National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce


A mesoscale convective system (MCS) tracked south-southeastward across Lake Michigan during the early morning hours of July 29th. Its associated MCV moved to a position to just north of Fort Wayne, Indiana by ~7 AM on the 29th (as the MCS was weakening). WNW flow aloft allowed that MCV to move rather quickly to the east-southeast during the day on the 29th, entering far northwest VA by the middle of the afternoon. During the day, the convection immediately adjacent to the MCV remained sub-severe. By 4:30 PM, a lone thunderstorm near the center of the MCV began rapidly strengthening just to the north of Fredericksburg, Virginia. The storm quickly became a right moving supercell as it tracked from just north of Fredericksburg to near Williamsburg from 4:30 to just after 8 PM before weakening. The environment was characterized by moderate instability but anomalously strong deep layer shear (due to 40-45 knot west-northwesterlies at 500 mb). Extensive straight line wind damage (estimated wind speeds were 70-80 mph) was observed along its track. In addition, hail up to the size of half dollars was observed in the Wakefield forecast area along the track. 


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