ZSE Aviation Forecast Discussions

335 FXUS66 KSEW 141736 AFDSEW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Seattle WA 1036 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Cool, wet and windy conditions Tuesday into Wednesday with periods of heavy snow in the mountains. Drier weather is in store Thursday and Friday with high pressure. Wetter weather returns over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Rain continues to increase across Western Washington this morning. The primary change to the forecast was to issue a Wind Advisory for the Grays Harbor County coast, as well as the Admiralty Inlet and Everett region. Wind gusts will approach 40 to 45 MPH in these areas, with localized power outages possible. Previous discussion below: Wet and windy conditions on tap today as a strong Pacific storm system sweeps through western WA. The main impact will be periods of heavy mountain snow, including snow at all Cascade passes - Winter Storm Warnings are in effect. Snow levels will hover around 3500 ft today but will drop to 1500-2000 tonight into Wednesday. The bulk of the heavy snow will fall tonight but there will be lingering snow showers moving through Wednesday. Mean 48-hr storm total amounts range from 10 to 20" with highest amounts over the volcanoes. Heavy snow is also possible for the Olympics and a Winter Weather Advisory is also in effect (primarily for today and tonight). In addition, it`ll be windy today with gusts to 20-30 mph common across most lowland areas. Winds will peak this evening but still remain in 15-25 mph range overnight. A deep upper low will be overhead on Wednesday with cool and showery conditions. As mentioned above, we`ll still see snow showers in the mountains although snow rates will ease. The air mass is slightly unstable with a chance of thunderstorms too, especially near the coast. Showers will taper off Wednesday night as the low opens to a trough and exits east. It`s not as windy but will be chilly with morning lows in the 30s and highs in the 40s to around 50. We`re under dry northerly flow on Thursday as high pressure forms offshore. Morning temperatures will remain cool and in the 30s with freezing temps and frost possible across the south sound. Highs will be a little warmer and in the 50s with sunbreaks. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...High pressure will shift inland on Friday for more dry and stable weather. Morning lows will still track on the cool-side with possible frost around the south sound. The ridge departs on Saturday with a return of moist SW flow. Showers associated with an offshore low may clip the coast during the afternoon and evening. Showers will spread inland on Sunday as the low shifts farther east and inland. By Monday, this system shifts to our south, over CA/NV, with a brief break in the weather over western WA. 33 && .AVIATION...A frontal system will continue to push into the region today, producing a mixed bag of generally MVFR to localized LIFR conditions as precipitation and low clouds spread inland. Visibilities will deteriorate in heavier rain this afternoon, with widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings. Stratiform rain will shift southeastward of the area this evening, with a Puget Sound Convergence Zone favored to develop and showers streaming inland later tonight into Wednesday. Southwest surface winds will become breezy this afternoon/evening as the front passes, becoming generally 10-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Winds will gradually taper overnight into Wednesday becoming south to southwest 5-10 kt. Thunder is possible (low 15% chance) this afternoon for the coastal terminals and in the convergence zone, with increasing chances (20% chance) along the coast Wednesday, but confidence not high enough to include in the TAFs. KSEA...MVFR this morning in low ceilings and reduced visibility as rain spreads over the terminal. Rain will taper off this evening with showers overnight. MVFR conditions are favored to continue at the terminal through late tonight before VFR conditions develop Wednesday morning. A post-frontal convergence zone is favored to develop later this afternoon, but will likely stay north of the terminal. South to southwest surface winds will continue to increase this morning into the afternoon to 15-20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Winds will ease after 06z Wed becoming south to southeast overnight. A lightning strike or two is possible at the terminal if convergence zone activity drifts southward, but is unlikely. Chances for thunder increase into Wed. 15 && .MARINE...A cold front will move across the waters through today resulting in strong southerly winds. Have issued Gale Warnings for portions of the Coastal Waters, as well as Puget Sound and Admiralty Inlet, due to the probability of gale force wind gusts ranging between 60 to 90 percent. South winds will be strongest near Everett and Admiralty Inlet for the inner waters. Small Craft Advisory winds are expected elsewhere as well. South winds will peak through this evening. West winds will increase through the Strait of Juan de Fuca this evening into tonight. SCA west winds are expected for the central and eastern Strait during this period, but will need to monitor the potential for gale gusts as well. Winds will decrease on Wednesday with onshore flow. Unsettled weather on Wednesday will result in a slight chance for thunderstorms over the waters. Drier weather returns Thursday through Saturday. Seas increase from 4-6 ft to 9-12 ft Tuesday, lingering at 8-10 ft through Thursday, then decreasing to 3-5 ft Friday through Sunday before building back to 8-10 ft. JD/HPR && .HYDROLOGY...No river flooding the next 7 days. && .SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County- Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Olympics. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Wednesday for Grays Harbor Bar. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Wednesday for Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands. Small Craft Advisory until noon PDT today for Admiralty Inlet. Gale Warning from noon today to 11 PM PDT this evening for Admiralty Inlet. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Puget Sound and Hood Canal. Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening for Puget Sound and Hood Canal. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm. Gale Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm- Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm. && $$

