ZSE Aviation Forecast Discussions

357 FXUS66 KSEW 241737 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 1037 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Upper level ridge and thermally induced surface trough east of the Cascades this morning. Light low level onshore flow today will increase tonight. Clouds out ahead of the first system in a couple of weeks spreading over the area Thursday. System moving through Friday with a cool upper level low dropping down over Western Washington Friday night and Saturday. Unsettled weather continuing into the first part of next week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Satellite imagery shows high clouds over portions of the area this morning with low stratus right along the coastline near Grays Harbor. Temperatures at 3 am/10z were in the mid 50s to lower 60s except in the Seattle metro area where temperatures were in the upper 60s. Upper level ridge axis moved into Eastern Washington last night. West southwesterly flow aloft with high clouds at times moving through the area. Thermally induced surface trough east of the Cascades as well. Light onshore surface gradients across Western Washington early this morning will slowly increase during the day. With the cooling aloft and weak marine push in the lower levels high temperatures around 5 degrees cooler than Tuesday over the interior, in the mid 70s to mid 80s. More cooling on the coast with stronger onshore flow. Highs there in the mid 60s. Air mass becoming somewhat unstable this afternoon. Could see some picturesque build ups over the Cascades by late afternoon. Any shower activity associated with the build ups will be east of the crest. Low level onshore flow increasing tonight with gale force winds in the Central and Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca and breezy southwesterly wind in the south Puget Sound and Hood Canal. Stratus developing along the coast spreading inland early Thursday morning with the marine layer getting east of Puget Sound around sunrise. Lows in the 50s. Onshore flow continuing Thursday with the marine layer retreating back to the coast in the afternoon. High clouds ahead of the next weather system spreading over the area in the afternoon making for a cloudy to mostly cloudy day. Rain out ahead of the front could reach the coast by mid afternoon. Highs only in the 60s. Rain ahead of the approaching frontal system spreading over all of Western Washington Thursday evening with rain continuing through the early morning hours. Lows in the 50s. Front reaching the coast Friday morning moving through the interior midday/early afternoon and into Eastern Washington by late afternoon. Rain changing to showers behind the front. Post frontal air mass unstable with a 20-30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Convergence zone forming over Snohomish county in the afternoon. Not much change in temperatures during the day with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. The record low maximum temperature for Seattle is 62 degrees. The forecast high is 63. Felton && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Cool upper level low dropping out of the Gulf of Alaska arriving late Friday night and Saturday morning. Convergence zone could move south over the Seattle area Friday night. Upper level low will keep showers in the forecast through Saturday. High temperatures will be similar to Friday, in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Lows Friday night in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Upper level low moving east of the area Saturday night with wrap around moisture keeping a chance of showers in the forecast. Lows again in the mid 40s to lower 50s. North northwesterly flow aloft Sunday with an upper level ridge building well offshore and the upper level low east of the area. A couple of weak troughs embedded in the flow aloft moving through the first part of next week. Will have to leave a chance of showers in the forecast for these features. Highs will remain below normal, in the 60s with lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Seattle currently sitting at the 4th warmest June on record through the 23rd. The cool weather to end the month will drop June 2026 down the list. Even with the cooler last few days Seattle still looking at ending up somewhere between the 7th and 10th warmest June on record. Felton && .AVIATION... VFR conditions this morning with scattered mid to high clouds present. Stratus along the coast has receded and so VFR conditions will persist today regionwide. A stronger push of marine air will occur Wednesday evening, with models showing MVFR/IFR stratus returning to the coastal terminals around 04Z, progressing to the interior terminals after 12Z. Along the coast, winds are westerly 7-12 knots with light and variable winds across the interior. Winds will become more westerly and increase to 8-15 knots across western Washington Wednesday afternoon, and northwest briefly from BFI northward to the Strait of Juan de Fuca from 00-05Z. KSEA...VFR expected through tonight, with a 30-50% chance of MVFR ceilings making their way into the terminal between 12-18Z. A return of broader onshore flow on Wednesday will shift winds to the west-southwest between 12-16Z with speeds increasing to 6-9 kts after 18Z. Models do not have the winds turning to the north at the terminal this evening at this time, but will likely switch briefly from 00-05Z areas to the north of the terminal. Thaler/HPR && .MARINE... Thermally induced surface trough east of the Cascades. Low level onshore flow increasing this afternoon and evening. Gale force winds in the Central and Eastern portion of the Strait of Juan de Fuca tonight with small craft northwesterlies in Admiralty Inlet. Onshore gradients easing Thursday. Frontal system moving through the waters Friday with possible small craft advisory winds with and just behind the front. Winds easing over the weekend. Choppy seas over the outer coastal waters through tonight with 7 to 9 foot swells with a 7 to 9 second period. The choppy seas will come to an end late tonight. Felton && .FIRE WEATHER... One more day of elevated fire weather concerns. Even though the low level flow has turned onshore minimum relative humidities will still drop to near 30 percent this afternoon. Increasing low level onshore flow tonight with the marine layer making it all the way to the Cascade foothills Thursday morning. Wetting rains along the coast Thursday night and Friday with a chance of wetting rains inland. Cool and unsettled weather over the weekend continuing into the first part of next week. Felton && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for City of Seattle- Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County- Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County- Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area. PZ...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PDT Thursday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT Thursday for Admiralty Inlet. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm. && $$

