ZSE Aviation Forecast Discussions

098 FXUS66 KSEW 012112 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 212 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and cloudy conditions will continue through Friday as onshore flow persists. A weakening cool front will bring chances for light rains to the coastal and mountain regions Thursday with only slight chances across the lowlands. Improving conditions are expected Friday afternoon through the weekend with decreasing cloud cover and temperatures returning to near normal. Dry weather and seasonable temperatures will continue into early next week. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Considerable cloud cover persists early this afternoon across much of Western WA, though clearing has begin pushing into the coastal regions. Patchy breaks in the clouds have allowed for some filtered sunshine across the lowlands with temperatures climbing into the 60s as of 1pm. Continued mostly cloudy skies with a few spotty breaks in the cloud deck are likely through the remainder of the afternoon and early evening before clouds redevelop overnight. On Thursday, a shortwave pushing into British Columbia will drag a weakening cool front into Western WA, with light rain chances spreading into the coast and mountain terrain during the day, and just slight chances (20% or less) across the Seattle urban corridor. Otherwise, continued cloudy and cool conditions are expected. By Friday, heights will begin to climb considerably as ridging builds into the central and western US. This will allow for an earlier afternoon clearing trend and encourage afternoon highs to climb closer to seasonal normals. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Increasing heights over the weekend in response to strengthening ridging in the Western and Central US will allow for temperatures to return to near normal early July values. Meanwhile, morning stratus across the low-lands will tend to thin and be less persistent than observed over the past week. Dry conditions and continued seasonable temperatures will continue into early next week. && .AVIATION... The northwesterly flow from an upper level trough continues through the TAF period. Generally VFR conditions prevail this afternoon through MVFR persists near KPWT and will persist at least a few more hours. Stratus deck will return overnight with widespread MVFR conditions expected. Light rain showers will move into western WA Thursday with best chances affecting KCLM and KHQM and continued cloudy conditions. Periods of MVFR conditions are once again expected during the morning hours, particularly from 12z-18z. South to southwest winds 5 to 10 kt will continue through the period, with a few gusts of 15 to 20 knots possible this afternoon. KSEA...VFR conditions are expected this afternoon with SCT-BKN cloud decks between 4-6kft AGL. MVFR conditions are expected to return overnight with ceilings generally in the 2-3kft range. Cloudy conditions expected for Thursday with slight chances for shower activity in the afternoon and evening. Generally light winds of 5 to 10 knots out of the south expected through the period. && .MARINE... Broad high pressure offshore and low pressure inland will continue today, maintaining onshore flow with steep seas over the outer coastal waters. A frontal system will cross area waters on Thursday, weakening the onshore flow and bringing an end to the steep seas over the outer coastal waters. Thereafter, a low pressure system will deepen over the Gulf of Alaska, maintaining onshore flow over the Pacific Northwest. This will result in periods of diurnally driven westerly pushes through the Strait of Juan de Fuca over the next week. A westerly push this evening through the Strait of Juan de Fuca will generate Small Craft winds through the central and east Strait. A frontal system Thursday will limit winds over area waters on Thursday. Additional westerly pushes are favored to occur Friday and Saturday evenings, and likely once again on Monday and Tuesday. A weak frontal system will also bring gusty winds to the southern coastal waters Sunday, with potential for SCA winds (60-70% chance of gusts over 30 kt). Steep seas will calm tonight as waves subside, lowering to 3 to 5 feet on Thursday. Seas will gradually build to 6 to 9 feet on Sunday and Monday, then slowly subside on Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Little in the way of fire weather concerns in the week ahead. Upper level troughing maintaining cool and cloudy conditions with high relative humidity values and a slight chance for showers along the coast and mountains on Thursday. Drier, sunnier, and more seasonable temperatures will begin Friday continuing into early next week. Low level onshore flow will moderate daytime minimum RH values and bring in good RH recovery each night. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Thursday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca- East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$

762 FXUS66 KPQR 012050 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 150 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Onshore flow persists over the next week with cooler than normal temperatures through Thursday. Within the zonal flow, weak high pressure forms which will allow for skies to clear and temperatures to warm. Looking at temperatures around more seasonable, or slightly above normal on Friday through at least Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION...Now through Wednesday...Very minimal change in current weather conditions and the overall forecast from the last package. The synoptic pattern can be best described as zonal onshore flow, with weak high pressure forming on Friday through early next week. 500 mb height ensembles are in excellentagreement with this overall pattern, and sensible weather forecasts remain on track with very little