695 FXUS66 KSEW 190856 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 156 AM PDT Sun Apr 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS... Mostly dry and mild conditions will continue into early next week, before chances for precipitation increase across western Washington through the middle of the week. Drying and warming conditions are favored to return by next weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Southerly flow aloft will develop over western Washington today as a low pressure system drops southward along the Pacific Coast. This will allow for temperatures to continue on a warming trend, warming several degrees from yesterday. Most lowland locations away from water will see highs in the low to mid 70s, with some areas along the Cascade Foothills nearing 80 degrees. By Monday, split flow will develop aloft as the low pressure system moves southward towards the California Coast. This will allow for steady conditions on Monday across western Washington, with temperatures once again peaking in the low to mid 70s across much of the lowlands and in the 60s along coastlines. As the low begins to push inland, wrap around moisture may generate light shower activity over the western Cascades late monday. The upper level low will begin to shift inland overnight Monday into Tuesday, which will bring increasing chances for rain across western Washington, particularly for areas south and west of the Puget Sound. As moisture continues to be advected northward, chances for widespread rain increase across the region. Unstable conditions may produce a few lightning strikes over the Cascades on Tuesday, with cooler temperatures peaking in the upper 50s to low 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Chances for widespread precipitation continue on Wednesday as the low pressure system to the south slowly moves inland. By Thursday, the system will be over the Intermountain West, pulling most of the associated moisture west of the Cascades. Ensembles and operational models remain in good agreement on Friday and heading into the weekend, with potential for warm and dry conditions to return. 15 && .AVIATION... A ridge of high pressure will continue to shift eastward today as an upper level low remains off the coast, sinking south. This will result in southerly flow aloft with occasional shifting to the southeast this afternoon and evening. Surface winds at most terminals have become light and variable and will remain that way into the early morning. Obs showing winds with a consistent direction are mostly northerly. As winds increase to 4-8 kts by mid- morning, most terminals will remain north to northeasterly. VFR conditions area-wide this early morning and expected to remain that way. The aforementioned low pressure off the coast will keep high level clouds in place overhead, but should not have any significant impact. KSEA...VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period. Northerly winds 4-8 kts for much of the forecast although some shifts to the northeast are expected, especially this evening and tonight. 18 && .MARINE... Low pressure will track south over the offshore waters today with offshore flow over western WA into Monday. Onshore flow resumes on Tuesday as the low weakens further then shifts inland. Seas generally 4-6 ft for much of the day, building slightly to 5-7 ft tonight. A more significant increase to seas is expected Wednesday, where waves will build to over 10 ft in the outer coastal waters. 18 && .HYDROLOGY... River flooding is not expected over the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. PZ...None. && $$

503 FXUS66 KPQR 190444 AAA AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 944 PM PDT Sat Apr 18 2026 ...Updated aviation discussion... .SYNOPSIS...High pressure overhead is keeping northwest Oregon and southwest Washington warm and dry today. Out over the Pacific, a storm system is organizing and is expected to become a slow-moving closed low late this weekend into early next week. That will gradually bring more clouds on Monday, then a better chance for cooler, wetter weather by the middle of the week. Confidence is increasing that showers become more likely late Monday into Tuesday as the system begins to spread moisture inland. Wednesday still looks like the coolest and most showery day overall. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Sunday night...Thin clouds high in the sky have been streaming across the area at times today (most noticeable near the coast and into southwest Washington), but conditions remain dry and temperatures are still warming up nicely inland. Expect inland highs mainly in the lower to mid 70s today, while the coast stays cooler, generally upper 50s to mid 60s. Later today and tonight, a weakening front will approach the coastal waters. Most of the moisture and lift look like they will remain offshore, so for most locations the main change will be increasing clouds this evening and overnight. While light showers will most likely stay over the ocean, there is a small chance a brief shower could brush the immediate north coast late tonight into Sunday morning. No rain is expected for inland areas. Cloud cover tonight will keep temperatures milder than this morning. Lows should be mostly in the mid to upper 40s inland (a few cooler valleys could dip a bit lower), and generally in the 40s near the coast. With clouds and warmer nighttime temperatures, frost is not expected over at least the next couple mornings. Sunday looks similar to today; warm and dry for most areas, with more thin high clouds around. Inland highs should again reach the low to mid 70s. Parts of the Portland/Vancouver metro and nearby communities could still reach 80 degrees if clouds thin enough during the warmest part of the day, but that will depend on how quickly cloud cover thickens (30-60% chance of daytime temperatures exceeding 80 degrees). There is moderate to high confidence that these high clouds will remain thin, allowing for good daytime heating. Coastal highs stay in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Sunday night remains drys inland with lows mainly in the 40s. && .