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Great Lakes Ice Outlook (CLEICELIO)

issued Monday Wednesday Friday


 


                             Freezing Degree Day Information

	CLEWRKLIO DEF 
TTAA00 KCLE 211715
 
FREEZING DEGREE DAY ACCUMULATIONS AT SELECTED STATIONS
COMPARED TO NORMAL CALCULATED ON Tue Nov 21:
 
LOCATION           DATE   NORMAL CURRENT
----------------------------------------
    
   DULUTH,   MN  NOV   20   33  170    
MARQUETTE,   MI  NOV   20   16   99    
SAU_S_MAR,   MI  NOV   20    0   28    
 GREENBAY,   WI  NOV   20    0    0    
MILWAUKEE,   WI  NOV   20    0    0    
  CHIGAGO,   IL  NOV   20    0    0    
 MUSKEGON,   MI  NOV   20    0    0    
   ALPENA,   MI  NOV   20    0    0    
  DETROIT,   MI  NOV   20    0    0    
   TOLEDO,   OH  NOV   20    0    0    
CLEVELAND,   OH  NOV   20    0    0    
  BUFFALO,   NY  NOV   20    0    0    




                         Canadian Daily Ice Forecast 



FICN19 CWIS 211646
Ice forecasts for the Great Lakes issued by Environment Canada at
12:00 p.m. EST Tuesday 21 November 2017 for today tonight and
Wednesday.
The next scheduled forecasts will be issued at 12:00 p.m. Wednesday.

Western Lake Superior.
Ice free except 8 tenths of new lake ice including 3 tenths of thin
lake ice in Black Bay.

Eastern Lake Superior
Whitefish Bay
Lake Huron
North Channel
Georgian Bay
Lake St. Clair
Lake Erie
Lake Ontario.
Ice free.

Lake Michigan.
Ice free.

The Lake Michigan ice description has been pared by the U.S.
National Ice Center.

End

 
 
 
 
 



                            Freeze-Up/Break-Up Outlook (NWS CLE)

	
838
FZUS81 KCLE 201728
ICEGL

GREAT LAKES FREEZE-UP OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
1227 PM EST MON NOV 20 2017

GREAT LAKES ICE SEASON FOR 2017-2018 STILL ON TRACK TO BE SIMILAR TO
LAST YEAR.

A WEAK LA NINA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST A FEBRUARY TO APRIL
2018 TIMEFRAME. TYPICALLY, LA NINAS BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE UNITED
STATES.

HOWEVER...THE CURRENT 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR THIS TIME PERIOD INDICATES
EQUAL CHANCES FOR ABOVE...BELOW...OR NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IN
OTHER WORDS...THERE IS NO STRONG INDICATION BY THE MULTIPLE COMPUTER
MODELS THAT TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING TOWARD ANY OF THE THREE
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS. THE 90 DAY OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION INDICATES
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES REGION.

A LA NINA CAN CAUSE THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM TO TRACK EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL ALASKA AND THEN SOUTHEAST THROUGH ALBERTA CANADA INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY.  THE TRACK HAS POTENTIAL VARIABILITY DURING THE WINTER
MONTHS BUT TYPICALLY FAVORS THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.  DEPENDING ON WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SETS UP AT
ANY GIVEN TIME DURING THE WINTER...STORM SYSTEMS WILL ALSO BRING
VARIABILITY IN THE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION. THE REASON
BEING...STORM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES USUALLY BRING
A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARMER AIR FOLLOWED BY A SURGE OF COLDER AIR ONCE
THE STORM PASSES THE GREAT LAKES. THIS HAS BEEN THE TREND OVER THE
LAST COUPLE WEEKS WHERE WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECEDED A RETURN BACK
TO COLDER AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE STORMS THAT AFFECTED THE GREAT
LAKES.