variation. Model guidance continues to suggest little change to the overall weather pattern on Thursday in comparison to Wednesday. Clouds will still be present with a few sun breaks but overall, impact wise, the forecast will remain unchanged. Temperatures will rise by a few degrees into the 70s, except into the 60s along the coast. Will note that all chances for precipitation have nearly disappeared or dropped below 5%. Conditions trend sunnier and warmer Friday into the holiday weekend as upper level flow transitions from northwesterly to westerly and 500 mb heights begin to increase a bit. By Friday, widespread highs around 75-80 degrees are expected for inland valleys. Highs will likely warm into the low to mid 80s for July 4-7 (70-90% chance each day), except in the Cowlitz Valley and along the lower Columbia where highs in the mid to upper 70s are the most likely outcome. Despite warmer temperatures inland, the coast will stay stuck in the 60s each day due to persistent onshore flow. It is important to remember that while things will be warming up, many of our natural water bodies remain cold. Please practice safe water practices and note that rivers are fairly quick moving and can quickly sweep you away. Wear life jackets, and visit with a buddy. -27/23 && .AVIATION...Widespread cloud cover remains in place across all of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. Generally VFR with some pockets of MVFR conditions along the coast and areas where the clouds are back building off of the Cascades. Will see minimal change in conditions today and the forecast is mainly wind change driven. Will see a return of diurnally driven winds from the north becoming breezy in the afternoon. Through the western Columbia River Gorge around K4S2, and the southern Willamette Valley, expect breezy winds with gusts up to 20 kt. Overnight, a weak disturbance will pass to the north increasing chances for MVFR CIGs from KTMK northward along the Coast Range and coastal terminals. KPDX AND APPROACHES...Low-end VFR ceilings around 4000-5000 feet are expected to continue through today. Northwest winds around 5 kt are expected to increase to around 10 kt with occasional gusts up to 15-18 kt around 02Z Thursday with an incoming weak front. Winds should become less gusty after 06Z Thursday. Marine stratus will linger over the next 24 hours. -27/23 && .MARINE...Seas have been a bit more dynamic today than previously thought. While most of the buoys shows seas less than 7 ft at 10 seconds, buoy 46050 continues to show periodic seas of 8 ft at 9 seconds thus equating to steep seas. However, these conditions are marginal and likely associated a bit with some of the breezier diurnally driven winds. Not expecting these conditions to be widespread though so have allowed the Small Craft Advisory to expire. Cannot rule out periods of these conditions though so be aware if in the outer waters south of Cape Foulweather. Winds are northwesterly around 6-8 kt with gusts of 15 kt except right along the coast where gusts up to 20 kt have been reported. Seas fall to 4-6 feet by late Wednesday night and then hold steady through the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, predominately northwest winds are expected to continue through Friday with general wind speeds becoming even weaker each day. A thermally induced surface trough will build northward up the south Oregon coast over the weekend, bringing increasing northerly winds with gusts up to 20-25 kt. As is often the case during this typical summertime pattern, wind speeds will be strongest during the afternoon and evening hours each day with daytime heating. Although significant wave heights are not expected to increase much, the increasing winds will result in choppier seas. -27/23 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

253 FXUS66 KMFR 012015 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 115 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 .KEY POINTS... * Low impact weather expected through the 4th of July. * Mild temperatures and enhanced afternoon breezes will continue through Thursday. Nightly return of clouds west of the Cascades will give way to sun in the afternoons. * No precipitation in the forecast. Afternoon cumulus buildups expected across northern California and East Side through Thursday...stray shower possible. * Temperatures trend warmer Friday into the weekend, peaking around 5 degrees above normal. * Sunday into early next week - pattern bears watching for potential thunderstorms and/or days where gusty winds combined with low RH could result in critical fire weather conditions. && .DISCUSSION...A broad trough will remain over the region through at least Thursday, possibly into early Friday. Friday will be a transition day as strong high pressure over the eastern CONUS weakens and begins expanding westward. Heights will build over the area on Friday as high pressure strengthens and establishes over the Desert SW through the weekend. Meanwhile, weak low pressure waves will continue to move into British Columbia, leaving the area under southwest flow Sunday into early next week. As broad troughing remains over the region through Thursday, the forecast will largely be a rinse/repeat scenario each day. Onshore flow will bring the return of stratus cover to areas west of the Cascades each night/morning, with clouds giving way to sun in the afternoons. High temperatures will hover around 5 to 10 degrees below normal, equating to upper 70s/low-mid 80s through Thursday. Expect some enhanced northwest breezes in the afternoons with gusts 20 to 25 mph. No precipitation is in the forecast, but there is enough upper level moisture and weak instability for some cumulus buildups to be possible across northern California and east of the Cascades in the afternoons. A stray shower isn`t out of the question, but overall, we aren`t seeing any strong