National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce
Huron-Manistee National Forests

NWS Gaylord Area of Responsibility

.DISCUSSION...

Widespread RHs in the 30-40 percent range -- along with the 
potential for some localized areas with near-critical RHs -- will 
persist over the next few hours before rising this evening as 
daytime heating wanes and temperatures cool. Continued south winds 
overnight will bring an increasingly moist airmass northward ahead 
of a cold front that is set to cross northern Michigan Saturday 
afternoon/evening. Southwest winds will increase ahead of this front 
Saturday morning with sustained 20 ft wind speeds of 7-12 mph and 
gusts to 20-30 mph. Highest wind gusts are anticipated across far 
northwest lower Michigan with less gusty conditions expected across 
the Huron National Forest. Winds of 7-12 mph but less gusty will 
turn to west and then northwest behind the front later Saturday 
afternoon and evening, eventually weakening to around 5 mph or less 
overnight. A few showers will be possible along/ahead of the front 
Saturday afternoon/ evening, but any rain is expected to be brief 
and light -- and most areas may end up staying rain-free. Minimum 
RHs between 50-60 percent on pose no fire weather concerns through 
the weekend.



Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac
Counties...including Eastern Huron NF-
317 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). 
Min Temperature.....53-58...except 62-67 near the coast. 
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees warmer. 
Max Humidity........89-94 percent...except 76-81 percent along the 
                    coast. 
   24 HR Trend......6 percent drier. 
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts 
                    up to 18 mph. 
Vent Rate...........Poor (38). 
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. 
Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph. 
Pcpn Amount.........None. 
Chance of Thunder...0 percent. 

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of 
                    showers and thunderstorms after 1200. 
Max Temperature.....78-83. 
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer. 
Min Humidity........51-56 percent. 
   24 HR Trend......21 percent wetter. 
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional 
                    gusts up to 27 mph. 
Vent Rate...........Excellent (867). 
Mixing Height.......4500 ft agl. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph. 
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.05 in . 
Chance of Thunder...6 percent. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent). Chance of rain 
                    showers until 2400. 
Min Temperature.....51-56...except around 60 near the coast. 
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler. 
Max Humidity........94-99 percent...except 82-87 percent along the 
                    coast. 
   24 HR Trend......10 percent wetter. 
20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph with occasional 
                    gusts up to 23 mph. 
Vent Rate...........Poor (30). 
Mixing Height.......500 ft agl. 
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 12 mph. 
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in . 
Chance of Thunder...13 percent. 

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). 
Max Temperature.....69-74...except 60-65 near the coast. 
   24 HR Trend......13 degrees cooler. 
Min Humidity........46-51 percent. 
   24 HR Trend......5 percent drier. 
20-Foot Winds.......West winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up 
                    to 27 mph. 
Vent Rate...........Excellent (701). 
Mixing Height.......4800 ft agl. 
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 15 mph. 
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in . 
Chance of Thunder...2 percent. 


$$

Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin
Counties...including Western Huron NF-
317 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (30-40 percent). 
Min Temperature.....51-56. 
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer. 
Max Humidity........91-96 percent. 
   24 HR Trend......2 percent drier. 
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts 
                    up to 18 mph. 
Vent Rate...........Poor (34). 
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. 
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph. 
Pcpn Amount.........None. 
Chance of Thunder...0 percent. 

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of rain 
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms 
                    after 1200. 
Max Temperature.....78-83. 
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees warmer. 
Min Humidity........51-56 percent. 
   24 HR Trend......23 percent wetter. 
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional 
                    gusts up to 23 mph. 
Vent Rate...........Excellent (890). 
Mixing Height.......4700 ft agl. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 12 to 21 mph. 
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in . 
Chance of Thunder...7 percent. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then 
                    partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Chance of rain 
                    showers until 2400. 
Min Temperature.....51-56. 
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged. 
Max Humidity........95-100 percent. 
   24 HR Trend......Unchanged. 
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming 
                    light. Gusts up to 25 mph. 
Vent Rate...........Poor (23). 
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. 
Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph. 
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in . 
Chance of Thunder...12 percent. 

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). 
Max Temperature.....70-75. 
   24 HR Trend......11 degrees cooler. 
Min Humidity........47-52 percent. 
   24 HR Trend......7 percent drier. 
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming west around 5 mph in the 
                    afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph. 
Vent Rate...........Excellent (631). 
Mixing Height.......4300 ft agl. 
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 15 mph. 
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in . 
Chance of Thunder...2 percent. 


$$
Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the
northern quarter of Manistee NF-
317 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.TONIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). 
Min Temperature.....54-59. 
   24 HR Trend......9 degrees warmer. 
Max Humidity........88-93 percent. 
   24 HR Trend......3 percent drier. 
20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts 
                    up to 18 mph. 
Vent Rate...........Poor (32). 
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. 
Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph. 
Pcpn Amount.........None. 
Chance of Thunder...0 percent. 

.SATURDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain 
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms 
                    after 1200. 
Max Temperature.....77-82...except 70-75 near the coast. 
   24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer. 
Min Humidity........54-59 percent...except 71-76 percent along the 
                    coast. 
   24 HR Trend......24 percent wetter...except 33 percent wetter 
                    along the coast. 
20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional 
                    gusts up to 27 mph. 
Vent Rate...........Excellent (716). 
Mixing Height.......3700 ft agl. 
Transport Winds.....Southwest 15 to 21 mph. 
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.06 in . 
Chance of Thunder...8 percent. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of rain 
                    showers until 2400. 
Min Temperature.....52-57. 
   24 HR Trend......4 degrees cooler. 
Max Humidity........94-99 percent. 
   24 HR Trend......7 percent wetter. 
20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming 
                    light. Gusts up to 25 mph. 
Vent Rate...........Poor (23). 
Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. 
Transport Winds.....Northwest around 9 mph shifting to the north 
                    around 6 mph after midnight. 
Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.03 in . 
Chance of Thunder...12 percent. 

.SUNDAY...
Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). 
Max Temperature.....67-72. 
   24 HR Trend......10 degrees cooler. 
Min Humidity........45-50 percent. 
   24 HR Trend......11 percent drier...except 17 percent drier 
                    along the coast. 
20-Foot Winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 10 mph in 
                    the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph. 
Vent Rate...........Good (568). 
Mixing Height.......3800 ft agl. 
Transport Winds.....Northwest 9 to 15 mph. 
Pcpn Amount.........None. 
Chance of Thunder...2 percent. 


EXTENDED FORECAST


.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.TUESDAY...RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. 
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS IN THE LOWER
50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF RAIN. LOWS AROUND 50. HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 60S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS AROUND 70.
SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. 

$$

DJC


Southern three-quarters of the Manistee National Forest

NWS Grand Rapids Area of Responsibility

.DISCUSSION... Gusty winds from strong northwest flow should reach
20 to 30 mph Saturday afternoon. Strongest winds expected along and north
of the I 96 corridor. The best moisture will be north of the US 10 corridor
with only a small chance of showers southward.



Mason-Lake-Osceola-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-
Including the cities of Ludington, Baldwin, Reed City, Hart, 
Fremont, and Big Rapids
322 PM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (25-35 percent). 
Min temperature.....50-55. 
   24 hr trend......6 degrees warmer. 
Max humidity........95-100 percent. 
   24 hr trend......Unchanged. 
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming south around 5 mph after 
                    midnight. 
Mixing height.......Near Lake Michigan, 2200-2700 ft AGL decreasing 
                    to 100-600 ft AGL after midnight. 
Mixing height.......Inland, 4500-5000 ft AGL decreasing to 0-500 ft 
                    AGL after midnight. 
Transport winds.....South around 10 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....60-540 (poor to good). 
Pcpn Amount.........None. 

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Slight chance of 
                    thunderstorms after 2 PM until 5 PM. Slight 
                    chance of rain showers after 2 PM. 
Chance of pcpn......20 percent in the afternoon. 
Max temperature.....78-83. 
   24 hr trend......4 degrees warmer. 
Min humidity........71-76 percent near Lake Michigan and 56-61 
                    percent Inland. 
   24 hr trend......22 percent wetter near Lake Michigan and 24 
                    percent wetter Inland. 
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 8 to 13 mph. Gusts up to 24 mph 
                    in the afternoon. 
Mixing height.......2200-2700 ft AGL near Lake Michigan and 
                    3900-4400 ft AGL Inland. 
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 20 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....490-930 (good to excellent). 
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.05 in. 

.SATURDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent). 
Min temperature.....50-55. 
   24 hr trend......1 degree warmer. 
Max humidity........95-100 percent. 
   24 hr trend......Unchanged. 
20-foot winds.......West winds around 6 mph in the evening becoming 
                    light. 
Mixing height.......Near Lake Michigan, 1200-1700 ft AGL. 
Mixing height.......Inland, 2600-3100 ft AGL decreasing to 100-600 
                    ft AGL after midnight. 
Transport winds.....Northwest 5 to 10 mph. 
Smoke dispersal.....50-580 (poor to good). 
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.02 in. 