683 FXUS66 KPQR 241727 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1026 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 Updated Aviation discussion .SYNOPSIS...Today will be the last day of abnormally warm temperatures. Conditions remain dry while onshore flow increases. A significant weather pattern change is on track beginning Thursday as a frontal system swings through and returns widespread chances for rain beginning Thursday night and through the weekend. There is also a 10-25% chance for thunderstorms Friday afternoon and Saturday afternoon. Conditions trend drier and slightly warmer Sunday through early next week, but we`ll maintain slight chances for light rain showers across the Coast Range and Cascades. && .DISCUSSION...Today through Tuesday...Satellite imagery as of early Wednesday morning depicts widespread marine stratus along the coast and mostly clear skies inland. As daytime heating progresses today, we`ll see increased mixing and some stratus break-out along the coast by late morning. Guidance is optimistic for stratus breaking out along the entire coast, however, based on the persistent pattern and observations from the last few days, trends favor the north Oregon coast clearing out after 17-18z Wed while stratus keeps hold along the central Oregon coast. Whether stratus breaks out or not today, there is high confidence that marine stratus will fill back in later this evening. Today is the final day of very warm and dry conditions as the upper-level ridge that brought the heat the last couple days is breaking down and shifting eastward. Model guidance continues to show a weak upper-level trough passing through the region today, however, it`s not expected to bring any shower activity west of the Cascade crest-line given the lingering dry airmass over our area. Even though we`re expected to stay dry, this trough will bring increased onshore flow and afternoon high temperatures a few degrees cooler than the last couple days - upper 80s to low 90s across interior valleys. As a result, there remains widespread Moderate HeatRisk across the Willamette Valley, SW Washington lowlands, and Columbia River Gorge. This level of heat will affect those who are sensitive to heat, especially those without adequate cooling or hydration. Make sure to stay hydrated, wear light-colored and loose-fitted clothing, wear sun protection, taking frequent breaks from the heat, and limit strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day. A large-scale pattern change to cooler and wetter conditions remains on track for Thursday night through the weekend as ensemble and deterministic guidance is in excellent agreement of an upper-level low pressure system progressing into the Pacific Northwest from the Gulf of Alaska. Most ensemble members have rainfall via a cold-frontal boundary reaching the coast by late Thursday afternoon/evening and then spreading into the I-5 corridor by late Thursday night into Friday morning. We`ll remain in this cooler and wet pattern through at least Saturday, but at least total rain amounts at this time appear beneficial and generally non-impactful. Looking at the latest NBM, chances for 48-hour rain amounts exceeding 1 inch from 5 PM Thursday to 5 PM Saturday are around 40-70% for the coast and Coast Range, 10-30% along the I-5 corridor, and greater than 80% across the Cascades due to westerly flow bringing orographic enhancement. Will note that the western-most parts of the Willamette Valley (including McMinnville and Corvallis) only have a 5-10% chance of exceeding 1 inch during this timeframe due to potential rainshadowing from the Coast Range. By Friday afternoon, the upper-level trough moves further south and eventually centers itself right over-top the Pacific Northwest as a closed low on Saturday. Temperatures will further cool aloft allowing for increasing atmospheric instability during the daytime hours and facilitating CAPE values of 50-100 J/kg Friday afternoon and 100-200 J/kg late Saturday morning into the afternoon. This instability plus sufficient lift from the low will support a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms across NW Oregon and SW Washington Friday afternoon, and a 15-25% chance for thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. For now, any convection appears rather weak and unorganized (our typical post-frontal pop-up storms). LREF guidance suggests effective shear remains below 35 kt; therefore, chances these thunderstorms become severe are unlikely (<5%). Otherwise, any passing thunderstorms may produce lightning, brief heavy rain, erratic winds, and/or small hail. Also can`t rule out a cold air funnel cloud or two given the time of year. The latter half of the weekend into early next week the majority of ensemble members are showing the broader upper- level low feature shifting eastward, returning relatively drier conditions and a warm-up of a few degrees. Will still maintain precipitation chances across the Coast Range and Cascades as westerly flow continues to support orographic enhancement of precipitation, however, any additional rain amounts appear very light. Still, we`ll have to keep an eye on subtle shortwave features rotating into the region north to south on the back side of the upper-level low which may expand the coverage of showers temporarily - low confidence on the placement/timing of these smaller shortwave features. Westerly winds throughout this cool and wet pattern will be breeziest along the central Columbia River Gorge and across Upper Hood River Valley, with chances for isolated wind gusts exceeding 45 mph around 10-35% from Friday through early next week, with the highest chances on Sunday and Monday. -10/99 && .AVIATION...Scattered high clouds as relatively dry upper level trough moves across the region. Predominately VFR conditions continue except at the coast where shallow marine stratus persists with IFR to LIFR CIGs near KONP. Stratus has lifted to low-end MVFR at KAST and is expected to scatter out by 20z. Lower chances for conditions improving to VFR along the central Oregon coast, based on a persistent pattern the past few days, although guidance does show around an 80% chance for VFR at KONP between 20-00z this afternoon. There is high confidence that marine stratus fills back in along the entire coast this evening after 01-03z Thu. Diurnally driven NW winds continue with gusts up to 20 kt expected later this afternoon. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR expected with scattered high clouds through the TAF period. Northwest winds expected to increase to around 8-12 kt with gusts up to 20 kt by 23z this afternoon. /DH && .MARINE...High pressure will maintain northwest winds across the coastal waters through Thursday morning. Winds are generally expected to remain under 20 kt. Weakening high pressure will give way to a frontal system approaching the area on Thursday. Winds are expected to back west to southwesterly Thursday afternoon before the cold front pushes across the coastal waters Thursday night into Friday. Southwest winds are expected to be strongest across the inner coastal waters (up to 10 NM offshore) and north of Cape Foulweather, but there is only around a 10-20% chance of wind gusts exceeding 21 kt at any given hour through Friday morning. West to northwest winds will persist behind the front later Friday and into the weekend as weak low pressure lingers near Vancouver Island. High pressure gradually builds across the waters late weekend. Seas around 3-5 ft through Friday, building to 6-9 ft this weekend as a west- northwesterly swell moves in. -10/DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

822 FXUS66 KMFR 241817 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1117 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...24/18Z TAFs...The marine layer will remain well entrenched along the coast and at coastal sites today, maintaining IFR/LIFR conditions. There will be a brief period of improvement to VFR this afternoon, most likely between 18z-02z, but expect the quick return of LIFR/IFR conditions this evening, then persisting overnight. Inland areas will remain VFR through the TAF period with the typical increase in afternoon breezes. Cumulus buildups are also expected this afternoon over the higher terrain, with isolated thunderstorms possible south of the OR/CA border and east of the Cascades. /BR-y && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 409 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026/ DISCUSSION...With an upper trough`s influence decreasing as it moves eastward, daytime highs decrease but remain 5-10 degrees above normal. This afternoon and evening, modest instability and moisture will make isolated thunderstorms possible for eastern Siskiyou into Modoc County, as well as in Lake and eastern Klamath counties. Thunderstorm chances ease later in the evening. Seasonal warmth is forecast for Thursday ahead