signals for showers/thunderstorms through the week and into the weekend. The pattern transitions on Friday as heights build over the region. We don`t expect impactful weather through the 4th of July weekend. Temperatures will trend warmer on Friday, actually reaching values typical for this time of year -- low-upper 80s. As high pressure expands westward, and establishes itself over the Desert SW by Monday, we`ll see an uptick trend in high temperatures. Temperatures will peak around 5 degrees above normal (upper 80s East /low 90s West), so we don`t expect any heat related impacts into early next week and we should get through most of the Holiday weekend with fairly benign weather. With southwest flow over the region and high pressure in the Desert SW, we`ll need to monitor the pattern for any days where thunderstorms could be possible. Currently it looks like the soonest that could be would be Sunday into early next week as some guidance shows the remnants of some tropical moisture getting swept into the mid-lattitudes. At this time, it looks like that moisture stays far enough south to not be a concern for our area, but it is a pattern worth watching for any changes. Additionally, with weak troughs passing through to the north, we`ll need to monitor for any days where gusty winds could line up with low daytime RHs and result in critical fire weather concerns. So just to summarize, at this point, there aren`t any days we could point to in particular where impactful weather is expected, but we will be heading into a pattern early next week that bears watching for potentially impactful weather. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION...01/18Z TAFs...VFR conditions will continue through Thursday afternoon, with the exception of areas of coastal MVFR (mainly north of Cape Blanco) late this evening into Thursday morning (around 05Z-17Z). Also, continue to expect episodes of gusty, breezy northwest winds across the area during the late afternoon and evening, with gusts generally 20-25 kt. && .MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Wednesday, July 1, 2026...Gusty north winds will persist through the weekend and into early next week, maintaining steep to very steep seas. North winds will peak today as gales continue from Gold Beach southward and wind driven seas remain very steep through tonight. Steep seas are expected north of Gold Beach where fresh swell will maintain advisory level conditions. Winds ease tonight and conditions improve across the waters, but steep seas and advisory level winds will persist south of Cape Blanco through the end of the week. Conditions could worsen again late Saturday into Sunday as northerly winds increase, possibly bringing another round of widespread advisory conditions and very steep seas south of Gold Beach. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-370. Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376. && $$

915 FXUS66 KEKA 012049 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 149 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Northerly breezes near the coastline through the weekend. - Hotter temperatures over the holiday weekend. && .SYNOPSIS...Northerly breezes will persist along the coastline into the weekend but be noticeably lighter than the last few days. Seasonably warm to below average temperatures are expected through Thursday before temperatures warm up Friday and through the holiday Weekend. && .DISCUSSION...A very typical summer pattern is in-store for Northwest California over the next week as troughing over the inter-mountain west is replaced by a building ridge and heat builds toward the region over the weekend. Temperatures will begin around normal to slightly below normal Thursday into Friday and then warm generally above normal Saturday and Sunday across the interior. Highs Thursday will mostly be in the 80s and low 90s in interior valleys, warming to the mid to upper 90s by Sunday. Coastal areas will likely see an increase in moisture due to a compacting of the marine layer, which should result in more stratus and the potential for drizzle each morning Friday through Sunday, especially in the Humboldt Bay area. The ridge may break down some early next week as a trough strengthens over British Columbia. This could decrease 850mb temperatures over the region resulting in a slight decrease in temperatures early to mid next week. This outcome remains highly uncertain as the exact location of the trough/ridge axes will determine the end result over our area. Details specific to July 4th: Temperatures are forecast to be around 60 at the coast and in the lower to mid 90s inland. Cloud cover may be more extensive along the coastline with moisture increasing in the boundary layer and a stronger marine layer inversion due to the building ridge. Low stratus and fog may be a concern during the evening hours for coastal areas depending on the strength of the coastal winds and the mixing they can provide. Drizzle may develop during the morning hours and late evening. /RPA && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are prevailing across Northwest California this afternoon with gusty northerly winds along the coast, particularly in the CEC area. Winds will decrease this evening leaving most areas with light winds overnight, but once again CEC will likely remain gusty for much of the night. Model guidance indicates stratus will gradually increase the next few days along the coast with tonight probably being a near repeat of last night. Thus, MVFR to IFR ceilings are likely at ACV into the morning hours on Thursday. /RPA && .MARINE...Northerly gales have continued today with very steep seas in the outer waters. Some of the steep seas have propagated into the inner zones with 10 ft at 8 seconds reported at the Humboldt Bay North Spit buoy. Thus, the gales and hazardous seas warnings remain in place. Winds and seas will gradually decrease overnight tonight into Thursday morning and the warnings should be able to expire at some point Thursday morning. However, the pressure gradient over the waters will remain strong enough to maintain small craft conditions through the weekend. New small craft advisories will need to be issued replacing the warnings once conditions fall below criteria. /RPA && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Hazardous Seas Warning until 6 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ450- 455. Gale Warning until 6 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

