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Areas of Hazardous Weather This Weekend

A series of cold fronts from North Pacific storms will bring periods of gusty winds, low elevation rainfall, and high elevation snow to the Pacific Northwest this weekend into next week. Heavy to excessive rainfall may produce areas of flooding over southern Texas this weekend. Read More >

Subject: GFS EXPERIMENTAL Froude Number for the greens

Model run: BTV_GRID_D2D_GFS_20261106_1200
Using the MB925 to MB850 layer.
Assumes greens are orthogonal to 270 degree winds.

925-850 mb Layer Average Wind/RH. Avg QPF over the greens.
Date   Time        Wind RH% 700 850T QPF
Day mm/dd hhZ Frd# DDFF (%) RH% (C) (in)
=== ===== === ==== ==== === === === ====
Fri 11/06 12Z 0.25 2406  75  20   7 0.00
Fri 11/06 15Z 0.12 2007  72  43   7 0.00
Fri 11/06 18Z 0.15 2204  79  60   7 0.00
Fri 11/06 21Z 0.08 1900  80  60   7 0.00
Sat 11/07 00Z 0.15 0604  83  58   7 0.00
Sat 11/07 03Z 0.17 0506  84  57   7 0.00
Sat 11/07 06Z 0.14 0605  85  70   7 0.00
Sat 11/07 09Z 0.14 0804  90  74   6 0.00
Sat 11/07 12Z 0.17 1006  94  90   6 0.01
Sat 11/07 15Z 0.19 1207  97  95   6 0.04
Sat 11/07 18Z 0.11 1204  99  96   5 0.04
Sat 11/07 21Z 0.05 1000 100  97   4 0.08
Sun 11/08 00Z 0.08 3204 100  96   4 0.09
Sun 11/08 03Z 0.12 3310  99  97   3 0.06
Sun 11/08 06Z 0.17 3316  99  94   2 0.06
Sun 11/08 09Z 0.21 3320  99  94   1 0.04
Sun 11/08 12Z 0.28 3222  99  95   0 0.01
Sun 11/08 15Z 0.34 3220  99  82   0 0.00
Sun 11/08 18Z 0.52 2918  98   9   0 0.00
Sun 11/08 21Z 0.62 2717  85  19   0 0.00
Mon 11/09 00Z 0.74 2621  68  34   1 0.00
Mon 11/09 03Z 0.99 2625  78  70   0 0.00
Mon 11/09 06Z 1.00 2626  88  28   0 0.00
Mon 11/09 09Z 1.01 2523  88  85   0 0.00

Run total areal avg QPF for the greens is: 0.43 inches.

Froude Number (Frd#): 
Frd# < 0.5 Flow is subcritical and blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip backed farther upwind of and up to mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors eastern Champlain Valley, BTV, and Western slopes.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 0.5-1 Flow is subcritical/slow moving/blocked.
         Upslope clouds/precip falls immediately upwind of mtn crest.
         W Upslope snow favors western slopes to the Green Mt. spine including:
         Montgomery,Underhill,Jericho,Bolton,Richmond,Huntington,Lincoln.
         Gap winds possible.
Frd# 1-2 Flow is critical.
         With strong winds, Mountain waves/downslope winds possible.
         Precip falls close to mountain ridge crests and on lee side.
         W Upslope snow favors Green Mt Spine,Jay,Stowe,Waterbury,NE Kingdom.
Froude > 2 Flow is supercritical/unblocked(rapid flow).
         Air flows freely over terrain.
         Persistent upslope snow not favored. Scattered snow showers and flurries.

Relative Humidity (RH): 
         925-850 mb RH > 90% needed for upslope precipitation.
         with 700mb RH > 70% favors upslope snow.
         with 700mb RH > 90% greater amounts of W upslope snow possible.

850mb Temperature (T degC) Westerly Upslope Snow Ratios: (Avg=28:1)
        T > -11       10-15:1
        T -11 to -15  25-35:1
        T < -15       15-20:1