of a cold front arriving late Thursday night and moving over the area through the day Friday. Cold air behind the front will bring below normal temperatures across the area and chances for light rainfall to Oregon counties. Coastal ranges the the Cascades north of Crater Lake may see a quarter inch of rainfall. The Umpqua Valley may see up to one-tenth of an inch. This front will also bring breezy to gusty winds, especially east of the Cascades. The strongest winds are forecast to be over the Cascades, along Winter Rim, and over the Warner Mountains. Gusts in these areas look to approach but not exceed Advisory criteria. For Friday night into Saturday morning, Frost/Freeze possibilities may be present in northern Lake and Klamath counties. Being the front, a low pressure system dig into the upper trough and swings over the area over the weekend. This looks to make Saturday the coolest day of the forecast period, while temperatures warm slightly on Sunday as the low heads eastward. Rain showers are expected to continue over Coos and Douglas counties, especially over the Cascades foothills. Amounts remain unimpactful, with some parts of the foothills currently forecast to get one-third of an inch of rainfall over the weekend. Coverage of frost/freeze conditions east of the Cascades may expand on Saturday and Sunday nights. For Monday and beyond, significant divergence in model patterns makes any detailed forecasting difficult. Generally, an upper trough shifts slightly eastward, bringing northwest flow to the area that would bring fairly mild weather to start next week. -TAD AVIATION...24/12Z TAFs...Marine stratus remains in place along the Oregon coast early this morning, bringing LIFR flight levels. This layer looks to dissolve through the morning, with a periods of VFR levels possible along the coast late this morning and through the afternoon before stratus starts to rebuild in the evening. Inland areas look to remain at VFR levels with only normal diurnal breezes. Chances for isolated thunderstorms are present over Siskiyou and Modoc counties as well as east of the Cascades this afternoon and evening, but area terminals should be generally unaffected. -TAD MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday, June 24, 2026...Northerly winds south of Cape Blanco will pick up steadily today, sustaining steep seas. Winds start to ease on Thursday, with below advisory seas possible by Friday morning. A cold front is likely to bring moderate south winds becoming northwest, light rain and a modest increase in fresh west-northwest swell Friday into Saturday. Steep westerly swell may arrive over the weekend. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ356-376. && $$

207 FXUS66 KEKA 241202 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 502 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 .SYNOPSIS Strong high pressure over the area brings dry conditions and high temperatures to interior valleys through Thursday. A cold front will bring rain to northern coastal areas on Friday, followed by cooler temperatures and around a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms in northeastern mountains on Saturday. && .KEY MESSAGES * There is a 10% chance of localized triple-digit heat in the deepest, low-elevation interior canyons on Wednesday and Thursday afternoons. * Wetting rain (greater than 0.10 inches) is likely for nothern areas Friday into Friday night, with a 50% to 60% chance in coastal Del Norte County and a 30% to 40% chance in northern Humboldt County. * Significantly cooler conditions arrive Friday night, with around a 10 percent chance of thunderstorms developing over northeastern Trinity County interior mountains Saturday afternoon. .DISCUSSION An upper-level ridge remains established over the region, maintaining unseasonably warm conditions across the interior. Forecast highs for most valley floors, including Weaverville, will reach the 90s today and Thursday. NBM indicates a 10% probability (90th percentile) of localized temperatures reaching 103F to 105F, mainly confined to the lowest elevations of the Klamath and Trinity river corridors. Along the coast, a compressed marine layer will keep low clouds and patchy fog entrenched, though brief afternoon partial clearing is expected today due to stronger north-northwest winds. Dry conditions will persist across the interior today and Thursday under the influence of the ridge. The data indicates a less than 10 percent chance of lightning or rain through Thursday night, which is below the requirement for a mention in the text forecast. Model guidance shows high confidence in a deeper upper-level trough arriving on Friday. A cold front will spread light precipitation across northern zones. NBM 24-hour probabilistic guidance valid at 06Z Saturday highlights a well-defined signal for wetting rain along the northern coast. There is a 50% to 60% chance of rainfall exceeding 0.10 inches across coastal Del Norte County, and a 30% to 40% chance across northern Humboldt County. Southern areas and the deeper interior will remain dry outside of isolated sprinkles. Increased cloud cover and cold air advection will drop interior high temperatures by 15 to 20 degrees, capping Saturday highs in the 70s. As the core of the upper trough moves overhead on Saturday, destabilization will support around a 10% chance of thunderstorms over the higher terrain of northeastern Trinity County during the afternoon and evening. Clear skies and light winds Saturday night may cause frost in sheltered valleys like Hayfork, where there is a 30 percent chance of temperatures dropping below 36 degrees. Behind the front on Friday afternoon, strong westerly winds will develop across Lake and southern Mendocino counties. There is a 70% chance that wind gusts will exceed 30 mph in low elevations, with a high probability of gusts over 40 mph across exposed ridges. Breezy conditions continue Saturday afternoon and evening, with a 50% chance for lower elevations to see gusts over 30 mph. Northerly winds will shift at least briefly to the northeast across Lake County by Sunday afternoon. These dry, gusty winds will be monitored closely for fire weather concerns. && .AVIATION...A compressed marine layer will maintain IFR and LIFR ceilings across coastal terminals through the morning hours. Dense fog will reduce visibilities below 1 mile at KACV and KCEC before slow lifting occurs after 18Z. High pressure will keep ceilings hovering around 300 to 700 feet through the afternoon before lowering back to the surface after sunset. In contrast, inland terminals including KUKI will remain VFR with clear skies and typical diurnal wind patterns. && .MARINE...North winds will steadily increase today across the outer waters, generating near-gale force gusts up to 30 knots south of Cape Mendocino. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the outer waters through late Thursday night, and will expand to the inner waters south of Cape Mendocino this afternoon as steep waves of 5 to 8 feet propagate nearshore. Winds will briefly ease on Friday morning as a cold front approaches. However, a steep northwest swell of 6 to 8 feet at 9 seconds will arrive Friday night, keeping seas elevated through Saturday. Strong northerly winds between 20 to 25 knots are forecast to return across all waters late Saturday into Sunday. && .FIRE WEATHER...An upper-level ridge remains firmly established over northwest California, keeping hot and dry conditions intact across interior valleys through Thursday. Daytime highs on interior valley floors will reach the 90s both today and Thursday. High-resolution guidance continues to indicate a 10% probability of localized triple-digit heat up to 105 degrees, strictly confined to the lowest elevations of the Klamath and Trinity river corridors. Minimum relative humidities will drop into the teens across these interior zones during the afternoon hours. Along the coast, a compressed marine layer will keep low clouds, cool temperatures, and patchy dense fog