Hot and humid Conditions Expected Tuesday, with Severe Thunderstorms Likely Tuesday evening

High temperatures are expected Tuesday. Heat Advisories are in effect for much of the region from 11 AM to 8 PM Tuesday. Heat index values between 93 and 103 degrees are expected. Take extra precautions when outside. Severe Thunderstorms are likely Tuesday evening after sunset, especially near the International Border. Damaging winds will be the main threat, with large hail and a tornado possible. Read More >

2021: Brooke Taber, Rebecca Duell, John Goff, and Andrea LaRocca. Radar Signatures and Near Storm Environmental Parameters of Severe Thunderstorms across Northern New York and Vermont. NWS Eastern Region Technical Attachment 2021-02 [Available online at https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta/ta2021-02.pdf]
2020: Nichole Hammond. Tropical Climatology for BTV [Available online at https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/research/Tropical%20Climatology%20for%20BTV.pdf]
2020: Caitlin Bristol. The Utility of Maximum Unit Streamflow Data in the Flash Flood Warning Decision Process at the National Weather Service in Burlington, Vermont. [Available online at https://www.weather.gov/btv/The-Utility-of-Maximum-Unit-Streamflow-Data-in-the-Flash-Flood-Warning-Decision-Process-at-the-National-Weather-Service-in-Burlington-Vermont]
2019: Lesley-Ann Dupigny-Giroux, John Goff, John Kilbride, Jeffrey D. Marshall, Sarah Leidinger, Phoebe Fooks, Megan Moir. Improving situational awareness for flash flood forecasting in a small urban catchment by integrating meteorological analysis into a geospatial framework [Available online at https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/research/Improving%20Situational%20Awareness%20for%20Flash%20Flood%20Forecasting%20in%20a%20Small%20Urban%20Catchment%20by%20Integrating%20Meteorological%20Analysis%20into%20a%20Geospatial%20Framework.pdf]
2019: Peter C. Banacos, Gregory A. DeVoir, Barbara Watson, Andrew N. Loconto, David J. Nicosia. R2O; Development of NWS Snow Squall Warnings. [Available online at https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/research/AMS%20R2O%20Conf._Snow%20SquallExtendedAbstract.pdf]
2018: Andrea M. LaRocca. Understanding the Spatial and Temporal Variability of Vermont and Northern New York Severe Weather Climatology 1950-2016. [Available online at https://www.weather.gov/btv/Understanding-the-Spatial-and-Temporal-Variability-of-Vermont-and-Northern-New-York-Severe-Weather-Climatology-1950-2016]
2015: Michael Muccilli. Using the Froude Number to Improve Orographic Snow Forecasts in the Green Mountains of Vermont. NWS Eastern Region Technical Attachment 2015-05 [Available online at "https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta/ta2015-05.pdf]
2014: Peter C. Banacos, Andrew N. Loconto, and Gregory A. DeVoir. Snow Squalls: Forecasting and Hazard Mitigation. Journal of Operational Meteorology, 2 (12), 130-151. [Available online at https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/research/Snow%20Squalls%20Forecasting%20and%20Hazard%20Mitigation.pdf]
2013: Peter C. Banacos. A Composite Study of Snow Squall Environments: Forecasting and Hazard Mitigation. Northeast Regional Operational Workshop XIV [Available online at http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/nrow/NROWXIV/agenda.htm]
2012: Goff, John M., Hanson, Gregory A. Flash Flood Composite Analysis in Vermont and Northern New York. NWS Eastern Region Technical Attachment 2012-03 [Available online at "https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta/ta2012-03.pdf]
2012: Banacos,Peter Charles, Michael L. Ekster, Joseph W. Dellicarpini, Eric J. Lyons. A Multiscale Analysis of the 1 June 2011 Northeast U.S. Severe Weather Outbreak and Associated Springfield, Massachusetts Tornado. E-Journal of Severe Storms Meteorology, Vol 7, No 7 (2012) [Available online at http://www.ejssm.org/ojs/index.php/ejssm/article/view/105]
2011: Banacos, Peter C.. Box and Whisker Plots for Local Climate Datasets: Interpretation and Creation using Excel 2007/2010. NWS Eastern Region Technical Attachment 2011-01 [Available online at "https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta/ta2011-01.pdf]