145 FXUS66 KMTR 012342 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 442 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1232 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 - Cooler than normal temperatures through Thursday with breezy afternoon winds. - Gradual warming through Independence Day with pleasant conditions and temperatures returning back to near-normal. && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1232 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 (This evening through Thursday night) GOES-West visible imagery offers a similar snapshot compared to yesterday with marine stratus blanketing the Pacific Coast. The one difference to point out would be a thin shield of high clouds passing over the northern third of the Golden State. All in all, a very pleasant day on-tap for the San Francisco Bay Area and Central California Coast with minimal weather impacts to speak of. High temperatures will land in the 50s and 60s along the immediate Pacific Coast, warming to the 70s and 80s for interior locations. The synoptic picture features a trough over Western North America with a strong ridge over the Eastern United States. The trough axis has remained quasi-stationary over the last several days, which has promoted the overall tranquil late June, and now, early July weather. The trough will weaken on Thursday as the Eastern Pacific returns to more zonal flow aloft. That said, tomorrow will be largely a repeat of today with marine stratus for the coast and mostly clear conditions inland. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1232 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 (Friday through next Tuesday) Upper-level pattern will transition to zonal flow on Friday/Saturday as 500 mb heights begin to increase. This will correspond to some synoptic warming at the surface, mainly for inland locations, through Saturday. Overall, this warming will just return interior communities closer to early July climatology. In fact, HeatRisk for Independence Day will remain Low (green) along the coast and Minor (yellow) inland with the usual coastal stratus. Ensembles advertise ridging over the Desert Southwest late weekend and early next week. Still do not foresee much in terms of HeatRisk beyond the Minor (yellow) and very isolated Moderate (orange) categories for central and northern California through early next week. According to the National Blend of Models, the only local areas with at least 20% probability of exceeding 90 deg F through next Tuesday are confined to far eastern Contra Costa, southern San Benito, and southern Monterey Counties. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 445 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 Stratus with MVFR ceilings have returned along the immediate and will quickly expand around along the immediate coast. Elsewhere, expect a few high clouds but otherwise clear skies and VFR conditions this afternoon. Locally breezy onshore winds continue this evening before decreasing overnight. Stratus, mainly MVFR ceilings with localized IFR, will redevelop tonight into Thursday morning with increased inland extent compared to this morning. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the evening. Moderate confidence in MVFR ceilings briefly returning Thursday morning. Winds will increase to around 15 kt again Thursday. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...VFR conditions through the evening. Confidence is moderate that MVFR stratus will return late tonight into Wednesday morning at OAK. At SJC, VFR conditions are likely to prevail through Thursday morning, but there is a low potential for MVFR ceilings to develop. Tonight, winds decreasing and becoming west to southwest at OAK, and southeast at SJC. Thursday afternoon winds are expected to become northwest at SJC again by 21 or 22Z. Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR stratus is expected to return quickly this evening at both SNS and MRY. Breezy afternoon winds, southwest at MRY and northwest at SNS, decreasing this evening. VFR conditions are expected to return in the afternoon on Thursday although confidence is low on this. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1044 AM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 A gale warning continues for the northern outer waters while weaker, yet still gusty winds affect the rest of the waters. Gale force gusts across the northern outer waters will ease tonight. Moderate northwest breezes will prevail elsewhere. Rough to very rough seas will continue in the outer waters today and tonight before abating to become moderate to rough Thursday into Friday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10- 60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rowe LONG TERM....Rowe AVIATION...MK MARINE...Tangen Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