entrenched. A significant pattern change occurs Friday into Saturday as a deeper upper-level trough and cold front move into SOC 6. This front will bring a high probability of wetting rain to coastal areas, with a 50% to 60% chance of exceeding 0.10 inches in coastal Del Norte County and a 30% to 40% chance in northern Humboldt County. Interior areas will remain dry outside of isolated sprinkles, but will experience a temperature drop of 15 to 20 degrees, dropping Saturday highs into the 70s. As the core of the cold trough moves overhead on Saturday afternoon, localized destabilization will support around a 10% chance of thunderstorms across the higher terrain of northeastern Trinity County. Winds will remain light with standard diurnal afternoon breezes inland today and Thursday. Behind the front on Friday afternoon, strong westerly winds will develop across Lake and southern Mendocino counties. There is a 70% chance that wind gusts will exceed 30 mph in low elevations, with a high probability of gusts over 40 mph across exposed ridges. Breezy conditions continue Saturday afternoon, with a 50% chance for lower elevations to see gusts over 30 mph. Winds are forecast to shift to the northeast at least briefly across Lake County by Sunday afternoon. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... None. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for PZZ455. Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ470. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for PZZ475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

121 FXUS66 KMTR 241911 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 1211 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1200 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 - Hazardous beach conditions along the Pacific Coast today - An upper trough brings cooler temperatures, moisture, and a deeper marine layer for Friday and Saturday - Gusty onshore winds begin Thursday, peaking Friday and Saturday with mountain passes gusting as high as 50-60 mph and marine concerns through the weekend && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 1200 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 (This evening through Thursday night) As was the case yesterday, clouds have been slow to erode from inland areas this morning with satellite showing many coastal areas still socked in. Weak upper level ridging did compress the marine layer a bit, preventing it from stretching as far inland as it did Tuesday. Patchy fog was reported across multiple coastal sites this morning but visibility is quickly improving as an eddy just off the coast is helping to lift cloud bases. For areas that remain under cloud cover, temperatures today won`t see much change from Tuesday`s highs, generally remaining in the 70s and low 80s. For interior areas, the weak ridging will be enough to push temperatures into the upper 80s to low 90s today. Temps peak today with Minor HeatRisk for those warmer spots before a slow cooling trend begins Thursday. The marine layer will remain relatively compressed tonight with additional patchy fog and visibility impacts for coastal terrain into Thursday morning. Upper level troughing will begin to push in by Thursday morning, with heights slowly falling through the day. This is likely to limit interior warming for Thursday afternoon, with highs expected to be a few degrees cooler compared to today. Around the same time, a large upper level low will sweep down the Canadian coastline, tightening the gradient over California. Gusty onshore winds will begin as early as Thursday, with the strongest winds expected for Friday and the weekend. Marine impacts/details from the uptick in winds can be found in the marine discussion below and in the Small Craft Advisory. The long-period southerly swell will continue to impact the Pacific Coast beaches through this afternoon with a lull for the end of the week. High rip current risk with sneaker waves...never turn your back to the ocean! Additional beach hazards will be possible this weekended, please see additional details in the discussion below. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 1200 PM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 (Friday through next Tuesday) A more significant cooldown will arrive Friday as heights continue to fall with the approaching low to the north. A frontal passage Friday could bring about 40-50+ mph winds for mountain passes and wind-prone spots, and 30-35 mph winds for the coastal waters. Low and mid-level moisture will surge in Friday as well, with a deepening marine layer and 50%+ min RH for every location except the very far interior spots. Drizzle and light rain will not be out of the question for both Friday and Saturday mornings given a sufficiently deep marine layer, and clouds may struggle to clear out Friday afternoon. Fire weather concerns will also be limited despite the strong winds given how high the humidity will be, along with excellent overnight recovery into Saturday morning. Saturday will be the coolest day of the forecast period with ample moisture and a deep marine layer limiting daytime heating. Interior spots may be limited to the low 70s with 60s for most other locations and 50s right along the coast, around 10-15 degrees below normal. Cooler weather and gusty onshore winds prevail into Sunday, but the aforementioned low pivots northeastward and winds begin to weaken by Sunday evening. With the lows true departure on Monday, upper level ridging attempts to move back in but may face some push back. Ensemble members continue to trend more in favor with a troughing pattern prevailing into early week which would support a minimal to slow warming trend compared to the cooler weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1051 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 Stratus will continue to retreat to the immediate coast late this morning, resulting in VFR conditions this afternoon at most TAF sites. The exception will be HAF where IFR/MVFR stratus will linger. Expect gentle to moderate onshore breezes through the afternoon, becoming lighter overnight. Stratus will redevelop tonight into Thursday morning with some possibility of lower ceilings and not as much inland development, although this remains a low confidence forecast at this time. Vicinity of SFO...VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon. Moderate west winds are expected to develop this afternoon and evening, tapering off this evening. Stratus is expected to return to the terminal this evening between 02Z and 05Z. Stratus will be borderline MVFR/IFR ceilings, with lower confidence in category, although now leaning MVFR. Stratus should clear late Thursday morning. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Vicinity of SJC and OAK...VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon, although a few clouds will linger north of OAK. Moderate west to northwest winds will develop this afternoon, tapering off this evening. Stratus will return at OAK 01-05Z, currently favored to be IFR ceilings instead of MVFR but confidence is low. Stratus should move into SJC overnight with MVFR ceilings favored. Conditions improving to VFR mid to late morning. Monterey Bay Terminals...Generally VFR conditions this afternoon with stratus along the coast. Gentle to moderate northwest winds in the afternoon and evening. IFR stratus should return to the terminals early this evening. && .MARINE... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1051 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 Gentle to moderate winds will persist through midday with generally moderate seas. Fresh to strong breezes and rough seas will resume across the waters later today through the latter part of the week. Occasional gale-force gusts will develop along the coastal waters north of Point Reyes. Hazardous conditions for small crafts will develop this afternoon and continue through at least early Friday. Long period southwest swell will persist through the extended forecast. && .BEACHES... Updated at 1215 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 Long period southerly swell at around 16 to 18 seconds emanating from energetic storms in the Southern Hemisphere continue to affect the California coast, especially for south and southwest facing beaches. Hazardous beach conditions are advertised, specifically for moderate to steeply sloped beaches along the Pacific Coast of the North Bay, San Mateo, Santa Cruz counties. A Beach Hazards Statement for Pacific Coast beaches continues through Wednesday afternoon. Be sure to check beach conditions before you head out. Sneaker waves will run up the beach much farther than other waves, potentially catching beachgoers by surprise and resulting in people being swept into the water. Rip currents are strong enough to pull the strongest swimmers away from shore. Swim near a lifeguard if possible. Stay back from the beach, and away from jetties, piers, beachside rocks, and other infrastructure near the water. Never turn your back to the ocean! The southerly swell is expected to subside tonight into the latter half of the work week before increasing again by the weekend. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ006- 505-509-529-530. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm-SF Bay N of Bay Bridge. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for Mry Bay. Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Thursday to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. && $$ SHORT TERM...Zuber LONG TERM....Zuber AVIATION...Slagle MARINE...Slagle Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

105 FXUS66 KOTX 241734 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1034 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm temperatures continue through Wednesday. Wednesday will be our warmest day with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. - 20 to 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms over the Cascades and northern mountains Wednesday afternoon and evening. 10 to 20 percent chance in the Upper Columbia Basin. - Windy and dry Thursday with potential for critical fire weather conditions. - Weather changes arrive Friday into the weekend with much cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and rain showers. && .SYNOPSIS... Warm and dry conditions today with an increasing risk for showers and thunderstorms over the mountains. Warm and windy Thursday leading to elevated to critical fire weather concerns. The pattern shifts toward the end of the week and into the weekend as a weather system delivers much cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and rain showers for much of the region. && .DISCUSSION... Wednesday: It will be another very warm day across the Inland NW with forecast high temperatures topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s, around 1-2 degrees warmer than Tuesday. One shortwave passed through the region Tuesday night mainly delivering mid and high clouds and a few sprinkles. A slightly deeper wave is approaching from the west and will track through late this afternoon and evening. Cumulus build-ups will be more pronounced across the mountains of the Cascades and Okanogan Highlands this afternoon with a 20-40% chance for cells to develop into showers and thunderstorms. The latest HRRR has a bit more convection developing across Central WA vs previous runs and is supported by several HREF members. Surfaced CAPE ranges from 300-700 J/kg with a ribbon of 1000 K/kg along the spine of the Cascades. Consequently, we anticipate a few stronger, slow moving thunderstorms to develop over the higher terrain. These slow moving cells will be capable of pockets of 0.1-0.3 inches of rainfall with a 10-15% chance for amounts up to 0.50". This will need to be monitored near sensitive burn scars. The boundary layer over the lower elevations will remain warm and dry so any rain cooled air will bring the potential for gusty outflow winds of 30-45 mph. This is captured in the output from the hi-res models showing small outflow winds of this nature. As these outflow winds expand into the lowlands of Central WA, this may provide enough lift to create new cells around Wenatchee, Moses Lake, Coulee City, and Davenport. The CAPE in these areas does not as robust but enough to have some concern for isolated lightning strikes and additional outflow winds. Any lightning strikes will also remain a concern for new fire starts. Confidence is moderate that lightning activity will be isolated. As the aforementioned shortwave drifts east in the evening and overnight hours, the focus will shift into Northeastern WA and North Idaho with a threat for showers and storms lingering over North Idaho through much of the night. Southeastern WA and the lower Idaho Panhandle carry the lowest risk (5-10%) for convection today. Thursday-Sunday: A significant pattern change will arrive through this period. Thursday will be the start of the pattern change with the focus mainly on fire weather as breezy to gusty south to southwest winds develop ahead of a incoming cold front. Temperatures will cool a few degrees but remain warm with highs still in the mid to upper 80s. Humidity values will continue to dip into the 14-23% range. Sustained winds of 10-20 mph will be accompanied by gusts of 25-30 mph though winds to look very persistent with a well mixed profile to 9-10k ft AGL and steady 15-20kts winds throughout the layer. This will result in elevated to critical fire weather conditions and fire weather watches have been issued given the potential for new or ongoing fires to spread rapidly within our dry fuels. Fire weather concerns will lower Friday into the weekend as the cold front comes onshore bringing increasing chances for rain, much cooler temperatures, and higher humidity values. Nearly the entire Inland NW has a 60% chance for at least a hundredth of rain. When viewing the chances for a wetting rain (0.10" or more), probabilities drop toward 20% or less for across the lower Columbia Basin but the Cascades, Okanogan Highlands, Northeastern WA, and North Idaho increase to 50-80%. As the low settles over the region Saturday-Sunday, shower chances continue to retreat into the mountain districts and rising terrain of the Columbia Basin around the Palouse and Spokane Area. Nonetheless, fire indices will be on the downward trend as temperatures cool into the 60s and 70s with afternoon humidity values of 30-50%. The only caveat will be continued windy conditions, especially in the lee of the Cascades, Columbia Basin, and into the foothills of the Blue Mountains and Palouse. European ensemble means suggest Wenatchee winds will increase each day from Friday through Sunday. Monday-Wednesday: There is moderate confidence for the heat to remain subdued heading into next week with some degree of weak troughing over the Northwest. The details are still being sorted out in the models to the depth of the trough and reinforcing shot of cooler air coming from the Gulf of AK but general consensus amongst the ensembles support below normal temperatures and continued chances for mountain showers. This will come with periodically breezy conditions as well. /sb && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFs: As of 1730z isolated showers and thunderstorms were already developing along the East Slopes of the Cascades. A shortwave will move into the region Wednesday afternoon/evening supporting expanding convection into the northern mountains as well. As the cells travel off the higher terrain, gusty outflow winds will be possible within the lower elevations of Central WA. Greatest concern will be in proximity of KEAT, KMWH, KOMK, and KCQV 21-03z. These sites come with a 10-20% chance for new cells to develop along the outflow winds. Some hi-res models hint at lesser impacts at KGEG-KSFF 03-06z but still some impacts from decaying outflow winds and a small threat (~15%) for showers. A bulk of the shower and t-storm threat will retreat into North Idaho 6-12z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions at all terminals through the forecast period. Greatest uncertainty is coverage of showers and t-storms over Central and Northern WA and how outflow winds will spread into the Basin. Some hi-res models showing brief gusts of 35kts with this activity and high-based cells developing between KEAT-KGEG. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 90 57 86 53 68 48 / 0 20 10 10 80 80 Coeur d`Alene 89 59 85 55 66 49 / 0 20 10 10 90 80 Pullman 86 54 82 50 66 45 / 0 0 10 10 80 50 Lewiston 94 62 91 60 73 53 / 0 0 10 20 90 60 Colville 90 54 87 50 69 42 / 10 20 20 20 80 90 Sandpoint 87 56 84 52 64 46 / 0 20 20 10 90 90 Kellogg 86 57 82 54 64 48 / 0 20 10 10 90 80 Moses Lake 95 60 89 55 76 48 / 0 20 0 10 30 40 Wenatchee 92 65 86 60 73 54 / 20 20 0 20 50 30 Omak 94 60 89 58 74 49 / 20 20 10 10 60 80 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for Colville Reservation (Zone 702)-Eastern Columbia Basin -Palouse -Spokane Area (Zone 708)- Foothills of Central Washington Cascades (Zone 705)-Lower Palouse -Snake River (Zone 709)-Okanogan Valley (Zone 703)-Waterville Plateau (Zone 706)-Western Columbia Basin (Zone 707). ID...None. && $$

118 FXUS66 KPDT 241704 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1004 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Fire Weather Watches for WA690, WA691, and OR691 for the Columbia Basin & Yakima/Kittitas Valley region Thursday for wind and low RH. - Hot, dry conditions with breezy winds through Thursday, with stronger locally windy conditions developing Thursday. - Cooler, wetter pattern forecasted to develop Friday and into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Current satellite shows dry and mostly clear conditions prevailing through the overnight thanks to weak over-head ridging. The ridge pattern will end by Wednesday (>90% chance) and introduce a more zonal flow aloft, allowing for some isolated thunderstorms to develop across the Washington Cascade crest (10-20% chance). Dry air will stay in place through much of Thursday with breezy winds developing during the day, with stronger locally windy conditions developing Thursday. Confidence is currently medium (40-60% chance) that Red Flag Warning conditions will develop across the Columbia Basin and Yakima/Kittitas region Thursday, thus a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for WA690, WA691, and OR691. Friday will see a more cooler, wetter pattern develop Friday and through the weekend, as an area of broad troughing dips down from the coast of Alaska and British Colombia and eventually through the Pacific Northwest (70-90% chance). Guidance is in good agreement that the pattern will turn cooler and wetter by Friday (70-90% chance) bringing a relief to the heat and dry air. While the attention is currently on winds and low RH for fire weather, we will have to pay close attention for fire weather from abundant lightning. As the shortwave/trough slides to the east, NBM guidance advertises 15-25% chances of thunder developing across Central Oregon through the Blue Mountain/Eastern Mountain region. Current NBM guidance shows some storms producing 0.05" inches through 0.15" in a six-hour period, while some are forecasting less for dry thunderstorms. Exact timing/amplitude of the system is a bit unknown and could change the outcome of the QPF amounts. Will keep monitoring if RFW will be needed for any impacted fire weather zones. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... VFR conditions are forecast at all TAF sites for the next 24 hours. Winds will become breezy and gusty through the Cascade gaps this afternoon and evening with lighter more variable winds for PDT/ALW/PSC. There is a low (10-30 percent) chance of high-based showers at YKM this afternoon and evening, with an even lower chance (10 percent) of thunderstorms. The chance of rain or thunder at all other sites is less than 10 percent. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 92 60 84 52 / 0 0 0 20 ALW 93 64 86 58 / 0 0 0 10 PSC 96 62 89 56 / 0 0 0 10 YKM 95 60 87 55 / 10 10 0 20 HRI 95 63 86 55 / 0 0 0 20 ELN 91 59 81 50 / 20 10 0 20 RDM 88 49 81 47 / 0 10 0 50 LGD 89 56 84 53 / 0 0 0 20 GCD 91 53 84 50 / 0 0 0 50 DLS 95 63 83 57 / 0 0 0 20 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for WAZ690-691. OR...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for ORZ691. && $$ DISCUSSION...95 AVIATION...86

470 FXUS65 KREV 240855 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 155 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Warm with breezy afternoons through Thursday. * Gusty winds with a strong cold front on Friday & Saturday. Elevated fire weather concerns for W.Nevada. * Temperatures cooling 10-20 degrees below average over the weekend with light showers possible. && .DISCUSSION... Temperatures dip 2-3 degrees today but will remain seasonably warm through Thursday with highs in the low-to-mid 90s across western Nevada with upper 70s to low 80s for Sierra valleys. Afternoon cumulus will once again develop across elevated terrain, some may be deep enough to pop a few light showers (15% chance) across N.Lassen/N.Washoe counties this afternoon. Otherwise very dry conditions with late afternoon zephyr winds will prevail with gusts of 20-25 mph this afternoon, increasing to 20-30 mph by Thursday afternoon. A major pattern change is expected this weekend as an unusually strong cold front (by June standards) sweeps through much of the Great Basin. This front will take us from being about 10 degrees above average to around 20 degrees below average by Sunday which means we can expect strong winds in between. In general, we are looking at widespread 20-50% chances to see wind gusts over 40 mph across the E.Sierra and W.Nevada on Friday and Saturday with Saturday showing stronger sustained wind potential around 20-30 mph as surface gradients tighten with the arrival of the front. Fire weather concerns will be at the forefront for western Nevada as these areas will see the best combination of strong winds, low humidity, and dry fuels. Fire Weather Watches remain in effect for Friday and Saturday. See the Fire Discussion below for additional details. In addition to fire weather concerns, winds could disrupt outdoor recreation, create hazardous boating conditions, and impact road and aviation travel. High profile vehicles could be impacted by strong crosswinds, and blowing dust may reduce visibility in areas downwind of desert sinks. Precipitation will mainly concentrate along the cold front Saturday into early Sunday morning. Showers chances will largely remain northward of I-80 with a 10-20% chance of seeing up to 0.10" of rainfall with 30-50% odds for areas across N.Lassen County into the Surprise Valley/far N.Washoe County. Snow levels will fall to around 7000-8000` from the Tahoe Basin to the Oregon border which means light snow showers are not out of the question for higher elevations of the N.Sierra and Warner mountains. The airmass behind the front has temperatures of around -4C at 700mb which is near observed minimums for the date. This means our temperatures will fall to around 15-20 degrees below late June averages Saturday and Sunday. While not cold so to speak, highs in the lower 70s for this time of year have a 75% chance of setting record cold high temperatures on Sunday. Sierra valleys by Sunday morning could see 60-70% odds of overnight lows falling below freezing. Even Carson Valley communities could see a 20-25% chance hitting the freezing. Fuentes && .AVIATION... * VFR conditions with typical west/northwest breezes each afternoon with gusts around 20-25 knots, increasing to 25-30 knots by Thursday afternoon. * A strong cold front Friday and Saturday will produce strong and gusty winds across the E.Sierra and W.Nevada terminals. Gusts of 30-40kts will be possible along with increased likelihood of mountain wave turbulence, LLWS, and areas of reduced visibility due to blowing dust mainly around KLOL, KNFL, and