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...On Monday, the offshore low pressure system will start to have more influence on our weather. Expect more cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures compared to the weekend. Highs should generally be in the upper 60s to near 70 inland, and upper 50s to low 60s along the coast. Rain shower chances increase late Monday into Tuesday as the system begins to move closer and spread moisture inland, with the first steadier showers most likely over the higher terrain and the southern Willamette Valley. Even so, precipitation through Monday looks light overall, generally around 0.05 to 0.15 inch where showers occur. Tuesday is still the trickiest day. While exact timing still needs refinement, confidence is higher that at least scattered showers will reach more of the area sometime late Monday into Tuesday, rather than staying largely offshore. If showers do begin Tuesday, they would most likely show up first along the coast and in areas farther south and west, then spread inland later. Confidence is higher for Tuesday night into Wednesday: this is the most likely period for a more widespread cooler, and showery pattern across the area. The Coast Range and Cascades will be favored for more persistent showers due to terrain enhancement. While rain amounts remain uncertain, expect around 0.25 to 0.75 inches in the lowlands and around 1 to 1.75 inches in the Coast Range and Cascades from 5 PM Tuesday to 5 PM Wednesday. By Thursday and Friday, the pattern looks like it will trend drier again with temperatures slowly warming back up into the mid 60s and maybe 70s by Friday. A few leftover showers near the mountains are possible early in that period, but overall conditions should improve late week. ~12 && .AVIATION...High pressure will maintain widespread VFR conditions through the TAF period with scattered to broken high clouds around 20-25 kft. Winds will remain light and variable less than 5 kt, except for easterly winds 5-10 kt at KTTD. Between 12-20z Sun, KTTD-KDLS pressure gradients will tighten, strengthening easterly winds through the Columbia River Gorge with occasional gusts up to 20 kt at KTTD. Northerly winds for the rest of the Willamette Valley and southwesterly winds along the coast, all under 10 kt. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with CIGs above 20-25 kft through the TAF period. Variable winds around 5 kt through early Sunday morning, turning more easterly after 15z Sun and remaining light. -10/23 && .MARINE...Benign conditions continue through the weekend. Southerly to southwesterly winds between 5-15 kt continue today with seas under 5 ft. Winds will weaken and become east to southeast by early Sunday morning. Winds then remain light through early next week with seas increasing by a few feet, but staying under 10 ft. An area of low pressure sitting off the coast will move inland during the middle of next week. This will bring onshore flow, showers, and increasing winds and seas. However, uncertainty remains regarding exact wind speeds and wave heights. The placement of the low will determine what conditions materialize across the waters. The current forecast favors a period of increasing west to northwest winds late Tuesday into Wednesday with wind gusts reaching 20-25 kt or stronger by Wednesday afternoon. In fact, there is a 50-75% chance for max wind gusts over 25 kt. The highest probabilities are beyond 30 NM offshore. Seas are expected to reach at least 10-12 ft by late Wednesday, however there is a 40-70% chance seas will peak over 12 ft over the northern and central outer waters. There is a 1-5% chance seas will peak as high as 15 ft, which represents the worst case scenario. Very strong ebb currents will continue across the Columbia River Bar each morning through Tuesday. With seas expected to build slightly by early next week, a steep ebb chop may necessitate Small Craft Advisories in the hours around peak flow each day. -23 && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. PZ...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

193 FXUS66 KMFR 190535 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1035 PM PDT Sat Apr 18 2026 .Updated AVIATION Discussion... && .AVIATION...19/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with thickening high clouds and generally light winds tonight. Southerly winds become gusty Sunday afternoon, especially in the Shasta Valley and over the East Side. Even portions of the Rogue Valley will get breezy. Precipitation chances remain low tonight through Sunday. However, some light rain and lower ceilings could impact the marine waters. Eventually, higher rain chances and lowering ceilings move onto the coast Sunday night. -Spilde/BR-y && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 433 PM PDT Sat Apr 18 2026/ DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)... Key Points: * Only minor impacts expected the next several days * Warm, above normal temperatures this weekend * Low pressure enters the region Sunday - Precip chances start Sunday and continue through Wednesday - Isolated thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Wednesday * Drying trend towards the end of the week Further Details: The forecast area will be under high pressure today with a transition occuring tomorrow as an upper low strengthens off the coast. This low eventually becomes a cut-off from the main flow and will meander over the ocean/west coast for a couple days before coming inland Tuesday into Wednesday. Initially, we will see precipitation chances increase tomorrow along/near the coast and eventually spreading west to east through midweek. We are not seeing a signal for heavy rain through this stretch, but rather a consistent light rain for a few days. Rainfall totals for 72 hours ending Thursday morning could end up around 1.00"-1.50" for the higher end amounts. Highest amounts are expected along/near the coast and northern California. Cascades could also see the higher amounts of QPF before switching