987 FXUS66 KOTX 012359 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 459 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy winds through the Cascade Gaps each evening this week. - Warmer and drier for the end of the week into the holiday weekend. - Breezy and dry winds Saturday afternoon and early evening. && .SYNOPSIS... Cooler than normal conditions continue through Thursday with breezy conditons each evening in the Cascade gaps. Friday into the the holiday weekend, temperatures warm back into the 80s with dry conditions. Winds will be breezy and across the region on Saturday, resulting in elevated fire weather conditions. && .DISCUSSION... Wednesday night through Friday: The Inland Northwest will remain under broad upper-level troughing for the next few days with passing embedded shortwaves moving through. Highs on Thursday in the mid 70s to low 80s will be around 3 to 7 degrees below average for this time of year. Temperatures warm slightly for Friday with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s. The combination of daytime heating along with the passing shortwaves brings a 20% chance of showers to the Cascades on Thursday and a 10-15% chance for showers and thunderstorms generally north of the Canadian border on Friday. Onshore flow into the Pacific Northwest will continue to support an influx of marine air into western Washington, with breezy winds through the Cascade gaps each afternoon and evening. Saturday through Sunday: Broad troughing that has encompassed the western US gives way to subtle ridging this weekend, transitioning the flow over the Inland Northwest to a more zonal pattern. This will bring a warming and drying trend to the region with widespread highs in the 80s to low 90s on Saturday. Saturday afternoon, a frontal system tracks across British Columbia with increasing onshore flow into western Washington. Models are in general agreement for the center of the upper-level trough and associated moisture to remain north of the US/Canada border with a dry cold front moving through the Pacific Northwest Saturday afternoon and evening. A surface low developing in southern Alberta will tighten the southwest pressure gradient across the Inland Northwest and high pressure offshore will strengthen the cross-Cascade pressure gradient as well. This would support breezy west to southwest sustained winds 10-25 mph with gusts 20-40 mph. Additionally, ensembles show PWATs dropping from around 0.60 to 0.75 inches (~100% of normal) ahead of the front to 0.30 to 0.40 inches (~50 to 60% of normal) with and behind the late Saturday afternoon and evening. This combination of breezy winds and influx of dry air will result in widespread elevated fire weather conditions. The highest probability (40-70%) for critical fire weather criteria (relative humidity less than 20% and sustained winds greater than 15 mph) is focused across the Okanogan Valley, the Waterville Plateau/Wenatchee area, the upper Columbia Basin, and the lee of the Blue Mountains. Monday through Wednesday: Ensembles are in general agreement for the upper-level ridge to amplify over the northern Rockies in response to a large, slow-moving, upper-level low in the Gulf of Alaska. While models are in good agreement on a solid warming trend for early next week with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s, forecast uncertainty increases in the duration of this warming trend by the middle to end of next week. WPC cluster analysis highlights significant timing and strength discrepancies regarding the ridge breakdown: approximately 20% of ensemble members show the offshore troughs influence over the Pacific Northwest as early as Monday, 20% maintain the ridge through Thursday, and the remaining 60% depict a trough during this period with varying timing and strength. The arrival of the upper-level trough also brings concerns for elevated thunderstorms during this period across the region, but there is too much uncertainty in the synoptic pattern at this moment to speak to any specifics. /vmt && .AVIATION... 00Z TAFs: The Inland Northwest remains under an upper-level trough with low and mid level clouds over northeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle. Isolated convective showers can be seen on radar over northeast Washington this afternoon. A 20% chance for showers will linger along the Canadian border into the evening (03-05Z), but precipitation is not expected near TAF sites. Otherwise, widespread VFR conditions are expected through much of the period. A continued deep marine layer into the Cascades will contribute to breezy winds at KEAT with northwest winds gusting to 20-25 kts after 00Z Thursday. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions across TAF sites. There is a low chance (less than 20%) for MVFR cigs at KCOE Thursday morning, similar to Wednesday morning, but confidence is not high enough to include in the TAF. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 48 75 52 80 53 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 49 75 53 78 54 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 43 73 48 77 49 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 52 81 56 85 57 90 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 43 76 47 80 48 83 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 47 74 51 77 52 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 47 74 51 76 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 48 81 52 86 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 55 80 57 85 59 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 50 80 53 85 55 87 / 0 0 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

