Forecast - Fire Weather

Gladwin/Roscommon Area Forecast



APX AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY

.DISCUSSION... There will be a chance of showers and thunder
across far northern lower tonight, though with minimal rainfall
(which may pose an issue with any lightning strikes). This will be
our only rain chances through the weekend, which will present some
of the higher fire weather concerns seen across the Northwoods
since this Spring. Saturday will see temperatures in the mid to
upper 80s, and low to mid 80s Sunday. Winds will increase from the
southwest Saturday... sustained 10-15mph, with some 25mph 
gusts... Sunday will be breezier and probably pose a bigger risk 
for fire growth for that reason... as south winds (sustained
15mph+, gusts 25-35mph) peak. The fortunate aspect of this stretch
of weather is that RHs will generally struggle to dip much below
30 to 35 across the interior, so that should suppress Red Flag
Criteria. Nonetheless, elevated fire danger is expected through
the weekend. Rain chances return this upcoming Monday as a cold
front moves into the region and commences a cooldown to far more
seasonable temperatures for early to mid October. 


FORECAST

MIZ016-017-021>023-099-040815-
Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
330 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent) until 2400, then 
                    partly cloudy (45-55 percent). 
Min Temperature.....54-59. 
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer...except 2 degrees warmer 
                    near the coast. 
Max Humidity........91-96 percent...except 82-87 percent along the 
                    coast. 
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter. 
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds. 
Vent Rate...........Poor (20). 
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. 
Transport Winds.....West around 6 mph. 
Pcpn Amount.........None. 
Chance of Thunder...7 percent. 

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy fog after 1200. 
Max Temperature.....82-87...except 73-78 near the coast. 
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer. 
Min Humidity........36-41 percent. 
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter. 
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds. 
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1092). 
Mixing Height.......6300 ft agl. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph. 
Pcpn Amount.........None. 
Chance of Thunder...6 percent. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). Patchy fog until 
                    2400. 
Min Temperature.....59-64. 
   24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer. 
Max Humidity........81-86 percent. 
   24 HR Trend......14 percent drier. 
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds. 
Vent Rate...........Poor (38). 
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph. 
Pcpn Amount.........None. 
Chance of Thunder...6 percent. 

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). 
Max Temperature.....80-85...except 70-75 near the coast. 
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler. 
Min Humidity........34-39 percent. 
   24 HR Trend......1 percent drier. 
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds. 
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1556). 
Mixing Height.......6400 ft agl. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph. 
Pcpn Amount.........None. 
Chance of Thunder...0 percent. 


$$

Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
330 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). 
Min Temperature.....52-57. 
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer. 
Max Humidity........93-98 percent. 
   24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter. 
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds. 
Vent Rate...........Poor (25). 
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 9 mph. 
Pcpn Amount.........None. 
Chance of Thunder...6 percent. 

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent). Patchy fog after 1200. 
Max Temperature.....82-87. 
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer. 
Min Humidity........35-40 percent. 
   24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter. 
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds. 
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1318). 
Mixing Height.......7200 ft agl. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 18 mph. 
Pcpn Amount.........None. 
Chance of Thunder...5 percent. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Patchy fog until 
                    2400. 
Min Temperature.....58-63. 
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees warmer. 
Max Humidity........84-89 percent. 
   24 HR Trend......13 percent drier. 
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds. 
Vent Rate...........Poor (41). 
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest around 12 mph. 
Pcpn Amount.........None. 
Chance of Thunder...4 percent. 

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). 
Max Temperature.....80-85. 
   24 HR Trend......3 degrees cooler. 
Min Humidity........32-37 percent. 
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier. 
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds. 
Vent Rate...........Excellent (1801). 
Mixing Height.......7000 ft agl. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 24 mph. 
Pcpn Amount.........None. 
Chance of Thunder...0 percent. 


EXTENDED FORECAST


.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS
IN THE MID 70S. LIGHT WINDS. 
.TUESDAY...COOLER. MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 50S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID
60S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 

$$

HAD


GRR AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY

.DISCUSSION...
Near record warm temperatures are expected through Sunday with 
mostly sunny skies. Afternoon RH is expected to drop below 40 
percent except for near Lake Michigan. Southwest winds will be 
a little breezier each day. The next best chance of rain showers 
arrives later Monday into Monday night.