2011: John Goff. The 2009 Lake Champlain Halloween Gale. 19th U.S.-Canadian Great Lakes Operational Meteorology [Available online at https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/research/The%202009%20Lake%20Champlain%20Halloween%20Gale.pdf]
2011: John M. Goff and Gregory A. Hanson. Flash Flood Composite Analysis in Vermont and Northern New York. Northeast Regional Operational Workshop VIII [Available online at http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/nrow/NROWXIII/Goff.ppt]
2011: John M. Goff. A Brief Overview of Long-Term Snow Climatology for Burlington, VT. BTV Local Study [Available online at https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/research/BTV%20SnowClimo.pdf]
2011: Brooke Taber. Radar Artifacts and Associated Signatures, Along with Impacts of Terrain on Data Quality. BTV Local Study [Available online at https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/research/Radar%20Artifacts%20and%20Associated%20Signatures.pdf]
2010: Brooke Taber. National Weather Service WSR-88D Radar and Wind Farm Impacts. BTV Local Study [Available online at https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/research/National%20Weather%20Service%20Radar%20and%20Wind%20Farm%20Impacts.pdf]
2010: Banacos, Peter C., Michael L. Ekster. The Association of the Elevated Mixed Layer with Significant Severe Weather Events in the Northeastern United States. Weather and Forecasting Volume 25, Issue 4 (August 2010) pp. 1082-1102 [Available online at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2010WAF2222363.1]
2010: Conor Lahiff. A Climatology of Snow-to-Liquid Ratio Across The Burlington, Vermont County Warning Area. 14th Conference on Mountain Meteorology [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/14MountMet/webprogram/Paper170383.html]
2008: Goff, John M.. Multi-Year Examination of Dense Fog at Burlington International Airport. NWS Eastern Region Technical Attachment 2008-03 [Available online at "https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta/ta2008-03.pdf]
2008: Sisson, Paul A., J. Goff, C. Lahiff. Atmospheric forecasting and modeling in the Lake Champlain Basin. LAKE CHAMPLAIN: Our Lake, Our Future, JANUARY 8-9, 2008, Burlington, VT [Available online at https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/research/Atmospheric%20forecasting%20and%20modeling%20in%20the%20Lake%20Champlain%20Basin.pdf]
2007: Eric C. Evenson. A Collaborative Fire Weather Training Endeavor Involving the National Weather Service and the Northeast Compact. Seventh Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/7firenortheast/webprogram/Paper127400.html]
2006: Taber, Brooke. Improving Forecast Techniques and Procedures For Significant Lake Effect Snow Bands Across Northern New York and Vermont. 1st Annual Lake Effect Snow Conference [Available online at https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/research/Improving%20Forecast%20Techniques%20and%20Procedures%20For%20Significant%20Lake%20Effect%20Snow%20Bands%20Across%20Northern%20New%20York%20and%20Vermont.pdf]
2006: Peter C. Banacos. Orographic Forcing, Stable Stratification, and a Labrador Retriever: The 4 March 2006 Snowfall in Northern Vermont. Northeast Regional Operational Workshop VIII [Available online at http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/nrow/nrow8/Banacos.ppt]
2005: Lahiff, Conor T.. Vertically Integrated Liquid Density and Its Associated Hail Size Range Across the Burlington, Vermont County Warning Area. NWS Eastern Region Technical Attachment 2008-03 [Available online at "https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta/ta2005-01.pdf]
2005: Gyakum, J., E. Atallah, P. Sisson, M. Kimball, and A. Roberge. Warm season extreme 20 quantitative precipitation forecasting for the Burlington, VT region. 21st Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/WAFNWP34BC/webprogram/Paper94807.html]
2005: John M. Goff. Multi-Year Examination of Dense Fog at Burlington International Airport. 7th Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Albany, New York [Available online at http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/nrow/nrow7/Goff/presentation.ppt]
2004: Sisson, Paul A., John R. Gyakum. Synoptic-Scale Precursors to Significant Cold-Season Precipitation Events in Burlington, VT. Weather and Forecasting Volume 19, Issue 5 (October 2004) pp. 841-854 [Available online at http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/1520-0434%282004%29019%3C0841%3ASPTSCP%3E2.0.CO%3B2]