267 FXUS66 KPDT 012232 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 332 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy winds today, subsiding slightly through week. - Warming and drying trend intensifies Friday through Monday. - Fire weather concerns over holiday weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Current radar and visible satellite imagery shows isolated thunderstorms across southern Wallowa County under mostly sunny to sunny skies. This is in response to a slowly departing shortwave that will keep these cells developing through the afternoon and early evening. Several cloud pulses have been observed via NLDN and GLD data related to a cell southeast of Joseph, however the ECWMF AI ensemble indicates precipitation water amounts of 0.5-0.6" which is around 100% of normal - so developing storm cells should be accompanied by a wetting rain (>0.10"). This shortwave, coupled with surface high pressure offshore, has allowed for a pressure gradient to develop along the Cascades. This has provided another day of breezy conditions through the Eastern Gorge, Simcoe Highlands, and Kittitas Valleys as sustained west-northwest winds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 35-45 mph are expected. Confidence is high in winds staying below advisory criteria (<45 mph) as the NBM advertises a 15-25% chance of 45 mph wind gusts or greater over the aforementioned areas, and a 35-55% chance of 40 mph wind gusts or greater. Another shortwave moves into the area on Thursday, bringing slightly less breezy winds to these areas as a weaker gradient develops along the Cascades. The weaker gradient is a result of overall broadening of the trough these shortwaves are passing through, which also leads to a shift in flow aloft from the northwest to more from the west. The shift in flow aloft into Friday will intensify the gradual warming trend that has been experienced earlier in the week. High temperatures will transition from about 5 degrees below normal to 5 degrees above normal Thursday through Saturday due to a shift to southwest flow aloft. Afternoon humidities will also transition into the teens across much of the area on Saturday, with portions of Central Oregon dipping into the single digits. Overnight humidity recoveries will also degrade from good (60-80%) values Saturday morning to poor/moderate (30-50%) Monday morning. These humidity values continue through Tuesday as high temperatures peak in the low to mid-90s across the Columbia Basin, Yakima Valley, Blue Mountain foothills, Grande Ronde Valley, John Day Basin, and Central Oregon. There is a likelihood that these temperatures may trend even higher as 57% of ensemble members suggest higher afternoon temperatures than the current forecast on Monday with 46% of members suggesting warmer temperatures than the current forecast on Tuesday. Even though there is less consensus on Tuesday, these members are 3-5 degrees warmer as 20% hint at triple digits over the Tri-Cities area. Due to these high temperatures, and lack of relief with overnight temperatures of around 60 degrees, Moderate HeatRisk is expected across much of the Columbia Basin, Yakima Valley, and northern Blue Mountain foothills both Monday and Tuesday. The transition from a breezy weather pattern through Friday to a hotter and drier regime through the weekend, elevated fire weather concerns across the Columbia Basin on Saturday afternoon. Critically low minimum humidity values in the low to mid-teens coupled with sustained west winds of 22-27 mph with gusts up to 35 mph may provide enough concern for fire weather products to be issued over the next 36 hours for the Lower Columbia Basin of Oregon, Fire Weather zone OR691. These parameters materialized in the last 24 hours, so further analysis of this trend will need to be conducted with updated guidance. Stay tuned. 75 && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... VFR conditions are expected (95 percent confidence) through the TAF period for all TAF sites. Winds will be diurnally breezy for most sites, strongest at DLS where windy conditions are forecast through this evening. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 46 79 51 84 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 52 80 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 50 82 53 88 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 50 82 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 49 82 53 87 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 47 76 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 37 79 42 85 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 44 80 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 42 82 47 85 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 52 78 55 85 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...75 AVIATION...86

565 FXUS65 KREV 012059 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 159 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A gradual warming trend continues, with highs reaching the 90s in lower elevations and 80s near the Sierra for the July 4th holiday weekend and next week. * Typical afternoon breezes are expected each day through early next week, stay fire safe. * Afternoon cumulus buildups are likely each day into next week, with a less than 10% chance for brief showers or thunder. && .DISCUSSION... A weak low pressure trough over CA/NV will gradually retreat to just off the Pacific NW coast as we reach the July 4th holiday weekend. This will allow for continued warming for the next few days. From July 4th through at least early next week, highs are projected to remain steady in the mid-upper 90s for most lower elevations and lower-mid 80s for Sierra communities--a bit warmer than average but not unusual for early July. The dry air mass will allow for decent cooling each night which limits the overall HeatRisk, although pockets of Moderate HeatRisk return to warmer valleys each afternoon from Saturday onward, when taking the usual heat safety precautions is advised. Each afternoon will bring typical zephyr-type breezes with gusts near 25 mph, although on any afternoon occasional gusts around 30 mph are within reach mainly near the US-395/I-580 corridors. With the recent dry conditions across the region, any spark could ignite and carry in dry vegetation, so avoid activities that could start a fire, and be extra cautious with fireworks for the holiday festivities. While the overall winds won`t meet lake wind advisory thresholds, be aware of localized choppy conditions