over to snow. Westside valleys and eastside areas will be considerably less with 72 hour totals only around 0.25"-0.50". MUCAPE values on Tuesday are around 200-500 J/kg, so we are expecting at least some isolated thunder. MUCAPE on Wednesday is only around a couple hundred J/kg so likely less chance for lightning. No expecting any severe weather but lightning and occasional strong gusts (30-45 mph) will be possible through this stretch. Snow levels eventually drop low enough Tuesday night for snow accumulation over the Cascades, eastside areas, and northern California. Through Wednesday, snow amounts wont be enough to warrant any hazard products at this time. That said, 48 hour totals through Thursday morning could end up being around 4-8 inches with the higher end amounts over the Cascades, mountains of Siskiyou County, and Warner mountains. By Thursday, upper level low which will bring precipitation through midweek will be absorbed back into the main flow. A dry north/northwesterly flow will become evident over the forecast area. While the NBM holds onto spotty PoPs Thursday onward, we are anticipating precipitation chances to dwindle Thursday through at least parts of next weekend. Models differences in the extended come to fruition around Saturday. For example, the EC wants to develop a weak area of low pressure which could bring precipitation Saturday but the Canadian and the GFS both remain dry. At this time, confidence is low on the details after Friday. -Guerrero MARINE...Updated 1230 PM PDT Saturday, April 18, 2026...Southerly winds will increase tonight, but with relatively low seas. Low pressure offshore will bring a return of active weather Sunday into Wednesday, with increasing swell and periods of gusty south winds. Winds are likely to be strongest from Sunday morning through Monday evening with a period of steep seas hazardous to small craft mostly beyond 10 NM from shore. Conditions should improve a bit Tuesday, then increasing NW swell should bring an increase in seas again Wednesday into Thursday. -Spilde && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Sunday to 8 AM PDT Monday for PZZ370-376. && $$

849 FXUS66 KEKA 190742 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1242 AM PDT Sun Apr 19 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A cutoff low is approaching the region. Rain chances increase late Sunday and chances will continue through mid next week. A period of drier weather is then expected to begin late next week. && .DISCUSSION...Early Sunday morning, satellite depicts an upper level trough over the NE Pacific. A cold core upper low will cut off from the flow and proceed toward the California Coast late Sunday. Rain chances begin to increase late Sunday, along with southerly winds. An increase in moist, southerly flow and some associated upglide instability may coax out some light precipitation early this morning. Moderate to some instances of heavy rainfall will arrive Monday, particularly with some smaller scale disturbances which will rotate in around the periphery of the cutoff low. Precipitable water values will be high, rising to 200% of normal, and this increases the chances for some heavier rainfall rates. Southerly winds will turn gusty at times Sunday and Monday, mainly for the ridges. The isolated disturbances that pass through may locally increase winds at times. NBM is struggling to resolve meaningful probabilities for gusts over 30 mph, but there is some upper level wind support in the 925 mb level (around 2000 ft) for some locally gustier winds. The highest probabilities for gusty winds are over coastal headlands and higher ridges. In general 1 to 2 inches of rain, with locally 3 inches over some of the ridges on the King Range and southward facing terrain, is likely from Sunday night to Tuesday night. NBM chances for over 1.5 inches of rainfall are moderate to high for the King Range and southward (60 to 80 %). Snow levels will drop to around 5000 ft, and some light snow is possible over Scott Mountain pass in far northern Trinity County. The cold core of the low will cross over N CA Tuesday. The steepened lapse rates, broad ascent, and increased instability will bring a chance for thunderstorms (15 to 25%). Soundings are resolving some relatively high CAPE for the region of 300 to over 500 J/kg for the interior, mainly focused over and south of Cape Mendcino. The increased winds around the low will generate effective shear to 30 kts. These conditions will bring a more favorable chance for some stronger storms capable of hail over the southern portion of the region through Mendocino and Lake counties, but the exact placement of the low may nudge the greater threat north or even south out of the area over Sonoma County or the Sacramento Valley. Soundings show more of "skinny" CAPE profiles for the coastal areas north of Cape Mendocino, and thunderstorm coverage for those areas may be more limited to what wraps in from the southeast. Veering flow is also noted south of Cape Mendocino along the Mendocino coast, and this will have to be watched for any potential for weak rotation in any storms. Chances for at least additional showers may linger into Thursday when a weak shortwave moves through behind the departing low. Generally dry weather is likely thereafter, with perhaps a weak disturbance bringing a chance for a shower or two at times. JJW && .AVIATION...Abundant high and mid layer clouds in advance of a frontal boundary will continue into Sunday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Sunday. MVFR ceilings in light showers or a few sprinkles will be possible (30% chance) after about 20/00Z. South to southeast winds aloft, 1500-2000 feet AGL, will also increase through the day in advance of an approaching frontal boundary. It is not very unstable or turbulent for these stronger winds to mix down and impact the forecast terminals. Laminar stable flow over the coastal ranges may yield occasional gusts to 25-30kt over the higher elevations with perhaps some turbulence for small and light weight aircraft. Chance for MVFR conditions will