925 FXUS66 KPQR 141108 AFDPQR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 408 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...A strong frontal boundary arrives today and tonight ushering in widespread rainfall across the coast through the inland valleys, and heavy snowfall to the Cascades. Due to the expected snowfall impacts for the latter area, a Winter Storm Warning is in effect. In the wake of the front showers and a slight chance (15-25%) for thunderstorms follow on Wednesday then concerns shift to cooler overnight temperatures and frost to end the week. After a brief stint of dry and warmer weather on Saturday, precipitation chances return by early next week. && .SHORT TERM...Now through Wednesday night...This morning satellite and radar observations show moisture associated with our next potent weather disturbance streaming into far northern Washington and Vancouver Island, the first signs of a rather significant pattern change anticipated to occur later today into the middle of the week. the robust upper-level low helping to steer this frontal boundary is slated to continue its dive out of the Gulf of Alaska bringing a swath of widespread precipitation and eventually cooler conditions. QPF values have changed little with the latest forecast guidance amounts from today through Wednesday generally ranging from 0.75 to 1.25 inches across the Willamette Valley and Portland metro, 1.00 to 2.25 inches along the coast and Coast Range, and 1.10 to 2.30 inches across the Cascades. However, for the latter region, especially at pass level, the precipitation will likely be falling as snow for a good chunk of this event. Speaking of snow the incoming system looks to bring roughly 10 to 22 inches of snowfall to the Cascades starting this afternoon through early Thursday morning mainly above 3500-4000 ft although, snow levels likely bottom out around 2000-3000ft on Wednesday just behind the front - higher elevation, more impacts. The latest NBM probabilities show a 60-90% probability of 12 inches or greater snowfall over a 48 hour period from today through Thursday afternoon at Santiam level and Willamette Pass, slightly lower (30-40%) at Government Camp. Overall the highest amounts likely fall in the high Cascades from Marion to Lane County. The period to watch as far the greatest travel impacts are will be from 4-10am on Wednesday when snowfall rates in the heavier precipitation bands right along the front may exceed 1-1.5 in/hr. So, if you are planning to travel over the Cascades passes, particularly Wednesday morning, please prepare for winter-like travel conditions. One other interesting facet of the forecast we`re watching is the potential for 1-3 hr period of dynamic cooling temporarily punching snow levels into the 500-1500ft range near sunrise Wednesday morning. This has been a feature hinted at by the last several runs of the higher resolution guidance like the HRRR and NAMNEST right on the back edge of the cold-frontal boundary where persistent heavier precipitation combined with cold air just above the surface (-5C at 850mb) could facilitate this process, assuming all the proper variables align. The areas of particular interest are southwest Washington into the Portland Metro and the higher coast range/Cascade valleys. If this were to occur elevations as low as 500ft could see a rain/snow mix or "chunky rain" for an hour or two with no impacts. The chances for a light slush-up in the grass gets higher once you reach 1500ft, particularly in the Cascade foothills/valleys, but due to the warm antecedent conditions most impacts remain 2000ft+. Progressing through Wednesday a showery post frontal environment quickly overtakes the region coupled with increasing instability during the afternoon thanks to the core of the upper level low moving overhead. Most models show Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) values peaking around 200-500 j/kg, which is decent for our post-frontal environment weak thunderstorm set-ups. The main time period of focus is 11AM to 7PM on Wednesday when heating between shower bands may be maximized. Given this information, there is a 15-25% chance for thunderstorms across the majority of our CWA. Any of these pop- up thunderstorms may produce moderate to heavy rain, infrequent lightning, small hail/graupel, gusty and erratic winds. So, when thunder roars, go indoors or when you see a flash (of lightning), dash inside. With the loss of daytime heating thunderstorm chances decrease Wednesday night although showers likely persist. -99/42 .LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...By Thursday, the upper level low and associated front have left the CWA, but will leave the region under cooler conditions with increasing clearing. Thursday into Friday looks to have overnight lows below normal bottoming out in the mid 30s across the lowlands and spelling a potential for frost. Below freezing temperatures are even forecast for the higher coast range/Cascade valleys, including the Hood River Valley. Currently, the Portland/Vancouver Metro there is a 10-40% chance of overnight lows at or below 36 degrees F. From the Portland/Vancouver Metro areas southward towards Salem and Eugene, OR, expect a 45-85% chance of overnight lows at or below 36 degrees F. For locations north of Vancouver, expect a 50-75% chance of overnight lows at or below 36 degrees F. Additionally, there is a 80-95% chance of at least freezing temperatures in the Upper Hood River Valley for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Similar conditions may develop again Thursday night into Friday morning, though with slightly lower probabilities (only 10-30% lower). Looking towards the weekend, temperatures gradually warm, reducing these morning frost concerns. Ensembles show a shortwave ridge of high pressure moving quickly overhead on Saturday, but being quickly followed by another low pressure system on Sunday originating from the Gulf of Alaska. Now, beyond Sunday and into the start of next week, WPC Cluster Guidance is favoring this low holding just off the OR/WA coast or moving over the inland Pac NW, which means that cooler and moister conditions are favored for the start of next week. -99/42 && .AVIATION...Conditions are generally VFR across the region this morning with increasing southerly flow ahead of a quickly approaching cold-frontal system. Chances for MVFR CIGs along the coast quickly increase to 70-80% by 14-16z this morning as rain moves overhead with a 40-60% chance for IFR conditions during the afternoon and evening. Inland terminals will hold on to VFR conditions a bit longer with MVFR probabilities increasing after 18z to 40-60% as rain increases, but CIGs may fluctuate until the later afternoon and evening when more uniform cloud cover is expected to move in overhead and MVFR conditions likely settle in. Along with rain, winds will increase also increase today with gusts along the coast reaching to 25-35 kt after 18z and 20-25 kt for inland locations. KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions likely persist through the morning hours however stratiform rainfall increases midday into the mid afternoon. CIGs are expected to respond in-kind with chances for MVFR conditions rising after 16-18z - probabilities between 70-80% after 20z. Southerly winds also increase during the afternoon with gusts between 20-25 knots persisting through the evening. -99 && .MARINE...The focus today remains on the arrival of a robust cold-frontal boundary slowly spreading across the waters north to south. As a result expect southwest winds to increase with gusts up to 30 kt across all coastal waters. Winds are expected to be strongest this afternoon into early Tue evening. During this time, there will be around a 3-6 hour period when gusts could (30-50% chance) exceed 34 kt, producing marginal Gale Force wind gusts. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect across the inner and outer waters including the Columbia River Bar starting this morning. The increased wind waves are expected to build seas to around 7 to 10 ft with a period of around 8-10 seconds. Seas remain steep and choppy through Tue night as well. Behind the frontal boundary Tuesday night winds abruptly shift northwest with gusts increasing back up to 20-25 kt as an area of low pressure drops along the Canadian coast toward the Puget Sound. This will also bring a 15-25% chance of thunderstorms over the waters through Wed evening. Seas are expected to persist at around around 8 to 10 ft on Wednesday, building slightly to around 9 to 11 ft Wed night as a northwest swell moves through the waters. Given these seas the Small Craft Advisory was extended out into Thursday morning. High pressure then builds over the waters later this week as northerly winds return and seas gradually subside to around 3 to 6 ft Friday into Saturday. There is potential for another weather system to impact the waters the second half of the weekend into early next week likely increasing winds and seas yet again. -99/DH && .PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ126>128. WA...Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for WAZ211. PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210. Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ251-271. Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ252-253-272-273. && $$ www.weather.gov/portland Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland x.com/NWSPortland