each afternoon-evening, which could be enhanced a bit with increased watercraft usage on area lakes. While there isn`t a significant thunderstorm threat for the upcoming week, as temperatures climb we`ll see daily formation of cumulus each afternoon. Any subtle weak upper disturbance combined with terrain-driven convergence could allow for a few short-lived showers capable of isolated lightning. This potential is minimal (less than 10%) but non-zero, but if any showers manage to form, favored areas would be near the eastern Sierra and adjacent portions of western NV mainly from US-50 southward. The latest high resolution model guidance continues to show a mix of scenarios today through Friday, ranging from just flat to moderate cumulus to a few shower/t-storm cells popping up between 3-9 PM. MJD && .AVIATION... * Widespread VFR conditions expected at the main terminals through the holiday weekend with areas of cirrus passing through at times. Each afternoon will see FEW-SCT cumulus but chances for rain or thunder near any terminal is 5% or less. * Typical SW-W winds are expected each afternoon-early evening (mainly between 21-04Z) through at least Sunday with gusts generally 20-25 kt at the main terminals. MJD && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

319 FXUS66 KSTO 011809 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1109 AM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler temperatures through Thursday with light onshore winds - Warmer and more seasonable temperatures Friday through July 4th, followed by a gradual cooling trend. - Slight chance (5-10%) for isolated mountain thunderstorms along the Sierra early to mid next week. && .DISCUSSION... Clear skies are being observed across interior Northern California this afternoon via GOES West visible imagery. A longwave troughing pattern remains in place overhead resulting in temperatures near-seasonal to slightly below July normals. This will continue on Thursday, with continued light to breezy afternoon and evening Delta Breeze influence. Longwave troughing begins to break down by Friday as heights aloft increase leading to warmer, more seasonable temperatures through July 4th weekend. Troughing develops offshore early next week, prompting a slight cooling trend and breezier onshore winds as the week continues. High pressure will also begin building over the Four Corners region around this same time, potentially advecting a weak plume of monsoonal moisture northward depending on western extent of the ridge. In turn, this will bring a slight (5-10%) chance for isolated mountain thunderstorms to the Sierra early to mid next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Southwest winds gusts 20 to 25 kts in the Delta and over the Sierra Crest. South to southwest winds in the Sacramento Valley (northwest in the northern SJ Valley) with gusts 10 to 20 kts from 21Z-06Z then lowering to less than 12 kts. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

463 FXUS65 KMSO 011741 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1141 AM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Slow moving thunderstorms with heavy rain will cause a flash flood threat through this evening, especially in the Sapphire mountains and southwest Montana. - Thunderstorms will be a near daily occurrence for Lemhi County, ID and southwest Montana. - Gradual warming and drying trend through the weekend. A trough over the region today combined with all the recent moisture is a good set up for thunderstorms. A lack of strong wind shear or really any strong winds aloft at all means storms will move slowly at 12-20 mph towards the northeast. This slower motion and ample moisture supply means the biggest threat from these storms will be heavy rain. The HREF shows the potential for up to 0.80 inches of rain in under an hour this afternoon. Rain amounts this high would only occur in limited areas directly under the core of the strongest storms, and would not be a widespread event. Still, this is a concern for potential flash flooding, especially considering how moist the soils are with the recent rain. Current forecasts have these stronger storms focused in the Bitterroot Valley and areas eastward and south of Highway 12, including the Sapphire mountains. The trough pattern with southwest flow into the region will continue into early next week, and as a result, thunderstorms remain in the forecast through next week. The affected region will remain fairly consistent as well with a focus in the Bitterroot and eastward south of Highway 12. The flash flood risk is expected to diminish each day as a little more moisture gets worked out of the system. Even with the trough over the region for the next week, we expect a gradual warming and drying trend. That is because the trough will trend weaker with time. By this weekend much of the region will see relative humidity drop into the low 20 percent range with the southwestern portions of Idaho County, ID dropping into the teens again. && .AVIATION...A broad trough over the region combined with a very moist air mass is already causing convection this afternoon. Terminal KMSO will be on the northwestern edge of the convection, with KGPI the least likely to be affected by storms. Terminals KHRF, KSMN, and KBTM are under threat of thunderstorms through 02/06Z with heavy rain and small hail as the main threats. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Flood Watch through this evening for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains...Butte/Blackfoot Region...Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys. ID...None. && $$