increase Sunday night and Monday as rain intensity and lower level moisture increases. && .MARINE...Southerly to southeasterly winds will increase in advance of a slow moving frontal boundary on Sunday. Strongest wind gusts, up to 25-30 kt, will most likely occur during the afternoon and evening hours on Sunday. A secondary south-southest speed max will develop as the boundary pivots in response to an upstream trough later Sunday night into Monday morning. Strongest wind gusts during this time from 06Z-18Z appears to be around Cape Mendo and over Mendocino waters. S-SE fetch will most likely limit steep wind wave generation to 5 to 7 feet at 7 seconds. On Monday, west to northwest swell will build to 7 to 9 ft at 12 to 13 seconds. The combination of lingering S-SE wind waves around 4 ft may yield seas around 10 feet. The low and frontal system will begin to shift southward on Tue and NW to N winds should make a come back Tue night into Wed. Most ensemble members indicate high pressure building offshore as 500mb heights rise behind the departing low mid to late week. North winds will most likely increase toward the end the week (Thu and Fri) to at least small craft advisory strength (gusts 25-30kt). N-NW seas will also build in response the steady north winds. && .COASTAL FLOODING...A new moon cycle is bringing higher than usual tidal swings. A near 1 foot positive tidal anomaly is also contributing to higher tides. Slackening northerly winds and increasing southerly winds may further increase the anomaly. The high tide plus anomaly may yield a high tide near 8.8 ft at the North Spit gauge near 1 AM Sunday morning. A coastal flood advisory has been issued to highlight this. High tides will likely near this value again near 2 AM Monday morning. && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for CAZ103. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ415. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 AM PDT Monday for PZZ470-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

348 FXUS66 KMTR 190447 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 947 PM PDT Sat Apr 18 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 935 PM PDT Sat Apr 18 2026 - Seasonally warm temperatures Sunday - Cooler temperatures, beneficial rainfall, and isolated thunderstorms expected Monday through Wednesday && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 935 PM PDT Sat Apr 18 2026 (Tonight through Monday) Satellite imagery shows high clouds continuing to cover the Bay Area and Central Coast tonight, which are expected to continue to push through the region in the overnight period before steadily thinning and scattering Sunday morning. Low temperatures tonight are expected to hover in the middle 40s to lower 50s across the region, perhaps a few degrees warmer than the current forecast if the high level cloud cover is enough to inhibit radiational cooling and reflect thermal energy back to the surface. Today will be a day of temperatures close to the seasonal averages, with the inland valleys reaching highs in the 70s, the Bays seeing highs in the middle 60s to lower 70s, and the Pacific coast hovering around the upper 50s to the lower 60s. A gentle onshore breeze with a southwesterly component will develop during the afternoon, with the breezy winds persisting into the night as a cold front approaches the region. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 935 PM PDT Sat Apr 18 2026 (Monday night through next Saturday) The focus of the seven-day outlook continues to be centered around the cold front coming through the Bay Area and Central Coast for the early part of the work week. Pre-frontal rain showers are expected to arrive sometime Monday morning across the North Bay and continue to spread southward through the day, with the main frontal band coming through later on Monday into Tuesday morning. Behind the front, and with the associated upper level low coming through northern California, the newly arrived cold pool will allow for a chance of isolated to scattered thunderstorms through Tuesday afternoon and evening, with probabilities ranging from around 20 to 30 percent across the region. Lingering showers and chances for isolated thunderstorms (up to 15% probability) continue through Wednesday, and should move out of the region by Wednesday night. Through all of this, high temperatures will dip into the lower to middle 60s in the lower elevations to the 50s across the higher elevations, and rain totals will range from 0.5-1.5" across the interior valleys and most of the Bay Area and Monterey Bay regions, to around 1.5-3" in the coastal ranges and the interior mountains of the North Bay. This should be mostly beneficial across the region, but some minor nuisance flooding is possible in urban and poor drainage areas if heavy rain showers or thunderstorms develop. As the frontal system passes, temperatures will warm slightly into a rather dry latter part of the week, back to around the seasonal averages rather similar to today`s highs. Extended guidance from the Climate Prediction Center leans towards temperatures and rain totals above seasonal averages for the last week of April. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 935 PM PDT Sat Apr 18 2026 Broken to overcast high clouds continue and will persist through the TAF period. A slow moving cold front over the Eastern Pacific will gradually slide towards the coast over the next couple days. This will gradually shift winds to a southerly direction and eventually bring some rain and widespread mid-level ceilings. In the meantime there is a decent chance for marine layer stratus to creep in overnight, particularly at STS, HAF, MRY and SNS. While not in the TAF explicitly, SFO, OAK, and SJC have a slight chance of a sunrise stratus surprise as well. Vicinity of SFO...IFR ceilings just formed at HAF, but they will likely struggle to cross the Peninsula overnight. That being said, there is 20-30% chance of MVFR ceilings between 13-17Z. As the cold front approaches, winds will tend to be just south of west Sunday afternoon, rather than the typical WNW. SFO Bridge Approach...Persistent high clouds similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...The southern terminals have the best chance for ceiling impacts Sunday morning with more low level moisture already in place. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Friday) Issued at 935 PM PDT Sat Apr 18 2026 A slow moving cold front will approach the coast through Monday, gradually flipping the wind direction southerly over the next 24 hours before increasing to a fresh breeze Sunday night through Monday as some rain moves in. After the front passes, the associated low pressure system will move through the coastal waters, bringing a slight chance for thunderstorms on Tuesday. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM to 3 PM PDT Monday for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to 3 PM PDT Monday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...DialH LONG TERM....DialH AVIATION...Flynn MARINE...Flynn Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

665 FXUS66 KOTX 190801 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 101 AM PDT Sun Apr 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry, with warming temperatures through Monday. - Increasing risk for showers and thunderstorms Tuesday. - Light to moderate rains Wednesday, with a chance for thunderstorms. && .SYNOPSIS... Dry, warm conditions through Monday. Unsettled weather returns Tuesday into Wednesday next week, with potential for some moderate rains. && .DISCUSSION... Today through Tuesday morning: A ridge centered over the state of Washington will result in mostly dry and warming conditions with little to no impacts through early Tuesday morning. High temperatures will rise into the mid 70s with some isolated low 80s by Monday. Low temperatures will rise into the high 40s by Monday night. Tuesday through Thursday: Chances for precipitation increase as a low pressure system nears the PNW coast and moves inland over the California/Oregon border. By midday Tuesday, PoPs will have increased across the forecast area. As the low pressure system moves further inland and to the northeast, heights will lower across the eastern third of Washington and the Idaho Panhandle through Wednesday. Paired with a surface low resulting in a frontal passage, much of the heavier precipitation associated with the low will be confined to this area, though the majority of the forecast area will see at least a wetting rain (0.10 inches) by Wednesday evening. Wednesday morning through Thursday morning, much of the Idaho Panhandle and southeast Washington see 0.5 inches of rain. Isolated higher rainfall totals nearing 0.75 inches of rain are possible in the WA/ID Palouse and in the foothills of the Central ID Panhandle. This will lead to rises on rivers and streams, and possible nuisance flooding in poor drainage areas. In particular, Kootenai River at Bonners Ferry is forecast to go into Action Stage by early Thursday morning. Stehekin River is seeing ongoing hydrologic issues, and is expected to reach Minor Flood Stage by Monday. Aside from the rain, there are a few other characteristics of this weather pattern that will result in impacts across the area. Snow levels with this system will be very high, starting at 8000 feet and lowering to 4500-5000 feet by Thursday. Much of this snow will be above pass level. Lookout Pass does have a chance of an inch or so of snow through Wednesday through Thursday. Bottom line: expect little to no wintry travel impacts along mountain passes. Chances for thunderstorms increase, particularly on Tuesday as temperatures will still be warm ahead of the incoming frontal passage. CAPE values are modest on Tuesday night, with 300-500 J/kg expected through Tuesday evening. Main risks with these thunderstorms will be gusty outflow winds and small hail. With the frontal passage, winds will increase Wednesday afternoon, especially across the Cascades, Okanogan Valley and Highlands, Waterville Plateau, Moses Lake, Basin, and northern Blues areas, with gusts 20-25 mph expected and locally higher wind gusts near 35-40 mph. Additionally, high temperatures will drop considerably, nearly 15-20 degrees, from Tuesday to Wednesday. Low temperatures will not see quite as dramatic a drop, though it will still be noticeable at 10-15 degrees. Friday through Sunday: By Friday, the low pressure system will have moved out of the area and heights will have increased due to a ridge off the coast of Canada. This is where clusters and long term models diverge. There is little agreement in how far the higher heights move inland. However, even with this disagreement, there will overall be a warming and drying trend through next weekend with the departure of the low. /AS && .AVIATION... 06Z TAFS: VFR conditions with mostly light and variable winds will prevail through the forecast period. High cloud decks will mostly be few or scattered through 18-20Z, when a more broken deck will settle in as upper level moisture increases. PUW will see 10-12kt winds through this morning, but those winds will decrease around 00Z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence for VFR conditions. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 70 44 75 48 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 40 Coeur d`Alene 70 44 75 48 76 48 / 0 0 0 0 0 50 Pullman 67 45 75 48 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 10 60 Lewiston 73 47 79 51 76 51 / 0 0 0 0 10 60 Colville 71 41 78 45 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 10 40 Sandpoint 67 43 72 46 75 48 / 0 0 0 0 10 50 Kellogg 68 46 75 49 77 48 / 0 0 0 0 10 50 Moses Lake 76 46 81 49 79 52 / 0 0 0 0 10 40 Wenatchee 72 50 77 54 77 55 / 0 0 0 0 10 30 Omak 72 46 79 51 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 10 20 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. ID...None. && $$

