National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Excessive Rainfall and Flooding Threat in Puerto Rico and New Mexico

An elevated to significant flooding threat will continue today across Puerto Rico with the highest risk across the eastern and northeastern portions of the region and northern USVI. In New Mexico, multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will likely lead to flooding concerns this evening across the southeastern portions of the state. Read More >


Traffic Flow Management Convective Forecast (TCF)


 

Go to TCF Home Page or the Extended CFP Home Page at AWC

 

Product Description:

The TCF is a high confidence graphical representation of forecasted convection meeting specific criteria of coverage, intensity, and echo top height. The TCF graphics are produced every 2 hours and valid at 4-, 6-, and 8-hours after issuance time.

Areas of convection in the TCF include any area of convective cells containing (at a minimum):

  1. Composite radar reflectivity of at least 40 dBZ;
  2. Echo tops at or above FL250;
  3. Coverage (a and b) of at least 25% of the polygon area;
  4. Forecaster confidence of at least 50% (High) that criteria (a, b, and c) will be met.

Lines of convection in the TCF include any lines of convective cells:

  1. Composite radar reflectivity of at least 40 dBZ having a length of at least 100 nautical miles (NM); and
  2. Having a linear coverage of 40% or greater; and
  3. Having echo tops at or above FL250.
  4. Forecaster confidence of at least 50% (High) that criteria (a, b, and c) will be met.

All four of the threshold criteria listed above for both areas and lines of convection are required for inclusion in the TCF. This is defined as the minimum TCF criteria.

The TCF domain is the Flight Information Regions (FIR) covering the 48 contiguous states and adjacent coastal waters. It also includes the Canadian airspace south of a line from Thunder Bay, Ontario to Quebec City, Quebec.

 

 

4-hour TCF with Current Radar and Lightning