.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain 
                    showers after 8 AM. 
Chance of pcpn......30 percent. 
Max temperature.....70-75. 
   24 hr trend......10 degrees cooler. 
Min humidity........53-58 percent near Lake Michigan and 44-49 
                    percent Inland. 
   24 hr trend......17 percent drier near Lake Michigan and 16 
                    percent drier Inland. 
20-foot winds.......Light winds becoming northwest around 10 mph 
                    with higher gusts in the afternoon. 
Mixing height.......4300-4800 ft AGL. 
Transport winds.....North around 10 mph shifting to the northwest 
                    in the afternoon. 
Smoke dispersal.....450-650 (good to excellent). 
Pcpn Amount.........none to 0.01 in. 


$$

EXTENDED FORECAST


.SUNDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Chance of showers in the evening.
Lows in the upper 40s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening
becoming light. 
.MONDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. Northeast winds 5 to
6 mph shifting to the southeast 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. 
.MONDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers after midnight.
Lows in the upper 50s. Southeast winds 7 to 12 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Showers likely in the morning, then a
chance of showers in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 70s.
Southwest winds 9 to 14 mph. 
.TUESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers in the evening,
then showers likely after midnight. Lows in the upper 50s. West
winds 5 to 9 mph shifting to the north up to 5 mph after midnight. 
.WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Highs in the
lower 70s. Northeast winds 5 to 9 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Lows in
the mid 50s. 
.THURSDAY...Partly sunny with a chance of showers. Highs in the
lower 70s. 
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 50s. 
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 70s. 

$$


Hiawatha National Forest

NWS Marquette Area of Responsibility

.DISCUSSION...
MIZ001-003-121200-

Dry weather persists today, with warming temperatures amid 
increasing southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front. 
Temperatures peak near 80 for most, but may struggle to get out of 
the mid 70s near Lake Michigan. As dewpoints mix out, RH falls as 
low as the mid 30s in the western UP, and in the lower to mid 40s 
elsewhere, away from Lake Michigan. At the same time, SSW winds will 
be turning gusty, with gusts to 20-30mph common during the afternoon 
and evening hours throughout the UP. Any rain chances hold off until 
late tonight as the cold front makes its way into the area.




MIZ020-025>027-120815-
Alger-Luce-Northern Schoolcraft-
Including the cities of Grand Marais, Munising, Newberry, 
and Seney
614 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. 
Max temperature.....Around 78. 
   24 hr trend......10 degrees warmer. 
Min humidity........45-50 percent. 
   24 hr trend......Unchanged. 
20-foot winds.......South 12 to 17 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. 
PCPN amount.........None. 
Hours of Sun........9. 
Chance of thunder...0 percent. 

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. A 
                    slight chance of rain showers late. Chance of 
                    showers 20 percent. 
Min temperature.....Around 61. 
   24 hr trend......17 degrees warmer. 
Max humidity........89-94 percent. 
   24 hr trend......9 percent drier. 
20-foot winds.......South 9 to 14 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. 
PCPN amount.........None to 0.06 inch. 
Chance of thunder...6 percent. 

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. A slight chance of thunderstorms 
                    early. A chance of rain showers. Chance of 
                    precipitation 50 percent. 
Max temperature.....Around 75. 
Min humidity........59-64 percent. 
20-foot winds.......Southwest 9 to 14 mph shifting to the 
                    west 8 to 13 mph by mid afternoon. Gusts up to 
                    30 mph. 
PCPN amount.........None to 0.08 inch. 
Hours of Sun........5. 
Chance of thunder...12 percent. 

Delta-
Including the cities of Escanaba and Gladstone
614 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. 
Max temperature.....Around 77. 
   24 hr trend......Unchanged. 
Min humidity........48-53 percent inland to 58 percent at the 
                    shore. 
   24 hr trend......12 percent wetter. 
20-foot winds.......South 9 to 14 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. 
PCPN amount.........None. 
Hours of Sun........9. 
Chance of thunder...0 percent. 

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. A 
                    slight chance of rain showers late. Chance of 
                    showers 20 percent. 
Min temperature.....Around 60. 
   24 hr trend......11 degrees warmer. 
Max humidity........89-94 percent. 
   24 hr trend......8 percent drier. 
20-foot winds.......South 9 to 14 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. 
PCPN amount.........None to 0.08 inch. 
Chance of thunder...7 percent. 

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers. 
                    Chance of showers 20 percent. 
Max temperature.....Around 77. 
Min humidity........50-55 percent. 
20-foot winds.......Southwest 9 to 14 mph with gusts to 
                    around 25 mph shifting to the west 7 to 12 mph 
                    by mid afternoon. 
PCPN amount.........None to 0.03 inch. 
Hours of Sun........5. 
Chance of thunder...10 percent. 