454 FXUS66 KMFR 141904 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1204 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .DISCUSSION...A shortwave ridge passing over northern California and southern Oregon will produce calm, mostly clear weather for the rest of today. Daytime highs will warm slightly from Monday`s temperatures, but clouds will steadily increase across the area as the next system approaches. As this cold front approaches, some coastal showers will begin to move into the area this evening, which we can already see in Radar imagery offshore this afternoon. More widespread rainfall is expected on Wednesday. Coastal cities look to see 1 to 1.5 inches of rainfall, while coastal ranges could see around 2 inches. Rainfall in the Umpqua Valley is forecast to be between 0.75 and 1 inch, with other valleys and basins seeing lower amounts through Wednesday. With snow levels expected to hover at 4500-5500 feet from the front`s arrival through Wednesday morning, winter impacts look to be limited to the Cascades. A Winter Weather Advisory is in place for areas near and north of Crater Lake and at elevations above 5000 feet from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning, given that snowfall in this area is expected to make travel hazardous. Snowfall amounts of 12 to 16 inches are forecast over the Cascades on Wednesday. Current SPC guidance shows around a 90 percent chance for snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour Wednesday morning into early in the afternoon, and 40 to 50 percent chance for a brief period of 2 inches per hour late in the morning. Also, gusty winds are expected over elevated terrain and the usual exposed areas on Wednesday, especially east of the Cascades. With mid-level model winds approaching 55 kts, gusts along Winter Rim/Summer Lake and the Warner Mountains could reach up to 55 mph in that late Wednesday morning-early afternoon timeframe. Gusts of 30-40 mph are expected to be more widespread across east side areas. Activity across the area eases on Wednesday evening, but a cold air mass looks to bring impactful overnight low temperatures for west side valleys. The Rogue, Applegate, Illinois, and western Klamath County valleys are all forecast to see lows from the mid 20s to low 30s on these nights. These temperatures would bring chances of frost or freezing conditions. East of the Cascades, overnight lows look to be in the mid teens to low 20s. Chilly nights aside, Thursday looks to be a quieter day. While snow levels drop to 1500-2000 feet in the morning, declining activity will minimize the chance of impactful winter conditions at lower elevations. Another shortwave ridge looks to bring warmer temperatures and dry conditions on Friday and Saturday. Long-term deterministic imagery is showing more agreement of a low pressure system approaching the area from the northwest late this weekend into early next week, bringing periods of southwest or southerly flow. While details are still coarse, the tight pressure gradients aloft in imagery tend to indicate stronger winds, and southerly flow patterns tend to deliver moderate to heavy precipitation to the Mount Shasta area and coastal terrain. Details remain coarse for this timeframe, so stay tuned for additional details on continuing active weather. && .AVIATION (18Z TAFs)... A front will pass through the region this evening. This will result in widespread precipitation chances through tonight into Wednesday afternoon. As a result, MVFR conditions will likely become common across the area. Probabilities are not high enough to include IFR ceilings, but rainfall intensity along the coast could bring visibilities down to IFR conditions. Probabilities were not high enough to include IFR (ceilings/visibilities) for inland sites at this time, but there is an 8%-18% chance for IFR conditions inland. -Guerrero && .MARINE...Updated 1200 PM PDT Tuesday, April 14, 2026...Seas will remain below advisory level through early this afternoon. However, a front will start passing through the region later today. This will result in widespread precipitation, strong winds, and steep seas starting late this afternoon/early evening. Localized areas of very steep and hazardous seas may be briefly possible north of Coos Bay as the front initially starts to transition over the waters. Steep seas will continue behind the front through Thursday afternoon. A weak thermal trough may bring gusty northerly winds over the outer waters and south of Cape Blanco on Friday. Another active system may bring additional rainfall and steep seas this weekend. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ030-031. Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ027. CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ085. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$

251 FXUS66 KEKA 140726 AFDEKA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Eureka CA 1226 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Chilly temperatures this morning for the interior. Rain likely returns by Tuesday night into Wednesday, especially for the North Coast. Near freezing to freezing low temperatures expected to return late week. More rain possible over the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...Chilly temperatures have set in for the interior areas, with near-freezing temperatures possible in the coldest valleys. A frost advisory has been issued for northern Mendocino and Lake Counties. Satellite imagery and fire watch cameras show that inner valleys have some fog developing, trapping heat and keeping temperatures above the values needed for frost. When daytime comes around, dry weather is forecasted with pleasant temperatures for the inner valleys. Tuesday night through Wednesday, an upper level trof moving into the interior PacNW will extend southward, leading to windy and rainy conditions for NW CA. Breezy southerly winds up to 30mph are possible for Del Norte and Humboldt counties. Rainfall amounts have continued to trend upwards in the models for this storm system. The current NBM is showing rainfall amounts around 1.00" for Crescent City and Del Norte. The northern area of the CWA will receive the most rain as the front rapidly moves southward and weakens. Rainfall will be light with periods of moderate intensity for the Humboldt Bay area. Lighter rain intensity and totals are forecasted for Trinity and northern Mendocino counties. Less than a tenth of an inch is expected in southern Mendocino and Lake counties. As per usual, the mountain areas will have more rain than the surrounding valleys. The bulk of the colder air for this system is forecasted to be more in southern OR and NE CA. This means that snow levels are still expected to be ~5,000 feet for most of the precip, but may drop below 3,000 feet as the precip comes to an end Wednesday evening. As the frontal system continues southward, breezy west winds in excess of 30 mph are possible Wednesday evening in Lake County. Wednesday night into Thursday morning shows cold air moving over the area lowering snow levels down to 2,000 ft, leading to cold temperatures. The NBM is showing lows in the 20s in northern Lake, northeast Mendocino, and much of Trinity county. While this is certainly possible, fog and low clouds from the added moisture may develop in some of the valleys, limiting the radiational cooling. Thursday afternoon, clear skies and dry conditions are expected with a slight warming trend. This will likely set up Thursday night to be the coldest night as even the coast may see frost. Global models show another frontal system passing on Saturday night through Monday. At this point, model rainfall totals have risen slightly. The probability of rain totals over 0.5" for The weekend is over 75% for Del Norte. Humboldt and Trinity county has around a 50-70% chance for over 0.5", while the southern half has around a 20- 50% chance. Chances for over an inch in 48 hours are around 50% in the mountains of Del Norte and the King Range. Details of this system will continue to become clearer over the coming days. && .AVIATION...