2005: Conor Lahiff . Vertically Integrated Liquid Density and Its Associated Hail Size Range across the Burlington, Vermont County Warning Area. Eastern Region Technical Attachment 2005-01 [Available online at "https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta/ta2005-01.pdf]
2004: Goff, John M.. Reliability Trends of the Global Forecast System Model Output Statistical Guidance in the Northeastern US: A Statistical Analysis with Operational Forecasting Applications. NWS Eastern Region Technical Attachment 2005-05 [Available online at "https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta/ta2004-05.pdf]
2004: Evenson, Eric C., Smith, Joshua D.. Utilization of BUFKIT in Incident Command Operations and Its Application in the Local Fire Weather Forecast Process. NWS Eastern Region Technical Attachment 2004-02 [Available online at "https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta/ta2004-02.pdf]
2004: Scott L Whittier, and G. A. Hanson and R. E. Bell. A conceptual model of warm season excessive rainfall used to warn for flooding of 12 June 2002 across northern Vermont. 11th Conference on Mountain Meteorology and the Annual Mesoscale Alpine Program (MAP) [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/11Mountain/webprogram/Paper76866.html & https://ams.confex.com/ams/11Mountain/techprogram/paper_76866.htm]
2004: Sisson, Paul A., D.StJean,E.Evenson,W.Murray,S.Hogan,L. Bosart, D. Keyser, B. Smith. Applying local research to National Weather Service operations-forecasting heavy mountain snowfalls in Vermont and northern New York. 11th Conference on Mountain Meteorology and the Annual Mesoscale Alpine Program [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/11Mountain/webprogram/Paper77024.html]
2004: St.Jean, Daniel,P.Sisson,L.Bosart,D.Keyser,B.Smith. Characteristics of Upslope Snowfall Events in Northern New York State and Northern Vermont: Diagnosticts and Model Simulations of Several Northwest-Flow Cases. 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/84Annual/techprogram/paper_71093.htm]
2004: Atkins,Nolan T.,and B. Taber. Mesoscale Analysis of the Cavendish, VT Bow-Echo Tornado on 21 July 2003. Preprints, 22nd Conference on Severe Local Storms Hyannis, MA, Amer. Meteor. Soc. [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/11aram22sls/webprogram/Paper81557.html]
2004: John R. Gyakum, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and D. Durnford, P. J. Roebber, P. A. Sisson, and R. McTaggart-Cowan. The role of frontogenesis in the production of heavy cold-season precipitation events in the Saint Lawrence River valley . The Fred Sanders Symposium [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/84Annual/webprogram/Paper73840.html]
2004: Ron McTaggart-Cowan, McGill University, Montreal, QC, Canada; and J. Gyakum and P. Sisson. Using PV concepts to diagnose a poorly-predicted heavy snow band in New England (6-7 January 2003). 20th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/84Annual/webprogram/Paper72136.html]
2004: Gregory Hanson and Paul Sisson. 28 August 2004 Flash Flood in Addison County Vermont. "6th Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Albany, New York" [Available online at http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/nrow/NROW6/Hanson.ppt]
2004: Margaret Kimball, John R. Gyakum, and Eyad Attallah, Paul Sisson. Warm Season Extreme Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting for the Burlington, Vermont Region". "6th Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Albany, New York [Available online at http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/nrow/NROW6/atallah.ppt]
2003: Evenson, Eric C., Smith, St. Jean, Daniel P., Smith, Joshua D.. Multiscale Examination of Fire Occurrence In Vermont. NWS Eastern Region Technical Attachment 2003-02 [Available online at "https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta/ta2003-02.pdf]
2003: Whittier, Scott L.,G. A. Hanson and R. E. Bell. A Conceptual Model of Warm Season Excessive Rainfall Used to Warn for Flooding on 12 June 2002 Across Northern Vermont. Preprints,11th Conference on Mountain Meteorology and the Annual Mesoscale Alpine Program (MAP), N. Conway, NH, Amer. Meteor. Soc.