THE NEXT 3 TO 4 WEEK TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK INDICATES THERE IS STILL
AND EQUAL CHANCE FOR ABOVE...NEAR...OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS BUT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE ENTIRE LAKES
REGION. A LOOK AT THE EXPECTED WEATHER THROUGH NOVEMBER 30TH...THE
LATEST COMPUTER MODELS INDICATE THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL
REMAIN IN A SIMILAR STATE AS THE LAST COUPLE WEEKS.  THE MEAN FLOW
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WILL EXTEND FROM ALBERTA CANADA
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.  SMALL UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW AND BRING PERIODS OF MILD
TEMPERATURES FOLLOWED BY BRIEF COLD AIR OUTBREAKS.  THIS OVERALL
PATTERN WILL AID IN REDUCING WATER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES OVER THE NEXT TWO WEEKS.  WATER TEMPERATURES ON THE LAKES
DROPPED ON AVERAGE 10 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT DURING THE LAST TWO WEEKS
AND IF THIS PATTERN CONTINUES AS EXPECTED...WATER TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE AT THIS RATE. THIS WOULD PUT EXPECTED WATER
TEMPERATURES IN DEGREES AS FOLLOWS BY DECEMBER 4TH:

LAKE SUPERIOR   WEST  32  CENTRAL 32  EAST 33
LAKE MICHIGAN   NORTH 38  SOUTH   39
LAKE HURON      NORTH 36  SOUTH   35
LAKE ERIE       WEST  35  CENTRAL 40  EAST 44
LAKE ONTARIO    WEST  37  CENTRAL 38  EAST 38

DUE TO THE FACT THAT A WEAK LA NINA IS EXPECTED...THE FULL IMPACTS
OF THE CURRENT WINTER SEASON WILL BE DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT. A TRACK
OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL FAVOR
COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MORE ICE. A TRACK TO THE NORTH FAVORS WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND LESS ICE. LOWER THAN NORMAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE
STILL EXPECTED ON THE LAKES BECAUSE OF THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE
UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM AND ALTERNATING WARM AND COLD SPELLS. IF ICE
DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP...THE FIRST LOCATIONS TO SEE ICE ARE THE BAYS
DE NOC...WESTERN BASIN OF LAKE ERIE...GREEN BAY...AND SAGINAW BAY.
THE AVERAGE TIME FRAME IS EARLY JANUARY.

IF MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REMAIN OPEN THROUGH THE WINTER SEASON AS
EXPECTED...LOCALIZED LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENTS COULD WIND UP BEING A
BIT MORE INTENSE DURING THE COLD AIR OUTBREAKS DUE TO THE LACK OF
ICE COVER EXPECTED.

KEEP IN MIND THAT ICE COULD DEVELOP EARLIER OR LATER SINCE ICE
DEVELOPMENT IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE OCCURRENCE OF COLD AIR
OUTBREAKS AND WARM PERIODS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE NEXT
TWO MONTHS.

ICE FORMATION IS DETERMINED BY TWO FACTORS--THE AMOUNT OF HEAT
STORED IN THE WATER FROM THE SUMMER AND HOW FAST THAT HEAT CAN BE
REMOVED BY ARCTIC OUTBREAKS OF POLAR AIR AND HIGH WINDS. LONG RANGE
OUTLOOKS DO NOT CONSIDER THE "STORMINESS" FACTOR WHICH CAN
SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER THE LAKES THERMAL STRUCTURE OVER SHORT PERIODS
OF TIME.

THE LATEST HARBOR WATER TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO PREVIOUS YEARS:

                 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 NORMAL

DULUTH            44   48   53   44   48   43   50   48   50    44
SAULT STE MARIE   44   50   53   46   50   52   54   47   48    47
CHICAGO           44   52   55   48   54   57   54   54   50    53
ALPENA            46   50   53   50   50   52   53   45   52    48
DETROIT           42   50   53   49   48   58   53   47   51    52
CLEVELAND         50   55   58   53   57   51   55   51   53    56
BUFFALO           46   50   54   52   55   52   55   51   53    54

WATER TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID-LAKE BUOYS OR NEARBY SHIPS COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS YEARS:

LAKE SUPERIOR
WEST              41   44   43   43   46   41   47   44   45    47
CENTRAL           41   48   45   42   44   44   46   46   43    47
EAST              43   47   45   42   MM   41   44   47   44    48

LAKE MICHIGAN
NORTH             48   50   51   47   53   45   MM   50   47    54
SOUTH             49   55   54   46   54   48   55   48   48    56

LAKE HURON
NORTH             46   49   53   48   49   48   46   49   46    53
SOUTH             45   50   54   49   56   48   54   53   51    55

LAKE ERIE
WEST              45   53   51   51   54   45   54   49   53    56
CENTRAL           50   55   58   53   57   46   55   53   53    58
EAST              54   53   56   52   54   48   55   52   53    57

THE NEXT FREEZE UP OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED IN APPROXIMATELY TWO WEEKS.

$$

LOMBARDY


   National Ice Center 30 day ice outlook


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Canadian 30-day ice outlook

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