(06Z TAFs)...Terrain induced cumulus has dissipated as previous TAF discussions predicted. Light rain at KCEC by noon has low chance but still exists as moisture continues to sweep into the area and likely to clip Del Norte and produce precip for KACV as well KUKI at a lesser amount in the thousandths. Tuesday late night into Wednesday will likely produce decent rain amounts with reduced visibility and ceilings around 5000ft, keeping VFR categories despite steady showers. Saturday and into Sunday looks to be wet as well which cold set up ground fog development next week if the cloud cover is minimal. /EYS && .MARINE...Northerlies have increased today with the pressure gradient tightening behind a departing frontal system at the same time as high pressure builds off the coast. This has resulted in some small craft conditions in the southern water zones today that will persist into tonight. Winds will decrease on Tuesday as the front/trough continues to move inland and the next storm system approaches the Pacific Northwest. Winds will briefly turn out of the south starting Tuesday into Tuesday night ahead of the next frontal passage. A few areas in the north could see nearly small craft conditions ahead of the front. However, winds will sharply turn back out of the north as the front passes through the waters on Wednesday with small craft and possibly gale conditions developing Wednesday night into Thursday and Thursday night. /RPA && .EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA... Frost Advisory until 8 AM PDT this morning for CAZ110-111- 114-115. NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS... Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ455-475. && $$ NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between 10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed. Visit us at https://www.weather.gov/eureka Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: https://www.facebook.com/NWSEureka https://www.twitter.com/NWSEureka For forecast zone information see the forecast zone map online: https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

453 FXUS66 KMTR 142029 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 129 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 124 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 - Near normal temperatures continue through Thursday before temperatures warm heading into the weekend - Periods of gusty offshore winds, especially at higher elevations, Wednesday afternoon through Friday morning - Increasing confidence for widespread beneficial rain Sunday into the beginning of next week && .SHORT TERM... Issued at 124 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 (This evening through Wednesday) Low level stratus is breaking up across the Bay Area with sunny skies to continue into the afternoon/evening. Another round of stratus is expected tonight along the coast and portions of the SF Bay Shoreline. Locally patchy fog remains possible tonight across the interior valleys, particularly across the North Bay Valleys and southern Salinas Valley. The upper level pattern remains fairly stable in the short term as a deep upper level trough moves into the PNW and more meridional flow (becoming slightly troughy on Wednesday) prevails over California. This will result in Tuesday looking fairly similar to Monday with coastal highs in the 50s to 60s, interior highs in the 60s, and portions of the interior Central Coast in the low 70s. Morning low temperatures will be in the 40s to low 50s with portions of the interior Central Coast and the elevated terrain dropping into the upper 30s. Diurnally breezy onshore winds continue through Wednesday with gusts to around 20 to 30 mph across favored gaps/passes and along the coast in the afternoon/evening. There is some potential for coastal drizzle on Wednesday but if any does occur no accumulation is expected. && .LONG TERM... Issued at 124 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 (Wednesday night through next Monday) There is a slight pattern change Wednesday night into Thursday as a high amplitude ridge moves into the West Coast. This will bring gusty offshore (northerly) winds across the region with gusts between 30-40 mph across the highest peaks. Winds will be strongest across the North Bay Interior Mountains and the interior East Bay. Fire concerns remain minimal thanks to the recent wetting rains across the region last weekend. Winds shift onshore again by Saturday and continue through the remainder of the Long Term Forecast. High temperatures will see a gradual warming trend Thursday into the weekend with highs building back into the mid to upper 70s across the interior and 60s along the coastline. By Sunday, the upper level ridge will have progressed eastward and another deep upper level trough will move into the West Coast. This low is coming from the Gulf of Alaska and will bring us our next round of rain. The highest rain totals look to be in the coastal mountain ranges with lower amounts expected across the rest of the Bay Area and Central Coast. Temperatures will cool Sunday and Monday with interior highs in the 60s to low 70s on Sunday dropping into the low to mid 60s on Monday. Coastal high temperatures will remain in the 50s to 60s. Gusty onshore winds are possible Sunday into Monday as this next system arrives but it does not meet Wind Advisory Criteria. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Low level lift and ample moisture led to a strato-cu kinda day. Onshore flow and persistent cloud feed from the Pacific will keep a mix of MVFR (2000-3000 FT CIGS) to VFR through the 19-20Z time period. It will take some time, but do expect mostly VFR this afternoon with a few lingering CU. Tonight will be lower conf given lingering low moisture increasing high level clouds. For STS/APC did not include dense fog like this AM....thinking increasing high clouds will limit radiational cooling (10-20% chc). For the Wed AM rush do have some MVFR CIGS returning 1500-2500 FT. Winds are forecast to increase throughout the day into the evening before tapering down through the night. HAF is an exception as it will maintain moderate winds with some embedded gusts through the TAF period due to its close proximity to the coastline. Vicinity of SFO...Strato-cu is slow to mix out. Trending later in the 19-20Z block for the Bay. Do expect an uptick with onshore winds this afternoon with better clearing. Gusts 20-25 kt. SFO Bridge Approach...Solid deck of strato-cu. May clear a little later than SFO terminal. Monterey Bay Terminals...Gradual thinning of strato-cu with similar clearing in the 19-20Z. Onshore flow will bring some MVFR cigs back again tonight. && .MARINE... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1059 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 High pressure off the California coast will maintain moderate to fresh northerly breezes over the coastal waters today. Locally stronger gusts will occur near Point Reyes and Point Sur regions. A cold front will increase winds to near gale force late Wednesday or early Thursday, building rough seas. Winds and seas ease into the weekend, but build again into the next work week with some chances for rain. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay- Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay-Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Kennedy LONG TERM....Kennedy AVIATION...MM MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea

218 FXUS66 KOTX 142052 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 152 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - A robust cold front to deliver valley rain, mountain snow, and gusty winds through Thursday. - Drier and more seasonal temperatures Friday and Saturday. - Rain chances return Sunday and Monday. && .SYNOPSIS... A cold front passage this afternoon into Wednesday will bring lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy to windy conditions. Some snow will make it down to the lowlands Wednesday night into Thursday morning on the tail end of the mid-week system. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Thursday: A Gulf of Alaska Low continues pushing a decent amount of moisture and cooler air into the Inland Northwest. Precipitable water amounts are around half an inch (120-140 percent above normal). The colder air will drop the snow levels from 4000ft to 2000ft through Wednesday. Mountain snow will continue with valleys along the Cascades and northern valleys changing from rain to rain/snow mix or snow by early Wednesday morning. Snow accumulation will be confined to above 3500ft as ground surface temperatures will be too warm for snow accumulation. Winter weather advisories and a warning have been issued for many of the regions mountain passes through Thursday. Stevens Pass has a 25-75 percent probability snow range of 11-13 inches. Sherman has a 4-5 inches range. Lookout has a 9-14 inch range. Snoqualmie Pass has a 12-14 inch range. Models are indicating weak convection over the higher terrains of the region. The strongest chance for thunder is over Northeast Washington and North Idaho. There is not enough confidence to include thunder for the Cascades. The Low is also tightening the pressure gradient as it swings through the region. It will lead to breezy conditions through the period. Strongest winds will be tonight with gusts into the 30-40 mph range across the Basin. Winds will remain breezy with gusts 15-25 mph. Sustained winds will be in the teens. Overnight temperatures are also expected to dip. While the highs will mainly be in the 40s to low 50s. The lows will drop into the upper 20s and 30s Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Portions of the Columbia Basin have reached early growing season. Cold sensitive vegetation could be impacted. If winds remain breezy, it will lower the potential for frost/freeze impacts. Friday through Tuesday: High pressure fills in behind the exiting Low. A dry warning trend is expected through the weekend and into the start of next week. Something to keep an eye is a Low moving near coast of Southern Oregon on Monday. Depending on the strength and placement, it could lead to light showers returning to the region for the start of the week. /JDC && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: The next system moves in today into tonight with rain and a return to MVFR at GEG/SFF/COE/PUW. Downslope flow off the Cascades will keep conditions VFR at KEAT/KMWH, while similar effects off the Blue Mountains keep LWS VFR until after the cold front passage Wednesday morning. CIGS are expected to degrade further as well for KPUW, becoming IFR around 15z Wed. The system will also usher in gusty west-southwest winds through the TAF period, shifting to west-northwest behind the cold front in Central WA Wednesday morning. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Moderate confidence in CIGS dropping to MVFR for KGEG/KSFF/KCOE/KPUW tonight. Moderate confidence in KPUW dropping to IFR 15-18z Wed. High confidence that VFR conditions persist through the TAF period at KEAT/KMWH. JW ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... Spokane 38 49 29 50 29 54 / 80 70 30 30 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 37 47 30 48 29 51 / 100 90 50 50 10 10 Pullman 37 44 29 45 29 50 / 90 90 60 50 10 10 Lewiston 43 51 34 50 34 55 / 80 90 50 40 10 0 Colville 34 52 27 54 26 59 / 90 60 30 30 0 0 Sandpoint 37 45 30 46 29 51 / 100 90 60 70 20 20 Kellogg 36 42 28 42 29 46 / 100 90 70 80 30 40 Moses Lake 39 56 30 58 30 60 / 30 20 10 0 0 0 Wenatchee 37 51 33 55 34 59 / 50 20 10 0 0 0 Omak 35 53 31 58 32 61 / 50 20 10 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Freeze Watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning for Moses Lake Area-Upper Columbia Basin- Wenatchee Area. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for Okanogan Highlands. Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Chelan County. Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Western Okanogan County. ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT Thursday for Central Panhandle Mountains. && $$

221 FXUS66 KPDT 142055 AFDPDT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 155 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mountain snow today into Thursday - Breezy to windy through Thursday - Near- to sub-freezing morning lows Thursday and Friday for the lowlands && .DISCUSSION... Ensemble and deterministic NWP guidance are in excellent agreement that the next weather system to affect the region, an upper-level closed low currently centered over southeast Alaska, will continue to track along the coast of British Columbia and eventually into the Pacific Northwest through Thursday. Its attendant cold front is expected (99 percent confidence) to slowly traverse the forecast area overnight (Washington Cascades) through Wednesday afternoon (far northeast Oregon), lowering snow levels below mountain pass elevations. Winter weather headlines remain in effect, and confidence is high (80 percent) in 4-8 inches of snowfall for the Washington Cascades, 6-12 inches for the Oregon Cascades, and 5-10 inches for the northern Blue Mountains with locally higher totals along the crests. The bulk of the snowfall will likely (80 percent confidence) end by Wednesday morning (Washington Cascades) to Wednesday afternoon (Oregon Cascades and Blues) as the front sags southeast, but snow showers will persist through Wednesday night or Thursday morning as the aforementioned upper low moves overhead. Precipitation associated with the cold front in non-mountain areas will be mostly rain below 1500-2000 feet, though uncertainty still exists in snowfall between 2000 and 4000 feet. Much of this uncertainty is driven by how long the frontal band lingers over the lowlands (i.e. how much precipitation falls and how much rate-driven cooling will occur within the band), and also in the location/magnitude of post-frontal snow showers. Widespread breezy to windy southwesterly to westerly winds are expected this afternoon and tonight in advance of the cold frontal passage. Confidence was too low (50 percent) in widespread advisory-level sustained winds or wind gusts to issue any wind headlines. By Wednesday afternoon, winds will become westerly to northwesterly