2003: Evenson, Eric C.. Characteristic Composite Charts Associated with Peak Fire Season in Vermont. Preprints, 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology,Orlando, FL, Amer. Meteor. Soc. [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/FIRE2003/techprogram/paper_65449.htm]
2003: Eric C. Evenson. Characteristic Composite Charts Associated With Peak Fire Season In Vermont. 5th Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/FIRE2003/webprogram/Paper65449.html]
2003: John Goff. Reliability Trends of the Global Forecast System Model Output Statistical Guidance in the Northeastern US: A Statistical Analysis with Operational Forecasting Applications. 5th Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Albany, New York [Available online at http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/nrow/nrow5/NROW5_pres/Reliability.ppt]
2002: St. Jean, Daniel,Paul Sisson. Characteristics of Upslope Snowfall Events in Northern New York State and Northern Vermont: Diagnostics and Model Simulations of Several Northwest-flow Cases . 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/SLS_WAF_NWP/webprogram/Paper46823.html]
2002: Gyakum, John R., and R. McTaggart-Cowan, P. A. Sisson, G. Toth, P. Lewis, and J. K. Parker. A study of heavy precipitation occurring in continental and marine environments. 19th Conf. on weather Analysis and Forecasting [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/SLS_WAF_NWP/webprogram/Paper46825.html]
2002: Daniel P. St. Jean and Paul A. Sisson. Characteristics of Upslope Snowfall Events in Northern New York State and Northern Vermont: Diagnostics and Model Simulations of Several Northwest-flow Cases. 4th Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Albany, New York [Available online at http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/nrow/nrow4/Characteristics%20of%20Upslope%20Snowfall%20Events%20in%20Northern%20New%20Y.ppt]
2002: Paul A. Sisson. A Case Study of Heavy Precipitation Occurring in a Continental Environment. "4th Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Albany, New York" [Available online at http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/nrow/nrow4/A%20Study%20of%20Heavy%20Precipitation%20Occurring%20in%20Continental%20and.ppt]
2002: Brandon Smith, Lance F. Bosart, and Daniel Keyser Daniel P. St. Jean. Cutoff Cyclones: A Global and Regional Climatology (1948-2001) and Two Case Studies. "4th Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Albany, New York [Available online at http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/nrow/nrow4/cutoff%20cyclones1.ppt]
2001: James E. Lee, NOAA/NWSFO, Taunton, MA; and J. W. Cannon, J. A. Ronco, F. Colby, J. Schoof, P. Sisson, C. Mcgill, J. Edson, L. Dupigny-Giroux, N. T. Atkins, D. Taylor, B. Keim, H. Yang, C. Sawyer, M. Michaels, and J. S. Tongue. The New England Weather Observation Network: A 21st Century Vision for Environmental Monitoring and Science Education in the New England States. 17th International Conference on Interactive Information and Processing Systems (IIPS) for Meteorology, Oceanography, and Hydrology [Available online at https://ams.confex.com/ams/annual2001/webprogram/Paper18699.html]
2001: Daniel P. St. Jean. Characteristics of Cool Season Cutoff Lows in the Northeastern United States: Four Northwest-Flow Events in Northern New York State and Northern Vermont. Third Northeast Regional Operational Workshop Albany, New York [Available online at http://cstar.cestm.albany.edu/nrow/nrow4/Characteristics%20of%20Upslope%20Snowfall%20Events%20in%20Northern%20New%20Y.ppt]
2000: Tardy, Alexander. Lake Effect and Lake Enhanced Snow in the Champlain Valley of Vermont. NWS Eastern Region Technical Attachment 2000-05 [Available online at "https://www.weather.gov/media/erh/ta/ta2000-05.pdf]
2000: Evenson, Eric C.. Understanding the Conditions that Affect Model Instability Fields. Preprints, Northeast Operational Workshop, Albany, NY, National Weather Service [Available online at https://www.weather.gov/media/btv/research/Understanding%20The%20Conditions%20That%20Affect%20Model%20Instability%20Fields.pdf]
1990: Mamrosh, Richard D. . The Prediction of Lake-Enhanced Snow Squalls in the Champlain Valley of Vermont. NWS Eastern Region Technical Attachment 90-8C [Available online at http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/noaa_documents/NWS/NWS_ER/Eastern_Region_Tech_Attachment/TA_1990-8C.pdf]