572 FXUS66 KPDT 190519 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1019 PM PDT Sat Apr 18 2026 .Updated Aviation Discussion. .KEY MESSAGES... - Warming trend through Monday, followed by cooler air moving in midweek via a cold frontal boundary. - Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase Tuesday through Wednesday. - Breezy conditions going into Wednesday as the frontal boundary passes through. && .DISCUSSION... More mild overnight temperatures are expected as the airmass modifies and thicker cloud cover overspreads the Interior NW Tonight. Lows in the upper 30s and low 40s will warm efficiently Sunday morning, reaching highs in the upper 60s to 70s across all non mountain zones. An amplifying upper level ridge and sw boundary layer flow will continue to modify the airmass by Monday with even warmer lows in the 40s and low 50s, reaching highs approaching 80 degrees in the Eastern Columbia River Gorge, central Oregon, Lower Columbia Basin and John Day Basin. The days 4 and 5 LREF, centered on Tuesday seem to indicate slightly slower and southward (offshore) solutions shared by the clusters 1 through 4. By Wednesday general agreement in the clusters show the low moving inland as an open 500 mb trough. ESAT suggests about a +2 to 3 standard deviation of specific humidity as compared to model climatology at 500 mb but only normal to about 1 SD at 700 mb. A marginal increase in confidence in thunderstorm chances is with respect to timing as the NBM ensemble continues to focus and initial 10% chance of Thunderstorms across the Oregon Cascades late afternoon and early evening Monday followed by more broad chances Tuesday afternoon, with less than 10% chances across the lowlands, about 10-15% chances across the Cascades and Northern Blues, and a maximum of 25% chances across the rest of the eastern mountains, with sbcape values between 150-400 J/kg. Increasing expectations of wetting rains with the current ensembles, as chances for 0.10 or higher rainfall by Tuesday evening range from 60 to 80% for the Oregon Cascades and central Oregon (Bend/Redmond) and across the John Day Basin and southern Blues. The wetting rain chances become widespread at 60 to 80% chances by Wednesday morning with the expectation of the Columbia river Gorge and Lower Columbia basin and Yakima Kittitas valleys where probability is around 50-60% for wetting rains. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/... VFR conditions currently at all sites, which will stay the course through the period. Winds will stay light and below 10kts as 25kft ceilings persist. 75 && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 41 74 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 ALW 45 74 51 78 / 0 0 0 0 PSC 40 77 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 YKM 40 74 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 HRI 39 76 45 80 / 0 0 0 0 ELN 38 71 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 36 74 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 LGD 36 69 41 75 / 0 0 0 0 GCD 38 72 44 77 / 0 0 0 0 DLS 45 75 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...None. OR...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...71 AVIATION...75

543 FXUS65 KREV 190907 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 207 AM PDT Sun Apr 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and mild weather prevails this weekend with increased afternoon breezes today. * Periods of gusty winds, rain, and mountain snow are expected between Monday and Wednesday. * Warmer and drier weather late next week, but with lingering shower chances. && .DISCUSSION... Clouds are moving in from the west, and will continue to filter in overhead through today. Southerly winds will increase later today, bringing gusts of 20 mph to the leeside valleys and up to 35 mph along the ridges. Cloud cover may limit some daytime warming today, especially over the Sierra. The same cloud cover may then act as an insulating blanket layer overnight tonight, keeping overnight lows noticeably warmer than previous nights. The next system has been delaying it`s arrival for the past few days. When we initially locked eyes on this closed low, it was trying to arrive as early as Sunday into Monday. Now, it has been pushed back a few days, with winds increasing Monday evening ahead of the incoming system. The possibility of wind gusts of 45 mph for the area on Monday and especially Tuesday is 50-90%. Wind prone areas may see gusts reaching 60-65 mph on Tuesday, with a focus of the Basin and Range for the core of the higher winds. Showers will begin to show up on radar overnight Monday into Tuesday, when snow levels start off around 7500-8000 feet. By sunrise, the snow levels will begin dropping across northeastern California to around 6500 feet, with the southern Sierra dropping to around 7500 feet. The trend of falling snow levels will continue through Wednesday as the front passes and our shower chances move eastward. For the snow amounts in the duration of the storm, a 30% chance for up to 12 inches exists along the Sierra passes. High sun angle of recent will help the ground remain relatively warm, but the falling snow levels and intensity of showers may also align with dark skies, which would limit the impacts of the warm ground on melting snow. As in recent systems, slushy wet snow on roads is likely, with elevated surfaces accumulating more readily. Travel may become difficult late Tuesday into Wednesday, so prepare ahead of time with alternate travel plans or winter weather gear if you must travel. One hazard worth mention will be a 10-20% chance for embedded lightning in showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Once this system exits to the east for Thursday, we will resume a gradual warming trend that will bring us to the weekend. The model solutions are presenting potential for a system as early as next Sunday, but since the past few storms have been timing later into the forecast, we will reserve our assessment until guidance comes into agreement. HRICH && .AVIATION... * VFR conditions and light winds through this afternoon, with gusts increasing to around 20 kts this afternoon for western Nevada valley terminals, and up to 25 kts for Sierra terminals. * Late Monday into Tuesday, KSVE will start to see showers moving in, and by Tuesday morning the majority of terminals will see rain, snow, winds and possible lightning. HRICH && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$