in the wake of the front and remain diurnally breezy to windy through Thursday. NBM probabilities of exceeding advisory levels vary widely (30-80 percent) across the lower elevations each day, highest for wind-prone locations of the foothills of the Blue Mountains and north-central Oregon as well as the Kittitas Valley. The cold air mass associated with the upper low Thursday morning has prompted concerns for near- to below-freezing morning temperatures. NBM calibrated probabilities suggest medium-high chances (60-90 percent) of freezing temperatures for the Yakima and Kittitas valleys, medium probabilities (30-70 percent) along the foothills of the Blue Mountains, and low- medium-medium (20-50 percent) for the lowest elevations including the eastern Columbia River Gorge and lower Columbia Basin. Have opted to issue a Freeze Watch where chances of freezing are highest (Kittitas and Yakima valleys and the foothills of the northern Blue Mountains of Oregon), but will note there are still a lot of moving parts to the forecast with uncertainty in how much cloud cover will persist and how windy conditions will remain overnight into the morning hours. Also worthy mentioning, with the notable exception of several CAMs (and perhaps a few other inputs not examined), raw inputs to the NBM are largely not supportive of sub-freezing temperatures while bias-corrected inputs are. This is not uncommon, but when conditions are not calm, raw inputs are more likely to have their warmer temperatures verify than when radiational cooling is efficient and guidance struggles to resolve cold pools. An upper-level ridge will likely (80 percent confidence) build into the Pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend, yielding lighter winds and mostly dry conditions. The main headline- worthy consideration for Friday will be near- to sub-freezing temperatures for the lowlands. This set-up looks more favorable for mostly clear to clear skies and lighter winds relative to Thursday morning, so while the coldest air mass will have exited the region to the east, radiational cooling should be more efficient. By Sunday through Monday, uncertainty in the 500-hPa pattern grows, but some flavor of a 500-hPa closed low (~85 percent of members) or trough (~15 percent of members) is advertised by all ensemble clusters to be in the vicinity of, or over, the Pacific Northwest. Will note the trend in 12Z ensembles has been towards the offshore cut-off low, a solution that anecdotally materializes more often relative to the more progressive solutions. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions currently prevail with concerns revolving around winds the next 24- hrs and deteriorating flight categories 12Z on tomorrow associated with a cold front. This active 24-hr window will see persistent breezy winds with elevated winds continuing overnight. This will be followed by a modest wind shift between 12Z-18Z tomorrow at terminals tomorrow with peak gusts expected around 25-35 kts. While there are low chance ahead of it this afternoon (23Z-04Z) at KALW and KPSC terminals, more robust chances (60% and higher) will be seen after 9Z tomorrow morning at terminals from west to east and north to south. && .Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs... PDT 41 52 31 53 / 50 90 40 20 ALW 42 52 34 53 / 80 90 60 30 PSC 44 58 34 61 / 30 70 30 0 YKM 38 55 30 59 / 60 40 10 0 HRI 42 56 32 59 / 30 80 20 0 ELN 32 48 29 52 / 60 30 10 0 RDM 34 48 23 49 / 40 80 30 0 LGD 39 48 29 46 / 90 100 80 60 GCD 38 49 26 45 / 70 100 70 60 DLS 41 53 35 57 / 80 80 20 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ030. Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for WAZ026-027. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for WAZ522. OR...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for ORZ502. Freeze Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning for ORZ507. Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ509. && $$ DISCUSSION...86 AVIATION...80

811 FXUS65 KREV 140850 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 150 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Dry and seasonable for today. * Strong cold front brings winds and chances for snowfall Wednesday into Thursday. Widespread hard freezes likely Friday morning. * Quiet weather and seasonable temperatures for the upcoming weekend, followed by another storm Monday-Tuesday next week. && .DISCUSSION... * For today we`ll have seasonable temperatures across the region with dry weather. We`ll see an increase in high level clouds that are associated with the next storm system by the afternoon. Otherwise, after a chilly morning it will be a quiet, warm April day. * The next storm system will impact the area Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. This system has a strong cold front, which will increase west, pre-frontal winds throughout the region. Latest guidance now shows a 30-70% chance for wind gusts of 45 mph or greater in western NV. As such, Wind Advisories have been issued for Wednesday for the Surprise Valley, northern Washoe, the Sierra Front including the greater Reno metro area, and the inner-basin and range. A Lake Wind Advisory is also in effect for Lake Tahoe as well. * Per latest guidance, there is a 50-70% chance for precipitation by Wednesday morning for the Surprise Valley, Lassen, northern Washoe, Pershing, and Churchill counties. Other areas in western NV have around a 20-40% chance. Meanwhile, the Tahoe Basin has around a 40-60% chance of precipitation by Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning. Mono and Mineral counties have a lower (10-25%) chance for precipitation. This is not looking like a major precipitation maker. QPF amounts are generally between zero to around 0.25", and there is still a 20-40% chance for measurable snowfall in the Sierra. * As the front moves through the area, strong north to northwest winds will develop on Thursday. The strongest gusts are still looking to be in Mineral, Lyon, and Mono counties. This will also possibly lead to new Wind Advisories for those areas, especially for any north-south aligned terrain. * After the front exits the area on Thursday, Friday morning is setting up to be a very cold morning (for mid-April standards). The urban areas, like Reno, have a 50% chance for temperatures dropping to 28 degrees or below. But outside of any urban areas, there is a likely (>60%) chance for temperatures of 28 degrees or colder. Any early season vegetation and irrigation systems would need to be protected ahead of time. * After the Wed-Thur storm system, conditions will be calm for Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will increase back to seasonal readings by Friday through the weekend. Sunday will become windy again ahead of the storm system that will move into the area on Monday into Tuesday. This system will also bring cooler temperatures and chances for precipitation. -McKellar && .AVIATION... * Freezing fog will continue in KTRK through around 16Z. Other favored valleys that had precipitation over the past weekend also have a chance for FZFG this morning. * We`ll have mostly VFR with SCT high clouds associated with the next storm system. Westerly winds will get a little gusty in the afternoon, with gusts under 20 knots. * Wednesday will see increased aviation impacts from winds, LLWS, and mountain wave turbulence as that storm and strong cold front approach the area. -McKellar && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday NVZ003>005. Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday NVZ002. CA...Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday CAZ070. Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Wednesday CAZ072. && $$