FORECAST

MIZ037>039-043>045-040900-
Clare-Isabella-
Including the cities of Clare and Mount Pleasant
342 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent). 
Min temperature.....Around 56. 
   24 hr trend......9 degrees warmer. 
Max humidity........95-100 percent. 
   24 hr trend......Unchanged. 
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph in the evening 
                    becoming light. 
Mixing height.......4000-4500 ft AGL decreasing to 0-500 ft AGL 
                    after midnight. 
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....50-530 (poor to good). 
Pcpn Amount.........None. 

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent). 
Max temperature.....Around 87. 
   24 hr trend......1 degree warmer. 
Min humidity........35-40 percent. 
   24 hr trend......3 percent wetter. 
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming southwest around 10 mph in 
                    the afternoon. 
Mixing height.......900-1400 ft AGL increasing to 7200-7700 ft AGL 
                    in the afternoon. 
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....160 (fair) increasing to 1390 (excellent) in 
                    the afternoon. 
Pcpn Amount.........None. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent). 
Min temperature.....55-60. 
   24 hr trend......1 degree warmer. 
Max humidity........91-96 percent. 
   24 hr trend......Unchanged. 
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph. 
Mixing height.......4700-5200 ft AGL decreasing to 0-500 ft AGL 
                    after midnight. 
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....810 (excellent) decreasing to 60 (poor) after 
                    midnight. 
Pcpn Amount.........None. 

.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). 
Max temperature.....Around 83. 
   24 hr trend......4 degrees cooler. 
Min humidity........32-37 percent. 
   24 hr trend......3 percent drier. 
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 7 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph 
                    in the afternoon. 
Mixing height.......3400-3900 ft AGL increasing to 6800-7300 ft AGL 
                    in the afternoon. 
Transport winds.....Southwest around 15 mph increasing to around 25 
                    mph in the afternoon. 
Smoke dispersal.....860 (excellent) increasing to 1760 (excellent) 
                    in the afternoon. 
Pcpn Amount.........None. 


$$

EXTENDED FORECAST


.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. South winds
5 to 10 mph. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs around 80.
Southwest winds 6 to 11 mph. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with showers likely. Lows in the lower
50s. West winds 5 to 9 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Cooler. Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in
the mid 60s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Colder. Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. North
winds 5 to 9 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Sunny. Highs in the lower 60s. Northeast winds 5 to
9 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Clear. Lows in the mid 30s. 
.THURSDAY...Sunny. Highs in the mid 60s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 60s. 

$$


DTX AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY

.DISCUSSION...High pressure ensures dry conditions and near record
warmth through the weekend with highs well into the 80s and min RH
dipping to around 30 to 40 percent each afternoon. Recent expanding 
drought conditions and drying vegetation brings elevated fire weather
concerns through this stretch. A cold front tracks through lower 
Michigan late Monday into Tuesday, bringing the next chance for 
widespread rain.

FORECAST


Midland-Bay-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-
Including the cities of Midland-Bay City-Saginaw-Owosso-Flint
401 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.REST OF THE AFTERNOON...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). 
Max temperature.....78-84. 
   24 hr trend......8 degrees warmer. 
Min humidity........34-44 percent. 
   24 hr trend......7 percent wetter. 
20-foot winds.......Southwest 5 to 10 mph. 
Mixing height.......6670-7170 ft agl. 
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (812). 
Pcpn amount.........None. 

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (20-30 percent). 
Min temperature.....56-60. 
   24 hr trend......10 degrees warmer. 
Max humidity........90-100 percent. 
   24 hr trend......10 percent drier. 
20-foot winds.......South 5 to 10 mph. 
Mixing height.......780-980 ft agl. 
Transport winds.....Southwest around 10 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (19). 
Pcpn amount.........None. 

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (15-25 percent). 
Max temperature.....80-86. 
   24 hr trend......2 degrees warmer. 
Min humidity........39-49 percent. 
   24 hr trend......5 percent wetter. 
20-foot winds.......Southwest 5 to 10 mph. 
Mixing height.......7110-7610 ft agl. 
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (978). 
Pcpn amount.........None. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). 
Min temperature.....58-64. 
   24 hr trend......3 degrees warmer. 
Max humidity........77-85 percent. 
   24 hr trend......8 percent drier. 
20-foot winds.......South 5 to 10 mph. 
Mixing height.......380-580 ft agl. 
Transport winds.....South around 10 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (10). 
Pcpn amount.........None. 


$$

EXTENDED FORECAST


.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows around 60. Highs in the mid 80s. South
winds around 10 mph. 
.MONDAY...Partly cloudy. Showers. Lows in the mid 50s. Highs in the
mid 80s. West winds around 5 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Cooler. Partly cloudy. Showers likely. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs in the upper 60s. Northwest winds around 5 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the lower 60s. 
.THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the lower
60s. 

$$

TF