KHTH. Fuentes && .FIRE WEATHER... * Unusually strong cold front for late June projected to bring areas of critical fire weather conditions Friday and Saturday. Fire Weather Watches remain in effect for the Sierra Front eastward into the Hwy 95 corridor. * High confidence in seeing sustained winds 20-30 mph with gusts above 40 mph both days, W/SW direction on Friday and W/NW on Saturday. Saturday`s winds may end up being more of a sustained wind concern versus just the gusts. Almost an April-like pattern in late June. * For areas in the watch along and north of a Carson City to Lovelock line, including Reno, the humidity may be just above RFW criteria, around 15-25% for afternoon minimums. But with plenty of dry fuels/grasses and recent significant lightning event last Friday with holdover potential, winds of this magnitude may lessen the impact of slightly higher RH. * E.Sierra fire weather zones are also expected to see these same strong winds with ridgetops seeing wind gust potential exceeding 80 mph. However, fuels have not been reported to be critical and minimum RH is expected to be around 30-40%. However, the exception could be along Hwy 6 and 395 below 7000` in Mono County where RH could dip into the teens. * Humidity recoveries Friday night into Saturday morning look good (45-75%), but winds will remain breezy for mid-slopes and ridges. -Chris/Fuentes && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Saturday evening NVZ420. Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Saturday evening NVZ423-429. CA... && $$

505 FXUS66 KSTO 231846 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1146 AM PDT Tue Jun 23 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm and dry this week with minor to moderate HeatRisk. Breezy onshore winds each day will provide relief for the Delta/Sacramento Area. - A weather system moving across the Pacific NW into the Great Basin will bring breezy onshore winds Friday into Saturday with a few showers north, followed by the potential for a north wind event Sunday into Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Warm and dry conditions expected today into Wednesday as ridging remains in control of the large scale pattern over the area. Above normal temperatures will rule with 90s to low 100s across the Valley. This will lead to minor to moderate HeatRisk but no concerns for heat headlines. Delta Breeze will continue to bring evening relief thru the Delta into the Sacramento area. Min RHs will be in the teens to low 20s but wind will remain below RFW criteria. Wednesday afternoon will see a nonzero chance of a mountain shower across the northern Shasta County border but current models keep any developed system north of our area, tracking eastward. Thursday is a transition day as cooling trend begins and continues into the weekend. A deep trough from the Gulf of Alaska will slowly dig into the Pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend and gradually move east into the Great Basin. This will serve to increase onshore flow for our area Friday into Saturday with breezy southerly winds across the area. This will bring a bit of moisture with it with the chance for a few showers across far northern portions of the area and southern Cascades. At this time, does not look like a big signal for convective activity but will keep an eye on trends. Current precipitation depict a glancing blow for our area over the mountains Friday afternoon into Saturday with still minimal precipitation impacts. As trough departs, pressure gradient strengthens, leading to the potential for a north wind event Sunday into Monday. Still some uncertainty in ensemble solutions with timing and strength of the trough but will need to monitor for the need for any fire weather headlines as we get closer to the weekend. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. Winds 6 to 12 kts in the Valley into 06z Wednesday before becoming light and variable overnight outside of winds through the Delta to the Sacramento sites which will gusts up to 15-25 kts until 12z Wednesday but linger in the Delta. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

367 FXUS65 KMSO 241853 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1253 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Summer-like conditions through Thursday with highs in the 80s, 90s in lower valleys of north-central Idaho. - Showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage each day through Friday. - Dramatic shift to colder and wet weather this weekend, as temperatures fall 20-30 degrees. - Significant hypothermia risk across backcountry and high elevation areas with "Winter-like" conditions and snow down to 6000-7000 feet. The Northern Rockies will be under the influence of a westerly flow pattern aloft the next few days. Pacific disturbances will move through the region, with large scale ascent bringing an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. Forecast soundings and surface observations suggest the highest instability by this afternoon and evening across far northwest Montana and across Lemhi County into southwest Montana. Lightning and gusty outflow winds are the primary storm threats given moisture and instability centered aloft and dry air in the low levels. Furthermore, high- resolution models suggest a tightening pressure gradient along the divide by sunset, leading to higher confidence for easterly winds to develop on west facing slopes of mountain ranges along the divide. This happened yesterday evening as well, with easterly wind gusts of 20-25 mph observed along the east shore of Flathead Lake. This evenings pressure gradient appears stronger, bringing the risk for gusts of 30-35 mph on Flathead Lake, Swan Lake and in the Many Lakes region within Flathead County. Stronger thunderstorms enter the picture late Thursday morning through the afternoon as atmospheric instability increases (CAPE of 750-1000 J/kg). A Pacific disturbance will focus activity across northwest Montana (I-90 northward) and along the Continental Divide. These storms will be capable of brief heavy rain, small hail (up to 0.50 in diameter), gusty winds, and lightning. A significant change remains on track Friday through the weekend as a closed low drops southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska across the Northern Rockies. Confidence is high for temperatures to drop 20-30 degrees by Saturday and Sunday, with falling snow levels near 6,000-7,000 feet. Those heading into the backcountry and higher elevations should prepare for winter-like conditions. Cold rain, and or wet snow, will bring an elevated risk for hypothermia. Furthermore, the weight of heavy wet snow may lead to downed branches, trees, with prolonged rain bringing a higher risk for rockfall across backcountry roadways. This system will bring widespread rain, with valley areas seeing generally 0.25-1.25 inches of precipitation. Higher elevations, especially along the divide and in Glacier Park may see higher totals, with high-end (90th percentile) NBM guidance suggesting up to 3 inches of precipitation. Precipitation forecasts remain difficult to pin down given variability with mesoscale banding features along the N-NW track of the upper level low. Nonetheless, the main message remains the same, those with outdoor plans should prepare for a significant weather change this weekend! && .AVIATION...There will be two areas where shower or thunderstorms could form this afternoon and evening: Far northwest Montana and also southern Lemhi County. The thunderstorms will have limited instability, but impacts will be lightning and gusty winds to 30 knots. An easterly wind gradient tightens around 25/0300Z(9 PM MDT) across western Montana and then wanes after midnight. KMSO has a 40% chance for wind gusts exceeding 25 knots between 9 PM this evening and 2 AM MDT Thursday. An upper wave will trigger showers and a few thunderstorms capable of wind gusts near 25 knots later tonight, possibly impacting KGPI and KBTM. More showers and thunderstorms will develop by 25/1700Z(11 AM MDT) which could be more widespread lasting into the afternoon hours Thursday. Storms could produce lightning, small hail, gusty winds and brief heavy rain. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

