National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

An Active Start to the Week

A slow moving and large-scale system will produce widespread rain and thunderstorms the next few days across the central and southern Plains into the Mid to Lower Mississippi Valley. Severe storms will be common across Texas through Tuesday before spreading eastward. The locally heavy rain will produce possible flooding and have a similar transition to the east through midweek. Read More >


Traffic Flow Management Convective Forecast (TCF)


 

Go to TCF Home Page or the Extended CFP Home Page at AWC

 

Product Description:

The TCF is a high confidence graphical representation of forecasted convection meeting specific criteria of coverage, intensity, and echo top height. The TCF graphics are produced every 2 hours and valid at 4-, 6-, and 8-hours after issuance time.

Areas of convection in the TCF include any area of convective cells containing (at a minimum):

  1. Composite radar reflectivity of at least 40 dBZ;
  2. Echo tops at or above FL250;
  3. Coverage (a and b) of at least 25% of the polygon area;
  4. Forecaster confidence of at least 50% (High) that criteria (a, b, and c) will be met.

Lines of convection in the TCF include any lines of convective cells:

  1. Composite radar reflectivity of at least 40 dBZ having a length of at least 100 nautical miles (NM); and
  2. Having a linear coverage of 40% or greater; and
  3. Having echo tops at or above FL250.
  4. Forecaster confidence of at least 50% (High) that criteria (a, b, and c) will be met.

All four of the threshold criteria listed above for both areas and lines of convection are required for inclusion in the TCF. This is defined as the minimum TCF criteria.

The TCF domain is the Flight Information Regions (FIR) covering the 48 contiguous states and adjacent coastal waters. It also includes the Canadian airspace south of a line from Thunder Bay, Ontario to Quebec City, Quebec.

 

 

4-hour TCF with Current Radar and Lightning