813 FXUS66 KSTO 182031 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 131 PM PDT Sat Apr 18 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Dry weather with near to slightly above normal temperatures over the weekend - Storm system brings renewed precipitation chances in rain, mountain snow and thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday, along with cooler temperatures and breezy winds && .DISCUSSION... ...Today through Sunday... Current GOES-West satellite imagery illustrates some high clouds starting to move into California on this Saturday afternoon. Temperatures are currently trending approximately 5 to 10 degrees warmer than this time yesterday, valid at 115 PM PDT. The upper level pattern features ridging, bringing warm and dry conditions today the forecast area. Forecast highs this weekend will be in the 70s to low 80s in the Valley and foothills, and in the 50s to 60s in the mountains. These temperatures will be trending near to slightly above normal for this time of year. Generally light winds are prevailing across the area and will gradually increase out of the south on Sunday ahead of an approaching storm system. ...Next Week... An upper low will approach California and move inland early to mid next week, bringing along cooler temperatures, breezy southerly winds, rain, thunderstorms and mountain snow Monday through Wednesday. The latest forecast precipitation amounts have not changed much, with 1 to 2 inches of rain in the Valley and 1.5 to 3 inches of rain in the foothills, with 1 to 2 feet of snow in the mountains. Snow levels will initially be high on Monday, around 6000 to 7000+ feet, and will lower down to the passes Tuesday, and down to 5000 to 6000 feet late Tuesday into Wednesday. Moderate impacts from mountain snow are forecast, with chain controls, travel delays and reduced visibilities at times. The threat for thunderstorms will have the highest chances on Tuesday, which will bring the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms on this day. There are also be some lingering thunderstorm chances into Wednesday as well. Check back frequently for updates on this storm and always check the forecast and road conditions before traveling! && .AVIATION... General VFR conditions at TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Increasing cloud cover around 00z Monday as a weather system moves into the area, but no changes in flight categories in the next 24 hours. Winds generally less than 12 kts everywhere until 18z Sunday. Then, southerly winds gradually increase with gusts up to 25 kts in the northern Sacramento Valley and foothills, and up to 30 kts in the mountains through 06z Monday. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

059 FXUS65 KMSO 190742 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 142 AM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Warming and drying trend through the weekend and into early next week. - Showers and isolated thunderstorms possible Tuesday evening, with potential for gusty winds. - Widespread rain and much cooler temperatures arrive Wednesday through Friday. A strong ridge of high pressure will build over the Northern Rockies today and Monday, starting a significant warming trend. Temperatures across the region will peak on Tuesday, with valley highs reaching the 70s and 80sabout 20 degrees warmer than average for this time of year. Record-breaking high temperatures are likely for several locations. By Tuesday afternoon, increasing instability will support the development of thunderstorms with high cloud bases, primarily across north-central Idaho. The primary threats from these storms will be frequent lightning and gusty winds. A cold front will move through the region Wednesday ahead of a large area of low pressure aloft, bringing widespread rain, snow, and breezy conditions. While the precise path of the following low-pressure system remains uncertain for late next week, we have high confidence in a transition to much cooler and more unsettled weather. Moderate to heavy rain is expected Wednesday through Thursday, with the highest chances for over 1.00 inch of total rainfall focused over the Clearwater Mountains and the Continental Divide. There is a 20 percent probability of an alternate scenario where a surge of deep moisture moves into the area, potentially producing 2.00 to 3.00 inches of rain and melted snow along the Divide. Impacts will include rising water levels in local rivers and streams, though flooding is currently not expected. People should remain alert for water ponding in areas with poor drainage and small rockslides or debris flows on steep terrain. Additionally, the potential for snow increases by Thursday for the higher valleys and mountain passes of southwest Montana, including the Butte area and Homestake/MacDonald passes. Travel impacts from snow will depend heavily on the eventual path of the low-pressure system. As the low exits to the east, 40 percent of the ensemble models show a north to northeast flow developing, bringing much lower snow-levels, potentially bringing several inches of snow to the region. Stay tuned! && .AVIATION...Clear skies and excellent visibility (VFR) will continue through the next 24 hours as a strengthening ridge of high pressure stays over the region. Expect light winds that follow local terrain patterns. Some patchy fog is possible near river bottoms early Sunday morning, but no impacts to local airports are expected. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$