408 FXUS65 KBOI 241800 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 1200 PM MDT Wed Jun 24 2026 .UPDATE...Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... - Temperatures continuing 5 to 10 degrees above normal through Thursday. - Slight chance of thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday morning across eastern OR and southwest ID. - Pattern change to cooler and unsettled beginning Friday as a trough arrives from the Gulf of Alaska. - Temperatures around 15 to 20 degrees below normal Saturday and Sunday. - Significant precipitation possible Friday through Sunday. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday Night/... Issued 408 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2026 Temperatures will remain around 5 to 10 degrees above normal through Thursday. A shortwave moves across the Pacific NW late this afternoon, with increasing high clouds and isolated showers and thunderstorms in eastern OR, and along the NV border in ID this afternoon and evening. The system will move over Idaho overnight, bringing a chance of showers and slight chance of thunderstorms overnight into Thursday morning. Clouds clear out midday Thursday before increasing clouds late from the next system arriving from the Gulf of Alaska. A cold front moves through southeast OR and southwest ID on late Thursday evening into Friday morning. It will take a while for conditions to moisten up in the low levels, as showers increase across the area and become widespread in coverage. As the main cold front moves through on Friday, partial clearing behind the front will lead to unstable conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening on Friday. Temperatures on Friday lower to around 10 degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM /Saturday through Wednesday/... Issued 408 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2026 Cool and showery conditions continue on Saturday and Sunday with a slight chance of thunderstorms as the trough slowly moves overhead. Wetting rains possible Saturday and Sunday with temperatures around 15-20 degrees below normal. Significant precipitation possible with this system, depending on where the track of the system goes. As it stands right now, precipitation amounts of up to 1 to 1.25 inch possible over the central ID mountains, with lesser amounts in eastern OR, where less than 0.25 inch expected. Light snow possible on the peaks above 7000 feet Sunday morning. Conditions dry out with breezy conditions on Monday and Tuesday as the system moves northeast into Manitoba. This system will keep temperatures below normal under cool northwest flow aloft. && .AVIATION /18Z Wednesday through Thursday/... Issued 1158 AM MDT WED JUN 24 2026 VFR with scattered mid-high clouds. High density altitude this afternoon from heat. Isolated showers/thunderstorms developing this afternoon in eastern OR and southwest ID near the NV border. Thunder capable of erratic outflows to 40 kt. Surface winds: W-NW 10-20 kt this afternoon, gusts up to 30kt near KONO and KBKE this evening through late night. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-SW 5-15 kt. KBOI...VFR with FEW-SCT high clouds. High density altitude this afternoon from heat. Isolated showers and a slight chance (10-15%) of thunderstorms late tonight through Thursday morning. Surface winds: NW 5-10kt this afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt from around 20Z to Thu/02Z. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise AVIATION.....JY SHORT TERM...KA LONG TERM....KA

070 FXUS65 KLKN 241802 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1102 AM PDT Wed Jun 24 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible in Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening * Critical fire weather condtions are likely in most of Northern and Central Nevada Friday * Strong wind gusts are expected throughout Northern and Central Nevada Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening * Much cooler this weekend * A Frost Advisory may be required for the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada both Saturday night and Sunday night && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through Tuesday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A trough of low pressure will move eastward across the Silver State this afternoon. The passage of this trough of low pressure should trigger isolated to scattered thunderstorms in Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. A few of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 55 mph, small hail, and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. There is a possibility (15-29%) of damaging wind gusts in Eastern White Pine County this afternoon into this evening. Zonal flow aloft is anticipated Thursday and Friday. Elevated fire weather conditions are expected in Eastern Nevada Thursday due to west wind gusts near 30 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 8 percent. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for most of Northern and Central Nevada Friday due to west wind gusts near 40 mph and minimum relative humidity values as low as 10 percent. A cyclone aloft will meander around the Pacific Northwest this weekend. A Wind Advisory may be required for Northern and Central Nevada Saturday. Much cooler temperatures are anticipated this weekend. By Sunday afternoon, high temperatures throughout Northern and Central Nevada will be sixteen to eighteen degrees below seasonal values. Low temperatures across Northern and Central Nevada both Saturday night and Sunday night will be eleven to thirteen degrees below seasonal values. A Frost Advisory may be required for the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada both Saturday night and Sunday night. Here are probabilities of minimum temperatures of 35 degrees or lower for select locations in Northern and Central Nevada Sunday night: Montello - 80% Spring Creek - 75% Wells - 75% Eureka - 75% Ruby Lake - 75% Ely - 70% Carlin - 70% Elko - 65% Ruth - 55% Jackpot - 50% A warming trend is expected Monday and Tuesday. Despite this warming trend, temperatures will remain below seasonal values. Dry weather will prevail early next week. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence regarding a few strong to severe thunderstorms in Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. High forecast confidence in critical fire weather condtions in most of Northern and Central Nevada Friday. High forecast confidence regarding strong wind gusts throughout Northern and Central Nevada Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Moderate forecast confidence in much cooler temperatures this weekend. Moderate forecast confidence regarding widespread frost in the valleys of Northern and Central Nevada both Saturday night and Sunday night. No deviations from the NBM model output. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through at least the next 24 hours. VCTS at KELY and KENV this afternoon into this evening. South to southwest wind gusts near 25 knots expected at KELY and KBAM this afternoon into this evening. Southwest to west wind gusts near 20 knots anticipated at KEKO, KWMC, KENV, and KTPH this afternoon into this evening. && .FIRE WEATHER... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in Eastern Nevada this afternoon into this evening. The primary thunderstorm hazards will be wind gusts near 55 mph and dangerous cloud to ground lightning strikes. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for most of Northern and Central Nevada Friday due to west wind gusts near 40 mph and minimum relative humidity as low as 10 percent. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for NVZ 424, 425, 426, 427, 438, 469, and 470 && $$ 87