445 FXUS66 KSTO 141913 AFDSTO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sacramento CA 1213 PM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 For additional details on weather and expected impacts over the next 7 days, please visit weather.gov/sto/briefing. .KEY MESSAGES... - Quick moving system Wednesday-Thursday brings light mountain rain/snow, followed by gusty north winds in the Valley on Thursday. - Dry weather late week into the weekend with near to above normal temperatures. - Next weather system brings increasing rain/mountain snow chances and breezy to gusty winds Sunday into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... ...Today... As NorCal sits between the departing trough from the weekend and an approaching trough digging across the Pacific Northwest, a period of dry weather and breezy southerly winds remains on track for the remainder of today. Despite mostly sunny skies, high temperatures look to remain below normal, with upper 60s to low 70s across the Valley and 50s to low 60s at higher elevations. A slight chance for a light shower or two will be possible this evening across northern Shasta County with the approaching trough, but minimal impacts are expected. ...Midweek... Moving into Wednesday, shower chances are expected to gradually increase across Shasta County and the surrounding terrain by mid morning, with rain and light mountain snow showers spreading toward mountain locations north of Highway 50 throughout the day. Snow levels look to remain above 6000 feet through Wednesday, rapidly falling overnight into Thursday morning. Despite this, most precipitation is anticipated through Wednesday evening. Given the progressive nature of the system, NBM probabilities of rainfall greater than 0.25" remain around 30-50%, highest across the Shasta County terrain. Accumulating snowfall of a dusting to an inch will generally be confined to locations above 6000 feet. As dry weather continues at lower elevations through this event, increasing north to east winds are looking likely as the system departs on Thursday. Current forecast trends indicate a slight southward shift in the expected midweek trough, which is expected to introduce a slight uptick in winds further southward to include the entire Sacramento Valley and the Delta. Wind gusts 25 to 35 mph are generally expected, although NBM probabilities of gusts up to 40 mph around 30-50% do exist for locations along and west of the Interstate 5 corridor and north of Highway 50. ...Late Week into the Weekend... As the midweek system continues to eject eastward through the end of the week, breezy north winds are likely to persist on Friday before trending lighter by the weekend. Dry weather is expected to persist on Friday and Saturday as a brief period of ridging aloft builds in over the weekend. This will allow temperatures to return to near to above normal through the first half of the weekend with some Minor HeatRisk possible on Saturday from Sacramento southward. Ensemble guidance does indicate another deepening trough arriving Sunday into early next week. While ensemble guidance is in general agreement that this system will introduce additional periods of active weather, there remain some notable timing differences on when precipitation impacts are expected to begin a this time. Regardless, increasing chances for rain/mountain snow, isolated thunderstorms, and periods of breezy onshore winds are anticipated by at least early next week. && .AVIATION... VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Surface winds in the Valley will be breezy out of the west to southwest in the Sacramento Valley and north to northwest in the northern San Joaquin Valley until around 06Z Wednesday. Surface winds then expected below 12kts. There is a 10-20% chance of low clouds developing in the central/southern Sacramento Valley tomorrow morning between 14-18Z, however confidence is low. A weak system will introduce isolated light precipitation over the northern Sacramento Valley and mountains/foothills after 18Z Wednesday with a 5-10% chance for isolated mountain thunderstorms which may lead to periods of MVFR/IFR conditions. && .STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$

280 FXUS65 KMSO 141852 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 1252 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGES: - Tonight/Wednesday: Pass level snow, potential minor travel impacts. - A potent cold front drops snow levels to the valley floors Wednesday night and Thursday, bringing the potential for sudden snow squalls in southwest Montana and travel impacts over mountain passes. - A brief warmup with drier weather is expected for the upcoming weekend before active weather returns. Expect breezy west winds this afternoon, gusting around 25 mph. Tonight, a stronger low-pressure system and a plume of Pacific moisture will begin moving into the Northern Rockies. The heaviest precipitation will focus across north-central Idaho and northwest Montana. Snow levels will hover around 4,500 feet, so impacts will mostly be confined to higher terrain. Lookout, Marias, and Lolo passes have a high chance (60 to 80 percent) of seeing a few inches of new snow, though roads just below the passes should remain mostly wet. A strong cold front will sweep across the region Wednesday, continuing pass level snow and valley showers. By Wednesday afternoon and evening this front will cause a burst of heavier precipitation and rapidly falling snow levels, dropping all the way to the valley floors. Be on alert for sudden snow squalls as the front moves through southwest Montana on Wednesday evening, which can cause rapidly dropping visibility and slick roads. This will create moderate travel impacts on mountain passes Wednesday night and Thursday morning. There is still some uncertainty regarding how much snow will ultimately accumulate in the valleys. Current models show the bulk of the moisture arriving directly along the cold front, which typically limits valley accumulations, but heavy bursts are still possible. Furthermore, there is a 25 percent chance that a weak, closed low-pressure system could develop over southwest Montana. If this happens, precipitation amounts in that area would be enhanced, leading to higher snow totals than currently forecast. Finally, we will closely monitor the potential for snow squalls Wednesday evening, as their exact timing and intensity are highly localized and complex to pin down in advance. Showery conditions will remain through Thursday with the trough over the region, and lingering mountain snow showers will taper off through Friday. A ridge of high pressure will build over the region this weekend, bringing a brief but welcome return to warmer and drier weather. However, this break will be short-lived, as another weather disturbance is currently expected to arrive by early next week. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will generally prevail today, though some mountain obscuration will continue, especially across northwest Montana. Southwest winds will increase to 10 to 15 knots with gusts of 20 to 25 knots at terminal sites this afternoon. Winds will relax in most valleys south of the I-90 corridor by sunset but will remain elevated in northwest Montana. Precipitation (rain and high-elevation snow) will quickly increase along the Idaho/Montana border by early evening and spread eastward overnight. Downsloping winds will limit precipitation in many western Montana valleys. Snow levels will lower to 4,000 to 5,000 feet by Wednesday morning. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 9 AM MDT Thursday for Butte/Blackfoot Region...Potomac/Seeley Lake Region. Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM MDT Thursday for Lower Clark Fork Region...West Glacier Region. Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM Wednesday to 9 AM MDT Thursday for Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains. ID...Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM MDT /5 PM PDT/ Wednesday to 9 AM MDT /8 AM PDT/ Thursday for Eastern Lemhi County... Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater Mountains...Western Lemhi County. && $$