719 FXUS65 KBOI 190912 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 312 AM MDT Sun Apr 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Continued dry and warming through early Tuesday, but beginning to cool in eastern Oregon later Tuesday. - Showers and thunderstorms, windy, and much cooler Wednesday as a cold front moves through. && .SHORT TERM /Through Tuesday Night/... Continued dry and warming today and Monday as an upper ridge holds over the interior northwest, while a Pacific upper low near 45/139 moves slowly south. High temps today will be about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday, with another 5 degrees warming Monday. Tuesday will continue warm in Idaho but begin to cool in Oregon as the upper ridge begins to shift eastward and the Pacific low moves toward the northern California coast. The approaching low will begin showers and thunderstorms in Harney and Baker Counties Tuesday, with showers spreading eastward across the rest of our CWA Tuesday night. Winds will be breezy south or southeast through the short term.| && .LONG TERM /Wednesday through Sunday/... A prominent Pacific low will move overhead on Wednesday and trigger a sharp cool-down across SE Oregon and SW Idaho...with max temperatures lowering as much as 20-30 degrees from Tuesday. Numerous showers will dominate the area Wednesday into early Thursday, with snow levels ranging 5000-6500 ft MSL. As a result, several inches of snow accumulation will develop across the higher terrain once ground temps cool, while moderate rainfall totals can be anticipated for low/mid elevations. Windy conditions will continue through Wednesday, with highest gusts located south and west of the W Snake Plain. Winds will gradually subside for Thursday, but remain breezy throughout the afternoon. As the center of the low departs toward the east, cool northerly flow will keep temperatures near to slightly below normal through the rest of the week. Thereafter, near- normal temps and unsettled conditions are forecast into the weekend as troughing persists across the Northwest U.S. && .AVIATION /06Z Sunday through Monday/... Issued 1116 PM MDT SAT APR 18 2026 VFR. Periods of high clouds. Surface winds: variable 10 kt or less. Then, S-E 5-15 kt with gusts to 15-25 kt in the afternoon. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: S-SW 10-20 kt. KBOI...VFR. Surface winds: SE 5-12 kt, except brief period of light and variable mid-morning. Occasional Sunday afternoon SE-E gusts around 20 kt. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....SH AVIATION.....SH

815 FXUS65 KLKN 190739 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1239 AM PDT Sun Apr 19 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry today and Monday with temperatures trending warmer * Breezy southerly winds this afternoon with gusts to 15 mph across Northern NV and up to 25 mph across Central NV * Winds Monday trend higher with gusts of 15 to 30 mph across Northern NV and 30 to 50 mph gusts across Central NV * A storm system impacts the region on Tuesday with strong winds, afternoon rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms * Colder Tuesday night into Wednesday with a mix of rain and snow && .UPDATE... Issued at 1204 AM PDT Sun Apr 19 2026 Current forecast is tracking well at this time and no updates are planned. && .DISCUSSION... (This afternoon through next Saturday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: A few mid and high-level clouds are streaming across northern and central Nevada this afternoon with plenty of sunshine peaking through. This is all due to a ridge of high pressure that will be affecting the area`s weather for the next several days. Quiet and dry weather will continue tonight under mostly clear skies with lows in the 20s and 30s. The upper ridge axis will move overhead and then head east of the area on Sunday. The flow will become more southwesterly in nature with afternoon highs warming into the 60s and 70s by the afternoon. A few afternoon breezes will develop during this time, especially across central Nevada where wind gusts to 30 mph are possible. No precipitation is expected. Dry and quiet weather will continue Sunday night into Monday with lows warmer than the previous morning with readings into the 30s and light winds. By Monday, a large closed upper low will be wobbling towards the west coast of the United States. Southwest flow will continue over the forecast area and additional warming is expected. This will result in afternoon highs about four to seven degrees warmer than on Sunday. Even with this warming, only one climate site will be near its record. Elko Airport`s current record of 82 degrees was set back in 1994 while the forecast high will be 79 degrees on Monday. All other locations will be in the 70s to near 80 degrees for highs. Winds will also develop on Monday with southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph with wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph. Clouds are expected to increase due to the slow forward progression of the incoming cutoff trough. Overnight lows will be in the 40s. The main upper low center is forecast to remain off the coast, though precipitation is expected to move into portions of California and western Nevada. Conditions are expected to remain dry during the morning but moisture will be increasing during the day. Strong winds will be developing during the late morning and afternoon. The strongest winds are forecast to be in central Nevada where speeds gusting to 50 mph are possible. In addition, high temperatures will remain above normal levels with readings in the 70s. Snow levels are expected to remain high during the overnight with lows in the 40s. By Wednesday and Thursday, the upper low is expected to fill though cool and showery, wet conditions will remain. Highs will be in the 50s with lows in the 30s. Light showers are possible through Saturday with temperatures remaining near normal. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: No changes were made to the forecast. High confidence continues through the short term with respect to the warming and dry conditions. Confidence has risen to around low to moderate with regards to the incoming cutoff system early next week. && .AVIATION...Look for VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Winds will be breezy across the central TAF sites of KTPH and KELY with gusts to 30KT. Other locations in northern Nevada will see winds less than 15KT. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...86