Major Winter Storm Ongoing in the Upper Midwest; Severe Weather Tonight from the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley

A major winter storm will continue to bring blizzard conditions, heavy snowfall, icing, and strong winds through Monday across the Upper Midwest and Upper Great Lakes. A line of storms will be capable of producing widespread damaging winds, tornadoes, and some large hail from the Mid-South to the Ohio Valley and the Southeast through tonight, moving into the Mid-Atlantic Monday. Read More >

NZUS99 KBUF 152352
GLFLOT

Experimental Tabular Open Lake Forecast for Lake Ontario
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
752 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.

.SYNOPSIS...A 29.5 inch surface low over the mid-Mississippi Valley
will track northeastward and deepen to 28.9 inches just to the west
of the lake Monday morning, before pushing northeastward across
Quebec through Tuesday. This low will sweep a strong cold front
across the lake Monday afternoon, with a 30.4 inch high building
across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Tuesday. The high will then
shift east of the lake Wednesday and reach the East Coast by
Wednesday evening. A 30.2 inch high will move into the Great Lakes
region Thursday.

LOZ062-160800-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
752 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

.Overnight...
Weather.............Mostly cloudy.
Sfc winds...........Southeast to 30 knots.
100-ft winds........Southeast gales to 35 knots.
Sig waves...........6 to 9 feet.
Ocnl waves..........Around 11 feet.

.MONDAY...
Weather.............Mostly cloudy, then showers likely in the
                              afternoon.
Sfc winds...........Southeast to 30 knots becoming southwest gales
                              to 35 knots in the afternoon.
100-ft winds........Southeast gales to 35 knots becoming southwest
                              at 45 knots in the afternoon.
Sig waves...........6 to 9 feet building to 10 to 14 feet in the
                              afternoon.
Ocnl waves..........Around 11 feet building to around 18 feet in
                              the afternoon.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Weather.............Mostly cloudy with chance of snow showers.
Sfc winds...........Southwest gales to 45 knots.
100-ft winds........Southwest storm force winds to 55 knots.
Sig waves...........14 to 18 feet.
Ocnl waves..........Around 21 feet.

.TUESDAY...
Weather.............Mostly cloudy.
Sfc winds...........West gales to 40 knots.
100-ft winds........West storm force winds to 50 knots.
Sig waves...........12 to 16 feet.
Ocnl waves..........Around 21 feet.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Weather.............Mostly cloudy.
Sfc winds...........West to 30 knots decreasing to 15 to 20 knots
                              after midnight.
100-ft winds........West gales to 35 knots decreasing to 20 to 25
                              knots after midnight.
Sig waves...........8 to 12 feet.
Ocnl waves..........Around 13 feet.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5......
.WEDNESDAY...West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
.THURSDAY...Chance of showers in the afternoon and evening. South
winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
.FRIDAY...Chance of showers. West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves
4 to 6 feet.

$$

LOZ063>065-160800-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
752 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING...

.Overnight...
Weather.............Mostly cloudy.
Sfc winds...........Southeast gales to 35 knots.
100-ft winds........Southeast gales to 45 knots.
Sig waves...........10 to 14 feet.
Ocnl waves..........Around 16 feet.

.MONDAY...
Weather.............Partly sunny, then showers in the afternoon.
Sfc winds...........Southeast gales to 35 knots.
100-ft winds........Southeast gales to 45 knots.
Sig waves...........8 to 12 feet.
Ocnl waves..........Around 15 feet.

.MONDAY NIGHT...
Weather.............Snow showers, then mostly cloudy with chance of
                              snow showers after midnight.
Sfc winds...........West gales to 40 knots.
100-ft winds........West storm force winds to 50 knots.
Sig waves...........12 to 16 feet building to 15 to 20 feet after
                              midnight.
Ocnl waves..........Around 19 feet building to around 25 feet after
                              midnight.

.TUESDAY...
Weather.............Mostly cloudy with chance of snow showers.
Sfc winds...........West gales to 45 knots.
100-ft winds........West storm force winds to 55 knots.
Sig waves...........15 to 20 feet.
Ocnl waves..........Around 26 feet.

.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Weather.............Mostly cloudy with chance of snow showers.
Sfc winds...........West gales to 35 knots decreasing to 20 to 25
                              knots after midnight.
100-ft winds........West gales to 45 knots decreasing to 30 knots
                              after midnight.
Sig waves...........14 to 18 feet subsiding to 8 to 12 feet after
                              midnight.
Ocnl waves..........Around 22 feet subsiding to around 14 feet
                              after midnight.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5......
.WEDNESDAY...Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
.THURSDAY...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
.FRIDAY...Chance of showers. West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves
4 to 6 feet.

$$

LOZ061-160800-
MAFOR 1603/
ONTARIO WEST 1/2...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT...14330 11546 11556
11557 11657. Waves 5 to 8 feet overnight. Waves 5 to 9 feet
building to 9 to 12 feet Monday. Waves 10 to 13 feet Monday
evening.

ONTARIO EAST 1/2 13350 11340 11440 11546 11646 11647. A chance of
thunderstorms Monday evening. Waves 7 to 11 feet overnight. Waves
6 to 10 feet Monday. Waves 9 to 12 feet Monday evening.

$$