. Thunderstorms are not expected, but any precipitation will be convective in nature due to the colder air aloft within the upper trough creating steeper temperature lapse rates. Today`s main concern will be the windy conditions again, which will kick up some blowing dust in the Lower Columbia Basin, mainly on the WA side of the Basin. The winds may also cause some control issues on any new or existing fires in dry grassy areas of the eastern Columbia Gorge eastward across the Lower Columbia Basin. Tonight and Saturday the upper trough will move to the east and a cool northwest flow will move over the forecast area on the back side of the trough. There may still be some light mountain showers, but nothing significant. It will continue to be locally breezy to windy with continued cool temperatures. A slow warming trend will begin on Sunday with mostly dry conditions and lighter winds under a northwest flow aloft. There may still be some mountain showers, caused mainly due to an upslope low level flow into the eastern mountains, and some spill over the Cascade crest onto the east slopes. A warming trend will continue into the extended period with dry conditions. 88 .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...Models in agreement on a trough developing just to our east beginning Sunday. This system will stall over the western Great Plains Monday into Tuesday while caught in the midst of a weak omega block, before it deepens and progresses eastward by the end of Tuesday. The result of this developing low will be a persistent NW flow regime over the forecast area for the start of the work week. Ensembles keep the cold front associated with this system to our east, leaving only a minimal chance for precip in Wallowa County. Elsewhere, mild conditions will prevail, with highs in the 60s and 70s in the valleys before giving way to warmer conditions as a ridge moves in for Tuesday and Wednesday. Ensembles in good agreement on quiet weather for the CWA in the long term, but diverge a bit towards the end of the work week on depicting the synoptic pattern. Some members favor persistent ridging through the work week while others introduce weak zonal flow, which would cap increasing high temperatures a bit. Current models suggest a warming pattern through most of the week, with highs peaking Wednesday in the upper 70s/low 80s for the lower elevations, before zonal flow keeps high temps stagnant in the 70s valleys and 50s/60s mountains. 74 .AVIATION...12z TAFs...Mostly VFR conditions expected for the period. Friday will be another windy day as a system continues to move onshore, with west winds sustained 15-20 kts gusting up to and over 30 kts at times. PSC/PDT/ALW could see patchy blowing dust that decreases vsbys down to MVFR or worse, however widespread and long- lasting impacts from BLDU not anticipated. Low to mid sct-bkn cigs 5- 10 kft will form during the afternoon, rising to over 15 kft by the evening. 74 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 59 37 62 39 / 10 10 0 10 ALW 63 41 65 43 / 10 10 0 10 PSC 66 42 69 44 / 10 10 0 0 YKM 62 34 66 38 / 10 10 0 0 HRI 64 40 67 43 / 10 10 0 10 ELN 58 37 61 40 / 20 10 0 0 RDM 54 28 59 35 / 10 0 0 0 LGD 54 34 57 36 / 20 10 0 10 GCD 56 34 59 38 / 10 10 0 10 DLS 60 42 63 46 / 20 10 10 10 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...88 LONG TERM....74 AVIATION...74

000 FXUS65 KREV 062025 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 125 PM PDT Thu May 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure moving into the Pacific Northwest will bring stronger winds today along with isolated thunderstorms and blowing dust east of Highway 395. Lighter breezes continue into Friday with cooler temperatures for Friday and the weekend. Next week will feature warm conditions with light winds. && .SHORT TERM... Low pressure trough pushing into the west coast will bring a mix of breezy winds and threat for a few thunderstorms into this evening. Winds are gusting near and above 30 mph in the Sierra and along US-395 from Susanville to Minden. Gusts up near 40 mph should continue until 8-10 pm or so with winds decreasing overnight. Greatest thunderstorm threat is roughly from Mono Lake northward into Lyon, Mineral, Churchill and Pershing Counties from 3-9 pm today where an axis of instability develops from the gusty west- southwest winds off the Sierra and the strong surface heating over Nevada. Simulations show the instability axis may be slow to exit into central NV until early Friday AM. This opens the door for elevated convection tonight over Pershing and Churchill counties as the jet segment passes overhead. The instability isn`t overly strong so only looking at 5-10% chance of lightning overnight. The trough will move overhead Friday with cooler conditions and some gusty west-northwest resurfacing Friday. Gusts will remain near and below 30 mph, but could see some higher