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Thunderstorms in Florida and Central U.S.; Fire Weather Threats in North Plains

Strong to severe storms may linger in Florida as a slow moving cold front continues east. A weather system in the Central U.S. may produce strong thunderstorms in the Middle Mississippi Valley. A Canadian cold front will produce gusty winds and critical fire weather threats in the North Plains. Fire weather threats are also elevated in Guam. Heavy rain could cause flash flooding in Hawaii. Read More >


Traffic Flow Management Convective Forecast (TCF)


 

Go to TCF Home Page or the Extended CFP Home Page at AWC

 

Product Description:

The TCF is a high confidence graphical representation of forecasted convection meeting specific criteria of coverage, intensity, and echo top height. The TCF graphics are produced every 2 hours and valid at 4-, 6-, and 8-hours after issuance time.

Areas of convection in the TCF include any area of convective cells containing (at a minimum):

  1. Composite radar reflectivity of at least 40 dBZ;
  2. Echo tops at or above FL250;
  3. Coverage (a and b) of at least 25% of the polygon area;
  4. Forecaster confidence of at least 50% (High) that criteria (a, b, and c) will be met.

Lines of convection in the TCF include any lines of convective cells:

  1. Composite radar reflectivity of at least 40 dBZ having a length of at least 100 nautical miles (NM); and
  2. Having a linear coverage of 40% or greater; and
  3. Having echo tops at or above FL250.
  4. Forecaster confidence of at least 50% (High) that criteria (a, b, and c) will be met.

All four of the threshold criteria listed above for both areas and lines of convection are required for inclusion in the TCF. This is defined as the minimum TCF criteria.

The TCF domain is the Flight Information Regions (FIR) covering the 48 contiguous states and adjacent coastal waters. It also includes the Canadian airspace south of a line from Thunder Bay, Ontario to Quebec City, Quebec.

 

 

4-hour TCF with Current Radar and Lightning