843 FXUS65 KBOI 142032 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 232 PM MDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... - Rain, mountain snow and gusty winds on Wednesday, then snow level lowering to valley floors Thursday morning. - Subfreezing morning temperatures Thursday through Saturday across the entire area. - Warmer temperatures over the weekend with another chance of precipitation early next week. && .SHORT TERM /Through Thursday Night/... An upper trough dropping south along the BC coast will push into the region later tonight bringing valley rain and mountain snow. Precipitation will develop across SE Oregon by late this evening, spreading into SW Idaho overnight. Snow levels of 5000-6500 feet will support snow or a rain/snow mix across mountain valley floors with any minor accumulation melting off by late morning. Precipitation mixes with or changes to rain below 6000 feet with a heavy, wet snow continuing in the higher mountains through Wednesday evening. Liquid equivalent totals over the mountains is 0.75-1.5" over the 24h period from late this evening through Wednesday evening. Above 6500 feet this will translate to 10-20" of snow, with high end amounts of up to 2 feet. Lower elevations will see periods of rain on Wednesday. By late morning strong southwest flow aloft (30-50 mph at ~10kft) will mix to the surface bringing gusty winds to higher terrain outside of the Snake Plain. The windiest locations will be southern Harney, Malhuer, and Owyhee counties where gusts of 40-45 mph are expected. A cold front will push into the region Wednesday evening bringing a chance of thunderstorms, more gusty winds and lower snow levels. Areas that don`t tap into the stronger winds during the day, will see a period of stronger gusts with the frontal passage. This is mostly in the Snake Plain and Weiser Basin. Snow levels will drop to valley floors behind the front as precipitation scatters out. Though it will remain breezy, lower elevations will briefly flirt with freezing temperatures Thursday morning. The upper low passes overhead on Thursday, keeping a chance of rain/snow/graupel showers at lower elevations with snow showers in the mountains. Daytime instability will support heavier showers and possible thunderstorms in the mountains which could drop brief heavy snow. Thursday night will see drying conditions and clearing skies as the low exits eastward. This will allow for a widespread freeze, and for many locations a hard freeze (28 degrees or less). && .LONG TERM /Friday through Tuesday/... Strong northwest flow from the back end of the eastward moving trough will continue breezy conditions Friday, with elevated gusts up to 30 mph mainly over Magic Valley and Camas Prairie. The west-central ID mountains will see a 20-30% chance of snow showers from remnant upper moisture on Friday. Nighttime temperatures will be expected to stay on the colder end, below freezing through Saturday morning. Otherwise, a warming and drying trend will settle in for the weekend as a ridge builds in from the northwest coast. Peak temperatures will hover slightly above normal on Saturday and 5-10 degrees above normal on Sunday. Long-range guidance continues to favor another low digging down from the Gulf of Alaska early next week, although considerable uncertainty remains over its arrival timing for our area. However, ensembles still favor the late Sunday/Monday time frame. With that, precipitation chances will increase from west to east early Sunday into Monday, reaching 30-60% area-wide by Monday afternoon. Precipitation chances will remain elevated through midweek. The south-southwest flow from this system will keep temperatures near normal when it impacts our area. Gusty winds can be expected ahead of and behind the system passage. && .AVIATION /18Z Tuesday through Wednesday/... Issued 1152 AM MDT TUE APR 14 2026 VFR today. Band of SCT-BKN high clouds moving in from west. Cold front will bring showers from W-E early Wednesday morning, with MVFR- IFR conditions and mtn obscuration in showers/low ceilings. Snow Levels will be 5-6.5 kft MSL today through Wednesday morning. Surface winds: SW-NW 5-15 kt this afternoon with gusts up to 25 kt near KTWF/KJER. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: W-NW 10-20 kt KBOI...VFR. Rain showers returning early Wednesday morning with increasing clouds and lowering ceilings. Surface winds: W-NW 5-10 kt this afternoon, then SE 5-10kt this evening. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.x.com/NWSBoise SHORT TERM...DG LONG TERM....JY AVIATION.....JY

951 FXUS65 KLKN 140720 AFDLKN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Elko NV 1220 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 .KEY MESSAGES... * Strong cold front moves in from the northwest Wednesday night. Gusty winds and snowfall will produce minor travel impacts, primarily across northern Nevada. * Generally fair weather in place Friday thru Sunday * Next weather system moves in during the Monday timeframe && .UPDATE... Issued at 1214 AM PDT Tue Apr 14 2026 Current forecast is tracking well at this time and no updates are planned. && .DISCUSSION... (This evening through next Sunday) WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Fairer weather in place tonight and Tuesday as the forecast area resides in between weather producers. Afternoon instability type showers expected over the high terrain of Elko and White Pine Counties Tuesday afternoon with westerly breezes present across northern Nevada, gusts around 25 mph. Overnight low temperatures will be in the 20s tonight with upper teens in the typical cold spots. Daytime highs Tuesday reside in the low 50s to low 60s. Increasing west-southwesterly winds Wednesday as the upper level trof and attendant surface cold front approach from the northwest. Front begins to move in to he forecast area Wednesday night, exiting to the southeast Thursday night. A band of light to moderate snow will be embedded along the front as it traverses the forecast area. Greatest snowfall amounts look to be situated over northern Elko County, west of US-93. 3 to 6 inches are currently forecast. A skiff to 3 inches are generally expected elsewhere. Dry weather expected Friday with northwesterly breezes present as a progressive upper level ridge begins to move into the western U.S. Generally fair weather defined by warming temperatures and afternoon breezes will be present thru the weekend. Numerical model solutions depict a deep upper level trof and cold front to move into the forecast area Monday. This looks to bring additional rain and snow in the region along with gusty southwest winds. FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: High forecast confidence thru this weekend with moderate confidence pertaining to another frontal passage next week Monday. Minimal deviation form the NBM. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected at all terminals today. Main concern will be westerly afternoon breezes across northern terminals KWMC, KBAM, KEKO, and KENV. Gusts look to be around 20KT. && .LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...92 AVIATION...96