443 FXUS65 KBOI 020010 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 610 PM MDT Wed Jul 1 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected over the Idaho highlands this afternoon and evening, and again on Thursday and Friday near the Idaho-Nevada border. - Dry this weekend into early next week. - Steady warming trend throughout the week with dry conditions and temperatures near normal on the 4th of July. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Issued 232 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2026 An upper level ridge will build into the region over the next several days with a warming trend over the short term. Lingering moisture over southwest Idaho will keep a threat of isolated thunderstorms over the mountains this afternoon and evening. Westerly flow will push the moisture to the east on Thursday and keep a threat of isolated thunderstorms mainly over the southwest ID highlands near the Owyhees and south of the Snake Plain to the NV border. Similar conditions on Friday but slightly warmer temperatures. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued 232 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2026 As a Four Corners ridge continues to build, heat will be the main hazard through the coming week. Guidance has continued to trend upward for max temperatures for July 4th, with valley temperatures now forecast to reach the mid-90s (around 5 degrees above normal). Saturday will be dry area-wide...some could say it will be a welcome change after the inclement weather last 4th of July. South/southwesterly flow will keep temperatures building into early next week, with the hottest day coming Monday with near triple digit temperatures in the Snake River Plain. This will give way to moderate HeatRisk impacts in the Snake River Plain and lower valleys starting Sunday, with localized areas of major HeatRisk impacts come Monday. Those sensitive to heat should consider taking precautions if planning to be outdoors. Moisture advection in the southwesterly flow will bring a risk of terrain driven showers/thunderstorms each afternoon starting early next week. Temperatures in the 90s will stick around through at least mid-week of next week. && .AVIATION /00Z Thursday through Friday/... Issued 604 PM MDT WED JUL 1 2026 VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms near the ID/NV border and the ID W-Central mountains this evening, expected to diminish after sunset. Main hazard will be gusty outflows 35-40 kt out of the strongest storms in S-Central ID. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt, becoming light and variable overnight tonight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR with mostly clear skies. Surface winds: NW 7-12 kt with gusts to around 18 kt this evening, becoming light and variable tonight after sunset. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JY SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....NF

849 FXUS65 KLKN 012012 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 112 PM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Isolated thunderstorms possible in Northeastern Nevada each afternoon and evening today and Thursday * A warming trend continues into the weekend for the area raising afternoon highs into the 90s * Potential exists for a 4-Corners monsoon setup early next week && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A long wave trough over western Canada continues to drag a series of shortwaves across northern NV Wednesday through Friday. These waves carry enough forcing despite weak associated boundaries to initiate convection over east and east-central NV both Wednesday and Thursday. Current radar and satellite imagery over the area shows shower and thunderstorm activity ramping up over Elko and White Pine Counties this afternoon. These waves are working with limited moisture available so storm activity will mainly be of the dry variety elevating fire risk concerns both days. Despite the shortwaves a warming trend will continue into the weekend when afternoon highs are expected to reach into the 90s. While HeatRisk impacts are expected to be minor through the weekend those sensitive to hot temperatures should take precaution to avoid heat related illness. Long range guidance into early next week depicts the development of a trough over the Pacific coinciding with high pressure building to the southwest over northern Mexico. Low level flow turns more southerly starting Sunday PM and the set up is in place for a potential 4-Corners monsoon event for east-central NV next Monday and Tuesday. Current positioning of the high is a bit too far south but if the high migrates further north into the southwestern CONUS likelihood of monsoon in the area should increase. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High confidence exists in thunderstorm activity Wednesday and Thursday. NBM was predictably underselling dry convection both afternoons so PoPs and Wx grids were adjusted to better represent spatial coverage. High confidence exists in the continued warming trend. Low confidence exists in a possible monsoon setup early next week. NBM/WPC long term grids currently do not account for this despite clear indicators in multiple long range models. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are anticipated at all terminals through Thursday afternoon. Westerly afternoon wind gusts on Wednesday will range 20-22KTs at KWMC, KEKO, KELY, KTPH, and KBAM before diminishing after sunset. SH and TS activity is forecasted for KEKO, KELY, and KENV Wednesday afternoon and evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry thunderstorm activity is possible over fire weather zones 425/427/469/470 through Wednesday evening. Thunderstorms are forecasted for fire weather zones 425/469/470 on Thursday. Moisture is slightly better on Thursday when a changeover from dry to wet is expected by Thursday evening. Previous concerns about a hot/dry/windy setup on Thursday over central NV have been relaxed as wind speed values have decreased with recent model runs. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...99 AVIATION...99 FIRE WEATHER...