gusts in Mono- Mineral Counties. Simulations have been developing a few showers along the crest south of Mammoth Mountain late Friday afternoon. Last piece of energy from this trough will pass through Friday night and shift the winds to the north-northeast. Winds may be a bit gusty again early Saturday morning, especially for those heading out to Pyramid Lake, Tahoe, or venturing up into the higher elevations of the Sierra. In the lower elevations, Saturday AM lows may dip into mid 30s so be prepared to protect and any temperature sensitive plants. Brong .LONG TERM...Sunday through Next Week... Northerly breezes continue for Sunday with gusts generally 15-25 mph. With high temperatures in the low/mid 70s, Sunday morning and evening could feel a little brisk when compared to recent conditions. Gusts up to 30 mph will be possible in the vicinity of Hawthorne where northerly flow is channeled by local terrain. While most models favor dry conditions, it`s worth noting that GFS digs inter-mountain west troughing southwestward and points to the possibility for afternoon showers on Sunday from the Tahoe Basin through Mono County. Overall possibility of 10% at this time given the consensus view of all other model suites. Otherwise, the rest of next week will be characterized by ridging with a transition to zonal flow aloft. The result will be a warming trend back to above average temperatures by Tuesday with continued dry conditions. Western Nevada valleys will climb into the low/mid 80s while Sierra valleys warm into the low/mid 70s. With zonal flow aloft and warm afternoon temperatures, expect zephyrs to kick up by Tuesday afternoon with afternoon gusts 20-25 mph. Looking farther ahead, there could be an uptick in afternoon gusts by the end of the week depending on how close to the region a trough passing through the Pacific Northwest gets. Boyd && .AVIATION... Breezy surface winds with gusts 25-35kts can be expected for all terminals through this evening. Ridge level flow will promote at least moderate turbulence with LLWS potential for TVL. Enhance cumulus is developing over the the ranges of western Nevada. Expect some convection for flight paths east of the Sierra Front over west-central Nevada through the evening as a trough moves through the region. Winds will drop a notch for Friday, gusting 20-25kts with generally quiet weather expected through next week. Boyd && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Pyramid Lake in NVZ004. Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in NVZ002. CA...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Lake Tahoe in CAZ072. && $$ For more information from the National Weather Service visit... http://weather.gov/reno

000 FXUS66 KSTO 062056 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 156 PM PDT Thu May 6 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Cooling trend through tomorrow. Increased north winds and warmer into the weekend and early next week with elevated fire weather concerns. Dry weather continues. && .DISCUSSION... A few high clouds are noted in the northwest portion of the CWA just ahead of the trough this afternoon; elsewhere, mostly clear skies prevail. Some breezy onshore winds are being seen across the area as well, with the strongest gusts remaining in the vicinity of the Delta. Highs will be anywhere from 5 to 10 degrees cooler than those of yesterday. The main trough axis passes overhead early tomorrow with even cooler temperatures expected, although still remaining slightly above average for early May. Winds shift to offshore tomorrow with this pattern remaining over the weekend into next week. The trough across the northern Rockies and Great Basin over the weekend will (once again) act to tighten surface pressure gradients bringing a period of gusty north to east winds to the area. The strongest winds look to be on Saturday with gusts in the Valley peaking from 30 to 40 mph in the morning into the afternoon. Gusty winds continue on Sunday, although coverage may be a bit less widespread with the strongest winds mainly in the northern and western portions of the Sacramento Valley. Relative humidity values will also be extremely low this weekend with Valley locations expected to drop into the single digits. Poor overnight recoveries will also be seen. Due to these winds, low RH values, and dry fuels, elevated fire weather concerns will be seen throughout the weekend into early next week. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued beginning early Saturday. Avoid using outdoor equipment that could create a spark and obey local burn bans. The return of warmer temperatures is also expected this weekend as upper level ridging moves back over Northern California. && .EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Monday THROUGH Thursday)... Ensemble guidance indicates continued breezy and dry conditions Monday as the low pressure system that is forecast to tighten pressure gradients this weekend moves off to our east. Thereafter, building high pressure over the region will lead to warming temperatures and continued dry weather. High temperatures are expected to be 10-20 degrees above average. Also, areas along the thermal belts in the foothills could see mild overnight temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s. By mid- week we could see an increased Delta Breeze. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions next 24 hours. Surface wind gusts 15 to 20 kts Valley terminals. Gusts 25 to 30 kts Carquinez Strait and Delta. Winds decreasing after 6 UTC. Except, gusts 25 to 35 kts Sierra Nevada persist into Friday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Monday afternoon for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Central Sacramento Valley in Glenn, Colusa, Yuba, Northern Sutter, and Butte County Below 1000 Ft-Eastern Mendocino NF-Eastern Portion of Shasta/Trinity NF-Northern Motherlode From 1000 to 3000 Ft. Includes portions of Nevada-Yuba-Placer-Amador and ElDorado Units-Northern Sacramento Valley to Southern Tehama County Line Below 1000 Ft-Northern San Joaquin Valley in San Joaquin and Stanislaus Counties Below 1000 ft-Northern Sierra Foothills from 1000 to 3000 Ft. Includes portions of Shasta-Trinity and Butte Units-Southeast Edge Shasta-Trinity NF and Western Portions of Tehama-Glenn Unit-Southern Motherlode From 1000 to 3000 Ft. Includes portions of Calaveras-Tuolumne Unit-Southern Sacramento Valley in Yolo-Sacramento Far Western Placer, southern Sutter and Solano County Below 1000 Ft. && $$

599 FXUS65 KMSO 070902 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 302 AM MDT Fri May 7 2021 .DISCUSSION...It will be much cooler today with scattered showers as a weak cold front slowly pushes through the region this morning. High temperatures will be 20-30 degrees cooler compared to Thursday. Enough instability will remain over Lemhi County into Southwest Montana for a few thunderstorms to develop. Overall precipitation amounts will be fairly light. Breezy westerly winds will also be common with gusts of 20-30 mph at times. Scattered showers will continue tonight as an upper level trough of low pressure settles over the Northern Rockies. Snow levels will drop to around 3000 feet by Saturday morning so even the valleys of western Montana may experience a few flurries. A dusting of snow is probable on areas passes Saturday morning but relatively warm road surfaces should keep any road accumulations very brief. Forecast models have settled on the idea of a closed low wobbling through the Northern Rockies Saturday through early Tuesday. There are still differences on the exact track of the low which will impact precipitation amounts. But there is high confidence in below normal temperatures as valley highs will only be in the 50s and at the very least scattered showers will be common each day. At this point, the bulk of the precipitation is anticipated along the Divide but showers could easy focus farther west as the low wobbles. Snow levels will vary from 3000 to 4000 feet, so area passes could see occasional road impacts (mainly at night), meanwhile valleys have the potential for brief snow and graupel showers. There is general agreement on a brief warming and drying trend by the middle of next week followed by yet another cool down. && .AVIATION...Scattered showers resulting in lowered ceilings and obscured mountains are expected today as a weak cold front slowly pushes through. Much of area will be behind the front by mid- morning with cooler air and breezy westerly winds for much of the day. Enough instability will exist over Lemhi County and Southwest Montana for a few thunderstorms this afternoon. An upper level trough settles overhead tonight allowing scattered showers to continue. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

000 FXUS65 KBOI 070850 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 250 AM MDT Fri May 7 2021 .SHORT TERM...Today through Sunday night...A few light rain showers have been seen on radar early this morning, and a narrow north- south band of showers has been slowly taking shape near the OR/ID border and slowly shifting east. This band was first depicted in the hi-res models yesterday but it has been moving east slower than forecast. Now it may take until sunrise to pass through the Treasure valley and noon to get to the Magic Valley. Ahead of the shower band, a cold front was moving eastward across southern Idaho marked by a wind shift to northwest and an increase in wind speed, and also falling temperatures. Northwest winds will increase further to near advisory speeds this afternoon in the Snake Basin, and 15 to 30 mph elsewhere in open areas in southwestern Idaho and eastern Oregon. Winds will decrease only slightly tonight then increase again Saturday, again to near advisory speeds. Along with the wind, high temperatures today will be 25 to 30 degrees cooler than yesterday, and a couple degrees cooler still on Saturday under the upper trough. Low temps tonight and again Saturday night will be in the 20s in the mountains and 30s in the valleys. Frost is unlikely in the agricultural valleys due to the continuing wind. Sunday night will be slightly milder but less windy. Light rain and snow showers will continue in the central Idaho mountains east of McCall through Saturday. Up to an inch may accumulate as low as 4500 feet MSL. Saturday night and most of Sunday will be dry, but more rain and snow showers may fall in the central Idaho mountains late Sunday and Sunday night. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...There is decent agreement among both the deterministic and ensemble models that an area of low pressure will exit the region early in the week giving way to ridging across the west that will linger into Friday. This will allow for a warming and dry trend throughout the extended period. && .AVIATION...VFR. A cold front is expected to work through the region this morning with increasing clouds and the threat of light precipitation. The front should be east of the region by 18/19Z. Surface winds: Becoming northwest 10 to 20 knots area-wide after frontal passage, with eastern Oregon seeing the shift before 09Z and Idaho locations seeing the shift between 09 and 14Z as the front tracks eastward. Winds aloft at 10k ft MSL: Southwest 15 to 30 kts. Weekend Outlook...Mountain showers and afternoon thunderstorms will continue through the weekend with periods of mountain obscuration. Breezy northwest winds today and Saturday, especially south and east of Boise. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....MC AVIATION.....MC

000 FXUS65 KLKN 070907 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 207 AM PDT Fri May 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS...A trough continues to bring unsettled weather to NV today with gusty winds and thunderstorms. These thunderstorms sadly wont lead to any meaningful precipitation. Some additional unsettled weather may occur during the weekend before fair weather returns to the silver state for next week. && .SHORT TERM...Today and Saturday. Today will see further unsettled weather as a trough continues to pass over NV. Northwesterly gusty winds will occur across NV today with gusts mainly in the 20s mph range. Thunderstorms will occur this afternoon into evening mainly in central to eastern NV. These thunderstorms shouldn`t lead to much if any precipitation but will cause gusty outflows that could be strong at times. The thunderstorms and the gusty winds will taper off fairly rapidly during the evening hours. The passage of this system will cool the temperatures with the highs being in the 60s and 70s today. The trough will leave the region late tonight allowing a dry northwest flow to move across NV. This will cause Saturday to be a dry and fair weather day. The northwest flow will cause Saturday to be somewhat cooler with highs mainly in the 60s. .LONG TERM...Saturday night through Thursday A low pressure system parking itself to our northeast keeps weather active at the start of the week. Enough moisture wraps around the low to bring a chance of showers on Sunday and Monday. With the recent cooler air that has pooled in, we cannot rule out the possibility for snow in the higher elevations. However, its likely valleys just see rain if precip can actually reach the ground. With that being said, this looks like it will end up being more of a virga kind of day. There is still debate as to whether or not we see showers on Tuesday, but right now it is unlikely enough to keep them out of the grids. Tuesday is also a turning point for this recent active weather to become drier and warmer. Tuesday highs climb to the 60s and some 70s, but Wednesday and Thursday likely sees mostly 80s. && .AVIATION...More high-based showers and thunderstorms will shift into eastern Nevada this afternoon and evening affecting KELY but primarily east of KEKO. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected through Friday night with afternoon winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to 35, possibly stronger around KTPH in the evening. && .FIRE WEATHER...Isolated dry thunderstorms can occur with the passage of this weather system during the afternoon over parts of fire weather zones 425, 426, 427, 438, 469 and 470. The thunderstorm do not look to cause any wetting rain but should lead to erratic gusty outflow winds. Overall cooler temperatures and better humidity recovery will spread in behind the outgoing cold front this evening. Saturday will see more stable conditions across the region along with much lighter northwest winds and cooler temperatures and higher RHs. && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/84/90/99