Ottawa National Forest

NWS Marquette Area of Responsibility

$$
Ontonagon-Gogebic-Southern Houghton-
Including the cities of Ontonagon, Ironwood, Kenton, and Sidnaw
614 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026 /514 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026/

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. 
Max temperature.....Around 81. 
   24 hr trend......7 degrees warmer. 
Min humidity........36-41 percent. 
   24 hr trend......Unchanged. 
20-foot winds.......South 9 to 14 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. 
PCPN amount.........None. 
Hours of Sun........6. 
Chance of thunder...1 percent. 

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers and 
                    thunderstorms through midnight. Rain showers
                    late. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 
Min temperature.....Around 60. 
   24 hr trend......8 degrees warmer. 
Max humidity........96-100 percent. 
   24 hr trend......11 percent wetter. 
20-foot winds.......South 8 to 13 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. 
PCPN amount.........0.05-0.20 inch. 
Chance of thunder...25 percent. 

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers 
                    through early afternoon. Chance of showers 20 
                    percent. 
Max temperature.....Around 70. 
Min humidity........44-49 percent. 
20-foot winds.......West 8 to 13 mph with gusts to around 25 
                    mph. 
PCPN amount.........None to 0.03 inch. 
Hours of Sun........8. 
Chance of thunder...9 percent. 

$$
Baraga-Marquette-
Including the cities of L'Anse, Gwinn, and Marquette
614 AM EDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. 
Max temperature.....Around 80. 
   24 hr trend......9 degrees warmer. 
Min humidity........41-46 percent. 
   24 hr trend......5 percent drier. 
20-foot winds.......Southwest 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 30 
                    mph. 
PCPN amount.........None. 
Hours of Sun........8. 
Chance of thunder...1 percent. 

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers and a 
                    slight chance of thunderstorms by midnight. 
                    Chance of precipitation 50 percent. 
Min temperature.....57-62. 
   24 hr trend......11 degrees warmer. 
Max humidity........96-100 percent inland to 89 percent at the 
                    shore. 
   24 hr trend......Unchanged. 
20-foot winds.......South 9 to 14 mph with gusts to around 35 mph. 
PCPN amount.........None to 0.18 inch. 
Chance of thunder...19 percent. 

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers 
                    early. Chance of showers 20 percent. 
Max temperature.....70-75. 
Min humidity........50-55 percent. 
20-foot winds.......Southwest 8 to 13 mph shifting to the 
                    northwest 9 to 14 mph by mid afternoon. Gusts 
                    up to 30 mph. 
PCPN amount.........None to 0.01 inch. 
Hours of Sun........7. 
Chance of thunder...10 percent. 

$$
Iron-Dickinson-
Including the cities of Iron River and Iron Mountain
514 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

.TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny. 
Max temperature.....Around 80. 
   24 hr trend......8 degrees warmer. 
Min humidity........41-46 percent. 
   24 hr trend......Unchanged. 
20-foot winds.......South 9 to 14 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. 
PCPN amount.........None. 
Hours of Sun........8. 
Chance of thunder...0 percent. 

.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy then becoming mostly cloudy. A 
                    chance of rain showers and a slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late. Chance of precipitation
                    50 percent. 
Min temperature.....Around 58. 
   24 hr trend......11 degrees warmer. 
Max humidity........97-100 percent. 
   24 hr trend......Unchanged. 
20-foot winds.......South 8 to 13 mph with gusts to around 25 mph. 
PCPN amount.........None to 0.09 inch. 
Chance of thunder...17 percent. 

.SATURDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy. 
Max temperature.....71-76. 
Min humidity........47-52 percent. 
20-foot winds.......West 7 to 12 mph shifting to the 
                    northwest by mid afternoon. Gusts up to 25 mph. 
PCPN amount.........None. 
Hours of Sun........6. 
Chance of thunder...8 percent. 

EXTENDED FORECAST For the U.P.

$$

.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows 43 to 48 inland to around 54 at the
shore. Highs 61 to 66. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to
around 25 mph. 
.MONDAY...Rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Lows 38 to 43 inland to
around 51 at the shore. Highs 66 to 71. Southeast winds 5 to 10 mph
with gusts to around 35 mph. 
.TUESDAY...Rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. Lows 48 to 53 inland to
around 56 at the shore. Highs 66 to 71 inland to around 65 at the
shore. West winds 11 to 16 mph with gusts to around 35 mph. 
.WEDNESDAY...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain
showers. Lows 40 to 45 inland to around 52 at the shore. Highs
around 69. 
.THURSDAY...Partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of rain showers.
Lows 44 to 49 inland to around 53 at the shore. Highs 68 to 73. 

.Outlook for Fri Sep 18 through Thu Sep 24...expect below normal
temperatures and below normal precipitation.