Severe Thunderstorms in the Central U.S.; Record Temperatures Likely for Eastern U.S.

Several rounds of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain are forecast from the southern Plains to the Midwest through Friday. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and tornadoes are possible. A significant warm-up is expected for much of the Eastern U.S. into next week. Several daily record temperature records are likely to be broken. Fire weather concerns will return to the central/southern High Plains. Read More >

NZUS99 KBUF 050252
GLFLOT

Experimental Tabular Open Lake Forecast for Lake Ontario
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
952 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.

.SYNOPSIS...A 30.3 inch high over southern New England this evening,
will slide east off the coast tonight. A 29.9 inch low will then
track from the mid Mississippi Valley tonight to just south of Lake
Erie Thursday, across Pennsylvania Thursday night, then off the
Jersey coast Friday while weakening to 30.1 inches. Another 29.6
inch low is then forecast to lift across the upper Great Lakes
Saturday, with its trailing cold front crossing the lake Saturday
night. A large 30.1 inch high will then move from the lower Ohio
Valley to the Mid Atlantic region Sunday and Monday while ridging
north across the lake.

LOZ062-063-050900-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
952 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

.Overnight...
Weather.............Partly cloudy, then mostly cloudy with patchy
                              fog after midnight.
Sfc winds...........East 5 to 10 knots.
100-ft winds........East 10 to 15 knots.
Sig waves...........1 to 3 feet.

.THURSDAY...
Weather.............Cloudy, then chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sfc winds...........Northeast 20 to 25 knots.
100-ft winds........Northeast to 30 knots.
Sig waves...........5 to 7 feet.
Ocnl waves..........Around 9 feet.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Weather.............Rain and light freezing rain, then cloudy with
                              chance of rain and light freezing rain after
                              midnight.
Sfc winds...........Northeast to 30 knots.
100-ft winds........Northeast gales to 35 knots.
Sig waves...........6 to 9 feet.
Ocnl waves..........Around 12 feet.

.FRIDAY...
Weather.............Mostly cloudy.
Sfc winds...........East 10 to 15 knots.
100-ft winds........East 15 to 20 knots.
Sig waves...........4 to 6 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the
                              afternoon.
Ocnl waves..........Around 8 feet subsiding to around 5 feet in the
                              afternoon.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Weather.............Mostly cloudy, then showers likely after
                              midnight.
Sfc winds...........East 5 to 10 knots increasing to south 15 to 20
                              knots after midnight.
100-ft winds........East 10 to 15 knots increasing to south 20 to
                              25 knots after midnight.
Sig waves...........2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 5 feet after
                              midnight.
Ocnl waves..........Around 5 feet building to around 7 feet after
                              midnight.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5......
.SATURDAY...Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then showers
in the afternoon. South winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
.SUNDAY...Breezy. Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 5 to
7 feet.
.MONDAY...Breezy. Southwest winds 20 to 25 knots. Waves 4 to
6 feet.

$$

LOZ064-065-050900-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
952 PM EST Wed Mar 4 2026

.Overnight...
Weather.............Mostly cloudy.
Sfc winds...........East 5 to 10 knots.
100-ft winds........East 10 to 15 knots.
Sig waves...........2 feet or less.

.THURSDAY...
Weather.............Mostly cloudy, then chance of rain in the
                              afternoon.
Sfc winds...........Northeast 10 to 15 knots increasing to 20 to 25
                              knots in the afternoon.
100-ft winds........Northeast 15 to 20 knots increasing to 30 knots
                              in the afternoon.
Sig waves...........3 to 5 feet.
Ocnl waves..........Around 6 feet.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
Weather.............Rain with light freezing rain likely, then rain
                              and light freezing rain likely after midnight.
Sfc winds...........Northeast 20 to 25 knots.
100-ft winds........Northeast to 30 knots.
Sig waves...........4 to 6 feet.
Ocnl waves..........Around 7 feet.

.FRIDAY...
Weather.............Mostly cloudy.
Sfc winds...........East 15 to 20 knots.
100-ft winds........East 20 to 25 knots.
Sig waves...........3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the
                              afternoon.
Ocnl waves..........Around 5 feet in the morning.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...
Weather.............Mostly cloudy, then showers likely after
                              midnight.
Sfc winds...........Southeast 20 to 25 knots.
100-ft winds........Southeast to 30 knots.
Sig waves...........3 to 5 feet.
Ocnl waves..........Around 7 feet.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5......
.SATURDAY...Breezy. Showers likely in the morning, then showers
in the afternoon. chance of showers in the evening. South winds
20 to 25 knots. Waves 5 to 7 feet.
.SUNDAY...West winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
.MONDAY...South winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 4 to 6 feet.

$$

LOZ061-050900-
MAFOR 0504/
ONTARIO WEST 1/2 11200 11100 11110 11220 12130 12136. Waves 1
foot or less overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 5 to 7 feet
Thursday. Waves 5 to 8 feet Thursday evening.

ONTARIO EAST 1/2 12200 11110 12120 12130 11136. Waves 1 foot or
less overnight. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 6 feet
Thursday. Waves 4 to 7 feet Thursday evening.

$$